Economic Calendar

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Daily Technical Strategist

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Feb 12 09 13:43 GMT |

Today's Focus: GBPUSD & EURUSD

  • GBPUSD: Price Collapse Targeting The 1.4045 Level.
  • EURUSD: Vulnerable To The Downside.

GBPUSD

As a third-day of downside weakness is in progress, further declines targeting its Jan'2002 low at 1.4045 is now envisaged. This is coming on the heels of its Wednesday weakness through the 1.4352 level, its Dec 31'08 low following its recent recovery failure at the 1.4986 level on Feb 09'09.We maintain our medium to longer term bearishness on the pair and see risk for further downside weakness through the earlier mentioned support triggering lower prices towards its YTD low at 1.3504.Both its daily RSI and Stochastics are trending lower supporting this view.However,while a climb back above the 1.4352 level, its Dec 31'08 low and the 1.4578 level, its Feb 04'09 high will halt the present downside weakness, the 1.4981 level, its Jan 16'09 high must be recaptured to invalidate our downside view and bring further gains higher towards the 1.5374 level, its Jan 08'09 high and then the 1.5484 level, representing its .382 Ret (1.8669 to 1.3504 decline).All in all, with continued declines seen, the pair is now at risk of heading further lower.

Support Comments
1.3504 YTD low
1.4045 Jan'2002 low
1.3682 Jun'2001 low


Resistance Comments
1.4352 Dec 31'08 low
1.4578 Feb 04'09 high
1.4981 Jan 16'09 high

EURUSD

While the pair continues to hold above its broken falling channel top, loss of momentum at 1.3093 level continues to increase risk of lower prices towards the 1.2766 level, its Jan 23'09 low ahead of the 1.2706 level, its Feb 02'09 low. This level which turned the pair higher the past week is now a trigger to further downside weakness. Penetrating and maintaining below that level will call for a decline towards the 1.2551 level, its Dec 04'08 low with a breach of there setting the stage for a retarget of its 2008 swing low standing at 1.2330.Its daily stochastics is pointing lower suggesting further downside pressure could be seen.On the upside, the 1.3000/1.2993 level, its psycho level/Feb 06'09 high comes in as the first resistance with a cut through there pushing the pair further higher towards its Feb 04'09/Nov 25'08 high at 1.3071/81 and next its Jan 27/28'09 highs at 1.3327/30.Although this zone is expected to turn down the pair, if a break through there materializes we could see price extension targeting the 1.3478 level, which represents its .382 Ret(1.4719-1.2706 decline) with a penetration of there bringing further upside gains towards its .50 Ret at 1.3716.On the whole, although the pair has broken and held above its falling channel, it remains vulnerable to the downside.

Support Comments
1.2766 Jan 23'09 low
1.2551 Dec 04'08 low
1.2330 2008 low


Resistance Comments
1.3000/1.2993 psycho level/Feb 06'09 high.
1.3071/81 Feb 04'09/Nov 25'08
1.3298/1.3313 Jan 06'09 low/Oct 30'08 high

Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com

This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report


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Australia Senate Rejects A$42 Billion Stimulus Plan

By Gemma Daley

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s Senate rejected a A$42 billion ($27 billion) stimulus package aimed to prevent the country’s first recession in 18 years after an independent lawmaker demanded increased spending for his constituency.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd reintroduced the legislation five hours after the bill was defeated in a tied vote. The government will have to make further concessions to Senator Nick Xenophon before a new vote as early as tomorrow.

The first significant legislative defeat since Rudd won office in November 2007 will complicate efforts by the government and central bank to revive the economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia last week cut the benchmark interest rate to 3.25 percent, the lowest since 1964.

“It is crucial this package goes through,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. “If there are major changes or delays, it would exacerbate the recession we are already in.”

The government wants to distribute A$12.7 billion in cash to families and low-income earners and spend A$28.8 billion on schools, roads, hospitals and energy efficiency. That will send the budget into deficit in the 12 months ending June 30, the first shortfall in seven years.

The Australian dollar dropped to 65.40 U.S. cents at 5:56 p.m. in Sydney from 65.88 cents just before news of the defeat.

Xenophon, whose vote was critical to pass the legislation, wanted spending to improve the Murray-Darling River system, which runs through his home state of South Australia. Farmers along the river system produce almost half of the nation’s agricultural output.

‘Must Say No’

“I must say no to this stimulus plan,” Xenophon told the Senate in Canberra. “A credible stimulus package cannot ignore the Murray-Darling.”

Xenophon said later in an interview with Australian Broadcasting Corp.’s 7.30 Report that he hoped he could “thrash out” a solution with the government in the next 24 hours.

The tied vote in the Senate meant automatic defeat of the legislation. President Barack Obama is also having to offer concessions to U.S. lawmakers to pass his stimulus plan.

Australia’s Liberal-National coalition, which has 36 of the total 76 Senators, opposed Rudd’s package, saying it was too large. The coalition wanted scheduled tax cuts brought forward to replace the one-off cash payments.

Legislation Reintroduced

Rudd, 51, reintroduced the legislation to the lower house of parliament, which his party controls, and urged the Senate to pass it in a vote as early as tomorrow.

“The global downturn is an economic cyclone spreading from country to country, continent to continent, leaving wreckage in its wake,” Rudd told parliament in Canberra as he reintroduced the package to the lower house. “These measures are urgent.”

Australia’s economy grew 0.1 percent in the third quarter from a month earlier, the weakest pace in eight years. It expanded 1.9 percent from a year earlier.

By comparison, Japan’s economy contracted 0.5 percent in the same period and the U.S. shrank 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.

The Australian economy would contract in the next fiscal year without the stimulus, Treasury forecasts showed last week. The increased spending will help gross domestic product grow 1 percent this fiscal year and 0.75 percent in the year ending June 30, 2010, it said.

Investment bank Macquarie Group Ltd. and mining and energy producer BHP Billiton Ltd. are among companies firing workers. Job advertisements slumped for a ninth month in January, according to a report this week.

