Economic Calendar

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

FX Thoughts for the Day

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services | Sep 22 09 12:03 GMT |

USD-CHF @ 1.0243/46...Holding Short

R: 1.0270-1.0300 / 1.0330 / 1.0370-85
S: 1.0220-00 / 1.0137 / 1.0039

Swiss continued to fall during the day breaking below the significant Support at 1.0275 mentioned earlier and is now trading lower below 1.0250. If it continues to trade lower a break below 1.0200 might see a downmove towards 1.0150-30 in the coming sessions. On the upside Resistance is seen in the region 1.0270-0300 which we expect to hold in the US session as the pair is looking weak.

Holding:

USD 10K Short at 1.0355, TSL 1.0270 (down from 1.0295), TP 1.0150 (changed from Open)

As soon as the market trades 1.0180, bring TSL down to 1.0235

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.6339/43...Resistance near 1.64

R: 1.6358-80 / 1.6416-20 / 1.6450
S: 1.6314 / 1.6262-33 / 1.6191

Cable has risen beyond the Resistance at 1.6300 and next faces Resistance at 1.6435. The Projected Max High for the day is at 1.6358. It has already scaled a high of 1.6350 during the day. It seems to have decided to honour the channel at the moment and target its upper end which is at 1.68 over the next several days. However, the Resistance at 1.64 is an important one which will have to be watched to get the confimation whether of a continues rally towards 1.68 once again.

Overall Cable is trading in a broad range of 1.61-1.70 over the last several months.

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.8738/41...Significant Resistance in the region 0.8750-75

R: 0.8750-75 / 0.8860 / 0.9038
S: 0.8720-00 / 0.8670-50 / 0.8615-00

Aussie as expected continued to rise towards 0.8750 during the day. Significant Resistance is seen in the region 0.8750-75. A strong break above this Resistance region (0.8750-75) might see futher rise towards 0.8850-0.8900 in the coming sessions. On the other hand if this Resistance region (0.8750-75) holds we might see a downmove towards 0.8670-50 in the US session. Note that the projected Max-Low for the day is 0.8655.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.





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EURUSD: New Fresh High Puts The 1.4875 Level Under Pressure

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 22 09 12:07 GMT |

EURUSD: A two-day recovery ended in another break higher in early trading today pushing EUR further higher to the 1.4797 level at the time of this analysis. This is coming on the back of a hammer formation on Monday and with fresh upside offensives seen, the 1.4875 level, representing its Sept 21'09 high will now be targeted ahead of its psycho level at 1.5000. On the downside, weakness if seen will trigger declines towards the 1.4736/19 level, its Sept 16'09/Dec 18'08 highs ahead of the 1.4634 level, its Sept 11'09 high with a break and hold below there creating scope for further pressure towards the 1.4446 level, its Aug 09 high. This level is of significance in the pair's current run to the upside, as it is expected to reverse roles and provide support. On the whole, having continued to print higher level prices, EUR remains poised to target additional upside gains towards the 1.4875 level.

Support Comments

  • 1.4736/19 Sept 16'09/Dec 18'08 highs
  • 1.4634 Sept 11'09 high
  • 1.4446 Aug 05'09 high

Resistance Comments

  • 1.4875 Sept 21'09 high
  • 1.5000 Psycho level

Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com

This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report





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USD Sharply Lower, ADB Raises China's Growth Forecast

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Easy Forex | Sep 22 09 12:29 GMT |

FX Highlights

  • USD is trading sharply lower as the Asian Development Bank raises China's growth forecast equity markets trade higher and risk appetite returns, EUR trades at a one-year high versus the USD and a five month high versus the GBP, gold rises above $1000 an ounce and crude oil prices trade higher, CHF supported by report of rising Swiss exports and upgrade of Swiss GDP forecast, New Zealand dollar trades at a 13 month high versus USD and an 11 month high versus the JPY after the release of report that New Zealand's current account deficit shrank to its narrowest in more than four years and dairy giant Fonterra raises its payout to farmers, USD is also pressured by speculation that the Fed will maintain accommodative monetary policy well into 2010 and that G-20 may call for reduction of global trade imbalances that may cause further USD weakness
  • Focus turns to today's release Canada's retail sales and the start of the FOMC meeting, G-20 meeting set for September 24th and 25th focus on proposed new financial market regulation and global imbalances
  • The Asian Development Bank sees China's 2009 GDP at 8.2% in 2009 and 8.9% in 2010 raises developing Asia's growth forecast to 6.4% from 6%, warns that withdrawing stimulus to early could lead to a double dip recession
  • The New Zealand dollar surged in reaction to report that New Zealand's current-account fell to 5.9% of GDP, trade expected GDP debt ratio of -7.2% and Fonterra Dairy raised its payout to farmers by 12%
  • The Swiss government forecasts 2009 GDP at -1.7% compared to the original forecast of -2.7%, expects GDP to expand in 2010, Swiss July trade surplus widens as exports rise 2%, imports fell 2.5%, CHF higher
  • UK PM Brown says continued stimulus is needed for the global recovery and he does not see a quick exit strategy, GBP higher
  • ECB Weber says interest rates are appropriate and FX not out of line with stronger EU data, EUR higher
  • Pay-Net says that Canada's commercial lending is healthier than the US, CAD higher
  • US equity markets set to open higher, European equities 1% higher, Nikkei closed 73 points lower

Upcoming Events

  • US - Tuesday, no major US economic data is due for release, FOMC begins a two day policy meeting
  • CAN - Tuesday, July retail sales will be released expected at 0.6% compared to 1% last month

By Michael J. Malpede

Easy Forex

Michael J. Malpede is Chief Market Analyst with Easy-Forex® and has previously been featured on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg radio, Reuters, MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun Times, Toronto Star and Nikkei press. In analyzing the markets, he draws from 29 years of Foreign Exchange Research as a Foreign Exchange Analyst.

Please note that Forex trading (OTC Trading) involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone. This report is provided by Easy- Forex® for informative purposes only. In no way it is a recommendation by Easy-Forex® for you to engage in any trade. It is your sole responsibility and you will have no claims with regards to this report against Easy-Forex®. If you do not agree to this, you are strongly advised not to use this report. Hence, Easy-Forex® shall not be held responsible for any outcome of trading decisions, in regards with this report or similar reports.





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Household Incomes Fell in Five U.S. States in 2008, Census Says

By Timothy R. Homan

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Five U.S. states that were among the hardest hit by job losses and the construction slump also had declines in household incomes during the first year of the recession, according to a government report.

Arizona, California, Florida, Indiana and Michigan all saw median household incomes drop in 2008, the Census Bureau said yesterday in an annual report. Only one state had a decline the previous year.

The figures highlight concern that consumer spending may hamper a recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s. Falling home values and stock prices have fueled an $11.1 trillion loss in household wealth in the U.S. since the third quarter of 2007, before the recession began.

“Business profits are down considerably, so companies can’t pay the kind of wages that they did” earlier this decade, said Brad Kemp, director of regional economics at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. “Incomes are going to continue to be affected and be a drag on consumer spending.”

