Economic Calendar

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Wakeup Call: Stocks Were Rejected Yesterday At New Highs. Will We Have A Retest Today?

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Aug 26 09 06:49 GMT |

Despite the generally positively surprising data, stocks were rejected at new highs. The O/N market development suggests that risk-willingness is still intact with the JPY and US-T and CDS/Itraxx down

Calendar

Economic Data Releases
Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment
GE 08:00 IFO – Business Climate (AUG) 89.0 87.3
US 12:30 Durable Goods Orders (JUL) 3.0% -2.5% We expect 1.5%
US 14:00 New Home Sales MoM (JUL) 1.6% 11.0%

Earnings Data Releases
Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment
BE 13:40 Dexia SA 0.230

UK - Tullow Oil PLC 0.030

UK - Antofagasta PLC 0.252

What's going on?

Yesterday's US figures were somewhat better than expected. The home price data showed some signs of stabilization with the S&P/Case-Shiller Quarterly HPI showing the first QoQ INCREASE since H1-2006. This increase, however, was not corroborated by the FHA and NAR price data. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence was at 54.1 – higher than expected (47.9).

Despite the generally positively surprising data, stocks were rejected at new highs. The O/N market development suggests that risk-willingness is still intact with the JPY, Treasuries and CDS/Itraxx down and AUD holding up relatively well.

FX

FX Daily stance Comment
EURUSD 0 Ranging 1.4250-1.4330. German IFO may see breakout either way but 1.45 still caps
EURJPY 0 Likely to trade a tight 134.20-135.20 range
USDJPY 0/- 94.30-50 seen capping for a slow retracement back to 93.50 suppt.
GBPUSD 0 1.6275 looks key suppt for rebound to 1.64. Sell break below, else 1.63-64 range
AUDUSD 0 Likely ranging between 0.8330-0.8400. await breakout

Equities

Equities Daily stance Comment
DAX 0/+ Buy around 5540 targeting 5575. S/L below 5525.
FTSE 0/+ Buy around 4900 targeting 4935. S/L below 4882.
S&P500 0/+ Buy around 1022 targeting 1033. S/L below 1018.
Nasdaq100 0/+ Buy around 1630 targeting 1644. S/L below 1620.
Dow Jones 0/+

Futures

Commodities Daily Stance Comment
Gold 0/+ Buy around 945 and target 956. Stop below 940.
Silver 0/+ Buy at the break of 14.50 and target 14.80. Stop above 14.30.
Oil 0/+ Buy on dips towards 70.50 and target 73. Stop below 69.30

FX Options

FX- Options

Comment

EURUSD Buyers still looking for short dated EUR calls and market seems to be looking for a clear break through 1.44 shortly. A bounce back towards 1.42 should see vols ease again.
USDJPY Mainly quiet session with vols coming in heavy. Unlikely to see risk reversals or vols spike unless we break under 9200. Back end remains well supported.
AUDUSD Vols are softer as spot continues to trade inside established ranges. Few bid seen over the 9 day (nonfarm) but mostly sellers out the middle of the curve.

Saxo Bank

Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer

Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained.

Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment.

If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations.

The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time.

In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis.

Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.


Read more...

Forex Market Update: Risk Appetite Again Fails To Soar After More Positive Data Yesterday

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Aug 26 09 06:45 GMT |

The German IFO and US new home sales the major focus data-wise today

HEADLINES - PREVIOUS SESSION

  • US Jun. S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index out at -15.44% vs. -16.4% expected and -17.02% prior
  • US Aug. Consumer Confidence out at 54.1 vs. 47.9 expected and revised 47.4 prior
  • US Aug. Richmond Fed Index out at 14 vs. 16 expected and 14 prior
  • US Jun. House Price Index out at 0.5% m/m, -0.7% q/q vs. 0.4%/-0.4% expected and 0.6%/-0.5% prior
  • US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence out at -45, as expected, vs. -46 prior
  • JP Jul. Trade balance out at ¥380.2 bln vs. ¥390 bln expected and ¥507.5 bln prior
  • JP Jul. Exports out at -36.5% y/y vs. -38.4% expected and -35.7% prior
  • JP Jul. Imports out at -40.8% y/y vs. -42.4% expected and -41.9% prior
  • AU DEWR Aug. Skilled Vacancies out at +1.0% vs. revised -0.8% prior
  • AU Q2 Construction Work Done out at -0.1% vs. -3.0% expected and revised -2.2% prior
  • JP Aug. Small Business Confidence out at 41.8 vs. 41.1 prior
  • SI Jul. Industrial Production out at +12.4% y/y, +23.0% m/m vs. -1.0%/+7.1% expected and -9.0% prior

THEMES TO WATCH - UPCOMING SESSION

  • GE Import Price Index (0800)
  • Sweden Manufacturing/Consumer Confidence (0700)
  • GE IFO Indices (0800)
  • Norway Unemployment (0800)
  • US MBA Mortgage Applications (1100)
  • US Durable Goods Orders (1230)
  • US New Home Sales (1400)
  • US Fed's Lockhart to speak (1610)

Market Comments

The data out of the US was on the strong side last night but risk appetite was not able to feast on the positive data. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was firmer at 141.86 vs. 139.91 while the US consumer confidence number came in at 54.1, much stronger than the 47.6 expected and 46.6 previously, while later the weekly ABC consumer confidence indicator was more tepid, holding steady at -45. The strong consumer confidence number appeared in stark contrast to the weak Michigan sentiment index reading reported just ten days ago but we will likely have to wait to see which prevails.

The initial reaction to the firmer data conformed to the usual norms i.e. equities higher and the dollar lower, but the risk rally soon ran out of steam and most currencies retreated back lower. The CAD was especially soft on the retreat, pressured by a 3% fall in crude oil prices after attempts to break the $75 level proved unsuccessful and industry data showed a hefty rise in crude stocks. A 1.48% fall in the Reuters-Jeffries CRB Index also did not help the situation. In addition, BOC Deputy Governor Lane commented that there were encouraging signs that Canada will return to positive growth in Q3.

With regard to the CHF, the Swiss national Bank's Jordan was on the wires with more verbal intervention on the CHF's level, saying they will fight a CHF appreciation decisively - EURCHF and USDCHF both pushed higher from the lows.

So Asia returned with currencies at similar levels to yesterday, once again risk appetite failing to encourage a breakout from recent ranges despite a series of strong data suggesting that should be the case. What will it take to finally breakout (in either direction!)? As a result, Asian activity was again confined to tight ranges even though equity markets were in a bullish mood.

