Friday, August 29, 2008

China's Stocks Climb for Second Day; Baoshan, Banks Advance

By Chua Kong Ho

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- China stocks rose, driving the benchmark index to its first weekly advance in five, as steelmakers and banks climbed after Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. and Bank of China Ltd. posted profit that beat analysts' estimates.

Baoshan, China's largest steelmaker, jumped almost 4 percent, the biggest gain in a week, and Bank of China, the nation's No. 3 lender, added 1.4 percent. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd. rose 1.1 percent after forecasting nine-month earnings may double on increased production and prices.

The CSI 300 Index, which tracks yuan-denominated shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, added 73.96, or 3.2 percent, to 2,409.82 at 2:01 p.m. local time, bring this week's gain to 0.3 percent. The CSI 300, down 55 percent this year, is the second- worst performing among the 89 primary indexes tracked by Bloomberg, as government measures to tackle inflation and record oil and commodity prices eroded profits.

``It's probably still too early to buy aggressively into the market but after the declines this year, there's not as much downside,'' said Michelle Qi, Shanghai-based portfolio manager at Bank of Communications Schroder Fund Management, which oversees about $790 million.

Chinese corporate profits rose 23 percent in the first half, excluding oil and power companies, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report yesterday. That compares with a 31 percent growth in profits in 2007.

Baoshan, Chenming

Baoshan gained 0.26 yuan to 6.54 yuan, the second-biggest contributor to the CSI 300's advance. The Shanghai-based steelmaker said second-quarter profit rose 20 percent to 5.39 billion yuan ($790 million), according to figures derived from first-half numbers reported yesterday. This compares with a median forecast of 4.9 billion yuan in a Bloomberg survey. Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co., China's biggest maker of the rust- resistant alloy, gained 4.2 percent to 7.76 yuan.

Bank of China advanced 0.04 yuan to 3.69. Second-quarter profit rose 15 percent to 20.5 billion yuan, the lender said. That beat the 41.2 billion yuan average estimate of seven analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

Bank of Communications Co., which reported a record gain in first-half income this week, rose 1.9 percent to 7.60 yuan. Financial companies accounted for 37 percent of the index's advance today.

Shandong Chenming rose 1.1 percent to 9.02 yuan. First-half profit more than doubled to 947.4 million yuan, the company said.

The Shanghai Composite Index added 1.8 percent to 2,392.89 and the Shenzhen Composite Index gained 2 percent to 655.35.

The following stocks also rose in China. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names:

Sichuan New Hope Agribusiness Co. (000876 CH), an animal- feed producer, rose 0.53 yuan, or 7.1 percent, to 8.01, the most since Aug. 20, after first-half income climbed 12 percent to 239.1 million yuan.

Youngor Group Co. (600177 CH), a shirt maker, gained 0.54 yuan, or 5.7 percent, to 10.05, the most in a week, after first- half profit rose 49 percent to 1.94 billion yuan.

To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at kchua6@bloomberg.net

Asian Stocks Rise on U.S. Growth Outlook; Toyota, Nintendo Gain

By Chen Shiyin and Shani Raja

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks gained the most in four months, led by automakers and technology companies, after the U.S. economy grew faster than estimated, bolstering optimism that exporters' earnings will improve.

Toyota Motor Corp., which gets more than a third of its sales from North America, added 3.4 percent. Nintendo Co. soared 8.4 percent after the maker of the Wii video-game console raised its profit forecast. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. and Bank of China Ltd. both advanced more than 2 percent after the companies posted profits that topped analyst estimates.

``The U.S. economy just refuses to roll over, despite the most dire predictions,'' said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage the equivalent of about $1.8 billion at Platypus Asset Management in Sydney. ``Such a strong performance from the world's largest economy is a big positive. It helps repair the fragile sentiment and, more fundamentally, supports the global economy.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.1 percent to 125.03 as of 3:20 p.m. in Tokyo, paring its August decline to 5.5 percent and set for its biggest rally since April 21. The benchmark index is up 2.8 percent this week.

The regional measure has dropped 21 percent this year as the world's largest financial companies posted writedowns and credit losses of more than $500 billion, and inflation soared.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 2.4 percent to 13,072.87. JFE Holdings Inc., Japan's No. 2 steelmaker, jumped after the nation's trade ministry said industrial production unexpectedly rebounded. Stock indexes advanced in most regional markets open for trading.

Advances were capped after Fujifilm Holdings Corp. cut its full-year forecast, sending the shares to their largest drop in 27 years.

Economic Growth

U.S. stocks climbed the most in three weeks after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures fell 0.2 percent today on concern a report today will show consumer spending slowed in July.

Toyota, Japan's largest automaker that yesterday cut its forecast for 2009 vehicle sales growth, rose 160 yen to 4,930. Canon Inc., the world's biggest maker of digital cameras, added 3.3 percent to 4,950 yen. Westfield Group, the owner of 55 U.S. shopping malls, advanced 1.7 percent to A$17.29.

The U.S. government's initial estimate of economic growth was 1.9 percent last month and economists in a Bloomberg survey on average projected 2.7 percent. The data follows an unexpected advance in durable goods orders that helped boost U.S. stocks this week.

Reversing the Headwinds

``If you believe GDP's not going to worsen from this point onwards, the implication is that the U.S. will avoid going into a deep recession,'' said Jason Teh, who helps manage the equivalent of $5.7 billion at Investors Mutual Ltd. in Sydney. ``The hope is that the headwinds the global economy has been facing will be reversed when the U.S. pulls the whole world out from its demise.''

Nintendo jumped 4,000 yen to 51,800 in Osaka, extending advances after the company raised its full-year net income estimate by 26 percent, citing a weaker yen and sales of its DS and Wii players.

Japan's factory output increased 0.9 percent in July from the previous month, when it fell 2.2 percent, the government said today. The median estimate of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.3 percent decline.

JFE surged 4.7 percent to 4,660 yen, its largest gain since July 14. Nippon Steel Corp., the world's second-largest steelmaker, gained 5.4 percent to 523 yen. Komatsu Ltd., the world's second-largest maker of earthmovers, rose 3.8 percent to 2,315 yen, halting a three-day, 6.3 percent decline.

Nisshinbo, Baoshan

Nisshinbo Industries Inc. soared 10 percent to 1,213 yen, the largest rally in a year, after the maker of textiles, chemicals and machine tools said it will retire part of its shares. The company also said it plans to strengthen its solar and battery-related operations in Japan to meet growing demand.

Baoshan Iron & Steel added 0.28 yuan, or 4.5 percent, to 6.56 after saying second-quarter profit rose 20 percent to record 5.39 billion yuan ($789 million), helped by higher prices and demand for automobile sheets and ship plates. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had a median estimate of 4.9 billion yuan.

Bank of China rose 8 cents, or 2.4 percent, to HK$3.40 in Hong Kong, after saying yesterday net income increased 43 percent in the first half to 42.2 billion yuan, beating the 41.2 billion yuan average estimate of analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

The bank's 66 percent-owned unit, BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd., slumped 3.7 percent to HK$17.44 after its earnings fell 5 percent yesterday to HK$7.09 billion ($908 million) and Credit Suisse Group cut its share price target by 12 percent to HK$22.

Fujifilm, Doosan

Fujifilm Holdings, the world's biggest maker of liquid- crystal display film, slumped 12 percent to 3,030 yen, its largest decline since September 1981. The company said yesterday net income for the year ending March 31 will be 80 billion yen ($734 million), down from a previous estimate of 110 billion yen.

Doosan Infracore Co. plunged 15 percent to 21,250 won, the biggest retreat on MSCI's Asian index. The company said yesterday that it and an affiliate will inject a total of $1 billion into its Bobcat unit.

Merrill Lynch & Co. cut its rating on Doosan Infracore to ``underperform'' from ``buy,'' saying the ``sudden'' decision raises concerns about the management's credibility.

To contact the reporter for this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.

Mosaid Technologies, Tundra Semiconductor: Canada Stock Preview

By John Kipphoff

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes in Canadian trading tomorrow. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are from the previous close.

The Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index added 1.6 percent to 13,750.48.

Mosaid Technologies Inc. (MSD CN): The Ottawa-based semiconductor designer forecast fiscal second-quarter 2009 profit in the range of 29 cents to 33 cents a share before one- time items, 26 percent less than estimated by four analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The shares rose 1.7 percent to C$15.85.

Tundra Semiconductor Corp. (TUN CN): The company, another Ottawa-based Canadian semiconductor maker, forecast 38 percent less adjusted second-quarter per-share profit than analysts in a Bloomberg poll. The shares added 0.3 percent to C$3.70.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Kipphoff in Toronto at jkipphoff@bloomberg.net.