The census report also showed the foreign-born population in the U.S. last year dropped for the first time since 1970, to 37.9 million from 38 million. That same group represented 12.5 percent of the overall population, down from 12.6 percent in 2007. The number of non-citizens also fell, to 21.6 million in 2008 from 21.9 million the previous year.

Nationally, median household income last year fell 3.6 percent to $50,303, snapping three years of increases, the Census Bureau said this month in a separate report.

Maryland had the highest median household income, at $70,545, for the third consecutive year, followed by New Jersey and Connecticut, yesterday’s report showed. Mississippi had the lowest, at $37,790.

Five States Gain

Kansas, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York and Texas had increases in median household income last year compared with 2007. In the previous year, 33 states saw an increase.

Real per capita income for the U.S. as a whole declined by 3.1 percent last year to $26,964, according to an earlier census report.

Workers from the financial services industry to home construction lost their jobs as the recession took a toll. Since the slump began in December 2007, the U.S. has lost 6.9 million jobs. Payroll cuts peaked at 741,000 in January and have since subsided, with 216,000 job losses in August, according to the Labor Department.

California lost 462,000 jobs last year, the most of any state, according to the Labor Department. Florida was next with 375,000 cuts from payrolls, followed by Michigan with 204,000.

Engine of Growth

“The recession hit Florida harder than most states,” said Stan Smith, director of the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Housing was a major engine of growth. The decline in the housing market is a big reason incomes have dropped so much.”

Construction jobs accounted for 29 percent of all job losses in California and Florida, the Labor Department said.

“This has been a very difficult environment,” said Gary Aubuchon, president of Aubuchon Homes in Cape Coral, Florida. Home permits in the Fort Myers area were off as much as 98 percent last year from their peak, he said.

Aubuchon started selling a line of homes for under $200,000 on Labor Day, compared with its prior target of “primarily $400,000 and up,” he said.

In Michigan, declines in manufacturing payrolls contributed 31 percent of all job cuts. Manufacturing accounted for 57 percent of payroll declines in Indiana last year.

Whirlpool Cuts

Whirlpool Corp., the world’s largest appliance maker, is among those companies still eliminating positions. The Benton Harbor, Michigan-based company said Aug. 28 it will close its Evansville, Indiana, manufacturing plant, resulting in the elimination of 1,100 jobs.

Home prices declined 18 percent in 2008, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. So far this year, property values have dropped only 4.7 percent.

President Barack Obama in February signed into law a $787 billion stimulus package aimed at stabilizing the economy and creating or saving about 3.5 million jobs. So far, the bill has created or saved as many as 1.1 million jobs, the White House said this month.

A new topic in the American Community Survey by the Census Bureau measured the percentage of state residents who lacked health insurance. In Texas, 24.1 percent went without health care in 2008, while only 4.1 percent in Massachusetts were uninsured, the report showed.

The number of people without health insurance coverage rose to 46.3 million last year from 45.7 million in 2007, the census said this month. The uninsured still accounted for 15.4 percent of the population, the same as in 2007, according to the Census figures.

Insurance Tax Proposal

In order to cut costs and make health care accessible to all Americans, Obama and Democratic lawmakers have proposed taxing private insurers, trimming spending in the federal Medicare program for the elderly and disabled and creating a more affordable public plan to expand coverage.

Data from the census report is used to help determine the annual distribution of more than $400 billion in federal and state funds, the Census Bureau said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net





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Italy Unemployment Rate Rises to 3 1/2-Year High

By Lorenzo Totaro

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Italy’s unemployment rate rose in the second quarter to the highest since 2005 as Europe’s fourth- largest economy failed to recover from its worst recession since World War II.

Joblessness increased to a seasonally-adjusted 7.4 percent from 7.3 percent in the previous quarter, the national statistics office Istat said in Rome today. That was less than the median forecast of 7.7 percent in a survey of 14 economists by Bloomberg News. The rise in the jobless rate was contained by more people giving up looking for work, and the report showed the number of employed fell the most since 1994.

“There are signs of an economic pickup this year, but the road to full recovery looks like a bumpy one,” said Luigi Speranza, an economist at BNP Paribas in London. “Companies will be cautious in hiring staff and may keep firing people, with serious effects on the labor market.”

Italy contracted for a fifth-straight quarter in the three months through June while Germany and France, the euro region’s biggest economies, both expanded 0.3 percent. Companies such as carmaker Fiat SpA reduced output and jobs, while banks including UniCredit SpA, the country’s biggest lender, plan further cuts for this year and next.

The number of employed fell by 1.6 percent, the biggest drop in the number of employed since 1994. That was the equivalent of 378,000 losing their jobs in the second quarter, today’s report said. The number of unemployed rose to 1.84 million from 1.7 million a year earlier.

Job Cuts

The unemployment rate may exceed 10 percent in 2010 should the recovery remain weak, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a Sept. 16 report. The rate will reach 9.5 percent next year with the economy expanding 0.8 percent, employer lobby Confindustria forecast this month.

UniCredit has reduced staff in the retail unit in Italy and abroad by 1,800 since the beginning of the year. It will cut another 400 jobs by year-end and about 2,000 in 2010, Deputy Chief Executive Officer Roberto Nicastro said in a Sept. 18 interview in Bologna, Italy.

Fiat, the country’s biggest carmaker and private employer, said on July 22 that it plans to continue cutting jobs to help reduce costs. Fiat, which runs five auto plants in Italy with a workforce of 31,000, will end car production at a factory in Sicily and reduce positions at its CNH Global NV agricultural and construction-equipment unit, the Turin-based manufacturer said on June 18.

Earlier this year, the government introduced subsidies that expire at the end of December for people who scrap their old car for a new, energy-efficient model. Fiat Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne said on Sept. 16 that if the incentives are not renewed next year, “we’re just going to have to shut down plants and idle them until demand resumes.”

‘Serious’ Problems

Italy’s business confidence reached a 10-month high in August on signs that the incentives boosted orders. Industrial production rose more than economists forecast in July, adding to evidence that the recession may start to ease later this year.

The pace of growth of Europe’s fourth-biggest economy has lagged behind its peers in the euro-region for more than a decade as investments, imports and exports declined, aggravating the effects of waning productivity and competitiveness.

Economists such as Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, remain pessimistic about the future of Italian growth. “Unless economic reforms and structural reforms are undertaken at a faster rate, economic growth is going to remain low and problems with unemployment and the job market will remain serious,” Roubini said in a Sept 4 interview.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lorenzo Totaro in Rome at ltotaro@bloomberg.net



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China Investment Drive May Imperil Local Governments

By Bloomberg News

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese local governments risk insolvency by guaranteeing bank loans to investment projects, a domestic newspaper reported, citing a central bank official.

Investment vehicles backed by local governments pose fiscal and financial risks, the 21st Century Business Herald reported today, citing Vice Governor Liu Shiyu. He spoke at a company event in Beijing yesterday, the paper said. A central bank spokesman couldn’t be contacted by phone this evening to confirm the comments.

China’s central government is funding a third of a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package that spans spending on roads, railways and low-cost homes and runs through 2010. Local governments are putting land, shares or other assets into investment vehicles that borrow from banks for fixed-asset projects, the newspaper said.

“The central government should account for a greater share of the funds needed for the stimulus projects or open the bond market to local governments to stem risks building up in the banking system,” said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong.

