Economic Calendar

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Asia Session Recap

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Forex.com | Feb 17 09 06:42 GMT |

Today the center stage in Asia belongs to the EUR/USD and its dramatic descent to lows not seen in almost two months as stop losses greased the tracks on a ride from just over 1.2800 to depths just under 1.2640…The triggering of these stop losses in a thinned environment were still based on fears that the unstable nature of Eastern Europe could continue to undermine the single European currency. Many Western European banks had been gobbling up the old Eastern Bloc's banks due to the regions huge credit growth. This is now a potential straw that breaks the camels back so to speak, and the market is spooked by the possibility of Eastern banks bringing down the West. Not helping the situation in Europe is the view that further, deeper rate cuts are vital to keep within the global bell curve. EUR/JPY dropped like a stone as well on the Euro weakness, falling from 117.45 to lows of just near 116.40 before a nice rebound on Yen selling. The pair is near 117.00as of this writing.

The US Dollar was the big benefiter of the Euro woes, as it gained some nice real estate across the board….GBP/USD hit a 1.4184 low, and AUD/USD was pummeled from the 0.6530's to near 0.6410, while USD/CHF move up a handle and a half to 1.1745 highs, and USD/CAD moved just under a handle to top the charts at a pip or two over 1.2500.

If the Euro was the center stage today, than the side show was no doubt Japan, and the resignation of Finance Minister Nakagawa amidst allegations that he was intoxicated at the G7 meeting over the weekend. (A video of the event is available for your viewing pleasure on the internet…) With the resignation announcement, Japan's economy in turmoil, and Prime Minister Aso under fire, USD/JPY flew from early 91.63 lows to highs over the 92.75 levels.

There is a lot on the plate for the FX markets, including German and Euro Zone ZEW Surveys, UK CPI, and Euro Zone Trade balance later in London. Past that, in the US on Tuesday, the markets are looking to the open of Wall Street after a three day weekend and the turnaround plans set to be presented by US automakers to congress.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session):

2/17/2009 6:00 JN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) JAN F -84.40% - -
2/17/2009 8:15 SZ Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) DEC -1.40% - -
2/17/2009 9:30 UK CPI (MoM) JAN -0.40% -1.00%
2/17/2009 9:30 UK CPI (YoY) JAN 3.10% 2.70%
2/17/2009 9:30 UK Core CPI YOY JAN 1.10% 1.00%
2/17/2009 9:30 UK Retail Price Index JAN 212.9 209.9
2/17/2009 9:30 UK RPI (MoM) JAN -1.40% -1.40%
2/17/2009 9:30 UK RPI (YoY) JAN 0.90% 0.00%
2/17/2009 9:30 UK RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) JAN 2.80% 2.30%
2/17/2009 9:30 UK DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) DEC -8.60% -10.10%
2/17/2009 10:00 GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) FEB -31 -25
2/17/2009 10:00 GE Zew Survey (Current Situation) FEB -77.1 -82
2/17/2009 10:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance DEC -7.0B -6.7B
2/17/2009 10:00 EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) FEB -30.8 -27.5
2/17/2009 10:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa DEC -4.9B -5.3B

Forex.com
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Asian Market Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | Feb 17 09 06:49 GMT |

Broad-based Risk Aversion Boosts USD to Multi-week Highs as Equities Plummet and Investors Flee to Gold ; Japan's Finance Minister Yields to Pressure to Step Down; Dovish RBA Meeting Minutes Sink Aussie Equities, AUD

With US financial markets closed in observance of President's Day, thin holiday trading saw magnified volatility in Asian hours as risk aversion dominated sentiment, spreading from currency markets to equities. Concerns over the financial sector in Europe - where Moody's warned over Eastern banks' troubles potentially impacting their Western "parents" with possible credit rating cuts - translated into steep losses in the Euro. Single currency bearish bias was also magnified by earlier comments from German Finance Min Steinbrueck warning that Ireland is in a difficult spot and may need a coordinated EZ rescue, sending EUR/USD down to levels not seen since December 8th. A breach of 1.27 February support in EUR/USD unleashed a technical wave of USD buying, sending the pair below 1.2650. GBP and CHF followed suit to multi-session lows against USD, with the former falling below 1.42 and USD/CHF rising to 1.1740.

Embattled Tokyo markets punished by double-digit Q4 GDP contraction in the prior session saw a fresh wave of selling in both Japan's equities and currency. The prospect for a near term recovery were also grim, as Japanese press noted that the government may be forced to lower its view of employment and personal consumption in its February report for fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, facing growing pressure from his own party regarding his conduct at the G7, Japan's Finance Minister Nakagawa yieled to opposition and announced his resignation as soon as the lower house of Parliament passed a budget bill. Nikkei225 traded down to lows not seen since late October, dropping as much as 1.7% before closing down by 1.3%. Chipmaker Elpida was one of the more heavily sold names as general sector weakness added to profit-taking after the company's Taiwan M&A related gains last week. Likewise, Japan's currency, normally boosted by risk aversion, was also notably lower against the surging USD, falling deeper to 5-week lows after the Nakagawa announcement. JPY gains against the falling EUR and GBP were also scaled back on the news, with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY rising toward unchanged on the day levels.

In Sydney, traders heeded the dovish tone set by the early February meeting minutes at the RBA. Cutting cash rate by 100bps, central bankers saw the need for a substantial rate cut due to strong global headwinds and down-trending inflation. Furthermore, RBA forecasted a flat Q4 GDP and weak retail sector demand, before noting improvement in credit markets and a quicker pace by consumers in paying off debt. Australia's more forward looking economic data was also fairly upbeat. Q4 housing affordability index registered a highest level in five years, and a rise in personal loans confirmed greater increase in lending trend cited by RBA. S&P/ASX ended the session near lows down 1.5% however, while AUD/USD traded down to early February lows near 0.64.

