Economic Calendar

Monday, October 27, 2008

World markets slump; Nikkei at 26-year low

Updated: 2008-10-27

(China Daily) LONDON -- World stock markets slumped again Monday with the Nikkei index in Japan closing at its lowest in 26 years as the financial crisis drove up the yen, piling the pressure on the country's exporters.


A man walks past a display showing stock prices at a brokerage firm in Hong Kong Monday, Oct. 27, 2008. Asian stocks swung mostly lower in choppy trade Monday as investors braced for more volatility after last week's massive sell-off. The Hang Seng index closed the morning session down 532 points, or 4.22 percents at 12,086.38 points. [Agencies]


Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index closed down 6.4 percent to 7,162.90 - the lowest since October 1982. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tumbled 12.7 percent to 11,015.84, its lowest close in more than four years and biggest daily decline since 1991.

European markets followed Asia lower, with benchmarks in Britain, Germany and France trading down more than 4 percent in early trading. The FTSE 100 index was 190.31 points, or 4.9 percent, lower at 3,693.05, while Germany's DAX was down 182.81 points, or 4.3 percent, at 4,112.86. France's CAC-40 was the worst performing European index, down 184.65 points, or 5.8 percent, at 3,009.14.

"Worries about the impact of the surging yen on Japanese export earnings have hit the Nikkei hard," said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics.

"This in turn has led to sharp falls in European markets even when, as on Friday, the US had closed higher the day before," he added.

Dow futures were down 268 points, or 3.2 percent, at 7,994. Standard & Poor's 500 futures were down about 4 percent.

Mounting concerns about the yen and the effect of the financial crisis on currency markets prompted the world's seven leading industrial nations to issue a statement Sunday warning about the "recent excessive volatility" in the value of the Japanese currency, which is rising against the US dollar towards the 90 yen level and near 13-year highs.

"We continue to monitor markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate," the G7 said.

The statement has raised the prospect of coordinated intervention to stem the yen's appreciation.

"Although action could emerge at any time, it seems to us that it would achieve its maximum impact were it seen to be led by the US Treasury," said Simon Derrick, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

"The New York morning today may therefore provide an ideal opportunity for them to make a clear statement of intent," he added.

The euro and the pound continued to drop, with the pound 3.4 percent lower at US$1.54 and the euro down 1.8 percent down at US$1.24. The euro is under pressure from fears about banks' exposure to emerging markets and expectations the European Central Bank will cut interest rates.

As well as potentially coordinating action in the currency markets, there's growing speculation that the world's leading central banks may cut interest rates together soon to help calm markets and provide some impetus to the stalling global economy. The US Federal Reserve is already expected to cut its benchmark interest rate a half percentage point to 1 percent at a two-day meeting that ends Wednesday.




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U.S. Market Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | Oct 27 08 15:40 GMT |

Dow -37 S&P -9.4 NASDAQ -19

In a depressingly familiar scenario, deep declines in Asia and Europe are dragging down US indices in early trading. Fears about global credit markets are re-emerging, especially after Asian money market rates rose overnight. The USD LIBOR fixing rates have found a floor, with neither the overnight nor the three-month making much downward progress at all today. PIMCO's Bill Gross told CNBC that he believes LIBOR rates will loosen this week thanks to the Treasury's commercial paper program. Crude is getting even closer to $60 in early trading, below Friday's close. In other commodities, copper is bouncing ever so slightly after a long period of decline. September new home sales data came in a bit ahead of expectations, providing a nice follow-up to last week's news that sales of existing homes rose more than 5% in September. The data buoyed indices momentarily, although it's hard to forget that new home sales are still down more than 30% y/y.

More regional banks are piling into the Treasury's bank recapitalization program under TARP, selling preferred shares and warrants to the government. Reports had circulated that the Treasury would release a full list banks receiving capital infusions, although no such list has been forthcoming so far. Before the open Capital One ($3.55B or 26% of market cap), SunTrust ($3.5B or 12.3% of market cap), KeyCorp ($2.5B or 50% of market cap) and State Street ($2.0B or 17% of market cap) announced that they would join up, among several other smaller regional bank names, including Comerica, City National and Northern Trust. The news helped COF, STI and STT spike up 2-6% in early trading, although all three are headed for negative territory mid morning. Bucking this trend, KEY+8% has remained relatively strong. Reports circulated that the Treasury was also getting further requests for assistance from GM-6%, this time to finance a potential merger with Chrysler.

Humana, Lowe's and CNA Financial are hurting after reporting earnings, while Verizon is making strong gains mid morning. VZ+8% reported earnings and revenue figures in line with expectations, while operating metrics for the quarter showed no immediate impact from the economic slowdown. On the conference call, the CFO offered a rare view on the Verizon's long-term earnings outlook, guiding in line with estimates for the 2008 period. Apart from significant EPS impairments for investment losses, HUM-9% met earnings expectations for the quarter despite a bit of a miss on revenue. But investors are dumping the stock after the healthcare giant slashed its FY08 guidance. Traders are punishing L-14% and subsidiary CAN-20% after Lowe's said it would inject $1.25B into CAN, its insurance subsidiary, to shore up operations after massive investment losses. Loew's also said it would buy $1.0B in securities from Boardwalk Pipeline natural gas subsidiary to fund an expansion. This come on top of Loew's fairly huge loss for the quarter. In other equity news, trading in GGP has been volatile after both the CEO and president resigned over personal loan controversies. The company also announced that it is selling its portfolio of Las Vegas real estate and is continuing to evaluate strategic alternatives. GGP was down as much as 6%, but is back up around +4% mid morning.

The currency markets saw a retreat of the price action that dominated Asian and European trading earlier. Carry-related pairs retraced initial losses the waves of liquidation from earlier in the session ebb away for the time being. Overall, the currency markets remain highly volatile on a historical basis. French Finance Minister Lagarde said that the G-7 had no plans for yen intervention and added that any intervention would be from the Japanese themselves. Then the ECB's Trichet repeated the standard fare concerning the secondary effects of inflation, also noting that there was a chance the ECB would cut interest rates at its Nov 6th policy meeting. Trichet also insisted that cutting is not a foregone conclusion, reflecting the ECB's "no pre-commitment" policy. The USD is firmer against the EUR and GBP from opening levels seen in Asia, but is mixed against the carry-related pairs. Euro-Stoxx 50 Index -2.2% at 2,280; FTSE 100 Index -0.7% at 3,854; CAC 40 Index -3.25 at 3,091 and DAX Index -1.7% at 4,222. The European yield curve flattened during the course of the NY morning; aided by the rebound in stocks from their opening level lows. Dec Bund flat at 117.08 and Dec Gilts -16 ticks at 112.62.

