Economic Calendar

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Fed Loans Guided by Raters Grading Subprime Debt AAA

By Alison Fitzgerald

(Corrects reference to third-party ratings publishers in 19th paragraph)

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is basing hundreds of billions in emergency lending on credit ratings from companies that gave AAA grades to toxic securities.

The Fed has purchased $308.5 billion in commercial paper and lent $631.8 billion under eight credit programs, most of which require appraisals of short-term debt and loan collateral by “major nationally recognized statistical ratings organizations.” That, in effect, means Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings.

It is foolhardy to rely on the three New York-based companies, said Keith Allman, chief executive officer of Enstruct Corp., which trains investors in financial modeling and asset valuation. The major raters issued top marks to $3.2 trillion in subprime mortgage-backed securities at the root of the financial crisis.

“They’re outsourcing the credit assessment to a group of people whose recent performance has been unbelievably bad,” said Allman, the New York-based author of three books on structured finance and a former vice president in Citigroup Inc.’s securitized markets unit. “If their goal is to not take a loss on these assets, they should be hiring independent analysts.”

Rating companies are hired by debt issuers to analyze the quality of securities and the likelihood the debt will be repaid. Lenders demand higher interest when a rating is low. If the Fed is relying on unrealistic valuations, it may be charging too little and taking on greater risk than it intends, said Donald van Deventer, CEO of Honolulu-based Kamakura Corp., which provides financial software and consulting.

‘Favored Arbiters’

It’s impossible to gauge the analysis of debt in the Fed programs because the bank won’t reveal whom it’s lending to or the assets accepted as collateral.

Bloomberg News requested details under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure. In its Dec. 8 response to the lawsuit, the central bank said it was allowed to withhold information about trade secrets and commercial information.

Fitch and Moody’s declined to comment specifically on the Fed’s use of their evaluations.

Fed reliance on major rating companies is an important part of “restoring confidence in the financial markets,” said Chris Atkins, an S&P spokesman.

S&P and Moody’s said in statements e-mailed to Bloomberg that they had taken steps to improve the transparency of their ratings systems. Fitch CEO Stephen Joynt told a Congressional hearing on Oct. 22 that the company has become more conservative in its ratings.

Retaining Flexibility

Now is the time to end the trio’s “official status as the government’s favored arbiters of credit quality,” said Michael Aronstein, chief investment strategist for New York-based Oscar Gruss & Son Inc., a closely held broker and dealer.

“From my perspective, their assessments are not worth any more than any other form of advertising,” Aronstein said.

The Fed is confident it’s limiting the risks, said Andrew Williams, a spokesman for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“Reserve banks are never obligated to lend,” Williams said. “We retain flexibility to decline an issuer if we do not feel secured to our satisfaction or otherwise comfortable with the credit.”

The central bank is discussing with two independent analysis companies, Egan-Jones Ratings of Haverford, Pennsylvania, and Realpoint LLC of Horsham, Pennsylvania, how it might use their services, according to their CEOs. Williams said he couldn’t confirm the talks.

‘Dominant Ratings Agencies’

Policy makers should take the opportunity to spearhead a change in the system by elevating the independents, said Alex Pollock, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Unlike the top three, they are paid by investors who subscribe to their services, rather than by businesses whose products they rate. That makes them less likely to grade securities favorably, Pollock said.

“Why would you limit this to the dominant ratings agencies that helped get us into this situation?” he said.

While the Fed can look at appraisals from any of 10 companies certified by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the three biggest rate the vast majority of instruments.

The Fed also requires that the ratings be publicly available through third parties such as Bloomberg LP, owner of Bloomberg News, which provides assessments from seven certified companies, including Moody’s, S&P and Fitch.

Investment Grade

S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos. with 8,500 employees, last year rated 93.6 percent of the $707 billion of U.S. non-agency mortgage-backed securities. Moody’s, which employs 3,000, graded 80.2 percent and Fitch, with a payroll of about 2,100, judged 47.3 percent.

The fourth-busiest rater, DBRS Ltd. of Toronto, analyzed 6.8 percent, according to the newsletter Inside MBS & ABS based in Bethesda, Maryland.

Egan-Jones’s ratings for Bear Stearns Cos., which the Fed propped up with emergency funding in March, and on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which filed for bankruptcy in September, were consistently lower than those from the major companies, according to Sean Egan, president of the service. Egan-Jones has 19 employees.

While Moody’s and S&P classified Lehman debt as A1 and A, respectively, Egan-Jones placed the bank several grades lower, at BBB, as early as May.

A Matrix

Under the emergency programs, the Fed is buying commercial paper that carries at least the equivalent of an A-1 rating, the second-highest for short-term credit. It is lending to banks that can post collateral the major raters deem to be investment grade, or eligible for bank investment. The central bank can reject collateral or commercial paper if it has doubts about creditworthiness or value.

In addition, policy makers reduce the risk of losing money on a declining asset by loaning as little as 75 percent of the market value. They value some securities according to a matrix and use outside firms to appraise the rest, Williams said. The Fed then cuts that figure by as much as 25 percent before lending, according to its Web site.

General Electric Co., Korea Development Bank and Morgan Stanley are among companies that have said they signed up for the commercial paper program.

GMAC LLC, the largest lender to General Motors Corp. car dealers, said in October that it was granted access to the commercial paper facility through its New Center Asset Trust unit. The unit’s paper earned top ratings of P-1 from Moody’s and F1+ from Fitch, though GMAC itself is rated 11 levels below investment grade by Moody’s. S&P on Dec. 5 put the New Center Asset Trust on watch for a possible downgrade.

‘Imprudent’ Lending

Former executives of the three major raters told a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing Oct. 22 that they had relied on outdated models to maximize profits.

Originators of mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations “typically chose the agency with the lowest standards, engendering a race to the bottom in terms of rating quality,” Jerome Fons, a former managing director of credit policy at Moody’s, testified.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said Dec. 4 that it would investigate a Nov. 18 complaint by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, a Washington-based advocate for affordable housing. Moody’s and Fitch made “public misrepresentations” about the soundness of subprime securities that led to “imprudent” mortgage lending, the coalition said.

No Discussions

Senator Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat and chairman of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, is conducting a “preliminary inquiry” into the companies’ role in the financial crisis, he said Dec. 5.

The SEC voted Dec. 3 to bar ratings services from discussing compensation with bankers seeking assessments and to limit gifts to their employees from the underwriters.

From 2002 to 2007, Moody’s and S&P provided top ratings on debt pools that included $3.2 trillion of loans to homebuyers with low credit scores and undocumented incomes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

$997.1 Billion

As subprime borrowers defaulted, the companies downgraded more than three-quarters of the structured investment securities known as CDOs that had been rated AAA.

