Economic Calendar

Friday, November 11, 2011

Stocks Rise on Consumer Confidence, Italy Vote

By Rita Nazareth - Nov 11, 2011 11:33 PM GMT+0700

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Italy’s Senate approved debt-reduction measures today in an attempt to shore up investor confidence and pave the way for a new government that may be led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti. The Chamber of Deputies is expected to vote on the package tomorrow. David Tweed reports on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (Source: Bloomberg)


U.S. stocks rallied, preventing a weekly drop in benchmark indexes, as American consumer confidence topped estimates and Italy’s approval of debt- reduction plans eased concern about Europe’s debt crisis.

All 10 groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose as 491 stocks climbed. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (C) increased at least 3.1 percent as financial shares advanced. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Alcoa Inc. (AA) climbed more than 2.6 percent to pace gains among the biggest companies. Walt Disney Co. (DIS) jumped 7 percent as the biggest theme-park operator reported a 30 percent gain in profit, beating estimates.

The S&P 500 added 2.1 percent to 1,265.31 at 11:31 a.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge has risen 1 percent since Nov. 4, preventing a second weekly drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 271.74 points, or 2.3 percent, to 12,165.53.

“Things are starting to settle back in,” Philip Orlando, the New York-based chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc., said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees about $355 billion. “The expectation was that Italy and Greece were going out of business. That was overdone. We’re going to see some necessary austerity measures put in place,” he said. “In the U.S., the economic numbers have absolutely turned the corner and are starting to accelerate.”

Stocks extended gains as the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 64.2 this month, the highest since June. The median estimate of economists surveyed called for 61.5. Earlier gains were driven by a drop in Italian bonds yields as the Senate approved budget measures in a bid to allow for a new government. In Greece, Lucas Papademos, a former vice president of the European Central Bank, will be sworn in as premier of a unity government.

Not Derailed

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index jumped 2.9 percent as investors became more optimistic that the global economic recovery would not be derailed by Europe’s debt crisis. The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 2.8 percent, while the KBW Bank Index gained 2.6 percent. Bank of America added 4.2 percent to $6.28, while Citigroup advanced 3.1 percent to $29.52. Caterpillar increased 3.5 percent to $95.42. Alcoa rose 2.7 percent to $10.53.

Walt Disney climbed 7 percent to $37.08. Higher fees from pay-TV operators, advertising gains and improved results at resorts drove revenue and profit growth. Audience ratings for ESPN increased 13 percent in the quarter, according to Nielsen data provided by Barclays Capital. Disney resorts benefited from higher ticket prices and a new ship.

Single-Serve Brewers

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) rose 5.8 percent to $43.25. The largest U.S. seller of single-serve brewers plunged 39 percent yesterday, the most ever, after its sales trailed estimates. The stock had lost 63 percent since its peak in September, wiping out $11 billion of market value.

Molycorp Inc. (MCP) slumped 13 percent to $33.69. The owner of the largest rare-earth deposit outside China cut its 2011 production forecast and posted third-quarter profit and revenue that missed analysts’ estimates.

E*Trade Financial Corp. fell 3.3 percent to $9.17. The online brokerage’s board rejected putting the company up for sale following a strategic review spurred by Citadel LLC, the company’s biggest shareholder.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net



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Gold Traders Most Bullish Since ’04 on Debt Crisis

By Nicholas Larkin - Nov 11, 2011 9:30 PM GMT+0700

Gold traders and analysts are the most bullish in at least seven years as investors accumulate metal at the fastest pace since August to protect their wealth from a widening European debt crisis.

Twenty-one of 22 surveyed by Bloomberg expect bullion to rise on the Comex in New York next week, the third consecutive increase and the highest proportion in data going back to April 2004. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold rose 27.5 metric tons this week, within 1 percent of the record set almost three months ago, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Gold exceeded $1,800 an ounce for the first time in seven weeks on Nov. 8 and hedge funds are holding their biggest bet on higher prices since mid-September, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The metal is rebounding after tumbling as much as 20 percent in three weeks in September on demand for what are perceived as the safest assets. Almost $9 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities since May and yields on Italian and Greek bonds rose to euro-era records this week.

“Throughout history gold has protected people from the sort of turmoil that we’re seeing,” said Mark O’Byrne, the Dublin-based executive director of GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars. It’s “an important thing to own when there is this sort of volatility in stock markets and concern about currency devaluations.”

Gold climbed 24 percent to $1,768.50 this year, heading for an 11th consecutive annual advance. It’s the third-best performer behind gas oil and heating oil in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities, which rose 4.9 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities retreated 8.5 percent and Treasuries returned 8.6 percent, according to a Bank of America Corp. index.

Investor Concern

The gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 223 of 387 weeks, or 58 percent of the time.

While gold is benefiting from mounting investor concern that European nations will default on their debt, other commodities may drop because slower growth will curb demand for raw materials. Traders expect copper, raw sugar and soybeans to decline next week and are equally divided on corn, separate Bloomberg surveys showed.