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

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ECB's Trichet Says Central Bank May Cut Again In November

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Oct 27 08 15:10 GMT |

In a recent interview, ECB President Jean Claude Trichet said the policy authority may once again ease lending rates at its November 6th meeting in response to the ongoing credit problems and the deterioration in global economic conditions. For those unfamiliar with the central banker's semantics, his merely opening the market to the possibility may seem uneventful; but those familiar with his methods know his history of transparency and know this more or less sets up a cut next week. This is particularly meaningful for the euro as the European Central Bank's maintenance of rates on the basis of inflation alone had kept the currency at its highs. The shift in outlook and exchange rates has been dramatic. When asked how large such a cut may be, Trichet wouldn't comment; but the market is clearly pricing in substantial easing over the coming years, so a 50bp cut would not come as a surprise. Further confirming the high probability of further easing though, the President suggested that the pull back in inflation was significant and convincing; while wage and price setters were begin to capitulate to economic conditions. The theme of his statement could be summed up by his admission that he would not underestimate the gravity of the market's current situation.

DailyFX

Disclaimer

Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.





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New Home Sales Bounced Higher in September

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wachovia Corporation | Oct 27 08 15:07 GMT |

New home sales bounced up to 464,000 units in September from a downwardly revised August figure. Still, the current pace of sales is extremely slow and may not hold up into October as the credit crunch intensified and consumers became increasingly worried about the economic outlook. Inventories made solid improvements.

New Home Sales Bounced

  • Sales bounced higher to 464,000 units off the new cycle low of 452,000 seen last month. Despite the improvement, September still marks the second slowest pace of sales in this cycle. We do not expect to see continued improvements as the credit crunch intensified anew in October. Mortgage credit remains constrained and consumers are worried about the economy.

Inventories Continued to Improve

  • Inventories continued to improve rapidly, dropping below the 400,000 level for the first time since 2004. The month-over-month decline of 26,000 units marks the largest one month decline on record. Since peaking in 2006, inventories have declined 30.5 percent. As we have long noted, inventory improvement is a key step toward market stabilization.

Wachovia Corporation
http://www.wachovia.com

Disclaimer: The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wachovia Corporation and its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wachovia Corporation or any of its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or any foreign exchange transaction, or as personalized investment advice. Securities and foreign exchange transactions are not FDIC-insured, are not bank-guaranteed, and may lose value.





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Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wachovia Corporation | Oct 27 08 15:07 GMT |

New Home Sales Bounced Higher in September

New home sales bounced up to 464,000 units in September from a downwardly revised August figure. Still, the current pace of sales is extremely slow and may not hold up into October as the credit crunch intensified and consumers became increasingly worried about the economic outlook. Inventories made solid improvements.

New Home Sales Bounced

  • Sales bounced higher to 464,000 units off the new cycle low of 452,000 seen last month. Despite the improvement, September still marks the second slowest pace of sales in this cycle. We do not expect to see continued improvements as the credit crunch intensified anew in October. Mortgage credit remains constrained and consumers are worried about the economy.

Inventories Continued to Improve

  • Inventories continued to improve rapidly, dropping below the 400,000 level for the first time since 2004. The month-over-month decline of 26,000 units marks the largest one month decline on record. Since peaking in 2006, inventories have declined 30.5 percent. As we have long noted, inventory improvement is a key step toward market stabilization.

Wachovia Corporation
http://www.wachovia.com

Disclaimer: The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wachovia Corporation and its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wachovia Corporation or any of its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or any foreign exchange transaction, or as personalized investment advice. Securities and foreign exchange transactions are not FDIC-insured, are not bank-guaranteed, and may lose value.





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DailyFX Analysts Scour Markets For Setups After Volatile Open To The Week

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DailyFX | Oct 27 08 15:14 GMT |

It was another dramatic open to a new trading week; but this time around, gaps were replaced with a record breaking ranges that revealed sharp reversals in both directions for nearly ever pair. Is this an exhaustion move or merely a catalyst for the next extension of maturing trends? Read on to see what the DailyFX Analysts think and what pairs they are looking for set ups from.

Currency Strategist - John Kicklighter

My picks: Pending USDCHF Breakout
Expertise: Combining Money Management with Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades: 3 days - 1 week

It is difficult to find any pairs that are abiding by the normal laws of fundamentals and technicals in current market conditions. With the volatile open to the week, the congestion that was borne from the calm of last week was subsequently broken. At the same time, the massive ranges and back-and-forth price action hasn't necessarily supported the revival of already-extended trends. Looking for a sense of normalcy - and therefore an opportunity to setup for a trade that has yet to unfold - I have been monitoring USDCHF for some time. Though holding a pretty consistent rally since taking off on a bull run in July, the advance has been relatively constrained lately just when fears over a global recession and ongoing credit crisis have hit a new gear. This buffer is partially due to the fact that both the US dollar and Swiss franc are considered safe haven currencies. However, through the back and forth, we have seen that the dollar is finding greater interest in terms of liquidity and now as a carry currency. What's more, given the presence of a Fed rate decision and 3Q GDP numbers from the US docket his week, we may finally get some event risk to spark a breakout from this pair.

Technically, this pair is at a crossroads for trends. A major six-year falling trendline (beginning in September of 2002) is being tested by recent highs around 1.1750 and is further backed by the 38.2% retracement from the range of the same period up at 1.18. Shorter-term however, the momentum behind the bullish advance is apparent with a clear rising trend arising from the September 22nd swing low. With support now seen around the 1.1480/90 pivot level, our key levels are clearly defined. Optimally, a higher time frame close above or below these levels would be best to confirm a breakout; but considering the levels of volatility recently, a price target may be more realistic.

Currency Analyst - David Rodriguez

My picks: Short-term GBP/USD long
Expertise: System Trading
Average Time Frame of Trades: 2-10 weeks

After a week away from trading, I'm really trying hard to find good opportunities in currently unbelievable market conditions. I'm so unwilling to sell dollars that I think it's an ideal time to do so. If everyone is unwilling to sell dollars, it means that they must either 1. be already long or 2. will not trade through current market conditions. We see that in the Speculative Sentiment Index, which shows that traders are heavily net-short the GBP/USD, with short positions outnumbering longs by 1.5 to 1. I'm willing to take a contrarian position according to the SSI and my own unwillingness to buy dollars. I'll buy now at market (1.5448), setting a stop below previous spike-lows of 1.5265.

Currency Analyst - John Rivera

My picks: EURUSD
Expertise: Fundamentals Combined With Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 4-8 Days

I must maintain a bearish outlook for the EURUSD as troubles in the European emerging markets countries continues and German banks remain at risk for further failures. Germany and the upstart Eastern European countries have been responsible for the majority of the growth in the region before the current downturn. As they begin to falter the concerns of a deeper than previously expected recession grow. This should remain a weighing factor on the Euro and if the ECB shows signs of embarking on an extended easing policy then parity could be insight for the pair. The next level of support is 1.2132 the 50.0% Fibo level of the0.8232-1.6057.

