Economic Calendar

Friday, June 12, 2009

FX Thoughts for the Day

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services | Jun 12 09 12:37 GMT |

USD-CHF @ 1.0798/0801...Holding Long

R: 1.0811-19 / 1.0852-68 / 1.0990
S: 1.0766-44 / 1.0700 / 1.0633-26

Dollar-Swiss has risen during the day and next faces Resistance near 1.0811-19. A break of 1.0819 might look to move towards 1.10 and possibly make a double bottom on the daily candle chart. Today's close is going to be very important which could possibly chalk out the path over the next few days. We shall have to see. Our Long at 1.0764 got profited during the day.

Limit Buy Order:

  • Buy USD 10K at 1.0735, SL 1.0645, TP 1.0780

Holding:

  • USD 10K Long at 1.0695, SL 1.0730 (up from 1.0715), TP Open

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.6374/76...Indecisive at the moment

R: 1.6507 / 1.6642-80 / 1.6840
S: 1.6273-53 / 1.6014

Cable has fallen sharply during the day. Today's close might indicate the path that the pair might take over the course of the week. There's Support available at 1.6273-53 on a further fall. Referring to the note in the morning, the simple MACD is looking to come down, bringing the pair along with it. So, one has to be cautious at the moment.

On the other hand, a rise past 1.6680 is likely to be very bullish for the pair.

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.8101/03...Holding Long

R: 0.8151 / 0.8259-88 / 0.8322
S: 0.8069-56 / 0.8023-07 / 0.7928-04

In Aussie, too, today's close might give some indication of the pair going forward. Here again, there's the danger of double bottom forming on the daily candle chart. But if the Support at 0.7980 holds, the next week might see the pair retracing 0.8250 and even higher.

Holding:

  • AUD 10K Long at 0.8090, SL 0.8070 (up from 0.8010), TP 0.8140 (down from 0.8250)

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.





Read more...

Euro area Industrial Production Plunged to the Worst Since Records Started

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ecPulse.com | Jun 12 09 13:44 GMT |

We have seen at the start of the week easing pace of contractions between investors along with remarkable improvements in confidence levels, despite some weak data seen this year in the industrial sectors where the Industrial Production contracted 1.9% on the month in April. The Europeans confidence improved in the second quarter in particular after fundamentals improved significantly starting from April, with sectors picking up some activity, but markets might not take this reading into consideration because the services sectors in the sixteen nations takes a bigger part than the manufacturing sector in the GDP reading.

The contraction seen today in the Industrial Production today came worse than market expectations, falling 1.9% on the month worse than market expectations -0.4%, the year ending April contracted 21.6% coming worse the previous -19.3%, the worst since the data started.

The International Monetary Fund projections that world economy will contract 3.0% this year. Where we all know that the economy had been struggling with the prolonged downturn in the world leading economies, triggered by the anchored levels of spending on the world exports and in particulate the sixteen nations; along with terminating the levels of new investments in the euro area.

The European Central Bank projections that the growth and expansion will start taking place in the second half of 2010, but the improvement signs started to take place in the second quarter of the current year. However, the worst Credit Crisis since the Great Depression will need a prolonged time to mitigate especially we know the precipitation of this agony was the surging unemployment rates, which need years to ease down to previous levels.

Nevertheless, my dear reader I have to note that improvements are taking place even with all the pessimism found in financial markets, what is taking place now is for sure better than the vast decline seen in the prior year. As now, policy markers are just waiting until markets starts to adjust it self alone using the endless interventions taken by Central Banks across the globe.

Let seal this week with some optimism and joy because no more deterioration are taking place in the European financial markets are reforms by policy markers are taking place and new regulations are to be approved in the upcoming period.

Even with those data, the European Indices decline as off 9:14 EST, Dow Jones euro stoxx lost 0.77% or 19.37 points reaching 2505.92 levels, the French CAC 40 lost 0.53% or 17.51 points reaching 3317.43 levels and finally the German DAX Index lost 1.03% or 52.89 point reaching 5054.28 levels.

Ecpulse

disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk





Read more...

Stronger Verbal Intervention on the USD and Treasuries by Japan Helps Boost the Greenback. CAD Suffering the Most at the Moment.

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Jun 12 09 13:47 GMT |

Yet another bull/bear tug of war in equities yesterday as risk appetite seems to be at a fulcrum. Will USD benefit on swoon in confidence?

