Economic Calendar

Thursday, February 25, 2010

FX Thoughts for the Day

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services | Feb 25 10 12:24 GMT |

USD-CHF @ 1.0841/45...21-Month-MA Resistance holding

R: 1.0886 / 1.0925-40 / 1.0980
S: 1.0800 / 1.0750-30 / 1.0700

Swiss is continuing to trade lower below the 21-Month-MA Resistance (currently at 1.0886). Immediate Support is seen at 1.08 which we expect to hold in the US session today. We continue to remain bullish for a rise towards 1.0950 on a break above the 21-Month-MA Resistance in the coming days.

On the other hand, a strong break below the immediate Support at 1.08 might see 1.0730-00 once again in the US session today.

Limit Buy Order:

Buy USD 10K at 1.0725, SL 1.0635, TP 1.0920

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.5305/09...Bearish for 1.5050, if below 1.5260

R: 1.5409 / 1.5444 / 1.5510
S: 1.5270-60 / 1.5234 / 1.5050

The Cable has spiked below the Support at 1.5283 to record a low of 1.5271 so far and doesn not seem to be in a great mood to go for consolidation. The bears have pounced once again and this time the next prominent closest target is near 1.50. The pair is likely to find some Support near 1.50 and bounce towards 1.53 once again. If however, it leaves it for the next week and the pair takes Support near 1.5270 itself, it may rise a little towards 1.54-1.55 over the rest of the week.

One may want to sell on rallies above 1.54 or sell on stop loss basis below 1.5250.

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.8896/99...Resistance in 0.8950-70 region

R: 0.8925 / 0.8950-70 / 0.9020
S: 0.8860 / 0.8820-00 / 0.8730

Aussie has bounced back slightly from the day's low of 0.8860 and is now trading just below 0.89. The 21-DMA (currently at 0.8868) is providing Support for the pair over the last once week. However, the 8-DMA (0.8957) is Resisting the upmove for the last couple of days which is retaining the downside pressure. As mentioned earlier, there are good chances of revisiting the significant Support at 200-DMA (0.8668) in the coming days. Note that this 200-DMA is a very significant Support level to watch for on the downside.

On the upside, Resistance is seen in 0.8950-70 region which is expected to hold in the US session today. The projected Max-High and Max-Low for the day is 0.8962 and 0.8850 respectively.

Limit Sell Order:

Sell AUD 10K at 0.8960, SL 0.9050, TP Open

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.





Read more...

FX Thoughts for the Day

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services | Feb 25 10 12:24 GMT |

USD-CHF @ 1.0841/45...21-Month-MA Resistance holding

R: 1.0886 / 1.0925-40 / 1.0980
S: 1.0800 / 1.0750-30 / 1.0700

Swiss is continuing to trade lower below the 21-Month-MA Resistance (currently at 1.0886). Immediate Support is seen at 1.08 which we expect to hold in the US session today. We continue to remain bullish for a rise towards 1.0950 on a break above the 21-Month-MA Resistance in the coming days.

On the other hand, a strong break below the immediate Support at 1.08 might see 1.0730-00 once again in the US session today.

Limit Buy Order:

Buy USD 10K at 1.0725, SL 1.0635, TP 1.0920

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.5305/09...Bearish for 1.5050, if below 1.5260

R: 1.5409 / 1.5444 / 1.5510
S: 1.5270-60 / 1.5234 / 1.5050

The Cable has spiked below the Support at 1.5283 to record a low of 1.5271 so far and doesn not seem to be in a great mood to go for consolidation. The bears have pounced once again and this time the next prominent closest target is near 1.50. The pair is likely to find some Support near 1.50 and bounce towards 1.53 once again. If however, it leaves it for the next week and the pair takes Support near 1.5270 itself, it may rise a little towards 1.54-1.55 over the rest of the week.

One may want to sell on rallies above 1.54 or sell on stop loss basis below 1.5250.

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.8896/99...Resistance in 0.8950-70 region

R: 0.8925 / 0.8950-70 / 0.9020
S: 0.8860 / 0.8820-00 / 0.8730

Aussie has bounced back slightly from the day's low of 0.8860 and is now trading just below 0.89. The 21-DMA (currently at 0.8868) is providing Support for the pair over the last once week. However, the 8-DMA (0.8957) is Resisting the upmove for the last couple of days which is retaining the downside pressure. As mentioned earlier, there are good chances of revisiting the significant Support at 200-DMA (0.8668) in the coming days. Note that this 200-DMA is a very significant Support level to watch for on the downside.

On the upside, Resistance is seen in 0.8950-70 region which is expected to hold in the US session today. The projected Max-High and Max-Low for the day is 0.8962 and 0.8850 respectively.

