Economic Calendar

Monday, October 17, 2011

MTN Group Said to Be Bidding for Vodacom’s Congo Mobile Venture

By Sikonathi Mantshantsha and Michael J. Kavanagh - Oct 17, 2011 8:05 PM GMT+0700

MTN Group Ltd. (MTN), Africa’s largest mobile-phone operator, is seeking to buy Vodacom Group Ltd. (VOD)’s operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

MTN is part of a bidding process for Vodacom Congo SPRL, the people said, declining to be identified because the matter is confidential. MTN, the Johannesburg-based company that operates in 22 markets across Africa and the Middle East, made a presentation to Vodacom last week and there is no outcome yet as the process hasn’t been completed, one of the people said.

Vodacom, which is also based in Johannesburg, is still busy with a process being run by London’s NM Rothschild & Sons Ltd. to “explore options” for its Congo unit, spokesman Richard Boorman said in an e-mailed response to questions today. MTN “continues to search for value-enhancing opportunities everywhere,” spokesman Rich Mkhondo said in a mobile phone text message in response to questions.

Vodafone Group Plc-controlled Vodacom, which owns 51 percent of Vodacom Congo, has been in a dispute with 49 percent shareholder Congolese Wireless Network SPRL over the funding and operational structure of the joint venture since at least early 2010. The dispute follows a capital injection of $484 million into the business by Vodacom. The company may sell its stake to end the dispute, Chief Executive Officer Pieter Uys said on May. 16.

Vodacom’s Congo unit had 4.2 million subscribers at the end of March, the company said in its annual report, released on July 1. MTN currently doesn’t operate in Congo, which the CIA World Fact Book estimates has a population of 71.7 million.

To contact the reporters on this story: Sikonathi Mantshantsha in Johannesburg at smantshantsh@bloomberg.net; Michael J. Kavanagh in Kinshasa at mkavanagh9@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kenneth Wong at kwong11@bloomberg.net




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RIM Says Offers Companies Month of Free Technical Support After Disruption

By Jonathan Browning - Oct 17, 2011 4:53 PM GMT+0700

Research in Motion Ltd. (RIM) will offer corporate clients one month of free technical support as it tries to retain customers following one of its worst BlackBerry service disruptions.

RIM will also give subscribers free access to online gaming applications for one month, the company said in an e-mailed statement today.

“We have apologized to our customers and we will work tirelessly to restore their confidence,” Co-Chief Executive Officer Mike Lazaridis said. “We are taking immediate and aggressive steps to help prevent something like this from happening again.”

BlackBerry subscribers across most parts of the world, including U.S. and Canada, last week lost data services after a network failure in the U.K. halted messaging and Web browsing. RIM, based in Waterloo, Ontario, said it will study compensation for the disruption after some wireless carriers including Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) offered refunds to some BlackBerry users.

RIM will face “defections” to Apple Inc. after the U.S. company started selling its new iPhone, Matt Thornton, an analyst at Avian Securities LLC in Boston said last week. Most estimates for first weekend sales ranged from 2 million to 3 million, with Yankee Group analyst Carl Howe predicting up to 4 million.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Browning in London at jbrowning9@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Kenneth Wong at kwong11@bloomberg.net;




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Apple Sells Over 4M IPhones Over Weekend

By Adam Satariano - Oct 17, 2011 9:52 PM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Apple Sells Over 4 Million IPhones in Debut Weekend

With iPhone head gear, people await for the opening of Softbanks flagship store in Tokyos Harajuku section as Apples new smartphone, iPhone 4S, goes on sale on October 14, 2011. Photograph: AFLO/Newscom

Customers are seen silhouetted against an advertisement for the Apple Inc. iPhone 4S smartphone in the company's store at Covent Garden in London. Photographer: Matthew Lloyd/Bloomberg

Customers try an Apple Inc. iPhone 4S smartphone at a KDDI Corp. shop in Tokyo. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloombe

Apple Inc. (AAPL) sold more than 4 million iPhone 4S devices in the first three days after it was introduced, setting a record as customers lined up at stores from Sydney to San Francisco to be first with the new touch- screen handset.

That’s more than double the 1.7 million iPhones sold by Cupertino, California-based Apple last year, during the introduction of the previous model.

Demand for the new device extends Apple’s lead as the top maker of smartphones as it fends off rivals including Samsung Electronics Co. and HTC Corp. that rely on Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android software. U.S. wireless partners Verizon Wireless, AT&T Inc. (T) and Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) reported high activation rates for the new iPhone, which has new voice-recognition software, a speedier processor and higher-quality camera.

“Higher-than-expected sales may have been the result of availability at Verizon and Sprint in addition to AT&T, broader international distribution, positive reviews, timing of the iPhone 3GS hardware upgrade availability and possible Steve Jobs tribute-related demand,” said Mike Abramsky, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, in a research note today. He had projected sales of about 3 million units for the debut weekend.

The iPhone 4S went on sale Oct. 14 in the U.S., Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the U.K., in Apple’s first hardware release since the Oct. 5 death of former Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs. The company also has debuted iCloud, for wirelessly synchronizing music, pictures and documents across Apple devices, and iOS 5 mobile software.

Lines Worldwide

Customers lined up outside stores in cities including Frankfurt, Tokyo, San Francisco and New York. Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak was among the first to get a handset at the store in Los Gatos, California. With a two-year contract, the iPhone 4S costs $199, $299 or $399, depending on amount of memory.

The stock rose less than a percent to $425.32 at 10:44 a.m. New York time. Expectations for high sales helped push Apple’s shares up 3.3 percent to $422 in U.S. trading on Oct. 14. The shares have risen 31 percent this year before today.

Sales from this weekend won’t be included in Apple’s fourth-quarter results, due to be reported Oct. 18. In the period, profit jumped 62 percent to $6.98 billion on sales of $29.6 billion, according to the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

‘Apples-to-Apples’

“Based on launch sales, we think 60 percent year-over-year growth for the December 2011 quarter will prove to be conservative,” said Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray Cos., in a note to clients today.

The launch figures aren’t “a perfect apples-to-apples comparison” because the 4S model was effectively available for 2.5 days during its debut weekend, while the prior model was only “effectively available” for 1.25 days before the website crashed and inventory was sold out, said Munster, who rates the stock ‘overweight’ with a target price of $422.

For the quarter now underway, Apple may sell more than 27 million iPhones, Abramsky estimated. He said sales for fiscal 2012 may reach 110 million and he rates the stock ‘outperform.’

Apple said more than 25 million customers are already using iOS 5, the new mobile operating system, in the first five days of its release, according to a statement today. More than 20 million customers have signed up for iCloud, a service for storing and accessing content over the Internet.

To contact the reporters on this story: Adam Satariano in San Francisco at asatariano1@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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European Stocks Decline; Greek Banks, G4S Retreat as BP Climbs

By Adria Cimino - Oct 17, 2011 8:59 PM GMT+0700

European stocks fell as a German government spokesman said that euro-area leaders will not provide a quick ending to the debt crisis at their next meeting.

National Bank of Greece SA (ETE), the country’s biggest lender, led bank shares lower. G4S Plc (GFS) slumped 20 percent after agreeing to acquire ISS A/S. BP Plc gained 2.9 percent after saying that Anadarko Petroleum Corp. will pay $4 billion to settle all claims for last year’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.7 percent to 236.91 at 2:58 p.m. in London, erasing an earlier gain of as much as 1.5 percent, after Germany’s government said that the European Union’s Oct. 23 summit will not provide a complete fix to the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis. More than four stocks fell for every one that rose.

“Markets are off their earlier highs on the back of wary comments from Germany suggesting that the upcoming EU summit won’t present a final solution for the euro-zone debt crisis,” said Stephane Ekolo, chief European strategist at Market Securities in London. “These comments remind investors how difficult it is to find a solution regarding the euro-zone woes. The problems are still out there and the solution isn’t really coming.”

Germany Damps Optimism

Stocks erased earlier gains after Steffen Seibert, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief spokesman, told reporters in Berlin that European leaders won’t fulfill “dreams” of a quick end to the debt crisis at the Oct. 23 summit.

The Stoxx 600 advanced 2.8 percent last week. The gauge has still retreated 18 percent from this year’s high on Feb. 17 as concern mounted that Greece will default, pushing borrowing costs higher for other indebted euro-area countries. The gauge traded at 9 times its companies’ estimated earnings on Sept. 22, the cheapest since March 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors concluded weekend talks in Paris endorsing parts of the emerging plan to avoid a Greek default, bolster banks and curb contagion.