Writedowns and losses on that debt incurred by banks, brokers, insurers and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac totaled $997.1 billion worldwide, Bloomberg data show.

The central bank wants to stabilize financial markets and mitigate the effects of the recession, as well as “support the functioning of credit markets,” Bernanke said Dec. 1 in a speech in Austin, Texas. He didn’t address the credit rating system.

The Bloomberg lawsuit is Bloomberg LP v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 08-CV-9595, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

To contact the reporter on this story: Alison Fitzgerald in Washington at afitzgerald2@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Euro is the New Flavor of the Month!

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Lena Manousarides | Dec 18 08 13:05 GMT |

The euro is certainly this week's star, with the EUR/USD making a remarkable rally of over 1000 points within the last few days and a similarity between the euro and the recent strengthening of the dollar back in October! Traders are placing their bets on the European currency and may continue to do so as the interest rates differential between Europe and US is growing by the day!

The EUR/USD continues to climb and to break important resistance levels and just this morning we saw another exaggerated move, mainly due to thin trading conditions, with the pair taking out 1.45 and moving up another 200 points in a few minutes, only stopping at 1.4730. Any pullbacks towards 1.45 could find more demand from euro bulls who wish to join in the madness! The next level to watch seems to be 1.4880-1.49; a very important resistance level.

Today we had some important data out of Euro zone and UK, with the German IFO coming out much lower than anticipated, however this didn't make the euro any weaker as traders decided to shrug off the number. The UK retail sales were better than expected, giving the pound a temporary boost, but not enough for the GBP/USD to break higher towards 1.57. The UK economy is still “under construction” and traders do not wish to place their bets on the sterling, at least for now. EUR/GBP is making new record highs daily now and parity seems possible even before the end of the year!

The economic calendar has a few more releases from the US, with jobless claims being one and traders will monitor the number closely thanks to the latest payroll number still fresh in everyone’s mind!

We are seeing the dollar weakening across the board at the moment and although this is not surprising in the aftermath of FED rate cuts and also deteriorating conditions, nevertheless, markets were not ready for such dollar losses such a short space of time! At the moment, the euro has made record weekly gains - more than 1400 points - and in such extreme market conditions we should be expecting these extreme moves. It looks like investors are trying very hard to get rid of their dollars after October’s gains and they have done it in a way that left everyone wondering: Is this euro rally real? Has it got more upside still to come? Was it a correction?

It is crucial to see how this week ends and with the Christmas holidays just a few days away, traders may wish to square their positions ahead of the New Year. Therefore, beware of any choppy action ahead of next week and a hefty correction form hear for the EUR/USD which can start any day now…

Lena Manousarides
Independent Market Analyst and Professional Trader

Email: manousarides@yahoo.comThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

Lena Manousarides is a professional Trader and an independent Market Analyst, who pioneers in Fx trading in Athens, Greece. After several years of professional trading in the Forex Market, Lena formerly worked with FXGreece as a Market Analyst, writing articles on a daily basis, using fundamental and technical analysis. She also writes for several major financial newspapers in Greece and is in the process of becoming professional Commodity Trading Advisor.




Read more...

Gazprom May Cut Gas Exports to Ukraine on January 1

By Greg Walters and Lucian Kim

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom, Russia’s natural-gas exporter, threatened to halt supplies to Ukraine on Jan. 1 should the country fail to pay debts for November and December sales.

The company has received $800 million from Ukraine, along with notification that no more will be paid before the end of the year for supplies in November and December, Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told reporters in Moscow today.

NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy denied it told either Gazprom or gas trader RosUkrEnergo AG that it would cease to make payments this year after transferring $800 million, according to an e-mailed statement from Ukraine’s state-run energy company today. Naftogaz confirmed a statement from President Viktor Yushchenko that the country would transfer $200 million more “in the near future.”

Ukraine will “make efforts” to pay for gas received in November and December, Yushchenko said earlier, without giving a timeframe.

Ukraine still owes more than $2 billion, Gazprom Deputy Chief Executive Officer Alexander Medvedev said.

Gazprom, which provides about a quarter of Europe’s gas, reduced deliveries to Ukraine in January 2006 during a pricing dispute, causing supplies across the European Union to fall. About four-fifths of Russia’s gas exports to Europe pass through Ukraine.

The Moscow-based company plans to send a letter to its foreign business partners today warning of gas-transportation risks related to Ukraine.

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Walters in Moscow at gwalters1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell to 554,000 Last Week

By Bob Willis

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits held near a 26-year high, signaling the labor market is deteriorating as the economy heads into a second year of a recession.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 21,000 to 554,000 in the week that ended Dec. 13, from a revised 575,000 the prior week that was the highest since 1982, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of people staying on benefit rolls also slipped from an almost three-decade high.

The job market is deteriorating as consumers pull back on spending amid a credit crisis and a year-long recession that economists project will extend will into 2009. President-elect Barack Obama, who takes office Jan. 20, has pledged to enact a stimulus plan to save or create 2.5 million jobs.

“This is exactly the stage of the recession where businesses are aggressively cutting employment,” Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “I expect the pace of layoffs to continue.”

Treasuries rose, pushing yields lower. The benchmark 10- year note yielded 2.1 percent as of 8:40 a.m. in New York, down 10 basis points from yesterday and close to a record low. Stock- index futures were higher.

Jobless claims were projected to decline to 558,000 from the 573,000 initially reported the previous week, according to the median projection of 42 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 530,000 to 600,000.

Post-Holiday Surge

Last week’s drop in initial claims followed a surge in claims the week immediately after Thanksgiving, which tends to be the busiest of the year for first-time filings, according to a Labor spokesman.

The report covers the week the Labor Department surveys businesses to calculate this month’s change in payroll employment.

U.S. employers eliminated 533,000 jobs in November, the most since 1974, and the unemployment rate increased to a 15- year high of 6.7 percent, the government said Dec. 5. The economy has lost 1.9 million jobs so far this year as payrolls dropped for 11 consecutive months.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, signals job losses intensified this month. The average rose to a 26-year high of 543,750 for the period ended Dec. 13 from 507,000 during November’s employment survey week, today’s report showed.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 3.3 percent, a 16-year high. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

Regional Breakdown

Forty-six states and territories reported an increase in new claims in the week ended Dec. 6, while six reported a decrease. The biggest increases were reported by North Carolina, reflecting firings at textile mills and furniture manufacturers, and California, where service industries pared staff.

Jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to rise as job growth -- measured by the monthly payroll report -- slows.

The number of applications for jobless benefits are likely to rise even more in the coming month. General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC will shutter about 59 factories over the next month as they struggle to adapt to the worst sales in 26 years and await a verdict on a U.S. rescue of the industry.