Korea's markets saw the greatest regional weakness, with the Kospi leading the regional indices decline to a 4% session loss. Trading in the financial sector remained heavy after Woori CEO appealed for state aid in the prior session. Chip sector further added to index woes, with Hynix falling by 5% after a downgrade at JP Morgan. South Korea's Vice Fin Minister attempted to contain the damage, suggesting the economy may recover in 2009. Nonetheless, volatility here had also translated into FX, as USD/KRW rose to 2-month highs prompting rumors of intervention by BOK.

Spot Gold is trading sharply higher in Asia, after moving to a fresh 7-month high earlier during the session. Some dealers noted that stops were triggered after $950/oz was breached on financial sector concern from Europe. In other gold related news, Russia's first Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev noted that the country central bank's gold holdings increased and that Russia was seeking to continue this tendency this year. Crude oil is lower and at the time of writing trading below $37/bbl, tracking the declines in equities. In terms of oil supplies related news, the head of the IEA Tanaka warned OPEC on further supply cuts and said there would be a supply crunch, if the global economy begins to recover in 2010. Russia's Deputy PM Sechin said that his country may stockpile up to 16M tons of crude oil and products in a move to provide assistance to OPEC. Goldman Sachs noted that the fast OPEC production cuts have helped rebalance the market faster than expected. In other oil supplies related news, Exxon Mobil disclosed that in 2008 its proven reserves rose by 1.5B barrels or 7% y/y to a total of 22.8B. In terms of oil demand, South Korea, the world's fifth largest oil importer, is planning to push back its plan to increase its state oil reserves by 2-3 yrs from the originally planned 2010. Additionally, China's Jan diesel imports declined by 88% y/y, while gasoline imports dropped by 70% y/y.

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

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Dodd’s Pay Limit Makes Wall Street Face Pandit’s ‘New Reality’

By Bradley Keoun and Elizabeth Hester

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street bankers chafing at new limits on executive pay may have to accept the fact that the U.S. government is prepared to remake the nation’s financial system without them.

Bankers and their supporters, mostly executive-pay consultants, say the restrictions championed by U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd will prompt an exodus of talent. The response from politicians after banks lost $820 billion: So be it.

“Populism has completely taken control of the process,” said Jeff Davis, director of research at Howe Barnes Hoefer & Arnett, a Chicago-based brokerage. “It’s borderline pitchforks in the street.”

Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, added the limits to the $787 billion fiscal stimulus bill approved by Congress on Feb. 13. President Barack Obama plans to sign the stimulus bill into law in Denver today, said his spokeswoman, Jen Psaki. Dodd has brushed aside concern the provision would weaken banks by driving away talent, saying there are plenty of potential replacements.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 will force the top five executives at banks that get at least $500 million of bailout funds, and the 20 most highly paid employees at those firms, to forgo cash bonuses, according to an analysis by the Washington-based government-relations practice of Blank Rome LLP. The bankers can get stock bonuses, as long as the stock is restricted until their employer repays bailout funds, according to the law firm.

10 Times Income

The restrictions are on top of the $500,000 salary cap that the U.S. Treasury said it would impose on banks that require additional government assistance from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. That limit is 10 times the household median income in 2007 and 25 percent higher than President Obama’s $400,000 salary.

“This latest bill puts the banks with TARP money in a real bind,” said Roy Smith, a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner. While those few that can repay the government will race to do so, others “will not be able to recruit from the top manager pool.”

Administration officials decided not to fight Dodd’s provision because of the possibility it would have to go back to Congress to seek more bailout funds, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Foreign Rivals

“My main concern, around compensation for instance, is it’s okay to do the things that are being talked about at the very top,” Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis said at a hearing last week called by Representative Barney Frank. “But if you start to go too low in your organization you will run off key talent to foreign competitors.”

Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack and Wells Fargo & Co. CEO John Stumpf said at the hearing that they agreed with Lewis. Mack told Congress his firm introduced a three-year clawback provision to tie employee pay to that of long-term performance. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein said his goal was to “keep the alignment of our people with the fortunes of the firm.”

Of the eight bank CEOs at the hearing, Lewis drew the highest 2008 salary at $1.5 million, while Blankfein took the lowest at $600,000.

‘Catastrophic’ Loss

Alan Johnson, founder of Johnson Associates Inc., a New York-based compensation consultant, said the rules may be “catastrophic” to Wall Street’s talent base. Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, used the same word on Feb. 9 to describe the potential fallout of a failure by Congress to pass an economic-stimulus package.

“You’re saying to the banks that you can’t compensate your revenue producers like you used to,” said Christopher Kelly, a New York-based partner and head of the capital markets practice at law firm Jones Day. “These are guys who have relationships. They have lots of value.”

The new pay caps have made top-producing Wall Street employees “nervous,” and those who can find other jobs will probably leave, said James Reda, who heads an eponymous compensation-consulting firm in New York. “Why would you want to be a political football?” he said.

Such arguments don’t dissuade Dodd, a Democrat from Connecticut, who said last week that “there are many qualified replacements” for Wall Street executives who quit. “Some very high earners will have to adjust compensation expectations and maintain a different sense of proportion than in the past,” Dodd said in a Feb. 14 statement.

Merrill Bonuses

Multi-million dollar pay packages made Merrill Lynch & Co. an easy target for New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. He told Frank in a Feb. 10 letter that Merrill had “secretly and prematurely” awarded $3.6 billion in bonuses just before the firm’s Jan. 1 sale to Bank of America Corp. The top four recipients split $121 million, or an average of about $30 million.

In North Carolina, Attorney General Roy Cooper said he was “appalled” to learn that Charlotte-based Bank of America, the recipient of $45 billion in rescue funds, paid bonuses to employees last year.

Some New York officials support the bill’s pay reforms, even though Wall Street’s home state would suffer the brunt of lower tax revenue as incomes drop.

‘New Breed’ Sought

“In light of the fact that taxpayer dollars are being used to help a lot of these companies out,” the plan appears to be “reasonable,” said Dennis Tompkins, spokesman for New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. “The long-term goal has to be restoring sustainability and long-term profitability to Wall Street, and this looks like a good step in that direction.”

