Economic Calendar

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Profit Taking Drags Most Markets Lower

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Easy Forex | Mar 25 09 01:21 GMT |

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened as stocks gave up some of the gains seen on Monday and traders took profit on short USD positions. The January Richmond Fed Index improved to -20 vs. -51 previously. Crude Oil closed up $0.18 ending the New York session at $53.98 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 39 points or -2.52% whilst the Dow Jones fell 115 points or -1.49%. Looking ahead, February Durable Good Orders forecast at -2% vs. -4.5% previously. Also released Crude Oil Inventories looking for a 1.2M build.

The Euro (EUR) couldn’t get back above 1.3700 and fell heavily as the recent rally ran out of steam. Support at 1.3500 failed to hold and the pair slipped to 1.3430. PMI surveys in March showed slight improvement with services ticking higher to 40.1 vs. 39 and manufacturing 34 vs. 33.4 previously. January Current Account Deficit widened to -12.7B vs. -7.6B previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3433 and a high of 1.3677 before closing the day at 1.3480. Looking ahead, German IFO Business Climate is forecast at 82.2 vs. 82.6.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) had a volatile day as the morning session in Asia saw most crosses testing year highs. Solid USD/JPY buying intensified the move higher in the majors. Most of the crosses fell heavily as the majors pulled back although USD/JPY remained supported. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.06 and a high of 98.55 before closing the day around 98.10 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February Trade Balance forecast at -10.9 vs. -952.6 previously.

The Sterling (GBP) broke above the key 1.4660 level and remained very well supported on comments by BOE King and solid economic data. Inflation surprised to the topside with Core CPI (Feb) rising 0.9% vs. -0.7% previously. Retail Sales (Feb) rose to 0.6% vs. -0.2% forecast. BOE King said there is no reason for the Pound to weaken and that it contributed to a high CPI reading. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4560 and a high of 1.4777 before closing the day at 1.4700 in the New York session. Looking ahead, CBI Distributive Trades are forecast at -35 vs. -25.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) failed at 0.7100 and fell sharply tracking the Euro lower as US stocks fell. 0.7000 failed to prop and the pair slipped below. Consolidation of the recent move higher is healthy and the pair could still test higher level if stability returns to the markets and commodity prices remain strong. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6936 and a high of 0.7092 before closing the US session at 0.6980. Looking ahead, RBA Governor Stevens Speaks.

Gold (XAU) dropped off further as speculation the worst is behind us eroded demand for the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$917 and high of USD$943 before ending the New York session at USD$929 an ounce.

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South Korea Plans to Spend Record 17.7 Trillion Won

By Seyoon Kim

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea plans to spend a record 17.7 trillion won ($13 billion) on cash handouts, cheap loans, infrastructure and job training to revive an economy on the brink of its first recession in more than a decade.

The stimulus will boost economic growth by 1.5 percentage points and help create 552,000 new jobs, the finance ministry said in Gwacheon today. The package, equivalent to 1.9 percent of gross domestic product, is more than double the spending in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis.

President Lee Myung Bak, whose approval rating has dropped since he took office in early 2008 as the economy faltered, aims to get the plan passed by parliament in April to add to the 51 trillion won in stimulus already allocated. Asian governments have pledged about $700 billion in spending as the deepening global recession roils their export-dependent economies.

“The key is how fast the government can get approval from the parliament and how efficiently the government will implement the plans,” said Lim Jiwon, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Seoul.

South Korean lawmakers last month pushed and shoved each other in parliament over a bill to ease restrictions on media ownership, potentially hampering the Lee administration’s efforts to pass other legislation.

The spending package, the biggest to be announced at one time in South Korea, is part of the government’s request for an extra budget of 28.9 trillion won. The extra budget includes 11.2 trillion won needed to fund previously announced projects amid a shortfall in tax revenue.

Shares Increase

The Kospi stock index advanced 0.8 percent to 1,208.88 at 12:05 p.m. in Seoul, extending this year’s gain to 7.5 percent. The won climbed 0.6 percent to 1,384 per dollar and has risen 9.4 percent in the past month, Asia’s best-performing currency.

“An active role for fiscal policy is called for more than ever,” Finance Minister Yoon Jeung Hyun told reporters. The spending will “help our economy recover from the current difficulty and stabilize peoples’ lives,” he added.

Asia’s fourth-largest economy shrank 5.6 percent last quarter from the previous quarter, the biggest drop since 1998.

Neighboring Japan is preparing a spending package that economists say may be bigger than the 10 trillion yen ($103 billion) already pledged to support an economy facing its worst recession since 1945. China has a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan, which runs through 2010.

Job Losses

South Korea plans to spend 3.5 trillion won on job creation and employment training and 4.5 trillion won expanding loans to smaller companies facing a shortage of cash, the ministry said today. About 3 trillion won is allocated to rebuild roads, railways and other infrastructure in provincial areas, it said.

South Korea lost 142,000 jobs in February, the biggest decline since September 2003. Industrial production plunged a record 25.6 percent in January.

