Economic Calendar

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Risk Appetite Rise Back Gradually

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Crown Forex | Sep 18 08 15:05 GMT |

Majors continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar as the joint effort by central banks to provide more money to financial markets helped restore some of the investors' confidence in the financial markets, yet as the U.S. stocks also rose the dollar started to erase some of its losses acquired early in the morning.

The Euro was trading within a limited range in the morning to set a low of 1.4277 then rose to set a high of 1.4540 but couldn't stay above the 1.4450 levels to trade now at 1.4360s.

The Pound is almost settled against the U.S. dollar as the pair is now trading around its opening levels early in the Asian session, recording for today a high of 1.8276 and a low of 1.8090 just above the support at 1.8080 which continues to support the upside wave.

The U.S. dollar was able to gain back against the Japanese Yen after investors were somehow encouraged into buying higher yielding assets against the Yen, the pair recorded a high of 105.56 and a low of 104.12, and was bale to breach the 38.2% correctional level at 105.04 to the upside.

Crown Forex

disclaimer:The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk.


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Foreign Exchange Market Daily Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Union Bank of California | Sep 18 08 15:02 GMT |

The US dollar weakened against a basket of currencies as jobless claims unexpectedly rose and the spotlight continues to shine on the US financial market. In a data released by the Labor Department, US workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose by 10,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 455,000 which was higher than the forecasted 440,000. However, the number of continued claims – people remaining on benefit rolls after drawing an initial week of aid – unexpectedly fell by 55,000 to 3.48 million last week. On Monday, as Wall Street upheavals began, the bank-to-bank lending froze as overnight lending rates sky rocketed to 10 % to borrow the dollar. In an effort to free up bank-to-bank lending, the US Federal Reserve, and other top central banks joined forces to pump billions of dollars into the global money markets to ease some of the pressure. The Fed injected an extra $180 billion, which was then made available to major banks to lend on to their local commercial banks. Although the extra funds helped calm the markets, analysts predict this relief will only be temporary.

The euro strengthened against the dollar as oil prices climbed and US jobless claims unexpectedly rose. In the past year, the euro-dollar exchange rate trended with oil, and had a correlation of 0.8 %. As the Fed steps in to throw a lifeline to the global markets, the European Central Bank offered $40 billion for one day today, and indicated that the amount could increase as needed.

The Pound Sterling strengthened against the dollar after stronger than expected retail sales. The Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales volumes unexpectedly rose 1.2 % on the month, as analysts forecasted a 0.5 % decline on the month.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar overnight, but erased any gains as investors slowly, but surely, began to partake in carry trades. As central banks around the world intervened to free up the global markets, investors saw this as a chance to be a little less cautious and purchase riskier assets.

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US dollar as oil and gold prices climbed and wholesale trade soared past expectations. After the world's biggest central banks agreed to act jointly, increased confidence in the global economic growth pushed the price of commodities which include oil and gold up. Furthermore, the July Canadian wholesale trade grew 2.3 % from June, which soared past the forecasted 0.5 % gain.

The Australian and New Zealand dollar strengthened against the greenback and yen on higher commodity prices. The Aussie and the Kiwi benefit from the demand in natural resources, as oil rose above $100 a barrel and gold climbed to a six-week high.

Union Bank of California
The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Group

http://www.uboc.com

Disclaimer: This market comment is prepared by Union Bank of California's Global FX &amp Derivatives Department for the general information of its customers. It is based of the most accurate information currently available, but should not considered investment advise or a guarantee of future exchange rate or trends.


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Canadian Dollar May Provide Good Range-Trading Opportunities

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DailyFX | Sep 18 08 14:46 GMT |

In the medium-term, there is a good amount of USD bearish potential given the outlook for interest rates in the US, as the markets are pricing in at least 25bps worth of cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. In the short-term though, USD/CAD could continue to provide good range-trading opportunities as the pair has held between approximately 1.06 - 1.08. Given the bounce from trendline support and the market's positive response to the Federal Reserve's massive $180 billion emergency liquidity injection, I think we could see a bit of a bounce in the dollar today. Stops should be place below the recent spike lows of 1.0577, while 1.0750 (near the top of the range) may serve as a good target.

DailyFX

Disclaimer

Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.


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Euro Surges to 1.45; Beware of a Pullback

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DailyFX | Sep 18 08 14:44 GMT |

The EURUSD broke through 1.4485 and higher prices are certainly possible from here. The bullish outlook is now intact as long as price is above 1.4071.

EUR/USD

The EURUSD broke through 1.4485 and higher prices are certainly possible from here. The bullish outlook is now intact as long as price is above 1.4071. However, the EURUSD is vulnerable to a correction back to the 1.4276-1.4402 zone in a small second wave. The alternate treats the advance from 1.4071 as a C wave that may be complete.

USD/JPY

Evidence that favors bears…

1.) The rally from 95.72 is clearly corrective (3 waves).

2.) It is possible that the drop from 110.65 is a series of 1st and 2nd waves. If this is the case, then the decline will accelerate and the USDJPY will tumble in a 3rd of a 3rd wave soon. This outlook is intact as long as price is below 106.74.

GBP/USD

The rally from 1.7729 may be wave i of 3 (or C). Similar to the EURUSD, the GBPUSD is vulnerable to weakness into the 1.7938-1.8068 zone (Fibonacci zone) before strength continues. As mentioned yesterday, the targets going forward for bulls are at 1.8430 and 1.8878. These are Fibonacci extensions of the 1.7443-1.8133 rally.

USD/CHF

As long as the USDCHF is below 1.1117, our preferred count is that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is down towards 1.0659 (Fibonacci extension).

USD/CAD

There is no change to the USDCAD analysis. “The USDCAD reversed at a Fibonacci confluence (61.8% ext. of the .9055-1.0378 advance and 61.8% retrace of the decline from 1.1875 to .9055). We have been expecting an important top to form. That top could be in place just above 1.08.”

AUD/USD

The AUDUSD may have completed and ending diagonal at .7799. If this count is correct, then the AUDUSD would probably return to .8750/.88 (we can't be sure about how long it would take since we do not know what kind of corrective pattern would unfold).

NZD/USD

A countertrend move back to the .7200 area or higher is probably underway. This level intersects with the underside of a former support line that was broken in August. Price should remain above .6553.

DailyFX

Disclaimer

Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.


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SNB Keeps Rate Unchanged, Forecasts Inflation at Peak

By Joshua Gallu

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Swiss central bank kept its main lending rate at a seven-year high today and forecast that inflation is now close to its peak.

The Swiss National Bank's Governing Board, led by Jean-Pierre Roth, kept the three-month Libor target at 2.75 percent for a fifth quarter, as expected by all 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

``The statement is a bit more dovish than expected,'' said Fabian Heller, an economist at Credit Suisse in Zurich. ``They've kept their options open. It's a wait-and-see approach.''

Financial-market fallout from the U.S. housing crisis has hammered banks' profits and is a drag on economic growth. The SNB joined central banks around the globe today to provide extra money to calm markets spooked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. At the same time, the 32 percent drop in the price of oil since mid-July may give the SNB room to lower borrowing costs this year without sparking inflation.

``Inflation should ease further next year because of the weakening of oil prices seen in recent months and the slowing of economic activity,'' the central bank said in statement today. ``Consequently, the current inflation is a temporary phenomenon.''

Inflation Peak

The SNB forecast that inflation will peak in the current quarter and decline from an average 2.7 percent this year to 1.9 percent next and 1.3 percent in 2010 if it keeps its key rate unchanged.

``Inflation is headed in the right direction, and once it's significantly lower there will be a window of opportunity to cut the target rate,'' said Janwillem Acket, chief economist at Bank Julius Baer in Zurich. ``There's no real pressure on the SNB to change rates at this point.''