Limit Sell Order:

Sell AUD 10K at 0.8960, SL 0.9050, TP Open

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.





Read more...

Out with Flux, in with Risk Aversion

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Interactive Brokers | Feb 25 10 13:52 GMT |

Unsurprising though it may be, risk aversion kicked in a notch overnight as news of a potential downgrade within a month by Standard & Poors for Greece. Such a move would leave its long-term debt rating on the border of junk status increasing pressure on the government already finding the headwinds pretty tough. The euro slipped on this news along with confirmation from Moody’s that it too might further downgrade the sovereign nation in the event that it deviates from its fiscal plan. Selling the euro in response to such mind-boggling simplicities has created a nasty odor in the markets today with equity prices falling and perceived riskier currencies falling back.

Euro - Weakness in the euro was most pronounced against the yen, where the unit fell to ¥120.24. The euro has not traded below ¥120 in exactly a year and today’s threatened break down in the pair known for its ability to dictate risk appetite is reminiscent of a meltdown in January last year as markets braced for the (equity market) lows that were put into place during early March. Against the dollar today the euro has rebounded off a double-bottom at $1.3450 but continues to demand dealers’ attention at $1.3476.

The euro’s weakness follows a successful national civil servants strike on Wednesday in Greece with public workers staging antireform demonstrations. According to people familiar with the matter, the demonstration delayed the government’s announcement of a further package of fiscal austerity measures said to be as large as €2.5 billion. On this basis the government will issue a €5 billion 10-year bond to help it raise €22 billion before €22 billion worth of bond maturities before the end of April. The government has already raised €13 billion and has a full year funding total of €54 billion.

While the currency markets are getting hot under the collar today it appears that the government of Greece is working hard in coming up with a solution. However, investor attention is also being diverted towards the possibly more problematic escalation of economic crisis in Spain where a generous social safety net is part of the problem crippling Spanish finances. Today’s WSJ carries an in-depth analysis of the situation and tosses out the implication of a withdrawal from the monetary union by Spain. Increasingly dire projections for the euro are surfacing from global analysts over coming months.

U.S. Dollar - The renaissance of European fiscal headwinds creates an exit from the flux I described earlier in the week and adds impetus to the rising dollar on risk aversion. In his testimony to Congress Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described a nascent U.S. recovery and one that remained in need of ultra-low interest rates for an extended period. The wording he chose had the ability to unwind some demand for the dollar, which had earlier risen on the prospect for higher interest rates sooner rather than later.

Overall his testimony was tepid and taught us relatively little with stock traders reversing a negative stance and warming to the prospect of ongoing easy money conditions that may aid corporate profits.

Japanese yen - Today’s boost to risk aversion caused by rising Greek yields and credit insurance has taken a global toll. The Japanese yen continues to steal back losses incurred when investors assured themselves that short-term U.S. rates were likely hitched to the discount rate. The yen rose per dollar to ¥89.47 and strengthened to ¥137.00 against the British pound.

Aussie dollar - The inability of the Australian dollar to make headway when conditions look optimal is frustrating investors wanting to see higher peaks against the dollar. While bulls can cite a variety of factors to support the Aussie unit, the mere resurgence of risk aversion with an epicenter in Athens is enough to turn investors into sellers as though a fault line would show up in Sydney. The Aussie is weaker at 88.79 U.S. cents today and is weaker 1.5% against the Japanese yen at ¥79.36. It was only earlier this week that lower prospects for rising global interest rates saw investors flock to the Aussie dollar on the grounds that it would maintain its yield advantage for longer against the U.S. dollar. Aussie weakness continues to leave investors scratching their heads today with a further highly likely quarter point interest rate increase to be announced when the RBA concludes its meeting on Tuesday.

Canadian dollar - With the stronger greenback comes weakness in gold prices and a negative tone in the energy patch, where crude oil prices are $1.11 lower at $78.90. Gold prices are hovering above a two-week low, which appears to be weighing pretty heavily on the Canadian dollar, which felt the weight of a stronger greenback this morning as it slipped a half penny to 94.21 U.S. cents.

British pound - The pound still appears to be in need of some first aid as it stumbles against the dollar to $1.5281 this morning. At this point sterling is at its weakest since May of last year. Dealers continue to trade the pound from the short side given the central bank’s recent comments that growth remains weak and susceptible to downside risks.

Andrew Wilkinson
Senior Market Analyst

Interactive Brokers

Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither Interactive Brokers LLC nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither IB nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.






Read more...

