Economic Calendar

Thursday, September 25, 2008

BM&FBovespa, Gafisa, Vale, Petrobras: Brazilian Equity Movers

By Fabio Alves

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies are having unusual price changes in Brazil trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are as of 9:25 a.m. New York time. Preferred shares are usually the most-traded class of stock.

The Bovespa index rose 2 percent to 50,845.98.

Brazilian homebuilders rallied after Banco Santander SA recommended buying the stocks, saying investors probably have overestimated the effects of tighter credit.

Gafisa SA (GFSA3 BS), the country's second-largest real estate developer, was raised to ``buy'' from ``underperform,'' while Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos e Participacoes (CYRE3 BS), Brazil's biggest, and MRV Engenharia e Participacoes SA (MRVE3 BS) were raised from ``hold,'' analysts including Marcello Milman wrote. They reiterated ``buy'' ratings on PDG Realty SA Empreendimentos e Participacoes (PDGR3 BS) and Rossi Residencial SA (RSID3 BS). Gafisa climbed 2.5 percent to 23.57 reais. Cyrela added 0.8 percent to 19.75 reais. MRV rose 1.5 percent to 24.36 reais. PDG Realty gained 1.5 percent to 14.70 reais. Rossi increased 3.1 percent to 6.65 reais.

ALL America Latina Logistica SA (ALLL11 BS) rose the most in a week, adding 2.5 percent to 16.20 reais. MRC Servicos Ferroviarios DPRS-AL Ltda. received a loan from Brazil's national development bank to build a rail terminal to be used by ALL, Latin America's largest railroad operator. The grain terminal is being built in Parana state, the bank said in a statement e- mailed yesterday.

BM&FBovespa SA (BVMF3 BS) gained for a second day, climbing 2.8 percent to 8.74 reais. The world's fourth-largest securities exchange said it plans to buy back as much as 3.5 percent of its shares, according to a statement on Brazil's securities regulator's Web site yesterday. The company must complete the transaction by Sept. 23, 2009, and will cancel the shares it acquires, according to the statement.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4 BS) added 2.4 percent to 35.33 reais, the highest in a month. Brazil's state-controlled oil company said tests confirmed that there is a ``large'' deposit of natural gas and light crude oil in the offshore well known as Jupiter.

Cia. Vale do Rio Doce (VALE5 BS) rose for a second day, adding 2.1 percent to 34.88 reais. Cia. Vale do Rio Doce Chief Executive Officer Roger Agnelli said some Chinese steelmakers already have accepted an increase in the price of iron-ore, Epoca reported. Vale is still in talks with Chinese customers, who threatened to stop buying ore from Vale as the company sought price increases amid surging demand, the magazine said. Agnelli said the company is seeking increases of ``around'' 11 percent, Epoca reported.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fabio Alves in New York at falves3@bloomberg.net.



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GE's Immelt declined Lehman stake offer - NY Post

(Adds GE declining to comment)

Sept 25 (Reuters) - General Electric Co's (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) chief executive, Jeff Immelt, turned down an offer for the company to take as much as a 20 percent stake in Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEHMQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) prior to Lehman's collapse, the New York Post said citing sources.

Lehman's chief executive Richard Fuld called Immelt before the company filed for bankruptcy, the paper said.

Fuld also turned to American International Group's (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) then-CEO Marty Sullivan to arrange a deal, the paper said citing sources.

A GE spokesman declined to comment when contacted by Reuters. Neither Fuld nor spokespeople at AIG could be reached for comment. (Reporting by Ajay Kamalakaran in Bangalore; Editing by Greg Mahlich)





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Copper and aluminium down on U.S. bailout woes

 * Copper hits one-week low on U.S. bailout concerns
 * Aluminium touches 8-month trough as inventories rise
 * Market nervous ahead of U.S. $700 billion rescue meeting

(Adds fresh comment/details, changes dateline PVS SHANGHAI)
 By Anna Stablum
 LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Copper drifted lower and
aluminium touched an 8-month trough on Thursday as most
investors were sidelined awaiting more news on a $700 billion
U.S. rescue plan designed to stabilise the banking sector.
 "Markets are waiting for the rescue package, wondering what
it means for the economy," said analyst Barbara Lambrecht at
Commerzbank.
 "Copper prices will continue to fall in the medium-term,
there is a slowdown in demand and there are recession risks in
the U.S. and in Europe - and this could spill over to China."
 London Metal Exchange copper MCU3 hit a one-week low of
$6,835 per tonne before trading at $6,892, down $13 at 0942 GMT.
 Copper, mainly used in the power and construction sectors,
has shed 24 percent since it hit a record of $8,940 in July.
 "No one wants to trade anything above what they are forced
to -- it is better not to be involved in these markets -- if the
package doesn't go through Congress we could face a global
meltdown," an LME trader said.
 The market is focused on U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve
officials wrangling with the U.S. Congress to win approval for a
financial markets bailout plan, which could influence the
long-term outlook for metal consumption.
 U.S. President George Bush called an emergency meeting for
Thursday to hammer out details of the deal. [ID:nLP616843]
 LME copper stocks fell another 525 tonnes, but at 200,525
tonnes they are still two thirds higher than in mid-June.
 "The copper market has seen lower inventories and this is
supporting prices -- but on the other hand, there is lower
demand from cable producers in the U.S.," Lambrecht said.
 Rising stocks have pulled down the backwardation -- the
premium for cash material over three-month prices -- to $15 per
tonne. On July 17, the premium hit the year's high, at $241,
with a dominant position capturing most of the market.
 The large position now holds between 50-to-80 percent of the
copper warrants in LME warehouses, down from 80 to 90 percent.
 Aluminium MAL3 eased to $2,477 against Wednesday's close
of $2,503. Earlier the light metal, used in the power, transport
and packaging industries, fell 1.3 percent to $2,470 -- the
lowest since Jan. 25.
 LME inventories have surged more than 20 percent since
mid-August to stand at 1.37 million tonnes, enough for 13 days of
world consumption. Shanghai stocks have also humped -- up 120
percent at just under 200,000 tonnes.
 Lead MPB3 was down 2.2 percent or $43 at $1,952, zinc
MZN3 shed $11 to $1,779, tin MSN3 fell to $17,250 against
$17,275/17,300 and nickel MNI3 dropped $225 to $16,925.