The euro area’s plan, which has yet to be made public, includes writing down Greek bonds by as much as 50 percent, establishing a backstop for banks and magnifying the strength of the 440 billion-euro ($606 billion) temporary rescue fund known as the European Financial Stability Facility, people familiar with the matter said last week.

Hurdles to Overcome

Hurdles to overcome for the accord include resistance from bankers to a deeper restructuring of Greek debt as well as disagreements between Europe’s capitals over just how to multiply the firepower of their bailout fund and recapitalize financial institutions.

National benchmark indexes fell in 16 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 Index slipped 0.6 percent. Germany’s DAX Index lost 1 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell 0.3 percent. Greece’s ASE Index plunged 3.2 percent for the biggest decline of 18 national gauges.

National Bank of Greece sank 8.2 percent to 1.67 euros. Piraeus Bank SA (TPEIR) retreated 10 percent to 25.7 euro cents. EFG Eurobank Ergasias tumbled 9.5 percent to 66.1 euro cents.

A Federal Reserve report showed that industrial production, or output from factories, mines and utilities, increased 0.2 percent in September, matching the average economist estimate.

A separate report showed that manufacturing in the New York area contracted in October more than economists had forecast. The Empire State Index covering New York, northern New Jersey, and southern Connecticut gave a reading of minus 8.5, a larger drop than the average estimate of minus 4 in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

G4S Drops

G4S Plc slumped 20 percent to 226.4 pence for the largest drop on the Stoxx 600. The world’s largest security provider agreed to acquire ISS for about 5.2 billion pounds ($8.2 billion), of which 3.7 billion pounds is assumed debt, to add cleaning and other facilities-management services and accelerate expansion in emerging markets.

BP Plc (BP/) soared 2.9 percent to 428.3 pence. BP, Europe’s second-largest oil company, said Anadarko will pay to settle all claims over the world’s largest accidental oil spill.

Anadarko, which had a 25 percent stake in the Gulf of Mexico well, will no longer pursue allegations of gross negligence against BP, the London-based company said.

Aviva Plc (AV/), the U.K.’s second-biggest insurer by market value, climbed 1.1 percent to 342.7 pence after the stock was raised to “buy” from “neutral” at UBS AG.

SGL Carbon Stake

SGL Carbon SE (SGL) soared 10 percent to 41.88 euros, its highest price since August 2008. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) plans to buy a stake in the German maker of carbon and graphite materials, Spiegel said, citing an unidentified manager at the automaker.

Air France-KLM (AF) Group, Europe’s second-largest airline by sales, increased 3 percent to 5.69 euros. The company’s board meets today to vote on ousting Chief Executive Officer Pierre- Henri Gourgeon, according to two people with knowledge of the proposals.

L’Oreal SA (OR), the world’s biggest cosmetics company, advanced 1.4 percent to 79.59 euros. A French judged ruled that L’Oreal heiress and France’s third-richest person, Liliane Bettencourt, was mentally unfit to manage her own affairs. The court appointed Bettencourt’s daughter to manage her assets.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net.




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London Exchange Access Curbed as Protests Spread

By Howard Mustoe, Elisa Martinuzzi and Michael Heath - Oct 17, 2011 9:55 PM GMT+0700

Police sealed off routes to the London Stock Exchange and Italian officers conducted nationwide raids following protests against economic inequality on four continents.

Metropolitan Police officers carrying batons and gas sprays manned steel barriers close to St Paul’s Cathedral in London, blocking supporters of the Occupy London Stock Exchange group from approaching the LSE. At least 25 police vans with wire-mesh screens and carrying additional officers were parked in side streets.

“We’ll stay for however long it takes to build a new democratic financial system,” said Kai Wargalla, a 26 year-old German studying sustainable economics in London, who’s one of those camping next to Christopher Wren’s 17th century church. “It’s about creating something new.”

The Occupy Wall Street demonstrations began last month, with about 6,000 people gathering in Times Square for what organizers called a “global day of action against Wall Street greed” on Oct. 15. The protests then spread to Europe and Asia, with more than 100 people injured in Rome after as many as 200,000 people gathered, the Corriere della Sera newspaper reported.

Italian police today launched raids in cities including Rome and Milan, according to the Ansa news agency, while gas masks and balaclavas were seized in Florence.

A board placed on Paternoster Square, home to the LSE, said the area is private and that “any licence to the public to enter or cross this land is revoked forthwith.”

‘Working Groups’

The St Paul’s demonstrators had divided into “working groups” to formulate their demands and organize a kitchen, said protest spokeswoman Wargalla, who estimated as many as 250 people were taking part. About 4,000 people had signaled their intent to attend, a spokeswoman said on Oct. 12.

The London demonstrators said in an e-mailed statement that they opposed bailing out banks, public expenditure cuts, arms dealing, corporate profits, global oppression and war, while supporting genuinely independent regulators and “authentic” global equality.

The campers had been given indefinite permission to remain by cathedral authorities, who also asked police to leave the area, Wargalla said, and this “sets the stage for long-term occupation.” An e-mailed statement from the cathedral today did not explicitly support the protest and said that the building must remain open to the public. Clerics would not be giving interviews, a spokeswoman said.

‘Jail the Bankers’

“I want to see stricter regulation of the finance system,” said Joe Spence, 23, an anthropology student at Kent University. “I want a government that will not just pander to the banks.” A notice at the campsite, about 100 yards from the LSE, read “Jail the Bankers.”

A capitalist economy “is the quickest way to generate wealth,” LSE Chief Executive Officer Xavier Rolet said at a conference in London on Oct. 14. “What is profoundly disliked by -- I wouldn’t say average citizens in the street -- is the boom and bust cycle of the capitalist economy. This is directly connected in the mind of citizens to unemployment.”

In Amsterdam, protesters lined up at the entrance of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange this morning and greeted employees with slogans, broadcaster AT5 reported. Demonstrators burnt fake money and hosted an alternative exchange, bidding for “shares” titled stress, health, future and happiness.

About 50 people took over a disused hotel close to the Puerta del Sol square, the focus of demonstrations in Madrid, Efe news agency reported.

Chicago Arrests

In Zurich, an estimated 1,200 protesters at the weekend occupied the Paradeplatz, home of Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), the Swiss Social Democratic Party’s youth organization said in a press release. Over 60 people stayed overnight, until police asked them to leave this morning. Protests have now moved to the nearby Lindenhof, overlooking Zurich’s old town.

In Australia, about 30 people gathered in front of the central bank in Sydney. Signs on a nearby fence included: “When I do it, it’s counterfeiting. When the Reserve Bank does it, it’s called Quantitative Easing.” Another 70 protesters occupied Melbourne’s city square in front of the Westin Hotel.

Chicago police arrested about 175 protesters in Grant Park around 1 a.m. local time yesterday after they refused to disperse, the Chicago Tribune reported.

‘The 99 Percent’

Tokyo, Toronto and other cities also saw protests in support of the month-old movement, which organizers say represents “the 99 percent,” a nod to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz’s study showing the top 1 percent of Americans control 40 percent of U.S. wealth.

In Hong Kong, protests extended for a second day yesterday after about 40 demonstrators slept overnight in a foyer beneath the Asian headquarters of HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) in the central financial district.

Equipped with tents, bullhorns and a gas-powered generator used to help them recharge their laptops, the protesters occupied the public thoroughfare under the building as about a dozen police stood by. Demonstrations were also held in Seoul and Taipei.

“Wall Street has a campaign to start asking questions about capitalism but this is not enough,” said art student Derrick Benig, 22, who slept in a tent overnight in Hong Kong. “I want to tear down capitalism.”

In Rome on Oct. 15, firecrackers were thrown at the Ministry of Defense and windows of Cassa di Risparmio di Rimini and Poste Italiane SpA shattered, Sky TG24 reported. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi called “the unbelievable violence” in Rome “a worrying signal for civil coexistence.”

‘Violent Extremists’

“Violent extremists have to be identified and punished,” Berlusconi said in a statement.

More than 800 people have been arrested in New York since the protests began Sept. 17, mostly for disorderly conduct, as demonstrators solidified their hold on Zuccotti Park, which has become the de facto epicenter of Occupy Wall Street.