The government will spend 4.2 trillion won providing cash and coupons to about 2.6 million people with little or no income, improving heating systems for rental homes and extending cheaper loans to college students from low-income families.

South Korea plans to finance 16.9 trillion won of the stimulus by selling debt, the ministry said today, which would take this year’s total bond sales to a record 91.2 trillion won.

The benchmark 2014 government bond yield has risen almost half a percentage point since the end of 2008 on concern auctions will overwhelm investor demand. The yield gained 6 basis points to 4.34 percent today.

Parliament Approval

The government needs parliamentary approval for the budget proposal. While the ruling Grand National Party agreed on the plan, the main opposition Democratic Party suggested a stimulus of 13.8 trillion won. Any delay in passing the package will erode confidence, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

“The Korean government’s policy approach is becoming more cohesive and proactive,” Thomas J. Byrne, a senior vice president at Moody’s, said in an interview in Seoul.

“Confidence would be undermined if this coordinated approach fizzles and the key thing would be whether the government will succeed in getting these various programs passed through the National Assembly in April,” he said.

In July 2007, Moody’s raised its rating on South Korea’s long-term foreign-currency debt to A2, the sixth-highest investment grade.

Industrial Bank of Korea, which has received 1 trillion won of state capital since November, will get 300 billion won from the extra budget to enable it to increase lending to exporters, the ministry said today. Korea Asset Management Corp., a state agency that liquidates distressed assets, will get 200 billion won to boost its capacity to buy bad debt from banks.

President Lee’s administration has set up a 20 trillion won fund to replenish Korean banks’ capital as bad loans increase, and is establishing a 40 trillion won fund to buy distressed corporate bonds.

National debt will increase to 366.9 trillion won, or 38.5 percent of the GDP, after the extra budget, the finance ministry forecast. That’s up from 32.5 percent in 2008.

To contact the reporter on this story: Seyoon Kim in Seoul at skim7@bloomberg.net





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Geithner Races to Show Progress on Plan for Distressed Assets

By Robert Schmidt and Rebecca Christie

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s plan to remove banks’ distressed assets cleared its first hurdle, triggering the fourth-best day for U.S. stocks since the 1930s. The next hurdle: showing results soon enough to convince a skeptical Congress to approve more money.

With regulators scheduled to complete their review of banks’ capital needs by the end of next month, the Treasury may need to seek $750 billion or more to offset writedowns on the loans and securities, analysts say. The Obama administration’s task will become even more difficult if the Geithner plan isn’t perceived to be working by then.

After the furor over bonuses paid to American International Group Inc. executives, the administration must “get Congress to turn down the heat on the financial sector,” said Vincent Reinhart, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and former Federal Reserve monetary-affairs chief.

“That will require that the White House use its approval rating to convince the American people that Wall Street can be part of the solution,” he said.

Under the plan Geithner outlined yesterday, the Treasury will provide $75 billion to $100 billion for an initiative dubbed the Public-Private Investment Program that will finance private investors’ purchases of devalued loans and securities. The program’s initial objective is $500 billion, and it could be expanded to $1 trillion, the administration said.

Geithner Hearing

Geithner faces lawmakers today at a hearing on the AIG rescue, which has so far cost as much as $182.5 billion. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will also appear at the same House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. in Washington.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index soared 18 percent yesterday, helping drive a 7.1 percent advance in the broader S&P 500 Stock Index, the fourth-biggest gain since the 1930s. The reaction to the administration’s announcement helped erase most of the losses since Geithner’s initial outline on Feb. 10 spurred criticism from investors for its lack of detail.

If Geithner follows through on picking asset managers in coming weeks to run funds that will buy distressed debt, he would succeed where former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson failed.

After Congress approved the $700 billion financial-rescue fund in October, the Treasury for weeks sought to hire private managers and set up a system of government purchases of the securities. Paulson abandoned that attempt in November. Geithner plans to hire five asset managers by May.

Rescue Allocations

The $700 billion rescue program is mostly in the form of loans and investments that are supposed to be repaid. The Obama and Bush administrations have allocated about $668 billion of the money, according to calculations by Bloomberg.

A further gauge of initial success could come from a Federal Reserve program providing loans to investors in new securities backed by loans and assets. Officials want to expand the program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, to include older, devalued securities. Policy makers hailed the TALF’s start last week for catalyzing about $9 billion of deals.

The administration’s plan also includes an initiative to purchase whole loans from banks, which will be overseen by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. As with the asset managers for the distressed securities, the Treasury will provide matching capital to investors. The FDIC will offer debt guarantees of up to six times the capital provided.

Middle Road

By employing private investors, the administration is betting it can avoid the strategy advocated by Nobel laureate Paul Krugman and ex-Treasury Secretary James Baker of the government taking over banks loaded with toxic debt. At the same time, Geithner is seeking to address the devalued assets, rather than leave them on balance sheets as authorities in Japan did in the 1990s at the cost of economic stagnation.

“Geithner’s plan is very much in the middle,” Adam Posen, deputy director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The Treasury is putting itself through conniptions, trying to find out a way to do this without going to Congress to ask for money or nationalizing the banks.”