Adding Jobs

Australian employers added 1,200 jobs in January and the unemployment rate rose to 4.8 percent from 4.5 percent as more people looked for work, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today.

Voter support for Rudd’s Labor government increased after the package was unveiled last week, according to a Newspoll published in the Australian newspaper this week.

Support for Labor rose 4 percentage points to 58 percent, according to a poll of 1,133 people. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gemma Daley in Canberra at gdaley@bloomberg.net





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Yen, Dollar Gain as Havens on Bets Bank Bailout to Fall Short

By Molly Seltzer and Whitney Kisling

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The yen and dollar rose against all of the other major currencies as global stocks dropped on concern the U.S. financial recovery plan and the economic stimulus will fall short, boosting haven demand.

The euro declined for a third day against the yen after a report showed industrial output in the 16-nation region fell in December by the most on record, giving the central bank more room to cut interest rates. The pound slid against the euro and dollar on concern the recession in the U.K. is deepening.

“All the stimulus in the world is not going to arrest the economic downturn unless we have some sort of stabilization in the banking system,” said Omer Esiner, a senior analyst in Washington at Ruesch International Inc., a currency trading company. “That’s helping safe-haven assets.”

The yen appreciated 1.3 percent to 115.18 per euro at 9:24 a.m. in New York, from 116.66 yesterday. The dollar gained 1 percent to $1.2783 per euro from $1.2906. The U.S. currency fell 0.2 percent to 90.18 yen from 90.40.

The dollar pared its loss against the yen after the Commerce Department reported today that U.S. retail sales increased 1 percent in January, halting a record six-month slide. The median forecast of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.8 percent decrease.

“The overwhelming complexion of the data is that the economy is weak, not strong, so the retail number is the exception to the rule,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “It’s not typical of what’s going on.”

Geithner on Rescue

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, speaking yesterday before the Senate Budget Committee, defended his strategy of taking time to work out the details of a plan to shore up the financial industry.

“I completely understand the desire for details and commitments,” he said. “But we’re going to do this carefully.”

U.S. lawmakers agreed yesterday on a $789 billion economic stimulus plan, trimming the measure from more than $800 billion. Congress will send the stimulus package to President Barack Obama as early as today, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said.

The MSCI World Index dropped for a third day, losing 0.7 percent, while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index declined 1.2 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 1 percent.

“Risk appetite remains shaken,” Steven Pearson, a strategist in London at Merrill Lynch & Co., wrote in a note today.

Weaker Sterling

Sterling fell 0.9 percent to $1.4266 and 0.6 percent to 90.18 pence per euro as the spread between two- and 10-year government debt reached the widest since at least 1992. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said yesterday the economy is in a “deep recession” that may prompt policy makers to keep cutting interest rates and pump money into the economy.

The euro weakened as the European Union’s statistics office said today in Luxembourg that industrial output in the region fell 12 percent from a year earlier. The decline was larger than the 9.5 percent drop forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey and the biggest since the data series began in 1986.

The European Central Bank cut its inflation outlook in 2010 to 1.6 percent from 2 percent, stoking speculation policy makers will lower its main refinancing rate to a record. The bank also reduced its 2010 growth outlook to 0.6 percent from 1.4 percent.

“The report may heighten expectations for an ECB rate reduction,” said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan’s largest currency broker.

ECB’s Rate

Investors added to bets the ECB will lower borrowing costs from 2 percent at its March 5 meeting. The yield on the three- month Euribor interest rate futures contract due in March fell to 1.70 percent today from 1.715 percent yesterday.

ECB council member Erkki Liikanen said policy makers may cut the rate at their March meeting, Helsinki-based financial news Web site Taloussanomat.fi reported.

“Inflation developments and expectations are in line with our price stability target,” Liikanen said. “This gives us room to continue to take measures, and it’s possible we’ll move in the next meeting.”

The Group of Seven industrialized nations will meet this weekend in Rome to discuss measures to stabilize the financial system. Finance ministers and central bankers are likely to seek assurances the global recession won’t spark a wave of protectionism that deepens the slump, according to Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit MIB in London.

The G-7 may reinstate a call for China to increase the flexibility of its currency, Makoto Utsumi, a former top currency official at Japan’s Finance Ministry, said last week. “The yuan may be singled out,” he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Molly Seltzer in New York at mseltzer4@bloomberg.net; Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net




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U.A.E. Shares Rise, Led by ADIB, Arabtec, Taqa: Gulf Stocks

By Zainab Fattah

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- United Arab Emirates shares advanced as earnings this week from companies including Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC, Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. and Arabtec Holding Co. increased investor confidence.

ADIB, the United Arab Emirates’ second-largest lender complying with Muslim banking, rose to the highest in two weeks after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings. Abu Dhabi National Energy climbed for a second day after saying yesterday 2008 profit surged 89 percent. Aldar Properties PJSC and Dubai’s Arabtec Holding PJSC climbed for a fifth day. Arabtec on Feb. 9 reported full-year profit jumped 77 percent.

The Dubai Financial Market General Index rose 1.4 percent to 1,508.86, its highest close since Jan. 29. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index gained less than 0.1 percent, bringing the six-day rally to 5.3 percent.

“There has been a slight ease of fear and improvement in sentiment after Arabtec’s earnings came out,” said Mohammed Ali Yasin, the managing director of Shuaa Securities in Dubai.

ADIB jumped 6.2 percent to 2.75 dirhams. The bank said fourth-quarter net income ex-items surged 77 percent to 252.7 million dirhams ($68.8 million). Abu Dhabi National Energy, or Taqa, increased 6.4 percent to 1.16 dirhams. The energy investor said full-year profit was 1.95 billion dirhams. The shares surged 15 percent in the past two-days.

Aldar, the developer of Ferrari and Warner Bros.-branded theme parks in Abu Dhabi, rose 5.4 percent to 2.52 dirhams. The shares have gained 24 percent this week.

Arabtec soared 11 percent to 1.3 dirhams, bringing the five- day surge to 71 percent. Net income for the full-year advanced to 945 million dirhams. The shares have still tumbled 42 percent in 2009.

