Economic Calendar

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

U.S. Stocks Retreat, Commodities Trim Gain as Italy Bonds Drop

By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth - Oct 5, 2011 8:50 PM GMT+0700

U.S. stocks fell, while European shares and commodities trimmed earlier gains, as investors watched for signs of progress in Europe’s efforts to halt its debt crisis. The euro weakened against 12 of 16 major peers and Italian bonds declined.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.3 percent to 1,120.8 at 9:49 a.m. in New York after closing 2.3 percent higher yesterday following a late-day rebound. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up 1.9 percent, paring a 2.3 percent rally, and the S&P GSCI Index of commodities trimmed a 2.1 percent gain in half. Italian 10-year yields rose six basis points after Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s credit rating.

While European Union leaders are discussing an effort to recapitalize banks, EU Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn doesn’t have “a concrete plan in hand,” his spokesman, Amadeu Altafaj, said today after a Financial Times report of the discussions triggered a surge in U.S. equities in the final hour of trading yesterday.

“The jury is still out,” Bruce Bittles, who helps oversee $85 billion as chief investment strategist at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., said in a telephone interview. “The market’s ability to continue to rally will depend on whether the economy will slip into recession or continue in slow growth pace. There’s no easy, painless solution out of the European situation. It’s complicated.”

Jobs Data

U.S. stock futures gained before the open of exchanges after companies in the U.S. added 91,000 jobs in September, according to data from ADP Employer Services. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an advance of 75,000. A Labor Department report in two days is forecast to show a 90,000 increase in private jobs and a net 60,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, according to the median economist estimates in a survey, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 9.1 percent.

The S&P 500 closed 2.3 percent higher yesterday following the FT report. It was the 10th time since 1985 that the index posted a loss of 1 percent or more at 3 p.m. and was up when the market closed, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC in Harrison, New York. The measure declined the next day eight times, with losses averaging 1.3 percent, the data show.


Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, will mark the unofficial start of the earnings-reporting season when it reports results on Oct. 11. Third-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies are projected to have grown 13 percent, according to analyst forecast compiled by Bloomberg, down from an estimate of 17 percent when the index traded at a three-year high at the end of April.

Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York, predicted a “nice year-end rally” in stocks after profits come in higher than analysts’ estimated.

“Earnings will surprise to the upside, earnings estimates have been slashed too much,” Belski said on Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track With Deirdre Bolton and Erik Schatzker.” “Corporate America has gone through so much structural reform in the last 10 or 12 years that they continue to be positioned to under-promise, over-deliver.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net




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Morgan Stanley’s Ukrainian Farming Adventure

By Alan Katz and Peter Robison - Oct 5, 2011 6:00 AM GMT+0700
Bloomberg Markets Magazine
Enlarge image Justin Bruch, who ran Golden Fields

Justin Bruch, who ran Golden Fields, is currently working in the Ukraine for a new employer, Alpcot Agro. Photographer: Alan Katz/Bloomberg

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Alan Katz reports on Morgan Stanley's farming venture on the steppes of Ukraine which it abandoned in July 2009. The failed gamble demonstrates how Wall Street firms, in the last gasp of a debt-fueled bull market, strayed further from their traditional businesses to embrace diverse projects with unfamiliar risks. (Source: Bloomberg)


Iowa native Justin Bruch marveled at the opportunity when Morgan Stanley (MS) called in late 2007 to recruit him for an unusual assignment.

The New York bank, flush with $7.5 billion in fiscal 2006 profit -- the biggest in its history -- was going to be farming 11 parcels on the steppes of Ukraine. The commodities team wanted Bruch, a redhead with meaty hands who’d been farming all his life, to manage one of them.

Bruch saw a chance to dig into some famous dirt, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its November issue. The former Soviet republic has 30 percent of the world’s black soil, earth so fertile Adolf Hitler had Nazi troops cart some back to Germany during World War II. Wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflowers thrive there.

“It’s like the prairie land that was broken in the Midwest 100 years ago,” says Bruch, 34, who grew up on his family’s 2,500-acre (1,012-hectare) corn and soybean farm. “The soil and potential for crops that Ukraine has is the best in the world.”

Morgan Stanley was primed for the investment. It was then the second-largest U.S. securities firm by market value, after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Chief Executive Officer John Mack was pushing managers to take more risks.

The year Morgan Stanley called Bruch about running a farm in the Mykolayiv region near Odessa on the Black Sea, the bank spent $6.5 billion for Crescent Real Estate Equities Co., which had 54 office buildings in Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami and elsewhere.

Golden Fields

The bank also financed an Atlantic City casino resort after buying the land for it in 2006. The commodities division, which had acquired operators of fuel terminals and oil tankers, recruited for its European agriculture desk, anticipating rising food prices. The increases would spark riots in several countries in 2008.

Enselco Ltd., the company Morgan Stanley funded that owned the Ukrainian farms, bought satellite-guided John Deere tractors to plow its weed-strewn Ukrainian acres and imported mold- preventing grain bags as long as football fields. Bruch picked up enough Russian to joke with his tractor drivers and order a meal in his adopted home.

Things began to fall apart within months. The locals stole fertilizer and insecticide, Bruch says, and he suspected that harvested wheat was disappearing too. He wound up fighting with tax, immigration, fire and police inspectors and trying to satisfy officials who wanted him to build roads, not just till fields. He left the farm, called Golden Fields, in June 2009 to manage a Ukrainian farm owned by another foreign investor.

‘Worked My Tail Off’

“I worked my tail off for a year on that, trying to do a good job, produce a good crop,” Bruch says in a Lviv beer garden over a meal of spit-roasted pig. “It was pretty stressful and pretty much a headache, so I’m really happy not ever to deal with any of it again.”

Morgan Stanley gave up on farming in Ukraine in July 2009, abandoning the initiative in the middle of a harvest. It bought out its local partner, Aleksandr Mamontenko, then sold Enselco to an investment firm based in Jersey in the Channel Islands, at what people familiar with the situation say was a loss. All told, Morgan Stanley put about $30 million into Enselco through loans, according to Igor Bobrov, who was hired in 2008 to be Enselco’s chief financial officer and later became its CEO. Hugh Fraser, a London-based Morgan Stanley spokesman, says bank officials declined to comment for this story.

Failed Gamble

Morgan Stanley’s failed gamble in Ukraine shows how Wall Street firms, in the last gasp of a debt-fueled bull market, strayed further from their traditional business of advising companies and underwriting stock sales to embrace diverse projects with unfamiliar risks.

By 2007, banks were investing in everything from casino development to mortgage lending in Russia. That year, the five major U.S. investment banks had only $1 in capital for every $40 of assets, meaning a 3 percent drop in asset value could wipe out a firm, according to a January report by a congressionally appointed panel probing the 2008 credit crisis.

“You don’t buy farms if you’re a brokerage,” says Richard Bove, an analyst who follows Morgan Stanley for Stamford, Connecticut-based Rochdale Securities LLC and has covered Wall Street for 30 years. “It’s an example of stretching too hard to make a killing without thinking about the core responsibility.”

After credit and equity markets collapsed in the wake of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ)’s failure in September 2008, Morgan Stanley borrowed $107.3 billion from the Federal Reserve, according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, litigation and an act of Congress. It also got a $10 billion capital infusion in October as part of a $700 billion government bailout of the industry.

Food Inflation

Morgan Stanley’s misadventure in Ukraine points up risks for current-day investors lured by statistics that may seem to paint agriculture as a no-brainer. Rising wealth is changing the diets of 2.5 billion people in China and India, requiring more grain to feed cattle and pigs just as soil erosion and urbanization are limiting available farmland.

To keep food inflation under control, at least 185 million new acres -- twice the area of Germany -- will have to be cultivated by 2015, says Philippe de Laperouse, the St. Louis- based director of the agribusiness practice at consulting firm HighQuest Partners LLC.

Less than 60 million acres were added during the 10 years through 2005, he says. Global food prices spiked to records in 2008 and again this year, according to a United Nations food index. Prices in August were 26 percent higher than a year earlier, after having peaked in February.

