Economic Calendar

Monday, March 2, 2009

Fears are Back Again

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Crown Forex | Mar 02 09 15:04 GMT |

Fears and worries from the current economic recession increased causing the advance of yen and dollar as safe haven currencies. Data on Friday showed that GDP in the U.S. contracted 6.2% during the fourth quarter. Also, AIG will receive a bailout from the FED which shows that the financial crisis in the world's largest economy will deepen.

The euro-dollar pair is consolidating after falling to one-week low against the green currency after EU leaders refused to provide an aid package for Eastern Europe which ignited economic woes the financial crisis will be more severe. The pair is an oversold area according to Stochastic Oscillator on the 4-hours charts and it is showing a slight tendency to rise as a correction. Currently, the euro is trading at 1.2601 recording a high of 1.2620 and low of 1.2544 along with support 1.2555 and resistance 1.2622.

Relative to the pound-dollar, it is declining on the daily and 4-hours charts according to the Stochastic Oscillator 4-hour charts. The British economy is still suffering amid the undergoing global recession. PMI Manufacturing retreated to -34.7 reflecting the deteriorating status of the economy. So far, the pound is trading at 1.4192 reaching a high of 1.4288 and a low of 1.4174 with support 1.4123 and resistance 1.4246.

The pair is showing decline according to the 4-hours and daily charts as fears increased the demand on the Japanese currency as a safe haven. Now, the yen is traded at 97.13 hitting a high of 97.91 and a low of 96.91 along with support 96.82 and resistance 97.81.

Crown Forex

disclaimer:The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk.






Read more...

This Week's Crucial Events May Determine Dollar's Direction!

Today sees the first week of a new month starting with the stock market dropping in the Asian session and continuing to fall through the European, amid renewed worries about the global economic outlook. The dollar is clearly getting stronger and it seems for now that investors are favoring the US currency as the safest asset. This week has crucial economic events which may determine the dollar's direction and the futures and equities outlook.

The EUR/USD finally broke 1.26 in early trading, printing a new multi-week low of 1.2540. The latter level is holding as a support; however a clear break of 1.2530 may open the gates for 1.2470. Traders may not want to commit themselves for important breakouts before the important economic events, however in such a fragile environment, we may see stops getting hit and further downside arising. On the upside, as long as 1.2680 holds, it is clear that the pair will continue to trade lower.

Today the economic calendar has important economic data, with the UK's Manufacturing PMI being lower than expected and also Mortgage approvals, which also dropped. The economic conditions continue to deteriorate fast in the UK, which puts further pressure on an already weak pound. Analysts speculate the BOE will cut rates even more this week - possibly even to 0.50%. Also today we have ISM Manufacturing out of US, which is expected to come out lower, emphasizing how bad the economy is in almost all sectors. The dollar however, continues to benefit with or without bad data, as investors have decided that they can put their faith in the greenback as it seems to be the last currency to fail!

This week seems to have it all; the BOE and ECB rate decisions, which will be crucial for the euro and pound's direction and also Bernanke's testimony in front of the Senate which traders will monitor for any hints as to how the bank is dealing with the crisis. Let's not forget the most important event of the week either, the non-farm payroll. According to the latest estimates, the number may reach new highs – or should that be 'lows' - of minus 630.000. The employment sector is suffering so much; it bears comparison to the US Great Depression during the 30s.

Let's see how New York opens and how we'll find the prices and whether the dollar reaches new highs against all major counterparts. So far, the pound has started out on a weak note and is likely to continue until the BOE's rate decision. Let's watch GBP/USD and how it behaves towards 1.40, which is a very good psychological support for now. A clear break of that level won't be good for the pound's short term outlook and further downside may prevail towards 1.37 if the latter level gives way…

Lena Manousarides
Independent Market Analyst and Professional Trader

Email: manousarides@yahoo.comThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

Lena Manousarides is a professional Trader and an independent Market Analyst, who pioneers in Fx trading in Athens, Greece. After several years of professional trading in the Forex Market, Lena formerly worked with FXGreece as a Market Analyst, writing articles on a daily basis, using fundamental and technical analysis. She also writes for several major financial newspapers in Greece and is in the process of becoming professional Commodity Trading Advisor.






Read more...

FX Thoughts for the Day

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services | Mar 02 09 12:08 GMT |

USD-CHF @ 1.1752/55...Moving up slowly within channel

R: 1.1789 / 1.1855 / 1.1890
S: 1.1723 / 1.1690 / 1.1665

Dollar-Swiss continues to creep up. It may creep up further towards 1.1850-55 over today-tomorrow, before running into selling near there.

Overall, Dollar-Swiss appears to be ranged between 1.1500-1850 for the next few days. The last few days has seen it creep up from a low of 1.1465 on 20-Feb, going up one day, coming down the next and going up again the day after. There is a clear channel visible on the Daily Candles, which has a slight upward slope. The market is likely to stick to this channel for the next several days. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/chfcandle.shtml#candle

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.4188/93...Might rally within overall downtrend

R: 1.4261 / 1.4301
S: 1.4110 / 1.4010

The Pound has dipped a little more today, within its overall downtrend. It is testing the 1.42-41 Support region, which might hold over today-tomorrow. If it does hold, there could be chances of seeing a bounce/ rally towards 1.44, maybe even 1.45-46. In case of a straight break below 1.41, look for a fall towards 1.39-38.

The Bank of England is also scheduled for Thursday, where a 50bp cut is expected to take the BOE rate to 0.50%. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukboe.shtml

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.6347/50...Support at 0.6300

R: 0.6390 / 0.6428-44 / 0.6466-85
S: 0.6300 / 0.6246

The Aussie has good Support at 0.6300 on a rising trendline, as can be seen on Daily Candles on the following page:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle

While this Support holds (as it has done today), there could be chances of an upmove towards 0.6500 over the course of the week. A fall below 0.63 is not anticipated immediately. But, if it happens, a dip towards 0.6245 could be seen.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.





Read more...

Dollar Rises to Highest Since 2006 as AIG Spurs Safety Demand

By Ye Xie and Kim-Mai Cutler

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to the highest level since April 2006 against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as investors sought safety after American International Group Inc. got more U.S. government support.

The euro dropped for a second day versus the greenback as EU leaders vetoed Hungary’s proposal for 180 billion euros ($227 billion) of loans to former communist economies in eastern Europe. The Hungarian forint and Polish zloty slipped to the weakest in about a week against the dollar, while the Swedish krona fell to a record versus the euro.

