Economic Calendar

Friday, September 25, 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DeltaStock Inc. | Sep 25 09 09:16 GMT |

EUR/USD

Current level-1.4680

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

Yesterday's test of 1.4611 support failed and current intraday bias is slightly positive, well supported at 1.4660. A break below 1.4611 will signal, that a larger corrective phase is on the run, targeting 1.4524, en route to 1.4444. We still favor the idea, that new highs lie ahead, but confirmation will come with a break above 1.4801.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4801 1.50+ 1.4660 1.4611
1.4911 1.6040 1.4611 1.3746

USD/JPY

Current level - 90.56

A short-term bottom has been set at 87.12 and a large consolidation is unfolding since. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 94.86 and 94.84.

Still in the consolidation pattern above 90.12 and current bias remains negative with a resistance at 90.83.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
90.86 93.40 90.12 88.64
91.62 101.45 --- 87.12

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.6011

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6454 and 1.5258.

Yesterday's break below 1.6111 support area did activate a reversal formation on the daily frame, targeting 1.5352-1.50+ area with crucial level above 1.6458. Intraday bias is positive with a risk limit below 1.5979, targeting 1.6086, en route to 1.6110-30. Current consolidation will aim to correct the slide 1.6467-1.5916

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.6086 1.6467 1.5980 1.5352
1.6130 1.7042 1.5916 1.50+

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RISK DISCLAIMER: These analyses are for information purposes only. They DO NOT post a BUY or SELL recommendation for any of the financial instruments herein analyzed. The information is obtained from generally accessible data sources. The forecasts made are based on technical analysis. However, Delta Stock’s Analyst Dept. also takes into consideration a number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors, which we believe impact the price moves of the observed instruments. Delta Stock Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon the information on this page. Delta Stock Inc. shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation, losses or unrealized gains that may result. Any information is subject to change without notice.





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European Reluctance on IMF Raises Questions Over Revamp Pledge

By Rebecca Christie and Sandrine Rastello

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- European nations are resisting the transfer of more power to emerging markets at the International Monetary Fund as Group of 20 leaders try to ensure its voting structure better reflects the world economy.

Europe’s leaders are “backing away” from their pledge to give countries including China more say in running the Washington-based lender, Marco Aurelio Garcia, an adviser to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, told reporters in Pittsburgh yesterday.

Aversion to the plan stems from a refusal by emerging markets to provide the 186-member IMF with more cash, a European official said on condition of anonymity.

G-20 leaders are using a summit in Pittsburgh to debate how to recalibrate the running of the IMF and World Bank as China, Brazil and other developing nations gain greater influence over the global economy following the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. U.S. officials were optimistic that the effort would succeed.

“This is a necessary shift,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told reporters. “I don’t think there’s anybody who would not believe this is the necessary, appropriate shift in the basic balance of representation in these institutions. I think Europe recognizes that.”

Talks leading into this week’s summit focused on a 5 percent shift of so-called IMF quotas from countries with disproportionate influence, said two officials from G-20 nations, who spoke on condition they not be identified by name or nationality. Quotas determine members’ voting rights, financial commitments and access to IMF loans.

BRIC Nations

Brazil, Russia, India and China, the so-called BRIC nations, have been pushing for an even bigger increase. This month, they proposed a 7 percent shift in IMF quotas to emerging markets and developing countries “to correspond roughly to their share in world” gross domestic product. Developing countries also have been pressing for changes in the composition of the IMF board.

“The problem isn’t so much with Obama, it’s with the Europeans,” said Garcia. “They’re showing their poker faces.”

China has overtaken Germany to become the world’s third- largest economy with annual gross domestic product of about $3.9 trillion, according to Bloomberg data. China has a 3.7 percent voting share on IMF executive board decisions, compared with 3.2 percent for Saudi Arabia, whose economy is about one-eighth the size of China’s.

Future Imbalances

Garcia said an overhaul of the IMF was the “fundamental” first step toward preventing future imbalances of the global financial system. He added that Lula would insist that rich countries submit their policies to the same sort of rigorous oversight that Brazil and other developing countries have undergone for decades.

“If there’s no fundamental change, how are we going to confront the monetary problems that are coming?” he said.

Leaders from the G-20 also are discussing a U.S.-backed plan to give emerging markets more power at the World Bank, officials said.

Talks yesterday and today in Pittsburgh include a proposal to boost developing economies’ voting rights at the Washington- based development institution by 3 percentage points, said the officials.

The Obama administration is also leaving open the question of whether there could be a World Bank chief not chosen by the U.S. government.

“We have to look at the reform of the governance of international institutions as a whole, including the role the different countries play there and their leadership” Michael Froman, the White House liaison to the G-20, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday, when asked if the Obama administration would consider a non-U.S. head of the World Bank.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rebecca Christie in Washington at Rchristie4@bloomberg.net; Sandrine Rastello in Pittsburgh at srastello@bloomberg.net;





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German Consumer Confidence Increases to 16-Month High, GfK Says

By Gabi Thesing

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- German consumer confidence rose to a 16-month high as the economic recovery boosted households’ income expectations and willingness to spend.

GfK AG’s sentiment index for October, based on a survey of about 2,000 people, increased to 4.3 from a revised 3.8 in September, the Nuremberg-based market-research company said in a statement today. That’s the highest reading since June 2008.