‘Difficult Business’

Hedge funds, mutual funds, university endowments and others with little experience in agriculture are buying farms at an unprecedented pace, pouring at least $13 billion since the end of 2007 into land or funds that involve agriculture, according to London-based Hardman & Co.

“These investments are driven by people who put investments together; they aren’t farmers,” says Howard Buffett, the son of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett.

The younger Buffett runs a farm in Illinois and is a former director of agricultural behemoths ConAgra Foods Inc. and Archer Daniels Midland Co. in addition to sitting on Berkshire’s board.

“It’s a very difficult business, and people really underestimate that,” he says.

Some foreign investors have had a tough time in Ukraine, even with the humus-laced black earth -- called chernozem in Russian -- that once made the region Europe’s breadbasket.

‘Soviet Brains’

Outsiders often struggle to appreciate the mind-set of Ukrainian workers, says Yuriy Kosyuk, CEO of Myronivsky Hliboproduct SA, a Kiev poultry and grain producer.

“We still have Soviet brains,” the shirt-sleeved Kosyuk says in a room adorned with porcelain chickens at company headquarters. “A lot of people here don’t want a job for the salary. They want it to be able to steal something, or for some preference or way to get ahead.”

Landkom International Plc (LKI), based on the Isle of Man, leases 74,000 hectares, mainly in western Ukraine. It raised 54 million pounds ($111 million) in a 2007 U.K. public offering and has since lost a similar amount, according to its financial reports.

Richard Spinks, the company’s former CEO, recalls putting 96 people on his payroll for security. They caught workers with plastic bottles of diesel fuel stuffed in their boots, he says. Landkom said on Sept. 7 that it doesn’t expect to report a pre- tax profit this fiscal year because of a poor rapeseed harvest.

Pig Snorts

Ukraine -- which ties with Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Azerbaijan for 134th place in Transparency International’s 2010 corruption perceptions index -- wasn’t Morgan Stanley’s first try at producing food. The bank also invested in U.S. pig farms, says Brad Hintz, a former Morgan Stanley treasurer who left the company in 1996 and is now an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York.

Morgan Stanley’s merchant banking funds had a controlling stake in Princeton, Missouri-based Premium Standard Farms Inc., founded in 1988, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The pork producer ran up $461 million in debt as it invested in new barns and packing plants while hog prices fell to the lowest levels since the mid-1970s, the filing says. Premium Standard sought bankruptcy protection in 1996.

“It was so clear that this was a troubled investment that when you would sit in the merchant banking review committees, in the back of the room there would always be an associate who would do ‘snort, snort, snort,’” Hintz says, making a noise like a pig.

Emulating Goldman

With Ukraine, Morgan Stanley saw a first step into a potential multibillion-dollar crop-growing business, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

Record profits from advising on mergers, under-writing stock offers and selling mortgage-backed securities tied to U.S. housing prices had transformed Wall Street. Banks were opening the throttle on risk taking.

Mack, hired in 2005 after executive defections and lagging profits weakened predecessor Philip Purcell, wanted managers to emulate New York rival Goldman Sachs and wager more of the firm’s own capital, Hintz says. Mack set aside $2.5 billion for principal investments and encouraged employees to come to him with ideas.

Mikhail Chernyy, who worked in the bank’s Moscow office, helped propose the investment in Ukraine, according to two people familiar with the creation of Enselco.

‘Visions of Sugarplums’

Mamontenko, a member of the supervisory board of AKB Finbank in Odessa, says Chernyy called him to suggest a partnership. The company was registered in Kiev on Jan. 11, 2007, amid a two-year surge in food prices that peaked in mid- 2008. Chernyy, now deputy director of strategy and energy markets at OAO Bashkirenergo, a utility in Russia’s Bashkortostan region, declined to comment.

Mamontenko led a search for suitable property for Enselco, of which he was CEO. After the Soviet Union was dismantled in 1991, most of Ukraine’s land was given to its people in plots that average 3 hectares and that can’t be sold or used as collateral. Enselco acquired 11 operating farms that leased land from thousands of peasants in the Mykolayiv region, where Bruch was a manager, and in the Khmelnytsky region of western Ukraine. The farms produced wheat, rapeseed and other grains and oilseed.

“I can imagine the visions of sugarplums,” says Bove, the Rochdale analyst. He says the bank may have wanted to grow grain to give its traders in futures markets an edge, as it has in crude oil by chartering tankers.

Bruch, the farmer from Iowa, was finishing a Master of Business Administration at California State University in Fresno in 2007 when Morgan Stanley called. He’d gotten a taste for international farming in Brazil, where he worked with his brother running a 1,250-acre farm in the state of Bahia.

‘You’re Naive’

In Ukraine, Bruch says, he was struck by the timelessness of a place where on some plots women still drop seeds by hand behind horse-drawn plows.

“When you come from Iowa, you’re naive,” Bruch says on a rainy afternoon by a wheat field owned by his current employer, Stockholm-based farm investment company Alpcot Agro AB. (ALPA) He soon learned that the ancient landscape hid a bureaucracy little changed from Soviet days.

The red tape begins with bringing equipment into Ukraine. Most countries require one piece of paper for imports, says Joseph Gooch, an Indiana farm equipment broker. He loaded five containers for Morgan Stanley’s Ukraine operations in 2008.

‘Communist Mentality’

Included were a 500-horsepower John Deere 9620 tractor, a 300-hp John Deere 8430, a self-propelled sprayer and two grain- bagging systems. He says that in Ukraine, importers need a “certificate of quality,” a “certificate of origin,” a packing list and a “pro forma” invoice.

“The Communist mentality just hasn’t died,” Gooch says.

On the farm, Bruch was facing a rash of thefts.

“It’s mind-boggling what people will steal from you,” he says. “The chemicals don’t go in the sprayer, they go in the back of someone’s Lada and are sold to a neighbor down the road.”

Bruch says he didn’t mind losing a few gallons of insecticide; what concerned him was the wheat that might not grow because he didn’t have enough to cover the last few acres. After the 2008 harvest, his doubts increased. Bruch wondered whether whole truckloads of wheat had been pilfered.

“I would look at a wheat field and know that it was about a 4 1⁄2-ton field, that I had a good crop,” he says, pointing to a steel grate where trucks pour in grain after it has been weighed. “Then it comes across the scale at 3 1⁄4 tons, and I would lie awake at night and wonder was I way off or did that wheat get stolen? I’ll never know.”

‘What a Problem’

Still, yields weren’t bad; some wheat fields came in at 5.2 tons a hectare and some rapeseed at 3 tons a hectare, above the average in Ukraine, Bruch says. The larger concern was the bank’s dispute with its partner, he says.

“I didn’t have the brains to see what a problem that would be,” says Bruch, declining to be more specific.

By 2008, Morgan Stanley was sparring with Mamontenko, according to two people familiar with the situation. Enselco was owned by Venusaur Holdings Ltd., a Cyprus-based firm whose sole shareholder was Mamontenko, according to documents in the Department of the Registrar of Companies in Nicosia. Venusaur pledged 100 percent of the equity in Enselco as collateral to Morgan Stanley, the documents show.

The bank questioned Mamontenko’s decisions, people familiar with the matter say. Enselco bought chemicals from intermediary companies that charged markups and sold crops to middlemen at prices below market levels, according to three of these people, who declined to be quoted by name because they don’t have documents to prove the markups.

‘Spoiled Everything’

Mamontenko says he wasn’t affiliated with intermediaries and coordinated prices with Morgan Stanley officials. He says he had a good relationship with the bank.

Leaning over a dark-wood table in his Finbank office in Odessa, he says the market panic following Lehman’s September 2008 collapse caused the bank to bow out.

“The biggest problem was the financial crisis,” says Mamontenko, his white shirt open to reveal a tanned chest with a thick chain and a gold cross. “That spoiled everything. Without that, we’d be farming 200,000 hectares now.”

