Economic Calendar

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

News Corp. James Murdoch Received E-Mail on ’Nightmare’ Hacking Scenario

By Jonathan Browning - Dec 13, 2011 10:46 PM GMT+0700

News Corp. Deputy Chief Operating Officer James Murdoch received an e-mail in 2008 that described the “nightmare scenario” that phone hacking went beyond a single reporter at the News of the World tabloid.

The e-mail from former editor Colin Myler contained previous exchanges between two lawyers that referred to transcripts of voicemail messages, according to documents released today by the U.K. Parliament’s Culture, Media and Sport Committee.

Murdoch told lawmakers last month that Myler never told him in 2008 that phone hacking at the newspaper was widespread. Revelations that the News of the World hacked into phones of celebrities, politicians and a murdered schoolgirl led to the closing of the 168-year-old tabloid.

“Unfortunately it is as bad as we feared,” Myler told Murdoch in the 2008 e-mail.

Murdoch said in a separate letter to U.K. lawmakers that he didn’t review the full e-mail.

In another statement today, Murdoch said that he reviewed the e-mail for two minutes on a Saturday when he was not in the office. “As I have always said, I was not aware of evidence of widespread wrongdoing or the need for further investigation.”

Lawyers for News Corp. (NWSA)’s News International unit said in the e-mail chain that a lawsuit had uncovered “the nightmare scenario” of a document that contained transcripts of voicemail messages. The e-mail in the lawsuit contained a summary of 35 messages and has become a focal point of the phone-hacking probe.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Browning in London at jbrowning9@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Anthony Aarons at aaarons@bloomberg.net





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China’s 150 Million Electric Bicycles Bolstering Lead Demand: Commodities

By Bloomberg News - Dec 13, 2011 10:34 PM GMT+0700

The global glut in lead is falling to a five-year low as China, the biggest buyer, consumes a record amount to make batteries for everything from cars to emergency lighting to electric bicycles.

The supply surplus will drop to 8,000 metric tons in 2012 from 78,000 tons this year as China, which accounts for about 44 percent of global demand, uses 9.5 percent more, Morgan Stanley estimates. Prices may rise as much as 19 percent to $2,500 a ton next year, according to the median estimate of 18 producers, analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg.

While lead slumped 18 percent this year amid mounting investor concern that slower economic growth will sap the use of raw materials, analysts and traders say prices will rally because consumption is expanding. Demand will advance for a 10th consecutive year in 2012, and for at least four more years after that, Morgan Stanley predicts.

“Forty-five percent of demand is recession-proof,” said Stephen Briggs, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London who has been following the market for three decades. “Demand for replacement batteries will continue at more or less the same rate whether there is a recession or not a recession.”

Lead fell to $2,100.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange this year, heading for its first annual decline since 2008. That compares with a 21 percent drop in the LMEX index of six industrial metals. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities rose 3 percent, led by gasoil, gold and feed cattle. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities retreated 9.9 percent and Treasuries returned 9.2 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

700 Producers

About 80 percent of lead is used in batteries, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group in Lisbon. Production in China, the biggest exporter, may rise about 20 percent in 2012, according to the Beijing-based China Battery Industry Association, which represents more than 700 producers. That will use a total of about 3.3 million tons of lead.

Global supply of refined lead will advance 3.8 percent to 10.22 million tons next year, compared with a 4.6 percent gain in consumption, Morgan Stanley estimates. Global production is valued at almost $25 billion based on this year’s average price.

Chinese demand shored up consumption during the global recession. Growth is now slowing after the central bank raised interest rates three times and lifted the reserve-requirement ratio six times this year to curb inflation. Reserve requirements were cut for the first time since 2008 on Dec. 5. The economy will expand by 8.5 percent next year, from 9.2 percent in 2010, the median of 11 economist forecasts compiled by Bloomberg show.

‘Exponential Growth’

China’s manufacturing contracted for the first time since February 2009 in November, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported Dec. 1. Export growth slowed to 13.8 percent in November from a year earlier, the weakest pace since December 2009, according to data released by the customs bureau Dec. 10. Import growth slowed to 22.1 percent.

“The time for an exponential growth of demand in China has passed,” said Shi Lei, an analyst at Cofco Futures Co. in Beijing. “Even if part of lead demand is inelastic during economic downturns, it may still be hard to stand out when all markets are under pressure.”

While the surplus is shrinking, stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose 73 percent since the start of January, reaching a record 388,500 tons on Oct. 14, bourse data show. That’s equal to about two weeks of demand.

Shanghai Futures

Inventories are now starting to decline, retreating 7 percent since reaching the all-time high. Canceled warrants, a measure of how much metal is on order to be removed from warehouses, touched 47,700 tons yesterday, the most since at least 1997. Metal in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped in nine of the past 11 weeks, bourse data show.

Manufacturing in China is expected to expand next year in part because of revised environmental regulations that may be announced by year-end. Restrictions were tightened after hundreds of people were poisoned in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces in May and June. The government suspended output at almost 90 percent of lead-acid battery makers in the past several months, Cao Guoqing, deputy secretary general of the China Battery Industry Association, said in an e-mail Nov. 15.

China will have 150 million electric bikes by 2015, compared with 120 million in 2010, according to the association. Each bike uses an average of 13 kilograms (28.7 pounds) of lead, according to Brook Hunt, a research unit of Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

Commercial Vehicles

Global sales of cars and light commercial vehicles will rise 6.5 percent to a record 79.5 million cars in 2012, according to LMC Automotive Ltd., a research company in Oxford, England. China’s passenger-car sales will advance as much as 10 percent, according to estimates from General Motors Co., Volkswagen AG, Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co.

Higher lead prices should bolster profit for Melbourne- based BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the biggest lead-mining company. It will report a 2.5 percent drop in net income to $23.05 billion this year, still the second-highest profit ever, according to the mean of 19 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“The picture seems to be moving from one of physical surplus to one of physical scarcity,” said Nic Brown, head of commodities research at Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd. in London. “What has been a picture of very strong supply growth in recent years may be beginning to tail off.”

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Helen Sun in Shanghai at hsun30@bloomberg.net; Agnieszka Troszkiewicz in London at atroszkiewic@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Richard Dobson at rdobson4@bloomberg.net




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Stocks Trim Gain, Euro Slumps to 11-Month Low on EU Bailout-Fund Concerns

By Rita Nazareth and Michael P. Regan - Dec 13, 2011 11:16 PM GMT+0700

U.S. stocks trimmed early gains and the euro slid to the lowest level versus the dollar since January amid concern Europe’s leaders won’t agree on ways to expand the region’s rescue fund.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,238.22 at 11:13 a.m. in New York after climbing as much as 1.1 percent. The euro weakened as much as 1 percent to $1.3057 as it fell against 13 of 16 major peers. Oil climbed 2.1 percent to $99.82 after rallying as much as 3.6 percent following a report that Iran will hold drills to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Stocks and the euro turned lower as Reuters reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected raising the upper limit of funding for the European Stability Mechanism, the region’s permanent bailout fund. Earlier gains in equities came after German investor confidence improved, Spain sold more debt than planned at an auction and investors awaited a statement from the Federal Reserve on interest rates and the economy.

“The Fed is going to say the economy is in relatively sluggish state and that they stand ready to do whatever is needed in order to make sure that we don’t fall back into recession,” Michael Mullaney, who helps manage $9.5 billion at Fiduciary Trust in Boston, said in a telephone interview. “The only thing that’s holding back the market is obviously the daily news coming out of Europe.”

A gauge of energy producers led gains among the main industry group sin the S&P 500, rising more than 0.9 percent after surging as much as 2.2 percent. Marathon Oil Corp. and Murphy Oil Corp. climbed at least 1.9 percent to lead an advance in 27 of 42 energy companies in the S&P 500.

