Economic Calendar

Friday, October 28, 2011

Samsung Overtakes Apple as Biggest Smartphone Seller

By Tim Culpan - Oct 28, 2011 2:10 PM GMT+0700

Samsung Electronics Co. overtook Apple Inc. (AAPL) in the last quarter to become the world’s largest smartphone vendor amid a widening technology and legal battle between the two companies.

Samsung shipped 27.8 million smartphones in the last quarter, taking 23.8 percent of the market, Milton Keynes, U.K.- based Strategy Analytics said in an e-mailed statement today. Apple’s 17.1 million shipments, comprising 14.6 percent of the market, pushed the Cupertino, California-based company to second place. Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) maintained its third position, it said.

Apple, which released its iPhone 4S this month, held the top spot for only one quarter after dislodging Espoo, Finland- based Nokia earlier this year. Samsung, based in Suwon, South Korea, has turned to Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android software to boost sales of its Galaxy smartphones and tablet computers.

“Samsung has come out with products that appeal to all the different form factors and specifications out there,” said T.Z. Wong, a Beijing-based analyst at researcher IDC. “That is a strategy they have executed very well.”

Natalie Kerris, a spokeswoman for Apple, wasn’t immediately available for comment after normal business hours. Nam Ki Yung, a Seoul-based spokesman for Samsung, declined to comment on the research company’s estimate.

Smartphone Sales

“Samsung’s rise has been driven by a blend of elegant hardware designs, popular Android services, memorable sub-brands and extensive global distribution,” Strategy Analytics wrote. “Samsung has demonstrated that it is possible, at least in the short term, to differentiate and grow by using the Android ecosystem.”

The global smartphone market climbed 44 percent from a year earlier to 117 million units, Strategy Analytics said. Nokia dropped to 14.4 percent from 32.7 percent a year earlier.

In the wider mobile-phone market that includes lower-cost devices, Nokia maintained its top spot even after losing 5 percentage points of share, the researcher said in a separate statement. Its 27.3 percent kept it ahead of Samsung’s 22.6 percent, with LG Electronics Inc. (066570) third.

Chinese phone maker ZTE Corp.’s cheaper handsets helped it take 4.7 percent and overtake Apple for fourth place. Global market shipments climbed 14 percent to 390 million units, according to the researcher.

Samsung, also the world’s largest manufacturer of televisions, today reported record revenue from its phone division that helped mask a slump in earnings from computer- memory chips and panels.

Legal Battles

Samsung rose 2.3 percent to 945,000 won at the close of trading in Seoul today. The shares have declined 0.4 percent this year, compared with a 25 percent jump for Apple.

Apple and Samsung have accused each other of infringing patents for technology used in handsets and tablets, with court cases still pending in Milan and Sydney. Legal battles between the two companies intensified after Apple claimed in an April lawsuit in the U.S. that Samsung’s Galaxy devices “slavishly” copied the iPhone and the iPad.

Apple’s profit last quarter missed analysts’ estimates for the first time in at least six years after customers delayed handset purchases in anticipation of its new phone. Sales of the new model, iPhone 4S, surpassed 4 million in the first weekend of sales that began Oct. 14, topping Apple’s previous sales record for its handsets.

Samsung and Nokia also released new handsets this month as consumers increasingly use mobile phones to surf the Internet, play videos and access social-networking sites.

Samsung and Google pit the talk-to-type technology of Android Ice Cream Sandwich against Apple’s Siri voice-command digital assistant. Nokia, which has a partnership with Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), this week unveiled its Windows-based handset called Lumia 800.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Culpan in Taipei at tculpan1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net.




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Samsung Overtakes Apple as World’s Biggest Smartphone Seller

By Tim Culpan - Oct 28, 2011 2:10 PM GMT+0700

Samsung Electronics Co. overtook Apple Inc. (AAPL) in the last quarter to become the world’s largest smartphone vendor amid a widening technology and legal battle between the two companies.

Samsung shipped 27.8 million smartphones in the last quarter, taking 23.8 percent of the market, Milton Keynes, U.K.- based Strategy Analytics said in an e-mailed statement today. Apple’s 17.1 million shipments, comprising 14.6 percent of the market, pushed the Cupertino, California-based company to second place. Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) maintained its third position, it said.

Apple, which released its iPhone 4S this month, held the top spot for only one quarter after dislodging Espoo, Finland- based Nokia earlier this year. Samsung, based in Suwon, South Korea, has turned to Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android software to boost sales of its Galaxy smartphones and tablet computers.

“Samsung has come out with products that appeal to all the different form factors and specifications out there,” said T.Z. Wong, a Beijing-based analyst at researcher IDC. “That is a strategy they have executed very well.”

Natalie Kerris, a spokeswoman for Apple, wasn’t immediately available for comment after normal business hours. Nam Ki Yung, a Seoul-based spokesman for Samsung, declined to comment on the research company’s estimate.

Smartphone Sales

“Samsung’s rise has been driven by a blend of elegant hardware designs, popular Android services, memorable sub-brands and extensive global distribution,” Strategy Analytics wrote. “Samsung has demonstrated that it is possible, at least in the short term, to differentiate and grow by using the Android ecosystem.”

The global smartphone market climbed 44 percent from a year earlier to 117 million units, Strategy Analytics said. Nokia dropped to 14.4 percent from 32.7 percent a year earlier.

In the wider mobile-phone market that includes lower-cost devices, Nokia maintained its top spot even after losing 5 percentage points of share, the researcher said in a separate statement. Its 27.3 percent kept it ahead of Samsung’s 22.6 percent, with LG Electronics Inc. (066570) third.

Chinese phone maker ZTE Corp.’s cheaper handsets helped it take 4.7 percent and overtake Apple for fourth place. Global market shipments climbed 14 percent to 390 million units, according to the researcher.

Samsung, also the world’s largest manufacturer of televisions, today reported record revenue from its phone division that helped mask a slump in earnings from computer- memory chips and panels.

Legal Battles

Samsung rose 2.3 percent to 945,000 won at the close of trading in Seoul today. The shares have declined 0.4 percent this year, compared with a 25 percent jump for Apple.

Apple and Samsung have accused each other of infringing patents for technology used in handsets and tablets, with court cases still pending in Milan and Sydney. Legal battles between the two companies intensified after Apple claimed in an April lawsuit in the U.S. that Samsung’s Galaxy devices “slavishly” copied the iPhone and the iPad.

Apple’s profit last quarter missed analysts’ estimates for the first time in at least six years after customers delayed handset purchases in anticipation of its new phone. Sales of the new model, iPhone 4S, surpassed 4 million in the first weekend of sales that began Oct. 14, topping Apple’s previous sales record for its handsets.

Samsung and Nokia also released new handsets this month as consumers increasingly use mobile phones to surf the Internet, play videos and access social-networking sites.

Samsung and Google pit the talk-to-type technology of Android Ice Cream Sandwich against Apple’s Siri voice-command digital assistant. Nokia, which has a partnership with Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), this week unveiled its Windows-based handset called Lumia 800.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Culpan in Taipei at tculpan1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net.




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Samsung Electronics Phone Sales Rise to Record, Mask Slump in Chips, TVs

By Jun Yang - Oct 28, 2011 8:37 AM GMT+0700

Samsung Electronics Co., competing with Apple Inc. (AAPL) for leadership in smartphone sales, had record profit and sales at its handsets division, helping mask a slump in earnings from computer-memory chips and panels.

The handset business had an operating profit of 2.52 trillion won ($2.3 billion) in the three months ended Sept. 30, Suwon, South Korea-based Samsung said in a statement today. That helped the company post 3.44 trillion won net income in the quarter, matching the 3.4 trillion won average of 25 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The introduction of new phones that compete with Apple’s iPhone will help mitigate falling profits at the display and chip units in the coming quarters, said Koo Ja Woo, an analyst at Kyobo Securities Co. (030610) Samsung, which uses Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android software, overtook Apple in smartphone sales in the quarter, according to estimates by brokerages including JP Morgan Chase & Co.

“Samsung’s handset business is on a solid footing,” said Yoo Byung Ok, a Seoul-based fund manager at UBS Hana Asset Management Co. “Their device is on par with Apple, and they have succeeded in positioning themselves as the leader in the Android camp. It’s hard to find downside risks to the stock.”

Samsung gained as much as 2.4 percent to 946,000 won in Seoul after the earnings announcement. They changed hands up 1.3 percent at 10:07 a.m., helping trim the losses this year to 1.3 percent. The benchmark Kospi index (KOSPI) has declined 4.7 percent.

Samsung vs. Apple

Handset shipments rose “high-20 percent” in the third quarter from a year ago, Samsung said without disclosing a specific figure. The company probably sold about 29 million smartphones in the third quarter, according to estimates by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. Apple sold about 17 million iPhones in the quarter ended Sept. 24, the Cupertino, California-based company said Oct. 18.

