Economic Calendar

Friday, May 8, 2009

EU Emission Permits Rise to Four-Month High as Oil, Stocks Gain

By Rachel Graham

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- European Union emission permit prices rose to a four-month high in London as crude-oil prices and stock markets advanced, signaling that the economy and demand for carbon allowances may strengthen.

EU carbon dioxide allowances for December added as much as 85 cents, or 5.7 percent, to 15.70 euros ($21.09) a metric ton on London’s European Climate Exchange. That’s the highest intraday price since Jan. 7. The contract traded at 15.58 euros as of 1:30 p.m. local time.

“It’s the whole positive environment,” Roland Stenzel, a trader at E&T Energie Handelsgesellschaft mbH, said by telephone from Vienna. “Oil has recovered well; equities are strong.”

Brent crude for June delivery rose for a third day. Stocks climbed after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. review of the banking industry’s health “should provide considerable comfort.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Rachel Graham in London rgraham13@bloomberg.net





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Spanish Solar Subsidy Seduces FPL, Scorches Consumers

By Gianluca Baratti

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Spain has turned itself into the world’s biggest builder of solar-energy plants, attracting developers from the U.S. and France by guaranteeing prices that weigh down Spanish consumers.

The government promotes clean fuels by letting generators charge as much as 10 times more for power from the sun or wind than from burning coal. The premium, added to bills of homes and businesses, has spawned a solar-investment boom by utilities, from Florida’s FPL Group Inc. to Electricite de France SA.

As a result, developers now plan enough solar thermal projects to generate the power of nine new atomic reactors, or 14,000 megawatts if all get built, Spain’s industry ministry said. That’s the biggest project pipeline, beating sun-blessed Australia and the U.S., where Congress increased aid this year for alternative energy, an Emerging Energy Research study said.

“Who wouldn’t want to enter a business that’s paid many times more than the market rate, and where the customer is guaranteed for life?” said Gabriel Calzada, an economist and professor at Rey Juan Carlos University in Madrid.

Spanish law forces distributors to buy all clean energy produced in the first 25 years of a plant’s life and resell it to consumers. With little oil and lots of sun, Spain is betting the sacrifice will pay off as fossil fuels get more expensive and need costly emission permits under global-warming treaties.

Forty-two percent of power bills, or 95 euros ($127) for every Spaniard, will cover subsidized clean energy in 2009, the ministry estimates.

‘Heavy Price’

“We’re all paying a heavy price for green power,” said Calzada, an opponent of subsidies.

The government raised rates in May 2007 for solar thermal plants, which concentrate sunlight to make steam for power generation. They now earn about 300 euros a megawatt-hour, seven times the average rate coal- or natural gas-fired plants got this year.

A megawatt-hour supplies about 1,500 Spanish homes for an hour, or about half as many homes in the U.S.

“The guarantee is more attractive than what other countries offer,” said Karsten von Blumenthal, an industrial analyst at Hamburg-based SES Research GmbH. “Actually the U.S. has better space for solar, in the deserts of California and Nevada.” Still, the combination of U.S. tax credits and grants are a lesser incentive for developers, he said.

Florida to Spain

Spain’s solar deal was interesting enough for Juno Beach, Florida-based FPL to cross the Atlantic and propose two 50- megawatt solar thermal plants. EDF, France’s biggest power company, raised its stake last year to 90 percent in Fotosolar, a Spanish photovoltaic developer. FPL, the largest U.S. producer of wind power, wouldn’t say which subsidy system it preferred.

“I would not define Spain as more or less attractive, rather it is a new opportunity,” Steven Stengel, a spokesman for FPL unit NextEra Energy Resources LLC, said in an e-mailed response. FPL plans two U.S. plants totaling 325 megawatts.

Neither country gets more than 1 percent of power yet from solar thermal or photovoltaic plants, which use a technology that turns sunlight directly into electricity. Spain installed the most of both technologies last year, trade group data shows.

The two nations lead the world in solar thermal projects coming online by 2011, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts- based Emerging Energy Research. About 1,750 megawatts will be switched on in the U.S. by that year and twice that level in Spain, the research firm said in April.

U.S. Momentum

The U.S. now is regaining momentum lost almost 10 years ago when the government “changed policy, leaving solar technology on the shelf,” said Edward Soler, a business development executive for Spanish builder Abengoa SA. During that decade “Spain underwent a learning curve that was aided by a change in regulations” that improved incentives, he said.

Abengoa, which set up a 20-megawatt solar thermal plant near its Seville, Spain, headquarters, plans one 14 times that size, billed as the world’s biggest, about 60 miles outside of Phoenix to feed local utility Arizona Public Service Co.

In the U.S., where President Barack Obama backed increased incentives this year, 6,000 megawatts of solar thermal projects are under way, said Fred Morse, an official at the Washington- based Solar Energy Industries Association trade group.

Promoters in the U.S. must convince utilities to contract their power, a necessary step for most project financing. Also, they may be reimbursed for 30 percent of the plant’s cost through a tax credit or grant and can apply for federal loan guarantees. They earn no special power rate.

The U.S. can’t catch up until more rules on aid are published, Morse said.

Better Incentives

“The incentives, if implemented promptly and effectively, should greatly facilitate the financing of these plants” in the U.S., said Morse, who prepared the first study on solar energy’s potential as a national resource for the White House in 1969.

In Spain, subsidies already spurred local utility Iberdrola SA of Bilbao and Madrid-based builder Acciona SA to become the world’s largest investors in wind, ahead of FPL and EDP-Energias de Portugal SA of Lisbon, with turbines in more than 20 nations.

Premium prices for solar, wind, biomass and co-generation power will cost Spaniards 4 billion euros in 2009, the National Energy Commission regulator estimates.

Developers also have come for the Mediterranean sun, which has attracted foreign retirees since the 1960s and fueled Europe’s biggest vacation-home market. The sun shines 2,800 hours a year in much of Andalucia. The southern region, home to British vacation favorite Malaga, now harbors solar plants by Abengoa, Acciona and builder Sacyr Vallehermoso SA of Madrid.

Photovoltaic Boom

Acciona and Heliosolar of Navarra, Spain, are among a group of developers that switched to solar thermal after doing photovoltaic projects. In two years, so many photovoltaic plants were rushed online that the Spanish government tightened rules for eligibility. For solar thermal, an unlimited number of licenses will be given out until at least 2011.

Developers bank on Spain continuing to force utilities Endesa SA, Iberdrola and Gas Natural SDG SA to buy all alternative energy produced. On especially windy or sunny days, they must ramp down coal- or natural gas-burning plants.

