Economic Calendar

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Forex Depth Analysis: EUR/USD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Finotec Group | Dec 23 08 09:41 GMT |

Euro looking to profit ahead of bad housing data in U.S.

The dollar weakened for a second day against the euro before a government report that economists estimate will show sales of new U.S. homes declined to the lowest level in more than 17 years.
The euro may rise to $1.50 in the next two weeks based on trading patterns, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst at Forecast Singapore Pte. The 15-nation currency is poised to gain as its relative strength index is above 50, Ng said, showing the euro has the momentum to continue this month's 10 percent advance.

The following technical analysis gives us a detailed lookout on what is expected to happen to EUR/USD.

The buying point is at 1.3967; based on failure swing bottom formation.

  • Fibonacci 23.6% is the take profit at 1.4420
  • Previous support is the stop loss at 1.3620

The selling point is at 1.3590; based on a break of a strong support level.

  • Previous support is the take profit at 1.3270
  • Fibonacci 61.8% is the stop loss at 1.3920

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the crossing of MACD line to the signal line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a clear uptrend.

The ROC oscillator is very important to understand the demand in the market and as we see on the graph it is in a bullish direction. The Momentum oscillator breaks equilibrium level upwards.

* The following analysis is for information only; Finotec is not responsible for any decisions or misinterpretations based on the given text.

Finotec Group Inc.
http://www.finotec.com/

Disclaimer: FINOTEC Tradings Market Commentaries are provided for informational purposes only. The information contained within these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and not intended as investment advice. FINOTEC Trading assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein.


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Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by iFOREX.bg | Dec 23 08 09:36 GMT |

GBP/USD 1.4870

GBP/USD Open 1.48223 High 1.4983 Low 1.4687 Close 1.4827

Pound/Dollar continued their descending scenario yesterday. Couple made a bottom at 1.4687 and closed at 1.4827. The signals remain descending, still with targets towards the region of 1.4560. On the daily chart we can see that the couple is moving in a formed rectangle that is the consolidation phase of the current descending scenario. Break under 1.4680 may be seen as a break out of the rectangle, which should lead to further bearish momentum. The CCI indicator however just crossed up the 100 line on the four hour chart, so be careful for a small potential rising pressure by testing the level of resistance 1.4955.

Technical resistance levels: 1.4955 1.5040 1.5165
Technical support levels: 1.4700 1.4570 1.4460

Trading range: 1.4880 - 1.4820

Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.4870 SL 1.4900 TP 1.4830

iFOREX.bg Forecasts and Trading Signals
http://www.zifx.com


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Daily FX Report

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Varengold Bank | Dec 23 08 10:15 GMT |

Good morning from beautiful and cold Hamburg. Today the FOREX market is trading pretty quite, due to the Christmas holidays ahead. However we wish you a nice Christmas Eve and a successful trading day. Our next Daily Fx Report will be sent out on the 29th of December.

Markets review

The USD stays stabile against the JPY after recovering from a 13-years low of 87.13 last week. There are still concerns over the Japanese economy following more gloomy data and a deteriorating economic outlook expressed by the BoJ. Due to the global slump and a surging JPY, Japan registered an export deficit for the longest period in almost 30 years in November. Shirakawa added that Japan's economic conditions are likely to become more severe even after the BOJ reduced interest rates close to zero last week. The USD/JPY trades nearly flat at 90.30 after a 1.18% increase from yesterday. Trading is absolutely quite with limited players in the market ahead of the Christmas holiday later this week, traders said. The EUR/JPY rose 0.4% to 126.37. In a thin market condition some institutional investors bought the EUR and supported the EUR/Cross currency pairs. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.4004, up 0.4% on the day. Data on Monday showed Belgian business confidence fell in December to a record low, which hurt sentiment for the EUR. But the market shifts focus now to the US data on November and existing home sales.

The NZD/USD is trading near unchanged at 0.5735; little moved by data showing on Monday the New Zealand economy slipped deeper into recession in the third quarter, which is reinforcing expectations for further sharp cuts in interest rates by the RBNZ

Technical analysis GBP/AUD

Since the beginning of October, the GBP/AUD has been trading along a downward trend line with a support level at 2.2. As you can see the market has made an almost clear break through the support line, which could be a sign for further bearish movements

EUR/AUD

Since October, the EUR/AUD has been moving in a sideways trend inside a few of support and resistance levels. After touching the 2.083 resistance line for the third time, the pair recovered again and it seems to be on the way towards the support levels at 1.95, 1.90 and 1.85 now.

Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events

Varengold Bank

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Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Dec 23 08 10:15 GMT |

U.K. Faced the Worst Recession Since 1990 as Final GDP Revised Down

Final U.K. Q3 GDP was unexpectedly revised down to -0.6% q/q from -0.5% in the earlier release, while the annual rate remained up 0.3%. The downward growth revision further highlights the very dire state of the U.K. economy, even before the full impact of the recent credit crunch intensification has been felt, increasing the risk for a deep recession. The breakdown showed household consumption unrevised at -0.2% q/q, the largest quarterly fall since Q1 1995 and likely to deteriorate further over the coming quarters. Investment contracted by 2.8% q/q (revised from -2.4%) while public spending rose by 0.6% q/q (revised down from 1.0% previously). Exports were revised up, however, to show a 0.3% q/q increase (versus a 0.3% drop previously) but imports were also revised higher, to 1.0% q/q (from 0.1%), with net exports remaining a drag on overall growth. Hence, the re-balancing of the U.K. economy appears to be slow. U.K.'s large service sector recorded an output drop of -0.5% (revised from -0.4%), the largest quarterly fall since Q3 1990, with the distribution, hotels and catering sector recording output down 2.1% q/q (revised from -1.9%), the worst reading since Q3 1980. Meanwhile, the industrial sector showed negative growth of 1.4% q/q (revised from -1.1%). Overall, very weak data, paving the way for even larger growth contractions in Q4.

DailyFX

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Markets Shrug Off China's 5th Rate Cut Since September, Japan Closed

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | Dec 23 08 10:08 GMT |

Market Brief

As Father Christmas approaches, the VIX volatility index falls signaling a slowdown in market activity for year end as market players reflect on a fiscally disastrous year. The pessimistic data out of U.S and EU businesses still a weight on sentiment as 2008 draws to a close. U.S and UK GDP figures are out today, final Q3 numbers expected to confirm the drastic decline in growth in the latter part of the year as the financial world's meltdown hit its climax.

