Economic Calendar

Friday, November 13, 2009

Crude Oil Rebounds From One-Month Low as U.S. Dollar Weakens

By Rachel Graham and Christian Schmollinger

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil advanced as the dollar dropped, buoying demand for commodities as an alternative investment to the U.S. currency.

Oil rose from yesterday’s one-month low, reached after a government report showed rising stockpiles of crude and oil products. The U.S. dollar weakened to $1.4888 against the euro from a close of $1.4850 yesterday.

“We are seeing a bit of a rebound,” Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich, said by phone from Vienna. “The dollar is a bit weaker today.”

Oil for December delivery rose as much as 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $77.40 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and traded at $77.32 a barrel at 8:47 a.m. London time.

Oil fell as much as 3.5 percent yesterday to $76.52, the lowest intraday price since Oct. 15. Crude is up 73 percent so far this year.

The Energy Department report showed crude stockpiles rose a more-than-estimated 1.76 million barrels last week. Refinery operating rates fell to 79.9 percent of capacity, the lowest in more than a year. Gasoline inventories rose unexpectedly by 2.56 million barrels to 210.8 million, compared with a forecast decline of 350,000 barrels.

“There is a lot of uncertainty as to what we can expect with the rate of recovery in Western oil demand, particularly the U.S.,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “There are sectors of the economy that remain weak.”

Brent crude for December settlement added as much as 64 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $76.66 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and traded at $76.62 a barrel at 8:49 a.m. local time.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rachel Graham in London rgraham13@bloomberg.netChristian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net





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European Market Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | Nov 13 09 11:05 GMT |

Euro-Zone moves out of recession; Obama's Far East visit heightens Yuan revaluation rumors

ECONOMIC DATA

(FI) Finland Oct CPI M/M: -0.5% v 0.2%e ; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.8%e

(GE) German Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.8%e ; GDP WDA Y/Y: -4.8% v -4.8%e; GDP NSA Y/Y: -4.7% v -5.0%e

(FR) France Oct CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Ex Tobacco Index: 118.23v 118.20e
(FR) France Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2%e
(FR) France Q3 Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Wages Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e
(FR) French Q3 Prelim GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.6%e, Y/Y: % v -1.9%e

(FI) Finland Sept Current Account: -€40M v -€80M prior

(SP) Spain Oct CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.6%e
(SP) Spain Oct CPI Core M/M: 0.9% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0%e
(SP) Spain Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.6%e

(CZ) Czech Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.6% v -6.0%e
(CZ) Czech Preliminary Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v %0.1 prior; Y/Y: -4.1% v -4.7%e

(HU) Hungary Q3 GDP Y/Y: -7.2% v -6.6%e
(HU) Hungary Sept Final Industrial Output M/M: 3.7% v 3.7% prior; Y/Y: -15.0% v -15.0% prior

(SZ) Switzerland Oct Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -4.7% v -4.1%e

(HK) Hong Kong Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.4% 1.9%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -1.4%e

(NE) Netherlands Preliminary Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -3.7% v -4.5%e
(NE) Netherlands Sept Trade Balance: €3.8B v €2.1B prior
(NE) Netherlands Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.4% v -7.7% prior

(SW) Sweden Q3 Industrial Capacity 78.2% v 76.4% prior

(AS) Austria Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.4% v -5.9% prior

(IT) Italy Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -4.6% v -4.5%e

(UK) Oct England and Wales House prices M/M +0.7% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y -2.4% v -4.9% - FT/Acadametric

(EU) Euro Zone Q3 Advanced GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -4.1% v -3.9%e

(GR) Greek Q3 Preliminary GDP -0.3% v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.2% prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities: European equity markets shook off opening lows to move into positive territory as the Czech Rep, Netherlands, Italy and Austria all moved out of technical recessions with positive Q3 GPD prints. Equities took cheer from the formation of Europe's third largest airline with the finalization of an agonizingly long dance between British Airways [BAY.UK] and Iberia [IBLA.SP] coming to a close. Positive earnings momentum from Vivendi [VIV.FR], KBC Groep [KBC.BE] and luxury retailer CIE Financiere Richemont [CFR.SZ] supported this positive momentum. Oil and gas names continued their multi-day underperformance following bearish 2010 commentary from oil service firm Technip [TEC.FR] following its Q3 earnings. Disappointing financial sector earnings from Dexia [DEXB.BE] in the premarket and Natixis [KN.FR] in yesterday's post market added weight to that sector. Other underperforming sectors included healthcare and basic resources/miners, specifically on the FTSE100 where Thursday's losses were extended. Into 5:00EST European equity markets are clearly looking forward to US data, including Sept trade balance and University of Michigan figures. Trading volumes for the session are down sharply from moving averages with the DAX off by approx 60%.

in individual equities: Technip [TEC.FR] Reports Q3 Net €108M v €103Me, Rev €1.7B v €1.6Be; confirms FY09 outlook; cautious on FY10. ||Dexia [DEXB.BE] Reports Q3 Net Profit €274M v €331Me, Rev €1.4B v €1.6Be. || KBC [KBC.BE] Reports Q3 €631M v €420Me, Rev £2.4B v €2.3Be. || Iberia [IBLA.SP] Signs "merger of equals" deal with British Airways; Merger expected to close in late 2010. || Porsche [PAH3.GE] Reports 2009 pretax loss €4.4B v gain €8.6B y/y. || Vinci [DG.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €8.6B v €9.1B y/y; Outlook unchanged. || Bouygues [EN.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €8.38B v €8.5Be. || Natixis [KN.FR] Reports Q3 Net €268M v €526Me, Rev €1.3B v €1.1Be. || Vivendi [VIV.FR] Reports Q3 net adj €645M v €625M y/y, Rev €6.4B v €6.5Be. || Gamsea [GAM.SP] Reports 9-month net €86M v €288M y/y, EBITDA €311M v €311M y/y. ||

