Economic Calendar

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Oil Little Changed Before U.S. Energy Report as Dollar Declines

By Grant Smith

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Oil was little changed near $71 a barrel before a weekly government report that may show U.S. supplies of distillate fuel rose for a fourth week.

The American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday that distillate inventories in the U.S., rose to a 26-year high. A report later today from the U.S. Energy Department may also show stockpiles of the fuel increased, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Oil pared larger losses earlier in the day as the dollar dropped to the weakest level this year against the euro, spurring interest in commodities as an inflation hedge.

“Inventories of distillates are at very high levels, and this could dampen demand for crude oil from refineries in the U.S.,” said Eliane Tanner, a commodity strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. “Prices are going to stay in a consolidation phase, with the range between $68 and $74.50 holding quite firmly.”

Crude oil for October delivery was at $70.77 a barrel, down 16 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 11:45 a.m. London time. The contract earlier fell 1.1 percent. Oil has gained 58 percent this year.

“When the API numbers came out, the market just dumped, so it’s pretty significant. But the big number is still the EIA,” the Energy Information Administration, said Clarence Chu, a trader with options seller Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “We’re highly dependent on the stockpile numbers, but crude is still trading in a range.”

Oil Inventories

The Energy Department, scheduled to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. today in Washington, may say U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week to Sept. 11 from 337.5 million, according to the median of 15 analyst estimates collected by Bloomberg News. The API posted an increase of 631,000 barrels.

Distillate fuel inventories surged to 170.3 million barrels last week, the API said. That’s the highest level since January 1983. The Energy Department report will probably show stockpiles climbed 1.25 million barrels from 165.6 million the previous week, according to the survey.

Gasoline stockpiles increased 1.35 million barrels to 208.8 million last week, according to the API. The government report may show an increase of 700,000 barrels from 207.2 million the week before, the Bloomberg survey showed.

The dollar dropped to a 2009 low against the euro before a report forecast to show U.S. manufacturers boosted output, reducing demand for the relative safety of the greenback. The dollar dropped to $1.4686 per euro as of 11:11 a.m. in London from $1.4658 yesterday in New York.

Gasoline Demand

Gasoline consumption was at an eight-month low for a second week as the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Sept. 7 failed to ignite demand before the end of the summer driving season, according to a MasterCard Inc. report.

Motorists bought an average 8.97 million barrels a day of gasoline in the week to Sept. 11, MasterCard, the second-biggest credit card company, said in its SpendingPulse report yesterday. That’s little changed from the prior week, when demand was the weakest since Jan. 9. It was the fourth time this year that demand fell short of 9 million barrels.

Brent crude oil for November settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange was at $69.63 a barrel, down 23 cents, at 11:10 a.m. London time. The October contract expired yesterday at $67.35 a barrel, down 9 cents.

Nigeria’s main rebel group extended its cease-fire by 30 days and warned that its campaign targeting oil and gas installations will continue if the government doesn’t engage in meaningful talks.

“The government should use this extension of time to do the right thing instead of pretending to talk peace, while arming the military for a war it cannot win,” Jomo Gbomo, a spokesman for the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, said in an e-mailed statement.

To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net





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Hong Kong Stocks Advance on U.S. Retail Sales; Li & Fung Gains

By Jonathan Burgos

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong stocks gained for the first time in three days after growth in U.S. retail sales and New York manufacturing beat economist estimates, fueling optimism the global recovery is on track.

Li & Fung Ltd., the biggest supplier of clothes and toys to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp., climbed 3.1 percent. HSBC Holdings Plc, which gets 24 percent of its revenue in North America, added 3.1 percent as Credit Suisse Group AG raised its share-price target. China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation’s largest coal producer, jumped 4.4 percent on speculation China’s demand for commodities has returned.

“The retail sales data show that the situation is not as bad in the U.S.,” said John Koh, who helps manage $1.1 billion at MEAG Hong Kong Ltd. “Most of the data we’ve seen are positive but unemployment remains a concern.”

The Hang Seng Index gained 2.6 percent to 21,402.92 at the close, snapping a two-day, 1.4 percent decline. The gauge has surged 89 percent from a four-month low on March 9 as stimulus measures revived economies around the world. Shares on the Hang Seng are priced at an average 17.3 times estimated earnings, up from 10.6 times at the start of the year.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks so- called H shares of Chinese companies, rose 3 percent to 12,525.72.

Exporters Gain

Hong Kong exporters advanced after U.S. government data released yesterday showed retail sales excluding automobiles gained 1.1 percent last month, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said its general economic index rose to 18.9 in September. Both reports surpassed economists’ estimates.

Li & Fung, which gets 62 percent of sales from the U.S., climbed 3.1 percent to HK$28.30. Foxconn International Holdings Ltd., the world’s No. 1 contract maker of mobile phones, rose 1 percent to HK$5.23.

China Shenhua led commodity stocks higher, rising 4.4 percent to HK$35.30. Jiangxi Copper Co. Ltd., China’s biggest producer of the metal, advanced 3.4 percent to HK$18.80.

Commodity demand in China “is back on track in a very big way” and copper and coking coal have the best prospects for price gains as the world economy accelerates, according to CLSA Research Ltd.

Xinao Gas Holdings Ltd., the piped gas distributor partly owned by the World Bank, jumped 8 percent to HK$14.78. The company posted a 31 percent increase in profit to 374 million yuan ($55 million) in the first half from a year earlier on rising sales to households and industry.

Ho Family Stocks

Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., the world’s biggest developer by market value, gained 0.9 percent to HK$113. The company said full-year income excluding property revaluations rose 1.6 percent to HK$12.4 billion from a year earlier. That’s higher that the median HK$12 billion estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Shun Tak Holdings Ltd., the ferry company and property developer controlled by billionaire Stanley Ho and his family, advanced 8 percent to HK$6.72. The stock was maintained a “buy” at BNP Paribas, which raised its share-price estimate to HK$8.12 from HK$6.10.

SJM Holdings Ltd., the gaming company controlled by Ho, climbed 8.6 percent to HK$4.57, its highest close since its trading debut in July 2008, after the company said its share of the casino market in Macau rose.

That SJM managed to raise its market share even with the rival City of Dreams casino opening in June is a positive sign, Nomura International (HK) Ltd. said. With SJM opening two casinos this year and its Grand Lisboa adding more VIP tables, “we see further upside,” Nomura analysts Kenneth Fong and Benjamin Lo said in a report dated yesterday.