“The dollar is the supreme currency,” said David Watt, a senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets, a unit of Canada’s biggest bank by assets. “It’s a manifestation of fear. To break the downward spiral, we need to have a couple of weekends without another major blowup of a financial firm.”

The dollar increased 0.4 percent to $1.2620 at 8:45 a.m. in New York, from $1.2669 on Feb. 27. It reached $1.2546, the strongest level since Feb. 19. The euro dropped 0.6 percent to 122.82 yen from 123.61. The yen gained 0.2 percent to 97.34 per dollar from 97.57.

The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the U.S. currency versus the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, climbed to 88.956, the highest level since April 2006.

The U.S. currency strengthened as global equities slumped, with the MSCI World Index dropping 1.8 percent. AIG will get as much as $30 billion in new government capital in a revised bailout after posting the worst loss by a U.S. corporation.

Risk Aversion

“Risk aversion is re-emerging,” said Yuji Saito, head of the foreign-exchange group in Tokyo at Societe Generale SA, France’s third-largest bank. “Investors appear to be repatriating funds.”

EU leaders spurned Hungary’s request for aid at a summit in Brussels yesterday. Latvia, a former Soviet republic, will contract 6.9 percent. Growth in Poland, the biggest eastern European economy, will tumble to 2 percent, the slackest pace since 2002.

“I would advise against taking huge numbers into the debate,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters in Brussels. “I see a very different situation -- you can compare neither Slovenia nor Slovakia with Hungary.”

The ECB may cut its benchmark rate to a record low of 1.5 percent this week to spur economic growth, according to the median forecast of 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The EU’s $17 trillion economy will shrink 1.8 percent this year, according to the European Commission.

European Factories

The euro stayed lower after a survey of purchasing managers by Markit Economics showed the euro region’s manufacturing industry shrank at a record pace in February, with a gauge of activity falling to 33.5, from 34.4 in the previous month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The Hungarian forint led eastern European currencies lower, falling 3.1 percent to 243.84. Poland’s zloty lost 2.7 percent to 3.7669, and the Czech koruna fell 1.5 percent to 22.53.

Australia’s central bank will lower the cash target to 3 percent at a meeting tomorrow, according to the median forecast of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. New Zealand policy makers will lower the target rate by 0.75 percentage point on March 12, a separate Bloomberg survey showed.

New Zealand’s currency slid to the weakest level against the dollar in 6 1/2 years after its Treasury Department said the economy may contract more than expected this year. It fell 1.4 percent to 48.16 against the Japanese yen.

Lending Abroad

The dollar also advanced on speculation the deepening global financial crisis is spurring banks to restrict lending abroad. Stephen Hester, chief executive officer of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said Feb. 26 that the U.K.’s largest government-controlled bank will cut back or withdraw from 36 of 54 countries where it operates to focus on its “heartland.”

The pound and Swiss franc will also benefit from such moves, while currencies of New Zealand and other nations dependent on international banking will suffer, according to Redeker at BNP Paribas. He predicts the dollar will strengthen about 4.8 percent to $1.20 per euro by June 30.

The yen may extend losses from its worst month in 13 years on speculation traders will keep reducing long positions in the currency, according to Standard Chartered Plc.

“With the yen continuing to weaken, we would expect to see more unwinding of yen long positions in the coming weeks,” analysts led by Callum Henderson, Singapore-based head of global currency strategy at Standard Chartered, wrote in a research note today.

Figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Feb. 27 the difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a gain in the yen compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 28,635 on Feb. 24, compared with net longs of 36,188 a week earlier. A long position is a bet an asset will rise.

Japan’s currency weakened 7.9 percent versus the dollar in February, the poorest month since August 1995.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net; Kim-Mai Cutler in London at kcutler@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Nickel Falls for Third Day in London as Stocks Show Weak Demand

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell for a third day in London as the highest stockpiles in almost 14 years signaled weak demand for the metal used to make stainless steel.

Nickel declined almost 15 percent in the first two months, the most among metals traded on the London Metal Exchange. Inventories monitored by the bourse, at the highest since June 1995, are set to rise above 100,000 metric tons “in a matter of days rather than weeks,” said Neil Buxton, managing director of GFMS Metals Consulting Ltd. That would equate to 8 percent of world output, according to RBS Global Banking & Markets.

“The key factors that have driven prices lower are still prevalent,” Buxton said today by phone from London. “The stainless-steel sector has to absorb the bad economic environment. We don’t see any pickup in demand.”

Nickel for delivery in three months lost $271, or 2.7 percent, to $9,729 a ton by 12:04 p.m. in London.

Losses and job cuts at companies such as Acerinox SA, Spain’s largest stainless steelmaker, have eroded demand for nickel and caused stockpiles on the LME to jump more than tenfold in the past two years. Prices may fall below $8,850 a ton, which would be the lowest since July 2003, said Buxton, who forecast the metal will post a surplus for a third consecutive year in 2009.

China, the world’s largest metals consumer, won’t buy nickel for its strategic reserves for now, according to the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association.

China Buying

There’s “no such plan” for the State Reserve Bureau to buy the metal from domestic smelters, said the association’s Deputy Chairman Wen Xianjun, over the phone in Beijing. Wen didn’t give details. The group advises on government policies.

The country may buy 10,000 tons to 20,000 tons of the metal, Reuters had reported citing unidentified people.

China has bought aluminum, zinc, corn and cotton to support domestic producers as prices dropped and exports fell the most in almost 13 years in January.

Copper declined $83, or 2.4 percent, to $3,365 a ton. LME- monitored copper stockpiles fell 5,625 tons, or 1 percent, to 536,675 tons, the biggest daily drop since Oct. 21. Of the total, 4,900 tons left Asian warehouses and the rest from Europe.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-short position in the week ended Feb. 24 to 27,494 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report Feb. 27. That’s the largest since January 1993, according to Bloomberg data.

Net-short positions rose by 67 contracts from a week earlier, according to the report.

Among other LME traded metals, lead fell $6 to $1,040 a ton, and zinc fell $20 to $1,108 a ton. Aluminum slipped $17 to $1,325. Tin lost $100 to $10,825 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Colombia Peso Drops on Size of Rate Cut; Argentine Peso Falls

By Andrea Jaramillo

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Colombia’s peso fell near its lowest level in more than two years after the central bank last week cut its lending rate by an unexpected full percentage point.