Speakers: IMF's Strauss-Kahn commented that a stronger Chinese Yuan currency would boost Chinese domestic demand and stated that a revaluation of CNY should be not resisted. The IMF noted that the US growth had resumed earlier than expected but that the US economic recovery remained sluggish. The IMF did not expect the US to fall victim to a double dip recession. Overall, the IMF expects 2010 to be year of gradual global economic recovery. On the currency front, the IMF noted that the recent USD decline was within normal ranges but noted the dollar was resilient during the global crisis. Most Asian currencies were undervalued and that the currency reserves accumulation process was an insurance policy, although not a cheap policy ||Bundesbank's Zeitler commented in the German press that 2010 would be tough for banks as effects of recession now arriving on balance sheets. He noted that removal of special measures would be staggered. Removal of central bank support measures will not be removed all at once so institutions have time to prepare || French Fin Min Lagarde stated that the French economy was on path towards recovery. She noted that Only 5k jobs lost in Q3, indicating a deceleration of unemployment and a sign of stabilization. She noted that Stimulus plan must remain in place next year || German Economic Council (Wisemen) released their annual report: It forecasts that the ECB to hold interest rates steady at 1.0% through 2010; Forecasted German 2010 GDP at 1.6% and debt /GDP ratio at 5.1%. It noted that the Germany economy to recover but no upswing. Abrupt currency rate swings could hurt recovery prospects. Govt must prepare exit strategies from special measures and must begin in 2011 || Japan Fin Min Fujii commented that he was no longer concerned about falling JGB. He also noted that the Gov't could cut a few trillion from ¥95T initial budget requests for the next fiscal year budget. || ECB's Sramko reiterated view that ECB interest rates of 1.0% were appropriate and would help increase economic stabilization. He did note it was premature to be worried about inflationary expectations. Commodity prices remained an inflation risk but expectations were currently anchored. He expressed optimism that the economy had begun to bottom out, but cautioned that uncertainties remain. Risks to future developments were no longer just on the downside and might be a moderate Employment recovery in 2010

In Currencies: Comments from that IMF that a revaluation of CNY should be not resisted prompted amid persistent speculation that China could revalue its currency over the weekend, particularly with President Obama visiting the region. Earlier this month Dealing desks noted chatter circulating about good selling pressure in USD/CNY long-dated forwards ahead of President Obama's visit to China. Such speculation that these sorts of developments could prompt a weaker dollar again other Asian pairs in coming months. However, China's PBoC reportedly told APEC members at the recent summit that Yuan flexibility would be very gradual. USD/JPY tested 89.70 during the course of the European morning.

Fixed income: Euro-zone sovereign debt spreads remain relatively steady against bunds following a plethora of Q3 preliminary GDP readings from the continent. The data has provided markets with a nice insight into the divergent paths of European economies as the crisis recedes. Germany is ultimately leading the way out of the crisis, registering its second successive quarter of growth, and a sequential increase. France also had a second quarter of growth, but the somewhat disappointing 0.3% read was in line with the prior quarter. Austrian and dutch yield spreads are narrower versus Bunds after they resumed growth in Q3. Of the club med nations, Italy and Portugal managed growth in Q3 while Spain and Greece remain mired in recession. The tesoro d'italia sold €2B in 12yr BTP's with modest results, whilst France has scheduled up to €9B in supply for next week . In corporates British American Tobacco launched a two part bond offering, with 11 year Euro denonated and 25 year sterling denominated tranches in the works

In Energy: JPM analyst report stated that China to be net coal importer in 2009 for the first time. The report believes that China was accelerating its importation of coal to cope with fallen output caused by the consolidation of small coal mines

NOTES

Risk back in during the European morning following slew of GDP data highlighted by the Euro-Zone moving out of recession

Hong Kong Financial Sec Tsang: FED's policy of keeping interest rates near zero is fueling a wave of speculative capital that may cause the next global crisis

Looking Ahead:

US Corporate Earnings expected: BBI, DIS and JWN

(RU) Russia Oct Producer Prices M/M: % v 1.3%e; Y/Y: % v 1.6%e

8:00am (PD) Poland Oct CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.2%e v 3.4% prior

8:30 am (US) Sept Trade Balance: -$31.8Be v -$30.7B prior

8:30 am (US) Oct Import Price Index M/M: 1.0%e v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: -5.5%e v -12.0% prior

8:30 am (CA) Sept International Merchandise Trade: -C$1.8Be v -C$2.0B prior

8:30 am (CA) Canadian New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: 0.0%e v -0.3% prior

10:00 (US) Oct Import Price Index M/M: 1.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -5.5%e v -12.0% prior

10:00 (US) Nov Prelim U of Michigan Confidence: 71.0e v 70.6 prior

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

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Euro Zone Expands In Third Quarter!

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ecPulse.com | Nov 13 09 10:42 GMT |

The end of the economic week is here, as we see the euro zone released its third quarter GDP showing that it expanded therefore gives us evidence that the worst of this global recession is here which also supports the ECB's point of view of wanting to exit the stimulus plans gradually.

The euro zone released its third quarter advanced GDP reading showing that the nation expanded to 0.4% from the second quarter contraction of 0.2% while the markets were expecting an expansion of 0.5% while on the year the contraction eased to -4.1% from -4.8% which is worse than the projected contraction of 3.9 percent.

The euro zone expanded as a result of exports from Germany and France boosting growth levels therefore making up for the curtailed consumption that is led from the high unemployment rates in the euro zone standing at 9.7% and are only anticipated by the ECB to rise further.

The fragile job market is a major threat to the zone's economic recovery because the more jobless consumers there are, the weaker spending there is in the area at a time the zone seeks money inflows to prosper accurately. Despite the weak labor sector, confidence in the zone has been rising which is what the ECB is expecting, as consumers are looking forward to the outlook especially as they improvement taking place.

As today we witnessed expansion was also led from the European Central Bank using 60 billion euros to shake off the worst economic recession since post world era, and today it becomes clear that these unorthodox measures have provided growth in the euro zone.

We see that one of the reasons behind the expansion in the euro zone was also that Germany, the biggest economy in the euro area today released its third quarter preliminary GDP showing that the expansion widened to 0.7% from the revised advanced expansion of 0.4% from 0.3%.

The improvement in this nation was mainly because of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel using 85 billion euros to ease the deterioration in the economy. The money used to ease effects of recession have helped dominate sectors expand which was a reason behind the rising growth levels.

Exports were also one of the main reasons behind higher growth levels in Germany, and since the nation is an export oriented economy, we continue to see that Germany is succeeding in stepping out of the recession.

