Economic Calendar

Friday, February 6, 2009

Employment: Weak Jobs Suggest Weak Consumer, Recession Persists

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wachovia Corporation | Feb 06 09 14:18 GMT |

Nonfarm employment fell 598,000 with declines in all private sectors except for education & health. Meanwhile, government employment continues to rise. The breadth of job losses, illustrated below by the diffusion index, now surpasses the prior two recessions. The unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent. Aggregate hours declined again.

Employment Declines Signal Broad Consumer Weakness

  • Job declines were widespread with losses in all private sectors with gains only in health & education. Over the last three months we have lost 590,000 jobs on average.
  • Only the government sector is adding jobs at this point with most of the jobs being added by the federal sector.
  • Hours worked have declined and this suggests GDP declines.

Unemployment Up, Output Down

  • Over the last year, the breadth of industries adding jobs has dropped sharply suggesting broad weakness in consumer spending and dismal consumer confidence.
  • Rising unemployment rates have been driven by a loss of jobs and are consistent with weakness in consumer spending and the drop in consumer sentiment.

Wachovia Corporation
http://www.wachovia.com

Disclaimer: The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wachovia Corporation and its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wachovia Corporation or any of its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or any foreign exchange transaction, or as personalized investment advice. Securities and foreign exchange transactions are not FDIC-insured, are not bank-guaranteed, and may lose value.


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Daily Technical Strategist

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Feb 06 09 13:26 GMT |

Today's Focus: EURUSD & EURGBP

  • EURUSD: Downside Vulnerability Remains In Progress.
  • EURGBP: Triggers The Resumption Of Its Short Term Downtrend.

EURUSD

A follow through to the downside on its Wednesday sell off saw the pair test a low of 1.2761 before closing at 1.2789 on Thursday. The immediate risk is for the pair to retest and decisively break the 1.2766 level, its Jan 23'09 low ahead of the 1.2706 level and then the 1.2551 level, its Dec 04'08 low .On overcoming these hurdles, EUR should target its 2008 swing low standing at 1.2330.Our broader(MT) view is for a sustained break of that level accelerating further downside weakness towards its Feb'06 low at 1.1824. On the upside, a return back above its Nov 25'08 high at 1.3081 followed with a close above the 1.3298/1.3313 zone, its Jan 06'09 low/Oct 30'08 high will be required to prevent its current downside threats and bring gains towards its Nov 25'08 high at 1.3081 and then the 1.3298/1.3313 zone, its Jan 06'09 low/Oct 30'08 high. On the whole, while price action points lower and remains within the declining channel, EUR risk further downside weakness.

Support Comments
1.2766 Jan 23'09 low
1.2551 Dec 04'08 low
1.2330 2008 low


Resistance Comments
1.3070/81 Channel Top/Nov 25'08 high
1.3298/1.3313 Jan 06'09 low/Oct 30'08 high
1.3386 Jan 19'09 high

EURGBP

A clean cut through its Jan 09/16'09 lows at 0.8844/38 Thursday has seen the cross resuming its short term declines initiated at the 0.9803 level to close the session at 0.8744.It was seen heading further lower today testing a low of 0.8663 which also represents its Nov 13'08 high. This is a very significant level and if a loss of there occurs, the cross could decline to as low as the 0.8569 level, its Nov 17'08 high where an invalidation could trigger additional weakness towards the 0.8236 level, its Nov 28'08 low. This level if seen is expected to cap declines and put the pair on the path to corrective recovery. Its daily studies are trending lower supporting the present weakness. To the topside, its just eroded support at the 0.8844/38 level is now expected to reverse roles and provide support. Further out, resistance level are located at the 0.9128/24 area, its Jan 14/13'09 highs before its Jan 20'09 high at 0.9325 and next its swing high at the 0.9521 level, its Jan 26'09 high. Above the latter level will expose its 2008 high at 0.9803.On the whole, having convincingly taken out the 0.8844/38 level,EURGBP is now expected to head further lower.

Support Comments
0.8663 Nov 13,08 high
0.8569 Nov 17'08 high
0.8236 Nov 28'08 low


Resistance Comments
0.8844/38 Jan 09/16'09 lows
0.8752 50 Ret(0.7694-0.9803 rally)
0.9128/24 Jan 14/13'09 highs

Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com

This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report


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Currency Technical Report

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX Greece | Feb 06 09 13:12 GMT |

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1,2815-20/ 1,2860/ 1,2905-20/ 1,2960/ 1,3030/ 1,3060-70/ 1,3110/ 1,3185/
Support : 1,2750/ 1,2700-10/ 1,2620-25/ 1,2550-60/ 1,2500/ 1,2435-40/ 1,2350

Comment: Yesterday was negative for euro, as the interest rate announcement and Trichet's comments led euro lower, below 1,2800 and then returned to 1,2900 area.

The day started with euro moving below 1,2800 and first important support id found at 1,2700-20. A clear break of 1,2700 ,would have technically as target the area of 1,2550-70, with interim support at 1,2625-30.

A move above 1,2910-20 area, would be a positive sign for euro and in that case we could see a move to 1,3050-70, where previous lows were formed.. A break of 1,3100 would indicate the trend reversal, and first target would be at 1,3350-00 and then 1,3800 area.

For now we will follow the current downtrend, until we see reversal signs.

*STRATEGY :

High volatility is expected today and we will move at the ranges, which means buy orders at 1,2700-10, with stops below 1,2650 and sell orders at 1,2900-20, with stops above 1,2960.

Buy orders could also be tried at the base of 1,2550-80, with stops below 1,2500. Sell opportunities emerge at 1,3050-3100 area.