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

  • New Zealand Apr. Retail Sales rose +0.5% MoM vs. +0.2% expected, but fell -0.1% ex Autos vs. +0.4% expected
  • China May Retail Sales grew 15.2% YoY vs. 15.0% expected and 14.8% in Apr.
  • China May Industrial Production rose 8.9% YoY in May vs. 7.7% expected
  • Japan May Consumer Confidence rose to 36.3 vs. 34.0 expected and 33.2 in Apr.
  • EuroZone Apr. Industrial Production fell -21.6% YoY vs. -19.8% expected
  • US May Import Price Index rose + 1.3% MoM vs. 1.4% expected and fell - 17.6% YoY vs. -17.5% expected

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

  • US Jun. preliminary University of Michigan Confidence (1400)
  • US Treasury Secretary Geithner to Speak at G-8 News Conference (Sat 1330)
  • New Zealand Apr. Performance of Services Index (Sun 2230)
  • New Zealand Q1 Manufacturing Activity (Sun 2245)

Market Comment:

More verbal intervention out of Asia overnight as Japan's FinMin Yosano described Japan's confidence in US debt as "unshakable". But confidence in US debt was already evident yesterday with strong results from the latest treasury auction - this time the longest term 30-year US T-bonds. Strangely, the USD didn't react at all to the auction results, instead seeming to follow the ebb and flow in equity prices and then following through stronger in the European session today. There seem to be growing signs of an exhaustion in the weak USD move here, though we have yet to breach significant technical levels. The last four daily bars have seen strong moves in the opposite direction of the previous day's action.

Chinese data overnight seems to confirm the idea that the Chinese consumer is consuming and that industrial production is recovering, though anecdotal evidence suggests troubling trends and questions the strength of the recovery. The NY Times article about Chinese commodity buying yesterday noticed that lower grades of steel were being consumed in very large quantities as these are the types of metal associated with road building, etc., while higher grades associated with consumer products were seeing less demand.

The G-8 summit this weekend is unlikely to produce much of note for the FX market. There has been a reasonable noise level of late on the idea of reserve diversification into so-called IMF SDR's, but this kind of thing moves slower than molasses and the level of verbal intervention out of Asia would suggest that China and others won't want to be too loud about any diversification plans as this would be tantamount to a shooting themselves in the foot. Rather, the focus of the
G-8 most relevant for currencies is the discussion of "exit strategies", led, of course, by the German ueber-hawks, who, despite panic, worse-than-the-Great-Depression contractions in their export-related industries are worried about how the worlds' central banks are going to withdraw liquidity and extract itself from the programs that were enacted to prevent a complete meltdown of the financial system and economy.

It appears the USD strengthening today has a bit more conviction, and this is certainly supported in the comeback by US T-bonds yesterday and the correction in commodities - especially oil - today. Gold is also scratching to local new lows today, certainly confounding the old theme that no currencies are to be trusted. With six virtually unchanged days on the US equity indices having completely taken the momentum out of the shorter term bull move there, are we set up for a nasty correction now? The lack of any sizeable correction all the way up in risk appetite actually makes the risk for an ugly correction higher in our view. Look out for a dramatic volatility expansion if risk aversion develops here. ( See the AUDJPY chart below for the classic technical pattern that develops in these kinds of situations.)

Charts: EURUSD and AUDJPY

EURUSD - developing head and shoulders?

The technicals for the EURUSD chart are more than interesting if this sell-off deepens toward the 1.3800 area, which would complete the neckline for a rather compelling head and shoulders pattern. But already today we also have a key support area in the form of the 21-day moving average close to the day's lows around 1.3955. Further south, the key 1.3720 area support looms. A break there could see follow through all the way to the 200-day moving average down below 1.3400.

AUDJPY

AUDJPY is in a classic ascending wedge formation. The outlook for such a formation when it breaks is usually for a very high momentum downdraft. It is interesting to note that the latest move to new highs for the week yesterday is not holding well as of this writing. Could we see a big follow through lower if risk aversion is on the rise here again? AUDJPY should be a good proxy for risk appetite in the coming days in any case.

Saxobank

Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer

Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained.

Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment.

If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations.

The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time.

In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis.

Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.






Read more...

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Extends Rebound as Overbought Oil Pullback

Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Jun 12 09 13:10 GMT |

Dollar rebounds further on the back of deeper pull back in commodity prices. In particular, the overbought oil extended yesterday's fall from above 73 and breaches 71 level in early US session. Gold took out 940 level and dips to as low as 936 so far. USD/CAD is leading the way today by breaking 1.1163 minor resistance and should be resuming the rise from 1.0784. Such development serves as an early alert that further dollar strength is underway but focus will remain on minor support levels in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD for confirmation.

US Treasuries was helped by Japanese Finance Minister Yosano, who expressed his confidence about outlook of US Treasuries and Japan has "complete trusts" on the strong dollar policy. Treasury yields edge lower in early US session which gives some support to the Japanese yen as seen in the deep retreat in yen crosses. Nevertheless, USD/JPY remains basically in range.