 Metal Prices at 0945 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2007 Ytd Pct
                                                          move
LME Cu 6892.00 -13.00 -0.19 6670.00 3.33
SHFE Cu* 53440.00 -50.00 -0.09 56880.00 -6.05
LME Alum 2477.00 -26.00 -1.04 2403.00 3.08
SHFE Alu* 15510.00 105.00 +0.68 18180.00 -14.69
COMEX Cu** 312.15 0.00 +0.00 303.50 2.85
LME Zinc 1779.00 -11.00 -0.61 2370.00 -24.94
SHFE Zinc* 14265.00 15.00 +0.11 18950.00 -24.72
LME Nick 16925.00 -225.00 -1.31 26350.00 -35.77
LME Lead 1952.00 -43.00 -2.16 2550.00 -23.45
LME Tin 17250.00 -75.00 -0.43 16400.00 5.18
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contact month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Additional reporting by Alfred Cang, editing by Michael
Roddy)





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U.S. index futures point to higher Wall St open

* Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average DJc1, the S&P 500 SPc1 and the Nasdaq 100 NDc1 are up 0.7-1.3 percent at 1000 GMT, pointing to a stronger start on Wall Street after declines in the previous session.

* Congress looks close to reaching a deal to approve a $700 billion plan to bail out the U.S. financial system and President George W. Bush has called an emergency meeting for Thursday to hammer out details.

* The move toward a deal will likely calm U.S. markets, which remained on tenterhooks on Wednesday as negotiations dragged on.

* Investors await U.S. durable goods data and 4-week jobless claims at 1230 GMT.

* Shares of Nike (NKE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rose more than 5 percent in extended trade on Wednesday after earnings from the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company beat Wall Street estimates.

* A spike in trading volumes after a short-selling ban by U.S. regulators caused glitches that led to electronic exchanges cancelling trades last Friday, the Wall Street Journal said.

* The Commodity Futures Trading Commission confirms that there is an investigation into possible market manipulation in the silver market, the newspaper added. (Editing by Quentin Bryar)





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HK shares finish flat on U.S. concern; BEA recovers

* Bank of East Asia shares rebound 3.4 percent

* Small local lender falls on high interbank rate

* Turnover drops amid doubts over U.S. bank bailout plan (Updates to close)

By Parvathy Ullatil & Joseph Chaney

HONG KONG, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares gave up early gains to finish flat on Thursday amid doubts over U.S. congressional approval for a $700 billion bank bailout plan, but Bank of East Asia (0023.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rebounded a day after plummeting on denied rumours of financial distress.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI finished down 27.56 points at 18,934.43 after rallying to 19,248.72 earlier in the day.

"There is a lot of concern over whether the rescue package will be approved and even if it is, there are doubts over whether this will succeed in securing the financial system," said Ben Kwong, COO with KGI Asia.

Mainboard turnover fell to HK$52.2 billion ($6.7 billion) from HK$59 billion on Wednesday.

The China Enterprises Index .HSCE of top locally listed mainland Chinese firms gained 0.3 percent to 9,764.52, propped up by China Life (2628.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) as investors hoped for progress on Chinese stock market reforms and more government support.

Bank of East Asia jumped as much as 5.6 percent in morning trade after it denied rumours about its financial stability that had prompted thousands of customers to withdraw cash at its branches Wednesday night. The stock finished on Thursday up 3.4 percent at HK$26 after tumbling 6.9 percent on Wednesday.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said the rumours were unfounded and that it would provide liquidity to the bank if necessary. [ID:nHKG187731].

But small and mid-cap lenders in Hong Kong closed lower as the Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR), the rate at which banks lend to each other, stayed high threatening margins at local banks.

Shares in Wing Lung Bank (0096.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 1.4 percent while Wing Hang Bank (0302.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) dropped 2.5 percent.

Shares in China's largest life insurer, China Life, jumped 2.5 percent, trailing a 7.9 percent jump in its Shanghai-listed A-shares. Smaller rival Ping An (2318.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) gained 1.2 percent.

China's benchmark stock index .SSEC rose 3.6 percent to its highest in three weeks, buoyed by share buybacks by state-owned firms and by signs of progress in market reforms [ID:nBJB000494]

China Railway Group (0390.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (601390.SS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the country's largest railway and highway builder, climbed 3.2 percent after it said four of its subsidiaries had won four contracts worth a total of 2.28 billion yuan ($334 million).

The value of the contracts is equivalent to 1.27 percent of the company's 2007 sales under domestic accounting standards, the company said in a filing carried by the official Shanghai Securities News. [ID:nSHA183754]

China's top aluminum producer Chalco (2600.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 1.8 percent. Officials from Chinese aluminium smelters, alumina refineries and trading firms said at a conference in Chongqing this week that prices would stay at levels well below marginal costs, unless smelters significantly cut back output. [ID:nHKG169082].

(US$1=HK$7.8)

(Reporting by Parvathy Ullatil; Editing by Ken Wills)





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Europe stocks higher as insurers, banks gain

* FTSEurofirst 300 up 1.2 percent

* AXA leads insurers higher; banks rebound

* Defensive drugmakers higher

* Energy shares track weaker crude

By Joanne Frearson

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - European shares rose early on Thursday, led by banks and insurers and tracking gains in U.S. index futures on hopes for an emergency meeting to hammer out details of a rescue plan for the financial sector.

By 0910 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 1.4 percent at 1,116.81 points in choppy trade, rebounding from a low of 1,100.56. The index has fallen nearly 27 percent this year.

Insurers were among the top gainers in Europe after AXA (AXAF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Chief Executive Henri de Castries told Europe 1 radio that the current crisis offers the group opportunities to strengthen its market position. Axa was 3.3 percent higher.

Swiss Re (RUKN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) was 3.1 percent higher after the group said its investment portfolio remains sound despite tough financial markets and reaffirmed its targets as additional writedowns were lower many had expected.

Banks were stronger, with Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) gaining 3.5 percent and UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) adding 4.3 percent.

Uncertainty continued in the banking sector as investors grew anxious about when the $700 billion rescue plan for the U.S. financial sector will be approved by Congress.