The 27.5 tons of gold added to ETPs this week is the most since Aug. 19 and investors bought 40.9 tons this month, the most since July. Combined holdings of 2,312.1 tons are now valued at $131.5 billion and exceed the reserves of all but four central banks, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The record of 2,330 tons was set Aug. 18.

All-Time High

Money managers raised their combined net-long position in U.S. futures and options by 6.8 percent to 148,279 contracts in the week ended Nov. 1, CFTC data show. Wagers were a record 253,653 contracts in August, a month before prices climbed to an all-time high of $1,923.70.

Prices slumped in September as the decline in equity markets obliged some investors to sell their bullion to cover those losses. Global stocks slipped to the lowest level in almost three weeks yesterday.

“The major risk is that a sharp decline in global stock markets will lead to renewed margin calls and fund liquidations,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. That may prompt “many managers to sell gold, a highly liquid asset.”

Gold may reach $1,950 by the end of the first quarter, according to the median estimate of eight of the 10 most- accurate forecasters tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years. The survey was carried out at the end of October.

Technical Charts

Technical indicators suggest the rally that began in September has further to go. While gold jumped 15 percent since reaching an 11-week low Sept. 26, its 14-day relative-strength index is at 57, below the level of 70 that indicates to some who study technical charts that the metal is poised to drop.

Gold priced in euros is doing even better, rising 4.4 percent this month compared with a 2.5 percent gain for dollar- denominated bullion. Dennis Gartman, the Suffolk, Virginia-based economist and editor of the Gartman Letter, owns gold priced in euros and wrote yesterday that it reduces volatility.

Commodities as measured by the S&P GSCI gauge are heading for their weakest performance since 2008. Demand for everything from crude oil to aluminum to wheat contracted that year as nations contended with the worst global recession since World War II. The International Monetary Fund is anticipating no return to that slump, forecasting economic growth of 4 percent in 2012, unchanged from this year.

Eleven of 21 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect copper to fall next week. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, declined 21 percent to $7,540 a ton this year.

Nine Surveyed

Raw-sugar futures dropped 12 percent since reaching a one- month high on Oct. 17 to 24.98 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Prices declined 22 percent this year. Six of nine people surveyed expect prices to drop next week.

Eighteen of 30 surveyed anticipate declines in soybeans. Out of 29 corn traders and analysts, 11 said prices will rise and the same amount predicted a retreat. Corn increased 2.7 percent to $6.46 a bushel in Chicago this year, while soybeans fell 16 percent to $11.7175 a bushel.

“At the moment, it seems that everything is dependent on the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone,” said Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “If it’s escalating we will probably see much lower commodity prices in general. Gold should still be well supported.”

Gold survey results: Bullish: 21 Bearish: 1 Hold: 0 Copper survey results:  Bullish: 9 Bearish: 11 Hold: 1 Corn survey results: Bullish: 11 Bearish: 11 Hold: 7 Soybean survey results: Bullish: 8 Bearish: 18 Hold: 4 Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 6 Hold: 1 White sugar survey results: Bullish: 3 Bearish: 5 Hold: 1 White sugar premium results: Widen: 2 Narrow: 4 Neutral: 3 

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net




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Stocks Gain as Europe Acts on Debt Crisis

By Stephen Kirkland and Rita Nazareth - Nov 11, 2011 10:45 PM GMT+0700

Stocks rose, preventing a weekly decline for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and commodities climbed as American consumer confidence improved and Europe took steps to address its debt crisis. Italy’s bonds gained and oil reached a three-month high.

The MSCI All-Country World Index increased 2.1 percent at 10:42 a.m. in New York, after falling 3.1 percent in the past two days. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 1.9 percent, pushing it up 0.8 percent for the week and 0.5 percent in 2011. The euro appreciated 0.9 percent to $1.3730. The yield on the Italian 10-year bond declined 40 basis points. Oil in New York approached $99 a barrel.

U.S. equities extended an early rally after confidence among consumers topped estimates in November, bolstering optimism before the holiday shopping season. Italy’s Senate approved debt-reduction measures, paving the way for a new government led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti, while Greece will swear in Lucas Papademos to head a unity government.

“Things are starting to settle back in,” Philip Orlando, the New York-based chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc., said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees about $355 billion. “The expectation was that Italy and Greece were going out of business. That was overdone. We’re going to see some necessary austerity measures put in place,” he said. “In the U.S., the economic numbers have absolutely turned the corner and are starting to accelerate.”

The S&P 500 rose for a second day, adding to an advance yesterday triggered by a drop in jobless claims and a retreat in Italian bond yields from records.

Disney Surges

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) surged 7.9 percent to lead gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after fourth-quarter earnings per share exceeded estimates on growth in cable TV and U.S. resorts. Bank of America Corp. and Boeing Co. climbed more than 3 percent as all 30 Dow stocks increased.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment climbed to 64.2 this month, the highest since June, from 60.9 in October. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a reading of 61.5.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2.2 percent as all 19 industries advanced. A gauge of European banks rebounded 3.2 percent following two days of losses as BNP Paribas SA of France and the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc jumped more than 6 percent. Telecom Italia SpA gained 5.6 percent after third- quarter profit beat analysts’ estimates.