Retailers Slip

Retailers fell 1.4 percent as a group, the worst performance among 24 industries in the S&P 500, after the government reported that retail sales rose in November at the slowest pace in five months. The 0.2 percent gain followed a 0.6 percent advance in October that was more than initially reported, Commerce Department figures showed. Economists projected a 0.6 percent November increase, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

The Fed may keep its target rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent at a policy meeting today, a Bloomberg survey showed. The Fed will probably revise its pledge to keep interest rates close to zero through mid-2013 as the need for large scale asset purchases diminishes, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The Fed will alter the interest rate commitment before June, according to 64 percent of economists surveyed, with 51 percent saying the central bank will abandon the option of a third round of buying bonds, or so-called QE3.

Crude Trims Gain

Crude pared gains after an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the Strait of Hormuz isn’t closed. The comments on the strait were made by people who don’t have an official title, said Ramin Mehmanparast, the spokesman.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased most of an earlier 1.2 percent gain

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of German investor and analyst expectations unexpectedly rose for the first time in 10 months, rebounding from a three- year low. The ZEW confidence index increased to minus 53.8 in December from a three-year low of minus 55.2 the previous month. The gauge was forecast to drop to minus 55.8, according to the median of 34 estimates in Bloomberg survey of economists. Its index of current conditions fell to 26.8 from 34.2 in November, compared with a reading of 31 in a Bloomberg survey.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in Sao Paulo at rnazareth@bloomberg.net; Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net




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Death of Gold Bull Market Seen by Gartman

By Nicholas Larkin - Dec 13, 2011 10:12 PM GMT+0700

Gold, in the 11th year of its longest winning streak in at least nine decades, is poised to enter a bear market, according to Dennis Gartman, who correctly predicted the slump in commodities in 2008.

The metal, which traded at $1,666.30 an ounce at 2:43 p.m. in London, may decline to as low as $1,475, the economist wrote today in his Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter. He sold the last of his gold yesterday. Bullion has already dropped 13 percent from the record $1,921.15 reached Sept. 6 and $1,475 would extend that to more than 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market.

“Since the early autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere gold has failed to make a new high,” Gartman wrote. “Each high has been progressively lower than the previous high, and now we’ve confirmation that the new interim low is lower than the previous low. We have the beginnings of a real bear market, and the death of a bull.”

The metal typically moves inversely to the dollar, which today reached a two-month high against the euro after Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday that a European Union summit last week offered little help in ending the region’s debt crisis. Bullion is still 17 percent higher this year and holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products are at a record, a hoard now valued at $126.5 billion.

Gold’s 2011 Gain

Gold’s performance this year compares with a 2.8 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities, in which it is the third-best performer behind gasoil and cattle. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities retreated 9.8 percent and Treasuries returned 9.2 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

The slump in equities spurred some investors to sell their gold to cover losses. Open interest, or contracts outstanding, in gold futures traded on the Comex exchange in New York, fell to 427,756 contracts, from 546,601 in July, bourse data show.

“So much damage has been done to the psychology of the market in the past week and so many late longs have been caught off guard that we think wholesale liquidation, and perhaps forced liquidation, shall be the outcome,” Gartman wrote.

ETP investors are increasingly bullish. Holdings in the products climbed 3.8 metric tons to an all-time high of 2,360.5 tons yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s equal to more than 10 months of global mine supply and greater than the reserves of all but four of the world’s central banks, which are expanding holdings for the first time in a generation.

Money Managers

Hedge funds and other money managers boosted bets on higher futures prices for the first time in three weeks. Net-long positions in gold futures and options rose by 3.5 percent to 151,347 contracts in the week ended Dec. 6, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s still down 40 percent since the beginning of August, when positions were at the highest level since at least June 2006, the data show.

While the drop below $1,670 spurred more physical buying from India and South East Asia, the demand increase is from “relatively low” levels, Standard Bank Plc wrote today in a report. UBS AG said its physical flows to India yesterday were “well above” average and the most since Oct. 20.

“This pullback finally encouraged a response from the physical community,” Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS in London, wrote in a report. “Market participants are placing a lot of importance on physical buyers to step in and put a floor under gold. The physical response seen this week, though not yet enough to call a trend, should somewhat calm these investors.”

Imports Rise

In China, the second-largest consumer, gold imports to the mainland from Hong Kong surged 51 percent to 86.3 tons in October to a monthly record, according to the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government. China imported more than 300 tons for all of 2010, Yi Gang, People’s Bank of China Vice Governor, said in February.

“Buying of that sort should have sent gold prices soaring,” Gartman wrote. “One of the oldest rules of trading is simply this: a market that cannot or does not respond to bullish news is a bearish market not a bullish one.”

The S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities plunged as much as 66 percent in the seven months through February 2009 after Gartman in June 2008 said there would be a “tidal wave” of selling. The economist said Aug. 23 that gold was entering the stage when prices go “parabolic,” two weeks before the metal peaked at its record high.

To contact the reporters on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.




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U.S. Stocks Advance Before Fed Statement

By Rita Nazareth - Dec 13, 2011 11:03 PM GMT+0700

U.S. stocks pared gains following a report that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is rejecting an increase in the upper limit of funding for Europe’s permanent bailout mechanism.

Financial shares in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.5 percent, trimming an earlier advance of 1.2 percent. Chevron Corp. (CVX) rose 1.8 percent as energy companies had the biggest gain in the S&P 500. DuPont Co. added 0.5 percent as it predicted profit will rise as much as 12 percent in 2012. Best Buy Co. tumbled 12 percent as the largest consumer-electronics retailer’s profit trailed estimates.

The S&P 500 increased 0.4 percent to 1,241.20 at 11 a.m. New York time, after rising as much as 1.1 percent earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 45.45 points, or 0.4 percent, to 12,066.84 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting statement.

“The Fed is going to say the economy is in relatively sluggish state and that they stand ready to do whatever is needed in order to make sure that we don’t fall back into recession,” Michael Mullaney, who helps manage $9.5 billion at Fiduciary Trust in Boston, said in a telephone interview. “The market wants to do better. The only thing that’s holding back the market is obviously the daily news coming out of Europe.”

Stocks pared gains as Reuters reported that Merkel has rejected raising the upper limit of funding for the European Stability Mechanism. Equities advanced earlier even after U.S. retail sales increased in November at the slowest pace in five months. In Europe, data showed that German investor confidence unexpectedly increased. Spain sold 4.94 billion euros ($6.5 billion) of bills, more than the maximum target.

Federal Reserve Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to release a statement at around 2:15 p.m. Washington time, following its last scheduled meeting of the year.

American equities joined a global selloff yesterday as Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings said last week’s summit did little to ease pressure on Europe’s struggling governments and Intel Corp. (INTC) cut its revenue forecast.

U.S. stocks can avoid the effects of Europe’s intensifying sovereign-debt crisis, leading ABN Amro Private Banking to remain positive on the world’s largest economy, according to Chief Investment Officer Didier Duret.

‘Overweight’

The bank that manages 164 billion euros ($217 billion) for clients cut its overall allocation to equities to an “underweight” stance on Nov. 11, taking advantage of its positive stance from the middle of August. The wealth manager has maintained its “overweight” allocation in U.S. stocks, citing the prospects for corporate profit growth (SPX) and faster job creation in the country.

“The job machine is probably back in the U.S.,” Duret said in a phone interview from Amsterdam yesterday. “There is more resilience in the U.S. market from an earnings perspective. In Europe, you are seeing earnings being downgraded, but in the U.S. this is not the case.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in Sao Paulo at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net




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European Stocks Pare Earlier Advance as Banks, Insurance Companies Drop

By Julie Cruz - Dec 13, 2011 11:11 PM GMT+0700

European stocks pared their gains as banks and insurance companies dropped.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.1 percent to 236.29 at 4:10 p.m. in London, paring an earlier advance of as much as 1.2 percent. The gauge has still declined 14 percent this year amid concern the euro area’s sovereign-debt debt crisis will derail the global economic recovery.

Stocks pared their advance as Reuters reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected increasing the upper limit for the funds held by Europe’s planned permanent rescue facility. The report cited sources in the country’s ruling coalition.