The EURUSD continued to strengthen and traded a range of 1.3935 - 1.4019, while the USDJPY barely moved (90.13 - 90.36) as Japan is closed for the Emperor's Birthday holiday. Toyota motor announced that it expected its first-ever (in 68 years) operating loss of $1.7Bn for the year to end-March 2009. The companies' Chairman Fuijo Cho cited a relentless sales slide and crippling rise in the Yen as key reasons. This news hit markets worldwide hard as the world's number one automaker employs over 315'000 people worldwide.

The People's bank of China expectedly cut rates by 0.27% yesterday - for the fifth time since September. This failed to spark impetus and Chinese stocks fell almost 3% this morning as sentiment remained low - the same can be said for the rest of Asia as China's sheer size and pervasive nature acts as a bolster in the region.

GDP figures are a focus today, while markets will be keeping an eye on Crude's decline - now trading consistently below $40/bbl. While the dollar has dropped somewhat in past weeks it seems this is probably down to abnormal liquidity conditions as opposed to a material shift in sentiment.

ACM FOREX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.






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U.K. Third Quarter GDP Levels: Summary (Table)

By Mark Evans

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Following is the summary of U.K. GDP for the third quarter from the Office for National Statistics in London:


=============================================================================
3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q
2008 2008 2008 2007 2007
=============================================================================
------------- Quarterly % changes ------------
Chained Volume Indices
GDP market prices -0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8%
Gross value added* -0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9%
Implied Deflators
Gross domestic Expenditure 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.6%
GDP market prices 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7%
Gross value added* 1.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Value Indices at Current Prices
GDP market prices -0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.5%
Gross value added* 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6%
=============================================================================
=============================================================================
3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q
2008 2008 2008 2007 2007
=============================================================================
Final Consumption Expenditure
Households -0.2% -0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 1.4%
General Government 0.6% 0.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2%
Gross fixed capital formation -2.8% -0.9% -3.0% 1.4% 1.9%
Exports 0.3% -0.3% 0.4% -0.2% 2.3%
Imports 1.0% -0.9% -0.4% -0.2% 4.9%
-------------- Annual % changes --------------
Chained Volume Indices
GDP market prices 0.3% 1.7% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3%
Gross value added* 0.3% 1.8% 2.6% 2.9% 3.3%
Implied Deflators
Total domestic Expenditure 1.9% 2.1% 2.8% 2.1% 2.4%
GDP market prices 2.0% 2.3% 2.9% 2.7% 2.8%
Gross value added* 2.8% 2.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9%
Value Indices at Current Prices
GDP market prices 2.3% 4.1% 5.6% 5.8% 6.2%
Gross value added* 3.1% 4.3% 6.1% 6.1% 6.3%
=============================================================================
3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q
2008 2008 2008 2007 2007
=============================================================================
Final Consumption Expenditure
Households 0.7% 2.3% 3.7% 3.5% 3.7%
General Government 3.6% 3.2% 3.1% 1.5% 1.6%
Gross fixed capital formation -5.3% -0.7% -0.3% 4.1% 6.4%
Exports 0.1% 2.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.6%
Imports -0.6% 3.3% 3.8% 5.3% 5.4%
---------------- Index Level -----------------
Chained Volume Indices
GDP market prices 112.0 112.7 112.7 112.3 111.7
Gross value added* 112.0 112.7 112.7 112.2 111.7
Implied Deflators
Total domestic Expenditure 113.5 113.1 112.8 111.6 111.4
GDP market prices 113.4 113.0 112.7 111.7 111.1
Gross value added* 114.3 113.1 113.0 112.0 111.2
Value Indices at Current Prices
GDP market prices 127.0 127.3 127.0 125.4 124.1
Gross value added* 128.0 127.5 127.4 125.7 124.2
=============================================================================
3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q
2008 2008 2008 2007 2007
=============================================================================
---- Chained Volume Measure (GBP/Million) ----
GDP market prices 319,078 321,160 321,144 319,920 318,160
Gross value added* 284,261 286,099 286,066 284,803 283,396

Final Consumption Expenditure
Households 200,596 200,918 201,537 199,607 199,150
General Government 65,625 65,216 64,773 63,522 63,328
Gross fixed capital formation 54,089 55,674 56,167 57,897 57,118
Exports 88,916 88,634 88,944 88,595 88,813
Imports 99,342 98,400 99,318 99,728 99,894
=============================================================================
NOTE: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its main components incorporate
annual chain linking.
*: At basic prices
Estimates are given to the nearest GBP million.


SOURCE: National Statistics

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Evans in London at mevans8@bloomberg.net





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Iceland ‘Like Chernobyl’ as Meltdown Shows Anger Can Boil Over

By Ben Holland

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- It was the week before Christmas in Reykjavik, and all through the town Eva Hauksdottir led a band of 60 whistle-blowing, pan-banging, shouting demonstrators.

“Pay your own debts,” they yelled as they visited one bank office after another in Iceland’s capital. “Don’t make the children pay.”

When she isn’t leading one of the almost daily acts of protest in this land devastated by the global financial meltdown, Hauksdottir sells good luck charms made from the claws of ptarmigans, a local bird, and voodoo dolls in the form of bankers. She says she expects to lose her home, worth less than when she bought it two years ago, after the amount she owes jumped more than 20 percent.

Unrest following the end of a five-year economic boom is overshadowing the holidays in a country of 320,000 near the Arctic Circle, where the folklore is filled with magic, trolls and elves. Expansion ended with the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market. The fallout in Iceland may presage civil disruptions elsewhere, as job losses multiply and credit bills come due. Few nations can count themselves safe, says Ian Bremmer, president of the New York-based Eurasia Group, which analyzes political risk for businesses.

“As people have their expectations changed radically, you can have protests come out of nowhere,” even in developed countries, Bremmer said.

‘Maybe Axes’

Riots in Greece this month, sparked by the police shooting of a teenager, became tinged with economic dissension. A group of Kuwaiti equity traders marched on the emir’s office in October to demand the closing of the stock exchange to stem losses. Even in U.S. cities, civil disorder is “conceivable” if unemployment rises above 10 percent from November’s 6.7 percent, Bremmer says.

Hauksdottir, the owner of a Reykjavik witchcraft shop, says over a cup of thyme and juniper tea that only civil disobedience can force banks to stop collecting debts that people can’t pay.

“We’ll use our voices, and then if we have to we’ll use our hands, and maybe axes,” Hauksdottir says.