Yield Spreads

The extra yield investors demand to hold Italy’s 10-year debt instead of German bunds, Europe’s benchmark government securities, dropped 46 basis points after climbing to a euro-era record 575 basis points two days ago. The French-German spread narrowed 14 basis points after S&P corrected an erroneous message to subscribers yesterday that suggested the nation’s AAA credit rating had been lowered.

The Greek two-year yield rose to a record of 111 percent. The cost of insuring European sovereign debt fell, with the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit-default swaps on 15 governments dropping 9.8 basis points to 334.

The euro strengthened against 10 of its 16 major counterparts. The U.S. currency fell against all 16, with the Dollar Index dropping 0.9 percent.

West Texas Intermediate oil climbed as much as 1.2 percent to $98.93 a barrel, the highest since July. Copper rose 2.1 percent. China, the biggest buyer of industrial metals, will focus on domestic growth to boost the world economy, Vice Finance Minister Wang Jun said in Honolulu.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 1.7 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong advanced 1.3 percent, Hungary’s BUX jumped 4 percent and Brazil’s Bovespa gained 2.1 percent. The Kospi Index (KOSPI) rose 2.8 percent after South Korea left interest rates unchanged, while India’s Sensitive Index lost 1 percent as the nation’s factory output slowed. Funds investing in developing-nation stocks took in $2.1 billion in the week ended Nov. 9, Citigroup Inc. said, citing data compiled by EPFR Global.

To contact the reporters on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net





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MF Global Customers: Few Options to Access Cash

By Tiffany Kary - Nov 11, 2011 11:03 PM GMT+0700

Ted Monjure, a 48-year-old Manhattan trader who has $27,252 frozen in a former MF Global Inc. account, said he is considering pulling his money out of his three other trading accounts.

“I’m a high net-worth person, and I don’t want to see $1 million get smoked by another misunderstanding,” Monjure said, recounting how he’d thought the Securities Investor Protection Corp. covered any losses due to a meltdown such as that at MF Global. He’s now been told SIPC may not cover the money because it was in a futures account and faces months of uncertainty as he files a claim seeking recoveries.

Monjure is one of many customers who can’t access cash in the segregated accounts they once thought were safer than bank deposits and just as accessible. Frustrated by a lack of legal options to reclaim frozen funds and dead-end inquiries to call centers and hotlines since MF Global’s Oct. 31 bankruptcy, many are not able to trade and say they’ve lost faith in retail brokerages and the regulatory system.

More than 150,000 customer accounts were frozen Oct. 31, with $5.45 billion affected, the day after a unit of the New York-based brokerage reported a “material shortfall” in customer funds that are required to be segregated under rules of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Collapse

MF Global listed $39.7 billion in debt and $41 billion in assets and said it has about $26 million in cash in its Oct. 31 filing. Jon Corzine, the former co-chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), quit as MF Global’s CEO on Nov. 4. CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler has recused himself from the agency’s investigation.

About $593 million of MF customer funds are unaccounted for, according to a person with knowledge of regulatory probes into the firm’s collapse.

SIPC is a private, government-sponsored company that insures brokerage accounts for up to $500,000 in securities, as much as $250,000 of which may be in cash, in case the brokerage firm goes bankrupt. While SIPC covers losses in stocks and bonds, it doesn’t cover commodity futures contracts unless defined as specific property under certain conditions.

While the brokerage’s parent, MF Global Holdings Inc., filed for bankruptcy to apportion returns to creditors, a trustee, James W. Giddens, took over to liquidate the brokerage.

Mayhem

MF Global’s bankruptcy, the eighth largest ever, is causing mayhem for customers that may exceed that suffered by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s brokerage customers. Though Lehman’s bankruptcy, the largest in U.S. history, sent the world financial system into a tailspin, at least its brokerage customers benefitted from Barclays Plc’s takeover of its accounts on Lehman’s second day in court.

A transfer of MF Global’s accounts to qualified clearing firms began almost immediately, with a lawyer for Giddens saying accounts with open positions would be moved with 60 percent of their collateral, leaving 40 percent to MF Global or other parties who might have legal claim to it. As of Nov. 10, dozens of customers had said they still hadn’t gotten their funds, and ICE, or IntercontinentialExchange Inc. had written a letter to the bankruptcy court asking for immediate release of customer cash.

Giddens told commodities customers he can’t let them have any more of their collateral go until a probe into the “complex cash movements” at the defunct brokerage establishes the size of any shortfall.

“We didn’t think we were just customers,” said David Rosen, a 32-year-old energy broker who works at the New York Mercantile Exchange. “We’re the ones in the pits providing liquidity so everyone around the world can trade these products.”

Organizing

Rosen is organizing exchange members to consider their legal options, and said his group will look to recover money from the bankrupt estate before considering who else they might be able to sue.

The CME said in court papers it has $2.5 billion of MF Global’s total $5.45 billion in customer segregated funds on deposit. The effect of frozen collateral has already been felt; Volume for agricultural futures contracts traded on the CME and CBOT was 705,273 on Oct. 31, less than the 867,591 30-day average, and down 71,106 from the prior day.

“Though many of the decisions going forward are beyond our control we are working very closely with the regulators and the Trustee to represent our customers’ interests,” said CME spokesman Michael Shore.