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net




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Stringer’s Shopping Spree ‘Wrong Direction’ for Sony in Apple Battle: Tech

By Naoko Fujimura - Dec 13, 2011 7:38 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Sony Shopping is ‘Wrong Direction’ in Apple War

Visitors walk past the Sony Corp. booth at CEATEC JAPAN 2011 at Makuhari Messe in Chiba City, Japan. Sony, worth $100 billion in September 2000, is now valued at $18 billion. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg


Sony Corp. Chief Executive Officer Howard Stringer has announced acquisitions worth $8.4 billion this year to bolster phones and content. That may not be enough to turn around a company heading for a fourth consecutive loss.

Japan’s largest consumer-electronics exporter will pay cash to control its mobile-phone venture with Ericsson AB, partner with Michael Jackson’s estate for music assets from EMI Group, and team up with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) for patent rights. The Ericsson buyout gives Sony full access to the unit’s 6.29 billion euros ($8.3 billion) in revenue, adding to Sony’s $84 billion in sales for the year ended March 31.

Stringer’s efforts to bulk up profitable lines (6758) may not overcome the lack of demand in the U.S. and Europe for Bravia TVs, which forced the Tokyo-based company to slash its sales forecast and predict an eighth straight year of losses in the business. Sony has lost 399.3 billion yen ($5.1 billion) the past three years and predicts adding more this year amid competition with Apple and Samsung Electronics Inc. (005930)

“What Stringer needs to do is to fix the TV business, not pursue acquisitions,” said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees about $600 million in Tokyo at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. “Acquisitions aren’t going to bring back growth.”

Michael Jackson’s Estate

Sony has been hobbled by a stronger yen that reached a postwar high, waning sales, a Japan earthquake that crippled factories and Thailand flooding that cut production.

Sony, worth $100 billion in September 2000, is now valued at $18 billion, compared with Cupertino, California-based Apple at $364 billion and Samsung at $137 billion. Last month, Sony predicted 90 billion yen in losses in the year ending in March, reversing an earlier forecast for a profit of 60 billion yen.

Sony has announced nine acquisitions this year, the same as last year. The spending is more than three times greater than the prior three years combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The biggest deal is the $4.5 billion purchase of patents owned by Nortel Networks Corp. for access to technologies used in mobile phones and tablets. Sony partnered with Apple, Microsoft, Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM), Ericsson and EMC Corp. in that bid, announced in July.

Jackson’s estate, billionaire David Geffen, Mubadala Development Co. PJSC and Blackstone Group joined Sony in agreeing to buy EMI Music Publishing from Citigroup Inc. for $2.2 billion.

Hendrix, Spider-Man

“Acquisition is the wrong direction for Sony,” said Edwin Merner, president of Atlantis Investment Research Corp. in Tokyo, which manages $3 billion. “Sony must concentrate only on a few electronic products, maybe even get out of the manufacturing business.”

Sony Music, featuring Jackson, Jimi Hendrix and Kelly Clarkson, was the second-biggest contributor of operating income at Sony after financial services during the fiscal year that ended in March. Sony Pictures, producer of “The Smurfs,” “The Social Network” and “Spider-Man,” was the third-biggest.

In October, the maker of Xperia phones agreed to spend $1.5 billion in cash to purchase Ericsson’s 50 percent stake in their mobile-phone venture and integrate the smartphone business with its gaming and tablet offerings.

Other deals this year include the $118 million purchase of a Seiko Epson Corp. (6724) subsidiary in China and a $63 million deal with Toshiba, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Stringer Strategy

Sony had $16.9 billion of cash and equivalents at the end of September, according to Bloomberg data.

“We will consider mergers and acquisitions in any area and business that is necessary for growth so as to strengthen our existing operations and technology and create a new business,” Mami Imada, a Sony spokeswoman, said by phone.

Suwon, South Korea-based Samsung, with $18.4 billion of cash and equivalents on Sept. 30, made 16 acquisitions this year, totaling $831 million. The only acquisition by Apple, which had $81.6 billion on Sept. 24, was partnering with Sony in the Nortel bid.

“Stringer is buying time by purchasing companies with appreciating technology,” said Naoki Fujiwara, who helps oversee $6 billion at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The company is spending its cash to strengthen its technology and service contents.”

Sony’s TV business has lost 480 billion yen in the past seven years and is forecast to lose another 175 billion yen in the year ending in March. Sony is the world’s No. 3 TV maker, trailing Samsung and LG Electronics Inc. (066570), based in Seoul.

‘TV is Key’

The maker of Bravia TVs lowered its annual sales projection to 20 million sets from 22 million and said it was taking a 50 billion-yen charge for streamlining the TV operation.

The company is countering with plans to write down the value of some facilities, reduce the number of models and cut expenses at its marketing units.

“I have unflagging resolve” to turn the TV business around, Executive Deputy President Kazuo Hirai said Nov. 2. Sony’s management “feels a sense of crisis” about the unit’s losses, he said.

TV makers also face what Credit Suisse called a “generational culture shift surrounding video consumption.” Teens live in an Internet-based video culture that doesn’t depend on cable and satellite broadcasts, and they are satisfied with “small-screen experiences” and lower picture quality, the analysts led by New York-based Stefan Anninger said in the Nov. 28 report.

‘Apple Make Movie?’

Yet Keita Wakabayashi, an analyst at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo, said TVs are “the business that Sony can’t exit.”

“Television is the key,” said Wakabayashi, who doesn’t rate Sony. “It is at the center of the strategy to integrate hardware and software.”

That integration will help Sony take on rivals, including Apple, Stringer said last month at Berlin’s annual consumer electronics fair. He can draw on music from 13 U.S. labels and movies from Sony Pictures Classics, Columbia Pictures and TriStar Pictures.

“Apple makes an iPad, but does it make a movie?” he said. “We will prove that it’s not who makes the tablet first who counts, but who makes it better.”

Sony sells music and movies through Apple’s iTunes store, keeping 70 percent of the sales while Apple gets the remaining 30 percent. It also is expanding its online-music business by forging a partnership with Google Inc.

Sony needs to do more to “blend” those assets with its hardware in order to compete with its bigger rivals, Akino said.

“The company’s culture is to polish the technology,” he said. “Stringer knows what to focus on. The company doesn’t have the speed to catch up with Apple and Samsung.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Naoko Fujimura in Tokyo at nfujimura@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net




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London Bankers Look Past Europe’s ‘History of Antipathy’

By Kevin Crowley and Ambereen Choudhury - Dec 13, 2011 5:35 PM GMT+0700

Bankers in London, home to Europe’s biggest stock exchange (LSE), derivatives market and asset-management business, have a message for European leaders looking for greater integration: We’re happy to go it alone.

The city, which gained trading freedom from French-speaking William the Conqueror in 1067, is setting its sights on markets beyond Europe after U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron vetoed a European treaty last week.

“I don’t think the future of London is entirely dependent on Europe,” said Terry Smith, 58, chief executive officer of London broker Tullett Prebon Plc (TLPR) and asset-management firm Fundsmith LLP. “This may lead to a reconsideration of London’s future. We can go back to as it was in history, being a financial-services center to the world, including places with which we’ve got historical ties: the Americas, Asia, Africa and bits of Europe.”

Cameron cited defending London’s financial-services industry as the main reason he refused to join 26 other nations in a European Union treaty to rescue the euro last week. He was left out of further negotiations with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, leading to criticism from the Liberal Democrats, his coalition partners, that Britain would be frozen out of decision-making in Europe.

Sarkozy, Merkel

“There’s been a history of antipathy from French and German policy makers toward the City of London over the years,” said Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital in London and a former U.K. Treasury official. “Whether by accident or design, the use of the veto allows the U.K. to escape the clutches” of EU officials.

Sarkozy and Merkel have endorsed a financial-transactions tax that the European Commission says would raise 57 billion euros ($75 billion) a year. U.K. Chancellor George Osborne has called the plan an “attack” on London firms, which his government estimates would pay 80 percent of the tax.