Also released today from the leading economies in the euro zone, was France's GDP preliminary reading for the third quarter showing that the expansion remained at 0.3% and not expand like in Germany

Ecpulse

disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk





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Forex Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DeltaStock Inc. | Nov 13 09 11:12 GMT |

EUR/USD

Current level-1.4879

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

Yesterday's slide filled our targets at 1.4915 and 1.4836 and bottomed at 1.4821. Although the intraday bias is positive for 1.4915 and 1.4952 it is too early to state, that 1.4821 is a significant bottom and there is still a chance for one more drowning to 1.4763 support area. We continue to think, that only a temporary top is at place at 1.5063 and the overall uptrend is still intact

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4952 1.5290 1.4852 1.4623
1.5124 1.6040 1.4767 1.4444

USD/JPY

Current level - 89.82

A short-term bottom has been set at 87.12 and a large consolidation is unfolding since. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 94.86 and 94.84.

Yesterday's rise peaked at 90.61 and current bias is negative for 89.61 support. A break below 89.31 low will prove our idea for 91.58 wrong.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
90.31 92.40 89.63 89.17
90.75 97.79 88.83 83.53

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.6660

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated above the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6454 and 1.5258.

The recent test of 1.6515 support failed and the pair is in an uptrend for 1.6742 dynamic resistance, en route to 1.6840 high. Intraday support comes at 1.6610-23.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.6742 1.7042 1.6610 1.6250
1.6840 1.7442 1.6515 1.5706

DeltaStock Inc. - Online Forex & Securities Broker
www.deltastock.com

RISK DISCLAIMER: These analyses are for information purposes only. They DO NOT post a BUY or SELL recommendation for any of the financial instruments herein analyzed. The information is obtained from generally accessible data sources. The forecasts made are based on technical analysis. However, Delta Stock’s Analyst Dept. also takes into consideration a number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors, which we believe impact the price moves of the observed instruments. Delta Stock Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon the information on this page. Delta Stock Inc. shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation, losses or unrealized gains that may result. Any information is subject to change without notice.


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Swiss Re Says Inflation May Pose ‘Real Problem’ for Reinsurers

By Jamie McGee

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Reinsurers will face higher claims costs in the next few years if “rampant” inflation erodes reserves and rates for coverage fail to keep pace, Swiss Reinsurance Co. executive Pierre Ozendo said.

“Inflation is a destroyer of reserve adequacy and destroys economic value in a business that measures its economic success over multiple years,” Ozendo, head of Zurich-based Swiss Re’s Americas division, said yesterday in an interview at an Ernst & Young LLP conference in New York. “There is a very real fear of inflation ramping up.”

Insurers and reinsurers can pay claims years after setting prices, causing inflation to add to costs for injuries and legal claims. Casualty reinsurance, which protects against liability costs and has a longer lag before claim payments, would face larger increases than property coverage, consulting firm Towers Perrin said in a statement last month.

The difference between rates on 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which reflects the outlook among traders for consumer prices, was 2.17 percentage points, up from as low as 0.04 percentage point a year ago. Consumer prices increased 0.2 percent in September and have climbed each month since April, according to the Labor Department.

“Historically, inflation has caused larger future claims, and, in the current climate, the industry is not likely to be able to factor this into pricing,” Ross Howard, chief operating officer of Towers Perrin’s Europe reinsurance brokerage business, wrote in the Oct. 23 statement.

Prices Decline

Reinsurance prices have fallen as corporations reduce spending and companies compete for policyholders amid the recession. Swiss Re, the world second-largest reinsurer, posted a 36 percent revenue decline in its casualty segment in 2008. Ozendo said casualty rates dropped over the last two years and property reinsurance prices increased gradually in 2009.

If inflation “is not contained and becomes rampant, then it will become a real problem,” Ozendo said, adding that the industry needs to gradually raise rates for coverage to counter the effects of consumer price increases.

“The danger is real,” Bob Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, said yesterday at the conference. “The rates you put out on the street anticipated a certain amount of increase in frequency and severity and they end up higher than what you anticipated.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jamie McGee in New York at jmcgee8@bloomberg.net





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Hong Kong Is New Target of U.S. Crackdown on Taxes

By David Voreacos, Carlyn Kolker and Alan Katz

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong is a new target of U.S. prosecutors pursuing a global campaign against evaders of federal taxes, spurred by data acquired in their crackdown on Swiss banks.

Prosecutors are trying to determine what role financial professionals in Hong Kong play in tax evasion, according to people familiar with the matter. They are examining how much taxable money was moved to the former British colony that returned to China in 1997, whether accounts were based there in name only and what banks were involved, the people said.

The push follows the government’s success in penetrating Swiss bank secrecy and learning from insiders how UBS AG helped Americans evade taxes. UBS, the largest Swiss bank by assets, avoided prosecution by agreeing in February to pay $780 million and disclose account data on 250 clients. In August, it agreed to supply information on another 4,450.

“They must have reason to believe this is a target-rich environment and a very significant amount of tax evasion is going on there,” said Peter Zeidenberg, a former federal prosecutor now at DLA Piper LLP in Washington.

Since the February settlement, prosecutors have won guilty pleas from six UBS clients who described a web of bankers, lawyers and advisers who helped conceal income and assets. All six hid money in shell companies outside Switzerland. Four used Hong Kong corporations, including toy salesman Jeffrey Chernick.

Probes Beyond Switzerland

Debriefings of Chernick started probes of financial institutions in Switzerland and beyond, “in particular tax- haven jurisdictions such as Hong Kong,” prosecutor Michael Ben’Ary said Oct. 30 at Chernick’s sentencing in Florida.

“From the public statements at the Chernick hearing and elsewhere, the government has made it very clear that they are interested in other secrecy jurisdictions, especially Hong Kong,” said Douglas Tween, an attorney for Chernick, 70.

Chernick told prosecutors he hid sales commissions in an $8 million UBS account in the name of a Hong Kong corporation.

Hong Kong is already changing its laws to implement the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s efforts to enhance tax transparency, said Katherine Kwong, a spokeswoman for the government’s Financial Services and Treasury Bureau.

These changes would help “significantly enhance Hong Kong’s position as a transparent tax jurisdiction,” she said yesterday.

Global Tax Standards

The OECD has a so-called gray list of countries that haven’t complied with global tax standards. Hong Kong announced in February it would put forward legislation to meet them, according to Pascal Saint-Amans, who heads the tax competition division at the OECD. Singapore exited the list today after signing its 12th agreement to share tax information.

The UBS clients who used Hong Kong corporations told prosecutors how their bankers and lawyers helped them set up offshore corporations so their assets would be hidden in accounts that didn’t bear their names, court records show.

Roberto Cittadini, a retired Boeing Co. sales manager, told a federal judge in Seattle Oct. 5 that he didn’t report income from a $1.86 million UBS investment account nominally owned by a Hong Kong corporation.