Local-government liabilities tripled to 5.26 trillion yuan as of May 31 from the start of 2008, the Guangzhou-based 21st Century Business Herald reported, citing data from unidentified banks.

Budget Deficit

China plans a record 980 billion yuan budget deficit this year, including 200 billion yuan of bonds sold on behalf of local authorities, who can’t sell the securities themselves.

The central government should let qualified local authorities sell municipal bonds rather than rely on bank loans, central bank official Liu said, according to the newspaper.

Government-led investment is driving the recovery of the world’s third-biggest economy after exports slumped because of the financial crisis. China needs to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in a statement on its Web site today.

The Asian Development Bank raised today its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 8.2 percent from a previous estimate of 7 percent. It increased its 2010 forecast to 8.9 percent from 8 percent.

--Li Yanping. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Stephanie Phang.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or yli16@bloomberg.net





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India ‘Waking Up’ to Extended Period of High Growth, UBS Says

By Kartik Goyal

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- India may be “waking up” to an extended period of high-trend economic expansion that will cause incomes to triple over the next decade, according to UBS AG.

“India is about to resume an extended period of high economic growth,” Philip Wyatt, a senior economist at UBS in Hong Kong, said in a report today. The pace of expansion may average about 8.6 percent annually over the next 10 to 15 years.

Faster growth is crucial to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s goal of cutting poverty in a nation where three quarters of the population of 1.2 billion live on less than $2 a day. Singh, who won a second five-year term in May, has said that India needs a sustained expansion rate of 9 percent to improve the livelihoods of the poor and create more jobs.

A higher savings rate, helped by a younger population and export-led industrialization are among the main factors that will drive a sustainable step-up in economic growth, UBS said.

“We think the stage is set for rising manufactured exports and industrialization, possibly explosively, over the next 10 to 15 years as India takes some export share away from China’s overarching dominance,” Wyatt said.

Companies including Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor Corp. and other car manufacturers have announced plans to spend more than $6 billion through 2012 to build factories in India.

Suzuki Motor Corp., Hyundai Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. are making India a hub for overseas sales, helped by cheaper labor and a surging domestic market.

Exports Double

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.’s exports more than doubled to 79,860 units this year. The company aims to ship 130,000 vehicles in the year to March, 86 percent more than last year, according to Chairman R.C. Bhargava.

A younger population will also drive growth, Wyatt said. “The dependency ratio continues to drop and has at least another 10 years worth of distance to go before flattening out like Japan in the 1960s or Korea in the 1970s,” he said.

India’s per capita income may triple in the next ten years and rise by about 5 times by 2025 to well over $10,000 from the present $3,000, Wyatt wrote. Higher incomes will result in higher consumption for items like steel, cement and oil, he said.

“If we take individual commodities like steel, cement and oil we can observe that India is entering the zone of accelerating consumption per capita,” according to UBS.

India’s $1.2 trillion economy expanded 6.7 percent in the year to March 2009. That compares with an average growth rate of about 8.8 percent in the previous five years.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at kgoyal@bloomberg.net





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Russia to Resume State Asset Sales to Bolster Budget

By Hans Nichols and Alex Nicholson

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Russia will resume asset sales as the government struggles with its first budget deficit in a decade, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said.

The government has about 5,500 enterprises that can be converted into joint stock companies and sold starting as early as this year, Shuvalov said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Washington. Russia may also sell part of its stakes in companies that are already publicly traded, including OAO Rosneft, the country’s biggest oil producer, he said.

“Now is the time that we can return” to privatization, Shuvalov said after talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, late yesterday. “When it was very good, the market, we were collecting money for our reserves and we didn’t talk much about privatization. It was almost dead.”

The world’s largest energy exporter is struggling to meet spending commitments and contain its budget gap after the price of crude oil, the country’s main export earner, plunged by more than $100 a barrel in the second half of last year. The price of crude is now about $70 a barrel. The public deficit, the first since 1999, may reach 8.9 percent of gross domestic product, or about 3.4 trillion rubles ($112 billion) this year, the Finance Ministry said on Aug. 18.

Shuvalov, 42, said the government may start its new wave of selloffs this year, offering as much as 20 percent of OAO Sovcomflot, the shipper that merged with smaller rival OAO Novoship in 2007. The bulk of remaining sales will probably commence in the second half of 2010, with seaports, river ports and airports that need “huge amounts of investment,” he said.

Oil Licenses

Russia’s last major asset sale was in 2007, when VTB Group, the country’s second-largest bank, raised $8 billion in the biggest initial public offering of the year. Rosneft’s IPO a year earlier raised $10.6 billion.

Shuvalov said the government also plans to raise money by auctioning off licenses for untapped deposits of oil, natural gas and metals. “We have good assets,” he said.

Russia’s economy shrank a record 10.9 percent in the second quarter as industry floundered and companies struggled with slumping demand for the their products at home and abroad. Overdue bank loans reached 5.5 percent of total lending in July, compared with 5 percent a month earlier, according to the central bank. Overdue corporate loans jumped to 5.3 percent in July from 4.8 percent in June.

Banking Crisis?

“In spring, when the decline curve was very deep, we thought that the portfolio of bad debts will be enormous,” Shuvalov said. Now bad corporate debt accounts for no more than 5 percent of the total, compared with some analysts’ forecasts for a 10 percent delinquency rate by autumn, he said.

“Possibly we will face another phase of banking crisis,” Shuvalov said. “Its possible and we have prepared ourselves, but it’s not happening. Now there is no problem.”

To contact the reporters on this story: To contact the reporter on this story: Hans Nichols in Washington at Hnichols2@bloomberg.net; Alex Nicholson in Moscow at anicholson6@bloomberg.net.





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Fed Effort to Stoke Growth May Be Undermined by ‘Tight’ Credit

By Scott Lanman

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to stoke a U.S. economic recovery may be undermined by the central bank’s other goal of restoring the banking system to health.

The Federal Open Market Committee, at the conclusion tomorrow of a two-day meeting, will probably maintain its assessment that “tight” bank credit is impeding growth. Lending contracted for five straight weeks through Sept. 9, a drop that in part reflects Fed orders to banks to raise more capital and toughen lending standards, analysts say.

A failure to restore the flow of bank credit carries the risk that the economic recovery will be slower than the Fed anticipates, or even that the U.S. lapses into another recession, economists say. That would make it more likely the Fed will keep its main interest rate close to zero for a longer period.

“They would be absolutely delighted if banks went out and raised a lot more private capital and then began to lend more,” said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser with New York-based Soleil Securities Corp. “Until that happens, the Fed has to continue to try to encourage economic growth through easy money.”

The FOMC, composed of Bernanke, Fed governors and regional Fed-bank presidents, is expected to release a statement at about 2:15 p.m. New York time. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News unanimously forecast the Fed will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

The central bank may also decide to extend the end date of its $1.45 trillion program to buy housing debt, now set to expire at the end of the year, and to gradually reduce the size of the purchases.

Lending Contracts

Banks have become more careful about lending. A Fed report released last week shows banks had $6.85 trillion of loans and leases outstanding to businesses and households as of Sept. 9, down for a fifth straight week and below the record $7.32 trillion in October 2008. Real estate loans, the biggest portion, stood at $3.79 trillion, up $7.5 billion from the prior week while down from a peak of $3.9 trillion.