Technically, an intraday low should be in place in dollar index at 79.19 with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. The three wave structure, and with 79.03 support intact, is consistent with the view that rise from 78.33 is still in progress. Above 80.63 minor resistance resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside first. Break of 81.47 will then target next key resistance at 82.63 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.33 at 82.64) to confirm completion of whole decline from 89.62.

On the data front, US Import price index rose more than expected by 1.3% mom in May. Eurozone industrial production contracted -1.9% mom, -21.6% yoy in April. New Zealand retail sales rose more than expected by 0.5% mom in Apr, but ex-auto sales unexpectedly dropped -0.1% mom. Japanese industrial production was revised up to 5.9% mom, -30.7% yoy in April. Household confidence improved from 34 to 35.7 in May. Germany WPI rose 0.1% mom, dropped -8.9% yoy in May.

In the Quarterly Bulletin, BoE analysts said that there are tentative signs that the asset-purchase program is having positive impacts on financial conditions. However, "The U.K. and global macroeconomic outlook remained highly uncertain with significant upside and downside risks." The timing of exiting from its policy of low interest rates and quantitative easing will depend on medium term inflation outlook. And, to do so, it will be possibly be through a combination of rate hikes, bond sales or by reducing supply of reserves through issuing short term BoE bills.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0962; (P) 1.1062; (R1) 1.1184; More.

USD/CAD's break of 1.1163 minor resistance indicates that pull back from 1.1289 has completed and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside. Break of 1.1289 will confirm rally resumption for 1.1475/1.1814 resistance zone next. On the downside, while some retreat might be seen, downside should be contained above 1.0947 minor support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3063 is treated as correction to impulsive rally from 0.9056 to 1.3063 and has met target support zone of 1.0297/0819 already. We're slightly favoring the case that such correction has completed at 1.0784 already. Break of mentioned 1.1475/1.1814 resistance zone will confirm this case and should at least bring strong rally to key cluster resistance at 1.2191 (61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.7084 at 1.2192). Nevertheless, a break below 1.0784 will indicate that fall from 1.3063 is still in progress, probably to 61.8% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.3063 at 1.0587 before completion.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart - Forex Newsletters, Forex Outlook, Forex Review, Forex Signal

Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.50% 0.20% -0.40% -0.20%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Apr -0.10% 0.40% 0.50%
23:01 GBP BoE Quaterly Bulletin



04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr F 5.90% 5.20% 5.20%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Apr F -30.70% -- -31.20%
05:00 JPY Households Confidence May 35.7 34 32.4
06:00 EUR German WPI M/M May 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
06:00 EUR German WPI Y/Y May -8.90% -9.00% -8.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr -1.90% -0.40% -2.00% -1.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Apr -21.60% -19.80% -20.20% -19.30%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M May 1.30% 1.10% 1.60%
14:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jun Prelim
69.2 68.7




Read more...

U.K. Stocks Declines as Mining Shares Retreat; Vedanta Drops

By Sarah Jones

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks fell, led by mining companies as Vedanta Resources Plc announced a $1 billion convertible bond issue and base metals fell.

Vedanta, India’s largest copper producer, sank 7.8 percent. Antofagasta Plc and Xstrata Plc lost more than 3 percent as investors sold commodities after recent gains. Barclays Plc slid after BlackRock Inc. agreed to buy the lender’s investment unit.

The FTSE 100 Index fell 24.37, or 0.6 percent, to 4,437.5 at 2:13 p.m. in London, leaving the measure virtually unchanged for the week, after swinging between gains and losses more than 10 times today. The FTSE All-Share Index slipped 0.6 percent today, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index added 0.7 percent in Dublin.

Vedanta fell 7.8 percent to 1,610 pence after India’s largest copper producer said it is offering $1 billion of convertible bonds to help fund expansion plans. The offer may be increased by $250 million and JPMorgan Cazenove is the sole bookrunner.

Antofagasta, owner of copper mines in Chile, declined 5.4 percent to 665.5 pence as the base metal dropped in New York and London as the dollar advanced and investors sold commodities after recent gains. Xstrata, owner of the fourth-biggest copper producer, lost 3.9 percent to 744.5 pence.

Nickel, tin, lead and zinc also retreated on the London Metal Exchange.

Barclays lost 3.9 percent to 292.75 pence after the bank announced that BlackRock agreed to buy Barclays Global Investors for $13.5 billion to become the world’s largest money manager.

The U.K. lender will hold a 19.9 percent stake in the combined company. Financing will include $2.8 billion from the sale of equity to institutional investors and as much as $2 billion in loans from Barclays and other banks.