By the end of the 2008 harvest, Morgan Stanley was cutting its far-flung investments as fast as it had been making them. Mack reduced leverage -- a measure of how extensively a firm is using borrowed money to enhance returns on shareholders’ capital -- to 11 times by the end of March 2009 from almost 28 times a year earlier, according to bank figures.

Red Lada

The Ukrainian farms went out the door in July 2009 when Enselco was sold to JadenFinch Ltd., a firm that invests on behalf of oil trader Robert Finch and his family. Kernel Holding SA, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer, agreed on Sept. 9 to an option to buy Enselco for $52.3 million.

The bank’s shares haven’t recovered. So far this year, the stock has dropped 49 percent through Oct. 4, closing at $14.01 - - or less than one-fifth of its $74.13 peak in June 2007.

James Gorman took over as Morgan Stanley’s chief executive in January 2010. Mack, who’d stayed on as chairman, will end that role on Jan. 1, making Gorman both chairman and CEO. The bank wrote down all but $40 million of its $1.2 billion investment in a half-built Atlantic City casino last year -- another sign it’s getting back to the business of banking.

Bruch is in his element too. Fishtailing up a muddy track in a red Lada, he points to the wheat and rapeseed fields he’s cultivating for Alpcot.

After losing money for three years, the company, which specializes in the black-earth belt of Russia and Ukraine, said on Aug. 31 that it had turned its first operating profit in Ukraine.

“I just want to raise the best crops I can for the best value,” Bruch says. “Now I just focus on raising crops.”

The bankers at Morgan Stanley, who once fancied themselves farmers, learned how hard that can be.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alan Katz in Paris at akatz5@bloomberg.net; Peter Robison in Seattle at robison@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay in Paris at mpozsgay@bloomberg.net;




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Dexia Moves Bank Crisis From Europe’s Periphery to Its Core

By Gavin Finch, Liam Vaughan and Anne-Sylvaine Chassany - Oct 5, 2011 5:44 PM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Dexia Moves Bank Crisis From Europe’s Periphery to Its Cor

Dexia dropped 22 percent yesterday and 34 percent over the past four sessions. Photographer: Jock Fistick/Bloomberg

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Less than three months after Dexia SA got a clean bill of health in European Union stress tests, France and Belgium are considering a second bailout, moving the banking crisis from the continent's periphery to its heartland. Caroline Hyde reports on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move." (Source: Bloomberg)


Less than three months after Dexia SA (DEXB) got a clean bill of health in European Union stress tests, France and Belgium are considering a second bailout, moving the banking crisis from the continent’s periphery to its heartland.

“We’re seeing a practical example of contagion playing out,” said Jean-Pierre Lambert, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods in London, referring to Dexia’s “material exposure” to the debt of countries on the EU’s rim. “Investors aren’t quite sure what the sovereign debt losses will be, nor where the share price should be. They are concerned about the risks and reduce their funding.”

Dexia rose 6.7 percent to 1.08 euros by 12:15 p.m. in Brussels trading as European stocks advanced on speculation policy makers are examining measures to shield banks from the sovereign debt crisis. Dexia dropped 22 percent yesterday even after both the French and Belgian governments, which bailed out Dexia in 2008, pledged to support the bank.

Belgium’s biggest bank plans to pool its troubled assets into a “bad bank” with Belgian and French government guarantees to protect depositors and its municipal-lending business, Yves Leterme, Belgium’s prime minister, said yesterday.

Caisse des Depots

The lender may hive off its French municipal loan book into a venture funded by state-owned La Banque Postale and Caisse des Depots et Consignations, and seek buyers for its Belgian bank, Denizbank AS in Turkey and its asset-management division, one of the people with knowledge of the talks said.

The board of the Paris- and Brussels-based municipal lender met Oct. 3 to discuss a breakup of the bank after the sovereign debt crisis reduced its ability to obtain funding, said three people with knowledge of the talks.

Dexia won’t go bankrupt and France will guarantee deposits, French European Affairs Minister Jean Leonetti said in an interview on Canal Plus television today. “Coming to the rescue of a bank is not necessarily a bad deal,” he said.

French central bank governor Christian Noyer said that he has no concerns over the country’s AAA credit rating in the light of the decision to restructure Dexia. There’s no threat to any other of the French banks, which remain solid, he said in an interview on Europe1 radio station.

Investors are shunning European lenders, whose shares are down 36 percent this year, on concern that the sovereign debt crisis has undermined their ability to fund themselves. U.S. money-market funds cut their holdings of commercial paper sold by foreign financial firms, mostly European, by 31 percent in the third quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

ECB Support

The European Central Bank has been providing banks with as much short-term euro funding as they need at its benchmark rate against eligible collateral since October 2008, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. triggered a global recession. It has been forced by the debt crisis, spreading beyond Greece to Italy and Spain, to extend those measures and in August reintroduced longer-duration, six-month euro loans.

The ECB also joined with the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks on Sept. 15 to lend dollars to euro-area banks with three-month loans to ensure lenders have enough of the currency through the end of the year.

Europe’s banks are paying close to the highest premium to borrow in dollars in the swaps market since December 2008, with the three-month, cross-currency basis swap falling to 106.5 basis points below the euro interbank offered rate.

French Banks

French banks including Paris-based Societe Generale (GLE) SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) are particularly vulnerable to deterioration in market confidence as they have large balance sheets, significant wholesale liquidity needs across different currencies and reduced prospects to rebuild capital, Jean- Francois Neuez, a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst in London, wrote in a note to clients yesterday.

The cost of insuring the debt of France’s three biggest banks rose yesterday, with Societe Generale up 32 basis points to 384, Credit Agricole 24 basis points higher at 287 and BNP Paribas SA up 23 basis points to 286, according to CMA prices. An increase signals deteriorating perceptions of credit quality.

“Dexia is by no means alone in terms of being at risk here,” said Simon Maughan, head of sales and distribution at MF Global Ltd. in London. “There are plenty of other banks out there that have grown their assets way in excess of their deposit base like Dexia. That makes them massively exposed. It feels like the capitulation has started, and people are saying we’ve had enough of this state of affairs and something concrete needs to be done.”

Dexia Credit Rating

Moody’s Investors Service put Dexia’s three main operating units on review for a downgrade on Oct. 3 on concern that the lender was struggling to fund itself. The rating company also expressed concern that the bank didn’t have sufficient collateral at its disposal, “potentially resulting in a further squeeze in its available liquidity reserves.” The bank’s shares are down 59 percent this year.

Moody’s also cut Italy’s credit rating yesterday on concern that the government will struggle to reduce the region’s second- largest debt.

Federal Reserve Loans

Dexia emerged from the 1996 merger of Credit Local de France and Credit Communal de Belgique SA, the biggest municipal lenders in their respective countries. Unlike Credit Local de France, which relied exclusively on wholesale funding for its lending, the Belgian firm also operated a retail bank in Belgium and a private bank in Luxembourg.

Over the past decade, the Franco-Belgian bank sought to combine with another retail bank in France and elsewhere in Europe to reduce its reliance on wholesale funding. It failed to merge with Italian lender Sanpaolo IMI SpA in 2004.

That dependence on wholesale funding hobbled Dexia as money markets seized up after Lehman collapsed, and the lender turned to emergency funding from central banks. It was one of the largest euro-area users of emergency loans from the Fed, borrowing $58.5 billion as of Dec. 31, 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Dexia posted a 4 billion-euro ($5.3 billion) loss for the second quarter, the biggest in its history, after writing down the value of its Greek debt. Once the world’s largest lender to municipalities, it received a 6 billion-euro bailout from Belgium, France and its major shareholders in September 2008.

‘A Bit Late’

“Dexia’s model is vulnerable because it is dependent on short-term funding,” said Benoit Petrarque, an Amsterdam-based analyst at Kepler Capital Markets. “But the bank could have sold its legacy sovereign bonds portfolio over time and earlier. It didn’t want to take the losses. Now it’s a bit late.”