On the data front, the second-tier Australian data continued to confirm a rosier picture. Job vacancies increased by 1.0% in August, the first monthly rise since November 2007 and across all three major occupational groups. This could be a sign that the Australian labour market remains resilient and may have seen the worst. Watch out for the next unemployment release scheduled for September 10. The second minor data release showed construction work slipping at a slower pace in Q2, down 0.1% q/q.

In contrast, the data out of Japan disappointed. July trade was extremely sluggish and appeared to contradict the global recovery/consumption story. Exports were down 36.5% y/y, deeper than June's 35.7% fall, and on a month-by-month basis recorded a 1.3% decline, the first in two months. On a slightly positive note, imports were higher for the first time in four months, though one suspects more a result of higher prices than higher volumes.

In the news overnight, a poll of UK Business leaders reported in the Independent shows them more upbeat about economic recovery prospects than at any time since recession began. 38% of those polled thought there were signs of recovery in their particular sector, an increase from 33% last month, while 50% saw no evidence of a revival (in fact the lowest figure to date). GBP paid no attention to the report. What about the Bank of England?

Ahead in Europe we will see German import prices and Swedish confidence indicators but the spotlight will be grabbed by the German IFO readings. With good new building across the globe, markets are again looking for an improvement in all three readings, though we again are doubtful this will provide enough impetus for the EUR to break higher. Later in the US we will see durable goods orders and new home sales, the latter possibly the final piece in the jigsaw of recovery?

Saxo Bank

Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer

SaxBank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by SaxBank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis dnot occur as anticipated.

SaxBank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. SaxBank accepts nresponsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained.

Any recommendations and other comments in SaxBanks analysis derive from objective fundamental macreconomical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment.

If an analysis contains recommendations tbuy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as SaxBanks opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared tthe market. SaxBanks recommendations should statistically correspond tan even distribution between buy and sell recommendations.

The recommendations may expire promptly due tmarket volatility and in general, SaxBank does not anticipate its recommendations tbe valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant tthe analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. SaxBanks analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which SaxBanks strategy team finds it important tcover at any given point in time.

In order tprevent conflicts of interest, SaxBank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable tresearch and analysis tensure objective research reports. SaxBanks research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis.

SaxBank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. SaxBank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, SaxBanks employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, dnot receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.



Read more...

Daily Technical Outlook

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Innerfx | Aug 26 09 06:31 GMT |

EURUSD

The euro has been relatively quiet against the dollar on yesterday, its rally from the 1.4250 region has been capped at 1.4360 and the daily bar has closed a few points below the open rate. The pair trades into the same region as 24 hours ago therefore we look at the same support and resistance levels. While the intra-day sentiment is slightly bearish, the short-term momentum remains positive as the current bullish structure is under development. Extended pullbacks may reach lows below yesterday's bottom but the 1.4210 and 1.4170 level will probably limit such losses. On the upside, first intra-day barrier is formed by a descending trend line coming from 1.4445, now seen into the 1.4350 region. Above 1.4350 comes 1.4375 and 1.4445/50. The German Ifo Business Climate Index at 9:00 GMT may be a good catalyst on pushing the Euro higher. Current quote is 1.4305 @06:10 GMT

Support: 1.4250, 1.4210 and 1.4170
Resistance: 1.4350, 1.4375 and 1.4445/50

USDJPY

Another day on testing 94.00, yet another day closing a few points higher - while the 94.00 mark provides a stable support, with its goods and its bads such as the few spikes below down to 93.40, the signs of a potential dollar recovery against the Yen are quite obvious. 95.00 has to be taken out in order to confirm the beginning of a correction. While 95.00 is intact, expect more pressure on the support region around the 94.00 handle. Intra-day sentiment is positive at the time of writing this and first target is set at 94.60. A break above should open 95.00 which is were the key resistance stands. Current quote is 94:25 @06:10 GMT

Support: 94.00, 93.40/50 and 93.00
Resistance: 94.50/60, 95.00 and 95.50/70

GBPUSD

Channel's support into the 1.6300-1.6330 zone is under pressure as the cable has reached a fresh low at 1.6305 a bit earlier today. A potential break down below the said bottom line could confirm a reversal of the current medium term uptrend. Another channel is formed on the hourly charts, but on the opposite direction (downwards), as seen on the hourly chart below. A break above the resistance band around 1.6385, out of the hourly channel, should favor further gains towards 1.6500, into a 'safe zone' far from the notable support of 1.6300/30. Current quote is 1.6342 @06:10 GMT

Support: 1.6300/30, 1.6250 and 1.6200
Resistance 1.6385/00, 1.6450 and 1.6500

Innerfx

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

InnerFX and/or its author(s) shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment or trading decision based on any recommendation, forecast, strategy or other information herein contained. The contents of this article should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by InnerFX and/or its author(s) that readers and subscribers will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations / strategy in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as Foreign Exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated. Trading in the Currency Exchange market is a challenging opportunity where above average returns are available to educated and experienced investors who are willing to take above average risk. Past performance does not guarantee similar performance in the future. Check http://www.innerfx.com/disclaimer for full disclaimer. You may not post this (or part of this) article to forums, newsgroups, mailing lists, electronic bulletin boards, websites, or other services, without the prior written consent of InnerFX.

Read more...

Forex Technical Update

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | Aug 26 09 06:44 GMT |

Rupee: Rupee bounced back from 48.40 levels as expected . The bias still remains weak for a target of 49.20 plus. Exporters can start booking around 48.85 - 49 levels . Bearish. (USD/INR : 48.80)

Euro :Euro has broken the 1.4320 levels and picked up momentum again. Immediate term bias slightly bullish since it could not break 1.40 support levels . We have to be careful since all the charts are overbought. The weekly trend which determines the medium term view of euro would be broken ONLY once euro stays below 1.3852. (EUR/USD 1.4300)

Sterling : Pound is holdiing below its weekly trendline resistance at 1.6450, look at selling at uptiks. Only a break of 1.6200-1.6250 would confirm a trend reversal for the pair and target 1.58 again. (GBP/USD 1.6328) . Neutral

Yen has again entered the weekly triangle consolidation pattern between 92 to 98 levels. Risk aversion and Risk appetite has been playing sea-saw since last couple of months. The triangle pattern is very much visible within the weekly range. Buy at dips close to 93 and sell at 97-98 levels remains the strategy. (USD/JPY 94.30) Rangebound

Aud :Aud maintain the bullish bias , immediate strategy would be to buy on dips.Only a continous move below 0.8150 would break the trendline and stand bearish for the pair. (AUD/USD -0.8370) In Correction Mode.

Gold : Gold has also seen correction lately.Bullish only above 960 dollar otherwise rangebound.(Gold- $947.16). Rangebound.