At Reykjavik’s half-built concert hall, a symbol of the good times that juts from the harbor toward the North Pole, the visitor center is closed to visitors. The principal owner, Landsbanki Islands hf, failed in October. Marketing director Thorhallur Vilhjalmsson says he’s making ends meet on severance pay.

“Iceland right now is like Chernobyl after the blast,” Vilhjalmsson says. “It looks normal, but there’s radiation.”

Kicking Down Doors

The protests may escalate as bills come due and severance pay runs out for those who lost jobs at the three biggest lenders, including Landsbanki, the second-largest, says Stefan Palsson, a historian. He once led the Campaign Against Militarism, opposing NATO bases in the 1960s.

He said he’s surprised ordinary people are backing activists once considered “hooligans.” There was public outrage three years ago when environmentalists poured yogurt over aluminum representatives to protest a new plant.

“Now you have protesters kicking down doors at police stations, and respectable elderly people saying ‘Well, they’re young and full of enthusiasm, and anyway, they’re right!’” he said.

Inflation rose to 18.1 percent this month, and the International Monetary Fund predicts that Iceland’s economy will shrink 9.6 percent next year. The Washington-based global lender of last resort put together a rescue package for the country worth as much as $5.3 billion last month.

No-Debt Ethics

The decline in the krona and surge in prices are creating a triple whammy for borrowers whose home loans are typically linked to inflation or foreign currencies. Households owed more than double their disposable income at the end of 2006, almost twice the level in the U.S., according to the IMF.

Some Icelanders say the easy money of the past decade eroded the island’s traditions. A sheep farmer in the 1934 novel, “Independent People,” by Iceland’s only Nobel laureate, Halldor Laxness, preferred freedom from debt to any material comforts. His motto was: “I don’t owe anyone a penny.”

That philosophy may return, says Birgir Asgeirsson, 63, the priest at Reykjavik’s Hallgrimskirkja Lutheran church.

“I grew up learning that you work for what you get, but kids today just get what they want,” Asgeirsson says. “Now I can hear parents say ‘No, my little boy, it’s not that easy.’”

Gunnlaugur Gudmundsson is an astrologer and chief executive officer of a company that provides horoscope predictions for phone operators such as Vodafone Group Plc. Customer numbers have more than doubled since the crisis broke, he said.

“The classic question used to be, ‘I’m in love with this guy, will he marry me?’” he said at a table strewn with star- charts. “Now the questions are about jobs, and when the good times will return.”

Two-Year Contraction

The answer may be 2011, according to the IMF, which projects two years of economic contraction first.

That may take Iceland back to the income levels of five or 10 years ago, “and we weren’t badly off then,” said Hannes Holmstein Gissurarson, professor of politics at the University of Iceland and a central bank supervisory board member. Banks and politicians were victims of an “external shock,” and weren’t behaving much worse than their counterparts elsewhere, he said.

The difference was one of scale. As governments worldwide pumped money into stricken banks, Iceland couldn’t follow suit. By the end of last year, local banks had accumulated assets almost nine times the size of the country’s $12 billion economy, according to the IMF.

The lack of backup was a “systemic error no one thought of,” Gissurarson said.

‘Cocktail Party’

The Reykjavik concert hall was budgeted at 170 million pounds ($252 million), Vilhjalmsson says. That was more than 2 percent of gross domestic product -- equivalent to a $250 billion project in the U.S. Pointing to miniature models, Vilhjalmsson says the building’s glass shell was designed to refract the low Arctic sun in kaleidoscopic shades.

In midwinter in the world’s northernmost capital the sun appears for just four hours a day, leaving long evenings for Icelanders to figure out how their country got caught up in the global boom-and-bust. Vilhjalmsson has his own version.

“The West is having this great, long cocktail party,” Vilhjalmsson says. “And then, late in the evening, in comes this cute little dwarf, Iceland. And he gets drunk.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Holland in Istanbul at bholland1@bloomberg.net.





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Italian Consumer Confidence Falls on Recession

By Lorenzo Totaro

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Italian consumer confidence fell in December to the lowest in four months on concern that the worst recession since 1992 would boost unemployment.

The Isae Institute’s consumer confidence index dropped to 99.6 from 100.4 in November, the Rome-based research center said today in an e-mailed statement. The reading was in line with the median forecast of 99.5 in a survey of 17 economists by Bloomberg News.

“We expect a significant fall in consumer spending in the fourth quarter,” said Luigi Speranza, an economist at BNP Paribas in Milan. “Consumers can partly benefit from lower energy prices, but the prevailing sentiment is pessimism on the outlook for the labor market and about the financial crisis.”


Italy entered its fourth recession in seven years in the third quarter as the global economic slowdown prompted the country’s biggest manufacturers to cut output and jobs. The euro region’s third-biggest economy is set to contract this year and next, the most prolonged slump since the end of World War II, Italy’s employers’ association Confindustria said on Dec. 16.

Italian consumers were more pessimistic than the European counterparts. French consumer spending unexpectedly rebounded in November as stimulus measures and declining energy prices cushioned the impact of deteriorating economic growth, Insee, the national statistics office in Paris, said today. Consumer confidence for January in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, was unchanged, a separate report showed yesterday.

Job Cuts

Companies in Italy’s $2.3 trillion economy cut jobs and stepped up layoffs to weather the global economic slowdown and credit crunch. Telecom Italia SpA, the country’s largest phone company plans to trim another 4,000 jobs after paring its revenue forecast. The company and unions agreed in September on a plan to eliminate 5,000 positions by 2010 on a voluntary basis.

As slumping consumer confidence holds back demand for its cars, Fiat SpA, Italy’s biggest manufacturer will shut three of its biggest Italian plants for two additional weeks. The carmaker also announced it will temporarily lay off 48,000 workers, more than half its Italian staff, through Jan. 10.

A record number of Italian managers were fired this year, Corriere della Sera reported on Dec. 18, citing national company managers’ association Federmanager. About 5,000 of Italy’s 82,000 management positions were eliminated in 2008, compared with 3,000 last year when the economy first began showing signs of a slowdown, the newspaper said.

Sales Falling

Italian retail sales fell in October, a separate report showed today. An index compiled by the Rome-based national statistics office, Istat, dropped 0.3 percent from a revised gain of 0.2 percent in September. Istat originally reported a monthly gain of 0.3 percent in October.

Consumers are getting some relief from a plunge in oil prices that is cutting gasoline and heating costs and bringing down the inflation rate. Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in November, the slowest pace in 11 months, as lower energy costs and the recession made it harder for producers and retailers to raise prices. The inflation rate had reached a six-year high of 4.1 percent in August. The price of crude has fallen by more than two thirds to less than $34 a barrel this month from a record $147.27 on July 11.