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini projects $3.6 trillion of losses on U.S. loans and securities, including writedowns on $10.84 trillion of securities and losses on a total of $12.37 trillion of unsecuritized loans.

Greenspan Estimate

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week that banks will need more than $750 billion in fresh capital, either from the government or private investors. President Barack Obama’s budget for 2010 also included a “placeholder” for an extra $750 billion in rescue funds.

Such sums would likely meet with congressional resistance.

“The American people are not interested in committing even more of their grandchildren’s money to another bailout,” said Representative Tom Price of Georgia, who leads a group of fiscally conservative Republicans in the House.

Some Republicans said yesterday they were willing to give Geithner’s approach a chance, while Democratic leaders supported the announcement.

“It’s a genuine and sincere effort to try to free up the credit markets,” Republican Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire told reporters. “Whether it will work will depend on how much buy-in there is from the private sector.”

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said in a statement: “Above all, we must act. One risk we will not take is standing on the sidelines and doing nothing while a bad situation gets worse.”

Banks’ Incentive

There’s no guarantee that banks will sell to the public- private investment funds, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair told reporters yesterday on a conference call. She also said that “if we show the program is a success, it may be expanded, Congress may want to provide further support for it.”

Populist anger erupted this month after the Treasury said it couldn’t stop a $165 million AIG payout to employees in its financial-products unit. The House voted to impose a 90 percent tax on bonuses paid by companies such as AIG and Fannie Mae that received more than $5 billion in taxpayer assistance.

“We need to balance that basic objective that we not reward failure against the hugely important imperative that we get the financial system doing what it needs to do for recovery,” Geithner said in a news conference yesterday.

At today’s hearing, Geithner and Bernanke may detail an agreement announced yesterday between their agencies over specifying their respective responsibilities.

The Fed will avoid allocating credit, the joint statement said. “Government decisions to influence the allocation of credit are the province of fiscal authorities.” The Treasury will seek over time to assume the Fed’s so-called Maiden Lane facilities, which hold assets from AIG and the former Bear Stearns Cos.

To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Schmidt in Washington at rschmidt5@bloomberg.net; Rebecca Christie in Washington at rchristie4@bloomberg.net





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Japan Wanted BOJ to Expand Corporate Bond Program

By Mayumi Otsuma

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Finance Ministry asked the Bank of Japan to consider expanding its corporate-bond purchase program to channel more funds into the economy, meeting minutes from last month show.

“The government would like the bank to support the economy from the financial side by providing funds more actively,” according to minutes of the Feb. 18-19 meeting released today in Tokyo. “The government would like the bank to consider expanding the scope” of its corporate debt purchases.

The bank hammered out details of the corporate bond purchase plan at the gathering. Having lowered the key interest rate to 0.1 percent in December, the central bank has since been focusing on lowering borrowing costs for companies by buying assets from banks.

“The scope of the unconventional measures taken by the BOJ is truly wide,” said Jan Lambregts, head of Asian research at Rabobank International in Hong Kong. “The central bank may decide to expand them further in the months to come.”

At the meeting, the central bank said it would buy as much as 1 trillion yen ($10 billion) in bonds rated A or higher, adding to the plan to buy as much as 3 trillion yen in commercial paper, or short-term company debt.

Exit Strategy

Members also agreed to extend a commercial paper purchase program as well as an unlimited collateral-backed lending facility for lenders. Some of them said that the bank should avoid prolonging those measures because investors and traders may “take them for granted and consequently terminating them smoothly might become difficult.” The bank should consider “an exit strategy in advance,” those members said.

The central bank last week increased its purchases of government bonds from banks and said it would extend subordinated loans to lenders as it widens efforts to counter the nation’s deepening recession.

Companies’ borrowing costs have fallen since the central bank offered to buy corporate debt.

The spread on three-month commercial paper issued by companies rated A1 against government financing bills of the same maturity has fallen to 29 basis points from 141 before the bank’s Dec. 19 announcement that it would buy the debt.

Japanese banks’ borrowing costs have also eased. The Tokyo three-month interbank offered rate, or Tibor, a measure of the cost of lending between banks, fell to 0.678 yesterday, down from a decade-high 0.922 percent on Dec. 16. Some members at the meeting said it would be hard to directly influence the rate.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at motsuma@bloomberg.net





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Fed May Concentrate Treasury Purchases in Most Recent Issues

By Daniel Kruger

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is likely to target the newest, most-traded Treasury securities for purchase to maximize the effect for lowering borrowing costs for consumers, according to fixed-income strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., UBS AG and Wrightson ICAP.

The central bank may announce as early as today which maturities it will buy as part of its plan to acquire $300 billion of Treasuries during the next six months and expand purchases of mortgage bonds sold by government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $1.25 trillion from $500 million. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which conducts market transactions for the Fed, said March 18 it would target maturities between two and 10 years.