The Fed’s second-quarter survey of senior loan officers, released Aug. 17, showed U.S. banks tightened standards on all types of loans and said they expect to maintain strict criteria on lending until at least the second half of 2010.

“While it is important for economic recovery that lenders provide credit to worthy households and businesses, they also must maintain enough capital to withstand losses -- even if economic conditions turn out to be worse than anticipated,” San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said in a Sept. 14 speech.

‘Far From Healthy’

“The financial system is still far from healthy and tight credit is likely to put a damper on growth for some time to come,” Yellen continued.

Fed-led stress tests of the 19 biggest U.S. banks earlier this year were designed to ensure that the firms had enough capital to withstand a more severe economic downturn. The tests found that the banks need to raise $75 billion to withstand potential losses.

Separately, regional and some smaller U.S. banks may need $12 billion to $14 billion in additional capital to cope with troubled loans still on their books, the Congressional Oversight Panel said in August.

Banks have a Nov. 9 deadline from the Fed to raise the amount of capital determined by the stress tests. Bernanke said in June that the 10 firms that required capital had raised or announced actions to generate $48 billion of new common equity. The firms included Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and GMAC LLC.

Mortgage Rules

The Fed has taken other steps to make sure banks avoid riskier loans. In July 2008, it tightened mortgage rules by requiring lenders to determine a borrower’s ability to repay and barring other practices that led to the collapse of the housing market.

Minimum regulatory-capital requirements may change as officials in the U.S. and abroad craft new financial rules. Consumers are less credit-worthy as the job market deteriorates and after a record loss of wealth from plunging share prices and real estate values.

Rising unemployment will slow the pace of the recovery, Bernanke said on Sept. 15.

“Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time,” Bernanke said in response to a question after a speech in Washington. Fed officials in June predicted that GDP will expand 2.1 percent to 3.3 percent next year after shrinking 1.5 percent to 1 percent this year, according to the central tendency of their forecasts.

Banks have plenty of reasons to hold back on lending, analysts say.

Behind on Payments

Americans fell behind on their mortgage payments at a record pace in the second quarter, with delinquencies rising to 9.24 percent, according to an August report by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“Consumers aren’t necessarily that creditworthy a proposition right now,” said John Ryding, chief economist and founder of RDQ Economics LLC in New York.

Falling values of commercial real estate are also a problem for banks, with an “uncertain degree of losses” to come, said Ryding, a former Fed researcher.

“Banks are all trying to ratchet back their credit exposure,” said Eric Hovde, chief executive officer of Hovde Capital Advisors LLC, who manages about $1 billion with a concentration in financial and real-estate related companies and is chairman of Sunwest Bank in Tustin, California.

Bigger Down Payments

For instance, JPMorgan Chase & Co. now requires mortgage borrowers to make bigger down payments than before the crisis, and it has stopped allowing so-called stated-income loans that don’t require documentation of earnings, said Tom Kelly, a spokesman.

Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse in New York, predicts the lending lull will end within a few months after businesses finish depleting inventories and financial firms better determine how much in capital governments will require them to have.

“Bank lending is going to pick up all by itself as banks go looking for ways to add more juice to their earnings profile,” said Soss, who used to work as an aide to former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. Soss said he forecasts 3.5 percent economic growth in 2010, on the high end of analyst projections.

The 24-company KBW Bank Index rallied 69 percent from March 31 through yesterday as concern faded that lenders might not survive the economic slump.

‘Creditworthy’ Borrowers

Even as banks hold back, Fed policy makers have been trying to encourage borrowing to stoke an economic recovery. The Fed and other U.S. regulators told banks in November to maintain lending to “creditworthy” borrowers while warning against paying dividends that would cut funds available for loans.

In March, the Fed started an emergency program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, to restart the loan- securitization markets that help form the so-called “shadow banking” system. That has helped generate investor demand for debt tied to auto and credit-card loans, unfreezing part of the credit markets.

“The question for the Fed, which is a very difficult question, is: what is the appropriate level of bank lending?” said Joseph Mason, a Louisiana State University banking professor and former economist at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. “It’s not bubble lending, it’s some subset of that. That is where the art of central banking lies.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net.





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Pound Trades Near Six-Month Low Amid Budget-Deficit Concern

By Morwenna Coniam and Anna Rascouet

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The pound traded near its lowest level in almost six months against the euro on concern that the widening U.K. budget deficit will hurt demand among investors for the country’s assets.

Sterling declined earlier against the 16-nation currency as Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the global economy has yet to feel the biggest impact of government-led spending programs to boost demand. Stimulus measures put into place by Brown between 2008 and 2010 totaled 3 percent of the U.K.’s gross domestic product, according to the International Monetary Fund.

“The U.K. has got one of the worst fiscal positions in Europe,” said Ian Stannard, a currency strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA. “Sterling is coming back under pressure. It’s going to struggle to participate in any rebound in the pro- cyclical currencies. Investors will be looking elsewhere.”

The pound traded at 90.68 pence per euro as of 1:47 p.m. in London, from 90.55 pence yesterday. It earlier touched 90.821, its weakest level since April 9. Sterling rose 0.7 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.6327.

The government, which is planning to raise 220 billion pounds ($359 billion) this fiscal year, may boost sales to 237 billion pounds in the fiscal year ending 2011, according to Citigroup Inc.

The pound lost almost 6 percent against the euro since June, after climbing 12 percent in the first half, as the Bank of England increased the size of an asset-purchase program designed to haul the economy out of the recession.

Parity with Euro

The pound may weaken to parity with the euro “towards the end of the year,” Stannard said.

Investors should sell the euro against the pound with a target of 84 pence, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts wrote in a note today, predicting “a relative tightening in financial conditions in the U.K. versus the euro zone.”

Britain’s budget deficit next year will exceed 12 percent of GDP, the most in the G-20, according to the IMF. The Bank of England said yesterday “the long-run sustainable real exchange rate” for sterling may have fallen during the financial crisis.

The yield on the two-year gilt was little changed at 0.85 percent. The yield on the 10-year security rose 3 basis points to 3.77 percent. The difference in yield, or spread, between the two securities was at 291 basis points, near the widest since at least January 1992, when Bloomberg began compiling the data.

To contact the reporters on this story: Morwenna Coniam in London at mconiam@bloomberg.net To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Rascouet in London arascouet@bloomberg.net;





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Asia Will Expand Faster This Year, Next, ADB Says

By Karl Lester M. Yap

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Asian Development Bank raised its economic growth forecast for the region on strengthening expansions in China, India and Indonesia, and said it’s too early for governments to withdraw stimulus policies.

Asia, excluding Japan, will grow 3.9 percent in 2009, faster than a March estimate of 3.4 percent, the Manila-based institution said in a report today. Growth may accelerate in 2010 to 6.4 percent, it said.

The region is leading the world’s emergence from its deepest recession since the 1930s after Asian policy makers cut interest rates to unprecedented lows and governments announced more than $950 billion of stimulus measures, helping the global economy avert a spiral into another Great Depression.