The German economy, Europe’s largest, unexpectedly emerged from a recession in the second quarter as government stimulus measures, such as a 2,500-euro ($3,674) subsidy for people who scrap an old car to buy a new one, propped up consumption. Even though improving business and investor confidence suggest growth is accelerating, the recovery could sputter next year when government supports expire and unemployment increases.

“There have been a growing number of reports claiming that the economic decline is less severe than was feared several months ago,” GfK said in the statement. “The fact that the feared slump in the labor market has so far not materialized is also supporting the mood.”

GfK’s measure of economic expectations turned positive for the first time since June 2008 and jumped to 3.4 from minus 7.5. A gauge of income expectations rose to 16 from 8.8 and an index of consumers’ propensity to spend increased to 36.5 from 31.1.

Inflation

Low inflation is also helping to improve consumer optimism, outweighing “any fears over job losses,” the GfK said.

German consumer prices fell for a second month in August from a year earlier, dropping 0.1 percent. Oil prices have more than halved from their peak last year.

Henkel AG, the German maker of Persil detergents, said on Aug. 5 that the company’s consumer businesses will continue to perform well in the third quarter -- albeit with a “degree of deceleration.”

The government of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who will seek a second term in office in national elections on Sept. 27, is spending about 85 billion euros to revive the economy, which the IW economic institute in Cologne expects will contract 4.5 percent this year, before rebounding to 1.5 percent growth in 2010.

The Bundesbank expects unemployment to rise to 10.5 percent next year from 8.3 percent today, which may spook households into scaling back spending again.

“Further developments in the labor market will be decisive in terms of whether domestic demand can continue” to support the economy, GfK said in its statement.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gabi Thesing in Frankfurt gthesing@bloomberg.net.





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Fed’s Strategy Reduces U.S. Bailout Pledges to $11.6 Trillion

By Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve decided to keep pumping $1.25 trillion of new money into the mortgage market to focus on rescuing the U.S. economy as the financial system revives and banks ask for less help.

The Fed is allowing some of the 10 support programs it created or expanded after the credit crisis began in August 2007 to expire or shrink. That caused the first decline in the amount of money the U.S. has committed on behalf of taxpayers to end the recession, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The central bank has purchased $694 billion of mortgage- backed securities since January and plans to spend $556 billion more by April 2010 to keep interest rates down. The debt-buying is the biggest program in the Fed’s arsenal.

“The first thing the Fed had to do was stop the bleeding in the banking system,” said Richard Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research Corp. in New York. “Now that that seems to have been accomplished, they’re focusing on the economy by buying mortgage-backed securities.”

The purchases were scheduled to stop at the end of December. The Federal Open Market Committee decided on Sept. 23 to continue the program through the first quarter of next year and slow the pace of buying to “promote a smooth transition in markets,” the committee said in a statement. It also said the economy has “picked up.”

9.4 Percent Decline

The debt-buying pushed the average 30-year mortgage interest rate this week to 5.04 percent, its lowest since May, according to McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac. The debt is guaranteed by Freddie Mac and the other government-sponsored home-loan financiers, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae, both based in Washington.

The U.S. has lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to bolster banks and fight the longest recession in 70 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

That’s a 9.4 percent decline since March 31, when Bloomberg last calculated the total at $12.8 trillion.

The tally “ignores the fact that virtually all commitments are backed by assets,” Andrew S. Williams, a Treasury Department spokesman who had the same role at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York until earlier this year, said in an e- mail. “The Federal Reserve’s current ‘outlays’ are largely in the form of secured loans. The aggregate value of the collateral backing those loans exceeds the loan value. These are not ‘outlays.’”

Refused to Identify

Spokesmen Calvin A. Mitchell of the New York Fed and David Skidmore of the Fed in Washington declined to comment.

The Fed has refused to identify the collateral backing its loans. Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, the New York-based company majority-owned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, sued the central bank in November to force it to provide the information. U.S. District Judge Loretta A. Preska gave the Fed until Sept. 30 to appeal her decision requiring more disclosure about the financial institutions that have benefited.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index has risen 143 percent since its low on March 6, including a 179 percent increase in share price for JPMorgan Chase & Co. to $44.37 and a 142 percent jump for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to $183.06.

Among the U.S. programs that have expired is the Treasury guarantee of money market mutual fund deposits, instituted a year ago to stem an investor run the week after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. The department said it collected $1.2 billion in fees from funds before the effort concluded on Sept. 18 and never paid out a claim.

Gas Guzzlers

The $3 billion “cash for clunkers,” which gave people rebates for trading in gas-guzzling vehicles, ended in August after 700,000 vehicles were sold, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

The Fed’s Money Market Investor Funding Facility, or MMIFF, is slated to be closed on Oct. 30, and four other Fed programs with a total limit of $2.5 trillion are scheduled to expire in February. Others have been cut back.

The central bank said Sept. 24 it will reduce the Term Securities Lending Facility to $50 billion from $75 billion and the Term Auction Facility, once $900 billion, will shrink to $50 billion. Support for commercial paper, short-term loans that corporations and banks use to pay everyday expenses, has fallen to $1.2 trillion as the market fell from a one-year peak of $1.8 trillion in January.

64 Percent Higher

Banks have repaid about $70.6 billion of the $204.6 billion in direct aid extended through the Capital Purchase Program of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Congress created the $700 billion fund last October.

The $70.6 billion includes $25 billion from New York-based JPMorgan Chase, one of the biggest recipients, and $28 million from Novato, California-based Bank of Marin Bancorp, one of the smallest, according to the Treasury and regulatory filings.

