Economic Calendar

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Greek Leaders Appeal for Support as U.S. Presses for EU Action

By Maria Petrakis and Tony Czuczka - Sep 27, 2011 5:12 PM GMT+0700

Greek leaders appealed for support at home and abroad to avert default before key legislative votes as the U.S. criticized European leaders for moving too slowly to stem the debt crisis.

Prime Minister George Papandreou traveled to Berlin two days before lawmakers there were to ratify an overhaul of the euro rescue fund, pledging success in a struggle to restore budget balance. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos promised “superhuman” efforts hours before a vote in Athens on an unpopular property tax needed to avoid default.

President Barack Obama underscored the urgency late yesterday when he said European governments are “trying to take responsible actions, but those actions haven’t been quite as quick as they need to be.” His treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, said Europe has “not very much time” to act.

Concerns that Europe’s debt crisis may plunge the global economy into recession dominated weekend talks of policy makers, investors and bankers in Washington, where the International Monetary Fund and World Bank held their annual meetings. Geithner called on euro-area leaders to beef up their 440 billion-euro ($594 billion) bailout fund, warning that failure threatened “cascading default, bank runs and catastrophic risk.”

European stocks rallied for a third straight day as investors bet as policy makers will heed the warnings to step up their efforts. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed as much as 2.6 percent today.

Papandreou’s Majority

With 154 votes in the 300-seat chamber, Papandreou needs to rally his Pasok socialist lawmakers as he did in June to push through budget cuts and asset sales. Three months after that vote, which cost Papandreou two of his deputies, a deepening slump forced him to impose additional cuts and the real-estate levy affecting owners of 5 million homes and stores. The debate is scheduled to start at 6 p.m.

“The parliamentary votes on the required measures will be close,” said Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst in London at Eurasia Group. “Some Pasok deputies could resign ahead of the crucial voting sessions, but the government is expected to secure the parliamentary approval for the necessary laws and the release of the 8 billion-euro loan.”

Greece faces a “moment of truth” and has to fully implement its savings plans in order to qualify for the next installment of international aid, European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told reporters in Brussels yesterday.

Vote Delayed

He said that euro-area ministers are unlikely to approve the payment at their Oct. 3 meeting as originally planned. Greece has said it needs the money next month. Venizelos said today he expects the decision to be made and the money received “in time.”

Papandreou, who will dine with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, said Greece can overcome the debt crisis and bolster all Europe with the help of stronger leadership from policy makers.

Greece will live up to all its commitments and deserves “respect” for its efforts thus far, Papandreou said in a speech to the German industry federation. He noted that from a “huge” primary budget deficit in 2009, Greece will probably see a primary surplus next year.

Greeks ask whether this is a Sisyphean task or whether the country can surmount the crisis, Papandreou said. “My answer is yes we can,” he said. “Greece has the potential, Europe has the potential,” and can achieve it through global cooperation. “We are not a poor country, we’re a country that has been governed badly.”

Greek Cuts

Venizelos has announced an additional 20 percent wage cut, on top of 15 percent for the civil service and 25 percent in the wider public sector. Pensions are being reduced 4 percent on average, in addition to previous cuts of 10 percent. A lowering of the tax-free threshold to 5,000 euros will mean higher taxes for all Greeks.

The two most contentious issues are a property tax to be levied via electricity bills, which will provide an annual yield of 1.1 percent of gross domestic product, and plans to put 30,000 public servants into a “reserve” system on reduced pay. The latter measure may not need renewed parliamentary approval as it was part of measures passed in June.

More than 74 percent of 1,002 Greeks polled by Rass for To Paron newspaper opposed the property tax. The poll also showed that 59 percent believed Papandreou’s government won’t be able to avert a default. The survey had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error. Papandreou trails the opposition party in all polls.

Unions have already called general strikes for Oct. 5 and Oct. 19, while public transit companies including the subway in the Greek capital have held strikes over the past few days to oppose the measures.

“Implementation of the measures is the biggest challenge for the government as the trade unions and parts of the civil service will mount significant resistance, raising the risk of inertia and inaction,” said Piccoli.

To contact the reporter on this story: Maria Petrakis in Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net; Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net




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Geithner Tells Europe to ‘Get On With It’ After Global Chiding Over Crisis

By Ian Katz - Sep 27, 2011 10:24 AM GMT+0700

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner predicted that European governments will step up their response to their region’s debt crisis after a chiding from counterparts around the world.

“They heard from everybody around the world” in Washington meetings last week, Geithner said on ABC’s “World News With Diane Sawyer” program. Europe’s crisis is “starting to hurt growth everywhere, in countries as far away as China, Brazil and India, Korea. And they heard the same message from us they heard from everybody else, which is it’s time to move.”

Geithner’s remarks maintain pressure on Europe ahead of finance minister and central bank gatherings next week and a decision on whether to disburse a loan Greece may need to avoid default. Speculation that rescue efforts will be strengthened spurred a rally in stocks even after Dutch and Finnish officials said they won’t boost commitments to a euro-area bailout fund.

Europe has “some time, but not very much time,” Geithner said in the interview late yesterday. “If you listen carefully to what they said this weekend, not just to us in private, but what they said publicly, they’re foreshadowing now the escalation that’s going to come. And we’d like them to get on with it.”


The MSCI Asia Pacific index of stocks gained 2.9 percent as of 11:48 a.m. Tokyo time, after national benchmark indexes rallied yesterday in all 18 western European markets except Greece and Norway. Futures contracts on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.3 percent. The euro headed for a third session of gains, up 0.2 percent at $1.3554.

Europe’s Pledge

Euro-region finance chiefs committed at a gathering of the Group of 20 in Washington Sept. 22 to boost the flexibility of their rescue fund and “maximize its impact” by the time of the next G-20 conclave. Euro-area finance ministers meet Oct. 3. European Central Bank officials have indicated they will consider expanding liquidity provisions when they meet Oct. 6.

Geithner set the tone at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank by warning that failure to combat the Greek-led turmoil threatened “cascading default, bank runs and catastrophic risk.” That gathering followed the G-20 session.

People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at the talks that the euro-area crisis “needs to be resolved promptly.” Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi said many G-20 members urged Europeans to implement a July plan to expand powers of the European Financial Stability Facility.

Japan Aid

Azumi told reporters in Tokyo today that Japan may weigh expanding its support to Europe through a regional bond fund if nations implement their pledged fiscal measures.

European leaders “recognized the need to escalate,” Geithner said in the ABC interview. “They’re going to have to put a much more powerful financial framework behind this. I really believe that you’re going to see them do that, but we wanted to make sure they do it as quickly as they can and as definitively as they can.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Sept. 25 that euro- region leaders must erect a firewall around Greece to avert a cascade of market attacks on other European states and said expanding the powers of the region’s rescue fund, known as the EFSF, was necessary to avoid contagion.

The challenge of debt sustainability in Europe is in part a consequence of the 1999 inception of the euro as a single currency, the U.S. Treasury chief signaled.

Euro’s Legacy

European governments took advantage of the lower interest rates “that came with monetary union, and they borrowed a lot. And they spent too much. And the governments got very big. Benefits got very generous,” he said.

Turning to the U.S., Geithner said “there’s a very good chance” Congress will approve President Barack Obama’s $447 billion jobs proposal. The plan, incorporating payroll-tax cuts and a $105 billion infrastructure program, is designed to help pull down the nation’s 9.1 percent unemployment rate.

Geithner was in Louisville, Kentucky, yesterday to meet with leaders from businesses including Ford Motor Co. (F) to discuss the jobs proposal and to tour operations of package-delivery company United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)

The European crisis “hurts us not just because it means that growth around the world will be slower and we’ll export less, but it hurts people very directly and very quickly when stock prices fall and the value of their pensions fall,” Geithner said on ABC. “It makes people more tentative. And that’s why it’s so important to us that they move.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Ian Katz in Washington at ikatz2@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net



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European Stocks Rally for Third Day; U.S. Index Futures Advance

By Corinne Gretler - Sep 27, 2011 5:45 PM GMT+0700

European stocks climbed for a third straight day as policy makers increased efforts to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. Asian shares and U.S. index futures advanced.