The SNB has left its target interest rate unchanged since September 2007 after record defaults on U.S. home mortgages led to losses at the country's two biggest banks, UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group. The Swiss financial industry accounts for about 15 percent of the economy and contributed about 50 percent to growth in recent years.

Global stocks plummeted and bonds surged this week as traders sought the safest investments after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch was bought and American International Group Inc. was rescued by the Federal Reserve. UBS, the European bank hit hardest by the U.S. mortgage crisis, has already booked more than $43 billion in writedowns and had to raise almost $28 billion in fresh capital from investors.

Coordinated Action

The SNB joined with the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other central banks around the world to pump dollars into the financial system and head off a deepening crisis.

``The considerable uncertainty concerning the global economy and the impact of the international financial crisis are leading the SNB to take a cautious stance and keep its monetary policy unchanged,'' today's statement said.

With financial markets rattled and exports slowing, two of Switzerland's main economic engines are stalling. Export growth may slow to about 3 percent this year from about 10 percent in each of the two previous years, the government said in June.

``The SNB shouldn't ignore weak growth,'' said Jan Amrit Poser, chief economist at Bank Sarasin in Zurich. ``We need a rate cut as a cushion against this downturn. The SNB will either cut by the end of the year or not at all, because March may be the bottom of the cycle.''

The economy is still ``in line'' with the SNB's forecast for expansion between 1.5 percent and 2 percent this year, Roth said on Sept. 5. That forecast was reiterated today. The Swiss economy grew 0.4 percent in the second quarter even as the economies of neighboring France and Germany shrank.

`Getting Close'

``Europe is currently closer to recession than Switzerland is,'' Poser said. ``But if you look at the pace at which leading indicators are deteriorating, they're getting increasingly close to recession territory.''

Switzerland's leading economic indicators fell to the lowest level in five years in August and a measure of manufacturing growth slid to a three-year low. At the same time, price increases have eroded households' purchasing power and threaten consumption, the largest part of the economy.

Record prices for oil and food have triggered a surge in inflation worldwide, prompting central banks from Asia to North America to shelve plans to cut rates.

Roth said Aug. 26 in an interview with Finanz und Wirtschaft that he ``hopes'' inflation peaked this summer and that it would be ``absurd'' to use monetary policy to counter rising costs for oil and food. Inflation eased to 2.9 percent in August from 3.1 percent in July, the fastest pace in 15 years.

While the ECB raised its rate in July on concern excessive pay demands may entrench faster inflation, Switzerland faces limited risks of so-called second-round effects as the Swiss economy is ``flexible'' and wage negotiations are decentralized, Roth said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Gallu in Geneva at jgallu@bloomberg.net



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EU's Almunia Sees `More to Come' in Financial Crisis

By Ben Sills

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- European Union Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia said financial markets and the global economy will probably have to ride out further shocks before the financial crisis abates.

``There is more to come,'' Almunia said today in a speech in Madrid. ``This isn't the beginning of the end, it's just the end of the beginning.''

While ``nobody can rule out solvency problems in Europe given the systemic problems,'' Almunia said, ``central bankers are prepared.''

The yearlong credit squeeze has led in the past two weeks to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the U.S. government takeovers of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group Inc. The euro-area economy contracted in the second quarter for the first time since monetary union began almost a decade ago, buffeted by the financial-market turmoil as well as record-setting gains in the euro and oil prices.

``The degree of optimism has reduced in past six months,'' Almunia said in an earlier speech today.

He also said the European Central Bank has a ``clear awareness'' of the dangers inflation poses for the economy. ``To forget that the fundamental duty is price stability is to throw stones on our own roof,'' Almunia said, adding that ``inflation spirals only create less growth and more unemployment.''

``Inflation in August started to slow in the euro region,'' he said. ``We can expect that this deceleration won't just continue but will become more evident.''

And this ``will help avoid errors of the past with second- round effects,'' Almunia said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sills in Madrid at bsills@bloomberg.net



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Crisis Exposes Flaws in U.S. Economy, Tarnishes Image

By Rich Miller

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The rapid-fire rescues of financial firms may end up tarnishing America's free-market reputation as the moves expose defects in the U.S. economy, undermining its standing with foreign buyers of the dollar and U.S. Treasury securities.

The government's actions might add hundreds of billions to a budget deficit already expected to hit a record next year. The salvage operations, which include Tuesday's takeover of American International Group Inc., also raise questions about the U.S. commitment to a free-market economy that, until recently, was the envy of the world.

America's credit ``profile is now weaker because contingent risks have become actual risks to the U.S. government,'' said John Chambers, managing director of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor's in New York.

The result: Foreign investors may demand higher compensation for providing the money the U.S. government and economy depend on. That, in turn, could translate into lower living standards for Americans as borrowing costs are pushed higher and the dollar is pulled lower.

There's not much evidence that any of this is happening yet. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.4 percent yesterday from 3.9 percent two months earlier as investors sought refuge from the recent turmoil in financial markets. The U.S. currency, meanwhile, has strengthened to $1.43 per euro from $1.59 on July 17.

Hedge Against Losses

Yet in what may be a sign that the complacency won't last, the cost to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt rose to a record yesterday after the Federal Reserve's rescue of insurance giant AIG. Benchmark 10-year credit-default swaps on Treasuries increased 4 basis points to 30, more than double those on government debt sold by Austria, Finland or Sweden, according to BNP Paribas SA.

Until now, the U.S. has enjoyed a special status among investors, thanks to the size of its economy, the power of its military and the depth of its financial markets. The dollar supplanted the British pound as the world's reserve currency after World War II, enabling America to borrow freely from abroad and run up big trade deficits. All this fed the country's sense that the U.S. was exceptional, destined to be the global political and economic leader.

America can no longer take its privileged position for granted. It has already lost some of its diplomatic luster because of President George W. Bush's go-it-alone foreign policy and the invasion of Iraq.

Dollar's Rival

The successful introduction of the euro a decade ago has created a rival for the dollar as the world's main currency for trade and investment. The rapid growth of emerging markets, particularly China, has also undercut America's attractiveness to the world's financiers.

That's why the ongoing financial turmoil is so dangerous. The meltdown has created ``a crisis of confidence in the U.S. government,'' said Jim Leach, a former Republican U.S. congressman from Iowa who is now a professor at Princeton University in New Jersey. ``The twin pinions of American strength -- our politics and our finance -- are under the gun today.''

Estimates of the eventual price the U.S. government will have to pay to end the credit crisis vary widely, ranging as high as $2 trillion. Many are lower than that, at roughly a half-trillion dollars -- equal to about 4 percent of gross domestic product. Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard, wrote in the Financial Times today that the U.S. may have to spend between $1 trillion and $2 trillion.

Facing Liabilities

While such a bill would be more than twice what the U.S. paid in today's dollars to resolve the savings-and-loan crisis in the early 1990s, budget experts said it would be manageable to finance on its own. The trouble is, the federal government already faces liabilities in the tens of trillions of dollars as baby boomers retire and begin collecting Social Security and medical benefits.

Joshua Rosner, an analyst with research firm Graham Fisher & Co. in New York, said the costs are unclear partly because the Treasury is effectively keeping some of them off the government's balance sheet by parking them at the Fed. That's the same sort of practice that got Citigroup Inc. and other banks in trouble during the now year-old credit crisis.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues committed $29 billion to back the takeover of Bear Stearns Group by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in March. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson followed with a pledge this month of as much as $100 billion each for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure that the two mortgage companies continue supporting the battered housing market. The Fed then kicked in an additional $85 billion this week for AIG.