Currency Analyst - David Song

My picks: Pending Short CHF/JPY
Expertise: Fundamentals and Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 2 - 10 Days

Fading demands for carry trades paired with increased fears of a global recession continues to favor the Japanese yen, and has pushed the CHFJPY to its lowest level since 2004. After trading within narrow range between 86.50 and 91.25, the pair broke below the stated level to hold near 80.25. The huge downturn in the pair has triggered an oversold RSI signal, which suggests that a near-term retrace could be in the works. I anticipate the pair to bounce higher over the next day or so to retest the 85.00 level, and if the pair fails to move above this level, a short CHFJPY trade will be favorable. Over the next few days, I project increased selling pressures to drag the pair lower, and we may see the swissie-yen move towards the 3/7/02 low of 75.74 by the end of the trading week.

DailyFX

Disclaimer

Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.


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Denmark Strikes $15 Billion Swap Agreement With ECB

By Tasneem Brogger

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank gave Denmark access to 12 billion euros ($15 billion) in funds as the ECB steps up efforts to help neighboring countries deal with the global financial crisis.

The currency swap facility with the Danish central bank will ``remain in place as long as needed'' and aims to ``improve liquidity in euro short-term markets,'' the Frankfurt-based ECB said in an e-mailed statement today.

The agreement will help Danish policy makers, whose sole mandate is to keep the krone pegged to the euro, draw on reserves to support their currency. Denmark is the third European country that the ECB has assisted after Hungary and Switzerland.

``I don't think this is happening because of anything specific to Denmark, it's just the contagion from the global situation,'' said Sunil Kapadia, an economist at UBS Ltd. in London. ``Banks in smaller currency areas could be more vulnerable, and that could hurt Denmark.''

The Danish central bank was forced to raise the key rate a second time this month on Oct. 24, bringing it to 5.5 percent, the highest level in eight years. The bank said the move was necessary after the krone came under pressure.

Denmark's benchmark interbank lending rate, the three-month CIBOR, today rose to an eight-year high of 6.4167 percent. That's despite a 35 billion kroner ($5.8 billion) bank rescue package passed by parliament earlier this month.

Denmark's reserves, which totaled 160.1 billion kroner ($26.7 billion) at the end of September, would rise to about 250 billion kroner including the swap facility announced today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tasneem Brogger in Copenhagen at tbrogger@bloomberg.net;



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U.S. September New Home Sales: Statistical Summary (Table)

By Andy Burt

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of the Sept. new home sales report from the Commerce Department.


===============================================================================
Sept. Aug. July June May April
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
===============================================================================
Total Sales 464,000 452,000 517,000 499,000 515,000 542,000
MOM% change 2.7% -12.6% 3.6% -3.1% -5.0% 5.7%
3 mo. average 477,667 489,333 510,333 518,667 523,333 542,333
Prev. est. n/a 460,000 520,000 500,000 515,000 542,000
Net Revision -12,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northeast 22,000 28,000 43,000 35,000 31,000 40,000
Midwest 65,000 69,000 65,000 70,000 76,000 82,000
South 269,000 267,000 283,000 279,000 292,000 294,000
West 108,000 88,000 126,000 115,000 116,000 126,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Months' supply 10.4 11.4 10.3 10.9 10.9 10.3
===============================================================================
Sept. Aug. July June May April
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
===============================================================================
Homes for sale 394,000 425,000 430,000 445,000 459,000 463,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median price $218,400 $220,400 $237,300 $234,300 $229,300 $246,400
YOY% change -9.1% -6.8% -3.6% -0.5% -6.4% 1.6%
Mean price $275,500 $264,100 $304,200 $299,400 $298,200 $314,300
YOY% change -5.7% -12.3% -0.9% -2.3% -3.7% 0.8%
===============================================================================
NOTE: All unit figures are expressed at annual rates, seasonally adjusted.


SOURCE: U.S. Commerce Department. http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

To contact the reporter on this story: Andy Burt in Washington at aburt1@bloomberg.net





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BOE May Need to Consider One-Point Cut, Davies Says

By Brian Swint

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England may need to consider lowering its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point next week as financial markets weaken, former Financial Services Authority chairman Howard Davies said.

``I would definitely be going for half a percent,'' at the next scheduled decision on Nov. 6, Davies said in an interview on BBC Radio 4 today. ``Depending on what I saw in capital markets, if I saw any nervousness, I might stick at that. If not, I might well go for 1 percent.''

The pound fell against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts today and reached the lowest since 2002 against the dollar last week as evidence mounted that the economy is mired in a recession. The Bank of England, led by Governor Mervyn King, this month lowered interest rates by a half point in joint action with central banks around the globe to stem the financial crisis.

``I would certainly vote for a cut,'' said Davies, a former deputy governor of the central bank. ``I don't think that the fall in the pound invalidates the argument.''

The bank will bring the main rate down to 3.5 percent from the current 4.5 percent by the end of the year and to 2 percent in 2009, Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight, Inc., predicted today. The bank may move by a point next week or make another emergency cut before the Nov. 6 decision, he said.

A reduction of a full percentage point, which would be the largest drop since the U.K. central bank won the power to set interest rates independently in 1997, has become ``a very real possibility,'' Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official, said in a note today.

`Psychological Warfare'

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said yesterday that central banks around the world have scope to take a decision on interest rates, in an interview with the BBC. The Times of London today said that pressure is growing on the U.K central bank to perform another emergency cut this week after the economy contracted the most since 1990 in the third quarter.

``They need very quickly now to get ahead of the curve,'' the Times cited Sushil Wadhwani, founder of Wadhwani Asset Management and a former Bank of England policy maker, as saying. ``The time has arrived to deliver positive surprises -- it is psychological warfare.''

The pound's decline to as low as $1.5279 today, close to the weakest since August 2002, is unlikely to put pressure on inflation and its drop isn't yet enough to forestall rate cuts, Davies said today.

``Clearly if sterling started to fall precipitately, and international financial markets became anxious about lending to the U.K., then that would be a problem,'' Davies said. ``I don't think we're at that point yet, but it was interesting that Mervyn King signaled it'' in a speech last week.

King suggested the pound may fall further as the economy adjusts away from its dependence on consumption and foreign investment.

``The only thing that would cause me to be hesitant about a very big cut, but which I mean 1 percent or more, would be this point about our vulnerability to external flows,'' Davies said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net.



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BOJ May Buy Shares Owned by Banks, Yamaguchi Says

By Mayumi Otsuma

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan is considering buying shares in Japanese companies owned by commercial banks, the central bank's newest board member said after the stock market plunged to a 26-year low.

