Economic Calendar

Monday, October 6, 2008

Freddie sells $2 bln bills at lower rates vs wk ago

 (Attaches to news alert with corrected 6-month bill rate)

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (FRE.P: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) sold $2 billion of bills on Monday at lower interest rates and demand was mixed compared with sales of the same maturities a week ago.

Freddie Mac on Monday sold $1 billion of three-month bills due Jan. 5, 2009 at a 2.010 percent rate, down from 2.790 percent for a $1 billion sale of the same maturity on Sept. 29.

Freddie Mac also sold $1 billion of six-month bills due April 6, 2009 at a 2.330 percent rate, compared with 3.190 percent for the same size sale of the same maturity a week earlier.

Demand for the three-month bills was lower than a week earlier, based on a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.42 compared with 3.89 on Sept. 29.

The bid-to-cover ratio for the 6-month bills was higher than a week earlier, based on a bid-to-cover-ratio of 3.27 compared with 3.15 on Sept. 29.

A bid-to-cover ratio reflects the amount of bids compared with the amount offered. A lower ratio indicates weaker demand. (Reporting by Caryn Trokie; Editing by James Dalgleish)   




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Mid-Day Report: Dollar and Yen Surge as Global Stocks Tumble

Market Overview |  Written by ActionForex.com |  Oct 06 08 14:09 GMT | 

Risk aversion remains the main theme in the forex markets in early US session. Investors panic of deepening of global credit crisis. Dow opens sharp lower and falls to new three year low below 10100 level following weakness in European and Asian stock markets. MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped most since 1997 while MSCI World Index lost 2.5%. Fed said it will double its auctions of cash to as much as $900b and is considering additional steps to "foster liquid money-market conditions." The 28-day and 84-day Term Auction Facility (TAF) operations are raised to $150b each. The two forward TAF auctions in Nov will be increased to $150b each too. Crude Oil breaches $90 level on concern of slowing global demand. But Gold rebounds strongly on safe haven buying. Dollar strengthens across the board with dollar index reaching as high as 81.44. Though, the yen is even stronger.

Euro is one of the weakest currency today as investors are dissatisfied of the lack of a Eurozone wide bailout plan from European Governments. IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn urged European governments to prepare to put in in place a "collective line of defense". The problems in Eurozone finance sectors prompted actions from individual governments. German government agreed a second bailout package for Hypo Real estate after German banks and insurers shocked the markets by withdrawing support for the original rescue for HRE. German Government also pledged to guarantee private deposits, covering more than 500b euros in deposits. BNP Paribas took over Belgian and Luxembourg businesses of Fortis in a spectacular cross-border rescue. Danish government agreed with banks to set up a $6.5b liquidation fund while the government will guarantee all bank deposits in Denmark. Banks agreed to pay up to $6.5b over two years to take over troubled financial institutions. Kaupthing Bank hf and Landsbanki hf, Iceland's biggest banks, may sell overseas assets and repatriate the proceeds in a bid to bolster the krona and alleviate the impact of the credit crunch. Unicredit, the largest bank in Italy is seeking $8.2b funding to strengthen the balance sheet.

On the data front, Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped further to -27.8 in Oct. Canadian building permits plunged sharply by -13.5% in Aug, but Ivey PMI unexpectedly improved to 61 in Sep.

RBA will announce rate decision in the coming Asian session and markets are expecting a 50 bps cut to bring OCR down to 6.50%.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0751; (P) 1.0796; (R1) 1.0869; More.

USD/CAD's rise from 1.0297 is still in progress and extends further to as high as 1.0977 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.0829 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 0.9823 to 1.0819 from 1.0297 at 1.0913 now encourage further rise to 100% projection at 1.1293. On the downside, below 1.0829 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But further rise is still expected after brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 1.0791/98 (61.8% retracement of 1.1874 to 0.9056 at 1.0798, 61.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0378 from 0.9974 at 1.0791) confirm that medium term rise from 0.9056 has resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0378 from 0.9974 at 1.1296. On the downside, while some pull back might be seen, break of 1.0297 is now needed to indicate at top is formed. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart - Forex Newsletters, Forex Outlook, Forex Review, Forex Signal

Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Oct -27.8 -26.6 -20.2
12:30 CAD Canada Building permits Aug -13.50% -1.00% 1.80%
14:00 CAD Canada Ivey PMI Sep 61 51 51.5 



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US STOCKS-Wall St tumbles on credit, recession worry

 (Updates with market extending losses)

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday as investors feared that the widening fallout from the credit crisis will push the economy into recession.

A slide of more than 3 percent in oil prices underscored concerns about the toll of the credit crisis on the outlook for global economic growth.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 309.59 points, or 3.00 percent, at 10,015.79. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 37.99 points, or 3.46 percent, at 1,061.24. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 75.04 points, or 3.85 percent, at 1,872.35.

Earlier the Nasdaq fell by more than 4 percent. (Reporting by Ellis Mnyandu; Editing by Kenneth Barry)       




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London Session Recap

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Forex.com | Oct 06 08 12:08 GMT |

The downward pressure on euro continued into the London session on news that the credit crunch has intensified across the pond. Germany faces the potential collapse of a major property lender, whose previous rescue package was withdrawn. Moreover, several European governments are now moving to guarantee private deposits in an attempt to stave off bank runs.

Calls for coordinated intervention abound and these new concerns that the credit problems in Europe could be worse than the US have the common currency beaten down. EUR/USD extended losses and dropped another -40 pips into a close near the 1.3580 mark. The pair made a low near 1.3540 today and we’d expect the next trigger for further downside to be near the 1.3500 zone.

Carry trades continued to be pared as well as global confidence in equities continued to sink like a stone. Asian marts plunged about -4% while stocks in Europe were crushed more than -5% last we checked. Things don’t look any better in the US, with stock futures pointing to a whopping -240 point decline in the Dow Industrials and a -30 point drop in the S&P 500. The Dow is at risk of taking out the psychologically important 10,000 mark which could see things get very ugly.

As such, JPY crosses have been beaten down. EUR/JPY tumbled another -70 pips in London trading to a close near 139.90. Meanwhile, USD/JPY shed about -20 pips into the 103.00 area. Expect volatility in stocks to dictate the price action in JPY crosses some more in the NY session. Given the turmoil in global stock markets, emergency coordinated rate cuts could be in play. If global central banks step in and cut rates, this should see a “relief rally” in stocks and would take JPY crosses higher… at least initially. Stay tuned!

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) Prior Estimate

* 9/29/2008 12:30 GMT US Personal Income AUG -0.70% 0.20%
* 9/29/2008 12:30 GMT US PCE Deflator (YoY) AUG 4.50% 4.50%
* 9/29/2008 12:30 GMT US Personal Spending AUG 0.20% 0.20%
* 9/29/2008 12:30 GMT US PCE Core (MoM) AUG 0.30% 0.20%
* 9/29/2008 12:30 GMT US PCE Core (YoY) AUG 2.40% 2.40%
* 9/29/2008 16:00 GMT AU Quarterly Wage Agreements 2Q 3.7 - -

Forex.com
http://www.forex.com

DISCLAIMER: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase of sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.



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Bank of Canada injects C$800 mln into market

TORONTO, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada injected C$800 million ($734 million) into markets on Monday to lower the overnight interest rate toward the central bank's target and improve liquidity.

The bank operates through Special Purchase and Resale Agreements, or SPRAs, buying securities with the agreement to sell them back in the next business day, effectively injecting money into markets. ($1=$1.10 Canadian) (Reporting by John McCrank; Editing by Peter Galloway)



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Euro Crashes on Chaos in EZ Financial Sector as Policymakers Scramble for A Solution

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by GFT | Oct 06 08 13:27 GMT |

Top Stories

* Global equity markets crash -4% on the open as financial crisis embroils Europe
* Germans follow Greece, Ireland and guarantee deposits at gross liability of >500 Billion euros
* Italy Berlusconi to propose EU-wide bank bail-out fund for 3% of GDP, Germany and France agree - ANSA
* UK Government may re-capitalize banking system
* China, So. Korea and Japan mull bail-out plan - South China Morning Post
* Hypo Real Estate bailout raised to 50 Billion euros shares off -25%
* BNP Paris takes over Belgian part of Fortis beomes biggest deposit bank in Europe
* Short term dollar demand eases in overnight market
* Dollar demand should ease as 2Q comes to an end
* Oil breaks $90/bblas gloom spreads
* Gold off another $10 at $825/oz. as liquidation continues

Overnight Eco

* EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -27.8 record low

Event Risk on Tap

* CAD Building Permits markets looks at -1.4% contraction
* CAD Ivey PMI market sees 51 vs. 51.5 last
* USD Fisher speaks, also Volker and Furgeson speak on financial regulation

Price Action

* USD/JPY trades thorough 103.00 before bouncing as risk aversion reigns supreme
* AUD/USD breaks 7500 as carry slaughtered and markets best on 50bp cut from RBA
* GBP/USD holds the 1.7500 level in relative outperformance but still weak on the night
* EUR/USD: slides all the way to 1.3549 as banking crisis spreads to Europe

At the start of new week of trading, the EURUSD fell hard once again reaching a low of 1.3549 in early European session as the financial sector crisisspread across the Atlantic and European policymakers scrambled over the weekend for a unified solution that did not come.Instead various European governments resorted to ad-hoc measures with Germany agreeing to guarantee all bank deposits in the country. The blanket guarantee by Chancellor Merkel’s government amounts to more than 500 Billion euro open liability - a sum larger than the $700 Billion bailout package passed by US Congress.