FX Greece

DISCLAIMER

  1. The details and information included in the above analysis, are part of research based exclusively on currency charts and are of purely instructional and educational nature. None of the information featuring in the analysis can be considered as an invitation for opening positions in FOREX market or in the market of forward contracts or any securities listed on an organized or unorganized market.
  2. We assume no responsibility for any kind of losses ,profits or property loss resulting, in whole or in part, from acts that are based either directly or indirectly on the processing or the use of information, details and strategies, the reader may find in the analysis. The readers hold full responsibility for the use and the results of their actions.
  3. The recipients of the analysis must acknowledge and accept that investment choices of any kind, especially concerning the FOREX market, contain risks (high, low and occasionally zero) of reduction or even loss of their investment. Therefore, they should always be cautious prior to any kind of action.
  4. We reserve the right to change the terms and the characteristics of the analysis.
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FX Thoughts for the Day

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services | Feb 06 09 13:04 GMT |

USD-CHF @ 1.1712/18...Holding Long

R: 1.1743 / 1.1887-98
S: 1.1681 / 1.1650 / 1.1598-80

Swiss has traded in a thin range during the day and has shown inability to rise upwards of 1.1743 seen during the early Asian session today. Having seen a sharp surge yesterday could possibly consolidate before it starts moving up topwards 1.19 as mentioned in the morning. Swiss has Resistance at 1.1843 (76.4% fibonacci retracement of the fall from 1.2300 to 1.0373). To see the chart of Swiss, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/chfcandle.shtml#candle

We are holding the Long in anticipation that this consolidation phase would end soon and Swiss would begin a fresh journey upwards. If it dips during the US session, we would want to buy USD near 1.1610. Projected Max Low for the day is at 1.1519 and Max High at 1.1898.

Holding:

Long USD 10K at 1.1716, SL 1.1670, TP 1.1770

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.4659/66...Strong Resistance at 1.4825

R: 1.4738 / 1.4841 / 1.4899
S: 1.4617 / 1.4569-51 / 1.4483-71

Cable has spiked above the Resistance region of 1.4750 when it touched 1.4768 briefly and has since then dipped towards the current levels. Same view holds, the pair could rise towards 1.4825 and then possibly dip towards 1.4250 over the next few days as evidenced by the daily candle charts. However if the break of Resistance at 1.4825 happens, it might surge towards 1.4950 where trendline Resistance exists on the weekly charts. To see the chart of Cable, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml#candle

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.6593/96...Resistance at 0.6660

R: 0.6612 / 0.6650-53 / 0.6706
S: 0.6530-13 / 0.6495-70

Aussie has broken past the Resistance at 21-day MA and next has trendline Resistance near 0.6650-60 on the daily candle charts which coincides with the 21-week MA Resistance but prior to that a brief Resistance at 0.6640 on the 4-hour candles. To see the chart of Aussie, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle

We would want to Short on a break above 0.6660 but the US NFP later during the day could possibly throw up some volatility which keeps us off from entering into trade at this point.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.





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U.S. January Employment Situation: Statistical Summary

By Kristy Scheuble

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of the January employment situation from the Labor Department.


==============================================================================
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. 3-month
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Average
==============================================================================
Unemployment rate 7.6% 7.2% 6.8% 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 7.2%
Rate (3 decimals) 7.557% 7.192% 6.775% 6.599% 6.204% 6.168% 7.174%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3%
Avg. weekly hours 33.3 33.3 33.4 33.5 33.6 33.7 33.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nonfarm employment -598 -577 -597 -380 -321 -175 -591
Previous estimate n/a -524 -584 -423 -403 -127 n/a

Manufacturing -207 -162 -121 -119 -65 -67 -163
Previous estimate n/a -149 -104 -123 -69 -61 n/a
Household employment -1,239 -806 -513 -372 -244 -323 -853
==============================================================================
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. 3-month
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Average
==============================================================================
------------Monthly Change in Employment------------
Nonfarm employment -598 -577 -597 -380 -321 -175 -591
Total private -604 -567 -601 -384 n/a n/a -591
Goods-producing -319 -250 -249 -184 -104 -81 -273
Construction -111 -86 -127 -65 -46 -24 -108
Manufacturing -207 -162 -121 -119 -65 -67 -163
Service providing -279 -327 -348 -196 -217 -94 -318
Trade, transport -118 -147 -152 -100 n/a n/a -139
Retail trade -45 -83 -91 -61 -56 -46 -73
Information -21 -24 -17 -4 -4 -5 -21
Financial -42 -27 -45 -27 -26 -13 -38
Business services -121 -106 -124 -63 -52 -61 -117
Temporary help -76 -74 -90 -45 n/a n/a -80
Education, health 54 45 63 24 7 62 54
Leisure, hospitality -28 -31 -51 -33 -26 -19 -37
Government 6 -10 4 4 -21 19 0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
==============================================================================
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. 3-month
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Average
==============================================================================
----------------------Earnings-----------------------
Avg. hourly earnings $18.46 $18.41 $18.34 $18.28 $18.21 $18.18 $18.40
MOM% change 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3%
YOY% change 3.9% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Avg. weekly earnings $614.72 $613.05 $612.56 $612.38 $611.86 $612.67 $613.44
MOM% change 0.3% 0.1% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
YOY% change 2.7% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
--------------------Hours of Work--------------------
Total private 33.3 33.3 33.4 33.5 33.6 33.7 33.3
MOM% change 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% 0.3% -0.2%
Manufacturing 39.8 39.9 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.8 40.0
MOM% change -0.3% -0.7% -0.5% -0.2% -0.7% -0.5% -0.5%
Overtime 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.0
--------------------Aggregate Hours--------------------
Aggregate hours index 102.6 103.3 104.1 105.0 105.8 106.4 103.3
MOM% change -0.7% -0.8% -0.9% -0.8% -0.6% 0.2% -0.8%

==============================================================================
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. 3-month
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Average
==============================================================================
-----------Labor Force Status (thousands)-------------
Pool available labor 17,259 16,596 15,869 15,286 14,732 14,386 16,575
Level change 663 727 583 554 346 443 658
Augmented Unemp. Rate 10.8% 10.4% 9.9% 9.6% 9.2% 9.0% 10.4%
Civilian labor force 153,716 154,447 154,620 154,878 154,621 154,823 154,261
Level change -731 -173 -258 257 -202 317 -387
Participation rate 65.5% 65.7% 65.8% 66.0% 66.0% 66.1% 65.7%
Employment 142,099 143,338 144,144 144,657 145,029 145,273 143,194
Level change -1,239 -806 -513 -372 -244 -323 -853
Employment ratio 60.5% 61.0% 61.4% 61.7% 61.9% 62.1% 61.0%
Unemployment 11,616 11,108 10,476 10,221 9,592 9,550 11,067
Level change 508 632 255 629 42 640 465
Avg. duration (wks) 19.8 19.7 18.9 19.8 18.7 17.6 19.5
Median duration 10.3 10.6 10.0 10.6 10.3 9.3 10.3
Not in labor force 81,023 80,588 80,208 79,734 79,739 79,284 80,606
Level change 435 380 474 -5 455 -74 430
Job leavers 8.0% 9.1% 8.9% 9.2% 10.1% 10.5% 8.7%
==============================================================================
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. 3-month
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Average
==============================================================================
--------------------Diffusion Index--------------------
Private nonfarm 25.3 25.5 27.1 33.0 34.7 39.1 26.0
3-mo. average 26.0 28.5 31.6 35.6 37.1 37.9 n/a
Manufacturing 7.8 13.3 15.1 18.7 22.9 27.7 12.1
3-mo. average 12.1 15.7 18.9 23.1 25.5 26.3 n/a
==============================================================================
NOTE: All figures seasonally adjusted. Employment figures in thousands.
The augmented unemployment rate is the number of job wanters plus the number
unemployed divided by the labor force plus the number of job wanters.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kristy Scheuble in Washington at kmckeaney@bloomberg.net