``Stock prices are falling drastically and market volatility is rising, increasing the risk for financial institutions to hold shares to the point where we can't ignore it,'' Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi said in his inaugural press conference in Tokyo today. ``Regarding stock purchases, we will consider what we can do.''

Japanese companies listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange lost 108 trillion yen ($1.2 trillion) in market value this month, undermining the nation's banks, which traditionally hold large equity stakes. Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said today that he expects the central bank will consider resuming purchases of shares from banks in conjunction with the government.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 6.4 percent to the lowest since 1982 today on concern banks will need government help to restore their financial health. The gauge has lost 36 percent this month.

The Bank of Japan and the government bought about 4 trillion yen in stocks held by banks from 2002 to protect lenders' capital from being eroded by slumping equity values. The central bank started selling its stake two years ago, though it halted the sales this month as the stock market tumbled.

Rate Cut

Asked about the possibility of an interest-rate cut by the central bank, Yamaguchi said Japan's borrowing costs are already ``very low'' considering the state of the economy and prices.

Japan's benchmark interest rate is 0.5 percent, the lowest in the industrialized world. The bank will continue to set policy by examining ``upside risks'' for inflation and ``downside risks'' to the economy, he said.

The yen's ``rapid'' gains may affect trade, corporate profits and the confidence of consumers and companies and the Bank of Japan will ``carefully examine'' currency market moves when it decides policy, Yamaguchi said.

Japan's currency is trading near a 13-year high against the dollar, prompting the Group of Seven nations to issue a statement today expressing concern about its ``excessive volatility.''

The Bank of Japan will keep providing ``ample'' liquidity to money markets ``in a flexible manner,'' Yamaguchi said. The bank this month began offering lenders an unlimited amount of dollars, expanded the range of Japanese government bonds it accepts from them, and increased the frequency and size of commercial paper purchases to improve companies' access to funds.

Yamaguchi said the central bank is studying further ways to help companies obtain financing, while adding that the bank doesn't plan to buy commercial paper without repurchase agreements. Companies rely on commercial paper for daily business activities such as paying staff and rent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at motsuma@bloomberg.net





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Farm-Credit Squeeze May Cut Crops, Spur Food Crisis

By Carlos Caminada, Shruti Singh and Jeff Wilson

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The credit crunch is compounding a profit squeeze for farmers that may curb global harvests and worsen a food crisis for developing countries.

Global production of wheat, the most-consumed food crop, may drop 4.4 percent next year, said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co. in Chicago, who has advised farmers, food companies and investors for 29 years. Harvests of corn and soybeans also are likely to fall, Basse said.

Smaller crops risk reviving prices of farm commodities that sank from records in 2008 after a six-year rally that spurred inflation and sparked riots from Asia to the Caribbean. Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show wheat will jump 16 percent by the end of 2009, corn will rise 15 percent and soybeans will gain 3 percent.

``The credit situation is worrying even the biggest and best farmers,'' said Brian Willot, 36, a former University of Missouri commodity analyst who now grows soybeans on 2,000 acres in Brazil. ``For the financially weak, credit has dried up completely. For the strong, credit has been delayed and interest rates are higher.''

The number of hungry around the world is at risk of increasing as the financial crisis cuts investment in agriculture and crops, said Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. The total increased by 75 million last year to 923 million, the UN estimates.

Brazil Squeeze

``The net effect of the financial crisis may end up being lower planting, lower production,'' Abbassian said. ``More people will go hungry.''

In Brazil, the world's third-biggest exporter of corn after the U.S. and Argentina, production may fall more than 20 percent because farmers can't get loans to buy fertilizer, said Enori Barbieri, a National Corn Producers Association vice president. The nation's coffee harvest, the world's largest, may drop 25 percent for the same reason, said Lucio Araujo, commercial director at farmer cooperative Cooxupe, located in Guaxupe.

Borrowing costs increased and farmers struggled to get loans after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression made banks and grain processors, including Cargill Inc. and Archer Daniels Midland Co., less tolerant of risk.

Minnetonka, Minnesota-based Cargill and Decatur, Illinois- based Archer Daniels, the world's largest grain processors, are among the crop buyers to halt financing for growers in Brazil, said Eduardo Dahe, who represents the companies as president of the National Association of Fertilizer Distributors.

Lending `Stopped'

Processors usually cover half the financing needs of farmers by accepting part of the future crop as payment. ``No one is doing it,'' Dahe said. ``It's stopped.''

In Russia, loan rates for farmers have jumped by half in some cases to more than 20 percent in the past few months, Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, said in an interview earlier this month.

While the credit squeeze gripping emerging markets has yet to hurt the U.S., the risk remains, Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer said Oct. 1.

``We certainly could see tight credit having an effect on agricultural production,'' Schafer said in Washington. ``The costs of farming operations today are huge, and that backs up to the banks that have balance sheets that are tight, it backs up to elevators that have credit stretched out.''

Farm Incomes

To be sure, farmers in the U.S., the world's largest grain exporter, may have enough cash to avoid production cuts through next year because of this year's record profits.

Net farm income will rise 10 percent this year to $95.7 billion, the U.S. Agriculture Department estimated Aug. 28. While farm debt jumped 7.7 percent last year to $211 billion, the total is 9.6 percent of assets, a ratio that the government forecast on Aug. 28 will drop to 8.9 percent this year, the lowest level since at least 1960, the earliest data available.

``I don't see the crisis'' for U.S. farmers, said Corny Gallagher, who helps oversee $20 billion in global agribusiness and food-product loans for Bank of America Corp. in Sacramento, California. ``While commodity prices are down from their peak, they are still relatively high.''

Warning signs are appearing.

`Deteriorating' Conditions

Global inventories of corn, wheat and soybeans before the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere next year will be the second- lowest since 1974, enough for 67 days of consumption, compared with 144 days of supplies in 1986, U.S. data show.

``Stockpiles are going to be extremely tight,'' said AgResource's Basse. ``The world cannot afford any dislocation in production next year, or there will be a real shortage.''

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said Aug. 15 that credit conditions in the second quarter, the most recent data available, ``showed signs of deterioration'' in the seven-state region that includes Kansas, the biggest U.S. producer of winter wheat. Loan-repayment rates fell for the first time since 2006 as wheat slid 7.6 percent in the quarter. Wheat lost another 41 percent since then.

``This year is going to be the best year ever and now we are looking at the potential to give it all back in 2009 if prices don't rise above the expected cost of production,'' said Mark Kraft, 49, who grows corn and soybeans in Normal, Illinois. ``You have to hope that fertilizer, seed and land rents come down and the price of corn improves.''

Lower Prices, Higher Costs

Wheat fell to $5.1625 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Oct. 24, touching a 16-month low of $4.965. On Feb. 27, it reached a record $13.495. Corn fell 7.5 percent last week and touched a one-year low of $3.64 a bushel today, compared with a peak of $7.9925 on June 27. Soybeans fell 4.4 percent last week to $8.67 a bushel and are down 47 percent from a record $16.3675 on July 3. Rough-rice futures are down 41 percent to $14.685 per 100 pounds from $25.07, the highest ever, on April 24.

