Economic Calendar

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Boeing Machinists to Return to Work Today, Ending 8-Week Strike

By Susanna Ray

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co. machinists start returning to work today after accepting a contract with 15 percent raises, ending a strike that idled the planemaker's factories for eight weeks and cut profit by about $10.3 million a day.

The four-year contract was approved last night by 74 percent of the voters, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said in Seattle, home to Chicago-based Boeing's manufacturing hub. The first workers are scheduled to return late today with the start of the third shift.

``We're looking forward to having our team back together to resume the work of building airplanes for our customers,'' said Scott Carson, Boeing's top commercial-planes executive.

The world's No. 2 commercial-jet builder may need until December to get assembly lines back up to speed, said Joseph Campbell, an analyst at Barclays Capital in New York. The strike by the union's 27,000 Boeing members in Washington state, Oregon and Kansas started Sept. 6, costing Boeing about $100 million in lost revenue each day and further delaying the 787 Dreamliner.

``Most of it eventually will be made good, though it'll take a year or more,'' said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with aviation consulting firm Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia. No airlines canceled their orders because of the strike, so ``those customers will get their jets and they will pay for them.''

Boeing has said it will give a new profit forecast and an update on the 787 program after workers return and it can assess the full impact of the stoppage. The company had been building about 40 planes a month to fill a record $276 billion order backlog, boosted by airlines eager to save on fuel by using newer models. That's one reason the union insisted on a bigger share of the profits for its members.

Boeing Shares

The company's shares have fallen 21 percent to $52.42 in New York Stock Exchange trading since the Sept. 3 vote to strike. During that time the global credit crisis ballooned, U.S. gross domestic product contracted and the two-decade expansion in consumer spending came to an end. The walkout was blamed in part for a September decline in U.S. industrial production that was the biggest since 1974.

``There's over seven years of airplanes to be built, and the situation with the financial market didn't change that,'' IAM District 751 President Tom Wroblewski said last night. ``In fact, while we were on strike they even sold more airplanes.''

The 57-day walkout was the third-longest of seven in the union's 73-year history. Workers who averaged $54,000 a year in salary had to get by on union strike pay of $150 a week.

57-Day Walkout

``I think the union's out of touch with reality'' and shouldn't have gone on strike, said Don Icenogle, 45, an inspector at the plane-development center in Seattle who voted ``yes'' both times. ``This isn't that different a contract from the first one, and yet 57 days later it was approved.''

The machinists won raises of 15 percent over four years, bonuses totaling at least $8,000 in the next three years and increased pension payments. In addition, they won't have to pay more for their health-care costs as Boeing had wanted. The new contract runs four years instead of the traditional three, giving Boeing an additional year of labor peace.

Boeing and the union compromised on key issues involving the use of contract workers, which the planemaker said are needed to give it flexibility as conditions change and the union said threaten its members' jobs. Machinists will take back some of the parts deliveries in factories that had been done by suppliers; maintenance workers won't be laid off if subcontractors doing similar jobs are still working; and the union can bid for work Boeing is considering moving to a different plant.

Ramping Back Up

Suppliers including Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. cut hours, laid off workers or reduced earnings projections when they had to slow or halt parts shipments to Boeing. Spirit has said it will need 90 days to return to normal production.

While the machinists will eventually catch up in building models that are already in production, the 787 may be further delayed by the strike. The plane was already at least 15 months behind schedule, because of parts shortages, a redesign and problems with suppliers not doing the work expected. Boeing has said the walkout means a ``day-for-day'' delay.

Goodrich Corp., which makes brakes, engine housings and other parts for the 787, said Oct. 23 that the strike probably would push the plane's entry into service back to 2010.

The machinists' approval on the contract doesn't end Boeing's labor issues. The Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace began negotiations with Boeing this week for its 20,300 members, who have also threatened to strike once their contract ends Dec. 1.

``SPEEA's contract is coming up and Boeing just wanted us to get back to work, so they changed the language just enough to make people think things are better, but nothing's changed,'' said Dorothy Hertel, who voted against the new contract. As a quality-assurance inspector on the 787 assembly line, the 23- year Boeing worker said she hoped for more limitations on outsourcing in the new agreement.