HSBC added 3.1 percent to HK$87.40. Credit Suisse Group raised its share-price estimate for Europe’s biggest bank to HK$92 from HK$90 and maintained its “outperform” rating.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at jburgos4@bloomberg.net.





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FTSE 100 Index Likely to Rise to 5,200: Technical Analysis

By Adam Ewing

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The FTSE 100 Index has broken through a Fibonacci retracement level as investors remain bullish and it looks like the market will continue to rise, according to Hobart Capital Markets.

The FTSE 100 has rebounded 46 percent since reaching this year’s low on March 3, breaching a key Fibonacci retracement level of 50 percent.

“In a normal trading environment you would expect the bulls to take a breather,” Nick Batsford, a London-based technical analyst at Hobart, told Bloomberg News today in a telephone interview. It is hard to tell when a fall will happen given the bid rumors and amount of cash waiting to enter the market, he added.

The FTSE could reach 5,200 before sliding down, but isn’t likely to break the 4,800 support level, Batsford said.

The FTSE 100 added 82.51, or 1.6 percent, to 5,124.64 as of 12:13 p.m. today in London, gaining for a fourth day.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a stock may move to the next level.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Ewing in Stockholm aewing5@bloomberg.net.





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German Stocks Climb for Second Day as Adidas, Steelmakers Gain

By Christiane Lenzner

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- German stocks gained for a second day, sending the benchmark DAX Index to an 11-month high, as Morgan Stanley recommended shares of Adidas AG and steelmakers climbed with metal prices.

Adidas, the world’s second-largest sporting-goods maker, jumped 6.5 percent. ThyssenKrupp AG and Salzgitter AG rose at least 1.7 percent. Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-biggest bank, added 4.1 percent as Handelsblatt reported the lender’s sale of Kleinwort Benson and Dresdner Bauspar AG has attracted strong interest.

The DAX Index climbed 0.9 percent to 5,678.44 as of 12:58 p.m. in Frankfurt, the highest level since October. The measure has rebounded 55 percent since March 6 as companies reported better-than-estimated earnings and economic data signaled the global recession is nearing an end. The broader HDAX Index increased 0.9 percent today.

“If you look at micro and macro fundamentals, they look good,” Nathalie Pelras, a fund manager at Richelieu Finance in Paris, said in an interview. “There is no fundamental reason for the market to collapse.”

U.S. reports today may show the Obama administration’s “cash-for-clunkers” plan helped to boost production and restrain prices, economists said. Industrial output probably climbed 0.6 percent last month as automakers cranked up assembly lines, according to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. The cost of living likely rose 0.3 percent, the survey showed, reflecting a jump in fuel costs that was offset in part by the government’s incentive to trade in older cars.

‘Overweight’

Adidas rallied 6.5 percent to 35.88 euros as Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the stock with an “overweight” recommendation and a price estimate of 44.80 euros. The brokerage also rated Puma AG “overweight.” Europe’s second- largest sporting-goods maker jumped 3.1 percent to 226.90 euros.

“We believe these sporting goods brands are in a strong position to outperform peers,” Morgan Stanley analyst Louise Singlehurst wrote in a report to clients. “Sporting goods present one of the most exciting exposures to the high-growth Chinese consumer market.”

ThyssenKrupp and Salzgitter, Germany’s largest steelmakers, rose 2 percent to 24.43 euros and 1.7 percent to 71.50 euros, respectively. Copper, lead and nickel all climbed on the London Metal Exchange, lifting basic-resource shares across Europe.

K+S AG, Europe’s biggest maker of potash used in fertilizers, soared 4.3 percent to 39.39 euros, set for the highest close this month.

Commerzbank, Daimler

Commerzbank advanced 4 percent to 8.83 euros. Handelsblatt also reported Commerzbank’s eastern European operations will post losses this year, citing management board member Achim Kassow, who didn’t say whether they may return to profitability in 2010.

Daimler AG, the maker of Mercedes Benz cars, increased 3.3 percent to 34.20 euros, the first gain in three days.

Common shares of Volkswagen AG dropped for a third day, losing 1.2 percent to 120.93 euros. Europe’s largest carmaker expects the ordinary shares to be removed from the DAX after Qatar Holding LLC exercises its options to buy the stock, reducing the so-called free-float. Preferred shares climbed 2.6 percent to 73.36 euros, set for the highest close since October.

The following stocks also rose or fell in German markets. Symbols are in parentheses after company names.

Arcandor AG (ARO GY) rallied 23 percent to 49 cents, the highest price since July. The stock jumped 38 percent yesterday after the insolvent German retailer said it no longer holds any shares in Thomas Cook Group Plc.

Aixtron AG (AIXA GY) climbed 2 percent to 15.55 euros after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its share-price estimate for the maker of specialized equipment used to produce LED screens to 18 euros from 13 euros.

Bilfinger Berger AG (GBF GY) surged 4.5 percent to 48.22 euros, snapping a three-day drop, after Germany’s second-biggest builder was raised to “buy” from “sell” at Goldman Sachs.

Fuchs Petrolub AG (FPE3 GY) rose 2.2 percent to 52.29 euros as the country’s largest maker of lubricants was upgraded to “buy” from “add” at WestLB AG.

Gildemeister AG (GIL GY) jumped 4 percent to 9.46 euros after HSBC Holdings Plc raised its recommendation for the German machine-tool maker founded in 1870 to “overweight” from “neutral.”

Infineon Technologies AG (IFX GY) advanced 1.4 percent to 3.94 euros. Goldman Sachs increased its share-price projection for Europe’s second-largest maker of semiconductors to 5 euros from 4 euros.

TUI AG (TUI1 GY) dropped 2 percent to 7.01 euros. The stock was cut to “reduce” from “hold” at Equinet AG, citing a report in Financial Times Deutschland that Hapag-Lloyd AG may have difficulties to get European Union approval for the state aid it applied for.

“It is clearly negative that the refinancing of Hapag- Lloyd is at risk,” Equinet wrote in a note to clients. TUI is the largest shareholder in the Hapag-Lloyd container-line.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christiane Lenzner in Frankfurt at clenzner@bloomberg.net.