Read more...

Most European Stocks Rise on Earnings; U.S. Futures Decline

By Adam Haigh

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Most European stocks rose and Asian shares gained after Carrefour SA and PPR SA reported earnings that topped analysts' estimates and Nintendo Co. raised its profit forecast. U.S. index futures declined.

Carrefour, the world's second-biggest retailer, jumped 5.1 percent, while PPR, the retailer that owns Gucci, climbed 3.8 percent. Nintendo, the maker of Wii video-game console, soared 6.3 percent in Tokyo. Carmakers and technology stocks declined, leaving Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index little changed.

The Stoxx 600 slipped less than 0.1 percent to 287.06 at 8:31 a.m., with about six stocks rising for every five that declined. The index has gained 1.2 percent this month. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 0.2 percent before a report that probably will show consumer spending slowed in July. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 2 percent.

Stocks in the U.S. rallied the most in three weeks yesterday after growth in exports helped the economy expand faster than estimated in the second quarter.

Exporters and banks led a rally in European stocks yesterday that erased this month's losses in the Stoxx 600 after the U.S. economic report signaled businesses are weathering higher inflation and $512 billion in credit-related losses. The regional index has gained 1.2 percent so far in August, headed for its first advance in four months.

Carrefour, PPR

Carrefour jumped 5.1 percent to 35.43 euros. First-half net income from recurring operations totaled 750 million euros, beating the 743 million-euro median of seven analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

PPR climbed 3.8 percent to 79.30 euros after saying first- half profit more than doubled on demand for luxury goods and a gain from selling YSL Beaute. Net income climbed to 779 million euros ($1.15 billion), beating the 327 million-euro median estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Nintendo jumped 3,000 yen to 50,800 in Osaka, extending gains after the company raised its full-year net income estimate by 26 percent.

JFE Holdings Inc., Japan's No. 2 steelmaker, jumped after the nation's trade ministry said industrial production unexpectedly rebounded.

Japan's factory output increased 0.9 percent in July from the previous month, when it fell 2.2 percent, the government said today. The median estimate of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.3 percent decline.

Daimler, ASML

Daimler AG, the world's second-largest luxury carmaker, lost 1.2 percent to 39.92 euros. PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe's second-biggest carmaker,

Merrill Lynch & Co. downgraded Peugeot to ``underweight'' from ``neutral,'' saying the company may have to reduce its 2008 operating profit targets as growth slows.

Crude oil is headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost two months as producers evacuated rigs ahead of Gustav, forecast to become the worst Gulf of Mexico hurricane since Katrina. Crude today climbed as much as $1.58, or 1.4 percent, to $117.17 in New York.

Technology stocks declined after Dell Inc., the world's second-biggest maker of personal computers, said the U.S. slump in technology spending has moved to Western Europe and some Asian countries.

ASML Holding NV, Europe's largest manufacturer of semiconductor equipment, fell 1.5 percent to 16.37 euros. STMicroelectronics NV, Europe's biggest chipmaker, retreated 1.5 percent to 8.94 euros.

Dell dropped 10 percent to $22.67 in German trading.

Bouygues

Bouygues SA added 1.8 percent to 41.90 euros after the world's second-biggest construction company reported second- quarter profit net income of 477 million, more than the 466 million euros estimated in a Bloomberg survey. Bouygues raised its full-year sales target to 32.5 billion euros, from 32.4 billion euros previously.

Profit among companies in the Stoxx 600 will decline 2 percent on average in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's down from 11 percent growth forecast at the start of 2008, the data show.

L'Oreal SA fell 1.5 percent to 68.78 euros. The world's largest cosmetics maker said first-half profit rose 6.8 percent, the slowest growth in three years, as European and U.S. shoppers pared spending on makeup and perfumes.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net

Read more...

Atacocha, Brasil Telecom, Wal-Mart Mexico: Latin Equity Preview

By [bn:PRSN=1] William Freebairn [] and Paulo Winterstein

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes today in Latin America trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are from the previous close. Preferred shares are usually the most-traded class of stock in Brazil.

The MSCI Latin America Index rose 1.3 percent yesterday to 4,032.65.

Argentina

Telecom Argentina SA (TECO2 AF): Argentina's second-largest phone company said Argo Fund Ltd., a U.S. investment fund, didn't appeal a ruling blocking its legal claims against Telecom Argentina. The period to appeal the New York court ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court expired Aug. 27, Telecom Argentina said in a filing with regulators yesterday. Telecom Argentina rose 0.9 percent to 8.25 pesos.

Brazil

Brasil Telecom Participacoes SA (BRTP4 BS): The Brazilian phone company being bought by Telemar Participacoes SA approved the creation of a subsidiary in Colombia. The board of the Brasilia-based company also approved the restructuring of its Internet unit, without giving further detail in a filing posted yesterday on Brazil's securities regulator Web site yesterday. Brasil Telecom rose 1 percent to 21.30 reais.

Fertilizantes Fosfatados SA (FFTL4 BS) and Fertilizantes Heringer SA (FHER3 BS): Brazil's government eliminated its 4 percent import tariff on phosphoric and sulfuric acid and a 10 percent import tariff on dicalcium phosphate, chemicals used in the manufacture of fertilizers and animal feed, the Ministry of Agriculture said in a statement yesterday. Fertilizantes Fosfatados SA, Brazil's biggest fertilizer maker by market value, fell 1.6 percent to 92.50 reais. Fertilizantes Heringer, Brazil's third biggest publicly listed fertilizer maker, rose 2.3 percent to 18.83 reais.

Mexico

Bolsa Mexicana de Valores SAB (BOLSA MM): The operator of Mexico's only stock exchange will change rules next week permitting more stocks to be traded short and for the accounts of brokers. The exchange will announce which company stocks will be newly eligible for those types of trades today, Bolsa Mexicana said in a statement e-mailed yesterday. Bolsa Mexicana rose 1 percent to 11.94 pesos.

Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB (WALMEXV MM): Mexico's biggest retailer relies on non-food discretionary items for much of its sales, likely resulting in ``weak'' August revenue, Credit Suisse Group AG said in a research report yesterday. Wal-Mart de Mexico may say sales at stores open a year or more increased 5.5 percent from a year earlier, analysts led by Tufic Salem wrote. Walmex, as the company is known, is scheduled to report August sales Sept. 4, according to its Web site. Walmex rose 0.9 percent to 38.13 pesos.

Peru

Cia. Minera Atacocha (CMA/C PE): Peru's fifth-largest zinc producer said shareholders may sell up to a 50 percent stake in the company as part of a possible takeover attempt. A group of shareholders is negotiating with a third party that was not identified by Lima-based Atacocha in a filing with Peru's securities regulator yesterday. Atacocha rose 12 percent to 6 soles.

To contact the reporter on this story: William Freebairn in Mexico City at wfreebairn@bloomberg.net; Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net.

Read more...

Dell, Novell Fall on Profit; PetSmart Rises: U.S. After-Hours

By Fabio Alves

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Dell Inc. declined in extended U.S. trading after the world's second-largest personal-computer maker posted a profit that trailed analysts' estimates.

Dell dropped 9.2 percent to $22.90 at 4:37 p.m. in New York. The company said second-quarter net income fell 17 percent from a year earlier to $616 million, or 31 cents a share. The computer maker also said a slowdown in technology spending is expanding into Europe and Asia.

Novell Inc. slipped 2.5 percent to $5.86. The second- largest U.S. seller of Linux software reported a wider third- quarter loss because of a charge related to its investments. The net loss of $15.1 million, or 4 cents a share, compared with a loss of $3.68 million, or 1 cent, a year earlier.

PetSmart Inc. gained 4.4 percent to $25.49. The largest U.S. pet store chain posted second-quarter profit that topped analysts' estimates by 5.6 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

September futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 0.1 point to 1,297.8 while Nasdaq-100 Index futures added 2 to 1,907.5.

U.S. stocks rose the most in three weeks in regular trading after growth in exports helped the economy expand faster than estimated in the second quarter.

The S&P 500 added 19.02 points, or 1.5 percent, to 1,300.68, with 9 of its 10 main industry groups gaining. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 212.67, or 1.9 percent, to 11,715.18. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 29.18 to 2,411.64. More than five stocks rose for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fabio Alves in New York at falves3@bloomberg.net.

Read more...