Christmas Gloom

Italian workers, concerned about the recession, will spend less of their annual Christmas bonus than last year and put more money aside to cope with harder economic times, retail association Confcommercio said.

To boost spending, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s government on Nov. 28 presented an 80 billion-euro ($115 billion) economic stimulus plan that includes cash payments to low-income families. The government will also force banks to link new variable-rate mortgages to the European Central Bank’s benchmark rate, rather than money-market rates, which have surged.

The ECB has cut its key interest rate by 175 basis points to 2.5 percent since early October to combat recession and investors bet it will lower borrowing costs to at least 2 percent in January, Eonia forward contracts show. Policy makers have indicated in recent days that they’re reluctant to decrease rates much further.

Isae conducted its survey of 4,000 companies between Dec. 1 and Dec. 19.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lorenzo Totaro at ltotaro@bloomberg.net




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Chile’s Copper Windfall Props Up Spending as Ecuador Defaults

By Heather Walsh

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Chilean homemaker Majorie Rojo shrugs when asked about the crash in the price of copper, the engine of her nation’s economy.

“I don’t know anything about that -- nothing, zero,” Rojo, 28, said as she bounced her 19-month-old son in her arms at a government daycare center in Santiago.

Rojo has little reason to fret about the metal’s 68 percent drop from a record reached in May. For the time being, President Michelle Bachelet says $28 billion in savings, amassed when copper prices were higher, will protect state-run services from spending cuts as global economic growth slows to 0.9 percent next year from 2.5 percent in 2008, according to the World Bank.

“A country like Chile stands out for being very forward- looking by putting away the copper windfall,” said Alberto Ramos, a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist in New York. Other countries will have to “cut spending or keep spending and have high deficits. There is no easy way out.”

Santiago’s stock index has fallen 23 percent this year, about half as much as the benchmark for neighboring Brazil. Still, the commodities crash may catch up with Chile if the crisis worsens, said Sergio Zapata, an analyst at Banchile Inversiones.

The peso has weakened 21 percent against the dollar this year, making it the region’s second-worst performing currency tracked by Bloomberg, behind the Brazilian real.

“Chile isn’t immune to the crisis,” Zapata said. “But it’s on a relatively better footing.”

Return to Democracy

After Chile’s return to democracy in 1990, the ruling coalition broadened policies to control spending put in place under former dictator Augusto Pinochet by University of Chicago- trained economists. Since then, the country has earned the highest credit rating in South America. Moody’s Investors Service rates Chile’s $2.25 billion in foreign bonds A2 and said Nov. 20 that the debt may merit an upgrade.

To guard against price swings, the country linked its budget in 2001 to the long-term outlook for copper. Chile, which relies on the metal for about a quarter of government revenue, based 2008 expenditures on a price of $1.37 a pound, less than half the average this year.

That policy is helping to insulate Chile from the kind of funding cuts or increased borrowing confronting Venezuela, Argentina and Ecuador, Ramos said.

Five-year credit-default swaps based on Chilean bonds fell 3.5 basis points yesterday to 2.4450 percentage points, according to CMA Datavision. This means it costs $244,500 to protect $10 million of Chilean debt from default, the least among nine Latin American countries tracked by Bloomberg.

Oil ‘Earthquake’

It costs $3.25 million to protect equal amount of Venezuelan bonds, $4.57 million to insure Argentine assets and $5.9 million to guarantee Ecuador’s debt.

Ecuador this month defaulted on foreign bonds after a slump in oil, its biggest export. Argentina nationalized $24 billion in private pension funds, fueling speculation the government was seeking cash to prop up its finances, Ramos said.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez warned Nov. 17 that his nation should brace itself as an “earthquake” cuts oil revenue. Crude has plunged 73 percent from a July record to $39.91 a barrel. Venezuela is basing its 2009 budget on a price of $60.

Chile’s rainy-day savings from copper should be enough to fill any budget holes for three or four years, said Julio Dittborn, a congressional finance committee member. Government spending next year will prop up an economy that otherwise would stagnate or shrink, he said.

More Spending

In November, Congress approved a spending increase of 5.7 percent to 20.7 trillion pesos ($33 billion) for 2009. Chile will likely have a budget deficit of 0.5 percent of gross domestic product, or $850 million, which can be financed from the funds, said Juan Pablo Castro, an economist at Banco Santander Chile SA in Santiago.

Latin American governments will face average deficits of 2.1 percent in 2009, after an estimated 0.4 percent this year, Credit Suisse Group AG said Dec. 11.

“When there was a boom, there wasn’t a flood of wealth,” Castro said. The drop in copper “isn’t going to mean poverty.”

A drop in investment in mines will restrain Chile’s GDP. The economy will expand 0.7 percent in 2009, slowing from estimated 3.8 percent growth this year, said David Duarte, an analyst in New York at 4Cast Inc.

‘Main Driver’

“The main driver of the economy, which is investment, appears to be coming to a halt,” Duarte said. “We see a lot of projects being halted or postponed.”

Phoenix-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., London- based Anglo American Plc and BHP Billiton Ltd., headquartered in Melbourne, have shelved or delayed $3.1 billion of Chilean projects in the past month.

Copper for March delivery rose 1.4 percent to $1.3455 a pound yesterday on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It touched a record $4.2605 a pound on May 5.

The price may fall 26 percent more to $1 a pound, said Cesar Perez-Novoa, a managing director at brokerage Celfin Capital SA.

Even so, homemaker Rojo isn’t alone in lacking concern.

At a pedestrian walkway in downtown Santiago, street vendor Estela Rivero, 53, said she didn’t know what copper is used for or how much it costs.

“I don’t have the slightest idea,” Rivero said, as she sat a few blocks from the copper-trimmed headquarters of state-owned Codelco, the world’s biggest producer by output last year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Walsh in Santiago at hlwalsh@bloomberg.net.





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U.K. November Home Loans Fall to Lowest Since 1994

By Brian Swint

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. mortgage approvals fell to the lowest in 14 years in November as the contracting economy discouraged buyers and financial institutions declined to pass on the central bank’s interest-rate cuts, the British Bankers’ Association said.

Banks granted 17,773 loans for house purchase, down 61 percent from the same month in 2007, the London-based BBA, which represents the U.K.’s biggest banks, said today in a statement. The number of home loans was 20,767 in October.