Chrysler Shutdown

Chrysler said yesterday it will shut all 30 of its plants for at least a month starting tomorrow, and Ford plans to idle nine of 15 North American assembly plants in the first week of January.

The economy entered a recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced Dec. 1. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month forecast continued contraction in the first half of 2009 and an increase in the unemployment rate to 8.2 percent by the end of the year.

Obama may ask Congress next year to approve a stimulus plan of around $850 billion, according to a transition adviser. The amount would exceed initial estimates by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, as well as surpassing what some economists and the International Monetary Fund say is required.

The incoming administration believes the amount, about 6 percent of the U.S.’s $14 trillion economy, is needed to reverse rising unemployment, said the adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Fed Decision

Noting that “labor-market conditions have deteriorated,” the Federal Reserve this week cut its key target rate to as low as zero from 1 percent and pledged to “employ all available tools” to restore growth in the flagging economy.

Financial services companies are joining manufacturers and construction firms in cutting staff as demand weakens and the credit crisis deepens.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. eliminated 2,500 jobs in the quarter ended Nov. 28 and slashed average pay per worker 45 percent to $363,654 as the firm posted the first quarterly loss since going public almost a decade ago, the company said yesterday.

Charles Schwab Corp., the second-largest independent brokerage by client assets, plans to cut more than 100 jobs as the drop in U.S. stocks lowers revenue next year, the San Francisco-based company said in a statement Dec. 15.

“We expect to see stiff headwinds from an unprecedented financial environment,” Chief Executive Officer Walter Bettinger said in the statement.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Ruble Falls to Record Against Euro; Russia Devalues for 2nd Day

By Emma O’Brien

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The ruble fell to a record against the euro as Russia devalued the currency for a second time this week amid tumbling oil prices and shrinking reserves.

The ruble weakened to an all-time low of 40.1096 per euro, and was 0.8 percent lower as of 2:39 p.m. in Moscow. Bank Rossii allowed the ruble to decline as much as 1.4 percent against its target basket of dollars and euros, the eighth depreciation since Nov. 11, according to a bank official who declined to be identified. The currency fell 15 percent versus the dollar since August.

An internationally condemned war with Georgia, a 66 percent plunge in oil prices and the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression have caused investors to withdraw $211 billion from Russia since August, according to BNP Paribas SA. Bank Rossii drained $162.7 billion, or 27 percent, from its foreign-currency reserves, the world’s third-largest, to prevent a sudden devaluation causing a repeat of the bank runs of 1998, when the ruble tumbled 71 percent against the dollar.

“It’s better that they do this quicker rather than slower because everything is looking particularly weak in Russia with the oil price where it is,” said Eugene Belin, head of fixed income, currencies and commodities in Moscow at Citigroup Inc. “The sooner they’re finished with this devaluation process the better for the economy.”

The ruble was little changed at 27.2087 per dollar today. It weakened 0.4 percent to 33.8393 against the basket, which is made up of about 55 percent dollars and the rest euros and is used to protect Russian exporters from fluctuations in the ruble.

Faltering Economy

The currency plunged as much as 4.2 percent in two days, the biggest drop in a decade against the euro. It is about 10.6 percent below the central bank’s target exchange rate, compared with 9.3 percent yesterday and 3.7 percent on Nov. 11. The weakest end of the corridor that Bank Rossii is defending is “not clear yet,” said Mikhail Galkin, head of fixed-income and credit research in Moscow at MDM Bank.

Barclays Capital says Russia’s economy will sink into a recession next year as the price of Urals crude, the country’s export oil blend, traded at $41.38 a barrel today, below the $70 a barrel average needed to balance the budget in 2009. Industrial production shrank the most last month since the economic collapse 10 years ago. Standard & Poor’s cut Russia’s credit rating last week for the first time in nine years on concern the country is wasting reserves defending the currency.

‘Faustian Bargain’

Russia’s currency reserves fell $1.6 billion to $435.4 billion in the week to Dec. 12, compared with a drop of $17.9 billion the previous week, the central bank said today. That was less than the $4 billion decline expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The stockpile reached a record $598.1 billion in the first week of August.

“The slower they move on the ruble the more it’s going to cost them as everyone gets ahead of the curve,” said James Fenkner, who manages about $100 million of Russian assets at Red Star Asset Management LP in Moscow. “But politically a big, big drop could cost the Kremlin support. They have a Faustian bargain where everyone puts up with them as long as things are going OK.”

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has pledged to use the reserves to prevent a “sharp” devaluation of the currency. The ruble may drop a further 14 percent to as low as 31.8 per dollar in 2009, should the U.S. currency trade around 1.3 per euro, Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina said yesterday, according to Interfax. The dollar fell 1.1 percent to 1.46 per euro today.

Dollar Weakness

Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. are forecasting the ruble will lose as much as 25 percent over the next year as sliding oil erodes Russia’s $91.2 billion current-account surplus. Troika Dialog, the nation’s oldest investment bank, is calling for a one-time depreciation of as much as 20 percent versus the basket in late January after the holiday period. Commerzbank AG expects the currency to be gradually devalued to 35 versus the basket.

Urals slid 0.4 percent today amid concern the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ record production cut yesterday won’t be enough to boost prices that have slumped 71 percent from a July record.

The sliding dollar and weakness of oil prices spurred Bank Rossii to speed up the devaluation, and policy makers may allow another decline tomorrow, said Elisabeth Gruie, an emerging- markets currency strategist in London at BNP Paribas.

Stocks Fall

“With oil prices hovering around $40, there’s motivation for the central bank to continue adjusting the currency,” said Gruie, who expects a further 5 percent depreciation against the basket. “Because locals are mostly fixated on the dollar-ruble rate they’re taking advantage of the weaker generic dollar. It’s a smooth devaluation.”

Russia’s Micex stock index fell 3.9 percent to 617.43, declining for a second day. The nation’s 30-year 7.5 percent dollar-bonds rose for the second day this week, pushing the yield 12 basis points lower to 10.63 percent. The 8.25 percent notes maturing 2010 rose, as the yield slid three basis points to 3.67 percent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Russian property stocks slid in Moscow trading after UniCredit SpA said real-estate prices are so inflated they may need to be halved to lure buyers back to the housing market. OAO Sistema Hals, the developer controlled by Russian billionaire Vladimir Yevtushenkov, slid as much as 11 percent to 319 rubles, as UniCredit called Moscow’s property market “overheated.”

After averaging 7 percent growth in the eight years to 2007, Russia’s economy may shrink as the reduction in oil revenues erodes the country’s $91.2 billion current-account surplus. Russians withdrew 354.5 billion rubles ($13 billion) from savings deposits in October, four times the amount in September and the biggest drop since Bank Rossii started collating the data. The nation is aiming to free float the ruble by 2011.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma O’Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Pound Sinks to Record Against Euro on Zero Interest-Rate Bet

By Gavin Finch

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The pound edged closer to parity with the euro, sinking to a record for the ninth straight day on speculation the Bank of England will follow the Federal Reserve in cutting the cost of borrowing to zero.