Congress is seeking a “new breed of executive willing to do the job at the new pay scale,” said Frank Glassner, managing director of San Francisco-based Veritas Executive Compensation Consultants LLC. “There are truly talented people who would take on the job with lower pay, and they’re the people you want turning these banks around,” he said.

That group may include Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit, who said at Frank’s hearing last week that he would take a $1 salary, or 8.3 cents a month, until the bank turns profitable. Citigroup, based in New York, reported a record $18.7 billion net loss last year and needed $45 billion of rescue funds.

‘New Reality’

“I get the new reality and I will make sure Citi gets it as well,” Pandit said.

Bank of America’s Lewis, asked at a shareholder meeting in December whether he would work for $1 a year for the next three years, replied, “No.” He noted that Bank of America earned $5.8 billion during the first nine months of 2008.

Spokesmen at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup either declined to comment or didn’t return calls seeking comment on the pay restrictions.

The intangible rewards of public service may not be enough to sustain Wall Street employees who go there to get rich, said Samuel Hayes, professor emeritus of investment banking at Harvard Business School.

“For a year I can see the top people saying, ‘We’ll swallow our sense of justice and go with it,’” Hayes said. “But they certainly wouldn’t stay out of a sense of duty for very long.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Bradley Keoun in New York at bkeoun@bloomberg.net; Elizabeth Hester in New York at ehester@bloomberg.net.





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Short-Term Forex Technical Outlook: EUR/USD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DailyFX | Feb 17 09 06:24 GMT |

Currency Pair: EUR/USD
Chart: 60 Min Charts
Short-Term Bias: Bearish

Financial uncertainties paired with fears of a deepening recession throughout the euro-region has certainly weighed on the single-currency throughout the month, and the EURUSD is likely to face increased selling pressures over the coming months as market participants expect the European Central Bank to continue its easing cycle in March. After reaching a low of 1.2329 in October, the EURUSD snapped back to reach a high of 1.4720 on 12/18, and has traded within a broad range over the past month, but earlier this morning the pair broke below support at 1.2700, which favors a bearish forecast for the pair. Over the next few hours of trading, we may see the euro-dollar continue to move lower, but as the pair remains heavily oversold, I would expect to see a short-term retracement to follow over the week to fill-in the gap from the 120 SMA.

DailyFX

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ADB Says It’s Desirable to Ease Rules on Asian Currency Swaps

By Arijit Ghosh

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Asian Development Bank said it’s “desirable” to ease restrictions on the amount nations can swap under an currency accord between Southeast Asian countries, Japan, China and South Korea as the global recession deepens.

Finance ministers from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the three northern neighbors will meet in Thailand on Feb. 22 to expand a pool of foreign-exchange reserves to protect their currencies. They may also ease rules that require economic austerity measures to borrow 80 percent in a currency swap under the so-called Chiang Mai Initiative, ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said.

Easing the conditions linked to the International Monetary Fund’s lending programs will enlarge the amount countries such as Indonesia can borrow amid rising borrowing costs, slowing the depreciation of its currency. The rupiah has plunged 22 percent in the past six months, making it the worst performing after South Korea’s won among 10 Asian currencies outside Japan.

“The easing of IMF linkages could be desirable,” Kuroda said in an interview in Jakarta yesterday. “It’s a safety net and markets have calmed down partly because of swap arrangements outside the Chiang Mai Initiative as well as enlargement of the initiative.”

South Korea expanded its currency swap agreements with China and Japan, the region’s two biggest economies, on Dec. 12. India and Japan also signed an accord to swap as much as $3 billion of currencies in June.

Currency Swaps

The U.S. Federal Reserve extended its agreement to provide $30 billion in U.S. currency to the Bank of Korea by six months until the end of October, South Korea’s central bank said Feb. 4.

The IMF’s new Short-Term Liquidity Facility, which enables lending by certain countries without conditions, will also help in easing rules under the Chiang Mai Initiative, Kuroda said. Only countries in good standing with the IMF qualify for the short-term lending program.

Still, Indonesia, which exited an IMF program in 2003 and repaid the lender early, may not borrow from the IMF because of political considerations, said Fauzi Ichsan, chief economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Jakarta. Indonesia will elect legislators in April, which will be followed by a presidential poll in July.

“Ideally, you could go to the Fed but the concern is they could turn around and say ‘why don’t you go to the IMF,’” said Ichsan. The Chiang Mai Initiative “would help as Bank Indonesia seeks ammunition.”

Risk Premium

At the Feb. 22 meeting finance ministers will probably expand the pool of foreign-currency reserves to $120 billion from $80 billion, Kuroda said.

A $5.5 billion so-called standby loan from Japan, Australia, the World Bank and the ADB and $4 billion of proposed bond sales may help shore up Indonesia’s reserves, central bank Governor Boediono said on Feb. 4.

“The bond market has seized and the risk premium faced by emerging economies in Asia has jumped,” Kuroda said. “Even those countries who have no balance-of-payment deficit, when their governments try to borrow to finance long-term development projects they face prohibitively high risk premiums.”

Indonesia’s foreign-exchange holdings of $50.9 billion as of Jan. 31 are the 10th biggest in Asia and less than half those of Thailand.

“The reason why the rupiah is volatile is because the supply of dollars is drying up,” said Standard Chartered’s Ichsan.

To contact the reporters on this story: Arijit Ghosh in Jakarta at aghosh@bloomberg.net





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Singapore Exports Fall the Most in at Least 22 Years

By Shamim Adam

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s exports fell the most in at least 22 years in January as the deepening global recession pared demand for electronics and other goods in all of the island’s 10 largest markets.

Non-oil domestic exports dropped 34.8 percent from a year earlier, after contracting 20.8 percent in December, the trade promotion agency said in a statement today. Economists had expected a 34.5 percent decline.

Singapore’s economy is in its sharpest and deepest recession in the country’s history, battered by declining orders for electronics goods and pharmaceuticals from its biggest customers in the U.S. and Europe. The government has cut corporate taxes for the second time in three years and said it will tap its reserves to fund record spending to revive growth.

