Economic Calendar

Friday, January 16, 2009

Daily Technical Strategist

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jan 16 09 12:56 GMT |

Today's Focus: EURUSD & GBPUSD

  • EURUSD: Maintains Below The 1.3298 level.
  • GBPUSD:Nearer Term Corrective Recovery Builds Up.

EURUSD

A hammer candle (bottom reversal signal)was formed Thursday after EUR gave back part of its intra day losses to close at 1.3160.As long as the pair continues to trade below the 1.3298/1.3313 zone, representing its Jan 06'09 low/Oct 30'08 high or even within its falling channel, odds are for the continuation of its decline off the 1.4719 level. Downside targets are located at its Dec 04'08 low at 1.3081 with a turn below there putting EUR in position to move towards the 1.2551 level, its Dec 04'08 low and finally its YTD low at 1.2330.Conversely, the 1.3298/1.3313 zone comes in as the initial resistance accompanied by the 1.3531 level, its Oct 20'08 high with a break through there extending gains higher towards the 1.3785 level, its Oct 09'08 high. On the whole, with the pair sustaining its break below the 1.3298 level and trading within its established falling channel, further downside gains are envisaged.

Support Comments
1.3081 Nov 25'08 high
1.2551 Dec 04'08 low
1.2330 YTD low


Resistance Comments
1.3298 Dec 11'08 high/former range top
1.3531 Oct 20'08 high
1.3785 Oct 09'08 high

GBPUSD

GBP has embarked on a corrective recover y closing higher for a second-day in a row after touching a low of 1.4471 ON Jan 13'09.Despite this price action, GBP's overall medium to longer term downside weakness remains in force. With that said, a follow through was seen in early morning trading today suggesting further upside gains towards the 1.4831 level, its Jan 01'08 ahead of the 1.5000 level followed by the 1.5374 level printed on Jan 08'08.In order for the reduction of the current downside pressure to be seen, a break and close above the 1.5374 level will have to occur. The daily RSI has turned higher supporting further upside gains. On the downside, supports are located at the 1.4558 level, its Nov 13'08 low and the 1.4470 level, its Dec 04'08 low. Below there will leave the pair aiming at its YTD low at 1.4352.All in all, while the 1.5374 level remains as resistance, GBP should recapture the 1.4352 level or even see the resumption of its longer term weakness triggered off the 2.1168 level in Nov'07

Support Comments
1.4558 Nov 13'08 low
1.4470 Dec 04'08 low
1.4352 YTD low


Resistance Comments
1.4831 Jan 01'09 high
1.5000 Psycho level
1.5250/65 Nov 19'08 high/Oct 24'08 low

Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com

This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report


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London Session Recap

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Forex.com | Jan 16 09 13:31 GMT |

Risk aversion was back in vogue as the near $140 billion announced bailout of a large US bank was taken as a major positive and a step forward in stabilizing the banking system. Stocks across the globe were bid with Europe adding nearly 3% across the board and US futures up almost 2% on the follow. In FX, the flavor was higher EUR and better bid yen crosses.

EUR/USD rallied about 50 pips in London trading and was sitting near 1.3270 ahead of the NY open. The pair should see good resistance into 1.3340 now and we would focus lower on a break under the 100hr SMA which currently sits by the 1.3230 mark. EUR/JPY jumped more than 80 points towards 120.20/30 and USD/JPY added a more modest 30 pips into the 90.50/60 zone. USD/CAD shed about -50 pips to 1.2370/80 as crude oil rallied above the near term $35/bbl pivot.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) prev est

  • 1/16 13:30 GMT US Consumer Price Index (MoM) DEC -1.7% -0.9%
  • 1/16 13:30 GMT US CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) DEC 0.0% 0.1%
  • 1/16 14:00 GMT US Total Net TIC Flows NOV $286.3B - -
  • 1/16 14:15 GMT US Industrial Production DEC -0.6% -1.0%
  • 1/16 15:00 GMT US Michigan Confidence JAN P 60.1 59.0
  • 1/16 17:00 GMT SZ SNB Vice President Hildebrand Holds Speech
  • 1/16 17:15 GMT US Fed's Lacker Speaks on U.S. Economy

Forex.com
http://www.forex.com

DISCLAIMER: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase of sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.






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U.S. ‘Bad Bank’ Plan Gets Momentum to Revive Lending

By Robert Schmidt and Craig Torres

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Renewed questions about U.S. banks’ viability are pushing regulators toward a new plan that would remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets, in what may become the biggest effort yet to unfreeze lending.

President-elect Barack Obama’s advisers see an increasingly grave banking crisis and are considering proposals far more sweeping than any steps that have been taken so far, according to people who’ve discussed the outlook with them.

“They need to do something dramatic,” said Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and member of the Group of Thirty counselors on financial matters, a panel that includes Treasury Secretary-designate Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers, incoming director of the National Economic Council.

Federal Reserve officials are focusing on the option of setting up a so-called bad bank that would acquire hundreds of billions of dollars of troubled securities now held by lenders. That may allow banks to reduce write-offs, free up capital and begin to increase lending. Paul Miller, a bank analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Virginia, estimates that financial institutions need as much as $1.2 trillion in new aid.

Other steps that may be under consideration include providing further guarantees for toxic assets that remain on the banks’ books, as officials did for Citigroup Inc. in November and with a $118 billion backstop for Bank of America Corp. today, or purchasing selected investments. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair yesterday played down the alternative of nationalizing lenders.

Slump in Stocks

A move could come soon after Obama is sworn in on Jan. 20. Adding urgency to the deliberations is a deepening slide in financial shares. Citigroup yesterday sank below the level it reached when regulators mounted a rescue of the lender in November. Bank of America fell to an 18-year low as the company sought more aid from the government.

“A lot of the trouble in all this is that once you got into a financial mess, people don’t know where the bodies are buried,” Paul Krugman, the Princeton University professor who won this year’s Nobel Prize for economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “People think ‘Who knows what I’m getting into?’” by lending or trading with others, he said.

Bank Losses

Citigroup Inc. today posted an $8.29 billion fourth-quarter loss, completing its worst year, as the credit crisis eroded mortgage-bond prices and customers missed more loan payments. The company plans to split in two.

Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank by assets, posted its first loss since 1991 and cut the dividend. The fourth-quarter loss was $1.79 billion, or 48 cents a share.

The Senate yesterday voted to allow the release of the remaining $350 billion from the Treasury’s financial-rescue fund, giving Obama a source of funds to implement a new bank program.

The departing Bush administration used most of the first $350 billion of the Troubled Asset Relief Program for buying stakes in banks. The declines in bank shares show that the strategy has failed to shore up the banking system’s solvency.

‘Necessary’ Initiative

A big new initiative “is going to be necessary,” said Peter Wallison, who was U.S. Treasury general counsel under President Ronald Reagan and is now a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “Once they have stable capital, once they feel they are not going to be run on by people who doubt the quality of their capital position, they will start lending.”