Reassure Investors

Harvey Pitt, chief executive officer of Kalorama Partners in Washington and former chairman of the Securities & Exchange Commission, argued the rescues would help reassure foreign investors that the U.S. isn't prepared to accept a free-fall in financial markets. The bailouts, unfortunately, also do something else: They highlight the fragility of the U.S. financial system.

``The foreigners are torn right now,'' said Mohammed El- Erian, co-chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. ``On the one hand, they are stunned by what is happening to the U.S. financial system. On the other, they are impressed that we are getting a policy response that is relatively fast.''

Sovereign-wealth funds invested just $900 million in new capital in U.S. and European financial institutions so far this quarter. That's down from $6.43 billion in the second quarter, $19.7 billion in the first and $28.5 billion in the final quarter of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

Increasing Uncertainty

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said that the haphazard nature of the bailouts may discourage investors from putting money in the U.S. because it increases uncertainty about who will survive and who will fail.

``We used to believe that America was a country or a government that was based on the rule of law,'' the Columbia University professor said in a Sept. 16 interview on Bloomberg Radio. ``Today, we appear to be a law of discretion. Who gets bailed out seems to be totally up to the discretion of Paulson, of Bernanke.''

William Poole, a senior economic adviser at Merk Investments LLC and former St. Louis Fed president, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday that the market system would be hurt by increased regulation in the wake of the rescues.

`Heavier Regulatory Hand'

``It is likely that we will see a much heavier regulatory hand that, in the end, is going to saddle lots of companies with unnecessary costs and damage our market system,'' said Poole, a Bloomberg News contributor.

Foreigners' appetite for investing in the U.S. may also be tempered by the impact of the crisis on the economy. Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics in New York, said the U.S. is in for an extended recession as the financial- services industry -- a major source of increased productivity growth in the past -- consolidates.

``The federal government assumes that it can borrow whatever it wants from foreign lenders at low interest rates for as long as it wants,'' said David Walker, former comptroller of the U.S. Government Accountability Office who's now head of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation in New York. ``That's an imprudent assumption.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Rich Miller in Washington at rmiller28@bloomberg.net





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Leading Indicators in U.S. Fell More Than Forecast

By Bob Willis

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell more than forecast in August, signaling the growth outlook dimmed even before the latest collapse in financial markets.

The Conference Board's gauge fell 0.5 percent after a 0.7 percent decline the prior month, the New York-based private research group said today. The index points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.

The three-year housing slump that triggered the credit- market meltdown, a loss of jobs and slowdown in spending may bring an end to the economic expansion. Plunging stock markets this month following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and federal takeover of American International Group Inc. reflect a breach of confidence that is likely to deepen the downturn.

``The Wall Street crunch has definitely rolled over into Main Street,'' said Lindsey Piegza, a market analyst at FTN Financial, which correctly forecast the decline. ``It's a very dismal picture all around.''

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly expanded in September as orders and shipments improved, a separate report showed. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index increased to 3.8 this month from minus 12.7 in August. Positive readings signal growth.

Fed Infusion

The Fed today almost quadrupled the amount of dollars central banks can auction around the world to $247 billion in a coordinated bid to ease the worst crisis facing financial markets since the 1920s.

The Fed increased the amount of dollars that the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other counterparts can offer from $67 billion ``to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.'' The Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank also participated.

Stocks held gains and Treasury securities remained lower following the reports. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 1.8 percent at 1,176.85 at 10:27 a.m. in New York, lifted by optimism the cash infusion from the central bank would ease financial strains.

The leading index was forecast to decline 0.2 percent, according to the median of 57 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 0.6 percent to a gain of 0.2 percent.

No `Cushion'

``The economy right now is so slow that it doesn't have much cushion for shocks,'' Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement. ``We may not see any signs of improvement until well into the second half of 2009.''

Six of the 10 indicators in today's report subtracted from the index, led by faster supplier deliveries to factories that signal fewer orders are coming in. A slump in building permits and a jump in first-time jobless claims also factored into the decline.

Earlier today, the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims last week rose 10,000 to 455,000, led by a jump in Louisiana reflecting job losses in the wake of Hurricane Gustav. While the Labor Department said claims would have fallen excluding the state, the overall trend in applications still points to deterioration in the labor market, economists said.

Spending to Stall

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of September anticipated the longest expansion in consumer spending on record will come to an end this quarter. Purchases will probably stall, according to the survey median, the weakest reading since the last three months of 1991.

The housing slump is deepening, threatening the financial system and leading to this week's government takeover of AIG and Lehman's bankruptcy.

Building permits, a sign of future construction, fell 8.9 percent in August, while work began on the fewest houses in 17 years, the Commerce Department reported yesterday.

The economy has lost 605,000 jobs so far this year and the jobless rate reached a five-year high of 6.1 percent in August.

More dismissals may be on the way. Chrysler LLC's Chief Executive Officer Bob Nardelli said the automaker may need to cut more jobs and trim other costs should U.S. lawmakers fail to approve $25 billion in loans to help the industry develop fuel- efficient vehicles.

Nardelli said he hadn't ``seen any signs'' of a U.S. economic recovery, during a Sept. 12 interview. ``It's critically important that we get this economy re-fired, that we get the energy back into this economy, that we get consumer confidence back,'' he said.

Stocks' Retreat

Higher stock prices in August prevented the leading index from dropping even more, an underpinning unlikely to be repeated this month, economists said. The Standard & Poor's 500 index averaged 1234.96 in the first 17 days of September, down from 1281.47 in August.

The index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, fell 0.1 percent after no change in July.

The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production, which, combined with gross domestic product, are the figures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine whether a recession has begun.

The gauge of lagging indicators increased 0.4 percent for a second month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net



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Philadelphia Fed Factory Index Rises Unexpectedly

By Shobhana Chandra

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly increased in September, the first expansion in 10 months, as orders and shipments improved and signs of inflation moderated.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index rose to 3.8 this month from minus 12.7 in August, the bank said today. Economists expected a drop. Positive readings signal expansion. The index averaged 5.1 last year.

Exports are helping some American factories counter softening demand in the U.S. Still, job losses, a housing recession and a credit crisis that sent Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy this week may limit any sustained gains in manufacturing output, economists said.

``Overwhelmingly exports are helping,'' said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland. ``Inventories are at relatively healthy levels and are no longer a weight on the factory sector.''

Economists expected the Philadelphia index to rise to minus 10, according to the median of 56 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from minus 5 to minus 15.

A Labor Department report today showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly rose last week, led by a jump in filings in Louisiana after Hurricane Gustav. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits increased by 10,000 to 455,000 in the week ended Sept. 13.

Leading Indicators

A Conference Board report today showed the index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell more than forecast in August, signaling the growth outlook dimmed even before the latest collapse in financial markets.

The Conference Board's gauge fell 0.5 percent after a 0.7 percent decline the prior month, the New York-based private research group said.

The Philadelphia Fed's index of new orders rose to 5.6 from minus 11.9. The shipments index increased to 2.6 from minus 3.3 a month earlier. The employment reading was little changed at minus 0.9 after minus 1.1.

The gauge of prices paid slowed to 31.5 after 57.5 the prior month, while an index of prices received declined to 15.5 from 27 in August.

The inventory measure worsened to minus 22.9 from minus 6.6. A negative number means stockpiles are shrinking.

Expectations for the next six months rose to 30.8 from 27.6.

The headline index isn't composed of the individual measures and some economists consider it a gauge of business sentiment.

Job Cuts

A report earlier this week from the New York Fed showed manufacturing in the region shrank in September, a sign companies are concerned about the collapse in credit markets and cooling consumer spending.

The regional surveys provide early clues to the health of manufacturing nationwide, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.

Industrial production fell in August by the most in almost three years, the Fed reported this week. Car output slumped 12 percent, the most in a decade, and declines ranged from semiconductors to building supplies.