The Kuwait Stock Exchange Index fell 0.3 percent, while the Bahrain All Share Index added 0.6 percent. Oman’s Muscat Securities Market 30 Index declined 0.2 percent, according to the exchange’s Web site. The Doha Securities Market Index declined 0.3 percent. Saudi Arabia’s market is closed for the weekend.

To contact the reporter on this story: Zainab Fattah in Dubai on zfattah@bloomberg.net





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German Stocks Fall; Commerzbank, ThyssenKrupp, VW Lead Decline

By Stefanie Haxel

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- German stocks fell, led by carmakers, after U.S. lawmakers agreed on an economic stimulus plan that includes a smaller-than-proposed tax break for buyers of new cars.

Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, and Daimler AG both fell more than 3 percent. Commerzbank AG dropped for a third day after Morgan Stanley downgraded Germany’s second- largest bank. ThyssenKrupp AG fell 3.2 percent after Deutsche Bank AG lowered the steelmaker’s share-price estimate, saying the “power of declining capacity utilization is still underestimated by the market.”

The benchmark DAX Index dropped 2.1 percent to 4,434.58 as of 12:28 p.m. in Frankfurt. DAX futures expiring in March fell 2.3 percent, while the broader HDAX Index sank 2.1 percent.

Lawmakers in the U.S. Congress said yesterday they had agreed on a $789 billion plan to revive the economy, a smaller bill than originally approved by both groups. An $11 billion Senate proposal to boost the auto industry by allowing car buyers to take a tax write-off on their interest payments was cut to about $2 billion, according to Senator Barbara Mikulski, a Maryland Democrat.

“Overall, the package for the auto industry is smaller than expected, especially the tax breaks for car buyers,” Commerzbank analysts Daniel Schwarz and Gregor Claussen wrote in a note to clients today, calling that “slightly negative.”

Volkswagen sank 4.8 percent to 257.25 euros. Daimler, the world’s second-largest maker of luxury cars, retreated 3.3 percent to 23.915 euros.

Continental AG, Europe’s second-largest car-parts maker, plunged 6.6 percent to 15.11 euros. The company’s tire factory in Portugal is cutting production and has frozen an expansion plan, Jornal de Negocios reported, citing the head of the Continental Mabor unit in Portugal.

Commerzbank lost 5.7 percent to 3.47 euros. Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the stock to “underweight” from “equal weight,” citing the bank’s “high leverage.”

ThyssenKrupp, Germany’s biggest steelmaker, dropped 3.2 percent to 17.64 euros, a one-week low. The company’s steel and stainless units “focus on flat products and are therefore highly geared to consumer spending which holds a considerable volume risk,” London-based analysts Richard Smith and Mairead Smith wrote in a note to clients today. “We believe the power of declining capacity utilization is still underestimated.”

Infineon Technologies AG lost 4.6 percent to 72.5 cents, a third consecutive drop. Chief Executive Officer Peter Bauer said he will take a 20 percent pay cut in 2009 as Europe’s second- largest maker of semiconductors faces a “difficult year” filled with “many tough challenges.”

The comments were made in an advance copy of a speech to be delivered at the company’s annual shareholders meeting today.

E.ON AG, Germany’s biggest utility, declined 1.4 percent to 23.92 euros. RWE AG, the country second-largest, dropped 2.5 percent to 59.59 euros.

Electricite de France SA, Europe’s biggest power producer, will sell assets to cut debt after 2008 earnings fell and missed estimates on costs associated with regulated power rates.

The following stocks also rose or fell in German markets. Symbols are in parentheses.

CTS Eventim AG (EVD GY) increased 5.3 percent to 20 euros. The ticketing company that markets performers including Bruce Springsteen and Bon Jovi said full-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 7 percent to 57.8 million euros.

Gildemeister AG (GIL GY) gained 2 percent to 6.17 euros. The maker of milling machines used by the Red Bull Formula One racing team said 2008 profit rose 62 percent to 81.1 million euros ($104.7 million).

To contact the reporter on this story: Stefanie Haxel in Frankfurt at shaxel@bloomberg.net.





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U.K., Irish Stocks Decline; BT Group, Diageo, Irish Banks Drop

By Adam Haigh

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks fell as earnings at BT Group Plc and Diageo Plc disappointed investors and concern grew that U.S. initiatives to revamp the economy may have limited impact.

BT Group, the U.K.’s largest phone company, dropped 8.2 percent after reporting a 32 percent slide in third-quarter operating profit and saying it may need to book further charges to overhaul it global services division. Diageo, the world’s biggest liquor maker, retreated 5 percent as it cut its full-year profit forecast.

Bank of Ireland Plc and Allied Irish Banks Plc retreated at least 6.7 percent after the Irish government said it will invest 7 billion euros ($9 billion) in the lenders.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index lost 40.19 points, or 1 percent, to 4,194.07 at 12:18 p.m. in London and the FTSE All- Share Index slid 0.9 percent. Ireland’s ISEQ Index slipped 1.3 percent.

“Diageo has been hit by the management’s outlook comments and BT investors still see concerns with global services,” said Richard Hunter, head of U.K. equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers in London. “Overhanging the market is the lack of detail in the U.S. bailout plan and we will need more before we can see any sort of turnaround in sentiment.”

The FTSE 100 Index has lost 2.5 percent this week. The index climbed 5.6 percent in the first week of this month on optimism that measures by U.S. President Barack Obama and interest-rate cuts would help lift economies in the U.S., Europe and Japan out of recession.

BT Group lost 8.2 percent to 96 pence, the lowest since at least 1986. The company said it may need to book further charges to overhaul the global services division.

Diageo Declines

Diageo lost 5 percent to 862.5 pence as contracting economies from the U.S. to Spain weigh on sales of Johnnie Walker whisky and Smirnoff vodka.

Commodity stocks were led lower by Anglo American Plc and BHP Billiton Ltd. as copper, lead and nickel prices in London declined.