One 80,000-kernel bag of Monsanto Co. corn seed, enough for about 2.5 acres, rose 45 percent this year to $320, the same amount Midwest tenant farmers paid to rent an acre of land, Kraft said. A gallon of diesel for tractors averaged $4.47 in the third quarter, up 51 percent from a year earlier, according to AAA, the largest U.S. motorist organization.

The value of the collateral farmers use to secure loans -- crops and land -- is diminishing. Lenders are demanding more equity for farm loans used to run operations or acquire land and equipment.

``We need two to three times the amount of money we used to need with the same collateral,'' said Bo Stone, 37, a seventh- generation farmer in Rowland, North Carolina. ``It means we have way more risk than we've ever had. This is a time where one bad crop year, with the amount of money and input tied up, could potentially cost you your equipment, land and livelihood.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Carlos Caminada in Sao Paulo at at ccaminada1@bloomberg.net; Shruti Date Singh in Chicago at ssingh28@bloomberg.net; Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net.





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U.S. New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise as Prices Drop

By Bob Willis
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new houses in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in September from a 17-year low, propelled by a drop in prices ahead of the latest turmoil in financial markets.

Purchases increased 2.7 percent to an annual rate of 464,000 from 452,000 the prior month that was less than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median sales price decreased to a four-year low.

The drumbeat of builder bankruptcies since the middle of last year and frozen credit markets signal a collapse in mortgage lending that may extend the housing recession into a fourth year. Federal Reserve policy makers, meeting this week, are projected to cut interest rates again in a bid to alleviate the damage from the collapse in financial markets.

``Builders are seeing the light,'' Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``They are cutting prices more aggressively. They're very nervous about all the foreclosures.''

Economists had forecast new home sales would drop to a 450,000 annual pace from an originally reported 460,000 rate the prior month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 59 economists. Forecasts ranged from 400,000 to 501,000.

The median price of a new home decreased 9.1 percent from a year earlier to $218,400, the lowest since September 2004.

Sales were down 33 percent from September 2007, the Commerce report showed.

On a positive note, builders cut inventories at a record pace. The number of homes for sale fell to a seasonally adjusted 394,000, the fewest since June 2004. The 7.3 percent decline from August was the biggest since record keeping began in 1963.

Supply Falls

The supply of homes at the current sales rate fell to 10.4 months' worth from 11.4 months. A five to six months' supply is often cited as signaling a stable market.

The increase in purchases was paced by a 23 percent surge in the West. Sales dropped 21 percent in the Northeast and 5.8 percent in the Midwest.

Home resales rose a more-than-forecast 5.5 percent in September to a 5.18 million pace, the highest level in a year, the National Association of Realtors said on Oct. 24. The gain was driven by sales of distressed properties, which comprised up to 40 percent of the total, the Realtors group said. The median price fell 9 percent.

Sales of previously owned homes are compiled from closings and reflect contracts signed weeks or months earlier. New-home purchases, while accounting for only about 10 percent of total sales, are considered a timelier indicator because they are based on contract signings.

Government Efforts

The biggest housing recession in a generation was showing signs of nearing a bottom in sales when financial markets began to implode in September, leading to the government takeover of mortgage finance companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. A $700 billion rescue plan and coordinated rate cuts by central banks around the world followed.

Stricter lending regulations and tumbling home prices make it harder for Americans to tap home equity for extra cash. Consumer spending in the third quarter probably fell for the first time since 1991, and may have tipped the economy into a recession, according to economists surveyed earlier this month.

Home prices have fallen by about a fifth from their highs in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index of 20 major cities. Falling prices mean more Americans can't refinance their mortgages, prompting foreclosures to surge to record levels in the third quarter. That, in turn, may cause prices to fall further.

`Vicious' Circle

``This vicious feedback loop is still in play,'' David Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Homebuilders, said in an interview on Oct. 17. That, he said, is ``putting a nail'' in the coffin of the new-home market. New-home sales have declined 67 percent from their peaks in July 2005.

Work began last month on the fewest single-family homes in 26 years, the Commerce Department reported on Oct. 17. The number of building permits issued also fell, a sign that declines in construction will continue to hurt the economy.

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders slid in October to the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1985, figures from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo showed earlier this month.

At least a dozen homebuilders have sought bankruptcy protection since June 2007, including billionaire Carl Icahn's WCI Communities Inc.

Pulte Homes Inc., the third-largest U.S. builder, last week reported a net loss of $280.4 million for the third quarter, more than double what analysts had projected.

``The homebuilding operating environment significantly worsened during the third quarter of 2008,'' Richard Dugas, the chief executive officer of Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based Pulte said in a statement. ``The industry continues to be plagued by tighter mortgage availability, a growing number of foreclosures, and a historically high supply of unsold homes.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net



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Trichet Says ECB May Reduce Rates Again Next Week

By Ben Sills and Gabi Thesing

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the bank may cut interest rates again at its next policy meeting on Nov. 6 as the financial market crisis damps inflation pressures.

``I consider it possible that the Governing Council would decrease interest rates once again at its next meeting,'' Trichet said in a speech in Madrid today. ``It is not a certainty, it is a possibility.''

Stock markets tumbled around the world today, extending the worst monthly plunge in 70 years, on concern the financial crisis will develop into a prolonged economic downturn. Europe's economy is on the brink of a recession, with the region's manufacturing and service industries contracting at a record pace in October and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index down 47 percent this year.

``Given the market stress we're seeing at the moment, it makes sense to frontload the rate cuts,'' said Guillaume Menuet, a senior European economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London.He expects the ECB to cut to 2.75 percent by June.

The ECB, which raised interest rates as recently as July, joined a globally coordinated rate cut on Oct. 8, reducing its benchmark by half a point to 3.75 percent. The price of oil, the main inflation driver, has more than halved from its peak of $147.11 a barrel in July.

Improving Inflation Outlook

``If you look at where commodity prices are going, then of course the inflation outlook is improving quite rapidly, so this is very consistent with their inflation target, which will clearly be met in 2010,'' Menuet said.

Trichet said next week's decision whether to cut rates again hinges on the assumption ``that the new information that is progressively coming available since then is likely to indicate a further alleviation of the upside risks to price stability in the medium term and a confirmation of a more solid anchoring of inflation expectations in line with our definition of price stability.''

