Economic Calendar

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Comeback of the Yen

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Crown Forex | Oct 21 08 14:51 GMT |

The Forex markets witnessed significant movements after the beginning of the US session after quite a calm trading day. As the session began, the dollar maintained some of its gains recorded yesterday as Mr. Bernanke was revealing the idea of a new bailout plan. Gains were held onto for most of the day today but again as the US markets opened unwinding of carry trades slowly took place resulting in the Yen to incline against majors.

We see the 15 nation currency retreating against the Yen as investors lose their risk appetite and confidence in higher yielding assets as they believe that the financial market turmoil will continue. As for the EUR/USD pair, we see it has fallen significantly from the 1.3370 level which is the 200 day moving average on the weekly chart to currently trade around the support level at 1.3150. The pair recorded a high of 1.3352 and a low of 1.3154.

The Sterling Pound was able to close below the 1.7340 level for two consecutive weeks which provided the pair with enough bearish momentum to extend its gains to as low as 1.6790 which is the downside target on the medium term. Today, the royal currency is retesting the 1.7000 level which could perhaps open the way to the previously mentioned target. The pair was able to record a high of 1.7196 and a low 1.6959 so far.

The Japanese Yen is finding a lot of support as investors are unwinding. The USD/JPY pair is currently facing a minor support at 100.90 which is what halted further downside movements but the general trend for trading for today remains to the downside. The pair recorded a high of 102.14 and a low of 100.70.

Crown Forex

disclaimer:The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk.





Read more...

Will the Fed Follow in Canada's Footsteps?

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by GFT | Oct 21 08 14:00 GMT |

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp to 2.25%. This move was smaller than the market expected but still represents 75bp of easing since the beginning of the month.

With the Federal Reserve set to reduce interest rates next week, Canada's explanation for the smaller could shed some light on what the Fed may be thinking.

According to the BoC statement, Canada opted for only a 25bp rate cut for 3 reasons:

1. They have already cut interest rates aggressively this month

2. Even though they believe further easing will be necessary, they want to save their ammunition for the coming months when times will get tough

3. The recent weakness of the Canadian dollar has offset the drop in commodity prices and softer global demand

Going into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on October 29, the market has priced in a 68 percent change of a 50bp rate cut and a 32 percent chance of a 25bp cut. However like Canada, the Fed has already cut interest rates aggressively this month and it may serve them well to be conservative with monetary easing now to leave themselves room for further easing later. With the massive amount of liquidity and fiscal stimulus that has already been announced, it may not be necessary for the Fed to go all in right now. The US economy will continue to weaken and more rate cuts beyond the move next week will be necessary.

How does Canada differ from the US?

If you caught my report on GFT Forex on Monday, I actually laid out the reasons why Canada could cut by 25bp instead of 50bp. The main reason was the improvement in Canadian economic data. The latest reports from the labor market and the manufacturing sector (IVEY PMI) was strong, reducing the BoC's urgency to show all of their cards.

The US economy on the other hand is in worse shape. Nearly all economic data from the manufacturing sector to the labor market confirms the weakness of the US economy. Therefore from an economic standpoint, the Fed is dealing with a deeper slowdown than Canada. A 50bp rate cut is still possible if they choose to be proactive.

Kathy Lien
http://www.gftforex.com

DISCLAIMER: GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment. In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS Licence 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. © 2008 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved.



Read more...

European shares extend losses as U.S. futures fall

LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - European shares extended losses in afternoon trade on Tuesday, mirroring a sell-off in U.S. stock futures that was prompted by renewed fears of recession fears and a fall in commodity shares.

At 1324 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 0.7 percent at 921.55 points after having fallen by as much as 1.1 percent to session lows.

S&P 500 futures SPc1 fell 2.3 percent, Dow Jones industrial average futures DJc1 declined 2.1 percent and Nasdaq 100 NDc1 futures slipped 2.6 percent.

Commodity shares fell with a drop in crude and metal prices. BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 2.7 percent, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSb.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) eased 0.7 percent, Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) lost 5 percent and BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 1.3 percent.

But banks rose, with BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rising 6.9 percent and Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) advancing 12 percent. (Reporting by Atul Prakash)





Read more...

US STOCKS-Wall Street cuts losses on credit market easing

NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks cut losses and the Dow briefly turned positive on Tuesday, pulled higher by gains in diversified manufacturer 3M (MMM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and more signs of thawing in the seized up credit markets.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was off 5.73 points, or 0.06 percent, to 9,259.70. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX dipped 2.50 points, or 0.25 percent, to 982.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC slipped 43 points, or 0.31 percent, to 1,764.60.

The main indexes were down more than 1 percent soon after the opening.

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Kenneth Barry)





Read more...

OECD Gini Coefficient Trends Show Increasing Inequality (Table)

By Mark Evans

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of trends in the Gini coefficients of income inequality across OECD countries from the OECD in Paris:


================================================================================
Mid-2000s 2000 Mid-1990s 1990 Mid-1980s Mid-1970s
================================================================================
OECD-24 0.313 n/a 0.310 n/a 0.293 n/a
OECD-22 0.300 n/a 0.293 n/a 0.279 n/a
Mexico 0.474 0.507 0.519 n/a 0.452 n/a
Turkey 0.430 n/a 0.490 n/a 0.434 n/a
Portugal 0.385 0.385 0.359 0.329 0.329 0.354
United States 0.381 0.357 0.361 0.349 0.338 0.316
Poland 0.372 0.316 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Italy 0.352 0.343 0.348 0.297 0.309 n/a
New Zealand 0.335 0.339 0.335 0.318 0.271 n/a
United Kingdom 0.335 0.370 0.354 0.373 0.325 0.282
Ireland 0.328 0.304 0.324 n/a 0.331 n/a
Greece 0.321 0.345 0.336 n/a 0.336 0.413
================================================================================
Mid-2000s 2000 Mid-1990s 1990 Mid-1980s Mid-1970s
================================================================================
Japan 0.321 0.337 0.323 n/a 0.304 n/a
Spain 0.319 0.342 0.343 0.337 0.371 n/a
Canada 0.317 0.301 0.283 n/a 0.287 0.295
Korea 0.312 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Australia 0.301 0.317 0.309 n/a n/a n/a
Germany 0.298 0.270 0.272 0.258 0.257 n/a
Hungary 0.291 0.293 0.294 0.273 0.273 n/a
Iceland 0.280 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Norway 0.276 0.261 0.256 n/a 0.234 n/a
Switzerland 0.276 0.279 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Netherlands 0.271 0.278 0.282 0.278 0.259 0.251
Belgium 0.271 0.289 0.287 n/a 0.274 n/a
France 0.270 0.270 0.270 0.290 0.300 n/a
Finland 0.269 0.261 0.228 n/a 0.207 0.235
Czech Republic 0.268 0.260 0.257 0.232 0.232 n/a
Slovakia 0.268 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Austria 0.265 0.252 0.238 n/a 0.236 n/a
Luxembourg 0.258 0.261 0.259 n/a 0.247 n/a
================================================================================
Mid-2000s 2000 Mid-1990s 1990 Mid-1980s Mid-1970s
================================================================================
Sweden 0.234 0.243 0.211 0.209 0.198 0.212
Denmark 0.232 0.226 0.215 n/a 0.221 n/a
================================================================================
Note: OECD-24 includes Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg,
Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Turkey,
United Kingdom and United States.
OECD-22 excludes Mexico and Turkey.

Source: OECD

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Evans in London at mevans8@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Libor for Euros Declines to Lowest Level Since Lehman Collapse

By Gavin Finch

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in euros for three months fell to the lowest level since before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed as governments stepped up efforts to boost bank balance sheets and policy makers offered cash to revive lending.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for such loans dropped 3 basis points to 4.96 percent today, the British Bankers' Association said. That's the lowest level since Sept. 12, the Friday before Lehman failed. The overnight dollar rate slid 23 basis points to 1.28 percent, below the Federal Reserve's target for the first time since Oct. 3.