Acciona was one developer that began investing before its main business, construction, was hurt when the Spanish housing boom went bust in recent years, and as oil prices rose. Acciona has a solar-thermal plant in Nevada and five projects in Spain.

“All the investment in clean energy in the European Union grew from the summer of 2004, when Brent passed $40 a barrel and was giving clear price signals of a tension that wasn’t going to go away,” said Tomas Diaz, spokesman for the Spanish Photovoltaic Industry Association.

20 Billion Euros

Spain’s premium price paid to photovoltaic plants drew in 20 billion euros of investment in those projects in about one year, before the government made the terms less generous in 2008, the trade association’s Diaz said.

“Cash poured in since 2007 as investors fleeing the subprime crisis in the U.S. looked for a safe haven for their money,” Diaz said.

Even the U.S. insurer American International Group Inc., bailed out last year by the Federal Reserve, bought 300 megawatts of solar plants in Spain that it has since sold.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gianluca Baratti in Madrid at gbaratti@bloomberg.netTodd White in Madrid at twhite2@bloomberg.net


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Oil Set to Break Resistance Point, PVM Says: Technical Analysis

By Grant Smith

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to reach $62.65 a barrel “in the near future” and rally to $78 within six months as prices retrace the surge that started in 1998, according to technical analysis by PVM Oil Associates Ltd.

Oil is on the brink of breaking through resistance indicated by its climb from a low of $10.35 in December 1998 to an all-time peak of $147.27 last July, PVM said. If oil reaches $62.65, that is equivalent to 38.2 percent of the 10-year rally, a milestone in the “Fibonacci” sequences that suggests additional gains are likely, according to the London-based firm.

“I’m certain we’ll get to the first correction point at $62.65 in the near future,” PVM Director Robin Bieber said by telephone. “The market has been moving into a position from where it can start to attack the higher correction points.”


Oil for June delivery traded as high as $58.57 yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the most since Nov. 17.

Gains of 38.2 percent and 50 percent are significant in the so-called Fibonacci sequence, technical analysts say. They use the ratios, sometimes known as the golden mean, to find points of support or resistance as prices retrace rallies or declines.

PVM forecast March 26 that oil would fall to $48.55 a barrel after prices failed to close above their five-day moving average. Crude prices declined to that level two days later.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net




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Shell Withdraws Alaska Well Project Amid Opposition

By Fred Pals

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, has formally withdrawn a three-year plan for exploration in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea because of environmental issues.

“The 2007-2009 plan of exploration no longer represents Shell’s current drilling objectives,” The Hague-based Shell said in an e-mailed statement today. “Additionally, Shell will file a 2010 plan of exploration that reflects Shell’s current drilling plans for Camden Bay,” the company added in the statement.

Environmental groups and local villagers claimed that drilling in the Beaufort Sea might harm the whales and fish that Inupiat native Alaskans depend on. The U.S. Court of Appeals in San Francisco in November threw out the Interior Department’s approval of the project. The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington said last month that plans to allow drilling in the current program were approved without adequate review of the effects.


Shell, which re-entered Alaska in 2005 after it abandoned the area in 1998, has said it invested $200 million in the project to drill wells in the sea. The U.S. Minerals Management Service in July 2005 awarded Shell 84 leases in the Beaufort Sea.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fred Pals at fpals@bloomberg.net




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AES Net Income Falls on Lower Power Sales, Prices

By Mark Chediak

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- AES Corp., the U.S. power producer and distributor with operations in more than two dozen countries, said first-quarter profit fell 6.4 percent on lower electricity sales and prices.

Net income declined to $218 million, or 33 cents a share, from $233 million, or 34 cents, a year earlier, Arlington, Virginia-based AES said today in a regulatory filing.

Profit excluding quarterly adjustments to the value of contracts used to lock in prices or currency rates and one-time items was 37 cents, 13 cents higher than the average of three analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profit on that basis was 35 cents a year earlier, AES said.

AES rose 97 cents, or 12 percent, to $9.11 at 10 a.m. on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock has five buy ratings from analysts and two holds.

First-quarter revenue fell 17 percent to $3.38 billion. AES owns or operates 132 power plants worldwide with generating capacity of 43,000 megawatts. Its utilities deliver power to 11 million homes and businesses.

(AES’s conference call started at 10 a.m. New York time, accessible on the company’s Web site at http://www.aes.com.)

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Chediak in San Francisco mchediak@bloomberg.net.





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Eni, StatoilHydro Get Go-Ahead for Arctic Development

By Marianne Stigset

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Eni SpA, Italy’s biggest energy company, and StatoilHydro ASA got approval from Norway’s government to develop the country’s first Arctic oilfield.

The recommendation for the Goliat field, 85 kilometers (52 miles) northwest of Hammerfest on Norway’s northern tip, will be sent to parliament for approval, Oil and Energy Minister Terje Riis-Johansen said in Oslo today. The project is estimated to cost in excess of 28 billion kroner ($4.3 billion).

“The Barents Sea will be an important part of Norway’s petroleum industry going forward,” he said at a press conference. “We have a development in the Norwegian petroleum industry where oil production is falling. It’s falling fast.”

Norway, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, is opening more of its unexplored north to drilling as oil output sinks in the North Sea. Goliat, discovered in 2000, is estimated to hold 174 million barrels of oil, the government said today.

Eni is the operator and owns 65 percent, while StatoilHydro holds the rest. Should the parliament give approval, construction will start next year and production in 2013, according to an Impact Assessment Plan. The field is expected to be in production for 15 years, the ministry said.

Open For Exploration

StatoilHydro rose 3 kroner, or 2.2 percent, to 139.5 kroner as of 3:12 p.m. in Oslo, the third consecutive day of gains. Eni rose 58 cents, or 3.5 percent, to 17.27 euros.

About 25 percent of the recoverable resources on Norway’s continental shelf have yet to be discovered and only about 50 percent is open for exploration, according to the Petroleum Directorate. Norway’s Barents Sea may hold 1.03 billion cubic meters of oil equivalent in undiscovered oil and gas. About 53 percent is gas, equal to about five times Norway’s annual output, according to the directorate.

Norway awarded 21 new exploration licenses last week in the country’s 20th licensing round, including 9 in the Barents Sea, out of which 3 were to Eni. In total, 34 companies were awarded blocks, including Total SA, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Off Limits

State-controlled StatoilHydro is the only producer in the Barents Sea, with the Snohvit gas field.