Anglo American, the fourth largest diversified mining company, slid 4.6 percent to 1,314 pence. BHP, the world’s biggest mining producer, dropped 3.3 percent to 1,251 pence.

In Ireland, banks shares slumped after the government said it is pumping 7 billion-euro to recapitalize Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks. Prime Minister Brian Cowen is propping up the two lenders as they face rising losses on loans to property developers.

The government will put 3.5 billion euros into each bank and get warrants giving it an option to buy a 25 percent stake in the lenders, the Finance Ministry in Dublin said late yesterday. The two banks said they “welcomed” the decision.

Bank of Ireland fell 6.7 percent to 57 cents. The country’s biggest lender by assets today said it will post a loss in the fiscal second half. Allied Irish Banks, the biggest bank by market value, lost 14 percent to 93.3 cents.

To contact the reporters on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net





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Stocks in Europe, Asia Retreat; MSCI World Drops for Third Day

By Adria Cimino

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia slipped and U.S. index futures fell as companies from Electricite de France SA to Diageo Plc posted disappointing results and investors speculated U.S. measures won’t revive the global economy.

EDF, the biggest operator of nuclear reactors, and Diageo, the largest liquor maker, sank more than 7 percent. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Ltd. lost 3.5 percent as U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he needs time to work out details of a bank-rescue plan. Wells Fargo & Co. helped lead declines in the U.S. after American jobless claims climbed to a record. Treasuries rose for a fourth day, while gold traded near a six- month high in London as investors sought a haven as the economy deteriorates.

The MSCI World Index dropped for a third day, losing 0.7 percent at 1:58 p.m. in London. The gauge of 23 developed countries had rallied 5.8 percent in the previous five days on optimism that global stimulus packages, a financial-rescue plan from Barack Obama’s administration and interest-rate cuts would help lift the U.S., Europe and Japan out of recessions.

“There isn’t a miracle solution,” Sebastien Korchia, a fund manager at Meeschaert Asset Management in Paris, which oversees about $2.6 billion, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It will take time. The market is worried.”

European stocks and U.S. futures maintained losses after government data showed the total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits reached 4.81 million. Sales at U.S. retailers rose in January for the first time in seven months.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of 23 developing nations sank 1.5 percent. India’s Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index slipped 1.6 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6 percent. Russia’s Micex Index decreased 0.2 percent.

BRICs Outperform

Even with today’s drops, China and Russia, along with Brazil, are the only major stock markets recording gains of more than 8 percent this year. India, the fourth member of the so- called BRICs, is down 1.9 percent.

U.S. stocks gained yesterday as lawmakers debated a $789 billion plan to revive the economy. U.S. House and Senate lawmakers agreed on a compromise late yesterday, a smaller bill than originally approved by both groups.

Governments worldwide are attempting to stabilize a global economy battered by more than $1 trillion in writedowns and losses at financial companies with stimulus programs and bank support packages. Australia’s Senate today rejected a A$42 billion ($28 billion) stimulus package aimed at preventing the country’s first recession in 18 years after an independent lawmaker demanded increased spending for his constituency.

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 1.2 percent as all 19 industry groups except healthcare declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.8 percent as Daikin Industries Ltd. cut its profit forecast.

Futures, Obama

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1 percent.

Treasury 10-year notes rose on speculation the government’s stimulus plan may not be enough to turn the economy around. The yield on the 10-year note fell 0.03 percentage point to 2.77 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. Bullion for immediate delivery gained as much as 0.8 percent to $946.38 an ounce.

Obama’s stimulus plan will be insufficient to avert the biggest U.S. economic decline since 1946 as consumer spending posts its longest slide on record, according to a monthly Bloomberg News survey. The world’s largest economy will contract 2 percent this year, half a percentage point more than last month’s forecast, according to the survey.

‘Very Cautious’

Profits have declined 65 percent for 469 companies in western Europe that have released earnings since Jan. 12, according to Bloomberg data.

“Few companies have visibility on profit or sales,” Jean- Christophe Liard, an analyst at KBL Richelieu Gestion, which oversees $5.2 billion, said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Paris. “Reports are showing either a drop in margins or slowing sales. These reports are a reflection of what’s going on in the economy. We’re very cautious.”

EDF slid 7.4 percent to 32.93 euros after saying 2008 net income fell to 3.4 billion euros ($4.39 billion) because of costs associated with regulated power rates and lower industrial demand amid the economic slowdown.

Diageo slipped 4.5 percent to 867 pence. The company said full-year operating profit will rise 4 percent to 6 percent, less than a previous forecast for as much as 9 percent growth.

Mitsubishi UFJ fell 3.5 percent to 468 yen in Tokyo. Toyota Motor Corp., which makes 37 percent of its sales in North America, dropped 2.9 percent to 3,050 yen. Wells Fargo, the second-biggest U.S. home lender, slid 3.7 percent to $16.86.

Daikin, Rexel

Daikin, the biggest Japanese maker of air conditioners, fell 5.6 percent to 2,105 yen after cutting its profit forecast by 59 percent for the year ending March 31 as the slumping global economy hurt sales.

Rexel SA lost 8.4 percent to 4.70 euros. The world’s largest distributor of electrical equipment posted a 63 million-euro net loss for the fourth quarter, hurt by falling volume sales and a drop in the price of copper.

Rexel said it expects a “significant” drop in volume sales and prices in 2009, suspended its dividend and said it will cut operating investments by 25 percent.

Nexans SA sank 13 percent to 40.17 euros. The world’s biggest maker of cables and wires said 2008 profit fell to 82 million euros from 189 million euros the year before.

Swiss Reinsurance Co. surged 4.7 percent to 19.83 francs. The world’s second-biggest reinsurer said Jacques Aigrain resigned as chief executive officer after record losses forced the company to seek capital from investors including Warren Buffett.

Cap Gemini

Cap Gemini SA lost 6.8 percent to 26.36 euros. Europe’s largest computer-services company said 2008 profit rose 2.5 percent to 451 million euros, missing analysts’ estimates, and predicted first-half sales will drop.