The ADB said withdrawing the measures too soon may derail the “fragile” recovery, echoing comments by the Obama administration and European officials ahead of this week’s Group of 20 nations summit in Pittsburgh.

Asia’s growth “is a result of synchronized expansionary policies” in the region, said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Forecast Singapore Pte. The expansion doesn’t mean that the region is “decoupling” from the rest of the world, he said.

Asian governments may begin rolling back stimulus programs as early as the first quarter of 2010, Varathan said. “They may not be wrong but the risk is that it could be a tad premature especially if they do it all at the same time,” he added.

World Economy

Confidence in the world economy held at a record high in September after reports suggested the recession is over and officials said they won’t rush to withdraw stimulus, a Bloomberg survey of users on six continents showed Sept. 17.

Recovery in Asia also hinges on the revival of growth in Europe and the U.S., as this will affect the region’s export- dependent economies, the ADB said. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week the recession in the U.S. has probably ended.

“Any slippage in the major industrial economies’ recovery would delay the region’s return to its long-term growth path,” the ADB said.

Inflation in Asia may average 1.5 percent in 2009 compared with a March forecast of 2.4 percent, the ADB said. It expects inflation to accelerate to 3.4 percent next year as growth strengthens.

Monetary Policies

“Central banks in the region will therefore want to put a tight watch on monetary policies so as not to encourage asset bubbles that would inflate prices to levels that are no longer justified by fundamentals,” the ADB said.

South Korea’s financial regulator said earlier this month it will tighten restrictions on mortgages for people buying homes in the capital and surrounding areas to slow the increase in lending. Loans to households in August climbed 3 trillion won ($2.5 billion) to 405.1 trillion won, according to the Bank of Korea.

China will expand 8.2 percent this year, compared with the March forecast of 7 percent, the ADB said. India’s economy will grow 6 percent this year, up one percentage point from the earlier estimate, it said.

China’s August industrial production rose 12.3 percent from a year earlier, the most since the same month in 2008, while India’s factory output increased for a seventh straight month in July. China’s expansion follows a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package, record lending and a rebound in property investment and sales that have countered a slump in exports.

Indonesia, South Korea

The ADB forecast Indonesia’s economy will expand 4.3 percent this year, compared with the March estimate of 3.6 percent. South Korea’s economy will shrink 2 percent in 2009, compared with the earlier predicted 3 percent contraction, it said.

In Southeast Asia, the ADB forecasts the economies of Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore will shrink this year, dragging growth in the region to 0.1 percent in 2009. The East Asian economies of Taiwan and Hong Kong will also contract, it said.

Some of the world’s biggest financial companies including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed as banks and other financial institutions reported about $1.6 trillion of writedowns and losses since the start of 2007. Asian banking systems “have not buckled under the strain of the crisis of confidence and there are signs that lending is reviving,” the ADB said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Karl Lester M. Yap in Manila at kyap5@bloomberg.net.





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Euro Set to Reach 5-Week High Versus Yen: Technical Analysis

By Ron Harui

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may extend its rally to a five-week high of 137.50 yen, Citigroup Inc. said, citing trading patterns.

Europe’s currency is likely to gain versus the yen after rising above the “neckline” of a “double-bottom” pattern, Citigroup analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote in a research note yesterday

“The daily chart shows the rally through the double bottom neckline at 134.41,” Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citigroup, and Devani said in the note. “A test of 137.50 is expected.”

The euro traded at 135.01 yen as of 12:50 p.m. in Tokyo from 134.96 yen in New York yesterday, when it rose to 135.48 yen, the highest level since Aug. 25. The 137.50 level would be the strongest since Aug. 13. The currency has risen 1.1 percent in September, heading for its first monthly gain since June.

A double bottom occurs when a currency makes two consecutive troughs of about the same depth, and indicates it may rebound. The neckline passes through the highest point of the double bottom.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net





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Canada’s Dollar Appreciates Most in Two Weeks on Risk Appetite

By Chris Fournier

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar appreciated the most in more than two weeks as a rally in commodities such as crude oil and gold boosted the outlook the nation’s exports.

The dollar rose for the first time in three days, gaining as much as 1.2 percent as global stocks rallied. The Asian Development Bank said regional economies will expand faster than initially forecast this year. Canada derives more than half its export revenue from raw materials.

“Risk is back on,” said Jack Spitz, managing director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto. “Commodities and energy are trading higher. The U.S. dollar is under pressure after two days of short squaring. It’s back to a much more bullish environment for the Canadian dollar.”

The Canadian currency strengthened 1.1 percent to C$1.0676 per U.S. dollar at 8:24 a.m. in Toronto, from C$1.0791 yesterday and touched C$1.0661. One Canadian dollar buys 93.66 U.S. cents.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net





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Mexico, Chile, Brazil: Latin America Bond and Currency Preview

By Catarina Saraiva

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The following events and economic reports may influence trading in Latin American local bonds and currencies today. Bond yields and exchange rates are from the previous day’s session.

Mexico: August unemployment fell to 6 percent from 6.12 percent in July, according to the median forecast of 15 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The national statistics agency is set to release the report at 3:30 p.m. New York time.

The peso fell 0.8 percent to 13.3784 per dollar.

The yield on Mexico’s 10 percent bond due December 2024 rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 8.4 percent, according to Banco Santander SA.

Other prices in Latin American markets:

Argentina: The peso was little changed at 3.8376 per dollar.

The yield on the country’s inflation-linked peso bonds due in December 2033 fell 10 basis points to 11.22 percent, according to Citigroup Inc.’s local unit.

Brazil: The real lost 0.5 percent to 1.8168 per dollar.

The yield on the zero-coupon, real-denominated bond due in January 2010 rose four basis points to 8.74 percent, according to Bloomberg prices.

Chile: The peso strengthened 0.5 percent to 542.55 per dollar.

The yield for a basket of Chile’s 10-year peso bonds in inflation-linked currency units, called unidades de fomento, was little changed at 2.87 percent, according to Bloomberg composite prices.

Colombia: The peso climbed 0.9 percent to 1,933.84 per dollar.

The yield on Colombia’s benchmark 11 percent bonds due July 2020 fell eight basis points to 9.23 percent, according to Colombia’s stock exchange.

Peru: The sol weakened 0.2 percent to 2.8985 per dollar.

The yield on Peru’s 8.6 percent bond maturing August 2017 was little changed at 4.86 percent, according to Citigroup Inc.’s unit in Lima.

To contact the reporter on this story: Catarina Saraiva in New York at Asaraiva5@bloomberg.net.





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Dollar Falls as Signs of Global Recovery Spur Demand for Yield

By Anchalee Worrachate and Ron Harui

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar weakened for the first time in three days against the euro and fell to the lowest level in a year as signs that the global economy is recovering spurred investors to buy higher-yielding assets.

The U.S. currency declined the most versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars among major currencies after the Asian Development Bank said regional economies will expand this year faster than initially forecast. New Zealand’s dollar climbed to a more than 11-month high against the yen after the nation’s current-account deficit shrank to the narrowest level in more than four years.

“We expect to see further weakness in the dollar in coming months,” said Ian Stannard, a currency strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank. “There are a number of factors at work against the dollar, and those include improving global economic conditions and a return of risk appetite.”