“Because financial conditions have started to improve, Treasury has already begun the process of exiting from some emergency programs,” the TARP administrator, Herb Allison, told the Senate Banking Committee Sept. 24. “It will, however, be some time before all CPP participants have fully extinguished their obligations to the taxpayers.”

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said its Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program has generated more than $9 billion in fees.

The combined commitments of the Fed and government agencies are 57 percent higher than on Nov. 24, when Bloomberg’s first tally was $7.4 trillion.

“We’re not self-sustaining yet,” William O’Donnell, head of Treasury strategy for RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, said in an interview.


===========================================================
--- Amounts (Billions)---
Limit Current
===========================================================
Total $11,563.65 $3,025.27
-----------------------------------------------------------
Federal Reserve Total $5,870.65 $1,590.11
Primary Credit Discount $110.74 $28.51
Secondary Credit $1.00 $0.58
Primary dealer and others $147.00 $0.00
ABCP Liquidity $145.89 $0.08
AIG Credit $60.00 $38.81
Commercial Paper program $1,200.00 $42.44
Maiden Lane (Bear Stearns assets) $29.50 $26.19
Maiden Lane II (AIG assets) $22.50 $14.66
Maiden Lane III (AIG assets) $30.00 $20.55
Term Securities Lending $75.00 $0.00
Term Auction Facility $375.00 $196.02
Securities lending overnight $10.42 $9.25
Term Asset-Backed Loans (TALF) $1,000.00 $41.88
Currency Swaps/Other Assets $606.00 $59.12
GSE Debt Purchases $200.00 $129.21
GSE Mortgage-Backed Securities $1,250.00 $693.60
Citigroup Bailout Fed Portion $220.40 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout $87.20 $0.00
Commitment to Buy Treasuries $300.00 $289.22
-----------------------------------------------------------
FDIC Total $2,477.50 $356.00
Public-Private Investment (PPIP)$1,000.00 0.00
Temporary Liquidity Guarantees* $1,400.00 $301.00
Guaranteeing GE Debt $65.00 $55.00
Citigroup Bailout, FDIC Share $10.00 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout, FDIC Share $2.50 $0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
HUD Total $306.00 $3.25
Hope for Homeowners (FHA) $300.00 $3.20
Neighborhood Stabilization (FHA) $6.00 $0.05
-----------------------------------------------------------
* The program has generated $9.3 billion in income,
according to the agency.

Glossary: ABCP -- Asset-backed commercial paper AIG -- American International Group Inc. FDIC -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. FHA -- Federal Housing Administration, a division of HUD GE -- General Electric Co. GSE -- Government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae) HUD -- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development TARP -- Troubled Asset Relief Program


Breakout of TARP funds:
===========================================================
--- Amounts (Billions)---
Outlay Returned
===========================================================
Total $447.76 $75.33
-----------------------------------------------------------
Capital Purchase Program $204.55 $70.56
General Motors, Chrysler $79.97 $2.14
American International Group $69.84 $0.00
Making Home Affordable Program $23.40 $1.13
Targeted Investment Bank of America $20.00 $0.00
Targeted Investment Citigroup $20.00 $0.00
Term Asset-Backed Loan (TALF) $20.00 $0.00
Citigroup Bailout $5.00 $0.00
Auto Suppliers $5.00 $1.50

To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Pittman in New York at mpittman@bloomberg.net; Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net.





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European Loan Growth Was Slowest on Record in August

By Jana Randow and Gabi Thesing

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Loans to households and companies in Europe grew at the slowest pace on record in August as the economy struggled to shake off its worst recession since World War II.

Loans to the private sector rose 0.1 percent from a year earlier, the slowest growth since records began in 1991, after increasing an annual 0.7 percent in July, the European Central Bank said today. On the month, loans fell 0.1 percent. M3 money- supply growth, which the ECB uses as a gauge of future inflation, slowed to 2.5 percent in August from 3 percent in July.

The global recession has made banks reluctant to lend and also eroded demand for debt. While the economy of the 16 nations sharing the euro may resume expansion in the current quarter, growth is likely to remain muted unless credit flows improve and companies and households increase spending. The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 1 percent and is flooding banks with cash in an effort to revive lending.

“Today’s data justifies the ECB’s extremely cautious stance once again,” said Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The risk of a credit crunch has not disappeared even with the economy recovering, quite the contrary. With the new stronger regulation coming out of the G- 20, banks will be even more careful about lending.”

Capital Requirements

President Barack Obama and other Group of 20 leaders meeting in Pittsburgh today are uniting behind a plan to force banks to tie compensation more closely to risk and tighten capital requirements, U.S. officials said.

The German and French economies unexpectedly expanded in the second quarter and Europe’s manufacturing and service industries grew for a second month in September.

M1, which captures the most liquid form of money in the economy such as cash and overnight deposits, grew 13.6 percent in August from a year earlier, the ECB said, up from an annual increase of 12.1 percent in July. Accelerating M1 growth indicates more money is available for spending and investment which, when enacted, spurs economic growth.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jana Randow in Frankfurt at jrandow@bloomberg.net.





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G-20 Poised to Curb Banker Pay, Coordinate More on Policies

By Simon Kennedy and Theophilos Argitis

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- World leaders are poised to crack down on banker pay and better coordinate economic policies as they seek to temper the excesses that helped trigger the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

President Barack Obama and other Group of 20 leaders meeting in Pittsburgh are uniting behind a plan to force banks to tie compensation more closely to risk and tighten capital requirements, U.S. officials said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said there’s a “strong consensus” to tackle global imbalances. At the same time, divisions remain on how to overhaul control of the International Monetary Fund.