Samsung expanded its smartphone market share to become Apple’s closest competitor earlier this year, helped by the popularity of Android-powered Galaxy devices, according to Strategy Analytics. Global smartphone shipments expanded 76 percent in that quarter, the research company said.

Samsung and Apple have been involved in multiple court cases worldwide since Apple claimed in an April lawsuit filed in the U.S. that the Galaxy devices “slavishly” copied the iPhone and iPad.

Semiconductors

Companywide operating income, or sales minus the cost of goods sold and administrative expenses, fell 13 percent to 4.25 trillion won, in line with the company’s preliminary estimate of 4.2 trillion won.

Profit at the semiconductor division fell 53 percent to 1.59 trillion won on sales of 9.48 trillion won. Analysts estimated a profit of 1.46 trillion won.

The price of the benchmark DDR3 2-gigabit DRAM has slumped more than 70 percent in the past 12 months, according to data from Taipei-based Dramexchange Technology Inc., operator of Asia’s largest spot market for semiconductors. DRAM chips are used in personal computers to help run multiple programs simultaneously.

Global personal-computer shipments will rise 3.8 percent in 2011, less than a previous projection of 9.3 percent, Stamford, Connecticut-based Gartner Inc. said Sept. 8.

The display division, which makes flat panels for TVs and computer monitors, had an operating loss of 90 billion won, compared with a 520 billion profit a year earlier. Sales fell 13 percent to 7.08 trillion won. Analysts predicted a loss of 144.5 billion won.

The average price of Samsung’s liquid-crystal displays for televisions probably fell about 25 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, Hana Daetoo Securities Co. said in September.

The TV unit posted an operating profit of 240 billion won, compared with a loss of 250 billion won a year earlier, helped by models featuring 3-D functionality and Web-based services. Analysts expected a profit of 330 billion won.

Sales fell 0.4 percent to 14.36 trillion won.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jun Yang in Seoul at jyang180@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net




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Bangkok Flood Swamps Grand Palace as Chao Phraya River Reaches Record High

By Daniel Ten Kate and Supunnabul Suwannakij - Oct 28, 2011 3:00 PM GMT+0700

Bangkok’s Chao Phraya river swelled to a record high, swamping nearby tourist spots including the Grand Palace as Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra called for fresh ideas to stem the country’s worst floods since 1942.

“The crisis we’re facing today is the most critical natural disaster that ever happened in Thai history,” she told reporters today, adding that she would welcome suggestions from the opposition Democrat party. “I’d like to ask for cooperation from everyone that we don’t have political parties, nor political games. We must not be divided.”

The government is considering cutting channels through five major Bangkok roads to drain floodwaters seeping into northern parts of the capital as a high tide threatens riverside communities. The roads, in the city’s east, are blocking water from reaching canals that drain into the Gulf of Thailand, Transport Minister Sukumpol Suwannatat said.

Uncertainty over the severity of flooding has fueled panic in the capital, leading to shortages of bottled water, eggs and baby formula as the worst floods in more than half a century reach Bangkok. Dikes north of the city are holding back a three- meter-deep wall of water that has inundated about 10,000 factories, disrupting the supply chains of companies including Honda Motor Co. and Western Digital Corp. (WDC)

Thailand’s central bank today cut its forecast for economic growth this year as the floods take a toll on manufacturing and tourism. Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy may grow 2.6 percent in 2011, down from an earlier forecast of 4.1 percent, and 4.1 percent next year, the Bank of Thailand said today.

Stocks Gain

Stocks rose after European leaders agreed to expand a bailout fund to stem the region’s debt crisis, with the benchmark SET Index up 1.8 percent at 2:40 p.m. The baht was little changed at 30.56 to the dollar.

The floods may cause about 140 billion baht ($4.6 billion) of financial damage to manufacturers in seven industrial estates, according to the government’s insurance regulator. Japan’s casualty insurers may face about 190 billion yen ($2.5 billion) in net payouts to cover damages from Thailand’s floods, Deutsche Bank AG said in a report yesterday.

The Chao Phraya river running through the middle of Bangkok broke a record by swelling to 2.47 meters above the mean sea level, or 33 centimeters below the government’s main barriers. It is expected to climb to 2.57 meters later today, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration said on its website, and Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra warned communities in 13 districts to watch for flooding. The tide reached 1.28 meters above the mean sea level and may climb to 1.31 meters tomorrow.

Thailand’s government announced a 5-day holiday through Oct. 31 for 21 northern and central provinces to give people time to prepare for flooding. Banks remain open.

‘No Sign’

"There is no sign that floods will spread all over Bangkok," Sukhumbhand told a group of executives yesterday. “The severity of the problem depends on each area.”

The Grand Palace, about 100 meters (328 feet) from the river, was surrounded by water earlier today, state-run MCOT reported on its website. In 1942 floods, visitors rowed boats past Bangkok landmarks including Democracy Monument, about two kilometers from the palace.

The floods are mainly limited to northern and eastern areas in the capital and low-lying places near canals and rivers. The main business districts of Silom and lower Sukhumvit remained dry, with sandbag barriers protecting many office buildings and shops.

The government may evacuate people in some areas of Bangkok to nearby provinces, Natapanu Nopakun, a spokesman for the government’s Flood Relief Operations Command, said last night. Yingluck has said it could take a month for waters, which have killed 377 people since July, to recede.

‘Indeed Better’

“Too much preparation is indeed better than too little,” Natapanu said in a televised briefing last night, expressing appreciation to those who already left town. “It is hoped these measures will lead to caution.”

Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi International Airport is operating normally and the company that operates the facility is “confident” that it can be protected from flooding, Somchai Sawasdeepon, senior executive vice president of Airports of Thailand Pcl, said yesterday. Malaysia advised against non- essential travel and Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (293) canceled four flights to as the waters deter visitors.

Don Mueang Airport, which is used mostly for domestic flights, closed after floodwaters reached the runways. Yingluck has used the building to direct flood-relief efforts and provide refuge for about 4,000 evacuees who are being transferred to other locations.

Dams Full

Rainfall about 25 percent more than the 30-year average filled upstream dams to capacity, prompting authorities to release large amounts of water earlier this month down a flood plain the size of Florida, with Bangkok at its bottom tip. Authorities are aiming to drain the water around the city and through its 1,682 canals.

Residents in northern Bangkok caught fish in their homes and ate noodles with their feet resting in ankle-deep floodwaters, television images showed. In some areas, they showed residents capturing escaped crocodiles.

“I suggested that clients leave town because of shortages of drinking water and chaos at supermarkets where people are cleaning out the shelves,” said Sanit Nakajitti, a director at PSA Asia, a Bangkok-based security and risk consulting company. “It’s not a life-threatening situation; it’s more just an inconvenience.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at dtenkate@bloomberg.net; Anuchit Nguyen in Bangkok at anguyen@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net




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EU Debt Plan May Struggle to Thaw Bank Funding

By Liam Vaughan and Gavin Finch - Oct 28, 2011 4:14 PM GMT+0700

European banks, which need to refinance more than $1 trillion of debt next year, may struggle to fund themselves until policy makers follow through on a pledge to guarantee their bond sales.

European Union leaders promised this week to “urgently” look at ways to guarantee bank debt in a bid to thaw funding markets frozen by the sovereign debt crisis. Lenders have found it hard to sell bonds for the past two years and have increasingly turned to the European Central Bank for unlimited short-term emergency financing.

“The biggest problem at the moment is that banks haven’t been able to fund themselves,” said David Moss, who helps manage about 8.5 billion euros ($12 billion) at F&C Asset Management Plc in London. “If banks can’t fund themselves, they’ll struggle to exist.”

In 2008, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. gave a guarantee on bank bonds, allowing financial institutions to access markets with the backing of the government. For European policy makers to replicate the success of that program any warranty would have to be given at the EU level because the deteriorating public finances of southern states means they would struggle to back their banks, analysts said.

‘Valiant Attempt’

“It’s a valiant attempt to get term funding kick-started again,” said Andrew Stimpson, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc. in London. “But investors’ concerns are with the sovereigns not the banks, so putting the onus on the sovereigns to guarantee bank issuance does not sound convincing.”

Concern that banks will have to write down their holdings of peripheral sovereign debt has sent bank stocks down 24 percent this year, according to the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index.

Bank stocks rose for a second day today after EU leaders agreed to bolster lenders’ capital, boost the size of the region’s rescue fund and persuaded bondholders to accept a 50 percent loss on their holdings of Greek debt. Yet a gauge of banks’ willingness to lend to each other widened to its most in more than two years yesterday, showing strains in the money markets didn’t ease after the announcement.

The spread between three month dollar Libor and the overnight indexed swap rate -- a barometer for dollar-based bank-to-bank lending markets -- yesterday widened to 34.3 basis points, the most since July 2009.

‘Co-ordinated Approach’

A co-ordinated approach at the EU level is needed to support banks’ access to the funding markets, the European Banking Authority said in a statement.