The British economy shrank 0.6 percent in the third quarter, more than previously estimated, the statistics office said today. While the Bank of England has reduced the benchmark interest rate to the lowest since 1951, banks that have been stung by the global financial crisis are reluctant to lend against houses as their value declines, and potential buyers are concerned about losing their jobs in the slump.


“With house prices still falling, the encouragement of lower costs had not filtered through by the month-end,” David Dooks, statistics director at the BBA, said in the statement. “People remain concerned about the impacts of the rapidly slowing economy on their personal finances.”

House prices will drop 10 percent in 2009, Hometrack Ltd., a market researcher, predicted yesterday. The number of repossessions will almost double to 75,000 next year, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said last week.

U.K. mortgage rates fell by less than half of the Bank of England’s 1.5 percentage point interest-rate cut last month, central bank data showed Dec. 9.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net.




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Dutch Economic Expansion Came to a Standstill in Third Quarter

By Jurjen van de Pol

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Dutch economy came to a standstill in the third quarter as the global financial crisis curbed consumer spending and investment and the country headed for its first recession since 1982.

The economy halted in the three months through September, the statistics bureau in The Hague said today on its Web site.

The global credit crisis is aggravating a world economic slowdown, damping exports and hurting corporate investment. The Dutch economy, the fifth largest in the euro region, will contract 0.75 percent next year and the national budget will show a deficit for the first time since 2005, the government planning agency said on Dec. 8.


Veldhoven, Netherlands-based ASML Holding NV, Europe’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, cut its sales forecast last week and said it will slash more than 10 percent of its workforce as orders slide. With demand down and customers asking to postpone deliveries, ASML said it expects first-half sales to be “substantially lower.”

Today’s report showed that from a year earlier, the Dutch economy grew 1.8 percent in the three months through September, after 3 percent growth in the second quarter.

No European nation will avoid a recession, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said last week as policy makers signaled an initial round of economic stimulus and bank bailouts may be insufficient to counter the slump. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and the Netherlands’ primary trading partner, is on course for its worst contraction in more than 15 years. Europe’s car sales plunged 26 percent last month, the biggest drop since 1999.

Confidence Grows

Consumer confidence rose to minus 28 from minus 29 this month, the bureau said in separate report today. The sentiment index exceeds the median of seven estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Producer confidence fell to minus 20.1 from minus 9.1 this month. Economists forecast December producer confidence at minus 11.

Consumer spending rose 0.2 percent in October from a year earlier, compared with a revised 0.5 percent annual gain in September, the bureau said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jurjen van de Pol in Amsterdam at jvandepol@bloomberg.net




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French Consumer Spending Rises as Inflation Slows

By Helene Fouquet

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- French consumer spending unexpectedly rebounded in November as stimulus measures and declining energy prices cushioned the impact of deteriorating economic growth.

Spending by consumers, which accounts for about 15 percent of the economy, increased 0.3 percent from November, when it fell a revised 0.5 percent, Insee, the national statistics office in Paris, said today. Economists expected a 0.2 percent decline, the median of 17 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. From a year earlier, spending rose 1 percent, accelerating from the revised 0.6 percent gain in October.

With oil prices retreating from their July peak and inflation slowing, consumer spending helped France dodge a recession in the third quarter. The cost of a barrel of oil is down 70 percent from its mid-summer record and French inflation slowed to 1.6 percent last month. President Nicolas Sarkozy’s 26 billion-euro ($37.5 billion) stimulus package may combine with the lower inflation rate to support economic growth.

The slower price growth “freed some purchasing power for consumers,” Mathieu Plane, an economist at Paris-based Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “But in the long run, even with inflation falling near to zero next year, it won’t be enough to compensate for the loss of jobs and revenue.”

Gross domestic product will probably decline 0.8 percent this quarter, the most since 1974, after a 0.1 percent increase in the three months through September, Insee economists forecaset on Dec. 19.

Full-Year Contraction

The economy will shrink 0.4 percent in the first quarter, and 0.1 percent in the following three months, Insee predicted. OFCE’s Plane said he expects a full-year contraction of 0.4 percent in 2009, adding that France faces the risk of deflation, “which has to be avoided absolutely.”

Spending on cars in France declined 2.1 percent in November from the previous month, and purchases of clothes and leather goods dropped 1 percent, compared with a 0.6 decline in October, Insee said today. Spending on home appliances and furniture rose 3.4 percent after rising 0.2 percent the month before.

European car sales plunged 26 percent in November, the biggest monthly drop since 1999. Automakers Renault SA and PSA Peugeot Citroen are cutting jobs and idling plants to confront the slump. Valeo SA, France’s second-biggest maker of auto components, yesterday said it will eliminate 1,600 positions.

France has pledged 1 billion euros of low-interest loans to carmakers’ financing units, of which 779 million euros has already been paid out. The government is also funding 220 million euros in sales incentives on new cars and 100 million euros in assistance to smaller auto-parts suppliers.

To contact the reporters on this story: Helene Fouquet in Paris at Hfouquet1@bloomberg.net.





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U.K. Economy Shrinks Most Since 1990 in Third Quarter

By Svenja O’Donnell

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy shrank the most since 1990 in the third quarter and mortgage lending dropped to the lowest in 14 years as tightening credit exacerbated the slide into recession.

Gross domestic product contracted 0.6 percent from the second quarter, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The drop was bigger than the previous estimate of 0.5 percent, which economists had expected would be confirmed. Home-loan approvals plunged 61 percent to 17,773 in November from a year earlier, the British Bankers’ Association said.

The Bank of England and Prime Minister Gordon Brown are struggling to shore up the economy as banks keep a grip on lending and global trade slumps. The central bank has already cut its benchmark interest rate to 2 percent, the lowest since 1951, and may move again next month. Brown meanwhile is planning new measures to revive the flow of credit and protect workers.

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” said Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “The weakness is very broad based. We think interest rates are going to go all the way close to zero.”

The pound, which has lost almost a quarter of its value against the currencies of the U.K.’s biggest trade partners this year, was little changed after the figures. It was at 94.402 pence per euro and traded at $1.4795 against the dollar.

From a year ago, the economy grew 0.3 percent, the same pace as estimated a month ago. Last year’s growth of 3 percent for the whole of 2007 was the strongest since 2000.

Services Decline

An index of service industries dropped 0.2 percent in the quarter through October. That compares with a decline of 0.5 percent in the three months finishing in September, the biggest since the third quarter of 1990.