BNP Paribas (BNP) SA and Societe Generale SA led a rally in banks, soaring at least 8 percent. MAN SE (MAN) rose the most in 10 months as European Union regulators cleared Volkswagen AG (VOW)’s takeover of the truckmaker. Novartis AG (NOVN), Europe’s second-biggest drugmaker by sales, rose 1.7 percent after its Seebri treatment showed positive results in two studies.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2.6 percent to 226.08 at 11:43 a.m. in London. The gauge has surged 5.2 percent over the past three trading days after falling to a two-year low on Sept. 22. That’s the biggest three-day gain this month.

“The markets are hoping that international leaders and politicians will act together and do what is needed to avoid a disaster,” said Lars Knudsen, who manages about $110 million at LGT Capital Management AG in Pfaeffikon, Switzerland. “Politicians are starting to feel pressure to act on the crisis. It is important that the European leaders act now.”

The Stoxx 600 fell 26 percent from this year’s peak in February through Sept. 22 as European and U.S. economic reports trailed forecasts, adding to concern that the global recovery is at risk. The decline left the measure trading at 9 times estimated earnings, the cheapest since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Asian, U.S. Shares

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied 4 percent today, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures increased 1.2 percent.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner predicted that European governments will step up their response to their region’s debt crisis after a chiding from counterparts around the world.

“They heard from everybody around the world” in Washington meetings last week, Geithner said on ABC’s “World News With Diane Sawyer” program. Europe’s crisis is “starting to hurt growth everywhere, in countries as far away as China, Brazil and India, Korea. And they heard the same message from us they heard from everybody else, which is it’s time to move.”

Financial markets are looking for stronger leadership from policy makers to help Greece overcome the current debt crisis, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said in a speech to a German industry federation event in Berlin.Papandreou tests the strength of his parliamentary majority today as lawmakers vote on a property tax that is key to persuading the EU and International Monetary Fund to release an aid installment and avert default.

Greek Aid

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said he expects euro-area authorities to approve an aid payment this month and that it will be received “in time.” He spoke to reporters in Athens today.

Traders are “suddenly becoming increasingly confident that European leaders can now reach an agreement to successfully contain the debt crisis,” said Chris Weston, an institutional trader at IG Markets in Melbourne. “Investors must hold their nerve and at the same time central banks and finance ministers need to remain ‘on message’ as any suggestions that the rescue plans may go away will likely be enough to see markets take fright once again.”

In the U.S., a report at 9 a.m. New York time may show home prices declined in July from a year earlier. The S&P/Case- Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4.4 percent from July 2010, the 10th consecutive year-to-year drop, according to the median forecast of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show consumer confidence held in September near a two-year low.

Banks Climb

BNP Paribas and Societe Generale (GLE), France’s largest banks, pushed a gauge of European lenders higher, soaring 8.9 percent to 28.66 euros and 8 percent to 18.95 euros, respectively. Credit Agricole SA (ACA) jumped 6.9 percent to 4.91 euros.

Austria’s Erste Group Bank AG (EBS) surged 84 percent to 20.84 euros while Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Germany’s biggest lender, increased 7.8 percent to 27.26 euros.

Allianz SE (ALV) and Axa SA (CS), Europe’s biggest insurers, climbed 7.3 percent to 69.73 euros and 8 percent to 9.70 euros, respectively. A gauge of insurance companies in the Stoxx 600 is heading for the biggest two-day gain since March 2009.

MAN rose 8.2 percent to 63.87 euros, the biggest increase since Nov. 15. Volkswagen’s takeover obtained antitrust approval without the need for asset sales or other remedies, the European Commission said late yesterday. The Wolfsburg, Germany-based carmaker will own 55.9 percent of MAN’s voting rights after the deal closes. Volkswagen preferred shares gained 3.7 percent to 105.35 euros.

Novartis Study

Novartis added 1.7 percent to 49.94 Swiss francs after the company’s Seebri drug improved lung function in patients with smoker’s cough and helped them exercise for longer, according to two studies that the Swiss drugmaker is using to apply for regulatory approval.

Novartis also received approval in Japan for Gilenya, a multiple sclerosis treatment, and Ilaris for cryopyrin- associated periodic syndrome, an auto-inflammatory disease.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-largest mining company, rose 4.8 percent to 3,108 pence as copper gained for the first day in eight in London trading.

Antofagasta Plc (ANTO), the copper producer controlled by Chile’s Luksic family, climbed 7.9 percent to 1,025 pence and Kenmare Resources Plc (KMR) jumped 5.5 percent to 45.80 euro cents. Vedanta Resources Plc (VED) rallied 10 percent to 1,180 pence, the biggest gain since May 2010.

Logica Plc (LOG), the Anglo-Dutch computer services provider, gained 6.8 percent to 79.20 pence as Les Echos reported that Thales SA, Europe’s largest defense-electronics producer, plans to sell its Business Solutions unit, citing unidentified people. The newspaper named Logica as one of the possible buyers.

Alstom SA (ALO), the third-largest maker of power equipment, increased 6.6 percent to 25.46 euros as Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Uglow, who has an “overweight” rating for the shares, said the stock is “very attractive.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Corinne Gretler in Zurich at cgretler1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net




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Global Takeover Rebound Falters on Europe

By Zachary R. Mider, Jacqueline Simmons and Jeffrey McCracken - Sep 27, 2011 11:01 AM GMT+0700

The global rebound in mergers and acquisitions stumbled in the third quarter as takeovers by U.S. and Asian acquirers failed to compensate for a 43 percent decline in purchases by European companies.

Dealmaking dropped 22 percent to $504 billion from the prior three-month period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as European suitors retreated. St. Louis-based Express Scripts Inc.’s $29.1 billion bid for Medco Health Solutions Inc. and Tokyo-based Nippon Steel Corp.’s $9.5 billion offer for Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd. blunted the drop.

U.S. and Asian companies are putting stockpiles of cash to work as a dimming economic outlook makes it more difficult for them to expand on their own. While their counterparts in Europe are also seeking growth, the deepening debt crisis there discouraged some from pursuing deals.

“The broader economic climate in Europe is bringing uncertainty to decision-making,” said Hernan Cristerna, head of M&A for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the top adviser on deals this year. “New mandates have been coming through, but we are realistic that it might be difficult to execute some of them in the current environment.”

The rout in Europe imperils what is on track to be the second year of a global recovery in dealmaking. Companies have struck $1.78 trillion of deals this year, 18 percent more than the $1.51 trillion they put together at the same point in 2010.

U.S. Versus Europe

For every $2 U.S. companies spent on acquisitions in the third quarter, European ones spent less than $1. For most of the past decade, U.S. and Europe disbursed about the same amount.

U.S. deals included two big bets by technology giants: Google Inc.’s $12.5 billion offer for Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co.’s proposed $10.3 billion acquisition of U.K. software maker Autonomy Corp. Melbourne’s BHP Billiton Ltd. bought Houston-based Petrohawk Energy Corp. for about $12 billion, its largest acquisition.

“We are continuing to see healthy activity in both the tech and in natural resources sectors, but the macro environment is such that CEOs are being prudent,” said Yoel Zaoui, global co-head of M&A at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)

Goldman Sachs is second to JPMorgan in advising on transactions this year. Morgan Stanley (MS) and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) round out the top four. M&A advisers and private-equity executives will gather today to discuss the outlook for dealmaking at the Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit in New York.

Deal volume sank alongside the outlook for the global economy. Spanish and Italian government bond yields increased to euro-era records during the quarter as Greece attempted to avoid default. In the U.S., credit concerns increased as Standard & Poor’s lowered the nation’s rating, saying lawmakers haven’t done enough to curb record budget deficits.

Stretched Timelines

“Timelines are being stretched, and whether these deals ultimately get done remains an open question,” said Giuseppe Monarchi, head of M&A for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Credit Suisse in London.

PPR, the French owner of luxury brands such as Gucci, shelved plans this month to sell its Redcats online retail unit, partly because of the financing squeeze. The Paris-based company initially attracted buyout firms such as TPG Capital and CVC Capital Partners Ltd., people with knowledge of the matter said in July.

Some companies are opting for spinoffs or breakups rather than takeovers. Kraft Foods Inc., whose brands include Oreo cookies and Cadbury chocolate, last month revealed plans to spin off its North American grocery business. Tyco International Ltd., the security-system maker that fielded advances from Schneider Electric SA this year, announced plans for its own breakup this month.