“The EBA has been asked to work with the EU Commission, the ECB and European Investment Bank to urgently explore options for achieving this objective,” said the group, which oversees the work of regulators in Europe.

Analysts questioned whether the European Financial Stability Facility, which policy makers said would be leveraged to 1 trillion euros, is big enough to take on responsibility for underwriting bank debt.

The European Investment Bank, which is funded by member states including those outside the single currency, today ruled out providing “any kind” of financial support to the bank debt plan, according to an e-mail.

No European Guarantee?

Under plans being considered by policy makers, Europe would only co-ordinate the guarantees rather than provide them, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. The proposal would also be unlikely to require approval by all member states, said the person, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.

“There is talk about Europe-wide bank guarantees, but it is not clear yet how that would work,” Alberto Gallo, head of European credit strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in a telephone interview. “What is clear is that the EFSF doesn’t have enough fire-power to support this -- as well as standing behind the sovereigns and any bank recapitalizations.”

European banks were unable to sell senior unsecured bonds for more than two months this summer, the longest period on record without an offering. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) ended the drought on Sept. 29 with a 1.5 billion-euro offering. The lender priced the notes at a yield of 98 basis points more than the three- month euro interbank offered rate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The same lender paid a spread of 40 basis points to issue two-year securities in February.

‘Virtually Closed’

Europe’s banks need to refinance about 800 billion euros of bonds over the coming year, according to Gallo. Most banks typically try to meet some of that funding need months before they require it, a process known as pre-funding.

“Only a small proportion has been pre-funded given that the markets have been virtually closed since July,” Simon Adamson, a London-based analyst at independent research firm CreditSights Inc. said in an Oct. 25 interview.

In all, Western European lenders raised about 80 billion euros of senior unsecured debt denominated in the single currency this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 20 percent less than the 100 billion euros they raised in the same period in 2010.

Some of the slack will be taken up by covered bonds, Gallo said, which are considered safer by investors because they are backed by assets such as mortgages or loans. Banks globally have sold a record 318.1 billion euros of covered bonds, up from 310.1 billion euros in the same period in 2010, Bloomberg data show. The ECB said this month it would buy as much as 40 billion euros of covered bonds from November 2011 to October 2012.

ECB Funding

The extra yield investors demand to hold banks’ senior bonds instead of benchmark government debt soared to a record 360 basis points on Oct. 4, according to Barclays Capital’s Euro Aggregate Banking Senior Index. The spread has since narrowed to 315 basis points, still almost double its average of 178 basis points for the past four years.

Banks that have been unable to tap the bond markets are likely to become more reliant on the ECB for funding. When the Frankfurt-based central bank revived a tool last used at the end of 2009 to ease money-market tensions on Oct. 26, 181 banks borrowed a total of 56.9 billion euros for 12 months. The identities of the borrowers weren’t disclosed.

European governments including France, Spain, the U.K. and Germany guaranteed some bonds issued by their banks to reassure investors after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008. In May 2010, the EU ended the program when it said banks that relied on the pledges would face a review of their long-term viability.

U.S. Program

In the U.S., the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program allowed banks to issue bonds with backing from the FDIC for as long as three years. Borrowers paid a fee of 0.5 percent to guarantee debt due in six months or less, 0.75 percent for debt going out one year, or 1 percent for longer-dated maturities, according to terms on the agency’s website. More than 85 percent of U.S. banks participated in the program, including JPMorgan Chase & Co.

About 66 banks had issued $231 billion of FDIC-guaranteed debt as of Aug. 31, according to the FDIC. Sheila Bair, the agency’s former chairman, told Congress in November 2008 that in the month following introduction of the program, “we have seen bank funding rates moderate significantly.”

For the European guarantee to work, it would need to be provided by a pan-European body such as the European Investment Bank, said Philippe Bodereau, head of credit research at Pacific Investment Management Co.

“If guarantees are provided on a pan-European basis, that would be very positive but the track record for these things is that they take time,’” Bodereau said. “This could be the most important aspect of the plan for the banks.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Liam Vaughan in London at lvaughan6@bloomberg.net; Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net; Frank Connelly at fconnelly@bloomberg.net.





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Europe Looks to IMF, China for Rescue-Fund Cash

By Bloomberg News - Oct 28, 2011 3:46 PM GMT+0700

European officials are studying the idea of an International Monetary Fund channel for money for their enlarged rescue fund, as China said it needed more detail on any potential plan before deciding whether to contribute.

The European Financial Stability Facility may explore setting up a special purpose vehicle with the IMF, Klaus Regling, the EFSF’s chief executive officer, said at a briefing in Beijing today. Separately, Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said his government wants to hear about particulars such as the extent of loan guarantees to countries including Italy, and how the senior-debt portion would be structured.

European leaders aim to tap China, holder of the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves, for help after moving yesterday to contain the crisis by writing down Greek debt and targeting an expansion of the EFSF to about $1.4 trillion. China may seek to increase its influence at the IMF, a global lender of last resort, as a quid pro quo for contributing, said Tomo Kinoshita, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc.


It may suit China “to contribute to European and global financial stability by injecting funds through an IMF channel,” said Kinoshita, deputy head of Asia economics research at Nomura in Hong Kong. The nation would “try its best politically” to benefit, he added.

Stocks Gain

Asian stocks climbed, extending the best weekly rally since 2009, on renewed confidence in the global economy after better- than-forecast U.S. data added to signs of progress in Europe. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.3 percent as of 4:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.

Regling said China hasn’t set any conditions for buying EFSF bonds after being a “good” and “loyal” purchaser of the securities so far.

China’s Zhu told reporters in Beijing that details “are still under discussion” and that his government wants to know more. Zhu said he didn’t expect that information to be available until late November or December at the earliest.

“Of course we must wait for the comprehensive technical structure to be very clear and have serious and specialized discussions before making a decision on investment,” Zhu said.

Sarkozy Outreach

French President Nicolas Sarkozy spoke with Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao by phone yesterday and the two agreed to “cooperate closely” to ensure global growth and stability, Sarkozy’s office said in a statement. Regling said that he didn’t expect a “precise outcome” from talks with Chinese officials during his trip.

Japan plans to support the increase in the fund and is awaiting details, a person familiar with the matter said yesterday. Japan anticipates waiting until November for specifics on how it may be able to help with the European rescue effort, a second person said, with both speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private.

Officials from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- the so-called BRICS -- said in a Sept. 22 statement they are “open” to contributing to global financial stability through the IMF or other international financial institutions. Asia has bought 40 percent of EFSF bonds this year, according to Regling.

Not Enough

The IMF said last month that its uncommitted reserves, now about $393 billion, may not be enough to meet all loan requests should global economic prospects worsen. Group of 20 leaders meeting in Cannes, France, next week are scheduled to discuss whether the war chest is sufficient.

Creating a special purpose vehicle within the IMF would require approval by the organization’s executive board.

The IMF has channeled money from selected member countries for specific purposes before. In the 1970s, oil producers contributed to a pool that financed loans to economies hurt by the increase in the price of crude. Currently, some nations chip into a trust fund that helps lend to the poorest nations at lower rates. These pools have been used to lend to countries, not to intervene in financial markets.

Nations such as China or India have enough currency reserves to participate in a fund focused on Europe, said Mohsin Khan, a former IMF department director who is now a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Such support may come at a price, Khan said.

Quid Pro Quo

“I think there will be some quid pro quo on this,” he said. “They would like a bigger role in global financial governance and I think they will also see it as they are systemically important and they are doing something good for the world.”

China’s foreign-exchange holdings have topped $3 trillion this year, swelled by the nation’s trade surplus and inflows of speculative capital.

The IMF is involved in programs for Greece, Ireland and Portugal -- nations at the center of the debt crisis -- while China is “an important member” of the organization, Regling said. The possibility of a special vehicle “needs to be explored,” he said.

Regling was due to meet with People’s Bank of China and finance ministry officials today, he said.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net



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European Stocks Rise, U.S. Index Futures Fall

By Adam Haigh - Oct 28, 2011 6:38 PM GMT+0700

European stocks dropped from a 12- week high as investors waited to discover how the euro area plans to fund its enlarged bailout facility. Asian shares increased, while U.S. index futures slid.

Petroleum Geo-Services ASA (PGS) fell 10 percent, leading a slide among oil and gas companies, after reporting a wider-than- estimated loss. Wacker Chemie AG (WCH) slipped 7.9 percent as the German chemicals company reported third-quarter earnings and sales that trailed analysts’ estimates.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3 percent to 248.57 at 12:35 p.m. in London. The gauge surged 3.6 percent yesterday after the region’s leaders said they will boost their rescue fund’s capacity to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) in a bid to stem the debt crisis. The Stoxx 600 is headed for a weekly gain of 4 percent, its biggest rally this month.