In the wake of similar moves by Greece and Ireland last week, Germany had little choice but to act, as policy makers feared a massive outflow of retail funds from the German banking system with savers taking advantage of the regulatory arbitrage that suddenly developed in the banking market. Yet the moves only served to highlight the fractured nature of European monetary union with traders even fearingthe possibility of stress on the euro currency itself.

While we believe that any speculation on the break up the euro is highly unlikely at this point in time, if the crisis of confidence accelerates all scenarios are possible and the current price of the EUR/USDis beginning to reflect this fear premium as markets grapple with the unprecedented turbulence in the global financial sector.With the pair droppingtowardsthe 1.3500 handle the temptation to run stops at that level will increase as we head into North American session and if US equities follow the global meltdown overnight further EURJPY sales could pressure the pair to break below that barrier later in the day.

Meanwhile the yen continues to perform best on a relative basis with USD/JPY hitting 102.84 in late Asian session tonight and the pair continues to be our favorites anti—dollar bet as DJIA average looks to break the key 10K level which is likely to pull USD/JPY towards the 100 level. With no key eco on the calendar, macro flows will dominate trade once again and investor confidence in the various G-3 government schemesenacted over the past several days will be tested once more.

FX Upcoming
Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 8:30 12:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (AUG) 1.4% -1.8%
CAD 10:00 14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (SEP) 51 51.5

Boris Schlossberg
http://www.gftforex.com

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India Cuts Bank Cash Ratio for First Time in 5 Years

By Kartik Goyal and Anoop Agrawal

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- India allowed banks to set aside smaller reserves for the first time in five years to boost cash in the financial system and calm markets after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the sale of Merrill Lynch & Co.

The Reserve Bank of India reduced its so-called cash reserve ratio to 8.5 percent from 9 percent effective Oct. 11, according to a statement in Mumbai. The cut will add 200 billion rupees ($4.2 billion) to the financial system, the bank said.

The move is the first policy action by Duvvuri Subbarao since he took over as governor last month, paring back increases of 4 percentage points since Dec. 2006 by his predecessor Y.V. Reddy. Central banks around the globe have injected billions of dollars into the financial system to spur lending and prevent the world from slipping into recession.

``Investor sentiment will improve because liquidity had been tight in the domestic market long enough and was probably on the verge of creating undesired results,'' said Parthasarathi Mukherjee, president of treasury at Axis Bank Ltd. ``Global liquidity tightness made such a move necessary.''

Money-market rates have climbed worldwide as banks hoarded cash on speculation the seizure in credit markets is deepening and may prompt more financial institutions to collapse. The U.S. Federal Reserve today said it will double its auctions of cash to banks to as much as $900 billion and is considering further steps to unfreeze short-term lending markets.

`Right Direction'

``The rate cut is in the right direction; the impact has to be felt and understood before RBI takes further measures,'' Koushik Chatterjee, chief financial officer of Tata Steel Ltd., said by telephone. ``There was a liquidity crunch in the market, and interbank rates had soared.''

The rate at which Indian banks lend to each other climbed to an 18-month high of 15.125 percent on Sept. 19, following the failure of Lehman and the U.S. government takeover of American International Group. The rate declined to 11.50 percent today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Reserve Bank is monitoring the level of cash in the financial system and will take steps when required, Deputy Governor Shyamala Gopinath said in an interview in Mumbai.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for overnight dollar loans rose 37 basis points to 2.37 percent today, the British Bankers' Association said. The three-month rate stayed near the highest level since January.

India's finance ministry last month allowed companies building roads, ports, utilities and other infrastructure projects to borrow more overseas, giving them access to cheaper funds. The central bank on Sept. 16 also announced measures to boost cash in India's financial system.

Liquidity Crunch

``Especially for smaller companies it is very good, as liquidity crunch hurts the smaller companies more,'' said Sachit Jain, executive director of Vardhman Textiles Ltd., India's largest exporter of cotton yarn. He spoke in a telephone interview from Ludhiana, in the northern Punjab state, where the company is based. ``The overall confidence will go up, though I would have expected a deeper cut.''

In addition to raising the cash ratio, Reddy had lifted the central bank's key repurchase rate by 300 basis points to 9 percent since 2004 to tackle inflation and prevent the world's fastest growing major economy after China from overheating.

Cooling prices have given Subbarao room to start easing policy. India's inflation held near a five-week low of 12.14 percent in the week to Sept. 13 from a year earlier, matching the previous week's gain, data released on Sept. 25 showed.

Rupee Plunges

The rupee plunged to a 5 1/2 year low today and is the second-worst performer this year among the ten most-active Asian currencies excluding the yen. The rupee fell as the credit-market turmoil in the U.S. prompted overseas funds to pull out money from Indian stocks.

India's capital markets regulator today lifted curbs on overseas investors imposed a year ago, in a bid to stem record sales by offshore funds that have triggered a 42 percent slide in the benchmark index this year.

Foreign investors, who bought a record $17.2 billion of Indian stocks last year, are now fleeing an economy which grew last quarter at the slowest pace since 2004. Overseas investors have pulled out $9.2 billion since January.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at cthomas1@bloomberg.net; Anoop Agrawal in Mumbai at aagrawal8@bloomberg.net.



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Deflation Threat Returns as Asset Markets Decline

By John Fraher

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his global colleagues fight the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, one danger is looming larger by the day: deflation.

With asset markets tumbling, commodity prices plunging the most in 50 years and banks keeping a tighter grip on credit, the ingredients for a sustained period of falling prices are coalescing. While inflation is still a concern for many policy makers only months after oil and food prices peaked, the risk is their patchwork of rescue and stimulus packages will fail, and prices will start to fall throughout the broader economy.

``The ghost of deflation could be dragged out of the closet again in coming months,'' says Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG in London.

A global recession is already looking more likely, with the credit freeze stirring memories of Japan's decade-long struggle with deflation in the 1990s. So European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King may be forced to follow Bernanke, whose Fed has chopped its benchmark rate by 3.25 percentage points since August 2007 to 2 percent -- its most aggressive round of easing in two decades.

The deflation scenario might go like this: Banks worldwide, stung by $588 billion in writedowns related to toxic assets -- especially mortgage-related securities -- will further reduce the flow of credit, strangling growth. That will push house prices lower, forcing additional losses and making banks even more reluctant to lend. As the credit crisis worsens, businesses will find it almost impossible to raise prices.

A `Vicious' Cycle

``A vicious deflationary cycle'' could then ensue, says Tony Tan, deputy chairman of Government of Singapore Investment Corp., a sovereign-wealth fund that oversees more than $100 billion.

Prices are already falling in parts of the world economy. Home values dropped more than 10 percent in the U.K. and in the U.S. in the past year. Oil, copper and corn drove commodities toward their biggest weekly decline since at least 1956 on Oct. 3, with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials tumbling 10.4 percent. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping costs, has dropped 75 percent since May.

``We are certainly more worried about deflation than inflation,'' says David Owen, chief European economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Group Ltd. in London. Central bankers need to ``get rates down and keep them there for quite some time,'' he says.


Aggressive Easing

Trichet said Oct. 2 that European policy makers have considered reversing their decision in July to raise their benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.25 percent. Forty-six of the 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the Bank of England to cut its key rate by at least a quarter point Oct. 9 from 5 percent.

The Fed has already responded to one deflationary scare this decade. With inflation approaching 1 percent in 2003, then- Chairman Alan Greenspan slashed its rate to a 45-year low of 1 percent and kept it there for a year, which its critics say helped fuel the property and credit boom that is now unraveling.

This time, the crisis is an increasingly dysfunctional banking system that may not be able to continue making loans that grease economic activity. Such a pullback, combined with slowing growth and falling asset and commodity prices, makes deflation more of a threat, Owen says.

Restricting Credit

Spooked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and other institutions, banks are restricting access to credit. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, they charge each other for three-month loans in dollars rose to 4.33 percent on Oct, 3, the highest since January.

Not all economists share Owen's gloomy outlook. Some say Bernanke and other central bankers have learned the lessons of Japan and the Great Depression so well they will do everything necessary to head off trouble.

Former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley says that while deflation is a risk ``if we were to go into a very, very prolonged recession and nobody did anything about it,'' he is ``not worried,'' because he's confident the Fed will act ``very, very, very aggressively.''

Bernanke, who has studied the Great Depression since he was a graduate student, has said that one key reason the U.S. stock- market crash of 1929 had such severe consequences was that lenders were forced to close and the banking system was deprived of liquidity.

`Lost Decade'

He has also studied Japan's ``lost decade'' of deflation, which was partly caused by a banking crisis, and has argued that its policy makers waited too long to respond to a stock-and- property price crash at the start of the 1990s. In a 2002 speech that earned him the nickname ``Helicopter Ben,'' he said governments and central banks must respond immediately to such a deflationary shock by dropping money into the banking system.

The caution of Japan's leaders -- who waited until 1999 before using taxpayers' money to bail out the banks -- cost their economy dearly. Lending shrank, unemployment more than doubled to 5.5 percent, and Japan experienced three recessions between 1990 and 2002. From 1997 to 2007, consumer prices dropped 2.2 percent. In the U.S., prices climbed 29 percent in the same period.

When credit markets started seizing up in August 2007, Bernanke set up more than $1.4 trillion in emergency borrowing for financial institutions. Today, the Fed said it's doubling emergency loans to commercial banks to as much as $900 billion.

The ECB, the Bank of Japan and other central banks have set up similar lifelines. On Oct. 3, President George W. Bush signed into law Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion bank- rescue plan.

`Last Resort'

Commerzbank's Kraemer says the Fed might also consider further easing collateral requirements or purchases of government bonds ``as a last resort.''