``The initiatives that governments have taken are beginning to work,'' said Laurence Mutkin, the London-based head of European fixed-income strategy at Morgan Stanley. ``We're seeing a lot of improvement.''

Governments worldwide have introduced measures to shore up bank balance sheets after money markets seized up following the Lehman bankruptcy on Sept. 15. The French government will inject 10.5 billion euros ($14 billion) into BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale SA and four other domestic banks as they tap for the first time the 360 billion-euro rescue package unveiled this month.

Interbank rates have tumbled in the past week after policy makers in Europe offered lenders unlimited dollar funding. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England today made available as much U.S. currency as required. The ECB allotted $101.93 billion of 28-day cash at a fixed rate of 2.11 percent, while U.K. policy makers loaned $26 billion.

Libor-OIS

The Libor-OIS spread, which measures the difference between the three-month dollar rate and the overnight indexed swap rate, was at 274 basis points, down from 290 basis points yesterday and 364 basis points on Oct. 10.

Overnight indexed swaps are over-the-counter traded derivatives in which one party agrees to pay a fixed rate in exchange for the average of a floating central-bank rate during the life of the swap. For dollar swaps, the floating rate is the daily effective federal funds rate.

Treasury three-month bills fell for a fourth day, the longest sequence of declines in 10 weeks, as investor appetite for the safest assets dwindled on speculation concerted global action will ease the turmoil in the credit markets. The yield rose 14 basis points to 1.22 percent, the highest in about a month.

The three-month dollar Libor slid 23 basis points to 3.83 percent today. That's still 233 basis points more than the Fed's target rate for overnight loans of 1.5 percent, up from 120 basis points about a month ago. At the start of the year, the spread was 43 basis points. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

`Slight Improvement'

``We see a slight improvement on the interbank market, but no breakthrough yet,'' European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said in an interview with German radio station Deutschlandfunk. ``There's a high risk that we'll see another incident'' in the banking sector.

The Libor is used to determine rates on $360 trillion of financial products worldwide, from mortgages to company loans and derivatives.

Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s second-biggest bank, confirmed a report by Cazenove that the lender's ability to issue unsecured funding has improved since Oct. 8, when the government announced a rescue package for financial institutions.

Rates for one-month asset-backed commercial paper fell to the lowest level in a month today. Yields on the highest-rated ABCP placed by dealers and due in 30 days dropped 30 basis points, the fourth-straight decline, to 3.45 percent, the lowest since Sept. 22, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

TED Spread

Commercial paper is used by companies to meet short-term financing requirements.

The Fed invoked emergency authority today to purchase assets from money-market mutual funds that are having difficulty meeting redemptions from their investors. The central bank will lend to a series of special units that will buy certificates of deposit, bank notes and commercial paper with a remaining maturity of 90 days or less.

``There's plenty of cash on the table and there's plenty of money coming into the banking sector,'' said David Keeble, head of fixed-income strategy in London at Calyon, the investment-banking arm of Credit Agricole SA. ``What we're finding is that confidence has been improving.''

The difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow for three months, the so-called TED spread, was 261 basis points today, down from 298 basis points yesterday.

The demise of Lehman deepened a global credit crisis that froze the commercial paper and money markets, led to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley turning themselves into commercial banks and sent the TED spread on Oct. 10 to 464 basis points, the highest level since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1984.

The overnight Libor for dollars doubled to 6.44 percent on Sept. 16, a day after the Lehman bankruptcy filing, as banks balked at lending to each other on speculation more would fail.

In Asia, the three-month interbank lending rate for Hong Kong dollars, or Hibor, dropped for a third day, sliding 31 basis points to 3.35 percent, its longest run of declines in more than a month. Singapore's three-month rate for U.S. dollar loans slid for a sixth day, to 3.92 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net; Patricia Lui at plui4@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Fed Sets Up New Program to Buy Money-Fund Assets

By Craig Torres

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will help finance purchases of up to $600 billion in assets from money- market mutual funds roiled by redemptions from investors seeking the safety of government debt.

``The short-term debt markets have been under considerable strain in recent weeks as money market mutual funds and other investors have had difficulty selling assets to satisfy redemption requests,'' the Fed said in a statement released in Washington today. About $500 billion has flowed out of prime money-market funds since August, a central bank official said.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. will run the five special units that will buy certificates of deposit, bank notes and commercial paper with a remaining maturity of 90 days or less. The Fed will lend up to $540 billion to the five funds, an official told reporters on a conference call on condition of anonymity.

The new effort is called the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, the Fed said. Each unit will by paper from up to 10 separate issuers.

``In terms of the redemptions money-market funds are seeing, and hedge funds as well, any of these moves by the Fed are going to help,'' Mike Holland, chairman and founder of Holland & Co. LLC in New York, said in a television interview. ``We are going to see those redemptions eased.''

Commercial Paper

Money-market funds have been hurt by being unable to sell back at par the commercial paper they bought from banks and other issuers, Fed officials said.

The new program ``should improve the liquidity position of money market investors.''

The private special-purpose vehicles set up under the program being announced today will finance 10 percent of their purchases by selling asset-backed commercial paper. The New York Fed will lend the remaining 90 percent to the facilities on an overnight basis at the discount rate, which stands at 1.75 percent.

Each special-purpose vehicle will only purchase debt with ratings of at least A1/P1/F1. The Fed said the facility will be in place until April 30 unless extended by the Board of Governors. Fed officials said they will announce a start-date by the end of the week.

Third Program

The central bank already has two other facilities designed to provide liquidity to the commercial paper market and backstop money fund sales of asset-backed securities.

Turmoil worsened among money-market funds after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Sept. 15 and the breakdown of the oldest money-market fund the following day.

The $62.5 billion Reserve Primary Fund announced Sept. 16 that losses on debt issued by Lehman had reduced its net assets to 97 cents a share, making it the first money fund in 14 years to break the buck, the term for falling below the $1 a share that investors pay. Over the next two days, investors pulled $133 billion from U.S. money-market funds, according to IMoneyNet.

The record run abated only when the Treasury said it would use an existing $50 billion emergency pool to guarantee money funds against losses. The Treasury on Sept. 29 began using an existing $50 billion emergency pool to guarantee money-market funds against losses.

The Fed on Oct. 7 invoked emergency powers and said it would create a special fund to buy commercial paper. It plans to lend $152.1 billion to money funds in exchange for asset-backed commercial paper.

The government this month also announced plans to offer guarantees on new bank debts and start purchasing commercial paper. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson also plans to put $250 billion of taxpayer funds into bank balance sheets.

To contact the reporters on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net





Read more...

China Raises Export Rebates for Textiles, Toys as Growth Slows

By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Nerys Avery

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- China will raise export rebates on a range of products including textiles, toys and medicines next month to support the world's fourth-largest economy as the deepening global slowdown hurts demand for Chinese goods.

Tax rebates on some shipments of textiles, garments and toys will be increased to 14 percent and those on some plastics exports will be lifted to 9 percent, the Ministry of Finance said today on its Web site. The adjustment, which starts on Nov. 1, will apply to 3,486 items which account for a quarter of taxable exports, the statement said.

``The government is getting very worried about the risk of a sharp economic slowdown as the global recession started,'' said Kevin Lai, senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong. ``There will be more measures, including tax cuts, expansion of infrastructure spending and interest rate cuts.''

Today's announcement comes a day after official data showed China's economy grew 9 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in more than five years, as a looming global recession curbed demand for Chinese-made goods. Premier Wen Jiabao said on Oct. 19 the government would issue a series of measures to sustain growth in the face of the international financial and economic crisis.

The State Council, or cabinet, today approved construction of a series of infrastructure investment projects, including new expressways, airports, nuclear and hydro-electric power stations. No specific projects were mentioned in a statement posted on the government's Web site after the cabinet meeting.

The world's second-biggest goods exporter saw its trade surplus drop 3 percent to $180 billion in the first nine months as shipments to the U.S. and Europe cooled.