“The situation is not resolved,” said Monika Rosen, the head of global research at UniCredit SpA in Vienna. There is a need for “political consensus between all these euro nations. That is the difficulty we are trying to solve. It’s a consensus- building process that makes it slow and unclear. Markets are still skeptical.” She spoke in a Bloomberg Radio interview with Ken Prewitt.

Futures contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in December slid 0.6 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.3 percent.

European Stock Valuations

The Stoxx 600 has fallen 9.9 percent this year amid concern that the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis will hamper growth. The gauge is trading at 10.8 times the estimated earnings of its companies, compared with the average multiple of 12 during the past five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Almost half of the 139 companies in the Stoxx 600 that have released earnings since Oct. 11 beat analysts’ profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In the U.S., reports today will probably show increases in income and spending as well as an upward revision to consumer confidence, Bloomberg surveys of economists indicate.

Petroleum Geo-Services fell 10 percent to 63.90 kroner, the biggest slide on the Stoxx 600, after reporting third-quarter net income of $13.4 million, compared with a loss of $40.4 million a year earlier. That missed the $32.6 million average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Wacker Chemie sank 7.9 percent to 77.62 euros. The Munich- based chemicals company reported third-quarter sales that trailed analysts’ estimates and forecast lower revenue in the fourth quarter.

YIT Oyj (YTY1V), Finland’s biggest builder, plunged 11 percent to 12.65 euros after posting third-quarter net income of 18.6 million euros. That missed the 38.1 million-euro mean estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Renault, Electrolux Rally

Renault SA (RNO), France’s second-biggest carmaker, jumped 2.5 percent to 31.06 euros. The carmaker said revenue increased to 9.75 billion euros from 8.71 billion euros a year earlier. That beat the 9.63 billion-euro average of four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Societe Generale SA upgraded its stance on the shares to “buy” from “hold.”

Electrolux SA rallied 3.2 percent to 122.30 kronor. The Swedish maker of household appliances said third-quarter net income fell to 826 million kronor ($130 million) from 1.38 billion kronor a year earlier. Sales dropped to 25.65 billion kronor from 26.33 billion kronor. Both profit and sales exceeded analysts’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Linde AG (LIN), the world’s second-biggest maker of industrial gases, climbed 2.2 percent to 118.55 euros after reporting third-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates, helped by cost savings and higher demand from emerging markets.

SSAB AB (SSABA) surged 5.8 percent to 66.50 kronor after posting third-quarter net income and sales that topped estimates.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net





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Samsung Overtakes Apple in Smartphone Sales

By Tim Culpan - Oct 28, 2011 2:10 PM GMT+0700

Samsung Electronics Co. overtook Apple Inc. (AAPL) in the last quarter to become the world’s largest smartphone vendor amid a widening technology and legal battle between the two companies.

Samsung shipped 27.8 million smartphones in the last quarter, taking 23.8 percent of the market, Milton Keynes, U.K.- based Strategy Analytics said in an e-mailed statement today. Apple’s 17.1 million shipments, comprising 14.6 percent of the market, pushed the Cupertino, California-based company to second place. Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) maintained its third position, it said.

Apple, which released its iPhone 4S this month, held the top spot for only one quarter after dislodging Espoo, Finland- based Nokia earlier this year. Samsung, based in Suwon, South Korea, has turned to Google Inc. (GOOG)’s Android software to boost sales of its Galaxy smartphones and tablet computers.

“Samsung has come out with products that appeal to all the different form factors and specifications out there,” said T.Z. Wong, a Beijing-based analyst at researcher IDC. “That is a strategy they have executed very well.”

Natalie Kerris, a spokeswoman for Apple, wasn’t immediately available for comment after normal business hours. Nam Ki Yung, a Seoul-based spokesman for Samsung, declined to comment on the research company’s estimate.

Smartphone Sales

“Samsung’s rise has been driven by a blend of elegant hardware designs, popular Android services, memorable sub-brands and extensive global distribution,” Strategy Analytics wrote. “Samsung has demonstrated that it is possible, at least in the short term, to differentiate and grow by using the Android ecosystem.”

The global smartphone market climbed 44 percent from a year earlier to 117 million units, Strategy Analytics said. Nokia dropped to 14.4 percent from 32.7 percent a year earlier.

In the wider mobile-phone market that includes lower-cost devices, Nokia maintained its top spot even after losing 5 percentage points of share, the researcher said in a separate statement. Its 27.3 percent kept it ahead of Samsung’s 22.6 percent, with LG Electronics Inc. (066570) third.

Chinese phone maker ZTE Corp.’s cheaper handsets helped it take 4.7 percent and overtake Apple for fourth place. Global market shipments climbed 14 percent to 390 million units, according to the researcher.

Samsung, also the world’s largest manufacturer of televisions, today reported record revenue from its phone division that helped mask a slump in earnings from computer- memory chips and panels.

Legal Battles

Samsung rose 2.3 percent to 945,000 won at the close of trading in Seoul today. The shares have declined 0.4 percent this year, compared with a 25 percent jump for Apple.

Apple and Samsung have accused each other of infringing patents for technology used in handsets and tablets, with court cases still pending in Milan and Sydney. Legal battles between the two companies intensified after Apple claimed in an April lawsuit in the U.S. that Samsung’s Galaxy devices “slavishly” copied the iPhone and the iPad.

Apple’s profit last quarter missed analysts’ estimates for the first time in at least six years after customers delayed handset purchases in anticipation of its new phone. Sales of the new model, iPhone 4S, surpassed 4 million in the first weekend of sales that began Oct. 14, topping Apple’s previous sales record for its handsets.

Samsung and Nokia also released new handsets this month as consumers increasingly use mobile phones to surf the Internet, play videos and access social-networking sites.

Samsung and Google pit the talk-to-type technology of Android Ice Cream Sandwich against Apple’s Siri voice-command digital assistant. Nokia, which has a partnership with Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), this week unveiled its Windows-based handset called Lumia 800.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Culpan in Taipei at tculpan1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net.




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Merkel Asserts Leadership, Seeks to Win Voters

By Leon Mangasarian and Patrick Donahue - Oct 28, 2011 3:23 PM GMT+0700

Chancellor Angela Merkel emerged from 10 hours of negotiations in Brussels with a plan to stem the debt crisis that might as well have been written in Berlin.

The German leader forced French President Nicolas Sarkozy to bend to her will on using the European rescue fund only as a last resort, ruled out an automatic crisis-fighting role for the European Central Bank and dragged banks back to the table to take greater losses on Greek debt. She even wrung further budget concessions out of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

“Merkel got what she wanted,” Shada Islam, an analyst at the Friends of Europe policy-advisory group in Brussels, said by phone yesterday after the summit ended. “This has confirmed Germany’s role as the make-or-break player not only in the euro- zone crisis but in European Union affairs beyond Europe.”

Two years after the debt crisis came to light in Greece, Merkel is finally translating her status as leader of Europe’s biggest economy and biggest contributor to euro-area bailouts into international clout. It may come too late to change opinion at home, where voters punished her coalition for flip-flops over tackling the crisis at seven state elections this year.

“Confidence in this government has suffered a lot,” Peter Matuschek, an analyst at the Berlin-based Forsa polling group, said by phone. “As a voter, you look for orientation, so it’s good that she’s at least able to give the impression of being decisive.” The chancellor has “gained some breathing room.”

Bundestag Backing

Seventy-six percent of German voters in a poll taken on the eve of the summit said they were unhappy with the government’s handling of the crisis and 20 percent said they were satisfied. The Infratest poll of 1,001 voters was conducted Oct. 25-26 for ARD television and released today.

Merkel traveled to Brussels on Oct. 26 bolstered by a parliament vote in Berlin that allowed her to negotiate to raise the capacity of the 440 billion-euro ($618 billion) rescue fund. She won cross-party support after pledging that German guarantees wouldn’t be raised from the existing level of 211 billion euros and the ECB shouldn’t be relied upon to continue its bond-buying program to staunch the crisis. No mention of the ECB’s bond-purchase program was made in the summit’s 15-page statement.

Addressing lawmakers before she left Berlin, Merkel said that the summit’s main goal would be to cut Greece’s debt to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, a level that international creditors said last week could be achieved if bondholders accepted voluntary 50 percent losses. Banks bowed to pressure yesterday to accept a 50 percent haircut on Greek debt after Merkel made clear it was European leaders’ “last word.”

‘German Handwriting’

Sarkozy had wanted the rescue fund to be used to bail out distressed banks. Merkel stipulated that the fund should be used only as a backstop of last resort. Taken together, the decisions clearly display “German handwriting,” Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Asmussen, who attended the summit, said later in Berlin.

Merkel’s domestic allies praised her Brussels performance. The summit was a “breakthrough” in fighting the crisis and a “great success for the chancellor,” Volker Kauder, the floor leader of her Christian Democratic Union, said in an interview with Focus magazine. Otto Fricke, budget spokesman in parliament for her Free Democratic Party coalition partner, which has flirted with an anti-bailout stance, told broadcaster Phoenix that the outcome was a “big step forward.” Even Carsten Schneider, Fricke’s opposition counterpart from the Social Democratic Party, said the 50 percent reduction in Greek debt was “okay,” though it “ought to have come far sooner.”