“If the financial-transactions tax were to come into effect, it would be bad for the City,” said Rob Harbron, an economist at the Centre for Economics & Business Research Ltd. in London. “It would disproportionately affect London out of any major city in the euro zone.”

London’s Reach

London is the world’s biggest market for interest-rate derivatives, with $1.4 trillion of daily revenue, or 46 percent of the world’s total, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The U.K. is also home to the world’s biggest foreign-exchange market and 251 foreign banks, more than in any other country.

“The City is relieved” at Cameron’s refusal to sign the treaty, according to Steven Bell, chief economist at hedge fund GLC Ltd. in London and a former U.K. Treasury economist. “For the U.K. economy it’s the equivalent of North Sea oil and it’s not running out.”

The U.K.’s financial-services industry makes up about 10 percent of the country’s gross domestic product and 11 percent of its total tax receipts, according to The City U.K., a lobby group backed by the City of London Corporation, which governs the financial district. Financial-services employ more than 1 million people in the U.K., the group said.

About 288,000 of these work in the City of London, according to the CEBR. That’s 9.3 percent fewer than in 2010 and the lowest headcount since at least 1998 as firms cut jobs amid the European debt crisis and tougher regulation.

London Ranked No. 1

London remains the world’s top financial center, according to a survey of 1,887 executives by consulting firm Z/Yen published in September. The city beat New York and Hong Kong on issues such as regulation, tax and lifestyle, while the euro crisis caused Frankfurt and Paris to drop down the list, the survey said.

“There clearly was a danger that had the U.K. acceded to the proposed treaty amendments there would have been a whole raft of untutored, blunt-force regulations that would have endangered the whole industry and also economic recovery,” said Philip Keevil, a former head of investment banking at S.G. Warburg & Co. and now a partner at New York-based advisory firm Compass Advisers LLP. “So Cameron was right to exercise his veto.”

Sarkozy last week cited the lack of unified regulation as a cause of the global financial crisis as Cameron made his case for defending London from European rules. British banks were bailed out by about 1 trillion pounds in capital and guarantees from the government after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. failed in 2008.

Banks Versus Economy

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) required a 45.5 billion- pound rescue and Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) needed more than 20 billion pounds. Cameron’s veto provides further help to the nation’s lenders rather than the economy, according to Andrew Russell, professor of politics at Manchester University.

“This seems to be about the protection of banks rather than the country as a whole,” Russell said. “The question will be what material difference this makes to Britain’s economy rather than the Square Mile,” he said referring to London’s financial district.

While banks, brokers and fund-management firms should be “grateful” to Cameron, they must be wary of the long-term ramifications of his decision, according to Michael Kirkwood, ex-chairman of Citigroup Inc. (C)’s U.K. division.

Poll Backs Cameron

“It’s sad that we got ourselves into that particular state,” said Kirkwood, who now leads Ondra Partners LLP, a financial-advisory firm. “In the longer term, if the U.K. becomes isolationist and Europe pulls together there are risks to the City. Europe is still a huge economic bloc and anything that might result in the Europeans building an option to avoid the City would be unhelpful.”

Cameron’s decision has popular support, according to an opinion poll by Populus for the London-based Times newspaper. Almost 60 percent of those asked backed the veto with 14 percent opposing it.

Niall Ferguson, a professor of economic history at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, agrees. Cameron’s stance is good for London “because as things stand the euro zone is heading for an austerity death spiral,” he said. “If I were a rich German, I would already have put half my money in London. In sterling.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Kevin Crowley in London at kcrowley1@bloomberg.net; Ambereen Choudhury in London at achoudhury@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net;





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Stocks Rise in Europe on Debt Sales as U.S. Futures Gain; Sugar Advances

By Stephen Kirkland and Lynn Thomasson - Dec 13, 2011 8:12 PM GMT+0700

European stocks gained after German investor confidence unexpectedly increased and Spain sold more debt than planned at an auction. U.S. index futures rose before a report that may show American retail sales advanced.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.7 percent at 8:10 a.m. in New York. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures jumped 0.7 percent. The yield on the Spanish two-year note fell 32 basis points to 4.16 percent. The 10-year Italian yield rose 11 basis points, after climbing as much as 19 basis points. Silver, cocoa and Brent crude led commodity gains.

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim, Germany, said its index of investor and analyst expectations increased to minus 53.8 in December from a three-year low of minus 55.2 the previous month. Spain sold 4.94 billion euros ($6.5 billion) of bills, more than the maximum target of 4.25 billion euros. Sales at U.S. retailers probably rose 0.6 percent last month, economists said before a Commerce Department report.

Germany’s confidence data show “the first monthly uptick since the start of the year and it suggests some stabilization in future expectations after the ‘panic’ decline due to the worsening of the European Monetary Union debt crisis,” Annalisa Piazza, a strategist at Newedge Group in London, wrote in a report.

Three shares advanced for every one that declined in the Stoxx 600. Gauges of energy, mining and technology stocks led gains among 19 industry groups, jumping more than 1 percent. Lagardere SCA, France’s biggest publisher, rose 4.7 percent after Deutsche Bank AG upgraded the shares. Whitbread Plc sank 4.6 percent as the U.K. owner of Premier Inn budget lodges and Costa Coffee shops reported revenue growth slowed.

Fed Meeting

The ZEW’s gauge of expectations was forecast to drop to minus 55.8, according to the median of 34 estimates in Bloomberg survey of economists. Its index of current conditions fell to 26.8 from 34.2 in November, compared with a reading of 31 in a Bloomberg survey.

The gain in U.S. futures indicated the S&P 500 will snap yesterday’s 1.5 percent decline. Retail purchases excluding autos rose 0.4 percent after a 0.6 percent advance, according to the median forecast of 75 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The Federal Reserve may keep its target rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent at a policy meeting today, a Bloomberg survey showed.

The yield on Spain’s 10-year note rose less than one basis point, after climbing as much as 11 basis points. The government sold 12-month debt at an average yield of 4.050 percent, compared with 5.022 percent at an auction on Nov. 15, and 18- month bills at 4.226 percent, down from 5.159 percent last month.

ESFS Debt Sale

German bonds declined, driving the 10-year yield up three basis points, with the two-year note yield rising four basis points. The European Financial Stability Facility, the region’s temporary bailout fund, sold 1.97 billion euros of 91-day bills at an average yield of 0.2222 percent, the Bundesbank said. Investors bid for 3.2 times the amount sold, according to data from the central bank.

The cost of insuring sovereign and bank debt fell after the EFSF bill sale. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit-default swaps on 15 governments dropped four basis points to 378 and the gauge of swaps on financial companies lost 8.5 to 317 basis points.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased two basis points to 2.03 percent as the government prepared to auction $21 billion of the securities, the second of four sales of coupon- bearing debt this week. A three-year sale yesterday drew record demand as investors sought a haven from Europe’s debt crisis.

Commodities Gain

The S&P GSCI index of 24 commodities rose 0.6 percent. Crude oil for January delivery gained 0.8 percent to $98.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while gasoline advanced 1.2 percent to $2.5942 a gallon. Copper for delivery in three months added 0.3 percent and aluminum 0.5 percent. Raw sugar for March settlement jumped 1 percent in New York.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.6 percent, heading for the lowest close since Nov. 29. South Korea’s Kospi Index sank 1.9 percent after Morgan Stanley cut its rating for the nation’s equities to “equal-weight” from “overweight.” The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.9 percent to a more than two- year low.

To contact the reporters on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net; Lynn Thomasson in Hong Kong at lthomasson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stuart Wallace at swallace6@bloomberg.net




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Fed May Revise Zero-Rate Vow as Bond-Buying Need Fades

By Joshua Zumbrun - Dec 13, 2011 12:00 PM GMT+0700

The Federal Reserve will probably revise its pledge to keep interest rates close to zero through mid-2013 as the need for large scale asset purchases diminishes, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The Fed will alter the interest rate commitment before June, according to 64 percent of economists surveyed, with 51 percent saying the central bank will abandon the option of a third round of buying bonds, or so-called QE3.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his policy-making colleagues plan to meet today to discuss the outlook for an economy that has strengthened since their November meeting, lowering the jobless rate to 8.6 percent from 9.1 percent. Altering the low- rate commitment would give central bankers the flexibility to adjust monetary policy without resorting to a third round of large-scale bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing.