Banco de la Republica on Feb. 27 lowered its overnight lending rate to 8 percent from 9 percent as policy makers battle slumping economic growth. The move, which was announced after markets closed, was forecast by only one of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The peso tumbled the most in almost two weeks, weakening 2 percent to 2,594 per dollar at 8:58 a.m. New York time, from 2,554 on Feb. 27, according to the Colombian foreign-exchange electronic transactions system, known as SET-FX. The currency on Feb. 24 touched 2,610, its lowest level since June 2006. The peso has plunged 13 percent this year, the biggest drop among the six- most traded currencies in Latin America.

The yield on Colombia’s 11 percent bonds due in July 2020 rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 9.63 percent, according to Colombia’s stock exchange. The bond’s price fell 0.577 centavo to 109.114 centavos per peso.

In Argentina, the peso had its biggest drop in more than a week, declining 0.4 percent to 3.5786 per dollar, from 3.5650 at the end of last week. It earlier touched 3.5805, the lowest since November 2002. The currency is down 3.5 percent this year.

Argentina’s government will have more difficulty financing its needs next year as the global financial crisis worsens the outlook, Moody’s Investors Service’s Vice President Gabriel Torres wrote in a report today.

The yield on the country’s inflation-linked peso bonds due in December 2033 rose one basis point to 19.63 percent, according Citigroup Inc.’s local unit.

Chile’s peso declined 0.8 percent to 601.55 per dollar, from 596.75 yesterday. The currency has gained 6.1 percent so far this year.

The yield for a basket of Chile’s five-year, fixed-rate peso bonds rose five basis points to 3.48 percent, according to Bloomberg prices.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrea Jaramillo in Bogota at ajaramillo1@bloomberg.net;





Read more...

Russia Stock Gains Strengthen Putin as Ukraine Drops

By Emma O’Brien and Laura Cochrane

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, the worst-performing major stock market in 2008, was Europe’s best last month as the ruble rose and reserves stabilized. Every neighboring market crumbled.

The Micex equity index climbed 6.6 percent in February as the world’s second-biggest oil producer stopped speculators from driving down the ruble and depleting its $382 billion of foreign exchange reserves. In Ukraine, the central bank’s holdings fell 24 percent since August and the benchmark PFTS Index lost 21 percent last month. Latvia’s OMX Riga Index dropped 8 percent.

While Russia’s government said the economy will contract for the first time in a decade and currency reserves are down 36 percent from August, the nation’s relative strength is raising Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s influence over former Soviet states. Ukraine discussed borrowing $5 billion. Kazakhstan wants Russia to buy ailing BTA Bank. Belarus is asking for $3 billion in loans, on top of $2 billion granted last year.

“Russia isn’t looking at a straight-line deterioration into oblivion,” said Kieran Curtis, who helps manage $800 million in emerging-market fixed-income assets in London at Aviva Investors Ltd. “It has enough liquid assets to take stakes in all kinds of things in the former Soviet states.”

Last year, international investors fled Russia after its war with Georgia, a 54 percent decline in the price of Urals crude, and the global credit crisis sent the Micex down 67 percent. Speculators targeted the ruble, driving it 20 percent lower against the dollar and 19 percent versus the euro. Bank Rossii spent $216 billion to keep the currency’s seven-month drop from turning into a rout.

Downgraded

Standard & Poor’s cut Russia’s credit rating in December by one level to BBB, the second-lowest investment-grade ranking. The government expects to run a budget deficit of about 8 percent of gross domestic product this year.

The central bank steadied the ruble, which gained 0.5 percent against the dollar last month, by pledging to raise interest rates and curtailing loans that banks were using to bet against the currency. Investors anticipate government plans to provide $200 billion in loans and reduce taxes will bolster the economy and push up the Micex, which is down 67 percent from its record high in May.

The Micex fell 1.6 percent today and the ruble dropped as much as 0.9 percent to its weakest level against the dollar in a week.

Russia is “still better off than others, mostly because of the reserves,” said Beat Siegenthaler, chief emerging-markets strategist in London for TD Securities Ltd.

Political Rivalry

Eighteen years after the collapse of the Soviet Union depleted Moscow’s power, Ukraine needs foreign funds to close its $12.3 billion current-account deficit after the global recession curbed demand for steel and international credit dried up. The currency, the hryvnia, dropped 44 percent against the dollar in the past six months. The country’s 22 percent inflation rate is the highest in continental Europe.

Ukraine estimates a budget deficit at 5 percent of GDP for 2009 and risks violating terms of a $16.4 billion International Monetary Fund loan agreement. Foreign-currency reserves fell 24 percent since August and are below the $30.2 billion the IMF required. The second portion of the credit, due in January, hasn’t been approved.

The country has also been weakened by the political rivalry between Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko, who led the so-called Orange Revolution in late 2004 when the country’s pro-Russian government was peacefully overthrown.

Gas Spat

Ukraine tried to increase ties with western Europe and the U.S., seeking membership to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization last year and the European Union. Russia shut off natural gas shipments through Ukraine over a price dispute in January.

Now, the sinking economy is giving Putin, 56, the advantage. Timoshenko requested aid from Russia, the U.S., the European Union, China and Japan this year and Russia gave a “positive response,” she said Feb. 9. Yushchenko shut down what he called “unauthorized” negotiations for a loan.

“This crisis is the best opportunity that Russia’s had to rein in Ukraine and make sure nobody else moves in on their backyard for a long time,” said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Moscow-based bank UralSib.

Moscow won’t discuss giving a loan to Ukraine until the political situation in Kiev stabilizes, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told a press conference in Moscow today.

Flexing Muscle

Russia may be willing to draw on its reserves to prop up neighboring economies, said Ivan Tchakarov, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in London. “Ukraine will require more than the $16 billion from the IMF, so they will need Russian money,” he said. “It’s the perfect time for Russia to flex its muscles.”

Russia’s foreign-currency debt is rated eight levels higher than Ukraine. S&P cut Ukraine’s credit rating by two levels last week to CCC+, seven below investment grade and the lowest in Europe. S&P also cut Latvia to below investment grade.

Investors demand a record 28.1 percentage points more in yield on Ukrainian government bonds than Russian, compared with a gap of 3 percentage points six months ago, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes. As recently as 2003, Ukraine’s bonds yielded 2 percentage points less than Russia’s.

Contracts to protect Ukraine government bonds against default imply a 69.6 percent chance Ukraine will fail to pay its debt in the next two years and 91.8 percent odds in the next five years, according to CMA Datavision prices for credit- default swaps last week.