Renault SA advanced 2.9 percent to 16.71 euros. France’s second-largest carmaker reported a wider-than-expected second- half loss on Europe’s biggest auto market slump in 15 years and pledged to deepen cost cuts as the situation worsens in 2009.

“The most striking feature of Renault’s release is its aim for positive cash flow in 2009,” said London-based Credit Suisse analyst Stuart Pearson, who has an “underperform” rating on the shares. “This statement alone will significantly support the stock.”

Smith & Nephew Plc rose 4.8 percent to 537.5 pence after Europe’s largest maker of shoulder and knee implants said fourth- quarter operating profit increased and that long-term demand was “favorable.”

Fortis, Commerzbank

Fortis dropped 15 percent to 1.12 euros after shareholders yesterday rejected the state-organized breakup of what was once Belgium’s largest financial-services company.

Commerzbank AG slid 4.5 percent to 3.51 euros. The stock was cut to “underweight” from “equal weight” by analysts at Morgan Stanley. A “lack of visibility on financials, including Dresdner and the operating environment” were cited by Morgan Stanley as reasons for the downgrade in a note to investors.

Viacom Inc., owner of MTV, Comedy Central and Nickelodeon, said fourth-quarter profit excluding some items was 76 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated 79 cents. The stock didn’t trade in Europe.

Earnings at the 349 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported fourth-quarter results fell 36 percent on average as firms from Microsoft Corp. to Procter & Gamble Co. disappointed investors and the economy shrank at the fastest pace in 26 years. The period is projected to be the sixth straight quarter of decreasing profits, the longest streak on record.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.





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Banco Pine, Klabin, Telmex, Walmex: Latin Equity Preview

By Paulo Winterstein

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes today in Latin American trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses and share prices reflect the previous close.

The MSCI Latin America Index fell 1.7 percent to 2,190.46 yesterday. In Brazil, preferred shares usually are the most- traded class of stock.

Brazil

Banco Pine SA (PINE4 BS): The bank that went public in 2007 may report a 55 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit as higher credit costs led to lower loan volumes, Agora Corretora analyst Aloisio Lemos wrote. Pine, scheduled to release earnings tomorrow, fell 1.3 percent to 5.21 reais.

Klabin SA (KLBN4 BS): The biggest Brazilian seller of corrugated cardboard will likely see slower sales this year, Fator Corretora analyst Rodrigo Blanco Fernandes wrote, citing preliminary January data from the Brazilian Cardboard Association. Klabin fell 2.2 percent to 3.08 reais.

Mexico

Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB (WALMEXV MM): Mexico’s largest retailer said fourth-quarter profit rose 5 percent to 4.9 billion pesos ($338 million). Walmex, as the company is known, dropped 0.9 percent at 29.26 pesos.

Telefonos de Mexico SAB (TELMEXL MM): Mexico’s biggest fixed-line phone operator proposed increasing funds for share repurchases by as much as 10 billion pesos. The board called for a shareholder meeting March 3 to present the proposal. Telmex, as the company is known, dropped 3.6 percent to 11.53 pesos.

To contact the reporter on this story: Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net





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Coca-Cola, Gildan, Marriott, NetApp, Terex: U.S. Equity Preview

By Cristina Alesci and Rita Nazareth

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual moves in U.S. trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and prices are as of 8:55 a.m. in New York.

Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI US) fell 3 percent to $9.20. The world’s largest video-game maker said first-quarter profit excluding some items will be 3 cents a share. That’s below the 11-cent average of 21 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

American Italian Pasta Co. (AIPC US) rose 17 percent to $31.31. The maker of dry pasta reported profit of $1.23 a share in the fiscal first quarter, almost tripling the average analyst estimate, according to Bloomberg data.

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD US) added 19 percent to $26.10. The restaurant chain that features Buffalo-style chicken wings said it earned 43 cents a share in the fourth quarter. That beat the average analyst estimate by 14 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

Burger King Holdings Inc. (BKC US) advanced 4.9 percent to $21.01. The second-largest U.S. hamburger chain was added to the “conviction buy” list at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. following the stock’s 16 percent retreat in 2009.

Coca-Cola Co. (KO US) rose 3 percent to $42.50. The world’s biggest soft-drink maker said fourth-quarter profit excluding some items was 64 cents a share, beating the 61-cent average analyst estimate.

Diageo Plc (DEO US) fell 5.1 percent to $50.11. The world’s biggest liquor maker signaled it may cut jobs and lowered its profit forecast as demand for Johnnie Walker whisky and Smirnoff vodka stalls, hurt by deteriorating economies around the world.

Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL US) fell 28 percent to $7.35. North America’s biggest T-shirt maker scrapped its full-year forecast, citing “uncertainty” about the economy.

JA Solar Holdings Co. (JASO US) dropped 12 percent to $2.65. The Chinese solar-cell manufacturer lowered its sales forecast for the year to a range of $830 million to $952 million. That’s less than the $1.03 billion average estimate from analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Kohl’s Corp. (KSS US) fell 4.1 percent to $36.38. The fourth-largest U.S. department-store chain was cut to “sell” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Marriott International Inc. (MAR US) declined 8.9 percent to $13.80. The biggest U.S. hotel chain reported a fourth- quarter loss as the global recession reduced travel.

NetApp Inc. (NTAP US) declined 8.6 percent to $13.90. The provider of storage management hardware and software reported sales of $746 million in the third quarter. That missed the average analyst estimate by 18 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE US): The drugmaker was raised to “outperform” from “market perform” by analyst Seamus Fernandez at Leerink Swann & Co.

Strayer Education Inc. (STRA US) dropped 13 percent to $197.89. The for-profit provider of university courses predicted first-quarter profit of as little as $1.96 a share, 2 cents less than the average analyst estimate.

Terex Corp. (TEX US) slumped 22 percent to $10.64. The world’s third-biggest maker of construction equipment posted a $425.1 million quarterly loss, said 2009 sales may fall as much as 35 percent and warned it may default on its credit covenants.

Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. (WINN US) gained 17 percent to $13.37. The grocery store chain that exited bankruptcy in 2006 reported a second-quarter adjusted loss of 3 cents a share. That’s narrower than the 13-cent average loss prediction of analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at nazareth@bloomberg.net; Cristina Alesci in New York at calesci2@bloomberg.net.





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U.S. Stock Futures Drop on Jobless Claims, Stimulus Skepticism

By Jeff Kearns

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures fell, extending a global drop in equities, as jobless claims climbed to a record and investors speculated government measures will fail to revive the world’s economy.

Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Intel Corp. helped lead declines after the total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits reached 4.81 million. Electricite de France SA, the biggest operator of nuclear reactors, and Diageo Plc, the largest liquor maker, sank more than 7 percent in Europe after posting disappointing results. Treasuries rose for a fourth day, while gold traded near a six- month high as investors sought a haven from risky assets.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in March dropped 0.8 percent to 824.7 at 8:45 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 0.6 percent to 7,846 and Nasdaq- 100 Index futures slid 0.3 percent to 1,221. Futures pared earlier declines after a report showed retail sales unexpectedly increased last month.

President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan will be insufficient to avert the biggest U.S. economic decline since 1946 as consumer spending posts its longest slide on record, according to a monthly Bloomberg News survey. The world’s largest economy will contract 2 percent this year, half a percentage point more than last month’s forecast, according to the survey.

U.S. stocks gained yesterday as lawmakers debated a $789 billion plan to revive the economy. U.S. House and Senate lawmakers agreed on a compromise late yesterday, a smaller bill than originally approved by both groups. Governments worldwide are attempting to stabilize a global economy battered by more than $1 trillion in writedowns and losses at financial companies.

BRICs Outperform

Even with today’s drop, China, along with Brazil and Russia, Are the only major stock markets recording gains of more than 8 percent this year. India, the fourth member of the so-called BRICs, is down 1.9 percent.

Kohl’s Corp. may fall after Goldman Sachs downgraded the department-store chain to “sell” from “neutral” and added the shares to the firm’s “conviction sell” list.

NYSE Euronext slipped 1 percent to $20.40 in France. The world’s largest owner of stock exchanges was cut to “hold” from “buy” at Citigroup Inc., which cited slowing volumes, pricing pressures and an “uphill battle” in expense reductions. The New York-based company, which lost a record $1.34 billion in the fourth quarter after writing down its purchase of Euronext NV, is trying to engineer a recovery by overhauling trading systems to cut $250 million in annual costs by 2010.

Viacom, Chipotle

Viacom Inc., owner of MTV, Comedy Central and Nickelodeon, said fourth-quarter profit excluding some items was 76 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated 79 cents. The stock didn’t trade in Europe.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. may be active. The burrito chain spun off from McDonald’s Corp. reported fourth-quarter profit of 52 cents a share, topping the average analyst estimate by 7.2 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

Earnings fell 36 percent on average at the 349 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported fourth-quarter results so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The period is poised to be the sixth straight quarter of decreasing profits, the longest streak on record.

Results at companies from Microsoft Corp. to Procter & Gamble Co. disappointed investors last quarter as the economy shrank at the fastest pace in 26 years.

In Western Europe, profits have declined 65 percent for 469 companies that have released earnings since Jan. 12, according to Bloomberg data.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net.





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Stimulus, Rescue Plans Fail To Stimulate Or Rrescue

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | Feb 12 09 10:21 GMT |

Market Brief

Asian markets continued to dwindle as the U.S Stimulus package failed to impress anyone. This was further exacerbated by the lack of response by the U.S government to this generalized pessimism. The Nikkei dropped by a frightening -4.92% this morning, while the Hang Seng fell by -3.3%. The ASX plunged by -4.2% after a $28Bn economic stimulus package was rejected by lawmakers. The AUDUSD traded amidst heightened volatility as a result - seeing the Aussie decline sharply to 0.6480 territory, however it seems a lot of this was already priced in.

The EURUSD is seen converging around a 1.2900 handle, however further news impetus will continue to weigh on the pair - 1.2707 seen as short-term target, passing by 1.2847 as key currency level. The USDJPY see's Japan's haven currency appreciate - much to the disdain of the home economy - largely supported by exports.

In the news today, Spain announces it is officially in recession as its GDP declines by 1.00%. US Initial Jobless claims are expected at 13:30 GMT - expected to come out lower than the previous -626K at -610K.

ACM FOREX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.



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Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by iFOREX.bg | Feb 12 09 09:05 GMT |

GBP/USD 1.4233

GBP/USD Open 1.4343 High 1.4538 Low 1.4208 Close 1.4394

The descending movement of the Pound/Dollar continued yesterday, which today accelerated further downwards. The currency couple dropped to the bottom 1.4319, and closed the day at 1.4394. On the 4 hour chart the upward channel was penetrated downwards. Short term signals are decreasing with the goals towards the region of 1.4150. Immediate resistance is 1.4570, followed by 1.4640. The CCI indicator has just crossed down the 100 line of the daily chart, signaling for decreasing pressure.

Technical resistance levels: 1.4415 1.4535 1.4630
Technical support levels: 1.4150 1.4000 1.3885

Trading range: 1.4245 - 1.4170

Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.4233 SL 1.4263 TP 1.4183

iFOREX.bg Forecasts and Trading Signals
http://www.zifx.com





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Forex Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DeltaStock Inc. | Feb 12 09 09:03 GMT |

EUR/USD

Current level-1.2925

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are rising, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3292 and 1.4721.