Bild’s Verdict

“Merkel’s euro rescue,” Germany’s best-selling Bild newspaper said on its front page today. “It was an all-night poker session -- and Chancellor Angela Merkel the winner.”

Since October 2009, when Merkel formed her second-term government and Greece’s debt burden began to emerge with the arrival of George Papandreou as Greek prime minister, the German government parties have lost ground to the opposition.

Merkel’s coalition trails the opposition Social Democrats and Greens by 34 percent to 43 percent, a Forsa poll for Stern magazine showed Oct. 26. That’s down from the 48.4 percent won by Merkel’s Christian Democrats and Free Democrats at the 2009 election. The SPD and Greens, traditional allies which governed together from 1998 to 2005, took 33.7 percent in 2009. The next federal election is due in the fall of 2013.

After a positive EU summit, Merkel “could take advantage of it to stabilize the situation,” said Forsa’s Matuschek.

At least until next week, when Merkel will press global leaders at a Group of 20 meeting in Cannes, France, on a financial transaction tax and measures to tackle banks deemed “too big to fail.” She will also present Europe’s plan to leaders including President Barack Obama, who has repeatedly prodded Merkel and her euro colleagues to stamp out the crisis.

“We’ve achieved some things,” Merkel told lawmakers on Oct. 26. “A more important step will be taken in Cannes.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Leon Mangasarian in Berlin at lmangasarian@bloomberg.net; Patrick Donahue in Berlin at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net


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Saving Euro Produced Sarkozy Rage as Merkel Bent Banks in Six-Day Marathon

By Tony Czuczka and Helene Fouquet - Oct 28, 2011 5:00 AM GMT+0700

The guardians of the euro arrived in Brussels last week knowing their efforts to quell the Greek debt crisis over the past two years had failed to build confidence.

Europe’s image is “disastrous,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who chairs the group of euro finance chiefs, said Oct. 21 as the six-day meeting marathon began.

By the time everyone headed home in the wee hours yesterday, Europe had its revamped plan to prevent a Greek default, safeguard banks and shield Italy from the contagion. In the meantime, tempers flared, threats were made and French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s simmering resentments toward his British and Italian counterparts boiled over.

“We have found a durable solution to the Greece crisis,” said Sarkozy at about 3:55 a.m. yesterday, hustling to the podium to hold the first post-summit press conference.

Even so, the timeline was defined by Germany, where lawmakers demanded the right to ratify the crisis plan, requiring both an Oct. 23 meeting and the gathering that started on Oct. 26.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, shuttling between lawmakers in Berlin, conference rooms and her hotel in the cobblestoned center of Brussels, set the tone while en route. After receiving a flower bouquet from the women’s caucus of her Christian Democratic party in Wiesbaden, Germany on Oct. 22, she delivered a speech singling out Italy for its debt load, saying investors weren’t wrong to demand higher yields on debt from Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s government.

Garden Party

That evening, she and Berlusconi huddled at a botanic garden outside Brussels, where she pressed the message that he had to do more to cut the EU’s second-highest debt after Greece.

Later that night, Merkel joined Sarkozy for a sitdown with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, EU President Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission President Jose Barroso and EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde was also there.

When it was over, Merkel sipped wine with aides including Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Asmussen, one of the negotiators on the Greek debt writedown, and spokesman Steffen Seibert in the bar of the Amigo Hotel past 1 a.m. Xavier Musca, Sarkozy’s chief economic adviser, stopped for a chat without sitting down.

Sunday Jog

Sarkozy began the next day with a run at 8 a.m. in the city’s Royal Park, texting on his cell phone as he jogged with four bodyguards in tow on the crisp fall Sunday.

French-German togetherness followed as Merkel gave Sarkozy a brown teddy bear by German stuffed-toy maker Margarete Steiff GmbH for Giulia, his newborn daughter. News photos showed Sarkozy talking on his cell phone while unwrapping the gift.

Berlusconi, faced with pressure from investors for budget cuts and from France to remove Lorenzo Bini Smaghi from the executive board of the ECB, wasn’t feeling much love.

The Italian premier, though, had previously declined to name Bini Smaghi to replace Italian Mario Draghi as head of the Bank of Italy.

“What should I do, should I kill him?” Berlusconi said he told Sarkozy when pressed about Bini Smaghi, whom France wants to replace with one of its own on the ECB board. Bini Smaghi must understand he can’t be a “cause of war” with France and will quit by the end of the year, Berlusconi said.

Smiling Leaders

By 5 p.m., Merkel and Sarkozy were having a laugh at Berlusconi’s expense at a Franco-German news conference. Asked by reporters whether the Italian leader reassured them, Sarkozy smiled and looked at Merkel, who broke into a grin. It was a talk “among friends” and she expected Berlusconi to deliver, Merkel said.

The incident was splashed across the front pages of Italian newspapers, with many running color photos of the French and German leaders smirking. The papers’ websites carried links of the video, which was played throughout the day on most of the country’s news programs.

Berlusconi said Merkel had apologized for the laughter at the press conference. Merkel spokesman Seibert denied the contrition and in a Twitter post said there was “no apology from the Chancellor because there was nothing to apologize for.”

Inside the meetings, British Prime Minister David Cameron felt Sarkozy’s wrath after pressing euro-area leaders to finally swat away the crisis. Sarkozy, his voice rising, replied that if the U.K. wanted to be involved it should have joined the euro, said two people familiar with the encounter over lunch.

Rising Anger

As policy makers left the building named after 16th-century Flemish philosopher Justus Lipsius with most of their business unfinished, they knew they were coming back on Oct. 26. The reason: Merkel needed lawmakers to approve options agreed to by the 17 euro-area leaders for boosting the effectiveness of the region’s rescue fund. It was part of the new master plan to avoid a Greek default, fortify banks and stop the crisis from engulfing Italy.

Hemmed in by Germany’s constitutional court and with voters fed up with bailouts for weaker euro countries, Merkel has made her concern for domestic sentiment a hallmark of Europe’s crisis response.

With the U.S. and other global partners pressing Europe to contain the debt crisis, Merkel lined up cross-party support for boosting the firepower of the European Financial Stability Facility after persuading the main opposition Social Democrats and Greens to back a motion that caps German guarantees.

“The world is watching Europe and Germany,” she said before lawmakers backed the plan.

Longest Day

Heading back to Brussels on Oct. 26, Seibert posted on Twitter, “it’s going to be a long day.”

He was right.

With the outlines of a deal set, Europe’s leaders summoned bankers at midnight to nail it down. Gathered in Van Rompuy’s office, the bankers, represented by Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, were given the ultimatum: Take the package that involved a 50 percent writedown of Greek debt or face worse consequences.

The politicians had their answer two hours later.

“It was the fiercely delivered wish by Merkel, Sarkozy, Juncker, that if a voluntary agreement with the banks was not possible, we wouldn’t resist one second to move toward a scenario of the total insolvency of Greece,” Juncker told reporters. That “would have cost states a lot of money and would have ruined the banks.”

When markets in Europe and the U.S. opened a few hours later, leaders got the endorsement they were struggling for, with stocks and the euro soaring.

“We Europeans showed tonight that we reached the right conclusions,” Merkel said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tony Czuczka in Brussels at aczuczka@bloomberg.net; Helene Fouquet in Brussels at hfouquet1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net




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Greece Will Leave Euro Even With Pact: Rogoff

By John Detrixhe and Michael McKee - Oct 28, 2011 6:49 AM GMT+0700

European leaders’ agreement to expand a bailout fund to stem the region’s debt crisis only buys time as Greece will likely still leave the euro in the next decade, Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff said.

“It feels at its root to me like more of the same, where they’ve figured how to buy a couple of months,” Rogoff said as a compensated speaker at the Bloomberg FX11 Summit in New York yesterday. “It’s pretty darn clear the euro does not work, that it’s not a stable equilibrium.”


European leaders bolstered their crisis-fighting toolbox by boosting the heft of their rescue fund to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) and persuading bondholders to take 50 percent losses on Greek debt. Measures also included a recapitalization of European banks and a potentially bigger role for the International Monetary Fund in strengthening the bailout fund.

Stocks surged after the agreement, extending the biggest monthly rally for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1974. Treasuries sank, while the euro strengthened and metals and oil led a rally in commodities.

The euro appreciated as much as 2.5 percent, more than 3 cents, to $1.4247, the highest since Sept. 6, before closing at $1.4189 yesterday in New York. It was the biggest rally on an intraday basis since July 2010.

“My read of this is that the markets are cheered that they’re still alive,” said Rogoff, 58, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist. “Even in a fairly short period, doubts will start to grow again.”