Belarus, Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan is seeking to sell its 78 percent stake in Almaty-based BTA Bank, the country’s largest, to Russia’s government-controlled lender OAO Sberbank, Arman Dunayev, deputy chief of Kazakhstan’s state oil fund, said Feb. 2.

Armenia will receive $500 million from Russia, equivalent to about 2.5 percent of its gross domestic product, Putin said on Feb. 28. Belarus, which borders Russia and Poland, has a $2.46 billion credit line from the IMF in addition to loans from Russia.

Kyrgyzstan got a $2 billion loan from Russia and was promised a further $150 million in economic aid on Feb. 3. The same day, Kyrgyzstan’s government announced it would shutter the military base the U.S. Air Force has used for supplying troops in Afghanistan.

“I welcome Russia’s efforts to try and create stronger economic linkages because for investors it’s stabilizing,” said Jerome Booth, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management Ld. in London, which manages $36 billion of emerging-market assets. “It’s looking for relationships it wants to solidify in the region.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Emma O’Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net; Laura Cochrane in London at = lcochrane2@bloomberg.net





Read more...

German Stocks Drop for Second Day, Led by Financial Companies

By Mike Gavin

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- German stocks declined for a second day on concern financial companies may need to raise more capital after credit-related losses and writedowns eroded earnings.

Commerzbank AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Deutsche Postbank AG and Allianz SE all slumped more than 5 percent after HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank by market value, said it plans to raise 12.5 billion pounds ($17.7 billion) in a rights offer.

The benchmark DAX Index percent dropped 3.2 percent to 3,722.74 as of 12:24 p.m. in Frankfurt. The measure has tumbled 23 percent this year on concern government measures won’t be enough to revive the global economy. DAX futures expiring in March percent sank 3.1 percent, while the broader HDAX Index decreased 3.1 percent.

Commerzbank slid 7 percent to 2.60 euros. Chief Executive Officer Martin Blessing said the bank may need more cash from the government, though it’s fine for now, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported.

The lender first tapped Germany’s Soffin bank-rescue fund for 8.2 billion euros ($10.4 billion) in November. In January, Commerzbank said it would get another 10 billion euros of aid and that the government would take a stake of 25 percent plus one share. The bank has also been granted 15 billion euros of debt guarantees by the government.

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest bank, sank 5.9 percent to 19.55 euros. Allianz, the country’s largest insurer, slumped 5.7 percent to 50.60 euros. Postbank lost 5.5 percent to 8.31 euros.

HSBC posted full-year net income today that missed analysts’ estimates and cut its dividend.

Credit Losses

Financial firms around the globe have racked up more than $1.1 trillion in credit losses and writedowns, pushing the U.S., Europe and Japan into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II.

Billionaire Warren Buffett said the economy will be “in shambles” this year, and perhaps longer, before recovering from the reckless lending that caused the worst “freefall” he ever saw in the financial system.

Munich Re, the world’s biggest reinsurer, tumbled 5.1 percent to 92.02 euros. Deutsche Boerse AG, Europe’s largest exchange by market value, sank 5.8 percent to 34.26 euros.

The following stocks also rose or fell in German markets. Symbols are in parentheses.

GFT Technologies AG (GFT GY) surged 16 percent to 1.46 euros. The banking software company predicted 2009 revenue at the same level as last year and proposed paying a dividend of 10 cents a share.

Linde AG (LIN GY) declined 2.2 percent to 49.86 euros. HSBC Holdings Plc lowered its share-price estimate for the world’s second-biggest maker of industrial gases 11 percent to 75 euros.

Praktiker AG (PRA GY) tumbled 5.6 percent to 4.03 euros. Deutsche Bank cut its share-price estimate for Germany’s second- biggest home-improvement retailer to 6.50 euros from 8 euros.

Tognum AG (TGM GY) slid 4.5 percent to 7.65 euros as HSBC reduced its share-price projection for the diesel-engine maker to 28 percent to 13 euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Gavin in Frankfurt at mgavin2@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

U.K. Stocks Retreat, Led by HSBC; Banks Tumble Most Since 1985

By Sarah Jones

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks dropped for a second day, as bank shares tumbled by the most in more than two decades after HSBC Holdings Group Plc announced plans to raise 12.5 billion pounds ($17.7 billion) in a share sale.

HSBC plunged 20 percent after Europe’s largest bank also reported earnings that missed analysts’ estimates as sub prime losses cut profit. BHP Billiton Ltd. and BP Plc led a sell off in commodity producers as Warren Buffett said the U.S., the world’s largest economy, is in a “shambles.”

The FTSE 100 Index dropped 157.34, or 4.1 percent, to 3,672.75 at 12:12 p.m. in London, poised for its lowest close since March 2003. The FTSE All-Share Index lost 3.9 percent, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index retreated 2.9 percent.

“The double whammy of the rights issue, coupled with results at the lower end of expectations, have conspired to drive both HSBC and the banking sector lower,” said Richard Hunter, head of U.K. equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers in London.

European shares extended declines after American International Group Inc. reported a record fourth-quarter loss and the U.S. government said the insurer deemed too important to fail will get as much as $30 billion in a revised bailout.

HSBC tumbled 20 percent to 393.50 pence, sending a measure of bank shares down 17 percent, the biggest one-day decline on a closing basis since at least 1985.

The lender today said it plans to raise capital as it cuts 6,100 jobs and closes its HFC and Beneficial consumer lending units in the U.S. HSBC reported a 70 percent drop in full-year net profit to $5.73 billion, missing analysts’ estimate of $13.6 billion, and cut its full-dividend by 29 percent.

Royal Bank Retreats

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, the largest bank controlled by the government, slipped 5.2 percent to 22 pence. Standard Chartered Plc, which makes the majority of its earnings in Asia, declined 9.5 percent to 601 pence.

BHP, the world’s largest mining company, lost 5.6 percent to 1,044 pence. Rio Tinto Group, the third-biggest, declined 5.8 percent to 1,696 pence. BP, Europe’s second-largest oil company, fell 4.3 percent to 429 pence.

Copper fell in Asia and London, leading a decline in most industrial metals, while crude oil also retreated as a contraction in China’s manufacturing and a drop in South Korean exports renewed concern the global recession is deepening.

Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said in his annual letter to shareholders Feb. 28 that the U.S. economy will be a “shambles” this year and perhaps longer, before recovering from the reckless lending that caused the worst “freefall” he ever saw in the financial system.