The bank, which marked down some of its Greek debt by 21 percent, may have to take additional losses if it writes down those loans to market prices.

“Dexia is a very specific case,” said Francois Chaulet, who helps manage about 250 million euros at Montsegur Finance in Paris, including shares in BNP Paribas (BNP) and Societe Generale. “You can’t compare it to BNP Paribas or Societe Generale. It faces huge exposures after selling toxic products to local regions, and it’s very highly leveraged.”

Chaulet said he wouldn’t be selling his holdings in other European banks in response.

Allied Irish

Dexia passed the EU stress tests in July with regulators saying it had sufficient capital to withstand a recession and losses on its sovereign debt. The lender’s core Tier 1 capital ratio, a measure of financial strength, was 10.4 percent in the test’s adverse scenario, surpassing the 5 percent minimum required by the European Banking Authority.

Allied Irish Banks Plc (ALBK) and Bank of Ireland Plc passed the EU’s examinations in 2010, while Anglo Irish Bank Corp. wasn’t tested. Later that year, a liquidity shortfall caused when depositors withdrew funds from Irish lenders helped prompt EU governments and the International Monetary Fund to agree on an 85 billion-euro bailout for the country.

“The European stress tests lacked a critical element, which is full harmonization of capital,” KBW’s Lambert said. “In the case of Dexia, because it’s a Belgian bank, it was able to exclude the paper losses on its sovereign bonds to calculate its capital ratios. Basel III is going to help harmonize the accounting method.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net; Liam Vaughan in London at lvaughan6@bloomberg.net; Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in Paris at achassany@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net.



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Apple’s Tim Cook Aims to Woo Shoppers Without Pizzazz of IPhone5 Redesign

By Adam Satariano and Peter Burrows - Oct 5, 2011 8:32 PM GMT+0700

Apple Inc. (AAPL) this holiday season will have to prove it’s what’s on the inside that matters most.

With its latest iPhone 4S, Apple didn’t tinker with the outside of the device, focusing instead on improving the processor, camera and software interface. The challenge will be persuading shoppers to upgrade to a new product that looks exactly like their old one.

Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook, in his first major product release since taking over for Steve Jobs, is counting on faster speed, voice recognition and the iCloud storage service to make the iPhone a success. The device, Apple’s best-selling product, will face off against an army of fresh smartphones running Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android, including Samsung Electronics Co.’s Galaxy S II and LG Electronics Inc.’s Thrill 4G.

Apple “didn’t quite understand how revved up expectations had gotten,” said Frank Gillett, an analyst at Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Forrester Research Inc. Some users were looking for a more revolutionary iPhone 5, rather than just a faster iPhone 4, he said. Instead, “Apple is asking people to appreciate and give them credit for a highly engineered and integrated set of products and services.”

Jobs Absent

Cook also has to promote the new iPhone without as much day-to-day assistance from Jobs, whose expertise in marketing and design helped turn Apple into the world’s most valuable technology company. Jobs, who switched from CEO to chairman on Aug. 24, didn’t appear at the unveiling of the iPhone 4S yesterday. The 56-year-old has taken three medical leaves over the past seven years amid a battle with a rare form of cancer.

The success of the iPhone has helped Apple weather market turmoil and the resignation of Jobs, with the shares gaining 15 percent this year before today. Apple fell $5.50, or 1.5 percent, to $367 at 9:30 a.m. New York time on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Apple touted the inside changes to the iPhone 4S at yesterday’s event, held at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. The A5 chip will make graphics seven times speedier and deliver twice the processing power. The model will cost $199, $299 and $399, depending on features, and will be available from Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) for the first time. Apple already had agreements with AT&T Inc. (T) and Verizon Wireless.

Motorola Deal

“Inside, it is all new,” said Phil Schiller, a senior vice president in charge of product marketing.

At stake is leadership in the market for smartphones, which is projected to double by 2015, according to IDC. A billion of the handsets will be sold that year, the research firm estimates. While the iPhone is the world’s most popular smartphone, the Android operating system is more widely used by the industry.

Google aims to bolster that position by purchasing its own mobile-phone manufacturer, Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. A full redesign under the iPhone 5 banner, along with a revamped iPhone 4, would have given Apple more ammunition to use against Google and its Android partners.

Even so, Apple benefits from more efficient manufacturing by keeping the same body design, Gillett said.

“One thing people don’t understand about Apple is they don’t just change the look for the heck of it,” he said. “They think about it for a very long time.”

Camera Replacement

The iPhone 4S, available Oct. 14, will have a camera that has 60 percent more pixels and can shoot high-definition video. The device also relies on an “intelligent antenna system” that’s designed to improve call quality and works with both CDMA and GSM wireless standards. Users will have up to 8 hours of talk time on one charge.

“For many customers, the iPhone 4S will be the best still camera they’ve ever owned, the best video camera they’ve ever owned, and it’s with them all the time,” Schiller said.

The new voice-recognition system will turn the device into a hands-free personal assistant. The technology lets users check weather, get directions or surf the Web using speech commands. Apple already had basic voice-control abilities on the iPhone for placing a call or accessing a song.

Apple acquired a speech-recognition software company last year called Siri, which helped it develop the new features. The system relies on artificial intelligence to handle users’ questions. The features, combined with the more aggressive prices, will give Apple an edge, said Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Oregon.

ICloud Release

“Siri is very unique from what I’ve seen and should continue to differentiate them at the high end,” he said.

The older iPhone 4 model will now cost $99, and the iPhone 3GS will be free with a wireless contract.

The company also is preparing to release iCloud, which stores pictures, music and other files on Apple’s remote servers. The content can be accessed through iPads, iPhones and Macs via the Internet, and mobile devices no longer have to sync up to a computer. ICloud will debut on Oct. 12.

Voice recognition is emerging as the latest arena for Apple’s rivalry with Google, which has spent years promoting speech technology. Current Google features let users transcribe voice messages to text, ask for turn-by-turn driving directions and perform Web searches based on verbal commands.

Apple’s iPod, meanwhile, remains an important business, Cook said -- even as the iPhone cannibalizes some of its sales. As it prepares for the year-end shopping season, the company introduced a new $129 version of the iPod Nano and a range of iPod Touch models starting at $199.

The iPod, which made its debut 10 years ago, has reached sales of 300 million units globally.

“It took Sony 30 years to sell 220 million Walkman cassette players,” Cook said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Adam Satariano in San Francisco at asatariano1@bloomberg.net; Peter Burrows in San Francisco at pburrows@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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European Nations Face Downgrade, Moody’s Says

By Ben Livesey and Chiara Vasarri - Oct 5, 2011 4:32 PM GMT+0700

Moody’s Investors Service followed its three-level downgrade of Italy by warning that euro-area nations rated below the top Aaa level may see their rankings cut amid contagion from the region’s debt crisis.

“All but the strongest euro-area sovereigns are likely to face sustained negative pressure on their ratings,” Moody’s said in a statement late yesterday in London. “Consequently, Moody’s expects fewer countries below Aaa to retain high ratings.” It added that “there are no immediate pressures that could cause downgrades for Aaa-rated countries.”

The statement came after the company cut Italy’s rating for the first time since 1993 on concern the government will struggle to reduce the region’s second-largest debt amid chronically weak growth. Italy was lowered to A2 from Aa2. Standard & Poor’s downgraded Italy on Sept. 20 for the first time in five years.

“Italy is being punished not because its finances suddenly deteriorated, but because investors have become more sensitive to its long-standing weaknesses,” Nicholas Spiro, managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, wrote in an e- mail. “Depending on one’s view, Italy is just as safe, or just as risky, as it was before it was dragged into the crisis.”

The Moody’s warning underscores the deterioration in euro- region sovereign finances as growth slows and debt piles up. Eleven of the 17 nations that share the single currency have ratings below Aaa. The top ranking is held by Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

Spread Widens

The yield spread on 10-year Italian bonds and similar German securities rose widened to 379 basis points at 11:20 a.m. in Rome. “Italian spreads are already implying a BBB credit rating and we don’t expect huge reaction from the market to this Moody’s action,” Alessandro Giansanti, a strategist at ING Bank NV in Amsterdam, wrote in a note to investors.