"There is still uncertainty about U.S. Treasury's bail out phase. There needs to be quick action, it is important that investors know what is going to be done about it as the alternatives are too dire," said Bernard McAlinden, market strategist at NCB Stockbrokers.

An emergency meeting has been called for Thursday by U.S. President George Bush to hammer out details.

"That (the meeting) is the key to make things happen. There is great value in the market. In the U.K. the dividend yield has exceeded the yield on gilts and value is emerging as well in Europe," said Mike Lenhoff, strategist at Brewin Dolphin.

"What is lacking is the confidence. The bail out could help provide it - that the fundamentals are being addressed," added Lenhoff.

Across Europe, the FTSE 100 .FTSE index was ahead 0.6 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI was up 1.3 percent and France's CAC 40 .FCHI was 1.3 percent higher.

ENERGY SHARES FALL; DEFENSIVE DRUGMAKERS GAIN

Energy stocks slipped as crude CLc1 fell back 1.1 percent to $104.57. Analysts said that evidence of slowing demand in the United States, the world's largest energy consumer, and lingering uncertainty over the bank bailout plan, will probably keep gains in check.

BG Group (BG.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSb.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) were down between 0.6-1 percent.

Miners were mixed. Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rose 2.8 percent, while Eurasian Natural Resources (ENRC.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 3.3 percent and Lonmin (LMI.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) lost 1.4 percent.

The pharmaceutical sector also performed well as investors decided to take a defensive stance.

Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Novartis (NOVN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) were trading between 0.4-1.7 percent higher. (Editing by David Cowell)





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Nikkei down as shippers sink, market wary on bailout

*Nikkei slips 0.9 percent, automakers drag

*Shippers sink after key freight index hits 20-mth low

*Worry about U.S. financial bailout sidelines investors (Adds stocks, details)

By Elaine Lies

TOKYO, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average lost 0.9 percent on Thursday as Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd (9104.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and other shippers sank after a key freight index fell, while worry about the U.S. financial sector bailout weighed on the market.

While Congress was considering how and when to act about a proposed $700 billion bailout, U.S. markets were in turmoil. Investors stampeded into cash and safe-haven assets, and experts said banks were hoarding cash, fearful that if they loaned money to other banks it might not be repaid. [ID:nN24478809] Tokyo investors remained on the sidelines, keeping volume thin and making movements volatile after U.S. President George W. Bush warned in a speech of looming economic disaster if Congress failed to act swiftly. [ID:nN24444366].

"The big problem is that in many ways the market has already factored in the fact of the bailout so the issue now is how concrete it will be," said Norihiro Fujito, general manager of the investment research and information division at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

"With problems likely when they actually carry it out, expect volatile conditions to continue."

Automakers slid on growing worries about the U.S. economy, where car sales have fallen sharply, while other investors turned to defensive stocks such as pharmaceuticals in the face of rising global economic woe.

But the Nikkei regained some ground after falling as much as 2 percent, echoing its Wednesday flip into positive territory in the last moment of trade.

Market participants said fund managers appeared to be buying to improve the value of their portfolios ahead of the end of the April-September first half next week, a practice known as window dressing.

"There was really no reason for the Nikkei to rise yesterday afternoon or to pare its losses as much as it did this morning, aside from this," Fujito said. Wednesday was also the last day on which investors were able to buy many Japanese stocks and still receive dividends for the first half.

"At least part of today's slide.... was due to ex-dividend impact, so things aren't really as bad as they seem," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments. The benchmark Nikkei .N225 shed 108.50 points to 12,006.53, while the broader Topix was down 1.2 percent to 1,153.95.

SHIPS, CARS

Shipping companies sank after the Baltic Exchange's chief sea freight index for global raw materials trade .BADI dropped more than 6 percent to a 20-month low on Wednesday, hurt by troubled financial markets, weaker commodity prices and concerns over Asian demand.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines fell 6.3 percent to 1,010 yen and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) lost 5.6 percent to 722 yen. Nippon Yusen (9101.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) skidded 5.7 percent to 758 yen.

Honda Motor Co (7267.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 3.8 percent to 3,300 yen, making it the biggest drag on the Nikkei 225 by volume weight. Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) slid 2.5 percent to 4,690 yen.

Pharmaceutical shares extended gains made a day earlier, with Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) up 0.7 percent to 5,440 yen and Eisai Co Ltd (4523.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) edging 0.5 percent higher to 4,170 yen. Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4519.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rose 2.2 percent to 1,706 yen.

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings (3099.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Japan's largest department store, gained 2.3 percent to 1,264 yen after saying it planned to close six stores in its first big restructuring since its creation in a merger earlier this year.

Trade was thin, with 1.6 billion shares changing hands on the Tokyo stock exchange's first section, compared to last week's daily average of 2.46 billion. Declining shares outnumbered advancing ones by more than two to one. (Reporting by Elaine Lies; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)





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FTSE dips early as weak banks offset drug gains

* FTSE down 0.2 percent in early trade

* Banks decline as uncertainty on U.S. bailout continues

* Defensive pharmaceuticals gain ground

By Simon Falush

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The UK's leading share index edged lower in early trade on Thursday as losses in the troubled banking sector offset gains in defensive pharmaceuticals companies.

By 0802 GMT the FTSE 100 was down 0.2 percent or 7.9 points at 5,088.9 points after losing 0.8 percent on Wednesday.

The index has fallen 9.5 percent so far in September and is on track for its biggest monthly decline in six years as fears about the health of the global financial system intensify.

Banking stocks fell as continuing uncertainty about when Congress might approve a $700 billion financial sector bailout weighed on the embattled sector.

In an attempt to convince Americans to support the Wall Street rescue package, President George W. Bush warned on Wednesday that the United States was in the middle of a serious financial crisis that could push the economy into recession. [ID:nN24444366]

"The only show in town is the U.S. bailout, and it's see-sawing as to whether it will get through," said Richard Hunter, head of UK equities at Hargreaves Lansdown. "The longer it goes on the more uncertainty there will be... and if there's one thing the market hates it's uncertainty."

Lloyds TSB (LLOY.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 2.4 percent after Deutsche Bank downgraded it to "sell" from "hold" and cut its price target to 200 pence from 250 pence.

Standard Chartered (STAN.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell between 0.5 and 2.4 percent.

