Economic Calendar

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

U.K.'s Contraction Eased In The Third Quarter

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ecPulse.com | Dec 22 09 10:13 GMT |

The British economy after falling deeply in recession in the first and second quarters this year, it managed to ease the pace of contraction in the third quarter after the introduction of various fiscal and monetary measures that gave an impetus to the economy, especially in the third quarter.

GDP for the third quarter final reading was released today showing a decline in contraction to 0.2%, below expectations of -0.1%, from 0.3%. Signs of improvement appeared from the second quarter when the economy shrank 0.6% compared with 2.4% contraction in the first quarter and the progress continued in the third and fourth quarters as seen by the data released recently.

A leap in construction and fixed investment made the contraction to ease in the third quarter. Analysts are expecting the economy to leave recession in the fourth quarter and expand more in 2010.

The Bank of England anticipates the economy Britain will return to growth in the last quarter. The economy is expected to expand 2.2% next year and 4.1% in 2011, according to policy makers’ projections announced in November.

In December, the BoE left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and the APF program at 200 billion pounds. The Confederation of British Industry raised its growth forecasts for 2010 to 1.2% on 2010 and 2.5% in 2011 and mentioned that Bank of England may stop its APF program in February.

Ecpulse

disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk





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FOMC's 'Extended Period' May Not Be That Long After All

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | Dec 22 09 08:10 GMT |

Market Brief

The USD enjoyed a late rally in yesterday's US session, after Chicago Fed President Evans revealed his interpretation of the 'extended period' term used in recent FOMC minutes – and it was a markedly less dovish interpretation than the market had assumed. The phrase, which refers to the duration of the 'exceptionally low' rate environment in the US, has become a central tenet of structural USD weakness; but while the market has largely adopted the view that the 'extended period' refers to most of 2010, he stated: 'to me that seems like about three to four meetings'. He did however reiterate that unemployment could be higher next year and that inflation should continue to be subdued. EURUSD managed to survive the sell-off to hold above 1.4260 overnight (allowing it to recover above 1.4320this morning), but gold has slumped below $1100 levels, and USDJPY punched through its major technical level on the topside at 91.00. The technical picture for most currency pairs is now tilting to favour further USD-strength, and with the patchy liquidity over the holidays we remain vigilant of exaggerated moves and break-outs in patchy liquidity.

The absence of new sovereign debt concerns has allowed risk appetite to stabilize this week, meaning equity indices across Europe and the US maintained their strong gains into the close, and Asian indices this morning are broadly higher as well. Sentiment was also propped up slightly by headlines overnight that the ECB's Orphanides expects the Greek government to take necessary action, and that fears of a Eurozone break up were 'unfounded'.

The main data release from the US today will be the third estimate of Q3 GDP which is expected to remain at 2.8% annualized QoQ; however there are some outside bets for a further revision lower to 2.7%. In contrast, we will also get the third and final reading of UK GDP, where analysts are looking for an upward revision from -0.3% QoQ to -0.1% QoQ. The fact that the UK remains the only G20 nation yet to emerge from recession has weighed heavily on the GBP; obviously, an upward surprise in this figure would be a significant GBP-positive. Nevertheless, with a large upward revision already priced in, we feel there is little scope for a positive surprise, and indeed the newfound appeal of the USD means that GBPUSD will probably sell-off if the improvements in the data are not realized.

We also look towards the OPEC meeting scheduled today; there are not anticipated to be any changes to output targets, but oil has rallied strongly in the days leading up to this meeting, and we remain wary that these prices have a significant bearing on the inflation outlook for most economies

ACM FOREX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.





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Forex Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DeltaStock Inc. | Dec 22 09 10:17 GMT |

EUR/USD

Current level-1.4327

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated between the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169.

Yesterday's slide couldn't break below 1.4260 low and current bias on the 1h. frame is neutral with a slightly bullish intraday outlook for 1.4370. On the larger frames, the downtrend is intact and the target remains in the 1.4150-70 area.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4370 1.4410 1.5146 1.5290
1.4261 1.4170 1.4170 1.3740

USD/JPY

Current level - 91.16

The overall downtrend has been renewed with the recent break below 87.12. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 89.50 and 93.54.

The uptrend here is intact and the pair is in a minor consolidation pattern below 91.49, before breaking beyond, towards 92.40 major resistance area. Important intraday support can be found around 90.90 and crucial is 90.37.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
91.49 92.40 92.40 93.40
90.90 90.37 83.45 79.60

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.6071

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6454 and 1.5258.

Current rebound from 1.6027 low is nothing more than a corrective pattern, before next leg downwards, to 1.59+. Crucial on the upside is 1.6160.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.6163 1.6250 1.6840 1.7042
1.6027 1.59+ 1.59+ 1.5706

DeltaStock Inc. - Online Forex & Securities Broker
www.deltastock.com

RISK DISCLAIMER: These analyses are for information purposes only. They DO NOT post a BUY or SELL recommendation for any of the financial instruments herein analyzed. The information is obtained from generally accessible data sources. The forecasts made are based on technical analysis. However, Delta Stock’s Analyst Dept. also takes into consideration a number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors, which we believe impact the price moves of the observed instruments. Delta Stock Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon the information on this page. Delta Stock Inc. shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation, losses or unrealized gains that may result. Any information is subject to change without notice.