“There will be broad agreement around many elements of a compensation package,” Michael Froman, Obama’s G-20 negotiator, told Bloomberg Television yesterday. Geithner said nations may pledge to ensure that “the collective policies they are pursuing are not going to lead to unsustainable imbalances.”

G-20 leaders are turning their attention from crisis management to overhauling the rules governing financial markets as the forum assumes the mantle as the world’s main forum for the global economic cooperation. They will formalize the body’s new predominance over the G-8 group of richer nations with an announcement tomorrow, a U.S. official said.

Clawback

The third meeting of G-20 leaders in the past year is fleshing out a blueprint on new banking rules drawn up by their finance chiefs in London three weeks ago. Measures being discussed include deferring bonuses, linking them to bank returns and capital, encouraging awards to be composed of stock and allowing the clawback of cash if earnings flop.

The leaders reconvene at about 9 a.m. local time after dining together last night. They will issue a statement and fan out to give press conferences after 4 p.m. Financial Stability Board Chairman Mario Draghi may also brief reporters on the specifics on banking pay and capital requirements.

While signs of a pact on pay suggests the U.S. defeated a bid by French President Nicolas Sarkozy to impose specific caps on bonuses, an agreement may also allay European complaints that the U.K. and U.S. were trying to divert the talks away from financial regulation.

Obama, U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown and other leaders are trying to appease public disquiet after governments used public money to rescue banks only to see many of them quickly return to profit and resume setting aside billions for bonuses.

Goldman

“Europeans are horrified by banks, some reliant on taxpayers’ money, once again paying exorbitant bonuses,” European Commission President Jose Barroso said yesterday. A Gallup poll in June showed that 59 percent of Americans wanted action to limit executive pay.

In the first six months of the year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. accrued $11.4 billion for total compensation, an average of $386,429 per employee, a Wall Street record.

The G-20 officials met as the world pulls out of its worst recession in seven decades, with the recent fortunes of Pittsburgh-based companies reflecting the forces at play in the global economy.

U.S. Steel Corp., the largest U.S.-based steelmaker by sales, is restarting one of two Canadian blast furnaces to meet an increase in demand and H.J. Heinz Co., the world’s biggest ketchup maker, is looking to emerging markets for growth.

Some officials warned their colleagues not to allow the push to revamp financial regulation started earlier this year to be dulled by signs of recovery and surging stock markets. More than half of U.K. bankers, traders and fund managers expect their pay to rise this year, according to a survey released Sept. 8 by recruitment Web site eFinancialCareers.com.

Resistance

“Now that the global economy is improving, there is going to be greater resistance from banks” to more regulation, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Sept. 23.

Geithner counters that officials are still focused on evening out the lopsided flows of trade and investment that contributed to the credit boom.

A “strong consensus” is forming behind the calls for a policy framework to narrow imbalances, he said. That could see China boosting domestic demand, the U.S. saving more and Europe increasing investment. Such an environment could also stabilize the dollar, which has fallen 14 percent against the euro since Obama’s inauguration in January.

Geithner reiterated the U.S. has a “special responsibility” to ensure the dollar stays the world’s reserve currency.

As the group narrowed some splits, a division opened up over whether to shift more power at the IMF to developing nations.

‘Backing Away’

European countries are “backing away” from a pledge to do so, Marco Aurelio Garcia, an adviser to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. The resistance relates to a refusal by emerging markets to give more money to the Washington-based lender in return for greater say in its running, a European official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

The G-20 members are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union.

To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Kennedy in Pittsburgh at skennedy4@bloomberg.net





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G-20 to Assume Mantle as World’s Main Economic Body

By Hans Nichols and Simon Kennedy

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- World leaders will today announce the Group of 20 nations is replacing the G-8 as the main forum for global economic coordination, reflecting a shift in power from rich countries to emerging markets.

The decision, unveiled in a White House statement late yesterday, comes as President Barack Obama, Chinese President Hu Jintao and other leaders gather in Pittsburgh for their third summit in a year to reshape the governance of the world economy following the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The G-8 will still exist and may meet on separate matters such as security, a U.S. official said earlier.

The transfer of influence to the broader group, whose membership ranges from the U.S. to China to Saudi Arabia, symbolizes the fact that the richest industrial nations now lack the sway to govern the world economy alone after their excesses sparked the turmoil that tipped the globe into recession.

“The G-20 needs to prove it can make the tough calls and implement agreed outcomes in a timely fashion,” said Tim Adams, who served as the U.S. Treasury’s top international official under former Secretaries John Snow and Henry M. Paulson and is now managing director of the Lindsey Group. “I think it will succeed, but the G-20 must prove skeptics wrong and that will take time and effort.”

The G-20 accounts for about 85 percent of global gross domestic product and was created after a spate of currency devaluations plagued emerging markets from Russia to Thailand in the 1990s. The G-8 oversees about two thirds of global GDP.

‘One Chance’

“What we are trying to do is create a system for economic cooperation across the world,” U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said yesterday. “We have this one chance to make a huge success of international cooperation.”

Originally a forum for finance chiefs, G-20 leaders met for the first time in Washington last November and again in April in London as they sought to rescue the global economy from its deepest slump in seven decades.

