Asian Stocks Gain This Week as Economy, Profit Concerns Ease

By Chua Kong Ho and Shani Raja

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose this week, snapping a four-week losing streak, after the U.S. economy grew faster than estimated and commodity producers reported higher profits.

Toyota Motor Corp., which gets more than a third of its sales from North America, and Honda Motor Co. advanced more than 3 percent after the U.S. economy grew an annualized 3.3 percent in the second quarter, more than economists expected. Cnooc, China's largest offshore oil explorer, climbed 13 percent while Woodside Petroleum Ltd. advanced 11 percent after they both posted earnings that beat analyst estimates.

``The U.S. economy just refuses to roll over, despite the most dire predictions,'' said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage the equivalent of about $1.8 billion at Platypus Asset Management in Sydney. ``Such a strong performance from the world's largest economy is a big positive.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 3 percent to 125.30, the first weekly gain since five days ended July 25. All 10 industry groups advanced this week.

The measure has dropped 21 percent this year as soaring fuel prices damped consumer spending and eroded corporate profits, while writedowns and credit losses at the world's largest financial companies topped $500 billion.

Japan's Nikkei 200 Stock Average had the biggest weekly advance since July 25, gaining 3.2 percent. Benchmark indexes rose in most other Asian markets.

U.S. Economy

Toyota Motor gained 3.4 percent to 4,930 yen, while rival Honda, which depends on North America for more than half of its sales, climbed 4.1 percent to 3,580 yen. Nintendo Co. soared 5.3 percent to 518,000 yen after raising its full-year profit forecast by 26 percent, citing a weaker yen and sales of its DS and Wii players.

The U.S. government's initial estimate of economic growth was 1.9 percent last month and economists in a Bloomberg survey on average projected 2.7 percent. The data follows an unexpected advance in durable goods orders that helped boost U.S. stocks this week. Japan's factory output increased 0.9 percent in July from the previous month, beating the median estimate for a 0.3 percent decline in a Bloomberg survey.

Cnooc surged 13 percent to HK$12.06, after the Hong Kong- listed oil explorer said first-half profit jumped 89 percent to a record 27.54 billion yuan ($4 billion). That topped the median profit estimate of 22.1 billion yuan in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Australia's Woodside, the country's second-largest oil and gas explorer, rallied 11 percent to A$63.05, as profit for the first six months climbed to A$1.02 billion, higher than the A$939.3 million median analyst forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

`Solid Results'

Sinofert Holdings Ltd., China's largest fertilizer importer, surged 23 percent to HK$5.11, the biggest weekly gain since January 2004. First-half profit more than doubled to 1.24 billion yuan ($181 million) as record food prices spurred farmers to increase plantings and helped it raise product prices, the Beijing-based company said Aug. 28.

``We're positive on commodities companies in the longer term as emerging-market usage of raw materials continues to grow,'' said Michael Foo, Singapore-based head of Asian portfolio management at Clariden Leu AG, which manages the equivalent of $126 billion in assets globally.

Cosco Pacific Ltd., Asia's third-largest container terminal operator, jumped 17 percent to HK$11.96, after boosting its first-half profit by 11 percent, as China's exports of toys, furniture and clothes drove sea-cargo traffic.

To contact the reporter for this story: Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at kchua6@bloomberg.net; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net



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Asian Currencies Decline in Month as Funds Dump Local Assets

By Aaron Pan and Kim Kyoungwha

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies declined this month, led by South Korea's won, as overseas funds dumped stocks on concern that slowing global growth will damp demand for Asian exports just as central banks grapple with quickening inflation.

The won posted its biggest monthly decline since August 1998, Malaysia's ringgit had its worst month since the end of a dollar link in 2005 and Taiwan's dollar posted its biggest loss in seven years. Weakening currencies threaten to push up the cost of imports and accelerate inflation while decreasing demand for exports puts pressure on trade and current-account balances.

``It's been a bad environment for stocks with persistent inflation eroding the value of assets and people have been disappointed with the growth numbers coming out of the region,'' said Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. ``With that comes a fading of confidence in currencies in the region as well.''