He said Swiss banker Hansruedi Schumacher and Zurich lawyer Matthias Rickenbach helped him with the account. Schumacher is a former NZB Neue Zuercher Bank manager who once ran the cross- border business for Zurich-based UBS, according to court papers. Both men were indicted Aug. 20 in federal court in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Left the Bank

Schumacher no longer works at NZB, said Patrick Hunger, corporate secretary, in a telephone interview. He declined to say when Schumacher left the bank and wouldn’t provide Schumacher’s new contact details. Messages left at Rickenbach’s office and home weren’t immediately returned.

John McCarthy, a businessman in Malibu, California, admitted Oct. 20 that he failed to declare $1 million in a UBS Swiss account tied to a Hong Kong entity.

“I’ve been told there are active investigations on the West Coast of Hong Kong account holders,” said McCarthy’s attorney, Steven Toscher, of Hochman, Salkin, Rettig, Toscher & Perez in Beverly Hills.

Hong Kong hasn’t been the only tax jurisdiction implicated in the past year. UBS admitted in February that it helped U.S. clients create sham companies in Panama and the British Virgin Islands, while hiding the true owners from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. UBS clients who pleaded guilty also implicated Singapore, Liechtenstein, Mexico and the Cayman Islands.

Information Trove

The IRS is analyzing a trove of information from more than 7,500 taxpayers who voluntarily disclosed their offshore accounts this year to avoid prosecution. To qualify, clients had to disclose everyone who handled their money overseas and everywhere it went.

“We’re going to be scouring the 7,500 disclosures to identify financial institutions, advisers and others” who helped taxpayers cheat on taxes, IRS Commissioner Douglas Shulman said Oct. 14.

He said the IRS is hiring 800 people in the next year and increasing staff in eight overseas offices, including Hong Kong. It also will open offices in Beijing, Sydney and Panama City.

“There is a phenomenal amount of money in undeclared status in Singapore, Hong Kong and maybe now China,” said Scott Michel, an attorney at Caplin & Drysdale in Washington. “The IRS has decided that the template has worked so well for Switzerland that it wants to mimic that investigative strategy with other countries.”

Nominee Accounts

While Hong Kong has strict anti-money laundering measures, it is easy to set up nominee and trust accounts there that obscure the ownership and control of assets, according to the Financial Action Task Force, an inter-governmental body.

“The availability of corporate services and the relative ease with which shell companies can be purchased contribute to the risk of Hong Kong being used for structuring of the proceeds of financial crime, corruption, tax evasion and smuggling,” according to a June 2008 report by the task force, which works to combat money laundering.

Cittadini trusted UBS, as well as Schumacher and Rickenbach, when they advised setting up accounts in Hong Kong and the British Virgin Islands as a way to keep his assets hidden, his lawyer John Colvin said.

“It’s totally routine,” said Colvin, of Chicoine & Hallett PS in Seattle. “It would cost a few hundred or a few thousand dollars at most to set up.”

Reporting Requirement

Schumacher and Rickenbach told Cittadini such accounts were the easiest way to continue investing in U.S. securities while not reporting the income to the IRS, Colvin said. UBS was required to report the income under an agreement it signed with the U.S. in 2000.

David Ellis, a lawyer in Hong Kong, said he was a “bit surprised” to hear that corporations had been used there to help evade U.S. taxes.

“I suspect it’s probably more for the legitimate tax benefits of operating through Hong Kong that Hong Kong companies are used rather than its efficiency in evading U.S. tax,” said Ellis of Mayer Brown JSM. “I would have thought for evading U.S. tax you would want a different jurisdiction. But Hong Kong is maybe the legitimate end of it.”

Zetland Corporate Services in Hong Kong sets up companies for foreign clients, said its managing director, Michael Foggo.

“Our client can act as director and shareholder,” Foggo said. “Sometimes our clients do want us to act as directors for them and provide nominee shareholders if they are looking for confidentiality for whatever reason. It’s not something unique to Hong Kong or any other place in Asia.”

To contact the reporters on this story: David Voreacos in Newark, New Jersey, at dvoreacos@bloomberg.net; Carlyn Kolker in New York at ckolker@bloomberg.net; Alan Katz in Paris at akatz5@bloomberg.net.





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German Economic Recovery Accelerated in Third Quarter

By Jana Randow

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s economic recovery accelerated in the third quarter as government stimulus programs fueled company spending and a rebound in global trade boosted exports.

Gross domestic product increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent from the second quarter, when it rose 0.4 percent, the Federal Statistics Office said in Wiesbaden today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 35 economists was for growth of 0.8 percent. French GDP gained 0.3 percent in the quarter, half the increase forecast by economists, and the Italian economy also grew less than expected.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is spending 85 billion euros ($126 billion) to haul Europe’s largest economy out of its worst recession since World War II. Germany’s recovery probably helped the 16-nation euro area return to growth in the third quarter. Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics arm in Luxembourg, publishes data for the region at 11 a.m. today.

“It’s quite a healthy pace of recovery for the German economy,” said Giada Giani, an economist at Citigroup in London. Taking the French data into account, “the euro area will still post a pretty solid reading, although probably not as strong as some might have expected.”

The euro rose after the German report, trading 0.3 percent higher at $1.4890. The yield on the German 10-year benchmark bond fell 2 basis points to 3.34 percent.

European Recovery

Economists predict euro-region growth of a 0.5 percent in the third quarter as its biggest members shake off their recessions. Still, France, which like Germany resumed growth in the second quarter, was expected to post a 0.6 percent increase in GDP in the three months through September.

Italian GDP grew 0.6 percent, less than the 0.8 percent forecast by economists. Austria’s economy expanded 0.9 percent in the quarter and Dutch GDP rose 0.4 percent.

The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, also started to grow again in the third quarter. By contrast, the U.K.’s contracted 0.4 percent, prolonging its worst recession on record, and Spain’s shrank 0.3 percent.

Today’s data may fortify the European Central Bank in its plan to start withdrawing emergency measures designed to help the economy through the financial crisis. President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled last week that the ECB, which has cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 1 percent, is unlikely to offer commercial banks 12-month loans next year.

Growth Drivers

Exports and investment in equipment and construction were the main drivers of growth in Germany in the quarter, the statistics office said. Imports also rose “strongly,” contributing to an increase in inventories. Private consumption was a drag on growth, the office said.