Gloom on the banking sector is spreading to the wider economy, with the credit crunch seen as forcing consumers to draw in their horns.

Iconic high street retailer Marks & Spencer (MKS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 2.4 percent, while Next (NXT.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) lost 0.9 percent.

Supermarkets were also on the back foot with Tesco (TSCO.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) down 0.9 percent and Morrison MMRW.L losing 0.2 percent and Sainsbury (SBRY.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) down 0.6 percent.

Leading supermarkets and consumer goods businesses are facing the threat of heavy fines after the Office of Fair Trading confirmed it had found evidence of companies sharing price plans, the Financial Times said.

Energy stocks fell even as oil CLc1 rose above $106 per barrel. Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) British Gas (BG.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 0.8 percent while BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) lost 0.6 percent.

The Times reported that Robert Dudley, current chief executive of TNK-BP may quit the British oil group's board as the hunt for a new boss for the Russian joint venture hots up.

OIL PRICE WEIGHS

The higher oil prices pressured British Airways (BAY.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) which fell 1.1 percent.

Thomas Cook (TCG.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) slid 7.9 percent after German stores and tourism holding company Arcandor (AROG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said it may lower its stake in the company.

Pharmaceuticals, seen as defensive stocks and attractive at times of market uncertainty, were the FTSE 100's biggest weighted gainers with AstraZeneca (AZN.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) up 1 percent and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) up 0.8 percent.

In the FTSE 250 the Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGOa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 8.4 percent after it said it sees full-year adjusted results at the low end of market expectations as a deteriorating UK economy hits its ad sales and property information business. [ID:nWLA0174]

The world's largest hotelier Intercontinental Hotels (IHG.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) gained 0.5 percent after chief executive Andrew Cosslett told Reuters in an interview it has not yet seen an impact on its development pipeline from the credit crisis. [ID:nN24471383] (Editing by Hans Peters)





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Dollar Down As Congress Expresses Concern Over Bailout

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Finotec Group | Sep 25 08 09:01 GMT |

The dollar was down against the euro and the yen on Thursday as uncertainty continued to prevail regarding the U.S government's proposed $700 billion rescue package for banks. President George W. Bush stated on Wednesday that the states were in the middle of a serious financial crisis and could face a 'painful' recession. On Wednesday Fed Chairman Bernanke stated that 'extraordinary stress' in financial markets was hitting the U.S. economy hard. Concern that congress could delay the bailout decision has weighed on the dollar, pushing it lower. 'The market's main points of concern are comments from top U.S officials, the details of the bailout package, and how soon Congress will pass it', said the senior manager of foreign exchange sales for a Tokyo bank. At 8.38am GMT EUR/USD was at 1.4708 and USD/JPY was trading at 105.89.

Meanwhile in London, Sterling was up against the greenback after a Bank of England policy maker, Andrew Sentance, stated that the countries inflation mandate must be adhered to. Sentance remarked on Wednesday that policy makers must guard against ``allowing the economic slowdown to develop into a deflationary spiral which would not be consistent with our mandate to meet the 2 percent inflation target.'' With the next interest rate decision out on the 9th of October, there is increased speculation that that the Bank of England will cut rates from the current 5%. GBP/USD was trading at 1.8597 at 8.40am GMT.

Eyes will be on important data releases today in the U.S to determine the direction of the greenback. At 1.30pm GMT Core durables orders and unemployment claims will be released. The expectation is that both releases will reinforce pessimism about the economy in the States and may put downward pressure on the dollar. In addition, data on the sales of new houses in the U.S are expected to have fallen last month to 510,000 from 515,000 in July. This report is out at 3.00pm GMT.

Economic Calendar

Time (GMT) E Event Currency Period Previous Previous Significance
23:45 FOMC Member Plosser Speaks USD


**
23:30 Core CPI y/y JPY Sep 1.5% 1.5% **
23:30 Core CPI y/y JPY Aug 2.4% 2.4% **
23:30 FOMC Member Fisher Speaks USD


**
22:45 GDP q/q NZD Quarterly -0.3% -0.5% ***
17:00 BOC Governor Carney Speaks CAD


***
16:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies USD


****
14:35 Natural Gas Storage USD
67B

14:00 New Home Sales USD Aug 515K 510K ***
12:30 Core Durable Goods Orders m/m USD Aug 0.7% -0.5% ****
12:30 Unemployment Claims USD Weekly 455.0K 448.0K ***
12:30 Durable Goods Orders m/m USD Aug 1.3% -1.6% **
08:00 Trade Balance EUR Jul -1.03B 0.50B
08:00 M3 Money Supply y/y EUR Aug 9.3% 9.0% **
08:00 Private Loans y/y EUR Aug 9.4% 8.9%

Finotec Group Inc.
http://www.finotec.com/

Disclaimer: FINOTEC Tradings Market Commentaries are provided for informational purposes only. The information contained within these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and not intended as investment advice. FINOTEC Trading assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein.


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Market Turns Dollar Negative As Bailout Deal Nears

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Global Forex Trading | Sep 25 08 09:47 GMT |

Top Stories

  • Bush pleads with American public to support bailout
  • Congressional leaders said to have draft of legislation ready to go by Friday
  • Dollar weaker across the board as markets worry bailout deal ultimately dollar negative
  • South China Morning Post reports that Chinese banks told not to lend to US institutions
  • SCMP report later denied by China Banking Regulatory Commission
  • Oil steady at $106/bbl
  • Gold at $890 remains close to $900 handle

Overnight Eco

  • NZD CA/GDP ratio –8.4% vs. –7.9% forecast
  • JPY Merchandise Trade -.11T yen turns negative on sharp drop in exports to US, first monthly deficit since 1982
  • EUR German Consumer Confidence 1.8 vs. 1.5
  • EUR M3Money Supply 8.8% vs. 8.9% projected
  • EUR Italian Trade Balance much better at 2.07B vs.0.5B expected

Event Risk on Tap

  • USD Durable Goods market looks at –1.5% against 1.3% prior
  • USD New Home Sales 510K vs. 515K forecast
  • NZD Q2 GDP expected 0.6%

Price Action

  • USD/JPY drops below 106.00 despite horrid Trade numbers as focus remains on dilutive potential of bailout
  • AUD/USD very quiet as 8400 remains a hurdle
  • GBP/USD blows through 1.8600 but offers cap the move as 1.8700 next key level
  • EUR/USD takes out 1.4750 in early Europe as markets sentiment turns dollar bearish

Market Turns Dollar Negative as Bailout Deal Nears

EUR/USD rallied steadily in early European tradeafter comments by Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank that House and Senate Democrats have agreed on an approach to implement the U.S. Treasury plan to rescue financial institutions. Congressman Frank stated that Democrats will now negotiate with Republicans indicating that a legislative response to the bailout proposal by Treasury Secretary Paulson may come as soon as this week-end.