South Korea's currency dropped 0.7 percent to 1,089 against the dollar as of the 3 p.m. local close yesterday, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd., taking the decline in August to 7.1 percent, Asia's worst performer. The ringgit, the second-biggest loser in the region, fell 4.1 percent this month and Taiwan's dollar 2.6 percent.

Overseas investors sold more stocks than they bought this month in Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Taiwan and Indonesia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Global funds were so- called net sellers of Korean shares yesterday for a ninth day, stock exchange data showed.

Korea Intervention

Korea's central bank said yesterday that the current- account balance returned to a deficit in July as a weaker currency and rising oil prices increased the import bill. Policy makers have intervened in the market to curb losses in the currency, depleting the nation's foreign-exchange reserves.

Attempts by officials to halt the won's slide failed to keep the currency from reaching its lowest since 2004, said Kim Sung Soon, a dealer at Industrial Bank of Korea in Seoul.

``Demand for the dollar from foreign stock sales and importers is still high,'' Kim said. ``The market is on the lookout for the government's intervention.''

Central banks intervene in the currency market by buying or selling foreign exchange.

Malaysia's ringgit fell to near the lowest in 11 months on speculation heightened political turmoil will prompt investors to sell the country's stocks.

Malaysia Politics

The currency declined this week, extending a monthly slump. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index of shares dropped 6.2 percent in August for a fourth month of losses. Malaysia doesn't reveal numbers on stocks transactions by foreigners.

The ringgit traded at 3.3935 per dollar versus 3.3400 a week ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 3.3975 on Aug. 27, the weakest since October.

Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was sworn in as a lawmaker on Aug. 28 after winning a by-election on Aug. 26. He has said defections from ruling lawmakers will unseat Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's government by Sept. 16.

Second Finance Minister Nor Mohamed Yakcop said on Aug. 4 the government won't achieve its target of narrowing its fiscal deficit to 3.2 percent of gross domestic product.

``There are crosswinds in the ringgit market because the political risks could turn for the worse in September,'' said Goh Puay Yeong, a currency strategist at Barclays Capital Plc in Singapore. ``Sentiment is weak and economic policies could come to a standstill'' amid a power struggle, he said.

Thai Protests

Thailand's baht dropped, posting a sixth month of losses. The currency fell as oil climbed for a second week and protesters led by opposition leaders occupied the office of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej in Bangkok to force his resignation.

A government report yesterday showed the nation posted a current-account deficit in July. Inflation accelerated to 9.2 percent last month, the fastest pace since 1998.

The baht fell 0.5 percent yesterday to 34.20, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency has declined 2.1 percent in August, reaching 34.29 on Aug. 26, the lowest since September 2007.

Taiwan's dollar fell on concern that cooling demand in the U.S. and Europe will hurt the island's exports, which account for half of the gross domestic product. The government cut its economic growth forecast and reported the smallest increase in export orders in five years.

The Taiwan dollar declined 0.1 percent to NT$31.520 per U.S. dollar yesterday, according to Taipei Forex Inc. The currency, which touched a six-month low of NT$31.571 on Aug. 26, has dropped 0.5 percent this week and 2.6 percent since the end of July.

Elsewhere, Singapore's dollar lost 3.4 percent this month, and Indonesia's rupiah dropped 0.6 percent. The Philippine peso declined 3.8 percent. Vietnam's dong gained 1.4 percent in August.

To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at apan8@bloomberg.net; Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net.



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Closing Market Recap: Soft GDP Figures Increase Hopes of Bank of Canada Rate Cut

Closing Market Recap: Soft GDP Figures Increase Hopes of Bank of Canada Rate Cut
30 Agustus 2008 4:04
(CEP News) - Investors made a late push to price in a Bank of Canada rate cut after softer-than-expected GDP figures on Friday, sparking a bond market rally and a Canadian dollar sell-off. In the U.S., equities sold off after an unexpected decline in U.S. incomes. Hurricane Gustav kept energy traders on their toes in a volatile trading session that left prices little changed.