The financial crisis has thrust greater responsibility on to the G-20. At the onset of the turmoil, central bankers used talks near Cape Town in November 2007 to hatch a plan to inject more dollars into markets.

The G-20’s new-found power reflects how the recent slump was led by housing and financial market busts in major economies and the recovery is now being driven by countries such as China. That’s a reversal from previous crises when the G-8 was in the driver’s seat of the recovery effort.

China’s Role

China has already overtaken Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy and may soon be named the biggest exporter. It passed Japan a year ago as the main foreign investor in U.S. government debt. China, Russia, Brazil and India together hold about 42 percent of international reserve assets, excluding gold.

“You can’t possibly have a mechanism” for sustaining global economic stability without including China, said Laura D’Andrea Tyson, an outside adviser to President Barack Obama and former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Bill Clinton. “It’s too big a player in trade and investment.”

Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. predict developed economies will shrink 3.3 percent this year and grow 2.8 percent in 2010, compared with growth of 0.5 percent and 5.8 percent in emerging markets.

G-20 leaders meeting today are discussing an agenda aimed at tackling global imbalances, restraining banker pay, raising capital at financial companies and revamping control of the International Monetary Fund.

Bretton Woods

The need for economic policy makers to convene regularly grew out of the turmoil that followed the abandonment of the Bretton Woods system of fixed currencies and the oil shock of the 1970s. In 1975, French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing gathered the leaders of West Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. at a summit in Rambouillet, France.

The group soon expanded to seven and its influence reached its zenith through the Louvre and Plaza currency accords of the 1980s and with its responses to financial crises in Asia, Latin America and Russia in the 1990s. It hasn’t intervened in foreign exchange markets since a rescue of the euro in September 2000.

Russia joined after the end of the Cold War to expand it to the G-8, although its officials are still not invited to finance and economic talks.

The G-20’s new formal role may prompt some investors who had dismissed the G-7 as irrelevant to pay more attention to international gatherings.

“On G-7 meeting weekends now I go fishing, no reporters call and writing up summaries of the G-7 for the most part is pointless as there is no news,” David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics, wrote in a report to clients today.

The G-20 members are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union.

To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Kennedy in Pittsburgh at skennedy4@bloomberg.net





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U.K. Banks Risk Losing Business After FSA’s Criticism, BBA Says

By Jon Menon and Caroline Binham

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. risks losing business after Financial Services Authority Chairman Adair Turner criticized some banking activities as socially useless, British Bankers’ Association Chief Executive Officer Angela Knight said.

“If we continue to demonize our own banking industry, there is no shortage of other jurisdictions which will leap at the chance of taking the business,” Knight, who heads the U.K. banking industry’s main lobby group, said in remarks prepared for a speech in London yesterday. “Those who have the opportunity for public platforms also have a duty to use that opportunity advisedly.”

Knight spoke after Turner said this week that British banks should place “social usefulness” above profitability and walk away from activities that aren’t of social benefit. Last month, he also mooted a so-called global Tobin tax on banks that would be used to distribute profits to the world’s poor. Britain may be “held back” by such comments as the Group of 20 leaders meet in Pittsburgh to discuss financial regulation, said Knight.

“The manner of our criticism is not helping our negotiating position,” Knight said. “If the price of gaining headlines and column inches in the short term is the cost of jobs, and our country’s economic prospects in the long term, then their price is simply too high,” she said.

World leaders from the Group of 20 countries are meeting in Pittsburgh to develop a plan to force banks to curb leverage, hold more equity capital and keep a greater pool of assets that can be easily traded. They may also consider a plan to restrain bankers’ pay.

The largest corporate taxpayer is the financial services industry, 60 percent of whose contribution is from banks, said Knight. The BBA helps 223 members from 60 countries lobby on U.K. banking issues, according to its Web site.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jon Menon in London at jmenon1@bloomberg.netCaroline Binham in London at cbinham@bloomberg.net





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Pound Falls as G-20 Agrees on Bank Pay, King Welcomes Weakness

By Anna Rascouet and Morwenna Coniam

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The pound fell, trading below $1.60 for the first time in more than two months, as world leaders united behind a plan to regulate banker pay and tighten capital regulations for financial institutions.

The British currency also dropped against the euro as U.S. officials said Group of 20 leaders meeting in Pittsburgh are near a “broad agreement” on a plan to tie compensation more closely to risk. The pound dropped the most since April versus the dollar yesterday and traded at its lowest in more than five months against the euro after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the currency’s weakness was “very helpful” to the U.K. economy.

“Sentiment is pretty poor for sterling,” said Steven Barrow, head of G-10 currency research at Standard Bank Plc in London. “It comes down to what King was saying yesterday. At the G-20, there are issues of bonuses and bank capital and those developments for bank regulation are going to be things that restrict bank profitability.”

The pound fell to $1.6029 as of 8:44 a.m. in London, from $1.6059 yesterday, and traded as low as $1.5918 earlier, its weakest level since July 8. It also depreciated to 91.62 pence per euro, from 91.29 pence. It reached 91.93 pence earlier, the weakest level since April 1.

Tightened rules on banking and pay may hurt Britain’s economy more than others because of its dependence on the financial industry, analysts say. London’s square mile, as the country’s main financial district is known, generates a third of U.K. corporation tax revenue and as much as 15 percent of all tax paid to the government, according to Stuart Fraser, the City of London’s policy chairman.