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U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance; Alcoa, Citigroup, GE Climb

By Daniela Silberstein

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures advanced, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may extend its highest level in almost a year, as gains in commodities lifted raw-material producers.

Alcoa Inc. and Barrick Gold Corp. rose at least 1.7 percent as metal prices climbed. Citigroup Inc. rallied 4.4 percent as people familiar with the situation said the third-biggest U.S. bank is planning an exit from the government debt guarantee program. General Electric Co. climbed 2 percent before a report that may show industrial production increased.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December added 0.5 percent to 1,051.30 as of 12:03 p.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.5 percent to 9,653. Nasdaq- 100 Index futures rose 0.3 percent 1,700.75. European and Asian stocks also advanced.

U.S. stocks climbed yesterday after growth in retail sales and New York manufacturing topped estimates and billionaire investor Warren Buffett said his company is buying equities.

“The U.S. recession is meanwhile over and we will see good growth in the third quarter,” said Marco Huwiler, a strategist at Clariden Leu in Zurich, which manages about $88 billion. “We are waiting for confirmation from the industrial sector that we are in a phase of an upturn. A positive number today could contribute to that.”

Reports today may show the Obama administration’s “cash- for-clunkers” plan helped to boost production and restrain prices, economists said. Industrial output probably climbed 0.6 percent last month as automakers cranked up assembly lines, according to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg survey before the Federal Reserve’s report at 9:15 a.m. in Washington.

Metal Prices

The S&P 500 has rebounded 56 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 on signs the recession is easing and as companies beat earnings estimates. Buffett told a conference in California yesterday that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is “buying stocks right as we speak” and he’s getting a “lot for my money” in equities.

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, added 1.7 percent to $14.23 in Germany. Copper gained for a second day on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum, zinc, lead and nickel also increased.

Barrick Gold, the world’s biggest producer of the metal, added 2.6 percent to $38.95. Gold climbed to an 18-month high on concern that a global economic recovery may stoke inflation and on a drop by the dollar that boosted demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

Greenspan Comments

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a broadcast to Tokyo clients of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. today that he’s concerned that lawmakers will hamper U.S. central bank efforts to rein in its monetary stimulus, and that inflation might “swamp” the bond market.

Citigroup climbed 4.4 percent to $4.30 in early New York trading. The largest user of U.S. government debt guarantees extended under last year’s bank rescue plans to exit the program as regulators push to withdraw aid intended as temporary, people familiar with the matter said.

The bank has been in discussions with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. over exiting the program when it expires on Oct. 31, the people said. The bank, which had $72.4 billion of FDIC- guaranteed debt outstanding as of June 30, doesn’t plan to seek an emergency extension, one of the people said.

FDIC spokesman David Barr declined to comment, as did Danielle Romero-Apsilos, a spokeswoman for the bank.

Economy Watch

Bank of America Corp., which said yesterday that it had won approval from the FDIC to exit the program, advanced 1.4 percent to $17.02.

GE, the world’s largest maker of power-plant turbines, added 2 percent to $16.32.

Rambus Inc. rose 2.9 percent to $18.55 in German trading. The designer of chips for Sony Corp.’s PlayStation video-game console said it expects revenue for the third quarter of as much as $28 million, boosting its forecast from an earlier projection of $25 million at most.

Omniture Inc. rallied 23 percent to $21.28 in Germany. Adobe Systems Inc., the biggest maker of graphic-design software, agreed to buy the maker of software that allows companies to gauge the effectiveness of their online advertising for $21.50 a share, or $1.8 billion. Adobe dropped 3.4 percent to $34.42 in early New York trading.

Figures from the Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. are expected to show the cost of living rose 0.3 percent, the survey showed, reflecting a jump in fuel costs that was offset in part by the government’s incentive to trade in older cars.

V-Shaped Recovery

Other reports today may show the current-account deficit, the broadest measure of trade because it includes transfer payments and investment income, narrowed in the second quarter, and homebuilders became less pessimistic this month.

Global stocks are in the middle of a “V-shaped recovery,” led by emerging markets, that will last for at least another six months, billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher said.

“The bigger and uglier the bear market, usually the bigger the V,” Fisher, who manages $28 billion as chief executive officer of Fisher Investments Inc. in Woodside, California, said in an interview in New York. “A normal V-shaped recovery lasts one year, and the current rally started in March.”

Investor sentiment deteriorated from Tokyo to Paris and New York on speculation a six-month rally in stocks has outstripped the prospects for earnings as indexes trade at the most expensive valuations since 2003. Optimism for equities fell in seven of 10 countries in the Bloomberg Professional Confidence Survey. Users expect stocks to decline during the next six months in the U.S.

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net.





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Stock Sentiment Falls Worldwide as Valuations Hit Six-Year High

By Whitney Kisling

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Investor sentiment deteriorated from Tokyo to Paris and New York on speculation a six-month rally in stocks has outstripped the prospects for earnings as indexes trade at the most expensive valuations since 2003.

Optimism for equities fell in seven of 10 countries in the Bloomberg Professional Confidence Survey. Users expect stocks to drop during the next six months in the U.S., Japan and Spain, while investors in Brazil and the U.K. were the most bullish. Sentiment had improved in all 10 nations in August.

The MSCI World Index has surged 64 percent since March 9 on signs the global economy is recovering from its first recession since World War II, driving valuations on the gauge of 23 developed countries to 27.3 times the earnings of its 1,659 companies, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show. The measure of global stocks was trading at 10.8 times profit when the advance began, close to the lowest level since at least 1995.

“We would not be surprised to see a short-term pause in the rally,” said Lawrence Peterman, who participated in the survey and is the London-based investment director at Eden Financial Ltd. “Everyone is looking at the next earnings season in the U.S. at the start of October for the next indicator of what’s going on. If earnings don’t come through, then the market will look expensive.”

Earnings Slump

Profits for companies in the MSCI World tumbled 40 percent last quarter on average, Bloomberg data show. Earnings at U.S. companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 30 percent in the April-to-June period and will decrease 22 percent this quarter before rebounding in the last three months of the year, analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg indicate.

Japan was the only country where sentiment turned from bullish to bearish by sliding below 50 in September, indicating users expect prices to fall in the next six months. Investors grew less certain that stocks will gain in France, Italy, Switzerland and Mexico, while respondents in Spain and the U.S. were more convinced of a drop, the data show.

