Economic Calendar

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

BlueGold, Galena Beat Competing Hedge Funds, Commodity Indexes

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- BlueGold Capital Management LLP and Galena Asset Management Ltd. extended their winning streak in the first four months, outpacing competing hedge funds and commodities.

Pierre Andurand’s $1.1 billion BlueGold energy fund rose 35 percent through April, two people with direct knowledge of the returns said, declining to be named because the data are confidential. Galena’s $430 million metals fund added 8.6 percent, according to David Mimra, London-based head of sales and marketing.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose 6.1 percent this year, rebounding from its worst year in a half century, led by a 65 percent gain in gasoline. Assets in commodity-related indexes and exchange-traded funds advanced $18 billion to $172 billion in the first quarter, according to Barclays Capital.

“As commodity prices now appear to be bottoming, we are seeing an increase in investor interest” in funds not governed by index weightings, said Adam De Chiara, fund manager for Jefferies Asset Management’s commodities unit in Stamford, Connecticut.

BlueGold and Galena’s gains compare with an average four- month advance of 4.2 percent for all hedge funds monitored by Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. Hedge funds returned an average of 3.2 percent in April, the best performance in more than three years, according to Eurekahedge Pte.

The BlueGold fund was started by Andurand, a 32-year-old amateur Thai kickboxer, and Dennis Crema, 49, in February 2008. Both previously worked at commodity trader Vitol Group. BlueGold returned 209 percent last year. Andurand declined to comment.

Commodity Trader

Galena Asset Management, managed by Jeremy Weir, is the investment unit of Trafigura Beheer BV, the third-largest independent oil trader. The company started an energy hedge fund last month, headed by Claude Lixi, who traded oil options at Morgan Stanley.

Clive Capital LLP made 3.4 percent in the first four months, according to investors. The London-based hedge fund, managing about $2.3 billion, returned 44 percent last year. The company declined to comment.

The $1.3 billion Merchant Commodity Fund, run by Singapore- based Aisling Analytics Pte Ltd., returned 2 percent in the first four months, according to investors. The fund was founded by former Cargill Inc. traders Michael Coleman and Doug King.

The rebound in commodities is attracting investors again, on optimism that the worst global recession since World War II is improving. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, reached a record of almost 1,128 metric tons last month, overtaking Switzerland as the world’s sixth-largest gold holding.

‘Recession is Over’

“We think the recession is over,” said Jan Loeys, head of global market strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., in an interview in Hong Kong. “Commodities, materials in particular, are going to be benefiting right now as investors actually start to get worried about future inflation.”

U.S. consumer prices will advance 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter and 1.7 percent in 2010, according to as many as 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Most of the funds outpaced returns from the CRB index. Copper has been the second-biggest gainer after gasoline, rising 50 percent, as China increased imports to bolster stockpiles.

Paul Touradji’s Global Resources fund returned 0.4 percent in the first four months, according to two people familiar with the matter. Armel Leslie, an outside spokesman for New York- based Touradji Capital Management LP, which manages $2.6 billion, declined to comment.

Vermillion Asset

Vermillion Asset Management LLC’s $850 million Viridian commodity fund lost about 3.5 percent in the period, according to a person with knowledge of the result. The fund, founded by New York-based Drew Gilbert and Chris Nygaard, started trading in June 2005.

The Krom River Commodity Fund retreated 8.1 percent in the first four months, investors said, citing preliminary estimates from the company. The $550 million fund, started by Chris Brodie in 2006, returned almost 37 percent last year. The Baar, Switzerland-based fund manager declined to comment.

Hedge funds are private, largely unregulated pools of capital whose managers can buy or sell any assets, bet on falling as well as rising prices and participate substantially in profits from money invested.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net


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The Euro Gains Against The Dollar As Investors Believe The ECB Will Not Cut Gain

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Finotec Group | May 12 09 09:18 GMT |

The euro approached a seven-week high against the dollar on speculation European Central Bank officials will signal they plan to keep interest rates on hold, maintaining the allure of assets region. 'As far as growth is concerned, we're around the inflection point in the cycle, that's the sentiment,' Trichet said at a press conference at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. Europe's single currency also gained after a Chinese government report showed urban fixed-asset investment rose at the fastest pace in more than two years, spurring demand for higher-yielding assets. Central banks will keep using the dollar as the world's reserve currency, Reuters cited Chinese ambassador to the U.S. Zhou Wenzhong as saying last week. He described views the dollar could be replaced with a basket of other currencies as a 'scholarly exploration,' according to Reuters. The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.3640 as of 8:40am, London Time.