Kraemer says he thinks a slowdown in inflation is more likely than deflation. The surge in commodity prices earlier this year drove inflation in the U.S., Europe and Asia to the strongest pace in at least a decade. Strategists have pointed to Paulson's rescue plan as an additional risk.

Japanese core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, climbed 2.4 percent in August from August 2007. The U.S. core rate, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.5 percent from a year earlier.

Still, deflationary forces are mounting in the U.S. and other parts of the world economy. In Britain, the Nationwide Building Society says house prices have dropped 12.4 percent in the past year as banks restrict the supply of mortgages, putting the economy on course for its first recession since the early 1990s.

Deflationary Consequences

``The risk we must be careful not to underestimate is the deflationary consequences of the credit crisis,'' Bank of England Deputy Governor John Gieve said last month.

In the U.S., prices manufacturers paid for materials last month plunged the most since at least 1948, with the Institute for Supply Management's index dropping 23.5 points to 53.5 points.

The breakeven rate on U.S. 10-year Treasuries, a measure of price expectations, dropped to 1.4 percent from 2.6 percent in July. Japan is the only country whose bond market implies a lower inflation rate than the U.S. The rate represents the pace of inflation investors expect over the life of the securities.

All this is likely to make the Fed resume rate cuts, says Robert Dye, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

``If we're going over a cliff, we're not going to go over a cliff with a 2 percent federal funds rate,'' he says. ``What's the point of holding back?''

To contact the reporter on this story: John Fraher in London at jfraher@bloomberg.net


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EU Leaders Pledge to Do `Whatever' Needed to Protect Depositors

By Steve Scherer

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders pledged to protect depositors from losing their savings and to support the financial system as shares tumbled across the region today.

EU countries ``will take whatever measures are necessary to maintain the stability of the financial system,'' according to a joint statement by the 27 EU member countries that was released today by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's office. ``We will continue to take the necessary measures to protect the system so that individual depositors in our countries' banks do not suffer any loss of money.''

Today's statement focuses on safeguarding people's savings as the banking crisis in Europe deepens. The German government yesterday announced a bailout plan for its second-biggest real- estate lender, and BNP Paribas SA agreed to buy Fortis's units in Belgium and Luxembourg.

Europe's main stock exchanges were all down more than 4 percent at 3 p.m. in Paris, and the Bloomberg 500 Europe Banks and Financial Services Index had dropped 6.1 percent. The euro also suffered its biggest one-day drop against the yen since its 1999 debut, and fell to a 14-month low against the dollar.

Finance ministers from the 15 countries that use the euro meet later today in Luxembourg, and the rest of the EU finance ministers will join them tomorrow.

To contact the reporters on this story: Sandrine Rastello in Paris at srastello@bloomberg.net.



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Fed Boosts Cash Auctions to $900 Billion, May Do More

By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will double its auctions of cash to banks to as much as $900 billion and is considering further steps to unfreeze short-term lending markets as the credit crunch deepens.

``The Federal Reserve stands ready to take additional measures as necessary to foster liquid money-market conditions,'' the central bank said in a statement released in Washington today. Fed and Treasury officials are ``consulting with market participants on ways to provide additional support for term unsecured funding markets,'' the statement said.

Today's steps follow a hoarding of cash by banks that sent the premium on the three-month London interbank offered rate over the Fed's benchmark interest rate to a record. Industrial companies are also finding it harder to raise cash after the market for commercial paper shrank to a three-year low as investors flee even borrowers with few links to mortgages.

``It is pretty much all out war,'' said Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., New York. ``They are pulling out all the stops to try and get borrowers and lenders to meet and do transactions once again.''

Implementing part of last week's emergency legislation to shore up the financial industry, the Fed said today it will begin paying interest on the cash reserves banks hold at the central bank. The step should give Fed officials greater power to inject cash into banks without interfering with their benchmark interest rate, which stands at 2 percent.

Bernanke Speech

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's speech on the economic outlook tomorrow in Washington should give an indication of whether U.S. central bankers are prepared to cut the main rate before the next meeting Oct. 28-29, Rupkey said.

As part of today's steps, the Fed will increase its auctions under the 28-day and 84-day Term Auction Facility operations to $150 billion each. The two forward TAF auctions in November will be increased to $150 billion each, the Fed said.

Money market rates are climbing worldwide on concern the deepening credit crisis will cause more financial firms to collapse. Three-month Libor climbed to 4.29 percent today, the biggest premium over the Fed's benchmark since the central bank began using a target for the overnight federal funds rate between banks as its main tool around 1990.

In Europe, governments rushed to shore up their faltering banks as the credit crunch worsened there. BNP Paribas SA agreed to buy Fortis's units in Belgium and Luxembourg for 14.5 billion euros ($19.8 billion) after a government rescue failed, while the German state and financial institutions put together a 50 billion euro rescue package for Hypo Real Estate Holding AG.

International Effort

President George W. Bush's working group on financial markets, a body that includes the Fed, Treasury, Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said today it's working with ``market participants and regulators globally to address the current challenges to restore confidence and stability to financial markets.''

The working group statement comes four days before a gathering of central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of Seven major nations in Washington.

The Fed gained the authority to pay interest on commercial bank reserves under the $700 billion financial-rescue legislation approved last week. The Treasury will purchase distressed assets from financial companies under the plan.

To finance the Treasury's new plans, officials are considering changes to federal government debt sales, including a reintroduction of three-year notes. Any changes will be released at the Treasury's Nov. 5 quarterly announcement on sales of long-term debt.

Treasury Issuance

The Treasury also said that some of its cash-management bills may be ``longer-dated.'' The expansion in issuance is needed to ``allow Treasury to adequately respond to the near- term increase in borrowing requirements,'' the department said. Treasury officials last month also started a special program of bill auctions to help the Fed expand its balance sheet.

Fed payments on required reserves will be made at the average targeted federal funds rate established by the Federal Open Market Committee over each so-called reserve maintenance period less 10 basis points.

In addition to the cash banks must hold at the Fed, lenders also sometimes place excess reserves. The central bank said today it will pay interest on those funds at the lowest targeted federal funds rate for each period less 75 basis points. That will put a floor under the actual fed funds rate each day and let the Fed `expand its balance sheet as necessary to provide the liquidity necessary to support financial stability.''

Managing Rates

The Fed created the TAF auctions of cash to commercial banks in December, and has continually expanded the program since then. To prevent a surfeit of funds in the system from pushing the actual overnight interbank lending rate below the Fed's target, the central bank withdraws liquidity through repurchase operations.

As the Fed pumped cash through the TAF and other programs at record levels last month, the New York Fed had difficulty controlling the daily federal funds rate. While the target is 2 percent, the effective rate was below that level every day from Sept. 19 to Sept. 29.

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in New York at slanman@bloomberg.net; Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net



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U.S. Refiners Face Gasoline Slump, May Cut Output: Chart of Day

By Alexander Kwiatkowski

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. refiners may cut gasoline output as a slump in demand slashes the profit from processing crude oil into the fuel.

The profit margin, or crack spread, for turning crude oil into gasoline fell below zero at the end of last week meaning refiners may lose money by continuing to produce the fuel. When cracks turn negative, companies will consider cutting output in an attempt to reduce their losses and revive prices.

The CHART OF THE DAY plots the gasoline crack spread on the New York Mercantile exchange against implied U.S. demand. Fuel consumption is the lowest since Hurricane Katrina struck in September 2005 as a slowing economy pushes consumers into driving less. A collapse in fuel stockpiles after hurricanes this year shut refineries has failed to revive prices.

``The U.S. refining system cannot run with gasoline prices lower than crude oil,'' said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix Gmbh in Zug, Switzerland. ``If the economics were to stay, that will definitely push refineries into cutting runs.''

The November gasoline futures contract on the New York mercantile exchange closed 29 cents below the equivalent crude oil contract on Oct. 3. The so-called crack spread was at a premium of 48 cents at 11:23 a.m. in London today.

The crack is calculated by converting the gasoline contract price to dollars per barrel from dollars per ton and subtracting the crude oil price. Implied demand is calculated by the American Petroleum Institute using the change in gasoline stock levels added to total U.S. imports and production.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net



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Bank of England Drains Bank Reserves to Calm Markets

By Jennifer Ryan

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England will drain excess bank reserves from money markets in order to bring overnight interest rates in line with its benchmark and quell financial- market tensions.

The bank will sell sterling bills maturing in one week or less at the benchmark rate of 5 percent, the Bank of England said in a statement today. The operations aim to ``stabilize overnight market rates broadly in line with the Monetary Policy Committee's bank rate'' and will be conducted as needed by market conditions.

Reserves that U.K. financial institutions keep at the Bank of England jumped by 7.6 billion pounds ($13 billion) in September from the previous month, the biggest increase since the current money market system began in May 2006, data showed today. Excess short-term funds have made it harder for the bank to control overnight rates after the financial crisis intensified.

``The operations are to mop up extra liquidity at the very short end, and say nothing about what they'll have to do tomorrow or next week,'' said Matthew Sharratt, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in London. ``It doesn't say anything about the overall need for liquidity and the cash squeeze going forward.''

Today's announcement also follows unprecedented use of the central bank's standing deposit facility. Banks used it nine times in the past three weeks to deposit extra funds.

The overnight lending rate rose to 5.08 percent today, compared with 5 percent on Oct. 3. The reading climbed as high as 6.79 percent Sept. 16, and fell as low as 4.5 percent on Sept. 23.

The changes compare with an average from April to August of 5.08 percent, with the biggest deviation a single jump to 5.32 percent on June 30.

Reserves Target

The bank also said today it tightened the range around the reserves target for financial institutions to 40 percent from the 60 percent range set on Oct. 1.

Today's announcement is in line with arrangements established in the bank's so-called ``red book'' on money market operations.