Toy Exports

``If these measures were not taken, there would be a further decline in exports which would have a negative impact on China's economic development,'' the Ministry of Finance said in its statement today.

Trade contributed 1.2 percentage points to China's 9.9 percent growth in the first nine months of the year, half the level in the same period of 2007, the statistics bureau said yesterday. China's export growth has averaged 22.2 percent this year, down from 27.2 percent last year, official data shows.

Half of the country's toy exporters went out of business in the first seven months of the year because of rising production costs and the increase in the value of the yuan, the customs bureau said last week. A quarter of Hong Kong-owned businesses in the Pearl River Delta manufacturing hub in southern Guangdong province may go bankrupt because of the global financial crisis, the Federation of Hong Kong Industries said yesterday.

Rebates on some furniture exports will be raised to 11 percent or 13 percent, the finance ministry said today. Drugs to treat AIDS and some other medicines and electrical goods such as sewing machines, electric fans and electronic parts for machine tools will also have their export rebates raised to between 9 and 13 percent, the statement said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at npiboontanas@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Bank of Canada Cuts Rate to 2.25%, Signals More Moves

By Greg Quinn

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Canada reduced its main interest rate by a quarter of a point, less than economists predicted, saying it will probably need to act again to fend off the effects of a credit crisis and global recession.

Governor Mark Carney and his five deputies trimmed the target rate for overnight loans between commercial banks to 2.25 percent, the lowest since October 2004. Seven of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the move, with 13 calling for a cut twice as deep and four expecting no change.

The credit squeeze spurred by the subprime mortgage meltdown is sapping demand for Canadian shipments of automobiles and lumber to the U.S., Canada's main export market. The global financial crisis also may crimp the domestic spending that's propped up Canada's economy, policy makers said. Today marked the first scheduled decision by a central bank within the Group of Seven major economies since a coordinated rate cut on Oct. 8.

``These actions provide timely and significant support to the Canadian economy,'' policy makers said in a statement from Ottawa, referring to their own rate cuts and the joint move. ``Some further monetary stimulus will likely be required.''

The Canadian dollar weakened 1.6 percent to C$1.2097 per U.S. dollar at 9:49 a.m. in Toronto from C$1.1909 yesterday.

``Surprisingly they didn't cut by more but the statement itself is awfully gloomy, leading me to believe there is an awful lot more to come,'' said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto.

Growth Forecast

The central bank may have been reluctant to ease by half a point after already doing so this month, he said.

Policy makers cut their forecast for economic growth this year to 0.6 percent from a July prediction of 1 percent. Next year's gross domestic product will also grow 0.6 percent, compared with a July forecast of 2.3 percent.

Canadian exporters will be hobbled by a U.S. recession, a world economy that ``appears to be heading into a mild recession,'' and lower prices for the country's exported commodities, the Bank of Canada said. Domestic spending will also be curbed by tougher lending conditions, the central bank said.

Policy makers didn't say that Canada's economy is headed for a recession, unlike economists at BMO Capital Markets, Bank of Nova Scotia, Credit Suisse Holdings Inc. and UBS AG.

Commodity Prices

Carney, 43, has room to cut rates because the economic slowdown is pushing commodity prices down from record highs set earlier this year. Those high prices drove inflation above the central bank's 2 percent target and boosted business profits and consumer incomes in provinces such as Alberta, home to the world's second-largest crude oil deposits.

Inflation peaked in the third quarter of this year and will fall below 1 percent in the middle of next year, the central bank said today. In July, policy makers said prices would accelerate to 4.1 percent between October and December.

The bank will provide a new detailed economic forecast paper in two days, and its next scheduled decision is Dec. 9.

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Quinn in Ottawa at gquinn1@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

ECB Lending, Liabilities Surge to Records After `Drastic' Steps

By Simon Kennedy

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank's lending to banks and its exposure to possible collateral losses jumped to records last week as the battle against the credit crisis forced it to shoulder more risk.

The Frankfurt-based ECB said it loaned banks 773.2 billion euros ($1.02 trillion) through monetary operations, up from 739.4 billion euros a week earlier and a 68 percent surge from the first week of September. Its liabilities to financial institutions rose to 470.3 billion euros, an increase of 4.4 percent from the previous week and up 123 percent from the start of last month.

The ECB is following the Federal Reserve and other central banks in combating the credit crunch by expanding its balance sheet as it injects more cash into the banking system. The downsides include taking on more risk as it accepts weaker collateral when lending.

``The urgency of the situation means that drastic measures need to be taken,'' said David Mackie, chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. ``Up until a month ago the balance sheet wasn't growing. Now the bank is creating more and more money.''

The ECB became more aggressive after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Sept. 15 prompted banks to hoard cash worldwide. To spur lending, the central bank has loaned money for longer timeframes and offered banks unlimited amounts of dollars and euros. It last week loosened rules on the collateral it will accept when making loans to include lower-rated securities, certificates of deposit and subordinated debt.

Demand for Cash

With the financial crisis spilling over into the economy, demand for banknotes has also jumped. The value of notes in circulation rose to 721.8 billion euros, an increase of 9.7 billion euros from the previous week and 5.4 percent from the start of last month, today's ECB data showed.

The combination of increased banknotes and liabilities means so-called high-powered money in the economy has now grown 33 percent since the first week of September. While defensible given the need to end the 14-month credit crunch, Mackie said such gains leave the central bank sitting on lower quality collateral, banks more reliant on public cash and the economy facing an inflation threat when a recovery begins.

When Lehman Brothers sought bankruptcy protection, its Frankfurt division owed between 8 billon euros and 9 billion euros to the ECB, the Wall Street Journal reported Oct. 7, without saying where it obtained the information.

`Increasing Our Risks'

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has said that while the bank is assuming more risk, it is doing so because of the greater threat of financial meltdown. ``We have made decisions which are increasing our risks,'' Trichet said in an Oct. 19 interview with France's RTL Radio. ``We are facing a systemic liquidity problem of first importance.''

The ECB's risk-taking may be paying off. The cost of borrowing euros for three months fell to the lowest level today since Lehman filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15. The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, for such loans dropped 3 basis points to 4.97 percent today, the European Banking Federation said.

While the U.S. Treasury last month sold government securities to help expand the Fed's balance sheet, Natacha Valla, a former ECB economist now at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said there is currently no need for euro-area governments to bolster the ECB's accounts. Still, national central banks in countries where the financial system is bigger than the economy, such as Luxembourg and Ireland, may require more capital at some point, she said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net





Read more...

France to Invest in Six Banks as Europe Steps Up Rescue Efforts

By Fabio Benedetti-Valentini and Sandrine Rastello

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- France's investment in its six biggest banks brings to at least $128 billion the amount European governments are pouring into financial institutions as the U.S. prepares to carry out a similar plan to unlock lending.

France will purchase subordinated debt from banks including BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA to help shore up capital, Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said at a press conference in Paris yesterday. In exchange, the banks will have to boost lending to companies and consumers, she said.

European governments have led the U.S. in efforts to recapitalize banks and thaw credit markets. Britain, France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands are among countries that pledged more than 2 trillion euros ($2.65 trillion) to guarantee bank loans and take stakes in lenders. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who at first rejected calls to invest directly in financial companies, plans to spend $250 billion buying equity in banks.

Leaders in Europe ``were a lot earlier than in the U.S. to understand that banks needed more capital to help solve the liquidity side of the equation,'' said Jonathan Tyce, a London- based analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton. ``It is an evolution and the approaches are becoming more tailored to the banks' needs.''

BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole SA rose in Paris trading after Lagarde announced her 10.5 billion-euro plan. BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, advanced 7.7 percent to 59.12 euros by 12:33 p.m., while Societe Generale climbed 9.5 percent to 48.12 euros. Credit Agricole gained 12 percent to 11.69 euros.

Swedish banks, including SEB AB and Swedbank, also rallied after the government pledged as much as 1.5 trillion kronor ($205 billion) yesterday to guarantee loans and created a fund that may buy shares in banks.