Investors expect the ECB to cut the benchmark rate by at least another half point when policy makers meet in Frankfurt on Nov. 6, Eonia forward contracts show.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Sills in Madrid at bsills@bloomberg.net; Gabi Thesing in Frankfurt at gthesing@bloomberg.net





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G-7 Fails to Halt Yen's Gain, Says Moves `Excessive'

By Jason Clenfield and Keiko Ujikane

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Group of Seven industrial nations failed to halt the yen's advance to near a 13-year high against the dollar after expressing concern about the currency's ``excessive volatility.''

The G-7 made an unscheduled statement after a request from Japan, Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said in Tokyo today, adding that his government was ready to act if needed. The G-7 fell short of pledging concerted action to halt the yen's gain.

``Issuing such a statement is a sign of failure to intervene,'' said Eisuke Sakakibara, a professor at Tokyo's Waseda University who was the Finance Ministry's top currency official from 1997 to 1999. ``The Japanese government may have consulted with their counterparts in the EU and the U.S. and they couldn't persuade them to intervene.''

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 6.4 percent today to a 26-year low as the soaring yen eroded earnings of exporters such as Canon Inc. The currency has gained as the risk of a global recession and a slump in global stock markets prompted investors to sell assets bought by borrowing in Japan, where interest rates are the lowest among industrial nations.

``We reaffirm our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system,'' the G-7 statement said. ``We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We continue to monitor markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate.''

`Brutal' Trading

The yen rose to 93.24 per dollar as of 9:50 a.m. in New York from 94.32 late Oct. 24. Japan's currency has climbed 14 percent against the dollar this month and 29 percent versus the euro.

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said the G-7 doesn't plan to intervene to sell the yen after warning today against the currency's ``excessive volatility.''

``The yen has over the past 48 hours seen brutal trading that reflects a great volatility that's linked to current market moves,'' Lagarde said in an interview today with Bloomberg News in Montpellier, France. ``We wished to support this possible intervention of Japanese authorities knowing this would be about a purely Japanese intervention.''

Asked specifically if the G-7 would intervene to sell the yen, after it rose to its highest in almost 13 years against the dollar, Lagarde said ``no.''

More Activism

Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London, said the statement was the first he could recall on currencies outside of regular G-7 talks. ``This only serves to highlight the importance of the warning both as a statement of immediate intent and as a broader indication of the longer-term shift in thinking within the G-7.''

``It seems one more piece of evidence than the pendulum is swinging back towards a pre-1996 world where the G-7 took a more activist stance in the currency markets,'' Mellor said.

Japan indicated it may take action to halt the yen's advance, when Vice Finance Minister Kazuyuki Sugimoto said the government was prepared to act ``quickly'' in the currency market.

``If the G-7 didn't want Japan to intervene they wouldn't have signed a joint statement,'' said Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign exchange strategy for Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan currency trader. ``They were saying: `If Japan needs to intervene for its own sake, we won't get in the way.'''

Market Volatility

Volatility on major currencies touched 24.27 today, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. index, the highest since its inception in 1992.

Governments worldwide are taking action to limit big swings in currencies and stocks, and to buoy economic growth.

Australia's central bank bought the country's currency for a second day to arrest a 35 percent drop in the past three months and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority added cash to the banking system to prevent the city's dollar from strengthening beyond its fixed exchange rate. In South Korea, the central bank slashed interest rates by a record 75 basis points to 4.25 percent at an emergency board meeting.

Belgium said today it would buy 3.5 billion euros ($4.4 billion) of securities in KBC Group NV to help strengthen the financial position of the country's biggest bank.

In Japan, the yen's gain is already taking its toll on company profits. Canon, Japan's largest office-equipment maker, reported today third-quarter profit fell 21 percent as the surging currency undermined overseas revenue.

Common Message

A study published this month by Marcel Fratzscher, an economist at the European Central Bank, of reaction to the group's statements since 1975 found that it is most successful when viewed as credible by investors and its message is supported by every official and repeated in the weeks after the meeting.

The statements also wield power if the governments and central banks back up their words with intervention in the markets, the study said.

Japan hasn't sold its currency since March 2004 when the yen was trading at 103.42 against the dollar. The Bank of Japan, acting on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, sold 14.8 trillion yen ($157 billion) in the first three months of 2004, after record sales of 20.4 trillion yen in 2003.

Separately Japan's Prime Minister Taro Aso said he'd draft measures to help counter the financial crisis.

The proposals Japan's government is considering include a resumption of state purchases of shares owned by Japan's banks, said Hakuo Yanagisawa, a ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker charged with dealing with the financial crisis. The decline in the stock market has eroded the value of shares banks hold as part of their capital.

Japanese banks tumbled on the Tokyo Stock Exchange today after media reports said they may seek to raise extra capital to offset unrealized losses on shareholdings. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. sank more than 10 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.netJason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net





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Lukoil Is Interested in Exploring Russian Shelf, Interfax Says

By Stephen Bierman

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Lukoil, Russia's largest independent oil producer, would be interested in developing the Russian offshore shelf as part of a group led by a state-owned company, Interfax reported.

Lukoil would be prepared to increase investment in searching for oil if it's allowed to participate in Russian exploration projects and licensing auctions, the news service said, citing Chief Executive Officer Vagit Alekperov.

The state has hindered spending, especially on the offshore shelf, by introducing laws governing natural-resources investment, Alekperov said today at a conference in Moscow, according to Interfax.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Bierman in Moscow at sbierman1@bloomberg.net





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Goldman Buys Stake in U.S. Carbon-Offset Company Blue Source

By Nicholas Larkin

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bought a stake in carbon-offset provider Blue Source LLC as it expands in the U.S. emissions market.

Goldman will market verified emissions reductions credits from Salt Lake City-based Blue Source's projects, the companies said today in a statement distributed by Business Wire. The size and value of the equity stake weren't included.

Emissions credits from projects that reduce global warming gases are voluntarily traded in the U.S. by companies and others seeking to enhance their environmental image. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, the first mandatory emissions trading system in the world's biggest economy, is slated to start Jan. 1 next year.

``Interest in the pre-compliance carbon market in the U.S. is growing rapidly and we are excited to be able to offer our clients immediate access to a diverse selection of emission reductions to manage their carbon risk,'' Leslie Biddle, Goldman's head of commodity sales, said in the statement.

Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC, the hedge-fund firm run by Daniel Och, in August bought 10 percent of Blue Source for an undisclosed fee.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net





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Petrobras' Costa Says Oil Prices to Rise Again, Valor Reports

By Jeb Blount

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Oil prices will rebound because of scarce supply, said Paulo Roberto Costa, head of refining at Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, the Valor Economico newspaper reported.

Declining output from existing fields, means new discoveries of 8.5 million barrels a day are needed to meet demand, Valor quoted Costa as saying.

Delays in bringing new fields online would hamper the ability to meet global oil consumption, even if it remains at the current level of about 85 million barrels a day, Costa was quoted as saying.

Oil futures traded in New York have plunged by more than half since touching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11. The December contract fell as low as $61.30 in early trading today.