The last several days of Congressional hearings revealed that key details on the valuation process of Mr. Paulson's proposal remain missing. Furthermore, unlike prior US government rescue efforts which contained clear cut structures such as interest rate payment terms on loans and equity warrant participation measures, Mr. Paulson proposal looks more like blind pool offering rather than a conventional financial deal. Granted, while the purpose of the $700B will be limited to purchasing MBS assets, Mr. Paulson was unclear as to which of the seemingly endless variety of securitized instruments the Treasury will invest in raising questions regarding the execution of the government's proposed policy initiative.

In short, the currency market went from worrying about whether the bailout deal will be done at all, to becoming more concerned about the plan's impact on capital markets. It is far from clear whether Mr. Paulson's proposal will have the intended calming effect on the credit markets as TED spreads remain near record highs while the dilutive possibilities of additional $700 Billion in US debt could continue to weigh in the dollar going forward.

The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.4769 before retreating to 1.4700 on profit taking and standing offers at the 1.4800 level. The 1.4800 level has now become key resistance as this was a prior level of support before the pair's dramatic collapse in late August. Should the euro take out and hold the 1.4800 figure, it will no doubt signal the currency market's skepticism regarding the efficacy of Mr. Paulson's plan.

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
USD 8:30 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (AUG) -1.5% 1.3%
USD 14:00 10:00 USD New Home Sales (AUG) 510k 515k

Boris Schlossberg
http://www.gftforex.com

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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Euro-Zone M3 Falls, Euro-Dollar (EURUSD) Holds Ground

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Sep 25 08 09:00 GMT |

Eurozone M3 money supply growth slowed to 8.8% y/y in August. July data were revised down to 9.1% from 9.3% reported initially. The 3-months moving average, the ECB's preferred target, slowed to 9.2% from 9.6% in the three months to July. At the same time the annual rate of growth of loans to the private sector decreased to 8.8% in August from 9.4% in the previous month. Data are lower than anticipated and the renewed decline in both M3 as well as loan growth suggests that inflation pressures from the monetary side are slowly receding. However, at 9.2% the 3 months rate remains far above the reference value of 4.5%. Equally, at 8.8% the rate of loans to the private sector is robust, with not sign of a credit crunch. So data may point to increased room for rate cuts ahead, but are unlikely to prompt an immediate change of heart at the central bank. Bond futures continued their decline after the release. Meanwhile, the euro-dollar (EURUSD) has recently dipped to hit an intraday low of 1.4695, but has bounced back to hold around 1.4710.

DailyFX

Disclaimer

Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.


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Currency Pair Daily Forecasts

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Finotec Group | Sep 25 08 09:41 GMT |

EUR/USD Daily Technical Reports

EUR/USD-market strategy can be a buy from the level 1.4638$

Technical oscillators supporting the bullish trend for the currency pair

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines have made a bearish cross above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is bullish approaching over bought levels.

USD/JPY Daily Technical Reports

USD/JPY-market strategy can be a sell from the level 106.01

Technical oscillators supporting the bearish trend for the currency pair

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD approaching a possible bullish cross below the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is stable.

GBP/USD Daily Technical Reports

GBP/USD-market strategy can be a buy from the level 1.8508$

Technical oscillators supporting the bullish trend for the currency pair

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines have approached a bearish cross above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bullish approaching over bought levels

USD/CHF Daily Technical Reports

USD/CHF-market strategy can be a sell below the level 1.0899

Technical oscillators supporting the bearish trend for the currency pair

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines have made a bullish cross below the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bullish direction.

Finotec Group Inc.
http://www.finotec.com/

Disclaimer: FINOTEC Tradings Market Commentaries are provided for informational purposes only. The information contained within these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and not intended as investment advice. FINOTEC Trading assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein.





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Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Sep 25 08 09:24 GMT |

EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.4670, 1.4647 and 1.4622(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4603, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4583. Break of the latter would result in 1.4556. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4532. Continuation will give 1.4507 and 1.4492.

Today's resistance: - 1.4771(main). Break would give 1.4804, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4816. Break of the latter would result in 1.4832. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4850. Continuation will give 1.4873 and 1.4904.

USD/JPY

Today's support: - 105.30, 105.01 and 104.83(main). Break would bring 104.51, where correction is possible. Then 104.25. If a strong impulse, we would see 103.82. Continuation would give 103.67 and 103.50.

Today's resistance: - 105.98, 106.27, 106.46 and 106.78(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 107.12, where also a correction may be. Then 107.33. If a strong impulse, we would see 107.52. Continuation will give 107.78 and 108.04.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 10 800.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10 766.28, where correction also can be. Then follows 10 743.75. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 10 704.38. Continuation will bring 10 670.63 и 10 636.87.

Today's resistance: - 10 890.00, 10 913.60 and 10 935.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10 974.36, where a correction may happen. Then follows 11 008.10, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 11 033.62. Continuation would bring 11 070.23, 11 117.64 и 11 160.00.

FXtechtrade
http://www.fxtechtrade.com

Disclaimer: Any information presented by Nikolajs Serikovs at this very website should be in no way understood as an offer, promise or guarantee for receiving a profit or avoiding the losses. Stated here levels of support and resistance must not be construed as an investment advice or endorsement for any financial instrument. There exists no guarantee that the market would behave in accordance with the information stated here Prepared in Republic of Latvia for the worldwide distribution.






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Forex Technical Analytics

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FOREX Ltd | Sep 25 08 08:21 GMT |

CHF

The earlier opened positions for sell had a positive result at the attainment of minimal assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked the minimal bearish activity rise is favorable for bearish planning priority but considering the general low activity level of both parties we assume the possibility of pair return to the bottom of Ichimoku cloud at 1.0900/20, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.0820/40, 1.0760/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.0700/20, 1.0620/40. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.1000 with targets 1.1060/80, 1.1120/40, 1.1180/1.1200.