Debt to GDP

Still to be worked out in negotiations, which may fall prey to fresh bouts of political infighting and investor revolt, is just how the firepower of the 440 billion-euro rescue facility will be leveraged and what banks will get in return for accepting the Greek haircut. As next week’s Group of 20 summit looms, nations from Greece to Italy remain under pressure to restore fiscal order and the onus is on a Mario Draghi-run European Central Bank to keep buying bonds.

One goal of the agreement is to lower Greece’s debt as a percentage of gross domestic product to 120 percent. Nations historically have run into trouble when public debt exceeds about 90 percent of GDP, according to Rogoff.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that we’ll see more defaults beyond Greece,” Rogoff said. “The interesting question is will all the countries in the euro still be in the euro? My answer to that is no.”

Yields Decline

There’s at least as much as an 80 percent chance that Greece will leave the 17-nation common currency in the next 10 years, he said.

Even after yesterday’s gains, the bonds of some of Europe’s most-indebted countries are still trading near their historical lows. Greece’s two-year yield slid 285 basis points to 76.9 percent yesterday, compared with an average of 27 percent in the past year. Italy’s 10-year yield, which averaged 4.93 percent in the past 12 months, fell five basis points to 5.87 percent yesterday.

“There’s just too many inconsistencies,” Rogoff said. That multiple independent countries are using a common currency “is missing some big things and it’s just not in equilibrium.”

“This Time Is Different,” a book he co-wrote with Carmen Reinhart, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said that a recovery after a financial crisis is especially protracted and that higher levels of debt tend accompany slower growth.

To contact the reporters on this story: John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net



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Bangkok Prepares to Evacuate Some Residents as High Tide Worsens Flooding

By Daniel Ten Kate and Anuchit Nguyen - Oct 28, 2011 12:03 AM GMT+0700

Thailand’s government prepared to evacuate more people from Bangkok as a high tide starting today may exacerbate flooding that has killed 373 people and swamped factories north of the capital.

“Too much preparation is indeed better than too little,” Natapanu Nopakun, a spokesman for the government’s Flood Relief Operations Command, said in a televised briefing last night, expressing appreciation to those who already left town. “It is hoped these measures will lead to caution.”

The government may evacuate people in some areas of Bangkok to nearby provinces, he said, adding that residents in one-story houses near rivers and canals are most at risk. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has said it could take a month for waters to drain to the Gulf of Thailand.

Uncertainty over the severity of flooding has fueled panic in the capital, leading to shortages of bottled water, eggs and baby formula as the worst floods in more than half a century reach Bangkok. Dikes north of the city are holding back a three- meter-deep wall of water that has inundated about 10,000 factories, disrupting the supply chains of companies including Toyota Motor Corp. and Apple Inc.

“I suggested that clients leave town because of shortages of drinking water and chaos at supermarkets where people are cleaning out the shelves,” said Sanit Nakajitti, a director at PSA Asia, a Bangkok-based security and risk consulting company. “It’s not a life-threatening situation; it’s more just an inconvenience.”

Chao Phraya River

Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra warned communities in 13 districts to watch for flooding as the Chao Phraya river is expected to swell to a record. Severe flooding was limited to a handful of Bangkok’s 50 districts so far, he said.

“There is no sign that floods will spread all over Bangkok,” Sukhumbhand told a group of executives yesterday. “The severity of the problem depends on each area.”

Thailand’s government announced a 5-day holiday through Oct. 31 for 21 northern and central provinces to give people time to prepare for flooding. Commercial banks and financial markets will remain open.

The nation’s benchmark SET Index gained 2.3 percent as stocks surged around the globe after European leaders agreed to expand a bailout fund to stem the region’s debt crisis. The baht rose 0.4 percent to 30.67 per dollar, its strongest level in a week as international investors boosted equity holdings.

Credit Suisse Group AG cut its forecast for Thailand’s economic growth this year to 2.7 percent from 3.5 percent, it said in a report yesterday. The forecast for average inflation for 2012 was raised to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent as supply shortages because of flooding drives up product prices, it said.

Insurers

Thailand’s floods may cause about 140 billion baht of financial damage to manufacturers in seven industrial estates, according to the government’s insurance regulator. Japan’s casualty insurers may face about 190 billion yen ($2.5 billion) in net payouts to cover damages from Thailand’s floods, Deutsche Bank AG said in a report yesterday.

Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi International Airport is operating normally and the company that operates the facility is “confident” that it can be protected from flooding, Somchai Sawasdeepon, senior executive vice president of Airports of Thailand Pcl, said yesterday. Malaysia advised against non- essential travel and Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (293) canceled four flights to Bangkok as the waters deter visitors.

Power Cuts

Don Mueang Airport, which is used mostly for domestic flights, closed after floodwaters reached the runways and has experienced electricity outages. Yingluck has used the building to direct flood-relief efforts and provide refuge for about 4,000 evacuees who are being transferred to other locations.

“Power blackouts are normal when water gets access to the system,” Yingluck told reporters yesterday. “We will reconsider moving again after all the flood victims here move out.”

Rainfall about 25 percent more than the 30-year average filled upstream dams to capacity, prompting authorities to release large amounts of water earlier this month down a flood plain the size of Florida, with Bangkok at its bottom tip. Authorities are aiming to drain the water around Bangkok and through the city’s 1,682 canals.

Residents in northern Bangkok caught fish in their homes and ate noodles with their feet resting in ankle-deep floodwaters, television images showed. In some areas, they showed residents capturing escaped crocodiles.

The government plans to open evacuation centers in provinces including Chon Buri and Kanchanaburi that will be able to house 120,000 people, said Pracha Promnog, a Cabinet member who heads flood relief efforts.

“For people who choose to stay in Bangkok, we have a plan for a food-storage center,” he said. “Electricity and water should not be a problem.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at dtenkate@bloomberg.net; Anuchit Nguyen in Bangkok at anguyen@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net





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Hewlett-Packard Will Keep PC Business

By Aaron Ricadela - Oct 28, 2011 11:01 AM GMT+0700

Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman, by abandoning a proposal to spin off the company’s market-leading personal-computer unit, took a step toward unwinding the moves that led to her predecessor’s ouster.

In her first major move since taking over on Sept. 22, Whitman backed away from a proposition made by Leo Apotheker a month before he was fired. She said in an interview she may also resurrect a push into tablet computers, an effort that languished under the former CEO, and in another break with the past, Whitman is sharing management with Chairman Ray Lane.

“HP has been a comedy of errors, and selling a third of their revenue right now is probably not sound,” said Brian Marshall, an analyst at ISI Group in San Francisco. “This is obviously a pretty big reversal of the strategy Leo put into place.”

Hewlett-Packard, based in Palo Alto, follows Netflix Inc. (NFLX), another Silicon Valley technology company, in changing tack on policies that displeased investors. Netflix abandoned a plan this month to split into two businesses, a move that would have made subscribers choose between different services for DVDs and streaming video.

Whitman is keeping PCs to maintain a diverse product lineup and to help Hewlett-Packard drive bigger bargains when purchasing components. Her aim is to step up growth and avoid the management missteps that rankled shareholders and led the company to cut sales forecasts three times under Apotheker.

Costly Sale

The decision on PCs followed a review that found Hewlett- Packard’s role as the largest PC seller was too valuable to its brand, procurement power and customer relationships, the company said yesterday.

“If you try to hive a division off, it’s really hard because you almost have to recreate the whole thing,” Whitman said in the interview.

Offloading the division also would have rung up $1.5 billion in one-time expenses and $1 billion a year in ongoing costs related to replicating functions, Whitman said. And the spun-off company might have ended up competing with its parent in servers and other markets, she said.

Holding on to PCs affords the company purchasing advantages, giving it the clout to negotiate better prices for chips and hard drives, which are used in both PCs and servers. That’s especially useful with memory chips, given their volatile prices, said Richard Shim, an analyst at market research firm DisplaySearch, part of NPD Group.

‘Like Jet Fuel

“If you can ensure a certain volume then you can get a consistent price; it’s like jet fuel to airlines,” he said. Computer companies also benefit from packaging PCs, servers and other gear in the same sale, Shim said.

While Whitman has taken charge of computer hardware and corporate functions, Lane is focused on software and technology services, she said. That lets the executives “cover more ground,” Whitman said. Lane, a partner at venture firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, is spending 30 percent of his time working on Hewlett-Packard business, she said.

When Whitman agreed to become Hewlett-Packard’s CEO in September, it was on the condition that Lane be executive chairman, according to a person close to the company. The two executives compare notes on a daily basis and hold a more detailed meeting once a week, Whitman said yesterday.

Apotheker was ousted a month after announcing the spinoff idea, dogged by a slump that forced him to cut sales forecasts three times in less than a year.

Tablet Revival?

He also undermined investors’ confidence with a $10.3 billion agreement to buy software company Autonomy Corp., announced the same day as the PC group review, and by killing the company’s TouchPad tablet computer less than two months after its high-profile debut.

