FX Thoughts for the Day

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services | Apr 07 09 14:07 GMT |

USD-CHF @ 1.1457/61...Resistance Area 1.1480-1.1540 R: 1.1480-1.1511 / 1.1541 / 1.1582-97 S: 1.1439 / 1.1363 / 1.1300 Swiss is testing the Resistance area (1.1490-1.1540). Till this Resistance holds, further rise rise could be restricted. We had profited out of the Long at 1.1461 entered at 1.1375 during the day which saw the pair rise from 1.1346-1.1479. We expect it to come down towards 1.14 after facing Resistance from the area mentioned above. Cable GBP-USD @ 1.4643/46...Support region 1.4561-44 R: 1.4767 / 1.4791 / 1.4843 S: 1.4588 / 1.4561-44 / 1.4498 Cable fell further and took Support at the the 100-day MA at 1.4561. A break below may next target 1.43 but this Support at 1.4561-44 likely to be honoured during the US session. As mentioned earlier a dip towards 1.43 would possibly be the trough of the wave which began on 11th March 2009 and of the subwave which began on 30th March 2009. Though the projected Max Low for the day is at 1.4498, this possibly may not be seen today. Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.7080/84...Support at 0.7050 held R: 0.7138 / 0.7203 / 0.7522 S: 0.7024-00 / 0.6950 / 0.6920 Aussie rose towards 0.7170 during the day and has fallen from there and continues within the range of 0.7050-0.7227. The downside is likely to be restricted to the Projected Max Low for the day at 0.7024. A break of this Support is likely to take Support near 0.6950. The trendline Resistance at 0.72 held which has been pushing the pair down. To see the chart of Aussie, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle Kshitij Consultancy Service http://www.fxthoughts.com Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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Currency Currents

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Black Swan Capital | Apr 07 09 14:23 GMT |

Key News The Reserve Bank of Australia Tuesday fine tuned monetary policy by cutting interest rates a further one quarter of a percentage point to a 49-year low, saying the economy is contracting, but at a slower pace than other major economies. (WSJ) Europe's Recession Deepens More Than Estimated on Investment, Consumption (Bloomberg) Key Reports Due (WSJ): 7:45 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Apr 4: Previous: +1.1%. 8:55 a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Apr 4: Previous: +0.2%. 2:00 p.m. Mar Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes 3:00 p.m. Feb Consumer Credit: Expected: -$2.9B. Previous: +$1.76B 4:30 p.m. API Oil Industry Report For Apr 3 5:00 p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Apr 4: Previous: -49. Quotable "Socialists believe in government ownership of the means of production. Fascists believed in government control of privately owned businesses ... That way, politicians can intervene whenever they feel like it and then, when their interventions turn out badly, summon executives from the private sector before Congress and denounce them on nationwide television." Thomas Sowell FX Trading - Bad News: In or Not-Yet-In? What's the story? Is bad news priced into the markets? More specifically, is the crummy potential for first quarter US earnings season priced into markets? Alcoa kicks things off today and clearly the expectations for the season are dismal. About somewhere just south of a 40% contraction in overall earnings is expected in companies' first-quarter showing. Considering the labor situation (among other things) it's clear that corporate health is still on the skids. Stocks, however, have rallied strongly over the last month, recovering from big-time lows. Was that the calm before the storm? I guess, to answer that question, we first need to expect there will be another storm. And we do. Yes. Expectations are low for companies who must reveal their Q1 financial positions soon. One might think such low expectations leave the door open for potential upside earnings surprises and, thus, potential for upside on share prices. In the near-term, risk-appetite will ebb and flow with earnings numbers. But the real story on risk will come about not from past performance, but rather the potential for recovery here and in the rest of the world. Again, with OECD forecasts recently setting global growth prospects a couple more notches lower, one might also think the potential for growth surprises lies mostly to the upside. Careful. We wonder, based on world governments' bailout and regulatory policies blanketing the global economic driving countries, are we setting up to experience a new round of pain for the same reasons the pain began in the first place? We've recognized the symptoms of this crisis, but it seems we fail to accept an accurate diagnosis of the problem. (Of course, when I say "we" I mean it to be read as "top officials.") If more of the same symptoms recur ... or if the current virus morphs into a new strain of growth destruction ... or if market players determine our top officials' remedies are actually more hurtful than helpful ... then we're in for a substantial bout of risk-averse capital flow. To revisit a question I recently asked in the pages of Currency Currents: have stocks bottomed? I'm still leaning towards no. The growing potential for economic disappointment (due to further growth contraction as well as overly-confident, economically-myopic policy makers) leaves stocks set-up for a major wave of selling. And we know what risk-aversion has come to mean for currencies. Jack Crooks Black Swan Capital http://www.blackswantrading.com Black Swan Capital's Currency Snapshot is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized investment advice. The money you allocate to futures or forex should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. Detailed disclaimer can be found at http://www.blackswantrading.com/disclaimer.html

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Currency Currents

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Black Swan Capital | Apr 07 09 14:23 GMT |