GBP

The pre-planned buying positions from the key supports were realized with attainment of basic assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having preserved the low activity level of both parties gives reasons as before for assumptions about range rate movement without definiteness in the choice of planning priorities for today. Hence considering the long-term bullish direction we assume the possibility of pair return to the upper boundary of Ichimoku cloud at 1.8400/20, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.8480/1.8500, 1.8560/80, 1.8640/60 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.8700/20, 1.8780/1.8800. An alternative for sells will be below 1.8360 with targets 1.8300/20, 1.8240/60, 1+8180/1.8200.

JPY

The pre-planned positions for sell from the key support ranges were realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked the preservation of both parties low activity level supports as before assumptions about range rate movement in the close outlook without definiteness in choice of planning priorities for today. Hence we assume the possibility of further test at 106.00/20 resistance range, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 105.50/60, 105.00/20, 104.60/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 104.00/20, 103.40/60. An alternative for buyers will be above 106.60 with targets 107.00/20, 107.60/80, 108.00/20.

EUR

The earlier opened and preserved long positions had a positive result at minimal calculated targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked the low activity level of both parties keeps supporting assumptions on further rate range movement without definiteness in choice of planning priorities for today. Hence we assume the possibility of Ichimoku cloud upper boundary test at 1.4600/20, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.4660/80, 1.4720/40, 1.4800/20, 1.4860/80 and/or further breakout variant above 1.4900 with targets 1.4940/60, 1.5000/20. An alternative for sells will be below 1.4480 with targets 1.4420/40, 1.360/80.

FOREX Ltd
www.forexltd.co.uk





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Currency Technical Report

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX Greece | Sep 25 08 09:17 GMT |

EUR/USD

Resistance : 1,4710-20/ 1,4760-70/ 1,4820/ 1,4860/ 1,4900/ 1,4950
Support : 1,4640/ 1,4615/ 1,4580/ 1,4550/ 1,4520/ 1,4500/ 1,4470

Comment: The sideways consolidation continues, after the sharp rise towards 1,4860 area, which was slightly higher from the important support levels we had set at 1,4580-00 area.

There is nothing new to add to our previous two analysis. The reaction from 1,3900 in the daily chart does not seem completed, and the areas of 1,4940-60 and 1,5030-50 are the next targets in case of an upward break of the consolidation, while the area of 1,4500 will be the target, if the upward reaction proves to be completed.

TRADING EUR/USD

SWING TRADING : We prefer the scenario, in which the reaction is not completed, and a pullback to previous tops is possible. As a result, we remain to our yesterday scenario : We keep a small part of our positions open, while buy orders could be tried again at 1,4510-50, setting our stops below 1,4450. Above 1,4900 we will close all buy positions and try again sell positions from 1,4950 to 1,5050 area, with stops above 1,5150...

INTRADAY TRADING : We will try buy positions in the pullbacks towards 1,4650-70 (stops below 1,4630), adding positions in case of an upward break of 1,4750. Target will be the area of 1,4810-20 and 1,4860.

GBP/USD

Resistance : 1,8570-80/ 1,8620/ 1,8660-70/ 1,8700/ 1,8740/ 1,8770/ 1,8800
Support : 1,8480-00/ 1,8435/ 1,8385-90/ 1,8350/ 1,8320.

Comment : Similar outlook for the pound. There is nothing new to add to our previous analysis. Possible target is still the area of 1,8770-00.

TRADING GBP/USD : We keep our previous scenario : 'We will try small buy positions within the sideways consolidation, expecting an upward break. We will set our stops below 1,8450. In case of a clear upward break of 1,8640, we will follow with new buy positions and targets at 1,8720-30 and 1,8770. A possible upward move until 1,8770-00 will be used for sell orders...

A downward break of 1,8450 will be used for sell positions, with targets at 1,8370-80 area.

USDJPY

USDCHF

FX Greece

DISCLAIMER

  1. The details and information included in the above analysis, are part of research based exclusively on currency charts and are of purely instructional and educational nature. None of the information featuring in the analysis can be considered as an invitation for opening positions in FOREX market or in the market of forward contracts or any securities listed on an organized or unorganized market.
  2. We assume no responsibility for any kind of losses ,profits or property loss resulting, in whole or in part, from acts that are based either directly or indirectly on the processing or the use of information, details and strategies, the reader may find in the analysis. The readers hold full responsibility for the use and the results of their actions.
  3. The recipients of the analysis must acknowledge and accept that investment choices of any kind, especially concerning the FOREX market, contain risks (high, low and occasionally zero) of reduction or even loss of their investment. Therefore, they should always be cautious prior to any kind of action.
  4. We reserve the right to change the terms and the characteristics of the analysis.
  5. The contents of the analysis are solely intended for personal use. They may not be retransmitted, reproduced, distributed, published, adapted, modified or assigned to third parties in any way whatsoever. Anyone having access to them is required to comply with the law provisions on the protection of third party intellectual property rights.

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Japan May Have Average to Warmer-Than-Average Weather From Dec.

By Megumi Yamanaka

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan may have average to warmer- than average temperatures this winter in the three months starting December, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

Average rainfall is expected in the period, the Tokyo-based weather agency said today on its Web site.

The agency, a branch of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, releases its forecast each year. The following is its forecast of temperature probabilities in Japan in the December to February period.

Lower than Average Higher than

average Northern Japan 30% 40% 30% Eastern Japan 20% 40% 40% Western Japan 20% 40% 40% Southwestern Islands 20% 30% 50%

To contact the reporter on this story: Megumi Yamanaka in Tokyo at myamanaka@bloomberg.net.



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Shell Shuts Gasoline Unit at Pernis Refinery on Fault

By Nidaa Bakhsh

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc was forced to shut a gasoline-making unit at Pernis, Europe's largest oil refinery, after a fault occurred last night.

``The cat cracker tripped because of a mechanical fault and went offline,'' Shell spokesman Wim van de Wiel said in a telephone interview today from The Hague, where the company is based. Production of gasoline and components that go into the motor fuel have stopped as a result of the fault, he said.