To contact the reporter on this story: Susanna Ray in Seattle at sray7@bloomberg.net.





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Gordon Brown Asks Gulf Wealth Funds to Invest in U.K.

By Gonzalo Vina

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown urged sovereign wealth funds from the Persian Gulf to invest in British companies needing more financing because of the credit crunch.

Brown arrived in Riyadh late yesterday with Business Secretary Peter Mandelson, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and a delegation of business leaders to encourage funding from cash- rich oil producers.

``The Gulf states will have a vital role to play in agreeing the plans to get the world economy moving again,'' Brown told reporters before arriving in Riyadh. They ``are an increasingly important source of inward investment to the U.K. As long as they play by our rules and operate in a commercial manner, we welcome investment from sovereign wealth funds.''

Barclays Plc, Britain's second-biggest bank, earlier this week said it would raise 7.3 billion pounds ($11.8 billion) by selling securities to investors including funds in Abu Dhabi and Qatar. Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of Abu Dhabi's royal family, will become its biggest shareholder.

Sheikh Mansour will collect interest payments of as much as 14 percent and control 16.3 percent of the London-based bank after putting up 5 billion pounds ($8 billion), the company said in a statement yesterday. Barclays fell 13 percent after analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. said the bank was paying a ``fairly expensive'' price for the capital injection.

Energy Projects

Brown's visit coincides with the signing of a number of deals in which Gulf states will invest in renewable energy projects in the U.K.

``Gulf oil and gas revenues have provided masses of finance for the region, but will now also be used to help kick-start the British green energy revolution,'' Miliband told reporters. ``Gulf states recognize the U.K., too, has natural assets to offer investment opportunities for them.''

BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward, Centrica Plc CEO Sam Laidlaw and Royal Dutch Shell Executive Director Malcolm Brinded were among business leaders accompanying Brown.

The initiative comes at a time when oil-rich states are suffering from a plunge in oil prices. Brent crude futures prices have fallen by more than half from a record of more than $147 in July.

Political Interference

Mandelson, a former European Union trade commissioner, said he wants more money from the region to go to the U.K. and that he didn't anticipate difficulties with political interference.

``We haven't had a problem with sovereign wealth funds in the past, so I don't see why it should be a problem in the future,'' he said in an interview. ``They want to generate a good return. They are the first to steer clear of politics.''

Separately, Brown reiterated the need for gulf states to boost the International Monetary Fund's $250 billion cash supply by ``hundreds of billions of dollars.''

``If we are to stop the spread of the financial crisis, we need a better global insurance policy to help distressed economies,'' Brown said. ``That is why I have called for more resources for the IMF.''

Countries including Saudi Arabia will probably contribute more to the IMF ``so we can have a bigger fund worldwide,'' Brown said. ``I think people want to invest both in helping the world get through this very difficult period of time, but also I think people want to work with us so we are less dependent on oil and have more stability in oil prices.''

Arab nations and china haven't been represented enough on international bodies such as the IMF, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gonzalo Vina in Riyahd at gvina@bloomberg.net





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Gulf Bank Continues to Negotiate With Central Bank on Rescue

By Fiona MacDonald

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Kuwait's Gulf Bank K.S.C. is still in talks with the central bank over its rescue after the emirate's second-largest lender by assets was hit by losses on currency derivatives.

``We are still in negotiations to find the best method of dealing with the current situation,'' Fawzy al-Thunayan, general manager for board affairs of Gulf Bank, said in a telephone interview today from Kuwait City.

Kuwait Central Bank Governor Sheikh Salem AbdulAziz al- Sabah said Oct. 26 that Gulf Bank suffered losses from currency derivatives trading after a decline in the value of the euro versus the dollar. The threat of default prompted the governor to offer protection to Gulf Bank's depositors.

Gulf Bank Chairman Kutayba al-Ghanim said Oct. 28 that the bank has ``paid some'' of the losses to ``international markets'' and will release a final figure when payments have been completed.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fiona MacDonald in Kuwait FmacDonald4@bloomberg.net





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Gordon Brown Asks Gulf Wealth Funds to Invest in U.K.