Manufacturing production fell by 1.6 percent in the third quarter, the biggest decline since the fourth quarter of 2001, the statistics office said. Industrial production including mining and oil and gas output dropped 1.4 percent.

Hotels, distribution and catering, which includes retailers, fell 2.1 percent in the third quarter, the most since the third quarter of 1980. Business services and finance shrank by 0.6 percent after a 0.5 percent decline in the second quarter.

The figures add to pressure on Brown’s government to bring forward more measures helping businesses and consumers. Brown yesterday said he was “angry” at banks for triggering the financial crisis and frustrated that they’re still rationing credit after tapping the government for extra funds.

Lending Rationed

Brown already has pledged a 20-billion ($29.5 billion) pound fiscal boost and 50 billion pounds to recapitalize banks. He will announce more measures in January.

The current account deficit swelled to 7.7 billion pounds ($11.4 billion) in the third quarter from 6.4 billion pounds in the three months through June. The previous figure was revised lower from 11 billion pounds because of new information about foreign investment flows, the statistics office said.

The central bank also has a 200 billion-pound Special Liquidity Scheme to help banks, and the Treasury has offered institutions 250 billion pounds in additional credit.

Bank of England policy makers have suggested they’re prepared to reduce borrowing costs further after cutting the key rate by 2.5 percentage points to 2 percent over the past two months. Deputy Governor John Gieve told the BBC yesterday that the bank failed to predict the severity of the downturn.

Fed’s Action

“There’s further negative news to come,” said George Buckley, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “We are going to see negative GDP numbers for most if not all of 2009. We expect the bank to cut rates to 0.5 percent by the end of the first quarter.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve last week lowered its rate close to zero. The European Central Bank has cut its key interest rate by 1.75 percentage points to 2.5 percent since early October, and investors expect another reduction in January, Eonia forward contracts show.

In Britain, companies including Woolworths Group Plc and MFI Retail Ltd. have fired staff and entered bankruptcy administration in the past month. Woolworths’s U.K. stores will close by Jan. 5 unless a buyer is found, adding up to 27,000 workers to the jobless roles.

Unemployment rose at the fastest pace since 1991 in November, the Office for National Statistics said Dec. 17. The number of people receiving jobless benefits rose 75,700 to 1.07 million, the highest level since July 2000.

Britain’s housing slump is also deepening, with Hometrack Ltd yesterday predicting home values may fall a further 10 percent next year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Svenja O’Donnell in London at sodonnell@bloomberg.net.


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Europe Energy Day Ahead: Korea to Raise Fuel Tariffs; Oil Falls

By Shinhye Kang

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea, Asia's third-biggest crude-oil buyer, will increase the tariffs on fuel imports as inflation slows and global oil prices fall.

Crude oil fell for a second day in New York on speculation that a deepening global recession is reducing fuel demand in Asia, undermining OPEC's efforts to boost prices by cutting production.

EXCLUSIVES

Crude Oil May Rally to $93 on Demark Indicator: Chart of Day

Crude oil will rebound to $93 a barrel as technical indicators show that the current price decline has exhausted itself, according to fund manager Daniel Bruno Sanz.

MOST READ MARKETS STORIES

China's Crude-Oil Production May Rise 1% This Year, CNPC Says

China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, may increase crude production by 1.2 percent to 189 million metric tons this year, or 3.78 million barrels a day, the nation's largest oil company said.

Crude Oil Falls as Asian Demand Declines on Deepening Recession

Crude oil fell for a second day in New York on speculation that a deepening global recession is reducing fuel demand in Asia, undermining OPEC's efforts to boost prices by cutting production.

TOP ENERGY COMPANY STORIES

West Australia Selects James Price Point as Preferred LNG Hub

Western Australia selected James Price Point as the location for a proposed liquefied natural gas production hub in the state's far north-west Kimberley region.

Blackham in Talks to Sell Stake in Coal Project in Australia

Blackham Resources Ltd., planning to develop a $2.5 billion plant to convert coal into clean diesel in Australia, is in talks with large energy companies to sell a stake in its mining operation to help fund project costs.

Contact Energy's Share of Power Market Drops to Five-Year Low

Contact Energy Ltd.'s share of the retail power market in New Zealand fell to the lowest in at least five years after plans to increase prices prompted more customers to switch electricity suppliers.

Thailand's PTT to Spend 229.3 Billion Baht Over Next 5 Years

PTT Pcl, Thailand's biggest energy company, plans to spend 229.3 billion baht ($6.6 billion) to expand its businesses between 2009 and 2013.

Gas Negara Expects Sales Volume to Rise as Much as 33% in 2009

PT Perusahaan Gas Negara, Indonesia's biggest natural gas distributor, expects sales volume to rise as much as 33 percent next year.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM NEWSPAPERS

China Power Companies May Lose 70 Billion Yuan, Securities Says

China's power producers may post 70 billion yuan ($10.2 billion) in combined losses this year because of rising costs and falling demand, the China Securities Journal reported, without saying where it obtained the information.

Ancora May Buy Drilling Services Company, Bisnis Indonesia Says

PT Ancora Indonesia Resources plans to buy an oil drilling services company, Bisnis Indonesia reported, citing President Director Usman H. Darus.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shinhye Kang in Seoul at skang24@bloomberg.net;





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Nobody Is More Hopeless With Money Than the Rich: Matthew Lynn

Commentary by Matthew Lynn

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- There should be certain things you can take for granted about wealthy people. They like big yachts. They play golf. And they are usually smart with their finances.

After all, if they weren’t good at handling money, they wouldn’t have managed to accumulate so much of it.

And yet one of the interesting angles on the credit crunch is just how hopeless the wealthy have been at managing their cash.

Examples are everywhere of how some tycoons have come badly unstuck during the market meltdown of the past few months.

The most spectacular is Bernard Madoff, who was arrested earlier this month after owning up to a $50 billion fraud. All of his clients were among the well-heeled, including the foundations of filmmaker Steven Spielberg and the New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon. All of them were complacent about Madoff’s apparent ability to produce stunning investment returns year after year without really explaining how he did it.

In Britain, David Ross, one of the founders of Europe’s largest mobile-phone retailer Carphone Warehouse Group Plc, stepped down from the management board when it turned out he had been using company stock as collateral for big loans. Germany’s billionaire Merckle family has also run into trouble with debt- financed loans and wrong bets on Volkswagen AG stock.