Technical Analysis Daily: EUR/USD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by iFOREX.bg | Aug 29 08 05:47 GMT |

EUR/USD 1.4758

EUR/USD Open 1.4786 High 1.4804 Low 1.4677 Close 1.4708

The Euro continued descending significantly yesterday against the US Dollar from Thursday's top 1.4804 to the bottom 1.4677, which are the first resistance and support levels respectively for the currency couple today. The currency couple still remains within this week's range 1.4580 - 1.4803. If the negative trend is renewed as we expect for today, next support is expected at 1.4600, followed by 1.4510. In upward direction next resistance for today is expected at 1.4875, the break of which would lead to next target 1.4940.

Technical resistance levels: 1.4805 1.4875 1.4940
Technical support levels: 1.4675 1.4600 1.4510

Trading range: 1.4770 - 1.4705

Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.4758 SL 1.4788 TP 1.4718

iFOREX.bg Forecasts and Trading Signals
http://www.zifx.com

Wakeup Call: US GDP Taking Everybody By Surprise... But Will It Be Revised Down?

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Aug 29 08 06:41 GMT |

Stocks went higher on the GDP figures, but FX and Fixed Income didn't react too much.

Overnight News Bullets

UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) out at 7.3% as expected.
UK Nat'wide House Prices MoM/YoY (Aug) out at -1.9%/-10.5% vs. -1.5%/-9.6% expected.
SZ Employment Level (2Q) out at 3.924M vs. 3.911M expected.
SW Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Jul) out at -0.5%/1.3% vs. -0.5%/1.4% expected.
GE Unemployment Change (Aug) out at -40K vs. -10K expected.
GE Unemployment Rate (Aug) out at 7.6% vs. 7.8% expected.
NO Unemployment Rate (Aug) out at 1.8% as expected.
CA Current Account (2Q) out at $6.8B vs. $8.0B expected.
US GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q P) out at 3.3% vs. 2.7% expected.
US Personal Consumption (2Q P) out at 1.7% vs. 1.6% expected.
US GDP Price Index (2Q P) out at 1.2% vs. 1.1% expected.
US Core PCE QoQ (2Q P) out at 2.1% as expected.
US Initial Jobless Claims out at 425K as expected.
US Continuing Claims 3423K vs. 3400K expected.
US EIA Natural Gas Storage out at 102 vs. 84 expected.
NZ Building Permits MoM (Jul) out at 4.7% vs. -20.1% prior.
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) out at -36 vs. -41 expected.
JN Jobless Rate (Jul) out at 4.0% vs. 4.1% expected.
JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio (Jul) out at 4.0% vs. 4.1% expected.
JN Household Spending YoY (Jul) out at -0.5% vs. -1.8% expected.
JN National CPI YoY (Jul) out at 2.3% vs. 2.2% expected.
JN Industrial Production MoM/YoY (Jul P) out at 0.9%/2.0% vs. -0.3%/0.6% expected.
JN Large Retailers' Sales (Jul) out at -0.7% vs. -1.4% expected.
JN Retail Trade MoM/YoY (Jul) out at 0.0%/1.9% vs. -0.1%/1.3% expected.
AU Private Sector Credit MoM/YoY (Jul) out at 0.5%/11.2% vs. 0.5%/11% expected.
JN Small Business Confidence (Aug) out at 41.4 vs. 38.0 expected.

Markets

FX: USD-crosses ranging despite the positive US GDP figures yesterday.
Fixed Income: 10-year contracts not reacting to the GDP figures. JGB's up despite strong Japanese figures.
Stocks: Good sized gains (1-2%) in all regions and sectors.
Commodities: Precious metals edging higher. Crude Oil also higher, supported by Hurricane Gustav.

O/N Data Heat map:

EU	US	JP	UK	SZ	AU	CA	NZ	NO	SE	FR
	+	+	-	+		-

Calendar

Today's Highlights:

Time (GMT)	Region	Release	Consensus
07:30	SW	Current Account (2Q)	81.1B
08:00	NO	Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Jul)	0.1%/2.6%
09:00	EC	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (Jul)	7.3%
09:00	EC	Euro-Zone CPI Estimate YoY (Aug)	4.0%
09:00	EC	Business Climate Indicator (Aug)	-0.30
09:00	EC	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (Aug)	-20
09:00	EC	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (Aug)	89.3
09:00	EC	Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence (Aug)	-9
09:00	EC	Euro-Zone Services Confidence (Aug)	1
09:30	SZ	KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (Aug)	0.83
12:30	CA	Industrial Product Price MoM(Jul)	0.7%
12:30	CA	Raw Materials Price Index MoM (Jul)	0.2%
12:30	CA	Quarterly GDP Annualized (2Q)	0.6%
12:30	CA	Gross Domestic Product MoM (Jun)	0.1%
12:30	US	Personal Income (Jul)	-0.2%
12:30	US	Personal Spending (Jul)	0.2%
12:30	US	PCE Deflator YoY (Jul)	4.5%
12:30	US	PCE Core MoM/YoY (Jul)	0.3%/2.4%
13:00	US	RPX Composite 28dy Index / YoY (Jun)	233.37/-15.60% prior
13:45	US	Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug)	50.0
14:00	US	U. of Michigan Confidence (Aug F)	62.0
14:00	US	NAPM-Milwaukee (Aug)	44.0

This and Next Week's Highlights:

Date	Region	Release
Sep 1	AU	Current Account Balance, Aig Performance of Mfg Index, TD Securities Inflation
Sep 1	JN	Vehicle Sales
Sep 1	GE	PMI Manufacturing
Sep 1	UK	M4 Sterling Lending, Net Consumer Credit, Net Lending Sec. On Dwellings, PMI Manufacturing, Mortagage Approvals
Sep 2	AU	Building Approvals, RBA Cash Target
Sep 2	SZ	CPI, GDP
Sep 2	NO	PMI
Sep 2	UK	PMI Construction
Sep 2	EC	Euro-Zone PPI
Sep 2	US	ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid

What's going on?

According to yesterday's release of Q2 GDP figures, the U.S. economy has grown at an annualized rate of 3.3%, or triple the first quarter's pace. Room, however, must be left for a downward revision in these figures, as at the same time the growth indicators followed by the National Bureau of Economic Research have all peaked at the end of 2007.
Yesterday, a significantly higher-than-expected build in natural gas storage sent the entire energy complex lower, with crude trading violently within 7 USD range.
Regardless of how accurate a picture they may or may have not drawn, the US GDP release has inspired a stock rally in the US session that was followed by an Asian rally, with the regional benchmark index gaining the most in 4 month period.

FX

USDJPY to break lower... despite strong GDP figures yesterday.

EUR	USD	JPY	GBP	CHF	AUD	CAD	NZD	NOK	SEK	PLN
	-	+	-	+		+

FX Trading Strategies

Pair	Supp.	Resis.	Comments
USDJPY	108.12	110.65	We are still looking for a break and close below trend support from July 16th. Strong figures from Japan and a potential reduction in risk appetite due to hurricane fears and upcoming US holiday Monday should keep the pair offered. We sell ½ position at 108.79 offer, stop if bid at 108.97, targeting 108.15.

Equities

The positive sentiment continues led by better than expected GDP and export numbers from the U.S.

Equities

We expect the European markets to open 0.3% higher Friday. The U.S. stock markets gained 0.6% after the close in Europe and the S&P 500 future is down by 0.3%. Main gainers were again the material sector and financials on the back of better than expected Q2 GDP growth driven by the exports. We believe that the financials in Europe will benefit from this and U.S. consumer debt gets a little bit less risky. Our house view for the banks is still very cautious in the medium term, but for today we are buyers of Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of Ireland and UBS

Trading Strategy:

Trade Idea [Equities - Fundamental Call - Buy Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS:xlon]: We are looking to buy within the entry range of 233-237, targeting 257. Keep a stop-loss at 225. Currently banks are trading higher on renewed optimism. We will following the trend, but due to the volatility in banks we will keep tight stops.

DAX	UKX	CAC	OMX	KFX	OBX	SMI	NDX	DJI	SPX	NKY
+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+

Equity Trading Strategies

Instrument	Entry	Stop	Target	Comments

Equity Index Levels

Futures

We believe yesterday's rally will fade around 6500.

We Sell Dax (fdxu8) @ $6478/6513 with a stop below 6527 targeting 6400 & 6340.
Despite yesterday's positive economic release from the US and Germany (Unemployment) and the technical break above 6380 for Dax, we do not believe this rally has much legs and should fade around the 6500 area. We continue to Sell rallies.