The following stocks also gained or fell in the U.K. market. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

AstraZeneca Plc (AZN LN) rallied 81 pence, or 3.2 percent, to 2,598 as UBS AG added the drugmaker to its “European focus list” and raised its price estimate in the shares by 11 percent to 3,100 pence.

Berkeley Group Holdings Plc (BKG LN) dropped 28 pence, or 3.5 percent, to 767 after Nomura Holdings Inc. today placed 4.5 million shares of the British Homebuilder.

Earlier this week, Citigroup Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG sold 144 million pounds ($237 million) worth of shares that were own by Saudi billionaire Maan al-Sanea’s Saad Group.

BT Group Plc (BT/A LN) rallied 4.4 pence, or 4.7 percent, to 97.4 after Bank of America Corp. upgraded Britain’s largest phone company to “buy” from “neutral,” citing a “new era of cost control and pricing discipline.”

GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK LN) increased 41 pence, or 3.9 percent, to 1,099.5 as the World Health Organization declared the first pandemic since 1968. Glaxo today said it said it started developing an adjuvanted vaccine against the pandemic flu strain known as A(H1N1).

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

European Stocks Retreat; Total, BHP Billiton Slip, Glaxo Gains

By Adam Haigh

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell as declines by commodity producers and concern the three-month surge by the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index has outpaced prospects for earnings overshadowed a rally in health-care shares.

Total SA and BHP Billiton Ltd. led basic-resources stocks lower as oil and base metals slipped. GlaxoSmithKline Plc jumped 4 percent as the World Health Organization declared the first influenza pandemic since 1968. Li & Fung Ltd., the biggest supplier of clothes and toys to Wal-Mart Stores Inc., rose 6.2 percent on higher retail sales in China.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 slid 0.3 percent to 214.17 at 12:43 p.m. in London, trimming its fourth straight weekly gain to 1.6 percent. The gauge has surged 36 percent since March 9 on speculation the $12.8 trillion pledged by the U.S. government and Federal Reserve will end the first global recession since World War II.


“There are lots of people who have missed the upturn in equities and there is the end of the quarter looming so I think we’ll see some buying there,” Christian Gattiker, head of research and strategy at Bank Julius Baer & Co. in Zurich, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. We are likely to see “some more difficult markets during the summer lull in July.”

The European index is now valued at 25.5 times the profits of its companies, the most expensive level since 2004, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show. Corporate earnings in the region will rebound by 15 percent in 2010 after a 25 percent tumble this year, according to strategists at UBS AG.

‘Earnings Momentum’

“European earnings momentum is turning,” London-based strategist Nick Nelson wrote in a note. “We are still seeing more downgrades than upgrades, but the rate of downgrades is slowing.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent, led by consumer and financial shares. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 1.6 percent, closing above 10,000 for the first time since Oct. 7.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slid 0.4 percent. Confidence among U.S. consumers probably rose for a fourth straight month in June, economists said before a private report at 10 a.m. Washington time. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment increased to 69.5, the highest level in nine months, according to the median estimate of 62 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Commodity Producers

Basic-resources companies led declines in Europe as copper and oil retreated. Total SA, Europe’s third-largest oil company, slid 2 percent to 40.725 euros. BHP, the world’s largest mining company, sank 2.6 percent to 1,478 pence.

Crude futures dropped for the first time in four days in New York and copper sank as much as 2.5 percent in London.

Vedanta Resources Plc dropped 6.6 percent to 1,631 pence after India’s largest producer of the metal announced the sale of $1 billion in convertible bonds. Antofagasta Plc, the copper producer controlled by Chile’s Luksic family, slipped 4.5 percent to 672 pence.

Health-care companies posted the steepest gain among 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600. The WHO yesterday moved its alert on swine flu, which has caused mostly mild disease outbreaks on four continents, to the top of its six-stage pandemic scale on evidence the virus is spreading in communities outside the Americas.

Glaxo, Sanofi

Glaxo surged 4 percent to 1,101 pence, the biggest intraday increase in six weeks, after announcing it has started development of an adjuvanted vaccine against the pandemic flu strain known as A(H1N1). Sanofi-Aventis SA advanced 3.4 percent to 47.81 euros after saying it’s committed to developing its own shot against the virus.

AstraZeneca Plc, the U.K.’s second-biggest drugmaker, gained 3.3 percent to 2,600 pence after being added to UBS’s list of “key calls.”

Telecommunications stocks were second-best performers as BT Group Plc added 5.2 percent to 97.8 pence. Bank of America Corp. raised its recommendation on the U.K.’s largest phone company to “buy” from “neutral.”

The rally in so-called cyclical shares, which has sent European stocks tied to the economy “through the roof,” may end as valuations surpass those of companies whose earnings aren’t as linked to growth, strategists at Axa Investment Managers said this week.