Britain's housing slump eased in April as more prospective homebuyers helped to make price declines the least widespread in more than a year, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said. The number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices fell exceeded those reporting gains by 59.9 percentage points, the strongest result since January 2008, the lobby group said today in London. Enquiries from new buyers rose to the highest since 1999. 'There are tentative signs that the market is starting to pick up,' Jeremy Leaf, a spokesman for RICS, said in the statement today. 'We are unlikely to see significant improvement while money remains in short supply and the employment picture is uncertain.' The GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.5205 as of 8:58am, London Time.

The yen rose broadly on Tuesday to extend gains made the previous day as regional stocks fell after a slide on Wall Street, prompting investors to further reduce investments in risky assets. The dollar edged down against a basket of currencies towards Monday's four-month low but held firm versus the euro, with investors taking profits from gains in other riskier currencies that had been lifted by optimism about the U.S. banking system. The yen drew some support after news that China's exports in April fell more than expected, denting expectations that the worst of the contraction in trade flows triggered by the global financial crisis is moderating. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 97.60 as of 9:05am, London time.

Economic Calendar

Time (GMT) E Event Currency Period Previous Previous Significance
23:50 Current Account JPY Mar 0.67T 0.51T
12:30 Trade Balance CAD Mar 0.1B 0.5B ***
12:30 Trade Balance USD Mar -26.0B -29.3B ***
08:30 Manufacturing Production m/m GBP Mar -0.9% -0.8% ***
08:30 Trade Balance GBP Mar -7.3B -7.2B **
05:00 Leading Indicators m/m JPY Mar 75.0% 77.1%

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http://www.finotec.com/

Disclaimer: FINOTEC Tradings Market Commentaries are provided for informational purposes only. The information contained within these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and not intended as investment advice. FINOTEC Trading assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein.





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European Market Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | May 12 09 10:03 GMT |

European Equity markets shake off weak Chinese exports and lower Indian industrial production

ECONOMIC DATA

(IN) Indian March Industrial Production -2.3% v -0.7%e; largest decline in 16 years

(BE) Belgium Apr Unemployment Rate: % v 7.3% prior

(JP) Japan Apr Prelim Machine Tool Orders: -80.4% v -85.2% prior

(GE) German Apr Final CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e
(GE) German CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e
(GE) Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -8.1% v -8.2%e

(FR) Apr Bank of France Bus Sentiment: 75 v 75e
(FR) France March Central Govt Balance: -€43.7B v -€29.9B prior

(SP) Spain Mar House Transactions Y/Y: -24.3% v -38.6% prior

(CZ) Czech April CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.0%e
(CZ) Czech Apr Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 7.8%e
(CZ) Czech Mar Industrial Output Y/Y: -17.0% v -17.5%e

(HU) Hungarian Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 2.9%e

(NE) Dutch Mar Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v -2.2% prior; Y/Y: -12.1% v -12.6% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -19.5% v -27.2% prior

(SW) Swedish Apr CPI- Headline Rate M/M; 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e
(SW) Swedish Apr CPI - Underlying Inflation M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e; CPI Level: 299.3 v 299.4e

(UK) March Visible Trade Balance: -£6.6B v -£7.2Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£3.3B v -£4.2Be; Total Trade Balance: -£2.5B v -£3.0Be
(UK) DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: -13.6% v -13.0%e
(UK) Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -12.4% v -12.9%e
(UK) Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.1% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -12.9% v -14.0%e