The British currency fell to 95.5 pence per euro for the first time as a government report showed the U.K.’s budget deficit widened to a record in November as tax revenue declined because of the worsening recession. A separate report showed mortgage lending fell 51 percent in November from a year earlier.

“U.K. rates are going close to zero and the pound is going to suffer until we get there,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Capital Markets in London. “Parity with the euro is the next big psychological barrier.”

The pound slipped as much as 3 percent to 95.57 pence per euro, the lowest level since the common currency’s debut in 1999. It was at 95.09 pence at 1:19 p.m. in London. Against the dollar, it dropped to $1.5391 from $1.5536 yesterday.

With the economy in recession for the first time in 17 years and institutions reticent to lend because of the global financial crisis, the Bank of England has cut its benchmark interest rate to the lowest in more than five decades.

The central bank reduced the base rate to 2 percent on Dec. 4, down from 5.5 percent at the start of the year. The European Central Bank pared its benchmark to 2.5 percent on the same day. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said there is a limit to how far the bank can cut rates and signaled it may pause in January, according to comments published two days ago.

Fed Goes to Zero

The Fed cut interest rates on Dec. 16 to a range of zero to 0.25 percent and said it “will employ all available tools” and keep borrowing costs low for “some time.”

The pound has fallen 22 percent against the euro and the dollar this year. Against a trade-weighted index, it has fallen 23 percent in the year to 72.54, the lowest level on record, according to indexes compiled by Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s biggest currency trader.

“We’re seeing the sterling downtrend accelerate,” said Ian Stannard, a foreign-exchange strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “There is potential for further sterling weakness toward the parity level.”

The pound has plummeted this week as separate reports showed jobless claims rose last month at the fastest pace since 1991, house prices extended declines and inflation slowed.

‘Be Aggressive’

Interest-rate futures showed traders raised bets U.K. policy makers will reduce borrowing costs, with the implied yield on the March short-sterling three-month contract dropping 12 basis points today to 1.71 percent. It was at 2.20 percent a week ago.

“The monetary authorities have got to be aggressive,” former policy maker Charles Goodhart, now a professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview broadcast yesterday.

Goodhart said Bank of England Governor Mervyn King should approach next year with “courage, flexibility and perhaps going a bit too far with the very serious occasion we’re in.”

The U.K. economy shrank 0.5 percent in the third quarter, and the central bank last month predicted it would contract through most of next year. Policy makers said that surveys signaled further drops in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter and the first three months of 2009.

Britain had a 16 billion-pound ($24.6 billion) budget deficit last month, the largest since records began in 1993, the Office for National Statistics said in London today.

The pound tumbled yesterday after the government said the number of Britons receiving unemployment benefits rose 75,700 to 1.07 million people, the highest level since July 2000.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Brazilian Central Bank Says Inflation Risk Is Easing

By Joshua Goodman and Katia Cortes

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s central bank said declining commodity prices and shrinking credit caused by the global financial crisis were damping domestic demand and diminishing the risk of inflation being revived.

“The risk of a less benign inflation scenario materializing has fallen from a few months ago, though remains a relevant possibility,” policy makers said, according to the minutes of their Dec. 9-10 meeting released today on the central bank’s Web site.

The minutes may cement expectations that bank President Henrique Meirelles will cut rates at the bank’s next meeting Jan. 20-21, economists said. Inflationary pressure caused by a 30 percent slide in the real since September is being contained by the credit contraction, which the bank said could “magnify in a relevant way the impact of monetary policy.”

The majority of central bank policy makers discussed the possibility of cutting the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point before deciding unanimously to leave the so-called Selic rate unchanged at 13.75 percent, citing an economic environment of “great uncertainty.”

Overnight futures contracts slid while the currency strengthened. The yield on the overnight futures contract for January 2010 delivery dropped 9 basis points to 12.41 percent at 8:33 a.m. New York time. The currency strengthened 0.6 percent to 2.3499 reais per dollar.

‘No Doubt’

Policy makers will probably cut rates at their next meeting Jan. 20-21 as the freeze in credit markets persists, outweighing the inflationary impact from a 30 percent slide in the local currency since September, analysts said.

“Barring a disaster, there’s now no doubt they’ll cut rates in January,” Carlos Thadeu de Freitas, chief economist at SLW Asset Management, said in a phone interview from Rio de Janeiro. “Policy makers aren’t just looking at inflation anymore; they’re also trying to head off a recession.”

Freitas is predicting a 50 basis-point cut at the next meeting, as the risk of deflation caused by slowing activity intensifies. The central bank last cut interest rates in September 2007, by 25 basis points.

Wholesale inflation slowed more than analysts expected in the 20 days since Nov. 21, the Getulio Vargas Foundation said today in the preview of its monthly IGP-M index.

The index rose 0.05 percent compared to the same 20-day period a month ago, surprising 15 of 20 analysts in a Bloomberg survey whose median estimate was for a 0.10 percent increase.

In the first 10 days of the collection period, prices rose 0.14 percent.

“In its evaluation of risk, the bank is asymmetrically pointing to a slowdown in demand overtaking inflation concerns,” said Freitas.

Jankiel Santos, chief economist at Banco Espirito Santo de Investimento SA, also expects the bank to cut rates in January.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Goodman in Rio de Janeiro at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Yen Declines as Japan Signals It May Move to Limit Currency

By Jamie McGee and Michael J. Moore

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell from near a 13-year high against the dollar and tumbled versus the euro after Japan’s government signaled it may intervene in the foreign- exchange market for the first time in four years.

Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said he has “the means” to limit the yen’s advance, which undermines Japanese exporters by raising prices for overseas customers. The dollar erased its annual gain against the euro on bets the Federal Reserve’s near- zero interest-rate policy will reduce the appeal of U.S. assets. The pound tumbled to a record against the euro for a ninth day.

“The rhetoric from Japan picked up in a fairly significant way in the past 24 hours,” said Jim McCormick, London-based global head of foreign-exchange and local-markets strategy at Citigroup Inc., in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “If you’re going to intervene, why not do it in what is probably going to be one of the most illiquid periods of what has been a pretty illiquid year, which is the time between now and the end of the year.”

The yen fell 1.5 percent to 88.52 per dollar at 9:11 a.m. in New York, from 87.24 yesterday, when it reached 87.14, the highest level since July 1995. The euro increased 2.2 percent to 128.62 yen from 125.80 yesterday. The dollar dropped 0.8 percent to $1.4529 per euro from $1.4419, weakening beyond $1.47 for the first time since Sept. 25.