Dollar Index :The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) broke the 78.23 support. It suggests that rebound from 77.43 is possibly in corrective three wave structure which in turn indicates that whole medium term fall from 89.62 is not completed yet. Nevertheless we would expect a very strong support near 76 levels and bring a reversal. We need a break of 79.51 is needed to revive the case that dollar index has bottomed out.(Dollar Index - 78.27).

India Forex
http://www.indiaforex.in

DISCLAIMER

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.


Read more...

Technical Analysis for Crosses

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com | Aug 26 09 06:26 GMT |

GBP/JPY

The pair finally succeeded to breach the daily bullish trend line of the ascending channel, supporting the short term Elliott sequence discussed during the past days -check it here-. The pair is offering the probability of forming a double top formation. Hence we keep the short term and intraday basis to the downside. RSI 14 bullish channel has been broken and AROON is signaling a bearish sign.

Trading range for today is among key support at 149.70 and key resistance at 159.35.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 167.40 remains intact with target at 116.00.

Support: 153.00, 152.30, 151.60, 151.00, 150.00
Resistance: 154.30, 155.10, 155.85, 156.70, 157.35

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair from 154.30 targeting 151.60 and stop loss above 156.40 might be appropriate

EUR/JPY

The pair has formed a shooting star candlestick pattern which we see will be able to assist the pair to breach the harmonic bullish trend line in order to activate the short term bearish scenario of Elliott sequence, particularly after the breakout which occurred to the bullish momentum trend lines. Hence we keep our overview to the downside on the intraday basis. A break of 134.15 will accelerate the negative scenario.

Trading range for today is among key support at 130.00 and key resistance now at 137.30.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.

Support: 134.15, 133.60, 133.00, 132.50, 131.50
Resistance: 135.25, 135.70, 136.65, 137.00, 137.30

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair from 134.80 targeting 132.60 and stop loss above 136.40 might be appropriate.

EUR/GBP

The royal pair has reached the second suggested target of the harmonic bullishness at 0.8760 areas. Now, a slight correction is urgently needed to relieve the indicators and we think that this downside correction will be limited around 0.8700 -0.8720 but it will not affect the major bullish scenario. A break of 0.8780 will delay this correction and will bring an upside rally resumption towards the extreme target of the harmonic structure at 0.8905 [161.8% Fibonacci expansion].

Trading range is among the key support at 0.8600 and key resistance now at 0.8860.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.

Support: 0.8720, 0.8700, 0.8670, 0.8615, 0.8585
Resistance: 0.8790, 0.8820, 0.8875, 0.8905, 0.8930

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair from 0.8725 targeting 0.8820 and stop loss below 0.8650 might be appropriate.

Ecpulse

disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk


Read more...

South Korea Must Keep Expansionary Policy, Yoon Says

By Shinhye Kang

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea needs to maintain its expansionary policy until the economy “substantially recovers,” Finance Minister Yoon Jeung Hyun said.

“There is a risk that the economy may fall into a double dip if the government shifts the stance of policy too fast,” Yoon said at a meeting with business executives today. “It’s premature to discuss the timing of an exit strategy.”

Yoon also said the gain in second-quarter gross domestic product may be revised higher. South Korea’s economy last quarter expanded at the fastest pace since 2003, leading a regional economic rebound with China and Singapore.

The Bank of Korea, which cut the key rate by 3.25 percentage points between October and February, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Aug. 11 at a record-low 2 percent. The reductions were the most aggressive easing since the bank began setting a policy rate a decade ago.

The government allocated extra funds and spent 68 percent of this year’s budget through July in an effort to frontload expenditure and boost the economy.

“South Korea’s economy has gradually improved, but it is too early to say that the trend will continue as there are still many uncertainties,” Yoon said today. “We need to have a ‘wait-and-see’ strategy and keep active monetary and fiscal policies until the economy substantially recovers.”

Yoon also said the country’s housing market isn’t overheating.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shinhye Kang in Seoul at skang24@bloomberg.net.




Read more...

Australian Rates Hang on Consumer Strength, RBA’s Corbett Says

By Jacob Greber and Heidi Couch

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Australian interest-rate increases will be determined by the strength of consumer spending and economic growth as government stimulus measures are withdrawn, Reserve Bank board member Roger Corbett said.

“There will certainly be a turn-up in the fullness of time, and interest rates will need to go up,” Corbett, 66, who is also a director of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., said in an interview yesterday. “What level they go up to will depend on circumstances at the time.”

Consumer spending helped Australia avoid a recession after the government distributed more than A$20 billion ($17 billion) in cash to households following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Central bank policy makers said last week their decision on when to raise borrowing costs from a half-century low will need to balance the risk of fueling inflation with prematurely killing off confidence and demand.

“How consumer demand holds up in light of no consumer stimulus” will be “one of the determining factors in how quickly our economy in Australia recovers,” said Corbett, one of nine members of the central bank’s policy-setting board and a former chief executive officer of Woolworths Ltd., the nation’s biggest retailer.

Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said this month that policy makers will have to raise the overnight cash rate target from its “emergency” level at some stage as the economy rebounds from the global recession.

‘Normal Level’

A more normal level for the overnight cash rate target is “a good deal north” of the current 49-year low of 3 percent, Stevens said on Aug. 14. Policy makers slashed the benchmark rate between September and April by a record 4.25 percentage points.

Asked to speculate about what the Reserve Bank’s “neutral” rate is, Corbett said: “That’s up to the governor, but his general comment that we’re at traditionally low levels, and through time they will go up, is patently obvious.”

Traders forecast the central bank’s overnight cash rate target will be 169 basis points higher in 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index based on interest-rate swaps at 4:52 p.m. in Sydney yesterday. At the start of July, they tipped 63 basis points of gains.

“We’ve been very fortunate in Australia; we’ve only had one negative quarter” of gross domestic product, Corbett said in the interview at his Sydney office overlooking the city’s harbor. “And I’d be quite surprised if we have another.”

Economic Growth

GDP unexpectedly rose 0.4 percent in the first quarter, rebounding from its first contraction in eight years in the previous three months, as lower borrowing costs and government stimulus stoked domestic demand. Second-quarter figures will be published on Sept. 2.

While there “is always a risk of a double dip” in growth, “I’m pretty confident that in Australia the fundamentals are starting to look very promising,” Corbett said. “We’re starting to see much more confidence in consumer demand.”

Consumer confidence jumped this month to the highest level in almost two years and retail sales rose 2 percent in the second quarter.

“How we perform without the stimulus will be one of the litmus tests of how well our recovery is going,” particularly between now, Christmas and Easter, Corbett said.

There will come a time in Australia and the rest of the world when “constraint will be necessary,” he added.