By Gonzalo Vina

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown urged sovereign wealth funds from the Persian Gulf to invest in British companies needing more financing because of the credit crunch.

Brown arrived in Riyadh late yesterday with Business Secretary Peter Mandelson, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and a delegation of business leaders to encourage funding from cash- rich oil producers.

``The Gulf states will have a vital role to play in agreeing the plans to get the world economy moving again,'' Brown told reporters before arriving in Riyadh. They ``are an increasingly important source of inward investment to the U.K. As long as they play by our rules and operate in a commercial manner, we welcome investment from sovereign wealth funds.''

Barclays Plc, Britain's second-biggest bank, earlier this week said it would raise 7.3 billion pounds ($11.8 billion) by selling securities to investors including funds in Abu Dhabi and Qatar. Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of Abu Dhabi's royal family, will become its biggest shareholder.

Sheikh Mansour will collect interest payments of as much as 14 percent and control 16.3 percent of the London-based bank after putting up 5 billion pounds ($8 billion), the company said in a statement yesterday. Barclays fell 13 percent after analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. said the bank was paying a ``fairly expensive'' price for the capital injection.

Energy Projects

Brown's visit coincides with the signing of a number of deals in which Gulf states will invest in renewable energy projects in the U.K.

``Gulf oil and gas revenues have provided masses of finance for the region, but will now also be used to help kick-start the British green energy revolution,'' Miliband told reporters. ``Gulf states recognize the U.K., too, has natural assets to offer investment opportunities for them.''

BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward, Centrica Plc CEO Sam Laidlaw and Royal Dutch Shell Executive Director Malcolm Brinded were among business leaders accompanying Brown.

The initiative comes at a time when oil-rich states are suffering from a plunge in oil prices. Brent crude futures prices have fallen by more than half from a record of more than $147 in July.

Political Interference

Mandelson, a former European Union trade commissioner, said he wants more money from the region to go to the U.K. and that he didn't anticipate difficulties with political interference.

``We haven't had a problem with sovereign wealth funds in the past, so I don't see why it should be a problem in the future,'' he said in an interview. ``They want to generate a good return. They are the first to steer clear of politics.''

Separately, Brown reiterated the need for gulf states to boost the International Monetary Fund's $250 billion cash supply by ``hundreds of billions of dollars.''

``If we are to stop the spread of the financial crisis, we need a better global insurance policy to help distressed economies,'' Brown said. ``That is why I have called for more resources for the IMF.''

Countries including Saudi Arabia will probably contribute more to the IMF ``so we can have a bigger fund worldwide,'' Brown said. ``I think people want to invest both in helping the world get through this very difficult period of time, but also I think people want to work with us so we are less dependent on oil and have more stability in oil prices.''

Arab nations and china haven't been represented enough on international bodies such as the IMF, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gonzalo Vina in Riyahd at gvina@bloomberg.net





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Abu Dhabi Media, Hollywood's Hyde Park Entertainment in Venture

By Ayesha Daya

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Abu Dhabi Media Co., a unit of government investment arm Mubadala Development Co., formed a $250 million venture with Hollywood-based Hyde Park Entertainment to develop feature films.

The companies plan to create as many as 20 films over seven years, including movies on Middle Eastern and Asian cultures, and Hyde Park will open an office in Abu Dhabi called Two Four54, Abu Dhabi Media said in an e-mailed statement today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ayesha Daya in Dubai adaya1@bloomberg.net





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Du Beats Estimates, Posts Profit on New Subscribers

By Shaji Mathew

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Co. beat estimates and posted its first profit as revenue rose after the United Arab Emirates-based phone company added new subscribers.

Net income in the third-quarter was 31 million dirhams ($8.4 million), or 1 fil a share, compared with a loss of 242 million dirhams, or 6 fils a share, in the year-earlier period, the company known as Du said today in a statement on the Web site of Dubai's bourse. Sales more than doubled to 1.05 billion dirhams as the number of subscribers rose to 2.67 million.