From a year earlier, the economy shrank 4.8 percent when adjusted for the number of working days. The government last month raised its economic outlook, forecasting expansion of 1.2 percent in 2010 after a 5 percent contraction in 2009.

“The bad times are over but the good times have not started yet,” said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING in Brussels. “The export-driven recovery is all well and good but in order to shift into a higher gear, the German economy needs domestic demand.”

Germany’s benchmark DAX share index has eased 1 percent in the past month amid concern the recovery will slow when government stimulus measures peter out and higher joblessness constrains spending. Investor confidence fell more than economists forecast in November.

Rising Unemployment

The government’s so-called cash-for-clunkers program, which boosted domestic sales at carmakers such as Volkswagen AG and Daimler AG in the first half of the year, expired in September.

Some companies have shed staff in order to boost profits. HeidelbergCement AG, Germany’s biggest cement maker, said on Nov. 4 that it is “very optimistic” for 2010 and 2011 as the construction industry emerges from its worst slump in decades and cost-cutting efforts pay off. Heidelberg reduced its workforce by almost 9,000 this year.

Euro-region unemployment will jump to 10.9 percent in 2011 from 9.7 percent currently, the European Commission predicted on Nov. 3. It expects the economy to expand 0.7 percent in 2010 after contracting 4 percent this year.

Exports may also falter if a rebound in global trade runs out of steam and the euro continues to strengthen. The currency has appreciated 19 percent against the dollar since mid- February, making European goods more expensive abroad.

Stronger Euro

“The strong euro is turning more and more into a problem,” said Joerg Lueschow, an economist at WestLB in Dusseldorf. “Global trade isn’t as dynamic as before the crisis. As a result, competition is getting stronger and exchange rates matter more than in times of strong demand.”

Germany’s statistics office revised second-quarter growth from 0.3 percent. It may also revise today’s figures when it publishes a detailed breakdown for the third quarter on Nov. 24.

“Orders and sentiment indicators suggest that the economy will continue to develop favorably in the months ahead,” said Alexander Koch, chief German economist at UniCredit in Munich. “Growth will slow somewhat, but the recovery remains solid.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jana Randow in Frankfurt at jrandow@bloomberg.net.





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Europe’s Economy Emerges From Recession on Exports

By Simone Meier

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The euro-area economy emerged from its worst recession since World War II in the third quarter as exports from Germany and France helped compensate for households’ reluctance to increase spending.

Gross domestic product in the economy of the 16 nations using the euro rose 0.4 percent from the second quarter, when it fell 0.2 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had forecast the economy to grow 0.5 percent, according to the median of 34 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Europe’s economy is gathering strength after governments stepped up stimulus measures and the European Central Bank injected billions of euros into markets to encourage lending. While confidence in the economic outlook is at a 13-month high, rising unemployment, the expiration of stimulus plans and a surging euro are threatening to undermine a recovery.

“The euro-zone economy has officially turned the corner and that is cause for relief, but not celebration,” said Martin van Vliet, a senior economist at ING Bank in Amsterdam. “The economy remains in a fragile state and is recovering mainly because of government stimulus and temporary inventory effects.”

The euro was little changed against the dollar after the release, trading at $1.4874 at 10:30 a.m. in London after rising as high as $1.4902 earlier today. The yield on the German 10- year benchmark bond dropped 0.2 basis points to 3.34 percent.

Global Economy

In the year, euro-area GDP declined a seasonally adjusted 4.1 percent in the July-September period after dropping 4.8 percent in the second quarter. In the 27-nation EU, GDP rose 0.2 percent from the previous three-month period, when it dropped 0.3 percent. The statistics office is scheduled to publish a breakdown of third-quarter GDP on Dec. 3.

The global economy is also gathering steam, led by China, where the manufacturing industry expanded at the fastest pace in 18 months in October. In the U.S., the world’s biggest economy, leading economic indicators rose for a sixth month in September.

Lafarge SA, the world’s largest cement maker based in Paris, witnessed the “first signs of stabilization in the global economic slowdown” in the third quarter, according to Chief Executive Officer Bruno Lafont. Stefan Jacoby, head of Volkswagen AG’s North America division, said on Nov. 11 that “things are looking up” for Europe’s biggest carmaker.

Largest Economy

In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, GDP rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent from the second quarter, when it increased 0.4 percent. The French economy expanded 0.3 percent in the third quarter, while Italy showed 0.6 percent growth. All three GDP figures were below economist forecasts.

Europe’s recovery is being threatened by the dollar’s 18 percent slide against the euro and the region’s policy makers are calling on China to shoulder some of that burden by allowing the yuan to appreciate. China has kept its currency steady against the dollar since July 2008 and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Nov. 5 that a stronger yuan would be “welcome.”

While China’s central bank this week scrapped a pledge in its quarterly report to keep the yuan “basically stable,” President Hu Jintao didn’t address the currency peg in a speech to executives in Singapore today.

Some economies are trailing the European recovery. In the U.K., where Prime Minister Gordon Brown is struggling to shore up his popularity before elections due in June, the economy remains mired in its longest recession on record. GDP dropped 0.4 percent in the third quarter, extending the contraction over sixth quarters. The Spanish economy also contracted for a sixth quarter in the three months through September.

Cosmetics Maker

For now, companies are relying on faster growing markets to bolster sales. Paris-based Pernod Ricard SA, the world’s second- biggest liquor maker, said on Nov. 3 that demand is “very lively” in China and India. L’Oreal SA, the world’s largest cosmetics maker, on Nov. 5 reported stronger demand for shampoos and makeup in Asia and Latin America.

“Sales are accelerating in emerging markets,” L’Oreal CEO Jean-Paul Agon said on that day in Paris. “Overall, the situation is getting better.”

With a global recovery taking hold, central banks have signaled they are ready to wind down some unconventional measures. The ECB left its key rate at 1 percent on Nov. 5 and signaled that it won’t offer banks unlimited cash over 12 months next year. The U.S. Federal Reserve earlier this month outlined the conditions needed for it to raise borrowing costs.

‘At a Trot’

“The euro zone exited recession at a trot rather than at a canter in the third quarter,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight in London. “The likely fragility of the recovery means that both governments and the ECB need to be wary about withdrawing stimulus measures too soon or too aggressively.”

With the euro’s ascent against the dollar since mid- February making exports more expensive and rising unemployment undermining consumer demand, the economy may be slow to gain momentum. Europe’s jobless rate rose to 9.7 percent in September, the highest since January 1999.