Oil at $60 makes it uneconomical to explore for oil in Canadian tar sands and in Venezuela's Orinoco basin, Costa said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeb Blount in Rio de Janeiro at jblount@bloomberg.net



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Natural Gas Falls on Signs of Ample Supply, Faltering Economy

By Mario Parker

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures in New York fell on signs supply will be ample for the winter heating season and on concern the weaker economy will slow demand.

Stockpiles of natural gas now exceed the five-year average of 3.327 trillion cubic feet on hand at the start of the heating season in early November by 93 billion cubic feet.

``We're basically well-supplied and there are no disruptions on the horizon,'' said Michael Rose, a director of trading at Angus Jackson Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. ``There's also some liquidation going on across all commodities.''

Natural gas for November delivery fell 6.4 cents, or 1 percent, to $6.175 per million British thermal units at 9:46 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $5.99, the lowest since Sept. 24, 2007, when they traded at $5.916.

``You have some liquidation on margin calls,'' Rose said. ``People are trying to free up equity.''

Stockpiles advanced 70 billion cubic feet in the week ended Oct. 17 to 3.347 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said Oct. 23. Sufficient supplies in storage help utilities and large industrial consumers meet demand during the cold-weather season, when usage outstrips production.

About 40 percent of natural gas demand in the U.S. originates with commercial and industrial consumers, who tend to cut back in times of economic weakness.

``You have a confluence of three events,'' said Scott Hanold, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Minneapolis. ``The economic outlook continues to not look pretty, there are forecasts for warm weather and crude oil is down.''

Warmer Weather

Weather across most of the U.S. will be warmer than normal starting Nov. 1, according to the 10-day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland. Demand for the heating and industrial fuel peaks during the cold weather months.

Crude oil futures in New York declined $1.17, or 1.8 percent, to $62.98 a barrel. Futures touched $61.30, the lowest since May 9, 2007. Prices are down 32 percent from a year ago.

Global oil demand may decline for the first time in 15 years in 2008 and stagnate next year, the Centre for Global Energy Studies said Oct. 20. OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Department all cut their forecasts for growth earlier this month.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mario Parker in Chicago at mparker22@bloomberg.net;





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Wintershall, EDF Snap Up North Sea Oil and Gas Assets

By Marianne Stigset and Nidaa Bakhsh

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Wintershall Holding AG, BASF SE's oil and gas unit, and Electricite de France SA announced purchases of North Sea oil and gas assets amid plunging crude prices and tumbling stocks.

Wintershall offered to buy Norway's Revus Energy ASA for 110 kroner a share, or 5 billion kroner ($740 million), more than double its last closing price, the companies said today. EDF, the world's biggest utility, agreed to buy natural-gas fields in the U.K. North Sea from ATP Oil & Gas Corp. for 265 million pounds ($410 million), gaining access to 3 billion cubic meters of gas, the Paris-based company said.

``Revus has perhaps been the best exploration and production company on the Oslo stock exchange, which is what this offer shows,'' said Arnstein Wigestrand, an analyst at SEB Enskilda who rates the stock a ``buy.'' ``This isn't necessarily the starting shot for such acquisitions, but there are people looking at some of these companies on the Oslo exchange.''

Energy companies are stepping up efforts to acquire drilling and production rights amid a slump in world equity markets, which left assets trading at their cheapest levels in more than five years. The Dow Jones Europe Stoxx Oil & Gas Index has fallen 45 percent since the start of this year. Oil is heading for a 41 percent drop this month, the steepest since New York futures started trading in 1988.

Strongly Improves

``Revus strongly improves Wintershall's asset base in the North Sea, especially in Norway,'' Wintershall Chairman Reinier Zwitserloot said in a statement today. ``The activities of Revus lie in a politically and economically stable environment and geographically balance Wintershall's portfolio.''

Revus shares surged as much as 55.1 kroner, more than doubling, to 100 kroner, and traded at 97.25 kroner as of 2:29 p.m. in Oslo. Revus' board unanimously recommended the offer.

Trading below the offer price ``may be due to a certain degree of uncertainty remaining until the offer has been presented in its final form,'' Wigestrand said.

Output Cut

The offer is conditional upon the completion of due diligence on Revus and will be submitted to the Oslo stock exchange for approval before being presented to Revus' shareholders the week of Nov. 10, Wintershall said. It will need the approval of the Norwegian authorities, including the competition authorities, it said.

Revus, which operates on the Norwegian and UK continental shelves, cut its annual output guidance by 6 percent on Oct. 24 after third-quarter production didn't meet its expectations. The company sees total output for this year of 6,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from a previous guidance of 6,400 barrels a day. Revus third-quarter production came to 6,039 barrels a day, 14 percent below its earlier forecast.

``This is an attractive offer for our shareholders,'' Revus Chief Executive Officer Harald Vaboe said in a statement. ``While I am extremely proud of the value we have created at Revus Energy, we are excited about our future as part of a larger company.''

EDF's purchase of 80 percent of Houston-based ATP's U.K. unit includes the right to buy the remainder next year and transfer the assets to its 49 percent-owned Italian subsidiary Edison SpA, the French utility said today in a statement.

North Sea

The deal gives EDF a 68 percent share of the Tors zone, which includes two gas fields that came into production in March 2006 and February 2007, and an 80 percent stake in the Wenlock field, which came into production in December 2007, EDF said. EDF and ATP's boards have approved the purchase, which is subject to approval by ``relevant British authorities.''

EDF dropped as much as 3.56 euros, or 8.6 percent, to 38.575 euros, the biggest intraday decline since Oct. 10. The stock traded at 38.575 euros as of 2:31 p.m. Paris time, valuing the Paris-based company at 70.5 billion euros.

Earlier this month, GDF Suez SA, the world's second-biggest utility, became the largest oil and gas operator in the Dutch North Sea after it paid 1.08 billion euros for offshore fields and pipelines held by Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij BV.

To contact the reporter on this story: Marianne Stigset in Oslo at mstigset@bloomberg.netNidaa Bakhsh in London at nbakhsh@bloomberg.net



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Shell, BP May Post Higher Profit; Plans Under Review

By Eduard Gismatullin and Fred Pals

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, Europe's largest oil companies, may say third-quarter earnings rose from a year earlier while falling short of record second- quarter profits, after crude fell 53 percent from its July peak.

The companies may also scale back investment plans when they report earnings this week, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

Declining demand for fuel in the U.S., the world's largest importer of crude, prompted a 28 percent oil-price plunge in the third quarter, the biggest decline since 1991. The global credit crisis and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' agreement to cut production may slow the economy further.

``In the first half of this year, generally oil company earnings were exceptionally strong,'' said Bob Parker, who helps oversee $600 billion as vice chairman of Credit Suisse Asset Management in London, in an Oct. 23 interview. ``You will see oil company earnings come off quite sharply'' in the second half, and for earnings growth, oil will be ``one of the worst sectors, purely because of the oil price decline.''