``In the event of any major disruption during a maintenance period,'' the bank may ``increase the supply of central bank money to the market through regular or exceptional open market operations'' and ``could also raise reserves targets, and/or widen the range around them,'' according to the rules in the book.

The Bank of England's announcement today follows its offer of emergency funds with longer maturities for the past month as part of a global coordinated central bank effort to calm markets. Last week the bank extended the range of collateral it accepts for three-month auctions and said it will offer 40 billion pounds of funds under the new rules, starting tomorrow.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at Jryan13@bloomberg.net



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U.K. Treasury Under Pressure to Take Stakes in Banks

By Gonzalo Vina

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling is under increasing pressure to take equity stakes in British banks and to extend a guarantee on deposits to stem the impact of the worldwide credit crisis.

David Cameron, the leader of the U.K.'s Conservative opposition, and former Bank of England Deputy Governor Howard Davies said the Treasury should take more action to firm up banks. The Treasury has repeatedly declined to rule out any action and didn't address what it termed speculation today.

``We will do whatever it takes to get Britain through this,'' Yvette Cooper, chief secretary to the Treasury, told BBC Radio 4 in London today. ``We are prepared to take radical action where it is needed. Governments across the world have had to take unprecedented steps.''

Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government is reviewing the impact of Germany's decision over the weekend to guarantee bank deposits. Darling will make a statement to Parliament at 3:30 p.m. Cameron wrote in today's Financial Times that he'd support steps to recapitalize banks if the crisis worsened.

``It is possible to imagine the circumstances in which government injections of capital, with proper safeguards and strict conditions, may be the best way to safeguard the long- term interests of the taxpayer,'' Cameron wrote in the FT.

Davies' View

Davies, who also has served as head of Britain's Financial Services Authority, told the BBC that governments should consider following billionaire investor Warren Buffett's lead and take stakes in banks to bolster their funds.

``Governments are going to have to do something like that in order to signal to wholesale markets that they stand behind the institutions and that governments have some skin in the game,'' Davies, who is currently director of the London School of Economics, said on BBC radio.


Yesterday, Darling said he was ``looking at some pretty big steps which we would not take in ordinary times.'' He didn't give any details of what he was considering. Banks are pressing for the Treasury to create a ``bad bank'' that would take on distressed assets to clean up the industry's balance sheets.

More liquidity is needed ``to get interbank lending going and money markets going,'' former Chancellor of the Exchequer Ken Clarke, a Conservative lawmaker, said on Bloomberg Television. ``I hope he (Darling) is going to announce something to put fresh capital into the banks.''

Buffett's Example

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised $5 billion in a stock offering on Sept. 24 and gained an endorsement and a $5 billion cash infusion from Buffett. ``I don't think full nationalization should be necessary. Taking a 10 to 20 percent stake as a signal to the market that the government stands behind it may well mean you could get out of that stake once markets return to normal.''

Britain nationalized Northern Rock Plc in February and seized the loan book of Bradford & Bingley Plc last month. For now, Treasury officials are looking harder at whether to extend their assurances over bank deposits after Ireland, Greece and Germany extended their guarantees.

``It now seems likely that most or all European governments will have to follow with complete guarantees for all or almost all private deposits,'' Michael Saunders, chief Western European economist at Citigroup Inc. in London, wrote in a note to clients. ``Now that several countries have taken this route, it will be hard for any other government to claim they do not want to follow or cannot afford to.''

Executives' Advice

Brown earlier today met with his new National Economic Council including Cabinet ministers and 17 executives who will meet government officials twice a week to offer advice on the crisis. Barclays Plc Chairman Marcus Agius is on the panel along with Vodafone Group Plc Chairman John Bond, Lloyds TSB Bank Plc Chairman Victor Blank and Dick Olver of BAE Systems Plc.

Chancellor Angela Merkel said private account holders will have their savings guaranteed as the German government yesterday sought to reinforce confidence in the banking system while salvaging a bailout of Hypo Real Estate Holding AG.

Merkel made her pledge as the government worked on a new bailout package for Hypo Real Estate after the property lender said commercial banks withdrew support for a 35 billion-euro ($48 billion) plan.

Brown's spokesman, Michael Ellam, said British officials understand from their German counterparts that the government in Berlin will not propose legislation covering that country's bank guarantee.

``The government isn't going to speculate on possible policy options,'' Ellam said at his daily briefing with journalists. ``Our understanding is that the German government will not be brining forward legislation for a legally binding guarantee. We are in the process of seeking clarification.''

Brown spoke with the prime ministers of Denmark and Iceland and French President Nicolas Sarkozy along with the head of the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net


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BP Falls Most in Six Years as Oil Futures Decline

By Fred Pals

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, Europe's second-largest oil company, slumped the most in almost six years in London trading as crude prices extended their decline. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the continent's biggest, fell the most since combining its Dutch and U.K. parent companies in 2005.

BP dropped as much as 35.75 pence, or 7.6 percent, to 432 pence, the steepest intraday decline since Oct. 29, 2002, and was at 440 pence as of 2:51 p.m. local time. Shell's Class-A shares in London lost as much as 6.5 percent to 1,523 pence, the most since July 15, 2005, and traded last at 1,540 pence.

Oil futures fell for a fourth day in New York as the credit crisis deepened, adding to concerns that global economic growth will slow and reduce demand for fuels. Crude for November delivery retreated as much as $4.81 to $89.07 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have fallen 38 percent from a record $147.27 on July 11.


If oil prices slipped below $80 a barrel next year, BP would retain its ``hold'' rating while Shell would be cut to ``hold'' from ``buy,'' Jason Kenney, an Edinburgh-based analyst at ING Wholesale Banking, said in a note today. ``Given the uncertainty for sustainability of earnings and the likely profitability squeeze, we would see little to be optimistic about for the oil sector as a whole in such a scenario.''

Total

Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company, fell 5.9 percent to a three-week low of 40.12 euros. The oil and gas industry subgroup on the Dow Jones Europe Stoxx 600 fell 5.5 percent. Repsol YPF, the largest energy company in Spain, fell the most in over a month, dropping 6.6 percent, to 19.35 euros. The stock traded at 19.55 euros at 3:08 p.m. in Madrid.

Eni SpA, Italy's largest oil company, fell as much as 8.4 percent, the most in more than seven years, after ING, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG cut their price targets. The shares traded down 1.32 euros, or 7.2 percent, to 17.08 euros at 3:08 p.m. in Milan. SBM Offshore NV, the world's largest producer of floating oil production platforms, dropped the most in a week, losing 1.14 euros, or 7.9 percent, to 13.35 euros. SBM traded at 13.38 euros at 3:08 p.m. in Amsterdam.

Shell has lost 26 percent this year, while BP has tumbled 28 percent. Total is down 29 percent. BP reports third-quarter earnings Oct. 28, followed by Shell on Oct. 30.

In terms of market value, Shell has been bypassed by Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to Bloomberg data. Exxon Mobil Corp. is the world's largest company in market value.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fred Pals in Amsterdam at fpals@bloomberg.net


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EEX Says German Power Trading Doubled on Credit Worry

By Jim Polson and Lars Paulsson

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- European Energy Exchange AG's trading volumes doubled in the second half of last month amid a surge in demand for safer trading on regulated platforms after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Daily volume in the derivatives market rose as high as 10 terawatt-hours on some days, from an average 4 terawatt-hours after the Leipzig-based exchange suspended Lehman on Sept. 15, Chief Executive Officer Hans-Bernd Menzel said in an interview in New York on Oct. 3. The exchange's clearing house liquidated Lehman's positions within 24 hours, he said.

``We had a good month,'' Menzel said, whose exchange is combining its power business with France's Powernext SA. ``We have a liquid market and clearing houses are considered to be a safe haven.''

Traders opted for exchanges where settlement is guaranteed amid concern over counter-party risk after Lehman's suspension. More than three-quarters of the trading in Europe's eight- biggest power markets last year was done outside an organized exchange in the so-called over-the-counter market, according to consultants Prospex Research Ltd.

For all of September, power derivatives trading rose 35 percent to 107 terawatt-hours from a year earlier, EEX said today in an e-mailed statement. On Nord Pool ASA, Europe's biggest power exchange, financial power trading rose 32 percent in September from a year earlier.


Margin Requirements

The German securities regulator, BaFin, requires EEX's clearing house, which guarantees the settlement of trades, to hold margins of 2 billion euros ($2.72 billion) to 2.5 billion euros, Menzel said. This backs daily open interest of 30 billion euros to 40 billion euros, comparable to that required for the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Menzel said.

The margins that Lehman had on the exchange were used to unwind the bank's position, Menzel said. ``The quality and security of exchange-like, supervised trading plus clearing settlement out of one central counterpart comes to the mind of people more than it did before.''

Menzel spoke after addressing a conference sponsored by Rosenblatt Securities Inc. in New York.

Utilities, trading companies, banks and hedge funds trade electricity contracts on platforms such as EEX and over the counter, through brokers or directly with each other. Financial institutions now account for 50 percent of volumes, Menzel said.

U.K. Market

EEX reduced trading fees by a third in January, the first cut in six years, to compete with brokers and exchanges with lower fees. The cuts helped EEX reach a goal of cleared volume that was half that of over-the-counter exchange, Menzel said.

``Exchange-traded volumes have increased and OTC volumes have slightly decreased,'' he said.

EEX is targeting the U.K. market where it plans to offer both electricity and natural-gas contracts. It expects to hear next month the results of a tender by the U.K. Futures & Options Association for a power market, Menzel said. EEX is among two short-listed companies. APX BV is the other.