Obama’s Treasury could use much of the funds to back a bigger Fed campaign to buy the illiquid assets, Wallison said. The FDIC, which has emergency authority to take “any action” with insured deposit-taking firms deemed necessary to counter “adverse effects on economic conditions or financial stability,” could also play a role.

In the case of Bank of America and Citigroup, U.S. officials opted to insure the illiquid assets on their balance sheets, without offloading them into any special units.

‘Growing Burden’

“Troubled assets continue to mount at insured commercial banks and savings institutions, placing a growing burden on industry earnings,” John Bovenzi, the FDIC’s chief operating officer, told lawmakers Jan. 13. It’s “vitally important” to set up a program “capable of managing these assets until the economy and the banking industry are stabilized,” he said.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke called for “a comprehensive plan to stabilize the financial system and restore normal flows of credit,” in a Jan. 13 speech in London. He outlined options including a bad bank, “which would purchase assets from financial institutions in exchange for cash and equity.”

Bernanke was in Europe for meetings with his counterparts from the world’s largest central banks to discuss the state of the global economy and financial markets. He met with U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown the next day.

European policy makers are also struggling to restart lending in their region, with some considering purchases of toxic assets. The U.K. and Germany this week announced new programs to guarantee loans to companies.

‘Time Bombs’

“Buying toxic assets from banks is a good thing because I think confidence comes back into the banking system when you are certain -- or more certain -- that you have no time bombs ticking,” said Josef Ackermann, chairman of the Institute of International Finance, the Washington-based group that includes most of the world’s large banks.

Ackermann, who is also head of Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, said “the real challenge here” is determining the price at which to remove the assets. He added, in a conference call with reporters Jan. 14, that Deutsche Bank doesn’t need to unload illiquid assets into such a bad bank.

Switzerland in October relied on the mechanism to aid UBS AG. The Swiss National Bank and UBS set up a special unit to buy as much as $60 billion in toxic investments from UBS. Zurich- based UBS provided $6 billion in capital, which will be used as first protection against losses. It isn’t clear how stockholders or bond owners would be treated in a bad-bank scenario. In the case of UBS in Switzerland, there was no direct impact on either.

Paulson Abandoned

In the U.S., the initial proposal for TARP was to buy hard- to-value assets such as subprime residential mortgage-backed securities, debt linked to commercial mortgages and collateralized debt obligations. Departing Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson abandoned it in favor of capital injections as a faster method of deploying the funds.

A more radical alternative would be the nationalization of some banks. Sweden used that option during a crisis in the 1990s. It took over two of the most troubled banks, Nordbanken AB, now part of Nordea AB, and Gota Bank, which later became a unit of Nordbanken. In addition, the government created a bad bank that bought troubled assets at a discount, while leaving financial institutions to manage their more-liquid holdings.

Bair indicated government takeovers aren’t being actively considered. “I’d be very surprised if that happened,” she told reporters in New York.

The Obama economic team has been signaling plans to take bold action soon after taking office on Jan. 20 to address the problems in the banking industry.

‘Act With Urgency’

“We must act with urgency to stabilize and repair the financial system,” Summers said in a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid yesterday.

Summers declined to specify how Obama will use the TARP, except for a mortgage-foreclosure prevention effort of $50 billion to $100 billion.

“How do you use this next round of money in the most efficient and effective way? This is a Rubik’s Cube of a problem where there is no easy solution,” said John Douglas, a former FDIC general counsel who is now a partner at the Paul, Hastings, Janofsky & Walker law firm in Washington. “Doing something sooner rather than later to instill confidence is important.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Schmidt in Washington at rschmidt5@bloomberg.net; Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net





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European November Exports Drop Most in Eight Years

By Ben Sills

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- European exports declined at the fastest pace in more than eight years in November as the global economic downturn throttled demand for the region’s cars, trucks and planes.

The euro area exported 123 billion euros ($162.7 billion) of goods and services, compared with 129.1 billion euros in October, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today, citing seasonally adjusted data. That 4.7 percent drop was the biggest since June 2000. The trade deficit widened for the first time in four months to 4.9 billion euros as imports fell 2.5 percent.

The collapse of foreign demand helped persuade the European Central Bank to reduce interest rates yesterday after earlier signaling it was more likely to leave borrowing costs unchanged. The central bank will have to cut its forecast for a 0.5 percent contraction in the euro-area economy this year at its March meeting, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said.

“The export-dependent euro-area members are taking a hit,” Gabriel Stein, an economist at Lombard Street Research in London, said in a research note yesterday. “The rapid deterioration in the euro-area outlook has taken the ECB by surprise.”

The economy of Germany, the world’s largest exporter, may have contracted as much as 2 percent in the fourth quarter as the credit crisis hurt shipments abroad, the Federal Statistics Office said this week. That would be the biggest slump in more than two decades.

German Manufacturers

German manufacturers are suffering as the global financial turmoil sucks in the economies of eastern Europe. MAN AG, the Munich-based truckmaker that generates almost three-quarters of its sales through exports, saw orders decline last year, Chief Executive Officer Hakan Samuelsson told investors this week.

The euro region’s energy trade deficit jumped to 260.5 billion euros in the first 10 months of 2008, compared with 185.5 billion euros in the year-earlier period. The overall deficit with Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil producer, reached 32.8 billion euros in the January-October period, after 24.5 billion euros as imports surged 24 percent. Imports from China rose 7 percent to 151.6 billion euros.

Renault SA, France’s second-biggest carmaker, reported a 29 percent drop in December sales, while Louis Gallois, chief executive officer of Airbus SAS’s parent company European Aeronautic, Defence & Space, said Europe’s biggest planemaker will miss its target to deliver 21 A380 planes this year.

Economic Crisis

“The economic crisis is catching up with us and we will have to draw conclusions for our own production,” Gallois told Radio Classique this week.

Unemployment in the single-currency area rose in November to 7.8 percent, the most in almost two years, while confidence among manufacturers plunged to the lowest on record in December. The series dates back to 1985.

“The euro area is experiencing a significant slowdown largely related to the effect of the intensification of financial turmoil,” Trichet said after ECB policy makers reduced the bank’s benchmark rate to 2 percent, matching its lowest ever.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sills in Madrid at bsills@bloomberg.net





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Solbes Says Spain Faces Deepest Recession in 50 Years

By Ben Sills

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said Spain faces its deepest recession in half a century.

Spain’s economy will contract 1.6 percent this year, Solbes said today. That compares with a median forecast of minus 1.8 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists. In July, the minister predicted a 1 percent expansion.

“Problems are still appearing and they are getting more and more serious,” said Antonio Argandona, a professor at Iese business school in Madrid. “The recovery plan may be much more expensive than they think and it may not even work.”

Solbes has pledged some 90 billion euros ($120 billion) of stimulus measures in a battle to hold the economy together as the fallout from the housing crash and the credit crunch rips through its manufacturing and service industries. A year ago, Solbes was preparing to report the biggest budget surplus in Spanish history; now the government may be about to have its debt rating cut by Standard & Poor’s.