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

In equities: Equity markets opened convincingly to the downside following bearish pre-market trading. In themes continuing through from yesterday, risk aversion conversations have made a strong comeback. WSJ stories indicating the potential risk in the European banking sector as compared to the US sector, based on the lack of a comparable 'stress tests' and the failure of European banks to raise capital to the extent seen in the US have added weight to Tier 1 financial names on all three exchanges. Disappointing earnings out of EAD's [EAD.FR], Q-Cells [QCE.GE], Fraport [FRA.GE] and comments regarding debt concerns out of VW [VOW.GE] added to the downside momentum in early equity trading. Better than expected April BRC retail numbers provided lightness to that sector, with Marks and Spencer [MKS.UK] trading higher, but gains remained localized. Bourses dropped to the -1% level by 3:15EST before making a bounce. Markets continued that upward movement with the CAC and DAX recovering all their losses and turning positive by 3:40EST. In that move, banking and financial names recovered, while automotive names in the CAC [UG.FR], [RNO.FR] followed strength out of Fiat [F.IT] in Milan and pushed higher. In the DAX, market chatter regarding Deutsche Telecom [DTE.GE] and continued strength following earnings out of Deutsche Bourse [DB1.GE] rallied that market. European bourses continued their enthusiasm through the first half of 4:00EST, then being aided by better than expected Industrial and Manufacturing data out of the UK past 4:30EST sent markets to their then session highs. Enthusiasm showed some waning past 4:45EST with a slow drift off those post UK data highs. Results in line out of Australia regarding its 2009 budget deficits and GDP forecasts provided little new momentum to European equity markets with a gradually selling continuing through the bourses. By 5:30 the FTSE and CAC had returned to effectively flat on the session with only the DAX holding on to wider gains.

In individual stocks: EAD's [EAD.FR] Reports Q1 Net €170.0M v €158.0Me, Rev €8.5B v €9.5Be, Backlog €413B v €400B q/q, Expects Airbus to capture up to 300 new gross orders in 2009. Revised industrial plans to complete A400M program could lead to substantial charges in H1 of 2009. || Babcock Intl [BAB.UK] Reports FY09 Op Profit £147.3M v £137Me, Rev £1.9B v £1.9Be, raises FY08 dividend 25% to 14.4p. Order book at £5.7B. Chairman: We anticipate increasing pressure for improved efficiency in public-sector spend will further increase the opportunities available to us. || VW [VOW.GE] Peich: Porsche group must lower debt burden before integrating with VW. CEO: Expect combined group to be world's largest automaker. VW-Porsche combination should not include 3rd party investors. Porsche becoming brand of VW is only 1 option open to the firm. See Fiat's moves to combine Chrysler and OPEL as 'unhealthy,' to fail globally. ||

Speakers: Australia's Swan released the details to the 2009 budget with the deficit to be A$57.6B (in line with press speculation). Swan saw GDP contracting by 0.5% in 2009-2010 period. Unemployment seen at 8.25 and rising toward 8.5% by 2011 || S&P stated that Australia's sovereign rating unaffected by budget details of higher deficit and higher debt issuance.

In Currencies: A degree of risk appetite resurfaced during the European morning as traders seemed impressed by US banks' ability to raise capital following the stress test results. Also contributing to the USD's and JPY's soft tone were lingering concerns over the revised US deficit projections issued by the US budget office on Monday. Despite some optimistic economic growth outlook, the Administration widened its deficit projections.

Dealers noting that Fed's Bernanke talked up USD presumably to help funding the massive budget deficits following the US budget office revisions.

GBP sentiment helped by its April RICS house price data. GBP/USD held the 1.5075 level for the second day in a row and probed back above the 1.52 handle during the morning. The production data also provided some upward momentum for the pound. GBP/USD tested the 1.5300 level and EUR/GBP cross dipped towards 0.8930 level during the morning.

Both CAD and AUD related pairs were higher in the session aided by higer energy prices and metals. NYMEX Jun crude futures tested $59.50 and Spot Gold rose back towards the $920/oz area. The AUD did retrace from session highs following the release of the 2009 budget details from Aussy Treasurer official Swan.

In Fixed Income: With equities and commodities catching a bid, a weaker USD and JPY, Government bonds have been offered in Europe this morning, completing the risk appetite scenario. Dealers noted that the belly bearishly leading the way in the session. The UK sold £2.2B in 2030 Gilts with strong results, and the Netherlands successfully sold €3.3B in 2012 DSL. For debt investors hungry for yield, Australian Government Bond markets are set to re-apprear in a big way with today's budget forecasting total issuance of A$60B in the upcoming fiscal year. ||U.K. government's latest gilt auction attractedsolid demand and the June Gilts recovered from session lows as a result. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.24 times, up from 1.37 at the previous auction of this bond. June Gilts near its best levels for the session at 119.00, but still off 11 ticks from Monday's close.

In Energy: IEA's Tanaka reiterated his view that it was unlikely to again cut demand forecast for crude further. Comments are in line with his April 25th view. || Iran first nuclear power plant to commence generating electricity by October according to the Iranian press reports. Etemaad reports the plant in the southern city of Bushehr will start producing power by Oct. 23rd and cites Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, head of the Iran's Atomic Energy Organization. Article noted that Iran started test operations at the 1,000-megawatt plant in late February. Tests at the Russian-built site were expected to last between four and seven months ||

NOTES

China exports decline by larger amount expected. India Mar Industrial production declines by its largest amount in 16 years.