U.K. government bonds rose, with the 10-year gilt yield falling 3 basis points to 3.66 percent. The yield on the two- year note also dropped 3 basis points, to 0.75 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Anna Rascouet in London at arascouet@bloomberg.net; Morwenna Coniam in London at mconiam@bloomberg.net





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Liu He as China’s Larry Summers Makes Politburo Appreciate U.S.

By Bloomberg News

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Two days after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. a year ago, an adviser sent by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met with a group of Harvard University scholars to help shape his country’s response.

On March 30, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers separately made time for the same man, Liu He, on the day the Obama administration forced the ouster of General Motors Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner.

Top-level access in Washington and Beijing gives Liu, a 57- year-old graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, a pivotal role in the U.S.-China economic relationship. His mission was to convey American sensibilities on the depth of the U.S. financial crisis to Wen, said Anthony Saich, a professor at the Kennedy School who attended the Sept. 17, 2008, meeting in Cambridge, Massachusetts. It was part of a fact-finding tour that included stops in New York, Washington and San Francisco.

“He’s a very sophisticated thinker, very analytical,” said Saich, who said the meeting also included Harvard economists such as Jeffrey Liebman, now a White House budget official. “He’s a key person in preparing reports that are not only going to the premier but also to the general secretary of the party,” President Hu Jintao.

When Liu returned to Beijing from the September trip, his report was made available to senior leaders, according to a person familiar with the situation whose job prevents him from speaking about Chinese officials publicly.

While it isn’t known what Liu reported, a Chinese response to the crisis wasn’t long in coming. On Nov. 9, China announced a 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus, which helped the economy ride out the worst of the financial turmoil.

‘China’s Larry Summers’

“Liu He is one of only a few Chinese officials who can speak the language of international finance,” said Cheng Li, a senior fellow at Washington’s Brookings Institution who met Liu in March. “He’s China’s Larry Summers.”

Unlike Summers, a frequent guest on U.S. television talk shows, Liu avoids publicity, operating within a secretive decision-making apparatus inside the burnt-red walls of Beijing’s Zhongnanhai leadership compound. At least 10 people who know him say he is quiet and modest. He turned down four interview requests for this story.

Liu’s title since 2003 has been deputy director of the office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs. Participants include Wen, Vice Premier Wang Qishan and People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, according to China experts and non-governmental Web sites.

Pensions and Currency

To generate ideas for the leading group, Liu convenes meetings of economists, bankers and government officials to hash out options on everything from pensions to the value of the yuan, according to a Chinese economist who has participated.

The economist, who asked not to be named because of the sessions’ sensitive nature, described them as freewheeling and devoid of ideology.

“They will pick some hotel in a suburb of Beijing, all these people would show up, and Liu will say ‘We’re interested in exchange-rate policies, talk,’” said Victor Shih, a professor at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, and author of the 2008 book “Factions and Finance in China.”

The leading group makes recommendations to the country’s cabinet, the full 25-person Politburo or its elite nine-member standing committee, led by Hu, 66, on whether to pull the trigger on government policies, the Chinese economist said.

Top Members

Liu, who holds the rank of vice minister, also gathers ideas from the Chinese Economists 50 Forum, a non-governmental group he founded in 1998 that parlays academic research into policy solutions. Members include Zhou and Lou Jiwei, the chairman of China’s $297.5 billion sovereign wealth fund.

Liu spent much of his career in the State Planning Commission, the agency that formerly set prices for everything from bicycles to grain, according to his online biography. It now writes industrial policy under a new name, the National Development and Reform Commission.

A former soldier and factory worker who was sent to Manchuria in the midst of China’s 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution, Liu helped draft the five-year plans that underpinned China’s economy. He has been a Communist Party member for more than three decades, the biography says.

In a chapter from a 2008 book Liu wrote assessing China’s 30 years of economic openness, he praised the “grey area” the country has found, moving toward a market economy without “blindly” mimicking Western models.

No Extremes

“Liu’s economic philosophy is pragmatism,” the Brookings Institution’s Li said. “He will not be obsessed with two extremes. One is market fundamentalism and the other is the previous planned economy, which completely failed.”

He has that in common with Summers’s great rival, Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist at New York’s Columbia University who served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Bill Clinton.

Stiglitz, 66, has praised China for its crisis response, which focuses on government-funded investment in roads, bridges and factories. At a May 13 forum in Beijing, Stiglitz said China “has taken very rapid action to address the crisis” and may emerge as “a winner.”

After the Cultural Revolution delayed Liu’s education, he entered Beijing’s People’s University in 1978, earning a master’s degree in economics, his biography said.

Liu studied management at Seton Hall University in South Orange, New Jersey, in 1992-1993 and spent the next two years at Harvard, earning a master’s degree in public administration in 1995, according to school records.

“One got the sense of an individual whose entire resume had prepared him for his difficult tasks,” said Dennis Wilder, who until January was Asia director at the White House National Security Council and met Liu in March. Wilder now is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.

“He would be an extremely strong player in the game of bilateral poker: well grounded in the technical issues, non- polemic, and with an in-depth understanding of the United States,” Wilder said.

--Michael Forsythe, Dune Lawrence. Editors: Bill Austin, Anne Swardson

To contact Bloomberg staff on this story: Michael Forsythe in Beijing +8610-6649-7580 or mforsythe@bloomberg.net Dune Lawrence in New York at +1-212-617-4510 or Dlawrence6@bloomberg.net.