``The numbers are a surprise as we had expected Du to report a loss of 14 million dirhams in the third-quarter and make a profit either in the last quarter or early next year,'' Marise Ananian, an analyst at EFG-Hermes Holding SAE, the biggest publicly traded investment bank in Egypt, said in a phone interview from Cairo today.

The U.A.E., which has the second-largest Arab economy after Saudi Arabia, licensed Du in 2006 to reform the telecom industry and introduce competition for the first time. Du competes with Emirates Telecommunications Corp., or Etisalat, the largest telecommunications company in the country.

Shares Gain

Du advanced 0.7 percent to close at 4.17 dirhams, valuing the company at 16.7 billion dirhams. The stock, which rose 6 percent in intra-day trading, has dropped 44 percent this year, compared with a 50 percent decline in the Dubai Financial Market General Index.

``Achieving net profit in just 19 months of operation is a very significant milestone,'' Osman Sultan, Du's chief executive officer, said in the statement. The company had forecast it would achieve a profit by the end of 2009.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shaji Mathew in Dubai at shajimathew@bloomberg.net





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Persian Gulf Shares Rise on Rate Cuts; Dubai Investments Climbs

By Haris Anwar

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Persian Gulf shares gained on optimism interest-rate cuts by central banks around the world will ease the global credit crisis, increasing demand for equities that have been ``oversold.'' Saudi Arabia's Index fell.

Dubai Investments PJSC, which owns stakes in more than 40 companies, climbed after saying third-quarter profit more than doubled. Zain rose for a fourth day as it more than doubled its stake in its Iraqi unit. Bank Muscat SAOG surged the most in more than two weeks.


The Dubai Financial Market General Index added 0.4 percent to 2,955.11, paring the decline for the year to 50 percent. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index gained 1.5 percent and Oman's Muscat Securities Market 30 Index jumped 6.5 percent, the most since Oct. 14. Oman's measure slumped 27 percent last month.

``Risk appetite is increasing after last week's rate cuts,'' Sunil Dhall, vice-president at Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC, said in a telephone interview from Oman. ``The regional markets were already oversold, so what we're seeing is a rebound that might continue for some time.''

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain lowered key lending rates as the crisis gave Gulf central banks more flexibility in following U.S. Federal Reserve cuts. Gulf states tend to follow U.S. rate decisions to maintain their currencies' pegs to the dollar. U.S. stocks staged their steepest weekly surge in 34 years after the Fed's interest-rate cut and signs the credit crisis is ebbing boosted equities. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 1.5 percent on Oct. 31, and 10 percent during the week.

Qatari Surge

Before today's gain, Dubai's benchmark stock index was valued at 7.14 times the earnings of its 29 companies, the lowest level since at least February 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Abu Dhabi's index now trades at 8.09 and Oman's measure at 5.98 times profit. The three are cheaper than the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which Oct. 31 was valued at 8.24 times profit.

In Qatar, the DSM 20 Index surged 5.2 percent, the Kuwait Stock Exchange Index rose 0.8 percent and the Bahrain All Share Index added 0.5 percent. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index declined 1.2 percent.

Dubai Investments gained 2.6 percent to 1.96 dirhams. Net income for the period climbed to 634.8 million dirhams ($173 million) as property sales increased.

Zain advanced 1.7 percent to 1,180 fils. The Kuwaiti phone company with operations in 22 countries in the Middle East and Africa raised its stake in its Iraqi unit to 62 percent from 30 percent.

Bank Muscat, Oman's largest lender, soared 7 percent to 0.963 rial, the biggest one-day advance since Oct. 14.

The following stocks also rose or fell in the region. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names:

Abu Dhabi National Takaful Co. (TKFL UH), a United Arab Emirates-based Islamic insurance and reinsurance provider, surged 7.3 percent to 8.69 dirhams after it posted a third- quarter profit of 3.25 million dirhams compared with a loss of 277,465 dirhams in the year-earlier period.

Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Co. (DU UH), known as Du, rose 0.7 percent to 4.17 dirhams. The U.A.E.-based company beat estimates and posted its first profit as revenue rose after it added new subscribers.