The dollar depreciated 21 percent against the yen this year, the most since 1987, as more than $1 trillion of credit- market losses sparked a seizure in money markets and threw the world’s largest economy into a recession.

‘Keenly Watching’

Nakagawa is “keenly watching” developments in foreign- exchange and other financial markets as well as the economy, he said at a news conference in Tokyo. “I’m going to refrain from saying now whether we’ll intervene or not, but I have the means,” the finance minister said.

Japan may step into foreign-exchange markets following the yen’s recent gains, Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura said today in Tokyo. The government expects the Bank of Japan to respond appropriately to the yen, he said. Central banks buy or sell currencies when they seek to influence exchange rates. The yen gained 26 percent versus the dollar this year.

Honda Motor Co., Japan’s second-largest automaker, cut its full-year profit forecast this week by 62 percent, citing a surging yen and falling sales in North America and Europe.

Yen Interventions

The last time Japan intervened on its own, it sold a record 20.4 trillion yen in 2003 and 14.8 trillion yen in the first quarter of 2004, when the yen strengthened to 103.42 per dollar. Japan hasn’t bought yen since 1998, when it spent 3.05 trillion yen as the currency reached a low of 147.66. The Group of Seven, which comprises the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Italy and Canada, propped up the dollar in 1995, when it declined to a post-World War II low of 79.75 yen.

Japan may struggle to reverse the yen’s advance, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“Even if Japanese Ministry of Finance intervenes in the dollar-yen market, the impact should be limited and short- lived,” analysts including Holly Huffman in New York, Kamal Sharma in London and Tohru Sasaki in Tokyo wrote in a report today. “Japan cannot afford to conduct massive” amounts of sales, they said.

The dollar declined against the euro on speculation the Fed has fewer tools left to combat a recession. The central bank lowered its target rate for overnight lending on Dec. 16 to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, the lowest among major economies, from 1 percent. The central bank reiterated plans to purchase agency debt and mortgage-backed securities and said it will study buying Treasuries.

Treasury Yields

Ten-year Treasury yields touched 2.0711 percent yesterday, the lowest level ever.

“Further destruction in U.S. yields is single-handedly reversing the benefits of previous U.S. dollar safe-haven properties,” Standard Chartered Plc analysts led by Callum Henderson in Singapore wrote in a report today. “Unless other G-7 central banks, with the exception of Japan, the original merchant of zero rates, follow in the Fed’s footsteps, rate differentials will weigh heavily on the U.S. dollar for quite some time.”

Standard Chartered cut its dollar forecasts today. The U.S. currency will end the first quarter at $1.50 per euro and 75 yen. Its previous predictions were $1.20 and 95 yen.

The pound weakened beyond 95 pence per euro for the first time on speculation the Bank of England may follow the Fed in cutting the target lending rate to near zero. Sterling later dropped 2.2 percent to 94.86 pence and 1.2 percent to $1.5357.

Stark on Inflation

The euro also rose after European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark, speaking in a Manager magazine interview, underscored the threat of inflation from expansive monetary policies. The ECB reduced its main refinancing rate three times since the end of September, lowering it to 2.5 percent from 4.25 percent to contain the fallout from the global financial crisis.

“The very strong euro is related to the dichotomy between the paths the Fed and ECB are taking,” said Steven Barrow, head of G-10 currency research in London at Standard Bank Plc. “The ECB is out on a limb with respect to the rest of the world on rates and that’s what’s creating this strength.”

There’s a 54 percent chance BOJ policy makers will lower borrowing costs from 0.3 percent at a two-day meeting starting today, according to calculations by JPMorgan using overnight interest-rate swaps.

“The Bank of Japan is set to cut rates to 0.15 percent overnight and open the door to quantitative easing,” wrote Fiona Lake, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in a note to clients. “Contrary to history, the yen is likely to benefit given the Bank of Japan’s experience with this policy framework compared to elsewhere.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Jamie McGee in New York at jmcgee8@bloomberg.net; Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Canadian Dollar Weakens for the First Time in Four Days

By Chris Fournier

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s currency weakened for the first time in four days.

The Canadian dollar dropped 0.2 percent to C$1.1933 per U.S. dollar at 8:28 a.m. in Toronto, from C$1.1915 yesterday. The currency touched C$1.1819, the strongest since Nov. 10. One Canadian dollar buys 83.80 U.S. cents.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Tin Risks Collapse as Support Gives Way: Chart of the Day

By Claudia Carpenter

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The price of tin, which has fallen the least among raw materials on the London Metal Exchange, may collapse after slipping below “trendline support,” Barclays Capital said.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows tin for delivery in three months on Dec. 16 fell below the metal’s support line since Oct. 24. Nickel, zinc, aluminum and lead on the London exchange have already broken “significant long-term support,” Barclays technical analyst Phil Roberts said in London yesterday. Tin has dropped 34 percent this year on the exchange, compared with a 63 percent slump in nickel and 62 percent in lead.

“Every time we’ve seen those levels tested in the other base metals recently, they’ve given way,” Roberts said. “The story is it’s bearish near term” for tin.

Tin for delivery in three months may fall to $9,004 a metric ton, the lowest since October 2006, Roberts said. Tin traded at $10,930 a ton as of 11:16 a.m. in London.

Electronics companies that use tin to stick components on printed circuit boards make up more than 50 percent of demand, according to industry group ITRI Ltd. Apple Inc., maker of the iPod music player, has tumbled 55 percent in New York trading on anticipation a global recession will curb spending on gadgets.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net or ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Aluminum Extends Drop as Automaker Shutdowns Curb Consumption

By Claudia Carpenter

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum extended declines in London as automakers prepare for factory shutdowns, further crimping demand for industrial metals. Copper also fell.

General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC said they will close 59 factories over the next month. Aluminum inventories have more than doubled this year as recessions in the U.S., Japan and Germany curbed demand faster than miners have reduced production.

“Aluminum has its mind set firmly on overall poor economic conditions and the poor demand side of the equation,” said William Adams, an analyst at BaseMetals.com in London. Car shutdowns “just confirm how poor this current situation is.”

Aluminum for delivery in three months dropped $25, or 1.7 percent, to $1,485 a metric ton as of 11:48 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange.

Chrysler will shut all 30 of its plants for at least a month starting tomorrow. A car contains 319 pounds of aluminum, according to the Aluminum Association. In Japan, where vehicle sales may fall 4.9 percent next year, or 250,000 units, that’s equal to 79.75 million pounds (36,174 tons) of lost aluminum demand.

Prices of aluminum fell even as the dollar dropped against the euro and China, the world’s largest producer of aluminum, decided not to lower export taxes that may have boosted supplies.