Dublin-based Smurfit Kappa Group Plc, Europe’s largest maker of cardboard boxes, said on Nov. 10 that “a consumer-led economic recovery” hasn’t yet materialized. Peter Voser, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, said on Oct. 29 that the outlook remains “very uncertain.”

“The recovery is fragile and sluggish,” International Monetary Fund Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Nov. 13. “The recovery will take place earlier in Asia than in the U.S. and in the U.S. earlier than in Europe.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Dublin at smeier@bloombert.net





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Dollar Drop Too Powerful for Brazil as Reserves Rise

By Oliver Biggadike and Matthew Brown

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil, South Korea, Russia and other developing nations are fighting a losing battle to mute gains in their currencies as a falling dollar and economic recovery create more demand for their assets than central banks can handle.

South Korea Deputy Finance Minister Shin Je Yoon said yesterday the country will leave the level of its currency to market forces after adding about $63 billion to its foreign exchange reserves this year to slow the appreciation of the won. Chile Finance Minister Andres Velasco said the same day that lawmakers approved an increase in local debt sales to finance spending, a move that will allow the government to keep more of its dollar-based savings overseas and slow the peso’s rally.

Governments are amassing record foreign-exchange reserves as they direct central banks to buy dollars in an attempt to stem the greenback’s slide and keep their currencies from appreciating too fast and making their exports too expensive. Half of the 10-best performers in the currency market this year came from developing markets, gaining at least 14 percent on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“It looked for a while like the Bank of Korea was trying to defend 1,200, but it looks like they’ve given up and are just trying to slow the advance,” said Collin Crownover, head of currency management in London at State Street Global Advisors, which has $1.7 trillion under management.

The won, after falling 44 percent against the dollar in March 2009 from its 10-year high of 899.69 to the dollar in October 2007, is now headed for its biggest annual rally since a 15 percent gain in 2004. It traded today at 1,160.32, up 8.6 percent since the end of December.

‘Suffered Tremendously’

Brazil’s real is up 1.6 percent this month, even after imposing a tax in October on foreign stock and bond investments and increasing foreign reserves by $9.5 billion in October in an effort to curb the currency’s appreciation. The real has risen 33 percent this year.

“We have to be careful that our exchange rate doesn’t appreciate too much as to deindustrialize the country,” Marcos Verissimo, chief of staff at Brazil’s state development bank known as BNDES, said yesterday at a conference in Sao Paulo. “The capital goods industry has suffered tremendously.”

Russia’s Bank Rossii increased its foreign reserves by 15 percent since March 13 as it sold rubles in an attempt to cap the currency’s gain. Even so, the surge in commodities prices this year means Russia’s steps to fight a stronger ruble may “not be productive,” the International Monetary Fund said yesterday. Energy, including oil and natural gas, accounted for 69.5 percent of exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union and the Baltic states in the first nine months, according the Federal Customs Service.

Dollar Index

“There are changes in the underlying factors that call for a more appreciated exchange rate,” Odd Per Brekk, the Washington-based IMF’s senior representative in Russia, told reporters.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency’s performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, touched 74.774 on Nov. 11, the lowest level since August 2008, and has fallen 16 percent from the high this year of 89.624 on March 4 to 75.550 today.

Much of the greenback’s decline stems from investors borrowing funds in the U.S., where the target benchmark interest rate is between zero and 0.25 percent. They then invest the proceeds in countries with higher rates and faster growing economies.

World Bank, France

World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the recent fall of the dollar is a response to the currency’s earlier rise and to market dynamics, giving the U.S. few near-term options for changing its course.

The value of the dollar depends on confidence in dollar- denominated assets and also to the movements of other currencies, Zoellick told Asia-Pacific business leaders in Singapore today. The dollar grew in value during the height of the financial crisis because investors viewed it as a safe haven, he said.

France’s Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said in an interview in Singapore today that her government favors a “strong” dollar as an appreciating euro threatens to hurt European exports.

International Investment

An unprecedented net $47 billion flowed into equities in India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand in the last three quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That eclipsed the previous full-year high of $33 billion in 2005, nine year of data show.

“The dollar is weakening because the U.S. has the lowest short-term interest rates in the world will be the sell side of the carry trade as long as that remains true,” Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, wrote in a note to clients yesterday.

Chile’s peso has strengthened 26 percent this year versus the dollar, the second-biggest gain among Latin American currencies after the 33 percent rise in the Brazilian real.

South Korea’s economy expanded 6 percent in the nine months ended in September, the fastest rate since it grew 6.9 percent during the same period in 2002. The rebound came as companies such as Hyundai Motor Co. in Seoul and Samsung Electronics Co. in Suwon reported surging profits driven by exports.

‘Hard to Fight’

Brazil’s economy emerged from a recession in the second quarter, swinging to a 1.9 percent expansion after six months of contraction, a Sept. 11 report from the statistics agency showed. Six straight months of job growth, coupled with tax breaks and record low borrowing costs, pushed up consumer spending and helped Latin America’s largest economy rebound from the global financial crisis.

“I hear a lot of noise reflecting the government’s discomfort with the exchange rate, but it is hard to fight this,” said Rodrigo Azevedo, the monetary policy director of Brazil’s central bank from 2004 to 2007. “There is very little Brazil can do,” said Azevedo, who runs $1.8 billion at JGP SA in Rio de Janeiro, in an Oct. 16 interview.

To contact the reporter on this story: Oliver Biggadike in New York at obiggadike@bloomberg.netMatthew Brown in London at brown42@bloomberg.net





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Pound May Fall to One-Month Low Versus Yen: Technical Analysis

By Yasuhiko Seki and Kazumi Miura

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The British currency may fall to the lowest level in more than one month against the yen, Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

The pound is about to enter a downtrend as it forms a so- called dead cross in which its short-term conversion line falls below a longer-term baseline on an ichimoku chart, said Kumiko Gervaise, a Tokyo-based currency analyst at the research unit of Gaitame, Japan’s biggest currency margin trader.

“The 60-day moving average has come to a critical level in comparison to the 200-day moving average, which may open the way for the U.K. currency to decline toward the lowest level this month and eventually 140 yen,” she said.

The pound’s 60-day moving average stood at 148.654 and the 200-day moving average was at 148.653, an ichimoku chart shows. The pound fell to as low as 145.81 on Nov. 2, and the currency last traded below the 140 yen mark on Oct. 7.

The pound was at 149.77 yen as of 8:47 a.m. in Tokyo from 149.81 yesterday in New York.

