By Jesse Westbrook and Craig Torres
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Senate's top banking legislators told the Federal Reserve and Securities and Exchange Commission to hold off on enacting a deal to oversee Wall Street, concerned that regulators are proceeding without consulting Congress.
Democrat Christopher Dodd and Republican Richard Shelby, the Senate Banking Committee's top lawmakers, delivered their warning in a letter yesterday as Bernanke and Cox met to wrap up a memorandum of understanding. The SEC plans to provide information on securities firms' trading positions, capital and leverage, according to two government officials.
``Congress wants to have its say,'' said David Becker, a former SEC general counsel now in private practice at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP in Washington. ``Reshuffling who has information could have a significant impact on the distribution of regulatory influence.''
Congress is asserting its primacy over how financial markets should be regulated as federal supervisors wrestle with the yearlong credit rout. Regulators are debating how to strengthen oversight of investment banks after the Fed started emergency lending to securities firms in March.
``We ask that no action'' be taken before legislators can decide it's in the economy's ``best interests,'' Dodd, the Connecticut senator who chairs the banking panel, and Shelby of Alabama said in the letter. It was addressed to Bernanke, Cox and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
Sharing Data
The Fed will share data with the SEC on repurchase agreements, which are short-term loans provided by commercial banks that clear trades and hold collateral for securities firms, said the officials, who declined to be identified because the agreement isn't final.
Cox offered to brief Dodd and Shelby on the SEC's talks with the Fed. The memorandum is ``intended to facilitate our agencies' ongoing, day-to-day cooperation,'' he said in a letter responding to the two. ``It is the role of Congress to decide whether, and if so how, to alter the existing regulatory structure.''
Fed officials in March rescued Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy with $30 billion of financing to secure its takeover by JPMorgan Chase & Co. They also introduced the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, giving securities firms access to loans from the central bank at the same rate as commercial banks. It was intended to last ``at least six months,'' the Fed said March 16.
Some officials have expressed concern about any perception that the Fed's actions would only spur greater risk taking.
Treasury's Ryan
``We don't want to encourage dependence upon the Federal Reserve as a backstop,'' Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Anthony Ryan said in a June 24 interview with Bloomberg Television.
Dodd and Shelby flagged in their letter that Congress hasn't given the Fed permanent authority to lend to securities dealers.
The information sharing between the Fed and SEC will continue even if the central bank stops providing the financing, officials said, citing the draft memorandum. Securities dealers are currently overseen by the SEC. The Fed has introduced its own supervisors at the firms since it started lending to them.
``The only reason for the Fed'' to ``have an interest in how investment banks are doing is if it intends to step in and provide access to the discount window in more normal times,'' said Peter Wallison, a former Treasury general counsel. ``Once that idea gets established then market discipline essentially disappears.''
Hearings Planned
Congress plans to start hold hearings on financial regulation next month.
``We look forward to continuing to work with Congress on these important issues,'' said Fed spokeswoman Michelle Smith in Washington.
Cox urged his staff June 23 to not ``engage in turf wars among federal regulators,'' according to an e-mail the SEC provided to Bloomberg News. He added it's ``inconceivable to me'' that under any overhaul approved by the Congress, ``the role of the SEC will not be strengthened and expanded.''
Central bankers are debating whether to extend the PDCF beyond September, amid signs of continued stress in financial markets. They may make a decision before their Sept. 16 meeting, when traders anticipate they will announce the first interest- rate increase since 2006.
Concern about rising loan losses has sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Banks Index into a 22 percent dive this month, putting it on course for its worst monthly return in almost a decade.
Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn told lawmakers June 19 that policy makers are ``studying a range of options'' for the PDCF. Fed governors and district-bank presidents June 25 heard from supervisors working with investment banks.
Clear Rules
Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Richmond Fed chief Jeffrey Lacker have urged setting clear ground rules for access to central bank funds. They also warned this month that the lending risks provoking future crises by causing moral hazard, or encouraging firms to take on more risk in the anticipation of Fed aid in case their bets go wrong.