“The base case is that QE3 probably will not unfold,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We’ve got some momentum here. The data that’s been coming in has been stronger than expected and prior months’ data have been revised up.”

Before the Fed’s November gathering, 69 percent of economists in a Bloomberg News survey said they believed the Fed would begin more purchases, as did 16 of the 21 primary dealers of U.S. government securities in a survey last month.

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to release a statement at around 2:15 p.m. Washington time, following its last scheduled meeting of the year.

Target Rate

The Fed reduced its target interest rate to a range of zero to 0.25 percent in December 2008. In August the FOMC said economic conditions would probably warrant leaving rates near zero through at least mid-2013, replacing an earlier pledge to keep them there for a “considerable period.”

The central bank purchased $2.3 trillion of bonds in two rounds from December 2008 to June 2011. In September it announced it would buy $400 billion of longer-term government securities and sell $400 billion of short-term debt in order to lengthen the average maturity of securities on its balance sheet.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to a record low 1.72 percent on Sept. 22, the day after the central bank announced the maturity-lengthening program known as Operation Twist. The yield was 2.01 percent late yesterday in New York.

A plurality of 44 percent of economists expect the central bank to wait until their Jan. 25-26 meeting to revise their pledge to hold interest rates near zero through mid-2013. Fifty- one percent say the central bank will use that meeting to unveil a “broader overhaul” of their strategy for communicating with the public about policy, including the path of interest rates.

‘Full Scope’

While policy makers in their statement today may hint at such changes, they probably won’t provide “a complete sense of the full scope of the new communications strategy until January,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Inc. in Dallas. Bernanke is scheduled to hold a news conference after the meeting next month.

By holding interest rates near zero, the central bank has helped push down mortgage rates to record lows. The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.99 percent as of Dec. 8, according to a Freddie Mac index. The index touched a record low 3.94 percent on Oct. 6.

“Eventually the economy has to be weaned off of these steroids, and if we just keep throwing more and more stimulus at it, the economy will never find its own legs without risking some sort of inflation flare-up,” said Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York.

Home Purchases

Low interest rates aren’t prompting home purchases by consumers concerned about the outlook for the economy, said Robert I. Toll, chairman of Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder.

“Our customers have the ability to buy,” Toll said. “They are aware of the tremendous affordability of homes and the record-low interest rates. However, a lack of confidence in the direction of the economy is perhaps the biggest impediment to releasing what we believe is significant pent-up demand.”

While tracking household spending, Fed policy makers are also watching the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe for signs that they need to shift policy. In a statement after their Nov. 1-2 meeting, Fed officials said “strains in global financial markets” were creating “significant downside risks.”

Europe is the biggest, disruptive exogenous shock you could have,” said Paul Ballew, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. in Columbus, Ohio.

Dollar Loans

Six central banks led by the Fed on Nov. 30 lowered the cost of emergency dollar funding with a 0.5 percentage-point cut in the premium banks pay to borrow dollars overnight. European banks will now pay about 0.6 percent to borrow dollars from central banks, cheaper than what U.S. banks would pay to borrow from the Fed’s discount window.

Most economists don’t expect the Fed to cut the so-called discount rate that U.S. banks pay on emergency borrowing, with 63 percent calling such a move unlikely, according to the Bloomberg survey. The discount rate was raised to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent in February 2010 as financial markets improved following the financial crisis. Twenty-two percent of economists say the Fed will lower the rate back to 0.5 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Zumbrun in Washington at jzumbrun@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net






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European Stocks Advance on German Confidence, Spanish Debt Sale; BMW Gains

By Julie Cruz - Dec 13, 2011 8:11 PM GMT+0700

European stocks climbed, rebounding from their biggest slide in three weeks, as Spain sold more securities than it had planned at a debt auction and a report showed that investor confidence in Germany improved. U.S. index futures rose, while Asian shares fell.

Lagardere SCA (MMB) climbed 3.2 percent after Deutsche Bank AG recommended the shares of France’s largest publisher. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) and Volkswagen AG (VOW) led gains in carmakers, advancing more than 1.5 percent. Kabel Deutschland AG surged 5.2 percent as Liberty Global Inc. said it has held “constructive dialog” with Germany’s Cartel Office over its proposed purchase of Kabel Baden-Wuerttemberg GmbH.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7 percent to 237.65 at 1:08 p.m. in London, erasing an earlier drop of 0.4 percent. The gauge has still declined 14 percent this year amid concern the euro area’s sovereign-debt debt crisis will derail the global economic recovery. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in March climbed 0.7 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1 percent as Chinese housing sales slumped.

“Demand is obviously not declining as strongly as observers might have thought after the significant drops of orders in the third quarter,” said Ulrike Rondorf, an economist at Commerzbank AG (CBK) in Frankfurt. “This eases fears that the German economy is hit by an uncertainty shock similar to 2008. However, we do not believe that the ZEW will swing onto an upward trend soon.”

German Investor Confidence

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said that its index of German investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months in advance, posted a reading of minus 53.8 in December. That was better than the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Spain sold 4.94 billion euros ($6.5 billion) of 12- and 18- month bills, the Bank of Spain said, compared with the maximum target of 4.25 billion euros the Treasury set for the sale.

A report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington today may show that U.S. retail sales climbed in November as Americans bought more new cars and began their holiday shopping. The 0.6 percent gain in sales would follow a 0.5 percent increase in October, according to the median forecast of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his policy- making colleagues meet today to discuss the outlook for an economy that has strengthened since their November gathering, lowering the jobless rate to 8.6 percent from 9 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee will release a statement at about 2:15 p.m. Washington time.

Dec. 9 Accord

Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday that it will review the ratings of European Union nations because Dec. 9’s summit accord produced few new measures to tackle the debt crisis. The region’s leaders agreed at the meeting in Brussels to channel 200 billion euros through the International Monetary Fund to increase the resources available for future bailouts.

Fitch Ratings, without taking any action, said after the close of European trading yesterday that the summit did little to ease pressure on Europe’s sovereign-bond ratings.

“We’re in a situation that needs more time to be solved,” said Philipp Musil, who helps manage about $11 billion at Semper Constantia Privatbank AG in Vienna. “Politicians have to set up the right framework and the right rules. We need big decisions.”

Lagardere jumped 3.2 percent to 18.87 euros in Paris after Deutsche Bank upgraded the publisher to “buy” from “hold.”

BMW, Volkswagen Advance

BMW rose 1.7 percent to 53.43 euros, while the preferred shares of Volkswagen advanced 1.6 percent to 121.95 euros. Carmakers were among the best performers in the Stoxx 600 today, climbing 1.2 percent.

Kabel Deutschland increased 5.2 percent to 40.34 euros. Earlier, Manager Magazin reported that the German Cartel Office had allowed Liberty Global to buy Kabel Baden-Wuerttemberg. The Cartel Office subsequently denied it had approved the deal.

K+S AG added 3.4 percent to 34.90 euros as Vale SA, the world’s second-biggest mining company by market value, paid 2.08 billion reais ($1.1 billion) to increase its stake in fertilizer producer Vale Fertilizantes SA amid strong growth in agriculture.

Whitbread Plc (WTB) slid 4.4 percent to 1,507 pence for its biggest drop since September. The owner of Premier Inn and Costa Coffee shops reported a slowdown in revenue growth as the U.K. hotel market weakened.