“And that restraint in most occasions will be needed before” a full global recovery emerges. “It’ll probably be needed whilst unemployment is still rising.”

‘Surprisingly Good’

Australia’s jobless figures have “been surprisingly good,” rising less than the government forecast this year, Corbett said. The unemployment rate held at 5.8 percent last month as employers unexpectedly added 32,200 workers.

The government predicted in May that the unemployment rate will peak at 8.5 percent next year.

“Let’s hope that those upper-end figures are not reached, and I think there’s good reason they won’t be,” Corbett said.

“The fundamental reasons Australia has done so well are two-fold; our banking system” is sound, “and then, of course, there is demand from China for our minerals,” he added.

Corbett also said the nation’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index of stocks, which has climbed 38 percent since March, is an “early indicator of recovery.”

“The fact the stock market has done sustainably well over the last three or four months is a very positive effect for the economy,” he said.

While the “world has a fair way to go yet in the recovery phase,” the next “wave of inflation is in effect being sown now.”

Corbett, who is also deputy chairman of newspaper publisher Fairfax Holdings Ltd., has been a member of the Reserve Bank’s board since December 2005.

To contact the reporters for this story: Jacob Greber in Sydney at jgreber@bloomberg.netHeidi Couch in Sydney hcouch@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

South Korea’s Consumer Confidence Climbs to Seven-Year High

By Seyoon Kim

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s consumer confidence climbed to the highest level in almost seven years in August as government spending and record-low interest rates helped drive the nation’s economic recovery.

The sentiment index rose to 114 from 109 in July, the Bank of Korea said in Seoul today. The figure is the highest since the third quarter of 2002, when the bank began publishing its confidence survey on a quarterly basis. An index figure of more than 100 indicates optimists outnumber pessimists.

South Korea’s economy expanded 2.3 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in almost six years as exports and household spending increased. In an effort to cushion the economy from the global recession, the government allocated extra funds and also frontloaded spending this year.

The central bank pared the benchmark interest rate by 3.25 percentage points between October and February, the most aggressive easing in a decade. The Kospi stock index has surged 42 percent this year.

Sales at the nation’s major department stores rose for a fifth month while factory production rose at the fastest pace in four months in June.

The consumer confidence index was based on a survey of 2,200 households in 56 major cities, conducted by mail and telephone between Aug. 12 and 19.

To contact the reporter on this story: Seyoon Kim in Seoul at skim7@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Singapore Production Unexpectedly Rises on Pharmaceutical Gains

By Shamim Adam

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s industrial production unexpectedly rebounded in July, recording the biggest gain in 16 months as pharmaceuticals output surged.

Manufacturing, which accounts for about a quarter of Singapore’s economy, rose 12.4 percent from a year earlier following a revised 9 percent decline in June, the Economic Development Board said today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of nine economists was for a 1 percent drop.

Singapore raised its 2009 forecast for exports this month, predicting overseas shipments may drop a less-than-expected 10 percent to 12 percent as global demand improves. The government has said the recent improvement in drugs and electronics output may falter, preventing a quick recovery from the country’s deepest recession since independence 44 years ago.


“The positive effects of the recovery in the global economy should cascade down to the exports-oriented manufacturing sector fairly quickly,” said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “Continued improvement in this sector is expected in the coming months, although downside risks remain in the sustainability of the current surge in the pharmaceutical industry.”

Industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 23 percent in July from the previous month, when it slid a revised 9 percent.

Singapore’s purchasing managers’ index showed manufacturing expanded for a third straight month in July. Export orders and output gained last month, including those for electronics, according to an Aug. 4 report by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management.

Economic ‘Storm’

Singapore raised its 2009 economic forecast July 14, after the manufacturing industry posted its best performance in five quarters in the three months to June. The island’s economy has stabilized after an unprecedented “storm” earlier in the year, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said this month.

Electronics production fell 5.6 percent from a year earlier last month, following a revised 19.2 percent decline in June. Electronics make up about 26 percent of total manufacturing output, and shipments of such products have dropped every month for more than two years.

Pharmaceutical production, which accounts for about 20 percent of manufacturing, surged 139.2 percent after gaining a revised 12 percent in the previous month. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, production contracted 7.4 percent in July, after shrinking a revised 13.8 percent in June.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net




Read more...

Iceland’s Krona Is Undervalued by Market, Gudmundsson Says

By Omar R. Valdimarsson

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland’s krona is undervalued even after the country imposed capital restrictions to prevent a sell-off and following 11 consecutive months of trade surpluses, new central bank Governor Mar Gudmundsson said.

“The exchange rate of the krona is currently well below reasonable estimates of the medium-term equilibrium rate,” said Gudmundsson, 55, who took over on Aug. 20. “The significant trade surplus that we’ve seen in past months hasn’t been enough to counter the effects of other outflows and the pressures from foreign holders of krona-denominated assets.”

Gudmundsson, former deputy head of the monetary and economy department at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, aims to guide the western nation hardest hit by the credit crisis to recovery. Capital controls, imposed last year to halt a sell-off of the krona after Iceland’s biggest banks failed, didn’t prevent a 8.2 percent slump against the euro this year. The island relies on an international bailout to avoid default.

“The Monetary Policy Committee will always have to take the value of the krona” into consideration, Gudmundsson said in an interview in Reykjavik yesterday.

As of Aug. 21, the bank, or Sedlabanki, had intervened three times to support the krona, compared with 10 interventions in July and 19 in June, according to Islandsbanki hf. The krona is the third-worst performer of the 26 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg since the end of March.

Erode

“The krona has started to erode once more, which is a cause for considerable concern in view of the situation of Icelandic companies and households,” Ingolfur Bender, an economist at Islandsbanki, said in a note to clients last week.

Household debt as a percentage of disposable income stood at 272 percent on average at the end of last year, with about a fifth of that in foreign currencies, according to Islandsbanki.

Sedlabanki kept the benchmark interest rate on hold at 12 percent at its Aug. 13 meeting. Svein Harald Oygard, who was interim governor after the government removed David Oddsson in February, said there remained a “strong case” against lowering rates and higher rates couldn’t be ruled out should the krona need extra support.

The bank’s main challenge is to “find opportunities to bring down interest rates with domestic economic circumstances in mind without putting pressure on the exchange rate of the krona and at the same time start the process of removing capital controls,” Gudmundsson said.

‘Advisable’ Euro

Iceland will ease the restrictions starting on Nov. 1 in two main stages. In the first, foreign-currency inflows linked to new investments will be exempt from the restrictions. The second will target foreign-exchange outflows, though the central bank will block short-term holdings.