Li & Fung climbed 6.2 percent to HK$23.20 in Hong Kong. China’s retail sales jumped 15.2 percent in May, while Japan’s household sentiment rose to a 14-month high, government reports showed today. The two Asian nations have announced spending plans worth a total $743 billion to jumpstart economic growth. Retail sales also climbed in New Zealand.

Barclays, BlackRock

Barclays Plc slipped 3 percent to 295.5 pence after BlackRock Inc. agreed to buy the U.K. bank’s investment unit for $13.5 billion to become the world’s largest money manager. Barclays will hold a 19.9 percent stake in the combined company. Financing will include $2.8 billion from the sale of equity to institutional investors and as much as $2 billion in loans from Barclays and other banks. BlackRock increased 1.7 percent to $185.62 in Germany.

The rally in stocks is leaving Switzerland behind. The Swiss Market Index of the country’s 20 largest companies has fallen 0.9 percent this year, the worst among the world’s 20 biggest markets in developed nations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s also the most expensive in western Europe, with the SMI trading at an average price of 2 times the assets of its companies.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net




Read more...

Swiss Stocks Worst in Developed World as Rally Bypasses Nestle

By Daniela Silberstein and Julie Cruz

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- The rally in global stocks prompted by investor expectations for an economic recovery is leaving Switzerland behind.

The benchmark Swiss Market Index of the country’s 20 largest companies has fallen 0.9 percent this year, the worst among the world’s 20 biggest markets in developed nations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s also the most expensive in western Europe, with the SMI trading at an average price of 2 times the assets of its companies.

Switzerland’s so-called defensive stocks, which allowed the market to avoid the worst of last year’s 42 percent rout in the MSCI World Index, are holding the country’s equities back this year as investors look for companies that benefit the most in a recovering economy. About 57 percent of the SMI consists of food and health-care stocks, led by Nestle SA, which makes up 22 percent of the market.

“The SMI will continue to underperform as the inflow is into cyclical segments and out of defensives,” said Matthias Fankhauser, a Zurich-based fund manager at Clariden Leu AG, which oversees about $100 billion. Other European indexes “are predestined to benefit,” he said, citing Germany’s DAX.

Fankhauser has cut his holdings of pharmaceutical stocks and is “overweight” so-called cyclical shares such as steelmakers and construction companies whose profits are most tied to swings in the economy.

Novartis, Roche

The SMI, which gets 33 percent of its value from Basel, Switzerland-based drugmakers Novartis AG and Roche Holding AG, rose 0.9 percent to 5,483.85 yesterday. The gauge has gained 38 percent in dollar terms since the MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries began its rebound from a 13-year low on March 9, trailing the global measure’s 45 percent rise.

Every other developed market among the world’s 20 largest has advanced in 2009, with Norway’s OBX Index posting the biggest gain at 41 percent. The five largest emerging markets -- China, India, Brazil, South Korea and Taiwan -- have all surged more than 26 percent.

The only markets worse than Switzerland among 90 indexes tracked by Bloomberg are in developing nations. Ghana’s All- Share Index has lost 37 percent, while the OMX Riga Index has dropped 15 percent in Latvia, where the government is fighting to stave off a devaluation of the lats.

“If the economy stabilizes, cyclicals will benefit and the Swiss market will be left behind,” said Peter Braendle, who oversees $50 billion in European equities at Swisscanto Asset Management in Zurich.

Italy, Germany

Italy’s FTSE MIB Index, which gets about 4.1 percent of its value from makers of drugs, food and household products, surged 83 percent in dollar terms for the biggest advance in western Europe during the three-month rally, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Germany’s DAX, which has added 55 percent, gets about 4.5 percent of its value from health-care, food and household product companies, Bloomberg data show.

Companies in Switzerland’s SMI trade at 2 times book value, or their assets minus liabilities, the most expensive in western Europe, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The index’s price is 1.5 times the combined sales of its companies, also the highest level in the region.

The SMI is valued at 26.6 times the profits of its companies, 29 percent above the five-year average. Only the DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 are more expensive in Europe, with ratios of 27.3 and 31.9, respectively, Bloomberg data show.

‘Slow Winner’

For Huntington Financial Advisors’ Madelynn Matlock, it’s worth paying for Swiss stocks with the fallout from the global recession still battering earnings across the region. While profits at 2,364 companies in western Europe tracked by Bloomberg dropped 49 percent last quarter, earnings per share at health-care companies slipped 2.5 percent. Income for makers of so-called consumer staples declined 9.9 percent.