Spinoff Option

“For now, we’ll continue to see strategic reorganizations, such as spinoffs and divestitures, and some sizable acquisitions by companies with substantial cash reserves,” said Henrik Aslaksen, global head of M&A for Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) in London. The top 1,000 non-financial companies worldwide are sitting on about $3.3 trillion in cash and equivalents, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Siemens AG Chief Executive Officer Peter Loescher said Sept. 24 that the German maker of trains, scanners and power plants is seeking acquisitions and that prices are becoming “more attractive by the day.” Nestle SA, which had more than $3 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of June, said in August that it opted not to buy back more shares, prompting speculation it’s saving for takeovers.

Asian Deals

Acquirers in the Asia-Pacific region kept spending in the third quarter, with volume climbing about 4 percent to $158 billion from the previous period, including Nippon Steel’s deal to create the world’s second-largest steelmaker.

“Given the undiminished appetite of Asian corporates for M&A opportunities globally, combined with their strong overall financial positioning, we don’t expect any slowdown in M&A activity to be long drawn out,” said Colin Banfield, Asia- Pacific head of M&A at Citigroup Inc. (C)

Still, much like in Europe, market turmoil has put off or quashed some large transactions clients had contemplated, said Stephen Gore, head of M&A for Asia at UBS AG. (UBSN)

“Trying to take a decision to execute a large, transformational transaction when there is a high level of global uncertainty about macro-economic conditions is difficult,” he said.

IMF Forecast

The International Monetary Fund reduced its forecast for global growth Sept. 20 and said Europe and the U.S. risk re- entering recession if they fail to solve their financial problems. The world economy probably will expand 4 percent this year and next, the IMF said, compared with previous projections of 4.3 percent and 4.5 percent.

Slowing economic growth may actually push some companies to seek acquisitions, to realize cost savings or enter new markets, said Patrick Ramsey, co-head of Americas mergers at Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

“The challenge of organic growth has only gotten harder as the slope of economic recovery has become shallower,” he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Zachary Mider in New York at zmider1@bloomberg.net; Jacqueline Simmons in Paris at jackiem@bloomberg.net; Jeffrey McCracken in New York at jmccracken3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jacqueline Simmons at jackiem@bloomberg.net; Jennifer Sondag at jsondag@bloomberg.net




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Stocks, Metals Gain on European Crisis Outlook

By Stephen Kirkland and Shiyin Chen - Sep 27, 2011 6:53 PM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Stocks, Metals Gain on European Crisis Outlook

Copper rose 2.7 percent and silver futures advanced 9.8 percent. Photographer: Chris Rank/Bloomberg

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Lothar Mentel, chief investment officer at Octopus Investments Ltd., talks about investment strategy for commodities and equities. He speaks with Owen Thomas on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move." (Source: Bloomberg)

Traders gesture as they work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange in London. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg


Stocks gained for a third day and commodities rallied, with copper snapping a seven-day slump, on optimism European leaders will solve the region’s debt crisis. Treasuries and bunds declined.

The MSCI All-Country World Index added 2.1 percent, led by banks, at 7:45 a.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 3.3 percent as gauges in France and Germany climbed at least 4.4 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 1.7 percent. Copper jumped 3.9 percent and silver futures surged 11 percent. The 30-year Treasury yield increased 11 basis points, with the 10-year German yield gaining 13 basis points. Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds traded higher after the nations sold debt. The euro strengthened 0.5 percent to $1.3599.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner predicted that European governments will use more force to resolve the region’s crisis after they heard the concerns of global finance officials during meetings in Washington last weekend. Opting for a government default in the euro region would be “voting for suicide,” European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in an interview with the Australian Financial Review published today.

European leaders “finally get it,” Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed El-Erian said in a radio interview with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” Germany still faces major decisions on the nature of the European Union, and political challenges shouldn’t be underestimated, El-Erian said.

BNP Paribas

The Stoxx 600 is heading for the biggest three-day gain this month after sliding to a two-year low on Sept. 22. Allianz SE and Axa SA, Europe’s biggest insurers, climbed at least 9 percent. BNP Paribas SA and Deutsche Bank AG, the largest banks in France and Germany, rallied 9.7 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

The cost for European banks to convert euro payments into dollars, measured by the one-year cross-currency basis swap, declined to 68 basis points less than the euro interbank offered rate, from 70.5 basis points yesterday. The cost was 75 basis points under Euribor on Sept. 22, when the swap was the most expensive since December 2008.

“There has been no concrete alteration in the structure of the euro zone since the end of last week but the market has been willing to clutch at the idea that politicians at least recognize there is an urgent requirement for action,” Jane Foley, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Rabobank International in London, said in a report today.

Default Risk

The cost of insuring against a default on European bank bonds fell, with the Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit- default swaps dropping 16 basis points to 260, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The gain in S&P 500 futures indicated the U.S. gauge will climb for a third day. Data today may show the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities fell 4.4 percent from July 2010, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A separate release may show consumer confidence climbed this month from the lowest in more than two years.

Silver futures rose after falling 26 percent the past three days, and copper rebounded from a 17 percent slide in seven days. Oil advanced 2.5 percent to $82.21 a barrel in New York.

Emerging Markets

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 4.3 percent, set for the steepest rally since May 2010, after closing yesterday at a two-year low. South Korea’s Kospi Index (KOSPI) jumped 5 percent, the most since January 2009. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite index added 5 percent. Benchmark indexes gained more than 3 percent in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The rand appreciated 2.6 percent against the dollar as commodity prices surged.

Israel’s TA-25 Index rose 1.2 percent after the central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate for the first time in 2 1/2 years yesterday after the market closed.

The two-year Treasury note yield rose as high as 0.2432 percent, the highest since Aug. 9, before the government sells $35 billion of the notes today.

The yield on the 10-year Spanish bond declined eight basis points. The government sold 3.22 billion euros ($4.3 billion) of three- and six-month bills, compared with the Treasury’s maximum target of 3.5 billion euros. The yield on the three-month debt was 1.692 percent, compared with an average of 1.357 percent when similar securities were last auctioned on Aug. 23. The six- month bills yielded 2.665 percent, compared with 2.187 percent last month.

Italy’s 10-year bond yield slid five basis points. The nation auctioned 8 billion euros of 182-day bills to yield 3.071 percent, up from 2.14 percent at the last auction of similar- maturity debt on Aug. 26. The Rome-based Treasury also sold 3 billion euros of 76-day bills to yield 1.808 percent. The 3.5 billion euros of 2013 bonds yielded 4.511 percent.

The 17-nation European currency appreciated 0.6 percent against the yen. The New Zealand dollar advanced 0.9 percent against the U.S. currency, with the Australian currency rising 0.8 percent. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, fell 0.9 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net; Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Justin Carrigan at jcarrigan@bloomberg.net




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Fukushima Desolation Worst Since Nagasaki as Population Flees From Fallout

By Yuriy Humber, Yuji Okada and Stuart Biggs - Sep 27, 2011 3:30 PM GMT+0700
eyond the police roadblocks that mark the no-go zone around Japan’s wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant, six-foot tall weeds invade rice paddies and vines gone wild strangle road signs along empty streets.

Takako Harada, 80, returned to an evacuated area of Iitate village to retrieve her car. Beside her house is an empty cattle pen, the 100 cows slaughtered on government order after radiation from the March 11 atomic disaster saturated the area, forcing 160,000 people to move away and leaving some places uninhabitable for two decades or more.

“Older folks want to return, but the young worry about radiation,” said Harada, whose family ran the farm for 40 years. “I want to farm, but will we be able to sell anything?”

What’s emerging in Japan six months since the nuclear meltdown at the Tokyo Electric Power Co. plant is a radioactive zone bigger than that left by the 1945 atomic bombings at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. While nature reclaims the 20 kilometer (12 mile) no-go zone, Fukushima’s $3.2 billion-a-year farm industry is being devastated and tourists that hiked the prefecture’s mountains and surfed off its beaches have all but vanished.

The March earthquake and tsunami that caused the nuclear crisis and left almost 20,000 people dead or missing may cost 17 trillion yen ($223 billion), hindering recovery of the world’s third-largest economy from two decades of stagnation.