Norway is keeping parts of the Arctic off limits to protect the environment including areas in the Barents Sea as well as waters off Troms and Finnmark and the so-called Nordland 6 and 7 areas. Helge Lund, StatoilHydro’s chief executive officer, said in January that the best exploration opportunities lie in the Nordland and Troms areas.

The approval of Goliat will have no bearing on a decision whether to allow exploration in the northern areas of Lofoten and Vesteraalen, which is expected in 2010, Riis-Johansen said.

“The Lofoten and Vesteraalen area is special, most notably when it comes to the fishing industry’s interests,” the minister said. “The potential level of conflict is much greater than in other territories.”

Eni in February chose Sevan Marine ASA’s Sevan 1000 floating production, storage and offloading vessel, or FPSO, model for Goliat. The company still has to award contracts for engineering, procurement and construction of the vessel.

The company is holding off on awarding contracts in anticipation of lower service prices, Eni spokesman Jone Stangeland said in February. Producers are cutting costs because of the 60 percent plunge in crude prices since July’s record. Stangeland couldn’t be reached for a comment today.

Goliat’s “costs are at a whole different level than what we’ve seen for other projects” in Norway, Riis-Johansen said. “Therefore the vulnerability to fluctuations in oil prices will be completely different.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Marianne Stigset in Oslo at mstigset@bloomberg.net;





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Repsol Profit Falls 57% on Declining Oil, Gas Prices

By Gianluca Baratti

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Repsol YPF SA, Spain’s largest oil company, said first-quarter profit fell 57 percent as crude and natural-gas prices declined and production dropped.

Net income slid to 516 million euros ($692.6 million) from 1.21 billion euros a year earlier, the Madrid-based company said today in a regulatory filing. Net adjusted for recurring items sank 59 percent to 401 million euros, beating the 333 million- euro median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Repsol and competitors Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc and Total SA, Europe’s three largest oil companies, have reported lower quarterly earnings as the recession curbed energy demand. U.S. oil prices averaged $43.31 a barrel in the period, 56 percent lower than a year earlier, while U.S. natural-gas futures were down 49 percent.

Profit beat estimates because Repsol benefited from currency gains and lower-than-expected taxes, Jason Kenney, head of pan-European oil and gas equity research at ING Wholesale Banking, said in an e-mailed note. The company’s tax rate was 39.5 percent in the period, below the 42 percent forecast by ING.


Repsol rose as much as 2.5 percent to 15.40 euros in Madrid trading, and was up 2.2 percent at 15.35 euros as of 11:01 a.m. local time, valuing the company at 18.8 billion euros.

Refining Margin Drops

Repsol’s refining margin, or the profit from turning crude into fuels, fell 13 percent to $4.60 a barrel in the quarter, mainly because of narrower middle-distillate spreads and a smaller difference between light and heavy oils, the company said. Earnings from the liquefied natural gas business dropped 7.8 percent to 284 million euros.

Refining, marketing and LNG operations “underperformed forecasts,” Kenney said. “LNG saw lower Spanish electricity prices and a drop in sales to Spanish combined-cycle gas turbines as well as tighter margins,” the Edinburgh-based analyst wrote. Kenney recommends retaining Repsol shares.

Repsol’s oil and gas production slumped 4.8 percent from a year earlier to 317,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. Adding output from the company’s Argentine YPF SA unit, production fell 4.9 percent. YPF, which is 84 percent owned by Repsol, reported a 59 percent drop in first-quarter net income on May 6.

Repsol’s net income adjusted for inventories retreated 28 percent to 1.33 billion euros. The company recorded an inventory loss of 23 million euros in the quarter, compared with an inventory gain of 274 million euros a year earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gianluca Baratti in Madrid at gbaratti@bloomberg.net


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Oil Rises as Fewer Job Losses Signal Economy Is Stabilizing

By Mark Shenk

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose, heading for the biggest weekly gain since March, after a report showed that the U.S. cut fewer jobs in April, a signal that the worst of the recession has passed and fuel consumption may rebound.

Oil prices are up 8.3 percent this week as reports on U.S. home sales and manufacturing in China boosted optimism about the economy and after U.S. crude-oil supplies rose less than forecast. Payrolls fell by 539,000, after a 699,000 loss in March, the Labor Department said today in Washington. A loss of 600,000 jobs was forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

“Clearly, the better-than-expected jobs number supports the recent rally that’s been based on early signs of an economic recovery,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global Inc. in New York. “There is a natural skepticism that comes with this rally because the fundamentals of the oil market are so poor.”

Crude oil for June delivery rose 88 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $57.59 a barrel at 10:23 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are poised for the largest weekly gain since the week ended March 20. Yesterday, oil closed at $56.71, the highest settlement since Nov. 14.

Gasoline also rose after Exxon Mobil Corp. shut a unit that produces the fuel at its Baton Rouge, Louisiana, refinery, the second-largest in the U.S. Gasoline for June delivery climbed 1.31 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $1.6786 a gallon in New York.

U.S., European and Asian stocks increased after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said results of the government’s review of the banking industry’s health “should provide considerable comfort.”

Risk Appetite

“As increasing risk appetite pushes equity markets higher, sentiment in the oil market has become quite optimistic,” said Eliane Tanner, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. “The momentum could take us to $60, but we’re skeptical about the short-term fundamentals while U.S. demand remains so weak.”

U.S. crude supplies rose 605,000 barrels to 375.3 million last week, the highest since 1990, an Energy Department report on May 6 showed. A 2.5 million-barrel increase was forecast by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Total daily fuel demand averaged 18.2 million barrels in the four weeks ended May 1, down 7.9 percent from a year earlier, the department said. It was the lowest consumption level for a four-week period since May 1999.

“Prices were divorced from the market fundamentals last year and we are seeing that again,” Kilduff said. “We will have to take out $60 and see if the market recalibrates to reflect the fundamentals.”

Oil surged to a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 on concern that rising demand in China, India and other emerging economies would outpace production.

‘Consistent Run’

“Oil is maybe moving to a higher trading range, pushing through what looked like a key resistance level of $55 a barrel,” according to technical analysis by PVM Oil Associates Ltd.

Futures climbed from a low of $10.35 a barrel in December 1998 to its peak in July. If oil reaches $62.65, that is equivalent to 38.2 percent of the 10-year rally, a milestone in Fibonacci technical analysis studies that suggests additional gains are likely, according to the London-based PVM.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is likely to extend its record production cut when the group meets in Vienna on May 28, Mehr news agency reported, citing Ali Khatibi, the Iran’s OPEC governor.