The outlook for the U.S. slipped to 46.2 after climbing within 1 point of 50 in August, the survey conducted from Sept. 7 to Sept. 11 showed. The S&P 500 has surged 56 percent since March 9 to an 11-month high as reports on manufacturing and home sales indicated the longest American recession since the Great Depression may be over. The proportion of companies that beat analysts’ profit predictions matched a record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

G-20, Lehman

The gains pushed the S&P 500’s price to 19.3 times operating earnings from the past 12 months, the most expensive level since June 2004, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Valuations climbed as the Group of 20 countries committed $12 trillion to help end the recession, while the Federal Reserve has held its target rate for overnight lending between banks at near zero to unlock credit markets after the bankruptcy of New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last September.

“I would have thought we’d have some sort of a pullback by now because of the pace of this rally so far,” said Jason Cooper, who oversees about $2.5 billion at 1st Source Investment Advisors in South Bend, Indiana. “A lot of that rally has to do with the fact that our government and other governments outside of the U.S. have put a lot of fuel in the fire.”

The confidence gauge for Japan slid 12 percent to 47.3. The country’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average trades at 43.4 times the estimated earnings of its companies, the most expensive level among the world’s 20 biggest stock markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Yen Strengthens

Japan’s economy expanded at a slower pace than economists projected in the second quarter, government data showed this month. The yen strengthened to the highest level since February against the dollar today, reducing the value of overseas sales at Japanese companies when converted into the home currency.

Spain was the only country besides the U.S. and Japan where respondents predicted declines for stocks, with the survey’s gauge slipping 1.9 percent to 39.3. Sentiment deteriorated the most among French investors, as the nation’s measure tumbled 12 percent to 50.8.

The U.K. had the biggest advance in the survey for the second straight month, climbing 5.3 percent to 63.8. The FTSE 100 Index has surged to the highest in almost a year as data showed British service industries expanded at the fastest pace in almost two years in August and house prices rose for a second month. The Bank of England said last week it plans to keep buying as much as 175 billion pounds ($288 billion) of assets to cement the economy’s recovery.

Recession’s End

Confidence in Germany’s DAX Index increased 1.1 percent to 50, after government data last month showed that the country unexpectedly exited a recession in the second quarter. Sentiment in Switzerland slipped 2.9 percent to 52 and Italy’s reading fell 4 percent to 60.4.

The measure for Brazil climbed 5.1 percent to 71.5, the highest of the 10 countries. The nation’s Bovespa Index has jumped 58 percent in 2009 on speculation a rebound in commodity prices and record-low interest rates will fuel growth in Latin America’s largest economy. Confidence in Mexico slipped 2.9 percent to 52.3.

To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net.





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Griffin Shifts Funds’ Strategy to Fortify Citadel

By Katherine Burton and Saijel Kishan

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Ken Griffin started trading convertible bonds 22 years ago from his Harvard University dorm room. Now he’s moving away from the investments that made him a billionaire hedge-fund manager -- and unraveled last year, leaving clients with a 55 percent loss, almost three times the industry average.

Citadel Investment Group LLC, Griffin’s $13.5 billion firm, is reducing its two biggest funds’ holdings of convertible bonds and other so-called relative-value trades that try to profit from small price differences in related securities, and amplify the gains with debt. At last year’s peak in May, the firm used borrowings of nine times net assets to hold $145 billion in gross assets. That was triple the average leverage ratio of hedge funds, according to a report from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Griffin, 40, boasted a 26 percent annualized return in his first 17 years of business. Last year he suffered his biggest loss as the funds sold assets to reduce borrowings.

“This was the first time in 20 years that we have played defense,” Griffin, president and chief executive officer, said in an interview at Citadel’s Chicago headquarters, after recently returning from Europe, his first vacation since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. a year ago. “In other crises, we had enough firepower in reserve. We could be buyers.”

Shift in Strategy

Still, he has hired 70 people to operate a full-service investment bank, which he says will compete with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley. He started three hedge funds, which are being marketed around the world by a six-person team. And his flagship funds, Kensington and Wellington, have returned about 52 percent through Sept. 1, in part on a rebound in convertible bonds.

“It was an incredible time in market history,” said Griffin. “Today our team is solidly focused on the future.”

His shift in investment strategy, he said, involves relying more on fundamental research to make trades than on bets based on the historic relationships between two securities.

That may not satisfy some of the 300 or so clients in Kensington and Wellington, which would have to return an additional 46 percent each to make investors whole and to collect performance fees.

Citadel suspended redemptions last year as investors sought to pull about $1.5 billion in assets. It’s set to release $250 million at the end of this month, and Griffin said he expects more than $500 million will be returned to investors by the end of the year.

Investor Disappointment

One longtime Citadel investor, Jean-Francois Vert, CEO of Allianz Alternative Asset Management in Paris, said he plans to reduce his position.

“We are very disappointed by the poor liquidity and performance of Citadel,” Vert said, adding that he favors any strategy shift that allows the firm to reduce leverage and give money back to investors.

Griffin, who founded Citadel in 1990 at the age of 22 with $4.6 million, built what investors and other managers considered a formidable business that lived up to its name: an impenetrable fortress. He did it by buying when others were in trouble. By the end of 2007, he was managing $21 billion, trading everything from U.S. stocks and energy to corporate bonds. His firm was the 13th largest hedge-fund manager that year, according to Institutional Investor’s AR magazine.

Looking at Lehman

Griffin made commitments of at least a year for 85 percent of the funds he borrowed, unlike managers who focused on borrowing money for six months or less. His investors were locked up for as long as two years.

“We built the firm to be invincible,” said Griffin. “Of course our successes engendered our confidence.”

The confidence led Griffin, along with a partner, to consider buying assets of Lehman in the months before the New York-based firm collapsed, he said.

“There were a number of businesses at Lehman that were of interest to us,” Griffin said.

He declined to provide the name of the partner, describe the assets they wanted to buy or say why the talks fell apart.

Citadel’s first big distressed deal was in 2006, when it took over the energy positions of Amaranth Advisors LLC, the hedge-fund firm in Greenwich, Connecticut, that lost $6.6 billion betting on natural gas. The following year Griffin bought most of the assets of Sowood Capital Management LP, a Boston-based hedge-fund manager that closed after it lost 60 percent on wrong-way bets on corporate bonds and loans.