Commerzbank AG slipped 1.6 percent to 1.20 euros after Germany’s Finance Ministry denied a Reuters report that it’s in talks with the country’s second-largest lender to offer state assistance, saying that communication between the government and the bank doesn’t go beyond the “exchange of information.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net





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EU Banks Selling ‘Crown Jewels’ for Cash

By Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, Kevin Crowley and Charles Penty - Dec 13, 2011 6:53 PM GMT+0700

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Patrick Legland, head of research at Societe Generale SA, talks about the outlook for European growth in 2012 and the role of the European Central Bank in the region's debt crisis. He speaks from Paris with Owen Thomas and David Tweed on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)


European banks, under pressure from regulators to bolster capital, are selling some of their fastest-growing businesses to competitors from outside the region -- at the expense of future profit and economic growth.

Spain’s Banco Santander SA (SAN), Belgium’s KBC Groep NV (KBC) and Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG are accelerating plans to exit profitable operations outside their home markets. Santander, which said in October it needs to plug a 5.2 billion-euro ($6.9 billion) capital gap, sold its Colombian unit last week to Chile’s Corpbanca for $1.16 billion. Deutsche Bank is weighing options including a sale of most of its asset-management unit, while KBC may dispose of businesses in Poland.

Such sales risk hurting long-term profit, just as Europe enters recession, investors say. It’s the unintended consequence of the decision by European regulators to make banks increase core capital to 9 percent by June instead of 2019. Unwilling to raise equity because their share prices are too low, lenders are selling profitable assets because they’re struggling to find buyers willing to pay enough for their troubled loans to avoid a loss that would erode capital. Investors say the sales risk leaving banks focused on a stagnant economy and deprive them of economic growth from outside the region.

“These are the most profitable parts of their business,” said Azad Zangana, European economist at London-based Schroders Plc, the 200-year-old British asset manager, citing Spanish and Portuguese banks selling assets in Latin America. “They’re being forced by regulators to sell them off. You begin to become a less profitable organization. Your business model stops working if you’re being forced to lend only to an economy that’s going through a very deep recession.”

Hurting Profitability

The divestitures are likely to hurt banks’ profitability in coming years, analysts say. Shrinkage will cut their return on net asset value by 1.5 percentage points on average, according to a Dec. 6 report by Huw van Steenis, a Morgan Stanley analyst in London. Return on asset value at Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank will shrink by almost 1 percentage point and at Santander by about 0.8 percentage point because of deleveraging, he said. The shrinking economy will help cut returns by an additional 2.5 percentage points, he added.

‘Cheaper Way’

For French banks BNP Paribas SA (BNP), Societe Generale (GLE) SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA), return on equity may fall to between 7 percent and 9 percent in 2013, from 12 percent to 21 percent in 2007, according to Christophe Nijdam, an analyst at AlphaValue in Paris. The ratio may rise to between 10 percent and 12 percent by 2015, assuming the economy recovers by then, he said.

“There’s nothing wrong in theory about selling the crown jewels,” Nijdam said. “It’s always a question of price. European banks will be less profitable -- but less risky.”

For banks, selling assets has become a cheaper way to raise capital than selling new stock after their shares tumbled. The Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) has slumped 33.5 percent this year, leaving bank stocks trading at an average of 63 percent of book value.

“Many of those banks are trading at 50 percent of their book value, so if you can sell an asset at more than that, it’s a cheaper way to raise capital,” said Symon Drake-Brockman, former chief executive officer of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS)’s global banking and markets in the Americas and now managing partner of private-equity firm Pemberton Capital Advisors LLP in London.

‘Adverse Selection’

Banks across Europe have pledged to cut more than 950 billion euros of assets over the next two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About two-thirds of that will come from sales of profitable units and performing loans, said van Steenis. Sales of distressed assets and souring loans will account for just 4 percent, or about 100 billion euros, he said.

“European banks are likely to sell good, performing assets to foreign banks and investors,” he said in an interview. “The question is: When are you getting to the point of adverse selection? When you’re selling the good assets and you’re keeping the more risky assets. There is a risk we’re moving in that direction.”

Buyers, for the most part private-equity and hedge funds, are offering too steep discounts for underperforming assets. For banks, a fire sale would trigger losses they can ill afford at a time when they’re required to boost capital.

“Lenders are selling more liquid assets so they can get a price that avoids additional capital losses,” said Joseph Swanson, co-head of restructuring at Houlihan Lokey in London. “Unfortunately, this strategy can result in lower asset quality and increased earnings volatility.”

Raising Capital

Regulators are forcing European banks to raise capital as the region’s sovereign-debt crisis worsens. The European Banking Authority last week ordered the region’s financial firms to raise 114.7 billion euros of additional capital. The EBA, which co-ordinates the work of the region’s 27 national regulators, told lenders to bolster their core Tier 1 capital ratios to more than 9 percent of risk-weighted assets by the middle of 2012.

Faced with a potential credit crunch, the regulator told banks to raise the money from investors, retained earnings and lower bonuses. Failing that, companies may sell assets, provided the disposals don’t limit overall lending to the European Union’s “real” economy, the EBA said in a Dec. 8 statement.

‘Family Jewels’

“The family jewels are being sold,” Richard Mattione, a portfolio manager at Boston-based Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., wrote in a report this month. “A big chunk of private sector loans can’t be reduced because they involve property that will be inactive for years, perhaps a decade. So, once banks trim their healthiest borrowers, and perhaps reduce their overseas exposures, they quickly run into the need to cut loans to small and medium enterprises, providing another negative impulse to European growth.”

Santander completed the sale of its Brazilian insurance operations to Zurich Financial Services AG for $1.7 billion and sold a $958 million stake in Banco Santander Chile, the South American country’s biggest bank by assets. The Chilean bank’s net profit grew 45 percent (BSAN) between 2008 and 2010 and may increase by another 15 percent this year to about $970 million, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Santander said it will also sell a stake in its Brazilian banking unit.

The Spanish lender’s sale of its U.S. consumer-loan business to a group led by private-equity firm KKR & Co. may cut net profit for Santander’s shareholders by 150 million euros, according to an Oct. 28 estimate by Raoul Leonard, an analyst at RBS in London.

‘Meaningful Negative’

“That may only equate to 2 percent of Santander’s group net attributable profit for 2010, but assuming multiple asset sales may be in the pipeline, this could lead to a meaningful negative drag on” earnings, Leonard wrote.

A spokeswoman for Santander, who asked not to be identified by name in line with company policy, declined to comment.

KBC, the Belgian bank that received a 7 billion-euro government bailout, said in July it would sell Towarzystwo Ubezpieczen i Reasekuracji Warta SA, Poland’s second-largest insurer, and its 80 percent stake in Polish bank Kredyt Bank SA.

The sale of Kredyt Bank, whose net income rose 9.5 percent to 60.8 million zloty ($17.6 million) in the third quarter, will reduce KBC’s return on equity to 17.3 percent from 18.9 percent, according to Benoit Petrarque, an analyst at Kepler Capital Markets in Amsterdam.

‘Two Sides’

If the disposal isn’t big enough to help meet the 9 percent capital target, the bank could sell its Czech unit as well, Petrarque said. The sale of the Czech division would boost core capital to 10.5 percent at the cost of reducing return on equity to about 11 percent, he estimated. KBC said in July it would retain full ownership of Czech banking unit CSOB AS, its most profitable business in Eastern Europe.

“When you sell an asset, there are always two sides of the coin,” Stephane Leunens, a spokesman for KBC, said in a telephone interview. “We focus on de-risking the company while trying to generate sufficient growth in our core markets.”

Philippe Bodereau, head of European credit research at Pacific Investment Management Co. in London, said in a telephone interview that European banks are becoming “slimmer, less global” and “more utility-like.” They will be “better credit investments than equity investments,” he said.

Deutsche Bank, which needs to plug a 3.2 billion-euro capital shortfall by the middle of next year, said last month it is reviewing all options, including a sale, for most of its asset-management unit, a business that CEO Josef Ackermann built up over the last decade to help mitigate the bank’s reliance on investment banking.

Deutsche Bank

The review focuses on “how recent regulatory changes and associated costs” are affecting the business, Deutsche Bank said in the Nov. 22 statement. The disposal would exclude the DWS mutual fund unit in Germany, Europe and Asia, which the bank said was “a core part” of its offering to consumers. The review will be conducted “thoroughly and carefully” said Deutsche Bank spokesman Klaus Winker, declining further comment.