“There is simply no demand,” said Alvin Liew, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. “Better days will come at the earliest in the last few months of 2009.”

Singapore expects overseas shipments to fall as much as 11 percent in 2009, the government said last month, after a 7.9 percent decline last year that was the worst performance since 2001. Standard Chartered predicts a drop in exports of as much as 20 percent this year, Liew said.

Singapore’s exports fell a seasonally adjusted 3.2 percent last month from December, when they slid a revised 11.4 percent, today’s report showed. Economists had expected a 5 percent decline.

Electronics shipments plunged 38.4 percent in January from a year earlier, the 24th consecutive drop, following a 25.4 percent decline in December. Sales of electronics products by companies including Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd. were worth S$3.85 billion ($2.5 billion) last month.

Non-electronics shipments, which include petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals, fell 32.4 percent in January from a year earlier. Pharmaceutical shipments dropped 4.5 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net





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Obama’s Economic Stimulus Bill Most Ambitious Since Roosevelt

By Matthew Benjamin and Julianna Goldman

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama today signs into law one of the largest pieces of legislation in U.S. history, a $787 billion behemoth that combines massive tax breaks and government spending designed to resuscitate the moribund U.S. economy.

The size of the new law and its speed moving through Congress -- it was approved within weeks of Obama’s inauguration -- place it among the most significant legislative accomplishments since President Franklin Roosevelt overhauled the U.S. government in his first 100 days, historians and political analysts say.

“We have plenty of big, complicated pieces of legislation that come down the pike, but this bill is unprecedented,” said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent political analyst in Washington.

The package contains roughly $300 billion in tax breaks for individuals and businesses, more than $250 billion in direct aid to distressed states and individuals, and almost $200 billion to modernize and improve the nation’s infrastructure. Obama, who will sign the legislation in Denver, the city where he accepted his party’s nomination in August, said it will save or create about 3.5 million jobs.

The measure is just one part of Obama’s three-pronged strategy to revive the U.S. economy. His administration has already revamped a $700 billion financial rescue, passed under George W. Bush, designed to stabilize shaky banks and restart lending to businesses and consumers. Tomorrow Obama will announce extraordinary measures to stem record home foreclosures and arrest the rapid erosion in housing values.

FDR Comparison

“No one’s going to have 100 days like Franklin Roosevelt again, with 15 major pieces of legislation,” said Allan Lichtman, a political history professor at American University in Washington. “But leaving aside that impossible comparison, Obama’s accomplishments stack up very well.”

Even with the size of the stimulus and other measures, Obama, 47, is seeking to temper expectations about how quickly the economic slump can be brought to a conclusion.

“This historic step won’t be the end of what we do to turn our economy around, but rather the beginning,” Obama said in his weekly address on Feb. 14. “The problems that led us into this crisis are deep and widespread, and our response must be equal to the task.”

Payroll Tax Cut

The stimulus plan’s costliest item is a $400 payroll tax cut for individuals and $800 for couples, at an overall cost of $116 billion. Retirees, disabled veterans and others who don’t pay payroll taxes will get a $250 payment. The bill also includes a one-year fix to the alternative minimum tax, costing $70 billion, which will prevent some taxpayers from having to pay extra income taxes this year.

There are $10 billion in breaks for businesses, as well, including faster write-offs for equipment purchased in 2009 and incentives for companies that produce and invest in renewable energy resources such as solar and wind power. A business tax break pushed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce will ease near-term tax burdens on companies and buyout firms that restructure debt without entering bankruptcy.

The stimulus plan provides a half-trillion dollars for jobless benefits, renewable energy projects, highway construction, food stamps, broadband Internet access, Pell college tuition grants, high-speed rail projects and scores of other programs.

Debt Limit

To fund itself, the bill raises the nation’s debt limit to about $12 trillion. The cost of the legislation will be spread over 10 years, increasing the budget deficit by $185 billion in fiscal 2009, which ends Sept. 30, according to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office. The biggest impact, about $400 billion, will come in fiscal 2010.

“There are few times members of Congress are asked to vote for a bill of this size,” said Stan Collender, a former House and Senate Budget Committee analyst. “This is not something you see every day in American history.”

Another unprecedented aspect of the bill is new restrictions on Wall Street pay. They go well beyond the $500,000 cap announced by Obama last month, by restricting bonuses for senior executives and the next 20 highest-compensated employees at companies that receive or have received more than $500 million from the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program. Bonuses and other incentive pay at companies that took less money will be limited on a sliding scale.

Curbing Bonuses

That may curb bonuses at companies such as Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., each of which received $25 billion from TARP, though the administration will have roughly a year to determine how the pay restrictions are implemented. It’s unclear what will happen at companies like Merrill Lynch, now a unit of Bank of America Corp., which awarded $3.6 billion in bonuses in December.

The Obama administration has expressed reservations about the new pay limits on concerns they will prevent some banks from participating in government stabilization programs or make others rush to exit them, potentially hampering efforts to unfreeze credit markets. So far TARP has injected $195.6 billion in more than 330 U.S. financial institutions.

Pay caps aside, Obama’s administration is touting the bill’s historical significance.

“We’ve passed the most comprehensive sweeping legislation as it relates to economic activity, ever, in a three-week period of time,” White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel told reporters last week.

Energy Tour

Obama will sign the bill at approximately 1 p.m. Denver time, just before the close of the financial markets. Before the signing ceremony at the Denver Museum of Nature and Science, Obama will tour the solar panel instillation on the building’s roof, highlighting the $37.5 billion investment in energy.

The stimulus measure’s size and scope are matched only by the crisis it was designed to address.

Denver’s unemployment rate is 6.3 percent, up from 4.4 percent one year ago. Home values in the Denver-Aurora area are down 19 percent compared with a year ago, and 1,023 homes were foreclosed in the month of December, according to data provided by the White House.