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U.S. Jobless Rate Soars as Payrolls Plunge by 598,000

By Shobhana Chandra

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The unemployment rate in the U.S. climbed to the highest level since 1992 in January and payrolls tumbled as the recession showed no sign of abating.

The jobless rate rose to 7.6 percent from 7.2 percent in December, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Payrolls fell by 598,000, the biggest monthly decline since December 1974, after dropping by 577,000 in the previous month.

The loss of jobs, at employers ranging from manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc. to retailers such as Macy’s Inc., is shattering consumer confidence and crippling spending. President Barack Obama is likely to use the first employment report since he took office to prod lawmakers into agreeing on a compromise economic stimulus package by the end of this month.

“We’re losing jobs at an alarming pace and bracing for more weakness,” Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, said before the report. “The private sector is flat on its back at this point. The government needs to step in with a stimulus, the sooner the better.”

Treasuries slipped while stock-index futures headed higher after the figures. Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index gained 0.3 percent to 843 at 8:34 a.m. in New York. Benchmark 10-year note yields rose to 2.92 percent from 2.90 percent late yesterday.

Deeper Cuts

With a revised decline of 597,000 jobs in November, revisions subtracted 66,000 workers from previously reported payroll figures for the last two months of 2008. The U.S. economy has now lost a total of 3.57 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, the biggest employment slump of any economic contraction in the postwar period.

Last month’s losses mark the first time since records began in 1939 that job cuts exceeded half a million in three consecutive months.

Payrolls were forecast to drop 540,000, according to the median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates of the decrease ranged from 400,000 to 750,000.

The jobless rate was projected to jump to 7.5 percent. Forecasts ranged from 7.3 percent to 7.6 percent.

The House of Representatives last week passed an $819 billion stimulus package that includes tax cuts and infrastructure spending. The Senate is working on a plan that is closer to $900 billion.

Obama Warning

“A failure to act and to act now will turn crisis into catastrophe and guarantee a longer recession,” Obama told lawmakers on Feb. 4 in Washington.

Today’s report showed factory payrolls decreased by 207,000, the biggest drop since October 1982, after declining 162,000 in the prior month. Economists had forecast a January drop of 145,000. The decrease included a loss of 31,300 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries.

Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, on Jan. 30 said it plans to cut 2,110 workers in addition to the 20,000 reductions it reported earlier in the month.

Payrolls at builders declined 111,000 after decreasing 86,000.

Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 279,000 workers after cutting 327,000. Retail payrolls decreased by 45,100 after a decline of 82,700. Financial firms reduced payrolls by 42,000, after a 27,000 decrease the prior month.

Government Jobs

Government payrolls increased by 6,000 after shrinking by 10,000 the prior month.

Saks Inc., Target Corp., Starbucks Corp. and Home Depot Inc. last month reported plans to reduce workers. Others following suit in February include Macy’s. The second-largest U.S. department-store company said it will cut 7,000 jobs, eliminate executives’ merit increases for 2008, and trim its contribution to staff 401(k) retirement-savings plans.

“This is a time when nothing should be considered a sacred cow,” Macy’s Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren said on a conference call with investors and analysts.

News of job losses continued this week. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. will reduce almost 10 percent of its workforce by 2011, and Estee Lauder Cos., the maker of Clinique and Bobbi Brown cosmetics, will slash 2,000 jobs over the next two years.

Post Office

Government jobs are now also in jeopardy. The U.S. Postal Service plans to trim headcount through attrition and early retirement, and has asked lawmakers to allow it to reduce its six-days-a-week delivery schedule to pare expenses.

The average work week remained at 33.3 hours in January. Average weekly hours worked by production workers fell to 39.8 hours from 39.9 hours, while overtime decreased to 2.9 hours from 3 hours. Average weekly earnings rose by $1.67 to $614.72.

Workers’ average hourly wages rose 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.46 from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.9 percent higher than in January 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.2 percent increase from December and a 3.6 percent gain for the 12-month period.

With today’s report, the Labor Department also issued revisions to payrolls going back to 2004. The annual benchmark revision, which aligns the data with corporate tax records and covers the period from April 2007 to March 2008, subtracted 89,000 workers from payrolls in the 12 months ended in March, exceeding the 21,000 reduction Labor estimated in October.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net





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German Industrial Output Drops by the Most on Record

By Jana Randow

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Industrial production in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, dropped the most in at least 18 years in December as demand for plant and machinery faltered.

Output fell a seasonally adjusted 4.6 percent from November, the biggest decline since records for a reunified Germany began in January 1991, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. It was the fourth straight monthly drop and almost twice the 2.5 percent retreat forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Companies are paring output and investment after the global financial crisis drove Germany into its worst recession since World War II. Volkswagen AG and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG cut working hours for 86,000 employees to reduce production after demand for cars imploded. The government expects the economy to contract 2.25 percent this year.

“We’ve experienced the sharpest contraction of industrial production in the fourth quarter since the 1960s and we can’t exclude that output will decline at the same speed in the first quarter,” said Lothar Hessler, an economist at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG in Duesseldorf, Germany. “It’s bitter and the forecasts for a return to growth at the end of the year are increasingly standing on shaky ground.”

The German economy contracted as much as 2 percent in the final three months of 2008, the Federal Statistics Office said on Jan. 15. The drop in output in December was led by an 8.2 percent slump in production of intermediate goods. From a year earlier, overall output fell 12 percent, the ministry said.