“The financial crisis that exists at the moment at the global level has changed the scenario very drastically,” Solbes said. In 2009, “we’re going to live through the most difficult moments of the crisis.”

Activity in services contracted at the fastest pace on record in November, while manufacturing posted its biggest monthly decline in December, according to surveys of purchasing managers. The number of jobless claimants jumped by almost a million last year, sending unemployment to 13.4 percent by November, compared with Solbes’s July forecast for 10.4 percent.

Government Debt

Solbes said the economy shrank during the second half of 2008, confirming the country is already in a recession. With tax revenue plummeting, S&P this week said it may cut Spain’s AAA rating for long-term government debt.

Spain’s budget deficit will peak at 5.8 percent of gross domestic product this year and then narrow to 3.9 percent in 2011, Solbes said. Unemployment this year will reach 15.9 percent before falling to 14.9 percent in 2011.

Solbes faced criticism from political opponents in Spain for pushing through a budget based on the 1 percent forecast even as he admitted it was out of date. In December 2007, he said that the economy would grow by 3 percent this year, even as the U.S. mortgage meltdown shut off the flood of credit that fueled Spain’s home-building splurge.

“They’ve been pretty optimistic,” said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London who forecasts a 3 percent contraction this year. “You eventually lose face a bit.”

Spain’s economy will return to growth next year, expanding 1.2 percent, Solbes says. It will grow 2.6 percent in 2011.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sills in Madrid at bsills@bloomberg.net





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U.S. Consumer Price Gains Slow to 0.1% Annual Pace

By Timothy R. Homan

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of living in the U.S. fell in December as the recession deepened, capping the smallest annual gain in a half century.

Americans paid 0.1 percent more for goods and services in 2008, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Consumer prices fell 0.7 percent in December after dropping 1.7 percent the prior month. Excluding food and energy, costs were unchanged.

The worst holiday shopping season in at least four decades is forcing retailers such as Macy’s Inc. and J.Crew Group Inc. to cut prices to lure customers. Today’s report signals deflation, or a prolonged, harmful decline in prices, may become another risk facing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and President-elect Barack Obama.

“The global contraction is keeping” inflation “in check,” said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “The risk now is that a worsening in economic conditions brings about deflation.”

Treasuries, which fell earlier today on concern about the rising cost of government bailouts of financial companies, remained lower after the report. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes rose to 2.36 percent at 8:41 a.m. in New York, from 2.20 percent late yesterday. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index rose 1.4 percent to 850.80.

Economists’ Forecasts

Consumer prices were forecast to fall 0.9 percent, according to the median estimate of 80 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 0.4 percent to 1.5 percent. Costs excluding food and energy were forecast to rise 0.1 percent, the survey showed.

The core rate increased 1.8 percent last year, the smallest gain since 2003. Over the last three months, the rate is falling at an annual rate of 0.3 percent.

Energy costs dropped 8.3 percent last month and were down 21 percent for the year, the biggest decline since those records began in 1958. Gasoline prices decreased 43 percent in 2008, also the biggest decline on record going back to 1937.

Oil prices have fallen further this month. Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell as low as $33 in intraday trading yesterday after averaging $42.04 in December.

Food prices, which account for about a fifth of the CPI, decreased 0.1 percent, led by a 2.4 percent drop in the cost of fruits and vegetables.

Cars, Air Fares

Prices for clothing, new automobiles, airline fares and recreation all decreased last month. For all of 2008, the 3.2 percent drop in new-car prices was the biggest since 1971.

Categories that normally increase saw smaller gains last year. The cost of medical care rose 2.6, the least since 1964.

Today’s figures also showed wages increased 0.6 percent after adjusting for inflation, following an increase of 2.6 percent in November. They were up 2.9 percent for 2008.

Retail sales fell 2.7 percent in December, the sixth consecutive drop and extending the longest string of declines on record, the government said Jan. 14.

Prices are falling as the economy slows. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, based on consumer spending and excluding food and fuel costs, will rise 1.2 percent this year, the smallest gain since 1962, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month. The increase would be less than the long-term forecast of 1.3 percent to 1.7 percent that reflects policy makers’ expectations for the level of inflation given ”appropriate” monetary policy.

Bernanke’s Outlook

“Overall inflation has already declined significantly and appears likely to moderate further,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a Jan. 13 speech in London. “At this point, with global economic activity weak and commodity prices at low levels, we see little risk of inflation in the near term.”

The deceleration, also called disinflation, is different from the persistent decline in costs that economists call deflation.

Consumers are looking for cheaper prices on necessities such as food and clothing amid the recession. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s biggest retailer, climbed last year the most since 1999 as it started to sell $4 medicines and reduced prices on groceries, jeans and other basics attract more customers.

Still, slumping global economies forced the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company to cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast this month.

Macy’s Prices

Other retailers are slashing prices to attract shoppers amid a deepening recession. Terry Lundgren, chief executive officer of Macy’s, the second-largest department store, said he expects the company “will continue to be promotional for a very long time” after Macy’s cut prices as much as 75 percent in a sale on Jan. 10.

J.Crew’s Chief Executive Officer Mickey Drexler said the industry won’t ”ever” get back to where it’s been and that consumers are changing the way they shop. The clothing company has adjusted prices as a result, Drexler said this week.

Twenty-nine percent of U.S. shoppers are buying only essential or discounted items so far this year, compared with 18 percent a year ago, according to a survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers by America’s Research Group and UBS AG released this week.

The consumer-price index is the last of three monthly price gauges from the Labor Department. The CPI is the government’s broadest gauge of costs because it includes goods and services.

Prices paid to U.S. producers fell for a fifth month in December, sliding 1.9 percent, the government said yesterday. Import costs in December also decreased for a fifth consecutive month due to falling energy prices, the Labor Department said Jan. 14.

To contact the report responsible for this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net





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Bank of America Posts Quarterly Loss After Bailout

By David Mildenberg and Linda Shen

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank by assets, posted its first loss since 1991 and cut the dividend to a penny after receiving emergency government funds to support the acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co.

The fourth-quarter loss of $1.79 billion, or 48 cents a share, compared with net income of $268 million, or 5 cents, a year earlier, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company said in a statement today. Results didn't include a $15.3 billion loss at Merrill, acquired this month.

The losses, coupled with the government lifeline of $138 billion, raise doubts about the future of Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis, who engineered takeovers of unprofitable New York-based brokerage Merrill and ailing mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. during the worst market slump since the Great Depression. Bank of America plummeted 75 percent in New York trading through yesterday since the Merrill deal was announced in September.

“This thing is unraveling so fast Lewis may know his job is lost,” said Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. in Arlington, Virginia, who has an “underperform” rating on Bank of America. The management team has “lost credibility,” he said before results were announced.

``You will see the benefits'' when the economy improves, Lewis told investors during a conference call today. The bank doesn't comment on ``uninformed gossip,” spokesman Robert Stickler said.