Yesterday's downward impulse bottomed at 1.2833 and having in mind, that it could not reach some of the important levels around 1.2746-78, we are tempted to think, that a bullish movement for 1.31+ and 1.3328 lies ahead. Crucial is 1.2746, as if we see a break below that level, it would transform the consolidation since 1.2706 into an inverted, bearish flag and will challenge 1.2547. Intraday resistance comes at 1.2945 and the pair has potential for one more downswing to 1.2811-33 before entering a bullish phase.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.2945 1.3092 1.2886 1.2746
1.2997 1.3328 1.2811
1.2547

USD/JPY

Current level - 90.07

The pair has finalized its consolidation above 90.95 at 97.48 and the general downtrend has been renewed, targeting 79.86. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 107.61 and 105.76

The downtrend from 91.53 has bottomed at 89.71 and rebounded well to the 90.73 resistance level. We hold on to our view, that the slide from 92.21 is the beginning of a sharp downtrend towards 86.31 and 83.01. Intraday resistance is 90.73 and the pair is targeting 88.63.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
90.73 93.12 89.51 87.12
92.24 97.48 88.63 83.01

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.4365

The pair is in a larger corrective phase towards 1.60+, after bottoming at 1.3506. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.5505 and 1.8341.

Yesterday's brief test of the 1.4590 resistance failed and the pair was sold out to 1.4316 low. The overall bias is still negative for 1.4286 and if we see a break below that support, next important level will be 1.4020-50 zone. Only above 1.4560, a reversal will be confirmed

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4435 1.4986 1.4316 1.4020
1.4560 1.5727 1.4286 1.3506

DeltaStock Inc. - Online Forex & Securities Broker
www.deltastock.com

RISK DISCLAIMER: These analyses are for information purposes only. They DO NOT post a BUY or SELL recommendation for any of the financial instruments herein analyzed. The information is obtained from generally accessible data sources. The forecasts made are based on technical analysis. However, Delta Stock’s Analyst Dept. also takes into consideration a number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors, which we believe impact the price moves of the observed instruments. Delta Stock Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon the information on this page. Delta Stock Inc. shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation, losses or unrealized gains that may result. Any information is subject to change without notice.


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Spain Fourth Quarter Preliminary GDP: Summary (Table)

By Ainhoa Goyeneche

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of fourth quarter preliminary GDP from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica in Madrid:


=============================================================================
4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q
2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2006
=============================================================================
YoY % Change -0.7% 0.9% 1.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9%
QoQ % Change -1.0% -0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
=============================================================================
NOTE: These figures are seasonally and workday adjusted.
Base year 2000=100

SOURCE: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica
(Spanish National Institute of Statistics)

To contact the reporter on this story: Ainhoa Goyeneche in London at agoyenechecu@bloomberg.net





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Ireland’s Government Injects EU7 Billion to Aid Banks

By Ian Guider and Dara Doyle

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland’s government will invest 7 billion euros ($9 billion) in Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc, joining countries across the globe scrambling to aid the international financial system.

The government will pump 3.5 billion euros into each bank and get warrants giving it an option to buy a 25 percent stake in the lenders, the Finance Ministry in Dublin said late yesterday. The two banks said they “welcomed” the decision.

The injection is “good news insofar that there is a sizable capital injection,” said Kevin McConnell, head of research at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin. “However, without clarity on either an insurance scheme or the creation of a bad bank, there is still uncertainty over the size of the impact of bad debts on capital levels.”

Prime Minister Brian Cowen moved to shore up the two lenders as they face rising losses on loans to property developers. Bank of Ireland said today its three-year loan impairment charge may amount to as much as 6 billion euros. After a decade-long boom, Ireland’s economy is now shrinking at the fastest pace in the euro area.

“In terms of capital, I believe we got it right,” Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said. “No government in the world has been able to devise a totally satisfactory scheme of risk assessment. We will continue to work on that.”

Losses

Around $1.1 trillion of losses and writedowns at banks around the world since the credit crunch began have prompted bailouts by governments in the U.K., U.S., Germany and Switzerland.

Ireland’s government, which said it’s not seeking to take control of the banks, will review its deposit and borrowings guarantee protection for six lenders covered by the scheme.

The government also said it’s in discussions with Irish Life & Permanent Plc, EBS Building Society and Irish Nationwide Building Society over their capital. Irish house prices have dropped around 10 percent in the last 12 months and unemployment is rising at a record pace as Dell Inc. and Waterford Wedgwood Plc cut jobs and manufacturing and construction contract.

Bad Loan Charge

Bank of Ireland said today it will make a fiscal second-half loss, without giving details, as it increases the amount of money set aside to cover bad loans. The bank raised the outlook for its loan impairment charge for the three years to March 2011 to 4.5 billion euros from 3.8 billion euros. It said the charge may rise to as high as 6 billion euros.

Bank of Ireland fell 6.6 percent to 57 cents as of 8:30 a.m. in Dublin, giving the company a market value of 572 million euros. Allied Irish declined 1.9 percent.

The preference shares issued by Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland will pay a fixed 8 percent dividend. That’s lower than the 12 percent the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc is paying the U.K. government, which it tapped for capital last year.

“This will pump capital into unreformed and unreconstructed banks with bad debts,” said Richard Bruton, finance spokesman for the opposition Fine Gael party. “Taxpayers are now in danger of putting in the huge sum of 7 billion euros but only have banks nurse along dodgy property loans.”

In return for the state funds, the banks will cut senior executive salaries by “at least” 33 percent and also agreed to halt home repossessions for 12 months.

Lenihan said he has discussed “management change” at both banks and that the boards of both lenders will retire before their annual general meetings and go forward for re-election.

He said it would be “premature” for him to comment on the possible composition of a new board and that the appointment of chief executives at the lenders was a “matter for the board.”

“I’m quite prepared to discuss schemes for assessing and eliminating risk for the bank, but would involve careful protection for the taxpayer,” Lenihan said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ian Guider in Dublin at iguider@bloomberg.net; Dara Doyle in Dublin at Ddoyle1@bloomberg.net





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Ireland’s Government Injects EU7 Billion to Aid Banks

By Ian Guider and Dara Doyle

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland’s government will invest 7 billion euros ($9 billion) in Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc, joining countries across the globe scrambling to aid the international financial system.

The government will pump 3.5 billion euros into each bank and get warrants giving it an option to buy a 25 percent stake in the lenders, the Finance Ministry in Dublin said late yesterday. The two banks said they “welcomed” the decision.

The injection is “good news insofar that there is a sizable capital injection,” said Kevin McConnell, head of research at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin. “However, without clarity on either an insurance scheme or the creation of a bad bank, there is still uncertainty over the size of the impact of bad debts on capital levels.”