An ichimoku chart analyzes the midpoints of historic highs and lows. The conversion line is the same calculation over the past nine trading days. The baseline on the ichimoku chart is the sum of the highest high and the lowest low over the past 26 trading days.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study chart of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporters on this story: Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at Yseki5@bloomberg.net; Kazumi Miura in Tokyo at kmiura@bloomberg.net





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Former HSBC Executive Chen Pleads Guilty to Bribery Charges

By Debra Mao

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Former HSBC Holdings Plc executive Chen Ching-hsiao pleaded guilty to charges that he accepted a $60,000 bribe from a client seeking credit facilities.

The former senior vice president at HSBC’S commercial- banking department said “yes” when asked if he was pleading guilty at the Hong Kong District Court today.

“The prosecution’s case was not strong, but my client wanted to avoid the embarrassment of a lengthy trial,” Chen’s lawyer Barry Chin said. Chen faces as much as 2 to 3 years in prison, Chin said. Judge P. Li scheduled sentencing for Nov. 30.

Chen accepted a bribe from an unidentified Taiwanese client in June 2007 in return for “recommending or approving” two credit facilities, Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption said Oct. 22.

HSBC referred the case to the anti-graft agency and provided “full assistance” during the investigation, according to the ICAC statement. Gareth Hewett, a spokesman for HSBC in Hong Kong, declined to comment before today’s hearing.

The case is Department of Justice v. Chen Ching Hsiao, DCCC 1184/2009, Hong Kong District Court No. 27.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debra Mao in Hong Kong at dmao5@bloomberg.net





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British Pound Strengthens Against Euro, Climbs Against Dollar

By Daniel Tilles

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The pound rose against the euro, strengthening 0.2 percent to 89.41 pence as of 7:41 a.m. in London. Sterling advanced 0.3 percent to $1.6631.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Tilles in London at dtilles@bloomberg.net





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U.S. Treasury Confident Congress Will Increase Debt Ceiling

By Rebecca Christie

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration is confident Congress will raise the country’s debt limit by year end to avert a showdown similar to the one that shuttered parts of the government in 1995, administration officials said.

The White House wants an increase of at least $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, according to a person familiar with the deliberations between lawmakers and the administration. Record budget deficits are pushing the national debt closer to the $12.1 trillion statutory limit.

The administration’s request, higher than a proposed increase already passed in the House of Representatives, would get the government through the November 2010 midterm congressional elections without needing another increase. Earlier this month, Treasury officials acknowledged they’ll need more borrowing room by year-end to avoid market disruptions.

“Market participants still remain on edge, especially since many have concerns over the rising debt loads that were kicked off this year,” said George Goncalves, chief fixed- income rates strategist in New York at primary dealer Cantor Fitzgerald LP.

The administration officials said the White House is open to any legislative vehicle that will raise the debt limit, by any amount. Although the Obama administration has pledged to bring deficits down to “sustainable” levels in the longer term, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has focused recently on the need to keep up spending on economic assistance programs until the unemployment rate, which reached a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October, comes down.

TARP Savings

To rein in the 2010 deficit, the administration will save as much as it can from unused portions of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, another administration official said. Treasury data show that the administration has more than $200 billion in uncommitted TARP funds.

One Treasury official said the memory of the 1995 budget standoff should be motivation to avoid another showdown. In that confrontation, then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich battled with the White House over federal budget bills, forcing President Bill Clinton to shut the government down temporarily.

With the economy still in the early recovery stage, Congress understands the stakes and doesn’t want to fuel investor concern, the official said.

Republicans in Congress are seeking to link the debt limit to the debate over health-care spending, while Democrats prefer to keep the two issues separate. The Senate Budget Committee has proposed a commission to look into the nation’s fiscal health, which backers say should be a condition of any debt limit increase.

‘Not Right’

“We’re seeing deficits projected for the next 10 years of over a trillion dollars a year,” said Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee, in congressional comments last week. “It’s not sustainable. It’s not fair, and it’s not right.”

Treasury debt-management director Karthik Ramanathan told bond market participants in Washington last week to expect another year of government debt sales of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion in fiscal year 2010, which began Oct. 1, according to minutes of the meeting.

For fiscal year 2009, which ended Sept. 30, the U.S. racked up a $1.4 trillion deficit, and the Congressional Budget Office in August predicted a deficit this year of about the same size.

Treasury officials also have said they have less maneuvering room than in the past. Tactics such as tapping federal retirement funds would free up roughly $150 billion - about the same amount as the interest payments that come due on Dec. 31.

Temporary Measures

“Depending on the date that we hit the debt limit, they could last days or at most weeks,” compared with five or six months in previous debt-limit impasses, said Matthew Rutherford, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for federal finance, in a press conference last week.

Forecasting a precise date for a debt-ceiling collision is difficult because the government’s cash flows are “volatile,” the Treasury said last week, adding that it would keep markets and lawmakers notified of developments. The department said it could need extra immediate cash because there’s so much uncertainty surrounding incoming taxes and outgoing spending on fiscal stimulus and financial market stabilization programs.

“Debt ceiling showdowns used to be long, drawn-out affairs,” said Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey. “Things come to a head much faster when your cash burn rate averages more than $100 billion a month.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Rebecca Christie in Washington at rchristie4@bloomberg.net





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Asian Commodity Stocks Fall, Bonds Rise; China Shares Rally

By Patrick Rial and Akiko Ikeda

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Asian commodity stocks declined, led by BHP Billiton Ltd. and PetroChina Co., and bonds climbed on concern the pace of the global economic recovery will slow. China stocks rose on speculation the yuan will appreciate.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 117.69 as of 3:50 p.m. in Tokyo, paring a weekly advance to 1.1 percent. The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond fell three basis points to 1.34 percent. Chinese yuan forwards climbed and shares rallied in Hong Kong and Shanghai as President Barack Obama arrived in Asia to push for more flexible exchange rates.

Crude oil traded near $77 after tumbling 3 percent in New York yesterday as U.S. stockpiles rose more than economists had forecast. China’s surging asset prices, a dollar collapse and a double-dip global recession are the biggest risks investors face in 2010, Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Corp.’s chief global equity strategist, wrote in a report issued yesterday.

“Lower commodity prices illustrate anxiety about the economy,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, a strategist in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., which oversees about $56 billion.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury notes rose, pushing the yield down two basis points to 3.43 percent, after Obama said the U.S. “desperately” needs jobs. The dollar fell 0.2 percent to $1.4877 per euro after gaining 0.9 percent yesterday as investors sold higher-yielding assets. South Korean three-year yields declined eight basis points to 4.26 percent.