A wider confrontation was avoided after the park’s owner, Brookfield Office Properties Inc., postponed a cleanup that would have removed and banned protesters’ sleeping bags, tents and other gear that provided overnight accommodations.

Protesters and local politicians had gathered 300,000 signatures, flooded the city’s 311 information line and drew more than 3,000 people to the park to oppose the cleanup, according to Patrick Bruner, an Occupy Wall Street spokesman.

“The world will rise up as one and say, ‘We have had enough,’” Bruner said in an e-mail. A news release from the organization said there were demonstrations in 1,500 cities worldwide, including 100 in the U.S.

To contact the reporters on this story: Howard Mustoe at hmustoe@bloomberg.net Elisa Martinuzzi in Milan at emartinuzzi@bloomberg.net Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net




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Citigroup Profit Rises 74%, Beats Estimates

By Donal Griffin - Oct 17, 2011 8:05 PM GMT+0700

Citigroup Inc. (C), the third-biggest U.S. bank, said profit rose 74 percent, beating analysts’ estimates on a $1.9 billion accounting gain and a reduction in losses tied to soured loans.

Net income for the third quarter was $3.77 billion, or $1.23 a share, compared with $2.17 billion, or 72 cents, in the same period a year earlier, the New York-based bank said today in a statement. The average estimate of 25 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 82 cents. Excluding the accounting benefit, earnings per share were 84 cents.

Citigroup’s credit-valuation adjustment, or CVA, mirrored a $1.9 billion gain by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) last week. The benefit helped Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit, 54, weather a quarter in which its shares tumbled 38 percent amid concern revenue from trading and investment-banking would drop because of Europe’s debt crisis and the U.S. debt-ceiling fight. Excluding the accounting adjustment, revenue dropped 8 percent.

“They are making progress,” Thomas Brown, CEO of Second Curve Capital LLC, said in an interview with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” “All the big banks, I think, are moving in the right direction.”

Citigroup rose to $28.93 at 8:38 a.m. in New York, from $28.40 at the close on Oct. 14. Shares of the company were down 40 percent this year through last week. The KBW Bank Index (BKX), which tracks the performance of 24 U.S. banks, fell 27 percent.

Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), the largest U.S. home lender, said year- over-year net income rose 22 percent to a record $4.06 billion, while revenue declined to $19.6 billion from $20.4 billion in the second quarter.

Citigroup said last month it would limit hiring to only “critical” jobs as Pandit, whose strategy is to expand in emerging markets, tries to control costs. Pandit is also trying to boost revenue as new regulations on minimum capital levels take effect.

“Citi continues to navigate a challenging economic environment and delivered another quarter of solid operating results,” Pandit said in the statement. “We continue to manage our risk prudently while growing the businesses that are core to our strategy.”

Citigroup’s total revenue including the CVA gain was $20.8 billion, compared with $20.7 billion for the same period last year. Excluding the adjustment, revenue fell to $18.9 billion. The bank’s expenses rose 8 percent to $12.5 billion as Pandit increased operations in Latin America and Asia.

Expense Outlook

Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach said in July that the annual total for expenses will probably exceed the range of between $48 billion and $50 billion previously given by the company.

The bank’s losses on bad loans dropped 41 percent to $4.51 billion from $7.66 billion for the same period last year, as fewer customers missed their payments. Citigroup reduced its provision for losses on future loans by $1.42 billion, compared with $1.97 billion last year.

The CVA helped Citigroup’s securities and banking unit, which includes trading and investment banking, post a $2.14 billion profit compared with $1.36 billion for the same period last year and $1.19 billion in the previous quarter. Excluding the CVA, revenue tumbled across all trading and investment- banking businesses amid market turmoil caused by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and concerns that the global economy was weakening, the bank said.

Fixed Income

Revenue from fixed-income trading excluding the accounting change fell 33 percent to $2.3 billion from about $3.5 billion in the same period last year and $3.03 billion in the second quarter of this year.

“When an investor looks at the results, they should look at the core operations,” said David Knutson, a credit analyst with Legal & General Investment Management in Chicago. “The CVA will offset the operating weaknesses primarily in investment banking.”

Most of the accounting gain stems from a rule that required Citigroup to write down the value of its debts as investors grew less confident of the bank’s ability to repay them during the quarter. This led to a widening of the bank’s credit spreads, the extra yield investors demand to own a corporate bond rather than U.S. Treasury notes. Credit-default swaps tied to Citigroup’s debt, which typically climb as investor confidence deteriorates, soared during the quarter.

The gain is required under the theory that a profit would be realized if the debt were repurchased at a discount.

Equity Trading

Revenue from trading equities tumbled 73 percent to $289 million from $1 billion last year and from $812 million in the second quarter, excluding the CVA gain. The bank blamed a slump in revenue from “principal strategies,” which includes proprietary trading, where Citigroup places its own money on market bets. Revenue from the trading of derivatives, contracts whose value is derived from financial instruments including shares, also declined.

Derek Bandeen runs Citigroup’s equities business. In an April overhaul, Bandeen promoted Mike Pringle to a new position leading global equities trading, placing him in charge of risk, trading personnel and use of capital, according to an internal memo.

Fees from investment banking, which includes advising clients on mergers and acquisitions as well as managing sales of customers’ bonds and shares, fell 21 percent to $736 million from $930 million last year, the bank said. Citigroup underwrote $21.1 billion of U.S. corporate bonds during the third quarter, down from $35.8 billion for the same period last year, as overall issuance tumbled, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Not Immune

“There was no product set or geography that allowed you to escape the volatility that plagued this quarter,” said Charles Peabody, an analyst with Portales Partners LLC, who has a “hold” rating on the firm’s shares. “Citigroup will not be immune from that.”

Profit at the bank’s transaction-services unit slid 3 percent to $892 million as expenses tied to “continued investment spending” increased 17 percent to $1.44 billion.

Citigroup’s regional consumer bank, run by Manuel Medina- Mora, boosted profit by 31 percent to $1.61 billion, the company said. The North America division’s revenue slumped 9 percent to $3.42 billion. Profit increased to $692 million from $177 million last year due to a release from loan-loss reserves and fewer bad loans.

International Banking

Consumer-banking profit from outside the U.S. fell 12 percent to $919 million, Citigroup said. While sales gained 10 percent, operating expenses rose 12 percent to $2.9 billion, due in part to investments and the impact of foreign exchange, according to the bank.

“It’s important that Citi maintains its focus on growing emerging-market operations, particularly at a time when many competitors are on the back foot, having to contemplate shrinking overseas,” said Richard Staite, an analyst with Atlantic Equities LLP in London who has an “overweight” rating on the bank’s shares. “That’s a great opportunity for Citigroup to take market share.”

Assets at Citi Holdings fell to $289 billion, a 31 percent dip from $421 billion last year. Pandit created the division in January 2009 to hold and sell the bank’s unwanted businesses. Losses at the unit narrowed 30 percent to $802 million from $1.15 billion a year earlier.

Pandit said that he no longer wants to sell the bank’s retail partner cards business, which deals in store-branded credit cards.

JPMorgan Chase, the second-biggest U.S. bank at midyear, reported net income of $4.26 billion last week including the accounting benefit. Bank of America Corp. (BAC), the biggest U.S. bank, may report a profit of $2.73 billion tomorrow, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

Citigroup posted its seventh profitable quarter in a row after losing a total of $29.3 billion for 2008 and 2009.

To contact the reporters on this story: Donal Griffin in New York at Dgriffin10@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Scheer at dscheer@bloomberg.net.




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Amazon Kindle Fire Sale in Ipad Challenge Drags Margins Toward Zero: Tech

By Danielle Kucera - Oct 17, 2011 8:39 PM GMT+0700

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)’s profit margins, already at a five-year low last quarter, are set to narrow next year as the world’s largest online retailer sells its new tablet computer for half the price of the iPad.

The Kindle Fire will go on sale next month for as little as $199, compared with $499 for the cheapest tablet from Apple Inc. (AAPL) The lower price will help Amazon sell 4.5 million Kindle Fires in the fourth quarter, according to Barclays Plc, topping the 3.3 million units Apple reported for iPad’s debut quarter. It also means Seattle-based Amazon loses about $10 on each tablet, according to IHS Inc.