E*Trade

Griffin’s biggest deal was in 2007, when he pumped $2.55 billion into E*Trade Financial Corp., the New York-based online broker, including $800 million of securities tied to mortgages. That trade has been profitable, said Chief Operating Officer Gerald Beeson.

As the financial crisis gathered steam in 2007, Griffin continued to buy when others were selling. Citadel started increasing its purchases of convertible bonds and added to the positions in 2008 as the securities got cheaper. Convertible bonds, which can be exchanged for stock once shares hit a predetermined level, accounted for about 20 percent of Griffin’s biggest funds last year.

‘No Disagreement’

After the forced sale of Bear Stearns Cos. to JPMorgan Chase in March 2008, Griffin visited the 35th-floor office of Brad Begle, Citadel’s head of convertible bonds. He told him to buy more because they were cheap, according to people familiar with the matter.

Begle, who declined to comment, protested because he feared the market would drop, according to the people. Griffin says the two were of one mind about the size of the position.

“There was no disagreement about the increase,” he said. “There might have been a disagreement about the pace of the increase.”

By Nov. 30, the funds had about $13 billion in bets that convertible-bond prices would rise, according to an investor report. Another $8 billion was in positions that would profit if stocks tied to those convertible bonds fell.

The funds also lost money on high-yield bonds and investment-grade bonds hedged with credit-default swaps, which protect buyers in the event of a default. Citadel was betting that the gap between the default swaps and the bonds would narrow. Instead, they widened as lenders left the market and investors bet that more companies would default.

Mounting Losses

In the fourth quarter of the year, Citadel’s losses mounted as markets for convertible bonds and loans went into a free fall. Beeson, 37, was on the phone almost daily with lenders, including Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs and at least 20 others, he said in an interview.

The fund met collateral calls with cash, which dropped from about 35 percent of assets to 20 percent by the end of the fourth quarter. It sold stocks and other easily tradable assets to replenish the cash.

“Buying time was the most we could do,” said Griffin. “You have to make sure you are generating cash well before the moment you need the cash.”

While Citadel executives say they expect the Kensington and Wellington funds to continue to be the cornerstone of their asset-management business, the firm has started three hedge funds this year that focus on single strategies -- macroeconomic trends, equities and convertible bonds. Citadel plans to start a distressed-mortgage fund by the end of 2009 and a distressed corporate-bond fund next year, Griffin said.

Fundraising

The new funds are meant to appeal to clients who want to do their own asset allocation, rather than invest in Citadel’s multistrategy funds. Kensington and Wellington charge expenses, which have ranged from 3 percent to 6 percent of assets, and take 20 percent of investment gains. Griffin covered the expense fees last year. The new funds are more in line with industry standards of 2 percent of assets and 20 percent of gains.

Citadel has raised about $500 million from new and current investors for those funds since the second quarter, Griffin said. New York-based Blackstone Group LP’s $25 billion fund of funds group has attracted $2.5 billion this year, and Paul Tudor Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., of Greenwich, Connecticut, raised $1.9 billion between March and July.

Return to Roots

“Citadel’s impregnable position in the hedge-fund industry is not as strong as it was before 2008,” said John Trammell, president of New York-based Cadogan Management LLC, which invests $3.7 billion in hedge funds and doesn’t have money with Citadel. “It may be difficult for them to regain that status following last year’s losses.”

Jones and Louis Bacon, CEO of New York-based hedge-fund firm Moore Capital Management LLC, have said this year that they would return to their roots of investing in the most liquid markets rather than harder-to-sell assets such as private equity.

While Griffin is moving away from his roots, he’s also ratcheting down leverage. Citadel lowered its leverage ratio to about 8-to-1 as of November, according to a Citadel investor report.

“I was where I wanted to be on that Friday” before Lehman declared bankruptcy, Griffin said of his portfolio at the time. “In retrospect, I wish I had had less leverage.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Katherine Burton in Chicago at kburton@bloomberg.net; Saijel Kishan in Chicago at skishan@bloomberg.net





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European, Asian Shares Rise; U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance

By Adam Haigh

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced as billionaire investor Warren Buffett said his company is buying equities and higher commodity prices lifted raw-material producers. U.S. futures gained.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, increased 2.7 percent as copper, lead and nickel climbed on the London Metal Exchange. KBC Group NV surged 6.9 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised buying shares of the Belgian bank. Inditex SA soared 4 percent after earnings at Europe’s largest clothing retailer beat analysts’ estimates.

The MSCI World Index added 0.9 percent at 11:57 a.m. in London as all 10 industry groups rose. The measure of equities in 23 developed nations has rallied 64 percent since March 9 as results at companies from Goldman Sachs to Roche Holding AG topped estimates and the German and French economies unexpectedly exited recessions.

“There’s still the chance of the market going up some more from here as there are people who haven’t participated in this rally wanting to buy in,” said Gregor Smith, a London-based fund manager at Daiwa Asset Management, who helps oversee about $1 billion. “These guys are being forced in.”

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index climbed 1.3 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 1.9 percent, the biggest gain in more than three weeks. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in December added 0.5 percent before a report that may show U.S. industrial production increased.

Bernanke, Buffett

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who yesterday said the recession has likely ended, may have to accept a slow recovery and high unemployment as the price for defending his inflation-fighting credentials.

“Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time,” Bernanke said in response to questions after a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “That’s a challenge for us and all policy makers going forward.”

Buffett told a conference in California yesterday that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is “buying stocks right as we speak” and he’s getting a “lot for my money” in equities.


Global stocks are in the middle of a “V-shaped recovery,” led by emerging markets, that will last for at least another six months, billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher said.

‘V-Shaped Recovery’

“The bigger and uglier the bear market, usually the bigger the V,” Fisher, who manages $28 billion as chief executive officer of Fisher Investments Inc. in Woodside, California, said in an interview in New York. “A normal V-shaped recovery lasts one year, and the current rally started in March.”

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a broadcast to Tokyo clients of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. today that he’s concerned that lawmakers will hamper U.S. central bank efforts to rein in its monetary stimulus, and that inflation might “swamp” the bond market.

Reports today may show the Obama administration’s “cash- for-clunkers” plan rippled through the economy in August, helping to boost production and restrain prices, economists said. Industrial output probably climbed 0.6 percent last month as automakers cranked up assembly lines, according to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. The cost of living likely rose 0.3 percent, the survey showed, reflecting a jump in fuel costs that was offset in part by the government’s incentive to trade in older cars.