Global Demand

Exports from Germany plunged a record 10.8 percent in November from October. The Bundesbank forecasts German sales abroad will decline 0.5 percent this year after gains of 4.4 percent in 2008 and 7.5 percent in 2007. Volkswagen, Europe’s largest carmaker, said deliveries fell 20 percent last month.

“The financial crisis has pushed the German industry into a condition of shock and awe,” Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Group in Brussels, said in a research note. “Although German producers have not become less competitive, they now suffer most from the complete collapse of world trade. Even more worrying, the worst is yet to come.”

Manufacturing orders, a gauge of future industrial output, fell 6.9 percent in December from a month earlier, the fourth consecutive decline, the Economy Ministry said yesterday.

“Against the backdrop of a continuously strong decline of demand for industrial goods, a weak development of overall production has to be expected in the coming months,” the ministry said in today’s report.

Economic Cooling

“As an export nation we are strongly feeling the global economic cooling” and “cannot dodge the negative impact of the global financial crisis,” Bundesbank President Axel Weber said last week. “We still assume that the contraction in the first quarter will be followed by a phase of stabilization and in the next year a slight revival.”

Manufacturers in Germany and the rest of Europe have reduced inventories. Salzgitter AG, Germany’s second-biggest steelmaker, said on Jan. 14 it expects demand to pick up as clients run down stockpiles to a low point in the second quarter.

“The build-down of inventories could be a sign that the economic situation is stabilizing,” said Stefan Bielmeier, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt. “If there’s a recovery, it’ll be via exports and construction.”

Business confidence unexpectedly rose for the first time in eight months in January, the Ifo institute said on Jan. 27, after the government agreed to spend about 80 billion euros ($103 billion) over two years to stimulate the economy.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jana Randow in Frankfurt at jrandow@bloomberg.net.





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Bank of England Expects Asset Purchase Facility to Start Feb. 13

By Jennifer Ryan

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England said it expected its asset purchase facility will be operational on Feb. 13. The facility will include commercial paper purchases, and the bank is consulting on buying corporate bonds in the secondary market.

The U.K. central bank made the remarks in an e-mailed statement.





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RWE Says Russia-Ukraine Gas Halt Had ’Financial Implications’

By Nicholas Comfort

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- RWE AG, Germany’s second-largest utility, said while the halt of Russian natural gas supplies via Ukraine last month had “considerable financial implications” it won’t sue exporter OAO Gazprom for damages.

Stefan Judisch, RWE Supply & Trading managing director, made the remarks in Essen yesterday, as reported by Financial Times Deutschland, RWE spokesman Michael Rosen confirmed by phone today.

Chief Executive Officer Juergen Grossmann last month said the halt in Russian gas shipments via Ukraine, affecting more than 20 European countries for a fortnight, “didn’t cost us anything” even as it sold the gas at a discount to eastern European customers.

RWE sent gas to Czech and Slovakian clients, supplied using existing contracts with Norwegian producers, own reserves and spot-market purchases, Rosen said.

The Essen-based utility hasn’t yet determined the total cost of the supply disruption, the spokesman said, without detailing the volumes sent.

RWE is in regular contact with Gazprom, Rosen said, without specifying when the next meeting will take place.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Comfort in Frankfurt at ncomfort1@bloomberg.net





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France Will Make Decision Soon on Best Partners for Areva

By Tara Patel

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The French government will make a decision soon on the “most profitable” partners for Areva SA after Siemens AG announced it was pulling out of a joint venture with the world’s biggest maker of nuclear reactors.

“I want the state to think about which industrial partners would be the most profitable for Areva,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in a speech during a visit to Flamanville, Normandy, where the company is helping to build a new-generation reactor. “It should be finished soon because it is necessary.”

Areva, which is controlled by the government, has turned to the state for financial support to fund investment as the credit crisis hampers efforts to raise capital. Siemens, Europe’s biggest engineering company, said last week it plans to sell its 34 percent stake in a nuclear joint venture with Areva.

Nuclear “renewal is powerful and it would be a grave error to be late with investment,” Sarkozy said. “The positions are to be taken now and Areva’s customers won’t understand if they have to wait because investment in production didn’t follow.”

“We must invest without hesitating and without regret, quickly and massively and in France,” he said.

The Paris-based company is supplying the reactor parts for the construction of France’s first Areva-designed Evolutionary Power Reactor in Flamanville. Sarkozy announced last week another would be built in Penly, also in northern France, and today raised the possibility of a third.

Areva signed a preliminary sales agreement earlier this week with Nuclear Power Corp. of India for two reactors with a capacity of 1,650-megawatts each. The Indian state-run monopoly may buy as many as six reactors from Areva.

The Siemens stake sale reignited speculation about a restructuring of French nuclear assets that could include a tie- up with Alstom SA, a turbine maker from France. Alstom has pushed for a merger with Areva to boost growth, while Areva Chief Executive Officer Anne Lauvergeon opposes such a step.

Both Lauvergeon and Alstom Chief Executive Officer Patrick Kron accompanied Sarkozy during today’s visit.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tara Patel in Paris on tpatel2@bloomberg.net





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OPEC President Says Group Analyzing Impact of Cuts

By Candido Mendes and Maher Chmaytelli

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is monitoring the result of its production cuts to decide whether more reductions are needed at a March 15 meeting to push the price of crude to $75 a barrel, the group’s president said.

“There will be a deeper analysis from the delegates,” at the March meeting in Vienna, OPEC President Joao Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said in an interview yesterday in Luanda, the Angolan capital.

OPEC, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world´s oil, agreed to three supply cuts last year in an effort to halt sliding prices as world oil demand heads for its second year of contraction. The last was agreed Dec. 17 and took effect Jan. 1.

Algerian Oil Minister and previous OPEC President Chakib Khelil on Feb. 3 said “there’s a 50-50 probability of further production cuts” at the March meeting.

Botelho de Vasconcelos, who is Angola’s oil minister, agreed with Khelil and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah that OPEC should aim for a $75-a-barrel price, because it allows the expansion of oil production capacity. The price would enable companies like Total SA and BP Plc to continue developing fields discovered offshore Angola, he said.

“For Angola, oil companies operating in the country may opt to suspend projects if the situation continues to be unsustainable,” he said. “We have to look at the issue in terms of equilibrium of incoming revenues if it is better to cut and get the prices to satisfactory levels or continue to produce a lot at lower prices.”