Bunds	US 10-Yr	Crude Oil	Silver	Gold	Gilts	JGBs	Euribor
+	+	+					+

Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer

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Asian Market Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | Aug 29 08 04:21 GMT |

Oil rises, USD falls on reports that Russia will cut off oil flow to West

Oil prices moved higher after The Telegraph newspaper reported that Russia may cut off oil flow to Western Europe over the coming days, in response to the threat of E.U. sanctions and NATO naval actions in the Black Sea. 'Reports have begun to circulate in Moscow that Russian oil companies are under orders from the Kremlin to prepare for a supply cut to Germany and Poland through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline,' wrote Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. 'It is believed that executives from lead-producer LUKoil have been put on weekend alert.' In a related development, the Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. is considering an end to talks with Russia on nuclear arms curbs. Nymex crude oil gained +1.15% between 18:00 EDT and 0:14 EDT, last trading at $116.93/bbl.

Forex: U.S. stocks have had a decent week, and the bears are trying their best to put a negative spin on Thursday's U.S. GDP data. Equity bears will also try and undermine the credibility of this week's price action, pointing out that volume on the NYSE failed to break one billion shares for the ninth straight session. Admittedly, it is very hard to judge the credibility of the move in these thin conditions, but it's worth pointing out that risky currencies have failed to make progress despite triple digit gains in U.S. stocks. The USD was sold for the third consecutive Asian session, with several analysts suggesting the currency looks overstretched.

South Korea's current account deficit at a 6mnth high: (KS JULY CURRENT ACCOUNT: -$2.45B V $1.82B prior; GOODS BALANCE: $301M V $3.48B prior) The dramatic deterioration of South Korea's current account has been widely expected, and continues to weigh on the KRW. In July, the Bank of Korea tripled the country's current account deficit forecast for this year to $9.0B from their previous forecast of $3.0B. The KRW fell after the report, on track for its biggest monthly decline since August 1998, and some analysts expect more bad news for the currency over coming months. 'We may see another deficit in August as it takes about one month for the recent drop in oil prices to be reflected in import costs,' said Go You Sun at Daewoo Securities. 'The outlook depends largely on exports, especially to China, our biggest market.'

Japanese inflation continues to rise: (JP JULY NATIONAL CPI YOY: 2.3% V 2.2% expected, 2.0% prior; CORE: 2.4% V 2.3% expected, 1.9% prior) The rise in core inflation matches a figure set in October 1997, and is the highest since a 2.5% rise in June 1992. The data marks the 10th straight month of increase for the core consumer price index.

Japan's manufacturing PMI drops for 6th consecutive month: (JP AUG NOMURA/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 46.9 V 46.0 expected, 47 prior (a reading below 50 denotes contraction); Input price component 78.4 v 78.5 prior) 'Operating conditions within the Japanese manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate during the month, amid fears of a global economic slowdown,' said Alex Hamilton, an economist at Markit.

Japanese exports to Asia support industrial production during July: (JP JULY PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MOM: 0.9% V -0.3% expected, -2.2% prior; YOY: 2.0% V 0.6% expected, 0.0% prior) Analysts said that the industrial production data may not be strong enough to alleviate concern that the U.S. slowdown is spreading around the world, threatening Japan's economic growth.

Japan's unemployment rate unexpectedly falls in July: (JP JULY JOBLESS RATE: 4.0% V 4.1% expected, 4.1% prior; JOBS-TO-APPLICANT RATIO: 0.89 V 0.90 expected, 0.91 prior)

Japan's household spending falls for a fifth consecutive month: (JP JULY HOUSEHOLD SPENDING YOY: -0.5% V -1.8% expected, -1.8% prior)

Japanese retail sales increase in July, helped by increased spending on fuel and food: (JP JULY RETAIL TRADE YOY: 1.9% V 1.3% expected, 0.3% prior; MOM: 0.0% V -0.1% expected, 0.0% prior)

New Zealand building permits rebound in July: (NZ JULY BUILDING PERMITS MOM: 4.7% V -20.1% prior) Analysts said that low levels of building approvals suggest residential construction is contracting.

Recent rate hikes, combined with a slowing economy, hurt new home sales in Australia: (AU JULY HIA NEW HOME SALES MOM: -7.2% V 0.5% prior) Housing Industry Association (HIA) said in a statement that declining residential construction activity highlighted the 'absolute need' for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates. 'Budgeted sales levels are well down on expectations and that runs the clear risk of the next step being a shedding of labor in the industry,' said the organization.

Private sector credit expands in Australia: (AU JULY PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT MOM: 0.5% V 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior; YOY: 11.2% V 11.0% expected, 11.8% prior) Business credit rose 0.7% in the month, and increased 15.0% over the year.

Equities: At 0:12 EDT Japan's Nikkei is +1.84%, the S&P/ASX200 is +1.36%, South Korea's KOSPI is +0.07%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is +1.92%, and the Shanghai composite index is +1.18%. The S&P500 futures index lost -0.24% since the U.S. close, last trading at 1,295. Asian stocks tracked Wall Street's gains, with the upward revision to U.S. Q2 GDP emboldening bargain hunters. Exporters and financials added to most of the upside in Tokyo, while banks also traded higher in Sydney. South Korean stocks failed to maintain early gains, while steelmakers and best of breed financials traded higher in Shanghai.

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

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Japan Industrial Production Unexpectedly Rises 0.9% on Exports

By Keiko Ujikane

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's industrial production unexpectedly rebounded in July as demand in Asia helped exporters withstand a slump in shipments to the U.S.

Factory output gained 0.9 percent from June, when it fell 2.2 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.3 percent decline.

Today's figure may not be strong enough to alleviate concern that the U.S. slowdown is spreading around the world, threatening Japan's longest postwar expansion. Both the Bank of Japan and the government cut their economic assessments this month after sluggish exports and weak consumer spending caused gross domestic product to contract last quarter.

``There is no change to our assessment that production is on a gradual downward trend,'' said Mamoru Yamazaki, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The economy entered a downturn and we forecast this will continue until mid- 2009.''

Japan's exports rebounded in July as China replaced the U.S. as the nation's largest customer. Exports to China climbed to a record, while shipments to the U.S. slumped for an 11th month.

The Bank of Japan last week described growth as ``sluggish'' for the first time in a decade, citing weakening exports as well as higher commodity costs. Japan's economy shrank at an annual 2.4 percent pace in the second quarter shipments abroad dropped the most in seven years.

Hino's SUVs

Weakening U.S. demand and rising raw-material costs have squeezed profits and forced companies to pare production.

Hino Motors Ltd., Japan's largest maker of heavy trucks, said yesterday that it will make fewer sport-utility vehicles as higher gasoline prices damp North American sales. Toyota yesterday lowered its 2009 sales forecast to 9.7 million vehicles from 10.4 million as record fuel prices damp demand.

``Manufacturers are being cautious about production because the slowdown in the global economy is cooling demand,'' said Susumu Kato, chief economist at Calyon Securities in Tokyo. ``The economic downturn in Japan will probably continue for another six to nine months.''

Still, Japan's economy may be more resilient now than it was during the three recessions since 1990 because companies have shed excess workers, factories and debt, economists and policy makers say.

The economy is unlikely to suffer a ``major deterioration'' because companies don't have excess capacity and labor, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said last week.

``This current expansion hasn't been characterized any degree of excess,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. ``We're just looking purely at a cyclical slowing in the economy, so it's unlikely that any recession will be deep or long lasting.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.net

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Japan August Consumer Price Index: Statistical Summary (Table)

By Minh Bui

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of Japan's consumer price index from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in Tokyo.