Brent crude oil for June settlement rose 78 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $57.25 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.


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Peru, Chile Lower Rates, Say More Cuts May Be Ahead

By Sebastian Boyd

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Chilean and Peruvian central bank policy makers cut lending rates and signaled they are prepared to carry out further reductions in a bid to spark consumer spending and fend off the effects of a global economic slump.

Peru’s bank cut its benchmark interest rate 1 percentage point to 4 percent late yesterday, the fourth consecutive monthly reduction. Chile trimmed borrowing costs by half a point to 1.25 percent, a record low.

Chile and Peru are acting to spur growth as the global financial crisis undercuts demand for their exports and curtails spending at home. Other regional central banks may follow suit with more aggressive rate cuts in a bid to fend off recession, said Alfredo Coutino, director of Latin America at Moody’s Economy.com Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

“All the countries in Latin America are being hit strongly by the international recession, and now they are trying to synchronize monetary policy with fiscal stimulus,” Coutino said. “The first two central banks doing this are Chile and Peru and the rest of the central banks in Latin America are going to have to be more aggressive in coming months.”

The International Monetary Fund predicts that Latin American and Caribbean economies may shrink a combined 1.5 percent this year. As gross domestic product falls, concerns that inflation may accelerate are abating, giving policy makers more room to cut rates.

Consumer prices in Chile have dropped for five of the previous six months, and Peru’s monthly inflation is near a two- year low. Meanwhile, Chile’s economy is shrinking at the fastest pace in more than a decade and Peru’s economic growth has fallen to the lowest in eight years.

Government Spending

Chile plans to spend at least $4 billion in government savings on tax breaks and subsidies to fuel growth. Peruvian Finance Minister Luis Carranza plans to spend $3 billion on a stimulus plan designed to spark domestic consumption.

Chile has trimmed borrowing costs by 7 percentage points this year, more than any other central bank rate tracked by Bloomberg, while Peru has trimmed 2.5 points from its key rate.

Elsewhere in the region, Brazil’s central bank lowered the so-called Selic target rate by 3.5 percentage points this year to 10.25 percent and the Colombian central bank lowered its overnight rate by 3.5 percentage points to 6 percent.

Mexico has cut borrowing costs by 2.25 percentage points to 6 percent. The central bank, led by Governor Guillermo Ortiz, will probably lower its benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage point to 5.25 percent on May 15, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Rate Outlook

Peru’s central bank said yesterday that it will keep easing monetary policy as long as inflation and domestic demand keep slowing and the global economy gets worse. Chile’s rate-setting committee yesterday said it “doesn’t rule out that it may be necessary to reduce the monetary-policy rate again.”

After expanding 9.8 percent in 2008, Peru’s economy has stalled, growing just 0.2 percent in the year through February, the slowest pace in eight years.

Falling commodity prices may cut economic growth to 4 percent in 2009, according to Peru’s Finance Ministry.

Prices of copper, zinc, tin and silver, which account for 60 percent of Peru’s export revenue, have all dropped at least 22 percent since early July on declining demand. Exports fell for a sixth month in March, slumping 23 percent, according to state exporter association ComexPeru.

Chile’s decline in mining output and slowing consumer demand are shrinking the economy by the most in a decade. The economy contracted 0.7 percent in March from a year ago, a fifth straight monthly decline. It fell 3.9 percent in February, the deepest year-on-year contraction since 1999.

Commodity Exports

Copper, Chile’s biggest export, has fallen 47 percent since reaching a record $4.08 a pound in July. The value of exports from Chile slumped 40 percent in April from a year earlier.

Industrial production fell 7.1 percent in March from a year earlier, less than the 11.5 percent annual decline in February.

Retail sales fell 3.5 percent in March from a year earlier and purchases of durable goods such as washing machines and cars slumped 12.3 percent, the sixth month that durable goods sales have fallen, according to the statistics institute.

“In Chile you’ll have a recession; in Peru it’s a severe deceleration from a very high level,” said Alberto Ramos, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.

Chile’s peso appreciated 0.4 percent against the U.S. dollar as of 10:37 a.m. in New York to 562.80 pesos. So far this year it is the best-performing of 26 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

The Peruvian new sol rose for the fifth straight day, appreciating 0.3 against the U.S dollar to 2.9555 per dollar.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sebastian Boyd in Santiago at sboyd9@bloomberg.net





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Canada’s Dollar Rises to Highest Since November on Jobs Reports

By Chris Fournier

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s currency rose to a six-month high after the nation’s employers unexpectedly added jobs last month and U.S. payrolls fell less than forecast, adding to signs the economic slowdown may be moderating.

Canada’s “employment is showing strong resilience,” said Firas Askari, head currency trader in Toronto at BMO Nesbitt Burns, a unit of Bank of Montreal. “The caveat is, don’t read too much into any single number, wait for the trend to clearly show itself. Obviously this is loonie supportive in the short term and I think any U.S. dollar rallies will be sold into.”

The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, appreciated 1.1 percent to C$1.1576 per U.S. dollar at 9:23 a.m. in Toronto, from C$1.1699 yesterday. One Canadian dollar buys 86.38 U.S. cents. The currency touched C$1.1572, the strongest level since Nov. 5.

The unemployment rate held at 8 percent as employers added a net 35,900 workers in April after a reduction of 61,300 in the previous month, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists predicted employment would fall by 50,000, according to the median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Canada’s dollar extended gains after a Labor Department report showed U.S. payrolls fell by 539,000 in April. Employers were forecast to cut 600,000 jobs.

The currency has gained 6.9 percent since April 23, the day Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said he wouldn’t immediately print money to buy debt assets and spur growth. The policy, known as quantitative easing, is typically seen as diluting a currency.

‘No Additional Measures’

“The better data certainly suggests the bank can rest a little easier as far as its policy stance goes for the moment,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist in Toronto at TD Securities Inc., a unit of Canada’s second-largest lender. “For the next few months, it looks like no additional measures from the Bank of Canada.”

The loonie, which rallied before today’s report on speculation the data would be better than expected, is poised for its sixth weekly gain, the longest winning streak since November 2007, as investors venture into higher-yielding assets such as stocks and commodity-linked currencies.

Canada’s dollar will weaken to C$1.22 against its counterpart by year-end, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 39 economists.