Shell, based in The Hague, may say income excluding one- time items and gains or losses from inventories rose to $7.22 billion last quarter, from $6.13 billion in the same period a year ago, based on the median estimate of 10 analysts compiled by Bloomberg. Shell reported $11.56 billion second-quarter net income on July 31.

U.S. Earnings

London-based BP's profit, calculated by the same measure, probably jumped to $6.82 billion from $4.21 billion, the survey showed. BP posted record net income of $9.47 billion on July 29.

Adam Newton, a Shell spokesman in The Hague, and Robert Wine, a London-based BP spokesman, declined to comment. Shell fell 70 pence, or 4.8 percent, to 1,402 pence in London trading as of 10:17 a.m. local time, while BP declined 26 pence, or 5.9 percent, to 414 pence.

Shell and BP will report after ConocoPhillips, the third- largest U.S. oil company, which on Oct. 22 said third-quarter net income climbed 41 percent to $5.19 billion after gains in energy prices made up for lower production.

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. may post record profits when they report on Oct. 30 and the following day, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Hurricane Impact

Both Shell and BP suffered from lower output in the Gulf of Mexico because of Hurricanes Ike and Gustav, which swept through the region in August and September. Shell's gross production fell to a low of about 32,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, down from peak output of about 500,000 barrels. BP halted a 475,000-barrel-a day refinery for about three weeks on Sept. 11 because of hurricane Ike.

Shell shares fell 22 percent and BP dropped 20 percent in the third quarter, less than the 24 percent plunge of the 40- member Dow Jones Europe Stoxx Oil & Gas Index. Equity prices fell because of the lower price and financial institutions' credit-related losses and writedowns, which topped $650 billion in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Companies ``will be cautioning on future profits,'' Alan Beaney, head of investments at Principal Investment Management in Sevenoaks, England, which manages $2 billion, said Oct. 22. They can't ``be ultra-positive in the current environment.''

Spending Plans

A decade ago oil companies cut investments after the crude price fell as low as $10.72 a barrel on Dec. 10, 1998. That led to restrained supply capacity, which boosted prices for oil to a record $147.27 on July 11 this year because of higher energy demand, driven by economic expansion in China and India.

``One of the most important things is what the majors say about capital expenditure plans,'' Andy Lynch, who oversees $2.9 billion at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in London, said in an Oct. 22 interview. ``With a bit of luck, they'll be more pragmatic about it this time'' and ``will keep on spending on projects'' to ensure oil supply in the future when energy demand growth accelerates, he said.

Companies have boosted spending in recent years as they have struggled to find new resources to replace the oil and natural gas they sell, as governments restrict access to fields and demand a greater share of profit. Oil producers spent $309 billion on exploration and development last year, a 20 percent increase from 2006, according to a study released last month by IHS Herold Inc. and Harrison Lovegrove & Co.

Oil Sands

Shell, BP and other producers may slash investment in hard- to-exploit fields, such as oil sands in Canada, which are costly and need higher oil prices to make them economically viable, Beaney and Parker said. Companies may also cut spending on alternative energy projects to focus on delivering hydrocarbon fuels to the markets.

``Investment in alternative energy becomes less attractive'' at current oil prices, Credit Suisse's Parker said. ``The breakeven for tar sands in Canada is around $60 to $65 a barrel,'' making profitability ``very marginal, whereas just four, five months ago it looked very attractive indeed.''

BP pledged in February to boost output 13 percent in the next five years to 4.3 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. The company is budgeting an average oil price of $60 a barrel to keep production above 4 million barrels a day through 2020.

BP will report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 28, followed by Shell on Oct. 30.

To contact the reporters on this story: Eduard Gismatullin in London at egismatullin@bloomberg.net; Fred Pals in Amsterdam at fpals@bloomberg.net



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FPL Group 3rd-Quarter Profit Misses Analyst Estimates

By Edward Klump

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- FPL Group Inc., the largest U.S. producer of wind power, said third-quarter profit, excluding a gain related to contracts used to lock in commodity prices, missed analysts' estimates.

Excluding such items as a $285 million gain related to hedging, FPL earned $1.25 a share, 10 cents below the average of 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company cut planned 2009 spending to $5.3 billion from $7 billion. FPL said it will build about 1,100 megawatts at its competitive-power unit next year, down from a possible 1,500 megawatts.

Net income climbed to $774 million, or $1.92 a share, from $533 million, or $1.33, a year earlier, Juno Beach, Florida- based FPL said today in a statement. Revenue rose 18 percent to $5.39 billion.

``The quarter looks a little lighter than expected,'' said Barry Abramson, who helps manage $25.6 billion in assets, including about 1 million FPL shares, at Gamco Investors Inc. in Rye, New York. He said it's a ``surprise'' to see a reduction in new wind capacity.

FPL fell $1.89, or 4.4 percent, to $41.31 at 9:55 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

FPL owns Florida's largest electric utility and has expanded by purchasing nuclear reactors and building wind farms outside of its home state. The company completed its $924 million purchase of the Point Beach nuclear plant in Wisconsin last year. FPL also plans new solar capacity in Florida and California as it continues to build more wind capacity.

Profit from competitive electricity sales, excluding one- time items, rose 19 percent to $215 million in the quarter from a year earlier.

Florida Economy

FPL's Florida Power & Light utility, which provides electricity to about 4.5 million homes and businesses, has been dealing with economic weakness in the state. The unit's net income fell 3.7 percent to $314 million as retail sales of power dropped 4.3 percent.

FPL Chief Executive Officer Lewis Hay III said in the statement that ``we will be temporarily deferring a modest amount of our growth capital expenditures at both businesses, and we have plans in place for more deferrals if conditions deteriorate.'' The company remains ``optimistic about our long- term growth prospects,'' Hay said.

The company said on a conference call today that its utility customer count is at its lowest since July 2007, and it's seeing more inactive, low-usage customers in Florida.

2008 Outlook

FPL's nuclear reactors provide a cost advantage over some other fuel types. U.S. nuclear plants produced electricity in the third quarter for as little as $18 per megawatt-hour, 70 percent less than the cost for the most efficient plants fueled by natural gas, according to Jeremy Sussman, an analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder in New York.

FPL said its 2008 adjusted earnings should be at the lower end of its per-share forecast of $3.83 to $3.93. Abramson said FPL's outlook in Florida should be good in the long run.

``There is a slowdown, but I would say it's just temporary,'' Abramson said. ``It's too early to say that there's been a permanent change in the behavior of Americans because, you know, we've had like this 50-year trend of people moving to warmer places, especially when they retire.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Edward Klump in Houston at eklump@bloomberg.net.





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