Stampede

A stampede to pull funds out of collateral accounts or a boycott of the exchanges could ripple through the markets, affecting farmers as well as hedge funds, said Ashmead Pringle, president of Grain Service Corp., an introducing broker for grain elevator operators who are looking to hedge against price fluctuations with futures contracts. Grain Service Corp. has filed court papers seeking information about MF Global’s liquidation on behalf of its clients.

James L. Koutoulas, chief executive of Typhon Capital Management in Chicago, said his fund has lost one client who wasn’t a customer of MF Global, and most others are in limbo because their funds -- totaling $55 million -- are tied up. Koutoulas, a lawyer, is working with Northwestern University law professor J. Samuel Tenenbaum on behalf of any MF Global clients and hopes to put together a group that can seek representation on the five-person creditors committee along with JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wilmington Trust and Elliott Management Corp., all of whom have interests are averse to those of customers.

No, Wait

“If there’s a dispute as to whether it’s house or client money and five people are saying it’s the house’s money, we need someone there to say ‘No, wait. Maybe it’s the client’s money and our money is at risk,” Koutoulas said.

Timothy Butler, a lawyer whose filed a lawsuit on behalf of three commodities traders seeking the return of 85 percent of their $2.5 million in combined frozen funds, said he’s taking on new clients and hopes if his suit is successful it will recover that amount for all customers with all-cash accounts. Because the $593 million shortfall is about 11 percent, customers should be able to get 85 percent back up front, he said.

Butler has requested that U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Martin Glenn in Manhattan lift the so-called stay that protects companies in bankruptcy from lawsuits and other actions that can let one creditor withdraw money before another. Butler said customers of the brokerage unit should come before all other creditors, as their money was held in supposedly segregated accounts. Butler’s request will be heard Nov. 22.

Shortfall

Giddens has said he can’t release funds immediately because the trustee’s job is to distribute assets equally among all customers. Kent Jarrell, a spokesman for Giddens, said the trustee simply doesn’t have the authority to make transfers until its teams of forensic accountants have confirmed whether the shortfall is greater or less than $593 million.

Even when forensic accountants have located money, there may still be disputes among clearinghouses and banks about whose it rightfully is, Jarrell said.

“We can’t give out money we won’t have at the end of the game,” he said.

Legal obstacles to quick recovery of the frozen cash could also include concern about whether some customers aren’t entitled to be repaid as much as others, and customers who transferred money out of their accounts prior to the bankruptcy could be subject to clawback rules, Butler noted.

Cash Locked Up

Those like Monjure who liquidated their positions on the day of the Oct. 31 bankruptcy to avoid a drawn-out recovery process, said they feel aggrieved because they had to sell at a loss and can’t get any of their cash. Customers who still had open positions have been transferred to new brokerages with about 60 percent of their cash collateral, and now face margin calls for the rest, which is locked up at the MF Global accounts.

Jarrell said customers with open accounts were transferred while those with all cash accounts were not because, “moving the open positions could avoid market disruptions and allow customers to have some sort of choice of what to do with the positions.”

“We can’t distribute cash because we have to know what the amount of segregated cash held for customers is and verify the claims against that pool of segregated cash,” he said.

Legal options are less clear for those who have not just frozen cash, but margin calls, Butler said; “people can’t understand how the new margin is being calculated. Some people say they’re getting less than 60 percent transferred, others say they’re getting 80 percent,” he said.

Prudence Doesn’t Pay

The people who were most prudent are being hurt the worst, said Don Miller, 50, a member of the CME since 2004 who works remotely from his home in the Boston area and has more than $2 million at risk, including his business and retirement accounts.

“Some people put a little in for margin, those of us who don’t believe in excessive leverage put more in for our activity in the course of providing market liquidity than we need,” Miller said. “Because of the segregated aspect, that money is supposed to be safer than with a bank.”

“My trading business and my life have come to a complete stop,” said Miller, who has a $30,000 college bill for his daughter coming due.

Sacred Cow

The CME reviewed MF Global’s accounts the week of Oct. 24, and found them to be in compliance. MF Global didn’t report any transfers until early morning Oct. 31, suggesting the firm “made subsequent transfers of customer segregated funds in a manner that may have been designed to avoid detection,” according to a CME statement on Nov. 2.

Regulations allowed MF Global to use funds in the segregated accounts for certain investments only, with the CME performing audits to check that the invested funds met segregation requirements. CFTC rule 1.20 says, “All customer funds shall be separately accounted for and segregated as belonging to commodity or option customers.” Rule 1.25 lists acceptable investments, which include foreign sovereign debt. When MF Global filed for bankruptcy, it cited credit rating downgrades tied to its $6.3 billion investments in European sovereign debt.

Corzine, a former Democratic governor and senator from New Jersey, who met with CFTC officials four times in the last year or so, according to Gabriela Schneider of the Sunlight Foundation in Washington, had been critical of the CFTC about proposals that would tighten restrictions on how customer funds could be invested.