Changing Course

The bank rose 11 percent to $9.25 at 7:09 a.m. in New York trading. The bank's loss was less than the $3.6 billion that Citigroup Inc. analyst Keith Horowitz estimated on Jan. 11. Bank of America's 32-cent dividend was reduced to one cent after being chopped from 64 cents last year.

For the full year, profit fell to $4.01 billion from $14.98 billion. Separately, Citigroup posted an $8.29 billion quarterly loss today, completing the worst year in its history.

The government said earlier today it will invest $20 billion in Bank of America and guarantee $118 billion of assets to help the company absorb Merrill and prevent the financial crisis from deepening. The agreement is part of a commitment to “support financial-market stability,” the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said in a joint statement shortly after midnight in Washington.

Lewis, 61, said Sept. 15 the purchase of Merrill gave Bank of America “one of the premier wealth management” companies and was “a great opportunity for our shareholders.” He also said at the time that the company didn't anticipate needing further financial aid from the government. The takeover was announced as New York-based securities firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. slid into the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Market Turmoil

Bank of America officials then told regulators last month that the Merrill deal might be abandoned because of worse-than- expected results, three people with knowledge of the situation said. The government insisted the transaction proceed because its collapse would create new turmoil in the financial system, the people said earlier this week, declining to be identified because the talks were private.

Credit-default swaps on Bank of America Corp. fell 10 basis points to 189 according to CMA Datavision prices at 6:50 a.m. in New York. The swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. Prices fall when investors become more confident about a company's health.

The bank is cutting as many as 35,000 jobs to reduce annual costs by about $7 billion. Bank of America also has taken steps to counter loan losses by selling a $2.8 billion share of its China Construction Bank stake.

TARP Funds

Today's emergency action shows how government officials, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, have failed to quell concerns about the viability of the nation's biggest banks, even after deploying $350 billion of financial-rescue funds. Financial companies have disclosed more than $1 trillion of writedowns and credit market losses since 2007 linked to the collapse in subprime mortgages, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Bank of America plan mirrors the emergency actions taken in November for New York-based Citigroup, when the government explicitly insured the bank against losses on toxic assets, with taxpayers footing the bill. The U.S. backed up $306 billion of Citigroup real-estate loans and securities, sharing losses beyond $29 billion for what may be some of the company's worst holdings.

Fire Fighting

In the Bank of America deal, the government will protect a $118 billion pool of assets that a U.S. official said includes residential and commercial real-estate holdings and credit- default swaps. The official spoke to reporters on a conference call on condition of anonymity.

The $20 billion purchase of preferred shares, which carry an 8 percent dividend, will be made later today. The funds come from the first half of the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program. The U.S. Senate voted yesterday to allow the release of the next $350 billion of the program.

“This is more short-term fire-fighting tactics,” said Ed Rogers, chief executive officer of Tokyo-based hedge-fund adviser Rogers Investment Advisors Y.K.

The U.S. had already injected $15 billion into Bank of America and $10 billion into Merrill to bolster the combined company against the credit crunch.

List of Losses

Bank of America charged off $5.54 billion of loans as uncollectible, equal to 2.36 percent of total average loan and leases, compared with 0.91 percent a year earlier, the statement said. The provision for loan losses increased to $8.5 billion from $6.45 billion in the third quarter because of ``economic stress on consumers,'' the bank said.

The bank reported ``market disruption-related impacts of $4.6 billion,'' including losses on collateralized debt obligations of $1.7 billion and writedowns on securities backed by commercial mortgages of $853 million. The bank said it wrote down $429 million from leveraged loans and $353 million from auction-rate securities.

Merrill Lynch's loss included writedowns of $1.9 billion on leveraged loans, $1.2 billion in investment securities and $1.1 billion on commercial real estate. The company also cut the value of its contracts with financial guarantors by $3.2 billion, Bank of America said. Merrill's wealth management division had $2.6 billion in net revenue with the best performance stemming from its U.S. advisory unit, the bank said.

Merrill's results weren't part of the bank's financial statements because the transaction was completed on Jan. 1.

Lending Review

The Countrywide acquisition is ``on track'' and likely to reach $900 million in annual cost savings by 2011, the bank said.

Bank of America said it formed a group that will meet weekly with Lewis to review lending ``and what more can be done while remaining prudent and responsible.'' Congressional leaders and business groups have criticized U.S. banks for curtailing credit after receiving government assistance.

Lewis has spent $129 billion on acquisitions, including regional lenders FleetBoston Financial Corp. and LaSalle Bank, credit-card issuer MBNA and investment manager U.S. Trust Co.

Bank of America agreed to buy Merrill, the world's largest brokerage firm, after a weekend of negotiations between Lewis and Merrill CEO John Thain, for $19.4 billion.

Treasury Accord

“Bank of America has all kinds of problems with its acquisitions,” said Gary Townsend, a former bank analyst and president of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC in Chevy Chase, Maryland. “They've been so acquisitive, they find themselves with very little in tangible equity.”

Bank of America became aware of Merrill's fourth-quarter losses after shareholders approved the takeover on Dec. 5, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier today, quoting a statement from the company. After the vote, Paulson and Bernanke warned Lewis about the risks to the financial system if the deal was scrapped, the Journal said, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

The agreement with the Treasury, the Fed and FDIC calls on Bank of America to absorb the first $10 billion of losses from its pool of assets, the “large majority” of which were assumed with the Merrill purchase, according to the government's statement. The company will absorb 10 percent of any additional losses, with the government on the hook for the remainder.

The Fed will backstop assets with a loan, after the government's first $10 billion in losses, shared by the Treasury and the FDIC. The asset pool includes cash assets with a current book value of as much as $37 billion and derivatives with maximum potential future losses of as much as $81 billion, according to the term sheet provided by the government.

Fed Backstop

Separately, the FDIC said today it plans to propose changing its bond-guarantee program for banks to cover debt as long as 10 years, up from the current three-year maturity. The FDIC also plans to propose rule changes to the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program.

The U.S. government will use all of its resources “to preserve the strength of our banking institutions and promote the process of repair and recovery and to manage risks,” the joint statement said.

Bernanke said earlier this week that troubled assets remain a “continuing barrier to private investment” in financial institutions and recommended that they be extracted with government help. He urged a “comprehensive plan,” with one possibility being to erect a so-called bad bank to purchase and administer the troubled loans and securities.

To contact the reporters on this story: David Mildenberg in Charlotte at dmildenberg@bloomberg.net;





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Acciona Climbs on Report Endesa Stake Sale Imminent

By Gianluca Baratti and Paul Tobin

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Acciona SA, the Spanish builder that holds a quarter of utility Endesa SA, rose the most in a month in Madrid trading after Expansion said a deal to sell the stake to Enel SpA could happen as early as this month.

Acciona shares jumped as much as 5.60 euros, or 6.9 percent, to 87.30 euros in the Spanish capital. The stock fell 59 percent in 2008.