``We are in a transitional regime,'' said Laurence Meyer, vice chairman at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC and a former Fed governor. Shelby and Dodd ``are saying the situation on the ground has changed, the regulatory framework is already evolving, and we haven't been involved.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net; Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 28, 2008 00:01 EDT
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Saturday, June 28, 2008
EUR/USD: Euro-zone CPI May Set the Stage for an Imminent ECB Rate Hike
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Jun 28 08 00:09 GMT |
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What Are The Markets Facing?
On Monday, Eurostat estimates for Euro-zone CPI are expected to show that inflation accelerated at an ever faster clip of 3.9 percent in June. If CPI is indeed confirmed at this pace, the figure would match the 16-year high. While much of the rise in price pressures for Europe, and for that matter, much of the other world's economies, are due to rocketing energy and food costs, the news would only underpin European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's already hawkish bias. Indeed, Mr. Trichet, whose primary mandate is to maintain price stability, said after the most recent policy meeting that they would consider hiking rates the following month, and that some policy makers had actually wanted to tighten monetary policy in June. As a result, the ECB is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent at their next meeting on Thursday. However, a weaker-than-expected reading could lead speculation of an imminent hike cool, as the news would give Mr. Trichet leeway to put off increasing rates until later in the summer.
Bonds - 10-Year German Bund Futures
Bund futures have recovered quite a bit from the June 2007 low of 109.66, as market-wide risk aversion leads government debt higher. Looking ahead to next week, Euro-zone CPI estimates for June are expected to show yet another sharp rise, which could weigh Bunds back below 111.00 as the markets anticipate a rate hike by the European Central Bank on Thursday. However, if traders continue to flee risky assets in favor of save havens like government bonds, Bunds could continue to climb to target trendline resistance at 112.00.
FX - EUR/USD
From a long-term perspective, EUR/USD continues to trade within a wide range of 1.5350 - 1.5800, as the US dollar consolidates across the majors. However, the pair remains very much within an uptrend, as EUR/USD bounced from trendline and 100 SMA support just a few weeks ago. Looking ahead to Monday, Euro-zone CPI is expected to rise 3.9 percent in June from a year earlier, which could help EUR/USD break above resistance at 1.5800. Indeed, this data is especially important ahead of the European Central Bank's rate decision on Thursday, when ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is anticipated to hike rates to 4.25 percent. However, lower than expected CPI figures would shift the market's focus to the Euro-zone's clear economic slowdown and may lessen speculation of an imminent rate increase, which would lead the pair to tumble toward the 1.5630 support level.
Equities - Xetra DAX Index
Germany's Xetra DAX index experienced a slow day on Friday as uncertainty clouded the markets and inflation worries persist, as crude oil rocketed to a fresh record above $142/bbl on Friday. In addition, participants await a much anticipated rate hike by the European Central Bank, which could sap confidence in the economy as many view monetary policy as already being restrictive. Looking ahead, Monday's Euro-zone CPI release could add additional volatility in the markets, as initial estimates are expected to show that the index increased 3.9 percent from a year earlier. If figures are released in line with or more than expected, the index could pull back toward the January lows of 6,384. However, a softer-than-anticipated release could help the index consolidate above 6,400.
Disclaimer
Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.
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Big Week Ahead for the US Dollar
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Jun 28 08 00:05 GMT |
ECB to Raise Rates in July, but then What?
British Pound On its Way to 2.0
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ECB to Raise Rates in July, but then What?
British Pound On its Way to 2.0
The US dollar continued to sell-off for the third consecutive trading as the Fed's disappointment hangs over the market. Personal income and personal spending both increased more than expected thanks to stimulus rebate checks. However apparently the BEA included the tax rebates in the personal income calculation which means that it could easily reverse in the coming months. The PCE inflation numbers confirm the existence of high inflation pressures even though they were slightly weaker than the market expected. In the coming week, the dollar should remain weak. It will be a shortened trading week with US traders off for the Independence Day Holiday, but that does not mean that there will not be volatility. With non-farm payrolls, service and manufacturing sector ISM numbers due for release, expect some decent action in the US dollar. Based upon the recent layoff announcements and cutbacks by companies across the nation in response to higher energy prices, job losses will continue. Not only will non-farm payrolls drop for the sixth month in a row, but we believe that the market's -55K forecast is overly optimistic. Although the Federal Reserve has grown more hawkish, with more than 1 month before the next FOMC meeting, currency traders know that nothing will happen between and now and then. Therefore the central focus will be on the comparative hawkishness of other central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia, who both have monetary policy meetings next week.