Investors have shunned debt backed by consumer loans as unemployment has climbed in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Sales of the bonds plunged 40 percent last year to $106 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, choking off funding to lenders. About $2.3 billion of debt backed by auto loans has been sold this year as of last week, compared with more than $9.6 billion in the same period of 2008, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“The goal of this is to lower the benchmark rates of which spread products are priced,” Louis Crandall, chief economist at Jersey City, New Jersey-based research firm Wrightson ICAP. “To do that that you want to be buying either the on-the-runs or close substitutes.”

‘Off-The-Runs’

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has risen 12 basis points to 2.65 percent following the Fed’s announcement of the purchase plan. Yield on the securities tumbled 47 basis points after the buyback announcement, the biggest one-day rally since 1962. Two- year government note yields have climbed about eight basis points to 0.89 percent.

“There’s a strong incentive on their part to buy on-the- runs,” or the most recently auctioned securities, said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan and former staffer at the Fed.

The difference in yield between older, higher coupon Treasuries and new issues has already narrowed on the Fed’s buyback plan. The spread between the 8.875 percent Treasury sold in 1989 and maturing in February 2019 and the 10-year benchmark 2.75 percent note sold last month contracted to 25 basis points yesterday from 39 basis points on March 17.

The central bank will probably concentrate its purchases in the seven- to 10-year part of the market because that is where hedging activities are concentrated, Feroli said.

Record Auctions

Buying older, higher coupon off-the-run Treasuries would allow investors to rid themselves of harder-to-trade debt and deploy the proceeds elsewhere, said Chris Ahrens, an interest- rate strategist at UBS Securities LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut, one of the 16 primary dealers that trade with the Fed.

“You’ve accomplished what they want to do, which is buy back debt, and what you want to do, which is get liquidity onto your balance sheet,” Ahrens said.

The Fed’s purchases may boost demand as the Treasury prepares to auction a record $98 billion of notes this week, surpassing the $94 billion record set the week ended Feb. 27. The government will sell $40 billion of two-year notes today, $34 billion of five-year debt tomorrow and $24 billion of seven- year notes the following day.

Government debt sales will almost triple this year to a record $2.5 trillion, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Kennedy Administration

President Barack Obama’s administration is seeking congressional approval for a budget of $3.55 trillion for the fiscal year beginning in October.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the 2010 deficit at $1.38 trillion, higher than the White House’s $1.17 trillion projection.

The Fed last purchased Treasuries in an effort to impact interest rates in early 1961, when President John Kennedy launched Operation Twist to raise short-term interest rates while simultaneously lowering long-term rates, according to a 2004 paper written by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. The policy employed the Fed’s open market operations desk, as the current policy is also intended to do.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkkruger1@bloomberg.net.





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Exxon Valdez Ghost Lives On as Company Hires Spill-Prone Ships

By Alaric Nightingale and Tony Hopfinger

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Alaskan fisherman J.R. Janneck’s boat is 38 feet. The SeaRiver Long Beach, the sister ship of the Exxon Valdez, which caused the worst oil spill in U.S. history, is 987 feet and carries 1.5 million barrels of oil. There is another difference.

“My boat is double-hulled,” Janneck, 63, said as he worked on his silver salmon fishing boat in Valdez Harbor last month. Twenty years after the March 24, 1989, disaster, Janneck still remembers the “tiger-stripe sheen” of oil in the water and the absence of birds around him.

Even after 79 percent of the world supertanker fleet has been replaced by craft with two hulls, Exxon Mobil Corp. remains the biggest Western user of the older designs. It hired more of the tankers last year than the rest of the 10 biggest companies by market value combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Exxon, the world’s largest oil company, has kept using tankers with one hull even as 151 countries have decided two are better than one for preventing oil spills and pledged to ban single-hull vessels by 2015. The European Union called the design “more accident-prone” in 2003, when it started a prohibition that takes full effect next year. London-based BP Plc says it won’t hire them because of the risk of leaking.

U.S. refining rivals, including Sunoco Inc., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips and Koch Industries Inc., and Paris-based Total SA didn’t hire one such vessel last year, the data show. Exxon’s use of single-hull ships compared with its nine biggest competitors is based on more than 12,500 ship-rental deals. The data were provided by shipbrokers, including Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd. in London, and shipping-information provider Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay in Redhill, England.

Coastline Damaged

The Valdez dumped 11 million gallons of oil into Prince William Sound, damaging at least 700 miles of coastline and killing more than 36,000 birds, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It took three years and $3.86 billion to clean up the spill and compensate fishermen and other business owners. The U.S. Supreme Court last year cut the punitive damages against Exxon to $507.5 million from $2.5 billion.

“I am very surprised they are still using these tankers because they are still suffering brand damage from the Exxon Valdez,” said Tracey Rembert, a senior corporate governance analyst at the Service Employees International Union in Washington, whose largest stockholding is 126,000 shares of Exxon. “There are people who still don’t buy gas at Exxon, and that was 20 years ago.”

Extra Protection

Double-hull tankers have an outer layer of steel, normally about an inch thick and 6.5 feet from the inner one, that acts as a buffer in an accident. When tankers with one shell are ruptured, the only place for the oil to go is into the sea.