The following stocks also gained or fell in the U.K. market. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

Amlin Plc (AML LN) gained 11 pence, or 3.2 percent, to 354 after the largest Lloyd’s of London insurer by market value said it plans to raise its dividend 13 percent and predicted higher premium rates this year and next.

Candover Investments Plc (CDI LN) dropped 31.25 pence, or 13 percent, to 218.5. The British investor in leveraged takeovers since 1984 canceled a commitment to invest 1 billion euros ($1.26 billion) in its latest buyout fund and will cut jobs after posting a loss for 2008 of 212.6 million pounds.

Premier Foods Plc (PFD LN) lost 1 pence, or 3.3 percent, to 29. The second-largest U.K. bread baker will seek to raise 400 million pounds in a rights offer to reduce debt, the Sunday Times said, without saying where it got the information.

Whitbread Plc (WTB LN) dropped 31.5 pence, or 4.2 percent, to 715. The owner of the Premier Inn budget hotels said sales growth slowed as fewer people stayed at its hotels. Revenue rose 4.9 percent at outlets open at least a year in the 50 weeks ended Feb. 12. That was less than the already-reported 6.7 percent gain for the first 39 weeks.

Irish companies:

Allied Irish Banks Plc (ALBK ID) gained 3.5 cents, or 9.1 percent, to 42 after Ireland’s biggest lender by market value reported 2008 earnings per share excluding one-items of 66.5 cents, in line with the median estimate of analysts.

Kingspan Group Plc (KSP ID) dropped 7.2 cents, or 3.3 percent, to 2.14 euros. Europe’s largest maker of flooring and insulation panels said it won’t pay a final dividend and may close more plants after full-year profit fell 77 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

U.S. Stock Futures Drop as Buffett Says Economy in ‘Shambles’

By Adria Cimino and Lynn Thomasson

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Dow Jones Industrial Average will tumble below 7,000 for the first time since 1997, after Warren Buffett said the economy is in “shambles” and American International Group Inc. reported a $61.7 billion loss.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. retreated 5.7 percent after posting a 9.6 percent decline in book value per share, the worst annual performance since Buffett took control in 1965. General Electric Co. and Caterpillar Inc. slumped more than 2.5 percent before a report that may show manufacturing contracted. Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. dropped 6 percent on HSBC Holdings Plc’s 12.5 billion pounds ($17.7 billion) rights offering.

“The bear market has only begun,” Robert Prechter, the founder of Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International Inc. who is famous for predicting the 1987 stock market crash, said on Bloomberg Radio. “I don’t see the clear weather yet.”

Dow average futures expiring in March decreased 120 points, or 1.7 percent, to 6,932 at 8:32 a.m. in New York. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures dropped 2.3 percent to 717.40. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries fell 1.9 percent and dropped as low as 735.49, the lowest intraday level since the Iraq War began in March 2003.

U.S. stocks have fallen three straight weeks, sending the S&P 500 to a 12-year low. The index lost 4.5 percent from Feb. 23-27 as the U.S. government rescued Citigroup and drugmakers and insurers fell on President Barack Obama’s health-care plan. The S&P 500 and the Dow average are off to their worst starts to a year, dropping 19 percent and 20 percent, respectively.

‘Real Panic’

Options investors are paying twice this decade’s average to protect against losses in U.S. stocks through 2011, signaling the bear market that already wiped out $10.4 trillion of equity value may last two more years.

“There’s a real panic in the markets, with some people wanting to buy long-term insurance at any price,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage $16 billion, including $130 million in options at Huntington Asset Advisors Inc. in Cincinnati. “People have lost hope.”

Contracts to protect against a decline in the S&P 500 for two years cost $15,160 on the Chicago Board Options Exchange, compared with $6,875 in 2007, according to price-adjusted data compiled by Bloomberg. The current level shows traders expect the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities to fluctuate twice as much in the next two years as it has since 2000.

‘Freefall’

Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares lost 5.7 percent to $2,418.24 in Germany. Fourth-quarter net income fell 96 percent to $117 million on the falling value of holdings including derivative bets. The 9.6 percent drop in Berkshire’s book value last year compares with the 37 percent retreat in the S&P 500, including reinvested dividends, the best relative performance since 2002.

Buffett said the economy will be “in shambles” this year, and perhaps longer, before recovering from the reckless lending that caused the worst “freefall” he ever saw in the financial system.

GE lost 3.2 percent to $8.24. The only company left in the 30-stock Dow average from its founding in 1896 cut its dividend by 68 percent last week to conserve cash. Caterpillar declined 2.5 percent to $24.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 34 in February from 35.6 the prior month, according to the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

‘Negative Spiral’

“The situation is very difficult and economic data isn’t stabilizing,” said Guillaume Duchesne, Geneva-based equity strategist at Fortis Private Banking, which oversees about $117 billion. “That justifies the negative spiral in the stock market.”

Citigroup fell 6 percent to $1.41, and Bank of America retreated 9.9 percent to $3.56. HSBC plans to raise 12.5 billion pounds in the U.K.’s biggest rights offering as it eliminates 6,100 jobs and closes consumer lending units in the U.S. after subprime losses cut profit.

AIG advanced 14 percent to 48 cents. The insurer deemed too important to fail will get as much as $30 billion in new government capital in a revised bailout after posting a record fourth-quarter loss.

To contact the reporters on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net; Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Stocks Decline From Tokyo to London; HSBC, BHP Billiton Retreat

By Adam Haigh

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia fell, U.S. futures slumped and Treasuries rose as Warren Buffett said the economy is in a “shambles” and American International Group Inc. announced a $61.7 billion loss.

HSBC Holdings Plc tumbled 19 percent in London, the biggest drop since at least 1992, after saying it plans to raise 12.5 billion pounds ($17.7 billion) in a rights offer, increasing concern that financial firms need more capital. General Electric Co. and Caterpillar Inc. slumped more than 2 percent before a report that may show U.S. manufacturing contracted. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, lost 5.2 percent as copper and nickel decreased and oil slid more than 5 percent.

“Things are getting worse,” said Alex Crooke, portfolio manager at Henderson Global Investors in London, which has about $125 billion. “The economy is still deteriorating and bad debts are still going to appear,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries sank 1.9 percent to 736.99 at 1:33 p.m. in London, extending its 2009 decline to 20 percent, the worst start to a year since the gauge was created in 1970. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slid 3.4 percent, while Hungary’s forint fell after European Union leaders spurned aid pleas for eastern Europe.