ECB to Raise Rates in July, but then What?
The European Central Bank has a monetary policy decision next week that stands to challenge the market moving potential of the US non-farm payrolls report. Due to the shortened trading week, NFPs will actually be released on Thursday instead of Friday, right around the time that ECB President Trichet begins his post meeting press conference. A quarter point rate hike has been completely discounted by the market but what traders haven't figured out is what will happen next. ECB officials have tried to warn everyone that the July rate hike will be one-off, but judging from the recent price action in the Euro, it appears that currency traders are hoping for more. With inflation skyrocketing, Euro bulls hope that the ECB not only raise rates but hint that rates will be increased again before the end of the year. Although another tightening may not come in August, rates could rise in September or October. Before the ECB meeting, we are expecting consumer spending and employment numbers from Germany along with Eurozone producer prices.
British Pound On its Way to 2.0
The British pound rose to a 2 month high as the current account deficit narrowed from -GBP12.2B to -GBP8.4B in the first quarter. The improvement was hardly surprising given the better trade balance reports for the first three months of the year, but the detail of the report indicate that it was largely to due a decline in net overseas income. First quarter GDP was revised downwards due to weaker consumer spending and lower services output. These numbers are in line with the Bank of England's projections for slower growth and are what the central bank hopes will bring down inflation. In the week ahead, housing market indicators, service and manufacturing PMI reports are due for release. Given the rebound in the CBI industrial trends survey, manufacturing conditions may have actually improved this month. Activity in the service sector on the other hand should deteriorate if consumer confidence does not hold up. Retail sales last month were strong, but the CBI distributive trades survey is still negative, pointing to underlying weakness. Either way, with the GBP/USD trading above 1.99, there is a strong chance that we will see a retest of 2.0.
Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars Extend Gains
The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars extended their gains against the greenback largely due to dollar weakness as both Australian and New Zealand economic data fell short of expectations. Australian quarterly wage agreements dropped from 3.8 to 3.7 while GDP growth in New Zealand contracted by 0.3 percent in the first quarter. Taking a look at the price action of these currencies, it is clear that the numbers seem to matter little to currency traders who are focused on dollar weakness. In the week ahead, there is a lot of economic data due for release from Australia and Canada. The most significant of which will be the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting. Even though interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 7.25 percent, it will be interesting to see if the central bank grows even more hawkish, moving themselves closer to raising interest rates. In addition, Australian has retail sales, service and manufacturing PMI numbers due for release while Canada will be releasing their IVEY purchasing managers index.
Yen Crosses Weighed Down by Further
The Japanese Yen crosses continued to crumble under the weight of the Dow. On Thursday, stocks were down more than 300 points and on Friday, it added another 100 points to the losses. None of the yen crosses managed to escape unscathed. Japanese economic data was mixed with household spending dropping more than expected while consumer prices and industrial production improved. Next week, the Quarterly Tankan report is due for release. This index of business sentiment has in the past been very market moving, but these days it is far less so. Nonetheless, if business sentiment deteriorates materially, it could add some downside pressure to the Japanese Yen.
Disclaimer
Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.
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Greenback's Decline Continues
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Jun 28 08 00:05 GMT |
The dollar traded lower against major currencies Friday as equity sell-offs continued and oil prices hit new highs. The yen and Swiss franc rose as increased risk aversion sparked new carry-trade unwinding. The Australian and Canadian dollars advanced on rising commodity prices. Sterling continued its ascent following yesterday's technical breakout.
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The dollar traded lower against major currencies Friday as equity sell-offs continued and oil prices hit new highs. The yen and Swiss franc rose as increased risk aversion sparked new carry-trade unwinding. The Australian and Canadian dollars advanced on rising commodity prices. Sterling continued its ascent following yesterday's technical breakout.
The EUR/USD was higher but unable to penetrate the 1.58-handle resistance as US personal income and personal consumption were higher than expected while European sentiment continued to deteriorate. The pair is supported by the lax US monetary policy; however, slowing economic growth in the EMU and particularly in the PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) has kept the EUR/USD flat for many weeks. If the Fed realizes that its negative real interest rate policy is counterproductive (as it causes commodity inflation) and if the Fed raises its interest rates moderately, the EUR/USD will fall. The pair has strong support at the 1.54- handle and resistance in the 1.60-area. We expect the pair to trade in this range until the Fed hikes rates or US recessionary conditions worsen.