BHP, Rio Tinto

BHP Billiton added 2.7 percent to 1,753.5 pence in London. Copper climbed for a second day on the LME, rising 1.9 percent. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, gained 3.8 percent to 2,749 pence.

BHP Chief Commercial Officer Alberto Calderon told a presentation in London that the worst of the industry crisis is over but recovery may be “slower than envisioned.”

Gold producers rallied as the precious metal climbed to an 18-month high in London. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold producer, advanced 4.5 percent to A$34.95. Zijin Mining Group Co., China’s largest bullion producer, surged 7.8 percent to HK$8.15 in Hong Kong.

KBC advanced 6.9 percent to 34.40 euros. Goldman Sachs rated the shares “buy” in new coverage and placed them on its “conviction buy” list.

Inditex rose 4 percent to 40.17 euros. Net income fell 7.6 percent to 375 million euros ($550 million) in the six months through July, beating the 349.5 million-euro average estimate of six analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

Next Plc increased 4.5 percent to 1,775 pence. The U.K.’s second-biggest seller of clothing said it expects analysts to raise full-year profit estimates after saying first-half performance was stronger than the retailer expected.

Automakers Advance

Renault SA, France’s second-largest carmaker, led a rally in European automakers after Japanese affiliate Nissan Motor Co. said sales in China this year will beat its previous forecast as government stimulus measures spur demand. Renault gained 4.8 percent to 34.10 euros and PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe’s second- biggest maker of cars, soared 4.1 to 22.38 euros.

Porsche SE, the maker of the 911 sports car, surged 4.4 percent to 52.75 euros.

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Ltd., the highest-priced brand of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, is counting on its new Ghost model to help the division double sales next year as the luxury-car market gradually revives, Chief Executive Officer Tom Purves said in an interview. BMW added 0.9 percent to 35.06 euros.

Adidas AG gained 6.4 percent to 35.87 euros and Puma AG climbed 3.2 percent to 226.94 euros after Morgan Stanley rated both sporting-goods makers “overweight” in new coverage, saying they will benefit from the growth of Chinese consumers.

Safran SA sank 3.9 percent to 12.39 euros after Credit Suisse Group AG cut the shares to “neutral” and Cheuvreux SA downgraded the stock to “underperform.” Both brokerages moved down from an “outperform” recommendations.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net




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European, Asian Shares Rise; U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance

By Adam Haigh

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced as billionaire investor Warren Buffett said his company is buying equities and higher commodity prices lifted raw-material producers. U.S. futures gained.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, increased 2.7 percent as copper, lead and nickel climbed on the London Metal Exchange. KBC Group NV surged 6.9 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised buying shares of the Belgian bank. Inditex SA soared 4 percent after earnings at Europe’s largest clothing retailer beat analysts’ estimates.

The MSCI World Index added 0.9 percent at 11:57 a.m. in London as all 10 industry groups rose. The measure of equities in 23 developed nations has rallied 64 percent since March 9 as results at companies from Goldman Sachs to Roche Holding AG topped estimates and the German and French economies unexpectedly exited recessions.

“There’s still the chance of the market going up some more from here as there are people who haven’t participated in this rally wanting to buy in,” said Gregor Smith, a London-based fund manager at Daiwa Asset Management, who helps oversee about $1 billion. “These guys are being forced in.”

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index climbed 1.3 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 1.9 percent, the biggest gain in more than three weeks. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in December added 0.5 percent before a report that may show U.S. industrial production increased.

Bernanke, Buffett

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who yesterday said the recession has likely ended, may have to accept a slow recovery and high unemployment as the price for defending his inflation-fighting credentials.

“Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time,” Bernanke said in response to questions after a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “That’s a challenge for us and all policy makers going forward.”

Buffett told a conference in California yesterday that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is “buying stocks right as we speak” and he’s getting a “lot for my money” in equities.


Global stocks are in the middle of a “V-shaped recovery,” led by emerging markets, that will last for at least another six months, billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher said.

‘V-Shaped Recovery’

“The bigger and uglier the bear market, usually the bigger the V,” Fisher, who manages $28 billion as chief executive officer of Fisher Investments Inc. in Woodside, California, said in an interview in New York. “A normal V-shaped recovery lasts one year, and the current rally started in March.”

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a broadcast to Tokyo clients of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. today that he’s concerned that lawmakers will hamper U.S. central bank efforts to rein in its monetary stimulus, and that inflation might “swamp” the bond market.

Reports today may show the Obama administration’s “cash- for-clunkers” plan rippled through the economy in August, helping to boost production and restrain prices, economists said. Industrial output probably climbed 0.6 percent last month as automakers cranked up assembly lines, according to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. The cost of living likely rose 0.3 percent, the survey showed, reflecting a jump in fuel costs that was offset in part by the government’s incentive to trade in older cars.

BHP, Rio Tinto

BHP Billiton added 2.7 percent to 1,753.5 pence in London. Copper climbed for a second day on the LME, rising 1.9 percent. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, gained 3.8 percent to 2,749 pence.

BHP Chief Commercial Officer Alberto Calderon told a presentation in London that the worst of the industry crisis is over but recovery may be “slower than envisioned.”

Gold producers rallied as the precious metal climbed to an 18-month high in London. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold producer, advanced 4.5 percent to A$34.95. Zijin Mining Group Co., China’s largest bullion producer, surged 7.8 percent to HK$8.15 in Hong Kong.

KBC advanced 6.9 percent to 34.40 euros. Goldman Sachs rated the shares “buy” in new coverage and placed them on its “conviction buy” list.

Inditex rose 4 percent to 40.17 euros. Net income fell 7.6 percent to 375 million euros ($550 million) in the six months through July, beating the 349.5 million-euro average estimate of six analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

Next Plc increased 4.5 percent to 1,775 pence. The U.K.’s second-biggest seller of clothing said it expects analysts to raise full-year profit estimates after saying first-half performance was stronger than the retailer expected.

Automakers Advance

Renault SA, France’s second-largest carmaker, led a rally in European automakers after Japanese affiliate Nissan Motor Co. said sales in China this year will beat its previous forecast as government stimulus measures spur demand. Renault gained 4.8 percent to 34.10 euros and PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe’s second- biggest maker of cars, soared 4.1 to 22.38 euros.