Risk Appetite Takes a Hit - Greek Crisis Continues

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MG Financial Group | Feb 25 10 14:02 GMT |

Asian markets were generally down today on risk aversion as the Greek sovereign debt crisis once again takes center stage. Risk appetite was subdued after both Moody's and S&P's stated that they may downgrade Greece's credit rating, rekindling fears of a default from the distressed nation. Strikes rippled through Athens yesterday as unions protested the government's austerity measures. The yen advanced against all the majors as investors sought safe haven currencies, pushing EUR/JPY to a one year low testing 120.21 early in London trade. The yen surged 1% vs. the dollar before bouncing off the S3 daily pivot at 89.23. USD/JPY continues to consolidate into a wedge formation with the lower bound trend line, dating back to Dec 9th, currently sitting at the 89 handle. Additional support levels appear at the S1 monthly pivot at 88.60 and lower at 87.90. The dollar has a chance to gain its footing with a break of the 89.90. Higher resistance rest at 90.70 followed by 91.20 and the 92 figure.

Euro Slides

The euro was softer today having tested 1.3450 before settling just below the 1.35 handle. Markets had rallied early on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before Congress yesterday, launching the euro to 1.3624. However, the single currency quickly relinquished all its gains, falling more than 1.25% by mid-day in the Asian session. Bernanke assured market participants that rates would remain "exceptionally low for an extended period," a statement investors were expecting. Although US markets closed to the upside, talks of the Greek credit downgrade weighed heavily on markets, with both Asian and European markets in the red half way through the trading day in London. The euro's troubles are far from over as debates escalate as to whether a bailout would even be able to save the regions debt crisis, revealing deeper, more fundamental problems with the eurozone experiment. The single currency remains under heavy pressure as it maintains the downward channel dating back to Dec 3rd. Short-term support rests at 1.3430 with targets at 1.3385 and 13305. The euro has a chance of redemption with a clean break of the 1.35 handle. Resistance levels peek at 1.3550 and higher at 1.3665.

Cable on the Defensive

The pound had its 3rd straight day of declines today, sliding to the S2 weekly pivot at 1.5267 at 9:00am in London today. The pound has been hard hit since Bank of England Governor Mervyn King 's, comments on Tuesday, hinting that additional quantitative easing measures may be needed to prevent the economy from falling back into recession. Having broken through the lower bound of the downward channel dating back to Oct 26th, cable's downside momentum picks up steam with a break of the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the Jan 19th and Feb 17th highs, using the Feb 5th trough, at 1.5240. Additional support appears at 1.5070 followed by 1.4884 and 1.4718. Supply sits at 1.5460 with further resistance at 1.5540 and 1.5720.

Today, the economic calendar includes reports from the US on Jan durable goods, weekly jobless claims, and Kentucky Fed manufacturing with jobless claims expected to fall some 13k claims, and durable goods expected to rise to 1.5% from 0.3% in Dec. Tomorrow's schedule is packed with data with Japan reporting on CPI, industrial production, housing starts, and construction orders. Consumer confidence from the UK is expected to hold steady at -17 while GDP is seen to strengthen marginally. Also tomorrow is data on UK exports/imports, as well as CPI from the Eurozone.

AC Markets
http://www.ac-markets.com

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.





Read more...

Copper Drops in N.Y. on Concern Growth May Cool, Sapping Demand

By Ted Bunker

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices fell in New York on concern that Greece’s widening budget deficit may signal a threat to economic growth, reducing demand for the metal used in pipes and wires.

Copper futures for May delivery slid 5.4 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $3.1995 a pound at 8:13 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit. Greek debt may be downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s within a few months, the rating companies said today, driving borrowing costs higher and weakening the euro.





Read more...

Gold Drops to Two-Week Low in New York as Dollar Saps Demand

By Nicholas Larkin and Kim Kyoungwha

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell to the lowest price in almost two weeks in New York as a stronger dollar eroded demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

The dollar neared a nine-month high against the euro as concern that Greece’s credit rating may be lowered cut demand for assets denominated in the single European currency. Gold, down for a fourth day, usually moves inversely to the dollar.

The “lower gold price is dictated by the weakness in the euro,” said Bayram Dincer, a commodity analyst at LGT Capital Management in Pfaeffikon, Switzerland. “Short term, higher risk aversion will not benefit gold, as this risk premium is already incorporated in the gold price.”

Gold futures for April delivery fell as much as $8.70, or 0.8 percent, to $1,088.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit, the lowest intraday price since Feb. 12. The metal was at $1,092.90 at 8:33 a.m. local time. Gold for immediate delivery in London was 0.5 percent lower at $1,092.07.

The metal slipped to $1,092.75 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $1,103 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing. Spot prices are 11 percent below a record $1,226.56 set on Dec. 3.

The euro has slumped as European finance ministers this month put more pressure on Greece to rein in its deficit while refusing to specify potential aid measures. That disappointed investors who were looking for details on assistance.