The U.S. currency weakened to $1.4784 per euro at 8:08 a.m. in New York, from $1.4680 yesterday, after depreciating to $1.4821, the weakest level since Sept. 23, 2008. It declined to 91.38 yen, from 91.93, and to $1.6344 per pound, from $1.6217. The yen was at 135.10 per euro, compared with 134.96. BNP Paribas forecast the dollar will depreciate to $1.54 per euro and 85 yen by yen-end.

New Zealand’s dollar strengthened 1.5 percent to 65.99 yen, after climbing to 66.06, the highest level since Oct. 7. The kiwi rose 2.2 percent to 72.23 U.S. cents and touched the strongest level in more than a year. Australia’s dollar advanced 1.4 percent to 87.46 U.S. cents.

Asian Currencies

Most Asian currencies gained after the Asian Development Bank said in a report that Asia’s economies, excluding Japan, will grow 3.9 percent in 2009, faster than a March estimate of 3.4 percent. Growth may accelerate in 2010 to 6.4 percent, the bank said.

The region is leading the world’s emergence from the deepest recession since the 1930s after governments boosted spending, cut taxes and slashed interest rates. Withdrawing stimulus measures too early may derail the global recovery and lead to a protracted slowdown, the bank said.

China’s imports of coal more than tripled in August from a year earlier, reaching 11.77 million metric tons, data from the customs office showed today. The nation’s copper imports more than doubled from a year earlier.

The South Korean won was little changed at 1,203.75 per U.S. dollar, and the Singapore dollar advanced 0.5 percent to S$1.4125.

Stocks Advance

Stocks rose in Europe and Asia, reducing demand for the dollar as a refuge. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations added 0.9 percent to 1,140.75.

The VIX index, a measure of stock-market volatility known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, dropped 40 percent since the start of the year. The lower the index, the more inclined investors are to buy so-called risk assets such as stocks, commodities and higher-yielding currencies.

The dollar also weakened on speculation Group of 20 leaders, meeting in Pittsburgh on Sept. 24-25, will call for a reduction in global trade imbalances that may cause further gains in currencies against the dollar.

Policy makers need to promote a “sustained growth track and facilitate global adjustment, as well as structural reform which will need to be undertaken in both deficit and surplus countries,” Dimitri Soudas, a spokesman for Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, told reporters yesterday in Ottawa.

‘U.S. Imbalances’

“There’s talk that world leaders may seek to address the U.S. imbalances,” said Masashi Kurabe, head of currency sales and trading in Hong Kong at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan’s biggest publicly traded bank. “This may lead to weakness in the dollar.”

The U.S. trade deficit widened in July and imports gained by a record 4.7 percent, the Commerce Department said in Washington on Sept. 10. The gap between imports and exports increased 16 percent, the most in more than a decade.

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro and the yen, fell 0.8 percent to 76.168, snapping gains at two days.

Losses in the U.S. dollar were limited before the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting at which policy makers may discuss an exit from economic stimulus measures.

The Fed will keep its target rate for overnight bank loans at a range of zero to 0.25 percent at its two-day policy meeting starting today, according to all 93 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues may discuss how to wind down purchases of mortgage-backed securities.

‘Short Positions’

“We wait to see how much the Fed acknowledges the improvement in the data recently,” said John Horner, a currency strategist in Sydney at Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s largest foreign-exchange trader. “The risk is that dollar short positions get taken off prior to that event.” A short position is a bet an asset will decline.

New Zealand’s dollar rose for a second day versus the yen after Statistics New Zealand said the current-account deficit shrank to NZ$10.61 billion ($7.57 billion) in the 12 months ended June 30, from NZ$14.57 billion in the year through March. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a NZ$13.3 billion shortfall.

The annual deficit was 5.9 percent of gross domestic product, less than the 7.4 percent forecast by economists, and the least since the period ended September 2004.

“That’s the best number since September 2004 in GDP terms, a significant improvement,” said Imre Speizer, a market strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington. “Appetite for risk is pretty subdued, and till we get out of the FOMC meeting it will be hard for the global rally to take another step up.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Anchalee Worrachate at aworrachate@worrachate@bloomberg.net; Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net





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Sugar Rises in London, Ending Losing Streak, as Dollar Weakens

By M. Shankar

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- White sugar rose in London, ending a three-day losing streak, as a weaker dollar boosted commodities’ appeal as an alternative investment.

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s performance, fell for the first time in three days, sliding as much as 1 percent. It has dropped 6.4 percent this year. Raw materials from crude oil to copper gained, lifting the 24- contract S&P GSCI commodity index as much as 1.6 percent.

“There is the benefit from a weaker dollar,” Nicholas Snowdon, an analyst with Barclays Capital in London, said in a phone interview. “It could be seen as a sign of risk appetite improving.”

White, or refined, sugar for December delivery advanced $5, or 0.9 percent, to $578 a metric ton on the Liffe exchange at 11:45 a.m. local time. The contract rose as much as 1.4 percent, the biggest intraday gain since Sept. 16. Raw-sugar futures for October delivery climbed 0.9 percent to 22.06 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Sugar also has been lifted this year by the driest June in 83 years in India and too much rain in Brazil, crimping supply from the world’s biggest growers. Production of the sweetener will trail demand by 8.4 million tons in the year ending next September, the International Sugar Organization said Sept. 2.

“There is still plenty on a fundamental basis to support sugar,” Snowdon said.

Among other agricultural commodities traded on Liffe, robusta coffee for November delivery fell $16, or 1.1 percent, to $1,463 a ton, sliding for a third day.

Cocoa for December delivery climbed 32 pounds, or 1.6 percent, to 2,035 pounds ($3,322) a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: M. Shankar in London at mshankar@bloomberg.net





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Soybeans, Corn Advance as Weakness in Dollar Lures Importers

By Luzi Ann Javier

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans and corn rallied as a decline in the dollar made supplies from the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter of both crops, more attractive to investors and importers.

The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the value of the greenback against currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, fell for the first time in three days, shedding as much as 0.4 percent.

Weakness in the dollar “could be providing some strength” to grains and oilseeds today, Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney, said today.

Soybeans for November delivery added as much as 1 percent to $9.23 a bushel, ending two days of losses. The most-active contract traded at $9.185 in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade at 1:09 p.m. Singapore time.

Corn for December delivery advanced for the first time in five days, gaining as much as 1 percent to $3.29 a bushel, before trading at $3.18 at 1:02 p.m. Singapore time. Wheat for December delivery added 0.4 percent to $4.58 a bushel, ending four days of losses.

Australia, the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter, got rain in some grain states, helping boost output prospects ahead of harvests.

Storms dumped 10 millimeters (0.4 inch) to 30 millimeters of rain in South Australia state yesterday, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said today in a note to clients. Victoria state got as much as 40 millimeters in some parts, the bank said.

North Korea’s corn output may be 1.5 million tons this year, 40 percent less than its annual average, because of drought and fertilizer shortages, Yonhap News reported, citing Kim Soon Kwon, head of the Seoul-based International Corn Foundation.