Bank of America raises funds by selling stake in China Construction Bank

Reportedly EU to stress test European banking system by September and tests reportedly not to test individual banks, but rather the systemic nature of system

Equity markets seem to be the main driver in the session with commodities and currencies following their lead.

Looking Ahead:

7:00 (SA) South African Mar Manufacturing Production: M/M: % v -0.6%e; Y/Y: % v -12.3%e

8:20 (US) Fed's Lockhart to speak at conference in Atlanta

8:30 (CA) Canadian March International Merchandise Trade: C$0.5B expected v C$0.1B prior

8:30 (US) March Trade Balance (last -$26B)

8:30 (US) Fed;'s Rosengen to speak in Atlanta

8:30 (EU) ECB's Tumpell-Gugerell to speak in Brussels

10:00 (US) May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 51.0 expected v 49.1 prior

11:00 (EU) ECB's Weber to speak in Munich

11:00 (US) NY Fed to repurchase T-Notes maturing between 05/31/2012 - 08/31/2013

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

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Comments Help Risk Appitite

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | May 12 09 10:41 GMT |

News and Events:

The EUR continues to be helped by recent risk-appetite, supported by equity market rallies and declining VIX and growing credibility to the 'green shoots' theory. In addition, as the market discounts the probability of a 'black swan' event in the financial sector, the flight to safety trades becomes less relevant. With focus being put back on the Fed's massively bloated balance sheet, timing of recovery and clean break of 200d ma, we expect traders are looking to build long position in the EUR. Comments by Bernanke and Trichet have added to the growing optimism surrounding the global recovery. Bernanke attempted to talk up the USD yesterday, stating that 'the USD will be strong because the US economy is strong'. On the comment both EUR and GBP sold off dropping to intraday lows but then quickly recovering, as trader focused/ believing the 'US economy is strong portion' of more than the rational of a strong USD. In addition, Bernanke acknowledged the market's uncertainty with the bank stress test results, yet argued that overall the tests serve a significant purpose of reducing uncertainty in the markets and boosting confidence in the financial system.

Jean-Claude Trichet commented yesterday that the global downturn had bottomed with some large economies already on the path to recovery. Overnight, UK released the RICS house price balance, which showed the slowest decline since Jan 2008 at -59.9 vs last month's reading of -72.1. UK BRC retail sales monitor was also positive at 4.6 % y/y, the largest jump since April 2006. With liquidity conditions improving in Sterling and positive economic readings, the GBP traded up to 1.5294 against the USD. With risk appetite improving, risk-correlated assets have seen a large rally in the past few weeks and look to continue to outperform. Specifically, we see EM Asia as a beneficiary, as a large improvement in terms of trade will provide the currencies with a tangible fundamental rational for buying.

Speaking of Asia, China's exports fell on an annual basis by much more than we and the market expected, down -22.6% y/y in April vs. -15.3% exp. after -17.1% in March. After the initial disappointment a closer look into the details suggests that the underlying momentum is still supportive of the global recovery.

Advanced Currency Markets - Forex Issues and Risks

Today Key Issues:

  • 08:30 GBP Trade Balance £bn mar -7.2 exp,-7.3 prior
  • 08:30 GBP Industrial Production mar -0.8,-12.8 exp, -1.0,-12.5 prior
  • 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Output mar -0.9,-14.0 exp, -0.9,13.8 prior
  • 11:00 ZAR Manuf. Production mar -15.0 prior
  • 12:30 CAD Trade Balance C$ 0.5 exp,0.1 prior
  • 12:30 USD Trade Balance $bn -29.4 exp, -26.0 prior
  • 18:00 USD Budget Balance $bn apr -63.0 exp, 159.3 prior

The Risk Today:

EurUsd Constructive under immediate resistance (Piercing line on daily chart) at 1.3669 (Yesterday's high), consolidation subsides as we head higher, we continue to aim for 1.3740 area, a break past this level would set our sights on 1.3971 within the week. The bias really is for the upside here as the retracement only managed a 38.20% counter. On the downside 1.3557 serves as initial support but real test for bearish bias comes at 1.3507.