‘Flood Gates’

“Investor money looking for safe assets should be the factor” driving gold lower, said Tetsuya Yoshii, vice president for derivative products with Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. Bullion “might have a $20 to $40 correction on the downside,” he said.

Germany has denied that concrete plans exist to aid Greece. Granting assistance would “open the flood gates” for other euro-area nations with soaring deficits, former European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said yesterday.

The euro slipped against the dollar today after Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service said Greece faces further downgrades as early as next month as it copes with the European Union’s biggest budget deficit. Unions took to the streets of Athens and police fired tear gas and clashed with demonstrators.

Gold is little changed this year after rising 24 percent in 2009 as governments boosted spending and central banks kept interest rates low to pull economies out of the longest recession since World War II. The U.S. economy needs low borrowing costs to feed demand in its “nascent” recovery, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday.

SPDR Holdings

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, were unchanged at 1,106.99 metric tons yesterday, according to the company’s Web site.

Investment demand for commodities, especially metals, may wane in the next three months on concern that the global economic recovery might be slower than expected, according to Allianz Investment Management.

“There could be a lot of unwinding” of bets that raw materials will advance, Nikhil Srinivasan, who oversees about $30 billion of assets as Allianz’s chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East, said in an interview yesterday. “That will keep them from having a strong year.”

Silver for May delivery in New York fell 1.2 percent to $15.78 an ounce. Platinum for April delivery added 0.6 percent to $1,516 an ounce. Palladium for June delivery was 1 percent lower at $420.05 an ounce.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at kkim19@bloomberg.net; Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Yen Rises as Greek Downgrade Concern Boosts Demand for Safety

By Inyoung Hwang and Anchalee Worrachate

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The yen climbed to a one-year high against the euro as investors sought the safest currencies amid concern Greece’s credit rating will be lowered and its woes will spread to other nations in the currency group.

The yen advanced against all 16 major counterparts after Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service said Greece faces further downgrades as early as next month amid Prime Minister George Papandreou’s struggle to cut the European Union’s largest budget deficit. The pound slid to a nine-month low against the dollar as investors bet the Bank of England will need to keep interest rates near record-low levels this year.

“The market is concerned Greece is still not behind us and could have an impact on global growth,” said Jens Nordvig, a managing director of currency research in New York at Nomura International Plc. “Unless we see more positive economic data points, there’ll be doubt that underlining growth momentum is picking up.”

The yen appreciated 1.8 percent to 119.90 per euro at 8:33 in New York from 122.03 yen yesterday. That’s the first time the currency has fallen below the 120 yen level since Feb. 24, 2009. The dollar climbed to $1.5271 per British pound, the strongest level since May 18, from $1.5408.

The euro declined to $1.3478 from $1.3538. It touched $1.3444 on Feb. 19, the lowest since May 18. The European currency has fallen 2.8 percent versus the dollar in February, heading for a third monthly loss, its longest stretch since November 2008.

Euro Carry Trades

The dollar weakened against the yen as a government report showed U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased last week.

Initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 to 496,000 in the week ended Feb. 20, the Labor Department said. The median estimate of 43 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for news claims to fall to 460,000. The dollar declined 1.2 percent to 89.07 yen, from 90.15.

The euro will become a favorite funding currency for carry trades as Greece’s crisis weighs on regional interest rates, Deutsche Bank AG said. The three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for euro loans sank below 0.6 percent for the first time last week, down from more than 5 percent after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008.

“Greece’s crisis has highlighted political and structural weakness in the euro zone,” said Koji Fukaya, a senior currency strategist for Deutsche Bank in Tokyo. “First, it remains unclear whether any aid will be available. And even if any rescue plan comes out, it will take time to see if it’d work.”

The currency may slump further to $1.25, Fukaya said, a level last seen in March 2009.

Pound’s Slide

In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with relatively low borrowing costs and invest in another with higher interest rates, increasing sales of the borrowed currency.

Sterling also fell against 13 of its 16 most-traded peers as concern about the potential downgrades of Greek debt stirred concern Britain may struggle to tackle its own record deficit.

Bruce Stout, who runs Aberdeen Asset Management Plc’s Murray International Trust, said he’s concerned Britain’s widening debt gap will hamper economic growth.

“Sterling is being seen in the risk bucket and risk is off the agenda right now,” said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. Investors are taking bets on rate hikes “off the table,” he said.

The pound may fall to $1.50, should it drop below $1.5275, which would be a 50 percent retracement of its advance from last year’s low to its high, Stretch said, citing Fibonacci numbers.

The U.K. currency weakened 0.4 percent to 88.19 pence per euro and 1.7 percent versus the yen, to 136.49.