Canadian government securities dropped, with the yield on the 10-year rising eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage points, to 3.23 percent, the highest since Dec. 1. The 3.75 percent security due in June 2019 fell 68 cents to C$104.55.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net





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Dollar Falls to One-Month Low as Jobs Data Pare Safety Demand

By Oliver Biggadike and Ye Xie

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar declined to a one-month low against the euro as a government report showed U.S. employers cut fewer jobs last month than economists forecast, reducing demand for the safety of the greenback.

The yen slid versus all but one of the 16 most actively traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg and touched a seven-month low against Australia’s dollar this week as evidence the recession is easing spurred demand for higher-yielding assets.

“The prevailing flow now is negative for the dollar, negative for the yen, positive for the commodity-linked currencies and higher yielders,” said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in New York. “Right now the report is given a positive spin by the market. The market is grabbing on the green-shoot rally.”

The dollar lost 0.6 percent to $1.3476 versus the euro at 8:49 a.m. in New York, from $1.3390 yesterday. It touched $1.3506, the weakest level since April 6. The U.S. currency traded at 99.08 yen, compared with 99.12. The euro increased 0.6 percent to 133.48 yen, from 132.71.

U.S. companies eliminated 539,000 jobs in April after a decrease of 699,000 in the previous month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a drop of 600,000. The unemployment rate increased to 8.9 percent.

The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, fell 0.7 percent this week to 83.390.

Applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped to 601,000 in the week ended May 2, the least since late January, the Labor Department reported yesterday. Productivity rose at a 0.8 percent annual rate from January through March, after a 0.6 percent decrease in the fourth quarter.

Dollar Versus Yen

The dollar appreciated against the yen on April 3, when the U.S. government reported job losses that were close to economists’ forecasts.

The yen dropped 4.5 percent to 59.21 versus the New Zealand dollar and 3.9 percent to 75.37 against the Australian dollar this week on bets the worst of the global recession may be over, prompting investors to get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher.

Japan’s currency touched 75.75 versus the Aussie yesterday, the weakest level since Oct. 7. The Bank of Japan’s target lending rate of 0.1 percent compares with 3 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand.

The yen dropped 9 percent against the dollar this year after touching 87.13 in January, the strongest since 1995.

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest automaker, forecast a second straight annual loss as the global recession curbed demand for new cars and a stronger yen eroded the value of dwindling overseas sales.

ECB’s Decision

The European Central Bank cut the key interest rate to a record low of 1 percent yesterday and unveiled a plan to buy 60 billion euros ($81 billion) in covered bonds. President Jean- Claude Trichet told reporters in Frankfurt the purchase of debt is a “credit easing.”

Covered bonds, known as Pfandbriefe in Germany, are secured by property loans or lending to public-sector institutions and differ from mortgage-backed securities because they’re also supported by a borrower’s pledge to pay. They have traditionally been considered among the safest bonds available, allowing lenders to pay less interest.

To contact the reporters on this story: Oliver Biggadike in New York at obiggadike@bloomberg.net; Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net





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Rio Says China’s Steel Demand Shows Recovery Signs

By Stephanie Wong

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third- largest mining company, said China’s steel and iron ore demand is recovering because of the nation’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus spending.

Monthly steel production has exceeded 40 million metric tons for both March and April, Anthony Loo, managing director of the company’s China unit, said today in Shanghai. That’s helping to drive imports of iron ore, he said.

Rio, BHP Billiton Ltd. and other iron ore producers are betting that a revival in Chinese steel demand would bolster prices for their products. Crude steel output gained 1.4 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said last month.

“It’s still too early to see the effect in the longer term,” Loo said. “We hope the demand will be sustainable.”

China’s steel prices are heading for the third straight week of gains on signs of demand recovery in the automobile industry. China is spending 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) on a stimulus packing to reach an economic growth target of 8 percent this year.

Hunan Valin Iron & Steel Group, the Chinese steelmaker which bought 17.3 percent of Fortescue Metals Group ltd., said today there’s a “low-level” recovery in steel demand.

Domestic prices of hot-rolled coil, an industry benchmark, have gained 3.6 percent to 3,491 yuan a ton as of yesterday from 3,369 yuan on April 17, according to the Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.

Rio Tinto is still in talks with Baosteel Group Corp., the nation’s biggest mill, to agree on benchmark iron ore prices for the year started April 1, Loo said. He didn’t give details.

Iron ore is used to make steel.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephanie Wong in Shanghai at swong139@bloomberg.net


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Oil Set for Biggest Weekly Gain in 2 Months Before Jobs Report

By Grant Smith

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a third day in New York, heading for the biggest weekly gain since March before a report forecast to show that the U.S. cut fewer jobs in April.

Oil prices are up 8.5 percent this week after economic data indicated the worst of the global recession is over. Analysts predict the payroll report due today at 8:30 a.m. in Washington will show a loss of 600,000 jobs last month, down from 663,000 in March, according to a Bloomberg survey. Asian and European equities rose, extending the week’s gain to 4.5 percent.

“As increasing risk appetite pushes equity markets higher, sentiment in the oil market has become quite optimistic,” said Eliane Tanner, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. “The momentum could take us to $60, but we’re skeptical about the short-term fundamentals while U.S. demand remains so weak.”

Crude oil for June delivery rose as much as $1.28, or 2.3 percent, to $57.99 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $57.96 at 11:52 a.m. London time. Oil, poised for the largest gain since the week ended March 20, is up 29 percent this year. Yesterday, oil closed at $56.71, the highest settlement since Nov. 14.

Gasoline rose to the highest in six months after Exxon Mobil Corp. temporarily shut down a unit that produces the fuel at its Baton Rouge refinery, the second largest in the U.S. Gasoline for June delivery rose as high as $1.7049 a gallon today on the Nymex, the highest since Nov. 5.

Economic reports this week showed fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits, and U.S. refiners boosted operating rates last week to their highest level since December.

‘Consistent Run’

“Oil is maybe moving to a higher trading range, pushing through what looked like a key resistance level of $55 a barrel,” according to technical analysis by PVM Oil Associates Ltd.

Oil climbed from a low of $10.35 in December 1998 to an all-time peak of $147.27 last July. If oil reaches $62.65, that is equivalent to 38.2 percent of the 10-year rally, a milestone in the “Fibonacci” sequences that suggests additional gains are likely, according to the London-based PVM.

Stocks in Europe and Asia and U.S. index futures rose as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said results of the government’s review of the banking industry’s health “should provide considerable comfort.”

U.S. refineries increased their utilization by 2.7 percentage points to 85.3 percent last week ahead of the peak driving demand season this summer, the Energy Department said in a May 6 report.