The U.S. labor market has lost 3.6 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, while the unemployment rate has soared to 7.6 percent from 4.4 percent two years ago, with many economists expecting it to rise to near 10 percent.

Companies from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to General Motors Corp., have announced cuts to their payrolls, underscoring the broad reach of the recession. FedEx Corp., the second-largest U.S. package-delivery company, said it will eliminate 900 jobs in its freight unit.

Working in Phases

Economists say the best scenario is that the stimulus plan will work in phases, first providing relief to cash-strapped consumers, businesses and states, followed by a job-creating lift from the spending on roads, schools, utilities and public transit.

“The hope is, with the stimulus, that we actually stop losing jobs by the end of this year,” said Josh Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington research group aligned with labor unions.

Still, he and other economists say the recession is likely to grow worse through 2009. All of Obama’s programs will need to work in concert, they say, to bring it to an end.

The economy and the financial system need help in tandem, said Alan Blinder, a Princeton University economist and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. “If we don’t do both, we’re cooked.”

For Related News and Information: Treasury stories: NI TRE Credit crunch page: WWCC Government relief programs: GGRP Winners, Losers in TARP: BTCPP MRR4 U.S. Economic Forecasts: ECFC Federal Reserve monetary policy: FOMC





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German Investor Confidence May Rise a Fourth Month in February

By Simone Meier

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- German investor confidence probably improved for a fourth month in February after the government stepped up efforts to bolster the economy and the European Central Bank signaled it will cut interest rates to a record low, a survey of economists shows.

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research will say its index of investor and analyst expectations rose to minus 25 from minus 31 in January, according to the median of 37 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The index reached a record low of minus 63.9 in July. ZEW releases the report, which aims to predict economic developments six months ahead, at 11 a.m. in Mannheim.

ECB policy makers say they have room to drop borrowing costs further as the euro area battles its worst recession since World War II. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition on Jan. 12 agreed to spend about 80 billion euros ($102 billion) over two years to boost the German economy, the largest in the 16-nation bloc. Germany’s benchmark DAX share index has risen 4 percent in the past three weeks.

“Analysts hope that the second half won’t be quite as bleak as the beginning of the year following central bank and government measures to counter the crisis,” said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. “Still, nobody expects a marked economic improvement.”

ZEW’s gauge of current conditions will drop to minus 82 from minus 77.1, the survey of economists shows.

‘Super Difficult’

German gross domestic product slumped 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the third, the biggest drop in 22 years. The economy will shrink 2.5 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Porsche SE, the maker of the 911 sports car, said Jan. 30 that first-half sales plunged 14 percent. Volkswagen AG’s Audi luxury division expects a “super difficult” year, Chief Executive Officer Rupert Stadler said on Feb. 3.

The ECB has cut its key rate by 2.25 percentage points since early October to 2 percent, the most aggressive easing since the bank took control of monetary policy a decade ago. ECB council member Axel Weber said on Feb. 14 that the bank may “continue to use the room to maneuver on interest rates.”

Economists expect the ECB to reduce its benchmark to a record low of 1.5 percent at its next policy meeting on March 5.

Crude oil prices have dropped more than 70 percent from a July peak of $147 a barrel, damping inflation and increasing consumers’ and companies’ purchasing power.

Merkel’s stimulus program, which includes tax cuts and infrastructure investment, may also help revive the economy later this year.

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest bank, said earlier this month that revenue rose “significantly” in January from a year earlier. “With all the appropriate caution, this gives us confidence for 2009,” Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said. “We are certain that Deutsche Bank will emerge from this crisis stronger.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Frankfurt at smeier@bloomberg.net.





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Australia Central Bank Says Rate Cuts to Stoke Growth

By Jacob Greber and Tracy Withers

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian central bank’s decision to cut interest rates to a 45-year low and A$42 billion ($27 billion) in government stimulus spending will help stoke economic growth later this year, policy makers said.

The measures will “help to cushion the economy from the contractionary forces coming from abroad,” and should be “conducive to stronger demand later in the year,” the Reserve Bank of Australia said in minutes of its Feb. 3 meeting, released in Sydney today. Still, it said the stimulus will “take time to be effective” and will have “only a modest effect on the near-term.”

The nation’s currency fell on speculation Governor Glenn Stevens will cut rates again next month to prevent the economy from contracting in the first half of this year as global demand for exports drops. Stevens and his board slashed the benchmark lending rate two weeks ago by one percentage point to 3.25 percent. As well, the government will begin distributing cash handouts to families of up to A$900 from next month.

A March reduction in interest rates “is very much alive, probably a 50-50 call and they will cut if sentiment remains subdued,” said Adam Carr, a senior economist at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney.

“While domestic economic conditions may justify a wait- and-see approach to assess the effectiveness of cuts so far, the bank is also saying near-term prospects” are weaker for the global economy, Carr added.

Currency Falls

The Australian dollar fell to 64.53 U.S. cents at 12:48 p.m. in Sydney from 65.14 cents before the report was released. The yield on the two-year government bond dropped 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 2.74 percent. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 stock index shed 1.1 percent to 3477.90.

Monetary and fiscal policy moves mean a “very significant macroeconomic stimulus had been applied to the domestic economy,” today’s minutes said.

The bank’s five rate cuts in the last six months had occurred “relatively early in the business cycle and lending rates in many cases would soon be at generational lows,” the statement said.

“A quiet confidence is being expressed by the Reserve Bank board,” said Craig James, a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “There is no urgent need to stimulate the economy, there has been enough put out there.”

Australia’s economic growth was probably “broadly flat in the December quarter, a relatively good result in comparison with other developed nations,” the bank said today.

Bank Forecasts

Gross domestic product expanded 0.1 percent in the third quarter, the weakest pace in eight years. Figures for the last three months of 2008 will be published on March 4.

Central bank officials cut their forecasts for economic growth and inflation earlier this month as demand for exports declines amid deepening recessions in Japan, the U.S., and Europe.

Gross domestic product will rise 0.25 percent in the 12 months through June, compared to a November prediction of 1.5 percent, the bank said on Feb. 6.