Ithmaar Bank BSC (ITHMR BI), a Bahrain-based Islamic lender, climbed 8.9 percent, the most since Feb. 5, to 49 cents after announcing plans to set up a $6 billion fund to invest in Turkey with Abu Dhabi Investment House and Gulf Finance House EC.

To contact the reporter on this story: Haris Anwar in Dubai on Hanwar2@bloomberg.net




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Gulf Citizens Beg for Bailout Amid Stock Rout: Week Ahead

By Glen Carey and Matthew Brown

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Abdullah Hajeri led a march on the Emir's palace in Kuwait last week, demanding the oil-rich nation's ruler stop stocks from plunging. Adnan Mohammed Saleh, down the Persian Gulf coast in Dubai, said he wants more government protection from the global financial crisis.

``Every day the market is crashing,'' said Saleh, a 42- year-old trader, staring dumbfounded last Tuesday as company names scrolled across the Dubai Stock Exchange's outdoor ticker in red.

The region's rulers are under pressure from citizens to shore up investors, not just banks, as they try to fend off what may be the worst economic crisis since December 1998, when oil at $10.35 a barrel forced them to slash spending. Crude prices have fallen 50 percent from a record $147.27 in July, and stock indexes in Dubai and Saudi Arabia are down by as much this year.

Gulf economies are more susceptible to financial turmoil than in the past because of their greater dependency on international expertise, investment and tourists to diversify away from oil. While Dubai, home to the world's tallest building and the man-made Palm Island, is considered most at risk, no part of the Persian Gulf will go untouched.

``There is no way you can say that any trouble in Dubai is going to be isolated,'' Georges Makhoul, Morgan Stanley's president for the Middle East and North Africa, said in an interview in London. ``The biggest threat is going to be local confidence in the local economy, whether it's in Dubai or Abu Dhabi or anywhere else.''

No Investors Left

There aren't many international investors left in the region, he added.

Regional competition to attract investors and tourists from around the world led to a surge in record-breaking projects.

Dubai is racing against Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal's investment company to build the world's first kilometer-tall tower. Saudi Arabia has turned a spot on its Red Sea coast into the biggest property development in the Middle East. Now little more than sand and construction cranes, the $120 billion King Abdullah Economic City is meant to create 1 million jobs and be home to 2 million residents.

Projects risk going unfinished or becoming white elephants if economies around the world go into recession, keeping international investors and tourists closer to home.

Dubai's plans, including the Disneyland-style ``Dubailand'' that will be three times the size of Manhattan, are predicated on doubling the number of tourists annually to reach 15 million visitors by 2015.

``Many of the projects being marketed in the Gulf today will get shelved,'' Kamel Lazaar, chairman of Riyadh-based financial advisory firm Swicorp, said Oct. 7. ``The price of land has been inflated. It will have to correct.''

`Better Suited'

Kuwait on Wednesday became the third Gulf state to prop up its banking system. It did so after losses on currency derivatives at Gulf Bank KSC, the country's second-largest lender by assets, sparked a surge in customer withdrawals from the bank.

The United Arab Emirates said Oct. 12 it would guarantee deposits of all local lenders and large foreign banks. It also set up a $19 billion facility to help banks make loans. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, put $2.7 billion into a government-run bank in Riyadh to provide no-fee loans to low- income citizens.

``We are going to be impacted, but we are better suited than anyone else to deal with the problems,'' Hareb Al-Darmaki, executive director of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, said Oct. 28 at a London conference for companies from the United Arab Emirates' richest member. ``We have the ammunition.''

Societal Setback

The emirate has almost 8 percent of the world's oil reserves and a sovereign wealth fund with assets between $250 billion and $875 billion, according to a range of estimates compiled by the International Monetary Fund. Even with its decline, oil still averages $110 a barrel for the year.

Residents of the region are used to government intervention. All Gulf countries are run by unelected rulers who maintain political power through tribal allegiances and marriages. Generous state welfare programs have traditionally damped demands for more political participation.