Porsche SE, the maker of the 911 sports car, surged 4.4 percent to 52.75 euros.

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Ltd., the highest-priced brand of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, is counting on its new Ghost model to help the division double sales next year as the luxury-car market gradually revives, Chief Executive Officer Tom Purves said in an interview. BMW added 0.9 percent to 35.06 euros.

Adidas AG gained 6.4 percent to 35.87 euros and Puma AG climbed 3.2 percent to 226.94 euros after Morgan Stanley rated both sporting-goods makers “overweight” in new coverage, saying they will benefit from the growth of Chinese consumers.

Safran SA sank 3.9 percent to 12.39 euros after Credit Suisse Group AG cut the shares to “neutral” and Cheuvreux SA downgraded the stock to “underperform.” Both brokerages moved down from an “outperform” recommendations.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net




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U.K. Stocks Climb for Fourth Day; Mining Shares, Tullow Rally

By Sarah Jones

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks advanced for a fourth day, led by commodity producers as mining shares climbed higher with metal prices and on reports Tullow Oil Plc may have established a new oilfield.

Xstrata Plc, Kazakhmys Plc and Rio Tinto Group each rallied more than 2 percent as copper rose for a second day and as analysts at CLSA Research Ltd. said commodity demand in China, the largest metals user, “is back on track in a very big way.” Shares of Tullow Oil jumped 4.2 percent. Next Plc gained 2.4 percent after the retailer said it expects analysts to raise full-year profit estimates.

The benchmark FTSE 100 climbed 49.32, or 1 percent, to 5,091.45 at 9:13 a.m. in London, the highest in almost a year. The FTSE All-Share Index rose 0.9 percent today, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index gained 0.5 percent.

The FTSE 100 has rebounded 45 percent since March lows, leaving the measure’s valuation at about 76 times its companies’ reported earnings, the most expensive level in seven years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Stocks in Europe and Asia and U.S. futures also advanced today as billionaire investor Warren Buffett said his company is buying equities.

“Equity markets are once again finding a reason to extend the recent run of gains,” said Ben Potter, a research analyst at IG Markets in Melbourne. “The rally seems to be finding traction on a global basis.”

Xstrata

Shares of Xstrata rallied 3.6 percent to 981.5 pence. Copper led gains on the London Metal Exchange. The world’s fourth-largest copper producer was also upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

Kazakhmys, Kazakhstan’s biggest copper producer, advanced 2.6 percent to 1,126 pence. Rio Tinto, the world’s third-largest mining company, climbed 2.9 percent to 2,724 pence.

Commodity demand in China, the largest metals user, “is back on track in a very big way,” and copper and coking coal have the best prospects for price gains as the world economy accelerates, according to CLSA Research Ltd.

Tullow Oil, a London-based explorer with most licenses in Africa, jumped 4.2 percent to 1,133 pence. The Financial Times reported the company may announce with Anadarko Petroleum Corp. the establishment of a new oilfield along the West African coast from Ghana to Sierra Leone. The newspaper cited people familiar with the situation.

Next led a rally in retail shares, climbing 2.4 percent to 1,740 pence. The U.K.’s second-biggest seller of clothing said it is raising its forecast for profitability because of tighter control over inventory levels and expenses.

The company said it expects analysts to raise forecasts for a second time in two months after a stronger-than- expected first-half performance.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.





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Adobe, Garmin, Olin, Omniture, PPG, Rambus: U.S. Equity Preview

By Lu Wang

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual moves in U.S. trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

China Green Agriculture Inc. (CGA US): The Chinese fertilizer producer forecast sales of $11.2 million at most for the September quarter. That trailed the average estimate of $12 million from two analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN US): The biggest U.S. maker of navigation devices was raised to “hold” from “buy” at Deutsche Bank AG.

Omniture Inc. (OMTR US): The maker of software that allows companies to gauge the effectiveness of their online advertising agreed to be bought by Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE US) for $21.50 a share, or $1.8 billion. Adobe slipped 3.8 percent to $34.26.

PPG Industries Inc. (PPG US): The world’s second-biggest paint maker was upgraded to “neutral” from “sell” at UBS AG, which said earnings from chlorine and caustic soda sales will improve from the second quarter.

The brokerage also raised the rating for Olin Corp. (OLN US), North America’s third-largest chlorine producer, to “neutral” from “sell.”

Rambus Inc. (RMBS US): The designer of chips for Sony Corp.’s PlayStation video-game console said it expects revenue for the third quarter to be at least $27 million, boosting its forecast from an earlier projection of $25 million at most.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net





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Monday, September 14, 2009

Protectionism Sinks Asian Markets

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | Sep 14 09 08:56 GMT |

Market Brief

The Greenback fell to 2009 fresh lows against most major currencies last week, with Dollar Index used to track the greenback against 6 major currencies dropped 2% to 76.608 from 78.136 a week earlier. Demand for the safe-haven currency dropped sharply last week as Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its biggest weekly gain for the year, and gold continued its uptrend to top at 1011.95 on Friday. Other important factors put pressure on the safe-haven currency. The three months LIBOR for dollars dropped to a record low on Wednesday, making the greenback the cheapest currency to fund purchases of higher yielding assets, and UN called for dollar reserve role to be eliminated. Should the USD fall further this week? I believe we need to watch closely the stock indices as it's relation with the USD are still inversely proportional, while key events such as retail sales, consumer prices and TICS could be the market movers for this week.

The EUR appreciated 2% against the USD last week, but was almost unchanged on Friday, closing at 1.4570 after posting a new 2009 high at 1.4635 earlier in the day. The GBP rallied after the BoE left rates at 0.5%, and quantitative easing stance unchanged at £175 B. The JPY possibly benefited from funds flowing back to safer assets towards the end week, as we've seen correction in U.S. stock markets and drop in commodities except the precious metals. Commodity currencies such as AUD and CAD also fell on Friday as commodity prices dropped.

Gold for the first time since February closes above $1,000 benchmark. The yellow metal rallied to as high as 1013.7 on Friday before closing at 1006.4. I do favorite some more upside in gold for a test of 1033.9 levels. Crude Oil dropped to a low of $68.8 after topping at $72.9. OPEC announced to keep production quotas unchanged on Wednesday. Obviously members are satisfied with the current price level and suggest 68-73 levels to continue for some time.