Enel SpA is in talks to purchase a 25 percent stake in Endesa SA from Acciona and may make an offer by Jan. 26, the newspaper said, without saying where it got the information.

Italy’s largest utility has already negotiated 85 percent of the necessary financing for the deal from banks including Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Banco Santander SA and La Caja de Ahorros y Pensiones de Barcelona, the newspaper said.

Enel will own 92 percent of Endesa if the 11 billion-euro ($14.6 billion) purchase takes place. It may pull out of the deal if it is forced to purchase the remaining 8 percent of the company that will remain on the market, the newspaper said, without citing anybody.

No decision on whether to force Enel to make the public offer can be made until the operation is confirmed, a stock market regulator spokesperson said today, asking not to be named.

Acciona has no comment on the Expansion report, a spokesperson, who asked not to be named in line with company policy, said today. Enel will not comment on media speculation, a spokesperson said, also asking not to be named in line with company policy.

Endesa shares were down 3.7 percent or 99 cents to 25.89 euros a share at 10:32 local time, valuing the company at 27.4 billion euros ($36.2 billion).

To contact the reporter on this story: Gianluca Baratti in Madrid gbaratti@bloomberg.net.





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China Plans $14.6 Billion High-Voltage Lines Spending

By Wang Ying

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- State Grid Corp. of China, the nation's largest power distributor, plans to spend more than 100 billion yuan ($14.6 billion) to build ultra-high voltage electricity lines over the next three to four years.

The links will transmit electricity from remote hydro and coal-fired generators in the west to eastern or central China more efficiently and at a lower cost compared with conventional lines, Vice President Shu Yinbiao said in Beijing today. Ultra- high voltage lines can transmit about four times more power than conventional grid.

A slowing economy hasn't prevented China, the world's biggest energy consumer after the U.S., from investing in energy projects to ensure sufficient supplies for future demand. State Grid needs to invest more than 1.2 trillion yuan in its network in the five years ending 2010, it said in August.

``Construction of ultra-high voltage lines is in line with the central government's strategy to meet the country's long- term energy need,'' Shu told reporters.

China's power demand may more than double to 7.4 billion megawatt-hours by 2020 and its generating capacity may increase by a similar rate to 1,470 gigawatts, spokesman Lu Jian said.

State Grid officially started operating the country's first ultra-high voltage line at a cost of 5.86 billion yuan ($857 million) on Jan. 6, Lu said. The line links the southeastern part of Shanxi, the country's biggest coal- producing region, with Jingmen city in the central province of Hubei, he said.

The Beijing-based electricity distributor has obtained state approval to build two additional high-voltage transmission lines to send power from hydropower plants in Sichuan to Shanghai and the eastern province of Jiangsu, Shu said. Total spending on the two lines will exceed 40 billion yuan, Shu added.

China increased spending on power grids by 18 percent to 288.5 billion yuan last year, the Beijing-based China Electricity Council said on Jan. 5.

-- With reporting by Winnie Zhu in Shanghai. Editors: Ang Bee Lin, Jane Lee.

To contact the reporter on this story: Wang Ying in Beijing at ywang30@bloomberg.net.





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Vestas Discovers $16 Million Fraud at Spanish Subsidiary

By Christian Wienberg

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the world’s biggest wind-turbine maker, said it uncovered a 90 million kroner ($16 million) fraud at its Spanish unit.

Vestas has notified the authorities in Barcelona of the case, which involves current and former employees who made false invoices for nonexistent services, the Randers, Denmark-based company said today in a stock-exchange statement.

Spain was Vestas’ third-biggest market measured in installments in the first nine months of last year, behind the U.S. and China. Vestas said today that it discovered the accounting irregularities at the end of last year, and that losses won’t affect its previously stated profit forecasts.

“This is a dreary and very unfortunate matter, where trusted employees apparently have betrayed the trust and the responsibility they have been given,” Chief Executive Officer Ditlev Engel said in the statement.

Vestas slid as much as 2.7 percent after the company announced details of the case. The shares recovered to trade 8 kroner higher at 308 kroner as of 12 p.m. in Copenhagen.

The fraud was detected with the help of a “whistleblower system,” introduced a few years ago to make it easier for employees to report irregularities to senior management, Engel said in the statement.

The unidentified suspects set up companies investing in wind turbines “with the aim of laundering the money derived from illicit appropriation,” Vestas said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Wienberg in Copenhagen at cwienberg@bloomberg.net





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Oil Demand Set for 2-Year Drop on Recession, IEA Says

By Grant Smith

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Oil demand will fall for a second year, the first back-to-back contractions since 1983, as a deepening recession erodes consumer spending, the International Energy Agency said.

The adviser to 28 nations cut its global 2009 forecast by 1 million barrels a day on expectations the economic outlook will deteriorate. The IEA estimates consumption will shrink 0.6 percent to 85.3 million barrels a day. Forecasters including OPEC, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG have already said demand will fall this year.

“It’s a major shift,” said Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Group Ltd. in London who worked at the IEA. “The weakness in oil demand is significant. This year there will be a lot of attention on their forecasts and they don’t want to be accused of being behind the curve.”

Oil prices have plunged more than $100 a barrel from a record in July as the U.S., Europe and Japan face their first simultaneous recessions since World War II. This month’s IEA revision is its largest since at least 1996.

“The major institutions including the International Monetary Fund are in the process of revising down their forecasts and this month we’ve tried to pre-empt that,” David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, said in a telephone interview from Paris. “It’s fairly certain the IMF will make a downside revision.”

China’s Economy

Forecast demand in the industrialized countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development was cut by 530,000 barrels a day to 46.3 million barrels a day. Demand in developing countries, while revised down 480,000 barrels a day, will still expand 1.8 percent to 38.9 million barrels a day, the IEA said.

“China’s economy, in particular, appears to have sharply slowed down as its main export markets tumble,” the report said. Chinese consumption is expected to climb 1.3 percent to 8 million barrels a day. That’s 300,000 barrels a day less than previously forecast.

The agency cut its assumptions for 2009 global economic growth in half to 1.2 percent. Last year oil demand fell 0.2 percent to 85.8 million barrels a day, according to the IEA.

Yesterday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast global demand of 85.66 million barrels a day and said consumption of its own crude will fall 4.2 percent this year to 29.5 million barrels a day.

OPEC, responsible for more than 40 percent of the world’s oil, will have to provide about 29.9 million barrels a day this year to balance supply and demand, the IEA said, 900,000 barrels a day less than estimated in the previous report.

Supply Targets

At its last meeting in December, OPEC agreed to a record 9 percent reduction in supply targets, to take effect Jan. 1, extending two earlier resolutions to constrain production. The 11 members bound by quotas were within 2 percent of these at 27.7 million barrels a day as of last month, the IEA said.

The whole organization pumped 30.9 million barrels a day of crude oil in December, 330,000 barrels a day less than in November, the IEA said. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, cut by 450,000 barrels a day last month to 8.45 million barrels a day, according to the agency.

This week Saudi Arabia said that next month it will curb output by more than was announced at the Dec. 17 summit in Algeria.