Still, soybeans and corn futures may drop as warm weather in the Midwest, the largest U.S. growing region, helps advance crop development, increasing global supplies, Hassall said.

About 21 percent of the corn crop in the top 18 producing states in the U.S. was mature as of Sept. 20, up from 12 percent a week ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday. The 18 states accounted for 92 percent of last year’s corn acreage, it said.

Prices Damped

About 40 percent of the soybean crop in the 18 states was dropping leaves ahead of the harvest, up from 17 percent a week earlier, the USDA said. The 18 states accounted for 95 percent of last year’s soybean acreage, it said.

“If we don’t see any threats of freeze or frost, then I think you could see corn and soy prices remain damped leading up to the harvest,” Hassall said. “The weakness is flowing on to the wheat market as well.”

Soybean and corn crops in the Midwest “will continue to benefit from near- to above-normal temperatures for at least the next five to seven days, probably longer,” DTN Meteorlogix LLC said in a forecast yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net





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Oil Rises for First Time in Four Days on Dollar, U.S. Supplies

By Grant Smith

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first time in four days before a report forecast to show U.S. crude supplies contracting, while a weaker dollar boosted the investment appeal of commodities.

U.S. crude oil inventories declined a fourth week, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Official data showed net crude oil imports by China, Asia’s largest consumer, rose 18 percent to 17.92 million metric tons in August, the second highest on record.

“Sentiment about the economy is better than it was a few months ago,” said Sintje Diek, an analyst with HSH Nordbank in Hamburg. “I can imagine $70 or a bit above will persist for the next few weeks. The correlation between oil and the dollar is not as strong as a few weeks ago, but we see it again in play today.”

Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as $1.18, or 1.7 percent, to $70.89 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $70.86 at 1:08 p.m. London time. The contract expires today. The more widely traded November futures advanced $1.34 to $71.05.

Prices have gained 59 percent this year on speculation global fuel demand will recover as economies emerge from the recession, while a weakening dollar encouraged investors to buy commodities. Gold snapped a three-day decline, staying above $1,000 an ounce.

Crude Supplies

The dollar dropped to as low as $1.4822 per euro, its weakest against the single European currency in a year. The U.S. Federal Reserve is forecast to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to release a statement at about 2:15 p.m. New York time.

China’s net crude oil imports in August were second only to the record 19.2 million tons in July.

A weekly U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow may show crude oil inventories declined a fourth week, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Crude oil inventories fell 1.5 million barrels in the week to Sept. 18, from 332.8 million, according to the median of 11 estimates in a Bloomberg survey before the Energy Department’s weekly report. Nine of the analysts polled said stockpiles dropped and two forecast an increase.

Distillate fuel inventories probably increased 1.2 million barrels, the survey showed. Stockpiles, which include heating oil and diesel, were previously at 167.8 million barrels, the most since January 1983.

Gasoline Supply

Gasoline supplies are expected to have gained 200,000 barrels from 207.7 million the week before, which would be a third weekly increase, according to the median of responses.

Refineries operated at 85.9 percent of capacity last week, down 1 percentage point from the prior week, based on the median of survey responses. U.S. refineries usually shut processing units for maintenance in September and October as summer demand for gasoline wanes and before heating oil use rises in the winter.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report in Washington tomorrow. The industry- funded American Petroleum Institute will put out its own data later today.

Brent crude oil for November settlement rose as much as $1.16, or 1.7 percent, to $69.85 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It traded at $69.81 a barrel, up $1.12, at 1:06 p.m. in London.

“Yesterday, in the absence of positive new economic news, we saw the oil prices were a bit lower,” said David Moore, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. “Also, the fact that equity markets were off, that was also a negative for the oil price as well.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net;





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Stocks Rally Will End Within Six Months, Tice Says

By Sapna Maheshwari and Deirdre Bolton

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest U.S. stocks rally since the Great Depression will end within six months because the economy isn’t improving fast enough, said David Tice, Federated Investors Inc.’s chief portfolio strategist for bear markets.

Tice said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall below 400 points within 18 months, a level it hasn’t closed below since 1992. Tice said he has been “bloodied, but unbowed,” as the S&P 500 climbed as much as 58 percent from a 12-year low in March, an advance that he called a “sucker’s rally” in April.

“The economy is in really, really bad shape,” Tice said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “So many people are trying to be optimistic. We’ve gone from oversold to overbought.”

The Federated Prudent Bear Fund that Tice founded returned 27 percent last year as the S&P 500 plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937.

The S&P 500’s six-month rally pushed its valuation to almost 20 times the reported earnings from continuing operations of its companies, the highest level since 2004, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg. The index traded at its lowest price relative to profits in 24 years in March.

Government stimulus money is making the economy look healthier than it is, Tice said. He said the “entire financial system is operating in the good graces of government intervention.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Sapna Maheshwari in New York at smaheshwar11@bloomberg.net





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German Stocks Advance, Led by Lufthansa, Salzgitter, Daimler

By Daniela Silberstein

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- German stocks climbed for the first time in three days, with the benchmark DAX Index resuming its six-month rally, on signs the global economy is improving.

Deutsche Lufthansa AG climbed 3.7 percent after Europe’s second-largest airline had its share-price estimate raised at CA Cheuvreux. Salzgitter AG advanced 2.7 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG lifted its share-price projection for the steelmaker. Daimler AG rose 2 percent after having its price estimate raised.

The benchmark DAX Index added 1.3 percent to 5,741 at 12:27 p.m. in Frankfurt. The measure has surged 57 percent since March 6 after companies reported better-than-estimated earnings and France and Germany unexpectedly exited recessions. The broader HDAX Index also increased 1.3 percent today.

The Asian Development Bank said the region’s economy, excluding Japan, will grow 3.9 percent in 2009, faster than a March estimate of 3.4 percent. Separately, Switzerland’s government also raised its forecast for the country’s economy and expects it to return to growth next year.

Lufthansa climbed 3.7 percent to 12.39 euros as Cheuvreux raised its share-price estimate to 15 euros from 11 euros. The bank also increased its 2010 earnings estimates for the industry in Europe and now expects “break-even or higher depending on the airline.”

Salzgitter

Salzgitter added 2.7 percent to 70.65 euros. Credit Suisse raised its share-price estimate for Germany’s second- largest steelmaker to 97 euros from 75 euros.

Larger rival ThyssenKrupp AG increased 1.8 percent to 24.60 euros. Basic resources shares climbed as prices of copper, lead, nickel and tin rose in London. Silver and gold also increased.

Daimler advanced 2 percent to 33.72 euros as Citigroup Inc. lifted its share-price projection for the world’s second-biggest maker of luxury cars to 36 euros from 34 euros.

Continental AG climbed 3.5 percent to 37.67 euros, the first gain in four days. Citigroup lifted its share-price estimate for the car-parts maker to 40 euros from 30 euros.

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG climbed 1.9 percent to 34.95 euros. The world’s largest luxury-car maker expects its Spartanburg, South Carolina factory will reach full technical capacity at the middle of next year and is in talks about raising Chinese production, Handelsblatt said, citing board member Frank-Peter Arndt.