Compensation Costs

A government panel investigating Tokyo Electric’s finances estimated the cost of compensation to people affected by the nuclear disaster will exceed 4 trillion yen, Kyodo News reported today, without saying how it got the information. The stock fell 6.2 percent to 243 yen, the lowest since June 13.

The bulk of radioactive contamination cuts a 5 kilometer to 10 kilometer-wide swath of land running as far as 30 kilometers northwest of the nuclear plant, surveys of radiation hotspots by Japan’s science ministry show. The government extended evacuations beyond the 20-kilometer zone in April to cover this corridor, which includes parts of Iitate village.

No formal evacuation zone was set up in Hiroshima after an atomic bomb was dropped on the city on Aug. 6, 1945, though as the city rebuilt relatively few people lived within 1 kilometer of the blast epicenter, according to the Hiroshima Atomic Bomb Museum. Food shortages forced a partial evacuation of the city in the summer of 1946.

Chernobyl Explosion

On April 26, 1986, an explosion at the Chernobyl reactor hurled 180 metric tons of nuclear fuel into the atmosphere, creating the world’s first exclusion zone of 30 kilometers around a nuclear plant. A quarter of a century later, the zone is still classed as uninhabitable. About 300 residents have returned despite government restrictions.

The government last week said some restrictions may be lifted in outlying areas of the evacuation zone in Fukushima, which translates from Japanese as “Lucky Isle.” Residents seeking answers on which areas are safe complain of mixed messages.

“There are no simple solutions,” Timothy Mousseau, a professor of biological sciences at the University of South Carolina, said. Deciding whether life should go on in radiation tainted areas is a “question of acceptable risks and trade offs.”

To Mousseau, one thing is clear.

‘Consequences’

“There will be consequences for some of the people who are exposed to levels that are being reported from the Fukushima prefecture,” Mousseau said by e-mail from Chernobyl, where he is studying radiation effects.

Japan abandoned any ambition to develop atomic weapons after the 1945 bombings. Two decades later, the nation embraced nuclear power to rebuild the economy after the war in the absence of domestic oil and gas supplies.

Tokyo Electric’s decision in the 1960s to name its atomic plant Fukushima Dai-Ichi has today associated a prefecture of about 2 million people that’s almost half the size of Belgium with radiation contamination. In contrast, Chernobyl is the name of a small town near the namesake plant in what today is Ukraine.

The entire prefecture has been stained because of the link, according to Governor Yuhei Sato.

“At Fukushima airport you don’t see Chinese and Korean visitors like before because of negative associations,” he said.

Stigmatized

The fear of radiation was prevalent after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings and it stigmatized the survivors, known as hibakusha, or people exposed to radiation. Many hibakusha concealed their past for fear of discrimination that would prevent them finding work or marriage partners, according to the Japan Confederation of A-and H-bomb Sufferers Organization.

Some people believed A-bomb survivors could emit radiation and others feared radiation caused genetic mutations, said Evan Douple, Associate Chief of Research at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation in Hiroshima.

An examination of more than 77,000 first-generation children in Hiroshima and Nagasaki after the bombings found no evidence of mutations, he said.

While radiation readings are lower in Fukushima than Hiroshima, Abel Gonzales, the vice-chair of the International Commission on Radiological Protection, said similar prejudices may emerge.

“Stigma. I have the feeling that in Fukushima this will be a very big problem,” Gonzales said in a symposium held in Fukushima City on the six-month anniversary of the disaster.

Bullying

Some children that fled Fukushima are finding out what Gonzales means.

Fukushima schoolchildren were being bullied at their new school in Chiba prefecture near Tokyo for “carrying radiation,” the Sankei newspaper reported in April, citing complaints made to education authorities. An 11-year-old Fukushima boy was hospitalized in Niigata prefecture after being bullied at his new school, Kyodo News reported April 23.

Produce from Fukushima’s rich soil is also being shunned. Peaches, the prefecture’s biggest agricultural product after rice, have halved in price this year. Beef shipments from the prefecture were temporarily suspended and contamination concerns stopped the town of Minami Soma from planting rice, according to local authorities.

Fallow Land

Some land around the Fukushima reactors will lie fallow for two decades or more before radiation levels fall below Japan’s criteria for evacuation, the government said Aug. 26.

Radiation risks in the 20 kilometer zone forced the evacuation of about 8 percent, or 160,000, of some 2 million people who live in Fukushima. Almost 56,000 were sent to areas outside Fukushima, prefecture spokesman Masato Abe said by phone. More than 8,000 left on their own accord because of radiation fears, Abe said.

Inside the evacuation areas, levels of radiation higher than the government’s criteria for evacuation have been recorded at 89 of 210 monitoring posts. At 24 of the sites, the reading was higher than the level at which the International Atomic Energy Agency says increases the risk of cancer.

Japan Atomic Energy Institute researcher Toshimitsu Homma used Science Ministry data to compare the geographic scale of the contamination in Fukushima with Chernobyl.

He estimates the no-go zone in Fukushima will cover 132 square kilometers, surrounded by a permanent monitoring area of 264 square kilometers, assuming Japan follows the criteria set by the Soviet Union in 1986.

The two areas combined equal about half the size of the five boroughs that comprise New York City. In the case of Chernobyl, the two zones cover a land mass 25 times greater, according to Homma’s figures.

Intermittent Information

While scientists knew back in March that radiation contamination would create an uninhabitable zone in Fukushima, information to the public has come intermittently, said Hiroaki Koide, a nuclear physics scientist at Kyoto University.

“Many people in Fukushima have to face the reality that they cannot go back to their homes for decades,” Koide said.

Masaki Otsuka said it may be worse than that.

“I don’t think I can ever go back to my house, because it was just 4 kilometers from the Dai-Ichi reactors,” the 51-year- old pipe welder said in an interview at an evacuation center in Azuma, Fukushima city, where he has lived for six months.

People’s distrust of politicians and scientists, as well as conflicting commentary, makes it harder for residents to decide whether to stay or leave, said Michiaki Kai, a professor in environmental health science at Oita University of Nursing and Health Sciences.

Official Contradictions

Similar circumstances affected residents near Chernobyl and those close to the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island in the U.S. in 1979.

“Contradiction in some official statements, and the appearance of non-scientifically based ‘expert’ voices, confused and added stress to the local populations in each case,” said Evelyn Bromet, distinguished professor in the department of psychiatry at Stony Brook State University of New York.

“Lies got told, contradictions got told. In the end it’s easier to believe nobody,” Bromet said in an interview, citing mental health studies she did on people in the areas.

What radiation hasn’t ruined, the earthquake and tsunami devastated. Fukushima prefecture welcomed 56 million domestic and overseas visitors in 2009, equal to 44 percent of Japan’s population.

Surfing Canceled

The coastal town of Minami Soma this year canceled its annual qualifying stage for the world surfing championship, part of a waterfront that lured 84,000 beachgoers in July and August last year, said Hiroshi Tadano, head of the town’s economic division. This year, nobody visited the beaches in the two months.

“Most of the beaches are destroyed,” Tadano said. “And of course, radiation played its part.”

The area’s biggest festival, Soma Noma Oi, a re-enactment of samurai battles, attracted 200,000 visitors last year. This year 37,000 came. Of the 300 horses typically used in the event, 100 were drowned in the tsunami and another 100 were evacuated due to radiation, Tajino said.

Minami Soma resident Miyaguchi, 54, lost his home and parents in the tsunami. He quit his job at Tokyo Electric, leaving him unemployed and housed in an evacuation center.

Still, he has no plans to move away. “Most people who wanted to move away have done so, but I can’t live in big cities like Tokyo,” he said, declining to give his first name.

The future of Fukushima is in the hands of residents like Miyaguchi and Harada who say they want to stay and work to reclaim their land from disaster.

A giant banner in the playground of the closed Haramachi elementary school in Minami Soma makes that a promise: “To all of you wherever you are, we say we won’t give up.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Yuriy Humber in Tokyo at yhumber@bloomberg.net; Yuji Okada in Tokyo at yokada6@bloomberg.net; Stuart Biggs in Tokyo at sbiggs3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Peter Langan at plangan@bloomberg.net; Teo Chian Wei at cwteo@bloomberg.net





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JPMorgan Differs With JPMorgan on Apple IPad

By Adam Satariano and Edmond Lococo - Sep 27, 2011 10:29 AM GMT+0700

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) analyst Mark Moskowitz said research from his colleagues in Asia about a cut in Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPad orders doesn’t represent the views of the securities firm’s U.S. team.