‘Healthy Driving Season’

“With gasoline prices lower than last year, you’d think we’d have a more healthy driving season,” said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. “You can argue that people will drive more because it’s a cheaper form of travel. Directionally we’re coming into a stronger demand season.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is likely to extend its record production cut when the group meets in Vienna on May 28, Mehr news agency reported, citing Ali Khatibi, the Iran’s OPEC governor.

OPEC has completed about 83 percent of an unprecedented series of supply reductions announced since September that total 4.2 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency.

Brent crude oil for June settlement rose as much as $1.33, or 2.4 percent, to $57.80 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $57.75 a barrel at 11:50 a.m. London time.

To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net


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U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index Climbs, Extends Weekly Rise; RBS Advances

By Adam Haigh

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks gained, extending this week’s rally on the FTSE 100 Index, after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said results of the government’s review of the banking industry’s health should reassure investors.

Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. led raw-material producers higher as metals prices climbed in London. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc rose 5.5 percent after it reported increased revenue.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index rose 69.72, or 1.6 percent, to 4,468.4 at 8:38 a.m. in London, bringing this week’s gain to 5.3 percent. The FTSE All-Share Index added 1.5 percent today and Ireland’s ISEQ Index gained 2.7 percent.

The FTSE 100 index has soared 27 percent from its March 3 low on optimism the worst of the global recession may be over. Economic reports this week showed consumer confidence in the U.K. jumped by the most in almost two years, while private employers in the U.S. cut fewer jobs than estimated in April.

A measure of bank shares on the FTSE 350 Index extended this week’s rally to 13 percent as Bernanke said the government’s review of the banking industry’s health “should provide considerable comfort.”

They were “breathtaking figures,” said David Buik, a markets analyst at inter-dealer broker BGC Partners in London. “This rally is incredible. It amazes me that such gargantuan numbers can be digested by the market with a shrug of the shoulders,” he told Bloomberg Television.

Manic Miners

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third biggest mining company, climbed 2.7 percent to 3,101 pence. BHP Billiton, the largest, gained 2.1 percent to 1,544 pence. Copper gained 1.3 percent on the London Metals Exchange.

Royal Bank of Scotland added 11 percent to 46 pence. Revenue at the biggest U.K. bank controlled by the government rose 26 percent to 9.7 billion pounds ($14.4 billion).

The bank, which is 70 percent-owned by the government, has gained 73 percent in London trading in the past three months, making it the second-best performer in the FTSE 350 Banks index, after Barclays Plc.

Taylor Wimpey Plc soared 26 percent to 46 pence after the homebuilder said it was selling about 510 million pounds in shares to help pay down debt.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net.


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Stocks in Europe, Asia, U.S. Futures Rise; BNP, Citigroup Gain

By Sarah Jones

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- European and Asian stocks and U.S. index futures rose as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said results of the government’s review of the banking industry’s health “should provide considerable comfort.”

Deutsche Bank AG and BNP Paribas SA climbed more than 3 percent, while Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. jumped at least 9 percent in early New York trading. U.S. banks need to raise a total of $74.6 billion in capital, a finding that Bernanke said should reassure investors about the soundness of the financial system. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc soared 13 percent as the lender reported higher revenue on “exceptional” growth at its global banking division.

The MSCI World Index added 0.5 percent to 938.63 at 10:52 a.m. in London, extending its weekly gain to 4.7 percent. The gauge of 23 developed countries has surged 36 percent since March 9 as earnings at companies from Credit Suisse Group AG to Ford Motor Co. beat estimates and optimism grew that the U.S. plan to purchase of illiquid assets from banks will pull the global economy out of its first recession since World War II.

"$75 billion is not a bad number, it is more or less what the market had been expecting,” said Marino Valensise, chief investment officer at Baring Asset Management Ltd. in London. “We probably have another 5 to 10 percent in this rally before things start to stabilize.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1.1 percent to 917. The benchmark index for U.S. equities lost 1.3 percent yesterday before the results of the so-called bank stress tests were released.

Europe, Asia

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index rose 1.6 percent, bringing its weekly advance to 4.7 percent, the eighth gain in nine weeks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent.

A report today showed German exports unexpectedly grew for the first time in six months in March, adding to signs a slump in Europe’s largest economy is bottoming out.

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, climbed 4 percent to 41.43 euros, while BNP, France’s biggest, advanced 3.6 percent to 46.64 euros. Italy’s UniCredit SpA increased 5.1 percent to 2.09 euros.

“There’s certainly still a feeling of cautious optimism out there after the total capitalization call by the Fed for US banks came in at ‘only’ $75 billion,” said London-based Matt Buckland, a dealer as CMC Markets.

The Fed’s report on the health of the 19 largest U.S. lenders showed that losses at the banks under “more adverse” conditions than most economists anticipate could total $599.2 billion over two years.

Citigroup, Bank of America

Citigroup climbed 12 percent to $4.28 in pre-market trading as the Fed said the bank needs $5.5 billion in additional capital. Bank of America, determined to require $33.9 billion, gained 9 percent to $14.73.

Royal Bank of Scotland, which today reported a first- quarter loss of 857 million pounds ($1.29 billion), rallied 13 percent to 47.1 pence. The British bank posted a 26 percent jump in first-quarter revenue to 9.7 billion pounds, lifted by “exceptional” growth at its global banking and markets securities unit.

Swiss Reinsurance Co., the world’s second-biggest reinsurer, surged 12 percent to 36.76 Swiss francs after Bank of America Corp. raised its recommendation for the shares to “buy” from “neutral.”

3i Group Plc jumped 17 percent to 396 pence. The U.K.’s largest publicly traded private-equity firm said it plans to raise about 700 million pounds in a rights offering after debt climbed and the value of its investments slumped.

Taylor Wimpey

Taylor Wimpey Plc surged 11 percent to 40.75 pence after the U.K. house builder that last week completed a financial rescue deal also announced plans to raise capital. The company said it will raise 510 million pounds selling shares to pay down debt and slash interest costs.

Luxottica Group SpA jumped 12 percent to 16.18 euros as the world’s biggest eyewear maker posted a 23 percent drop in first- quarter net income to 80.4 million euros ($108 million), beating analysts’ estimates. The company also said sales were improving.

U.S. employers probably cut fewer jobs in April as signs emerged that the worst of the recession had passed, economists said before a government report today.

Payrolls fell by 600,000 after a 663,000 drop in March, according to the median estimate of 70 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The unemployment rate still jumped to a 25-year high of 8.9 percent last month, the survey showed, and probably won’t start retreating until an economic recovery is secured.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.