Rating Downgrade

The cost of protecting against default on Greek government bonds increased 10 basis points to 392, the highest in more than two weeks, according to CMA DataVision prices.

“We believe that a further downgrade of Greece of one to two notches is possible within a month,” S&P analysts led by Marko Mrsnik in London said in a statement late yesterday. Pierre Cailleteau, managing director of sovereign risk at Moody’s, said in Tokyo today Greece faces a downgrade of “a couple of notches” within a few months.

S&P, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece’s credit rating in December as its deficit approached 13 percent of gross domestic product. Germany has denied that there are concrete plans to aid Greece, and former European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said yesterday granting assistance would “open the flood gates” for other euro-area nations with soaring deficits.

Moody’s rating of Greece is the sixth highest, two notches above the BBB+ held by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings.

If Moody’s cuts its credit rating to the same level as the other major ratings companies it could exacerbate Greece’s financial distress at the end of this year, when the European Central Bank is due to revert to old collateral rules that were loosened during the global recession. Greek government bonds would then no longer be eligible as collateral at the ECB, making it more difficult for the nation to borrow.


To contact the reporters on this story:
Inyoung Hwang in New York at
ihwang7@bloomberg.net;
Anchalee Worrachate in London at
aworrachate@bloomberg.net






Read more...

U.K. Pound Falls to 9-Month Low Versus Dollar on Debt Concerns

By Paul Dobson

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The pound slid to a nine-month low against the dollar as ratings companies said they may downgrade Greece’s debt, stirring concern Britain may struggle to tackle its own record deficit.

Sterling fell against 14 of its 16 most-traded peers as investors added to bets the Bank of England will need to keep interest rates near record-low levels this year. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service said Greece, which has the European Union’s largest budget deficit, faces downgrades as early as next month. At more than 12 percent of gross domestic product, the U.K. deficit is on a par with that of Greece.

“Sterling is being seen in the risk bucket and risk is off the agenda right now,” said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. Investors are taking bets on rate hikes “off the table,” he said.

The pound fell as much as 0.9 percent to $1.5273, the lowest level since May 18, and was at $1.5283 as of 12:25 p.m. in London. The U.K. currency weakened 0.4 percent to 88.25 pence per euro.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is selling a record amount of debt to finance stimulus measures that were introduced to help the economy recover from the longest recession on record. The government in December increased its planned gilt sales for the fiscal year that will end in March to a record 225.1 billion pounds from the 220 billion pounds announced in April.

Bruce Stout, who runs Aberdeen Asset Management Plc’s Murray International Trust, said he’s concerned Britain’s widening debt gap will hamper economic growth.

‘Horrible Thing’

“We’re very, very aware of the risk the U.K. is carrying,” Stout said. “Debt is a horrible thing. Sterling is a very vulnerable currency.”

The pounds may fall below parity with the euro and drop to $1.05 if the government tackles the country’s debt burden too early, UBS AG said yesterday.

“If the next government was to prematurely curb the fiscal deficit after the elections, without the economy reaching a surer footing, the consequences for sterling, financial markets and public confidence would be grave,” Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS in Singapore, said in a research note.

While the opposition Conservatives, who have called for government spending cuts to start this year, are still ahead of the ruling Labour Party in opinion polls, the gap has narrowed. A poll by YouGov Plc in the Sunday Times newspaper showed the Conservative lead over Labour at its narrowest since December 2008.

‘Big Psychological Mark’

The pound may fall to $1.50, should it drop below $1.5275, which would be a 50 percent retracement of its advance from last year’s low to its high, Stretch said, citing so-called Fibonacci numbers.

“That’s the path of least resistance,” he said. “The big psychological mark of $1.50 is close at hand.”

U.K. government bonds rose after a government report showed business investment fell 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with analyst estimates for a 0.1 percent gain.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt dropped 3 basis points to 4.04 percent. The yield on the short-sterling futures contract expiring in December fell 4 basis points to 1.12 percent as investors added to bets interest rates will stay lower for longer.

The U.K. sold 7.5 billion pounds of gilts this week.

The rally in gilts “is down to the Greek story, which has lifted risk aversion,” said Jason Simpson, an interest-rate strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London. “We’ve got past this week’s supply and gilts have bounced quite nicely.’

To contact the reporters on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net; Keith Jenkins in London at Kjenkins3@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Swiss Stocks Fluctuate; Swisscom Declines, Roche Advances

By Daniela Silberstein

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Swiss stocks swung between gains and losses as Moody’s Investors Service followed Standard & Poor’s in warning Greece’s debt rating may be cut, overshadowing gains by drugmakers.