European stocks climbed, snapping a three-day decline amid speculation policy makers are examining measures to shield banks from the sovereign-debt crisis. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 1.6 percent as of 10:28 a.m. in Rome.

Today’s rebound comes after European stocks registered the longest losing streak in four weeks as policy makers signaled they may renegotiate terms of Greece’s bailout, deepening concern about the impact of the debt crisis.

European finance chiefs meeting this week considered “technical revisions” to the second Greek bailout, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday, fueling concern bondholders may have to take bigger losses on the nation’s debt.

‘Profound Loss’

“There has been a profound loss of confidence in certain European sovereign debt markets, and Moody’s considers that this extremely weak market sentiment will likely persist,” the ratings company said in yesterday’s statement. “It is no longer a temporary problem that might be addressed through liquidity support, and several euro-area governments are increasingly affected by the loss of confidence.”

In the absence of a rapid return to growth and market confidence, euro-area nations “will at some point have to choose between increasing the level of mutual support and managing further defaults,” Moody’s said. “The former option is the one that euro-area policy makers are more likely to adopt.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Livesey at blivesey@bloomberg.net; Chiara Vasarri in Rome at cvasarri@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Angela Cullen at acullen8@bloomberg.net.




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Merkel Says Those Demanding Endgame to Europe’s Debt Crisis Have ‘No Clue’

By Tony Czuczka - Oct 5, 2011 5:00 AM GMT+0700

German Chancellor Angela Merkel stiffened her resistance to joint euro-area bond sales, saying that investors yearning for a single gesture that can end Europe’s sovereign debt crisis now will be disappointed.

The euro area has to resolve “that the time of living above our means is over once and for all” and pursue debt reduction that will stretch over “many years,” Merkel said in a speech to members of her Christian Democratic Union late yesterday in Magdeburg, eastern Germany.

While stepping up her rejection of a Greek default, she said that issuance of shared debt by euro countries isn’t the solution to the problem spilling from Greece, even though some may long for the “big bang” to end the debt crisis. “Whoever believes that has no clue about the economy,” she said.

Merkel stuck to her positions as she prepares for talks in Brussels today with European Commission President Jose Barroso before hosting French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Berlin on Oct. 9. The leaders of Europe’s two biggest economies will get together after the region’s finance ministers failed to quell market jitters that a second aid package for Greece aimed at stemming the crisis might unravel.

A Greek default would have unpredictable consequences, lead to speculative attacks on other highly indebted euro countries and risk sending German economic growth into reverse, Merkel said. Letting Greece default would trigger “a gigantic loss of confidence” in euro-area sovereign bonds.

No ‘Adventure’

“No one can say with certainty” what would happen if Greece defaults, she said. “Before I make a nifty step into an adventure, I have to ask whether we can really handle this and can we oversee what we are doing?”

Merkel said that her “entire council” of economic advisers says Greek debt should be restructured, advice that she is not prepared to take.

“If we tell a country ‘We cancel half of your debt,’ that’s a great deal,” she said. “Then the next guy will immediately show up and say he wants the same.”

“You can open any newspaper and see there’s a broad international debate,” she said. “I’m not an economist or a theorist. I and the German government have to consider the consequences of what we do.”

Merkel, speaking to the last of six regional conferences of her Christian Democrats before the party holds a national convention next month, said that she was “deeply convinced” that Europe’s problems can only be solved jointly.

“Solidarity is always cheaper than if we were to go it alone and wind up with the problem Switzerland has -- that the currency level is so high that you can’t export any products anymore. Today, going it alone is no path to a better future.”

“We must press ahead with the task” begun by former Chancellor Helmut Kohl when he made the political decision in favor of the euro after German reunification in 1990, she said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net




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European Stocks Advance Amid Speculation Policy Makers Will Assist Banks

By Peter Levring - Oct 5, 2011 9:05 PM GMT+0700
Enlarge image European Stocks Climb Amid Speculation

The DAX Index curve is seen above two toy bulls decorating a computer screen at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Photographer: Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg


European stocks advanced for the first time in four days amid speculation policy makers are examining measures to shield banks from the region’s sovereign- debt crisis.

Dexia SA (DEXB) gained 6.5 percent after France and Belgium said a “bad bank” will be set up to hold its troubled assets. BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale (GLE) SA, France’s biggest lenders, climbed 5 percent. Rio Tinto Group led mining companies higher. European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. rose 4.6 percent after saying 2011 will be a “very good” year.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 2.6 percent to 223.02 at 3:05 p.m. in London after declining 5 percent in the previous three days. The drop had left the measure trading at 9.1 times estimated earnings, near the cheapest since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“It seems politicians behind the scenes are making a determined effort to get more ahead of the curve dealing with the euro debt crisis,” said Witold Bahrke, a Copenhagen-based senior strategist at PFA Pension A/S, which manages $45 billion. “Politicians may be moving closer to securing a recapitalization of banks and a more drastic solution on Greece.”

The Financial Times quoted Olli Rehn, European Union commissioner for economic affairs, late yesterday as saying there’s an “increasingly shared view” that the region needs a coordinated approach to halt the debt crisis. EU officials are working on plans to boost bank capital to contain the euro- region’s debt crisis, the International Monetary Fund said.

‘Working Together’

“There is no secret at all that European authorities and the European Commission are all working together on a plan to bring more official capital, more public-sector capital, into the banking sector,” Antonio Borges, the IMF’s European department head, said today in Brussels. “More should be done on a cross-border basis.”

Benchmark indexes rose in all 18 western European markets, with the exception of Denmark and Iceland. The DAX climbed 3.1 percent in Frankfurt. France’s CAC 40 rose 2.8 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 2.1 percent. Denmark’s KFX Index dropped 1.4 percent.

Signs that the debt crisis is hampering growth have prompted speculation the ECB will lower borrowing costs at a policy meeting tomorrow. Eleven of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg say it will cut its benchmark interest rate by at least a quarter-percentage point from the current rate of 1.5 percent. The others expect no change.

Retail Sales

European retail sales declined in August as the debt crisis and slowing economic growth prompted households from Germany to Ireland to cut spending. Sales in the 17-nation euro region decreased 0.3 percent from July, when they rose 0.2 percent, the European Union’s statistics office said. That matched the median forecast of 22 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

“Today’s relief will be short-lived as in the past weeks,” said Markus Wallner a senior equity strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “It all depends on policy news and the rise today is not sustainable. If politicians want to get ahead of the game they’ll have to respond faster.”

Data from ADP Employer Services showed U.S. companies added 91,000 jobs last month, beating the average estimate of 75,000 workers in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The release comes two days before the Labor Department’s employment report for September, which is forecast to show an increase of 60,000 jobs in the world’s largest economy.

Dexia Gains

Dexia rose 6.5 percent to 1.07 euros as Belgium’s biggest bank plans to pool its troubled assets into a “bad bank” with Belgian and French government guarantees to protect depositors and its municipal-lending business.

The Belgian-French lender bailed out by the two governments in 2008 will put its “legacy” division, which held 113 billion euros ($150 billion) of assets at the end of June, into the bad bank, Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme told reporters in Brussels yesterday. Finance Minister Didier Reynders said details of the plan will be released after talks with partners.

Dexia emerged from the 1996 merger of Credit Local de France and Credit Communal de Belgique SA, the biggest municipal lenders in their respective countries. Unlike Credit Local de France, which relied exclusively on wholesale funding for its lending, the Belgian firm also operated a retail bank in Belgium and a private bank in Luxembourg.

French Banks

BNP Paribas (BNP) rallied 6.3 percent to 28.87 euros as a gauge of European banks rose 3.3 percent. Societe Generale advanced 5.1 percent to 18.96 euros and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) increased 7.8 percent to 5.07 euros.