How the region's rulers cope with the turmoil may define relations with their people in the future, as they try to wean their subjects off state handouts and encourage them to find jobs and embrace market capitalism.

``There's no question that it sets back the move from socialist, paternalistic societies toward more modern capitalist states,'' said Gabriel Stein, a director at London's Lombard Street Research, which provides economic analysis to investors and companies. ``It is a trend that we have seen all over the world. The immediate reaction is that you told us to do this, so now things are going wrong it's up to you to help us out.''

Market `Destruction'

On Oct. 27, Hajeri, an independent equity trader, and 20 peers marched from the Kuwait Stock Exchange's trading floor to the emir's office to demand that the government close the exchange. Rebuffed, Hajeri said it meant ``destruction to the market and the Kuwait people.''

All capital markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have declined and interest rates have increased since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. sought bankruptcy protection on Sept. 15.

Foreign investors were net sellers of more than 5 billion dirhams ($1.4 billion) of shares on the Dubai Stock Exchange since the beginning of August, more than 1 percent of its current market value, according to bourse data.

`More Integrated'

``The U.S. financial crisis has ramifications for all countries, including the Gulf,'' U.S. Deputy Secretary of Treasury Robert Kimmitt said this week during a speech in Dubai, where he met representatives of sovereign wealth funds. ``Our capital markets are more integrated than ever before, allowing opportunities, but also financial difficulties, to spread rapidly across borders.''

Of the Gulf states, Dubai may be hardest hit by a global economic slowdown because it has borrowed more to finance its transformation from a Persian Gulf trading post to a financial and tourist hub, and has only 4 billion barrels of oil reserves.

Government-controlled companies owe at least $47 billion, more than Dubai's gross domestic product, and they will continue to accumulate debt faster than the economy grows, Moody's Investors Service estimated in an Oct. 13 report. It concluded that Dubai may need financing help from Abu Dhabi.

Dubai-based Emaar Properties PJSC has shed more than 26 percent since Sept. 15 as investors lost confidence in the ability of the Middle East's biggest publicly traded real- estate developer to finance projects by borrowing through local and international banks.

Real Estate Bust?

Dubai property prices will likely remain unchanged through 2010 after quadrupling in the past five years, Colliers CRE Plc said Oct. 5.

``There is a liquidity and credit crunch and now oil prices have fallen from $140 to $70,'' said Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University. ``I see the risk of a real- estate bust throughout the Gulf, but specifically in Dubai, and there's a huge amount of excess capacity being built.''

That's not keeping investors from betting on pain across the region. The cost of protecting debt from default has jumped more than fivefold since July for Abu Dhabi and Dubai, according to trading in credit default swaps. The cost of insuring Saudi Arabian government debt has risen 51 percent since Sept. 18.

The price of oil may determine whether governments can maintain government spending and support economic growth.

``If prices drop by $15 a barrel from the $60 to $70 mark, then they will probably not break even in terms of their budgets,'' said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Saudi British Bank in Riyadh.

Markets Last Week

All seven Gulf stock markets tracked by Bloomberg fell last week on concern the deepening global slowdown will turn into a recession, cutting profits at real-state and financial companies.

Oman's Muscat Securities Market 30 Index slumped 12 percent, Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index tumbled 10 percent and Dubai's Index lost 9.7 percent.

Most markets rose on Oct. 30, the last trading day of the week, after the U.S., China and some local central banks cut interest rates to boost bank lending and economic growth.

The following is a list of events in the Persian Gulf next week:


Event                              Date
Islamic Funds World, Dubai Nov. 2-4
Abu Dhabi International Petroleum
Exhibition and Conference Nov. 3-6

To contact the reporter on this story: Glen Carey in Dubai at gcarey8@bloomberg.net; Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net





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Teva Pharmaceutical Third-Quarter Net May Rise 15%: Week Ahead

By David Rosenberg

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., the world's biggest maker of generic drugs, will probably say this week that third-quarter earnings rose 15 percent on sales of new products and its proprietary Copaxone drug.