The IEA also trimmed its forecast for supplies from outside OPEC next year by 30,000 barrels a day to 50 million barrels a day, leaving a growth rate of 1 percent. Non-OPEC supply fell last year for the first time since 2005 to 49.5 million barrels a day because of disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and Azerbaijan.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net





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EU Says Gas Crisis a Test Case for Russia, Ukraine Reliability

By Yuriy Humber and Halia Pavliva

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The European Union said weekend talks to resolve the standoff between Russia and Ukraine over natural-gas shipments will be a “test case” for their reliability as energy suppliers.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Timoshenko, in Moscow tomorrow to seek an end to the crisis that’s disrupted supplies to 20 nations. Russia proposed that European companies including Eni SpA and E.ON AG buy the gas Ukraine needs to operate its pipelines, one of the main sticking points in the dispute.

Gas prices in the U.K., Europe’s biggest market, are poised for their steepest one-week advance since August after the collapse of an EU-brokered deal between both sides. Ukraine today rejected another demand from OAO Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, to pump gas across its borders, saying the request was “technically impossible” to carry out.

“We can expect an agreement covering the technical aspects of gas transit to Europe, but there’s no guarantee that it will be honored by either party given the absolute lack of trust or goodwill,” said James Beagle, chief investment strategist at Pilgrim Asset Management

Russian gas flows via Ukraine were halted Jan. 7 after negotiations over gas prices and transit fees broke down. Gazprom accused Ukraine of siphoning off transit gas for its own needs, a charge the country denies. The Russian gas exporter that provides a quarter of the continent’s gas needs estimates it has lost $1.1 billion in export revenue since the crisis unfolded.

Energy Summit

Separately, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has invited both the Ukraine and the EU to an emergency summit in Moscow tomorrow. The EU has said it’s ready to send representatives to the meeting to “assist” both sides in reaching a settlement.

Czech Industry Minister Martin Riman has said he and EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs will attend as “observers” if Ukraine also takes part.

“The meetings in the coming days offer the last and best chance for Russia and for Ukraine to demonstrate that they are serious about resolving this dispute,’’ EU spokesman Johannes Laitenberger told reporters in Brussels today. “We will regard this period as a test case for judging whether or not they are credible partners.”

EU nations suffered further declines in gas stockpiles today on the continuing suspension of Russian gas flows via Ukraine.

‘Unusually low’

German gas inventories are “unusually” low, while Slovenia said supplies may last less than a month and Croatia sourced emergency imports. Balkan countries, the worst hit by the gas cutoff, have been forced to ration supplies, shut factories and cut power.

The Slovak government asked France and Germany to share Russian gas they receive through the Yamal pipeline through Belarus if Ukraine doesn’t approve a proposed gas swap by Jan. 19, Deputy Economy Minister Peter Ziga said today.

Under Putin’s proposal, Gazprom could sell the fuel to European companies for resale to Ukraine.

The Russian premier considers it “absurd” to give Ukraine free gas for running the pipeline system, according to his spokesman Dmitry Peskov. “Russia is not ready to take all the risks,” Peskov said yesterday on a conference call after Putin made the proposal at a Moscow meeting with Paolo Scaroni, chief executive officer of Italy’s Eni.

‘Favorably’

Gazprom said it planned to contact other European companies such as Germany’s E.ON Ruhrgas AG with Putin’s proposal after Scaroni said the Italian oil producer would look “favorably” on this solution, according to Peskov. Ukraine needs 1.7 billion cubic meters of gas for technical purposes, according to Gazprom.

Spokespeople at E.ON Ruhrgas and BASF SE’s Wintershall Holding AG oil & gas unit didn’t immediately return calls seeking comment. Sebastian Ackermann, a spokesman for RWE Energy AG, a Dortmund-based unit of RWE AG, declined to immediately comment.

“We will pay for the gas and be paid back in gas at the moment Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement,” Scaroni said, adding that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi backed the plan. Eni would lead the EU group.

U.K. gas prices for next-month delivery are up 12 percent this week, the biggest five-day gain since August, according to data from broker Spectron Group Ltd. February gas was unchanged at 63.50 pence a therm as of 12:01 p.m. in London.

Technical Accord

“We can only pump the full amount of gas on export contracts,” Dmytro Marunych, a spokesman for NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy, the state utility, said by phone in Kiev today. “We are waiting for Gazprom to sign a technical agreement on gas transit to Europe.”

Ukraine wants Russian gas to Europe to be supplied via four gas stations with a total daily amount of 318 million cubic meters of fuel. Ukraine needs 36 hours’ notice before the gas arrives at stations near Ukraine’s western and southern borders, Marunych said.

Timoshenko sent a telegram to Putin yesterday guaranteeing Russian transit flows to EU nations “apart from 8 percent of gas used to fuel gas-pumping,” according to a statement on the government’s Web site.

A gas group has been discussed by Russia and Ukraine since at least 2006, when then-President Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yushchenko, said they would welcome assistance from European energy companies in operating Ukraine’s gas pipelines.

Yushchenko has repeatedly said the pipelines, which carry most Russian gas exports to western Europe, will remain state- owned by Ukraine.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel took aim at Russia before she’s due to host talks with Putin in Berlin today, saying Moscow could lose its “reliability” as an energy partner if gas deliveries are interrupted for much longer. Germany is the biggest foreign customer of Russian gas.

Gazprom’s overall deliveries to Europe fell by about 60 percent when it halted transit flows and supplies to Ukraine’s domestic market were suspended Jan. 1.

In 2006, Russia turned off gas exports to Ukraine for three days, causing volumes to fall in the EU, and also cut shipments by 50 percent last March during a debt spat.

To contact the reporters on this story: Yuriy Humber in Moscow at yhumber@bloomberg.net; Halia Pavliva in New York at hpavliva@bloomberg.net





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Ruble Falls Most in 10 Years This Week After Five Devaluations

By Emma O’Brien

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The ruble dropped, heading for the biggest weekly decline against the dollar in a decade, as Russia’s central bank quickened the pace of devaluations to stanch the erosion of currency reserves.

The ruble fell as low as 32.6675 per dollar today, the weakest since early 1998, before the government defaulted on $40 billion of debt. The ruble has fallen 5.5 percent in the six-day week since official trading began after Russia’s Christmas holidays, the biggest decline since March 1999.

Bank Rossii devalued the currency for the fifth time in six days, a central bank official said, more than double the pace in November and December. This week alone, the bank drained $25 billion from foreign-exchange reserves, according to estimates by Trust Investment Bank in Moscow. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pledged last month to use the reserves, the world’s third- largest, to avoid “sharp” declines in the ruble.

“The moves now are faster, because the slower they move the easier it is for the market to position for further devaluation,” said Roderick Ngotho, an emerging-markets currency strategist in London at UBS AG, which forecasts a further 6.8 percent depreciation in the ruble versus the basket.