Declines in the dollar the past two years helped buoy demand for commodities including industrial, or base metals, such as aluminum.

“Base metals have almost totally disregarded weakness of the dollar,” Adams said.

Export Tax

China will keep export duties on aluminum unchanged next year, the Ministry of Finance said today. Aluminum has dropped 38 percent this year, partly on speculation China would reduce export taxes and increase supplies on the international market.

The unchanged export tax “does remove one of the potentially bearish factors for the market,” Adams said.

Supplies in warehouses monitored by the LME rose 27,100 tons, or 1.3 percent, to almost 2.07 million tons, the most since Oct. 25, 1994.

Copper for delivery in three months slid $80 to $2,940 a ton. Inventories of copper in warehouses monitored by the LME increased 2,275 tons to 324,175 tons, the most since Feb. 12, 2004.

Zinc increased $1 to $1,101 a ton.

Tin declined $175 to $10,875 a ton, nickel fell $205 to $9,600 a ton and lead decreased $17 to $968 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net or ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Sugar Climbs for Third Day in N.Y. as Dollar Sinks, Crude Gains

By Ron Day

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar increased for a third day, its longest rising streak since late October, as the dollar’s decline boosted demand for U.S. commodities.

The dollar slid for a seventh session against the euro, on speculation that the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest-rate cut to as little as zero will reduce the appeal of U.S. assets. Crude oil gained in New York in early trading, helping boost demand for ethanol, a fuel made from sugar cane in Brazil.

Raw-sugar futures for March delivery rose 0.03 cent, or 0.3 percent, to 11.76 cents a pound at 9:06 a.m. on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The price has climbed 1 percent this week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Day in New York at rday1@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Oil Falls Below $39 on Signs OPEC Production Cut Is Inadequate

By Mark Shenk

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $39 a barrel for the first time since July 2004 on speculation that OPEC hasn’t trimmed production enough to bolster prices as demand drops.

Futures have tumbled 74 percent from a record $147.27 on July 11 as inventories increased and consumption declined. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut output by 2.46 million barrels to 24.845 million barrels a day at a meeting yesterday in Oran, Algeria.

“Even though OPEC announced a substantial cut yesterday, the market doesn’t seem to have any confidence in their ability to manipulate the market,” said Tom Bentz, senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas in New York. “Even if they make the promised cuts, it will be a long time before we see evidence of it here.”

Crude oil for January delivery fell $1.97, or 4.9 percent, to $38.09 a barrel at 9:43 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $38.01, the lowest since July 1, 2004.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by assets, reduced its 2009 average oil price forecast to $43 a barrel from $69 as a global economic slowdown causes a contraction in demand. The prospect of oil falling to $25 is “hard to dismiss amid a serious deterioration of economic conditions and building stocks,” the bank said in a report released yesterday.

Oil companies have booked 25 supertankers to store crude, enough to supply France for almost a month. The vessels, equal to about 5 percent of the global fleet, can carry as much as 50 million barrels.

“The market is failing to find any support,” Bentz said. “The worries about demand are still out there because of the recession. We’ve got at least 45 million barrels of excess floating storage out there on top of all the storage we’ve got on land.”

Brent crude oil for February settlement increased 11 cents to $45.64 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.




Read more...

Russian Property Stocks Slump in ‘Overheated’ Market

By William Mauldin

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Russian property stocks fell after UniCredit SpA said real-estate prices are so inflated that they may need to drop by half to lure buyers back to the housing market and give the shares a boost.

OAO Sistema Hals, developer of a resort in the Olympic host city of Sochi, and AFI Development Plc, builder of the Mall of Russia in Moscow’s new financial center, led the slide, both sinking to record lows.

Moscow apartment prices have increased sixfold since 2003, making the Russian capital the world’s most expensive residential market after Monaco and London, Global Property Guide said in September. The average price has declined 9.2 percent since reaching a record $6,122 per square meter on Oct. 13, according to Property Market Indicators as of Dec. 15.

“Buyers are unlikely to return until prices fall substantially,” UniCredit analyst Roman Gromov, based in Moscow, wrote in a note to investors dated yesterday. “A few developers are already offering roughly 25 percent discounts, but we see no evidence that they are tempting buyers to return to the market.” Prices of property may need to fall 25 percent to 50 percent before demand recovers, according to UniCredit, which called the market “overheated.”

Only a fall of this scale would “make housing affordable to a meaningful proportion of the population,” the note said.

Funding

Sistema-Hals slid 17 percent to 299.99 rubles on the Micex Stock Exchange. The stock has lost 94 percent this year. AFI Development declined 4.3 percent to 67 cents, a record low.

PIK Group, LSR Group and Sistema-Hals face a “particularly difficult situation given relatively large short-term debt,” UniCredit said, adding that developers don’t have enough money to complete current projects and that banks, the major source of funding, have “almost completely ceased issuing loans and mortgages.”

Russian developer stocks won’t see a “rapid” rebound, Moscow-based Renaissance Capital said yesterday, adding that there is “little hope” they will catch up with global real- estate stocks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Dec. 1 that Russian apartment prices may plunge 32 percent next year in dollar terms.

The Renaissance Capital Property Shares Index of Russian developers has lost 92 percent since its record high in June 2007, more than the 56 percent slide for the GPR 250 Global Index of world property companies since the beginning of June last year. PIK, a Moscow-focused apartment-building developer, has plunged 96 percent in that period.

Russian stocks, bonds and the ruble have tumbled since early August as oil prices declined, Russia fought a war with neighboring Georgia, and investors sold off riskier assets amid the global financial crisis.

OAO Open Investments, a property developer part-owned by billionaire Vladimir Potanin, fell 12 percent to $69 on the RTS Index in Moscow, its first decline this month.

To contact the reporter on this story: William Mauldin at wmauldin1@bloomberg.net;





Read more...

European Stocks Fall for Second Day; Carrefour, Generali Slip

By Adria Cimino

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell as Carrefour SA cut its forecast and Assicurazioni Generali SpA scrapped its profit target, overshadowing speculation President-elect Barack Obama will seek approval for an $850 billion stimulus plan.

Carrefour tumbled 7.3 percent as the retailer reduced its profit and revenue projections for a second time this year. Generali slid 2.3 percent after saying its 2009 targets are no longer valid. Sanofi-Aventis SA and Unilever, which make at least 30 percent of their sales in the Americas, advanced more than 1 percent.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.3 percent to 196.83 at 2:46 p.m. in London, even as more than half of its stocks rose. The measure is down 46 percent this year as credit losses and writedowns at the world’s largest banks surpassed $1 trillion and the U.S., Europe and Japan entered the first simultaneous recessions since World War II.

“The economy hasn’t stopped showing signs of contraction,” Benoit de Broissia, who helps manage about $5.8 billion at KBL Richelieu in Paris, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Stocks will remain volatile. The market remains febrile.”