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Friday's News Recap: Canada Avoids Recession in Q2, U.S. Personal Income Falls

Friday's News Recap: Canada Avoids Recession in Q2, U.S. Personal Income Falls
30 Agustus 2008 3:26
(CEP News) - The main releases of the day included Canadian GDP figures, which showed the country managed to skirt a technical recession in the second quarter, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure report in the U.S., which came mostly in line with expectations. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index delivered the main surprise of the day, coming in significantly higher than expected in August.



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Canada Monetary Policy Monitor

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Aug 29 08 23:18 GMT |

HIGHLIGHTS With the Canadian economy unambiguously weak, and recent inflation starting to show some indications of moderation, there is indisputably an argument for the Bank of Canada to cut rates on September 3. However, there are a few reasons why the Bank of Canada is more likely to leaves rates unchanged than to cut, including U.S. economic resilience, and high alternative CPI measures. Recent rhetoric from the Bank of Canada continues to support a neutral bias. The communiqué will be in focus, but the tone is unlikely to significantly change from the last one. TD forecasts an unchanged overnight rate at the September 3 FAD. Since the Bank of Canada decided to keep rates on hold at 3% at the July 15 Fixed Announcement Date, there has been a rather significant shift not only in the economic data, but also in how the market is pricing in future rate moves by the Bank. The accompanying statement to the July 15 meeting indicated a neutral bias, saying that "the current level of the target for the overnight rate remains appropriate" and risks were balanced. Since then, however, a raft of soft economic data has prompted the market to price in a rate cut. The economy is unambiguously weak and the slowing economic activity has had some impact on inflation. But in our view, this does not suggests a slam dunk case for a rate cut. In fact, it seems as though the Bank is comfortable with the overnight rate at 3%. Recent comments by Deputy Governor Longworth reinforced a neutral bias when he spoke on August 26. There remains some uncertainly with respect to where inflation will go in the near term and there remain subtle points of strength in the economy and inflation. Moreover, though as a secondary consideration, is the fact that the Bank has already surprised the market once this year with its decision in June to keep rates steady. There is some degree of credibility risk associated with making a move when the market is mostly pricing no change in the overnight rate. As such, by keeping rates on hold on September 3, the Bank gives itself a bit of breathing room to see how conditions unfold and avoid the market's ire. Thus, we maintain the view that the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines on September 3, leaving the overnight rate at 3%. Inflation Looks Less Threatening A slowing Canadian economy means the output gap will move further into excess supply. In turn, that will take some of the pressure off inflation, and indeed, there has already been some evidence of that. The recent inflation data has certainly come as a welcome surprise. In July, core CPI was a touch soft, with a 0.1% SA M/M gain, leaving the annual rate at 1.5%. Headline CPI remained somewhat elevated with a 0.35% SA M/M gain. On an annual basis, headline CPI rose to 3.4%, which is the highest of the cycle, as food and energy prices continue to figure in to the calculation in a big way. Food prices were up 0.6% M/M in July, which is slightly softer than the prior three months, but still relatively robust. Energy prices were also up 2.3% M/M in July, and were helped only modestly by the incipient fall in overall commodity prices. But even while headline inflation continues to advance above the top end of the BoC's inflation target band of 3%, it appears to be peaking on an M/M basis, and there has been fortunately little pass through to core prices. That is good news for the Bank of Canada, and points to downside risk in the futures, which the Bank acknowledged, itself. The breakdown in the inflation data suggests that the slowdown in the Canadian economy is starting to have some impact on prices, and will continue to do so as the economy moderates further. Prices for goods were