Russian Billionaires

In China, Huang Guangyu, the former chairman of Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd. and one of the country’s richest individuals, was arrested last month on suspicion of stock manipulation. As for Russia’s billionaires, it is best not to inquire about the state of their finances. The 25 wealthiest Russians on Forbes magazine’s list of billionaires, including Oleg Deripaska and Roman Abramovich, lost a combined $230 billion from May to October this year. Even in Moscow, that must hurt.

It seems a sure bet that when Forbes publishes its next list, there will be fewer zeros next to the names. It might even have to become a millionaires list.

There are three lessons to be drawn from the bungling of wealth by the world’s rich people.

First, there are a lot of bubble billionaires out there. For the last 20 years, borrowing money and using it to buy assets was a great strategy. It made you rich. But rather like ice fishing, it is a skill that is useful only in a particular set of circumstances. That isn’t to disparage leverage. It takes a lot of guts to borrow on that scale, and most of us don’t have the stomach for it. But the rules of the game have flipped. On the way down, leverage hurts you as much as it helps on the way up.

Taste for Gambling

Next, the rich like to take risks. That is how they made their fortunes, rather than by working in, say, the local town- planning office. They hardly need the money. Nor are they hedge- fund managers who have to keep hitting 15 percent annual gains to keep their investors on board. The only explanation is that they like to gamble. It’s in the gene pool, and they can no more change it than they can the color of their eyes.

Lastly, we have been through a period of extraordinary excess. A world in which Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal can buy an Airbus A380 for his own use, and Russian oligarchs buy soccer teams for little more than their amusement, is one in which the cost of cutting a dash with the billionaire set has mushroomed out of control. It doesn’t matter how rich you are. There is always a guy in the next yacht who has more than you do.

The wealthy are, naturally enough, more prone to peer-group envy than most people. There is nothing hermit-like about them. That’s why they became rich. Who wants a private box at a sports event when someone else owns the whole team? It gets on your nerves. And in a desperate bid to keep up, the wealthy got greedier and greedier, until they took one chance too many. And it all blew up in their faces.

Of course, there are some exceptions to the rule. Warren Buffett remains resolutely frugal, which is why he hangs on to his fortune. For most other rich people, “smart with money” is a myth that has been shattered this year.

(Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Matthew Lynn in London at matthewlynn@bloomberg.net.




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Christmas Eve to Bring Rain, Milder Temperatures to Northeast

By Brian K. Sullivan

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The third winter storm system to strike the U.S. Northeast in a week will bring rain to New York City and southern New England on Christmas Eve and begin a period of milder weather that may last until January.

Temperatures in New York are forecast to climb to 50 degrees Fahrenheit (10 Celsius) on Dec. 24, from about 23 degrees today, according to the National Weather Service in Upton, New York.

“It is hard to believe stepping out the door this morning that 48 hours from now it is going to be raining,” said Tom Kines, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.

The rain will come as much of the Northeast has been covered with ice and snow, starting with an ice storm on Dec. 11-12 that knocked out power to more than 1 million in New York and New England. Some areas from New York to Boston received more than 12 inches (30.5 centimeters) of snow from a pair of storms this past weekend.

Across the U.S., milder air is going to chase Arctic air back into Canada through early January, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

“Philadelphia, New York City and Washington D.C. will see 50s late this week while Boston hits the 40s,” Rouiller said in an e-mail. “Any threat of longer term Arctic invasions into the country will remain minimal into the first week of January.”

Christmas Snow Cover

The snow will absorb most of this week’s rain, keeping the ground covered through the Christmas holiday, Kines said. The region may then see more melting as temperatures climb over the weekend, potentially producing heavy fog and disrupting post- holiday travel, Kines said.

Rouiller said a mild Pacific jet stream will take hold over much of the U.S. and southern Canada this week, lifting temperatures.

“As this new pattern change takes hold over the next few days, a strong warm-up will develop across the eastern half of the country,” Rouiller said.

The upper Midwest and Great Lakes will also see milder temperatures, with highs in the 30s and 40s, from single digits in some areas today, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net





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China's Crude-Oil Production May Rise 1% This Year, CNPC Says

By Winnie Zhu

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, may increase crude production by 1.2 percent to 189 million metric tons this year, or 3.78 million barrels a day, the nation's largest oil company said.

Gas output may rise 14 percent to 76 billion cubic meters, China National Petroleum Corp., parent of Hong Kong-listed PetroChina Co., said in a statement on its Web site today.

The country's annual crude production grew on average 2.04 percent over the past 30 years while gas output increased by 5.74 percent, the Beijing-based company said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Winnie Zhu in Shanghai at wzhu4@bloomberg.net





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Russia Says Ukraine’s Unpaid Gas Debt Threatens Economic Growth

By Greg Walters

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Russia accused Ukraine of threatening its economic growth by withholding about $2 billion in payment for natural-gas supplies.

“Not paying for gas effectively lowers the production cost of Ukrainian goods and makes them more competitive on foreign markets, including in Russia,” the Kremlin press service said today in an e-mailed statement.

Russia has told Ukraine, which ships about four-fifths of the nation’s gas exports to Europe via its pipelines, that it will cut deliveries in the event of a failure to be paid for energy shipments in 2008. The gas exporter shut off deliveries three years ago amid a price disagreement.

The Moscow-based Institute of Energy and Finance estimates that each ruble in capital investment adds five rubles to economic growth, meaning non-payment by Ukraine could reduce Russia’s gross domestic product by 301 billion rubles ($10.6 billion), representing lost growth of 0.7 percent, the press service said.

Viktor Zubkov, chairman of Russia’s gas exporter OAO Gazprom, said yesterday that Ukraine should be held “fully responsible” for any disruption in Russian gas supplies to Europe as the sides struggle to resolve the dispute by a Jan. 1 deadline.

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Walters in Moscow gwalters1@bloomberg.net





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China Power Companies May Lose 70 Billion Yuan, Securities Says

By Jiang Jianguo

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- China’s power producers may post 70 billion yuan ($10.2 billion) in combined losses this year because of rising costs and falling demand, the China Securities Journal reported, without saying where it obtained the information.

Some utilities are seeking financial aid from the government, the newspaper, which is affiliated with Xinhua News Agency, said. Power companies have an average debt-to-asset ratio of 60 percent to 70 percent, falling short of the more than 90 percent threshold needed to qualify for government aid, the report said, citing Wang Wei, analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co.


To contact the reporter on this story: Jiang Jianguo in Shanghai at jjiang@bloomberg.net




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West Australia Selects James Price Point as LNG Hub

By Jason Scott

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Western Australia, generator of a third of the country's exports, selected James Price Point as the location for a proposed liquefied natural gas production hub in the state's far north-west Kimberley region.