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U.S. Commercial Bank Stocks Upgraded to ‘Overweight’ at UBS

By Sarah Jones

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. commercial bank stocks were upgraded at UBS AG to “overweight,” following the U.S. government’s review of the banking industry.

Analysts raised their recommendation for the nation’s commercial lenders from “underweight,” saying they were now “more confident in the strength of banks, especially commercial banks.”

UBS shifted its preference from U.S. diversified financials, downgrading the stocks to “equal-weight” from “overweight.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said results of the government’s review of the banking industry’s health “should provide considerable comfort.” The findings showed U.S. banks need to raise a total of $74.6 billion in capital.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.





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Cemex, Telecom Argentina, Petrobras: Latin Equity Preview

By Hugh Collins

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes today in Latin American trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses and share prices reflect the previous close.

The MSCI Latin America Index fell 1.5 percent to 2,762.57 In Brazil, preferred shares usually are the most-traded class of stock.

Argentina

Telecom Argentina SA (TECO2 AF): Argentina’s antitrust agency has sent two so-called observers to monitor Telecom Argentina, the country’s second-largest telephone company said in a filing with Argentina’s securities regulator. The regulator is examining whether Telefonica SA’s participation in Telecom Italia violates Argentine anti-monopoly rules. Telefonica and Telecom Italia control Argentina’s two biggest phone companies. Telecom Argentina fell 2.1 percent to 7.35 pesos.

Brazil

Gerdau SA (GGBR4 BZ): Latin America’s biggest steelmaker was cut to “neutral” from “buy” at UBS AG, which said the company reported “disappointing” first-quarter earnings. The stock fell 5 percent to 17.91 reais.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4 BS): Brazil’s state- controlled oil company may sign an agreement to borrow from China Development Bank Corp. this month, China’s Ambassador to Brazil Qiu Xiaoqi, told reporters in Brasilia. In February, Petrobras, as the Brazilian company is known, agreed to take a $10 billion loan from China Development Bank to be used for general corporate purposes and to help pay for a $174.4 billion, five-year investment plan. Petrobras fell 1.8 percent to 31.98 reais.

Chile

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM/B CC): Chile’s biggest fertilizer maker expects demand for lithium to increase next year as General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. start using the material in car batteries. Toyota will begin putting lithium in batteries used in its Prius hybrid vehicles, Patricio de Solminihac, a deputy manager of Soquimich, as the company is also known, said yesterday at a conference in Santiago. He said GM will employ similar technology in its electric-powered Volt car starting next year. Soquimich fell 0.5 percent to 18,500 pesos.

Multiexport Foods SA (MULTIFOO CC): The salmon producer reported a first-quarter loss of $21 million compared with a $2 million deficit a year earlier, it wrote in a statement on its Web site. The company is negotiating with lenders to restructure debt, according to the statement. Multiexport Foods rose 3.1 percent to 50 pesos.

Mexico

Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB (WALMEXV MM): Mexican consumer confidence rose to 82.1 in April from 79.4 in March, the national statistics agency said on its Web site. Economists had estimated confidence would fall to 78.1, according to the median of 12 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Wal-Mart de Mexico, Latin America’s largest retailer, fell 0.8 percent to 38.92 pesos.

Cemex SAB (CEMEXCPO MM): The largest cement maker in the Americas was cut to “sell” from “hold” at Citigroup Inc., which cited the “weaker” operating outlook for the company and the rally in the shares. The stock fell 3.1 percent to 13.09 pesos.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hugh Collins in Mexico City at Hcollins8@bloomberg.net


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VIX Futures Show Traders Boosting Bets on End to S&P 500 Rally

By Jeff Kearns

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are increasing wagers that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 34 percent rally in the past two months is coming to an end.

Futures on the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index are priced above the gauge’s level of 33.44, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The so-called VIX, which measures the cost of using the options as protection against market declines, has dropped 16 percent this year in CBOE trading.

Dealers are charging more for insurance after better-than- estimated corporate profits at companies ranging from American Express Co. to Ford Motor Co. and economic reports on home sales and durable goods sent the S&P 500 to its steepest eight-week rally since 1938. Now, the so-called term structure shows higher prices for VIX futures for the next six months.

“It’s fascinating, I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Dean Curnutt, president of Macro Risk Advisors LLC, a New York-based brokerage that specializes in equity options. “You’ve never seen the VIX term structure so high and so flat at the same time.”

Investors surveyed by Macro Risk Advisors expect the VIX to jump to as much as 51.70 by year end, more than double the 20.09 average of its 19-year history. The index won’t fall below 28.1 and the S&P 500 will end the year at 834, according to the average estimates in Curnutt’s survey of 75 money managers and traders at hedge funds, insurance companies and pensions.

The S&P 500’s rally restored more than $2 trillion to U.S. equity markets. The U.S. benchmark index remains 42 percent below its record 1,565.15 reached Oct. 9, 2007.

Lehman Collapse

Options are contracts that give the right though not the obligation to buy or sell a security at a set price and date.

The VIX never exceeded 50 before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in September. It topped 40 after WorldCom Inc.’s bankruptcy in 2002, the September 2001 terrorist attacks, Long- Term Capital Management’s collapse in 1998 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

The U.S. volatility benchmark, derived from S&P 500 contracts that expire in 30 days, climbed for the first time in a week yesterday, adding 3.1 percent. The VIX has averaged 42.68 so far this year.

May futures rose 1.8 percent to 33.65 yesterday. All contracts expiring by November gained at least 0.2 percent while the difference between the highest and lowest futures contracts was 0.65 point. The S&P 500 declined 1.3 percent to 907.39.

“That’s really unusual,” said Ben Londergan, co-chief executive of Group One Trading, the primary market maker for VIX options. “People are saying, ‘Whatever happens today is setting my expectations for the year.’”

November Record

The VIX has retreated 59 percent since soaring to a record 80.86 on Nov. 20. This year, it hasn’t dropped below the levels it reached when Bear Stearns Cos. collapsed in March 2008 and Lehman failed six months later. The measure closed at 32.24 after the Federal Reserve helped New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. buy Bear Stearns and 31.70 when Lehman folded in the world’s biggest bankruptcy.

“People are still nervous about the direction of the market, and they believe we’ll remain in a high-volatility environment,” said Samer Nsouli, chief investment officer at Lyford Group International, a New York-based hedge fund that oversees $65 million. Nsouli said he’s using options and futures to wager U.S. stocks will drop.