Teva, which is also the biggest Tel Aviv Stock Exchange- traded company by market value, will post adjusted net income of $604 million, or 71 cents a share, up from $525 million, or 64 cents, a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 12 analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Revenue will climb about 24 percent to $2.93 billion from $2.37 billion in the same period in 2007, according to the survey. Teva is paying $7.5 billion for Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. of the U.S. to expand in eastern Europe and gain contraceptives such as Plan B, the ``morning-after pill.'' Teva and Barr report results on Nov. 6.

``U.S. generic sales grew more slowly than in Europe and the rest of the world, and there may even have been some erosion in older generics,'' Noa Weisberg, an analyst at Israel Brokerage & Investments in Tel Aviv, said by phone. ``But new generics are the name of the game, and Teva has most of the biggest selling products. Together with Barr, its pipeline will be even bigger.''

Teva said Oct. 27 that it expects to complete takeover of Barr, of Montvale, New Jersey, by the end of this year. The U.S. now accounts for about 57 percent of sales for Teva, which is based in Petah Tikva, Israel.

Sales of Copaxone, the company's multiple sclerosis treatment, probably grew 28 percent in the U.S., said Weisberg, who rates the stock a ``buy'' and estimates its U.S.-traded shares will reach $55 in the next 12 months.

Since it ended a joint marketing agreement with Sanofi- Aventis SA in the first quarter, Teva has been capturing 100 percent of all profit on Copaxone sales instead of sharing it equally with the French company, she said.

Markets Last Week

Last week in Israel, the benchmark 6.5 percent Shahar bond due in January 2016 declined, with the yield rising 55 basis points to 6.08 percent. The shekel weakened 1.8 percent as of Oct. 23 to 3.7950 per dollar from 3.7270 a week earlier.

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange's benchmark TA-25 Index dropped 5.2 percent to 725.47. Delek Group Ltd., the energy and property holding company controlled by Yitzhak Tshuva, was the biggest decliner, losing 23 percent. Africa Israel Ltd., a real estate company controlled by Lev Leviev, declined by 22 percent.

Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister and leader of the Kadima Party, gave up her efforts to form a coalition Oct. 26 and asked President Shimon Peres to call early elections. A general election will probably take place in the first half of February.

The following is a list of important events in Israel next week:


Event                                   Date
October budget report 2
Bank of Israel Governor briefs press 3
Alvarion third-quarter results 3
Partner third-quarter results 5
Amdocs third-quarter results 5

To contact the reporter on this story: David Rosenberg in Jerusalem at drosenberg1@bloomberg.net





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Chinese Consumer Group Probes Microsoft Piracy Plan, Post Says

By Aaron Pan

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The China Consumers' Association is investigating whether Microsoft Corp.'s anti-piracy software is breaching consumers' rights, the South China Morning Post reported, citing the Beijing News.

The mainland's biggest consumer rights organization asked more than 30 lawyers, professors and industry experts to discuss whether Microsoft's software infringes China's personal privacy and antitrust laws, the newspaper said.

Last month, Microsoft started a new anti-piracy effort in mainland China to test the legitimacy of users' software, the Post said. Computers failing the company's tests would be left with a black screen or sent a warning.

Microsoft, the world's biggest software maker, will adopt a more flexible pricing strategy in China to make legitimate software more affordable, the newspaper added, citing Lin Congwu, a Microsoft China marketing manager.

To contact the reporter on this story: Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at Apan8@bloomberg.net





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Bank of China's Zhu Sees Global Crisis Hurting China, Post Says

By Aaron Pan

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Zhu Min, vice president of Bank of China Ltd., said the global financial crisis will hurt China and the country is only beginning to feel the impact, the South China Morning Post reported, citing Zhu.

China has already seen ``a sharp slowdown in industrial profit growth and fiscal income'' and the crisis will ``precede economic and political turmoil by eight to 12 months,'' the Post cited Zhu saying at a conference in Shanghai.

Zhu also forecast the U.S., Europe and Japan to post negative economic growth that will directly hurt China, the newspaper said.

Bank of China is the nation's oldest lender.

To contact the reporter on this story: Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at Apan8@bloomberg.net





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