Financial and Economic News and Comments
US & Canada
US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $77.4 billion, or 0.8% m/m in May, the biggest gain since 1.0% m/m in November 2007 and slightly beating consensus expectations, fed by rising inflation and the round of income-tax rebates, following an upwardly revised 0.4% m/m increase in April, data from the Commerce Department showed. PCE rose 5.4% y/y.
US personal income increased $225.7 billion, or 1.9% m/m in May, the largest gain since 3.2% m/m in September 2005 and far outpacing consensus expectations, following an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m increase in April. Personal income rose 6.4% y/y. Disposable personal income (income after taxes) increased $600.3 billion, or 5.7% m/m, in May. DPI rose 10.7% y/y.
The overall PCE deflator (consumer inflation) rose 0.4% m/m in May, up 3.1% y/y. The core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% m/m in May. The core PCE deflator rose 2.1% y/y, above the Fed's inflation comfort zone of 1.5%-2.0%. After adjusting for inflation, real consumption increased 0.4% m/m in May, up 2.2% y/y.
US consumer confidence dropped to a 28-year low on energy costs and rising unemployment. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of US consumer sentiment fell to 56.4 in June, the weakest level since May 1980, from 59.8 in May. The measure averaged 85.6 in 2007.
Europe
The UK Q1 GDP rose 0.3% q/q, the least in three years and lower than the 0.4% q/q reported on May 23, weighed down by the weakest services expansion in 12 years, final data from the Office for National Statistics showed. The economy expanded 2.3% y/y.
The European Commission euro-area sentiment index fell more than forecast to 94.9 in June, the lowest since May 2005, from 97.6 in May, according to data from the European Commission. The index peaked at 111.6 in May 2007.
Asia-Pacific
Japan's household spending fell 3.2% y/y, the most since September 2006, the statistics bureau said. Job vacancies declined to a 3-year low with the ratio of jobs for each applicant sliding to 0.92. Core consumerprice index, which excludes fresh food, rose 1.5% y/y in May after rising 0.9% y/y in April. Core CPI for Tokyo rose 1.3% y/y in June. Overall, the figures show increased recessionary risks with accelerating inflation in Japan.
Japan's industrial production rose 2.9% m/m in May, the first increase in three months, on increasing demand for passenger cars and mobile phones, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. Despite the recovery, the METI downgraded its assessment of industrial output for the first time since December, saying it “remains at the same level but on a weak note.”
FX Strategy Update
| EUR/USD | USD/JPY | GBP/USD | USD/CHF | USD/CAD | AUD/USD | EUR/JPY | |
| Primary Trend | Positive | Negative | Negative | Negative | Negative | Positive | Positive |
| Secondary Trend | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Positive |
| Outlook | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral |
| Action | Sell | None | None | None | None | None | None |
| Current | 1.5786 | 106.15 | 1.9943 | 1.0182 | 1.0106 | 0.9600 | 167.60 |
| Start Position | 1.5661 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Objective | 1.5405 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Stop | 1.5860 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Support | 1.5400 | 105.50 | 1.9400 | 1.0180 | 1.0000 | 0.9450 | 166.50 |
| 1.4900 | 104.00 | 1.9200 | 1.0000 | 0.9800 | 0.9200 | 162.00 | |
| Resistance | 1.5800 | 108.20 | 2.0000 | 1.0500 | 1.0300 | 0.9700 | 169.00 |
| 1.6020 | 110.00 | 2.0300 | 1.0600 | 1.0400 | 0.9900 | 172.00 |
Hans Nilsson
Capital Market Services, L.L.C.
www.cmsfx.com
©C2004-2005 Globicus International, Inc. and Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Capital Market Services, L.L.C.