Too Granular

“We have made this clear in our comment letters to the CFTC that they may be too granular, i.e. 5 percent concentration limits, we suspect to on repo might be too damaging, and very, very costly to implement for a lot of folks, not just for us,” Corzine said in a July 28 conference call with analysts.

“The clock’s ticking,” said Kurt Schacht, managing director in the market integrity division of the CFA Institute, the largest association of investment professionals. “Whether there’s a crisis of confidence depends on how this one turns out -- a lot of people in this country view their money in a money market account, at a depository institution as safe and protected.”

Schacht, 57, who said he lost money with MF Global, called the experience “humbling” given his role, and his 25 years of trading with MF Global and its predecessor.

Schacht said he hasn’t been able to find out what exactly SIPC will guarantee. “There’s no one you can actually talk to get it figured out,” said Schacht, who described finally getting through to a live person on a hotline only to find they could answer only pre-set questions.

Even with his role in developing ethical standards for investors, Schacht says he doesn’t see an easy explanation of what went wrong or how to prevent it from happening again. “I think we need to figure out what happened before we come up with a safeguard against this.”

The bankruptcy case is MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF), 11-bk- 15059, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan). The brokerage case is In re MF Global Inc., 11-ap- 2790, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

To contact the reporter on this story: Tiffany Kary in New York at tkary@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Pickering at jpickering@bloomberg.net





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Facebook near privacy settlement with FTC: report

SAN FRANCISCO | Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:18am EST

(Reuters) - Facebook is finalizing a settlement with federal regulators over changes to its privacy policies enacted two years ago, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The proposed settlement with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission would resolve charges by privacy advocates that Facebook engaged in deceptive behavior.

The settlement, which is awaiting final approval by commissioners, would require Facebook to obtain consent from its users for "material retroactive changes," according to the Journal report on Thursday citing anonymous sources. And it would subject Facebook to independent privacy audits for 20 years, the report said.

Facebook and the FTC declined to comment.

The settlement would follow a similar agreement between the FTC and Web search leader Google Inc in March. In 2010 the FTC settled charges with Twitter, which alleged that the social networking service had failed to safeguard its users' personal information.

Facebook, the world's No. 1 Internet social network with more than 800 million users, has often been criticized for its privacy practices.

The FTC complaints against Facebook were brought by a group of privacy advocacy organizations after the social network introduced new privacy settings in 2009. The changes required that certain personal profile information, such as a person's gender and the city they reside in, be viewable to everyone. Previously, Facebook users could limit the people to which that information was visible.

(Reporting by Alexei Oreskovic; Editing by Richard Chang)





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Apple releases iPhone battery drain software fix


Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:18am EST

(Reuters) - Apple Inc on Thursday released a software update for its iOS 5 operating system to fix complaints on the performance of the new iPhone 4S battery.

Apple, after facing a rash of complaints on the new phone's short battery life, had promised earlier to release an update to address the issue.


The software update also addresses some security issues, including a flaw in the operating system that may allow hackers to build apps that secretly install programs to steal data. (Reporting by Poornima Gupta in San Francisco)




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Telefonica Posts Loss on Spain Slide, Slowdown in Latin America

By Manuel Baigorri - Nov 11, 2011 8:36 PM GMT+0700

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Otto Waser, chief investment officer at R&A Research & Asset Management AG, talks about European corporate earnings, investment strategy and recommendation of Swatch Group AG, SAP AG, International Business Machines Corp., Apache Corp. and Telefonica SA. He speaks from Zurich with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Charlotte Patrick, principal analyst at Gartner Inc.'s Carrier Strategy team, talks about the outlook for technology and telecommunication companies. She speaks with Caroline Hyde and Elliott Gotkine on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)


Telefonica SA (TEF), Europe’s largest phone company by market value, reported its first quarterly loss in nine years on costs to eliminate jobs and lower revenue from Spain as customers switched to cheaper rivals’ offers.

The third-quarter net loss was 429 million euros ($584 million), weighed down by 2.6 billion euros in job-cut expenses, Madrid-based Telefonica said today. Analysts had predicted a loss of 213 million euros, according to the average estimate of 11 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

Chief Executive Officer Cesar Alierta is slashing the operator’s Spanish workforce, halting major mergers and acquisitions and cutting debt to revive investor confidence. Telefonica’s stock is down 18 percent this year, compared with a 10 percent decline in the Bloomberg Europe Telecommunications Index.

Telefonica’s sales in its home market slid 8.8 percent to 4.31 billion euros from a year earlier, while total sales climbed 3.7 percent to 15.79 billion euros.

The company has suffered “a slowdown in Spain, where prices are very high, it’s doing less well relative to peers in the U.K. and Germany than it has historically, and now there are fears about Latin America also slowing down and currencies going against them,” Robin Bienenstock, a London-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd said today in a Bloomberg television interview.

‘Growth Story Over’

Telefonica rose 0.7 percent to 13.95 euros at 2:32 p.m. in Madrid.

Alierta is counting on economic growth in Latin America, which accounts for 47 percent of sales, to win back investors discouraged by Spain’s unemployment rate, the highest in the euro zone. The Spanish economy stalled in the third quarter, with gross domestic product unchanged from the previous quarter, when it expanded 0.2 percent, undermining the country’s efforts to shield itself from the sovereign debt crisis.