The Stoxx 600 is headed for a record 46 percent annual drop as credit losses and writedowns at the world’s biggest banks surpassed $1 trillion and Europe, the U.S. and Japan entered the first simultaneous recessions since World War II.

Obama may ask Congress next year to approve a stimulus plan of around $850 billion, an amount that has grown as the U.S. economy sinks deeper into recession, an adviser to the president-elect said. Obama’s transition team believes that the amount is necessary to reverse rising unemployment, said the adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Business Confidence

German business confidence fell to the lowest in more than a quarter century in December as the credit crisis pushes Europe’s largest economy deeper into a recession, figures from the Ifo institute showed today.

National benchmarks rose in half of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent. Germany’s DAX advanced 1.1 percent. France’s CAC 40 lost 0.6 percent.

The S&P 500 retreated from a five-week high yesterday in the U.S. on concern the Federal Reserve has few tools left to combat the recession after reducing its benchmark interest rate to a record low.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson may ask Congress for the second half of the $700 billion bank rescue program, concerned that the deepening recession may spark further financial turmoil.

ECB Meeting

A report today showed the number of Americans filing first- time claims for unemployment benefits held near a 26-year high, signaling the labor market is deteriorating as the economy heads into a second year of a recession.

The European Central Bank may cut its deposit rate as soon as today in an effort to jolt banks into lending more to each other, economists said.

President Jean-Claude Trichet and his governing council meet in Frankfurt after signaling this month they may soon lower the 2 percent rate they pay on cash stashed overnight at the bank by financial companies. They want to encourage banks to lend more and free up capital for consumers and companies.

Carrefour sank 7.3 percent to 27.16 euros. Merrill Lynch & Co. lowered its recommendation to “underperform” and Deutsche Bank AG downgraded the shares to “hold” from “buy” after the retailer reduced its full-year sales and profit forecasts.

Generali Targets

Generali retreated 2.3 percent to 19.16 euros. Italy’s biggest insurer said its 2009 targets are no longer valid and weak financial markets are hurting profit this year.

The 2009 objectives were “formulated in a completely different context,” the Trieste, Italy-based company said in a statement. Generali will wait for markets to stabilize before setting new targets, the company said.

Profits at Stoxx 600 companies are expected to drop 15 percent this year, compared with 11 percent growth forecast at the beginning of 2008, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Sanofi gained 1.7 percent to 46.38 euros. France’s largest drugmaker made almost 34 percent of sales in the U.S. last year, according to Bloomberg data. Unilever climbed 3 percent to 1,550 pence. The world’s second-biggest consumer-products company gets about a third of its revenue in the Americas.

Arriva Plc jumped 4 percent to 569 pence after the operator of the U.K.’s longest train route said group revenue will increase about 50 percent for the full year and there will be “significant” earnings growth.

Oil Stocks

Oil and gas companies were the worst performers among 19 industries in the Stoxx 600 today, losing 2.6 percent as a group, followed by banks and basic-resources companies.

Total SA, Europe’s third-biggest oil company, fell 2.8 percent to 40.32 euros as crude traded near a four-year low. Galp Energia SGPS SA, Portugal’s largest oil and gas company, tumbled 4 percent to 7.41 euros.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, slid 2.3 percent to 1,268 pence as copper, lead, nickel and tin fell in London. Antofagasta Plc, the copper producer controlled by Chile’s Luksic family, retreated 4.4 percent to 427.25 pence.

BNP Paribas SA, France’s largest bank, dropped 4.4 percent to 32.71 euros. Deutsche Bank AG cut its recommendation on the shares to “hold” from “buy.”

Societe Generale SA, the country’s third-biggest lender, lost 5.2 percent to 32.99 euros. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc cut its share-price estimate by 46 percent to 37 euros, citing exposure to “further significant markdowns.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Gold Falls in London, Ending Longest Winning Streak in 2 Years

By Nicholas Larkin

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell in London, erasing earlier gains and ending its longest winning streak in two years, as crude oil prices dropped and the dollar pared losses.

Gold for immediate delivery lost $4.10, or 0.5 percent, to trade at $863.80 by 1:59 p.m. in London. The metal earlier rose as much as 1.2 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

U.K. Stocks Bounce Between Gains and Losses; BA Shares Retreat

By Adam Haigh

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks swung between gains and losses as the failure of British Airways Plc merger talks overshadowed speculation U.S. President-elect Barack Obama will seek approval for an $850 billion stimulus plan to revive the economy.

British Airways, Europe’s third-largest airline, dropped 1.1 percent after it was unable to reach an agreement on “key terms” over a merger with Qantas Airways Ltd. GlaxoSmithKline Plc, which made more than 44 percent of its sales in the U.S. last year, added 1.1 percent as an adviser to the president-elect Obama may ask Congress next year to approve a stimulus plan.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index added 6.39, or 0.1 percent, to 4,330.58 at 1:00 p.m. in London. The FTSE All-Share Index climbed 0.3 percent and Ireland’s ISEQ Index slid 1.7 percent.

“The collapse of the British Airways talks are getting negative reaction in the short term, but it shows there is one industry where we will see consolidation next year,” said Richard Hunter, head of U.K. equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers in London. “We need to see all the intervention from the authorities working it’s way through as there is no escaping concerns going into next year about the extent of the economic slowdown.”

The benchmark FTSE 100 has slumped 33 percent this year as more than $1 trillion in global losses and writedowns at financial firms froze credit markets and sent the U.S., Europe and Japan into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II.

British Airways Drops

British Airways dropped 1.1 percent to 170.2 pence. The two airlines halted negotiations after British Airways Chief Executive Officer Willie Walsh and his Qantas counterpart Alan Joyce couldn’t reach agreement on who would control the company, Tony Cane, a spokesman for the London-based carrier, said.

GlaxoSmithKline, the world’s second-biggest drugmaker, added 1.1 percent to 1,213 pence. Unilever, the world’s second-largest consumer-products company which made 33 percent in the Americas last year, added 3.3 percent to 1,555 pence.

The following stocks also rose or fell in the U.K. market. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

Arriva Plc (ARI LN), the operator of the U.K.’s longest train route, added 4 percent to 569 pence after saying the group’s revenue will increase about 50 percent for the full year and there will be ‘significant’ earnings growth, as the company expected.

Marks & Spencer Group Plc (MKS LN), Britain’s largest fashion retailer, fell 2.25 pence, or 1 percent, to 225.25 on concern that discounts on products from coats to champagne may be failing to halt a decline in holiday sales.