“Apple is fine,” Moskowitz wrote.

Apple is cutting orders to vendors in the supply chain for its iPad tablet computer, a move that may mean slower sales for companies including Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., according to the earlier report by Hong Kong-based JPMorgan analyst Gokul Hariharan.

Analysts at other firms also issued research aimed at quelling speculation that demand for iPads had diminished -- a concern that dragged down Apple’s stock as much as 3.2 percent in Nasdaq Stock Market trading yesterday. Chris Caso, an analyst at Susquehanna International Group, said the resulting “chatter” was “misleading” and Gene Munster, at Piper Jaffray Cos., said changes in orders may be the result of Apple moving some iPad manufacturing out of Asia to Brazil.

The earlier report “has the equity markets worried about Apple,” Moskowitz wrote yesterday. “Mr. Hariharan’s report focuses on how Hon Hai could be impacted by potential iPad sell- in order cuts. This alert is not the view of the U.S. IT Hardware team.”

Projection Maintained

Moskowitz maintained his projection that Apple will sell 10.9 million to 12 million iPads in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Apple fell $1.13, or 0.3 percent, to $403.17 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market trading after earlier declining as much as 3.2 percent. The shares have gained 25 percent this year.

The later note may have been prompted by complaints from Apple or large shareholders, said Bruce Foerster, president of South Beach Capital Markets in Miami.

“If nothing else this should be troublesome and at the end of the day you have to come down on the side of independent research,” said Foerster, a former managing director at securities firms including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. “That has to trump all, every time. Otherwise what are you selling?”

Moskowitz and Hariharan declined to comment beyond their respective reports. Steve Dowling, a spokesman for Cupertino, California-based Apple, declined to comment. Jennifer Zuccarelli, a spokeswoman for New York-based JPMorgan, didn’t immediately respond to a call and e-mail for comment after regular business hours.

Edmund Ding, a spokesman for Hon Hai, didn’t answer calls to his Taiwan and China mobile phones made today.

Orders Cut

Hariharan’s report, dated Sept. 25, said multiple supply- chain vendors indicated a 25 percent reduction in so-called sell-in orders in the past two weeks, the first such cut that analysts at JPMorgan’s Hong Kong-based electronic manufacturing services team said they have seen. Sell-in orders are those made by a company -- in this case, Apple -- to a supplier.

“We disagree with any talk of a shipment slowdown,” analysts at Barclays Capital wrote in a report. “The numbers being circulated Monday might be related to components and not to actual iPad 2 shipments, in our view. Components checks (are) not a good proxy for actual iPad product shipments.”

Talk of reduced Apple orders to suppliers may be coming from “pull-ins, not cuts,” as production was moved up to the third quarter from the fourth quarter, Susquehanna’s Caso wrote.

Caso said he does project a decline to 11 million to 13 million iPads built in the fourth quarter, from 17 million to 19 million in the third quarter.

“Accelerate Production”

“The 4Q sequential decline was accompanied by an increase in 3Q builds, leading us to conclude that production was likely pulled-in from 4Q to 3Q,” Caso wrote. Apple “has attempted to accelerate production in 3Q to ensure product availability for the holidays.”

Craig Berger, with FBR Capital Markets in New York, wrote a report saying his view was “largely consistent” with the research from JPMorgan’s Asia team on cuts to orders from Apple to iPad suppliers. The cut to fourth-quarter iPad production may reflect Apple being more cautious on overall global demand given recent market turbulence, and discounting some iPad growth in China, he wrote.

“For the iPad, 3Q11 builds were cut by 5%, while 4Q11 production estimates were cut by 24%, an incremental negative for Apple related supply chain participants,” Berger wrote.

IPad builds were cut by 24 percent in the fourth quarter from 17 million to 13 million, as iPad 2 WiFi builds were revised lower, and as ‘iPad 2 Plus’ production was removed from the forecast due to “display manufacturing challenges,” Berger wrote.

Apple’s iPad may account for 73 percent of tablet sales this year, according to research firm Gartner Inc. Products that run on Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android operating system, including Samsung Electronics Co.’s Galaxy tablets, will probably have about 17 percent of the market, Gartner said on Sept. 22.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) may release a product later this year that could become the No. 2 tablet in the market behind the iPad, Moskowitz wrote in a report earlier this month.

To contact the reporters on this story: Adam Satariano in San Francisco at asatariano1@bloomberg.net; Edmond Lococo in Beijing at elococo@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net





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Fukushima Desolation Worst Since Nagasaki

By Yuriy Humber, Yuji Okada and Stuart Biggs - Sep 27, 2011 11:49 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Japan Dead Zone Evokes Hiroshima Stigma as Wasteland Emerges

Paddy fields overgrown with weeds sit inside the evacuation zone around the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant, in Minamisoma, Fukushima, Japan. Photographer: Stuart Biggs/Bloomberg


Beyond the police roadblocks that mark the no-go zone around Japan’s wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant, six-foot tall weeds invade rice paddies and vines gone wild strangle road signs along empty streets.

Takako Harada, 80, returned to an evacuated area of Iitate village to retrieve her car. Beside her house is an empty cattle pen, the 100 cows slaughtered on government order after radiation from the March 11 atomic disaster saturated the area, forcing 160,000 people to move away and leaving some places uninhabitable for two decades or more.

“Older folks want to return, but the young worry about radiation,” said Harada, whose family ran the farm for 40 years. “I want to farm, but will we be able to sell anything?”

What’s emerging in Japan six months since the nuclear meltdown at the Tokyo Electric Power Co. plant is a radioactive zone bigger than that left by the 1945 atomic bombings at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. While nature reclaims the 20 kilometer (12 mile) no-go zone, Fukushima’s $3.2 billion-a-year farm industry is being devastated and tourists that hiked the prefecture’s mountains and surfed off its beaches have all but vanished.

The March earthquake and tsunami that caused the nuclear crisis and left almost 20,000 people dead or missing may cost 17 trillion ($223 billion), hindering the recovery of the world’s third-largest economy from two decades of stagnation.

Compensation Costs

A government panel investigating Tokyo Electric’s finances estimated the cost of compensation to people affected by the nuclear disaster will exceed 4 trillion yen, Kyodo News reported today, without saying how it got the information.

The bulk of radioactive contamination cuts a 5 kilometer to 10 kilometer-wide swath of land running as far as 30 kilometers northwest of the nuclear plant, surveys of radiation hotspots by Japan’s science ministry show. The government extended evacuations beyond the 20-kilometer zone in April to cover this corridor, which includes parts of Iitate village.

No formal evacuation zone was set up in Hiroshima after an atomic bomb was dropped on the city on Aug. 6, 1945, though as the city rebuilt relatively few people lived within 1 kilometer of the blast epicenter, according to the Hiroshima Atomic Bomb Museum. Food shortages forced a partial evacuation of the city in the summer of 1946.

Chernobyl Explosion

On April 26, 1986, an explosion at the Chernobyl reactor hurled 180 metric tons of nuclear fuel into the atmosphere, creating the world’s first exclusion zone of 30 kilometers around a nuclear plant. A quarter of a century later, the zone is still classed as uninhabitable. About 300 residents have returned despite government restrictions.

The government last week said some restrictions may be lifted in outlying areas of the evacuation zone in Fukushima, which translates from Japanese as “Lucky Isle.” Residents seeking answers on which areas are safe complain of mixed messages.

“There are no simple solutions,” Timothy Mousseau, a professor of biological sciences at the University of South Carolina, said. Deciding whether life should go on in radiation tainted areas is a “question of acceptable risks and trade offs.”

To Mousseau, one thing is clear.

‘Consequences’

“There will be consequences for some of the people who are exposed to levels that are being reported from the Fukushima prefecture,” Mousseau said by e-mail from Chernobyl, where he is studying radiation effects.

Japan abandoned any ambition to develop atomic weapons after the 1945 bombings. Two decades later, the nation embraced nuclear power to rebuild the economy after the war in the absence of domestic oil and gas supplies.