Capital Outpaces Losses

European financial institutions have raised about $266.5 billion from investors and governments since the credit crisis began last year, more than the $228 billion of credit losses and writedowns they reported, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In the U.S., capital raisings still trail writedowns, the figures show.

In addition to France's three largest publicly traded banks, the government will invest in customer-owned Credit Mutuel, Caisse d'Epargne and Banque Populaire. The funds will boost the banks' shareholder equity and increase solvency ratios without being dilutive for shareholders, said France's central bank. The purchases are part of the 360 billion-euro state rescue package France announced last week.

``It's a balanced approach,'' said Gilles Moec, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in London. ``The government wants to avoid a contraction in the French credit markets at all costs. The banks now have more than enough to protect themselves from the risks that have paralyzed them since the summer.''

Helping the Economy

Like governments in London and Berlin, French President Nicolas Sarkozy is attaching strings to the capital injection. U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has demanded banks offer help to homeowners struggling to pay mortgages and accept government- appointed board members. German Chancellor Angela Merkel insists on ``state influence'' over management decisions.

``The goal of this operation isn't to recapitalize those banks that need it but to support financing for the economy,'' said Christian Noyer, European Central Bank governing council member and governor of the Bank of France.

Credit Agricole, which operates France's largest consumer- banking network, will sell 3 billion euros of subordinated debt, BNP Paribas 2.55 billion euros and Societe Generale 1.7 billion euros. Caisse d'Epargne and Banque Populaire will sell 1.1 billion euros and 950 million euros of debt respectively. Credit Mutuel will issue 1.2 billion euros of debt.

`Not a Gift'

``The state is not giving a gift to the banks,'' Lagarde said. ``The pricing of these securities will be based on available market references. They will generate substantial revenue for the state.''

The French actions follow efforts across Europe. The Dutch government bought local units of Fortis and ABN Amro Holding NV for 16.8 billion euros. Zurich-based UBS AG agreed to sell a stake of 6 billion Swiss francs ($5.2 billion) to the government and split off as much as $60 billion of risky assets into a fund backed by the central bank.

The U.K.'s Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc may sell as much as 20 billion pounds of stock to the government unless investors agree to buy shares. On Oct. 19, the Netherlands said ING Groep NV, the biggest Dutch financial-services firm, will get 10 billion euros after it warned of its first quarterly loss.

In the U.S., Paulson allocated an initial $125 billion to nine of the largest banks, including Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley, and now plans to inject $125 billion into other lenders, using funds from a $700 billion bailout package to buy the non-voting preferred equity stakes.

French Growth Slowing

Lagarde said yesterday that French growth in 2009 will probably fall short of the government's 1 percent forecast as the financial and economic crisis limits any expansion. French statistics institute Insee estimates the euro region's second- largest economy slipped into a recession in the third quarter.

The growth in lending to the private sector slowed to 10.2 percent in August from a year earlier, compared with 12 percent just two months before, according to Bank of France statistics. In another central bank survey, more than half of the banks said they would tighten lending criteria in the third quarter.

The French government last week said it will set up two entities, one that will lend up to 320 billion euros to banks and another that will spend as much as 40 billion euros to take equity stakes in banks, if needed. The measures, designed to restore liquidity to financial markets, were part of a plan agreed by the 15 countries that use the euro.

To contact the reporters on this story: Sandrine Rastello in Paris at srastello@bloomberg.net; Fabio Benedetti-Valentini in Paris at fbenedettiva@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

IMF Says More Europe Banks `May Fail' as Recapitalizing Slows

By Simon Kennedy

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said more European banks may fail as they struggle to raise fresh capital from investors.

In its annual review of the European economy published today, the Washington-based lender said financial markets are now ``paying increasing attention'' to pure leverage rather than accounting for how risky it is. By that measure, Europe's banks score less favorably than those in the U.S., it said.

As sovereign wealth funds and investors show diminished appetite for putting money into banks and volatile markets make it hard to raise capital, Europe's financial institutions will find their ability to raise funds falling and the need for government support growing, the IMF said.

``While recapitalizing initially went well, it is now likely to slow,'' the Fund said in the report. ``Additional banks may fail.''

European banks have raised $266.7 billion in new capital since the start of 2007 amid losses and writedowns of $228 billion in that time, according to Bloomberg data. Governments are now providing support, with France announcing late yesterday that it will provide BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale SA and four other French banks with 10.5 billion euros ($14 billion).

The banking stress is now feeding into the broader economy as companies and consumers find their access to credit shut off, the IMF said. Economies where housing booms occurred, such as Denmark, Ireland, Spain and the U.K., will see the sharpest downturns, it said.

`Major Downturn'

``We are facing a major downturn in all countries,'' Alessandro Leipold, acting director of the IMF's European department, told journalists in Brussels today. ``Most economies are going to experience a recession into early 2009, followed by a very gradual recovery.''

The Fund repeated its forecast of Oct. 8 that the 15-nation euro area will grow 0.2 percent next year and the continent as a whole will expand 1.4 percent. Emerging markets may expand less next year than the 4.3 percent anticipated, it said.

``Activity is expected to stagnate in most advanced economies in the near term,'' the IMF said. ``With adjustment in the financial sector likely to be arduous and protracted, a modest recovery is expected only later in 2009.''

As inflation slows, ``scope for easing monetary policy has emerged,'' it said. The central banks of the euro area, the U.K. and Sweden all cut interest rates by a half percentage point on Oct. 8. Emerging markets that have overheated may find it harder to cut rates given wage pressures persist, the IMF said.

Governments may also have room to spend more although they should focus on alleviating the financial turmoil and ensure budget deficits remain within limits, it said.

`Hard Landing'

Emerging-market economies are ``also feeling the strain'' and risks of a ``hard landing remain elevated in parts of the region'' after a surge in current-account deficits increased reliance on foreign capital, according to the report. Policy makers should use currency reserves and budgets to cushion any slowdown in capital flows, the IMF said.

``They need to draw up contingency plans for hard landings,'' Leipold said. ``Up to a certain point, their resilience was remarkable, but they certainly now are feeling the full blast of the crisis.''

The Fund said the turmoil should spur coordination between the region's governments. When the crisis passes, governments and central banks may also want to increase regulation to reduce the likelihood of future asset-price gains sparking surging investment, it said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at Skennedy4@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Kerkorian Cuts Ford Stake, May Exit as $1 Billion Bet Collapses

By Bill Koenig

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian may sell his Ford Motor Co. stake after the $1 billion holding lost two- thirds of its value and put his firm's casino investments at risk.

Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. sold 7.3 million Ford shares yesterday for an average of $2.43 each and said it contacted an investment bank about unloading the rest. Tracinda's remaining 133.5 million shares were valued at $311.1 million based on yesterday's closing price.

Kerkorian, 91, acted 5 days after Ford's collapsing stock price forced him to pledge another 50 million shares of his MGM Mirage casino company to support the $600 million credit line used to buy stock in the second-largest U.S. automaker. Tracinda paid as much as $8.50.

``It was an investment that made no sense,'' said Maryann Keller, an independent auto analyst and consultant in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``He's pulling in his horns and concentrating on areas he knows best.''

Tracinda ``intends to further reduce its holdings'' in Ford to concentrate on gambling, hotels and energy, according to the filing, which didn't give specifics.

Winnie Lerner, an outside spokeswoman for Tracinda with Abernathy MacGregor Group, declined comment about any companies in which Tracinda may invest. Tracinda is the majority owner of Las Vegas-based MGM Mirage, the world's second-largest casino company, and holds a 35 percent stake in Denver-based Delta Petroleum Corp., according to Bloomberg data.

Ford's Response

``We're going to stay focused on our turnaround plan,'' Mark Truby, a spokesman for Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford, said in an interview. ``Any questions about Tracinda's investment should be directed to Tracinda.''

Ford fell 6 cents to $2.27 at 10:36 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, pushing their slide over the past year to 73 percent. MGM Mirage rose $1.46, or 11 percent, to $15.29. The shares dropped 84 percent this year before today.