Swisscom AG, the country’s biggest telephone company, fell for a fourth day. Roche Holding AG advanced 0.5 percent after the drugmaker’s Avastin met its main goal in a study for ovarian cancer.

The benchmark Swiss Market Index, a gauge of the biggest and most actively traded companies, gained 3.1, or less than 0.1 percent, to 6,691.05 at 9:49 a.m. in Zurich. The broader Swiss Performance Index was little changed at 5,742.81.

Greece’s sovereign debt rating may be cut within months unless the country meets the objectives of its fiscal deficit reduction plan, Moody’s said today. If Moody’s cuts its credit rating to the same level as the other major ratings companies, Greek government bonds would no longer be eligible as collateral at the European Central Bank, making it more difficult for the nation to borrow.

Standard & Poor’s said yesterday it may lower Greece’s credit rating by the end of March.

Swisscom dropped 1 percent to 367.9 Swiss francs. Switzerland’s largest telephone company’s Italian unit, Fastweb SpA, was downgraded to “underweight” from “buy” at Banca Leonardo. Swisscom shares have dropped 3.2 percent this week so far after an announcement that Fastweb’s founder and chief executive are under tax fraud investigation.

Roche

Roche advanced 0.5 percent to 180.3 francs. The world’s biggest maker of cancer medicines said its Avastin tumor drug kept ovarian cancer at bay in a clinical trial.

“This is a positive catalyst for Roche and further supports the Avastin franchise,” Silvia Schanz, an analyst at Bank Vontobel AG in Zurich, wrote in a note.

Allreal Holding AG dropped 0.6 percent to 124.9 francs. The Swiss property company said full-year profit before revaluation effects dropped to 88.6 million francs ($81.5 million) from 90.7 million francs a year earlier.

Micronas Semiconductor Holding AG slid 7.3 percent to 4.05 francs. The company in a restructuring to concentrate on the automotive sector said full-year sales fell to 241.2 million francs.

BKW FMB Energie

BKW FMB Energie AG increased 0.8 percent to 79 francs. The utility owned by the canton of Bern said full-year profit rose to 298 million francs from 139 million francs a year earlier.

Rieter Holding AG climbed 3.8 percent to 264.5 francs. The world’s biggest maker of staple-fiber spinning machines was rated “outperform” in new coverage at Credit Suisse Group AG.

Sulzer AG advanced 1 percent to 95.75 francs. The world’s second-biggest maker of pumps said full-year net income fell 16.3 percent to 270.4 million francs.

Vontobel Holding AG gained 1.1 percent to 32.6 francs. The bank that specializes in derivatives said full-year profit increased 23 percent to 138.9 million francs on higher trading income.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

U.K. Stocks Extend Decline After U.S. Economic Reports

By David Merritt

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks extended declines after a report showed the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly increased last week.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index fell 0.7 percent to 5,304.68 ar 1:35 p.m. in London.

A separate report showed orders for U.S. durable goods rose more than forecast in January, boosted by a surge in bookings for commercial aircraft that masked a decline in demand for some business equipment.





Read more...

European Stocks Decline; Asian Shares, U.S. Futures Retreat

By Adria Cimino

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks slipped as concern that Moody’s Investors Service may cut Greece’s debt rating overshadowed better-than-expected earnings from Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and France Telecom SA. Asian stocks and U.S. index futures fell.

Xstrata Plc, the largest exporter of coal used for power, led basic-resources shares lower as metals prices fell. RWE AG slid 1.7 percent after Germany’s second-biggest utility cut its earnings growth forecast. RBS, Britain’s largest government- controlled lender, and France Telecom, the country’s biggest phone company, climbed more than 2.5 percent.

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.3 percent to 246.41 at 1:02 p.m. in London. The benchmark gauge has retreated 5.3 percent from this year’s high on Jan. 19 amid concern over budget deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal and as China moved to restrict lending and stop its economy from overheating. The measure has still rallied 56 percent since March last year.

“Any new element linked to Greece can have an impact on market sentiment and the outlook for growth,” said Guillaume Duchesne, a Luxembourg-based equity strategist at Fortis Private Banking, which oversees about $117 billion. “It’s a problem, especially in light of the mixed economic data that we’ve seen. Earnings are an element of support for the market. We’re very satisfied with the results.”

Greek Rating

Greece’s ASE Index slid 1.8 percent, the most among 18 western European markets, after Moody’s said the nation’s sovereign debt rating may be cut within months unless it meets the objectives of its deficit reduction plan. If Moody’s reduces its credit rating to the same level as the other major ratings companies, Greek government bonds would no longer be eligible as collateral at the European Central Bank, making it more difficult for the country to borrow.