Worst ‘Freefall’

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring this month dropped 2.2 percent, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures suggested the 30-stock gauge will fall below 7,000 for the first time since 1997. Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said in his annual letter to shareholders that the U.S. economy will be a “shambles” this year and perhaps longer, before recovering from the reckless lending that caused the worst “freefall” he ever saw in the financial system.

U.S. futures extended their drop after AIG posted its record loss. The S&P 500 slid to a 12-year low last week as the U.S. Treasury agreed to convert as much as $25 billion of Citigroup Inc. preferred shares into common stock in a third rescue attempt for the lender.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell seven basis points to 2.95 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 1.7 percent to $958.51 an ounce in London as investors sought assets perceived as safe.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 3.4 percent as Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Hynix Semiconductor Inc fell, while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slumped 3.7 percent, as the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index sank 3.9 percent.

Bear Market

The Stoxx 600 has posted six straight monthly declines as the U.S. economy contracted at the fastest pace since 1982, forecasts at companies from Novartis AG to Deutsche Post AG disappointing investors, and the economic crisis in eastern Europe deepened.

“This is a bear market and patience is what you need,” said Lucy MacDonald, London-based chief investment officer of global equities at RCM UK Ltd., which has about $100 billion under management. “We need to see stabilizing of economic and corporate profit growth,” she said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

HSBC tumbled 19 percent to 399 pence. The bank reported 2008 net income of $5.73 billion, compared with $19.1 billion a year earlier. HSBC will raise about 12.5 billion pounds by offering investors 5 new shares at 254 pence each for every 12 they own already.

European Banks, AIG

Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-largest bank, lost 6.8 percent to 2.60 euros. Chief Executive Officer Martin Blessing said Germany’s second-largest bank may need more cash from the government, though it’s fine for now, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported.

BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank, slid 8.3 percent to 23.72 euros, extending its 2009 drop to 22 percent.

AIG, the insurer deemed too important to fail, will get up to $30 billion in new government capital in a revised bailout, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve said. The shares gained 8 cents to 50 cents in New York.

Citigroup slipped 6.7 percent to $1.40 after sinking 39 percent on Feb. 27. Bank of America Corp. lost 14 percent to $3.41 in New York.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank tumbled 6.8 percent to 423 yen. Mizuho Financial lost 3.7 percent to 181 yen. Monthly wages in Japan fell 1.3 percent in January from a year earlier, after declining 0.8 percent in December.

The cost of protecting European and Asia-Pacific bonds from default jumped, credit-default swaps show. The Markit iTraxx Europe index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings rose 7 basis points to 187, JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices show. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan rose 17.5 basis points, according to ICAP Plc.

Hynix, BHP

Hynix, Asia’s second-biggest maker of memory chips, slumped 4.2 percent to 8,280 won in Seoul after the country’s exports dropped for a fourth month in February.

BHP fell 5.2 percent to 1,049 pence. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, declined 4.6 percent to 1,718 pence. Copper fell 1.4 percent on the London Metals Exchange, while nickel slid 3 percent.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest oil producer, lost 3.8 percent to 1,486 pence. BP Plc, the region’s second biggest, slid 3.7 percent to 431.5 pence. Crude oil fell for a second day on signs that manufacturing in the world’s two biggest energy consumers contracted last month, cutting fuel demand.

Eastern Europe

The MSCI EM Eastern Europe Index slid 3.3 percent after European Union leaders spurned pleas for special aid for eastern Europe and a rescue package for automakers, bowing to German concerns over budget deficits as the economic crisis escalates.

Last week three international lenders -- the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank -- announced loans of up to 24.5 billion euros ($30.9 billion) for eastern European banks.

The Hungarian forint dropped 2.4 percent to 306.70 versus the euro and the Czech koruna depreciated 1.2 percent to 28.458 against Europe’s common currency.

General Electric slid 3.2 percent to $8.24 in pre-market trading in New York. The only company left in the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average from its founding in 1896 is adding to investor pessimism as credit analysts threaten to reduce its AAA rating.

GE, Options Market

GE sank to its lowest price since 1995 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after cutting its dividend for the first time in 71 years on Feb. 27. Even that wasn’t enough to convince Moody’s Investors Service to say the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company’s credit profile would be left unchanged.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 34 in February from 35.6 the prior month, according to the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

Stocks remained lower after a Commerce Department report showed consumer spending in the U.S. rose in January for the first time in seven months as Americans took advantage of post- holiday discounts that hurt retailer profits. The 0.6 percent increase was larger than anticipated and followed a 1 percent decrease in December.

Stock options traders in the U.S. are paying twice this decade’s average to protect against losses in U.S. stocks through 2011, signaling the bear market that already wiped out $10.4 trillion of equity value may last two more years.

Contracts to protect against a decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for two years cost $15,160 on the Chicago Board Options Exchange, compared with $6,875 in 2007, according to price-adjusted data compiled by Bloomberg.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

AIG, Dish, HSBC, Rio Tinto, State Street: U.S. Equity Preview

By Rita Nazareth

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual moves in U.S. trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses and prices are as of 7:55 a.m. in New York.

Commodities producers tumbled as copper fell in Asia and London, leading a decline in most industrial metals, and oil slipped 5.5 percent in New York.

Rio Tinto Plc (RTP US) slipped 4.1 percent to $97.82. BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP US) fell 4.7 percent to $34.70. ArcelorMittal (MT US) declined 5.5 percent to $18.26. BP Plc (BP US) dropped 4.2 percent to $36.74.

American Express Co. (AXP US) fell 6.3 percent to $11.30. The largest U.S. credit-card company by purchases revised its fourth-quarter net income to $240 million from $172 million because of a “calculation error.”

American International Group Inc. (AIG US) surged 21 percent to 51 cents. The insurer that posted a $61.7 billion fourth- quarter loss will get up to $30 billion in new government capital in a revised bailout, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve said.

AT&T Inc. (T US): the second-largest U.S. phone company was added to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s “conviction buy” list, which cited an aggressive estimate reset, a safe dividend, and positive trends in upcoming first quarter.

Baxter International Inc. (BAX US): The world’s largest maker of blood-disease treatments may rise as much as 20 percent by year’s end as profits climb and the company buys back shares, Barron’s reported, without citing anyone.