The fault was detected around 8:30 p.m. local time yesterday and resulted in the release of a very fine grain-like sand into surrounding areas, Van de Wiel said. Shell, Europe's biggest oil producer, is investigating the cause, he said.

The refinery has the capacity to process 416,000 barrels of oil a day and is located near Rotterdam in the Netherlands.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nidaa Bakhsh in London at nbakhsh@bloomberg.net



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U.K. Faces Power Shortage on Nuclear, Coal-Plants

By Paul Dobson

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K., Europe's second-largest economy, risks power shortages and a jump in electricity costs this winter because of corroded wires and other repairs at nuclear reactors and pollution rules that keep coal plants idle.

The nation's electric grid has so little spare capacity that the loss of any one of its 15 largest power stations at a time of peak demand risks forcing factories to shut down to save energy, data from network manager National Grid Plc show. The last time that happened, in May, wholesale electricity costs jumped 13 percent in a day.

U.K. power prices for this winter are already more than double a year ago after British Energy Group Plc closed two of its eight nuclear power stations and extended maintenance at others, while curbs on sulfur dioxide emissions forced coal-fed plants to cut operating hours. One of the reasons the government supported Electricite de France SA's 12.5 billion-pound ($23-billion) agreement yesterday to buy British Energy was its pledge to build Britain's first atomic plants since 1995.

``On paper, it looks like we're going to be very tight, potentially looking at another brownout,'' said Paul Love, an analyst at Dunfermline, Scotland-based McKinnon & Clarke, which advises companies on energy prices.

National Grid said last week that surplus power supplies this winter will be as little as 1,373 megawatts, or 2.5 percent of consumption. The amount represents what's left after the grid meets peak demand and maintains a margin to provide reliable service.

Limited Flexibility

The estimates leave little flexibility. The grid's forecast is based on information provided by the country's electricity generators. Peak demand for the week of Nov. 3 is forecast at 55,300 megawatts.

Winter baseload power, the contract traded via energy brokers guaranteeing around-the-clock deliveries, touched 103.75 pounds-a-megawatt-hour yesterday, more than double the 43 pounds-a- megawatt-hour price for winter a year ago. November baseload power traded at 115.10 pounds a megawatt hour yesterday, the highest price for a monthly contract since at least 2001.

The forecast indicates that for now there's enough generation available, said Stewart Larque, a Warwick, England-based spokesman for National Grid.

``The reason why it is published is so that people can make the right decisions,'' he said. ``If the figures were negative, that's when it becomes a signal to the market to make more capacity available.''

Demand and Prices

Electricity can't be stored, so production needs to continually meet demand. The power grid has spare plants that only run at times when demand and prices are at their highest. Mothballed generators can return to service if the cushion threatens to disappear, Larque said.

``It only takes a few unplanned outages to push it the other way,'' said McKinnon & Clarke's Love.

Supplies may push prices to ``the sort of level that forces industrial demand off the system,'' said Jeremy Nicholson, the director of the Energy Intensive Users Group, whose members include the steel and glass industries. ``We are heading in that direction.''

Day-ahead baseload power prices this month have been as high as 124.50 pounds a megawatt hour, the highest since March 2006, and more than three times costs the same time last year. The next-day contract traded at 99 pounds a megawatt hour as of 8:35 a.m. in London today.

National Grid said on May 27, the day when the shutdown of British Energy's 1,200-megawatt Sizewell-B power plant caused supply interruptions in parts of England, that steps to reduce demand were imminent because of insufficient spare supplies. It was the first such notice since 2006. This year it has warned five times that spare supplies aren't adequate in addition to the demand-reduction notice.

Upgrading Plants

Scottish & Southern Energy Plc and International Power Plc are upgrading plants to comply with restrictions on gas emissions. They may resume normal output in the coming months.

``Until that work has been completed, presumably there's some risk,'' Nicholson said.

British Energy plans to start four reactors in the fourth quarter that have been closed for a year because of corroded wires.

Those plants may be needed. Winter temperatures may be colder than normal, according to Jim Dales, senior forecaster at British Weather Services, which sells forecasts to businesses including energy companies.

November and December may be milder, while January and February may ``deliver significantly below-average temperatures,'' he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net





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Tanganyika Gets $1.8 Billion Sinopec Takeover Offer

By Marianne Stigset and Winnie Zhu

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Tanganyika Oil Co., a Canadian oil and natural gas producer with operations in Syria and Egypt, said China Petrochemical Corp. made a takeover offer valuing the company at C$1.9 billion ($1.8 billion).

An offer for C$31.50 a share in cash was made by Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of China Petrochemical, Tanganyika said in a statement to the Stockholm stock exchange today.

Chinese state oil companies are seeking energy assets overseas to meet rising demand from the world's fastest-growing major economy. Citic Resources Holdings Ltd., a unit of China's fourth-biggest oil producer, bought an oil field in Kazakhstan for $1 billion in June last year.

``The acquisition could be a big breakthrough for the Chinese oil giant in terms of its overseas expansion strategy,'' Wang Jing, an oil analyst with Orient Securities Co., said by telephone in Shanghai today. ``China should continue acquiring good overseas assets to safeguard energy supplies.''

Tanganyika's board unanimously recommends the offer, the company said in the statement. The shares rose 32.5 kronor, or 21 percent, to 186 kronor as of 9:52 a.m. in Stockholm trading. They closed at C$26 in Toronto yesterday.

The offer, at a 21 percent premium to yesterday's closing price, looks ``reasonable,'' Wang said.

Zhang Zhiguo, spokesman of China Petrochemical, also known as Sinopec Group, declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News. Sinopec Group is the parent of Hong Kong-listed China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.

African Operations

Tanganyika, partly owned by Sweden's Lundin family, takes its name from a former East African republic located by Lake Tanganyika, now part of Tanzania. The company was registered as Canadian Lynx Petroleum Ltd. until 1995.

The Vancouver-based company holds operating interests in two Syrian production-sharing agreements covering the Oudeh and Tishrine/Sheikh Mansour blocks.