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Economic Calendar
Sunday, Jun 29, 2008
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- | AUD | HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (MAY) | -- | 0.1% |
| 22:45 | NZD | Building Permits (MoM) (MAY) | -- | 82.1% |
| 23:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN) | -31 | -29 |
| 23:15 | JPY | Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (JUN) | -- | 47.7 |
Monday, Jun 30, 2008
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0:30 | AUD | TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JUN) | -- | 0.3% |
| 0:30 | AUD | TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JUN) | -- | 4.5% |
| 1:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit (MoM) (MAY) | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 1:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit (YoY) (MAY) | 13.4% | 14.1% |
| 3:00 | NZD | NBNZ Business Confidence (JUN) | -- | -49.7 |
| 5:00 | JPY | Housing Starts (YoY) (MAY) | -3.7% | -8.7% |
| 5:00 | JPY | Annualized Housing Starts (MAY) | 1.113M | 1.151M |
| 5:00 | JPY | Construction Orders (YoY) (MAY) | -- | -8.4% |
| 8:00 | EUR | Italian Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAY) | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 8:00 | EUR | Italian Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| 8:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAY F) | -- | 0.4% |
| 8:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAY F) | -- | 10.0% |
| 8:30 | GBP | M4 Sterling Lending (British pounds) (MAY F) | -- | 4.8B |
| 8:30 | GBP | Net Consumer Credit (British pounds) (MAY) | 1.0B | 0.9B |
| 8:30 | GBP | Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (British pounds) (MAY) | 6.0B | 6.4B |
| 8:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals (MAY) | 51K | 58K |
| 8:30 | GBP | Index of Services (3Mo3M) (APR) | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 9:00 | EUR | Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (JUN P) | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 9:00 | EUR | Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (JUN P) | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 9:00 | EUR | Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUN P) | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 9:00 | EUR | Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUN P) | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| 9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JUN) | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| 12:30 | CAD | Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (APR) | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| 13:45 | USD | Chicago Purchasing Manager (JUN) | 48.4 | 49.1 |
| 14:00 | USD | NAPM-Milwaukee (JUN) | -- | 45 |
| 23:30 | AUD | AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN) | -- | 51.2 |
| 23:50 | JPY | Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (MAY) | -- | -0.3% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (2Q) | 3 | 11 |
| 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (2Q) | 2 | 7 |
| 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Non-Manufacturing (2Q) | 8 | 12 |
| 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (2Q) | 7 | 13 |
| 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large All Industry Capex (2Q) | 2.0% | -1.6% |
Tuesday, Jul 1, 2008
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:30 | JPY | Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 4:00 | USD | Total Vehicle Sales (JUN) | 14.2M | 14.3M |
| 4:00 | USD | Domestic Vehicle Sales (JUN) | 10.3M | 10.5M |
| 4:30 | AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision | 7.25% | 7.25% |
| 5:00 | JPY | Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUN) | -- | -6.1% |
| 6:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) | 0.8% | -1.7% |
| 6:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) | -1.1% | -1.0% |
| 6:00 | EUR | German ILO Unemployment Rate (MAY) | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| 6:00 | GBP | Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUN) | -1.0% | -2.5% |
| 6:00 | GBP | Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) | -6.4% | -4.4% |
| 6:30 | AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JUN) | -- | 28.6% |
| 7:30 | CHF | SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JUN) | 55.0 | 55.7 |
| 7:45 | EUR | Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN) | 47.5 | 48.0 |
| 7:50 | EUR | French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN F) | 49.2 | 49.2 |
| 7:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change (JUN) | -15K | 4K |
| 7:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Rate s.a (JUN) | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| 8:00 | EUR | German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN F) | 52.3 | 52.3 |
| 8:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN F) | 49.1 | 49.1 |
| 8:30 | GBP | Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN) | 49.8 | 50.0 |