Iceland last month cleared the first procedural hurdle to joining the European Union after EU foreign ministers called on the European Commission to prepare an assessment of the island’s prospects for membership. Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir has said membership, with euro adoption an ultimate goal, will help Iceland avoid a repeat of last year’s financial collapse.

“I’m not certain that the krona is right for Iceland in the long run,” Gudmundsson said. “Running an independent monetary policy at the same time as we are economically and financially integrated with the rest of the world is difficult and it’s therefore advisable to look into participating in a monetary union; but the decision is of course a political one.”

Systemic Failure

The three biggest banks failed in October after they were unable to secure short-term funding following a debt-financed boom that saw their balance sheets swell to more than 10 times the size of the economy. Creditors of the failed lenders are still waiting to recoup as much as $80 billion in debt. The island turned to a group led by the International Monetary Fund in October for a $5.1 billion loan.

The four biggest banks, Kaupthing Bank hf, Landsbanki Islands hf, Glitnir Bank hf and Straumur-Burdaras Investment Bank hf, passed stress tests set by the Financial Supervisory Authority less than two months before the collapse. Their finances were “solid” and able to “withstand considerable financial shocks,” the FSA said then.

Gudmundsson said regulation linked to the functioning of an economy should be steered by the central bank rather than a separate regulator.

“I’m more inclined to favor that issues that have to do with systemic risk should be dealt with by the central bank,” Gudmundsson said. “We have limited manpower and financial resources and therefore I’m more inclined to believe that prudential supervision should be moved from the FSA to the central bank, or, alternatively, we could merge these two institutions.”

Iceland’s economy will contract 9.1 percent in 2009 as household spending falls 19.7 percent and investment slumps 48.4 percent, the central bank said on Aug. 13.

To contact the reporter on this story: Omar R. Valdimarsson in Reykjavik valdimarsson@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Home Sales, Goods Orders Probably Rose as U.S. Economy Advanced

By Shobhana Chandra

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new houses and orders for long-lasting goods in the U.S. probably increased in July as the rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s broadened, economists said before reports today.

New-home purchases rose 1.6 percent to a 390,000 annual pace, the highest level in eight months, according to the median forecast of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Bookings for durable goods may have jumped 3 percent, the most since the economic slump began in December 2007.

The gains indicate Federal Reserve efforts to thaw credit markets together with the Obama administration’s “cash-for- clunkers” program and tax credits for first-time homebuyers are boosting demand. Builders and factories, which have cut a combined 3.3 million jobs during the recession, may keep growing in coming months as sales improve and inventories drop.

“We have an economy that’s on the mend,” said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “The stimulus is clearly having a good impact. Both housing and manufacturing are looking better.”

The Commerce Department’s report on new-home sales is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from 365,000 to 420,000. Sales jumped 11 percent in June, the most in almost nine years, to reach an annual pace of 384,000.

The department’s figures on durable goods are due at 8:30 a.m. The projected increase would follow a 2.2 percent decrease in June.

Auto Production

General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. are among automakers that plan to expand output in the second half after the government’s cash incentive lifted sales. Minus transportation equipment, bookings for goods meant to last several years probably rose 0.9 percent for a third consecutive gain.

The Standard & Poor’s builder supercomposite index has gained 40 percent since the end of June as evidence mounted that the housing-market slump was easing.

Home sales are responding to policy efforts such as an $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers, the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates near zero, and its purchases of mortgage- backed securities to free up funding for housing loans.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who led the biggest expansion of the central bank’s power in its 95-year history to stem the economic slide, was nominated to a second term yesterday by President Barack Obama. In a speech last week, Bernanke said “economic activity appears to be leveling out.”

‘Slow’ Recovery

“The prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good,” Bernanke said on Aug. 21 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The recovery will be “relatively slow at first.”

Risks to a sustained rebound include a jobless rate that’s forecast to reach 10 percent by early 2010 and mounting foreclosures. By driving down prices, distressed properties compete with new houses, hurting construction.

Even so, the housing crisis is abating. The S&P/Case- Shiller national home-price index, released yesterday, rose 2.9 percent in the second quarter from the prior three months, the first increase since 2006 and the biggest in almost four years.

Existing home sales advanced in July to the highest level in almost two years, boosted by lower prices, buyer incentives and near-record-low borrowing costs, data from the National Association of Realtors showed last week.

While accounting for only about 7 percent of the housing market, new-home purchases are considered a timelier indicator because they are based on contract signings. Sales of previously owned homes, which make up the remainder, are compiled from closings and reflect contracts signed weeks or months earlier.

“We’re likely not to experience a lot of downside from here,” Pulte Homes Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard Dugas said last week. Even so, it could remain a “tough environment for a while.”

Pulte this month completed its purchase of Centex Corp., the first large combination of publicly traded homebuilders since the housing recession began.