Kerkorian disclosed in late April he had acquired 100 million shares of Ford, and said June 19 he had boosted his stake to 140.8 million shares, or 6.43 percent. He expressed support for Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally's efforts to revamp the automaker after $23.9 billion in losses since 2005.

Under Mulally, Ford is cutting jobs and closing plants in North America, the region that's the main reason for the automaker's deficits. Ford also is developing new car and crossover wagon models to lessen its dependence on trucks. The company also is retooling three North American plants to produce small cars.

Still, industry sales have been plummeting this year, and less than a month after Kerkorian unveiled his investment Ford announced it was abandoning a goal for returning to profit in 2009. Ford hasn't set a new target and also has said its rate of cash consumption is increasing, without releasing an estimate.

More Collateral

Tracinda's pledge of additional MGM Mirage shares last week pushed the total collateral to 100 million shares for the credit line with Bank of America Corp. used to buy the Ford stock.

Kerkorian, ranked 27th on Forbes magazine's list of the richest people in the U.S., with a net worth of $11.2 billion, had made several forays into the auto industry before his Ford venture.

In 1995, he led a hostile takeover bid for the former Chrysler Corp. and won a board seat in exchange for calling off his attack. Later, he unsuccessfully sued the new DaimlerChrysler, accusing it of misleading investors about Daimler-Benz AG's 1998 purchase of the U.S. automaker.

DaimlerChrysler lawyers estimated in 2003 that Kerkorian eventually made $2.7 billion on his Chrysler investment.

After taking what he initially said was a passive position in General Motors Corp. in 2005, Kerkorian gained a board seat for his adviser, Jerry York, and tried to force the world's largest automaker to merge with Renault SA and Nissan Motor Corp. Rebuffed, Kerkorian dumped his investment with an estimated $106 million profit in 2006.

Last year, he was among unsuccessful bidders to buy Chrysler from Daimler AG.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Koenig in Southfield, Michigan, at wkoenig@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Natural Gas Futures Are Steady on Outlook for Ample Storage

By Reg Curren

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures were little changed in New York on signs of ample U.S. supplies of the furnace fuel to start the cold-weather season.

Stockpiles are 85 billion cubic feet, or 2.7 percent, above the five-year average for this time of year, according to the Energy Department. Utilities and industrial consumers may push stored amounts past the five-year average of 3.327 trillion cubic feet by the time the inventory rebuilding period ends Oct. 31.

``We've built a cushion against the five-year average and that will likely stretch again on Oct. 23 and that's enough to keep the bulls at bay,'' said James Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois.

Natural gas for November delivery gained 1.6 cents to $6.757 per million British thermal units at 9:33 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas futures yesterday declined 9.7 percent this year.

Gas inventories probably gained 68 billion cubic feet last week, Stephen Smith, president of Stephen Smith Energy of Natchez, Mississippi, said in an e-mail. The average change over the past five years is an increase of 62 billion cubic feet, according to government data. The Energy Department is scheduled to release its next supply report on Oct. 23.

If the current surplus is maintained until Oct. 31, supplies would reach 3.41 trillion cubic feet, based on department data.

Weather forecasts for the next two weeks are also working against gas price gains, as meteorologists expect temperatures to climb back to normal late next week from below-normal, Ritterbusch said.

``We're not getting any help from the weather factor at all with normal temperatures,'' he said.

Gas prices will probably stay in a range between $6.50 and $7 per million Btu until the November contract expires next week, Ritterbusch said.

U.S. gas inventories increased 79 billion cubic feet in the week ended Oct. 10 to 3.277 trillion cubic feet, an Energy Department report on Oct. 16 showed. Supplies last November reached a record 3.545 trillion cubic feet to start the heating season.

To contact the reporter on this story: Reg Curren in Calgary at rcurren@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

Poland Fails to Gain Support on Weakening EU Climate Goals

By Katya Andrusz

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Poland failed to win more support from European Union environment ministers for watering down the bloc's climate-change proposals, threatening a deadline to reach an agreement by year-end.

Eastern members of the group, led by Poland, are unhappy with plans that would force power companies to buy 100 percent of their carbon-dioxide emission permits in auctions that would begin in 2013.

``I haven't seen any changes in viewpoint so far,'' Polish Environment Minister Maciej Nowicki said today in a telephone interview after meeting with his counterparts in Luxembourg yesterday. ``And we don't have much time left. But we'll do everything we can to make sure there's an agreement this year.''

The Polish government, which has said the plan could push up domestic energy prices by as much as 70 percent, has suggested a phased process for auctioning or a system that would combine auctions with benchmarking that would only require power stations with older technology to buy permits.

The lack of agreement among environment ministers at their meetings that ended late yesterday risks the 27-member bloc's aim to reach a new accord on curbing greenhouse gases by Dec. 31. Italy also has rejected the climate plan.

Proponents say a deal between ex-communist countries and their wealthier EU neighbors would help clinch an international agreement for curbing gases that trap heat after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

The 10 former communist countries that joined the EU earlier this decade are being unjustly treated as their economies try to catch up with their richer western neighbors, Nowicki said. The region should be rewarded because without cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by the eastern states the EU would not meet its pledge under the Kyoto treaty to curb emissions 8 percent by 2012 compared with 1990, he said.

``It's only after putting our region into the equation that the EU meets the Kyoto pledges,'' Nowicki said. ``So we're saving the EU from a big embarrassment.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Katya Andrusz in Warsaw at kandrusz@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Russia, Iran, Qatar Form `Gas Troika,' Gazprom Says

By Ladane Nasseri and Greg Walters

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, Iran and Qatar, holders of more than half of the world's natural gas, agreed to form a ``gas troika'' for joint exploration and production, OAO Gazprom said.

``We have agreed to create a technical committee and one of its missions will be to review projects that can be implemented in a trilateral way,'' Alexei Miller, chief executive officer of the Russian gas exporter, told reporters in Tehran today after talks with Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari and Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah.

The U.S. and Europe have warned against the Iran-led initiative to create a ``gas OPEC' aimed at controlling supplies and prices. Russia's government has dismissed those concerns, saying closer cooperation with other producers in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum is meant to ensure present and future deliveries. This year's annual forum, which has been delayed repeatedly, is scheduled to take place in Moscow on Nov. 17.

``Big decisions were made today,'' Nozari said. ``There is a consensus to create this organization, and to prepare its constitution for the next meeting of ministers.''

Gas producers need to work together because of the ``huge'' costs of developing new fields and building pipelines, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko told German business leaders this month. Fears of a ``gas OPEC'' are overblown because there's already a ``quasi-cartel of consumers'' in developed economies, he said Oct. 2. Russia supplies a quarter of Europe's gas.

`Symbolic' Project

The initiative is for the moment ``symbolic,'' according to Ron Smith, chief strategist at Moscow's Alfa bank. ``The chance of this impacting natural-gas markets over the next 10 years is virtually nil.''

While oil is a global market, gas is ``still a patchwork of local markets,'' Smith said in a telephone interview. ``Any attempt to regulate natural-gas supply in one area of the world has only marginal impact in any other part of the world.''

Russia, the biggest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, is also seeking closer cooperation with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls 40 percent of global crude output. OPEC Secretary General Abdulla el-Badri is scheduled to arrive in Moscow today for talks with Shmatko and other government officials.

``Part of the discussion today was related to oil output,'' Gazprom's Miller said. ``Producing nations, given their strategic interests, certainly need to coordinate together.'' Asked whether his country would support an OPEC decision to cut crude production when it meets on Oct. 24, he said, ``Russia has taken steps toward cooperation and will continue doing so.''

Gas Reserves

Russia holds 25 percent of the world's proven gas reserves, according to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy. Iran has 16 percent and Qatar 14 percent.

The three countries agreed to meet three or four times a year ``to discuss important questions in the development of the gas market,'' Miller said in an e-mailed statement following the talks. The ``gas troika's'' expert group will hold its first meeting in the Qatari capital, Doha, within a week.