================================================================================
                          Aug.   July   June    May  April  March   Feb.   Jan.
                          2008   2008   2008   2008   2008   2008   2008   2008
================================================================================
                        --------------Month-on-Month Percent Change--------------
Tokyo:                 
 CPI                     -0.1%   0.2%   0.5%   0.3%   0.1%   0.2%   0.0%  -0.1%
 CPI core                -0.1%   0.3%   0.3%   0.2%   0.2%   0.1%  -0.1%   0.3%
  Ex-food, energy        -0.1%   0.0%   0.1%   0.1%  -0.1%   0.1%  -0.2%   0.2%
 CPI (nsa)                0.1%  -0.1%   0.3%   0.5%   0.3%   0.6%  -0.3%  -0.3%
 CPI core (nsa)           0.2%   0.1%   0.2%   0.4%   0.4%   0.5%  -0.2%  -0.4%
  Ex-food, energy (nsa)   0.2%  -0.2%  -0.1%   0.3%   0.3%   0.6%  -0.4%  -0.6%



================================================================================
                          Aug.   July   June    May  April  March   Feb.   Jan.
                          2008   2008   2008   2008   2008   2008   2008   2008
================================================================================
                        --------------Month-on-Month Percent Change--------------
National:              
 CPI                       n/a   0.4%   0.7%   0.6%  -0.3%   0.2%   0.1%   0.0%
 CPI core                  n/a   0.5%   0.4%   0.7%  -0.3%   0.1%   0.1%   0.1%
  ex-food, energy          n/a   0.0%   0.1%  -0.1%  -0.1%   0.1%  -0.1%   0.1%
 CPI (nsa)                 n/a   0.2%   0.5%   0.8%  -0.1%   0.5%  -0.2%  -0.2%
 CPI core (nsa)            n/a   0.4%   0.4%   0.8%   0.0%   0.4%  -0.1%  -0.4%
  ex-food, energy (nsa)    n/a  -0.1%   0.0%   0.1%   0.2%   0.5%  -0.3%  -0.6%
Tokyo:                  ---------------Year-on-Year- Percent Change--------------
 CPI                      1.3%   1.6%   1.5%   0.9%   0.6%   0.6%   0.4%   0.3%
 CPI core                 1.5%   1.6%   1.3%   0.9%   0.7%   0.6%   0.4%   0.4%
  ex-food, energy         0.2%   0.3%   0.3%   0.1%   0.0%   0.1%  -0.1%   0.0%
National:              
 CPI                       n/a   2.3%   2.0%   1.3%   0.8%   1.2%   1.0%   0.7%
 CPI core                  n/a   2.4%   1.9%   1.5%   0.9%   1.2%   1.0%   0.8%
  ex-food, energy          n/a   0.2%   0.1%  -0.1%  -0.1%   0.1%  -0.1%  -0.1%
================================================================================

NOTE: CPI core excludes fresh food. Month-on-month percent changes are seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise noted. Year-on-year percent changes are not seasonally adjusted. Index: 2005=100

SOURCE: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

To contact the reporter on this story: Minh Bui in Tokyo at mbui@bloomberg.net

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London Luxury Homes Register First Annual Price Fall in 5 Years

By Simon Packard

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Luxury-home values in central London, the world's most expensive location for prime real estate, registered their first annual fall in five years as buyers were deterred by signs the economy may enter a recession.

The average value of houses and apartments in London's nine most expensive neighborhoods dropped 1.6 percent from August 2007, broker Knight Frank LLP said today in a statement. Values fell 1.3 percent from July, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Luxury homes in London, except those costing more than 10 million pounds ($18.4 million), have followed the slide in prices already experienced elsewhere in Britain as banks curb lending, shed staff and cut bonuses. Average U.K. home values dropped 10.5 percent this month from a year earlier, the largest decline since the final quarter of 1990, according to a report released yesterday by lender Nationwide Building Society.

Home-buyers are being affected ``by pessimism in the financial services sector, particularly relating to the size of this year's bonuses,'' Liam Bailey, Knight Frank's head of residential research, said in the statement.

More than 300,000 people are employed in financial services in London and their appetite for expensive homes has slackened as employers eliminate jobs and lower bonus payments. Some 10,000 jobs may be lost in the next three years, Experian Group Ltd. estimates, as banks around the world have incurred mortgage losses and writedowns exceeding $500 billion.

Homes worth less than 1 million pounds are the most affected, with appraised values down 9.2 percent from a year ago, because prospective buyers still rely on mortgages to make purchases, Knight Frank said.

``Super-Prime'' Values Rise

Properties worth more than 10 million pounds gained 2.9 percent from July, or 19 percent more than a year ago, on demand from wealthy overseas investors who are little affected by borrowing constraints, Knight Frank said.

Such ``super prime'' properties ``have proved immune from the downward trends elsewhere,'' Bailey said. ``There are now signs that the gap between this sector and the rest of the market is growing.''

Knight Frank compiles its monthly index from appraised values of representative properties in Mayfair, St John's Wood, Regent's Park, Kensington, Notting Hill, Chelsea, Knightsbridge, Belgravia and the South Bank neighborhoods of London.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Packard in London at packard@bloomberg.net.

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India's Economy Probably Expanded at Slowest Pace Since 2005

By Cherian Thomas
More Photos/Details

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- India's economy probably grew at the slowest pace since 2005 last quarter as the fastest inflation in a decade and higher borrowing costs damped consumer spending.

Asia's third-largest economy expanded 8 percent in the three months to June 30 from a year earlier, following an 8.8 percent gain in the previous quarter, according to the median forecast of 25 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The figures are due to be released today around noon in New Delhi.

Higher fuel and food prices have pushed inflation to 12.4 percent and forced the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates three times since June. The central bank still expects the economy to expand around 8 percent this year, almost double the average pace since India's independence in 1947.

``India's growth is still pretty good,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist with CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``But it won't be as good as it was in the last few years because of the aggressive monetary tightening.''

India may lose its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy after China this year, according to World Bank estimates. Russia's economy may grow 7.1 percent in 2008, overtaking India's 7 percent expansion this year, while China may increase 9.4 percent this year, the bank forecast in June.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy, scheduled to retire Sept. 5, said controlling inflation will be the central bank's ``overriding priority'' after he raised the key repurchase rate to 9 percent, a seven-year high, last month.

`Line of Defense'

The finance ministry says monetary policy should be the ``first line of defense'' against inflation. The repurchase rate will climb to between 9.25 percent and 9.5 percent by the end of October, according to eight of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News after the last monetary policy statement July 29.

``High inflation and interest rates are issues that are bothering the industry as they have an impact on consumer demand and hurt corporate profitability,'' said Kundapur Vaman Kamath, chief executive officer at ICICI Bank Ltd., India's second- largest lender. ``Until we see inflation easing, it would be unrealistic to expect an easing of monetary policy.''

Inflation can win or lose elections in India, where about 456 million people live below the World Bank's poverty line of $1.25 a day. Singh lost ground in nine of 11 state elections since January 2007 because of rising prices. General elections are scheduled to be held before May.

Still, Singh said this month that he doesn't want growth to suffer in the battle against inflation, adding faster economic expansion is vital to eradicating poverty.

Loan Waiver

In February, Singh wrote off $17 billion of farm loans and this month increased salaries of about 5 million government employees by 21 percent to spur consumer demand.

Industry, which makes up a quarter of gross domestic product, is also getting support from investments in India's special economic zones, which are enclaves with uninterrupted power, water and other infrastructure support for manufacturers. Investments may reach 2 trillion rupees ($45 billion) in about 250 zones by December 2009, the commerce ministry estimates.

Still, 8 percent growth in the year to March 31 will be weakest expansion since 2003 and comes after Singh presided over record average annual growth of 8.9 percent since 2004.

India's passenger car sales were almost stagnant in July. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., maker of half the cars in the country, posted a 1.5 percent gain in sales while Hyundai Motor Co.'s India unit, the nation's second-largest carmaker, boosted sales by 0.5 percent.

Cement Sales

ACC Ltd., India's biggest cement-maker, reported a worse- than-estimated 27 percent drop in second-quarter profit on fuel costs and government-enforced price curbs to check inflation. Sales rose by 1.2 percent as construction slowed.

India's benchmark Sensitive index has declined by a third this year, while the yield on the key 10-year bond has climbed about 60 basis points to 8.80 percent. The rupee has weakened 8.3 percent against the U.S. dollar since Jan. 1.

Services, which account for 55 percent of the economy, may have also been dented in the second quarter because of higher interest rates.

Banking services, for example, will probably take a hit after loan growth at Indian banks slowed to about 23.5 percent in the first six months of this year, compared with 27.8 percent a year earlier, according to the central bank.

``Going forward, agriculture will hold the key for both industry and overall growth,'' said Tushar Poddar, a Mumbai- based economist at Goldman Sachs. ``The monsoon will be critical in that regard.''

The June-September monsoon, which accounts for four-fifths of the nation's annual rainfall, was 1 percent below average in the week ended Aug. 24, according to the weather office. A normal monsoon will help the country's 234 million farmers harvest a bigger crop, boosting incomes.

Agriculture makes up about 20 percent of India's economy, though it provides a livelihood to three-fifths of India's 1.1 billion people who dwell in rural areas.