Tokyo Electric’s decision in the 1960s to name its atomic plant Fukushima Dai-Ichi has today associated a prefecture of about 2 million people that’s almost half the size of Belgium with radiation contamination. In contrast, Chernobyl is the name of a small town near the namesake plant in what today is Ukraine.

The entire prefecture has been stained because of the link, according to Governor Yuhei Sato.

“At Fukushima airport you don’t see Chinese and Korean visitors like before because of negative associations,” he said.

Stigmatized

The fear of radiation was prevalent after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings and it stigmatized the survivors, known as hibakusha, or people exposed to radiation. Many hibakusha concealed their past for fear of discrimination that would prevent them finding work or marriage partners, according to the Japan Confederation of A-and H-bomb Sufferers Organization.

Some people believed A-bomb survivors could emit radiation and others feared radiation caused genetic mutations, said Evan Douple, Associate Chief of Research at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation in Hiroshima.

An examination of more than 77,000 first-generation children in Hiroshima and Nagasaki after the bombings found no evidence of mutations, he said.

While radiation readings are lower in Fukushima than Hiroshima, Abel Gonzales, the vice-chair of the International Commission on Radiological Protection, said similar prejudices may emerge.

“Stigma. I have the feeling that in Fukushima this will be a very big problem,” Gonzales said in a symposium held in Fukushima City on the six-month anniversary of the disaster.

Bullying

Some children that fled Fukushima are finding out what Gonzales means.

Fukushima schoolchildren were being bullied at their new school in Chiba prefecture near Tokyo for “carrying radiation,” the Sankei newspaper reported in April, citing complaints made to education authorities. An 11-year-old Fukushima boy was hospitalized in Niigata prefecture after being bullied at his new school, Kyodo News reported April 23.

Produce from Fukushima’s rich soil is also being shunned. Peaches, the prefecture’s biggest agricultural product after rice, have halved in price this year. Beef shipments from the prefecture were temporarily suspended and contamination concerns stopped the town of Minami Soma from planting rice, according to local authorities.

Fallow Land

Some land around the Fukushima reactors will lie fallow for two decades or more before radiation levels fall below Japan’s criteria for evacuation, the government said Aug. 26.

Radiation risks in the 20 kilometer zone forced the evacuation of about 8 percent, or 160,000, of some 2 million people who live in Fukushima. Almost 56,000 were sent to areas outside Fukushima, prefecture spokesman Masato Abe said by phone. More than 8,000 left on their own accord because of radiation fears, Abe said.

Inside the evacuation areas, levels of radiation higher than the government’s criteria for evacuation have been recorded at 89 of 210 monitoring posts. At 24 of the sites, the reading was higher than the level at which the International Atomic Energy Agency says increases the risk of cancer.

Japan Atomic Energy Institute researcher Toshimitsu Homma used Science Ministry data to compare the geographic scale of the contamination in Fukushima with Chernobyl.

He estimates the no-go zone in Fukushima will cover 132 square kilometers, surrounded by a permanent monitoring area of 264 square kilometers, assuming Japan follows the criteria set by the Soviet Union in 1986.

The two areas combined equal about half the size of the five boroughs that comprise New York City. In the case of Chernobyl, the two zones cover a land mass 25 times greater, according to Homma’s figures.

Intermittent Information

While scientists knew back in March that radiation contamination would create an uninhabitable zone in Fukushima, information to the public has come intermittently, said Hiroaki Koide, a nuclear physics scientist at Kyoto University.

“Many people in Fukushima have to face the reality that they cannot go back to their homes for decades,” Koide said.

Masaki Otsuka said it may be worse than that.

“I don’t think I can ever go back to my house, because it was just 4 kilometers from the Dai-Ichi reactors,” the 51-year- old pipe welder said in an interview at an evacuation center in Azuma, Fukushima city, where he has lived for six months.

People’s distrust of politicians and scientists, as well as conflicting commentary, makes it harder for residents to decide whether to stay or leave, said Michiaki Kai, a professor in environmental health science at Oita University of Nursing and Health Sciences.

Official Contradictions

Similar circumstances affected residents near Chernobyl and those close to the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island in the U.S. in 1979.

“Contradiction in some official statements, and the appearance of non-scientifically based ‘expert’ voices, confused and added stress to the local populations in each case,” said Evelyn Bromet, distinguished professor in the department of psychiatry at Stony Brook State University of New York.

“Lies got told, contradictions got told. In the end it’s easier to believe nobody,” Bromet said in an interview, citing mental health studies she did on people in the areas.

What radiation hasn’t ruined, the earthquake and tsunami devastated. Fukushima prefecture welcomed 56 million domestic and overseas visitors in 2009, equal to 44 percent of Japan’s population.

Surfing Canceled

The coastal town of Minami Soma this year canceled its annual qualifying stage for the world surfing championship, part of a waterfront that lured 84,000 beachgoers in July and August last year, said Hiroshi Tadano, head of the town’s economic division. This year, nobody visited the beaches in the two months.

“Most of the beaches are destroyed,” Tadano said. “And of course, radiation played its part.”

The area’s biggest festival, Soma Noma Oi, a re-enactment of samurai battles, attracted 200,000 visitors last year. This year 37,000 came. Of the 300 horses typically used in the event, 100 were drowned in the tsunami and another 100 were evacuated due to radiation, Tajino said.

Minami Soma resident Miyaguchi, 54, lost his home and parents in the tsunami. He quit his job at Tokyo Electric, leaving him unemployed and housed in an evacuation center.

Still, he has no plans to move away. “Most people who wanted to move away have done so, but I can’t live in big cities like Tokyo,” he said, declining to give his first name.

The future of Fukushima is in the hands of residents like Miyaguchi and Harada who say they want to stay and work to reclaim their land from disaster.

A giant banner in the playground of the closed Haramachi elementary school in Minami Soma makes that a promise: “To all of you wherever you are, we say we won’t give up.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Yuriy Humber in Tokyo at yhumber@bloomberg.net; Yuji Okada in Tokyo at yokada6@bloomberg.net; Stuart Biggs in Tokyo at sbiggs3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Peter Langan at plangan@bloomberg.net; Teo Chian Wei at cwteo@bloomberg.net




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Crude Oil Advances in New York on Optimism Europe Debt Crisis Will Ease

By Ben Sharples - Sep 27, 2011 7:36 AM GMT+0700

Oil advanced for a second day in New York on speculation steps by Europe to tame its sovereign debt crisis will temper a slowdown in the region's economy and demand for raw materials.

Futures climbed as much as 1.6 percent as equities rallied. The European Central Bank may debate covered-bond purchases and interest rate cuts, a euro-region central bank official said. The European Union accounted for 16 percent of global oil demand last year, according to BP Plc’s annual Statistical Review of World Energy. U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week, an Energy Department report tomorrow may show.

“If there’s a credible plan that is good enough and certain enough to restore reasonable confidence to the world then a lot of things are going to look cheap at current prices and that probably includes oil,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

Crude for November delivery gained as much as $1.31 to $81.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $80.97 at 10:33 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday rose 0.5 percent to $80.24. Oil has dropped 8.9 percent this month and 15 percent this quarter. Prices are down 11 percent this year.

Brent futures for November settlement gained 61 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $104.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $23.58 to U.S. futures, compared with a record $26.87 on Sept. 6, based on front-month settlement prices.

Oil Supplies

“Crude benchmarks were propped up by the rally in equity markets and a softer U.S. dollar,” Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said in a note today. “Uncertainty over Europe continued to be a drag on prices, but with most of the bad news already priced in, oil markets could stabilize after posting steep declines last week.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 2.3 percent in New York. The Dollar Index fell and the euro weakened against 13 of 16 major peers yesterday.

U.S. crude stockpiles probably climbed 2.2 million barrels last week, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline supplies rose 1 million barrels and inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased by 500,000 barrels.

Brent futures, the benchmark for more than half the world’s crude, have declined 7 percent this quarter. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, may cut production as Brent falls toward $90 a barrel next year because the government needs higher prices to fund its budget, HSBC Holdings Plc said yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in Singapore at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net




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Gold Futures Recover From Biggest 3-Day Decline Since 1983; Silver Gains

By Glenys Sim - Sep 27, 2011 6:39 AM GMT+0700

Gold futures advanced for the first time in five days as the biggest three-day drop since 1983 encouraged purchases by investors seeking a store of value amid turmoil in global financial markets. Silver futures climbed for the first day in four, trading back above $30 an ounce.