Stimulus Withdrawal

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned at a gathering of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group that late withdrawal of monetary stimulus may stoke asset bubbles. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak said policy makers must avoid prematurely ending fiscal programs until a “real” recovery is secured.

BHP, Australia’s largest oil producer, lost 1.4 percent to A$39.01 in Sydney. PetroChina, the nation’s biggest oil producer, fell 1.5 percent to HK$9.93.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dipped 0.4 percent to 9,770.31. Mitsui & Co., whose profit is the most sensitive among Japan’s five largest trading houses to changes in the price of oil, lost 1.1 percent to 1,184 yen.

“There are still skeptical investors out there who don’t think the global recovery will be sustained and this is tempering the advance in equities,” said Allan Yu, who helps manage $4.24 billion at Manila-based Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. “The market is trying not to run ahead of itself.”

Oil, Gold Fall

Oil declined after an Energy Department report showed crude inventories rose a more-than-expected 1.76 million barrels last week and U.S. refinery operating rates fell to the lowest in more than a year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast a 1 million-barrel gain.

“There is a lot of uncertainty as to what we can expect with the rate of recovery in Western oil demand,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “There are sectors of the economy that remain weak.”

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as 1.2 percent to $76 a barrel and was recently at $77.07. Futures, up 73 percent in 2009, have dropped 0.5 percent this week.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.2 percent to $1,108 per ounce, after touching an all-time high of $1,123.40 yesterday. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold producer, slumped 2.8 percent to A$34.57.

The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, slipped 0.1 percent, ending a two-day, 0.9 percent advance. The U.S. currency dropped to the lowest since Aug. 8, 2008, during trading on Nov. 11, helping spur demand for gold as a store of value.

Yuan Appreciation?

Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards for the yuan rose 0.3 percent to 6.5895 per dollar in Shanghai, signaling traders are betting China will shift its currency peg of about 6.83 per dollar that’s been in place since July 2008. The Shanghai B- Share Stock Price Index, a gauge of dollar-denominated Chinese shares, jumped 9 percent on speculation corporate earnings in yuan will be bolstered by a stronger currency.

The Hang Seng Index climbed 0.6 percent to 22,520.05, led by China stocks. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s most profitable bank, rose 1.4 percent to HK$6.76 after predicting loan profitability will improve.

APEC ministers yesterday called for “market-orientated exchange rates,” without naming the yuan. The People’s Bank of China this week said foreign-exchange policy will take into account global capital flows and changes in major currencies and scrapped language in a previous report to keep the yuan “basically stable.” The economy expanded by 8.9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier.

“There has been a subtle message sent that as China’s economy starts to recover, it’s probably appropriate for the PBOC to move back to a managed float,” Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia in Hong Kong, said in an interview. A shift may not be imminent and wouldn’t reach the 15 percent to 20 percent that some U.S. lawmakers have demanded, he said.

To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net; Akiko Ikeda in Tokyo at iakiko@bloomberg.net.





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China Rejects Requests for $29 Billion of New Plants

By Bloomberg News

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s third-largest economy, rejected requests to build industrial projects worth almost 200 billion yuan ($29 billion), and said it plans new measures to close factories to curb overcapacity and pollution.

The government will target the steel, aluminum, coke, cement, paper and utility industries, Zhu Xingxiang, director of environment evaluation department at the Ministry of Environmental Protection, said today in Beijing.

“This shows China’s confident enough about the momentum of growth to begin addressing structural excess capacity problems,” said David Cohen, an economist with Action Economics in Singapore. “One of the motives will be to improve the profitability of existing companies.”

The measures underscore China’s determination to prevent record bank lending from fueling an investment bubble without imposing restrictions that may endanger an economic rebound. Overcapacity is stalling a profit recovery at steelmakers including Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. with prices falling 18 percent since touching a 10-month high on August 4.

“The steel industry is the focus of our supervision,” Zhu said. “There is too much capacity being built without government approval.”

Baoshan Iron & Steel, the largest Chinese mill, dropped 2.6 percent to 7.45 yuan at 1:34 p.m. local time in Shanghai trading. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the biggest maker of the metal in the nation, fell 1.4 percent to HK$8.64 in Hong Kong trading.

Stable Growth

“Industry restructuring is a long, tough and important task,” Li Pumin, a spokesman at the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner, said at the same conference today. “The purpose of that is to ensure the stablilty and continuity of economic growth.”

Urban fixed-asset investment surged 33.1 percent in the first 10 months of the year, the Chinese government said this week. Officials have indicated they plan to tighten lending terms after an 8.92 trillion yuan ($1.31 trillion) boom in new loans in January to October.

The government’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus spending has spurred overproduction of steel and rising inventories has led to lower prices, the China Iron & Steel Association said this month. The U.S. this year imposed antidumping charges on some Chinese steel products, which U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said today weren’t protectionist measures.

The proposed policies may include closing or relocating “seriously-polluting” plants, helping factories upgrade their technology, and offering compensation to companies and workers for closures, Zhu said today. Trials will be conducted before the measures are implemented nationwide, he said.

Tighten Approval

“In the future, we are also tightening approval for hydropower projects as they will damage local biology and fishing,” Zhu said.

The ministry is also conducting an environmental review of planned steel projects in Shandong province after local governments approved construction without proper evaluation, Zhu said. The environmental protection bureau in June suspended works at Shandong Rizhao Steel Holding Co.’s steel plate project and Weifang Iron & Steel Group’s 5-million-ton project.

The Chinese government banned the expansion of coke projects for three years in September, and has said it will eliminate 800,000 metric tons of aluminum smelting capacity. Coke is used to make steel and aluminum is used in car parts and packaging.

China’s plans to close more coke plants may inflame an existing trade dispute with the U.S. and the European Union, which last week filed a World Trade Organization complaint over the Asian nation’s export restrictions on the product.

The Ministry of Land and Resources has rejected almost half of the 431 applications made this year for land usage, including requests from the steel, cement and glass industries, Dong Zuoji, director of land planning, said at the same conference.

--Xiao Yu and Kevin Hamlin. Editors: Tan Hwee Ann, Jacob Lloyd- Smith.

To contact the Bloomberg News Staff of this story: Xiao Yu in Beijing at yxiao@bloomberg.net; Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.net





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