It costs about 20 percent less to hire a single-hull ship. Exxon’s estimated savings amounted to less than a cent a share last year, according to Bloomberg calculations. The Irving, Texas-based company made a profit of $45.2 billion, or $8.69 a share, in 2008, the largest in U.S. corporate history.

Last year Exxon saved an estimated $18 million using single-hull vessels, based on the number of times it hired such ships multiplied by 2008 rental rates from Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. and average durations compiled by Bloomberg. Hiring a double-hull replacement for SeaRiver Long Beach for a year would have cost about $25 million using the same rates.

Hull design is only one of “hundreds of variables” Exxon uses in monitoring safety, and cost isn’t one of them, said Rob Young, a company spokesman. He declined to comment on the savings question because it would be an “incorrect characterization” to say its motivation in hiring the vessels was financial. He also declined to comment on whether double- hulls are intrinsically safer than singles.

No Spills

Exxon had no oil spills in 2008 and “less than one teaspoon per million barrels carried” in 2007, Young said by e- mail. The company’s shipping units “often exceed regulatory standards to enhance the safety, security and reliability of marine transportation,” he said.

In the aftermath of the Valdez disaster, the U.S. led a global push to outlaw single-hull vessels. Later accidents involving the Erika off France in 1999, which had been hired by Total, and the Prestige off the Spanish coast in 2002, leased by Crown Resources AG of Switzerland, increased pressure.

The U.S., under the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, will allow single-hull tankers to sail in its waters either to unload at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port or at dedicated unloading areas out at sea until 2015. The International Maritime Organization, the shipping division of the United Nations, will ban single- hull tankers starting next year. Member nations can avoid the prohibition for five more years by outlining their intentions in a letter to the IMO. Lee Adamson, a spokesman for the IMO, was unable to say how many have sought such exemptions.

Government Findings

In deciding to restrict single hulls, the U.S. Congress considered design studies provided to the IMO that found spills from double-hull tankers would be “zero in most accidents,” said Robert Gauvin, Washington-based technical adviser at the U.S. Coast Guard.

A 1992 report to Congress by the Coast Guard found that double hulls are unequalled for avoiding spills and prevent them in “all but the most severe incidents.”

“We in the market don’t understand why Exxon continues to do this,” said Per Mansson, a shipbroker at Nor Ocean Stockholm AB, who’s been involved in the tanker industry for 30 years.

BP Experience

On March 6, a tanker BP hired -- the double-hull SKS Satilla -- struck an oil rig 65 miles from Galveston, Texas, that was lost during Hurricane Ike. The incident, which caused “multiple punctures” along a 60-meter (197-foot) by 12-meter section, didn’t leak any oil, Coast Guard spokesman Tim Tilghman said from Galveston.

SKS Satilla had on board about 1 million barrels, or 42 million gallons, of crude oil.

“Because of the double hull, there’s no further penetration, other than the outer skin,” Sverre Jacob Mehn, a spokesman for the ship’s manager, Kristian Gerhard Jebsen Skipsrederi AS, said in an interview from Bergen, Norway.

The proportion of single-hull supertankers has shrunk to 21 percent from 100 percent before Valdez, according to Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay, as shipbuilders such as Hyundai Heavy Industries in Ulsan, South Korea, the world’s largest, stopped making them. A new double-hull supertanker costs about $126 million, while the last mono-hull carrier to change hands, built in 1994, cost $14 million, according to Oslo-based shipbroker Fearnleys AS.

‘Substantially’ Lower

Exxon last year arranged to hire at least 32 single-hull very large crude carriers -- or VLCCs -- tankers slightly bigger than the Exxon Valdez, and one smaller vessel, the data show. That amounted to 6.1 percent of its overall tanker bookings.

Taking into account vessels Exxon owns and ships it has on long-term rentals, its single-hull rentals are “substantially” lower than 6 percent, said Young, the company spokesman.

By contrast, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s biggest oil company, moved 1.8 percent of cargoes on single-hull tankers last year, the data show. Shell was the world’s largest hirer of oil tankers in 2008, booking them on at least 855 occasions.

All of Shell’s long-term rental tankers have double hulls, spokeswoman Catherine Aitken said by e-mail from The Hague. Sometimes it’s forced to use single-hull carriers because there aren’t enough with two available, she said, adding hull design isn’t a “panacea” for safety.

Maintenance Important

Maintenance, regular inspections and effective operational management are also important, said Apostolos Papanikolaou, an Athens professor of ship design who has led studies on the relative safety of both hull configurations.

The combined single-hull rentals by Exxon and Shell are dwarfed by carriers in Asia, including Indian Oil Corp. and Thai Oil Pcl. IOC, based in New Delhi, hired single-hull tankers 130 times in 2008 out of 188 recorded rentals, the data show. Bangkok-based Thai Oil, the nation’s largest refiner, booked them 55 times out of 60, or 92 percent of the time, commercial manager Pongpun Amornvivat said.

Both companies said they use single-hull ships because of the savings.