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Forex Technical Analytics

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FOREX Ltd | Dec 22 09 07:54 GMT |

CHF

The pre-planned long positions from key supports have been implemented with overlap in minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having failed to mark priority of any party activity gives grounds for preservation of the earlier designed trading plans with petty correction for today. Namely, we can assume probability of rate return to close 1,0420/40 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term buying positions on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,0480/1,0520 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,0560/80, 1,040/60, 1,0700/20. The alternative for sales will be below 1,0360 with the targets of 1,0300/20, 1,0240/60.

GBP

The estimated test of key resistance range levels for implementation of the pre-planned short positions has not accurately been confirmed, however, the revealed tendency of fall in both party activity, as earlier does not clarify the choice of planning priorities for today. Therefore, considering current ascending direction of indicator chart, we can assume probability of rate return to close 1,6080/6100 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term sales on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,6000/40 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,5940/60, 1,5820/40, 1,5760/80. . The alternative for buyers will be above 1,6170 with the targets of 1,6220/40, 1,6280/1,6300, 1,6360/80.

JPY

The estimated test of key supports for implementation f the pre-planned long positions has not accurately been confirmed, however, preservation of bullish party priority regardless of rate overbought, as earlier, gives grounds for preservation of bullish priorities in planning trading operations for today. Hence and considering descending direction of indicator chart, we can assume probability of rate return to close 90,80/91,00 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term buying positions on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 91,40/60 and (or) further break-out variant up to 92,00/20, 92,60/80. The alternative for sales will be below 90,20 with the targets of 89,60/80, 89,00/20.

EUR

The estimated test of key resistance range levels for implementation of the pre-planned short positions has not accurately been confirmed, and continuous fall in both party activity as the result of the previous trading day gives grounds only for petty correction to the earlier designed trading plans for today. Namely, we can assume probability of rate return to channel line 1 at 1,4320/40 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term sales on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,4260/80, 1,4200/20 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,4140/60, 1,4080/1,4100. The alternative for buyers will be above 1,4440 with the targets of 1,4480/1,4500, 1,4560/80.

FOREX Ltd
www.forexltd.co.uk


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Finland’s Unemployment Rate Rose for Second Month in November

By Kati Pohjanpalo

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Finland’s unemployment rate climbed for a second consecutive month in November as companies cut their payrolls to adjust to slumping exports and a contracting manufacturing industry.

The jobless rate increased to 8.5 percent from 8.2 percent a month earlier, Helsinki-based Statistics Finland said on its Web site today. The median estimate of five economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a rate of 8.7 percent.

Unemployment is rising in the northernmost euro member as companies including the world’s biggest maker of mobile phones Nokia Oyj cut jobs in an effort to remain profitable. Finland’s nine-month recession ended in the third quarter, though business confidence and industrial output have continued to decline into the last three months of the year.

Unemployment will peak at 10.5 percent next year and the number of people with jobs will drop by 75,000, the Finance Ministry said on Dec. 18. The jobless rate was 6.4 percent in 2008. There is a growing risk that temporary lay-offs may become permanent in 2010, the ministry said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kati Pohjanpalo in Helsinki at kpohjanpalo@bloomberg.net





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German Consumer Confidence Falls for Third Month on Job Fears

By Simone Meier

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- German consumer confidence declined for a third month as households grew more concerned about rising energy costs and job cuts, market-research company GfK AG said.

Nuremberg-based GfK said its sentiment index for January, based on a survey of about 2,000 people, fell to 3.3 from a revised 3.6 in December. Economists forecast the index would slip to 3.5 from an initially reported December reading of 3.7, the median of 19 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Crude oil prices have surged 85 percent over the past year, undermining confidence just as the economy recovers from the worst recession in over six decades. While Germany’s jobless rate declined in November, unemployment concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, GfK said. It projects consumer spending will stagnate in 2010 after rising 0.5 percent this year.

“The expectation of rising prices in the energy sector is currently having a dampening effect,” GfK said. “Looming uncertainty as a result of worsening conditions on the labor market is leading to a perceptible increase in the propensity to save. This is also weighing on the consumer climate.”

GfK’s measure of consumers’ economic expectations rose to 1.7 in December from 0.9 in November, today’s report showed. The gauge was at minus 32.4 a year ago.

An index of income expectations rose to 15 from 6.2 and a gauge of consumers’ propensity to spend fell to 21.2 from 26.3.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jana Randow in Frankfurt at jrandow@bloomberg.net.





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U.K. Economy Shrinks Less Than Previously Estimated

By Jennifer Ryan

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy shrank less than previously estimated in the third quarter as a jump in construction and fixed investment brought the longest recession on record closer to ending.

Gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent from the second quarter, compared with a previous measurement of a 0.3 percent drop, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists was for a 0.1 percent contraction. The recession has now shaved 6 percent off GDP, the statistics office said.

The Confederation of British Industry yesterday raised its 2010 economic growth forecast and said the Bank of England may pause its bond-purchase plan in February. Policy makers have pledged to print 200 billion pounds of new money to stoke spending and shake off Britain’s longest recession on record.

“We’ll have growth returning in the fourth quarter, absolutely,” said George Buckley, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “The bank will start taking back its policy accommodation next year. There won’t be any more bond purchases, and the first rate increase will be in August.”

The pound was little changed at $1.6046 as of 9:53 a.m. in London. The yield on the two-year government bond was up 1 basis point today at 1.185 percent.

Recession Damage

The economy contracted 5.1 percent from a year earlier, more than the 4.9 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists.