“It is possible that in 2012 you’ll have a quarter with negative operating margins,” said Ben Schachter, an analyst at Macquarie Capital in New York. “That typically is a disaster scenario. It’s phenomenal to have this revenue growth, but at some point you want to see them make money on it.”

Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos is counting on sales of music, books, movies and merchandise on the tablet to make up for money lost on the device. The Kindle Fire, available Nov. 15, has a 7-inch display, smaller than the iPad’s 9.7-inch screen, Amazon said at a Sept. 28 event in New York. The device will run on Google Inc.’s Android software, have a dual-core processor and offer Wi-Fi connectivity, the company said.

Apple Challenge

Amazon is trying to parlay its leadership in e-commerce to grab a piece of a market that Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Forrester Research Inc. predicts will grow 51 percent a year through 2015. While tablets from companies such as Hewlett- Packard Co. and Research In Motion Ltd. have failed to erode Apple’s dominance in the market, Amazon may be the first to pose a meaningful sales challenge to the iPad, Brian Blair, an analyst at Wedge Partners Corp. in New York, said the day of the Kindle Fire’s unveiling.

Still, selling the device at a loss means Amazon’s margins could fall below zero percent, weighing on the company’s stock price, Macquarie’s Schachter said. Amazon’s 2 percent operating margin in the second quarter was the lowest since the third quarter of 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They may have narrowed to 1.3 percent in the third quarter, which ended in September, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg project.

Investors’ focus on Amazon’s revenue growth has so far diverted attention from the decline in profitability, Schachter said.

Sales, Share Gains

Sales rose 51 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the biggest jump since at least 2002, and analysts predict revenue will rise 43 percent this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Amazon shares fell 1.1 percent to $243.93 at 9:37 a.m. New York time. The stock has gained 37 percent this year before today. It is projected to rise 1 percent over the next 12 months, compared with an anticipated 20 percent increase for Apple, according to Bloomberg data.

Mary Osako, an Amazon spokeswoman, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Amazon spends about $210 to make each Kindle Fire, while the iPad 2 costs Cupertino, California-based Apple about $333, IHS estimates.

Amazon will have to rely on content sales on the Kindle Fire to make the tablet profitable, said Kerry Rice, an analyst at Needham & Co. in San Francisco. He estimates Amazon will sell 2 million to 4 million Kindle Fires this year.

Media, Merchandise

“Amazon is coming at it as, ‘We’re a media company, and we need to put this in the market to drive sales of our media,’” Rice said. “What this device does for Amazon is drive the consumption of media in whatever form possible. They pay once for a movie, and if they sell it a million times, that margin increases.”

A Kindle Fire user would have to spend about $500 on media and merchandise through the device, on purchases of items with 2 percent to 4 percent margins, to make up for Amazon’s loss on the tablet itself, estimates Scot Wingo, chief executive officer of ChannelAdvisor Corp. The Morrisville, North Carolina-based company consults on Web strategies for more than 3,000 businesses, including Amazon third-party sellers.

Wingo expects Amazon to sell about 5 million tablets in the fourth quarter, bringing pressure on margins for the first six months of sales.

Adding Prime Users

Margins may widen in the next few years, a result of Amazon’s switch to a so-called agency model to sell books, which means the company reports 100 percent profit and lower revenue on each purchase, Schachter said. Instead of selling a book for $10 and booking the entire amount as revenue, then paying publishers $7 -- a 30 percent gross margin -- the company only reports the $3 in revenue, he said.

Amazon is offering Kindle Fire buyers a 30-day free trial of Amazon Prime, the company’s $79-a-year membership service that includes streaming video and free two-day shipping, something that may bring in more net income, Wingo said.

While Prime members represent about 8 percent of users, they spend four times as much as other customers, according to ChannelAdvisor. The Kindle Fire could draw 10 million more Prime members, Wingo said.

“You go to Costco or BJ’s, you buy the membership and you want to shop there enough to make up the cost,” he said. “Once you join Prime, it just becomes second nature. You stop going to Target every Wednesday.”

Investors’ Patience

Revenue from digital content on Kindles will surpass hardware sales from the device in 2013, Barclays analyst DiClemente estimates. He projects that the Kindle Fire and content sales through the tablet will account for 5.1 percent of Amazon’s 2012 revenue.

Investors may not continue to overlook the narrower margins if Amazon doesn’t find a way to squeeze more profit from its lower-priced items, Schachter said.

Increases in capital expenditures and marketing must be countered by profit from higher-margin digital offerings such as books, music and movies, he said. Amazon can also leverage its ability to sell consumers items like clothes and cat food, in addition to digital media products, to woo customers from Apple, he said.

“Scale does not necessarily beget margin expansion,” Barclays’s DiClemente said in an interview. “The sentiment from investors is that in the near-term, revenue growth is more important than margins. If and when revenue growth starts to slow down, the narrative on Amazon’s financial story will switch to margins.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Danielle Kucera in San Francisco at dkucera6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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Bankers Balk at EU Push for Bigger Greek Losses

By Aaron Kirchfeld - Oct 17, 2011 9:55 PM GMT+0700

Josef Ackermann, the head of Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) and chief lobbyist for the world’s largest financial firms, has pressed European leaders for months to devise a strategy to stamp out the sovereign debt crisis.

Now that European Union officials are moving toward an agreement that may include bigger losses on Greek debt holdings and the forced recapitalization of lenders, the Deutsche Bank chief executive officer and Washington-based Institute of International Finance he chairs are pushing back. He travels to Brussels this week for talks with policy makers.

Forcing lenders to boost capital would be counterproductive, and getting investors to accept larger losses on Greek holdings difficult, Ackermann said on Oct. 13. Opposition from banks may hamper efforts by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy to present a breakthrough at an Oct. 23 summit of euro leaders in combating the crisis, which has driven Greece toward default, roiled global markets and dented confidence in the survival of the 17- nation currency.

“What’s most depressing about this whole thing is the squabbling between politicians, regulators and banks,” said Christopher Wheeler, a London-based analyst with Mediobanca SpA. “Banks have to take positive action alongside the EU to find a solution, which is a combination of dealing with sovereigns as well as capital concerns.”

Revamped Strategy

Reaching a compromise is in the interest of banks, whose earnings have been battered by financial-market turbulence, Wheeler said. Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank scrapped its profit forecast on Oct. 4 and announced 500 job cuts and further writedowns of Greek bond holdings amid what the company described as a “significant and unabated slowdown in client activity” brought on by the debt crisis.

Germany dampened optimism for a complete fix to the crisis at the Oct. 23 meeting. Merkel has made it clear that “dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won’t be able to be fulfilled,” Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman, said at a briefing in Berlin today.

European financial companies dropped for a third day. The Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index of 46 stocks fell 2.5 percent, led by Dexia SA (DEXB) and Commerzbank AG (CBK), by 4:50 p.m. Central European Time.

Bigger Losses

Europe’s revamped strategy to beat its two-year sovereign debt crisis won the backing of global finance chiefs in Paris this past weekend. In the works is a five-point plan foreseeing a solution for Greece, bolstering of the firepower of the 440 billion-euro ($611 billion) European Financial Stability Facility bailout fund, fresh capital for banks, a new push to boost competitiveness and consideration of European treaty amendments to tighten economic management.

The Greek bond losses now envisaged in the plan may be accompanied by a pledge to rule out debt restructurings in other countries that received bailouts, such as Portugal, to persuade investors that Europe has mastered the crisis, people familiar with the discussion said on Oct. 14.

Options include altering a July accord struck with investors and spearheaded by Ackermann for a 21 percent net- present-value reduction in Greek debt holdings. One variant would take that loss up to 50 percent, the people said.

‘Political Reality’

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday the reduction of Greece’s debt by means of private-investor participation must be bigger than agreed to in July by euro- region leaders to achieve a “sustainable solution” for the country. There will be negotiations with banks about a debt cut for Greece, Schaeuble said on ARD public television, according to a transcript of the interview.

Policy makers’ priority needs to be convincing investors that Italy, the third-largest issuer of debt after the U.S. and Japan, is a risk-free investment, said Holger Schmieding, a London-based chief economist for Berenberg Bank. Still, increasing private contributions to a Greek rescue would help mollify German voters and injecting capital into banks may ease investors’ concerns about the stability of the financial system, he said.