Prime Minister Brian Cowen moved to shore up the two lenders as they face rising losses on loans to property developers. Bank of Ireland said today its three-year loan impairment charge may amount to as much as 6 billion euros. After a decade-long boom, Ireland’s economy is now shrinking at the fastest pace in the euro area.

“In terms of capital, I believe we got it right,” Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said. “No government in the world has been able to devise a totally satisfactory scheme of risk assessment. We will continue to work on that.”

Losses

Around $1.1 trillion of losses and writedowns at banks around the world since the credit crunch began have prompted bailouts by governments in the U.K., U.S., Germany and Switzerland.

Ireland’s government, which said it’s not seeking to take control of the banks, will review its deposit and borrowings guarantee protection for six lenders covered by the scheme.

The government also said it’s in discussions with Irish Life & Permanent Plc, EBS Building Society and Irish Nationwide Building Society over their capital. Irish house prices have dropped around 10 percent in the last 12 months and unemployment is rising at a record pace as Dell Inc. and Waterford Wedgwood Plc cut jobs and manufacturing and construction contract.

Bad Loan Charge

Bank of Ireland said today it will make a fiscal second-half loss, without giving details, as it increases the amount of money set aside to cover bad loans. The bank raised the outlook for its loan impairment charge for the three years to March 2011 to 4.5 billion euros from 3.8 billion euros. It said the charge may rise to as high as 6 billion euros.

Bank of Ireland fell 6.6 percent to 57 cents as of 8:30 a.m. in Dublin, giving the company a market value of 572 million euros. Allied Irish declined 1.9 percent.

The preference shares issued by Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland will pay a fixed 8 percent dividend. That’s lower than the 12 percent the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc is paying the U.K. government, which it tapped for capital last year.

“This will pump capital into unreformed and unreconstructed banks with bad debts,” said Richard Bruton, finance spokesman for the opposition Fine Gael party. “Taxpayers are now in danger of putting in the huge sum of 7 billion euros but only have banks nurse along dodgy property loans.”

In return for the state funds, the banks will cut senior executive salaries by “at least” 33 percent and also agreed to halt home repossessions for 12 months.

Lenihan said he has discussed “management change” at both banks and that the boards of both lenders will retire before their annual general meetings and go forward for re-election.

He said it would be “premature” for him to comment on the possible composition of a new board and that the appointment of chief executives at the lenders was a “matter for the board.”

“I’m quite prepared to discuss schemes for assessing and eliminating risk for the bank, but would involve careful protection for the taxpayer,” Lenihan said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ian Guider in Dublin at iguider@bloomberg.net; Dara Doyle in Dublin at Ddoyle1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Ireland’s Government Injects EU7 Billion to Aid Banks

By Ian Guider and Dara Doyle

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland’s government will invest 7 billion euros ($9 billion) in Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc, joining countries across the globe scrambling to aid the international financial system.

The government will pump 3.5 billion euros into each bank and get warrants giving it an option to buy a 25 percent stake in the lenders, the Finance Ministry in Dublin said late yesterday. The two banks said they “welcomed” the decision.

The injection is “good news insofar that there is a sizable capital injection,” said Kevin McConnell, head of research at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin. “However, without clarity on either an insurance scheme or the creation of a bad bank, there is still uncertainty over the size of the impact of bad debts on capital levels.”

Prime Minister Brian Cowen moved to shore up the two lenders as they face rising losses on loans to property developers. Bank of Ireland said today its three-year loan impairment charge may amount to as much as 6 billion euros. After a decade-long boom, Ireland’s economy is now shrinking at the fastest pace in the euro area.

“In terms of capital, I believe we got it right,” Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said. “No government in the world has been able to devise a totally satisfactory scheme of risk assessment. We will continue to work on that.”

Losses

Around $1.1 trillion of losses and writedowns at banks around the world since the credit crunch began have prompted bailouts by governments in the U.K., U.S., Germany and Switzerland.

Ireland’s government, which said it’s not seeking to take control of the banks, will review its deposit and borrowings guarantee protection for six lenders covered by the scheme.

The government also said it’s in discussions with Irish Life & Permanent Plc, EBS Building Society and Irish Nationwide Building Society over their capital. Irish house prices have dropped around 10 percent in the last 12 months and unemployment is rising at a record pace as Dell Inc. and Waterford Wedgwood Plc cut jobs and manufacturing and construction contract.

Bad Loan Charge

Bank of Ireland said today it will make a fiscal second-half loss, without giving details, as it increases the amount of money set aside to cover bad loans. The bank raised the outlook for its loan impairment charge for the three years to March 2011 to 4.5 billion euros from 3.8 billion euros. It said the charge may rise to as high as 6 billion euros.

Bank of Ireland fell 6.6 percent to 57 cents as of 8:30 a.m. in Dublin, giving the company a market value of 572 million euros. Allied Irish declined 1.9 percent.

The preference shares issued by Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland will pay a fixed 8 percent dividend. That’s lower than the 12 percent the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc is paying the U.K. government, which it tapped for capital last year.

“This will pump capital into unreformed and unreconstructed banks with bad debts,” said Richard Bruton, finance spokesman for the opposition Fine Gael party. “Taxpayers are now in danger of putting in the huge sum of 7 billion euros but only have banks nurse along dodgy property loans.”

In return for the state funds, the banks will cut senior executive salaries by “at least” 33 percent and also agreed to halt home repossessions for 12 months.

Lenihan said he has discussed “management change” at both banks and that the boards of both lenders will retire before their annual general meetings and go forward for re-election.

He said it would be “premature” for him to comment on the possible composition of a new board and that the appointment of chief executives at the lenders was a “matter for the board.”

“I’m quite prepared to discuss schemes for assessing and eliminating risk for the bank, but would involve careful protection for the taxpayer,” Lenihan said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ian Guider in Dublin at iguider@bloomberg.net; Dara Doyle in Dublin at Ddoyle1@bloomberg.net





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