The U.S. economy probably grew an annualized 2.8 percent in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 62 economists. The Commerce Department will publish that data at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

Construction jumped 1.9 percent, compared with a previous estimate of a 1.1 percent drop, the statistics office said. That offset bigger contractions in services and industrial production.

Travis Perkins Plc, the U.K. building-materials supplier that owns the Wickes home-improvement chain, said Dec. 17 it expects earnings for 2009 to be “at the upper end” of analyst estimates as spending on do-it-yourself projects aided sales.

Fixed investment increased 2.2 percent, instead of the 0.3 percent drop previously measured. Government spending rose 0.3 percent and consumer spending increased 0.1 percent, the statistics office said.

Election Looming

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is trying to revive the economy and rebuild support in time for an election which he must call by June. In an Ipsos-Mori poll published in the Observer on Dec. 20, the opposition Conservatives had support of 43 percent of voters, a 17 percentage point lead over Brown’s ruling Labour Party.

The economy may already be expanding again. Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said in an interview last week that economic growth probably resumed in the fourth quarter. Unemployment unexpectedly fell in November for the first time since February 2008.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors today forecast house prices will rise as much as 2 percent in 2010. The CBI yesterday raised its 2010 growth forecast to 1.2 percent from a previous prediction of 0.9 percent. The group said the central bank will start raising the key interest rate from a record low of 0.5 percent in the second quarter.

Barker, speaking on Dec. 15, said that the economic pickup may still lapse in 2010.

‘Bumpy’ Recovery

“I’ve always been one of the people who thought that the path of this recovery was likely to be quite bumpy and uneven,” she said. “I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that we’d see another quarter of negative growth.”

The household savings ratio, which measures the proportion of income hoarded by consumers, rose to 8.6 percent in the third quarter, the most since the first quarter of 1998, the statistics office said.

The current account gap widened to 4.7 billion pounds in the third quarter, or 1.3 percent of GDP, from 4.4 billion pounds in the previous three months, the statistics office said in a separate report today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net





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U.K. Housing Market Recovery Will Fade Next Year, RICS Says

By Jennifer Ryan

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. housing market recovery will fade in 2010 as more homes become available to buy and officials start to exit emergency stimulus measures, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.

Prices will increase in a range of 1 percent to 2 percent after rising about 3.5 percent this year, RICS, based in London, said in a statement today. Average transactions may climb to 70,000 a month by the end of 2010 from a low of 26,700 in February this year, the forecasts show.

Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said last week that house prices may stagnate in 2010 as unemployment climbs. Policy makers this month kept their bond-purchase plan at 200 billion pounds ($322 billion) as they assessed whether the U.K.’s longest recession on record has ended.

“You have a relatively fragile recovery and a background in which the government and central bank are thinking about exit strategies from their stimulus packages,” Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said in an interview. “As these begin to take effect there will be more challenges for the housing market.”

The rally will fade as the end of central bank bond purchases next year lifts bond yields, which will in turn boost the swap rates used as a benchmark for mortgage costs, RICS said. The group predicts the central bank will start to raise its benchmark interest rate from the current record low of 0.5 percent next year.

The government’s removal of a temporary cut in sales tax in January, a levy on bank bonuses, an increase in the top rate of income tax to 50 percent and expected further fiscal measures to curb Britain’s record will also curb house-price gains, RICS said.

Election Looming

Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call an election by June. His ruling Labour Party trails the opposition Conservatives by 17 points, according to an Ipsos-Mori poll in the Observer on Dec. 20.

“Whoever wins the election next year will make big tax increases or spending cuts, or both,” Rubinsohn said. “These will all present challenges going forward.”

U.K. house prices rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier in November to an average 162,764 pounds, Nationwide Building Society said Dec. 1. Values were 13 percent lower than at their peak in October 2007.

RICS said last week its sales-to-stock ratio, a measure of slack in the housing market, rose to a two-year high of 31 from 30 in October. Average sales per surveyor in the last three months held at 19, the highest since March 2008.

Barker said in an interview last week the property market has “remained surprisingly tight” with buyer inquiries outpacing the stock of property available for sale.

“I would be pretty surprised if we saw the strength of house prices sustained into next year,” she said. “I would see next year probably as a year where activity remains relatively low and possibly prices don’t change very much.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net;





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Oil Trades Near $74 as OPEC Is Set to Maintain Output Targets

By Alexander Kwiatkowski and Yee Kai Pin

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded little changed before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets today in Angola, where the group is expected to maintain production targets.

Oil traded near $74 a barrel as Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the producer group, which pumps about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will leave output quotas unchanged. Distillate fuel inventories in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user, probably fell as colder weather moved across the country’s north, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“The hope is of course that oil demand is strong,” Johannes Benigni, chief executive officer of JBC Energy GmbH in Vienna, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “With oil prices at $75, everyone is happy and no one really needs to touch the hot iron.”

Crude oil for February delivery was at $73.87, up 15 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:13 a.m. London time. The January contract expired yesterday at $72.47 a barrel.

Brent crude oil for February settlement traded at $73.10 a barrel, up 11 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent declined 76 cents yesterday.

Nymex crude prices have gained 66 percent this year as OPEC’s pledge in 2008 to reduce 4.2 million barrels a day of output took effect. The 12-member group left targets unchanged for a third time when it last gathered in September.