“Being a realist, I don’t see the chance of avoiding larger private-sector involvement, especially given the German political reality,” said Schmieding. “We also probably need some type of recap after raising market expectations over the last few weeks. But the ultimate thing is impressing on the market that Italy is safe.”

No ‘Compelling Case’

The Institute of International Finance on Oct. 10 rejected pressure for banks to accept larger losses on their holdings of Greek government debt. There are no plans to change the deal, Hung Tran, deputy managing director of the IIF, said in a telephone interview.

“The potential risk and potential costs of revisiting the deal far outweigh any potential benefits,” Tran said. “July 21 represented a balanced approach with significant concessions from private investors. We should remind the public sector that we need to preserve the voluntary nature of the Private Sector Agreement, and therefore honor and implement the deal.”

Charles Dallara, managing director of the IIF, which represents more than 450 financial institutions globally, told the Financial Times on Oct. 14 that he didn’t see a “compelling case” to reopen negotiations.

One risk to changing the agreement is that forcing bigger writedowns could be viewed as a default, triggering insurance bought against such an event, known as credit default swaps, and risking contagion to larger countries such as Italy and Spain, according to analysts.

Rescue Fund

Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, known as the GIIPS, have about 2.9 trillion euros of government bonds outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Italy accounts for more than half, or 1.59 trillion euros, the data show.

About 413 billion euros of GIIPS debt is held by 38 of Europe’s largest lenders, according to an analysis of European stress-test results by Alberto Gallo, a strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) in London. Those holdings equal almost 40 percent of the banks’ 1.1 trillion euros of equity, according to Gallo.

To combat concern about contagion, officials are considering ways of multiplying the strength of Europe’s temporary rescue fund. The likeliest option is using it to partly insure new bonds issued by distressed governments. EFSF guarantees of new bonds might range from 20 percent to 30 percent, a person familiar with those deliberations said.

More Capital

There are risks to this plan, Joachim Fels and Sung Woen Kang, analysts at Morgan Stanley, said yesterday in a research note.

“Guaranteeing first losses may well turn out less appealing to investors than many hope and a larger private sector involvement could spark another wave of contagion,” the analysts wrote. “Banks would probably choose to shed assets and de-lever rather than raise capital in the market if they are given a longish grace period before having to accept recapitalization through their sovereign and the EFSF.”

All lenders judged by the region’s top banking regulator to be systemically important should be required to hold “temporarily higher” amounts of capital, European Commission President Jose Barroso said on Oct. 12. The European Banking Authority discussed making the banks hold core capital equal to at least 9 percent of their assets, up from a 5 percent core Tier 1 capital requirement imposed in the stress tests carried out by the regulator earlier this year, according to a person familiar with the proposals.

‘Held Hostage’

Those new criteria would lead to a 220 billion-euro capital shortfall at 66 of the participating banks, with the biggest gaps at Edinburgh-based RBS, Deutsche Bank and Paris-based BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, according to a note published by Credit Suisse Group AG analysts on Oct. 13.

The European Banking Federation, in a statement on Oct. 13 titled “High time for coordinated European solution on sovereign debt,” said recapitalization is not “central to the solution” and the region’s lenders have continued to place trust in sovereign debt and made credit available to national governments throughout the crisis.

“European banks feel they are being held hostage by the sovereign debt crisis,” said Guido Ravoet, secretary general of Brussels-based EBF, which represents more than 5,000 banks. The region’s lenders have already “substantially increased” their capital and among about 90 lenders that took part in July’s stress tests, the average core tier 1 capital ratio, a measure of financial strength, was 8.9 percent at the end of 2010, the EBF said.

Ackermann, Merkel

Bankers including Ackermann have also said that tougher regulation, higher capital requirements and bigger sovereign debt writedowns may force them to restrict lending, which could hurt economic growth.

Deutsche Bank, which navigated the financial crisis in 2008 without a government capital injection, will “do everything” not to take money from the state as part of assistance efforts for European banks, Ackermann said in a speech last week, when he criticized the EU’s plans.

His remarks created a stir in Germany. Newsmagazine Spiegel carried the headline “Everyone against Ackermann,” while the country’s biggest tabloid, Bild-Zeitung, wrote: “New Ice Age between Merkel and Ackermann.”

Even if Deutsche Bank didn’t need direct state support in the last financial crisis, “it profited from the fact that the government staved off a collapse of the financial market,” Social Democrat Carsten Schneider told Der Spiegel. “A little bit of humility wouldn’t hurt.”




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U.S. Stocks Fall as Germany Damps Optimism, Wells Fargo Slumps

By Rita Nazareth - Oct 17, 2011 9:49 PM GMT+0700

U.S. stocks fell, after the biggest weekly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 2009, as Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) slumped and a German government spokesman damped optimism of a quick fix to Europe’s debt crisis.

Gauges of financial and raw material companies had the biggest declines in the S&P 500 among 10 groups, falling at least 2.5 percent. Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. home lender, lost 6.2 percent as third-quarter revenue dropped and margins narrowed. Alcoa Inc. (AA) and 3M Co. (MMM) slumped more than 2.8 percent to pace losses among companies most-tied to the economy. Gannett Co. dropped 8.6 percent as print-advertising revenue slid.

The S&P 500 slipped 1.2 percent to 1,209.40 at 10:48 a.m. New York time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 145.92 points, or 1.3 percent, to 11,498.57 today.

“It’s optimism punctuated by reality,” Hayes Miller, the Boston-based head of asset allocation in North America at Baring Asset Management Inc., which oversees $51.6 billion. “It’s not in the Germans’ interest to offer up a bailout package on the terms that the market would like. The market wants the resolution, but it shouldn’t be forthcoming.”

The S&P 500 rose 6 percent last week amid optimism over corporate earnings and steps by European leaders to support the region’s banks. It has surged 11 percent from Oct. 3, its lowest close in more than a year, through Oct. 14. The rebound brought the gauge close to the top of a price range between 1,074.77 and 1,230.71, where it’s traded for more than two months.

No Complete Fix

Germany said European Union leaders won’t provide the complete fix to the euro-area debt crisis that global policy makers are pushing for at an Oct. 23 summit. Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers concluded weekend talks in Paris endorsing parts of an emerging plan to avoid a Greek default, bolster banks and curb contagion.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear that “dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won’t be able to be fulfilled,” Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman, said at a briefing in Berlin today. The search for an end to the crisis “surely extends well into next year.”

U.S. equity futures fell after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rose to minus 8.5 from minus 8.8 in September. Economists projected an improvement to minus 4, based on the median of 53 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Separate figures from the Federal Reserve showed that industrial production in the U.S. advanced in September on growing demand for automobiles and computers.

‘A Bit Optimistic’

“There’s not going to be a quick fix to the problems in Europe,” Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at San Francisco-based Wells Fargo Funds Management, which oversees $215 billion, said in a telephone interview. “People were getting a bit optimistic. This economic recovery will be uneven in terms of geography and the sectors that are really benefiting from the slow growth.”

The Morgan Stanley (MS) Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to the economy lost 2.4 percent. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, a proxy for the economy, retreated 2.1 percent. The KBW Bank Index decreased 2.8 percent. Alcoa slumped 4 percent to $9.85. 3M fell 2.8 percent to $76.65.

Wells Fargo dropped 6.2 percent to $25.02. Revenue fell to $19.6 billion from $20.4 billion in the second quarter, missing the $20.2 billion estimate of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Citigroup Rallies

Citigroup Inc. (C) rallied 0.6 percent to $28.58. The third- biggest U.S. bank said profit rose 74 percent, beating analysts’ estimates on a $1.9 billion accounting gain and a reduction in losses tied to soured loans.

Gannett slid 8.6 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $10. The owner of 82 newspapers and 23 television stations reported third-quarter profit decreased 1.6 percent as publishing revenue, including advertising and circulation, declined 5.3 percent.

El Paso Corp. (EP) surged 24 percent to $24.26. The cash and stock offer is valued at $26.87 per El Paso share, or 37 percent more than the Oct. 14 closing price, Houston-based Kinder Morgan said in a statement yesterday. The combined company would have 67,000 miles (107,000 kilometers) of gas lines and eclipse Enterprise Products Partners LP as the biggest U.S. pipeline operator.

Utility, telephone and consumer staples providers, which are least-tied to the economy, outperformed the S&P 500 today.

Stock market bulls and bears agree on at least one thing. The highest valuations for makers of household goods since 2008 signal the best is over after the industry rose more than any other group this year.