“As long as they can be used, we will take advantage of lower rentals,” said Basavaraj Ningappa Bankapur, director of refineries at IOC, India’s biggest refiner.

Exxon’s single-hull SeaRiver Long Beach regularly calls on San Francisco and Los Angeles as well as Valdez. The 21-year-old carrier had a leak from a hairline fracture in 2000 and had to return to Valdez to unload its cargo. About 10 gallons of crude spilled into the sea, all of which was cleaned up, said Raymond Botto, a spokesman for SeaRiver Maritime, an Exxon subsidiary.

Like Janneck, the fisherman in Valdez, Leroy Cabana from Homer 200 miles away remains angry about Exxon two decades later. That the Exxon Valdez’s single-hull sister ship continues to call on Alaska fits a pattern, said Cabana, 53, who was part of the army of workers hired to clean up the spill.

For him, the accident wasn’t just caused by a single-hull tanker. “It was caused by a reckless company,” he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alaric Nightingale in London at Anightingal1@bloomberg.net; Tony Hopfinger in Anchorage at thopfinger@gci.net.





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Australian Coal Faces $3.5 Bln C02 Costs, Group Says

By Angela Macdonald-Smith

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s coal-mining industry faces costs of about A$5 billion ($3.5 billion) in the first five years of the country’s proposed emissions-trading system, the national coal industry group said.

The extra costs will mean increased job losses and reduced investment and will result in a drop in Australia’s share of the global thermal coal market, Ralph Hillman, executive director of the Australian Coal Association, said today in Sydney. As many as 10 mines risk closure because they won’t be able to pass on additional costs, Hillman said.

Australia is due to introduce a national emissions trading system on July 1, 2010, to help reduce gases blamed for global warming. Woodside Petroleum Ltd., operator of Australia’s biggest liquefied natural gas project, Caltex Australia Ltd. and CLP Holdings Ltd.’s TRUenergy Pty unit are among companies that have criticized aspects of the plan.

To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net





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Malaysian Ringgit Rises to 5-Week High as U.S. Plans Spur Rally

By David Yong

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s ringgit rose to the strongest level in five weeks on speculation U.S. efforts to remove toxic assets from banks will help unlock credit and spur demand for emerging-market assets.

The currency advanced for a fourth day against the dollar after the U.S. Treasury announced it will finance as much as $1 trillion in purchases of banks’ distressed assets to revive the financial industry without having to nationalize lenders. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional stocks climbed for a second day to reach the highest since Feb. 10.

“There’s optimism in the stock and currency market arising from the U.S. measures,” said Lim Shyang Fuh, head of treasury at ECM Libra Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. “Risk aversion has clearly subsided.”

The ringgit gained 0.4 percent to 3.6252 per dollar as of 10:12 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency climbed to 3.6225, the strongest since Feb. 17.

Investors put $350 million into emerging-market equity funds in the week ended March 18, a second week of inflows, as risk appetite improved, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, a research company that tracks investor funds.

Seven of Asia’s 10 most-traded currencies rose against the greenback. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner yesterday said the U.S. will use $75 billion to $100 billion of its bank-rescue funds to buy illiquid real-estate assets. The Public-Private Investment Program will also rely on Federal Reserve financing and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. debt guarantees.

Non-deliverable forwards signal traders are betting the ringgit will weaken 0.8 percent to 3.6570 in three months, compared with expectations for a rate of 3.6730 yesterday. The currency is down 4.8 percent this year, poised for a fourth quarter of losses. Forwards are contracts in which assets are bought and sold at current prices for delivery at a future specified date.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Yong in Singapore at dyong@bloomberg.net.





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Australian Fund Managers Face ‘Earnings Headwinds,’ RBS Says

By Malcolm Scott

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Australian fund managers including Platinum Asset Management Ltd. and Challenger Financial Services Group Ltd. face “numerous earnings headwinds,” and investors should remain “underweight” the shares, said Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

The nation’s publicly traded money managers will be weighed down by weak fund flows; investors’ continued preference for cash; lower average funds under management; a growing aversion to alternative investments; declining property valuations; and widening credit spreads, analysts led by Sydney-based John Heagerty wrote in a note to clients dated yesterday.

“Managements are essentially powerless to prevent profit erosion in the face of shrinking revenues,” the analysts wrote. Meanwhile, the collapse of some large hedge funds “has damaged investor confidence in alternative assets, which will likely result in a continued shrinking of the asset class in 2009.”

Total assets managed by Australian pension funds, unit trusts, life insurers and managed funds fell to A$1.19 trillion ($837 billion) as of Dec. 31, from A$1.4 trillion a year earlier, as the credit crisis sparked a rout in stock markets and asset prices and widened credit spreads.

RBS lowered its earnings per share estimates for the year ending June 30 for the local fund managers by between 1 percent and 8 percent. RBS kept its “sell” recommendations on Perpetual Ltd. and Platinum, saying they remain overvalued at 16 times and 17 this year’s forecast earnings.