Yesterday, after the close of Greek trading though while other European markets were still open, Standard & Poor’s said it may lower Greece’s credit rating again by the end of March as a weak economy and political opposition threaten the country’s ability to cut the European Union’s largest budget deficit.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index slid 0.6 percent before reports on durable-goods orders and jobless claims. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8 percent, a second day of losses.

European Confidence

European confidence in the economic outlook unexpectedly worsened in February after the euro region’s recovery almost stalled in the fourth quarter, according to the European Commission’s index of executive and consumer sentiment. The region’s economic recovery may fail to gather strength for most of 2010 as governments phase out stimulus measures and domestic demand remains “subdued,” the Commission said today in its semi- annual economic forecasts.

Xstrata sank 3.4 percent to 1,014.5 pence. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-biggest mining company, lost 2.6 percent to 3,274 pence. Copper, lead and nickel were among metals falling in London.

RWE slid 1.7 percent to 62.25 euros. The company said recurrent net income, which is used to calculate its dividend, will grow by an average of about 5 percent a year in the four years through 2012, down from an earlier target of about 10 percent.

RBS surged 6.6 percent to 38.53 pence, the largest gain in more than three weeks. The bank reported a narrower-than- expected full-year net loss and said impairments for bad loans are likely to have peaked.

France Telecom

France Telecom climbed 2.6 percent to 17.28 euros, the biggest intraday gain in more than three months. The company said full-year adjusted net income declined to 4.85 billion euros ($6.5 billion), beating the average analyst estimate of 4.6 billion euros.

Piraeus Bank SA lost 7.5 percent to 5.64 euros, leading Greek banks lower. The country’s fourth-biggest lender reported its lowest annual profit in five years after impairment losses increased amid mounting concern about Greece’s economic slump and the size of its budget deficit.

National Bank of Greece SA, the nation’s largest lender, fell 4 percent to 13.35 euros and EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA, the second-largest, slid 5 percent to 5.55 euros.

Hays Plc sank 9 percent to 103.1 pence, the largest intraday slide in more than two months, after the U.K.’s biggest recruitment company reported first-half profit that missed analysts’ estimates.

BAT, Tenaris

British American Tobacco Plc, Europe’s second-largest largest cigarette maker, dropped 1.9 percent to 2,1898 pence. The company posted full-year net income of 2.71 billion pounds ($4.16 billion), trailing the 2.95 billion-pound average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Tenaris SA sank 7 percent to 15.84 euros. The world’s biggest maker of seamless pipes used to extract oil and gas said four-quarter net income increased to $222.4 million. BofA- Merrill Lynch Global Research said the results were “weak” and the “outlook for 2010 stays cautious.”

BASF SE, the world’s largest chemical company, rallied 4.4 percent to 42.43 euros after cutting its dividend less than estimated. Shareholders will get a dividend of 1.70 euros a share, down from 1.95 euros in the prior year, the company said. Analysts had forecast a cut to 1.55 euros, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Safran SA, Europe’s second-largest maker of aircraft engines, jumped 9.4 percent to 16.47 euros. Adjusted net income for 2009 rose to 376 million euros, up from a restated 297 million euros, as the manufacturer benefited from higher defense and security sales.

Valeo, GKN

Valeo SA surged 5.9 percent to 21.87 euros. France’s second-largest car-parts maker reported a fourth-quarter profit as government-backed incentives spurred auto-industry sales. The company vowed to double its operating margin.

GKN Plc soared 7.4 percent to 111.3 pence. The U.K. maker of car parts for Volkswagen AG said it will make “significant progress” in 2010 and plans to restore dividend payments.

In the U.S., orders for durable goods probably rose in January by the most in four months, economists said before a Commerce Department report due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bookings for goods meant to last several years increased 1.5 percent last month, according to the median estimate of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Labor Department figures at the same time may show that U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 460,000 last week from 473,000 the prior week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Extend Declines After Economic Reports

By Nick Baker

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures extended their declines after reports showed unemployment claims increased more than forecast and orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment trailed estimates.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in March lost 0.9 percent to 1,093.80 at 8:31 a.m. in New York.





Read more...

Asian Stocks Fall on Greece Concern; Commonwealth, Hynix Drop

By Shani Raja

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for a second day, led by finance and technology companies, amid speculation Greece’s credit rating will be downgraded, putting the global economic recovery at risk.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest lender, lost 1.5 percent. Toll Holdings Ltd. slumped 18 percent in Sydney after the air-freight and logistics company posted lower profit. Hynix Semiconductor Inc. fell 2.3 percent in Seoul on speculation creditors will sell a stake in the company. Contact Energy Ltd., New Zealand’s biggest publicly traded electricity company, climbed 4.2 percent as investors sought haven from risk.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7 percent to 116.94 at 7:19 p.m. in Tokyo. Concern that Greece, Spain and Portugal will struggle to curb deficits contributed to the gauge’s 7.8 percent drop from a 17-month high on Jan. 15. Standard & Poor’s said late yesterday it may lower Greece’s credit rating by the end of March. The country may see its sovereign debt rating cut within months, Moody’s Investors Service said in Tokyo today.