Rio Tinto, the world’s second-biggest mining company, rallied 5 percent to 2,847.5 pence and BHP Billiton Ltd. gained 5 percent to 1,750 pence.

EADS, the parent of planemaker Airbus, advanced 4.6 percent to 20.74 euros. Chief Marketing and Strategy Officer Marwan Lahoud said in an interview on BFM radio that the company will have a “very good” 2011, helped by recovery in the global aviation market.

J Sainsbury Plc (SBRY), the U.K.’s third-biggest supermarket company, climbed 3.4 percent to 284.1 pence after saying second- quarter sales rose at the same pace as the first three months of the year as shoppers bought more of its own-brand food ranges.

To contact the reporter on this story: Peter Levring in Copenhagen at plevring1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer in London at arummer@bloomberg.net



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U.S. Stocks Fall as Investors Watch for Signs on Europe Crisis

By Rita Nazareth - Oct 5, 2011 8:41 PM GMT+0700
Enlarge image U.S. Stock Futures Advance; Yahoo Climbs

Yahoo! Inc. climbed 2.3 percent after a report that the company is preparing to send financial information to potential buyers. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg


U.S. stocks fell, following yesterday’s rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as investors watched for signs Europe was making progress to contain its debt crisis.

Financial companies had the biggest decline in the S&P 500 among 10 industries. Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. lost more than 3.3 percent. Apple Inc. (AAPL), the world’s largest technology company, slumped 1.9 percent, dropping for an eighth straight day. Home Depot Inc. (HD), the largest U.S. home improvement retailer, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. slid at least 2 percent after analysts cut their recommendations.

The S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent to 1,116.76 at 9:39 a.m. New York time. The index jumped 2.3 percent yesterday after plunging more than a 20 percent intraday from an April peak, the threshold of a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 58.80 points, or 0.5 percent, to 10,749.91 today.

“The jury is still out,” Bruce Bittles, who helps oversee $85 billion as chief investment strategist at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., said in a telephone interview. “The market’s ability to continue to rally will depend on whether the economy will slip into recession or continue in slow growth pace. There’s no easy, painless solution out of the European situation. It’s complicated.”

Stocks reversed losses in the final hour of trading yesterday after a report in the Financial Times quoted Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic affairs, as saying there is an “increasingly shared view” that the region needs a coordinated approach to halt the sovereign debt crisis. The European Union doesn’t have a new plan to recapitalize banks, the European Commission said today.

‘Bad Bank’

The International Monetary Fund said EU officials are working on plans to boost bank capital. France and Belgium said a “bad bank” will be set up to hold Dexia SA’s troubled assets. Moody’s cut Italy’s grade for the first time in almost two decades.

Equities futures briefly rose as data from ADP Employer Services showed companies in the U.S. added 91,000 jobs in September. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an advance of 75,000. Service industries in the U.S. probably expanded in September at a slower pace, showing the recovery is struggling to gain speed, economists said before data due 10 a.m.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net




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HP to Decide Whether to Spin Off PC Unit: CEO

By Carol Hymowitz and Aaron Ricadela - Oct 5, 2011 7:24 AM GMT+0700

Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) aims to decide whether to spin off its personal-computer division by the end of October, Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman said at a conference today, pushing up the company’s timetable.

Whitman, who succeeded Leo Apotheker as CEO of the world’s largest PC maker last month, was speaking at a conference on women in leadership sponsored by Fortune magazine. Under Apotheker, who resigned as CEO Sept. 22, the company had said it would decide on the $41 billion division’s fate by the end of the year. It’s critical that Hewlett-Packard make the decision more quickly, Whitman said.

“We have to make a final decision about what to do with the PC division,” she said. “It’s a decision I want to make much faster than my predecessor. I want to make it before the end of October.”

Whitman took over from Apotheker after a series of jarring strategy shifts and three quarters of reduced sales forecasts cut short his tenure. Whitman told conference attendees in Laguna Niguel, California, it would be “very helpful” if the company met analysts’ expectations in the fiscal fourth quarter ending Oct. 31. According to Bloomberg data, analysts are predicting sales of $32.1 billion and profit of $1.13 a share.

“It would be very helpful if we made those with our heads high,” said Whitman. “I don’t have a lot of control over that.”

Romney’s Advice

Integrating the company’s $10.3 billion purchase of software company Autonomy Corp. is also important, she said.

Whitman said she consulted with her family and mentors including Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who advised her to work for Hewlett-Packard, which he called an “American icon.”

Losing the governor’s race in California last year taught her to communicate better with groups and weather criticism, she added. Hewlett-Packard employees need to recover from “a post- traumatic syndrome” as a result of the company’s succession of CEOs, Whitman said.

Shares of Hewlett-Packard gained 82 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $23.02 today on the New York Stock Exchange.

To contact the reporters on this story: Carol Hymowitz in New York at chymowitz1@bloomberg.net; Aaron Ricadela in San Francisco at aricadela@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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Sprint to Offer IPhone in Battle With Carriers

By Sarah Frier and Scott Moritz - Oct 5, 2011 3:10 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Sprint to Offer IPhone in Battle With AT&T, Verizon Wireless

Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., speaks during an event at the company's headquarters in Cupertino, California, on Oct. 4, 2011. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg


Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), the third- largest U.S. wireless operator, struck a deal to offer Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s latest iPhone, joining rivals AT&T Inc. (T) and Verizon Wireless in selling the device.

Sprint will begin selling the iPhone 4S on Oct. 14 along with its competitors. The iPhone 4S uses two antennas to improve call quality and a processor that is seven times faster than the chip in the previous phone, Apple said today at a press conference at its headquarters in Cupertino, California.

“They have been at a competitive disadvantage and this puts them on a level playing field with AT&T and Verizon,” said Michael Nelson, an analyst with Mizuho Securities USA Inc. “They will benefit from improved retention of their customers and a high level of customer upgrades.”

Sprint has been struggling to compete against Verizon Wireless and AT&T, the two largest U.S. wireless operators, which both already offer the Apple device. The Overland Park, Kansas-based company has lost money for 15 consecutive quarters and in July reported a decline in contract customers that was larger than some analysts had estimated. Lack of the iPhone has been the top reason customers choose other carriers, Chief Executive Officer Dan Hesse told investors last month.

Verizon Wireless, which is majority owned by Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), added the iPhone in February after almost four years of AT&T exclusivity. In the second quarter, the first full quarter with two iPhone carriers, AT&T activated 3.6 million of the devices, while Verizon, the largest wireless carrier, activated 2.3 million.

Boost Sales

Sprint gained 13 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $2.86 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange trading. The stock has dropped 32 percent this year.

Sprint may add 214,000 new contract subscribers this year with the iPhone, compared with 855,000 customers it lost last year, said John Hodulik, an analyst with UBS AG, who rates the shares “neutral.” Hodulik estimates Sprint will sell 1.2 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, with about 25 percent of those coming from other carriers.

Sprint will offer the phone with unlimited data service and plans to distinguish itself from AT&T and Verizon Wireless, people familiar with the matter said last month. That could draw customers away from the other carriers, said Todd Rethemeier, an analyst at Hudson Square Research in New York.

Sprint already offers unlimited data plans for smartphones such as Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM)’s BlackBerry and HTC Corp. (2498)’s Evo, which runs on Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android operating system.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Frier in New York at sfrier1@bloomberg.net; Scott Moritz in New York at Smoritz6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Elstrom at pelstrom@bloomberg.net



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Apple Quickens iPhone, Improves Camera

By Adam Satariano - Oct 5, 2011 3:14 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Apple Debuts IPhone 4S With Faster Chip

Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., speaks during an event at the company's headquarters in Cupertino, California, on Oct. 4, 2011. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Shaw Wu, an analyst with Sterne, Agee & Leach Inc., talks about Apple Inc.'s introduction of its iPhone 4S and the outlook for the company's sales growth. Wu speaks with Adam Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Mike Abramsky, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, talks about Apple Inc.'s introduction of its iPhone 4S with a speedier processor, higher-resolution camera and new voice-recognition system. Abramsky speaks with Cory Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Bottom Line." (Source: Bloomberg)

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Rodman & Renshaw LLC in New York, talks about Apple Inc.'s introduction of its iPhone 4S with a speedier processor, higher-resolution camera and new voice-recognition system. Kumar speaks with Mark Crumpton on Bloomberg Television's "Bottom Line." (Source: Bloomberg)

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray Cos., talks about the Apple Inc.'s new iPhone, the impact on the smartphone market and consumer expectations. Apple 's next iPhone, due to be unveiled at an event today, may be a showcase for improved voice controls. Munster speaks with Betty Liu and Jon Erlichman on Bloomberg Television's "In the Looop." (Source: Bloomberg)


Apple Inc. (AAPL), in its first product unveiling since Steve Jobs resigned as chief executive officer, introduced a faster iPhone with voice features and a higher- resolution camera to help it vie with Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android.