India's GDP Forecasts


-------------------------------------------
                                  GDP YoY%
Company                          April-June
-------------------------------------------
Median                                 8.0%
Average                                8.0%
High                                   8.6%
Low                                    7.6%
Number of Estimates                     25
-------------------------------------------
ABN Amro Bank                          8.0%
Anand Rathi Securities                 7.9%
Axis Bank Ltd.                         7.8%
CARE Ratings                           8.6%
CFC Seymour                            8.3%
Citi                                   7.6%
CRISIL Ltd.                            7.9%
DBS Group                              8.6%
Dun & Bradstreet Info.                 8.0%
Edelweiss Securities                   7.9%
Forecast Singapore                     8.2%
HSBC Singapore                         8.2%
ICICI Securities                       7.8%
IDBI Gilts Ltd.                        7.9%
JPMorgan Chase Bank                    7.9%
Kotak Mahindra Bank                    7.8%
Kotak Securities Ltd.                  8.0%
Lehman Brothers                        8.1%
Macquarie Capital Securities           8.0%
Moody's Economy.com Inc.               8.0%
Reuters IFR                            8.2%
Securities Trading Corp. Of India      7.9%
Standard Chartered Bank                8.1%
UBS                                    7.8%
Yes Bank                               8.5%
-------------------------------------------

To contact the reporter on this story: Cherian Thomas in New Delhi at cthomas1@bloomberg.net

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South Korea's Current Account Turns to Deficit of $2.45 Billion

By William Sim

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's current-account balance turned to a deficit in July as a weaker currency and higher oil prices boosted the nation's import bill.

The shortfall was $2.45 billion last month following June's surplus of $1.82 billion, the Bank of Korea said in Seoul today. The current account is the broadest measure of trade, tracking goods, services and investment income.

Rising commodity prices and the won's decline to a four- year low are making imports more expensive and fanning the fastest inflation in a decade, squeezing household incomes and corporate profits. The economy expanded at the slowest pace in more than a year last quarter as consumers cut spending.

Exports to China and other emerging markets are driving South Korea's economic growth as local demand weakens.

Prior to June's surplus, South Korea recorded current- account deficits in each of the six months to May, the longest run of shortfalls since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

To contact the reporter on this story: William Sim in Seoul at wsim2@bloomberg.net

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Japan Inflation Exceeds 2% for First Time in Decade

By Mayumi Otsuma

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's inflation rate exceeded 2 percent for the first time in a decade as prices of food and gasoline surged, prompting consumers to spend less.

Core prices, which exclude fresh food, climbed 2.4 percent in July from a year earlier after rising 1.9 percent in June, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. Household spending fell 0.5 percent from a year earlier, a fifth monthly decline.

The government will release an economic stimulus package later today that will include support for households coping with noodle, bread and milk prices that are rising faster than wages. Job prospects worsened last month, a separate report showed, another blow for consumers who are already the most pessimistic they've been in at least 26 years.

``Rising raw-material costs are forcing companies to increase the prices of their products, but wages aren't rising,'' said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``The economic downturn is likely to continue'' until the middle of 2009, Muto said.

The ratio of jobs available to each applicant dropped for a sixth month to 0.89, the lowest since October 2004, the Labor Ministry said today. The unemployment rate fell to 4 percent from 4.1 percent.

The yen rose to 109.07 per dollar as of 11:07 a.m. in Tokyo from 109.53 before the figures were released, on speculation reports will show U.S. consumer spending slumped. The yield on Japan's 10-year bond fell half a basis point to 1.415 percent.

Bank of Japan

July's increase in core prices was the steepest since October 2007, when they were boosted by a sales tax increase. Excluding the tax, prices last climbed that much 16 years ago.

The gains are unlikely to prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates anytime soon because the economy is on the brink of a recession and Governor Masaaki Shirakawa expects inflation will moderate as commodity costs ease. There are few signs inflation is spreading from food and fuel products because wage growth is weak, Shirakawa, 58, said this week.

``The Bank of Japan places more focus on economic growth than inflation now,'' said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. in Tokyo. ``The central bank will probably hold off raising rates until the third quarter of next year.''

Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said wages need to increase for consumption to pick up. Prices of goods purchased at least 15 times a year climbed 3.6 percent in July, today's report showed. Wages rose 0.4 percent in June.

Energy, Food

Energy-related products accounted for more than half of the increase in core prices, and food goods contributed one-third. Excluding food and energy, prices rose for only the third time since 1998, climbing 0.2 percent from a year earlier after increasing 0.1 percent in June.

McDonald's Holdings Co. Japan raised the price of a Big Mac this month. Nichirei Corp., a Tokyo-based food maker, plans to increase prices of some frozen foods next month.

``The thrust from food prices will keep core inflation above 2 percent through November even after energy costs peak,'' said Masaaki Kanno, a former central bank official and now chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. ``We won't see prices really ease until the New Year.''

Bank of Japan policy makers have said they consider core prices to be stable between zero and 2 percent and they focus on inflation trends over the long term. ``Unless core prices breach the range for a year at least, the Bank of Japan will regard any deviations just as temporary,'' Daiwa SMBC's Iwashita said.

`Sluggish' Economy

The central bank has kept the key overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent since doubling it in February 2007. It shelved a policy of gradual rate increases in April, and last week said the economy was ``sluggish'' for the first time in a decade after a report showed gross domestic product fell an annualized 2.4 percent in the second quarter.

Industrial production unexpectedly rebounded in July, a separate report showed today, as Asian demand helped exporters withstand a slump in U.S. shipments. Output rose 0.9 percent from June, when it fell 2.2 percent, the trade ministry said.

The ``month-on-month numbers tend to be volatile and don't reflect the overall trend, which seems to be weakening,'' Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody's Economy.com in Sydney, told Bloomberg Television.

The government maintained its assessment that production is weakening. Companies forecast output will decline 2.9 percent in August before rising 3.4 percent in September, the survey showed.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at motsuma@bloomberg.net

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`Committee to Save the Dollar' May Not Be Needed: William Pesek

Commentary by William Pesek

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- So, the dollar isn't on its own.

That's the upshot of a Nikkei newspaper scoop yesterday that European, Japanese and U.S. officials in mid-March drew up plans to strengthen the U.S. currency following troubles at Bear Stearns Cos. Assuming the report is correct, such an effort might be dubbed ``The Committee to Save the Dollar.''

It would be the currency-market equivalent of the ``The Committee to Save the World.'' That term was coined in February 1999 by Time magazine when it splashed Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers on its cover. Time credited them with ending a global crisis that began in Thailand in July 1997.

Thailand, of course, is again in a state of chaos. Yet the eyes of the world haven't been on the Thai baht this year, but a dollar seemingly in freefall. In July, the dollar declined to $1.6038 per euro, the lowest since the euro's inception in 1999.

That was then. The euro is down 9 percent versus the dollar since mid-July, making any meetings of the Committee to Save the Dollar, or global moves to intervene in markets, less necessary.

``The risk would appear to have diminished as markets have come to realize that Europe's economy is weakening,'' says Paul Donovan, deputy head of global economics at UBS AG in London.

Japan's is slowing, too. The world's second-largest economy contracted an annualized 2.4 percent last quarter, raising the chances of a recession. Weakening growth also increases the odds the Bank of Japan will cut its 0.5 percent benchmark rate.

Why Now?

The dollar isn't doing better because the U.S. outlook is brightening. Rather, economies -- such as Japan's and those in the euro area -- that were forecast to hold their ground are losing pace. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, isn't expected to cut rates with the U.S. consumer-price index up 5.6 percent for the 12 months ended in July.

The thing about the Nikkei's unnamed-source story is that it was both surprising and utterly predictable. It was surprising because it had traders wondering why officials would leak such news now. Why not three months ago when the dollar was sliding?

One possibility is that policy makers want the dollar's recovery to continue. Knowledge of an agreement to stabilize markets, says Naomi Fink, a senior currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in Tokyo, ``could be a disincentive for runaway dollar-selling speculation.''

Credit Crisis

The report was also predictable because, well, one would hope policy makers were mulling responses to the dollar. That may be what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was trying to convey in June when he said the central bank was ``attentive'' to the currency's effect on inflation expectations. Central bankers never mention exchange rates casually.

Many were equally attentive to how the dollar's drop was helping to boost oil prices. Commodity-price inflation makes it difficult for Asian central banks to cut interest rates to support growth. The quickest solution is to stop the dollar from falling, a dynamic that might reverse the increase in oil prices.

None of this means the dollar won't plunge anew if the global credit crunch worsens. For the moment, though, the need for some kind of Plaza Accord-like currency deal has been reduced. That's good news for nations concerned that further declines in the dollar will shake up the global economy.

Asia's problems run deeper than the dollar. Between slowing growth, inflation, political instability and troubles in credit markets, economic officials have their hands full.

Pakistan's Woes

Nowhere is that truer than Pakistan, which yesterday imposed emergency trading limits to halt a slide in stocks that sent the benchmark index down 42 percent since April. It was the second attempt in two months to restore confidence in a market battered by political upheaval, and it's unlikely to help.