Reconstruction Effort

The west African nation needs the oil revenue for the reconstruction effort launched in 2002 after a 27-year civil war. The government cut its first-quarter spending plans after oil prices fell below a $55-a-barrel crude price on which it had initially based its budget.

Crude lost more than two-thirds of its value since peaking at a record $147.27 a barrel in July, as the global credit crunch slows economies around the globe, eroding demand for energy. Crude was trading in New York at $40.11 a barrel at 11:30 a.m. London time.

OPEC’s three production cuts amount to a 4.2 million barrel-a-day reduction from actual output levels in September. While its efforts so far have “stabilized” prices, Khelil said OPEC needs oil between $70 and $80 a barrel to develop new oilfields.

Botelho de Vasconcelos became OPEC’s president on Jan. 1 for a term of one year, taking over from Khelil.

OPEC oil supply cuts alone may not be enough to counter falling industrial demand, requiring reductions by non-OPEC producers to restore balance to the market, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said in a Feb. 4 research note.

Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, the most influential minister among OPEC’s 12 member nations, is scheduled to speak at the CERA Week industry conference in Houston next week.

To contact the reporters on this story: Candido Mendes in Luanda via London at sev@bloomberg.net; Maher Chmaytelli in Cyprus at mchmatyelli@bloomberg.net.





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Pound Rises to Nine-Week High Against Euro, Gains Versus Dollar

By Anchalee Worrachate

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The pound rose to the highest level in almost nine weeks against the euro on speculation interest- rate cuts by the Bank of England will help revive the U.K. economy faster than the rest of Europe.

The British currency strengthened to less than 87 pence per euro for the first time since Dec. 9. U.K. policy makers lowered the key rate yesterday to an all-time low of 1 percent. The European Central Bank kept its benchmark rate at 2 percent.

“The contrast in policy responses is growing,” analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, wrote in a report today. “Sterling is likely to gain the benefit of some policy credibility, particularly compared to the euro. The ECB is seen as behind the curve, with its reluctance to act with even traditional policy measures” suggesting the euro will fall further.

The pound appreciated as much as 1 percent to 86.64 pence per euro, before trading at 87.33 pence as of 11:40 a.m. in London, set for a second straight weekly gain. The U.K. currency climbed 0.4 percent to $1.4663, also on course for a second five-day advance.

The Bank of England said yesterday the global economy is in the throes of a severe recession and that cuts in borrowing costs, fiscal measures and a weaker pound will boost the U.K. economy. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said policy makers may reduce the refinancing rate next month. The Federal Reserve’s main rate is as low as zero.

Gilt Gains

Government bonds rose, with 10-year securities heading for the first weekly gain in five as economic reports showed the service industry contracted for a ninth month, manufacturing production fell at a faster pace than forecast and consumer confidence deteriorated.

The yield on the 10-year gilt fell four basis points to 3.68 percent, two basis points lower than a week ago. The 5 percent security maturing in March 2018 rose 0.29, or 2.9 pounds per 1,000-pound ($1,465) face amount, to 110.13.

The two-year yield declined two basis points to 1.64 percent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

The difference in yield, or spread, between the two- and the 10-year bonds narrowed to 204 basis points, from 220 basis points last week. The flattening yield curve suggested investors may pare back expectations for further rate cuts by the central bank.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net; David Clarke in Edinburgh at dclarke3@bloomberg.net





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Brazil’s Real Little Changed After U.S. Jobless Rate Soars

By Adriana Brasileiro

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s real erased earlier gains and was little changed after unemployment in the U.S. rose to the highest level in 16 years and payrolls plunged amid the recession.

The real was little changed at 2.2824 per U.S. dollar at 8:51 a.m. New York time, after climbing as much as 0.9 percent earlier.

The jobless rate rose to 7.6 percent from 7.2 percent in December, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Payrolls fell by 598,000, the biggest monthly decline since December 1974, after dropping by 577,000 in the previous month.

The yield on Brazil’s zero-coupon local-currency bonds due January 2010 fell five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 11.08 percent. The yield on Brazil’s overnight futures contract for July delivery declined four basis points to 11.58 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Adriana Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro at abrasileiro@bloomberg.net





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Canadian Dollar Falls to 2-Week Low on ‘Shocking’ Job Numbers

By Whitney Kisling and Chris Fournier

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar declined to the lowest in two weeks as a government report showed employers cut 129,000 jobs in January, fueling concern that the country’s economy is deteriorating.

“A shocker,” said Jack Spitz, managing director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto. “There’s little that one can take from this data to lend any material support for the Canadian dollar in the short term.”

Canada’s dollar fell 1.5 percent to C$1.2512 per U.S. dollar at 7:46 a.m. in Toronto, from $1.2323 yesterday. It touched C$1.2650 on Jan. 23. One Canadian dollar buys 79.92 U.S. cents. The currency dropped 18 percent in 2008 as the global recession reduced export demand.

The monthly job losses were the largest since the methodology of the employment survey was last changed in 1976, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The jobless rate rose to 7.2 percent, a four-year high, from 6.6 percent in December. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipated that employers would cut 40,000 positions, the median forecast.

Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty yesterday warned that today’s employment data would likely be “regrettable,” and suggested the government may need to implement another stimulus package because the economy is deteriorating.

Forecasts

“The numbers were shocking, even with the warning yesterday,” said Steven Butler, director of foreign-exchange trading in Toronto at Scotia Capital, a unit of Canada’s third- largest bank. “This will clearly add a lot of pressure to the Canadian dollar.”

Canada’s dollar will weaken to C$1.28, then C$1.30, Butler said.

“It’s not bad to buy the Canadian dollar again” as it sinks to C$1.27 to C$1.28, said Firas Askari, head currency trader in Toronto at BMO Nesbitt Burns, a unit of Bank of Montreal. “But be patient. You will get better levels to buy.”

The Bank of Canada lowered its overnight lending rate seven times since the end of 2007, reducing it by 50 basis points to 1 percent on Jan. 20. The central bank’s next meeting is scheduled for March 3.

“A weak number cements the view that the economy is truly bad enough to justify further easing,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report was released. Further easing is “a net weakening factor for the Canadian dollar.”