The next test for Whitman will be the company’s Nov. 21 fourth-quarter earnings report, when she’ll give guidance for the current fiscal year, which ends next October, and detail her strategic plans for next year. Whitman and Chief Financial Officer Cathie Lesjak are working on those plans now, Whitman told analysts during a conference call yesterday.

“We confused the market pretty dramatically,” Whitman told analysts. “No matter where I go, the first question I get is, ’What is HP?’”

While she wouldn’t get into details, the CEO reiterated plans to steer clear of large acquisitions and work on positioning the company to deliver cloud-computing services and capitalize on the merging of consumer and business technology in a way that companies’ information-technology departments can support.

Whitman also isn’t giving up on tablets, despite the dominance of Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPad, she said yesterday. The company is working with Microsoft Corp. to use the pending Windows 8 operating system on tablet computers, and Hewlett-Packard may come back to market with a tablet running its own WebOS software, she said.

“The market was created by Apple,” she said. “That doesn’t mean there couldn’t be a strong No. 2 player.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Ricadela in San Francisco at aricadela@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net


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Sprint Said Near Deal With Clearwire for New Multiyear Agreement

By Olga Kharif and Scott Moritz - Oct 28, 2011 11:00 AM GMT+0700

Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) and Clearwire Corp. (CLWR) are near an agreement to extend their existing network- sharing agreement for three to five years, said three people with direct knowledge of the matter.

The deal would allow Overland Park, Kansas-based Sprint to use Clearwire’s network to provide services to its customers after the current pact expires at the end of 2012, said the people, who wouldn’t be identified because the matter isn’t public. Though details are still being negotiated and a final accord isn’t certain, the price Sprint pays for Clearwire to handle its traffic is likely to fall, the people said.

A new wholesale agreement would put Clearwire, the money- losing wireless broadband provider, on more stable financial ground. The company has said it needs about $1 billion to shift its network to Long-Term Evolution, or LTE, wireless technology and finance its operations. Sprint, the third-largest U.S. wireless operator, owns a majority of Clearwire and is its largest wholesale customer.

“Assuming that Sprint and Clearwire sign a new agreement, it provides Clearwire with an ongoing source of revenue,” Michael Nelson, an analyst at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., said in an interview. “This would likely help them get funding, because it would provide increased visibility into revenue- getting opportunities and reduce the risk profile.”

No Sprint Financing

Sprint won’t provide financing to Kirkland, Washington- based Clearwire under the new pact, two of the people said. Clearwire had previously said it is looking at additional wholesale agreements and spectrum sales as potential sources of funds.

When Sprint said Oct. 7 that it would stop selling devices that use WiMax, Clearwire’s existing wireless technology, signaling the partnership may end next year, Clearwire’s stock fell 32 percent. Sprint CEO Dan Hesse said on an Oct. 26 conference call that the companies are negotiating a possible contract extension, lifting Clearwire shares 20 percent.

Sprint would benefit from lower pricing, as well as additional network capacity, which it may need as more of the company’s customers use smartphones to watch mobile videos, check e-mail and browse the Web. The company recently began selling Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s popular iPhone.

Sprint rose 4.8 percent to $2.63 yesterday at the close in New York and was little changed in extended trading. The company has dropped 38 percent this year. Clearwire fell 2.6 percent to $1.91 yesterday at the close and gained as much as 11 percent to $2.12 in late trading. Clearwire has lost 63 percent in the last 12 months.

To contact the reporter on this story: Olga Kharif in Portland, Oregon, at okharif@bloomberg.net Scott Moritz in New York at smoritz6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Elstrom at pelstrom@bloomberg.net




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Asia Stocks Rise on U.S. Economic Growth Outlook

By Yoshiaki Nohara - Oct 28, 2011 7:18 AM GMT+0700

Asian stocks rose, sending a benchmark index toward its biggest weekly gain since May 2009, as the fastest U.S. economic growth in a year boosted the earnings outlook for Asian exporters after Europe announced measures to contain the region’s debt crisis.

Honda Motor Co., Japan’s second-largest carmaker by market value that gets 83 percent of its revenue abroad, rose 3.1 percent. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s biggest lender, advanced 2.6 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), Australia’s No. 1 mining company, jumped 2.1 percent after metal and crude prices increased.

Fears of a U.S. recession are fading, according toTim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion in equities at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “It’s not an economic scenario at this stage that the U.S. will go into a recession,” he said. “The market has been pricing in less macro-economic risks as a result of what happened over the last 24 hours.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.3 percent to 124.49 as of 9:13 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure has gained 7.3 percent this week, the most since the week ended May 8, 2009.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 1.6 percent and South Korea’s Kospi Index advanced 1.8 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.3 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed.

To contact the reporter on this story: Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Gentle at ngentle2@bloomberg.net.




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Baidu Profit Rises 80% on Search-Engine Ad Sales

By Bloomberg News - Oct 28, 2011 5:02 AM GMT+0700

Baidu Inc., China’s biggest Internet company by market value, said third-quarter profit rose 80 percent, beating analysts’ estimates, as revenue from search- engine advertising surged.

Net income attributable to Baidu climbed to 1.88 billion yuan ($295 million), or 5.38 yuan per American depositary receipt, compared with 1.05 billion yuan, or 3 yuan, a year earlier, Baidu said today in a statement. That exceeded the 1.85 billion yuan average of eight analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Revenue jumped 85 percent as advertisers paid more for keywords to reach online users in China, where Baidu fields more than 80 percent of search-engine queries. Chief Executive Officer Robin Li, named by Forbes magazine as China’s second- richest man, is boosting investments on services, such as wireless and travel features, to meet competition from rivals Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700)

“Baidu is getting its customers to increase their advertising spending,” Kelvin Ho, who rates the stock “buy” at Yuanta Securities in Hong Kong, said before the earnings announcement. Baidu is gaining market share in China from rivals including Google Inc. (GOOG), he said.

Baidu shares rose 5.8 percent to $138.39 today in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The stock has climbed 43 percent this year, outpacing rivals.

The Hong Kong-traded shares of Tencent, China’s biggest online-games company, are up 9.5 percent in 2011. Shares of Alibaba.com Ltd. (1688) -- the business-to-business unit of Alibaba Group, the country’s biggest e-commerce company -- have declined 30 percent.

--Edmond Lococo, Mark Lee. Editors: Garry Smith,

To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Lee in Hong Kong at wlee37@bloomberg.net; Edmond Lococo in Beijing at elococo@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net




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Samsung Profit Beats Estimates on Smartphones

By Jun Yang - Oct 28, 2011 7:06 AM GMT+0700

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s second-largest maker of mobile phones, reported third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates after the company sold a record amount of Galaxy handsets.

Net income in the three months ended Sept. 30 totaled 3.44 trillion won ($3.1 billion), the company said in a statement today, compared with the 3.4 trillion won average of 25 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. A year earlier, the company had a net income of 4.46 trillion won.

The surging handset business will continue to drive earnings at the Suwon, South Korea-based electronics maker, offsetting falling profit at its display and chip divisions, said Koo Ja Woo, an analyst at Kyobo Securities Co. Samsung sold more smartphones than Apple Inc. did in the third quarter, according to estimates by brokerages including JP Morgan Chase & Co.

“Their smartphone business will keep getting better, with growth in shipments continuing,” Koo said before today’s announcement. Samsung has “strength in hardware” and is able to supply key handset components itself, the Seoul-based analyst said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jun Yang in Seoul at jyang180@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net




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Sprint Said Near Deal With Clearwire

By Olga Kharif and Scott Moritz - Oct 28, 2011 6:29 AM GMT+0700

Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) and Clearwire Corp. (CLWR) are near an agreement to extend their existing network- sharing agreement for three to five years, said three people with direct knowledge of the matter.

The deal would allow Overland Park, Kansas-based Sprint to use Clearwire’s network to provide services to its customers after the current pact expires at the end of 2012, said the people, who wouldn’t be identified because the matter isn’t public. Though details are still being negotiated and a final accord isn’t certain, the price Sprint pays for Clearwire to handle its traffic is likely to fall, the people said.

A new wholesale agreement would put Clearwire, the money- losing wireless broadband provider, on more stable financial ground. The company has said it needs about $1 billion to shift its network to Long-Term Evolution, or LTE, wireless technology and finance its operations. Sprint, the third-largest U.S. wireless operator, owns a majority of Clearwire and is its largest wholesale customer.

“Assuming that Sprint and Clearwire sign a new agreement, it provides Clearwire with an ongoing source of revenue,” Michael Nelson, an analyst at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., said in an interview. “This would likely help them get funding, because it would provide increased visibility into revenue- getting opportunities and reduce the risk profile.”

No Sprint Financing

Sprint won’t provide financing to Kirkland, Washington- based Clearwire under the new pact, two of the people said. Clearwire had previously said it is looking at additional wholesale agreements and spectrum sales as potential sources of funds.