OPEC Consensus

There is a consensus among members to keep OPEC quotas unchanged, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said today, before the formal meeting began, echoing similar statements from other OPEC officials yesterday.

“Quotas will continue as they are right now, there is no need to change,” al-Naimi said today in the Angolan capital Luanda. “The market sees $70 to $80 as a perfect price, an excellent price for the world.”

All the 36 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last week said they expected OPEC to maintain formal production limits. Collectively, the 11 members with quotas pump 6 percent more than their targets allow, according to Bloomberg estimates.

“Investors do not seem to be impressed by the OPEC get- together, with the result being a foregone conclusion that many oil ministers are not even bothering to show up,” Edward Meir, senior analyst with MF Global Ltd. in Connecticut, said in a report today. “We expect the ensuing price bias will be to the downside.”

U.S. distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, probably dropped 2 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 18 from 164.4 million the previous week, according to the median of estimates from 12 analysts before an Energy Department report tomorrow. All of the survey respondents forecast a decrease.

Crude oil inventories probably declined 1.73 million barrels from 332.4 million, the survey showed., while gasoline stockpiles are expected to have climbed 1 million barrels from 217.2 million.

Prior to the Energy Department report, a similar weekly inventory snapshot will be published later today by the American Petroleum Institute.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net. Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net.





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U.K. Housing Market Recovery Will Fade Next Year, RICS Says

By Jennifer Ryan

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. housing market recovery will fade in 2010 as more homes become available to buy and officials start to exit emergency stimulus measures, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.

Prices will increase in a range of 1 percent to 2 percent after rising about 3.5 percent this year, RICS, based in London, said in a statement today. Average transactions may climb to 70,000 a month by the end of 2010 from a low of 26,700 in February this year, the forecasts show.

Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said last week that house prices may stagnate in 2010 as unemployment climbs. Policy makers this month kept their bond-purchase plan at 200 billion pounds ($322 billion) as they assessed whether the U.K.’s longest recession on record has ended.

“You have a relatively fragile recovery and a background in which the government and central bank are thinking about exit strategies from their stimulus packages,” Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said in an interview. “As these begin to take effect there will be more challenges for the housing market.”

The rally will fade as the end of central bank bond purchases next year lifts bond yields, which will in turn boost the swap rates used as a benchmark for mortgage costs, RICS said. The group predicts the central bank will start to raise its benchmark interest rate from the current record low of 0.5 percent next year.

The government’s removal of a temporary cut in sales tax in January, a levy on bank bonuses, an increase in the top rate of income tax to 50 percent and expected further fiscal measures to curb Britain’s record will also curb house-price gains, RICS said.

Election Looming

Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call an election by June. His ruling Labour Party trails the opposition Conservatives by 17 points, according to an Ipsos-Mori poll in the Observer on Dec. 20.

“Whoever wins the election next year will make big tax increases or spending cuts, or both,” Rubinsohn said. “These will all present challenges going forward.”

U.K. house prices rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier in November to an average 162,764 pounds, Nationwide Building Society said Dec. 1. Values were 13 percent lower than at their peak in October 2007.

RICS said last week its sales-to-stock ratio, a measure of slack in the housing market, rose to a two-year high of 31 from 30 in October. Average sales per surveyor in the last three months held at 19, the highest since March 2008.

Barker said in an interview last week the property market has “remained surprisingly tight” with buyer inquiries outpacing the stock of property available for sale.

“I would be pretty surprised if we saw the strength of house prices sustained into next year,” she said. “I would see next year probably as a year where activity remains relatively low and possibly prices don’t change very much.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net;





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Dubai World Said to Present ‘Standstill’ Deal in Early January

By Arif Sharif and Haris Anwar

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai World will present a standstill offer to banks in early January as the state-owned holding company attempts to restructure about $22 billion of debt, three bankers who attended a presentation on the matter yesterday said.

Dubai World, which owns property unit Nakheel PJSC, port operator DP World Ltd. and private equity company Istithmar World PJSC, told lenders it needs time to allow its assets to recover from the drop in value following the credit crunch, said the bankers, who declined to be identified because the meeting was private. Some assets may be sold over time to repay debt, they said.

“They need to sit down and talk it over in more than one meeting,” said Hesham Bakry, Dubai-based institutional sales manager at Al-Futtaim HC Securities Co. “The positive thing is that they are meeting and both parties want to find a better way to handle this issue. It should have happened a lot earlier.”

Dubai World, one of the emirate’s three main state-owned business groups, announced Nov. 25 it would seek to freeze or delay repaying debt until at least May 30. The company said Dec. 1 it wants to alter terms on about $26 billion of debt, including of property unit Nakheel PJSC, which is building palm tree-shaped islands off the emirate’s coast. It repaid $4.1 billion on an Islamic bond from Nakheel last week after Dubai received a $10 billion loan from Abu Dhabi.

‘Orderly’ Restructuring

Dubai World will work with creditors to reach a standstill agreement on its borrowing “in an orderly way,” it said in a statement following yesterday’s meeting. Dubai’s government promised “financial support to cover working capital and interest expenses to ensure the continuity of key projects” if a standstill is achieved, according to the statement.

The cost of protecting Dubai government debt from default fell 2 basis points to 444, according to CMA DataVision prices for credit-default swaps, contracts that fall as perceptions of credit quality improve. A basis point is equivalent to $1,000 a year on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.