Bears vs Bulls

Bears say the easy money has been made in so-called defensive shares should the world slip into a recession. Bulls favor companies with faster earnings growth and cheaper valuations. The last time household-goods producers were this expensive versus the MSCI World (MXWO), stocks were about to begin an advance in which bank, mining and industrial stocks jumped more than 137 percent, while consumer staples rose 76 percent.

“You’ve got too much money that has been bet that we’re going into a recession,” said Jeffrey Saut, who helps oversee $300 billion as chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida. “If we don’t go into a recession, you’ll get a whole rotation out of these highly valued defensive stocks into more aggressive stocks.”

Bullish bets in the Traxis Partners LP hedge fund, also known as its net long position, rose to 65 percent, according to founder Barton Biggs.

“I’m inclined to stay where I am, which is moderately, cowardly bullish,” Biggs said in an interview with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” program. “We’re going to creep higher from here for a while.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net




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Germany Shoots Down ‘Dreams’ of Swift Crisis Fix

By Tony Czuczka and Rainer Buergin - Oct 17, 2011 9:53 PM GMT+0700

Germany said European Union leaders won’t provide the complete fix to the euro-area debt crisis that global policy makers are pushing for at an Oct. 23 summit.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear that “dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won’t be able to be fulfilled,” Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman, said at a briefing in Berlin today. The search for an end to the crisis “surely extends well into next year.”

Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers concluded weekend talks in Paris endorsing parts of Europe’s emerging plan to avoid a Greek default, bolster banks and curb contagion. Providing a week to act, they set the Oct. 23 meeting of European leaders in Brussels as the deadline.

On the summit agenda is how any recapitalization of Europe’s banks “might be carried out in a coordinated way” and how to make the European Financial Stability Facility, the EU’s rescue fund for indebted states, as effective as possible, Seibert said. The leaders will also discuss aid for Greece and ways to tighten economic and financial policy, he said.

The euro retreated as much as 1 percent to $1.3739 from a one-month high against the dollar after Seibert’s comments. The currency last week had its biggest gain in more than two years on speculation that policy makers were moving closer to stemming the crisis. German 10-year bonds rallied and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index reversed an advance of as much as 1.5 percent and was down 1.4 percent at 4.45 p.m. in Frankfurt.

‘Disappointment Trade’

Seibert’s statement “moved the disappointment trade to this morning,” Carl Weinberg, founder and chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said today on Bloomberg Television. “We’re looking at a really big disapopintment if we don’t get a funded, operational and agile response to the bank recapitalization problem as soon as possible.”

Two years to the week since Greece triggered the turmoil by revising its budget math, policy makers face increasing calls from the U.S. and other global partners to stamp out the turmoil that has pushed the Greek government to the edge of default and the European economy close to recession.

The outlook for German economic growth has worsened as companies cut their business expectations and foreign orders decline, the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, said in its monthly report today.

Greek Strikes

In Greece, Finance Ministry workers began a 10-day strike, complicating the government’s efforts to collect taxes. Renewed walkouts have hit Europe’s most-indebted country as Greek lawmakers face another vote on fiscal measures as soon as this week, a showdown that Prime Minister George Papandreou needs to win to ease the way for more foreign financing.

Obstacles to an EU accord include resistance by bankers to a deeper restructuring of Greek debt and discord among Europe’s capitals over how to multiply the firepower of their bailout fund and recapitalize financial institutions. At stake is confidence in the 17-nation currency union that Merkel says she wants to preserve.

As EU officials move toward an agreement that may include bigger losses on Greek debt holdings and the forced recapitalization of lenders, bankers are pushing back. Options include altering a July accord struck with investors for a 21 percent net-present-value reduction in Greek debt holdings.

‘Sustainable Solution’

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday the reduction of Greece’s debt by means of private-investor participation must be bigger than agreed to in July by euro- region leaders to achieve a “sustainable solution” for the country. There will be negotiations with banks about a debt cut for Greece, Schaeuble said on ARD public television, according to a transcript of the interview.

While tensions “may die down if markets are suitably impressed” with the summit outcome, Merkel is seeking to keep pressure on euro-area countries to lock in budget discipline, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Joh. Berenberg Gossler & Co. in London, said in a phone interview.

“For her, the longer-term reform is at least equally important” because it increases the chances “that the German taxpayer will get back all the money” put on the line in bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, he said.

Forcing lenders to boost capital would be counterproductive, and getting investors to accept larger losses Greek holdings difficult, Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said on Oct. 13. Ackermann, who chairs the Washington-based Institute of International Finance and spearheaded the July accord, travels to Brussels this week for talks with policy makers.

Writedowns

Greek bond losses of as much as 50 percent envisaged in Europe’s emerging plan may be accompanied by a pledge to rule out debt restructurings in other countries that received bailouts, such as Portugal, to persuade investors that Europe has mastered the crisis, people familiar with the discussion said on Oct. 14.

In the works for the summit is a five-point plan foreseeing a solution for Greece, bolstering of the firepower of the 440 billion-euro ($611 billion) EFSF, fresh capital for banks, a new push to boost competitiveness and consideration of European treaty changes to tighten economic management.

“The problems in the eurozone are chronic” and “won’t go away,” said Nouriel Roubini, chairman and co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC.Roubini. He said EFSF needs to be more than four times its current size to be effective.

Even so, leaders won’t present a “definitive solution” for the euro region’s debt crisis at the summit in Brussels, Reuters cited Schaeuble as saying at a tax advisers’ conference in Dusseldorf today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net; Rainer Buergin in Berlin at rbuergin1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net




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Kindle Challenge to IPad Narrows Amazon Margins

By Danielle Kucera - Oct 17, 2011 11:01 AM GMT+0700

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)’s profit margins, already at a five-year low last quarter, are set to narrow next year as the world’s largest online retailer sells its new tablet computer for half the price of the iPad.

The Kindle Fire will go on sale next month for as little as $199, compared with $499 for the cheapest tablet from Apple Inc. (AAPL) The lower price will help Amazon sell 4.5 million Kindle Fires in the fourth quarter, according to Barclays Plc, topping the 3.3 million units Apple reported for iPad’s debut quarter. It also means Seattle-based Amazon loses about $10 on each tablet, according to IHS Inc.

“It is possible that in 2012 you’ll have a quarter with negative operating margins,” said Ben Schachter, an analyst at Macquarie Capital in New York. “That typically is a disaster scenario. It’s phenomenal to have this revenue growth, but at some point you want to see them make money on it.”

Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos is counting on sales of music, books, movies and merchandise on the tablet to make up for money lost on the device. The Kindle Fire, available Nov. 15, has a 7-inch display, smaller than the iPad’s 9.7-inch screen, Amazon said at a Sept. 28 event in New York. The device will run on Google Inc.’s Android software, have a dual-core processor and offer Wi-Fi connectivity, the company said.

Apple Challenge

Amazon is trying to parlay its leadership in e-commerce to grab a piece of a market that Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Forrester Research Inc. predicts will grow 51 percent a year through 2015. While tablets from companies such as Hewlett- Packard Co. and Research In Motion Ltd. have failed to erode Apple’s dominance in the market, Amazon may be the first to pose a meaningful sales challenge to the iPad, Brian Blair, an analyst at Wedge Partners Corp. in New York, said the day of the Kindle Fire’s unveiling.

Still, selling the device at a loss means Amazon’s margins could fall below zero percent, weighing on the company’s stock price, Macquarie’s Schachter said. Amazon’s 2 percent operating margin in the second quarter was the lowest since the third quarter of 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They may have narrowed to 1.3 percent in the third quarter, which ended in September, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg project.

Investors’ focus on Amazon’s revenue growth has so far diverted attention from the decline in profitability, Schachter said.

Sales, Share Gains

Sales rose 51 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the biggest jump since at least 2002, and analysts predict revenue will rise 43 percent this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Amazon shares rose 4.5 percent to close at $246.71 on Oct. 14. The stock has gained 37 percent this year. It is projected to rise 1 percent over the next 12 months, compared with an anticipated 20 percent increase for Apple, according to Bloomberg data.

Mary Osako, an Amazon spokeswoman, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Amazon spends about $210 to make each Kindle Fire, while the iPad 2 costs Cupertino, California-based Apple about $333, IHS estimates.