“The Greece issue just seems to drag on,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, which oversees about $90 billion. “When issues like potential defaults come up, you see an escalation of nervousness. Investors are worried things might fall back again.”

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 1 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index sank 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index and Taiwan’s Taiex declined more than 1.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.2 percent.

Low Rates

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.3 percent after China’s government said it will extend support for the country’s industries amid weak global demand. Qingdao Haier Co., the air- conditioner and refrigerator unit of China’s biggest appliance maker, climbed 2.4 percent.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.3 percent. The gauge rose 1 percent yesterday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the economy still needs low interest rates.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an earlier 0.2 percent advance as Greece concerns mounted. S&P cut Greece’s credit rating in December and yesterday flagged another possible downgrade. Greece may see its debt rating lowered within months should it fail to meet the objectives in its fiscal deficit reduction plan, Pierre Cailleteau, managing director of sovereign risk at Moody’s, said in Tokyo today.

Commonwealth Bank sank 1.5 percent to A$53.18. KB Financial Group Inc., owner of South Korea’s largest lender, slumped 4 percent to 48,950 won as the financial regulator said it found some accounting discrepancies at the company’s Kookmin Bank unit. Woori Finance Holdings Co., South Korea’s second-biggest financial company by assets, lost 3.7 percent to 13,000 won.

Safe Haven

“The concern is that the size of the bailout for Greece will be limited,” said Tahnoon Pasha, regional head of equities at MFC Global Investment Management in Hong Kong, which oversees $30 billion. “It’s reinforcing the ongoing process of taking risk off the table.”

Contact Energy Ltd. gained 4.2 percent to NZ$6.14 in Wellington as investors sought stocks less tied to economic growth. Tohoku Electric Power Co. climbed 1.4 percent to 1,933 yen in Tokyo. Manila Electric Co., the Philippines’ largest power retailer, jumped 4.1 percent to 177 pesos.

In Sydney, Toll Holdings plunged 18 percent to A$7.10 after the company reported that first-half net income fell 32 percent. Also in Sydney, Iluka Resources Ltd. dropped 3.5 percent to A$3.62. The world’s biggest zircon producer swung to a full-year loss after a decline in demand cut sales and forced the company to write down the value of deposits and close mines.

Analyst Estimates

Goodman Fielder Ltd., Australia’s largest baker, slumped 4.2 percent to A$1.48. The company said first-half profit rose 25 percent to A$90.3 million ($81 million). Earnings were expected to rise to A$92.4 million, the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Hynix lost 2.3 percent to 21,700 won in Seoul. The world’s second-largest computer-memory chipmaker slumped after Yonhap News reported that creditors will sell as much as 13 percent of the company this year.

In Tokyo, Denso Corp. declined 2.8 percent to 2,418 yen after one of the autoparts maker’s units was inspected by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation. The unit in America is cooperating with the investigation, said Bridgette Gollinger, a spokeswoman for the subsidiary.

Low Interest Rates?

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index had risen earlier on Bernanke’s comments that a slack labor market and low inflation will allow the Federal Open Market Committee to keep the benchmark lending rate low “for an extended period.”

The gauge dropped the most in two weeks on Feb. 19 after the Fed raised the discount rate from 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent on Feb. 18, triggering concern stimulus programs are winding down. Companies in the MSCI measure trade at 18 times estimated earnings, compared with 14.2 times for the S&P 500 and 12.4 times for the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe.

“Bernanke stuck to the script and emphasized the Fed’s commitment to maintaining interest rates at low levels until the economic recovery becomes self-sustaining,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage about $1.1 billion of equity investments at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne.

In Shanghai, Qingdao Haier rose 2.4 percent to 21.91 yuan, leading consumer-related companies higher after China’s State Council, or Cabinet, said it will maintain measures to boost car and home-appliance sales in rural areas.

GD Midea Holding Co., China’s second-biggest publicly traded appliance maker, climbed 3 percent to 21.11 yuan.

“Boosting consumption is the government’s key task this year and that investment theme will persist throughout the year,” said Yan Ji, who helps oversee about $1.2 billion at HSBC Jintrust Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. “Some big-cap stocks are bargains given they will see continuing earnings growth and economic fundamentals are still sound.”

To contact the reporter for this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.





Read more...