                        Bloomberg Survey

===============================================================
Durables Durables New Home New Home
Orders Ex-Trans Sales Sales
MOM% MOM% ,000’s MOM%
===============================================================
Date of Release 08/26 08/26 08/26 08/26
Observation Period July July July July
---------------------------------------------------------------
Median 3.0% 0.9% 390 1.6%
Average 3.0% 0.7% 391 1.8%
High Forecast 8.0% 2.0% 420 9.4%
Low Forecast 0.7% -0.9% 365 -5.0%
Number of Participants 72 42 71 71
Previous -2.2% 1.6% 384 11.0%
---------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. 5.5% 2.0% 395 2.9%
Action Economics 3.5% -0.9% 395 2.9%
AIG Investments 1.0% 0.2% 380 -1.0%
Aletti Gestielle SGR 3.8% --- 400 4.2%
Ameriprise Financial Inc 3.5% 1.1% 390 1.6%
Argus Research Corp. 0.9% --- 385 0.3%
Banesto 2.8% --- 400 4.2%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 0.8% --- 387 0.8%
Bantleon Bank AG 3.4% -0.2% 380 -1.0%
Barclays Capital 4.0% --- 385 0.3%
BBVA 2.2% 0.6% 410 6.8%
BMO Capital Markets 3.0% 1.0% 388 1.0%
BNP Paribas 3.0% --- 390 1.6%
Briefing.com 2.8% 0.4% 380 -1.0%
Calyon 3.0% 1.0% 395 2.9%
Capital Economics 4.2% 1.0% 400 4.2%
CIBC World Markets 4.5% 1.5% 388 1.0%
Citi 1.5% -0.5% 400 4.2%
ClearView Economics 2.5% --- 390 1.6%
Commerzbank AG 4.0% 1.0% 390 1.6%
Credit Suisse 4.0% 1.5% 400 4.2%
Daiwa Securities America 1.5% --- 400 4.2%
Danske Bank --- --- 375 -2.3%
DekaBank 3.3% --- 385 0.3%
Desjardins Group 2.5% --- 380 -1.0%
Deutsche Bank Securities 1.0% 0.5% 390 1.6%
Deutsche Postbank AG 3.5% 1.0% --- ---
DZ Bank 3.4% 1.0% 393 2.3%
Exane 3.0% 0.5% 390 1.6%
First Trust Advisors 8.0% 0.1% 389 1.3%
Fortis 3.0% --- 400 4.2%
FTN Financial 3.0% 1.5% 385 0.3%
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 4.0% --- 380 -1.0%
Helaba 3.0% --- 390 1.6%
Herrmann Forecasting 4.7% 1.0% 394 2.6%
HSBC Markets 2.4% 1.0% 420 9.4%
IDEAglobal 3.0% 1.2% 390 1.6%
IHS Global Insight 5.6% --- 410 6.8%
Informa Global Markets 3.0% --- 375 -2.3%
ING Financial Markets 3.8% 1.3% 400 4.2%
J.P. Morgan Chase 1.5% -0.5% 390 1.6%
Janney Montgomery Scott L 2.9% 0.8% 380 -1.0%
Landesbank Berlin 5.0% 0.1% 395 2.9%
Landesbank BW 2.8% --- 380 -1.0%
Merrill Lynch/BAS 1.8% 1.0% 365 -5.0%
MFC Global Investment Man 1.5% 0.5% 392 2.1%
Mizuho Securities 1.0% --- 373 -3.0%
Moody’s Economy.com 4.0% 0.5% 400 4.2%
Morgan Keegan & Co. 0.7% --- 392 2.1%
Morgan Stanley & Co. 3.7% --- 400 4.2%
National Bank Financial 3.0% 1.0% 400 4.2%
Newedge 2.2% 0.2% --- ---
Nomura Securities Intl. 4.4% 0.5% 388 1.0%
Nord/LB 1.5% 1.0% --- ---
PNC Bank 2.0% --- 395 2.9%
Raymond James 1.8% 0.9% 380 -1.0%
RBC Capital Markets 4.4% 0.4% 389 1.3%
RBS Securities Inc. 3.5% --- 375 -2.3%
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 3.0% --- 395 2.9%
Schneider Foreign Exchang 2.6% 1.4% 379 -1.3%
Scotia Capital 5.0% 1.0% 388 1.0%
Societe Generale 2.5% 0.0% 385 0.3%
Stone & McCarthy Research 4.4% --- 392 2.1%
TD Securities 2.0% 0.8% 390 1.6%
Thomson Reuters/IFR 3.9% 0.9% 395 2.9%
Tullett Prebon 3.0% --- 395 2.9%
UBS Securities LLC --- --- 395 2.9%
UniCredit Research 3.0% --- 390 1.6%
University of Maryland 1.0% --- 395 2.9%
Wells Fargo & Co. 1.9% 0.4% 400 4.2%
WestLB AG 3.0% --- 387 0.8%
Westpac Banking Co. 3.0% --- 396 3.0%
Woodley Park Research 1.0% --- 402 4.7%
Wrightson Associates 3.0% --- 395 2.9%
===============================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Japan’s Exports Tumbled 35.7% in July Amid Weak Global Demand

By Aki Ito and Toru Fujioka

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports fell for a tenth straight month in July as demand from all of the nation’s major markets deteriorated.

Shipments abroad tumbled 36.5 percent from a year earlier, steeper than June’s 35.7 percent drop, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 38.4 percent decrease.

Manufacturers are still reeling from plunging sales of cars and electronics even as the economy emerges from its worst postwar recession. Toyota Motor Corp., Japan’s largest carmaker, said today it will cut domestic production by 220,000 vehicles.

“The U.S. hasn’t quite recovered, and China’s economy looks somewhat shaky too,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “We’re unlikely to see a recovery in exports in the short term.”

The yen traded at 94.01 per dollar at 11:20 a.m. in Tokyo from 94.04 before the report was published and advanced against all 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.64 percent to 10,564.56 after U.S. consumer confidence gained.

Exports may also have been eroded by the yen’s 1.7 percent advance against the dollar in July from June. A stronger yen cuts into exporters’ profits when they are repatriated back into local currency.

Declines in shipments accelerated in all major regions: Exports to China fell 26.5 percent, shipments to the U.S. slid 39.5 percent and those to Europe slumped 45.8 percent, according to today’s report.

Japan’s gross domestic product grew an annualized 3.7 percent last quarter, the first expansion in more than a year, as governments worldwide poured more than $2 trillion into their economies to spur demand.

Cement a Recovery

Prime Minister Taro Aso is struggling to cement an economic recovery as his ruling Liberal Democratic Party trails the opposition Democratic Party of Japan in polls ahead of an Aug. 30 election.

Toyota, which is shutting down an assembly line at its Takaoka plant in central Japan, and Nissan Motor Co. led a ninth straight drop in domestic auto production in June as exports to the U.S. plummeted, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association.

Nippon Steel Corp., the world’s second-largest steelmaker, last month widened its first-half loss forecast by 33 percent.

Not all economists forecast exports will continue to worsen. Robust growth in China, which overtook the U.S. as Japan’s largest overseas customer this year, will support demand, according to Kyohei Morita.

Continue Rising

“We do not believe a drop in exports would mark the start of a downward trend,” said Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. “Exports, especially to Asia and the U.S., are likely to continue rising.”

China’s economy expanded 7.9 percent last quarter, rebounding from the weakest growth in almost a decade. The nation’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus to encourage consumer spending and investment in building projects has benefited Japanese manufacturers.

The Bank of Japan will release a report later today showing trade volumes on a month-on-month basis, data which correlates closely with the export component of gross domestic product, according to London-based Capital Economics Ltd.

“Japan’s exports are regaining momentum and we can expect the U.S. economy to improve and demand from China to remain brisk,” said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The question is how strong overseas demand will be in the fourth quarter.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Aki Ito in Tokyo at aito16@bloomberg.net; Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Poland Poised to Keep Rate on Hold as Growth, Prices to Pick Up

By Dorota Bartyzel and David McQuaid

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Poland’s central bank will probably leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low for a second month after inflation accelerated and signs emerged economic growth is picking up, a survey of economists shows.

Policy makers will keep the seven-day reference rate at 3.5 percent today, according to all 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank will announce its decision early this afternoon in Warsaw.

The Narodowy Bank Polski has probably ended a series of reductions after trimming the main rate by 2.5 percentage points since November as the economy, the only one in eastern Europe to avoid a recession, is poised to pick up pace. The biggest jump in retail sales this year fueled gains in the zloty and the rising inflation rate suggests there’s no room for reductions.