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 7.5 percent from 7.2 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts before the government report at 8:30 a.m. today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net; Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net.





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Dollar Falls as Employers Eliminate More Jobs Than Forecast

By Ye Xie

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped versus the euro for the first time in three days as a report showed U.S. employers eliminated more jobs last month than economists forecast.

The euro fell for a third day versus the pound as a report showed German industrial production dropped in December by the most in at least 18 years. The Australian dollar rose versus the greenback on bets the central bank will slow the pace of rate cuts after it said policies “now in place” support the economy.

“There’s no indication that we’ve passed the worst of the economic slowdown,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “The dollar is in a slight correction.”

The dollar slid 0.2 percent to $1.2817 per euro at 8:53 a.m. in New York, from $1.2790 yesterday. It reached $1.2706 on Feb. 2, the strongest level since Dec. 5. The yen declined 0.4 percent to 91.58 per dollar from 91.23. It touched 92.25 yesterday, the weakest level since Jan. 8, after breaking through a two-week range of about 88 to 90. The yen lost 0.6 percent to 117.34 versus the euro from 116.63.

U.S. employers eliminated 598,000 jobs last month, following a reduction of 577,000 in December, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reduction of 540,000. The unemployment rate increased to 7.6 percent. The U.S. lost about 2.6 million jobs last year.

German Output

The euro dropped 0.1 percent to 87.43 pence as the Economy Ministry in Berlin said German industrial output plunged a seasonally adjusted 4.6 percent in December, the biggest decline since records for a reunified Germany began in January 1991. The median forecast of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a decline of 2.5 percent.

The International Monetary Fund reiterated yesterday forecasts for the world’s largest economies, saying U.S. gross domestic product will contract 1.6 percent, Japan’s will shrink 2.6 percent and the euro area will decline 2 percent in 2009. The fund in November foresaw a 0.7 percent U.S. drop and declines of 0.2 percent in Japan and 0.5 percent in the euro zone.

The Australian dollar appreciated 1.1 percent to 65.94 U.S. cents after the Reserve Bank said in a quarterly statement that the “expansionary monetary and fiscal policies now in place will help to cushion” the economy from “contractionary forces.”

December Report

The dollar gained 1.7 percent versus the euro on Jan. 9, when the December payroll report showed job losses were less than some economists forecast.

Investors have been “increasingly disinclined” to trade currencies on the day the Labor Department releases its payrolls report, contributing to the dollar’s “erratic” response to the data, according to a note by Citigroup Inc. on Jan. 7.

The euro versus the dollar moved in the opposite direction of a surprise payroll reading “on a close-to-close basis” only four times last year, compared with nine times in 2007, according to the report. Trading volume on days the Labor Department releases its payroll report “have more often than not fallen short” of its average for the rest of the month since March 2007, Citigroup said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net





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Rubber Futures Gain for Second Straight Week on China Demand

By Rattaphol Onsanit and Jae Hur

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Natural rubber futures advanced for a fourth day in Tokyo, driven by demand from China after the Lunar New Year holiday and optimism that a U.S. stimulus plan will boost the world’s largest economy.

Prices rose as much as 3.1 percent today and 4.3 percent this week, the second weekly advance as Chinese buyers returned after the holiday last week. The commodity, used to make car tires, also tracked gains in Asian shares amid speculation that the U.S. Congress will soon complete debate on a package to ease the financial crisis.

“Demand from China is back,” Rewat Yenchai, an analyst at Bangkok-based AGROW Enterprise Ltd. said today by phone. “Buyers are interested in rubber from Indonesia.”

Rubber for July delivery added 2.4 percent to 144.1 yen a kilogram ($1,578 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange after touching 145 yen, the highest since Jan. 29.

China widened measures to bolster Asia’s second-largest economy by cutting some tariffs on raw material and component imports. Components and raw materials that “really needed to be imported” will be exempted from import duties and value-added taxes, the Chinese cabinet said in a statement on its Web site Feb. 4, without being specific.

The U.S. House passed an $819 billion stimulus plan on Jan. 28. The Senate is considering a package of spending and tax cuts of about $900 billion and a bipartisan group of senators is trying to come up with ways to pare that down.

Stimulus Package

A U.S. Treasury official yesterday said Secretary Timothy Geithner will make a speech on Feb. 9 and President Barack Obama will hold a news conference that will address the stimulus package. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.1 percent to 83.41 at 5:35 p.m. in Tokyo.

May-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-active contract, advanced 2.6 percent to 13,505 yuan ($1,976) a ton.

Rubber inventories declined 475 tons to 63,655 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said today in a report on its Web site.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rattaphol Onsanit in Bangkok at ronsanit@bloomberg.net; Jae Hur in Singapore at jhur1@bloomberg.net





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Soybeans Head for First Weekly Gain in Four; Corn, Wheat Rise

By Jae Hur

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose for a third day, headed for a first weekly gain in four, and corn gained as drought hurt the outlook for crops in Latin America. Wheat climbed a second day after China said its harvest has been hit by a lack of rain.

Brazil, the world’s second-biggest exporter of soybeans and third-largest for corn, yesterday cut its outlook for the crops and may revise the estimates again after assessing damage to plants from desiccation in major producing regions.

“This may prompt the U.S. Department of Agriculture to revise its soybean output estimates lower next week,” Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker Okachi & Co., said today by phone. The USDA will update its supply and demand forecasts on Feb. 10.

Soybeans for March delivery rose 16.5 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $9.965 a bushel in electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. The contract earlier reached $9.98, the highest in almost two weeks. Corn futures gained 1 percent to $3.75 a bushel today and are poised for a fifth weekly decline.

Growers in Brazil will harvest 50.3 metric tons of corn this year, compared with a Jan. 8 forecast of 52.3 million tons and 58.7 million tons produced last year, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said yesterday. The soybean forecast was cut to 57.2 million tons from 57.8 million tons estimated last month and 60 million tons harvested in 2008.

The country may cut the forecasts for a third time as it assesses drought damage, Agriculture Minister Reinhold Stephanes said yesterday.

Chinese Drought

“For corn, the upside will be limited as we expect the USDA to raise its forecast for ending stockpiles following a significant drop in ethanol output,” Shigemoto said.

Wheat for March delivery added 1.1 percent to $5.6775 a bushel. Euronext milling wheat futures added 2.25 euros, or 1.5 percent, to 151 euros ($193) in Paris.