Jobless claims dropped by 34,000 to 601,000 in the week ended May 2, the Labor Department said yesterday. That’s still higher than 98 percent of all weekly reports since 1967, according to an analysis by Bespoke Investment Group LLC, a Harrison, New York-based firm that manages money for wealthy investors and provides financial research to institutions.

“There remains an abundance of caution,” said Carl Mason, head of U.S. equity derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas in New York. “People are worried about the rest of the year and we do see people buying longer-dated volatility and longer-dated options.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net.


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U.S. Stock-Index Futures Climb on Stress Tests; Citigroup Gains

By Daniela Silberstein

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures climbed, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will extend its second straight week of gains, after the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said results of the bank stress test “should provide considerable comfort.”

Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. rallied at least 9 percent in pre-market trading in New York. Ten lenders need $74.6 billion in new capital, a result Bernanke said should reassure investors about the soundness of the financial system. Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, and Exxon Mobile Corp. rose in Europe with higher metal and crude oil prices. Investors will also watch a report that may show employers cut fewer jobs last month as signs emerged the worst of the recession had passed.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in June added 1 percent to 916.40 as of 11:03 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased 0.9 percent to 8,459. Nasdaq-100 Index futures rose 0.5 percent to 1,401.75. European and Asian shares also climbed.

“The market is looking at the glass half full and is glad that the stress test is over,” said Rudolf Buxtorf, who manages about $114 million at RBS Coutts Bank in Zurich. “Sooner or later the situation had to improve and investors are more positive on the future. We had overstretched the bow to the downside.”

The S&P 500 yesterday dropped from a four-month high before the stress-test results as financial, telephone and technology companies retreated. The measure, which has risen 34 percent from a 12-year low in March, this week erased its loss for 2009 as reports on home sales and manufacturing in China boosted confidence the global recession is easing.

Citigroup Gains

Citigroup climbed 12 percent to $4.28 in New York after the Fed said it needs $5.5 billion in additional capital. Bank of America, determined to require $33.9 billion, gained 9 percent to $14.80. Fifth Third Bancorp, Ohio’s largest lender, soared 19 percent to $6.37 as the central bank said it must raise $1.1 billion.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. climbed 4.3 percent to $36.77 in pre- market trading in New York, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. gained 2.7 percent to $137.36 in Germany. The two banks passed stress tests without needing fresh capital.

Analyst at UBS AG upgraded U.S. commercial bank stocks to “overweight” from “underweight” after the government’s review of the industry.

Alcoa added 2 percent to $10.05 in German trading. Copper rose in London, heading for a second straight weekly advance, amid speculation demand will rebound. Aluminum, zinc and nickel also gained.

Economy Watch

Exxon, the world’s largest oil company, increased 1.2 percent to $69.72. Crude oil rose for a third day in New York, poised for the biggest weekly gain since March, on signs the economy may be starting to recover.

Payrolls fell by 600,000 after a 663,000 drop in March, according to the median estimate of 70 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The unemployment rate still jumped to a 25-year high of 8.9 percent last month, the survey showed. The Labor Department report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

Another report scheduled for 10 a.m. may show wholesale inventories in March dropped 1 percent, following a 1.5 percent decline in the prior month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net.


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VIX Futures Show Traders Boosting Bets on End to S&P 500 Rally

By Jeff Kearns

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are increasing wagers that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 34 percent rally in the past two months is coming to an end.

Futures on the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index are priced above the gauge’s level of 33.44, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The so-called VIX, which measures the cost of using the options as protection against market declines, has dropped 16 percent this year in CBOE trading.

Dealers are charging more for insurance after better-than- estimated corporate profits at companies ranging from American Express Co. to Ford Motor Co. and economic reports on home sales and durable goods sent the S&P 500 to its steepest eight-week rally since 1938. Now, the so-called term structure shows higher prices for VIX futures for the next six months.

“It’s fascinating, I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Dean Curnutt, president of Macro Risk Advisors LLC, a New York-based brokerage that specializes in equity options. “You’ve never seen the VIX term structure so high and so flat at the same time.”

Investors surveyed by Macro Risk Advisors expect the VIX to jump to as much as 51.70 by year end, more than double the 20.09 average of its 19-year history. The index won’t fall below 28.1 and the S&P 500 will end the year at 834, according to the average estimates in Curnutt’s survey of 75 money managers and traders at hedge funds, insurance companies and pensions.

The S&P 500’s rally restored more than $2 trillion to U.S. equity markets. The U.S. benchmark index remains 42 percent below its record 1,565.15 reached Oct. 9, 2007.

Lehman Collapse

Options are contracts that give the right though not the obligation to buy or sell a security at a set price and date.

The VIX never exceeded 50 before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in September. It topped 40 after WorldCom Inc.’s bankruptcy in 2002, the September 2001 terrorist attacks, Long- Term Capital Management’s collapse in 1998 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

The U.S. volatility benchmark, derived from S&P 500 contracts that expire in 30 days, climbed for the first time in a week yesterday, adding 3.1 percent. The VIX has averaged 42.68 so far this year.

May futures rose 1.8 percent to 33.65 yesterday. All contracts expiring by November gained at least 0.2 percent while the difference between the highest and lowest futures contracts was 0.65 point. The S&P 500 declined 1.3 percent to 907.39.

“That’s really unusual,” said Ben Londergan, co-chief executive of Group One Trading, the primary market maker for VIX options. “People are saying, ‘Whatever happens today is setting my expectations for the year.’”

November Record

The VIX has retreated 59 percent since soaring to a record 80.86 on Nov. 20. This year, it hasn’t dropped below the levels it reached when Bear Stearns Cos. collapsed in March 2008 and Lehman failed six months later. The measure closed at 32.24 after the Federal Reserve helped New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. buy Bear Stearns and 31.70 when Lehman folded in the world’s biggest bankruptcy.

“People are still nervous about the direction of the market, and they believe we’ll remain in a high-volatility environment,” said Samer Nsouli, chief investment officer at Lyford Group International, a New York-based hedge fund that oversees $65 million. Nsouli said he’s using options and futures to wager U.S. stocks will drop.

Jobless claims dropped by 34,000 to 601,000 in the week ended May 2, the Labor Department said yesterday. That’s still higher than 98 percent of all weekly reports since 1967, according to an analysis by Bespoke Investment Group LLC, a Harrison, New York-based firm that manages money for wealthy investors and provides financial research to institutions.

“There remains an abundance of caution,” said Carl Mason, head of U.S. equity derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas in New York. “People are worried about the rest of the year and we do see people buying longer-dated volatility and longer-dated options.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net.





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