When Sprint said Oct. 7 that it would stop selling devices that use WiMax, Clearwire’s existing wireless technology, signaling the partnership may end next year, Clearwire’s stock fell 32 percent. Sprint CEO Dan Hesse said on a conference call yesterday the two companies are negotiating a possible contract extension, lifting Clearwire shares 20 percent.

Sprint would benefit from lower pricing, as well as additional network capacity, which it may need as more of the company’s customers use smartphones to watch mobile videos, check e-mail and browse the Web. The company recently began selling Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s popular iPhone.

Sprint rose 4.8 percent to $2.63 at the close in New York and was little changed in extended trading. The company has dropped 38 percent this year. Clearwire fell 2.6 percent to $1.91 at the close and gained as much as 11 percent to $2.12 in late trading. Clearwire has lost 63 percent in the last 12 months.

To contact the reporter on this story: Olga Kharif in Portland, Oregon, at okharif@bloomberg.net; Scott Moritz in New York at smoritz6@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Elstrom at pelstrom@bloomberg.net




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Corzine Copying Goldman at MF Sends Stock Down as Bet Fails

By Matthew Leising - Oct 28, 2011 3:15 AM GMT+0700

Jon Corzine, who won the top job at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. by leading the firm’s fixed-income unit, now says he’s responsible for trading decisions that have almost wiped out the stock-market value of his futures brokerage.

Since Corzine became chairman and chief executive officer of New York-based MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) in March 2010, he’s increased the firm’s risk and used its own money to trade, including investments in European sovereign debt that have tumbled in value. This week, the firm reported its biggest quarterly loss ever, Moody’s Investors Service cut its rating to one level above junk, shares plummeted 61 percent and 6.25 percent bonds issued in August fell into distressed levels.

“On a personal note, our positions and the judgment about risk-mediation steps are my personal responsibility and a prime focus of my attention,” the 64-year-old former New Jersey Democratic governor and U.S. senator said Oct. 25 on an earnings conference call with analysts.

MF Global, the former brokerage unit of London-based Man Group Plc (EMG) that went public in July 2007, is seeking a buyer for its futures brokerage subsidiary and is looking to strike a deal within days, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

The firm has been contacting large banks already in the futures business, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are private. Under the plan being discussed, its holding company and other businesses wouldn’t be included in the sale, the people said.

Credit Deterioration

Fitch Ratings cut the rankings of MF Global to BB+, the highest junk status, from BBB today, citing the challenges of earning profits from interest in the current “low interest rate environment.” The Federal Reserve target on overnight loans has been between zero and 0.25 percent since late 2008. The ratings company also noted MF Global’s increased proprietary trading.

“These increased risk taking activities have resulted in sizeable concentrated positions relative to the firm’s capital base, leaving MF vulnerable to potential credit deterioration and/or significant margin calls,” Fitch wrote.

MF Global is getting advice from Evercore Partners Inc. as it seeks buyers for the brokerage unit and examines other options, the people said. Market perceptions may leave the firm in the same kind of position faced by banks during the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008, when credit dried up, said Fifth Third Asset Management’s Mitchell Stapley in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Lesson From 2008

“It’s the one lesson you take away from the 2008 experience,” said Stapley, chief fixed-income officer for Fifth Third, which manages $22 billion. “When sentiment turns on any financial firm that’s dependent on external sources of funding, as really any financial firm is, and if the markets lose confidence in them and you can begin to see sources of funding dry up, the pressures on a firm escalate so quickly, so dramatically.”

Corzine, whose holdings individually and through a trust total 441,960 shares priced at $1.43 each, declined to be interviewed, said Diana DeSocio, an MF Global spokeswoman. The company, which provides execution and clearing services for exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives and foreign- exchange products, doesn’t comment on stock or bond price movements, she said.

‘Have to Act’

“They have to act pretty quickly,” Peter Kovalski, a money manager who owns about 25,000 MF Global shares at Alpine Woods Capital Investors LLC in Purchase, New York, said in a telephone interview. His firm manages about $6 billion. “They have to focus on the immediate problems, they shouldn’t be focusing on the long-term strategic plans at this time. They need to be focusing on short-term survivability.”

The Illinois-born son of a farmer and schoolteacher, Corzine graduated from the University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign in 1969, served in the Marine Corps Reserve and received his master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago in 1973. He was recruited by Goldman Sachs in 1975 as a trainee on the government bond desk.

In 1994, with Corzine as co-head of fixed-income, Goldman Sachs’s pretax income fell by more than 80 percent as the company lost money on wrong-way interest rate bets, according to William Cohan’s history of the investment bank, “Money and Power,” published this year by Doubleday. Corzine resisted then-Chairman Stephen Friedman’s calls to scale back risk- taking, according to the book. Still, Corzine rose to chairman that year when Friedman departed.

Russia Positions

Four years later, Corzine, as co-CEO, pushed traders to keep risky positions after Russia announced a devaluation of the ruble and defaulted on some of its foreign debt, while co-CEO Henry Paulson pushed to exit the holdings, according to Cohan. The firm had almost $1 billion in trading losses in the second half of that year.

He left Goldman Sachs in 1999 with an estimated $400 million as the firm went public. Corzine was elected to the Senate the following year and became governor in 2006. He was defeated in the November 2009 election by Republican Chris Christie.

Corzine was recommended for the position at MF Global by former Goldman Sachs banker Christopher Flowers, the chairman and CEO of JC Flowers & Co. At the same time he took the job, Corzine became an operating partner of Flowers’s buyout firm, which in 2008 bought as much as $300 million of preferred stock in the firm at a conversion price of $12.50 a share. JC Flowers controls one of the eight board seats at MF Global.

Investors Cheer

Corzine received a $1.5 million signing bonus and is paid an annual salary in the same amount. He is set to receive a retention bonus of $1.5 million if he’s at the firm as of March 31, 2014.

His arrival on March 23, 2010, was cheered by investors who drove MF Global shares up 10 percent the next day to $8.08. The shares rose as high as $9.76 in April 2010 as Corzine said that the firm’s move toward trading directly with clients was becoming more certain.

By the quarter that ended in June, MF Global revenue from trading with the firm’s own money and from taking the other side of client trades, both Corzine initiatives, rose to 42 percent of sales, from 23 percent a year earlier, the company said at the time.

“We understand trading has attendant risks,” Corzine said on a July 28 conference call with analysts. The focus is on “reducing dependence on one line of business,” he said.

Corzine began adding sovereign debt about a year ago, according to a company presentation. The positions accounted for 16 percent and 12 percent of net revenue in the quarters ended in March and June, the firm said.

Repurchase Agreements

MF Global, which has a market value of $235.8 million, holds $6.3 billion of sovereign debt from Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Ireland that it’s using in repurchase agreement trades with customers.

In a regulatory filing last month, MF Global said the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority required the firm to boost capital in its U.S. unit because of the repurchase transactions. On Oct. 24, Moody’s cited the European exposure as a reason it cut MF Global’s credit ratings to Baa3 from Baa2.

The repurchase transactions are financed to maturity and don’t need to be re-funded on an ongoing basis, MF spokeswoman DeSocio said.

MF Global increased its repurchase agreements 12.9 percent to $16.6 billion as of June 30, the company said in a regulatory filing.

Stake Declines

Government bonds such as those MF Global has been betting on have fallen in value this year on concern that European leaders will fail to contain a crisis of confidence that’s pushing Greece toward default. MF Global’s largest holding is $3.2 billion in Italian debt. All of the firm’s European exposure matures by December 2012.

Italy’s 6.52 percent notes due in December 2012 have dropped to 101.7 cents from 108 cents on the dollar at the end of 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The European sovereign debt would suggest there’s been a change in the risk appetite,” said Patrick O’Shaughnessy, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates Inc. in Chicago. The Moody’s “downgrade made the threat real that Corzine wouldn’t be able to make good the transition he promised,” he said.

Since MF Global reported its worst-ever quarterly results, losing $191.6 million in the three months ended in September, its stock price reached an all-time intraday low of $1.07 yesterday.

In August, Corzine bought 52,760 shares valued at $295,949. As of yesterday, the stock had declined to $89,692.

Distressed Debt

MF Global’s $325 million of 6.25 percent bonds due August 2016 reached distressed levels on Oct. 25, according to Trace, Finra’s bond-price reporting system. The debentures, which traded as low as 44.5 cents on the dollar yesterday, rebounded to 61 cents to yield 19 percent, or 17.9 percentage points over Treasuries. Spreads of more than 10 percentage points are considered distressed.

“Its bonds are trading at a small fraction of face value, so I’m not really sure it can recover,” said Darrell Duffie, a finance professor at Stanford University and a member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Financial Advisory Roundtable.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Leising in New York at mleising@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alan Goldstein at agoldstein5@bloomberg.net.




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