Telefonica’s sales in Latin America climbed 18 percent to 7.4 billion euros. Operating income before depreciation and amortization dropped 59 percent to 2.58 billion euros as last year’s figures were boosted by a gain related to the company’s 7.5 billion-euro purchase of a controlling stake in Brazil’s Vivo Participacoes SA.

Sales in Brazil climbed 35 percent to 3.6 billion euros in the quarter, compared with a 40 percent increase in the second quarter. In Mexico, sales dropped 16 percent to 377 million euros from 450 million euros a year earlier.

Latin America

“Latin American numbers were worse than expected, especially in Mexico and Brazil,” said Francisco Salvador, a strategist at FGA/MG Valores in Madrid. “This is a tough year for Telefonica.”

In September, Alierta folded Telefonica’s domestic unit into its European division and shuffled regional chiefs, putting Jose Maria Alvarez-Pallete in charge of Europe and giving Santiago Fernandez Valbuena responsibility for Latin America. Telefonica also created a digital division in London run by Matthew Key.

Telefonica’s mobile-phone market share in Spain slipped to 40.47 percent in September from 40.65 percent in August, according to the country’s telecommunications market regulator. France Telecom SA (FTE)’s Orange unit and TeliaSonera AB (TLSN)’s Yoigo division gained market share. Fixed-line rival Jazztel last month reported net income that almost doubled from a year earlier.

The situation of the business in Spain remains “complicated,” Alvarez-Pallete told reporters Nov. 3 in Madrid, as the company slashed broadband rates.

Targets

Telefonica today reiterated its full-year financial and dividend targets. The company said in April that it plans to pay a 2012 dividend of at least 1.75 euros per share.

Alierta told investors in April that revenue will grow 1 percent to 4 percent annually through 2013 from an adjusted base of 63.1 billion euros in 2010. Operating margin before depreciation and amortization will be in the “upper 30’s” in percentage terms, falling from 38 percent in 2010.

Telefonica last reported a quarterly loss for the final three months of 2002.

To contact the reporters on this story: Manuel Baigorri in Madrid at mbaigorri@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kenneth Wong at kwong11@bloomberg.net



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European Stocks Advance After Italian Senate Approves Austerity Package

By Corinne Gretler - Nov 11, 2011 8:04 PM GMT+0700

European stocks advanced after the Italian Senate approved an austerity package, raising optimism that the euro area’s second-most indebted country will contain the debt crisis. U.S. index futures and Asian shares rose.

Telecom Italia SpA (TIT) gained 4.7 percent after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. Banks and insurers rallied. International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, the company created by the merger of British Airways and Spain’s Iberia, jumped 5.2 percent.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.8 percent to 237.21 at 12:30 p.m. in London, on optimism the vote will be followed by a new government led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti. The gauge has still lost 1.1 percent so far this week as surging bond yields in Italy and France fueled concern the crisis is spreading. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in December rose 0.8 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index also added 0.8 percent today.

“In the eyes of financial markets, Mario Monti seems to be the best possible choice at present,” said Alessandro Fezzi, senior market analyst at LGT Capital Management in Pfaeffikon, Switzerland. “He might even win back market confidence. Even so, the success of the painful reforms is by no means guaranteed and financial markets will soon test the new government.”

Senate Vote

The Senate in Rome voted 156 to 12 to pass the package of measures promised to the European Union in a bid to boost growth and cut Italy’s debt of 1.9 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion), the world’s fourth biggest. Opposition lawmakers did not take part in the vote, allowing the bill to pass.


In Greece, a new unity government led by Lucas Papademos will be sworn in today with a mandate to implement budget measures and decisions related to a 130 billion-euro bailout agreed on an Oct. 26. Elections may take place on Feb. 19.

“The new great white hopes in Athens and Rome are likely to receive early praise from the markets,” Fezzi said. “But how long it will last is uncertain.”

About 48 percent of the 291 companies in the Stoxx 600 that have reported earnings since Oct. 11 topped analysts’ estimates for per-share profit, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About 44 percent missed the projections.

“European earnings were rather mixed,” Otto Waser, chief investment officer at Research & Asset Management AG, told Bloomberg Television from Zurich. “We’re incrementally encouraged by the guidance for the current quarter of the companies. On average, earnings were more supportive than we thought six weeks ago.”

U.S. Consumer Confidence

A report at 9:55 a.m. today in New York may show U.S. consumer sentiment increased this month. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment survey for November probably climbed for a third month, rising to 61.5 from 60.9 last month, according to the median of 67 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Telecom Italia jumped 4.7 percent to 88.6 euro cents after third-quarter net income surged 33 percent to 807 million euros, beating analysts’ estimates for 708.5 million euros.

National Bank of Greece SA (ETE) and Alpha Bank SA led a gauge of European banks higher, surging 4.4 percent to 2.13 euros and 4.8 percent to 1.10 euros, respectively.

Schroders Plc (SDR), the U.K.’s largest publicly traded money manager by market value, climbed 5.1 percent to 1,371 pence after Carolyn Dorrett, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG, raised the stock to “hold” from “sell.”