China raised its drought emergency alert to level one, the highest class, for the first time. About 155 million mu (10.3 million hectares) of all crops nationwide are affected, according to a statement by the Office of Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jae Hur in Singapore at jhur1@bloomberg.net





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White Sugar Advances to Four-Month High on Supply, Iraq Tender

By M. Shankar

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- White sugar rose to the highest in four months in London on a shortage of supply and plans by Iraq to buy through a tender. Robusta coffee and cocoa also gained.

The Iraqi Foodstuffs Trading Company, an affiliate of the country’s Trade Ministry, plans the tender for at least 12,500 metric tons of white sugar, F.O. Licht, a Ratzeburg, Germany- based research company, said in a report. The country consumes about 700,000 tons of sugar a year, it added.

“The company usually buys much more than the amount it tenders for,” F.O. Licht said in the report yesterday.

White sugar for May delivery, the most actively traded contact, rose $5.60, or 1.5 percent, to $382.80 a ton as of 12:40 p.m. on London’s Liffe exchange. It earlier climbed to $384.70, the highest for sugar prices since Oct. 2. The sweetener has gained 20 percent this year, outperforming the 0.8 percent drop in the CMCI Bloomberg Index of 26 raw commodities.

Raw sugar traded on ICE Futures U.S. climbed 1.1 percent to 13.12 cents a pound in New York.

Global sugar use will reach 162.1 million tons this year, exceeding supply of 158.8 million tons, according to a forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Among other agricultural commodities in London, robusta coffee for March delivery advanced $7, or 0.4 percent, to $1,656 a ton. Cocoa for May delivery rallied 12 pounds, or 0.6 percent, to 1,955 pounds ($2,865).

There’s a general “interest in soft commodities,” said Nick Hungate, a senior trader at Rabobank International in London.

To contact the reporter on this story: M. Shankar in London at mshankar@bloomberg.net





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Gold Heads for Weekly Decline in London as Rally Sparks Sales

By Nicholas Larkin

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed in London, may decline as a two-day rally leads investors to sell the metal and as a stronger dollar reduces demand for bullion as an alternative investment.

Gold, heading for a first weekly decline in three weeks, traded as high as $924.59 an ounce yesterday and reached a three- month high of $929.70 on Jan. 30. The dollar traded little changed against the euro before a report that may show U.S. unemployment in January to the highest level since 1992.

“People may be mainly taking profit after the late move yesterday,” Sagiv Peretz, a senior dealer at trading-system operator Finotec Trading U.K. Ltd., said by phone from London. Worse-than-expected jobs data may still strengthen the dollar and cause gold to fall, he said. “A lot of people are still turning to the dollar. People want to hoard cash.”

Bullion for immediate delivery added 60 cents to $915.15 an ounce at 12:16 p.m. in London. April futures gained $2, or 0.2 percent, to $916.20 in electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The metal slipped to $914 in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $920 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing. Spot prices, up 3.7 percent this year, are set for a 1.4 percent drop this week.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, extended gains to a record 867.19 metric tons yesterday. Gold assets in funds managed by ETF Securities Ltd. rose to 2.249 million ounces (70 tons) yesterday, from 2.21 million ounces Feb. 4, the company said.

Inflation Threat

“Gold remains firm as there is increasing nervousness about the global economy,” Mark O’Byrne, managing director of brokerage Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. in Dublin, wrote today in a note. “While the man in the street and the consensus is concerned about deflation, the real medium- to long-term threat is inflation.”

The loss of jobs is shattering consumer confidence and crippling spending. The Labor Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. A U.S. Treasury official yesterday said details of a financial-recovery plan aimed at reviving the economy will be announced in three days.

Among other metals for immediate delivery in London, silver added 0.3 percent to $12.8962 an ounce. Platinum rose $9.75, or 1 percent, to $986.75 an ounce, and palladium was 2.9 percent higher at $207.50 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net





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Oil Falls on Signs of Stalling OPEC Cuts, U.S. Demand Concerns

By Grant Smith

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Oil fell to the lowest in more than two weeks on signs that OPEC’s implementation of its latest supply cuts has stalled as a deepening economic slump in the U.S. threatens demand.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep oil shipments steady at a five-year low in the next four weeks, data from tanker-tracker Oil Movements showed. Unemployment in the U.S. climbed in January to the highest level since 1992 and payrolls dropped more than forecast as the recession showed no sign of abating.

“The rise in crude oil stocks is already raising doubts about OPEC’s quota discipline,” said Eugen Weinberg, a Commerzbank AG analyst in Frankfurt.

Crude oil for March delivery fell as much as $1.86, or 4.5 percent, to $39.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the lowest since the expiry of the previous month’s contract on Jan. 20. It was at $39.65 a barrel at 1:33 p.m. in London. Prices have declined 9.9 percent this year and tumbled 54 percent from a year earlier.

Brent crude for March settlement was at $45.54 a barrel, down 92 cents, on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange at 1:34 p.m. London time. The contract is trading at a $5.95 premium over futures in New York because of growing U.S. stockpiles.

The U.S. jobless rate rose to 7.6 percent, the Labor Department said in a report today. Initial applications for unemployment benefits climbed to a 26-year high, the department said yesterday.

Supply Side

“We read every week OPEC commitment is there, but we don’t see it in the data,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. “To really go above $50 the market has to start focusing on the supply side, and for now it’s ignoring it.”

OPEC is still monitoring the result of its series of production cuts to decide whether more reductions are needed at a March 15 ministerial meeting, group president Joao Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said in an interview yesterday in Luanda.

OPEC, producer of more than 40 percent of the world’s oil, will load 23.41 million barrels a day onto tankers in the four weeks to Feb. 21, unchanged from the quantity shipped in the four weeks to Jan. 24, Oil Movement said in a report yesterday.

On Dec. 17 the group agreed on output constraints that would mean reducing supplies in January by 2.2 million barrels a day from December levels. Still, the members of OPEC with production quotas managed to cut 1.05 million barrels a day of output, according to a Bloomberg News survey of producers, oil companies and industry analysts.

Falling Volatility

Oil prices have remained near the $40 level for the past five trading sessions. The 30-day historical volatility for crude oil fell to 92.28 percent today, the lowest since Dec. 19, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Crude oil may trade between $39 and $43 a barrel in New York next week as U.S. stockpiles increase and OPEC members reduce production to bolster prices.