Banco Espirito Santo SA, Portugal’s largest publicly traded lender, sold its stake in Brazil’s Banco Bradesco SA (BBDC4) for about $1 billion and part of its stake in Denmark’s Saxo Bank A/S this year. Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BCP), the country’s second-biggest bank by market value, is considering options for Bank Millennium SA, Poland’s seventh-largest lender, including a sale. The Porto-based lender needs to raise 1.7 billion euros to meet regulatory targets.

Banco Comercial

The Bradesco sale doesn’t affect the operation’s performance in Brazil and the bank’s loan portfolio in that country is growing, Paulo Padrao, a spokesman for Espirito Santo said. Banco Comercial aims to “extract the maximum value” out of operations in Central and Eastern Europe, Erik Burns, a spokesman for the bank, said.

ING Groep NV (INGA), the Netherlands’s biggest financial-services firm, agreed in July to sell most of its Latin American insurance unit for about 2.6 billion euros to a group led by Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana SA, a Colombian investment firm.

“If they raise capital by selling crown jewels, the market will reward them in the short term because they’ll meet the regulator’s timeframe,” said Will James, who runs the 632 million-pound SLI European Equity Income Fund at Edinburgh-based Standard Life Plc. “That begs the longer-term question: How do you grow in an environment where customers are unwilling to borrow. That’s the missing piece from the puzzle. In a low- growth or no-growth environment, banks that have sold good assets will continue to struggle.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in London at achassany@bloomberg.net; Kevin Crowley in London at kcrowley1@bloomberg.net; Charles Penty in Madrid at cpenty@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net; Frank Connelly at fconnelly@bloomberg.net.



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Sony Shopping is ‘Wrong Direction’ in Apple Battle

By Naoko Fujimura - Dec 13, 2011 7:38 AM GMT+0700

Sony Corp. Chief Executive Officer Howard Stringer has announced acquisitions worth $8.4 billion this year to bolster phones and content. That may not be enough to turn around a company heading for a fourth consecutive loss.

Japan’s largest consumer-electronics exporter will pay cash to control its mobile-phone venture with Ericsson AB, partner with Michael Jackson’s estate for music assets from EMI Group, and team up with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) for patent rights. The Ericsson buyout gives Sony full access to the unit’s 6.29 billion euros ($8.3 billion) in revenue, adding to Sony’s $84 billion in sales for the year ended March 31.

Stringer’s efforts to bulk up profitable lines (6758) may not overcome the lack of demand in the U.S. and Europe for Bravia TVs, which forced the Tokyo-based company to slash its sales forecast and predict an eighth straight year of losses in the business. Sony has lost 399.3 billion yen ($5.1 billion) the past three years and predicts adding more this year amid competition with Apple and Samsung Electronics Inc. (005930)

“What Stringer needs to do is to fix the TV business, not pursue acquisitions,” said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees about $600 million in Tokyo at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. “Acquisitions aren’t going to bring back growth.”

Michael Jackson’s Estate

Sony has been hobbled by a stronger yen that reached a postwar high, waning sales, a Japan earthquake that crippled factories and Thailand flooding that cut production.

Sony, worth $100 billion in September 2000, is now valued at $18 billion, compared with Cupertino, California-based Apple at $364 billion and Samsung at $137 billion. Last month, Sony predicted 90 billion yen in losses in the year ending in March, reversing an earlier forecast for a profit of 60 billion yen.

Sony has announced nine acquisitions this year, the same as last year. The spending is more than three times greater than the prior three years combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The biggest deal is the $4.5 billion purchase of patents owned by Nortel Networks Corp. for access to technologies used in mobile phones and tablets. Sony partnered with Apple, Microsoft, Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM), Ericsson and EMC Corp. in that bid, announced in July.

Jackson’s estate, billionaire David Geffen, Mubadala Development Co. PJSC and Blackstone Group joined Sony in agreeing to buy EMI Music Publishing from Citigroup Inc. for $2.2 billion.

Hendrix, Spider-Man

“Acquisition is the wrong direction for Sony,” said Edwin Merner, president of Atlantis Investment Research Corp. in Tokyo, which manages $3 billion. “Sony must concentrate only on a few electronic products, maybe even get out of the manufacturing business.”

Sony Music, featuring Jackson, Jimi Hendrix and Kelly Clarkson, was the second-biggest contributor of operating income at Sony after financial services during the fiscal year that ended in March. Sony Pictures, producer of “The Smurfs,” “The Social Network” and “Spider-Man,” was the third-biggest.

In October, the maker of Xperia phones agreed to spend $1.5 billion in cash to purchase Ericsson’s 50 percent stake in their mobile-phone venture and integrate the smartphone business with its gaming and tablet offerings.

Other deals this year include the $118 million purchase of a Seiko Epson Corp. (6724) subsidiary in China and a $63 million deal with Toshiba, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Stringer Strategy

Sony had $16.9 billion of cash and equivalents at the end of September, according to Bloomberg data.

“We will consider mergers and acquisitions in any area and business that is necessary for growth so as to strengthen our existing operations and technology and create a new business,” Mami Imada, a Sony spokeswoman, said by phone.

Suwon, South Korea-based Samsung, with $18.4 billion of cash and equivalents on Sept. 30, made 16 acquisitions this year, totaling $831 million. The only acquisition by Apple, which had $81.6 billion on Sept. 24, was partnering with Sony in the Nortel bid.

“Stringer is buying time by purchasing companies with appreciating technology,” said Naoki Fujiwara, who helps oversee $6 billion at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The company is spending its cash to strengthen its technology and service contents.”

Sony’s TV business has lost 480 billion yen in the past seven years and is forecast to lose another 175 billion yen in the year ending in March. Sony is the world’s No. 3 TV maker, trailing Samsung and LG Electronics Inc. (066570), based in Seoul.

‘TV is Key’

The maker of Bravia TVs lowered its annual sales projection to 20 million sets from 22 million and said it was taking a 50 billion-yen charge for streamlining the TV operation.

The company is countering with plans to write down the value of some facilities, reduce the number of models and cut expenses at its marketing units.

“I have unflagging resolve” to turn the TV business around, Executive Deputy President Kazuo Hirai said Nov. 2. Sony’s management “feels a sense of crisis” about the unit’s losses, he said.

TV makers also face what Credit Suisse called a “generational culture shift surrounding video consumption.” Teens live in an Internet-based video culture that doesn’t depend on cable and satellite broadcasts, and they are satisfied with “small-screen experiences” and lower picture quality, the analysts led by New York-based Stefan Anninger said in the Nov. 28 report.

‘Apple Make Movie?’

Yet Keita Wakabayashi, an analyst at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo, said TVs are “the business that Sony can’t exit.”

“Television is the key,” said Wakabayashi, who doesn’t rate Sony. “It is at the center of the strategy to integrate hardware and software.”

That integration will help Sony take on rivals, including Apple, Stringer said last month at Berlin’s annual consumer electronics fair. He can draw on music from 13 U.S. labels and movies from Sony Pictures Classics, Columbia Pictures and TriStar Pictures.

“Apple makes an iPad, but does it make a movie?” he said. “We will prove that it’s not who makes the tablet first who counts, but who makes it better.”

Sony sells music and movies through Apple’s iTunes store, keeping 70 percent of the sales while Apple gets the remaining 30 percent. It also is expanding its online-music business by forging a partnership with Google Inc.

Sony needs to do more to “blend” those assets with its hardware in order to compete with its bigger rivals, Akino said.

“The company’s culture is to polish the technology,” he said. “Stringer knows what to focus on. The company doesn’t have the speed to catch up with Apple and Samsung.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Naoko Fujimura in Tokyo at nfujimura@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net




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Amazon Plans Update for Kindle Fire Screen

By Danielle Kucera - Dec 13, 2011 5:09 AM GMT+0700

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), the largest Internet retailer, said it will release a software update for the Kindle Fire tablet to improve performance, make touch navigation easier and let users choose what items are displayed.