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Fed’s Strategy Reduces U.S. Bailout Pledges to $11.6 Trillion

By Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve decided to keep pumping $1.25 trillion of new money into the mortgage market to focus on rescuing the U.S. economy as the financial system revives and banks ask for less help.

The Fed is allowing some of the 10 support programs it created or expanded after the credit crisis began in August 2007 to expire or shrink. That caused the first decline in the amount of money the U.S. has committed on behalf of taxpayers to end the recession, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The central bank has purchased $694 billion of mortgage- backed securities since January and plans to spend $556 billion more by April 2010 to keep interest rates down. The debt-buying is the biggest program in the Fed’s arsenal.

“The first thing the Fed had to do was stop the bleeding in the banking system,” said Richard Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research Corp. in New York. “Now that that seems to have been accomplished, they’re focusing on the economy by buying mortgage-backed securities.”

The purchases were scheduled to stop at the end of December. The Federal Open Market Committee decided on Sept. 23 to continue the program through the first quarter of next year and slow the pace of buying to “promote a smooth transition in markets,” the committee said in a statement. It also said the economy has “picked up.”

9.4 Percent Decline

The debt-buying pushed the average 30-year mortgage interest rate this week to 5.04 percent, its lowest since May, according to McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac. The debt is guaranteed by Freddie Mac and the other government-sponsored home-loan financiers, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae, both based in Washington.

The U.S. has lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to bolster banks and fight the longest recession in 70 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

That’s a 9.4 percent decline since March 31, when Bloomberg last calculated the total at $12.8 trillion.

The tally “ignores the fact that virtually all commitments are backed by assets,” Andrew S. Williams, a Treasury Department spokesman who had the same role at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York until earlier this year, said in an e- mail. “The Federal Reserve’s current ‘outlays’ are largely in the form of secured loans. The aggregate value of the collateral backing those loans exceeds the loan value. These are not ‘outlays.’”

Refused to Identify

Spokesmen Calvin A. Mitchell of the New York Fed and David Skidmore of the Fed in Washington declined to comment.

The Fed has refused to identify the collateral backing its loans. Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, the New York-based company majority-owned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, sued the central bank in November to force it to provide the information. U.S. District Judge Loretta A. Preska gave the Fed until Sept. 30 to appeal her decision requiring more disclosure about the financial institutions that have benefited.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index has risen 143 percent since its low on March 6, including a 179 percent increase in share price for JPMorgan Chase & Co. to $44.37 and a 142 percent jump for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to $183.06.

Among the U.S. programs that have expired is the Treasury guarantee of money market mutual fund deposits, instituted a year ago to stem an investor run the week after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. The department said it collected $1.2 billion in fees from funds before the effort concluded on Sept. 18 and never paid out a claim.

Gas Guzzlers

The $3 billion “cash for clunkers,” which gave people rebates for trading in gas-guzzling vehicles, ended in August after 700,000 vehicles were sold, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

The Fed’s Money Market Investor Funding Facility, or MMIFF, is slated to be closed on Oct. 30, and four other Fed programs with a total limit of $2.5 trillion are scheduled to expire in February. Others have been cut back.

The central bank said Sept. 24 it will reduce the Term Securities Lending Facility to $50 billion from $75 billion and the Term Auction Facility, once $900 billion, will shrink to $50 billion. Support for commercial paper, short-term loans that corporations and banks use to pay everyday expenses, has fallen to $1.2 trillion as the market fell from a one-year peak of $1.8 trillion in January.

64 Percent Higher

Banks have repaid about $70.6 billion of the $204.6 billion in direct aid extended through the Capital Purchase Program of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Congress created the $700 billion fund last October.

The $70.6 billion includes $25 billion from New York-based JPMorgan Chase, one of the biggest recipients, and $28 million from Novato, California-based Bank of Marin Bancorp, one of the smallest, according to the Treasury and regulatory filings.

“Because financial conditions have started to improve, Treasury has already begun the process of exiting from some emergency programs,” the TARP administrator, Herb Allison, told the Senate Banking Committee Sept. 24. “It will, however, be some time before all CPP participants have fully extinguished their obligations to the taxpayers.”

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said its Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program has generated more than $9 billion in fees.

The combined commitments of the Fed and government agencies are 57 percent higher than on Nov. 24, when Bloomberg’s first tally was $7.4 trillion.

“We’re not self-sustaining yet,” William O’Donnell, head of Treasury strategy for RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, said in an interview.


===========================================================
--- Amounts (Billions)---
Limit Current
===========================================================
Total $11,563.65 $3,025.27
-----------------------------------------------------------
Federal Reserve Total $5,870.65 $1,590.11
Primary Credit Discount $110.74 $28.51
Secondary Credit $1.00 $0.58
Primary dealer and others $147.00 $0.00
ABCP Liquidity $145.89 $0.08
AIG Credit $60.00 $38.81
Commercial Paper program $1,200.00 $42.44
Maiden Lane (Bear Stearns assets) $29.50 $26.19
Maiden Lane II (AIG assets) $22.50 $14.66
Maiden Lane III (AIG assets) $30.00 $20.55
Term Securities Lending $75.00 $0.00
Term Auction Facility $375.00 $196.02
Securities lending overnight $10.42 $9.25
Term Asset-Backed Loans (TALF) $1,000.00 $41.88
Currency Swaps/Other Assets $606.00 $59.12
GSE Debt Purchases $200.00 $129.21
GSE Mortgage-Backed Securities $1,250.00 $693.60
Citigroup Bailout Fed Portion $220.40 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout $87.20 $0.00
Commitment to Buy Treasuries $300.00 $289.22
-----------------------------------------------------------
FDIC Total $2,477.50 $356.00
Public-Private Investment (PPIP)$1,000.00 0.00
Temporary Liquidity Guarantees* $1,400.00 $301.00
Guaranteeing GE Debt $65.00 $55.00
Citigroup Bailout, FDIC Share $10.00 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout, FDIC Share $2.50 $0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
HUD Total $306.00 $3.25
Hope for Homeowners (FHA) $300.00 $3.20
Neighborhood Stabilization (FHA) $6.00 $0.05
-----------------------------------------------------------
* The program has generated $9.3 billion in income,
according to the agency.