Manufacturers are also reducing workers. Federal-Mogul Corp., a maker of automotive piston rings and spark plugs, will eliminate 4,000 jobs globally because of slowing vehicle sales.

``We are taking actions in response to a downturn in regional markets and global industry outlook,'' Chief Executive Officer Jose Maria Alapont said in a statement on Sept. 17.

Some firms are getting help from abroad. Quixote Corp., a maker of yellow highway crash cushions, expects full-year sales in China will triple, Chief Executive Officer Leslie Jezuit said this week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net



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BP's BTC Oil Pipe Continues Exports, Output Cut 60%

By Eduard Gismatullin and Alaric Nightingale

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, Europe's second-largest oil producer, said flows through its Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan crude pipeline are continuing after a gas leak cut output at Azeri fields 60 percent yesterday.

BP and partners are using crude accumulated at the Sangachal terminal at the beginning of the pipeline in Azerbaijan to maintain flows, Murat Lecompte, a BP spokesman, said by phone from Turkey today. There's also crude accumulated at Ceyhan.

BP shut two platforms at the Central and West Azeri fields in the Azerbaijan's part of the Caspian Sea after a gas leak yesterday. BP and partners produce an average of about 850,000 barrels a day from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli, or AGC, deposits, according to the London-based company.

``Tankers are being loaded from Ceyhan,'' Lecompte said. ``There's a production impact because ACG is producing at about 40 percent of its'' regular rate.

Lecompte declined to comment on when the lower output in Azerbaijan will affect exports.

``Three platforms are operating, two are still shut down,'' Tamam Bayatly, a BP spokeswoman in Baku, Azerbaijan, said by telephone today. ``We will investigate the cause of the gas and we will only restart the operation when we see that it's safe to do so.''

Bayatly declined to comment on when production will resume at the two platforms.

Azeri Crude

On Sept. 12, BP shut the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, or BTC, pipeline, which carries Azeri crude oil from Baku across Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean coast near Ceyhan, after a leak in the Turkish section required repairs.

The 1,100-mile link was shut down for about 20 days after an explosion on Aug. 5 in Turkey. The government said a malfunction was behind the accident and rejected a claim of responsibility from Kurdish guerrillas who said they bombed the pipeline.

BP still keeps the Baku-Supsa pipeline, which transports crude from Azerbaijan to Georgia's Black Sea coast closed because of security concerns, Bayatly said. Baku-Supsa shipments were halted on Aug. 12 because of Russia's offensive in Georgia.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eduard Gismatullin and Alaric Nightingale in London at egismatullin@bloomberg.net



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CenterPoint Restores Power to 858,000 Following Hurricane Ike

By Edward Klump

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- CenterPoint Energy Inc., Houston's electricity distributor, said it has restored power to about 858,000 homes and businesses since Hurricane Ike hit the Gulf Coast region last week.

About 1.29 million customers, or 57 percent of the Houston- based company's total of 2.26 million, still lack electricity, Alicia Dixon, a CenterPoint spokeswoman, said today in a telephone interview. Ike slammed into Texas on Sept. 13, knocking out power to much of the Houston area.

New Orleans-based Entergy Corp. said today that it had more than 273,000 customers without service in three states, including about 267,000 who lost power because of Ike. The company was still repairing lines damaged by Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana earlier this month when Ike struck.

To contact the reporter on this story: Edward Klump in Houston at eklump@bloomberg.net.



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Natural Gas Futures Drop After Report of U.S. Inventory Gain

By Bill Banker

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures fell after the Energy Department said U.S. stockpiles increased more than forecast last week.

Supplies rose 67 billion cubic feet in the week ended Sept. 12, the department said. Analysts expected an increase of 63 billion, based on the median of 23 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Natural gas for October delivery dropped 17.6 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $7.734 per million British thermal units at 10:37 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The futures were trading at $7.938 per million Btu before the report was released at 10:35 a.m. in Washington.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Banker in New York at bbanker@bloomberg.net.



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Texas Bars Ike Evacuees From Galveston, Area Unsafe

By Crayton Harrison and Brian K. Sullivan

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Texas officials barring evacuees from returning to Galveston five days after Hurricane Ike said the area remained unsafe as relief agencies struggled to provide food and water to thousands.

``I don't think it's a safe place to live,'' state Health Commissioner David Lakey told reporters yesterday. ``The capacity to take care of even moderate injuries, moderate illnesses, is not here at this time.''

Galveston authorities stopped residents returning to inspect their homes for storm damage, saying they couldn't cope with the influx. Those who rode out the hurricane face $2,000 fines if they breach the dawn-to-dusk curfew there.

The Bush administration, stung by criticism of its slow response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, vowed to get supplies into the Houston-Galveston area, where the storm downed electricity lines, cut off water and left 28,500 people in shelters. The hurricane killed at least 51 people in 11 states, the Associated Press reported.

Supplies of food, water and ice have been sent to every county, though some of those distribution points are still far from cities and towns, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said in an interview on Houston's KTRK-TV.

He said officials will look at setting up satellite locations to make sure supplies get to people who need them.

``I wish we could set one up immediately in everyone's backyard,'' Chertoff said.

Strategic Kicks Threatened

Yesterday, Chertoff, whose department oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency, promised to ``kick someone in the rear'' if necessary to ensure a smooth relief effort. ``Those whose butts need to be kicked will feel it in their butts,'' he said.

FEMA set up a trailer to process residents at Ball High School in Galveston at noon yesterday and almost immediately a line of 20 people formed. Ronald Lee Homrighaus, 56, was hoping for enough money to rent a hotel room for 30 days and find a new place to live after his home was destroyed by water he said rose as high as 16 feet (4.9 meters).

``FEMA's being better because of what happened in New Orleans,'' he said. ``They got caught with their pants down there.''

Stress Taking Toll

The lack of water and the destruction was taking its toll on Galveston residents, said Texas Air National Guard Colonel John Nichols. Dehydration, fatigue and stress were all seen among residents lining up for help.

The Salvation Army has served 300,000 meals since Ike struck and is now in position to serve 210,000 a day, according to Major Dan Ford with the assistance organization in Texas. It has mobile kitchens and canteens set up in Galveston.

People ``don't want to leave because everything they have is there but they can't survive on the island,'' he said.

Floods are receding and at least 90 percent of the state should be dry by today, Bob Smerbeck, a meteorologist with private forecaster AccuWeather.com, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Electricity has been restored to more than 1.5 million people, though about 1.3 million remain without power, CenterPoint Energy Inc. said today. About 70 percent of Houston should have electricity back by the end of the week, FEMA Administrator David Paulison said.

Rescue Operations Ending

Search and rescue operations, which saved more than 3,540 residents in coastal areas, are almost finished, according to Governor Rick Perry.

Refiners along the Gulf Coast are restoring operations after Ike caused about 20 percent of the nation's production capacity to shut.

Most refiners are waiting for power to be restored and for pipelines and ports to bring in crude oil. The Houston petroleum port, the largest in the U.S., partly opened to daylight transit by tankers, the Coast Guard said yesterday.

Oil companies, which shut most of their offshore Gulf production for the storm, were examining assets for damage and beginning to return workers to rigs and platforms.

To contact the reporters on this story: Crayton Harrison in Galveston at tharrison5@bloomberg.net; Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net.



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Russia Cuts Oil Export Tax to Free Up $5.5 Billion

By Lyubov Pronina and Greg Walters

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Russia plans to slash export duties on oil and refined products to free up $5.5 billion for companies after crude fell from a record, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said.

The government intends to reduce the tax on crude oil to $372 a metric ton from Oct. 1, Kudrin said at a meeting in the Kremlin today. The duty is currently $495.90 a ton and the Finance Ministry had said earlier this month it would be reduced by 2 percent from Oct. 1.