The terms of government support for Dubai World have yet to be agreed upon, two bankers involved in the talks said ahead yesterday’s gathering. The lack of an accord would lead to a delay in making the standstill request, they said.

The complexity of Dubai World Group and its funding structure are to blame for the delay, one banker said ahead of the meeting, citing a Dec. 18 letter from the company’s Chief Restructuring Officer Aidan Birkett about the agenda for the gathering. About 100 bankers attended the presentation at the Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Borrowing to Diversify

Dubai, the second-biggest of seven states that make up the United Arab Emirates, and its state-owned companies borrowed at least $80 billion until last year to transform the emirate into a tourism and financial hub. The seizure of debt markets after the onset of the global credit crisis led to a 50 percent decline in property prices in the city and hampered the ability of Dubai-based companies to raise new loans.

Debt restructuring by Dubai state-run companies may almost double to $46.7 billion as more of the emirate’s businesses may need help making payments, Morgan Stanley said earlier this month. Dubai Holding LLC, Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group LLC, Borse Dubai Ltd. and Dubai Sukuk Center Ltd. may join Dubai World in restructuring debt, Morgan Stanley analysts Mohamed W. Jaber and Paolo Batori wrote in the report.

Dubai set up a financial support fund earlier this year to help state-related companies facing problems raising cash amid the credit crisis. It raised $10 billion for the fund in February by selling bonds to the U.A.E. central bank and another $5 billion in November through a bond sale to Abu Dhabi government-controlled banks.

U.A.E. Minister of Economy Sultan bin Saeed al-Mansouri said further federal government support for Dubai should be “studied” properly. “Each issue has to be studied in a proper manner, evaluated and based on that an answer will be provided at the federal level or the local level,” al-Mansouri told reporters in Abu Dhabi today when asked whether the federal government will extend more financial support to Dubai.

To contact the reporter on this story: Haris Anwar in Dubai on Hanwar2@bloomberg.net; Arif Sharif in Dubai at asharif2@bloomberg.net





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Asia Start-up Hedge Funds Beat Peers, Boosting Growth Prospects

By Tomoko Yamazaki and Komaki Ito

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Asian start-up hedge funds have returned an average 22 percent this year, beating global peers and boosting their chances of attracting investors in 2010.

Galaxy China Deep Value Fund and Wisdom of Japan Fund are among new offerings measured by Singapore-based hedge-fund consultant GFIA Pte that helped start-ups outperform an 18 percent average gain through November for the Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index of more than 2,000 funds globally. The outperformance may help the region’s start-ups overcome investor reticence that curbed growth in assets managed this year.

“The continuing challenge throughout 2010 for start-up hedge funds will be raising capital, however, it is generally expected that it will be more accessible than in 2009,” said Skip Hashimoto, the Japan representative at Ogier Fiduciary Services in Tokyo, which provides corporate services to hedge funds. “Funds of funds based in this region are aggressively seeking out new Asia-based start-up opportunities.”

Managers of Asia-focused new funds raised just $3.06 billion through November this year, compared with $20 billion attracted by global start-ups and $3.8 billion by Asian start- ups in 2008, according to Eurekahedge Pte.

The year-to-October average return of 27 start-up hedge funds in Asia excluding Japan that commenced since September 2008 and have more than six months of track record totaled 29 percent, according to data provided by GFIA. For Japan, 12 new funds yielded an average return of 6.5 percent, the firm said.

Asia Comeback

Among the strategies likely to be favored by new hedge funds next year are event driven, which takes advantage of corporate events such as mergers and acquisitions, and trading related, with a focus on investing across Asia, according to GFIA. Geographically, Greater China-focused funds are likely to be prevalent, reflecting demand for wagers on China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Galaxy Asset Management (HK) Ltd., which invests in Chinese equities, manages one of this year’s best-performing start-ups. Its $30 million Galaxy China Deep Value Fund has quadrupled since the September 2008 inception, investing in “deep value stocks that got killed in the financial crisis,” said Joe Chan, a former Morgan Stanley managing director and Galaxy founder.

In Japan, Epic Partners Investments Co.’s Wisdom of Japan Fund, which employs a so-called market-neutral strategy, has returned more than 10 percent through November since inception in March, according to the firm. The fund, which is run by Tadashi Mukai, grew in size to 2.5 billion yen ($27 million) from 400 million yen at the start, according to Mukai.

Under the Radar

The fund has raised money mainly through Japanese high-net- worth individuals and pension funds and expects assets to increase to 4 billion yen in January, said Mukai in a telephone interview on Dec. 9. Mukai was the top performer in 2007 among Japan-focused funds that employ the strategy that seeks to make money regardless of the market’s direction.

Akito Fund, a Japan-focused hedge fund set up by former UBS AG bankers, has returned more than 26 percent since its July start and has managed to boost assets to 7.5 billion yen from 1.4 billion yen at inception by raising money mainly from foreign investors, according to Koichiro Yamaguchi and Tetsuya Hamano who run the fund.

“Managers might not like the idea of launching with a smaller amount of money, but the advantage of that is that you find out all your mistakes when fewer people are looking,” said Peter Douglas, principal of GFIA.

As existing funds take in less money to limit their trading capacity in the wake of global credit crisis, start-ups are set to benefit from investors seeking to take a slice of Asia’s economic growth, Douglas said.

Lower Closes

Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, Europe’s largest hedge- fund firm, limited the flow of money into three funds as client assets approached last year’s high, according to people familiar with the matter. Paul Tudor Jones’s Tudor BVI and Lansdowne Partners LP’s $9.3 billion Lansdowne UK funds restricted inflows this year after replacing money pulled by investors in 2008.