This week there would be couple of important data releases, especially from the US and UK, along with 2 central banks meetings 'BoJ & SNB'. US data could show more signs of economic recovery with focus on retails sales, CPI, TIC capital flow, and housing market. While UK will be releasing its CPI, which is expected to remain far below BoE's target at 2%, UK jobs report and retails sales would be even released. From the Eurozone focus will be on German ZEW, CPI, and trade balance

ACM FOREX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.





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China And The United States On The Brink Of Commercial Crisis, First Under The New Administration

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ecPulse.com | Sep 14 09 07:50 GMT |

China protested severely on the United States decision to increase tariffs on automobile tires coming from China, in their attempt to preserve their local industry, indicating that this action taken by the U.S. administration violates international trade treaties.

This decision was taken two days ago and will be applicable from September 26, where tariffs on tires imports from China will increase by 35% for the first year, then will fall by 30% for the second year and by 25% for the third year.

Total imports of tires from China reached to 14.6 billion dollars by 2004, representing approximately 1/6 of the US needs. It is worth mentioning that four U.S. tire factories closed in the past two years causing a loss of more than 5 thousand jobs.

In an action interpreted as retaliation, China conducted a series of investigations regarding the dumping and subsidy of auto and chicken imports from the United States. This refers to an illegal entrance of some goods in the market, and selling them below productivity costs in order to deluge markets with certain products in detriment of local the industry that will get hurt.

These tensions precede the next G20 meeting set for later this month, where President Barack Obama will be meeting with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao. China explained through its official statement released on the official website of the Ministry of Trade that the U.S. decision violates trade treaties and promises made during the previous G20 meeting.

Now a series of reactions may be taken by China that could slow the economic recovery that both pledged to support. With this strong rejection by the Chinese government for this protective action made by the U.S. administration, the first trade dispute may appear between the two

Ecpulse

disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk





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Forex Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DeltaStock Inc. | Sep 14 09 09:33 GMT |

EUR/USD

Current level-1.4564

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

As expected, the pair broke below 1.4570 critical level, signalizing that a top is in place and a larger corrective phase is on the run, towards 1.4470-44 support area. Intraday bias is negative, while the pair holds below 1.4569 resistance. Crucial on the upside is 1.4606.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4569 1.4720 1.4512 1.4006
1.4606 1.50+ 1.4470 1.3746

USD/JPY

Current level - 90.70

A short-term bottom has been set at 87.12 and a large consolidation is unfolding since. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 94.86 and 94.84.

Our target at 90.35 was fulfilled and the pair is in a corrective rebound for 92.03. Intraday crucial level is 90.19.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
91.23 95.50 90.19 90.35
92.03 101.45 89.62 87.12

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.6572

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6454 and 1.5258.

Recent high at 1.6741 was confirmed to be the end of the rise from 1.6111, so currently a larger consolidation with a negative bias is underway, targeting 1.6430. Intraday resistance comes at 1.6602, followed by the crucial 1.6625.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.6603 1.7042 1.6515 1.6111
1.6860 1.7440 1.6430 1.5350

DeltaStock Inc. - Online Forex & Securities Broker
www.deltastock.com

RISK DISCLAIMER: These analyses are for information purposes only. They DO NOT post a BUY or SELL recommendation for any of the financial instruments herein analyzed. The information is obtained from generally accessible data sources. The forecasts made are based on technical analysis. However, Delta Stock’s Analyst Dept. also takes into consideration a number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors, which we believe impact the price moves of the observed instruments. Delta Stock Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon the information on this page. Delta Stock Inc. shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation, losses or unrealized gains that may result. Any information is subject to change without notice.





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Romanian Recovery Optimism ‘Premature,’ Capital Economics Says

By Adam Brown

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Romania’s economy, which the central bank says is exiting recession, will contract for a second year as unemployment and bad debt rise and the government cuts spending, Neil Shearing of Capital Economics said.

“It’s premature and a bit worrying to start talking about recovery,” said Shearing, an emerging-Europe economist, in a telephone interview on Sept. 11. “Clearly the outlook has improved but there are still too many downside risks. We see economic contraction of half a percentage point next year.”

Romania’s government has said the economy has started to recover after industrial output and retail sales reports improved and the quarterly contraction in gross domestic product slowed. The government predicts an emergence from recession in the fourth quarter and growth of as much as 1 percent next year.

France and Germany, which Romania relies on for export demand and investment, emerged from their recessions in the second quarter, prompting analysts to predict a recovery across most of eastern European as early as the end of this year.

Romania’s industrial output slump slowed to an annual 6.9 percent in July from 8.9 percent in June and the retail sales drop slowed to an annual 13.8 percent from 17.3 percent, the National Statistics Institute said last week. The contraction slowed to a quarterly 1.1 percent in the second quarter from 2.9 percent in the first quarter.

Recovery Process

“We have started the recovery process, seeing that industrial output has already started to improve,” central bank Governor Mugur Isarescu said on Sept. 9. “There will be more economic growth adjustments in the future.”

While sales and output data improved, unemployment rose to 6.6 percent in August from 6.3 percent in July, exports dropped by 14.5 percent on the year, foreign direct investment plunged almost by half and bad loans more than tripled. On an annual basis, the economic contraction deepened in the second quarter to 8.7 percent from 6.2 percent in the first.

“Bad debt will continue to rise and the labor market will continue to deteriorate, which will further expose the banking sector,” Shearing said. “All in all there are too many uncertainties. And, not least, we will see fiscal policy tightening throughout next year.”

The government has agreed to cut spending and raise some taxes this year and next as part of a 20 billion-euro ($29 billion) international financing package led by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. Romania joined the EU in 2007 along with Bulgaria.

As state revenue declines, the government must cut 1 billion euros in planned spending this year to target a budget deficit of 7.3 percent of gross domestic product. It must cut expenditure further to meet the 2010 deficit target of less than 6 percent.

The government has frozen state wages and created a tax on services this year. It said last month it will send all state workers on 10 days of unpaid leave this year, fire many next year, raise and announce a series of further measures to contain the deficit.

“It’s too early to speak of recovery with so many uncertainties,” Shearing said. “The outlook is much better than it was at the start of the year,” though “our prediction is fresh and based on the latest data.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Brown in Bucharest at abrown23@bloomberg.net





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