``This will compensate for a recent 25 percent decline in crude pricing,'' Renaissance Capital analysts including Alexei Moisseev and Maxim Raskosnov said in a note to investors. ``It will also help address the so-called Kudrin scissors problem, whereby oil companies are already operating in the lower oil price environment while the change in oil export tariffs has lagged.''

OAO Rosneft, the country's biggest producer, rose as much as 26 percent to $5.93 before falling back to $5.60 in London trading at 1:41 p.m. local time and OAO Lukoil, the second-biggest producer, advanced $4.20, or 7.9 percent, to $57.20. Moscow's stock exchanges will open tomorrow after being halted by the market regulator yesterday, Kudrin said.

Oil Products

Russia will cut the export tariff for light oil products to $263.10 a ton and for heavy products to $141.70 a ton, said Alexander Sakovich, deputy head of the Finance Ministry's customs department. The government normally revises the taxes every two months based on the previous two-month average price for the country's benchmark Urals export blend.

Urals crude peaked at $140.80 a barrel on July 3, and has fallen about 36 percent to $90.01 since then. Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as $2.84, or 2.9 percent, to $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today.

Lukoil will ask the government for additional relief by lowering fees to use state-run pipeline operator OAO Transneft and OAO Russian Railways, Interfax reported today, citing Chief Executive Officer Vagit Alekperov.

Russia's oil companies are losing money on crude production after a decline in prices pushed the market value of a barrel of Urals below the cost of getting the fuel to consumers and paying taxes, UBS AG said on Sept. 16. A company shipping crude from the Siberian city of Nizhnevartovsk would post an operating loss of $13 a barrel after costs and taxes are taken into account, UBS said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Walters in Moscow gwalters1@bloomberg.net



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Ahmadinejad Says Iran Will Press on With Atomic Work

By Ladane Nasseri

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran will pursue its nuclear program, defying demands to curb the work three days after the United Nations said the country isn't cooperating with a probe into possible weapons development.

``The nuclear issue is over,'' Ahmadinejad said today at a Tehran news conference broadcast live by state television. He dismissed the threat that the UN Security Council may impose further sanctions on Iran, saying, ``Pressure will not have an impact on the determination of the Iranian people'' to carry on with atomic research.

Iran has refused to answer questions about possible nuclear- weapons activity and expanded its production of atomic fuel, the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency said in a report published Sept. 15.

Iran's defiance increased tension between the Persian Gulf country and Western powers over the program, which the U.S. and some major allies say is cover for weapons development. The government in Tehran faces further isolation, the U.S. said following the IAEA report, while France said it will back moves for a fourth round of UN sanctions against the country.

The Security Council has repeatedly called on Iran to halt its enrichment of uranium, a process that can fuel a nuclear power station or form the core of a bomb.

Iran says its program is for civilian use, intended to generate electricity, and legal under the nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty, to which it is a signatory.

General Assembly

The State Department said Sept. 16 that U.S., U.K., French, Chinese, Russian and German diplomats will discuss the dispute tomorrow, ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York next week. Those countries' foreign ministers are scheduled to talk about possible further steps in the dispute at the Assembly. Ahmadinejad is due to attend the UN gathering.

China indicated Sept. 16 that it may not be prepared to back further sanctions, with Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu saying that negotiation was ``the only way'' to resolve the dispute.

Tension with the West over the war in Georgia has sharpened Russian opposition to pressuring Iran at the UN, U.S. and British envoys said last week. China and Russia are both veto-wielding, permanent members of the Security Council.

Russia and China are ``quite worried'' about the latest IAEA report criticizing Iran, the Associated Press cited European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana as saying today.

The report ``isn't good for Iran,'' Solana said, while he stopped short of saying that there is support for a push for more sanctions, AP said.

Solana, who said the General Assembly will ``analyze'' the situation, was speaking at a Paris meeting of EU foreign ministers with their counterparts from five central Asian nations.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ladane Nasseri in Tehran at lnasseri@bloomberg.net.



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EDF Said to Offer 774P/Share for British Energy

By Anne-Sylvaine Chassany and Francois de Beaupuy

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Electricite de France SA, Europe's biggest power producer, raised its offer for British Energy Group Plc to 774 pence a share, valuing the U.K. utility at 12.4 billion pounds ($22.6 billion), two people familiar with the matter said.

The sweetened offer is 9 pence a share more than the previous cash bid of 765 pence, and Paris-based EDF's board will meet on Sept. 22 to discuss it, said the people, who didn't want to be identified because the terms of the transaction have yet to be completed.

By taking over British Energy, EDF, which has 7.9 million customers in the U.K., would win control of eight British nuclear plant sites with potential for building new reactors. The U.K. government wants investment in new nuclear plants and is identifying sites for reactors.

``The price seems fair,'' Chicuong Dang, an analyst at Richelieu Finance in Paris, which has about $6.4 billion under management, including EDF shares. British Energy investors may have hoped for a higher offer a few months ago, before the markets for credit and energy prices deteriorated, he said.

EDF advanced as much as 2.62 euros, or 5.6 percent, to 49.75 euros a share in Paris trading, while British Energy rose as much as 37.5 pence, or 5.2 percent, to 753 pence in London.

EDF is ``making progress'' in the talks and news of a possible deal may be known early next week, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said today in a Bloomberg News interview. Lagarde said the government, which owns 85 percent of EDF, backs the company's plans to expand in the U.K.

Offer Details

Andrew Dowler, a spokesman for British Energy, declined to comment on the latest negotiations, as did EDF spokesman Francois Molho.

East Kilbride, Scotland-based British Energy, of which the U.K. government owns 36 percent, rejected an offer on July 31 from EDF at 765 pence a share. British Energy's biggest private shareholders said the bid undervalued its eight nuclear stations and adjacent land where more reactors may be built.

British Energy's land is attractive to EDF, which has plans for at least four new U.K. reactors from 2017. U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown supports the expansion of nuclear power to replace older plants and cut carbon-dioxide emissions, and the sale of British Energy to EDF to accomplish that goal.

Currently, terms being completed between the parties include documentation for a possible New York listing of Contingent Value Rights, or CVRs, which give shareholders a slice of future profits, one of the people said.

The bid will offer British Energy shareholders a choice between an all-cash option or a cash-and-CVR one.

The price is ``much too high,'' the energy branch of the Confederation Francaise du Travail union representing EDF employees said in a statement today, adding that the value of British Energy is hard to estimate.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in Paris achassany@bloomberg.net



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Buffett's MidAmerican Energy to Buy Constellation

By Jim Polson

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett's MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. agreed to buy Constellation Energy Group Inc. for about $4.7 billion, snapping up the largest U.S. power marketer at less than half its market value prior to this week.

The cash deal is worth $26.50 a share, the companies said today in a statement. That's 7 percent higher than yesterday's close. The stock plunged 58 percent this week on concern turmoil in financial markets would wreck Constellation's energy-trading business.

``That's a big haircut,'' said James Halloran, who helps manage $34 billion in assets, including Constellation shares, at National City Private Client Group in Cleveland. ``The assets are valuable.''

Constellation hired Morgan Stanley and UBS AG to explore strategic alternatives as its shares plunged this week. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy, the sale of Merrill Lynch & Co. and the government takeover of American International Group Inc. heightened investor concern over Baltimore-based Constellation's ``undercapitalized'' trading business, according to analyst Paul Fremont of Jefferies & Co. in New York.

MidAmerican, based in Des Moines, Iowa, and Constellation expect to complete a definitive merger agreement later today, the companies said. Once that's done, Constellation will issue $1 billion in preferred equity yielding 8 percent to MidAmerican, according to the statement.