December-delivery bullion rose as much as 2.4 percent to $1,633.30 an ounce in New York before trading at $1,630.50. Futures tumbled 11.8 percent in the previous three days, the largest such drop in 28 years. Immediate-delivery gold was little changed at $1,628.72 an ounce after slumping 9.8 percent in the last four days on optimism European officials will come up with a plan to stem the region’s debt crisis.

“The facts haven’t changed,” said Gijsbert Groenewegen, a partner at Silver Arrow Capital Management. “The only thing that changes over time is the perception that the Europeans are doing something about it, that they might come up with some solutions, but they’re not solving the problem. They’re just postponing what will happen in three months or six months or whatever but we will get default.”

The European Central Bank is likely to debate restarting covered-bond purchases and may discuss interest-rate cuts to ease funding strains, a euro-region central bank official said. Policy makers are under pressure to halt the 18-month European debt crisis that has Greece on the brink of default and threatens to tip the global economic back into recession.

“When the market gets very panicky they sell everything off and they go for cash and treasuries because that’s really the largest market where you can park your money,” Groenewegen said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “From a fundamental point of view, the dollar and treasuries are no better than the sovereign debt in Europe. It’s a great opportunity to accumulate more gold and silver.”

December-delivery silver gained as much as 2.8 percent to $30.81 an ounce after dropping to an 11-month low of $26.150 yesterday. Cash silver was little changed at $30.6775 an ounce.

To contact the reporter for this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net




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Google+ U.S. Traffic Soars After Social-Networking Site Opens to Everyone

By Brian Womack - Sep 27, 2011 7:33 AM GMT+0700

Google Inc. (GOOG)’s new social-networking service, an effort to lure away users from Facebook Inc., saw U.S. visits soar 13-fold last week after the site opened to the general public, Experian Hitwise said in a report.

The Google+ site received almost 15 million U.S. visits in the week ended Sept. 24, compared with 1.1 million the previous week, according to Hitwise, a research firm in New York. Until last week, the service was in an early test phase, and users could only join if they were invited.

Google, the world’s biggest Internet-search company, is trying to leverage that dominance to gain more social-networking users. When it opened Google+ to the public last week, it also added new search capabilities, making it easier to find posts from friends and other content.

With the changes, Google boosted the number of Google+ features to 100. The company is trying to provide reasons to leave Facebook, which has more than 750 million members. Google also unveiled an online-game service last month with developers such as Zynga Inc., maker of the Facebook game “FarmVille,” and Rovio Entertainment Oy, creator of the hit “Angry Birds.”

Google rose $6.38, or 1.2 percent, to $531.89 today in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. Shares of the Mountain View, California-based company have declined 10 percent this year.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at +1-415-617-7218 or bwomack1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at +1-415-617-7223 or tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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Priceline Names Former Microsoft Executive Huston CEO of Booking.com Unit

By Ari Levy - Sep 27, 2011 4:51 AM GMT+0700

Priceline.com Inc. (PCLN), the biggest U.S. online travel agency by stock market value, appointed former Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) executive Darren Huston as chief executive officer of its European hotel unit, Booking.com.

Kees Koolen, the founder and former head of Booking.com, will serve as chairman, the Norwalk, Connecticut-based company said today in a statement.

Revenue in Priceline’s international business, the bulk of which comes from Booking.com, surged 90 percent to $612.9 million in the second quarter, accounting for 56 percent of total sales. Since acquiring Amsterdam-based Booking.com in 2005, Priceline’s annual revenue has more than tripled and the stock price has jumped more than 20-fold.

“Globally, there are significant opportunities for our business, both in core markets and in developing ones,” Huston, 45, said in the statement.

Booking.com offers access to more than 165,000 hotels in 43 languages. Priceline also owns Agoda.com in Bangkok.

Priceline fell $1.02 to $513.59 at 4 p.m. today on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The shares have gained 29 percent this year, compared with the 7.5 percent drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Huston joined Microsoft, the world’s largest software maker, in 2003 and spent the last three years as corporate vice president in the consumer and online business. From 2005 to 2008 he was CEO of Microsoft Japan, the largest unit of the Redmond, Washington-based company outside the U.S.

Prior to Microsoft, Huston was a senior vice president at Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), handling acquisitions and product development at the world’s biggest operator of coffee shops. Huston has a master’s degree in business administration from Harvard Business School.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ari Levy in San Francisco at alevy5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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Oracle May Make Acquisitions to Gain Industry-Specific Software, Hurd Says

By Aaron Ricadela - Sep 27, 2011 4:32 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Oracle Co-President Mark Hurd

Oracle co-President Mark Hurd. Photographer: Tony Avelar/Bloomberg


Oracle Corp. (ORCL), facing mounting competition from smaller, “boutique” rivals, may make more deals to purchase industry-specific software companies, co- President Mark Hurd said.

Oracle is focused on so-called vertical markets, such as financial-services customers, and acquisitions could be a part of that strategy, Hurd said today in his first interview with a business publication since joining the company. Still, Redwood City, California-based Oracle doesn’t feel pressure to tap its $31.7 billion in cash to make a deal, he said.

“There’s a lot of value in these industry verticals we’ve invested in over the years,” said Hurd, referring to software for the banking, telecommunications and retailing industries. “It’s hard to beat the returns the company gets.”

Oracle, the world’s largest maker of database software, also is seeking to spur sales by appealing to budget-minded businesses. The company’s hardware and software can boost efficiency, letting customers reduce the number of servers and databases they ran, Hurd said. Oracle plans to unveil new computer systems packaged with database software and other programs at its OpenWorld conference next week in San Francisco.

OpenWorld Show

The company also will release new software applications in its Fusion line at OpenWorld, stepping up competition with boutique companies that focus on specialized software applications, Hurd said. The company aims to repeat the success it’s had with last year’s crop of new products, he said.

“If you went back a year ago and looked at the amount of technology released at Oracle OpenWorld, you’d have to say it’s a tremendous yield,” Hurd said. “Next week we’ll announce even more.”

Oracle rose 81 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $29.71 at 4 p.m. New York time on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The shares have climbed 10 percent during the past 12 months.

Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison has spent more than $40 billion on acquisitions since 2005, including last year’s $7.4 billion acquisition of computer maker Sun Microsystems Inc. The takeover spree has also added programs that let companies manage human resources, operations and other complicated computing tasks.

Ellison also introduced a new computer system, the Sparc Supercluster, at an event at the company’s headquarters today. The product includes a Sparc T4 processor that can run Oracle’s database and a user’s applications faster than older Sun machines, Ellison said at the event.

“We think lots and lots of people are going to upgrade from their current Sparc systems,” Ellison said. “This is a really fast computer.”

Hurd joined Oracle last September, a month after he was ousted as Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)’s CEO. Hurd was replaced at Hewlett-Packard by Leo Apotheker, who was forced out himself last week and replaced by former EBay Inc. CEO Meg Whitman. Hurd declined to discuss Hewlett-Packard in today’s interview.

To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Ricadela in San Francisco at aricadela@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net



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JPMorgan Analysts Issue Differing Apple Reports

By Adam Satariano - Sep 27, 2011 8:05 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image JPMorgan Analysts Issue Differing Reports on Apple Orders

An Apple Inc. employee, left, gestures towards an iPad 2 during the opening of the company's new store in Le Chesnay, near Paris, France, on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2011. Apple Inc. is cutting orders to vendors in the supply chain for its iPad tablet computer, a move that may result in slower sales for companies including Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report. Photographer: Fabrice Dimier/Bloomberg


JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) analyst Mark Moskowitz said research from his colleagues in Asia about a cut in Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPad orders doesn’t represent the views of the securities firm’s U.S. team.

“Apple is fine,” Moskowitz wrote.

Apple is cutting orders to vendors in the supply chain for its iPad tablet computer, a move that may mean slower sales for companies including Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., according to the earlier report by JPMorgan analyst Gokul Hariharan.

Analysts at other firms also issued research aimed at quelling speculation that demand for iPads had diminished -- a concern that dragged down Apple’s stock as much as 3.2 percent in Nasdaq Stock Market trading yesterday. Chris Caso, an analyst at Susquehanna International Group, said the resulting “chatter” was “misleading” and Gene Munster, at Piper Jaffray Cos., said changes in orders may be the result of Apple moving some iPad manufacturing out of Asia to Brazil.