Insurers Gain

Allianz SE (ALV), Europe’s biggest insurer, rose 4.1 percent to 75.19 euros after saying it is “ready to take a closer look” at assets such as mortgages that some troubled banks may sell. The company posted a bigger-than-estimated 84 percent drop in third-quarter profit after writing down Greek government debt and investments in financial companies.

Mapfre SA gained 4 percent to 2.55 euros as a gauge of European insurers was among the best performers of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600. Aegon NV added 2.9 percent to 3.27 euros.

IAG jumped 5.2 percent to 149.10 euros after saying it targets an operating profit of about 1.5 billion euros in 2015.

SMA Solar Technology AG (S92), Germany’s biggest solar-power company by market value, rallied 6.6 percent to 48.43 euros after reporting earnings and sales that beat analysts’ estimates.

The company reported a third-quarter net income of 52.9 million euros and sales of 477 million euros. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey had called for a profit of 48 million euros profit and sales of 423 million euros.

Schibsted Cost Cuts

Schibsted ASA (SCH) climbed 3.5 percent to 140.30 kroner, the biggest jump in two weeks. The company said it will implement cost cuts of 190 million kroner ($33 million) to 210 million kroner for the Scandinavian newspaper operations. The measures in Norway and Sweden will imply restructuring charges of about 200 million kroner, probably during the fourth quarter of this year, the company said.

Societe Television Francaise 1 (TFI), the operator of France’s most-watched TV channel, plunged 15 percent to 7.67 euros, the largest decline since February 2009, after third-quarter net income dropped to 6.6 million euros from 95.5 million euros a year earlier. The company said it expects full-year revenue to decrease 1 percent.

Galp Energia SGPS, Portugal’s largest oil company, slumped 12 percent to 13.07 euros, its biggest decline in almost three years, after an agreement to sell a 30 percent stake in its Brazil unit to China’s Sinopec Group for $3.54 billion.

To contact the reporter on this story: Corinne Gretler in Zurich at cgretler1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net



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Pound Weakens Second Day Versus Euro Amid Optimism Over Italy, Greek Plans

By Lucy Meakin - Nov 11, 2011 8:54 PM GMT+0700

The pound weakened for the second day versus the euro amid optimism European officials are taking steps to address the region’s debt crisis.

Sterling declined against the dollar as data showed U.K. factory output prices were unchanged in October as costs for chemicals, pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment dropped. Italy’s Senate voted for debt-reduction measures in an attempt to boost investor confidence while Greece will swear in a new unity government, led by former European Central Bank vice president Lucas Papademos. European stocks rose.

“The U.K. has been deemed somewhat as a safe haven within Europe,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “We’re slightly more stable in euroland again. What we’ve seen this morning is the euro rallying quite sharply against the pound. That’s causing the pound to be weak across the board because of the buying of the euro against the pound.”

The pound weakened 0.3 percent to 85.69 pence per euro, extending yesterday’s 0.4 percent decline and bound for a 0.4 percent weekly advance. Sterling was little changed at $1.5942, on course to match last week’s 0.6 percent drop. The British currency slid 0.4 percent to 123.25 yen.

It was lower against all but one of 16 major peers tracked by Bloomberg, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.1 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index (UKX) rose 0.9 percent.

Manufacturing Prices

The cost of goods at U.K. factory gates was flat on the month and the annual rate of manufacturing inflation eased to 5.7 percent from 6.3 percent in September, according to data today. That’s the slowest annual pace since May. Separate data showed construction output fell 0.2 percent in the third quarter, which compares with a drop of 0.6 estimated in gross domestic product data.

The pound has appreciated 1.4 percent in the past month, making it the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes.

U.K. benchmark government bonds fell, with the 10-year gilt yield three basis points higher at 2.26 percent. The 3.75 percent security due September 2021 declined 0.310, 3.10 pounds per 1,000 pound face amount to 113.035. Two-year notes yielded 0.53 percent.

Gilts have returned 14 percent this year, indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies show. German bunds rose 8.9 percent, while Italian securities lost 9.3 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lucy Meakin in London at lmeakin1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Tilles at dtilles@bloomberg.net.




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Italy Senate Passes Budget Measures

By Alessandra Migliaccio and Lorenzo Totaro - Nov 11, 2011 7:54 PM GMT+0700

Italy’s Senate approved debt- reduction measures in an attempt to shore up investor confidence and pave the way for a new government that may be led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti.

The Senate in Rome voted today 156 to 12 to pass the package of measures promised to the European Union in a bid to boost growth and cut Italy’s debt of 1.9 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion), the world’s fourth biggest. Opposition lawmakers did not take part in the vote, allowing the bill to pass.

The timing of the ballot was moved forward after Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s parliamentary majority unraveled this week, leading bond yields to surge to euro-era records. The Chamber of Deputies will give final approval to the legislation tomorrow and Berlusconi will then resign “a minute later,” Chamber Speaker Gianfranco Fini said.

The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond declined for a second day, shedding 21 basis points to 6.67 percent at 1:17 p.m. Rome time, narrowing the difference with German bunds to 488 basis points. The 10-year yield surged on Nov. 8 across the 7 percent threshold that prompted Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts, as Berlusconi’s government unraveled. The FTSE MIB index gained 1.5 percent today, the biggest advance of any European benchmark.