“The Swiss index is more of a steady index and a slow winner,” said Matlock, a Cincinnati-based fund manager at Huntington, which has $15 billion. “If there is one thing we’ve learned in the last year though, it’s that you don’t want to have all stocks in your portfolio aimed at gaining the most.”

The Swiss National Bank is forecasting a contraction of as much as 3 percent in 2009 for the domestic economy, which would be the worst slump in 34 years. The median estimate of 10 economists in a Bloomberg survey is for a decline of 2 percent.

Nestle’s sales in the first three months of this year unexpectedly fell for a second straight quarter as consumers bought cheaper alternatives to the Vevey, Switzerland-based company’s San Pellegrino and Perrier bottled waters.

Nestle Earnings

Nestle will post a 43 percent drop in net profit this year, the first decline since 2003, according to the average of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The shares have underperformed the MSCI World by 34 percentage points in the three-month rally, after beating the MSCI World by 26 percentage points during the bear market that ended in March, Bloomberg data show.

Earnings at Novartis, Europe’s second-largest drugmaker, will be 30 percent lower than in 2007, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Profits for Roche, the world’s biggest maker of cancer medicines, will be 3.2 percent below 2007’s level, the data show.

“The SMI is clearly at a disadvantage,” said Urs Eilinger, Zurich-based chief investment officer at Infidar Investment Advisory Ltd., which oversees $3.2 billion. “If you play on an economic recovery, the SMI will underperform.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net; Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Emerging Equity Funds Post 14th Week of Net Inflows, EPFR Says

By Garfield Reynolds

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market equity funds received $3.4 billion in the week to June 10, the 14th-straight week of net inflows, led by $1.65 billion invested in vehicles focusing on Asia excluding Japan, EPFR Global said.

Investors have poured a net $30.3 billion into emerging- market stock funds since the second week of March, exceeding the $11.8 billion in net outflows for that period from developed- market funds buy equities in the U.S., Europe and Japan, EPFR said.

China funds attracted $404 million in the week to June 10, the investment tracker said in an e-mailed statement. Globally, equity funds received $6.8 billion in the week. Money-market funds had net outflows of $11.3 billion and investors have now removed $104.4 billion this year from such funds, EPFR said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Garfield Reynolds in Sydney at greynolds1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Citigroup Bailout Pays Taxpayers Three Times as Much as S&P 500

By Michael J. Moore and Jeff Kearns

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. taxpayers have reaped a 7.5 percent return on the $45 billion used to rescue Citigroup Inc., more than three times as much as if the money had been invested in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit, summoned by Congress in February to explain his bank’s use of the funds, vowed to “make this a profitable investment for the American people.” The return since the government first purchased a stake in the bank on Oct. 28, which includes dividends, compares with 2.4 percent for the S&P 500 on that basis.

“Anything that they make is positive,” said Frederic Dickson, who manages $17 billion as chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. “After making a huge investment, that seems, on the surface, like a reasonable return for taxpayers.”

The government pumped $25 billion in rescue funds into the New York-based bank in October and another $20 billion a month later. Dividends on preferred shares linked to that money total about $1.6 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Returns have also been boosted by the tripling of the stock price since March, which will benefit the government through the planned conversion of as much as $25 billion of its preferred shares into common stock.

The conversion will give the government a 34 percent stake in the bank, which will also exchange as much as $33 billion of preferred securities not held by the government.

Share Conversion

The difference between the $3.25 conversion price on the preferred share swap and the closing price of $3.48 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday would yield a profit of $1.77 billion on a full conversion. The transaction will eliminate the dividend, which ranges from 5 percent to 8 percent.

Citigroup racked up more than $100 billion of credit losses and writedowns during the global credit contraction that began in 2007 and is selling businesses and reducing head count to preserve capital.

The government’s $45 billion investment in Bank of America Corp. has been less lucrative. The Charlotte, North Carolina- based company has paid $1.1 billion in dividends on the Treasury’s preferred shares, CEO Kenneth Lewis said yesterday in testimony before the House Oversight Committee in Washington yesterday. That means taxpayers have received 2.5 percent on their $45 billion bailout of the bank through the Troubled Asset Relief Program as of the end of the first quarter.

“The returns came a little bit quicker than one would have expected,” said William Fitzpatrick, who helps manage $1.6 billion at Optique Capital Management in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. “It looked like the end of the world three months ago, but the truth is once our financial system stabilized the opportunities were enormous, and I think the taxpayer will participate in those types of returns.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net; Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

BlackRock Seeks to Balance Index, Active Funds With BGI Deal

By Christopher Condon

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- BlackRock Inc.’s purchase of Barclays Global Investors for a record $13.5 billion is the first attempt by a top-ranked fund manager to unite two opposing investment philosophies.