up only 0.4% M/M in July, after averaging 1.05% M/M in the prior quarter. Moreover, services inflation seems to be moderating as well, with only a 0.25% M/M gain in service prices in July. But both are still elevated when compared to a year ago. Goods inflation rose to 3.2% Y/Y in July, and services remained relatively elevated at 3.5% Y/Y. But continued softening in economic activity should put a lid on goods prices going forward. In turn, that should prevent any significant gains in core inflation. On the labour market front, any wage pressures that were previously present, have now abated, as the labour market continues to lose steam. Canada has lost 60.2K jobs in June and July and that has taken much of the froth off wage pressures. In this cycle, average hourly wages peaked at 4.9% Y/Y in January, and by July, they were 3.8% Y/Y. As the economy cools further, so too will job growth and workers will ultimately have less bargaining power. In turn, that will further limit wage pressures. Any business sector price pressures have also moderated recently as well. At 79.8%, capacity utilization is now lower than the last recession in Canada, and only 2.1 percentage points higher than the historical low of 77.7% posted in the 1991 recession. Canadian businesses are obviously well aware of the impact that a weak U.S. economy will have on demand for Canadian goods. As such growing economic slack should keep the reins on inflation. The disconnect between headline and core CPI is expected to narrow going forward, and by the second half of 2009, the Bank expects both to be at 2%. That in itself provides some leeway for the Bank to stand back and assess conditions. Uncertainty Lingers But while the outlook for inflation going forward looks tame, there is still some uncertainty. First, the alternative inflation indicators that the Bank of Canada cares about do not look as tame as the reported inflation data and are trending around the 2-3% range. Second, the Bank has noted some concern about pass through from prior commodity price increases through to headline inflation. Third, energy prices have fallen quite dramatically through August, which suggests that July might be the last time that they factor in to headline inflation so heavily. In July, it was not gasoline prices that drove the energy component of headline inflation, but rather natural gas. The former only rose 1.2% M/M, while the latter rose a massive 8.8% M/M. Gasoline prices have dropped about 5% since July, as demand destruction heats up, which suggests some moderation in the energy price component in upcoming months. Still, energy prices are not governed solely by logic alone, and energy prices could very well begin to rise again, especially if the hurricane season yields some bad storms. This is a risk the Bank must watch for. Fourth, food inflation could be a different story, yet again. Food comprises 17% of the Canadian CPI basket and until recently, Canada has enjoyed a period of relatively subdued food prices. This is particularly true when compared to other developed countries, which have had to content with rapidly rising food prices. This has been the result of a handful of factors like the recent strength of the Canadian dollar, which has now reversed course, and a one time spate of price competition, which have kept prices contained as new grocers fought for market share in Canada. But demand destruction is not really an issue for the food market, and so significant future upside risk remains for food. Fifth, the Canadian dollar has lost just over 4% since July 15, and with the bull market in commodities now largely in the rear view mirror, we expect the Canadian dollar to ease further against the U.S. dollar. This creates an uncertain interplay between the two drivers, and likely leaves the Bank of Canada loathe to act until there is a clear direction in all inflation trends. Canada's Growth Story Winds Down Second quarter GDP was not as bad as feared, but certainly lower than expected and it missed the Bank's forecast by a sizable margin. GDP posted a 0.3% Q/Q, annualized gain, and first quarter GDP figures were revised down significantly to -0.8% Q/Q, annualized (compared to a decline of 0.3%). It is clear growth in Canada has embarked on a softening trend. Fortunately, it has not entered a technical recession, but softness is still prevalent. The drivers of growth in the second quarter were primarily from consumption, government spending and inventories. Growth is expected to remain lacklustre in the