Foreign-currency reserves have shrunk 29 percent to $426.5 billion since August, the central bank said yesterday. The ruble has lost 28 percent against the dollar and 15 percent versus the euro in the period, while the currency has slipped 27 percent against the basket. The central bank allowed 17 depreciations in the past two months.

‘Salami-Slice’

“If the government had actually announced a one-off devaluation of around 30 percent in the autumn the issue would probably be done and dusted by now,” Chris Weafer, chief strategist in Moscow at UralSib Financial Corp., wrote in an e- mail to clients today. “Instead, the salami-slice approach that the central bank is using has created considerable uncertainty and the expectation of further weakness.”

Investors withdrew about $245 billion from Russia in the last four months of 2008, according to BNP Paribas SA, amid the country’s worst financial crisis since the 1998 economic collapse, plunging commodity prices and an internationally condemned conflict with neighboring Georgia.

The currency lost 1.2 percent to 37.3326 against the basket, by 1:07 p.m. in Moscow, and weakened 7.5 percent this week. The ruble weakened 1.5 percent to 43.0959 per euro today, adding to this week’s 9.6 percent drop, also the biggest weekly decline since March 1999. It last traded at 0.6 percent to 32.5689 per dollar.

Possible Recession

The ruble slumped more than 10 percent against the dollar in the last week of March 1999, when North Atlantic Treaty Organization jets started bombing Yugoslavia as the Balkan war raised tensions between Russia and the West.

Russia’s $1.7 trillion economy may slide into recession in the first half as Urals crude, the country’s main oil export blend, continues its 68 percent slump from a record-high in July, Arkady Dvorkovich, President Dmitry Medvedev’s economic adviser, said in December.

Urals currently trades at $44.67 a barrel, below the $70 average price required to balance Russia’s budget this year. The government cut its average oil forecast for 2009 by 20 percent to $40 a barrel, Vedomosti reported yesterday. Industrial output sank the most in 10 years in November and unemployment rose to 6.6 percent.

“The reasonably rapid pace is better than trying to hold the ruble at an unsustainable level,” said Paul McNamara, who helps manage about $1 billion in emerging market assets at Augustus Asset Managers Ltd. in London, which recently pared its bets against the ruble. “Obviously the best solution would have been one big devaluation but it has already come quite far.”

Speculators’ Bets

The ruble will slide 10 percent against the dollar to 36.36 in three months time, according to non-deliverable forwards. Twelve-month NDFs, which fix a currency at a particular level at a future date, put the decline at 21 percent. The contracts are often used by companies to protect against foreign-exchange fluctuations.

Both Citigroup Inc. and UBS forecast the ruble will slide to about 40 against the basket this quarter, while Renaissance Capital, a Moscow-based investment bank, predicts a further 12 percent depreciation in the dollar-ruble rate. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the currency may drop another 11 percent in the next six months.

The need for Russian companies to refinance debt is one of the main pressures pushing the ruble down, McNamara said. The dispute over gas shipments through Ukraine to Europe isn’t helping the investment case, he said.

Gas Shipments

Russian companies need to repay more than $80 billion of debt in foreign this year, according to Societe Generale SA. Debt refinancing is one of the main pressures pushing the ruble down, McNamara said.

Gas flows have been shut off since Jan. 7 amid disagreements over pricing and allegations Ukraine was siphoning gas. The former Soviet republic rejected OAO Gazprom’s request to resume transit gas today, RIA Novosti reported, citing Valentyn Zemlyanskyi, spokesman of state energy company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy.

Putin meets his Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Timoshenko, in Moscow tomorrow to try and break the impasse.

Morgan Stanley cut its rating on Russian stocks to “equal- weight” from “overweight” as “political tensions” and the slump in commodity prices worsened prospects for the economy, according to the research report issued today.

The Micex index gained 1.5 percent to 614.80 today, trimming this week’s drop to 0.7 percent. Government 30-year dollar bonds rose for the first day this week, pushing the yield 16 basis points lower to 9.79 percent.

Bank Rossii has raised interest rates twice since starting the current round of devaluations on Nov. 11, in a bid to arrest outflows, which reached a record $129.9 billion last year. The central bank has limited so-called currency swaps, agreements that allow traders to bet on the exchange rate without having to sell the currency upfront, to 5 billion rubles ($153 million) since Dec. 3.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma O’Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net





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British Pound Gains as Stocks Advance, Governments Help Banks

By Matthew Brown

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The pound rose for a third straight day as stocks around the world advanced and the Government pledged to help struggling homeowners pay their loans.

The British currency rose against the euro, the dollar and the Japanese yen as stock market gains indicated investors are prepared to move into what they consider to be riskier assets. The U.K. government said it will set aside 200 million pounds ($292 million) to help keep property owners who face repossession in England.

“It’s a positive pound story,” said Ian Stannard, a currency strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA. “Sterling is picking up some strength because of the equity market performance and the financial sector is regaining some support on the back of the reports in the U.S. and U.K. that the governments may provide some additional assistance.”

The pound rose 2 percent against the dollar to $1.4927 at 12:25 p.m. in London from $1.4632 yesterday. It gained as much as 1.3 percent versus the euro before trading at 88.96 pence from 89.61 pence. It’s 1.6 percent lower against the dollar this week.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, a European benchmark, climbed 2.9 percent while the MSCI World Index rose 1.8 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 Index advanced 2.7 percent.

The U.K. will hand money to housing associations, which will have the power to buy stakes in primary residences and then rent them back, the Department of Communities and Local Government said today. Only people earning less than 60,000 pounds a year will qualify for the program.

‘Helpful’

The U.S. government said today it will invest $20 billion in Bank of America Corp. and guarantee $118 billion of assets.

A decline in the pound last year helped support the British economy during the global slump, Deputy Bank of England Governor John Gieve said in a speech today. The pound dropped 23 percent decline against the euro and 26 percent versus the dollar in 2008.

“No one who has lived through the 70s, 80s and early 90s will be complacent about a fall in sterling,” Gieve said. “But there is no doubt that an appreciable fall in the pound, such as we have seen, has been helpful both in supporting exports and import substitution in the short term and in encouraging the rebalancing of the economy that we need in the medium term.”

U.K. government bonds fell, pushing the yield on the 10- year gilt up 12 basis points to 3.26 percent. The 5 percent security due March 2018 fell 1.02, or 10.2 pounds per thousand pound face amount, to 113.68. The two-year gilt yield rose six basis point to 1.61 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net





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Bank of America Posts Quarterly Loss After Bailout

By David Mildenberg and Linda Shen

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank by assets, posted its first loss since 1991 and cut the dividend to a penny after receiving emergency government funds to support the acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co.

The fourth-quarter loss of $1.79 billion, or 48 cents a share, compared with net income of $268 million, or 5 cents, a year earlier, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company said in a statement today. Results didn't include a $15.3 billion loss at Merrill, acquired this month.