Citigroup Inc. (C US): A measure of the financial strength at the bank is likely to improve on the government plan to convert preferred stock into common shares, which may make the company appealing to some investors, Barron’s reported, without citing anyone.

Dish Network Corp. (DISH US): The second-biggest U.S. satellite television provider reported fourth-quarter earnings of 48 cents per share, a penny below the average analyst estimate.

HSBC Holdings Plc (HBC US): Europe’s largest bank by market value plans to raise 12.5 billion pounds ($17.7 billion) in the U.K.’s biggest rights offering as subprime losses cut 2008 profit to $5.73 billion, 58 percent less than the average analyst estimate.

HSBC plunged 21 percent to $27.60. Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LYG US) lost 11 percent to $2.90. ING Groep NV (ING US) declined 3.8 percent to $4.34. Barclays Plc (BCS US) fell 4.1 percent to $4.93. UBS AG (UBS US) dropped 4.2 percent to $8.67. Credit Suisse Group AG (CS US) slipped 5.7 percent to$22.79.

KeyCorp (KEY US): The second-largest bank based in Ohio said one of its investment funds lost as much as $186 million from Bernard Madoff’s alleged Ponzi scheme.

State Street Corp. (STT US): The world’s largest money manager for institutions was cut to “neutral” from “buy” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., citing “a big earnings headwind.”

Stericycle Inc. (SRCL US): The company, which disposes of used hypodermic needles and other medical treatment byproducts, may rise to $66 during the next two years as demand for its services increase and sales rise, Barron’s reported, citing Neal Kaufman, an analyst at Baron Capital Inc. in New York. Stericycle shares rose 0.9 percent to $47.98.

Woodward Governor Co. (WGOV US) plunged 15 percent to $14.60. The maker of turbine systems said full-year profit will be lower than its previous forecast as customers order less amid the worsening economy.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at nazareth@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

U.S. January Personal Income and Spending: Summary

By Kristy Scheuble

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of the U.S. personal income and spending report for Jan. released by the Commerce Department.


===============================================================================
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July Jan.
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 YOY
===============================================================================
-----------------Based on Current Dollars-----------------
Personal income 0.4% -0.2% -0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% -0.8% 1.9%
Compensation 0.0% -0.3% -0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0%
Wage & salary -0.2% -0.4% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
Disposable incom 1.7% -0.2% -0.3% 0.1% 0.2% -1.0% -0.9% 4.0%
Personal spending 0.6% -1.0% -0.8% -1.2% -0.4% -0.2% -0.1% -1.0%
3-mo. annual % -8.5% -9.1% -6.1% -2.8% 1.0% 4.0% 5.9% n/a
Savings rate 5.0% 3.9% 3.1% 2.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1.7% 0.1%
--------------Based on Chained (2000) Dollars-------------
Personal spending 0.4% -0.5% 0.3% -0.8% -0.5% -0.1% -0.6% -1.6%
3-mo. annual % -2.3% -4.3% -4.7% -4.8% -3.8% -2.1% 0.1% n/a
===============================================================================
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July Jan.
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 YOY
===============================================================================
--------------Based on Chained (2000) Dollars-------------
Disposable income 1.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% -1.0% -1.5% 3.3%
-----------------Price Indexes (2000=100)-----------------
Personal spending 0.2% -0.5% -1.1% -0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7%
3-mo. annual % -6.3% -5.0% -1.6% 2.1% 5.0% 6.2% 5.8% n/a
Ex-food, energy 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1.6%
3-mo. annual % 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% n/a
-----------------------YOY%-----------------------
PCE Deflator 0.7% 0.8% 1.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.4% 4.5% n/a
(3 decimals) 0.662% 0.775% 1.579% 3.317% 4.069% 4.364% 4.468% n/a
Ex food & energy 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% n/a
(3 decimals) 1.599% 1.714% 1.920% 2.058% 2.251% 2.382% 2.382% n/a
Market Based PCE 0.4% 0.6% 1.5% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.6% n/a
Market Core PCE 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% n/a
-----------------------MOM%-----------------------
PCE Deflator 0.2% -0.5% -1.1% -0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% n/a
(3 decimals) 0.200% -0.518% -1.090% -0.435% 0.085% -0.012% 0.548% n/a
===============================================================================
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July Jan.
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 YOY
===============================================================================
PCE Deflator -----------------------MOM%-----------------------
Ex food & energy 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% n/a
(3 decimals) 0.120% -0.020% 0.002% 0.039% 0.146% 0.176% 0.183% n/a
Market Based PCE 0.2% -0.6% -1.3% -0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% n/a
Market Core PCE 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% n/a
===============================================================================
NOTE: All figures are seasonally adjusted and month-over-month
unless otherwise stated. Three month annualized calculations are
the latest three months average compared to the previous three
months average.


SOURCE: U.S. Commerce Department. http://www.bea.gov

To contact the reporter on this story: Kristy Scheuble in Washington at kmckeaney@bloomberg.net





Read more...

U.K. Manufacturing Shrinks as Recession Slows Lending Growth

By Jennifer Ryan and Brian Swint

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. manufacturing shrank for a 10th month and consumer lending rose at the slowest pace since at least 1993, evidence Britain’s recession is intensifying.

An index based on a survey of factories fell to 34.7 in February from 35.8 the previous month, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Markit research said in a report today. Net consumer lending increased in January by 1.1 billion pounds ($1.6 billion), a 15-year low, the Bank of England said.

The government is pumping billions of pounds into banks as the British economy slides into the worst recession in at least three decades. The Bank of England will probably cut the benchmark interest rate this week to a record low of 0.5 percent and start adding money to the economy through so-called quantitative easing.

“We’re going to see a continued drag in manufacturing output, and there’s not enough credit going to the household sector,” said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank AG in London. “We see a half-point rate cut this week and probably an estimate of how much the bank will do in quantitative easing.”

Today’s manufacturing reading is the weakest since the index reached a 17-year low of 34.5 in November. A measure of employment and production contracted at the fastest rate in the survey’s history, CIPS and Markit said.

Job Cuts

GKN Plc, the U.K. maker of car parts and aircraft components, reported a full-year loss on Feb. 26 and said it will eliminate an additional 2,400 jobs this year.

Officials are taking new steps to shore up struggling industries and revive lending. The Bank of England is edging closer to providing support for carmakers’ British finance units, which would help them to lend to new-car buyers, Paul Everitt, chief executive officer of the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders, said in an interview on Feb. 24.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government last week instructed Northern Rock, the nationalized mortgage lender, to expand lending by 14 billion pounds and is guaranteeing assets for Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc to prevent its collapse.