RBS recommends investors “hold” shares in BT Investment Management Ltd. and Henderson Group Plc because of their “more modest valuations.” It has a “buy” call on Challenger, saying the business is “stronger than its valuation implies.”

Platinum, controlled by Kerr Neilson, last month said first- half profit fell 34 percent to A$64.7 million as management and performance fees tumbled along with global stock markets. Challenger, backed by billionaire James Packer, reported a first- half loss of A$107.9 million as the value of investments declined amid the deepening global credit crisis.

To contact the reporter on this story: Malcolm Scott in Sydney at Mscott23@bloomberg.net





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China Yurun, Danamon, Poh Kong: Asia Ex-Japan Equity Preview

By Berni Moestafa

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes today in Asia trading, excluding Japan. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are from the previous close, unless noted otherwise.

South Korean semi-conductor companies: South Korea plans to push domestic semiconductor-equipment makers to consolidate and will offer financial aid to reorganize the industry, Edaily reported, citing government officials it didn’t name. Hynix Semiconductor Inc. (000660 KS), the world’s second-largest computer-memory maker, rose 7.5 percent to 10,300 won. Jusung Engineering Co. (036930 KS), a semiconductor-equipment maker, gained 5.4 percent to 9,930 won.

Alliance Global Group Inc. (AGI PM): The Philippine property, restaurant and liquor company bought back 700,000 shares at 1.34 pesos each, bringing its total treasury shares to 519.2 million. Alliance added 4.7 percent to 1.34 pesos.

China Yurun Food Group Ltd. (1068 HK): The country’s biggest hog processor said full-year profit rose 32 percent to HK$1.14 billion ($147 million) in 2008, from HK$859 million a year earlier. The stock climbed 0.6 percent to HK$10.66.

EEI Corp. (EEI PM): The Manila-based construction company said its Al Rushaid Construction Co. venture won a $192 million contract to build a facility for Saudi Polymers Co. It also said profit rose to 506 million pesos last year and maintained its dividend. EEI jumped 28.1 percent to 1.14 pesos.

IOI Corp. (IOI MK): Malaysia’s second-largest palm-oil producer spent 2.27 million ringgit ($620,000) buying back its shares, a stock exchange filing showed. The company bought 600,000 shares at 3.78 ringgit each, according to the filing. IOI advanced 4.8 percent to 3.90 ringgit.

Petrovietnam Insurance Joint-Stock Co. (PVI VN): The fifth- biggest company in the Hanoi Securities Trading Center expects pretax profit to rise 27 percent this year, according to Chief Executive Officer Bui Van Thuan. Pretax profit is targeted to climb to 218 billion dong ($12.5 million), Thuan said. Petrovietnam dropped 4 percent to 24,000 dong.

Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (TEL PM): The nation’s most valuable company bought back 523,226 shares at 2,020 pesos each, bringing total treasury shares to 2.66 million. PLDT rose 2.5 percent to 2,015 pesos.

Poh Kong Holdings Bhd. (PKH MK): The Malaysian jewelry maker said it scrapped a plan to sell as much as 10 percent in new stock to investors in a private placement because of the weak stock market. Poh Kong was unchanged at 36 sen.

PT Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ): The company backed by Temasek Holdings Pte and Deutsche Bank AG said shareholders approved its proposal to sell 4 trillion rupiah ($345 million) of new shares in a rights offer to raise capital. Proceeds from the sale will be used to expand lending, Danamon President Director Sebastian Paredes said. Danamon jumped 11 percent to 2,925 rupiah.

To contact the reporter on this story: Berni Moestafa in Jakarta at bmoestafa@bloomberg.net





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Japanese Stocks Jump on Treasury Plan, Yen; Nippon Steel Rises

By Masaki Kondo

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks climbed, sending the Topix index to a seventh-straight gain, after a U.S. Treasury plan to remove toxic assets from banks triggered a global rally in equities.

Mizuho Financial Group Inc., the bank with the biggest subprime-related writedowns in Asia, jumped 5.5 percent after the U.S. said it will finance as much as $1 trillion in purchases of distressed assets. Mazda Motor Corp., Japan’s second-largest car exporter, advanced 6.3 percent as the local currency weakened against the dollar and euro. Nippon Steel Corp. and JFE Holdings Inc. added at least 3.2 percent as they won price cuts for hard coking coal.

“Investors are riding a tide of euphoria over the U.S. plan,” Mamoru Shimode, chief equity strategist at Resona Trust & Banking Co. said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Whether $1 trillion will suffice or there will be willing sellers remains to be seen.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 189.60, or 2.3 percent, to 8,405.13 as of 9:49 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index rose 16.61, or 2.1 percent, to 808.17, set for the longest winning streak since Jan. 7. Yesterday, the Nikkei staged its biggest rally in 10 days as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote about the asset-purchase plan in the Wall Street Journal.

The Nikkei has risen 8.6 percent in March through yesterday, set for the steepest monthly advance since April 2008, amid confidence that measures by central banks and governments will subdue the financial crisis and restore economic growth. The Nikkei’s price-to-book ratio, or the combined market value of its members versus their corporate net worth, rose above 0.9 times for the first time since Feb. 10, according to Nikkei Inc.