Managers at New York-based BlackRock, who oversee $1.31 trillion, select investments based on research, and have a reputation for spotting value in hard-to-sell fixed-income securities. BGI, based in San Francisco, has $1.5 trillion in assets, mostly in funds whose holdings are determined by the indexes they are designed to mimic.

“If you want to be a dominant money manager, you have to be agnostic about style and strategy,” Dan Culloton, an analyst at fund research firm Morningstar Inc. in Chicago, said in an interview. “You have to offer everything a potential client might want.”

The debate over which style produces better returns for investors over the long term has carried on since index-based funds first appeared in the mid-1970s. Money managers focus primarily on one approach or the other. Active managers look for companies they expect to beat the market. Passive investors try to track benchmarks such as the Standard & Poor’s 500.

“For BlackRock, which is renowned in fixed-income investing, this will be a significant departure,” Geoff Bobroff, president of Bobroff Consulting Inc., an East Greenwich, Rhode Island, firm that advises mutual-fund companies, said in an interview.

There has never been a marriage of this scale between managers with differing investing styles, he said.

Topping State Street

BlackRock, which acquired Merrill Lynch & Co.’s asset- management business in 2006, will become the world’s biggest money manager with BGI. The combined company, with more than $2.7 trillion under management, will dwarf Boston-based rivals State Street Corp., which oversaw $1.44 trillion as of Dec. 31, and Fidelity Investments, with $1.25 trillion.

BlackRock’s Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink called the deal a “transformational transaction” in a conference call with reporters.

BlackRock will pay $6.6 billion in cash and the rest in stock for Barclays Global Investors, the company said today in a statement. Barclays will hold a 19.9 percent stake in the combined company. Financing will include $2.8 billion from the sale of equity to unnamed institutional investors and as much as $2 billion in loans from Barclays and other banks.

Big Enough World

The new BlackRock may thrive if Fink can combine sales efforts without forcing too much integration between the investment-management operations, said Scott Burns, an analyst at Morningstar.

“The world is big enough for both,” Burns said in an interview. “Although you don’t want to put someone used to active managers in charge of passive.”

One risk of the deal is losing customers as BlackRock seeks to fold in BGI, investment consultants said.

Marc Friedberg, a managing director at Santa Monica, California-based Wilshire Associates Inc., said any large merger between asset managers can make big clients of both firms nervous.

“It might spark getting put on a watch list, and it can slow down a firm’s pipeline of new business, especially in alternative investments, until they see what is the outcome,” Friedberg said in an interview.

He said investors will watch for changes in personnel and the processes they follow in handling clients and their money.

“Those are two major red flags -- people and processes. If those are being changed it can be viewed as a negative and cause departures,” he said.

Beating Indexes

Diversified U.S. equity index funds declined 38 percent in 2008, edging out their active peers, which fell 39 percent. That helped persuade more investors to move to passive investing.

Index funds attracted $34 billion in net deposits last year while all U.S.-registered stock and bond mutual funds lost $230 billion in redemptions. Exchange-traded funds, which also follow indexes and trade throughout the day like stocks, added $177 billion through new sales.

Active funds have performed better so far this year. Diversified active U.S. equity funds returned an average 10 percent through June 10, compared with a gain of 7.3 percent for diversified equity index funds.

Index and exchange-traded funds had a combined $1.14 trillion in assets at Dec. 31, or 18 percent of the U.S. fund industry. That compares with 11 percent in 2003, according to data compiled by the Investment Company Institute in Washington.

Vanguard Group Inc. founder John Bogle opened the first index mutual fund, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, in 1976. He believed index funds would outperform most active competitors because of their lower management fees and trading costs. State Street opened the first ETF in 1993.

Ivy League Endorsement

Yale University’s investment chief David Swensen, the top- ranked college endowment officer in the past decade, endorsed index funds for individual investors because they provide diversification and low fees.

“They’re a low-cost way of getting exposure to the market,” said Swensen, 55, in a May 22 interview with the “Consuelo Mack WealthTrack” television show. In the mutual- fund industry, the quality of management “is not particularly high and you pay an extraordinarily high price for that not- very-good management,” he said.

Index and ETF companies preserved more of their assets than active investors in recent years as markets fell. In the three years ended Dec. 31, BGI’s assets, excluding money-market funds, declined 18 percent. The S&P 500 Index fell 28 percent during the period. State Street, the second-biggest index-based investor, saw assets dip 2.8 percent. Fidelity, which has about 90 percent of its mutual fund-money in active strategies, saw those assets fall 34 percent.

Fund Inflows

State Street and BGI have both focused on providing index- based investing for institutional clients and ETFs for retail customers, helping to attract inflows during the decline in financial markets. Fidelity, which continues to embrace active management, has suffered outflows. Its stock and bond funds have seen an estimated $1.7 billion in net inflows this year through April, according to Morningstar. They lost $32 billion in net withdrawals last year, according to Fidelity.