In Asia, Riley Paterson Investment Management Pte said it closed its Asian hedge fund to investors after assets under management swelled 15-fold to $300 million.

Economic growth in Asia will probably accelerate to 5.8 percent next year from 2.8 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said in October. That compares with forecast growth of 1.25 percent in 2010 in the Group of Seven economies.

“You’ve got managers closing at much lower levels, you’ve got a lot more people coming back to the region, and a wave of money flowing back to the Asian hedge-fund industry, which is good news for start-ups,” Douglas said. “So long as they produce reasonable performance numbers, their life will get much easier through next year or by the end of next year and most of the funds will be pleased with themselves that they launched when they did.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Tomoko Yamazaki in Tokyo at tyamazaki@bloomberg.net; Komaki Ito in Tokyo at kito@bloomberg.net





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Dollar Falls Versus Euro on Concern Gain Outpaced Rate Outlook

By Bo Nielsen

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell from near its highest level in almost three months against the euro on concern recent gains overstated the prospects for interest-rate increases as the U.S. economy emerges from the recession.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans yesterday said the jobless rate will probably stay “quite high” next year, damping speculation the central bank plans to raise rates. The dollar had strengthened against all major currencies since Dec. 4, when a report showed falling unemployment and fueled speculation the Fed would move sooner than some economists had expected.

“The dollar has moved too fast compared with what we see coming from the Fed,” said Carl Hammer, a senior currency strategist in Stockholm with SEB AB, Sweden’s third-biggest bank. “The Fed can afford to be patient, and we still see a couple of quarters of dollar weakness left.”

The U.S. currency was at $1.4325 per euro at 8:33 a.m. in London from $1.4275 in New York yesterday. It earlier touched $1.4266, close to the $1.4262 level reached last week that was the highest since Sept. 4. The yen was at 130.65 per euro from 130.18. The dollar will trade at $1.50 by the end of March, SEB’s Hammer said.

The dollar pared its decline after Greece’s government bond ratings were cut one step to A2 from A1 at Moody’s Investors Service, less than some strategists expected.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bo Nielsen in Copenhagen at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net





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China Copper Imports Gain as Local Prices Strengthen

By Bloomberg News

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Refined copper imports by China, the world’s largest consumer, rebounded in November from an 11-month low as domestic prices strengthened on rising demand.

Shipments increased to 194,388 metric tons last month, the customs office said today. That’s 15 percent more than October’s level, which was the lowest since December 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Copper reached the highest price since September 2008 this month as manufacturing in China expanded at the fastest pace in five years. The country is targeting 8 percent growth in 2010 and an 11 percent gain in industrial production, industry minister Li Yizhong said yesterday.

“Domestic prices have strengthened noticeably against London, narrowing losses on imports,” Fu Bin, an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co. said from Shenzhen. “We may see profits again if the trend continues.”

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.6 percent to $6,895 a ton by 3:21 p.m. in Shanghai. It reached $7,170 on Dec. 2, the highest in almost 15 months. Shanghai copper was down as much as 0.8 percent to 55,260 yuan ($8,092) a ton.

Break Even

Buying the metal from overseas to sell in the Chinese market almost breaks even after accounting for China’s 17 percent value added tax, according to Bloomberg calculations.

“The chance is big that some 200,000 ton copper stocks may be released from bonded zones and drag down Chinese prices,” Fu said. “Traders will expedite imports before that happens.” A bonded zone holds imported goods before duty has been paid.

China may increase imports to as much as 200,000 metric tons a month in the first quarter of 2010 after higher domestic prices made purchases from overseas cheaper, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.

Copper in Shanghai last week was at the biggest premium to the London Metal Exchange price since mid-July, Macquarie analysts led by London-based Jim Lennon wrote in a report dated yesterday. More construction and car production in the Asian nation will boost demand for metals, they said.

“While the arbitrage may only be temporary, the incentive to import is consistent with our view that Chinese copper demand is booming,” they said. “The strength in Chinese prices comes despite consumers reportedly doing everything they can to avoid buying and despite estimations of stock build by some commentators well in excess of one million tons this year.”

China’s 11-month refined copper purchases more than doubled to 2.9 million tons, customs said today. November exports declined 42 percent from a 14-month high the previous month to 10,824 tons, its data showed.

--Li Xiaowei. With assistance by Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London. Editors: Richard Dobson, Ravil Shirodkar.

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story: Li Xiaowei in Shanghai at Xli12@bloomberg.net





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Steelmakers Can’t Afford Iron Ore Price Gain in 2010

By Bloomberg News

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The global steel industry will suffer more losses should iron ore prices increase next year, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China’s largest steelmaker, said.

“There aren’t many profitable steelmakers at present,” Shanghai-based Baoshan told the official Xinhua News Agency in an interview posted on the company’s Web site. “A further rise in iron ore prices would cause more losses.”

Rising steel demand and prices in China, the largest producer, led Macquarie Securities Group to predict a 30 percent gain in iron ore prices next year. Baosteel’s comments underscore the differences to be bridged in annual price talks between steelmakers and the world’s three biggest iron ore suppliers BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA.

“There’s room for prices of raw materials to rise only when mills can pass on the cost pressures,” Baosteel said in the Xinhua interview. “The foundation of Chinese steelmakers’ profitability is not solid as the demand is largely created by the government’s stimulus policy amid a global crisis.”