Mortgage approvals were lower than the 33,000 median forecast of 24 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, Bank of England data showed.

Net lending secured on dwellings rose by 690 million pounds in January, compared with 1.8 billion pounds the previous month, the central bank said. Combined with net consumer credit of 403 million pounds, total net lending increased at the slowest pace since records began in April 1993.

Negative Loop

“There’s no sense yet that this downturn is bottoming out,” said Richard McGuire, an economist at Royal Bank of Canada in London. “Increasing unemployment will increase defaults and will start a negative feedback loop. We expect a half-point rate cut this week” from the current 1 percent.

The British economy contracted at the sharpest pace since 1980 in the fourth quarter and joblessness rose to a 10-year high in January. House prices dropped an annual 10 percent last month, mortgage lender Hometrack Ltd. said in London today.

The U.K. central bank will this week cut the benchmark interest rate by a half-point to the lowest since it was founded in 1694, according to the median of 60 economists’ forecasts.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at Jryan13@bloomberg.net; Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

European Inflation Rate Holds Near Lowest Since 1999

By Jurjen van de Pol

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Inflation in Europe stayed close to the lowest rate since 1999 in February as the global financial crisis undermined consumer confidence and curtailed spending.

Consumer prices in the euro area rose 1.2 percent, compared with a 1.1 percent increase in January, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists expected a 1 percent inflation rate in February, according to the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The January reading was the lowest since July 1999.

Oil prices have plunged 70 percent from an all-time high last summer as the financial turmoil has curbed global growth and pushed the euro-zone economy into its worst recession since World War II. The European Central Bank has signaled it is ready to cut interest rates to a record low this week to bolster the economy.

“Today’s weak inflation data certainly provide further scope for a large cut in interest rates at the ECB’s meeting this week,” said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Europe Ltd. in London. “The risk is still that 50 basis points does not provide enough of a cushion to the unraveling euro-area economy.”

All 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict the ECB to reduce the benchmark rate by 50 basis points, or one-half percentage point, to a record low 1.5 percent at its next meeting on March 5. The central bank already has cut the rate by 2.5 percentage points since early October.

The euro extended losses after the inflation report was published. The European currency traded at $1.2593 at 11:03 a.m. in London, down 0.6 percent.

Largest Economy

Inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, and Italy unexpectedly accelerated in February. The German inflation rate rose to 1 percent from 0.9 percent in January, led by rising prices for package vacations and motor fuels, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said last week.

“Fluctuations are always likely around a trend and all the indications continue to be that euro-zone inflation will come down significantly further over the coming months,” said Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight in London.

Europe’s manufacturing industry shrank at a record pace in February as export orders collapsed and companies scaled back production, Markit Economics said today. A gauge of manufacturing activity declined 33.5 from 34.4 in January, falling more than initially estimated.

The inflation report released today is an estimate. The statistics office will publish a detailed breakdown of the data, including energy-price inflation as well as the core rate, on March 16.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jurjen van de Pol in Amsterdam jvandepol@bloomberg.net





Read more...

U.S. Consumer Spending Rises After Six Straight Drops

By Courtney Schlisserman

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending rose in January for the first time in seven months as Americans took advantage of post-holiday discounts that hurt retailer profits.

The 0.6 percent increase was larger than anticipated and followed a 1 percent decrease in December, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Measures of inflation eased over the last year.

The advance is likely to be short-lived as the biggest employment slump since the end of World War II and record foreclosures shake consumer confidence. President Barack Obama is trying to stem what may become the worst recession in seven decades with a stimulus plan that the administration estimates will create or save 3.5 million jobs and with mortgage initiatives.

“I don’t think we are at the point yet where we can reasonably expect to see consistent increases in income and spending,” said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. Still, “it’s putting us off to a better start in the first quarter than some had assumed.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index fell 2 percent to 719.50 at 8:39 a.m. in New York, while benchmark 10- year note yields slipped to 2.95 percent from 3.02 percent on Feb. 27.

Pay Increases

Economists forecast spending would increase 0.4 percent according to the median of 62 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from a drop of 0.4 percent to a gain of 0.8 percent.

Personal income climbed 0.4 percent, pushed up by pay increases to government employees and cost-of-living adjustment to federal transfer payments. Salaries and wages fell 0.2 percent, a third consecutive decrease.

Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, increased 1.5 percent after adjusting for inflation, the most since May.

The price gauge tied to spending patterns increased 0.7 percent from January 2008, down from a 0.8 percent increase in the 12 months ended in December. The Fed’s preferred gauge of prices, which excludes food and fuel, climbed 1.6 percent from a year earlier, the smallest gain since December 2003.

Adjusted for inflation, spending increased 0.4 percent. Price-adjusted purchases of durable goods, such as autos, furniture, and other long-lasting items, rose 0.2 percent. Purchases of non-durable goods climbed 0.7 percent, and spending on services, which account for almost 60 percent of all outlays, rose 0.3 percent.

‘Very Tentative’

J.C. Penney Co., the third-largest U.S. department-store chain, on Feb. 20 forecast its first quarterly loss in almost five years. The company said it’s cutting inventory and halving the number of new stores it will open this year to contend with lower spending on clothing, jewelry, linens and rugs. Sales dropped 9.9 percent in the three months ended Jan. 31.

“The customer’s very tentative,” Chief Executive Officer Myron Ullman said on a conference call. “They’re buying what they need and they’re being very smart about how they spend their money.”

The savings rate climbed to 5 percent, the highest level in almost 14 years. A positive rate indicates consumers are earning more than they are spending.

Obama’s Plans

Obama’s stimulus package includes tax cuts for most U.S. families and allocates billions of dollars toward cities to rebuild crumbling infrastructure while creating jobs. Last month he also introduced a plan to help as many as 9 million people restructure their mortgages to avoid foreclosure.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the U.S. economy is in a “severe” contraction and warned the recession may last into 2010 unless policy makers can stabilize the financial system.

The economy contracted at a 6.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the weakest reading since 1982, the Commerce Department said on Feb. 27. Consumer spending fell at a 4.3 percent pace, the most in almost three decades.

Economists at Morgan Stanley in New York last week projected the economy would shrink at a 5.9 percent pace in the first three months of the year. That would make the six months through March the worst two quarters since 1957-1958.

To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net





Read more...