Thirteen of 31 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 42 percent, said futures will be little changed through Feb. 13. Nine respondents, or 29 percent, forecast oil will decline and nine said there will be an increase. Last week, 38 percent of analysts expected prices to increase.

To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net





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Copper Resumes Advance in London on Outlook for Growth in China

By Claudia Carpenter

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and aluminum rose in London, resuming this week’s climb, on speculation government spending in China will speed growth and revive demand. Both metals pared gains after a report showed the U.S. lost more jobs.

Gross domestic product in China probably will expand at an annual rate of 12 percent in the current quarter after shrinking by 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, Deutsche Bank AG forecast today in a report. A second monthly gain by an index of Chinese manufacturing in January has helped copper to climb 11 percent this week and aluminum to add 8.2 percent.

There is “increased optimism over the condition of Chinese industrial demand,” Joel Crane, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in New York, wrote in the report. “Monetary and fiscal stimulus, coupled with inventory restocking, is prompting a temporary growth recovery in China this quarter.”

Copper for delivery in three months climbed $170, or 5.1 percent, to $3,500 a metric ton at 1:55 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange after adding as much as 6.5 percent earlier. Aluminum gained $27, or 1.9 percent, to $1,460 a ton, paring an advance of as much as 3.1 percent. Both metals fell yesterday after rising in the prior three sessions.

Prices for copper are likely to rebound on demand from Asia, said Zambian Vice President George Kunda at a mining conference in Livingston, Zambia.

U.S. companies cut 598,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department in Washington said. Economists forecast a drop of 540,000 jobs, the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

The three-month nickel contract rose $224, or 2 percent, to $11,674 a ton. Nickel, used in stainless steel, has dropped 57 percent in the past year. Posco, Asia’s biggest stainless-steel maker, cut prices as much as 14 percent this month to reflect lower raw-material costs and spur demand.

Lead increased $26, or 2.3 percent, to $1,171 a ton, and zinc gained $16, or 1.4 percent, to $1,159 a ton. Tin rose $365, or 3.4 percent, to $11,170 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net





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Brazilian Stocks Advance on Commodity Demand, Bank Speculation

By Alexander Ragir

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian stocks rose for a fourth day on optimism government measures worldwide will ease the financial crisis and bolster demand for the nation’s commodity exports.

Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, rose 2.3 percent to 32.08 reais. The Bovespa index gained 1.1 percent to 41,559.93 at 8:29 a.m. New York time.

The Bloomberg Base Metals 3-Month Price Commodity Index gained 3 percent to 116.96, extending this week’s advance to 7.2 percent.

Gross domestic product in China, the biggest consumer of steel and iron-ore, probably will expand at an annual rate of 12 percent in the current quarter after shrinking by 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, Deutsche Bank AG forecast today in a report.

A U.S. Treasury official yesterday said Secretary Timothy Geithner will make a speech on Feb. 9 and President Barack Obama will hold a news conference that will address a stimulus package.

The plan is likely to emphasize guarantees of toxic assets over proposals to create a so-called aggregator bank that would remove them from balance sheets, according to people familiar with the plan.

The Bovespa rose 11 percent this year on speculation government efforts to support growth and falling interest rates will help the economy expand and increase demand for equity.

The gauge tumbled 41 percent in 2008 as credit losses and writedowns topped $1 trillion in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the U.S., Japan and Europe fell into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio de Janeiro at aragir@bloomberg.net





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Furse May Leave LSE Post as CEO Search Targets Rolet

By Nandini Sukumar

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Clara Furse’s eight-year reign at London Stock Exchange Group Plc may end this month.

Xavier Rolet, who ran Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in France, emerged yesterday as the leading candidate to replace her, according to two people familiar with the situation.

The announcement of a new CEO may come as early as February, the people said. Rolet, 49, who left Lehman after Nomura Holdings Inc. acquired its European investment bank, will likely be presented to the board by the LSE’s nomination committee, said the people, who declined to be identified before a formal decision. The Financial Services Authority, which regulates U.K. markets, must approve the appointment.

Rolet, a former equity trading executive at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., oversaw customer management in Lehman’s London office before moving to Paris to oversee the French business. He helped run European equity trading at Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse First Boston and Dresdner Kleinwort Benson before joining Lehman Brothers in 2000.

The LSE, Europe’s oldest independent exchange, hired a recruiting firm last year to find a successor to Furse, according to a person familiar with the matter. Shares of the exchange lost 74 percent last year on concern falling stock prices and competition from electronic exchanges would erode profit.

New trading platforms such as Turquoise, Chi-X Europe Ltd. and the European units of Bats Exchange and Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. wrested away about 25 percent of trading in FTSE 100 stocks from the exchange, forcing it to cut fees.

2009 Share Slump

LSE shares added 1.5 percent to 449.5 pence at 8:48 a.m. in London, trimming their 2009 decline to 12 percent.

There’s an “unpalatable cocktail facing LSE,” said Bruce Hamilton, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, in a Jan. 27 note in which he cut the exchange to “underweight” from “equal- weight.” The “risks of a sustained downturn in volumes, a la Japan in the 1990s, and the difficulty of earnings recovery given structural pressures on pricing and market share make us cautious.”

In September, the LSE’s trading system broke down on the day European equities posted their biggest gain in five months, hurting clients who trade an average $17.5 billion each session.

The exchange, which started in 1698 when a group of brokers met in Jonathan’s Coffee House to trade stocks and commodities, hired Furse, 51, in 2001 after shareholders forced Gavin Casey to resign following a failed attempt to merge with Frankfurt- based Deutsche Boerse AG.

The first woman to serve as CEO of the LSE, Furse rebuffed five takeover offers in two years and bought the operator of the Milan stock exchange in 2007. LSE has spurned takeover approaches since December 2004 from Euronext NV, Deutsche Boerse and twice from New York-based Nasdaq Stock Market Inc.

Rolet was educated at the Ecole Superieure de Commerce in France and has a masters in business administration from Columbia University.

LSE spokesman Patrick Humphris declined to comment.

-- With reporting by Jacqueline Simmons in Paris. Editors: Chris Nagi, Eric Martin

To contact the reporters on this story: Nandini Sukumar in London at nsukumar@bloomberg.net





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