The new iPhone 4S’s A5 chip will make graphics seven times faster than the old processor, Apple said today at an event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. The model will cost $199, $299 and $399, depending on features, and will be sold by Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) for the first time. Apple already has agreements with AT&T Inc. (T) and Verizon Wireless.

The update of Apple’s best-selling product marks an early test for Tim Cook, CEO since Aug. 24, who hasn’t shown he can match his predecessor’s skills at product design and marketing. While the iPhone is the world’s most popular smartphone, Google’s Android software is more widely used, showing up in devices from Samsung Electronics Co. and HTC Corp. Apple let down some investors today by not unveiling a more groundbreaking iPhone 5 model, though shares rebounded late in the day.

“There is some disappointment that only one new iPhone has been announced,” said Shaw Wu, an analyst at Birmingham, Alabama-based Sterne Agee.

Jobs, who remains Apple’s chairman, didn’t appear at the event today. The 56-year-old has taken three medical leaves over the past seven years amid a battle with a rare form of cancer.

Camera Phone

The iPhone 4S, available Oct. 14, will have a camera with 60 percent more pixels and can handle high-definition video. The device also relies on an “intelligent antenna system” that’s designed to improve call quality and works with both CDMA and GSM wireless standards. Users will have up to 8 hours of talk time on one charge.

“For many customers, the iPhone 4S will be the best still camera they’ve ever owned, the best video camera they’ve ever owned, and it’s with them all the time,” said Phil Schiller, a senior vice president in charge of product marketing.

A new voice-recognition system, meanwhile, will turn the device into a hands-free personal assistant. The technology lets users check weather, get directions or surf the Web using speech commands. Apple already had basic voice-control abilities on the iPhone for placing a call or accessing a song.

Apple acquired a speech-recognition software company last year called Siri, which helped it develop the new features. The system relies on artificial intelligence to handle users’ questions.

‘Who Are You?’

Scott Forstall, a senior vice president in charge of iPhone software, demonstrated the technology on stage by asking the phone, “Who are you?”

It responded, “I am a humble personal assistant.”

The features, combined with the more aggressive prices, will give Apple an edge, said Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Oregon.

“Siri is very unique from what I’ve seen and should continue to differentiate them at the high end,” he said.

The older iPhone 4 model will now cost $99, and the iPhone 3GS will be free with a wireless contract, Apple said.

The company also demonstrated iCloud, a new service for storing files such as pictures and music on Apple’s remote servers. That means the files can be accessed through iPads, iPhones and Macs, and mobile devices no longer have to sync up to a computer. Apple will give away advertising-free e-mail as part of the service, which comes out Oct. 12.

Twitter Features

Apple showed off other new software features, including an integration with Twitter Inc. that lets users quickly post updates to the social-blogging service. Apple’s new iOS 5 operating system, which runs its mobile devices, also will be available for free on Oct. 12.

The iPhone accounted for almost half Apple’s sales in the most recent quarter. Combined, the iPhone, iPad tablet and iPod Touch touch-screen media player have sold 250 million units in total, Apple said today. There are now more than 500,000 applications in the company’s App Store, which has generated $3 billion for developers since its debut in 2008.

“In three years, customers have downloaded 18 billion apps -- and it’s accelerating,” Forstall said at today’s event. The rate is now over 1 billion per month, he said.

The company also is making inroads with corporate users. Ninety-three percent of Fortune 500 companies are testing the iPhone for use by their employees, and 92 percent are trying out the iPad, Apple said today.

Smartphone Showdown

At stake is leadership in the market for smartphones, which is projected to double by 2015, when 1 billion of the handsets will be sold, according to research firm IDC. While Apple is the single biggest smartphone maker, the Android coalition leads the market, accounting for 41.7 percent.

It’s been 16 months since the last iPhone release -- a longer lag than usual. The pent-up demand may help Apple sell a record 25 million iPhones during the December quarter, according to estimates by Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray Cos. The lack of an all-new iPhone, with a different outer design, won’t deter buyers, he said.

“Everyone would have liked a new form factor, but they’re still going to sell a boatload, and there will be long lines,” Munster said. “It’s less about hardware and more about software and services.”

The success of the iPhone has helped Apple’s stock weather market turmoil and the resignation of the CEO who made Apple the world’s most valuable company. The shares have climbed 15 percent this year. Apple fell $2.10, or less than 1 percent, to $372.50 at 4 p.m. New York time on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Chinese Growth

The company is looking to China to fuel a new wave of growth. Apple plans “a lot more” stores for the country, Cook said today. The company’s retail outlet in Shanghai had 100,000 visitors on its opening weekend, he said.

Voice recognition is emerging as the latest arena for Apple’s rivalry with Google, which has spent years promoting speech technology. Current Google features transcribe voice messages to text and perform Web searches based on verbal commands. The challenge so far has been getting mainstream users to adopt the technology, said venture capitalist Larry Marcus, who has invested in speech-recognition company SoundHound Inc.

The new speech technology builds on a service Apple introduced in 2009 called Voice Control, which lets users make a call or play music by speaking into the phone. Those features haven’t taken off among the general public, Marcus said.

Apple also gave updated figures on its Mac computer division. The new OS X Lion operating system has been downloaded 6 million times, and the Mac business has an installed user base of 58 million, Cook said.

Apple’s iPod, meanwhile, remains an important business, Cook said -- even as the iPhone cannibalizes some of its sales. The company introduced a new $129 version of the iPod Nano and a range of iPod Touch models starting at $199.

The iPod, which made its debut 10 years ago, has reached sales of 300 million units globally.

“It took Sony 30 years to sell 220 million Walkman cassette players,” Cook said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Satariano in San Francisco at asatariano1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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RIM Gains on Speculation It May Explore Strategic Options

By Hugo Miller - Oct 5, 2011 3:24 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image RIM Surges on Speculation It May Explore Strategic Options

An advertisement for a Research In Motion Ltd. BlackBerry smartphone is displayed in the window of a Redington (India) Ltd. BlackBerry service center in Mumbai on Sept. 28, 2011. Photographer: Adeel Halim/Bloomberg


Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM), maker of the BlackBerry smartphone, climbed amid speculation the company may have hired an investment bank to explore strategic options.

“It’s looking less and less likely that they can make the turnaround on their own,” said Tavis McCourt, an analyst at Morgan Keegan Inc. in Nashville, Tennessee, who rates RIM “market perform.” “So whether they’re hiring an investment bank to help defend themselves against activists or outright sell themselves or explore alternatives, those are the kinds of stories that make sense to investors.”

RIM has plunged 64 percent this year as the company lost ground to Apple and handset makers that use Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android operating system. The Waterloo, Ontario-based BlackBerry maker’s share of the global smartphone market fell to 12 percent in the second quarter from 19 percent a year earlier, according to Gartner Inc.

RIM rose 50 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $21 at 4 p.m. New York time on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The stock had earlier gained as much as 9.7 percent before paring those gains after Apple announced a new version of its iPhone.

Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook unveiled its iPhone 4S, with a chip seven times faster than the current model. Cook said that 92 percent of Fortune 500 companies are using or testing Apple’s iPad, which outshipped RIM’s BlackBerry PlayBook tablet computer 46 to 1 last quarter. Ninety-three percent of those companies are testing the iPhone, he also said.