China’s $586 billion stimulus spending has boosted steel demand from automakers, home-appliance manufacturers and builders. That’s fueled record imports of iron ore, used to make steel, this year. Baoshan Steel raised benchmark steel prices by 8 percent for January delivery, the first increase since September, on Dec. 10.

Ship Plates

“Demand from the auto and appliance industries has been strong since the second quarter,” Baoshan Steel said in the Xinhua story. “We can’t meet our clients’ needs even at full capacity.”

Still, the improving demand and prices for products needed by makers of cars and appliances have been offset by declines in other products, Baoshan Steel said. Ship plates are lossmaking, it said.

Baoshan Steel’s comments come as analysts including Deutsche Bank AG forecasts rising steel demand and as cash prices for iron soared. Steel price increases by Baoshan Steel and rivals signal demand growth in China will outpace supply expansion in 2010, Deutsche Bank said.

Weekly cash prices for iron ore imported by China from India gained 5.2 percent, the biggest gain in six straight weeks, to a record $111.5 a metric ton last week, according to Metal Bulletin. The cash price for Australian ore also reached a record $107.4 a ton as of Dec. 18, according to the Steel Index.

“Cash iron ore prices rose on bets that steel prices will rise over the long term,” said Zhu Limin, an analyst with Shanghai Securities Co.

Benchmark Australian iron ore prices were settled at about $61 a ton, excluding freight charges, this year. Shipping the ore to China’s Qingdao port from Western Australia would cost about $11.62 a ton, according to the Baltic Dry Index.

--Helen Yuan. Editors: Tan Hwee Ann, Jacob Lloyd-Smith.

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story: Helen Yuan in Shanghai at hyuan@bloomberg.net





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Asian Stocks Rise on Yen, Outlook for Chip Demand; HSBC Climbs

By Masaki Kondo

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to its biggest gain in almost three weeks, as the weaker yen boosted the earnings outlook for Japanese makers of electronics and cars and as Hong Kong-listed banks advanced.

Sony Corp., which gets 23 percent of its sales from the U.S., added 2.7 percent in Tokyo after the yen sank to its lowest level against the dollar since October. Toshiba Corp. and Elpida Memory Inc. climbed after the Nikkei newspaper said demand for chips is recovering. HSBC Holdings Plc advanced for the first time in six days in Hong Kong after the city’s central bank said some lenders may have “pretty good” profit growth.

“The global economy is steadily improving,” said Yoshinori Nagano, a senior strategist in Tokyo at Daiwa Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $94 billion. “Some people are fearful of a double-dip recession. I’d like to know how they’ve reached that conclusion, though I sympathize with their concerns.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.1 percent to 118.10 as of 5:35 p.m. in Tokyo, headed for its steepest increase since Dec. 3. All 10 industry groups gained. The gauge has climbed 32 percent this year, en route to its steepest annual increase since 2003, as central banks worldwide reduced borrowing costs and governments boosted spending to shore up their economies.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average increased 1.9 percent, the steepest advance among benchmark indexes in the Asia-Pacific region. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.7 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 1.5 percent.

Weakening Yen

The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 2.3 percent, extending this month’s drop to 4.5 percent amid concern government measures to curb property speculation may damp economic growth.

The yen depreciated to as low as 91.48 today, a level not seen since Oct. 30, from 90.29 at yesterday’s close of stock trading in Tokyo, after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told TV Tokyo last night that he will “persistently” keep interest rates at close to zero. A weaker yen boosts the value of Japanese companies’ overseas sales when converted into their home currency.

“Shirakawa sent a clear message the BOJ will fight deflation and keep interest rates low,” said Fumiyuki Nakanishi, a strategist at Tokyo-based SMBC Friend Securities Co. “It is a message to bring down the yen.”

Sony, the maker of the PlayStation 3 game machine, rose 2.7 percent to 2,650 yen. Nissan Motor Co., which gets 36 percent of its sales in North America, climbed 6.1 percent to 769 yen, while bigger rival Toyota Motor Corp. jumped 2.2 percent to 3,800 yen and was the biggest positive contributor to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

Semiconductor Stocks

Shares in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index trade at 3 times estimated cash flow for this year, compared with 9 times for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the U.S. and 8 times for Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.

Toshiba advanced 4.7 percent to 518 yen, and Elpida jumped 4.6 percent to 1,387 yen after the Nikkei newspaper said they will restart capital investment to increase output as demand recovers. Samsung Electronics Co., Asia’s biggest chipmaker, added 1.3 percent to 781,000 won in Seoul. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest maker of custom chips, rose 1.1 percent to NT$62.90 in Taipei.

“The report on Toshiba and Elpida shows one of the phenomena that occur when the world economy recovers,” said Daiwa Asset’s Nagano.

Hong Kong Banks

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 2.3 percent yesterday to the highest close since August 2008. Intel Corp., the world’s biggest chipmaker, climbed 2.3 percent yesterday in New York after Barclays Plc raised its investment rating on the stock, citing “seemingly solid end market conditions.”

HSBC, Europe’s largest bank, gained 0.8 percent to HK$87.15 in Hong Kong. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s most profitable bank, jumped 2.6 percent to HK$6.27, while China Construction Bank Corp. added 2.1 percent to HK$6.41.

Y.K. Choi, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, told reporters yesterday that some banks in the territory may report “pretty good” profit growth for this year.