``Fluctuations in the price of oil do not place in doubt the fundamental thesis that the era of cheap hydrocarbons is over,'' Miller said in the statement.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ladane Nasseri in Tehran at lnasseri@bloomberg.net; Greg Walters in Moscow gwalters1@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Rand Falls Versus Dollar as Manuel Flags Budget Deficit in 2009

By Garth Theunissen

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's rand fell after Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said the country will post a budget deficit next fiscal year as the global financial crisis reduces economic growth to its slowest pace in eight years.

The rand extended declines against the dollar and euro after Manuel said in his mid-term budget speech today the shortfall will reach 1.6 percent of gross domestic product in the year through March 2010, compared with a February estimate of a 0.6 percent surplus. The government also cut its economic growth forecast for next year to 3 percent from 4.2 percent.

``This is very bad news for the rand because South Africa will now be joining the ranks of the twin-deficit countries,'' said Ulrich Leuchtmann, an emerging-markets currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-biggest lender. ``A fiscal deficit is a very bad thing to introduce in a country that's been running a deficit on the current account for some time.''

The rand fell as much as 3.6 percent to 10.5564 per dollar and traded at 10.5050 by 4:01 p.m. in Johannesburg, from 10.1875 yesterday. It slipped versus 14 of the 16 most-active currencies monitored by Bloomberg, losing 1.8 percent to 13.8587 per euro, from 13.6178.

Markets are focusing on countries with ``fundamental risks'' and that ``raises the possibility of further rand depreciation,'' Leuchtmann said. The rand may fall to as low as 12 per dollar by year-end, he predicted.

Higher global borrowing costs, falling commodity prices and weaker demand for South Africa's exports, will cause the economy to slow and push the budget into deficit, Manuel told lawmakers in Cape Town.

Surplus Shrinks

This year's budget surplus will be 0.1 percent of GDP, less than the 0.8 percent predicted in February, he said.

``The storm has arrived, it is fiercer than anyone could have imagined and its course cannot be predicted,'' Manuel said.

South Africa's currency also fell after the government said the country's current-account deficit will swell to 7.6 percent of GDP this year, 7.8 percent in 2009 and 8.9 percent in 2010.

The rand slid 33 percent against the dollar this year, making it the worst-performing major currency in the world, partly on concern the country will struggle to finance the gap with foreign purchases of stocks and bonds.

Foreigners have been net sellers of about 40 billion rand ($3.8 billion) in South African stocks and bonds this year, data from its exchanges show.

The rand is under pressure from the global credit crisis and not from a ``speculative attack,'' Lesetja Kganyago, the Treasury's director general, said in an interview in Cape Town today. The shortfall on the current account makes the rand more ``vulnerable,'' he said.

Government bonds stayed lower, with the yield on the benchmark 13.5 percent security due September 2015 rising 11 basis points to 9.45 percent. The yield on the 13 percent note due August 2010 climbed 19 basis points to 9.77 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

To contact the reporter on this story: Garth Theunissen in Johannesburg gtheunissen@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Ruble Weakens a Fifth Day Against Dollar on Devaluation Concern

By Emma O'Brien

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's ruble weakened for a fifth straight day against the dollar on speculation banks and companies are converting funds borrowed from the government into foreign exchange on concern the currency will be devalued.

The ruble fell the most in more than a week against the central bank's dollar-euro basket as Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reiterated their forecast for the currency to depreciate by as much as 5 percent in the next 12 months. Bank Rossii yesterday restricted the use of currency swaps, which allow traders to bet on the ruble's decline without converting currency upfront.

``Banks or companies receiving liquidity prefer dollar to ruble because they think the dollar's safer and the ruble may be devalued,'' said Stanislav Ponomarenko, chief economist at ING Bank NV in Moscow. The central bank provided about 400 billion rubles ($15 billion) of loans to banks yesterday, he said.

The ruble lost as much as 0.8 percent to 26.5811 per dollar, and traded at 26.5560 by 3:28 p.m. in Moscow, from 26.3608 yesterday. It rose 0.2 percent to 35.1034 per euro, from 35.1659.

Bank Rossii keeps the ruble within a trading band against the currency basket to limit the effect of its movements on the competitiveness of Russian exports. The basket rate is calculated by multiplying the ruble's rate to the dollar by 0.55, the euro rate by 0.45, then adding them together.

The currency slid 0.3 percent to 30.4022 against the basket, from 30.3231 yesterday, when it rose 0.3 percent.

State Loans

Russia's government has pledged more than $200 billion in loans to banks, cash auctions and tax breaks as the country grapples with its worst financial crisis since defaulting on $40 billion of sovereign debt in 1998.

Companies and banks already have applied for almost $100 billion in loans from state development bank Vnesheconombank to help them refinance debt, Chairman Vladimir Dmitriev said today in comments confirmed by VEB's press service after they were reported by Interfax.

``It's leading to demand for dollars,'' Ponomarenko said.

Concern the central bank will devalue the currency pushed the ruble-dollar rate at Moscow money changers to as high as 27 rubles over the weekend, according to Vedomosti newspaper. BNP Paribas SA advised clients to bet on ruble declines against the dollar. JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicted last week the currency will fall as low as 32 against the basket by yearend.

`No One-Way Bet'

Should oil prices stabilize below $60 a barrel over the next 18 months, Russia's current-account may slip into deficit, from a surplus of $91.2 billion, Neil Shearing, an emerging- markets economist in London at Capital Economics Ltd. said in a research note yesterday. That may cause a 6 percent drop in the ruble against the dollar by the end of next year, he said.

``The fundamentals underpinning the ruble are not as strong as they were a few months ago,'' Shearing said in an interview today. ``It's no longer a one-way bet.''

ING said it's considering reducing its forecast for the ruble because the declining oil price may reduce the current- account surplus to zero, Ponomarenko said. Goldman's prediction is based on an average oil price next year of $85 a barrel.

Oil dropped 1.6 percent to $73.10 a barrel in New York trading today. The country's 2009 budget will stay in surplus providing the average price for Urals crude, Russia's export blend, remains above $70 a barrel in the year. Urals has been below $70 a barrel since Oct. 15.

Depleted Reserves

Russia has no plans to devalue the ruble, Interfax cited Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Shatalov as saying today. Kommersant newspaper reported yesterday Bank Rossii may devalue the currency by as much as 10 percent, citing an unidentified economist at the bank.

Bank Rossii bought $100 million yesterday to curb swings in the ruble exchange rate and replenish international reserves, according to Mikhail Galkin, head of fixed-income and credit research at MDM Bank in Moscow.

The bank has sold at least $27 billion of its foreign- currency reserves since Aug. 1, according to MDM, to prevent the ruble from dropping beyond 30.40, a level regarded by analysts as the weakest end of the trading band. Reserves declined 11 percent since a record $597.5 billion in the week to Aug. 8, the day Russia sent forces into Georgia.

Government bonds rose for the first time in five says, with the yield on the 7.5 percent bond due 2030 falling 22 basis points to 10.1 percent. The yield on the 8.25 percent bond maturing 2010 declined 12 basis points to 5.48 percent. The extra yield investors demand to hold two-year Russian notes over U.S. Treasuries of similar maturity narrowed 11 basis points to 380 points today. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma O'Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Canada's Dollar Falls Most in a Week on Interest-Rate Reduction

By Chris Fournier

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's currency fell the most in almost a week after the central bank cut borrowing costs for the fifth time since December.

Canada's dollar has depreciated 12 percent this month as commodities have weakened. Policy makers lowered the key rate a quarter-percentage point to 2.25 percent. Economists had forecast a half-point reduction, the median of 25 estimates.

``The point is they still cut rates,'' said James Shugg, a senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in London, who correctly predicted the quarter-point reduction. ``Rates will probably still fall further.''

The Canadian dollar depreciated by as much as 1.8 percent to C$1.2123 per U.S. dollar, from C$1.1910 yesterday. It last traded at C$1.2094 at 9:47 a.m. in Toronto. The currency fell 2.4 percent on Oct. 15. One Canadian dollar buys 82.69 U.S. cents.