``James Price Point has been declared the location to most likely work best for the Kimberley community, for the environment, for industry and for Western Australia's future economic development,'' Premier Colin Barnett told reporters in Perth.

Western Australia is examining potential sites for the LNG production hub that would provide a location for onshore processing of gas from fields in the Browse Basin, including Woodside Petroleum Ltd.'s Browse LNG venture. Some environmental groups oppose any development of a gas manufacturing complex in the undeveloped Kimberley region.


The likelihood of developing a gas hub in the Kimberley was reduced in September when Inpex Holdings Inc., Japan's largest oil explorer, decided to locate the processing plant for its proposed $20 billion Ichthys LNG project in Darwin, Northern Territory, instead of Western Australia. Barnett, who wants to win the Ichthys project back for the state, is pushing for the development of a Kimberley LNG hub.

James Price Point was selected because it could meet heritage and environmental requirements, could accommodate more than two LNG processing operators and had no settlements within 20 kilometers, Barnett said in a statement today. Three other short-listed sites -- North Head, Gourdon Bay and Anjo Peninsula -- were dismissed.

Environmental Concerns

The environmental risks of development are likely to be manageable at James Price Point north of the tourist town of Broome, Paul Vogel, chairman of the Environmental Protection Authority, said on Dec. 19. The risk of expansion being greatly constrained at the site is likely to be low, he said.

The venue for today's announcement attracted about 30 environmental protesters concerned that an LNG hub in the Kimberley will disrupt whale-breeding grounds.

``Barnett's obsession for industrial development in the Kimberley effectively declares war on Australia's last wilderness,'' Kevin Blatchford, vice president of environmental group Save The Kimberley, said in a statement. ``We can promise the state government and the oil and gas proponents wishing to set up shop at James Price Point a gloves off, tooth and claw fight.''

In an interview on Dec. 18, Barnett said James Price Point was not on ``that part of the Kimberley coast that most people identify as that pristine spectacular coast line.''

Browse Basin

The Browse Basin, off the coast of the Kimberley, has about 30,000 trillion cubic feet of LNG resources. The precinct will be built on about 1,000 hectares, which Barnett has said is a small amount of land ``in an area twice the size of Victoria state.''

Perth-based Woodside, operator of the Browse LNG venture, previously said it supports the state's site selection process and is waiting for the final choice to be made. The company expects to decide by the year-end whether to develop Browse gas through a project at the Kimberley hub or by piping the gas south to existing LNG projects on the Burrup Peninsula.

``I am confident that the Woodside joint venture partners will choose to use the precinct rather than pursue the option of piping gas 850 kilometers to the Burrup Peninsula,'' Barnett said in a statement today.

Woodside's Choice

Woodside expects to select a site for its LNG project by mid-2009, Betsy Donaghey, senior vice president of the company's Browse LNG development, told reporters in Perth. ``We welcome the announcement,'' Donaghey said. ``It now allows us to compare this site to our other option of bringing gas down to Karratha.''

BHP Billiton Ltd., BP Plc, Chevron and Shell have stakes in Woodside's Browse venture. Shell said in April it may favor a floating LNG project for its Prelude field in the Browse Basin to avoid having to build a pipeline or construct a plant in an undeveloped and environmentally sensitive region.

Inpex and partner Total SA will decide whether to build the Ichthys LNG project late next year or early 2010 and production may start in late 2014 or early 2015. Barnett said today he was in regular contact with Inpex and hadn't given up on luring the project to Western Australia.

LNG is natural gas that has been chilled to liquid form, reducing it to one-six-hundredth of its original volume at minus 161 degrees Celsius (minus 259 Fahrenheit), for transportation by ship to destinations not connected by pipeline. On arrival, it's turned back into gas for distribution to power plants, factories and households.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Scott in Perth at Jscott14@bloomberg.net




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Woodside’s Oil Rig Remains Suspended by Tropical Cyclone Billy

By Jason Scott

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer, said operations on a rig off Australia’s far northwest coast were still suspended due to Tropical Cyclone Billy.

“Our Sedco 703 rig is still evacuated and we’re still monitoring the situation,” said Yvonne Ball, a spokeswoman for the Perth-based company. The rig, which was drilling an appraisal well in the Browse Basin, is 425 kilometers (264 miles) north- northwest of Broome and was evacuated on Dec. 16.

At 9 a.m. Perth time, Tropical Cyclone Billy was estimated to be 85 kilometers north of Broome and 55 kilometers west- southwest of Beagle Bay. It was moving southwest at 15 kilometers an hour, according to Western Australia’s Fire and Emergency Services.

Australia’s northwest, the site of most of the nation’s oil and gas production, may have more tropical cyclones than average this season, the Bureau of Meteorology forecast in October. The region may have five to seven cyclones from Nov. 1 to April 30, up from four last year, the bureau said.

Gales with gusts as strong as 100 kilometers an hour are likely about the Dampier Peninsula including Broome today before easing this evening, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. Rainfall in the southern Kimberley should gradually ease as Billy moves out to sea later today.

BHP Billiton Ltd. is continuing to load iron ore at Port Hedland, spokeswoman Kelly Quirke said.

“We are securing any non-essential equipment at the port and we continue to monitor the cyclone path,” she said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Scott in Perth at Jscott14@bloomberg.net





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Gas Negara Expects Fuel Sales to Rise as Much as 33%

By Leony Aurora

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- PT Perusahaan Gas Negara, Indonesia's biggest natural gas distributor, expects fuel sales to rise as much as 33 percent next year as it increases supply to utilities.

The company may sell on average between 700 million cubic feet a day and 800 million cubic feet a day of gas in 2009, depending on economic conditions, President Director Hendi Prio Santoso said during a conference call with analysts and reporters today. That compares with as much as 600 million cubic feet a day this year.

Gas Negara expects utilities to account for as much as 40 percent of its sales next year, Santoso said. The Jakarta-based company signed three new contracts this year to supply 210 million cubic feet of gas a day to power plants operated by state utility PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara.

Increased sales to domestic utilities will more than offset declining demand from factories.

Indonesia's export growth may fall below 10 percent next year from an expected 12 percent this year as a global recession saps demand, Trade Minister Mari Pangestu said Dec. 8. Some industrial customers have requested Gas Negara to reduce their contracted supply, Santoso said.

``This small hiccup has been remedied by the surge of volume take up in the power sector,'' Santoso said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Leony Aurora in Jakarta at laurora@bloomberg.net.





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