Capital Needed

Constellation Chief Executive Officer Mayo Shattuck had been seeking a partner to share the risk in the company's wholesale energy-trading business. Shattuck, 53, told investors at a meeting last month that Constellation would sell natural- gas production assets to raise as much as $1 billion, thereby improving its ability to post collateral in its trading business.

Electricite de France SA, Constellation's top shareholder, was considering buying a larger stake or the whole company, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. The Paris-based power producer, which is controlled by the French government, missed out on the deal, a person familiar with the matter said prior to the announcement of the takeover by MidAmerican.

Florida's FPL Group Inc. agreed to buy Constellation, also owner of Baltimore's electric utility, for $12.4 billion in 2005. Maryland lawmakers scuttled that deal.

``Constellation has been backed into a corner and Shattuck may be willing to give up more to Maryland utility regulators to get a deal done,'' said Greg Phelps, who oversees $3.5 billion at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston.

Receptive to Sale

State regulators and lawmakers also may be more receptive to the sale to MidAmerican, said Michael Worms, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

``Given all the concerns about Constellation's non- regulated businesses now, I'd think the regulators may be a bit more accommodative than they were back then,'' Worms said.

Shattuck became Constellation's CEO in September 2001 after 16 years at Deutsche Bank Alex Brown, departing as head of the brokerage unit and North American private banking.

Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway Inc. by investing in out- of-favor securities and buying businesses whose prospects and management he deemed superior. He disclosed a 1.4 percent stake in U.S. power producer NRG Energy Inc. in a regulatory filing last month.

Earnings from Berkshire's energy and utilities unit were $208 million in the second quarter, a decline of 10 percent from a year earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jim Polson in New York at jpolson@bloomberg.net.



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Russia Builds Ties in Latin America to Challenge U.S.

By Henry Meyer

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Russia is in talks to build a space center in Cuba as it forges closer ties with Latin American countries opposed to the U.S. in the wake of Cold War-era tensions sparked by the Georgia conflict.

The head of the Russian Federal Space Agency, or Roscosmos, Anatoly Perminov, who visited Havana with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin earlier this week, made the announcement in a statement posted today on the agency's Web Site.

After Cuba, Sechin traveled to Venezuela, whose President Hugo Chavez heads to Moscow next week, and Nicaragua. Russia is playing its most active role in the region since the Soviet era, in a challenge to the U.S. in its traditional backyard.

``We're increasing our presence in Latin America -- the countries in the region themselves want this,'' said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Igor Lyakin-Frolov. ``There's a big power in the north. They need a counterweight,'' he said by telephone from Moscow today, referring to the U.S.

Russia has sold billions of dollars of weapons to oil-rich Venezuela in recent years. Since the August war with U.S.-backed Georgia provoked a rift with the West, Russia has stepped up efforts to bolster its influence in Latin America.

``The worse Russia's ties with the West become, the more it will look for allies elsewhere,'' said Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the USA and Canada Institute in Moscow. ``Russia can play the role of a great power; it can sell oil, weapons and nuclear technology.''

Ties With Nicaragua

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, whose revolutionary Sandinista government was supported by military aid from the Soviet Union in the 1980s, said yesterday after talks with Sechin that he planned to strengthen ties with Russia. Sechin said Russia will study plans to fund energy projects and boost trade. Nicaragua was the only country to follow Russia in recognizing the independence of Georgia's two breakaway regions.

Bolivia, South America's poorest country, will turn to Russia to replace U.S. funding for its anti-drugs program, the Bolivian government said yesterday.

Bolivia will send representatives to Russia to wrap up an agreement to provide it with helicopters, logistical support and military training to help the fight against drug trafficking, La Razon reported today, citing Felipe Caceres, Bolivia's vice minister of social defense.

Strained Ties

Relations between the U.S. and Bolivia have soured in the past week after President Evo Morales expelled the U.S. ambassador for allegedly helping foment violence in the opposition stronghold of eastern Bolivia.

Russia's Foreign Ministry yesterday criticized what it termed efforts to undercut Bolivia's territorial integrity and ``all forms of outside interference in the affairs of this sovereign Latin American nation.''

Morales, Ortega and Chavez are close allies who oppose the historic U.S. influence in Latin America. By courting Russia, ``Latin American states can demonstrate to the U.S. that if it doesn't treat them with respect, they have other countries they can turn to,'' Kremenyuk said.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will be in Peru in late November for the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group and plans a weeklong regional trip, his office said today.

Sechin's visit to Cuba followed one he made in July to the Cold War-era ally. Russian newspaper reports of plans to station nuclear bombers on the Caribbean island prompted warnings from the U.S. not to cross ``a red line'' and were later denied by Russia.

U.S. Missile System

Russia opposes proposed U.S. missile defense bases in Poland and the Czech Republic, former Communist-era satellites. It's also resisting further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization into the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine, accusing the U.S. of threatening its security by moving militarily up to Russia's borders.

Chavez last week welcomed two Russian TU 160 bombers, which flew from Venezuela to conduct training flights over neutral waters. Venezuela is planning a joint naval exercise in the Caribbean later this year with Russian warships, including the atomic-powered Peter the Great cruiser.

The Venezuelan leader will be in Moscow for the second time in two months next week. Three Russian oil companies signed exploration deals for Venezuela during Chavez's last visit to Russia in July.

Russia is currently in talks to sell air defense systems, armored personnel carriers and new-generation Su-35 fighter jets to Venezuela, the Kommersant newspaper reported, citing state industrial holding company Russian Technologies chief Sergei Chemezov.

To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Moscow at Hmeyer4@bloomberg.net



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South Africa's Rand Gains on Central Bank Plan to Calm Markets

By Garth Theunissen

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's rand advanced against the dollar as stocks around the world recovered after central banks agreed to pump $180 billion into financial markets to avert a widening international credit crisis.

The rand snapped a three-day drop after the U.S. Federal Reserve almost quadrupled the amount of dollars that central banks around the world can auction in a coordinated plan to ease the worst financial crisis since the 1920's. South Africa's currency also gained after the price of gold, which accounts for 7 percent of the nation's export earnings, climbed for a second day as investors sought a haven from financial market turmoil.

``The news that central banks are going to inject liquidity into financial markets has calmed investors,'' said John Cairns, head of foreign-exchange research at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg. ``That's giving traders more confidence to move back into riskier assets.''

The rand gained as much as 1.3 percent to 8.1575 per dollar and was at 8.1658 by 12:42 p.m. in Johannesburg, from 8.2650 yesterday. It rose versus 14 of the 16 major currencies monitored by Bloomberg, adding 0.7 percent against the euro to 11.7622.

The Fed increased the amount of dollars that European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and other counterparts can offer to $247 billion from $67 billion ``to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.'' The Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank also participated in the plan which allows the Fed to spread dollars around the world via swap lines with other central banks who can then auction them in their own markets.

Stocks Advance

European stocks and U.S. index futures climbed while Asian shares pared declines after the plan was announced. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index climbed as much as 1.2 percent in London while futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 1.2 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 1.6 percent, paring an earlier drop of as much as 4.3 percent.

South Africa's currency also strengthened as gold gained as much as 3.4 percent to $892.93 an ounce after jumping more than 11 percent yesterday in the wake of the U.S. government's takeover of American International Group Inc. About $3.6 trillion of market value has been erased from global stocks this week as financial market turmoil intensified with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., prompting investors to switch funds into safe-haven assets.

``The dollar has lost ground and that has helped gold extend its recovery, particularly as investors flee to safer assets,'' said George Glynos, managing director in Johannesburg at Econometrix Treasury Management, which advises clients on bond and foreign-exchange transactions. ``Higher precious metal prices are certainly a help for the rand in an environment of severe market turmoil.''