To contact the reporter on this story: Marianne Stigset in Oslo at mstigset@bloomberg.net





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Repsol Gains on Report Total, Shell May Consider Making Bid

By Charles Penty and Brian McGee

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Repsol YPF SA rose in Madrid trading after Expansion said Total SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are studying the possibility of buying the Spanish oil company, citing unidentified people close to the conversations.

Repsol climbed as much as 56 cents, or 2.7 percent, to 20.99 euros, and traded at 20.63 euros as of 9:24 a.m. local time. Builder Sacyr Vallehermoso SA has said it may put its 20 percent stake in Madrid-based Repsol up for sale, which has spurred the interest of Total and Shell, the newspaper said.

A Repsol spokesman, who declined to be identified in line with company policy, said Repsol understands Sacyr doesn't wish to sell its stake. Total spokeswoman Lisa Wyler said she couldn't comment on the report. Shell couldn't immediately be reached.

Sacyr, Spain's fifth-biggest construction company, rose as much as 37 cents, or 3 percent, to 12.67 euros and last changed hands at 12.55 euros as of 9:25 a.m. in Madrid.

Sacyr's position is unchanged from Sept. 12, when the company said it was considering ``various alternatives'' for its Repsol holdings and other investments, the builder said in a regulatory filing today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Charles Penty in Madrid at cpenty@bloomberg.net; Brian McGee in Madrid at bmcgee3@bloomberg.net



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Shell, BP to Shut Refineries for Repair, Cut Europe Fuel Supply

By Nidaa Bakhsh

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc and Total SA are leading oil companies that will shut at least 6 percent of Europe's refining for repairs next month, reducing inventories already diminished by U.S. demand after Hurricane Ike.

The outages from Rotterdam to Italy will idle at least 952,000 barrels of crude oil distillation a day in October, double the September figure, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The total includes plants owned by Shell and BP in the Netherlands, representing a combined 400,000 barrels a day.

Refinery profits in western Europe fell to their lowest level since at least 2004 this year as record prices cut fuel demand. Gasoline inventories fell 18 percent to 612,000 metric tons in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region last week, according to Dutch consultant PJK International BV, because of rising exports to the U.S. after Hurricane Ike shut Gulf Coast refineries.

``Over the last five years, planned crude distillation unit outages tended to average 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day at this time of year,'' Harry Tchilinguirian, senior oil analyst at BNP Paribas SA, said in a telephone interview from London. In October 2007, refinery outages peaked at 1.2 million barrels a day.

Full shutdowns will occur during the next two months at StatoilHydro ASA's complex in Mongstad, Norway; Galp Energia SGPS SA's Sines refinery in Portugal; Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Trecate facility in Italy and Tamoil SA's plants in Cremona, Italy and Hamburg.

European refining margins, or the profit made from turning a barrel of crude into fuels, recovered to $4.13 a barrel last month from $1.39 a barrel in July after hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

Partial Outages

Aside from crude-processing units, shutdowns affecting other parts of refineries during this month and next, such as fluid catalytic crackers, will further reduce fuel production, with maintenance at Chevron Corp.'s Pembroke refinery in Wales and Neste Oil Oyj's Porvoo plant in Finland.

Shell was forced to shut a gasoline-making unit last night at Pernis, Europe's largest oil refinery, after a fault occurred, spokesman Wim van de Wiel said in a telephone interview today from The Hague. The refinery is located in the Netherlands.

Other plants in the Mediterranean region that have scheduled partial shutdowns include Total's French refinery in La Mede, Eni SpA's Gela plant in Italy and Repsol YPF SA's Spanish facilities in Bilbao and La Coruna.

Spain's Compania Espanola de Petroleos SA said yesterday it will start maintenance on a gasoline-making unit at its Gibraltar refinery next month.

Increased plant maintenance earlier this year coupled with rising crude oil costs caused a surge in fuel prices that led to European-wide protests by fishermen and truckers. New York crude oil futures rose to a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 and were trading near $104 today. U.S. pump prices for gasoline rose to a record $4.114 a gallon in mid July, motoring group AAA said.

Wholeseale gasoline prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region rose to a record $1,192 a ton July 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price has since dropped 24 percent. Diesel also peaked in July, at $1,346 a ton, before falling back.

The following table shows the owner, name, location, total processing capacity in barrels a day, shutdown dates and reason for halt. The information has been provided by refinery operators.


Neste Oil Oyj            Aug. 15 - Oct. 2         Fourth diesel
Porvoo, Finland line closes for
196,000 repairs.

Tamoil SA Sept. Full shutdown.
Hamburg, Germany
105,000

Tamoil SA Sept. Full shutdown
Cremona, Italy for two weeks.
95,000

Eni SpA Sept. CDU, coker runs
Gela, Italy cut by 80
100,000 percent.

StatoilHydro ASA Sept. 1 - Oct. 15 Crude unit
Mongstad, Norway shuts for 2
189,000 weeks.

Chevron Corp. Sept. 15 - Oct. 31 FCC shuts.
Pembroke, Wales
220,000

Repsol YPF SA Sept. 15 - Oct. 15 FCC shuts.
La Coruna, Spain
120,000

Galp Energia SGPS SA Sept. 16 - Oct. 26 Full shutdown.
Sines, Portugal
202,000

Royal Dutch Shell Plc End Sept. - Mid. Nov. CDU, capacity
Pernis, Netherlands 200,000 b/d,
416,000 shuts.
Sept. 24 FCC shuts on
fault.

Exxon Mobil Corp. Oct. Full shutdown.
Trecate, Italy
230,000

BP Plc Early Oct. - Mid. Nov. CDU, capacity
Rotterdam, Netherlands 200,000 b/d,
400,000 shuts.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc Oct. 2 - Nov. 2 One of two
Stanlow, U.K. crude units
240,000 shuts.

Total SA Oct. 6 - Dec. 6 FCC,
La Mede, France alkylation,
158,000 visbreaker
shuts.

Repsol YPF SA Oct. 10 - Oct. 30 Visbreaker
Bilbao, Spain shuts.
220,000

Hellenic Petroleum SA Oct. 15 - Nov. 7 Partial
Elefsis, Greece shutdown.
100,000

Cepsa Oct. 25 - Dec. 3 FCC shuts.
Gibraltar
223,000

Source: Refinery operators, industry officials.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nidaa Bakhsh in London at nbakhsh@bloomberg.net





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