Morgan Sindall Plc (MGNS LN) climbed 9.9 percent to 565.5 pence after the U.K.’s biggest supplier of office interiors said it is well placed to achieve long-term growth and sees record profit in the current year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

BCE, CI Financial, Saputo, Sun Life: Canadian Equity Preview

By John Kipphoff

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes in Canadian trading today. Trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange is scheduled to reopen today after being halted most of yesterday due to a technical problem.

Stock symbols are in parentheses and prices are from trades that took place before the Toronto Stock Exchange suspended trading because of a data dissemination glitch at about 9:48 a.m. yesterday. Stock symbols indicate when prices are from other platforms with greater trading volumes.

There was no quote for the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index yesterday because of the trading halt. The S&P/TSX rose 3.1 percent to 8,724.11 on Dec. 16.

Banks may move after Moody’s Investors Service Inc. said in a report that a bankruptcy by General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. or Chrysler LLC would have a “profound” affect on Ontario. Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal and Royal Bank of Canada have the most in loans tied to the auto industry, Moody’s said.

Royal Bank (RY CJ) dropped 1.4 percent to C$34.46 as more than 3.1 million shares changed hands on Pure Trading, an alternative trading platform owned by the Canadian National Stock Exchange. Scotiabank (BNS CN) slipped 1.1 percent to C$29.77. Bank of Montreal (BMO CN) fell 0.6 percent to C$30.16.

BCE Inc. (BCE CN): Canada’s biggest phone company is seeking a C$1.2 billion ($1 billion) breakup fee, accusing the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and private-equity firms in a lawsuit of withdrawing from a takeover prematurely. BCE, Canada’s biggest telecommunications company, filed the complaint yesterday in Montreal, following the Dec. 11 collapse of the C$52 billion deal. The shares rose 3 percent to C$21.95.

CI Financial Income Fund (CIX-U CN): Canada’s second-largest independent mutual-fund company agreed to sell C$210 million ($175 million) in stock to pay debt and boost cash. Participating investors agreed to buy 15 million units of the fund at C$14 each, and will have the option until Dec. 31 to buy 2.25 million more. The shares fell 0.7 percent to C$14.

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP CN): The country’s second- largest railroad said it laid off 600 engineers and maintenance workers because some companies have cut back on shipments. The shares rose 1.3 percent to C$42.29.

Finning International Inc. (FTT CN): The world’s biggest dealer in Caterpillar Inc. equipment said it cut more than 500 jobs in Canada and the U.K. as demand waned. The shares fell 2.4 percent to C$12.15.

Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS CN): The insurer said it plans to cut 162 jobs, freeze salaries and eliminate most bonuses in a bid to return to profitability. The shares rose 2.2 percent to C$5.48 in Toronto Stock Exchange composite trading. They added 4.6 percent to $4.76 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Opti Canada Ltd. (OPC CN): The oil-sands producer that’s fallen 89 percent this year sold a stake in the Alberta Long Lake project to partner Nexen Inc. (NXY CN) for C$735 million ($608 million), to meet debt payments. Opti added 1.6 percent to C$1.90. Nexen fell 4.6 percent to C$21.63.

Saputo Inc. (SAP CN): Canada’s biggest cheesemaker was started with a “sector outperform” rating in new coverage by Turan Quettawala at Scotia Capital. The Toronto analyst set a one-year share-price target of C$30. The shares were unchanged at C$21.29 yesterday.

Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF CN): Canada’s third-largest insurer may bid for U.S.-based units of American International Group Inc., the Globe and Mail reported. Sun Life aims to use the C$2.3 billion ($1.9 billion) the company raised in the sale of its stake in money manager CI Financial Income Fund for acquisitions, the report said, citing people it didn’t identify.

Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC CN), Canada’s biggest insurer, may bid for Japanese units of AIG, the Globe said. Sun Life fell 2 percent to C$24.75. Manulife dropped 3.7 percent to C$20.35.

Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI CN): The financial news and data provider may sell as much as $3 billion of unsecured debt over the next 25 months, according to a regulatory filing. The shares fell 1.1 percent to C$32.55.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Kipphoff in Toronto at jkipphoff@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Bovespa Rises to 2-Month High on Rate Speculation, Oil Drop

By Alexander Ragir

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s Bovespa index climbed to a two-month high on speculation policy makers may cut borrowing costs after the central bank said lower commodity prices were damping inflation and oil prices tumbled.

Rossi Residencial SA and Lojas Renner SA led a rally in homebuilders and retailers on speculation lower interest rates would bolster consumer spending. Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA, the biggest supplier of steel for the auto industry, gained 3.5 percent on the prospect of increased auto demand. Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA rose, capping a 14 percent three- day gain, as lower oil prices may boost profit.

“The central bank has been very quick to react and has been making sure there’s enough money for trade lines along with helping out sectors in the eye of the storm like the auto industry,” said Jacopo Valentino, who oversees $2 billion in Latin American stocks at BNP Paribas Asset Management in Sao Paulo. “The risk of sliding into a recession in Brazil is limited.”

The Bovespa Index gained 538.87, or 1.4 percent, to 40,486.30 at 8:44 a.m. New York time. Ten stocks rose for every one that fell on the index. Chile’s Ipsa gained 0.1 percent.

Rossi, Brazil’s third-biggest homebuilder, jumped 5.1 percent to 3.74 reais. Lojas Renner, Brazil’s biggest publicly traded clothing retailer, climbed 3.5 percent o 16.05 reais.

“The committee considers that the risk of a less benign inflation scenario materializing has fallen compared to a few months ago, though remains a relevant possibility,” policy makers said, according to the minutes of their Dec. 9-10 meeting released today on their Web site.

Rate Outlook

The majority of policy makers discussed the possibility of cutting the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point before deciding unanimously to leave the so-called Selic rate unchanged at 13.75 percent, citing an economic environment of “great uncertainty.”

The minutes may cement expectations that bank President Henrique Meirelles will cut rates at the bank’s next meeting Jan. 20-21, economists said.

Usiminas, as Brazil’s second-biggest steelmaker is known, advanced 3.5 percent to 29.49 reais.

Gol gained 5.8 percent to 11 reais. Tam SA, Brazil’s biggest airline, rose 2.5 percent. Fuel makes up about 40 percent of costs for airlines. Crude oil prices dipped to a four-year low yesterday after U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles gained and on concern OPEC members may not comply with agreed cutbacks.

“All in all we are removing the crazy oil prices that was creating trouble for so many industries, especially airlines,” said Valentino. Oil prices below $40 a barrel “sounds like music.”

The Bovespa has fallen 37 percent this year, poised for the worst year on record, as the credit crisis and global slowdown crimped demand for the nation’s commodities. The BM&FBovespa Small Cap index climbed 1.1 percent. The BM&FBovespa MidLarge Cap index gained 0.9 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio de Janeiro at aragir@bloomberg.net;





Read more...