GbpUsd dollar weakness continues to shine through as bullish channel persists. Strong double top resistance at 1.5246, decisive push past this level would set sights on 1.5456 via 1.5352 (100% move after 50% retracement). On the downside 1.5180 (50% retracement) holds as soft support for a constructive bearish reversal with a floor on today's moves at 1.5074.

UsdJpy Yen gained against the dollar yesterday as other pairs retraced. We are currently trading particular range, with a double top head and shoulders about to confirm, initial resistance at 97.99 proves crucial, a push past would allow for 98.35 and 99.56 (50% and 100% respectively). A failure to break 98.00 with enough panache would focus morning lows of 97.14 – via 96.35.

UsdChf pair is trading a perfect mirror image to the EURUSD pair, EURCHF holding steady in 1.5080 – 1.5160 range with a bias for the downside would indicate USDCHF is set for further declines (strong recommendation for 3 graph comparison). Yesterday's support at 1.1022 was respected in early hours, we are set to test it again, eyes on 1.0670 (for monthly forecast) via 1.0960. On the upside (while a significant move up is countered by clear rounded top culminating at 1.1109) we see resistance at 1.1133 (38.20%) then 50.00% level at 1.1167.

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
1.3971
1.5456
99.56
1.1167
1.3741
1.5352
98.35
1.1133
1.3669
1.5300
97.99
1.1109
1.3658
1.5277
97.68
1.1048
1.3557
1.5186
97.14
1.1022
1.3507
1.5117
96.35
1.1096
1.3469
1.5074
95.64
1.0670
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

ACM FOREX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.





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London Session Recap

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Forex.com | May 12 09 10:43 GMT |

Strong buying pressure chased cable all the way to the USD1.5300 level this morning, from an open in the 1.5100 area and EUR/GBP tested the water below the EUR/GBP 0.8940 level. Buyers' appetite for sterling was increased by a round of better than expected UK economic data. The overnight publication of the BRC April retail sales monitor reported a stunning 4.6% y/y increase - though like the recently published CBI retail survey, some of this strength may be related to the timing of the Easter break. On the heels of this data was an improvement in the RICS house price balance. However, like most of the rest of recent housing market data, this can only be construed as indicating a levelling off in the downturn. This morning, UK trade and production data for March all came in better than expected. While the -0.6% m/m fall in total production does not represent overly good news, the improvement from the -1.0% m/m decline in Feb is consistent with the idea that the UK economy may have reached an inflexion point. The total UK trade balance registered a deficit of -GBP2.5 bln in Mar, continuing the improvement in the trend in evidence since July 2008. The next key focus for the UK market will be the publication of the BoE's Inflation Report tomorrow. Insofar as the Bank last week announced an extension of its asset buying plan it seems likely that a dovish tone on the economy will be projected tomorrow suggesting that the pound may be inclined to pare its gains into the release.

Bernanke chose to talk up the USD overnight. The Fed Chairman reported that the Fed will contribute to a strong USD. Bernanke also remarked that the banks now appear to have better access to private capital. In the recent spirit of the risk trade, these latter comments are consistent with a move out of USDs. EUR/USD edged progressively higher during early London hours; moving back towards EUR/USD1.3675. However, in the past hour USD buyers have emerged. Bernanke's comments on the banks have also softened sentiment in stock markets.

The Australian Treasurer has forecast a record budget deficit of AUD53.1 bln during today's budget speech. The news is not significantly different from market forecasts; although this morning's upside momentum in the AUD has been hindered and AUD/USD is giving back some of its gains. The AUD had maintained a softer tone overnight in Asia on concerns over the budget speech.

The publication of the US trade report will be a focus this afternoon. In view of gains in oil prices, the market is expecting the deficit to deteriorate in March to -USD29.0 bln. A weaker number combined with a positive open in US stocks could lend EUR/USD renewed support.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (US Session). Prior, Expected

5/12/2009 12:30 CA Int'l Merchandise Trade MAR 0.1B 0.5B
5/12/2009 12:30 US Trade Balance MAR -$26.0B -$29.2B
5/12/2009 12:30 EC ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell Speaks in Brussels 12-May

5/12/2009 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism MAY 49.1 - -
5/12/2009 15:00 EC ECB's Weber Holds Speech at Conference in Munich 12-May

5/12/2009 21:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence 10-May -43 - -

Forex.com
http://www.forex.com

DISCLAIMER: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase of sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.





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