The losses, coupled with the government lifeline of $138 billion, raise doubts about the future of Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis, who engineered takeovers of unprofitable New York-based brokerage Merrill and ailing mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. during the worst market slump since the Great Depression. Bank of America plummeted 75 percent in New York trading through yesterday since the Merrill deal was announced in September.

“This thing is unraveling so fast Lewis may know his job is lost,” said Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. in Arlington, Virginia, who has an “underperform” rating on Bank of America. The management team has “lost credibility,” he said before results were announced.

``You will see the benefits'' when the economy improves, Lewis told investors during a conference call today. The bank doesn't comment on ``uninformed gossip,” spokesman Robert Stickler said.

Changing Course

The bank rose 11 percent to $9.25 at 7:09 a.m. in New York trading. The bank's loss was less than the $3.6 billion that Citigroup Inc. analyst Keith Horowitz estimated on Jan. 11. Bank of America's 32-cent dividend was reduced to one cent after being chopped from 64 cents last year.

For the full year, profit fell to $4.01 billion from $14.98 billion. Separately, Citigroup posted an $8.29 billion quarterly loss today, completing the worst year in its history.

The government said earlier today it will invest $20 billion in Bank of America and guarantee $118 billion of assets to help the company absorb Merrill and prevent the financial crisis from deepening. The agreement is part of a commitment to “support financial-market stability,” the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said in a joint statement shortly after midnight in Washington.

Lewis, 61, said Sept. 15 the purchase of Merrill gave Bank of America “one of the premier wealth management” companies and was “a great opportunity for our shareholders.” He also said at the time that the company didn't anticipate needing further financial aid from the government. The takeover was announced as New York-based securities firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. slid into the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Market Turmoil

Bank of America officials then told regulators last month that the Merrill deal might be abandoned because of worse-than- expected results, three people with knowledge of the situation said. The government insisted the transaction proceed because its collapse would create new turmoil in the financial system, the people said earlier this week, declining to be identified because the talks were private.

Credit-default swaps on Bank of America Corp. fell 10 basis points to 189 according to CMA Datavision prices at 6:50 a.m. in New York. The swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. Prices fall when investors become more confident about a company's health.

The bank is cutting as many as 35,000 jobs to reduce annual costs by about $7 billion. Bank of America also has taken steps to counter loan losses by selling a $2.8 billion share of its China Construction Bank stake.

TARP Funds

Today's emergency action shows how government officials, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, have failed to quell concerns about the viability of the nation's biggest banks, even after deploying $350 billion of financial-rescue funds. Financial companies have disclosed more than $1 trillion of writedowns and credit market losses since 2007 linked to the collapse in subprime mortgages, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Bank of America plan mirrors the emergency actions taken in November for New York-based Citigroup, when the government explicitly insured the bank against losses on toxic assets, with taxpayers footing the bill. The U.S. backed up $306 billion of Citigroup real-estate loans and securities, sharing losses beyond $29 billion for what may be some of the company's worst holdings.

Fire Fighting

In the Bank of America deal, the government will protect a $118 billion pool of assets that a U.S. official said includes residential and commercial real-estate holdings and credit- default swaps. The official spoke to reporters on a conference call on condition of anonymity.

The $20 billion purchase of preferred shares, which carry an 8 percent dividend, will be made later today. The funds come from the first half of the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program. The U.S. Senate voted yesterday to allow the release of the next $350 billion of the program.

“This is more short-term fire-fighting tactics,” said Ed Rogers, chief executive officer of Tokyo-based hedge-fund adviser Rogers Investment Advisors Y.K.

The U.S. had already injected $15 billion into Bank of America and $10 billion into Merrill to bolster the combined company against the credit crunch.

List of Losses

Bank of America charged off $5.54 billion of loans as uncollectible, equal to 2.36 percent of total average loan and leases, compared with 0.91 percent a year earlier, the statement said. The provision for loan losses increased to $8.5 billion from $6.45 billion in the third quarter because of ``economic stress on consumers,'' the bank said.

The bank reported ``market disruption-related impacts of $4.6 billion,'' including losses on collateralized debt obligations of $1.7 billion and writedowns on securities backed by commercial mortgages of $853 million. The bank said it wrote down $429 million from leveraged loans and $353 million from auction-rate securities.

Merrill Lynch's loss included writedowns of $1.9 billion on leveraged loans, $1.2 billion in investment securities and $1.1 billion on commercial real estate. The company also cut the value of its contracts with financial guarantors by $3.2 billion, Bank of America said. Merrill's wealth management division had $2.6 billion in net revenue with the best performance stemming from its U.S. advisory unit, the bank said.

Merrill's results weren't part of the bank's financial statements because the transaction was completed on Jan. 1.

Lending Review

The Countrywide acquisition is ``on track'' and likely to reach $900 million in annual cost savings by 2011, the bank said.

Bank of America said it formed a group that will meet weekly with Lewis to review lending ``and what more can be done while remaining prudent and responsible.'' Congressional leaders and business groups have criticized U.S. banks for curtailing credit after receiving government assistance.

Lewis has spent $129 billion on acquisitions, including regional lenders FleetBoston Financial Corp. and LaSalle Bank, credit-card issuer MBNA and investment manager U.S. Trust Co.

Bank of America agreed to buy Merrill, the world's largest brokerage firm, after a weekend of negotiations between Lewis and Merrill CEO John Thain, for $19.4 billion.

Treasury Accord

“Bank of America has all kinds of problems with its acquisitions,” said Gary Townsend, a former bank analyst and president of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC in Chevy Chase, Maryland. “They've been so acquisitive, they find themselves with very little in tangible equity.”

Bank of America became aware of Merrill's fourth-quarter losses after shareholders approved the takeover on Dec. 5, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier today, quoting a statement from the company. After the vote, Paulson and Bernanke warned Lewis about the risks to the financial system if the deal was scrapped, the Journal said, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

The agreement with the Treasury, the Fed and FDIC calls on Bank of America to absorb the first $10 billion of losses from its pool of assets, the “large majority” of which were assumed with the Merrill purchase, according to the government's statement. The company will absorb 10 percent of any additional losses, with the government on the hook for the remainder.

The Fed will backstop assets with a loan, after the government's first $10 billion in losses, shared by the Treasury and the FDIC. The asset pool includes cash assets with a current book value of as much as $37 billion and derivatives with maximum potential future losses of as much as $81 billion, according to the term sheet provided by the government.

Fed Backstop

Separately, the FDIC said today it plans to propose changing its bond-guarantee program for banks to cover debt as long as 10 years, up from the current three-year maturity. The FDIC also plans to propose rule changes to the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program.

The U.S. government will use all of its resources “to preserve the strength of our banking institutions and promote the process of repair and recovery and to manage risks,” the joint statement said.

Bernanke said earlier this week that troubled assets remain a “continuing barrier to private investment” in financial institutions and recommended that they be extracted with government help. He urged a “comprehensive plan,” with one possibility being to erect a so-called bad bank to purchase and administer the troubled loans and securities.

To contact the reporters on this story: David Mildenberg in Charlotte at dmildenberg@bloomberg.net;





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