A rigged market wouldn't work for a stable economy, never mind one rocked by a political crisis. Far from restoring calm, the ouster of President Pervez Musharraf and the breakup of the coalition government have only spooked investors.

Should fresh turmoil flare up elsewhere, markets will be looking out for assertive actions from the biggest economies.

According to Nikkei, the March plan would have the U.S. Treasury Department, Japan's Finance Ministry and the European Central Bank directing the purchase of dollars and the sale of euros and yen. Japan would provide the yen needed for currency swaps if the dollar dropped significantly.

The three groups, which considered making an emergency statement through the Group of Seven industrialized nations, didn't stipulate a specific exchange rate for the potential move, nor did they detail how much money would be used, Nikkei said.

The good news is that such a plan probably exists. The bad news is that there's no guarantee the Committee to Save the Dollar will be able to rescue it.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net

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Dollar Falls on Speculation Consumer Spending, Incomes Slumped

By Stanley White
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Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the yen, heading for a second weekly decline, on speculation government reports will show consumer spending slumped as home prices fell and fuel costs increased.

The greenback also weakened against the euro as oil prices climbed, threatening to curb growth in the world's largest energy consumer. The British pound traded near a record low against the euro as a central bank policy maker said lower interest rates are needed to prevent a housing slump from pushing the economy into a recession.

``The dollar has a weak bias,'' said Osao Iizuka, head of foreign exchange trading at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. ``The unhealthy state of the U.S. economy is dictating the tempo for the dollar. A rise in oil prices is also a negative factor for growth.''

The U.S. currency declined to 108.97 yen at 10:55 a.m. in Tokyo, compared with 109.50 late yesterday in New York and 110.07 on Aug. 22. The dollar fell to $1.4734 per euro, compared with $1.4706 late yesterday. The euro was at 160.74 yen from 161.04 yesterday. The dollar may fall to $1.4780 per euro today, Iizuka forecast.

The pound headed for a 2.2 percent monthly decline versus the euro, the largest since March, after Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said rates need to decline. Sterling was at 80.41 pence per euro after touching 80.61 pence yesterday, the weakest since April 17. It reached a record low of 80.99 pence on April 16.

South Korea's currency today fell 0.6 percent to 1,088.50 per dollar. It is set for the biggest monthly decline since August 1998 as overseas fund managers dumped local stocks and refiners paid bills for imports.

U.S. Economy

U.S. personal income declined 0.2 percent in July following a 0.1 percent gain in June, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Personal spending increased 0.2 percent after climbing 0.6 percent, a separate survey showed. The Commerce Department will release the data at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

The euro is down 5.8 percent against the dollar this month, heading for its biggest decline since the single currency's 1999 debut, as a slump in German business confidence to a three-year low added to concern European economies may fall into a recession.

``On a short-term basis, we do think the dollar probably has overstretched itself,'' said Mike Moran, senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``There's scope for a pullback.''

Crude Oil

Crude oil for October delivery rose $1.12 to $116.72 a barrel as a tropical storm threatening U.S. oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico may strengthen into a hurricane. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep.

U.S. Gross domestic product rose 3.3 percent on an annual basis in April through June, the Commerce Department reported yesterday, exceeding the previous estimate of 1.9 percent. The economy grew at a 0.9 percent pace in the first quarter.

The dollar has gained 8 percent from a record low of $1.6038 per euro set on July 15 as the European economy shrank in the second quarter and crude oil declined 20 percent from the all-time high reached last month.

The yen was little changed after the Japanese government said consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.4 percent in July from a year earlier, faster than economists' estimates for a 2.3 percent rise. A separate report showed industrial production rose 0.9 percent last month, counter to economists' expectations for a decline.

Bad to Worse

The pound last stood at $1.8289, on course for a 7.8 percent decline this month, the largest since October 1992. The average value of a home in the U.K. fell 10.5 percent in August, the biggest drop since the final quarter of 1990, Nationwide Building Society said yesterday.

The implied yield on the March short-sterling futures contract is down 26 basis points to 5.24 percent from 5.5 percent at the start of the month. The BOE's benchmark rate is 5 percent.

``The news for sterling has gone from bad to worse,'' analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, wrote in a research note yesterday. ``Moreover, BOE member Blanchflower delivered dovish comments.''

Investors should sell the pound with a target of $1.82, according to the report.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net

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New Zealand Oil & Gas Second-Half Profit Surges on Tui Output

By Gavin Evans

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd., the country's biggest publicly traded explorer, posted an eightfold gain in second-half profit because of production from a new field and record prices.

Net income rose to NZ$55.8 million ($39 million) in the six months ended June 30, from NZ$6.3 million a year earlier. The profit was derived from full-year earnings of NZ$97.2 million the Wellington-based company reported today.

New Zealand Oil & Gas owns 12.5 percent of the Tui oil field, drilled last July as the country's first offshore project in 11 years. Tui pumped 14.2 million barrels of oil in the 12 months ended June 30 and has produced a further 2 million barrels since then. Benchmark New York oil prices averaged 79 percent higher in the half than a year earlier.

New Zealand Oil & Gas was unchanged at NZ$1.62 at 10:30 a.m. in Wellington trading. The oil producer reported a 50-fold increase in sales in July.

Tui, a 15 percent stake in the offshore Kupe gas project and a 30 percent stake in Pike River Coal Ltd. are the company's major assets.

Rising costs and a decision by the Kupe partners to build their own storage for condensate, or light oil, will increase the project's completion cost by about 10 percent to NZ$1.2 billion, Chief Executive Officer David Salisbury told journalists on a conference call. The Origin Energy Ltd.-led project is on schedule for gas production mid-2009, he said.

Investors will receive a special 5 cent-a-share dividend on Oct. 1, the company said today. Full-year profit of NZ$104 million was expected, based on the average of four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg News.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net

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Japan's Yen, Indian Rupee, Thai Baht: Asia Currency Preview

By Bob Chen

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The following events and economic reports may influence trading in Asian currencies today.

Exchange rates are from the previous session.

Japanese yen: The government will report the consumer price index, the jobless rate and household spending data at 8:30 a.m. in Tokyo. Industrial production and retail sales figures are also due at 8:50 a.m.

Finance Minister Bunmei Ibuki, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano and Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura will hold briefings after a cabinet meeting this morning. Machimura will hold a second briefing at 4 p.m.

The yen was at 109.51 a dollar at 8:38 a.m. in New York.

South Korean won: Industrial production rose 7.9 percent in July following a 6.7 percent increase the previous month, economists said in a Bloomberg survey before the government reports the data at 1:30 p.m. local time. The central bank will report July current-account balance at 8 a.m.

The won was at 1,081.80.

India rupee: Gross domestic product expanded 8 percent in the quarter ended June, the slowest pace in almost three years, economists said in a Bloomberg News survey before the government reports the data at noon in New Delhi. The central bank will detail the nation's foreign-exchange reserves for the week ended Aug. 22 at 5 p.m. in Mumbai.

Wholesale prices rose 12.40 percent in the week ended Aug. 16 from a year earlier, following a 12.63 percent gain the previous week, a report showed after trading hours yesterday.

The rupee was at 43.7735.

Thailand's baht: The current-account balance slipped into a deficit of $706 million in July, following a $722 million surplus the previous month, economists said in a Bloomberg survey before the Bank of Thailand reports the data at 2:30 p.m. in Bangkok. Manufacturing production increased 9.7 percent in July from a year earlier, after rising 11.2 percent the previous month, another report may show today.

The baht was at 34.11.

Malaysian ringgit: The central bank will report second- quarter growth at 6 p.m. The economy expanded 6 percent, the slowest in a year, versus 7.1 percent in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The ringgit was at 3.3875.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Chen in Hong Kong at bchen45@bloomberg.net.

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Australian, New Zealand Dollars Are Poised for Monthly Decline

By Chris Young and Tracy Withers
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Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar fell, headed for the biggest monthly loss in 22 years, on speculation the nation's interest-rate advantage over the U.S. will narrow. New Zealand's dollar headed for a third monthly loss.

The currencies weakened after a U.S. government report showed yesterday the economy grew faster than economists expected in the second quarter. Australia's dollar is the worst performer of the 16 most-traded currencies in August as traders bet the central bank will lower interest rates next week for the first time in seven years and the yield premium of the nation's bonds shrank.

``It was only two months ago that people were expecting higher rates in Australia so there's been a dramatic shift in expectations weighing on the Australian dollar,'' said Jonathan Cavenagh, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. ``U.S. data has surprised to the upside.''