Trading by London-based companies in continental Europe already accounts for a majority of EEX volume on some days, he said. ``They're not doing it so much because they want to be in German power, but because they want a liquid market with a lot of players,'' he said, adding that the next step is the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc's J. Aron & Co. became the first U.S. member of the exchange in 2004 after the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission allowed U.S. companies to trade directly there, without setting up European subsidiaries.

Day-ahead trading on EEX rose 23 percent to 12.8 terawatt hours in September.

The exchange's volumes for trading in European Emission allowances more than doubled to more than 7 million permits in September from 2.6 million a year earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jim Polson in New York at jpolson@bloomberg.net;


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Canada's Dollar Falls to Lowest Since May 2007 on U.S. Strength

By Chris Fournier

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's currency weakened to the lowest since May 2007 after the U.S. dollar strengthened against most major currencies as the credit crisis spread and crude oil fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since February.

Canada's dollar fell for a third day, its longest losing streak in more than a month. Canada relies on commodities for about half its export revenue. Crude accounts for 21 percent of the weighting in the Bank of Canada Commodity Price Index, the largest single component.

``We're seeing most of the commodities-based currencies getting hit,'' said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ``It's more of a story of U.S. dollar strength on strong safe-haven buying of U.S. Treasuries as opposed to a commodity-price story.''

The Canadian dollar dropped as much as 0.9 percent to C$1.0924 per U.S. dollar, from C$1.0827 on Oct. 3, the lowest since May 18, 2007, when it touched C$1.1001. It traded at C$1.0877 at 8:58 a.m. in Toronto. The currency fell during four straight days in the period ended Sept. 2. One Canadian dollar buys 91.94 U.S. cents.

The loonie, as Canada's currency is known because of the aquatic bird on the one-dollar coin, will slip to C$1.13 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2009, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Guatieri predicts the loonie will stabilize against the U.S. dollar at C$1.08 by the end of this year and then weaken to C$1.12 by the end of 2009.

Oil dropped as much as 5.3 percent to $88.89. Crude for November delivery last traded at $90.08.

The loonie extended declines after Statistics Canada said building permits plunged 13.5 percent in August, almost 10 times as much as expected. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast a 1.5 percent drop, the median of 13 estimates.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net



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Euro Falls to 14-Month Low as Credit Crisis Spreads to Europe

By Kim-Mai Cutler and Stanley White

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The euro had its biggest one-day drop against the yen since its debut in 1999 as the deepening credit crisis prompted European governments to pledge bailouts for troubled banks while stopping short of coordinated action.

The 15-nation currency declined to a 14-month low against the dollar and the weakest in 2 1/2 years versus the yen after leaders meeting at the weekend avoided announcing any plan that would mirror the U.S.'s $700 billion bailout. Germany joined with banks and insurers to prevent the collapse of property lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG and Belgium announced a revised deal to salvage Fortis. The yen jumped 5 percent versus the Australian dollar as investors cut holdings of higher- yielding assets funded in Japan, known as carry trades.

``It appears that European governments are failing to grasp the real problem and are taking reactive measures instead of dealing with the underlying situation,'' said Ian Stannard, a London-based currency strategist for BNP Paribas SA. ``The market is disappointed with the results out of weekend meetings and that's going to put the euro under increasing pressure.

The euro fell to 139.80 yen, the weakest since March 2006, before trading at 140.47 as of 7:36 a.m. in New York, from 145.11 on Oct. 3. The euro declined to $1.3605, from $1.3772. It earlier reached $1.3543, the lowest since Aug. 23, 2007. The dollar bought 103.31 yen, from 105.32, after earlier sliding below 103 for the first time in four months. The euro may fall to $1.3360 and below 137 against the yen this week, Stannard said.

Against the pound, the euro fell to 77.02 pence, the lowest since March 14. It also declined to 1.5379 Swiss francs, the weakest in more than six months.

European Bailouts

The German government and the country's banks and insurers agreed on a 50 billion-euro ($68 billion) rescue for Hypo Real Estate after an earlier bailout faltered. BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, agreed to take over Fortis's units in Belgium after a government rescue failed.

``It could be difficult for the European Union to take coordinated relief actions,'' Toru Umemoto, chief currency analyst in Tokyo at Barclays Capital, Britain's third-biggest lender, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``This is a risk and the currency market is focusing on this risk.''

HSBC Holdings Plc cut its forecast for European growth next year to 0.4 percent from a previous prediction of a 0.9 percent, economists led by Janet Henry wrote in a note to clients dated Oct. 3. UBS AG cut its outlook for expansion in Asia excluding Japan next year to 6.1 percent from 6.9 percent.

The yen rose to 76.56 per Australian dollar, the highest since Sept. 17, 2004. It advanced to 66.85 versus the New Zealand dollar from 69.68 and to 50.5162 against the Brazilian real from 51.5240.

Unbeatable Yen

Japan's currency was the best performer in September and the only currency to appreciate against the dollar as a credit- market collapse drove Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and sent borrowing costs in Europe to record highs.

Deutsche Bank AG, the biggest trader of foreign exchange, says the yen will rise 5 percent in coming months. New York- based Morgan Stanley is telling clients to buy the currency versus the euro and the pound.

After seven years of providing the cheapest source of funds for investors buying higher-yielding New Zealand dollars, Australian dollars and Brazil reais, the yen is appreciating as $587 billion of subprime mortgage-related losses force banks to restrict credit. It strengthened 4.4 percent on a trade-weighted basis in September, according to the Bank of Japan's effective exchange rate, the most since August 2007.

`Easing Cycle'

``We are in a multi year trend reversal,'' said Paresh Upadhyaya, a senior vice president at Putnam Investment LLC in Boston, who helps manage $50 billion in currency assets. ``We are going to see a global central bank easing cycle. The yen is the place to be in this environment of economic slowdown and heightened volatility.''

Futures traders increased their bets that the yen will gain against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the yen compared with those on a drop, so-called net longs, was 43,022 on Sept. 30, compared with net longs of 31,939 a week earlier.

The dollar fell for a fourth day against the yen on speculation reports will show a deepening slump in the U.S. economy. Pending home sales fell 1.1 percent in August after a 3.2 percent decline in the previous month, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The National Association of Realtors will release the data on Oct. 8.

The U.S. Congress approved a financial-market bailout on Oct. 3, authorizing the government to spend as much as $700 billion buying troubled assets from financial institutions reeling from record home foreclosures.

Recession, Banking Crisis

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy will enter a recession ``significantly deeper'' than previously forecast, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least 1 percentage point. Gross domestic product will decline in each of the next two quarters, with unemployment reaching 8 percent by the end of 2009, Goldman said in a research note.

``It's unwise to buy a currency which is both in recession and having a banking crisis,'' said Peter Pontikis, a treasury strategist at Suncorp-Metway Ltd. in Brisbane. The dollar will weaken to $1.45 per euro over the next month, he said.

Technical analysis shows the euro may fall to $1.3380 this week, said Kengo Suzuki, currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo.

The European currency is likely to extend last week's 5.8 percent loss as its daily moving average convergence/divergence chart is showing a sell signal, according to Suzuki. Support at $1.3380 is near the euro's 200-week moving average, he said. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered.

``There's really not much to suggest the euro can stage a meaningful recovery right now,'' Suzuki said. ``It's been caught in a wave of panic selling and the charts show it can go lower still.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim-Mai Cutler in London at kcutler@bloomberg.net; Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net



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Bank Writeoffs May Rise, Bond Spreads Fall on TARP

By Jody Shenn and Caroline Salas
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury's $700 billion plan to rescue the nation's banks from the subprime mortgage debacle may help bonds rebound from losses of at least 90 percent while contributing to writedowns at financial institutions.

The Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, signed into law by President George W. Bush Oct. 3, allows banks to sell toxic assets above current prices, driving down yields on some bonds relative to benchmarks, said Eugene Flood, chief executive officer at Smith Breeden Associates Inc., which manages $27 billion in fixed-income assets. Spreads may retrace a quarter of their widening since the credit crisis began, Flood said.

Yields on so-called super-senior commercial mortgage securities widened to a record 4.05 percentage points over swap rates last week, up from 0.22 percentage point at the start of 2007. Based on Flood's estimate, they may drop to about 3 percentage points in the next few weeks.

The $2 trillion market for bonds tied to home loans that don't have the backing of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae has ``been priced down now at fire-sale prices because everyone's afraid to jump in,'' said Timothy Policinski, managing director at Cincinnati-based Fort Washington Investment Advisors Inc., which manages $22 billion in fixed-income.

Credit-Market Losses

While the plan will let financial companies sell toxic securities to the Treasury, banks may have to recognize bigger losses than the $586 billion recorded since the start of 2007 because the assets haven't been written down enough, according to JP Morgan Securities Inc. Losses may reach $1.7 trillion, Christopher Flanagan, a New York-based analyst at the firm, estimated in an Oct. 3 report to clients.

Mounting losses and doubts that Congress would give U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson power to purchase mortgage- backed securities and other troubled assets with taxpayer money caused global credit markets to lose 5.16 percent of their value in September on average, Jack Malvey, a strategist at Barclays Capital in New York, said in a report to clients dated Oct. 6. Last month's losses were worse than in any single year, he said.

The seizure that began in August 2007 deepened as the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans in euros increased to a record 5.33 percent last week, according to the British Bankers' Association. The corresponding rate for dollars climbed to 4.33 percent, the highest since January.

Fallout in Europe

Damage from the credit crunch accelerated last month as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Washington Mutual Inc. collapsed, the U.S. government took control of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co. and Wachovia Corp. were sold.

European stocks fell today as the credit crisis deepened in the region and after European leaders meeting in Paris this weekend pledged to bail out their own nations' banks, while stopping short of a coordinated rescue.