Financial companies collectively contributed the most to today’s gain in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

To contact the reporters for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.





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U.K. Stocks Advance, Extending Biggest Annual Rally Since 1997

By Adam Haigh

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks rose, with the benchmark FTSE 100 Index extending its biggest annual rally since 1997, as higher crude prices pushed oil producers higher.

Homebuilders Barratt Developments Plc and Taylor Wimpey Plc both rallied more than 2 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised buying the shares. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, Europe’s largest oil companies and which together make up more than 16 percent of the FTSE 100 by weighting, climbed as crude traded above $73 a barrel.

The FTSE 100 index gained 24.91, or 0.5 percent, to 5,318.9 as of 8:19 a.m. in London, extending this year’s 20 percent rally. The benchmark gauge has rebounded 51 percent since March as central banks cut interest rates to record lows and governments worldwide committed about $12 trillion to revive the economy. The FTSE All-Share Index added 0.4 percent today and Ireland’s ISEQ Index advanced 1.6 percent.

Barratt Developments gained 4.1 percent to 118.7 pence and Taylor Wimpey climbed 2.3 percent to 35.12 pence. Goldman Sachs raised its recommendations to “buy” from “neutral.”

Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, advanced 0.6 percent to 1,846 pence. BP, the region’s second-biggest, added 0.8 percent to 595.6 pence.

Oil traded above $73 a barrel as Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said yesterday that OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world’s oil, will “absolutely not” change its output quotas.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net.





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European Stocks Advance as Taylor Wimpey, Julius Baer Climb

By Adria Cimino

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index to a five-week high, before U.S. economic reports that may show the recovery is strengthening. Asian stocks and U.S. futures also climbed.

Barratt Developments Plc and Taylor Wimpey Plc led gains in U.K. homebuilders, adding at least 3.7 percent, after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended buying the stocks. Julius Baer Group Ltd. rallied 3.8 percent as Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a “conviction buy” recommendation. Sony Corp. led Asian exporters higher after the Bank of Japan said it will “persistently” keep interest rates at close to zero, causing the yen to weaken against the dollar.

The Stoxx 600 climbed 0.5 percent to 250.89 at 8:50 a.m. in London, as all 19 industry groups rose. The index is heading for a 27 percent increase this year, its steepest annual advance in a decade. Equities have been buoyed by record low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe and by governments worldwide that have committed about $12 trillion to revive the economy.

“Since we haven’t had bad news about the economy, the market remains confident,” said Guillaume Duchesne, Luxembourg- based equity strategist at Fortis Private Banking, which oversees about $117 billion. “The market is focusing on the idea that global growth will be good. Companies linked to the economic cycle can benefit from this. All is in place for the market to rise a bit more” if news remains positive.

Equity Strategists

European equity strategists say earnings growth can push stocks 11 percent higher in 2010 following this year’s rally. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Corp., which underestimated the strength of this year’s gains, predict shares in the region may climb more than 20 percent over the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley is the only brokerage among 16 surveyed by Bloomberg to estimate a retreat by year-end, saying the withdrawal of government stimulus will weigh on equities.

Profits for companies in the Stoxx 600 are expected to climb 29 percent next year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a forecast for a 7.4 percent increase in 2009 profits.

U.S. stocks rose yesterday, recouping last week’s loss, as analysts recommended companies from Alcoa Inc. to Intel Corp. and health-care shares surged after Congress delayed a new tax in the proposed industry overhaul. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.3 percent today.

Sales of existing U.S. homes probably rose in November to the highest level in more than two years, a sign housing is gaining strength along with the broader economy entering 2010, economists said before a report due at 10:00 a.m. in Washington. Purchases climbed 2.5 percent to a 6.25 million annual rate, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

U.K. Homebuilders

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, economists forecast the Commerce Department’s final reading on gross domestic product to show at 8:30 a.m. today in Washington.

Barratt surged 4.4 percent to 119 pence. Taylor Wimpey climbed 3.7 percent to 35.62 pence. Both stocks were raised to “buy” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs. “We believe the valuation of the U.K. housebuilders is now more reasonable, although returns may remain depressed for at least two years,” the brokerage wrote in a report on the industry.

The U.K. housing market recovery will fade in 2010 as more homes become available to buy and officials start to exit emergency stimulus measures, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said today. Prices will increase in a range of 1 percent to 2 percent after rising about 3.5 percent this year, RICS said.

VStoxx Declines

Julius Baer jumped 3.8 percent to 35.42 Swiss francs. The stock was rated “conviction buy” in initiated coverage at Goldman Sachs, which said in a report the company “offers the most attractive blend of growth, business mix, capital optionality and valuation support.”

The VStoxx Index, which gauges the cost of using options to protect against declines in the Euro Stoxx 50, fell 2.4 percent to 22.81, the lowest intraday level since Sept. 4, 2008, while the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.5 percent. The options measure has dropped 48 percent this year, poised for the steepest annual decline since 2003.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.1 percent today. Sony, which gets 23 percent of its sales from the U.S., rose 2.7 percent in Tokyo. The yen depreciated to as much as 91.48 today from 90.29 at yesterday’s close of stock trading in Tokyo, after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told TV Tokyo last night that the central bank is prepared to “act swiftly and decisively” to prevent deflation from deepening. A weaker yen boosts the value of Japanese companies’ overseas sales when converted into their home currency.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.





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