The update will be available in less than two weeks, Seattle-based Amazon said in an e-mailed statement.

Users have complained on Amazon’s website that the screen is difficult to navigate, scrolling is “jittery,” and there is no way to lock the device to keep others from using it. Amazon unveiled the Kindle Fire, which has a 7-inch display and sells for less than half the price of Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s least-expensive iPad, on Sept. 28 in a bid to erode Apple’s dominance.

“As with all of our products, we continue to make them better for customers with regular software updates,” Kinley Pearsall, a spokeswoman for Amazon, said in the statement.

While some Kindle Fire users have cited problems, 2,326 customers on Amazon’s website have given the tablet the highest product rating of five stars -- a larger number of buyers than all those who have given it one, two or three stars combined. The device has an average rating of four stars.

Amazon fell 1.8 percent to $189.52 at the close in New York. The shares have gained 5.3 percent this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Danielle Kucera in San Francisco at dkucera6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net





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U.S. Retail Sales Probably Rose in November

By Alex Kowalski - Dec 13, 2011 12:00 PM GMT+0700

Retail sales probably climbed in November as Americans bought more new cars and began their holiday shopping, helping to bolster the expansion heading into 2012, economists said before a report today.

The 0.6 percent gain in sales would follow a 0.5 percent October increase, according to the median forecast of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Purchases excluding autos rose 0.4 percent after a 0.6 percent advance, the survey showed.

A drop in joblessness and rebound in stock prices may help households maintain spending after they set a record at the start of the holiday shopping season, known as Black Friday. The resiliency of the consumer gives Federal Reserve policy makers meeting today less reason to inject more stimulus into the economy.

“It looks like consumers have been slowly coming out of hibernation,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co. in New York. “The Fed should be encouraged the economy is doing a little better, but it’s still fragile, and unemployment is still unacceptably high.”

The Commerce Department’s sales figures are due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Economists’ estimates ranged from gains of 0.2 percent to 1.1 percent.

Spending during the Thanksgiving weekend jumped 9.1 percent per customer from a year earlier to $398.62, according to the National Retail Federation. Sales totaled a record $52.4 billion. For all of November, same-store sales for the more than 20 companies tracked by researcher Retail Metrics Inc. rose a combined 3.2 percent.

“We were positive throughout the month going into Thanksgiving and it only got better from there,” Timothy Johnson, senior vice president of finance at retailer Big Lots Inc. (BIG), said during a Dec. 2 earnings call. “We feel about as good as we can with the positive performance to begin, but also the acceleration, meaningful acceleration, we saw.”

The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing Index has recovered from a plunge in stock values during October faster than S&P 500 Index. It rose 0.9 percent from Oct. 31 through last week, while the broader market gained 0.2 percent.

An improving labor market may help sustain the gains in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Payrolls climbed by 120,000 workers in November, and the jobless rate fell to 8.6 percent, the lowest since March 2009, from 9 percent, Labor Department figures showed Dec. 2.

Confidence among consumers has also brightened. The Conference Board’s index surged last month by the most since April 2003. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment rose in December to a six-month high.

Car and light truck sales also advanced in November, climbing to a 13.6 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate, the best month since August 2009, according to researcher Autodata Corp.

Retail purchases excluding automobiles and service stations may have increased 0.4 percent last month after rising 0.7 percent in October, economists said.

With consumer spending picking up, inflation moderating and the labor market starting to thaw, the central bank may refrain from adopting new measures to bolster expansion. The Federal Open Market Committee will issue a statement at 2:15 p.m. with any updated outlook on the economy.

Also today, a report from the Commerce Department at 10 a.m. may show inventories at U.S. businesses increased 0.8 percent in October after no change a month earlier, according to the Bloomberg survey median.

                Bloomberg Survey

====================================================
Retail Retail Business
Sales ex-autos Inv.
MOM% MOM% MOM%
====================================================

Date of Release 12/13 12/13 12/13
Observation Period Nov. Nov. Oct.
----------------------------------------------------
Median 0.6% 0.4% 0.8%
Average 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
High Forecast 1.1% 0.8% 1.2%
Low Forecast 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Number of Participants 83 75 47
Previous 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------
4CAST 0.6% 0.4% ---
ABN Amro 0.5% --- ---
Action Economics 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
Aletti Gestielle 0.5% 0.4% ---
Ameriprise Financial 0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
Banca Aletti 0.6% 0.5% ---
Banesto 0.6% --- 0.4%
Bantleon Bank AG 0.7% 0.5% ---
Barclays Capital 0.5% 0.2% 1.0%
Bayerische Landesbank 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
BBVA 0.5% 0.4% 1.0%
BMO Capital Markets 0.7% 0.4% 0.5%
BNP Paribas 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%
BofA Merrill Lynch 0.5% 0.3% ---
Briefing.com 0.8% 0.6% 0.9%
Capital Economics 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
CIBC World Markets 0.5% 0.5% ---
Citi 0.3% 0.1% 1.0%
ClearView Economics 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%
Comerica 0.9% 0.6% 0.4%
Credit Suisse 0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
Daiwa Securities America 0.5% 0.4% 1.0%
Danske Bank 0.5% 0.4% ---
DekaBank 0.7% 0.5% 0.9%
Desjardins Group 0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
Deutsche Bank Securities 0.4% 0.4% 0.8%
Deutsche Postbank AG 0.7% 0.8% ---
DZ Bank 0.7% 0.6% ---
Exane 0.7% 0.5% ---
Fact & Opinion Economics 0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
First Trust Advisors 0.2% 0.3% 0.9%
FTN Financial 0.8% 0.6% ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 0.5% 0.1% ---
Helaba 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
High Frequency Economics 0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
HSBC Markets 0.3% 0.3% ---
Hugh Johnson Advisors 0.8% 0.6% 0.1%
IDEAglobal 0.6% 0.4% 0.5%
IHS Global Insight 0.5% 0.4% ---
Informa Global Markets 0.5% 0.2% 0.4%
ING Financial Markets 0.8% 0.6% 0.4%
Insight Economics 0.8% 0.6% 0.9%
Intesa-SanPaulo 0.7% 0.5% ---
J.P. Morgan Chase 0.6% 0.3% 0.9%
Janney Montgomery Scott 0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
Jefferies & Co. 1.1% 0.8% 0.8%
Landesbank Berlin 0.4% 0.2% 1.0%
Landesbank BW 0.4% --- ---
Market Securities 0.5% --- ---
MET Capital Advisors 0.6% --- ---
Moody’s Analytics 0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
Morgan Keegan & Co. 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%
Morgan Stanley & Co. 0.2% 0.2% 0.9%
National Bank Financial 0.6% 0.5% ---
Natixis 0.6% 0.4% ---
Newedge 0.7% 0.5% ---
Nomura Securities 0.4% 0.3% ---
Nord/LB 0.5% 0.5% ---
OSK Group/DMG 0.5% 0.2% ---
O’Sullivan 0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
Parthenon Group 0.8% 0.5% 0.4%
Pierpont Securities 0.3% 0.1% ---
PineBridge Investments 0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
PNC Bank 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
Prestige Economics 0.5% 0.4% ---
Raiffeisenbank International 0.6% 0.5% ---
Raymond James 0.9% 0.6% 0.9%
RBC Capital Markets 0.7% 0.5% ---
RBS Securities 0.6% 0.4% ---
Scotia Capital 0.7% 0.5% ---
Societe Generale 0.5% 0.2% 1.2%
Standard Chartered 0.4% 0.3% ---
State Street Global Markets 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
Stone & McCarthy Research 0.5% 0.1% 1.0%
TD Securities 0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
UBS 0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
UniCredit Research 0.6% --- ---
Union Investment 0.5% --- ---
University of Maryland 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%
Wells Fargo & Co. 0.4% 0.5% 0.7%
WestLB AG 0.6% 0.5% ---
Westpac Banking Co. 0.5% --- ---
Wrightson ICAP 0.3% 0.1% 1.0%
====================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net






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