The earlier report “has the equity markets worried about Apple,” Moskowitz wrote yesterday. “Mr. Hariharan’s report focuses on how Hon Hai could be impacted by potential iPad sell- in order cuts. This alert is not the view of the U.S. IT Hardware team.”

Moskowitz maintained his projection that Apple will sell 10.9 million to 12 million iPads in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Apple fell $1.13 to $403.17 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market trading after earlier declining to $391.30. The shares had gained 25 percent this year before today.

‘Troublesome’ Reports

The later note may have been prompted by complaints from Apple or large shareholders, said Bruce Foerster, president of South Beach Capital Markets in Miami.

“If nothing else this should be troublesome and at the end of the day you have to come down on the side of independent research,” said Foerster, a former managing director at securities firms including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. “That has to trump all, every time. Otherwise what are you selling?”

Moskowitz and Hariharan declined to comment beyond their respective reports. Steve Dowling, a spokesman for Cupertino, California-based Apple, declined to comment. Jennifer Zuccarelli, a spokeswoman for New York-based JPMorgan, didn’t immediately respond to a call and e-mail for comment after regular business hours.

Hariharan’s report, dated Sept. 25, said multiple supply- chain vendors indicated a 25 percent reduction in so-called sell-in orders in the past two weeks, the first such cut that analysts at JPMorgan’s electronic manufacturing services team in Hong Kong said they have seen. Sell-in orders are those made by a company -- in this case, Apple -- to a supplier.

‘Not a Good Proxy’

“We disagree with any talk of a shipment slowdown,” analysts at Barclays Capital wrote in a report. “The numbers being circulated Monday might be related to components and not to actual iPad 2 shipments, in our view. Components checks (are) not a good proxy for actual iPad product shipments.”

Edmund Ding, spokesman for Hon Hai, didn’t respond to an e- mail or answer calls to his Taiwan and China mobile phones.

Apple’s iPad may account for 73 percent of tablet sales this year, according to research firm Gartner Inc. Products that run on Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android operating system, including Samsung Electronics Co.’s Galaxy tablets, will probably have about 17 percent of the market, Gartner said on Sept. 22.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) may release a product later this year that could become the No. 2 tablet in the market behind the iPad, Moskowitz wrote in a report earlier this month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Satariano in San Francisco at asatariano1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net



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Netflix Proves 57% Less Expensive for Amazon-to-Google Acquirers: Real M&A

By Ronald Grover, Rita Nazareth and Cliff Edwards - Sep 27, 2011 3:30 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Netflix Gets Cheaper for A Buyer After Steep Stock Drop

Reed Hastings, CEO of Netflix, attends a press conference to announce the Netflix service in Mexico at the St. Regis Hotel on September 12, 2011 in Mexico City. Photographer: Hector Vivas/Latin Content/Getty Images

While Netflix may have lost more than a half-million U.S. subscribers after boosting rates, the company has more paying customers for movies and TV shows than Amazon, Google and Sony Corp. Amazon could now pay a 50 percent premium for Netflix’s. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg


Netflix Inc. (NFLX)’s biggest slump in seven years is making the mail-order and streaming movie service a 57 percent cheaper takeover target for companies from Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) to Google Inc. (GOOG)

The Los Gatos, California-based company has lost almost $9 billion in market value since July, before a price increase and the rebranding of its DVD-by-mail service as Qwikster alienated customers and drove away investors. Netflix, which still earned more per dollar invested than 99 percent of the biggest American companies in the past year, was valued at $129.36 a share last week, half its record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While Netflix may have lost more than a half-million U.S. subscribers after boosting rates, the company has more paying customers for movies and TV shows than Amazon, Google and Sony Corp. (6758) Amazon could now pay a 50 percent premium for Netflix’s streaming service and still get the entire company for 26 percent less than its value just two weeks ago, according to data compiled by Wedbush Securities and Bloomberg.

“It’s an attractive asset,” Todd Lowenstein, who helps oversee $17.2 billion for Highmark Capital Management Inc., said in a telephone interview from Los Angeles. “There would be some interested suitors taking a look at it, especially given the substantial pullback in the share price.”

Steve Swasey, a spokesman for Netflix, said the company doesn’t comment on rumors or speculation.

Rise and Fall

Today, Netflix climbed 2.2 percent to $132.22 in New York.

Separately, Netflix said in a statement that it secured rights to stream films from DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc., maker of “Madagascar” and the “Shrek” films.

Netflix, which had 24.6 million U.S. users at the end of June, had surged more than 1,000 percent in the past five years to a record $298.73 on July 13.

Netflix more than tripled last year for the biggest gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the benchmark gauge for American common equity. The company had a return on equity in the past 12 months of 84 percent, versus a 15 percent average for S&P 500 companies, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Since July, Netflix has tumbled as customers panned the pricing change, which increased the rate for users of both the online and DVD services by 60 percent, talks broke down with the Starz movie channel and pay-TV operator Dish Network Corp. (DISH) started a competing service with Blockbuster Movie Pass.

Hulu Offers

The drop accelerated in the past two weeks, with a 38 percent tumble over five days through Sept. 21, as the company cut its U.S. subscriber forecast and Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings separated and renamed the DVD business.

Netflix’s decline may give companies with designs on the market such as Amazon and Google a reason to consider buying the online entertainment leader rather than build their own services. Both were said to have made first-round offers for Netflix rival Hulu LLC, people with knowledge of the situation said on Sept. 2.

Hastings may have split the business in order to sell the streaming service to Seattle-based Amazon, the world’s largest Internet retailer, according to Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles, who upgraded Netflix to “outperform” last week.

Amazon, which offers online movie rentals free to customers who buy its $79-a-year Amazon Prime shipping service, may be willing to pay $130 a share for the streaming alone, Pachter wrote in a report to clients dated Sept. 22. His estimate includes a 50 percent takeover premium. Pachter projects the Qwikster DVD business would get $25 a share.

‘Logical Sense’

“For someone like Amazon to add additional content, it might be a way to do it,” Peter Sorrentino, a senior money manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees $14.8 billion. “So much has been delivered over the Internet. Another distribution channel would make logical sense.”

Mary Osako, a spokeswoman for Amazon, didn’t respond to an e-mail and a telephone call seeking comment.

Google, owner of the YouTube video website, expanded its YouTube Movies rental service to Canada in the past month. The company last year introduced Google TV, a service that allows consumers to watch movies from the Internet through their television sets.

“The name that would pop in my mind first is Google,” Tim Ghriskey, who oversees $2 billion as chief investment officer of Solaris Group LLC in Bedford Hills, New York, said in a telephone interview. “Google loves to throw money at ideas and companies that they think have the potential to be game changers and become major players.”

Relative Value

Katelin Todhunter-Gerberg, spokeswoman at Mountain View, California-based Google, declined to comment on whether it is considering a purchase of Netflix.

Brett Harriss, an analyst with Gabelli & Co. in Rye, New York, says that potential buyers are more likely to wait until Netflix gets cheaper before making a bid.

Including net debt, Netflix is valued at 16.6 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, almost twice as much as the average company in the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“At some point, this does get cheap,” Harriss said in an interview. “But I don’t think we’re down there yet.”

Netflix may need financial backing as competition for content and customers intensifies, said Frank Biondi, the former Universal Studios CEO and Viacom Inc. president who now sits on the boards of RealD Inc. and Cablevision Systems Corp.

‘The Only Independent’

Netflix had $376 million of cash at the end of the second quarter, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That compares with current and future accounts payable for streaming content of $687 million, as well as $2.2 billion of content commitments that didn’t meet recognition requirements, according to Wedbush.

Amazon has $6.36 billion in cash and equivalents, while Google holds $39.1 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“I don’t think Reed Hastings wants to be the only independent in a world where Amazon or Google can bring so many resources and have so much money,” Biondi said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ronald Grover in Los Angeles at rgrover5@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net; Cliff Edwards in San Francisco at cedwards28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Hauck at dhauck1@bloomberg.net; Katherine Snyder at ksnyder@bloomberg.net; Anthony Palazzo at +1-323-782-4228 or apalazzo@bloomberg.net.



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