The central bank lowered its key rate to 2.5 percent from 3 percent on Oct. 8 as part of a coordinated effort to ease the economic effects of the financial crisis. Canada's dollar declined 2 percent that day.

Shugg said the Canadian dollar's decline has been overdone and predicts the currency will strengthen to C$1.08 by the end of 2009.

``The Bank of Canada sees the global economy in a mild recession, which will weigh on the Canadian dollar overall,'' said David Watt, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. ``The global economic backdrop still seems heavily weighted against the Canadian dollar.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Pound Falls Against Dollar as Manufacturing Confidence Declines

By Kim-Mai Cutler

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound slipped against the dollar as U.K. manufacturing confidence fell to its weakest in almost three decades as the collapse in lending between banks drives the economy into a recession.

The pound declined for a third day versus the dollar and pared an advance against the euro after the Confederation of British Industry said its quarterly gauge of business optimism plunged to the lowest level since July 1980. The Treasury sold 4.75 billion pounds ($8.2 billion) of notes maturing in 2011 today to help fund a 37-billion pound bailout of the nation's biggest banks.

``There are substantial negatives for the pound that are going to be manifested in dollar terms,'' said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA. ``The U.K. has a fragile housing market, weak employment and slowing domestic demand.'' The pound may weaken to $1.55 by the beginning of 2010, Redeker said.

The U.K. currency fell to $1.7027 pence per dollar as of 11:37 a.m. in London, from $1.7152 pence yesterday. Against the euro, the pound rose to 77.71 pence, from 77.79 pence.

A collapse in credit markets and the worst housing slump in a generation have hit the U.K. economy, Europe's second-biggest. The CBI, Britain's biggest business lobby, said in a report its measure of optimism slid to minus 60, from minus 40.

`Limit Downturn'

The survey ``is the start of the very bad data that will only support the need for aggressive fiscal and monetary action,'' Divyang Shah, chief strategist in London at CBA Europe Ltd., a unit of Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a report. ``The key focus now from policy makers is to limit the depth and duration of the downturn.''

The yield on the U.K. two-year note fell 2 basis points to 3.45 percent. The 4.75 percent security due June 2010 rose 0.04, or 40 pence per 1,000-pound face amount, to 102.03. The yield on the 10-year note fell 2 basis points to 4.59 percent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

The difference in yield, or spread, between the two- and 10-year gilts was 111 basis points, the widest since October 1996, as investors favored shorter-dated notes on speculation the Bank of England will lower borrowing costs to revive the economy.

The implied yield on the March sterling interest-rate futures contract was at 3.85 percent, down from 4.1 percent a week ago. The central bank's main interest rate is 4.50 percent.

The government said last week it would buy stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, HBOS Plc and Lloyds TSB Group Plc to shore up their finances and restore confidence.

Bailout Auctions

To help finance the bailout, the Treasury auctioned 4.75 billion pounds of notes yielding 3.85 percent today. Investors bid for 2.29 times the amount of securities offered. In the first offering yesterday, te Treasury sold 1 billion pounds of notes due 2009 yielding 3.03 percent. Investors bid for 2.13 times the securities offered.

``The supply is there to satiate strong demand for government bonds,'' said Alessandro Tentori, a fixed-income strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank. ``As long as we're in a crisis, I'm not too worried about supply.''

One more auction is planned this week, with 3 billion pounds of notes due 2018 to be sold on Oct. 23.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kim-Mai Cutler in London at kcutler@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Mexico's Peso Falls for Third Day on U.S. Recession Concern

By Michael J. Moore

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's peso fell for a third day as U.S. stock futures dropped and technology companies' earnings provided evidence that Mexico's largest trading partner may be headed toward a recession.

The peso dropped 1.1 percent to 13.1397 per U.S. dollar at 8:34 a.m. New York time from 12.9901 yesterday. Banco de Mexico has bought $11.2 billion worth of pesos in the past two weeks in an effort to shore up the currency after it plunged to a record low of 14.2927 on Oct. 8.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Yen Rises to Near Three-Year High Versus Euro on Rate Outlook

By Ye Xie and Agnes Lovasz

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The yen climbed to near a three-year high against the euro on speculation central banks will lower borrowing costs to limit the global economic slump, encouraging investors to sell higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.

The euro fell to a 19-month low against the dollar on bets the European Central Bank will cut interest rates at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve. The Australian dollar declined against the greenback after the Reserve Bank of Australia said it saw a ``strong economic case'' for its Oct. 7 interest-rate reduction, fueling expectations for another cut.

``The economic fallout of the crisis will lead to more aggressive policy actions in major countries,'' said Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``The yen and the dollar will be the beneficiaries.''

The yen rose 1.9 percent to 133.32 per euro at 9:48 a.m. in New York, from 135.92 yesterday. It touched 132.24 on Oct. 10, the strongest since level June 2005. The yen advanced 0.8 percent to 101 per dollar from 101.86. The euro fell 1.1 percent to $1.3199 from $1.3344 after touching $1.3154, the lowest level since March 2007. The euro will depreciate to $1.26 in eight weeks, Fitzpatrick said.

The Canadian dollar extended its decline after the Bank of Canada reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter- percentage point to 2.25 percent. The currency dropped as much as 1.7 percent to C$1.2113 per U.S. dollar.

Yen vs. Real

Japan's yen rose 4.6 percent to 45.97 versus the Brazilian real and 2.51 percent to 61.91 per New Zealand dollar on bets investors will unwind carry trades, in which they get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher. Japan's 0.5 percent target rate compares with 13.75 percent in Brazil and 7.5 percent in New Zealand.


Investors bet the ECB will lower borrowing costs by another 0.75 percentage point by June after cutting the main refinancing rate by a half-percentage point to 3.75 percent on Oct. 8 as part of coordinated reductions by major central banks.

The implied yield on the three-month Euribor contract expiring in June fell to 3.25 percent, the lowest level since January 2006. The yield has been 0.23 percentage point higher than the benchmark rate on average over the past year. The Fed will cut its benchmark rate by at least a half-percentage point from 1.50 percent at its Oct. 29 policy meeting, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade indicate.

``Concerns over a European economic downturn are intensifying,'' said Ryohei Muramatsu, manager of Group Treasury Asia at Commerzbank AG in Tokyo. ``An ECB rate cut is possible. The euro is becoming a very weak currency.''

Stark on Rates

The currency shared by 15 European countries fell to its lowest level against the dollar since March 2007 after ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said in an interview with the radio station Deutschlandfunk that he sees risks for one or two more ``accidents'' in financial markets.

The dollar has gained 18 percent since touching a record low of $1.6038 per euro on July 15 on speculation the U.S. currency will benefit as the European economy slows.

The greenback gained yesterday after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke called yesterday for government-stimulus measures to avert a prolonged recession.

U.S. lawmakers should consider ``measures to help improve access to credit by consumers, homebuyers, businesses and other borrowers,'' Bernanke said in testimony to the House Budget Committee yesterday. The White House said it's ``open'' to the idea of a new plan, having previously withheld support for additions to a $168 billion package approved in February.

Stop Losses

The dollar's gain against the euro accelerated after stop losses on investors' long positions on the euro were activated when the $1.3260 level was broken, said Antje Praefcke, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank. A stop loss is an automatic order to buy or sell an asset should it reach a particular level.

Praefcke expects the dollar to trade at $1.34 per euro at year-end and to strengthen to $1.25 by the end of 2009. That compares with a median estimate of $1.40 and $1.33 in a survey of analysts by Bloomberg News.

The Australian dollar fell 2.6 percent to 68.63 U.S. cents as minutes of the Reserve Bank's Oct. 7 meeting released today showed policy makers said inflation will slow at a faster rate than previously expected as the global economy slows.