Commerzbank AG gained 0.8 percent to 8.78 euros. Germany’s second-largest bank should be profitable in eastern Europe by 2011 at the latest thanks to cost reduction and overhaul measures, Boersen Zeitung reported, citing Andre Carls, head of the lender’s operations in the region.

The following stocks also rose or fell in German markets. Symbols are in parentheses after company names.

Centrotherm Photovoltaics AG (CTN GY) rallied 1.93 euros, or 6.1 percent, to 33.52. The solar-cell machinery maker was rated “buy” in new coverage at Kepler Equities.

GEA Group AG (G1A GY) added 61 cents, or 4.3 percent, to 14.69 euros. The company whose machines milk a third of the world’s dairy cows said it will streamline its operations and cut the number of divisions to five to help cut production costs.

HeidelbergCement AG (HEI GY) jumped 2.26 euros, or 5.2 percent, to 45.98. Germany’s largest cement supplier was raised to “add” from “neutral” at WestLB AG, which said that cash inflow from the company’s share sale will help to reduce net debt “substantially.”

Q-Cells SE (QCE GY) gained 25 cents, or 1.8 percent, to 13.90 euros. Germany’s largest solar company won’t cut more jobs at its Bitterfeld, Germany plant as the site’s two new production lines are up to date, Financial Times Deutschland said, citing Chief Executive Officer Charles Anton Milner.

Separately, HSBC Holdings Plc raised its share-price projection to 14 euros from 11 euros.

Tognum AG (TGM GY) gained 23 cents, or 2 percent, to 11.52 euros. The diesel-engine maker partly owned by Daimler won a contract to supply MTU engines for the German Navy’s new combat group support vessel.

Wacker Chemie AG (WCH GY) added 1.22 euros, or 1.2 percent to 102.71. The maker of materials used in microchips had its share-price estimate raised to 125 euros from 110 euros at HSBC.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net.



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U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise; S&P 500 Poised to Resume Rally

By Adam Haigh and Rita Nazareth

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures rose, indicating the market may resume a six-month rally, amid signs the global economy is improving and analyst upgrades of companies from U.S. Steel Corp. to Hewlett-Packard Co.

U.S. Steel Corp., the largest U.S.-based steelmaker, gained 2.5 percent after Bank of America Corp. raised its rating on the shares and said the company may return to profit next year. Hewlett-Packard, the world’s largest personal-computer maker, added 2.2 after being raised to “outperform” at Credit Suisse Group AG. Newmont Mining Corp. and ConocoPhillips added more than 0.8 percent as metals and crude oil prices climbed.

“The stock rally will keep going and any correction will be muted,” said James Dunigan, the chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services Group Inc.’s wealth-management unit, which oversees $100 billion in Philadelphia. “The appetite for riskier assets will continue to increase. There’s a lot of cash on the sidelines, corporate America has been very diligent on expenses and economic activity is improving globally.”

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December rose 0.6 percent to 1,066.2 at 9 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.5 percent to 9,764. Nasdaq- 100 Index futures added 0.5 percent to 1,736.25. Stocks in Europe and Asia increased today.

Growth Forecast Raised

The Asian Development Bank raised its economic growth forecast for the region on strengthening expansions in China, India and Indonesia, predicting Asia, excluding Japan, will grow 3.9 percent in 2009. The Group of 20 country leaders will meet in Pittsburgh on Sept. 24-25 to cement a plan to hammer out an accord to prevent a repeat of the worst crisis since the Great Depression and ensure a sustained recovery.

Speculation that government measures will help revive the economy and better-than-estimated earnings at companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Johnson & Johnson has spurred a 57 percent rebound in the S&P 500 from its 12-year low on March 9.

U.S. Steel added 2.5 percent to $49.20 after Bank of America raised its recommendation to “neutral” from “underperform,” saying the company “should return” to profitability in 2010.

Hewlett-Packard rose 2.2 percent to $47.39 after being raised to “outperform” from “neutral” at Credit Suisse Group AG, according to a report dated today.

Newmont, the biggest U.S. gold producer, rallied 2 percent to $45.29. ConocoPhillips, the third-largest U.S. oil company, added 0.8 percent to $46.52. Copper rose for a second day, while crude oil climbed above $70 a barrel in New York. Gold increased, ending a three-day decline, as the dollar weakened against major global currencies, boosting the appeal of precious metals.

Macy’s Upgrade

Macy’s Inc. jumped 6.2 percent to $18.90 in early trading after Citigroup Inc. upgraded the second-biggest U.S. department store company to “buy” from “hold,” citing expectations for increasing revenue.

American International Group Inc. surged 13 percent to $54.50. The insurer bailed out by the U.S. extended its rally for a second day after Representative Edolphus Towns, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said he’d give “serious consideration” to a plan to ease the terms of the company’s $182.5 billion bailout.

CarMax Inc. climbed 7.5 percent to $20.77. The biggest U.S. used car dealer said it had a second-quarter profit of 46 cents a share. Analysts estimated 18 cents a share in a Bloomberg survey.

ConAgra Foods Inc. gained 0.8 percent to $22.50. The maker of Healthy Choice dinners said profit from continuing operations rose to 38 cents a share, excluding some items, from 27 cents a year earlier. The average analyst estimate was 34 cents. Profit for the year that ends in May 2010, excluding some items, will “approach” $1.70 a share, the company said. ConAgra in June had forecast $1.63 to $1.66. Analysts, on average, predicted $1.66.

‘Over the Worst’

“The rally will continue for a while,” said Christian Blaabjerg, a Copenhagen-based strategist at Saxo Bank A/S. “The G-20 will come out as a unit and say we are over the worst and a more prosperous time is ahead,” he told Bloomberg Television.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to stoke an economic recovery may be undermined by the central bank’s other goal of restoring the banking system to health. The Federal Open Market Committee, at the conclusion tomorrow of a two-day meeting, will probably maintain its assessment that “tight” bank credit is impeding growth.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News unanimously forecast the Fed will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged tomorrow following a two-day meeting.

U.S. bank shares are set to drop because loans made for commercial real estate will sour and lenders will need to raise more capital to cover credit losses, according to Mike Mayo, an analyst at CLSA Ltd.

Mayo’s Bank Call

Regional banks will perform the worst among U.S. lenders because they have the biggest exposure to loans for commercial real estate, Mayo said today at a conference hosted by his company in Hong Kong. The global economic slowdown may still cause another corporate failure in the vein of Enron Corp. or WorldCom Inc., he said.

Officials may soon ask banks to bail out the government, The New York Times reported. Senior regulators say they are seriously considering a plan to have the nation’s healthy banks lend billions of dollars to rescue the insurance fund that protects bank depositors. That would enable the fund, which is rapidly running out of money because of a wave of bank failures, to continue to rescue the sickest banks.

The biggest rally in U.S. stocks since the Great Depression will end within six months because the economy isn’t improving fast enough to justify prices, said David Tice, Federated Investors Inc.’s chief portfolio strategist for bear markets.

“The economy is in really, really bad shape,” Tice said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “So many people are trying to be optimistic. We’ve gone from oversold to overbought.”

Tice said the S&P 500 will fall below 400 points within 18 months and he feels “bloodied, but unbowed” after the index rallied as much as 58 percent from a 12-year low on March 9.

To contact the reporters on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net.





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