second half of the year, as the headwinds from the recession bound U.S. economy weigh on Canada. But even with slower Canadian growth, given the atrocious productivity performance in Canada, slower growth is unlikely to open up as much slack as one would expect. Thus, it seems unlikely that lacklustre growth will sway the Bank away from the sidelines. It admitted earlier this week that the risks were to the downside, but that it nonetheless retained a neutral bias. As such, this bolsters our case for the Bank to keep rates steady at 3%. Slow and Steady Wins the Race Although Canadian credit conditions have continued to stage a broad-scale improvement, there are still some lingering signs of stress. One of the best indications that Canadian credit markets are improving is the fact that the Bank of Canada recently ended its Term PRA program in July. The Bank did not renew the $1 billion term PRA citing that "conditions in Canadian markets have improved since the end of April, including funding conditions out to three months." But that is not to say that credit markets are back to where they were before the crunch hit. As Governor Carney said the Q&A following the July Monetary Policy Report Update, current conditions and spreads might be the "new normal". And perhaps the best evidence of this new normal is the fact that the three month CDOR versus OIS spread has remained contained, but it is nowhere near the 10bps that characterized the period prior to the credit troubles last year. But there have been some subtle upside surprises recently, despite much of the economic doom and gloom in Canada. Notably, U.S. GDP has surprised to the upside and has implications for Canadian GDP. Moreover, household credit growth in Canada remains robust. In fact, of the three major developments cited in the last communiqué, the U.S. economy has unfolded better than expected, while commodity prices have fallen quicker than expected. This combination suggests that the Bank does not have much room to make any significant reversals and will need to be sure on the direction of rates before it pulls the trigger. Statement Will Likely Retain Neutral Bias Given that this decision will be in between Monetary Policy Reports, it is unlikely that this statement will offer as much detail as the last one. Moreover, since our expectation is that that the Bank will keep rates steady on September 3, the focus will once again turn to what the Bank says in the communiqué. And on that front, there might be some important nuances, even though fundamentally, the Bank's outlook has probably not materially changed. As such, the statement that "the Bank judges that the current level of the target for the overnight rate remains appropriate" is likely to remain a fixture in the communiqué, in addition to a statement that the risks remain balanced. There perhaps is a risk that the Bank removes the statement about rates being "appropriate", especially if there is growing uncertainty about the direction of rates. But ultimately we think that they will retain it. As such, it is likely that the statement will stick to the broad outline set out in the last statement, and maintain a generally neutral bias. Instead, the distinctions might be in how they present the risks to the outlook. Given that there is still considerable uncertainty about the prospects for Canadian inflation, we think that the Bank will say that inflation risks are "balanced" or "roughly balanced" At the extreme they might temper it by saying that there is a slight tilt to the downside, but all should suggest unchanged rates more likely than not at future decisions. Outlook for Rates Since there are both upside and downside risks to inflation, that argues for the Bank of Canada to stay on the sidelines in the very near term. The risk going forward, however, is that the Canadian economy disappoints, and reveals further moderation in inflation trends. If this were to occur, the Bank's next move could conceivably be a rate cut. But we still think that this still has a relatively small chance of happening and we expect the Bank of Canada to keep rates steady at 3% for the remainder of 2008 and once the economy begins to improve in 2009, the risk will begin tilting towards a normalization of rates. TD Bank Financial Group The information contained in this report has been prepared for the information of our customers by TD Bank Financial Group. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does TD Bank Financial Group assume any responsibility or liability.