“The primary backdrop to members’ policy discussion this month was the marked deterioration in world economic conditions late in 2008,” today’s minutes said.

Japan’s economy shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, a report showed yesterday. The U.K. economy will contract 3.3 percent this year as the credit famine plunges the nation deeper into the worst recession in almost 30 years, the Confederation of British Industry said on Feb. 16.

‘More Resilient’

China, Australia’s largest trade partner, said on Feb. 11 that exports fell last month by the most in almost 13 years, tumbling 17.5 percent, as demand dried up in the U.S. and Europe.

Australia is being “affected by these global events, though, to date, the Australian economy had been more resilient than other industrial economies,” today’s minutes said.

“Nevertheless, the headwinds from the global economy were very strong and would continue to have a significant negative effect on the domestic economy in the near term,” they added.

The central bank said on Feb. 6 that Australia’s jobless rate will “increase materially over the year ahead” as falling prices for resources, including coal and iron ore, trigger a 20 percent drop in earnings from exports.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, said last month it will cut 3,400 jobs in Australia as it shuts a nickel mine, closes part of a refinery and reduces coking coal output by as much as 15 percent.

Job Losses

The nation’s jobless rate rose to 4.8 percent in January, the highest level since June 2006, business confidence tumbled in to a record low, advertisements for job vacancies slumped for a ninth month and consumer confidence declined this month, recent reports showed.

Home-loan approvals jumped in December by the most in almost nine years, stoked by demand from first-home buyers after the government tripled a grant for new homes to A$21,000, a report showed last week.

Investors have a 100 percent expectation the central bank will cut the benchmark rate on March 3 by half a percentage point, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on swaps trading.

To contact the reporter for this story: Jacob Greber in Sydney at jgreber@bloomberg.net





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China’s ‘Soft-Power’ Strategy Threatened by Obama, Slow Growth

By Dune Lawrence

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has touted her approach to diplomacy as “smart power.” That’s nothing new for China, which has employed economic, political and cultural persuasion under President Hu Jintao to build its image as a responsible world leader.

Now China’s gains as a regional partner and potential counter to U.S. influence are threatened by a slowdown in growth that may reduce its economic clout. At the same time, President Barack Obama’s pledge to reverse Bush-era policies that diminished America’s authority creates added competition for China’s “soft power” -- a phrase coined by Harvard professor Joseph Nye.

The changes may expose China’s communist government to more scrutiny as the country’s leaders launch a reported 45 billion yuan ($6.6 billion) program to expand the reach and impact of its state-run media.

“If you want to promote something, you have to make sure the thing you’re promoting is acceptable to other countries,” says Zheng Yongnian, director of the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore. “Soft power means other parties accept your values.”

While China has clocked nearly 10 percent annual growth for three decades and is now the world’s third-largest economy, the influence its money can buy has been offset by distrust among some nations of its political system.

Image Problems

Hu’s “peaceful development” strategy -- the pillar of foreign policy since he took power in 2003 -- reflects an attempt to overcome lingering image problems created by the Tiananmen Square crackdown on student demonstrators in 1989. It’s also meant to neutralize perceptions of China as a military threat, spurred by territorial aggression in the South China Sea in the 1990s and defense spending that rose an average of 15.9 percent a year between 1998 and 2007, according to the Chinese government.

In the past six years, China has helped drive multilateral negotiations to reduce nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, and promoted itself in Africa with a promise in 2006 to provide $5 billion in loans and credits and to double development aid by this year. In Southeast Asia, it is working to create a free-trade zone that would eliminate levies covering 93 percent of its imports from the region.

Hu, 66, has also focused on cultural soft power, telling party leaders in an October 2007 speech that it is “a factor of growing significance in the competition in overall national strength.”

Record TV Viewers

The government has established 295 Confucius Institutes in 78 countries to teach Chinese history and language, and it spent an estimated $70 billion to host the 2008 Summer Olympics, which attracted a record 4.7 billion television viewers worldwide.

China’s new place at the global table is underscored by the appointments of Margaret Chan as head of the World Health Organization in 2006 and Justin Lin as chief economist of the World Bank last year: They are the first Chinese to hold top positions in such prominent international organizations.

Still, positive views of China’s influence have slipped six percentage points in the past year, according to a BBC World Service survey of public opinion in 21 countries released Feb. 6. China’s positive rating fell to 39 percent, while its negative rating rose seven points to 40 percent.

Meanwhile, views of the U.S. as a positive influence increased to 40 percent from 35 percent in the poll, conducted following Obama’s election between November 21, 2008, and February 1, 2009. America’s negative rating declined to 43 percent from 47 percent. The margin of error varied by country.

Policy Overhaul

Obama, 47, has promised to reverse the decline in America’s image with a policy overhaul that includes closing the Guantanamo Bay detainee prison and renewed leadership on climate change.

The new president “has dramatized the basic values in the American dream that were somewhat tarnished over the past eight years,” Nye, a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense, said in an e-mail. “That in itself has done a lot for American soft power, but it will have to be followed up with policies that are successful.”

The most pressing problem for both countries now is the global financial crisis, which at first seemed a boon to China by exposing the failures of Western liberal capitalism, according to Nye. Now it weighs on the country’s previously unsinkable upward trend.

Job Losses

Growth may fall to 6.7 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, from 13 percent in 2007 and 9 percent last year. More than 20 million people have lost their jobs and represent a threat of unrest as exports contract and prices in the property market slump.

The government’s goal of preserving social stability may encourage repression of even legitimate complaints and public gatherings, creating potential human-rights abuses that attract international criticism. Earlier this month, at least 13 people were hurt in a clash of more than 2,000 in southwestern China after officials banned a traditional holiday dance, citing safety concerns.

Beijing casts critics of its human-rights record -- which includes reported arrests of dissidents promoting Tibetan independence and persecution of certain religious groups -- as ignorant and biased, a situation its latest soft-power initiative seems designed to address.