Stocks Rally

The Treasury, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will provide private investors with financing to buy illiquid loans and securities held by banks, the Treasury said yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index soared 7.1 percent in New York, the most since Oct. 28. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index gained 3 percent to the highest close since Feb. 19.

Mizuho, Japan’s No. 2 listed bank, rose 5.5 percent to 232 yen, and bigger competitor Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. climbed 4.5 percent to 535 yen. Both stocks increased for a seventh day today, the longest stretch since at least July 2006.

‘Big Step Forward’

Tokio Marine Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest casualty insurer, soared 3.1 percent to 2,635 yen. Orix Corp., the nation’s top non-bank financial company, leapt 8 percent to 3,650 yen, leading its peers to the biggest gain among 33 industry groups on the Topix.

Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano today told reporters that the Treasury plan is a “big step forward” and that it may help bolster global financial markets. Japan’s stock market hasn’t recovered enough to let the government ditch its equity- bolstering plan, he said.

Mazda, which derives more than a quarter of its overseas sales from Europe, soared 6.3 percent to 186 yen. Canon Inc., the world’s No. 1 digital-camera maker, added 4.2 percent to 2,875 yen and Sony Corp. rose 3.5 percent to 2,080 yen.

The Japanese currency depreciated against the dollar to as much as 97.35 from 96.18 at the 3 p.m. close of stock trading in Tokyo yesterday. The yen weakened versus the euro to 132.57, a level not seen since Oct. 21. A weaker local currency boosts the value of overseas sales for Japanese companies.

Nippon Steel, the world’s No. 2 producer of the alloy, advanced 4.8 percent to 282 yen, and rival JFE rose 3.2 percent to 2,280 yen. The companies negotiated a 57 percent cut in the price they pay BHP Billiton Ltd. for hard coking coal, two industry executives with knowledge of the deal said.

Japan Tobacco Inc., the world’s third-largest publicly traded cigarette maker, slumped 3.4 percent to 236,700 yen. Public broadcaster NHK reported the nation may ban smoking in hospitals, schools and government offices.

Nikkei futures expiring in June added 2.2 percent to 8,360 in Osaka and Singapore.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.





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Asian Stocks Extend Global Rally on U.S. Treasury’s Bank Plan

By Hanny Wan and Masaki Kondo

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, led by finance and energy stocks, after a U.S. Treasury plan to remove toxic assets from banks triggered a global rally in equities.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia climbed 3.5 percent in Sydney after the Treasury said it will finance as much as $1 trillion in purchases of banks’ distressed assets. BHP Billiton Ltd., Australia’s largest oil producer, added 2.2 percent after oil prices rose. Toyota Motor Corp., which gets 37 percent of sales from North America, rose 3.6 percent in Tokyo after the yen weakened against the dollar.

“Investors are riding a tide of euphoria over the U.S. plan,” Mamoru Shimode, chief equity strategist at Resona Trust & Banking Co. said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Whether $1 trillion will suffice or there will be willing sellers remains to be seen.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.8 percent to 83.68 at 9:47 a.m. in Tokyo, adding to a 3.4 percent gain yesterday. The gauge has rallied 19 percent from a five-year low on March 9 amid speculation the worst of the financial crisis is over.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 2.5 percent to 8,421.08. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.5 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi Index rose 1.4 percent. All markets open for trading advanced.

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.2 percent today. The gauge soared 7.1 percent in New York, the biggest advance since Oct. 28 and narrowing this year’s loss to 8.9 percent. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index gained 3 percent to the highest close since Feb. 19.

Purchasing Power

The Treasury, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will provide private investors with financing to buy illiquid loans and securities held by banks, the Treasury said yesterday. The Public-Private Investment Program will use up to $100 billion from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program enacted last year, giving the government “purchasing power” of $500 billion, which may double over time, the Treasury said.

Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s largest mortgage lender, jumped 3.5 percent to A$36.30. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest publicly traded bank, surged 5.3 percent to 539 yen.

An index of finance stocks on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.5 percent. The gauge is the worst performer in the past 12 months, as credit-related losses worldwide swelled to more than $1.2 trillion.

BHP added 2.2 percent to A$34.05. Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-largest oil producer, climbed 4.1 percent to A$40.05. In New York, crude-oil futures jumped 3.3 percent to $53.80 a barrel yesterday, the highest settlement since Nov. 28.

Yen Declines

Toyota gained 3.6 percent to 3,160 yen after the currency depreciated against the dollar to as much as 97.35 from 96.18 at the 3 p.m. close of stock trading in Tokyo yesterday. A weaker local currency boosts the value of overseas sales for Japanese companies.

The Bank of Japan will brief executives of 14 major banks today on its plans to provide subordinated loans to help them bolster capital, Nikkei English News reported, without saying where it obtained the information. The central bank will urge banks to use the funds to increase lending, public broadcaster NHK said in a separate report today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Hanny Wan in Hong Kong at hwan3@bloomberg.net; Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.





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