“The probability of another rate cut has vanished,” said Radoslaw Bodys, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London.

The zloty rose 0.5 percent against the euro yesterday, closing at 4.0847 to the common currency from 4.0993 in the previous trading day.

Nine of 15 economists polled by Bloomberg yesterday said there will be no further cuts and seven see an increase as soon as the middle of next year. Last month, 10 of 15 economists predicted one more rate cut, most likely in October.

Mounting Evidence

Still, central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek has maintained the bank is not finished lowering borrowing costs, even after policy makers left the benchmark rate unchanged on July 29.

Since the last decision, the statistics office reported the July inflation rate rose to 3.6 percent, exceeding the bank’s preferred range of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent, while core inflation, excluding food and energy costs, accelerated for a sixth month to the fastest pace in eight months.

Wages rose an annual 3.9 percent in July, almost double the June gain, and retail sales expanded an annual 5.7 percent, the biggest advance this year.

“It’s too early to expect a hike, but Poland may be added to the list of countries that will likely be among the first to tighten policy, following Israel’s surprise move yesterday,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, in a note to clients.

‘Shut the Window’

Accelerating inflation has “shut the window” on further easing, policy maker Dariusz Filar said on Aug. 13 after the publication of consumer-price data. Others in the 10-member rate-setting board have expressed similar sentiments.

“Our baseline assumption is that the easing cycle is over,” said Grzegorz Maliszewski, chief economist at Bank Millennium SA in Warsaw, who predicted the first quarter-point increase will come in late 2010.

Still, six of 15 economists in the survey continued to predict a further quarter-point cut in late 2009 or the first half of 2010.

“It’s too early to say definitively there will be no more rate cuts,” said Dariusz Winek, the chief economist at Bank Gospodarki Zywnosciowej SA in Warsaw. “The July retail figures significantly reduced the chances.”

The government, which downgraded its growth forecast in June to an annual 0.2 percent from 3.7 percent, may consider upgrading its estimate after the Aug. 28 publication of second- quarter data, said Deputy Finance Minister Ludwik Kotecki.

Zbigniew Chlebowski, an official of the ruling Civic Platform party, said gross domestic product in the second quarter may have risen 1 percent, compared with an economists’ median forecast of 0.5 percent in a Bloomberg survey.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dorota Bartyzel in Warsaw at dbartyzel@bloomberg.net David McQuaid in Warsaw at Dmcquaid1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Sarkozy Threat to Shun Bankers on Pay Draws U.S. Investor Alarm

By Michael J. Moore and Mark Deen

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s plan to shun bankers who don’t accept pay limits was met with alarm by analysts and investors in the U.S., where Citigroup Inc. and six other bailed-out companies are being grilled by the government on how they compensate top-paid executives.

Sarkozy said in Paris yesterday that his government won’t hire financial firms unless they apply rules agreed to by French bankers that include a three-year deferral on two-thirds of bonus payments. He aims to bring his proposals to a gathering of world leaders at a Group of 20 summit in Pittsburgh next month, which President Barack Obama is scheduled to attend.

“I find Sarkozy’s statements threatening,” said Bruce Foerster, president of South Beach Capital Markets in Miami and a former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. executive. “He’s coming to Pittsburgh and is going to be whispering in the ear of a president who has shown some willingness to listen to that kind of thinking. President Obama has made a lot of scathing comments about banks and bankers’ compensation.”

Obama has asked his “special master” on pay, Kenneth Feinberg, to establish pay guidelines for executives at the rescued companies, which also include Bank of America Corp. and General Motors Co. The measures aim to reduce incentives that led executives to take excessive risks and to quell a political outcry over bonuses paid at American International Group Inc., whose compensation practices are also under review by Feinberg, who didn’t return a call for comment yesterday.

White House spokesman Tommy Vietor declined to comment.

Tinkering With Contracts

The looming rulings from Feinberg, who has about two months to respond to the pay proposals, have prompted companies including Bank of America and Citigroup to add clauses into some new employment contracts stating that some compensation may be subject to government approval or limitations, according to a person familiar with the contracts.

“This is a good way for the corporation to save face if it’s challenged by the government, being able to say we looked into this and took this into consideration,” said Thomas B. Lewis, a lawyer at Stark & Stark in Princeton, New Jersey. “It’s probably only going to only come into play with the very high-wage earners.”

In France, executives from institutions including BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA agreed to the deferral and promised to pay out a third of bonuses in shares. They also pledged to stop offering guaranteed payouts to new hires.

‘Fight in Pittsburgh’

Sarkozy, who didn’t differentiate between France-based and international institutions, said he wants the G-20 to consider capping the total amount paid out by banks in bonuses and to consider setting limits on the size of individual bonuses. The meeting in Pittsburgh follows one held in London in April, when the group promised tighter rules on pay for bankers.

“I will fight in Pittsburgh to amplify the commitments made in London,” Sarkozy said, according to a text of the remarks released by his office. “The problem is global and has to be treated globally. France won’t accept the most minimal position or wait to act.”

Sarkozy’s demands will be difficult to enforce globally, said Charles Geisst, a professor of economics and finance at Manhattan College and author of “Wall Street: A History.”

“It’s an interesting remark,” Geisst said. “I sort of take that on the shady side of the street, as a political comment.”

Barclays, HSBC

Sarkozy’s government, which plans a record 155 billion euros ($216 billion) of debt sales this year, regularly hires foreign banks to sell bonds and arrange other transactions.

France hired Barclays Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc to help manage its only syndicated bond issue this year, a 6 billion- euro offering of 30-year notes on June 23, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The deal was also managed by BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse Group AG and Societe Generale.

In addition, Societe de Financement de L’Economie Francaise, a Paris-based agency owned by the government and a group of banks, hired foreign lenders including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Merrill Lynch & Co., Nomura Holdings Inc. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc to manage the sale of the equivalent of $87.6 billion of bonds in dollars, euros, British pounds and Swiss francs, Bloomberg data show.

“This is demagoguery run amok,” said Michael Holland, who oversees more than $4 billion at Holland & Co. in New York. “If the best and most qualified bankers go to places where they are compensated for their work, it means that Sarkozy will be doing business with only those that don’t have the highest degree of excellence.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net; Mark Deen in Paris at markdeen@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Homebuilders Buying Land After Three Years of Cutting Inventory

By John Gittelsohn

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Signature Properties has been trying since 2005 to sell 4,000 finished lots in its Fiddyment Farm community, a former pasture and pistachio orchard northeast of Sacramento, California.