The government plans to hand out $6.6 billion to Xinhua News Agency and China Central Television, or CCTV, to expand abroad, the South China Morning Post reported last month.

English-Language Daily

CCTV will start Russian and Arabic channels this year to supplement Spanish and French programming. Xinhua, the state- run wire service, will add to its more than 100 foreign bureaus, and China will get its second official English- language daily, Agence France-Presse reported Jan. 14.

“Enhancing our communication capacity domestically and internationally is of direct consequence to our nation’s international influence and international position,” said Li Changchun, a member of the Communist Party’s top ruling body, in a December speech.

Cheng Li, research director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington, is skeptical about the project’s success.

“This is part of China’s efforts to change its image, but in my view it’s really more in terms of format rather than substance,” he says. “The real substance is, you change China’s own human-rights record at a faster pace.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Dune Lawrence in Beijing at dlawrence6@bloomberg.net





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Nakagawa to Resign in Latest Blow to Aso Government

By Keiko Ujikane

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said he will resign amid accusations he was drunk at a Group of Seven press conference, dealing a fresh blow to Prime Minister Taro Aso’s teetering government.

“I deeply apologize to the prime minister, the people and members of parliament for the significant trouble I caused,” Nakagawa, 55, told reporters in Tokyo today. Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano will replace him when he steps down, Kyodo News said, without citing where it got the information.

Aso’s popularity has plunged as lawmakers from both sides of parliament criticized his handling of the economic crisis and a series of scandals and misstatements drew public ire. Nakagawa’s departure comes as companies from Toyota Motor Corp. to Sony Corp. fire thousands of workers and the nation heads for its deepest recession since World War II.

“I would not be surprised if this folly signals the death- knell” for Aso’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said Kirby Daley, senior strategist and head of capital introductions at Newedge Group in Hong Kong. Nakagawa’s “unthinkable behavior, and the fact that the prime minister did not immediately call for his job, reduces his own fledgling credibility.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.4 percent in Tokyo today, extending losses for the year to 14 percent. The yen traded at 92.48 per dollar at 3:16 p.m. from 92.54 before the announcement.

Gridlock in Parliament

Parliamentary gridlock has prevented Aso from spending 10 trillion yen ($108 billion) to cushion the economy from its slide. Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 12.7 percent last quarter, the most severe contraction since the 1974 oil crisis and worse than declines in the U.S. and Europe.

“This mess over the weekend definitely negatively affected market sentiment and people’s confidence,” said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief Japan economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo. “The bigger problem is really a lack of leadership and ideas.”

Aso’s approval rating slid to 9.7 percent this week in a Nippon Television news survey, the second worst on record for a Japanese leader.

Yosano, 70, was runner up to Aso in the contest to head the LDP after Yasuo Fukuda resigned as prime minister in September. He said this week that Japan faces the worst economic crisis in postwar history. He will retain his post as economy minister, Kyodo reported. Japan’s inability to pass the stimulus measures may leave it with nothing to show at the Group of 20 leadership summit in London in April, Yosano said last month.

First Foreign Leader

Nakagawa’s resignation coincided with a Tokyo press conference by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, at which she invited Aso, 68, to be the first foreign leader to meet President Barack Obama in Washington. Clinton will also meet Ichiro Ozawa, head of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

Since returning from Rome, Nakagawa, Japan’s fourth finance minister in two years, has said a combination of medications and jet lag caused him to slur his words and nod off at the Feb. 14 press briefing. He said he would step down after fiscal 2009 budget bills are passed by the lower house of parliament.

Nakagawa, who also steps down as financial services minister, said a medical examination today diagnosed that he was exhausted as well as suffering from back pain and a cold. He will admit himself to hospital as soon as today, he added.

“The really extraordinary thing is that the whole situation is actually got to this stage,” said Naomi Fink, Japan strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in Tokyo. “The LDP could fall apart altogether.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.net





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Greed Corp. Will Rebound After the Scolding: Celestine Bohlen

Commentary by Celestine Bohlen

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- From Moscow to Washington, politicians are ganging up on greed.

That’s fine, but they really need to do more than shout from their bully pulpits if they want to rein in the natural impulse to accumulate wealth.

It’s easy to see why finger-wagging is tempting for elected officials in economic times as bad as these. The last time we had a mess like this, Franklin D. Roosevelt, delivering his 1933 inaugural address, blasted “unscrupulous money changers.”

Now we are seeing all manner of efforts to shame, even regulate, the greedy. There’s the Obama route, which was to push for a $500,000 cap on salaries at government-aided companies. The U.K. is using an honor system to embarrass its bankers, and make them cut their bonuses.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy wants to punish “young traders” who got rich by taking undue risks.

And then there’s Russian President Dmitri Medvedev who also struck out against the undeserving rich -- not bankers or oligarchs, but top government officials. His punishment? A ban on expensive ski vacations in Alpine resorts.

Harsh talk might work in the short term, but let’s face it: Greed always makes a comeback once the good times return. That’s when the lessons from economic crises are forgotten, and individuals and institutions figure out new ways to get very rich by hook or crook.

Get Serious

If politicians want to be serious about curbing outrageous pay, they should take advantage of the current public mood and attack the difficult issues -- corruption, glaring disparities of income or excessive profits on non-productive activity.

Let’s look at what doesn’t work.

Take Medvedev’s ban on Alpine ski trips, prompted by photographs showing top Kremlin officials on the slopes at Courchevel, a fancy French ski resort. Medvedev isn’t all that interested in his staff’s bloated income. What he cares about are the photographs, seen as a slap in the face at laid-off Russian workers.

Even Barack Obama, whose outrage at extravagant salaries seems genuine, must know that no amount of hectoring will work. Nor will pay caps. It took experts no time to figure out that a limit on top salaries at companies getting bailout cash would have been a joke.

This crisis has taught us a couple of obvious lessons. What is astonishing is that they had been so blithely ignored until now.

Rewarding Failure

One is that nobody should be rewarded for failure when their companies are being rescued by taxpayers. When a government pays the check, it has the right to challenge the bill.