Germany agreed to a 50 billion-euro ($68 billion) rescue package for commercial property lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG after its stock slumped 89 percent this year. BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, will take control of Fortis's units in Belgium after a government rescue of the Brussels and Amsterdam- based company failed. In Iceland, the government is reportedly arranging a 10 billion-euro injection into its banking system.

Yields on U.S. securities rated AAA and composed of subprime or home-equity loans were near a record of 7.57 percentage points more than Treasuries last week, from 0.53 percentage point at the beginning of last year, according to Lehman Brothers index data.

Investment Grade

The yield premium, or spread, for investment-grade corporate bonds in the U.S. widened to a record 4.91 percentage points on Oct. 3, from 2.03 percentage points at the start of the year, according to the Merrill Lynch Corporate Master Index.

Paulson's plan may spark a recovery. Yield premiums may retrace about a quarter of their increases relative to benchmark rates since markets collapsed, according to Flood at Chapel Hill, North Carolina-based Smith Breeden.

Winners likely will include financial companies that were already required by accounting regulations to write down assets, such as New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and funds run by Blackrock Inc., as well as Pacific Investment Management Co. of Newport Beach, California.

Markdowns

Goldman Sachs marked down its holdings of bonds backed by Alt-A mortgages to 50 cents on the dollar on average on Aug. 31, to $3.6 billion, Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said in a conference call last month. Alt-A loans, which rank between subprime and prime, were made to borrowers with better credit who provided no proof of income, bought property for investment or took out so-called option adjustable-rate mortgages.

The companies may now be able to sell the securities to the U.S. government for a higher price than at which they carry them on their books, or increase the value of the debt as the Treasury buys the assets.

Some bonds backed by home loans not guaranteed by government-sponsored agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have fallen to less than 10 cents on the dollar, Fort Washington's Policinski said.

Mortgage bonds with top AAA ratings are being offered at about 60 cents to 70 cents on the dollar, though buyers have ``little'' knowledge of their true worth, according to Paul Gifford, a vice president and senior fixed-income manager at 1st Source Investment Advisors in South Bend, Indiana.

Negotiating Prices

``Hopefully with the price discovery from the Treasury we'll see if that's a correct view or not,'' said Gifford, who manages $1 billion of bonds.

The bailout will allow the Treasury to negotiate the prices paid for some bank assets or purchase them in auctions and reverse auctions. The agency will also set up an insurance fund for mortgage securities. Banks won't be allowed to sell securities to the Treasury for more than what they paid, unless the bonds were bought from another company already in bankruptcy or conservatorship.

The first attempt to hold an auction to buy troubled assets from financial firms will take at least four weeks to set up, a department official said. Paulson is likely to name Neel Kashkari, assistant secretary for international economics and development, to oversee the program, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The Treasury may even initially decide to buy $50 billion of securities directly, without holding an auction, Smith Breeden's Flood said.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told lawmakers last month that the government would likely pay above current ``fire-sale'' values, while still seeking discounts to shield taxpayers. The sales will force some financial institutions to book losses they've been able to avoid until now.

`Balancing Act'

Whether the bonds sustain the gains depends on whether the crisis is ``spreading beyond our shores if not to the broader economy, rather than being isolated to financial firms,'' said Scott Kirby, head of structured products at Ameriprise Financial Inc.'s RiverSource Investments LLC.

The Treasury also needs to find a balance in how much it's willing to pay, said Kirby, who oversees about $20 billion from Minneapolis.

``If they set the prices too low, you will not necessarily have the participation you're hoping for,'' Kirby said. ``There's a balancing act that will be sorted out in coming weeks.''

Choosing Firms

The Treasury will choose five to 10 investment firms to help it buy troubled securities. BlackRock, Pimco and Legg Mason Inc. of Baltimore informally advised the U.S. in the days leading up to the passage of the plan and want to manage some of the assets before selling them, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the discussions were private.

Bobbie Collins, a spokeswoman for BlackRock, declined to comment, as did Legg Mason's Mary Athridge and Pimco's Mark Porterfield.

If the Resolution Trust Corp., which helped the U.S. liquidate assets of failed savings-and-loans, is any guide, lawmakers will push the Treasury to recoup taxpayer money by quickly selling securities purchased from banks, said Peter Monroe, the former president of the RTC's oversight board.

``A lot of investors may find that if they purchase distressed assets from the Treasury Department they'll be able to buy them at great prices and come out winners,'' said James Barth, a finance professor at Auburn University in Auburn, Alabama and a senior Fellow at the Milken Institute, who has written a book on the savings and loan crisis. ``The U.S. government is not known for its savviness when it comes to financial matters.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Jody Shenn in New York at jshenn@bloomberg.net; Caroline Salas in New York at csalas1@bloomberg.net



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Ruble May Gain 1% By Year-End on Rescue Package, Survey Shows

By Emma O'Brien

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The ruble will strengthen almost 1 percent by the end of the year as Russia's support package for markets boosts liquidity, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The currency will rise to 30.15 against the central bank's dollar-euro basket by the end of 2008 and 30.30 by Oct. 31, according to the median estimate of 12 strategists and analysts surveyed last week. Since September, the government has pledged $150 billion in loans, tax cuts, delayed tax payments and other measures to support banks and companies amid the fallout from the global credit crisis.

``Russia has the resources and the commitment to make these measures work,'' said Jon Harrison, an emerging-markets currency strategist in London at Dresdner Kleinwort who predicts the ruble will rise to 30.20 by year-end. ``The capital outflows we've been seeing should abate and I see a modest recovery in the ruble.''

The ruble was little changed at 30.4013 against the basket by 2:18 p.m. in Moscow, close to the 30.40 level analysts at banks including UniCredit SpA, Credit Suisse Group, ING Bank NV and BNP Paribas SA. say is the weaker end of the central bank's trading band.

Bank Rossii keeps the ruble within the band by buying and selling currency, to limit fluctuations that hurt the competitiveness of Russian exports. The basket rate is calculated by multiplying the ruble's rate to the dollar by 0.55, the euro rate by 0.45, then adding them together.

Dollar Sales

The ruble slumped 11 percent against the dollar since the beginning of August as investors withdrew almost $60 billion from the country, according to BNP Paribas. The government estimated $16.7 billion left the country in the third quarter, the second-highest amount in Russia's history. The outflows came as the country's five-day war with Georgia in August intensified concerns already ignited by the falling oil price and seizure of global debt markets.

The central bank sold as much as $4.8 billion to prevent the ruble from sliding below 30.40 last week, according to Mikhail Galkin, head of fixed-income and credit research at MDM Bank in Moscow. Bank Rossii has no plans to expand the trading band ``over the coming months'' and sold ``several billion'' dollars to prop the ruble up in early September, First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said at the time.

Speculation that Bank Rossii will continue to make use of Russia's $562.8 billion in foreign currency reserves to support the ruble will also protect it, says Stanislav Ponomarenko, chief economist in Moscow at ING Bank NV.

Russia has the world's third-largest international reserves, after China and Japan. They have dropped almost 6 percent since the beginning of August as the ruble plunged 3.6 percent against the basket.

Long Positions

``The ruble hasn't weakened from 30.40 over the past three weeks, which shows the central bank is committed to keeping it stable,'' Ponomarenko said. ``Their position is firm and that should give confidence to people to invest.''

ING forecasts the ruble will be at 29.20, near the strongest end of its trading band, by the end of the year, and is advising clients to resume so-called long positions on the ruble, or bets that it's going to strengthen.

``The only reason why the ruble isn't getting stronger is there are still concerns about Russia and the credit situation,'' Ponomarenko added. ``These fears have no fundamental support.''

The ruble fell for a eighth day against the dollar today, dropping as much as 0.9 percent to 26.2145, the weakest since March 2007. It lost almost 6 percent versus the dollar this year. The currency rose as much as 1.1 percent to 35.3771 per euro today, up 1.1 percent for the year.

The range for the year-end ruble forecasts was 29.20 to 30.50. For the end of the month, the range was 29.80 to 30.40.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma O"Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net



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Mexican Peso Falls to Weakest in Two Years as Seizure Spreads

By Michael J. Moore

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's peso fell to the weakest in more than two years as the credit-market seizure caused bank bailouts to spread through Europe, reducing demand for emerging- market assets.

The peso dropped 1.2 percent to 11.3865 per dollar at 8:44 a.m. New York time, from 11.2554 Oct. 3. It touched 11.3921, the weakest since July 3, 2006.

BNP Paribas SA agreed to buy Fortis's units in Belgium and Luxembourg for 14.5 billion euros ($19.8 billion) after a government rescue failed, while the German state and financial institutions put together a 50 billion-euro rescue package for Hypo Real Estate Holding AG. Denmark and Germany said they will guarantee all their countries' bank deposits.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net



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Gold Rises on Demand for Haven; Credit Crisis Spreads to Europe

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose the most in two weeks on demand for a haven as the credit crisis spread in Europe. Silver declined.

Equities in the U.K. headed for the lowest close in almost four years. BNP Paribas SA said it will buy Fortis's units in Belgium and Luxembourg after government intervention failed, and Germany is planning a rescue of the nation's second-biggest commercial-property lender. Gold dropped 6.2 percent last week after the U.S. passed a $700 billion package to bail out banks.

``This is truly a financial panic,'' said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. ``It's obvious safe-haven buying for gold. One bank after another is going under in Europe. And what's scaring people is that they don't have all the safeguards that we do in this country.''

Gold futures for December delivery rose $30.70, or 3.7 percent, to $863.90 an ounce at 9:11 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close at that price would mark the biggest percentage gain since Sept. 22. The metal reached a record $1,033.90 on March 17.