Glossary: ABCP -- Asset-backed commercial paper AIG -- American International Group Inc. FDIC -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. FHA -- Federal Housing Administration, a division of HUD GE -- General Electric Co. GSE -- Government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae) HUD -- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development TARP -- Troubled Asset Relief Program


Breakout of TARP funds:
===========================================================
--- Amounts (Billions)---
Outlay Returned
===========================================================
Total $447.76 $75.33
-----------------------------------------------------------
Capital Purchase Program $204.55 $70.56
General Motors, Chrysler $79.97 $2.14
American International Group $69.84 $0.00
Making Home Affordable Program $23.40 $1.13
Targeted Investment Bank of America $20.00 $0.00
Targeted Investment Citigroup $20.00 $0.00
Term Asset-Backed Loan (TALF) $20.00 $0.00
Citigroup Bailout $5.00 $0.00
Auto Suppliers $5.00 $1.50

To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Pittman in New York at mpittman@bloomberg.net; Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net.





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Fed May Need Aggression in Reversing Actions, Warsh Says in WSJ

By Scott Lanman

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said the U.S. central bank may need to be as aggressive in reversing its actions to revive the economy and financial markets as policy makers were in starting them.

“If ‘whatever it takes’ was appropriate to arrest the panic, the refrain might turn out to be equally necessary at a stage during the recovery to ensure the Federal Reserve’s institutional credibility,” Warsh said in an opinion piece published late yesterday on the Wall Street Journal’s Web site.

The message from Warsh, 39, one of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s top advisers during the financial crisis, stresses that the Fed may start to raise interest rates before it’s obvious that it is necessary. Just two days ago, the Fed unanimously decided to keep its benchmark rate near zero and repeat that rates will stay low for an “extended period.”

“Market participants and policy makers alike should steer clear of ironclad policy prescriptions,” Warsh said. “Nonetheless, I would hazard the view that prudent risk management indicates that policy likely will need to begin normalization before it is obvious that it is necessary, possibly with greater force than is customary, and taking proper account of the policies being instituted by other authorities.”

The Fed has already begun cutting back some of its emergency aid to financial firms as part of its so-called exit strategy from a $1 trillion credit expansion.

‘Extended Period’

The central bank said yesterday it will further shrink auctions of cash loans to banks and Treasury securities to bond dealers, reducing the combined initiatives to $100 billion by January from $450 billion. The Fed cited “continued improvements” in financial markets.

In the Journal piece, Warsh repeated parts of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 23 statement, which he supported. “Economic activity has picked up, and conditions in financial markets have improved further,” Warsh said. “Longer-term inflation expectations are stable, and economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”

Warsh is scheduled to speak to a Chicago Fed-hosted banking conference today, where he will deliver a similar message.

A former Morgan Stanley investment banker appointed to the Fed in 2006 by then-President George W. Bush, Warsh helped Bernanke and the Treasury navigate the financial crisis, including developing terms of the government’s purchases of bank stakes and mediating a takeover fight over Wachovia Corp.

Depths of ‘Panic’

“Judgments made by policy makers in the current period are likely to be as consequential as any made in the depths of the panic,” Warsh said in the Journal. “That means policy makers should continue to communicate as clearly as possible the guideposts, conditions and means by which extraordinary monetary accommodation will be unwound, including the removal of excess bank reserves.”

Bernanke communicated the means in July congressional testimony and a related op-ed piece, also published in the Wall Street Journal. The Fed chief outlined tools for raising interest rates and mopping up bank reserves, saying officials will use the interest rate on banks’ deposits with the central bank as a principal way to prevent a surge of money growth.

Warsh said he’s confident the Fed will tighten credit in a “timely” way, providing the “ultimate rejoinder to our critics,” who he didn’t identify.

One critic has been Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian and economist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. He said earlier this year the central bank has often lacked the resolve to pursue unpopular policies to keep prices in check.

Reverse Actions

Warsh aimed to address such concerns in his op-ed piece, saying moving too slowly to reverse the Fed’s actions “ultimately could cause the innovative policy approaches introduced in the past couple of years to lose their standing as valuable additions in the arsenal of central bankers.”

At the same time, making the mistake of moving too fast or too slow to tighten credit is “neither uncommon nor unexpected in the normal conduct of monetary policy,” he said. Given that, “a nimble, even-handed approach toward our risk-management challenges will prove necessary,” he said.

Developments in financial markets, such as asset prices and related interest rates, “bear especially careful watching,” Warsh said. “They may impart more forward-looking signs of growth and inflation prospects than arithmetic readings of stimulus-induced gross domestic product or lagged composite readings of inflation,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net.





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