Another rule, articulated by Obama, is that in times of economic upheaval, overly generous compensation is “not just bad taste, it’s bad strategy.” Translation: you’d have to be stupid to pay out big bonuses at a time like this, which tells us a lot about Wall Street’s political maturity.

What would more sense is to tackle some of the ugly little breaks that the overpaid get, such as the rule that allows hedge- fund managers to pay taxes at a rate half that of the janitors who clean their offices at night.

Now also would be the perfect time to get serious about going after lawbreakers, scammers and fraudsters. That Bernard Madoff, he of the $50 billion Ponzi scheme, was able to operate for decades in broad daylight with red flags waving all over the place is the real crime.

Exalting Greed

There’s a deeper issue though -- the exaltation of greed during boom times. Remember the speech by Gordon Gekko, the ruthless hero of the film “Wall Street”: “greed is good, greed is right, greed works, greed clarifies, cuts through and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit?” The film was made before the October 1987 market crash.

The lessons of that crash were instantly forgotten, and salaries and bonuses soon spiraled out of control, in the U.S. first and foremost.

The result was a disparity of wealth that’s a national disgrace. In 2005, the average pay for corporate chief executive officers was 369 times that of the average worker, compared with 36 times in 1976, according to a study by Kevin Murphy of the University of Southern California.

People may have grumbled, but nobody did anything about it. It has taken a recession to get anyone to start thinking about reforming executive compensation.

Remedied by Crash

A similar surge in income disparity occurred in 1929, but then fell dramatically after the stock market crash. Obviously the Great Depression had something to do with it, but so did the political mood, according to the late economist John Kenneth Galbraith.

“In depression, all this is reversed. Money is watched with a narrow, suspicious eye,” Galbraith wrote in “The Great Crash: 1929.” “The man who handles it is assumed to be dishonest until he proves himself otherwise.”

This then is the time to lay the groundwork for some real changes that will make it more difficult for the next group of Masters of the Universe to get rich quick in ways that harm so many of the rest of us.

(Celestine Bohlen is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Celestine Bohlen in Paris at cbohlen1@bloomberg.net





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Newcastle Weekly Coal Exports Fall 25%; Queue of Ships Declines

By Jesse Riseborough

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Coal shipments from Australia’s Newcastle, the world’s biggest export harbor for the fuel, fell 25 percent last week while the number of vessels waiting outside the port also declined.

The volume shipped in the week ended 7 a.m. local time yesterday fell to 1.38 million metric tons from 1.85 million tons a week earlier, Newcastle Port Corp. said today on its Web site. A total of 17 ships, waiting to load 1.5 million tons of coal, were lined up outside the port, down from 21 a week ago.

Coal ships waited 8.7 days to load coal, up from 5.3 days a week earlier, Newcastle Port said. The waiting time compared with 1.3 day for general cargo vessels last week, it said.

A total of 19 vessels carrying coal left Newcastle in the week ended Feb. 14, Newcastle Port said today in an e-mailed report. Fourteen ships were bound for Japan, two for Mexico, and one each for China, South Korea and Spain, it said.

Power plant coal prices at Australia’s Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, rose $2.07, or 2.6 percent, to $80.24 a ton in the week to Feb. 13, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.

Rio Tinto Group, Xstrata Plc and BHP Billiton Ltd. are among mining companies that ship coal through Newcastle.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net





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Cnooc Parent to Start First Oil Refinery Next Month

By Winnie Zhu

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- China National Offshore Oil Corp., the country’s biggest offshore petroleum explorer, will start up its first refinery next month to meet fuel demand in the manufacturing hub of Guangdong, said two company officials.

The Beijing-based company is testing the 240,000 barrel-a- day Huizhou refinery in southern Guangdong province and the plant will begin operations in March, said the officials, who declined to be named because of internal rules. The startup was delayed from the end of last year because of market uncertainty, one of the officials said.

China National Offshore, the parent of Hong Kong-listed Cnooc Ltd., is diversifying from exploration into fuel distribution to compete with bigger rivals PetroChina Co. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. even as economic growth slows. The government implemented a new fuel-pricing mechanism in December to ensure refining profits.

“China National Offshore’s practice in refining will no doubt strengthen competition in fuel sales, which are dominated by the other two oil majors,” Qiu Xiaofeng, an oil analyst with China Merchants Securities Ltd., said by telephone in Shanghai. The move will mainly hurt PetroChina, which has fewer filling stations in Guangdong and relies mostly on wholesalers, Qiu said.

While economic growth in Guangdong has slowed in the last year, expansion in the province, whose exports account for 18 percent of China’s total by value, has averaged 13.8 percent a year since 1978, the South China Morning Post newspaper reported on Nov. 8.

Pricing Mechanism

China is turning into a “buyers market” for fuel products as a slowing economy erodes demand in the world’s second-largest energy-consuming nation, said China Petrochemical Corp., parent of Sinopec, as China Petroleum is known, on Dec. 25.

The government in December replaced a guidance band for retail fuel prices with a market-based ceiling that takes into account the cost of crude oil. The new pricing mechanism assures prospects for the refining business, one of the officials said. A stimulus plan for the petrochemical industry will boost business further, he said.

A stimulus plan for the oil refining and petrochemicals sector may be approved by Feb. 22, two industry officials said last week. The proposal includes tax incentives and the acceleration of project approvals and construction.

The Huizhou refinery will initially process crude from Cnooc’s oil field in Bohai Bay, an official said on Nov. 7. China National Offshore completed construction of the company’s first fuel depot in Dongguan city in Guangdong, the group said in a statement on its Web site dated Feb. 9.

China National Offshore expects to boost its oil-processing capacity to 60 million metric tons by 2020 from 12 million tons, Zhang Guoxiang, a senior engineer at the refinery, said on March 6. The group plans to build 300 retail filling stations in Guangdong to sell fuel produced by the Huizhou plant.

To contact the reporter on this story: Winnie Zhu in Shanghai at wzhu4@bloomberg.net.





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