Silver futures for December delivery fell 5 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $11.275 an ounce. The metal tumbled 16 percent last week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net.



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Copper Falls Most in 13 Months in London; Aluminum Extends Drop

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell the most in 13 months in London and aluminum slumped to almost a three-year low as the credit crisis deepened, threatening to curb global demand for raw materials.

The London Metal Exchange index of six metals tumbled 9.6 percent last week, the most since July 2006. Declines in all commodities accelerated as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy will enter a recession ``significantly deeper'' than previously forecast.

``The metals are reflecting the global picture,'' Kevin Tuohy, a trader at MF Global Ltd. in London, said today by phone. ``People are anticipating demand to be lower as major economies slow down.''

Copper for delivery in three months fell as much as 7.7 percent to $5,545 a metric ton, the biggest intraday drop since Aug. 16, 2007. It traded at $5,610 a ton as of 12:25 p.m. local time. Aluminum fell as much as 3.9 percent to $2,248 a ton, the lowest since January 2006.

Commodities as measured by the S&P GSCI index of 24 raw materials are heading for the first annual drop since 2001 after investors and traders exited leveraged bets. Speculators' short positions, or bets on price declines, exceeded longs by 16,169 positions on the New York copper futures as of Sept. 30, the biggest since March 2007.

Miners Slump

Mining companies slumped in London trade. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, fell as much as 11 percent and Rio Tinto Group lost 13 percent.

UBS AG lowered its price forecasts for copper, aluminum and most bulk commodities amid concern a slowing global economy will dent demand from builders and automakers.

Copper will average $2.50 a pound ($5,512.5 a metric ton) in 2009, down 38 percent from a previous estimate, the bank said in a report today. The price will average $3 a pound in 2010, or 33 percent less than predicted earlier. Aluminum was cut 28 percent to $1.15 a pound next year and 38 percent to $1.25 in 2010.

Raw materials also fell after the euro slid to a 13-month low against the dollar as the deepening credit crunch forced European governments to pledge bailouts of troubled banks and increase protection for depositors.

Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME gained 250 tons to 198,750 tons, according to the exchange's daily report.

Copper Premiums

Copper for immediate delivery traded at a premium of $85 a ton above the benchmark three-month contract, the highest since Aug. 26, signifying nearby futures are not easily available to buyers. Between 50 percent and 79 percent of LME-tracked copper inventories are held by one unidentified firm as of Oct. 2, according to the exchange's data.

Open interest of copper futures has risen 13 percent to 275,423 contracts since the end of June while prices have lost 34 percent, reflecting new short positions are being added. Increasing short positions on the LME could mean either more bets on price declines, or producers are hedging against further metal weakness.

Nickel fell as much as 5.3 percent to $14,350 a ton, the lowest since January 2006.

Among other metals traded on the LME, lead dropped $77.75, or 4.5 percent, to $1,642.75, zinc slipped $50, or 3.1 percent, to $1,545 a ton and tin fell $300 to $16,700 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net



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Soybeans Tumble to One-Year Low, Corn Drops on Demand Concerns

By Jae Hur

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans tumbled to the lowest in almost a year and corn dropped on signs slowing global economic growth, the dollar's strength and declining energy costs will reduce demand for the crops used in food, feed and fuel.

Asian stocks fell as the global credit crisis deepened in Europe and the U.S. lost the most jobs in five years last month The dollar climbed to a 13-month high against the euro and oil extended last week's 12 percent loss. Corn dropped 16 percent last week, the most since June 1986, and soybeans declined 15 percent, the biggest weekly decline since June 2004.

``Investors continue reducing risk in markets, such as stocks and commodities,'' Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at IDO Securities Co., said from Tokyo. ``Fear of the credit crunch and a slowing global economy has been dominating the market, prompting investors to forget fundamentals for now.''

Soybeans for November delivery lost as much as 5.7 percent to $9.3525 bushel, the lowest for the most-active contract since Oct. 9, 2007, in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. Futures were at $9.37 by 2:29 p.m. Singapore time. The oilseed is down 43 percent from a record $16.3675 on July 3.

Corn for December delivery fell 21.75 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $4.35 a bushel, the lowest since Dec. 20, at 2:40 p.m. Singapore time. Futures have lost 46 percent from a June 27 peak of $7.9925.

Oil Declines

Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as 3.2 percent to $90.85 a barrel. Futures closed at $93.88 on Oct. 3, the lowest settlement since Sept. 16, after U.S. lawmakers approved a $700 billion bank-rescue plan and the country's Labor Department reported a bigger-than-expected, 159,000-drop in payrolls in Sept.

The dollar reached $1.3561 per euro, the highest since Sept. 4, 2007, before trading at $1.3579, lowering interest among overseas buyers holding other currencies. A drop in oil prices erodes demand prospects for biofuel made from corn and soybeans.

Corn may tumble as much as 15 percent to $3.87 a bushel in the next six months, and soybeans by 11 percent to $8.85 a bushel, according to Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa. Commodities markets are heading for the biggest annual decline since 2001 as investors exit leveraged bets and slowing economic growth erodes demand for raw materials.

The value of the 19 commodities in the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index fell $280.6 billion, or 43 percent, from its July 3 peak, a loss larger than their total worth two years ago, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Wheat for December delivery declined as much as 29.25 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $6.11 a bushel, the lowest since July 23, 2007. It was at $6.1125 as of 2:34 p.m. in Singapore. The contract fell 11 percent last week, extending five weeks of losses. The price is down 55 percent a record high of $13.495 on Feb. 27.

Corn and soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange plunged by their 5 percent daily maximum at the opening today after a week-long holiday in China.

To contact the reporter for this story: Jae Hur in Singapore at jhur1@bloomberg.net



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Crude Oil Drops for Fourth Day on Concern Demand Will Weaken

By Margot Habiby

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a fourth day as the credit crisis deepened in Europe, adding to concern that global economic growth will slow and reduce demand for fuels.

Oil dipped as low as $88.89 a barrel after European leaders pledged to bail out troubled banks and protect depositors. OPEC President Chakib Khelil said today the price slide will continue next year, and Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state oil company, cut its selling prices for exports to Asia and the U.S.

``The negative sentiment that's growing in Europe is definitely having an impact,'' said Gene McGillian, an analyst at TFS Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The dollar going up helped oil start on a down note. People are looking at how far it will drop rather than looking at a technical rebound.''

Crude oil for November delivery fell $2.99, or 3.2 percent, to $90.89 a barrel as of 9:22 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched the lowest since Feb. 8. Futures have fallen 38 percent from the record $147.27 reached July 11.

New York oil prices declined 12 percent last week as reports showed U.S. fuel demand the previous four weeks was the lowest in almost seven years and manufacturing shrank in September at the fastest pace since the last recession in 2001. The Labor Department reported a bigger-than-expected 159,000 drop in payrolls in September last week.

The dollar rose to the highest since August 2007 against a basket of currencies, reducing the investment appeal of dollar- denominated commodities. The euro fell as low as $1.3543, from $1.3772 Oct. 3, after Germany said it will guarantee personal bank deposits, in a bid to stabilize the nation's banking system.

``With the stream of economic distress signals continuing unabated, the oil market is betting that demand will really suffer,'' said Christopher Bellew, a senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. ``A further push towards $85 is looking highly likely in these feverish conditions.''

`Vicious'

The U.S. may fall into a recession, the International Monetary Fund said on Oct. 2 in its most pessimistic outlook for the world's largest economy since the credit crisis began last year.

``It is doubtful that the vicious downward decline we are seeing in most markets will end anytime soon, even if credit markets start to thaw out,'' said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Connecticut.

Saudi Aramco trimmed the price of its Arab Extra Light crude by 30 cents to a discount of $3.40 a barrel below the West Texas Intermediate benchmark, the Dhahran, Saudi Arabia-based producer said yesterday in a faxed statement. The company also cut the price of its Arab Light grade.

Brent crude oil for November settlement fell $3.01, or 3.3 percent, to $87.24 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Earlier, it touched $85.50 a barrel.

To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.



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Global Stocks, U.S. Index Futures Fall as Credit Crisis Widens

By Adria Cimino and Chua Kong Ho

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks tumbled around the world, the euro fell the most against the yen since its debut and oil dropped below $90 a barrel as the yearlong credit market seizure caused bank bailouts to spread through Europe. Government bonds rallied.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index headed for its steepest drop since October 1997 as Russia's Micex Index fell 17 percent, before trading was halted. BHP Billiton Ltd. slid 7.8 percent and UBS AG lost 9.4 percent as commodities producers and banks dropped the most in the MSCI World Index. The gauge of 23 developed countries is down 30 percent this year, the worst annual performance since at least 1970.

The euro weakened the most against the yen since 1999 after the German government and state banks were forced to pledge $68 billion to rescue Hypo Real Estate Holding AG. Crude dropped 39 percent from its record on July 11 as the global economy slowed. Investors seeking the safety of government bonds pushed yields on two-year Treasury notes to 1.5 percent, 50 basis points below the Federal Reserve's main interest rate.

``It's like a fire,'' said Emmanuel Soupre, a fund manager at Neuflize OBC Asset Management in Paris, which oversees the equivalent of $33 billion. ``It's easier to extinguish five minutes after the start. Now we're about an hour into it. We have to act quickly to assure the continuity of the financial system to avoid an irreversible contamination of the entire economy.''

The MSCI World Index lost 2.5 percent to 1,110.04 at 1:19 p.m. in London as all 10 industry groups decreased. National markets in China, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. fell more than 4 percent.

The Fed said today it ``stands ready'' to foster ``liquid money market conditions.''

`Seeing Panic'

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index sank 5.1 percent as BNP Paribas SA said it will take control of Fortis in Belgium and Luxembourg. Only six stocks in the index rose. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 4.4 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 2.5 percent, as JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. bank by deposits, fell 5.3 percent.