Key News The Reserve Bank of Australia Tuesday fine tuned monetary policy by cutting interest rates a further one quarter of a percentage point to a 49-year low, saying the economy is contracting, but at a slower pace than other major economies. (WSJ) Europe's Recession Deepens More Than Estimated on Investment, Consumption (Bloomberg) Key Reports Due (WSJ): 7:45 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Apr 4: Previous: +1.1%. 8:55 a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Apr 4: Previous: +0.2%. 2:00 p.m. Mar Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes 3:00 p.m. Feb Consumer Credit: Expected: -$2.9B. Previous: +$1.76B 4:30 p.m. API Oil Industry Report For Apr 3 5:00 p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Apr 4: Previous: -49. Quotable "Socialists believe in government ownership of the means of production. Fascists believed in government control of privately owned businesses ... That way, politicians can intervene whenever they feel like it and then, when their interventions turn out badly, summon executives from the private sector before Congress and denounce them on nationwide television." Thomas Sowell FX Trading - Bad News: In or Not-Yet-In? What's the story? Is bad news priced into the markets? More specifically, is the crummy potential for first quarter US earnings season priced into markets? Alcoa kicks things off today and clearly the expectations for the season are dismal. About somewhere just south of a 40% contraction in overall earnings is expected in companies' first-quarter showing. Considering the labor situation (among other things) it's clear that corporate health is still on the skids. Stocks, however, have rallied strongly over the last month, recovering from big-time lows. Was that the calm before the storm? I guess, to answer that question, we first need to expect there will be another storm. And we do. Yes. Expectations are low for companies who must reveal their Q1 financial positions soon. One might think such low expectations leave the door open for potential upside earnings surprises and, thus, potential for upside on share prices. In the near-term, risk-appetite will ebb and flow with earnings numbers. But the real story on risk will come about not from past performance, but rather the potential for recovery here and in the rest of the world. Again, with OECD forecasts recently setting global growth prospects a couple more notches lower, one might also think the potential for growth surprises lies mostly to the upside. Careful. We wonder, based on world governments' bailout and regulatory policies blanketing the global economic driving countries, are we setting up to experience a new round of pain for the same reasons the pain began in the first place? We've recognized the symptoms of this crisis, but it seems we fail to accept an accurate diagnosis of the problem. (Of course, when I say "we" I mean it to be read as "top officials.") If more of the same symptoms recur ... or if the current virus morphs into a new strain of growth destruction ... or if market players determine our top officials' remedies are actually more hurtful than helpful ... then we're in for a substantial bout of risk-averse capital flow. To revisit a question I recently asked in the pages of Currency Currents: have stocks bottomed? I'm still leaning towards no. The growing potential for economic disappointment (due to further growth contraction as well as overly-confident, economically-myopic policy makers) leaves stocks set-up for a major wave of selling. And we know what risk-aversion has come to mean for currencies. Jack Crooks Black Swan Capital http://www.blackswantrading.com Black Swan Capital's Currency Snapshot is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized investment advice. The money you allocate to futures or forex should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. Detailed disclaimer can be found at http://www.blackswantrading.com/disclaimer.html

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Euro Zone GDP Was Revised Down to a Fall of 1.5% Unexpectedly...

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ecPulse.com | Apr 07 09 14:15 GMT |

Deeper contraction, the fourth quarter GDP reading was revised down today to -1.6% on the quarter and -1.5% on the year. Based on the available data, the euro area will continue to struggle with their prolonged recession that extended from the prior year to dominate this year’s activity. This is the first recession since the Euro was established; it took ten years to fall in their first collapse, it was not meant to happen but the vast deterioration in the world financial markets and the spillover from United States sub-prime mortgages was the main reason behind this tumbling. Exports fell drastically in the fourth quarter, according to the data released today exports had fallen 6.7% from the third quarter reading -0.3%. Even if the export reading was revised upward to current levels we still see a marked weakness in the levels of worldwide demand on the European goods especially they are becoming more expensive to trade partners such as the United Kingdom. Moreover, the weakness was also obvious in the imports levels, where imports fell 4.7% in the fourth quarter ensuring all projections that domestic demand had weakened heavily after the levels of unemployment rates surged. However, those data are glooming our projections because in the levels of Unemployment rates in the fourth quarter did not reach those elevated levels which means that at that domestic demand was not pressured with the levels of terminated jobs. To ensure that growth of the first quarter will dip to more the current levels we have seen yesterday the euro areas retail sales where it fell 0.6% on the month and 4.0% on the year. The other details in the GDP table clears household spending had fallen 0.3% on the quarter and 0.5% on the year from the prior quarter. The intensification of the credit crisis had dragged growth readings to retract to the current levels, which had resulted in pushing the European Central Bank to reduce their benchmark rates three consecutive times, yet even the rate cuts did not cushion growth levels. Trichet and his committee were obligated top consider wider rate reduction where today we see the zones interest rates at 1.25% a record low according to the ten year history. Where last week the ECB decided to reduce 25 basis points unexpectedly adding that they would consider Non-standard measures in the upcoming meeting open the path for more speculations and fear. Along with those weak data, the European indices fell ahead US earnings later today, Dow Jones euro stoxx fell 1.40% or 30.58 points reaching 2149.15 levels, followed by the French CAC 40 index losing 1.38% or 40.49 points reaching 2888.78 levels and the German lost 1.24% or 53.02 points reaching 4298.82 levels. Ecpulse disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk

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USD Higher, IMF Says Toxic Assets May Reach $4 Trillion

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Easy Forex | Apr 07 09 14:11 GMT |

FX Highlights BOJ leaves monetary policy unchanged, economic assessment unchanged, pace of export output declines to moderate, BOJ will increase lending of municipal bonds The Japanese government will announce new stimulus package Wednesday, JPY higher supported by a spike in risk aversion and weaker equities UK Times reports that the IMF will issue warning that toxic assets could rise to $4 Trillion, the Times report sparked selling of equities and safe haven flows to the USD and JPY, risk appetite falls RBA cuts overnight rates 25 basis points to 3%, says global economy continues to contract, credit demand weak, labor market weak, further rate adjustments will be moderate, AUD pares early decline as rate cut smaller than expected Australia's March PCI rises 0.9 points to 30.4 EU Q4 GDP falls 1.6%, EUR pressured by selling of EUR/JPY cross, weak GDP and declining equity markets UK February industrial production falls 1%, February manufacturing production falls 0.9%, GBP lower pressured by week UK data, risk aversion and poor reception for UK ten year gilt auction The Fed announced agreement on currency swaps with the BOJ, BOE, SNB and ECB to try and help stabilize global financial markets Russia seeks IMF report on possible global reserve currency US equity market set to open lower, European equities close 1% lower, Nikkei closed 25 points lower Upcoming Events US –Tuesday, February consumer credit would be released expected at -1bln compared to 1.7bln last month By Michael J. Malpede Easy Forex Michael J. Malpede is Chief Market Analyst with Easy-Forex® and has previously been featured on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg radio, Reuters, MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun Times, Toronto Star and Nikkei press. In analyzing the markets, he draws from 29 years of Foreign Exchange Research as a Foreign Exchange Analyst. Please note that Forex trading (OTC Trading) involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone. This report is provided by Easy- Forex® for informative purposes only. In no way it is a recommendation by Easy-Forex® for you to engage in any trade. It is your sole responsibility and you will have no claims with regards to this report against Easy-Forex®. If you do not agree to this, you are strongly advised not to use this report. Hence, Easy-Forex® shall not be held responsible for any outcome of trading decisions, in regards with this report or similar reports.

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Afternoon Forex Overview

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group | Apr 07 09 14:08 GMT |

Previous session overview Dollar demand is back on a return of financial sector woes Tuesday. The greenback is higher versus its European counterparts and the commodity currencies at the start of earnings season and on a report that says the International Monetary Fund has increased its forecast for toxic debts accumulated by banks and insurers worldwide to USD4 trillion. The euro and U.K. pound's decline Tuesday also comes after they were unable to break beyond technical levels Monday before traders took profits off their recent rally. Tuesday morning in New York, the euro was at USD1.3273 from USD1.3414 late Monday. The dollar was at JPY100.18 from JPY101.0. The euro was at JPY132.97 from JPY135.49. The U.K. pound was at USD1.4673 from USD1.4751, while the dollar was at CHF1.1442 from CHF1.1367. Final official data Tuesday showed the record contraction in the euro-zone economy in the fourth quarter was even sharper than initially estimated. Gross domestic product contracted 1.6% on the quarter and 1.5% on the year in the final three months of 2008, the biggest contraction by both measures since records began in 1995. The Canadian dollar is lower again Tuesday morning as risk aversion remains the dominant theme in markets. Market expectation Currencies will likely continue to follow risk appetite and stock performance Tuesday with no key U.S. data to affect markets. EURUSD rebounds modestly to USD1.3275 area, trying to track cable higher but also feeling the weight from a soggy euro-sterling, traders say, while another posits that the pair continues to exhibit a heavy tone and the ease at which euro comes off scares people. Resistance eyed earlier at USD1.3280 area providing a hurdle to further gains. Bids back at USD1.3220. Pound recovery managed to stretch up to USD1.4714 before faltering, the rate then correcting back to USD1.4683 (23.6% USD1.4583/1.4714), currently trading around USD1.4690. Bids now seen placed to USD1.4680, a break to allow for a deeper move toward USD1.4665 ahead of USD1.4650. Resistance seen placed at USD1.4715/20, a break to open a retest on USD1.4745/50. EURJPY - Recovery from early US lows under JPY132.30 now stretching back to the JPY133.30 area, despite what looks likely to be a negative open for US stocks. Light offers are noted here, more said to come in around JPY134.00. Dukascopy Swiss FX Group Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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