The Australian dollar declined to 86.32 U.S. cents as of 10:07 a.m. in Sydney, compared with 86.65 cents in late Asian trading yesterday and 94.23 cents at the end of July for an 8.4 percent monthly decline, the most since July 1986.

New Zealand's currency bought 70.30 U.S. cents from 70.49 cents late yesterday and 73.43 at the end of July.

Australia's dollar has tumbled 12 percent since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 cents on July 16. Policy makers said they may cut rates soon to avoid a ``deeper and more persistent'' economic slowdown, according to minutes of this month's rate meeting released Aug. 19. The currency has also weakened as the prices of commodities the country exports slumped on concern global growth is slowing.

Interest Rates

Australia's benchmark borrowing cost is 7.25 percent, New Zealand's 8 percent while the U.S. Federal Reserve's target is 2 percent. Traders expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by a quarter-percentage point on Sept. 2 and lower the benchmark to at least 6.25 percent in the next year, according to Credit Suisse Group indexes based on interest-rate swaps.

New Zealand's dollar headed for its longest monthly losing streak in three years after the U.S. Commerce Department reported a 3.3 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product from April through June that was higher than previously estimated.

Investors bought U.S. assets after Nationwide Building Society said house prices in Britain fell this month at the fastest annual pace in almost 20 years, and Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said U.K. interest rates need to decline to help the economy out of a recession.

Dollar Rebound

``A rebound in the U.S. dollar amid a mix of strong GDP and dovish comments from the Bank of England, knocked the New Zealand dollar back,'' said Danica Hampton, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington.

Australian 10-year government bonds declined today, pushing the yield up 1 basis point to 5.77 percent. The price of the 5.25 percent bond maturing in March 2019 fell 0.046, or A$0.46 per A$1,000 face amount, to 95.936. The yield was 6.22 percent at the end of last month.

New Zealand's benchmark 10-year bond yield was unchanged from yesterday at 6.01 percent. It has fallen 12 basis points this month. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Young in Sydney at cyoung12@bloomberg.net; Tracy Withers in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net.

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Oil Rises in New York as Gustav Threatens U.S. Gulf Platforms

By Mark Shenk and Margot Habiby

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose as producers including ConocoPhillips, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc evacuated rigs before the arrival of Gustav, forecast to become the worst Gulf of Mexico hurricane since Katrina.

Gustav, which was crossing Jamaica as a tropical storm, is forecast to reach Louisiana next week, passing through a region home to a quarter of U.S. oil output and 14 percent of natural gas production. It's expected to reintensify into a hurricane today, according to the National Hurricane Center.

``If the storm remains on this track, prices will start to rise again,'' said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas in New York. Oil fell more than $2 a barrel yesterday after the International Energy Agency said it would tap strategic stockpiles if Gustav disrupts Gulf energy production.

Crude oil for October delivery rose 62 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $116.21 a barrel at 8:40 a.m. Sydney time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 58 percent from a year ago. Oil has dropped 21 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11. Futures fell $2.56, or 2.2 percent, to $115.59 a barrel yesterday.

There is a 70 percent to 75 percent chance of the storm reaching the Gulf, by which time it will likely be a Category 3 hurricane, according to Weather Insight. A Category 3 hurricane has winds of at least 111 miles (179 kilometers) an hour and is classified as a ``major'' hurricane.

The Gulf of Mexico is home to 26 percent of U.S. oil output and 14 percent of the country's gas production. Katrina closed 95 percent of offshore output in the region. Almost 19 percent of U.S. refining capacity was idled because of damage and blackouts caused by Katrina and Rita.

Storm's Threat

Gustav may halt 1.27 million barrels a day of crude oil production if it strikes the Central Gulf Coast, Angela Montoya, a meteorologist at Weather Insight, LP, in Houston said.

The IEA coordinated the release of oil and fuel supplies among its 27 members after hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005. That response included the release of European gasoline supplies for shipment to the U.S., as well as crude oil and other refined products. The Paris-based agency was set up in 1974 in response to the Arab oil embargo.

``The IEA is making the right soothing noises to calm the market,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``Anyone who follows the industry would expect them to release supplies if there was a great deal of damage, but this is an emotional market and words can do a lot.''

Gustav is the seventh named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecasters predict 14 to 18 named storms will develop this year.

Brent crude oil for October settlement fell $2.05, or 1.8 percent, to settle at $114.17 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net; or Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.

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Japan Stocks Jump on Faster-Than-Expected U.S. Economic Growth

By Masaki Kondo

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's stocks jumped after faster- than-estimated growth in the U.S. boosted confidence demand for Japanese-made goods will persist in the world's largest economy.

Mazda Motor Corp., Japan's fourth-largest automaker, climbed 1.4 percent, while Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. added 1.4 percent. Video game maker Tecmo Ltd. was poised to surge after receiving a buyout offer from rival Square Enix Co. Fujifilm Holdings Corp. was set to drop after the company cut its annual profit target by more than a quarter.

``I expect a big rally today,'' Soichiro Monji, chief strategist at Tokyo-based Daiwa SB Investments Ltd., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``Technical indicators show Japan's stocks have been oversold to the extent they've become attractive.''

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 150.24, or 1.2 percent, to 12,918.49 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index rose 15.21, or 1.3 percent, to 1,234.74.

U.S. gross domestic product climbed at a 3.3 percent annualized pace in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Economists had estimated a 2.7 percent increase.

Meanwhile, Japan's factory output rose 0.9 percent in July from the previous month, the Trade Ministry said today before markets opened, while economists had expected a 0.3 percent decline.

Fujifilm, the world's biggest maker of liquid-crystal display film, slashed its annual net income target by 27 percent owing to rising material costs, it said yesterday after markets shut. UBS AG lowered its rating on the stock to ``neutral'' from ``buy,'' while at least three brokerages including Merrill Lynch & Co. cut their price targets on the shares.

Nikkei futures expiring in September added 1.5 percent to 12,960 in Osaka and gained 1.5 percent to 12,970 in Singapore.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.

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Economic Calendar Eco Data 8/29/08


GMT  Ccy  Events  Actual  Consensus  Previous  Revised
23:01 GBP U.K. Gfk survey Aug  -41 -39 
23:15  JPY  Japan Manufacturing PMI Aug   46  47  
23:30  JPY  Japan Household spending Y/Y Jul   -1.80%  -1.80%  
23:30  JPY  Japan National CPI Y/Y Jul   2.30%  1.90%  
23:30  JPY  Japan Tokyo CPI Y/Y Aug   1.70%  1.60%  
23:30  JPY  Japan Unemployment rate Jul   4.10%  4.10%  
23:50  JPY  Japan Industrial prod'n M/M Jul   -0.50%  -2.20%  
23:50  JPY  Japan Industrial prod'n Y/Y Jul   0.60%  0.00%  
23:50  JPY  Japan Retail sales Y/Y Jul   1.30%  0.30%  
05:00  JPY  Japan Construction orders Jul   N/A  -11.70%  
05:00  JPY  Japan Housing starts Y/Y Jul   14.00%  -16.70%  
09:00  EUR  Eurozone HICP flash Y/Y Aug   3.90%  4.00%  
09:00  EUR  Eurozone Unemployment rate Jul   7.30%  7.30%  
09:00  EUR  Eurozone Business climate Aug   -0.3  -0.21  
09:00  EUR  Eurozone Economic sentiment Aug   89.1  89.5  
09:00  EUR  Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug   -20  -20  
09:30  CHF  Swiss KOF indicator Aug   0.83  0.9  
12:30  CAD  Canada GDP M/M Jun   0.10%  -0.10%  
12:30  CAD  Canada GDP annualised Q2   0.70%  -0.30%  
12:30  CAD  Canada PPI M/M Jul   0.50%  1.30%  
12:30  CAD  Canada PPI Y/Y Jul   N/A  5.40%  
12:30  USD  U.S. PCE core M/M Jul   0.30%  0.30%  
12:30  USD  U.S. PCE core Y/Y Jul   2.40%  2.30%  
12:30  USD  U.S. PCE index M/M Jul   N/A  0.80%  
12:30  USD  U.S. PCE index Y/Y Jul   4.40%  4.10%  
12:30  USD  U.S. Personal income Jul   -0.20%  0.10%  
12:30  USD  U.S. Personal spending Jul   0.20%  0.60%  
13:45  USD  U.S. Chicago PMI Aug   50  50.8  
14:00  USD  U.S. U. Michigan survey F Aug   62  61.7