South Africa produces about 10 percent of the world's gold, often causing the nation's currency to move in tandem with the price of the metal.

Government bonds gained with the yield on the benchmark 13.5 percent security due September 2015 losing 2 basis points to 9.05 percent. The yield on the 13 percent note maturing in August 2010 dropped 4 basis points to 9.74 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

To contact the reporter on this story: Garth Theunissen in Johannesburg gtheunissen@bloomberg.net



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Money-Market Rate Slides After Central Bank Action

By Gavin Finch and Kim-Mai Cutler

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in dollars overnight tumbled after central banks worldwide pumped $247 billion into money markets.

The three-month rate rose for a third day, to the highest since January, signaling that banks are still wary of more failures among financial institutions after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed and the U.S. government took control of American International Group Inc.

``The only thing you can say about today's intervention is that the overnight rate is now better,'' said Jan Misch, a money-market trader in Stuttgart at Landesbank Baden- Wuerttemberg, Germany's biggest state-owned bank. ``There's still a complete lack of confidence in the market though. There is enough cash out there, it's just not being lent out because people have lost faith in each other.''

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan joined with counterparts in Switzerland, the U.K. and Canada to inject cash into the money markets in a coordinated bid to ease the worst financial-market crisis since the 1920s.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for overnight loans fell 1.19 percentage points to 3.84 percent today, according to the British Bankers' Association. It dropped 1.41 percentage points yesterday after jumping 3.33 points the day before. The three-month rate, which rose yesterday the most since 1999, climbed a further 14 basis points to 3.20 percent today, according to BBA data.

Working Together

The Fed said on its Web site that it authorized other central banks to auction the dollar funds to financial institutions. A joint release said that the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank also participated. The ECB, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank allotted a combined $64 billion for one day today.

``The action is designed to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets,'' the central banks said in the statement. ``The central banks continue to work together closely and will take appropriate steps to address the ongoing pressures.''

The world's biggest financial institutions posted almost $520 billion in subprime-related losses and writedowns since the start of last year. Eleven U.S. banks collapsed since January. Corporate bond sales in the U.S. and Europe slumped 42 percent from a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Widening Spreads

The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, widened 8 basis points to 310 basis points today. That's higher than the 300 basis-point spread reached Oct. 20, 1987, when stocks collapsed around the world on what became known as Black Monday.

``The demand for liquidity has soared and has pushed banks to hoard cash,'' said Eoin O'Callaghan, a London-based economist for BNP Paribas SA. ``Market-based liquidity has dried up.''

The difference between the Libor for three-month dollar loans and the overnight indexed swap rate, the Libor-OIS spread that measures the availability of funds in the market, widened 12 basis points to 147 basis points today, the most since at least December 2001, adding to yesterday's 22 basis-point increase. The spread averaged 8 basis points in the 12 months to July 31, 2007, before the credit squeeze started.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net; Kim-Mai Cutler in London at kcutler@bloomberg.net



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Swiss Franc Holds Near Two-Week High as SNB Keeps Rates on Hold

By Lukanyo Mnyanda

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Swiss franc held near the highest level in more than two weeks against the dollar as central bank policy makers kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth quarter to contain inflation.

The franc climbed for a second day, extending its gains in the past week to 3.5 percent. The Swiss National Bank, led by Jean-Pierre Roth, held its three-month Libor target at a seven- year high of 2.75 percent, as forecast by all 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The franc stayed higher after major central banks including the SNB agreed to pump money into financial markets to restore confidence.

``Rates in Switzerland remain quite high by historical standards and we might also see a stronger franc if risk aversion remains high,'' said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-biggest lender. ``After all the bad news, everyone is waiting for some relief.''

Against the dollar, the franc rose as much as 1 percent to 1.0916, the strongest level since Aug. 27, and was at 1.1015 by 4:02 p.m. in Zurich. It snapped a three-day gain versus the euro, slipping 0.4 percent to 1.5864.

Policy makers have left borrowing costs unchanged since September 2007 after record defaults on U.S. home mortgages led to losses at the country's two biggest banks, UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group, and threatened economic expansion. The Swiss financial industry makes up about 15 percent of the economy.

Inflation Fight

Switzerland's central bank is trying to push inflation below its 2 percent limit. Annual price growth eased to 2.9 percent in August, from a 15-year high of 3.1 percent the month before.

Earlier, the franc pared gains after the Federal Reserve authorized other central banks, including the SNB, to auction $247 billion in dollar funds to financial institutions. The action is ``designed to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets,'' the central banks said.

Declining financial-market confidence encouraged investors to seek safer alternatives to carry trades, in which they borrow in a currency at a low interest rate and convert the proceeds into an asset they can lend out for a higher return. They take the risk currency fluctuations will erode their profits.

The so-called TED spread, a measure of banks' willingness to lend to each other, widened 8 basis points to 310 basis points today, after earlier surging to 314 basis points. That's higher than the 300-basis-point spread reached Oct. 20, 1987, when stocks collapsed around the world on what became known as Black Monday.

Swiss government bonds rose, with the yield on the 3 percent note due January 2018 falling 1 basis point to 2.68 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at lmnyanda@bloomberg.net



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Central Banks Offer Extra Funds to Calm Money Markets

By John Fraher and Simon Kennedy

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve almost quadrupled the amount of dollars central banks can auction around the world to $247 billion in a coordinated bid to ease the worst crisis facing financial markets since the 1920s.

The Fed increased the amount of dollars that the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other counterparts can offer from $67 billion ``to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.'' The Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank also participated.

Policy makers have struggled to revive confidence in markets this week as investors stockpiled money on concern more financial institutions would fail after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the U.S. government bailout of American International Group Inc. The cost to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt climbed to a record yesterday.

``There's a complete lack of faith in the markets,'' said Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. ``There's a lot of cash hoarding and people losing trust in banks, so the central banks are acting to relieve that. This might not be the last time they have to act.''

Markets welcomed the announcement, which was made in statements from each central bank at 9 a.m. Frankfurt time at the start of European trading. The cost of borrowing dollars overnight slid to 3.84 percent from 5.03 percent yesterday. It was 2.15 percent last week and reached the highest since 2001 on Sept. 15.

Limit Doubled

The Fed, which is adding $50 billion into its own banking system today, will spray dollars around the world via swap lines with other central banks. They can then auction them in their own markets. The ECB, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank allotted a total of $64 billion for one day today.

``The timing, so early in the trading day, shows both the severity of the strains in the interbank market and as well the authorities' determination to resuscitate orderly functioning of the money markets,'' said Julian Callow, head of European economics at Barclays Capital in London.

Under the new arrangements, the ECB doubled the limit of dollars it can get from the Fed to $110 billion and Switzerland's central bank can offer $27 billion, an extra $15 billion. New swap facilities with the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada amount to $60 billion, $40 billion and $10 billion, respectively. The arrangements are authorized until Jan. 30.

Use as Necessary

The ECB said it would offer $40 billion ``for as long as needed'' in overnight funds to the region's banks. It will also increase by $5 billion the amount it lends for 28 days and 84 days to $25 billion and $15 billion. The Swiss National Bank will boost its 28-day auctions to $8 billion and the 84-day offering to $9 billion. Both were previously $6 billion.

The Bank of Canada said it has decided not to draw on its $10 billion swap facility at this time. The Bank of Japan, whose policy board held an emergency meeting today, said it will use its $60 billion as required by market conditions.

In auctions of their own currencies, the ECB today lent 25 billion euros in one-day money and the Bank of England 66.2 billion pounds in one-week loans.