``We're seeing panic all over the markets right now,'' said Javier Barrio, head of equity sales for Spanish clients at Banco BPI SA in Madrid. ``Governments are taking steps to try to reduce investors' fears but confidence is weak.''

National benchmark indexes sank in all 18 western European markets. France's CAC 40 slumped 5.3 percent, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 decreased 4.6 percent. Germany's DAX fell 4.9 percent.

In Asia, Japan's Topix index lost 4.7 percent, and South Korea's Kospi slipped 4.3 percent. China's CSI 300 Index fell 5.1 percent, as trading resumed after a one-week holiday.

Emerging Markets

Indonesian stocks plunged the most since the 2002 Bali bombings and the rupiah and bonds dropped as investors exited commodities and emerging markets to limit losses in a global rout.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 6.2 percent. Turkey's ISE National 100 Index sank 7.1 percent, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All-Share Index tumbled 9.8 percent.

Accelerating bailouts of financial companies and bank credit losses and writedowns approaching $600 billion has spurred the rout in global equities. The MSCI World is valued at 13.2 times the earnings of its companies, the lowest since at least 1995, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Europe's Stoxx 600 trades at 10.4 times earnings, near the lowest since at least 2002, while the S&P 500 is valued at 20.9 times earnings.

`Challenged'

UBS, the European bank worst hit by credit crisis, lost 9.4 percent to 21.72 francs. The bank's earnings power may be ``challenged for some time,'' and UBS may write down $3.1 billion in the third quarter, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney wrote in a note to clients. The Swiss bank has posted $44 billion in losses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's largest bank, fell 9.2 percent to 806 yen. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. dropped 7.8 percent to 402,000 yen.

JPMorgan slid 5.3 percent to $43.48 in trading before the U.S. stock market opened.

BNP Paribas dropped 3.5 percent to 68.84 euros. France's biggest bank agreed to take control of Fortis in Belgium and Luxembourg for 14.5 billion euros ($19.8 billion) after an earlier government rescue failed to ensure the company's stability.

Hypo Real Estate plunged 36 percent to 4.78 euros. The German government and the country's banks and insurers agreed on a 50 billion-euro rescue package for the commercial property lender after an earlier bailout faltered.

`Complete Reform'

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the government will guarantee savings of private account holders to prevent a rush of withdrawals from the nation's banking system.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said Britain is ``ready to do whatever it takes'' to help its banks, while Denmark said commercial lenders will provide as much as 35 billion kroner ($6.4 billion) over the next two years to a fund to insure depositors against losses.

U.S. President George W. Bush last week signed a $700 billion rescue package into law to stem a banking crisis that has claimed Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

The euro earlier reached $1.3540. It fell to 141.97 yen, the weakest since May 18, 2006, as investors cut holdings of higher-yielding currencies funded in the Japanese currency.

``The euro zone is the second domino of the globe to be falling over after the U.S.,'' said Alex Sinton, a senior currency dealer at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Auckland.

Money Market

The cost of borrowing in dollars overnight jumped, the British Bankers' Association said. Asian money-market rates stayed at the highest in more than nine months.

BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, sank 7.8 percent to 1,095 pence. Rio Tinto Group, the third-biggest, slipped 10 percent to 3,060 pence.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's biggest oil company, dropped 5.4 percent to 1,540 pence. PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia's biggest power-station coal producer, tumbled 32 percent to 2,175 rupiah, extending a six-day, 19 percent slide.

Crude oil fell for a fourth day in New York, dropping as much as 5.3 percent to $88.89 a barrel. Power station coal prices at Australia's Newcastle port dropped 6.1 percent last week, a seventh decline. Copper declined 6.5 percent to $5,620 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.

UBS's Hong Kong-based economist Duncan Wooldridge reduced his growth forecast in Asia excluding Japan next year to 6.1 percent from 6.9 percent, saying the region will face ``recession-like conditions.''

Treasuries rose for a fourth day, sending two-year notes to their longest winning streak in six weeks.

``It's time to start buying,'' said Hiroyuki Bando, chief manager for fixed income, equities and currencies in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp. ``The economy will become weaker. Interest rates will go lower.''

To contact the reporter for this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net; Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at kchua6@bloomberg;



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Emerging Market Stocks Head for Worst Drop in Two Decades

By Denis Maternovsky and William Mauldin

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging market stocks headed for the biggest drop in at least two decades and exchanges in Russia and Brazil were forced to halt trading as the global banking crisis escalated in Europe and oil fell below $90 a barrel.

Brazil's Bovespa index tumbled 10 percent, while Russia's Micex Index plunged 18 percent before trading was halted for a second time today. Indonesia and Saudi Arabia lost the most in at least six years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slumped 8.2 percent, leaving it poised for the biggest slide ever.

Brazil's two largest companies, Cia. Vale do Rio Doce and Petroleo Brasileiro SA, declined more than 10 percent on concern demand for metals and fuel will weaken. Financial shares tumbled worldwide as BNP Paribas SA agreed to take control of Fortis after a government rescue failed, and German state and financial institutions put together a 50 billion-euro ($68 billion) rescue package for Hypo Real Estate Holding AG.

Russian authorities grappling with the worst financial turmoil since the government's debt default in 1998 have pledged more than $150 billion for banks and companies through loans and tax benefits.

``If people have limited confidence in these several- hundred-year-old banking institutions, then maybe it's no surprise they don't have confidence in the Russian market,'' said Mattias Westman, who helps manage about $5 billion in European emerging markets at Prosperity Capital Management in London. ``I'm sure there will be some casualties.''

Russia's stock market decline along with China and Brazil has pushed the benchmark MSCI emerging market gauge down 44 percent this year, the steepest drop in at least two decades. Stocks included in the index are valued at 10.1 times earnings, the cheapest since 1998, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Russian Banks

Investors pulled almost $60 billion out of Russia in the seven weeks after Aug. 8, according to BNP Paribas, as the war in Georgia, falling oil prices and the seizure in international capital markets drove down equities.

The Finance Ministry pledged $44 billion for OAO Sberbank, VTB Group and OAO Gazprombank, Russia's three biggest banks, on Sept. 17 on the understanding that the funds would be used to end a seizure in money markets after rates soared to a record 11.1 percent.

Sberbank, Russia's biggest bank, dropped as much as 22 percent, and OAO Gazprom, the country's biggest company and its gas export monopoly, fell 19 percent today.

``Dealing with the crisis will remain out of the hands of the domestic authorities,'' said Ivailo Vesselinov, a senior economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in London. ``This just goes to show how fragile sentiment is.''

Russia's Micex index was down 16.7 percent at 770.21, its lowest level since October 2005, before trading was halted for the second time.

Margin Calls

Russian stocks are suffering bigger losses than other emerging markets partly because investors bought their shares with borrowed money and are now facing payment demands, or margin calls, said Aivaras Abromavicius, a fund manager at East Capital in Moscow.

``We are seeing a terrible meltdown in share prices as investors try to guess which company will be the next to have key shareholders facing margin calls,'' said Abromavicius, who helps manage $4.5 billion of assets. ``There is a higher likelihood of margin calls in Russia than anywhere else. For anyone who has pledged shares in exchange for a loan, there is concern that the bank could take possession and dump them on the market.''

The ruble fell for an eighth day to its weakest level in 18 months against the dollar at 26.2043.

`Vulnerable'

Russia's economy is ``vulnerable'' as the credit crisis worsens, with retailers and developers the most at risk, said Andrei Sharonov, managing director at Troika Dialog, Russia's oldest investment bank.

``This problem is not only for financial institutions, but for the whole of industry, for the whole economy,'' Sharonov, a former deputy economy minister, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Moscow today. ``Many companies feel these problems with debt financing.''

Stocks tumbled in Europe and Asia and U.S. index futures dropped, while Treasuries advanced.

The extra yield investors demand to own developing-nation bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries widened 20 basis points to 4.58 percentage points, a four-year high, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI+ Index.

Crude oil dropped below $90 a barrel in New York for the first time since February on concern that slowing global economic growth will reduce demand for fuel.

Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index, which was closed since Sept. 28, fell the most in at least 14 years, losing 9.8 percent. Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index dropped 10 percent to 1,648.74, the biggest loss since the 2002 terrorist attack, on the first day of trading after a four-day holiday.

China, India

China's benchmark CSI 300 Index slid 5.1 percent, its biggest one-day decline since August, after resuming trading today after a week-long holiday. The index has lost 60 percent this year, the world's second-worst performer, on concern the global credit crisis and the Chinese government's measures to tame inflation will slow economic growth.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fell 5.8 percent to 11,801.70, its lowest since September 2006. ICICI Bank Ltd., India's second-biggest lender, fell 2.4 percent and Bank of China Ltd., the country's oldest financial institution, dropped 4.9 percent.

``In this environment, no one wants to buy because things are spiraling downward globally,'' said Ronald Smith, chief strategist at Alfa Bank in Moscow.

Turkey's benchmark index fell 7.9 percent, its biggest decline since May 2006.

Default Swaps

The cost of protecting bonds sold by Russia's government jumped the most in three weeks, rising 26 basis points to 290, according to CMA Datavision in London. Credit default swaps on Ukrainian government debt soared 57 basis points to 900, the highest among Europe's emerging markets, CMA prices show.

Credit-default swaps on Turkey rose 42 basis points to 354, Indonesia surged 78 basis points to 512 and South Korea rose 37 to 266, CMA prices show.

Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. An increase indicates a deterioration in the perception of credit quality.

A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Denis Maternovsky in Moscow at dmaternovsky@bloomberg.net



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