Amazon will have to rely on content sales on the Kindle Fire to make the tablet profitable, said Kerry Rice, an analyst at Needham & Co. in San Francisco. He estimates Amazon will sell 2 million to 4 million Kindle Fires this year.

Media, Merchandise

“Amazon is coming at it as, ‘We’re a media company, and we need to put this in the market to drive sales of our media,’” Rice said. “What this device does for Amazon is drive the consumption of media in whatever form possible. They pay once for a movie, and if they sell it a million times, that margin increases.”

A Kindle Fire user would have to spend about $500 on media and merchandise through the device, on purchases of items with 2 percent to 4 percent margins, to make up for Amazon’s loss on the tablet itself, estimates Scot Wingo, chief executive officer of ChannelAdvisor Corp. The Morrisville, North Carolina-based company consults on Web strategies for more than 3,000 businesses, including Amazon third-party sellers.

Wingo expects Amazon to sell about 5 million tablets in the fourth quarter, bringing pressure on margins for the first six months of sales.

Adding Prime Users

Margins may widen in the next few years, a result of Amazon’s switch to a so-called agency model to sell books, which means the company reports 100 percent profit and lower revenue on each purchase, Schachter said. Instead of selling a book for $10 and booking the entire amount as revenue, then paying publishers $7 -- a 30 percent gross margin -- the company only reports the $3 in revenue, he said.

Amazon is offering Kindle Fire buyers a 30-day free trial of Amazon Prime, the company’s $79-a-year membership service that includes streaming video and free two-day shipping, something that may bring in more net income, Wingo said.

While Prime members represent about 8 percent of users, they spend four times as much as other customers, according to ChannelAdvisor. The Kindle Fire could draw 10 million more Prime members, Wingo said.

“You go to Costco or BJ’s, you buy the membership and you want to shop there enough to make up the cost,” he said. “Once you join Prime, it just becomes second nature. You stop going to Target every Wednesday.”

Investors’ Patience

Revenue from digital content on Kindles will surpass hardware sales from the device in 2013, Barclays analyst DiClemente estimates. He projects that the Kindle Fire and content sales through the tablet will account for 5.1 percent of Amazon’s 2012 revenue.

Investors may not continue to overlook the narrower margins if Amazon doesn’t find a way to squeeze more profit from its lower-priced items, Schachter said.

Increases in capital expenditures and marketing must be countered by profit from higher-margin digital offerings such as books, music and movies, he said. Amazon can also leverage its ability to sell consumers items like clothes and cat food, in addition to digital media products, to woo customers from Apple, he said.

“Scale does not necessarily beget margin expansion,” Barclays’s DiClemente said in an interview. “The sentiment from investors is that in the near-term, revenue growth is more important than margins. If and when revenue growth starts to slow down, the narrative on Amazon’s financial story will switch to margins.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Danielle Kucera in San Francisco at dkucera6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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Philips to Cut 4,500 Jobs as Profit Sinks to Two-Year Low

By Maaike Noordhuis - Oct 17, 2011 5:55 PM GMT+0700

Royal Philips Electronics NV, the world’s biggest maker of light bulbs, plans to cut 4,500 jobs to revive earnings after quarterly profit fell to the lowest in almost two years and the company predicted no near-term rebound.

The job cuts are part of a plan to save 800 million euros ($1.1 billion), Amsterdam-based Philips said in a statement today. Earnings before interest, taxes and amortization dropped to 368 million euros ($510 million) in the third quarter, from 647 million euros a year earlier. That beat the 341 million-euro average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Revenue fell 1.3 percent to 5.39 billion euros, in line with estimates.

“Taking into account that cost-cutting measures will kick in in the fourth quarter and next year, maybe Philips has hit the bottom this quarter,” said Jos Versteeg, an analyst at Theodoor Gilissen Bankiers. Versteeg, who advises that investors buy the stock, said earnings were better than he had expected.

Chief Executive Officer Frans van Houten said the biggest round of job cuts since 2009 are an “inevitable step” to revive Philips and respond to economic challenges. Van Houten spent the quarter traveling to Philips global sites, gathering together workers in meetings to push his bid to accelerate an efficiency drive. The manufacturer aims to pull out of television production by the end of the year, a move it said today is taking longer than anticipated.

Stock Rebound

Philips rose as much as 4.6 percent to 15.49 euros in Amsterdam and was up 1.1 percent as of 12:54 p.m. Before today, the stock had declined 35 percent this year, reducing the market value of the company to 14.9 billion euros. German rival Siemens AG (SIE), which also makes light bulbs and medical equipment, has dropped about 18 percent in 2011.

Philips had “better than expected results, albeit relative to low expectations,” Peter Olofsen, an analyst at Kepler Capital Markets, said in a note to clients. The stock’s price reflects that investors are “discounting overly cautious future margins.”

Philips employed about 120,500 people at the end of the third quarter, excluding the discontinued television operations. Some 1,400 jobs will be eliminated in the Netherlands, Philips said. The focus on administration and services jobs in making cuts is the reason why the Netherlands is bearing the brunt of the reductions, Van Houten said.

Cost cuts will take place at the headquarters, in infrastructure, information technology and real estate, and will have “quite a big impact in 2012 and 2013,” Van Houten said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Cost of Changes

Restructuring costs will amount to 400 million euros through 2014, the company said, with 200 million euros of the total to be incurred in 2012.

Net income dropped to 74 million euros in the quarter from 524 million euros a year earlier, Philips said.

Philips is a remnant of a consumer-electronics industry once led by Europe and now dominated by Asia. Munich-based Siemens exited production of phones and bundled its appliances operation into a joint venture. The company is also working on an initial public offering of its Osram lighting subsidiary.

The planned cuts should help improve efficiency at a time when Philips is battling slowing economic growth and competition from lower-cost manufacturers in Asia. Some 60 percent of the savings are tied to the job cuts, while the remainder will come from “other structural costs,” Philips said.

Margin Improvement

Investors may increasingly favor the stock “in the course of next year as margins start to improve,” Kepler’s Olofsen said.

Van Houten is seeking to drive innovation and new products that can be moved quickly to market and made a commercial success. He is stepping up market penetration and innovation by making additional investments of 200 million euros a year.

The executive, who took over in April, has set a target of increasing earnings before interest, taxes and amortization to 10 percent to 12 percent of revenue by 2013, on sales growth of 4 percent to 6 percent. He reiterated those goals today.

In lighting, where Philips is global market leader, the goal is to lift the margin to 8 to 10 percent. In the third quarter, the measure stood at 5.8 percent, compared with 11.3 percent a year earlier. That marked the third consecutive quarterly drop for the division.

In health care, Philips wants to boost margins to 15 percent to 17 percent by 2013, while in consumer lifestyle subsidiary, it aims for an Ebita margin of 8 to 10 percent. Both divisions were short of those goals in the third quarter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Maaike Noordhuis in Amsterdam at mnoordhuis@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Benedikt Kammel at bkammel@bloomberg.net




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U.S. Stock Futures, Euro Fall as Germany Damps Crisis Optimism

By Rob Verdonck - Oct 17, 2011 7:53 PM GMT+0700

U.S. equity futures fell, while stocks in Europe and oil trimmed earlier gains and the euro weakened, as a German government spokesman damped expectations for a fast resolution to the sovereign-debt crisis and a report showed New York-area manufacturing shrank more than forecast.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures dropped 0.2 percent at 8:50 a.m. in New York after earlier climbing as much as 0.9 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up less than 0.1 percent, erasing most of a 1.5 percent gain. The euro weakened 0.7 percent against the dollar. The yield on 10-year Spanish bonds advanced for a sixth day, adding six basis points to 5.31 percent. Oil was up 0.2 percent at $87 a barrel in New York, reversing most of an earlier 1.6 percent advance.

Equities and the euro headed lower as Steffen Seibert, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief spokesman, said European Union leaders won’t provide the quick ending to the debt crisis that global policy makers are pushing for at an Oct. 23 summit. Optimism that the region was developing a plan to shield banks from losses on sovereign debt helped send global stocks to the biggest weekly gain since July 2009 last week and gave the euro its best rally versus the dollar since March 2009.

“This may prove to be a somewhat monumental instance of buy the rumor and sell the fact,” said Richard McGuire, a senior fixed-income strategist at Rabobank International in London. “The continued promise of a sweeping solution is underpinning a cautious ‘risk-on’ tone.”