| 9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAY) | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing (JUN) | 49.0 | 49.6 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Prices Paid (JUN) | 86.5 | 87.0 |
| 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending (MoM) (MAY) | -0.6% | -0.4% |
| 16:00 | EUR | Italian New Car Registrations (YoY) (JUN) | -- | -17.6% |
| 17:00 | EUR | Italian Budget Balance (euros) (JUN) | -- | -8.0B |
| 17:00 | EUR | Italian Budget Balance (euros) (YTD) (JUN) | -- | -39.3B |
| 21:00 | USD | ABC Consumer Confidence (JUN 29) | -- | -43 |
| 22:00 | USD | Atlanta Fed's Lockhart to Speak on Economy; Financial Turmoil | -- | -- |
| 23:50 | JPY | Monetary Base (YoY) (JUN) | -- | -0.9% |
Wednesday, Jul 2, 2008
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:00 | AUD | DEWR Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JUN) | -- | -0.1% |
| 1:30 | AUD | Retail Sales (MAY) | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 1:30 | AUD | Building Approvals (MoM) (MAY) | -3.4% | 7.8% |
| 1:30 | AUD | Building Approvals (YoY) (MAY) | 7.2% | 5.2% |
| 8:00 | EUR | Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (1Q) | -- | 1.3% |
| 8:30 | GBP | Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JUN) | 43.1 | 43.9 |
| 8:30 | GBP | Bank of England Housing Equity Withdrawal (British pounds) (1Q) | 5.3B | 7.3B |
| 9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAY) | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) | 6.7% | 6.1% |
| 11:00 | USD | MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 27) | -- | -9.3% |
| 11:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JUN) | -- | 45.6% |
| 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change (JUN) | -20K | 40K |
| 13:00 | USD | RPX Composite 28-Day Index (APR) | -- | -- |
| 13:00 | USD | RPX Composite 28-Day Index (YoY) (APR) | -- | -- |
| 14:00 | USD | Factory Orders (MAY) | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| 15:00 | USD | Paulson Speaks in London About Capital Markets; Global Economy | -- | -- |
| 16:00 | USD | Fed's Mishkin Speaks at Conference in Israel | -- | -- |
| 23:30 | AUD | AiG Performance of Service Index (JUN) | -- | 49.7 |
| 23:50 | JPY | Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUN 27) | -- | 34.2B |
| 23:50 | JPY | Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUN 27) | -- | -1312.6B |
| 23:50 | JPY | Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUN 27) | -- | 16.3B |
| 23:50 | JPY | Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUN 27) | -- | -217.7B |
Thursday, Jul 3, 2008
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (MAY) | -950M | -957M |
| 1:30 | AUD | Exports (MoM) (MAY) | -- | 5.8% |
| 1:30 | AUD | Imports (MoM) (MAY) | -- | -2.2% |
| 3:00 | NZD | ANZ Commodity Price (JUN) | -- | 1.0% |
| 5:45 | CHF | Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 5:45 | CHF | Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| 7:45 | EUR | Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN) | 47.8 | 48.1 |
| 7:50 | EUR | French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN F) | 49.2 | 49.2 |
| 8:00 | EUR | German Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN F) | 53.3 | 53.3 |
| 8:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN F) | 49.5 | 49.5 |
| 8:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUN F) | 49.5 | 49.5 |
| 8:30 | GBP | Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (2Q) | -- | -- |
| 8:30 | GBP | Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN) | 49.5 | 49.8 |
| 8:30 | GBP | Official Reserves (Changes) (JUN) | -- | -$97M |
| 9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) | 0.5% | -0.6% |
| 9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) | -0.7% | -2.9% |
| 11:45 | EUR | European Central Bank Rate Decision | 4.25% | 4.00% |
| 12:30 | EUR | ECB President Jean Claude Trichet Statement; Public Q&A | -- | -- |
| 12:30 | USD | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JUN) | -55k | -49k |
| 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate (JUN) | 5.4% | 5.5% |
| 12:30 | USD | Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JUN) | -33K | -26K |
| 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUN) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) | -- | 3.5% |
| 12:30 | USD | Average Weekly Hours (JUN) | 33.7 | 33.7 |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 28) | -- | 384K |
| 12:30 | USD | Continuing Claims (JUN 21) | -- | 3139K |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manfacturing Composite (JUN) | 51.5 | 51.7 |
| 22:00 | NZD | Tax Receipts (MAY) | -- | -- |
Friday, Jul 4, 2008
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:00 | JPY | Leading Index (MAY P) | 93.0% | 92.8% |
| 5:00 | JPY | Coincident Index (MAY P) | 103.4% | 101.7% |
| 6:45 | EUR | French Central Government Balance (euros) (MAY) | -- | -45.0B |
| 10:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAY) | 0.8% | -1.8% |
| 10:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) | 2.0% | 15.0% |
| 14:00 | CAD | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (JUN) | 62.0 | 62.5 |
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