Citic Pacific Ltd., the Hong Kong arm of China's biggest state-owned investment company, said yesterday it may lose as much as HK$15.5 billion ($2 billion) on unauthorized currency contracts that went sour as the Australian dollar declined. The currency plunged 28 percent since June 30 against the dollar, the most among the 16 most-active currencies.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net; Agnes Lovasz in London at alovasz@bloomberg.net


Read more...

Brazil's Real Weakens as Global Investors Unwind Carry Trades

By Jamie McGee

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real weakened for the first time in four days as investors pulled money from higher-yielding assets on concern that slowing global growth may prompt central banks to reduce interest rates in the U.S. and Europe.

The real dropped 2.9 percent to 2.1815 per U.S. dollar at 10:23 a.m., from 2.1182 yesterday.

The selling is ``a flight to quality,'' said Bartosz Pawlowski, a strategist at TD Securities Ltd. in London. ``All the carry trades are being unwound.''

Brazil and other Latin American countries are better protected than other emerging markets because of central bank interventions, Pawlowski said.

The real has fallen 13 percent this month, after advancing against all 16 of the most actively traded currencies in the first eight months of the year. The real has weakened against 13 of those currencies in the last month.

Brazil's central bank agreed to lend $1.62 billion of its foreign reserves to local banks to aid finance exporters. The bank sold dollars in the spot market and sold 16,000 currency swap contracts at an auction yesterday. In a statement yesterday, the bank said it plans to sell 10,000 currency swap contracts today.

The yield on the government's zero-coupon bonds due in January 2010 fell 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 14.7 percent, according to Banco Votorantim.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jamie McGee in New York at jmcgee8@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Cocoa Sets 2008 Low as Dollar Gains, Ivory Coast Blockade Ends

By Ron Day

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Cocoa reached the lowest price of the year in New York as the stronger dollar boosted the cost of commodities traded in the U.S. and a blockade ended in Ivory Coast, the world's biggest producer.

The dollar reached a 19-month high against the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggested yesterday that Congress consider additional economic stimulus to avert a prolonged recession. Deliveries of beans resumed in Ivory Coast, an exporter said, after cocoa farmers stopped blocking trucks from unloading at the western port of San Pedro to press demands for higher prices.

Cocoa futures for December delivery fell $50, or 2.4 percent, to $2,035 a metric ton at 9:24 a.m. on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The price earlier touched $2,016, the lowest for a most-active contract since Dec. 3.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Day in New York at rday1@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

Copper Tumbles Below $2 a Pound to Lowest Since December 2005

By Millie Munshi

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper tumbled below $2 a pound for the first time since December 2005 on speculation that the world economy is headed for a recession that will reduce demand for metals.

China, the biggest contributor to global growth, expanded at the slowest pace in five years in the third quarter, a report showed yesterday. U.S. lawmakers and officials moved toward forging a second fiscal-stimulus package to stem the economic decline. Before today, copper had fallen 30 percent this year on signs of declining demand.

``It's very significant to see copper come under $2,'' said Ron Goodis, futures trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey. ``People are wondering, `How did it fall so far so fast?' It's easy. With this economy, it doesn't matter what the price is, people don't want copper.''

Copper futures for December delivery fell 10.9 cents, or 5.1 percent, to $2.0075 a pound at 9:57 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price dropped to $1.992, the lowest for a most-active contract since Dec. 21, 2005. The metal touched a record $4.2605 on May 5.

``Economic conditions have weakened dramatically in recent weeks and there is significant uncertainty about the near-term price outlook,'' Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's biggest publicly-traded copper miner, said today in a statement.

Copper's slump ``is attributable to the fact that the global slowdown is now spreading to China,'' Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut, said in a report today.

Chinese gross-domestic product rose 9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the weakest quarter since 2003, the statistics bureau said in Beijing yesterday. The Asian country is the world's biggest metals user.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months dropped $250.75, or 5.3 percent, to $4,469 a metric ton ($2.03 a pound).

To contact the reporter on this story: Millie Munshi in New York at mmunshi@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

Gold Declines in London as Dollar Advances, Equities Climb

By Marianne Stigset

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Gold declined to near a one-month low in London as the dollar gained against the euro and stocks rose, reducing the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment.

Stock indexes in Europe and Asia rose for a third day and the dollar climbed to an 18-month high against the euro as the U.S. moved toward a second stimulus package to buoy the economy.

``We're seeing increasing stability in the equities markets,'' Bayram Dincer, a commodity research analyst at Dresdner Bank, said by phone from Zurich. ``The fear is coming down. The volatility indexes are coming down, and that eases the upside pressure on gold.''

Gold for immediate delivery fell $15.16, or 1.9 percent, to $781.74 an ounce by 11:10 a.m. in London. Futures for December slipped $6.70, or 0.9 percent, to $783.30 in electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

``The gold bulls are out of the market for the time being,'' Dincer said. ``Liquidation by the hedge funds in New York will continue this week.''

Bullion will probably fall further as weakening crude oil prices reduce the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge.

Gold fell to $781 an ounce in the morning ``fixing'' in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $795 at the previous afternoon fixing.

Among other metals for immediate delivery, silver gained 4 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $9.82 an ounce, platinum fell 10 cents to $898.40 an ounce and palladium slipped $2.25, or 1.2 percent, $180.75 an ounce.

Platinum rose to $887 an ounce in the morning fixing in London from $877 at the previous afternoon fixing. Palladium was unchanged at $182.

To contact the reporter on this story: Marianne Stigset in Oslo at mstigset@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Crude Oil Falls as Dollar's Gain Dims Appeal of Commodities

By Mark Shenk

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell as the U.S. dollar rose to its highest in more than a year against the euro, dimming the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge.

Oil climbed earlier on expectations that OPEC, supplier of 40 percent of the world's oil, will reduce output at a meeting in Vienna this week. Investors looking for protection against the dollar's decline earlier this year helped lead crude oil, gold, corn and gasoline to records.

``The strengthening of the dollar is the main factor pushing most commodities lower, and oil is always the leader,'' said James Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois. ``The Saudis will probably go along with a significant cut to maintain cohesion in the group.''

Crude oil for November delivery declined $2.50, or 3.4 percent, to $71.75 a barrel at 10:12 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which have tumbled 51 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 18 percent from a year ago.

The November contract expires today. The more-active December contract fell $2.08, or 2.8 percent, to $72.31 a barrel. The October oil contract rose by a record $16.37 a barrel when it expired on Sept. 22, as traders unwound positions and the dollar fell the most against the euro since January 2001.

Gold, copper and soybeans also fell today. Investors often sell crude and other dollar-priced commodities when the U.S. currency gains, undermining their use as an inflation hedge. The dollar climbed to $1.3154 against the euro, the strongest since March 2007, from $1.3344 yesterday in New York.

`Tight Corner'

``The cartel is in a tight corner,'' said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. ``They don't want to contribute to a further global economic slowdown. The Saudis for sure know that it's not in their interest to see this occur, so they may limit what they do immediately.''

Iran, OPEC's second-largest producer, said it favors a cut of between 2 million and 2.5 million barrels a day. Besides Iran, ministers from Algeria, Libya, and Qatar have said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will need to trim supplies when it gathers on Oct. 24 in Vienna.

Saudi Arabia, which dominates OPEC proceedings as the group's largest producer, has yet to comment on its intentions.

``Expectations of a substantial cut sent prices higher after the announcement of the meeting,'' said John Kilduff, senior vice president of risk management at MF Global Inc. in New York. ``The Saudi silence isn't boding well for an aggressive cut that's being called on by some members. The Saudis would probably have to make most of the cuts.''

Stockpile Increase

The U.S. Energy Department will probably report tomorrow that oil and gasoline supplies rose last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Crude-oil inventories climbed 2.65 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 17, according to the survey. It would be the fourth-straight weekly gain.

``Prices are also being hit by expectations about tomorrow's report,'' McGillian said. ``We are looking forward to further inventory builds as demand drops.''

Brent crude oil for December settlement fell $2.46, or 3.4 percent, to $69.57 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.



Read more...