U.S. futures signaled the S&P 500 may fall after last week’s 6 percent jump, also the steepest increase since July 2009. Wells Fargo & Co. slipped 3.6 percent after per-share profit met estimates.

Earnings Season

Citigroup Inc. climbed 2 percent in early trading after reporting profit that rose 74 percent, beating analysts’ estimates following a $1.9 billion accounting gain that reduced the impact of falling trading and investment-banking revenue.

El Paso Corp. (EP) surged 28 percent as Kinder Morgan Inc. agreed to buy the company for $21.1 billion in a deal that would create the largest U.S. natural-gas pipeline network.

International Business Machines Corp. will report earnings after the close of trading.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rose to minus 8.5 from minus 8.8 in September. Economists projected an improvement to minus 4, based on the median of 53 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings less than zero signal companies in the so-called Empire State Index, which covers New York, northern New Jersey, and southern Connecticut, are cutting back.

A Federal Reserve report due at 9:15 a.m. New York time will show that industrial production expanded for a fifth straight month in September, according to the median estimate in a survey of economists.

European Stocks

About three stocks declined for every two that gained in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which retreated after gaining for three straight weeks. Automobile companies led losses, with Daimler AG and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG down more than 1.4 percent. BP Plc appreciated 4.6 percent after saying Anadarko Petroleum Corp. will pay $4 billion to settle all claims over last year’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

The yield on the Portuguese 10-year security rose 15 basis points to 11.80 percent, with seven days of losses in the bond driving the level up from 11.21 percent. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond was little changed at 3.24 percent. The euro weakened to $1.3779, and was lower against 13 of its 16 most-traded peers.

Emerging Markets

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased 1.2 percent, on course for its ninth straight gain, the longest winning streak in 16 months. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong climbed 2.8 percent and the Kospi Index (KOSPI) jumped 1.6 percent in Seoul. Korea’s won climbed 1.4 percent against the dollar.

South Korean Finance Minister Bahk Jae Wan said at the Paris meeting the Asian nation’s economy is performing better than expected, while data tomorrow may show China’s gross domestic product increased 9.3 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the ninth consecutive quarter of expansion above 9 percent.

The pound slipped 0.3 percent to $1.5768 as Ernst & Young LLP’s ITEM Club cut its U.K. growth forecast and said the Bank of England should lower its key interest rate as its new stimulus earlier this month is unlikely to be enough to revive economic growth.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rob Verdonck in London at rverdonck@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Gilbert at magilbert@bloomberg.net





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European Stocks Fluctuate as Germany Damps Euro-Area Debt Crisis Optimism

By Adria Cimino - Oct 17, 2011 7:40 PM GMT+0700

European stocks fluctuated as a German government spokesman said that euro-area leaders will not provide a quick ending to the debt crisis at their next meeting. Asian stocks rose, while U.S. futures were little changed.

National Bank of Greece SA (ETE), the country’s biggest lender, led bank shares lower. G4S Plc slumped 21 percent after agreeing to acquire ISS Holdings A/S. BP Plc (BP/) surged 4.3 percent after saying that Anadarko Petroleum Corp. will pay $4 billion to settle all claims for last year’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Royal Philips Electronics NV gained 1.6 percent after announcing a plan to cut costs.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.2 percent to 238.88 at 1:37 p.m. in London, paring an earlier gain of as much as 1.5 percent after Germany’s government said that the European Union’s Oct. 23 summit will not provide a complete fix to the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis. The benchmark measure swung between gains and losses at least eight times today.

“Markets are off their earlier highs on the back of wary comments from Germany suggesting that the upcoming EU summit won’t present a final solution for euro-zone debt crisis,” said Stephane Ekolo, chief European strategist at Market Securities in London. “These comments remind investors how difficult it is to find a solution regarding the euro-zone woes. The problems are still out there and the solution isn’t really coming.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in December slipped 0.1 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 1.9 percent.

Germany Damps Optimism

Stocks pared earlier gains after Steffen Seibert, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief spokesman, told reporters in Berlin that European leaders won’t fulfill “dreams” of a quick end to the debt crisis at the Oct. 23 summit.

The Stoxx 600 advanced 2.8 percent last week. The gauge has still retreated 18 percent from this year’s high on Feb. 17 as concern mounted that Greece will default, pushing borrowing costs higher for other indebted euro-area countries. The gauge traded at 9 times its companies’ estimated earnings on Sept. 22, the cheapest since March 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors concluded weekend talks in Paris endorsing parts of the emerging plan to avoid a Greek default, bolster banks and curb contagion.

Backstop for Banks

The euro area’s plan, which has yet to be made public, includes writing down Greek bonds by as much as 50 percent, establishing a backstop for banks and magnifying the strength of the 440 billion-euro ($606 billion) temporary rescue fund known as the European Financial Stability Facility, people familiar with the matter said last week.

Hurdles to overcome for the accord include resistance from bankers to a deeper restructuring of Greek debt as well as disagreements between Europe’s capitals over just how to multiply the firepower of their bailout fund and recapitalize financial institutions.

Greece’s ASE Index plunged 3.4 percent for the biggest decline among national indexes. National Bank of Greece sank 7.1 percent to 1.69 euros. Piraeus Bank SA (TPEIR) retreated 9.8 percent to 25.8 euro cents. EFG Eurobank Ergasias tumbled 8.6 percent to 66.7 euro cents.

Industrial Production

A Federal Reserve report due at 9:15 a.m. New York time will show that industrial production, or output from factories, mines and utilities, expanded for a fifth straight month in September, according to the median estimate in a survey of economists.

A separate report showed that manufacturing in the New York area contracted in October more than economists had forecast. The Empire State Index covering New York, northern New Jersey, and southern Connecticut gave a reading of minus 8.5, a larger drop than the average estimate of minus 4 in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

G4S Plc (GFS) slumped 21 percent to 223.5 pence for the largest drop on the Stoxx 600. The world’s largest security provider agreed to acquire ISS Holdings A/S for about 5.2 billion pounds ($8.2 billion), of which 3.7 billion pounds is assumed debt, to add cleaning and other facilities-management services and accelerate expansion in emerging markets.

BP Plc soared 4.3 percent to 434.3 pence. BP, Europe’s second-largest oil company, said Anadarko will pay to settle all claims over the world’s largest accidental oil spill.

Anadarko, which had a 25 percent stake in the Gulf of Mexico well, will no longer pursue allegations of gross negligence against BP, the London-based company said. BP’s shares made the biggest contribution to the Stoxx 600’s advance.

Philips, Aviva

Philips rose 1.6 percent to 15.04 euros after the world’s biggest maker of light bulbs said it plans to cut 4,500 jobs globally, including 1,400 in the Netherlands, as part of a plan to lower costs by 800 million euros. The company reported third- quarter net income of 74 million euros, exceeding the average analyst estimate of 48.7 million euros.

Aviva Plc (AV/), the U.K.’s second-biggest insurer by market value, climbed 1.5 percent to 344 pence after the stock was raised to “buy” from “neutral” at UBS AG.

SGL Carbon SE (SGL) soared 10 percent to 41.83 euros, its highest price since August 2008. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) plans to buy a stake in the German maker of carbon and graphite materials, Spiegel said, citing an unidentified manager at the automaker.

Saint-Gobain Climbs

Cie. de Saint-Gobain advanced 2.6 percent to 34.43 euros. The stock was upgraded to “outperform” from “market perform” at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., which said the company’s presence in France and other western-European markets and flat or receding energy costs will help it “progress” earnings.

Air France-KLM (AF) Group, Europe’s second-largest airline by sales, surged 4.1 percent to 5.75 euros. The company’s board will meet today to vote on ousting Chief Executive Officer Pierre-Henri Gourgeon and replacing him with Alexandre de Juniac, a former chief of staff to Christine Lagarde, according to two people with knowledge of the proposals.

L’Oreal SA (OR), the world’s biggest cosmetics company, advanced 1.7 percent to 79.86 euros. A French judged ruled that L’Oreal heiress and France’s third-richest person, Liliane Bettencourt, was mentally unfit to manage her own affairs. The court appointed Bettencourt’s daughter to manage her assets.

Tenaris SA (TEN) increased 2.6 percent to 10.87 euros. The world’s largest maker of seamless steel pipes was raised to “outperform” from “neutral” at Mediobanca SpA.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net.




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