Index funds charge fees averaging $81 per $10,000 invested, compared with $137 for active funds, according to Morningstar. ETFs charge $56 per $10,000.

“Passive strategies have been gaining inexorably over the years as people realize the benefits of their low cost and diversification,” Morningstar’s Culloton said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Condon in Boston at ccondon4@bloomberg.net





Read more...

COM DEV, Le Chateau, Patheon Inc.: Canadian Equity

By Matt Townsend

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual moves in Canadian trading tomorrow. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

COM DEV International Ltd. (CDV CN): The maker of satellite systems posted second-quarter earnings of 7 Canadian cents a share, meeting the average analysts’ estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Le Chateau Inc. (CTU/A CN): The apparel retailer reported first-quarter earnings of 21 Canadian cents a share, compared with 22 cents a year earlier.

Patheon Inc. (PTI CN): The drug manufacturer will report second-quarter results. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 3 Canadian cents a share.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matt Townsend in New York at mtownsend9@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

ArcSight, Ezcorp, Rambus, Yahoo!: U.S. Equity Market

By Eric Martin

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual moves in U.S. trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

ArcSight Inc. (ARST US): The developer of computer security software forecast first-quarter adjusted profit of 3 to 8 cents a share, trailing the 9-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Ezcorp Inc. (EZPW US): The short-term cash lender cut its third-quarter earnings forecast, saying it expects profit of 29 to 31 cents a share, less than its previous prediction and the average analyst estimate of 34 cents.

Rambus Inc. (RMBS US): The designer of high-speed computer- memory chips is nearing a settlement to end a two-year-old European Union antitrust probe, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO US): The owner of the second-ranked U.S. Internet search engine named former General Electric Co. executive Tim Morse as its chief financial officer.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

U.S. Stock Futures Fall; Baker Hughes, Freeport-McMoRan Drop

By Daniela Silberstein

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may retreat from a seven-month high, as commodity producers slid with oil and metals.

Baker Hughes Inc. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. dropped more than 1.7 percent as crude, copper and lead decreased. National Semiconductor Corp. slipped 2.8 percent as Chief Executive Officer Brian Halla said the computer-chip market shows no signs of rebounding yet.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in September dropped 0.4 percent to 934.9 at 12:44 p.m. in London, indicating the measure may trim its fourth straight weekly advance. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 0.3 percent to 8,676 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures slipped 0.3 percent to 1,487.

Shares in Asia climbed for a third day, while European equities dropped.

“The upward potential is limited but it’s not looking bad,” said Rudolf Buxtorf, who manages about $114 million at RBS Coutts Bank in Zurich. “A bit of a decline would be deserved after the recent rally.”

U.S. stocks rose yesterday, sending the S&P 500 to a seven- month high, as a drop in Treasury yields eased concern higher borrowing costs will stifle an economic recovery and a rally in oil lifted energy shares.

The S&P 500 has rebounded 40 percent from its 12-year low in March after the government and Federal Reserve pledged $12.8 trillion to end the first global recession since World War II. The index trades at about 14.9 times the earnings of its companies, near the seven-month high of 15.2 reached in May and below the 19.9 average over the last decade.

Economy Watch

Consumer confidence probably rose for a fourth straight month on signs the worst recession in at least five decades may end this year, economists said before a report today.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment probably climbed to 69.5 percent in June, the highest reading since September, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The report is scheduled for 10 a.m. in Washington.

A Labor Department report scheduled for 8:30 a.m. may show import prices rose 1.4 percent in May, following a 1.6 percent gain in April, as oil prices increased, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Baker Hughes, the world’s third-largest oilfield-services provider, lost 1.7 percent to $41.62. Schlumberger Ltd., the biggest, declined 1.4 percent to $61.32. Crude oil retreated for the first time in four days as a record plunge in European industrial production prompted speculation that hopes for an economic recovery are premature.

Freeport, National Semiconductor

Freeport-McMoRan, the largest publicly traded copper producer, slipped 1.9 percent to $59.30. Copper dropped in New York and London and aluminum also declined as the dollar advanced and investors sold commodities after recent gains.

National Semiconductor, which supplies the top five mobile- phone manufacturers, fell 2.8 percent to $14.07.

“I don’t think anyone in this industry is positive enough to say that we’ve recovered,” Halla said.

BlackRock Inc. climbed 1.5 percent to $185.49 in Germany after agreeing to buy Barclays Plc’s investment unit for $13.5 billion to create a company overseeing $2.7 trillion in assets, more than the Federal Reserve.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net.





Read more...