The developer sold 41 sites in April to Meritage Homes Inc. for $66,000 each, and another 41 in June to Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. for $68,000 apiece. This month, they got their best offer yet -- $103,500 each for 77 sites.

Signature Properties said no.

“We decided to build it out ourselves,” said John Bayless, president of the Sacramento division of Signature Properties, a closely held developer in Pleasanton, California. “Our feeling is, ‘The tide’s turning. Let’s build ‘em.’”

Homebuilders that spent the past three years selling off land and writing down the value of property holdings are scouring markets in Sacramento, Phoenix, Denver and Orlando -- cities synonymous with the real estate bubble -- looking for deals on ready-to-build lots as they prepare for a rebound.

Writedowns and write-offs by 14 of the largest publicly traded homebuilders totaled $28.5 billion since the start of 2006, according to a July 15 report by Fitch Ratings.

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell in June at a slower pace than forecast. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index declined 15.4 percent from a year earlier, the smallest drop since April 2008, the group said yesterday. The gauge rose from the prior month by the most in four years.

Like a Shark

New home sales climbed 11 percent in June, the biggest gain in eight years, and housing starts were the highest since November. Single-family home starts increased again in July, for the fifth straight month, the U.S. Commerce Department reported on Aug. 18. July new home sale data will be released today.

“Like a shark has to keep swimming or it’ll die, it’s the same thing with builders,” said Kathryn Boyce, regional director in Sacramento for Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a real estate research company based in Costa Mesa, California. “They have to keep building or they’ll die.”

The National Association of Home Builders reported Aug. 17 that a builder confidence index rose to 18, its highest level since June 2008. A reading of less than 50 means most builders believe conditions are poor.

“It’s a good time to acquire properties, because you can often find distressed properties at low prices,” said Bernie Markstein, senior economist for the Washington-based homebuilder’s association. “There’s that old Wall Street saying: Don’t try to catch a falling knife. Maybe the knife is on the ground.”

Loaded with Cash

Homebuilders have increased cash by shedding non-performing assets. Shares in all 12 companies in the Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index are trading higher than they were at the beginning of the year.

“A lot of national builders have access to large funding,” Markstein said. “They have access to more sources of capital than smaller builders tied to local lenders.”

Meritage, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, has gone on a shopping spree in metro areas that were early victims of the housing slump, buying ready-to-build lots sold for one-third of the peak prices.

“The markets that were the hardest hit and had the largest fall from peak to trough are the best opportunity,” said Larry Seay, chief financial officer of Meritage, which builds in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Texas.

Who’s Buying

In addition to Meritage, other “land light” builders shopping in different cities are M.D.C. Holdings Inc. of Denver; KB Home of Los Angeles; NVR Inc. of Reston, Virginia; Ryland Group Inc. of Calabasas, California; and Hovnanian of Red Bank, New Jersey, Seay said.

M.D.C. and KB Home declined to comment for this story. NVR, Ryland and Hovnanian did not respond to requests for comment.

M.D.C. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Larry A. Mizel said during a July 31 conference call that his company’s land balances had dropped to their lowest level in more than a decade. He said the company has plenty of buying power, citing $1.6 billion in cash, no outstanding borrowing on its line of credit and no senior debt maturity until 2012.

“While our low exposure to land is a positive in this unstable economic environment, we are looking forward to redeploying our capital into new investments,” Mizel said.

More Deals

Hovnanian paid $25,000 per lot for 160 bank-owned finished lots in Florida, about 11 percent of the $220,000 original cost for land and improvements, Ara K. Hovnanian, the company’s president and CEO, said during a June 3 earnings call.

“We are seeing more land deals like this making their way to the surface around the country and will provide a once in a generation opportunity for us to reload and reinvest in land,” Hovnanian said, according to a transcript of the call.

Ryland spent $31 million to purchase new land in its second quarter, said Larry Nicholson, president and CEO.

“Since the quarter closed, however, we have been more active on the land acquisition front,” Nicholson said in a July 30 earnings call.

KB Home plans to spend up to $350 million on land purchases and development in 2009, about $200 million less than 2008. During the quarter ending May 30, the company optioned five finished lot deals “with minimal deposits touching every region we operate in representing more than 600 lots,” Jeffrey T. Mezger, KB Home’s president and CEO said during a June 26 conference call.

Not in Vegas

Not all areas of the country have equal appeal to builders. Meritage is steering clear of cities where markets are far from recovery, such as Las Vegas or Miami. It also is avoiding areas where prices have not fallen far from their peaks, such as Texas.

“The lots we’re buying are 50 to 75 percent off peak values,” Seay said. “In Phoenix, the lots we bought at $20,000 sold for $60,000 at the peak.”

Meritage would not disclose how many total lots it bought or what it paid, “but it would be safe to say we have closed on ‘several’ deals in 2009,” Seay said.

Even in a single metro area, not all communities rebound at the same time. In the Sacramento area, Bayless of Signature Properties said, Roseville is the first and only city so far to see signs of a recovery.

“The others will take time,” he said.

Non-performing Land

Lot sellers are troubled builders, banks and other companies that need to get nonperforming assets off their books.

In the Orlando area, land owners are unloading properties at one-third the peak prices, offering them in increments as small as four lots, waiting to get paid until after the homes on the lot are sold, said James B. Lewis, president of Charles Wayne Consulting Inc. in Maitland, Florida.

“They’ll take almost any deal they can get,” Lewis said.

At Fiddyment Farm, named after the family that owned the property since Gold Rush days, Signature Properties spent about $75,000 per lot for improvements such as roads, sewers and grading, Bayless said. And that didn’t include the cost of the land. To break even, he said, the lots should sell for at least $100,000.

The first sales in April were money losers, deemed necessary to raise cash. Those sales broke a logjam, he said.

“We knew we had to make that first sale to move the market,” Bayless said. “Once Meritage closed, the offers started to flow in.”

Scaling Down

Meritage’s homes are already rising on the 41 lots at Fiddyment Farm.

The builder scaled down the square footage and switched to less expensive finishings. Instead of granite countertops, the homes come with Formica or tile. Instead of hardwood floors, they come with carpet.

“One of the keys to building is to compete with the foreclosure market,” Seay said. “We can be a little more expensive. We have to be close enough to represent a good value.”

Signature Properties plans to build $450,000 homes on the 77 lots it’s keeping. Ground-breaking is planned for early 2010. Bayless, who has worked in the real estate business for 23 years, said this is the third slump he has weathered and it’s “by far the deepest trough.” Experience taught him a lesson he hopes works today.

“If you take an opportunity when the market starts to make a turn,” he said, “it tends to pay off.”

To contact the reporter on this story: John Gittelsohn in New York at johngitt@bloomberg.net.





Read more...