The joint action is the latest attempt by central bankers to avert the financial crisis which deepened this week after Lehman and AIG tumbled and Merrill Lynch & Co. was sold. The crisis began over a year ago after the U.S. housing market imploded and has pushed the world economy to the brink of recession.

Asian Action

As markets seized up this week, central bankers pushed more than $200 billion into markets with those in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia doing so again today.

Wall Street's woes have gone global, forcing the U.K. government to sponsor a rescue of mortgage lender HBOS Plc and Russia to pour money into its banks. Russia's government said today it would invest in the country's stock market when it reopens tomorrow. The official Xinhua News Agency said China will buy equity stakes in state-owned banks to stabilize its market.

Swap lines were first established in December when officials joined forces to boost dollar liquidity around the world after interest-rate reductions in the U.S., the U.K. and Canada failed to ease concerns about bank lending. The Fed increased its link with the ECB in July.

The announcement today boosted European shares and U.S. futures, which have been pummeled this week as contagion spread through financial markets. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in December added 15, or 1.3 percent, to 1,177.9 as of 11:22 a.m. in London. More than $19 trillion has been wiped off the value of global stock markets since Oct. 31.

More May Be Needed

Failure to calm markets will see central banks inject even more cash, said Robert Barrie, an economist at Credit Suisse Group in London. Other options central banks could take include accepting greater collateral denominated in foreign currencies and increasing lending to banks abroad.

``The lack of dollars has been making the financial crisis worse around the world, which is why we now have this coordinated response,'' Barrie said.

Since the credit squeeze began in August 2007, central banks have sought to keep apart the need to soothe markets and to combat inflation. They argue that interest rates are a blunt tool for helping markets and that price pressures prevent them from cutting rates. While the Fed slashed its key lending rate to 2 percent, the central bank has left it there since April. The Bank of Japan kept its key rate at 0.5 percent this week and the European Central Bank increased its benchmark to a seven-year high in July.

If the spasms in the markets continue and threaten to derail growth central bankers may shift, although for now they will want to wait, said Kevin Gaynor, head of economics at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London.

``Partly this is to keep powder dry and partly because cutting interest rates won't make much difference,'' he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: John Fraher in London at jfraher@bloomberg.net; Simon Kennedy in Paris at Skennedy4@bloomberg.net





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Brazil's Real Strengthens, Erasing an Earlier Loss, on Stocks

By Adriana Brasileiro

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real gained, erasing an earlier loss, as European and U.S. stocks increased.

The currency rose 0.7 percent to 1.8769 per dollar at 9:44 a.m. New York time, from 1.8892 yesterday. The real earlier declined as much as 0.8 percent to 1.9040.

The yield on Brazil's zero-coupon bonds due in January 2010 rose 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 15.08 percent, according to Banco Votorantim. Yesterday the yield jumped 22 basis points. The yield on the overnight futures contract for January delivery rose 2 basis points to 14.06 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adriana Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro at abrasileiro@bloomberg.net



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Canadian Dollar Rises, Central Banks Support Markets, Oil Gains

By Daniel Kruger

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar gained as commodities including crude oil rose after the world's biggest central banks said they will act jointly to revive the financial markets, increasing confidence in global economic growth.

Canada's dollar strengthened along with other currencies that benefit from demand for natural resources, including the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone, as oil rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since Sept. 15 and gold climbed to a six-week high.

``It's going to be the financial market and commodities that do the driving,'' said Eric Lascelles, a strategist at TD Securities in Toronto. ``There may be some more upside in the Canadian dollar.''

Canada's dollar, dubbed the loonie because of the aquatic bird on the one-dollar coin, advanced 1.1 percent to C$1.0612 per U.S. dollar at 8:20 a.m. in Toronto, from C$1.0731 yesterday. One Canadian dollar buys 94.22 U.S. cents.

The Fed said in a statement on its Web site it authorized other central banks to auction $180 billion in dollar funds to financial institutions. The European Central Bank will offer up to $40 billion for one day today and increase the amount of dollars provided to European banks in existing longer-term auctions, it said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net



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Dollar Falls Versus Euro as Central Banks Announce Joint Action

By Ye Xie and Bo Nielsen

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar touched a two-week low versus the euro after the world's biggest central banks said they will act to revive financial markets, reducing demand for the greenback as a haven.

The yen dropped versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars as the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank joined global counterparts to reverse the seizure in credit markets, reviving demand for higher-yielding assets. The dollar remained lower versus the euro as oil rose and U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased.

``We're seeing reassertion of the weakness feature in the dollar as we get some breathing room,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``There are really two forces running against each other, repatriation flows and weak economic fundamentals in the U.S.''

The dollar dropped 0.3 percent to $1.4373 per euro at 10:10 a.m. in New York, from $1.4326 yesterday. It reached $1.4509, the weakest since Sept. 4. The yen depreciated 1 percent to 151.32 per euro, from 149.88. The dollar increased 0.6 percent to 105.27 yen, from 104.66 yesterday.

The Fed said in a statement on its Web site it authorized other central banks to auction $180 billion in dollar funds to financial institutions. The ECB will offer up to $40 billion for one day today and increase the amount of dollars provided to European banks in existing longer-term auctions, it said.

Treasury Demand

The dollar decreased 0.9 percent to 8.1870 rand and 0.6 percent to 6.6738 Swedish krona as investor demand for U.S. government debt waned. The yield on the two-year Treasury note rose 0.09 percentage point to 1.73 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 1.3 percent.

The U.S. currency remained lower versus the euro as crude oil for October delivery advanced 4.3 percent to $101.38 a barrel and first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose last week. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil had a correlation of 0.8 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations. A reading of 1 would mean they have moved in lockstep.

The yen weakened on speculation the central banks' action will lead investors to resume carry trades that take advantage of interest-rate differentials. Japan's currency fell 2.5 percent to 70.87 per New Zealand dollar and 2.2 percent to 84.54 against the Australian dollar.

`Risk Appetite'

``We're seeing a modest rebound in risk appetite,'' said Adam Cole, head of global currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London. The intervention ``signals that they will do what they can to help us through this situation,'' he said.

Japan's 0.5 percent target lending rate compares with 4.25 percent in Europe, 7 percent in Australia and 7.5 percent in New Zealand. The Swiss National Bank held its benchmark rate at 2.75 percent today, matching the forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The yen jumped 3 percent against the dollar on Sept. 15, the most in a decade, as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for the biggest bankruptcy in history, sparking a global stock- market rout. The U.S. government's $85 billion rescue of American International Group Inc. failed to calm investors.

``Intervention by central banks helps to reduce risk aversion and will weaken the yen in a knee-jerk reaction,'' said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in London. ``But we still believe it will take more to turn this market around and are bullish on the yen.''

Overnight Libor

The overnight London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollars dropped 1.19 percentage points to 3.84 percent today, according to the British Bankers' Association. It reached 6.44 percent on Sept. 16, the highest since 2001.

Asian central banks are giving up efforts to stop their currencies from falling, allowing faster depreciation, as investors sell assets in those markets, according to HSBC Holdings Plc estimates and data compiled by Bloomberg. That's a change from two months ago, when the Bank of Korea sold a record $20.9 billion and the Reserve Bank of India's foreign-exchange reserves fell by $7.9 billion, London-based HSBC said.

The South Korean won has lost 3.3 percent against the dollar this month, while the Indian rupee is down 5.3 percent.

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits increased to 455,000 in the week ended Sept. 13, from 445,000 in the previous week, the Labor Department said today. The median forecast of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a drop to 440,000.

The Conference Board's gauge fell 0.5 percent after a 0.7 percent decline the prior month, the New York-based private research group said today. The index points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months. The Philadelphia's Fed factory index increased to 3.8 this month, from minus 12.7 in August.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net; Bo Nielsen in Copenhagen at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net



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