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Economic Calendar Summary 9/1 - 9/5

Monday, Sep 1, 2008 GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous 0:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG) -- 0.4% 0:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG) -- 4.6% 1:30 AUD Current Account Balance (Australian dollar) (2Q) -11.650B -19.492B 1:30 AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q) 2.3% 2.2% 1:30 AUD Inventories (2Q) 0.6% 0.9% 1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL) 0.3% -0.6% 5:00 JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG) -- 5.4% 6:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (AUG) -- 41.1% 7:30 CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (AUG) 53.2 54.1 7:45 EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG) 46.3 45.3 7:50 EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) 45.1 45.1 7:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) 49.9 49.9 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) 47.5 47.5 8:00 EUR Italian Large Company Employment n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) -- -0.1% 8:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG) 44.1 44.3 8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL F) -- 0.9% 8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL F) -- 11.2% 8:30 GBP M4 Sterling Lending (Pounds) (JUL F) -- 14.3 8:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit (Pounds) (JUL) 0.8B 0.9B 8:30 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (Pounds) (JUL) 3.1B 3.1B 8:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUL) 36K 36K 9:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages (MoM) (JUL) 0.2% 0.3% 9:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages (YoY) (JUL) 3.7% 3.6% 13:30 USD Fed's Kroszner Speaks in Buenos Aires on the Financial System -- -- 16:00 EUR Italian New Car Registrations (YoY) (AUG) -10.9% 17:00 EUR Italian Budget Balance (euros) (AUG) -- 2.2B 17:00 EUR Italian Budget Balance (euros) (YTD) (AUG) -- -21.1B 18:45 USD Fed's Hoenig Speaks in Argentina on Financial Turmoil -- -- 23:50 JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG) -- -0.7% Tuesday, Sep 2, 2008 GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous 1:00 JPY Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa to Speak in Nagoya -- -- 1:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL) 0.5% -0.7% 1:30 AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL) -6.4% -7.8% 4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 7.00% 7.25% 5:45 CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG) -0.1% -0.4% 5:45 CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) 3.1% 3.1% 5:45 CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) 0.2% 0.3% 5:45 CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) 2.4% 3.0% 8:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG) 36.0 36.7 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL) 1.3% 0.9% 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) 9.1% 8.0% 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (AUG) 49.7 50.0 14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid (AUG) 82.5 88.5 14:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL) -0.5% -0.4% 21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (AUG 31) -49 -50 23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence (AUG) 49 51 23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (AUG) -- 42.8 Wednesday, Sep 3, 2008 GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous -- USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (AUG) 9.4M 9.1M -- USD Total Vehicle Sales (AUG) 13.0M 12.5M 01:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) 0.40% 0.60% 01:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) 2.90% 3.60% 03:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price (AUG) -- 1.80% 07:30 EUR Italian Business Confidence (AUG) 84 83.5 07:45 EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG) 46.5 45.6 07:50 EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) 48.5 48.5 07:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) 50.6 50.6 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) 48.2 48.2 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (AUG F) 48 48 08:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG) 47 47.4 08:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (AUG) -- -$60M 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) -0.10% -0.60% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) -2.10% -3.10% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P) -0.20% -0.20% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (2Q P) 1.50% 1.50% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (2Q P) -0.60% 1.60% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P) -0.10% 0.20% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q P) 0.40% 0.40% 09:30 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (AUG) -- -- 11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 29) -- 0.50% 11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (AUG) -- 140.80% 13:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00% 14:00 USD Factory Orders (JUL) 1.00% 1.70% 16:30 USD Boston Fed's Rosengren Speaks in Manchester New Hampshire -- -- 18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book -- -- 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 29) -- -214.5B 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 29) -- 557.9B 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 29) -- -82.8B 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 29) -- -1.4196B Thursday, Sep 4, 2008 GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous -- USD ICSC Chain Store Sales (YoY) (AUG) -- 2.6% 1:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUL) 50M 411M 6:45 EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate (2Q) -- 7.5% 6:45 EUR French ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate (2Q) 7.2% 7.2% 6:45 EUR French Mainland Unemployment Change (2Q) -50K -77K 7:30 EUR Italian Retailers' Confidence General (AUG) -- 98.4 7:30 EUR Italian Services Survey (AUG) -- -8 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL) 0.0% -2.9% 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL) -3.4% -6.1% 11:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 5.00% 5.00% 11:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 4.25% 4.25% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change (AUG) -20K 9K 12:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Holds Press Conference -- -- 12:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (2Q F) 3.0% 2.2% 12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (2Q F) 0.6% 1.3% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 30) 430K 425K 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (AUG 23) -- 3423K 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (AUG) 49.5 49.5 17:40 USD Fed's Fisher Speaks in Houston on U.S. Economic Challenges -- -- 18:30 USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Salt Lake City on U.S. Economy -- -- 23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (AUG) -- 41.6 23:50 JPY Capital Spending (2Q) 0.2% -4.9% 23:50 JPY Capital Spending excl Software (2Q) -1.0% -5.3% Friday, Sep 5, 2008 GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous 6:30 AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollars) (AUG) -- 37.4B 6:45 EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (JUL) -- -32.8B 8:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Total) (euros) (JUN) -- -59.0M 8:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance EU (euros) (JUN) -- 1713.0M 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL) -0.3% 0.2% 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL) 0.9% 1.7% 11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment (AUG) 5.0K -55.2K 11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate (AUG) 6.2% 6.1% 12:30 USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (AUG) -71K -51K 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate (AUG) 5.7% 5.7% 12:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (AUG) -33K -35K 12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (AUG) 0.3% 0.3% 12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG) 3.4% 3.4% 12:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (AUG) 33.6 33.6 14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (AUG) 62.0 65.5 19:55 USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Los Angeles on U.S. Economy -- --

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