New QNX Phone

Last week, RIM climbed on speculation that billionaire Carl Icahn may take a stake in the company. Icahn, a veteran corporate raider, had pushed for a board seat at handset maker Motorola Inc. and pressured the company to split in two, which it did in January. In August, Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc., the business that makes mobile phones, agreed to sell itself to Google for $12.5 billion.

RIM spokeswoman Tenille Kennedy declined to comment.

Co-chief Executive Officers Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie said last month a sales recovery is imminent, citing the “excellent reception” that a new range of BlackBerry 7 phones have received. The company is also counting on a new phone in 2012 based on its QNX operating system winning over more customers than the PlayBook.

RIM shipped 200,000 of the QNX-based PlayBooks last quarter, down from 500,000 in the previous period when they first went on sale. That bodes badly for RIM’s turnaround and means RIM is destined at some point to recruit a bank to consider strategic changes, said Mike Genovese, an analyst at MKM Partners.

“They’ve already weakened QNX by putting out a PlayBook that nobody wanted,” said Genovese, who rates RIM “neutral.” “If they haven’t done it yet, they will eventually hire investment bankers to explore alternatives as there’s a certain inevitability to this story.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Hugo Miller in Toronto at hugomiller@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Elstrom at pelstrom@bloomberg.net





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Mortgage REITs Rise Erasing Steep Losses

By Jody Shenn and Felice Maranz - Oct 5, 2011 3:54 AM GMT+0700

Real estate investment trusts that buy U.S. mortgage debt rose, erasing losses that had reached the steepest since December 2008 amid concern that their main source of financing could be roiled by European bank woes.

Mortgage REITs including Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) and American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) rose 1 percent at 4:15 p.m. in New York, after earlier falling as much as 6 percent, according to a Bloomberg index tracking 33 shares. The stocks swung to gains as U.S. stocks rallied amid speculation that European Union officials are examining how to recapitalize the region’s banks. Losses over the past two days among the REITs had reached as much as 11.1 percent, the biggest drop in almost three years.

France and Belgium pledged today to support Dexia SA after the bank’s board met to discuss a possible break-up as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis reduced its ability to obtain funding. While the repurchase-agreement, or repo, market for government- backed mortgage bonds that many REITS rely on for funding is in “good” shape, it may face pressure if Europe’s banks need to retrench, American Capital President Gary Kain said.

“We see that as being a potential pressure on rates, not on availability,” Kain, whose company had $43.6 billion of assets as of June 30, said today in a telephone interview. Higher rates are possible in part because the Federal Reserve is selling short-term Treasuries in its “Operation Twist” program that began this month, he said.

Kain’s Bethesda, Maryland-based firm hasn’t seen European banks pulling out of the market and “we have had no major line reductions,” he said. “If anything over the last couple of weeks, we have had” the credit lines go up in size.

Repo Rates

The cost of one-month repo financing for agency mortgage securities fell 2 basis points today to 25 basis points as of 3:01 p.m., according to data from ICAP Plc, the world’s largest inter-dealer broker. The rate has climbed from 20 basis points on Aug. 31, tracking increases in the benchmark London interbank offered rate. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Declines in mortgage REIT’s may have also reflected concern about the companies’ investment opportunities, said Richard Eckert, an analyst at B. Riley & Co. Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp. (ANH) yesterday announced a dividend two cents lower than its previous quarterly payout, saying higher homeowner refinancing eroded returns, and said it plans to buy back as much as 2 million in shares.

Deploying Capital

The share repurchases are “a signal to me they cannot find enough ARM assets at their targeted spreads and ROEs to fully deploy their capital, so they are returning it to shareholders,” Eckert wrote in an e-mail, using acronyms for adjustable-rate mortgages and return on equity.

John Hillman, a spokesman for Santa Monica, California- based Anworth, said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd McAdams wasn’t available to comment. Jay Diamond, a spokesman for Annaly, didn’t return a message.

The repo market is used by investors and dealers to finance their securities holdings. Rates are typically below unsecured borrowing costs because the loans are collateralized.

In a repo arrangement, a lender sends cash to a borrower in return for collateral such as Treasuries or mortgage bonds which the borrower agrees to repurchase as soon as the next day. Interest and credit protection for the lender is built into how much cash gets extended and returned.

‘Uncomfortable’ Roll

“People often get uncomfortable with the amount of the paper that has to get rolled over every month” by mortgage REITs using repo, Matthew Howlett, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd., said in a telephone interview. “There’s always potentially liquidity problems. And when there’s an issue with the banks that provide the liquidity, it can become an issue for the REITs.”

Many of the mortgage REITs survived the global financial crisis that peaked after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) failed in 2008, said Howlett. “At the end of the day, the model still works and we’ll still get through this.”

Anworth’s dividend cut also weighed on mortgage REIT shares by reminding investors of the dangers of rising prepayments amid record low mortgage rates, he added. Under accounting rules, REITs that bought bonds for more than face value need to write off the premiums faster as prepayments rise.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jody Shenn in New York at jshenn@bloomberg.net; Felice Maranz in New York at fmaranz@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alan Goldstein at agoldstein5@bloomberg.net




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Buffett Likens Berkshire Repurchases to Buying Dollar Bills for 90 Cents

By Andrew Frye - Oct 5, 2011 3:29 AM GMT+0700

Warren Buffett, who announced plans to repurchase Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) shares for the first time in four decades, said he won’t pay full value for the stock.

“If I can buy dollar bills for 90 cents, I’ll buy them,” Buffett, 81, said today at Fortune magazine’s Most Powerful Women conference in Laguna Niguel, California. “I want to warn the people that are selling to me that I believe I am buying their dollar bills for 90 cents.”

Buffett targeted a new use for Berkshire’s cash after the firm’s shares plummeted to a 20-month low in September. Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer since 1970, previously used profits to buy companies and securities issued by other firms. Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire may have the capacity to buy back $15 billion of stock, Jay Gelb, an analyst with Barclays Plc, said in a Sept. 26 research report.

“For the indefinite future, if we can buy our stock at something of a discount from its real value we’re going to do it,” Buffett said. “If I can find something else even cheaper I may be doing that too.”

Berkshire Class A shares slid under $100,000 on Sept. 22 for the first time since January 2010. The company’s catastrophe reinsurance business posted a loss in the first half on claims from Japan’s costliest earthquake. Buffett’s equity-derivative bets have been pressured by declines in stock markets worldwide.

The A shares advanced 4.3 percent to $110,300 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. That compares with book value of about $98,700 per share as of June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company may report third- quarter data next month.

Acquisitions

Earnings from Berkshire’s businesses have grown to about $1 billion a month, and finding uses for that cash has become more difficult, Buffett said in April. Last year, Buffett bought the 78 percent of railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe that his firm didn’t already own in a $26.5 billion deal, funded partly by issuing Berkshire stock. Berkshire acquired engine-additives maker Lubrizol Corp. (LZ) last month for about $9 billion.

Berkshire will buy back Class A and Class B shares for as much as 110 percent of book value, a measure of assets minus liabilities, and refrain from any repurchase that would push cash holdings below $20 billion, the company said in a Sept. 26 statement. Berkshire had about $47.9 billion in cash as of June 30. The stock traded at an average of more than 1.5 times book value since the end of 1999, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

‘Demonstrably Less’

“I use this figure of 110 percent of book as being the limit because I know that that price is demonstrably less than the businesses are worth,” Buffett said today. “The book value happens to be an understated measure” of Berkshire’s value.

Buffett is preparing Berkshire for its next generation of leaders. His roles as CEO, chairman and investment chief will be split among as many as five people after his eventual retirement. Buffett hired Todd Combs and Ted Weschler from hedge funds to help oversee a stock and bond portfolio of about $100 billion and may add another money manager. Berkshire said in February it has four candidates for CEO, without naming them.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at dkraut2@bloomberg.net



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