Napolitano’s Role

Berlusconi, 75, offered to resign on Nov. 8 once the budget measures were approved. He came under pressure to step down after a series of defections left him without a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. President Giorgio Napolitano is charged with steering talks with political parties to try to muster support for a new government or call elections.

Opposition parties have indicated they would back a Monti government and Napolitano may complete the talks on Nov. 13 and immediately offer the position to Monti. Any new government formed through negotiations could not serve beyond the end of the current legislative term in April 2013.

Italy has a tradition at times of political crisis to reach outside of parliament for leadership to form a so-called technical government. Monti, 68, spent almost a decade in Brussels as EU commissioner and previously had broad backing in Italy. He was first appointed to the commission by Berlusconi in 1994 and was then confirmed by the opposition when it came to power after Berlusconi’s first government collapsed.

‘Best Candidate’

“Monti is by far the best candidate to lead a technocrat government, which is the only way out of Italy’s predicament,” James Walston, a professor of politics at the American University in Rome, wrote in an e-mailed message. The measures voted on today “will be a start, but then there will be difficult times, more cuts and greater hardships.”

Monti’s appointment still depends on getting backing from Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party. The party remains divided over whether to support a new government or seek early elections, and will meet tomorrow or Nov. 13 to make a decision, Transport Minister Altero Matteoli told reporters in Rome today.

“Even Berlusconi is not against elections, but he’s worried about the markets,” Matteoli said.

The austerity measures passed by the Senate today include a pledge to raise 15 billion euros from real-estate sales over the next three years, a two-year increase in the retirement age to 67 by 2026, opening up closed professions within 12 months and a gradual reduction in government ownership of local services.

Months of Squabbling

The budget measures were first pledged to EU allies at a summit on Oct. 26 and are aimed at convincing investors Italy can overhaul its economy to reduce borrowing. Months of squabbling within Berlusconi’s Cabinet over the plans helped unravel his majority and fueled the selloff of Italian debt.

“If they manage to get their problems under control the situation could stabilize,” said Heinrich Bayer, an economist at Deutsche Postbank in Bonn, Germany. “Italy has the potential to weather the turmoil but they’ve already wasted a lot of time. They need to act now.”

The EU has been stepping up the pressure on Italy to adopt the budget measures and has said the government’s economic forecasts are too optimistic. The European Commission said yesterday that Italy won’t make good on its pledge to balance the budget in 2013 and will finish that year with a deficit of 1.2 percent of gross domestic product. It also said that Italy’s recovery came to a standstill in the third quarter and the economy will probably contract in the final three months.

Deficit, Debt

The country’s deficit of 4.6 percent of GDP last year was similar to Germany’s at 4.3 percent and less than that of the U.K. and France. Italy also has a surplus in its primary budget, which excludes debt interest payments.

Still, debt at almost 120 percent of GDP and economic growth that has trailed the EU average for over a decade has unnerved investors shunning Europe’s riskiest assets.

“It’s clear that only a comprehensive and wide-ranging package of reforms can kick-start Italian growth again,” EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday. “The first and foremost thing for Italy is to restore political stability and capacity of decision making” as well as “firm and determined action” on fiscal targets.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alessandra Migliaccio in Rome at amigliaccio@bloomberg.net; Lorenzo Totaro in Rome at ltotaro@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net; Angela Cullen at acullen8@bloomberg.net




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Merkel Greek Gambit May Backfire as Euro Exit Routes Mapped

By Simon Kennedy - Nov 11, 2011 4:44 PM GMT+0700

Germany and France’s drive to force Greece to honor its euro commitments risks backfiring on Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Nicolas Sarkozy.

A week after the currency’s guardians declared for the first time that it is possible for the 17-nation bloc to shrink, U.S. stocks tumbled on concern German politicians are already creating exit chutes for the weakest members.

The sell-off suggests Europe’s crisis is spiraling into a new stage as investors bet on which countries are most likely to quit the euro, starting with Greece. The risk is that this will make it harder for debt-laden countries to convince investors they can get their finances in order and for policy makers such as Merkel, Sarkozy and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to bolster the euro’s defenses.

“This is a dangerous phase,” Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital in London and a former U.K. Treasury official, told Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move” with Francine Lacqua yesterday. “All of a sudden, we’re talking about the future of monetary union in its current format.”

U.S. stocks dropped late Nov. 9 as news broke that members of Merkel’s ruling Christian Democratic Union party plan to debate a motion next week, allowing countries to leave the euro region. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell as much as 1 percent. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index has lost 2.6 percent in the past two sessions.

Igniting Speculation

Stocks rose today as Europe took steps to address its woes with former central banker Lucas Papademos becoming Greece’s interim leader. Italy’s Senate votes today on debt-reduction measures, paving the way for a new government that may be led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti.

Merkel and Sarkozy ignited speculation that the euro area could contract near midnight on Nov. 2 in Cannes, France, when they warned outgoing Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou that a planned referendum on his country’s latest bailout must serve as a ballot on whether Greece wants to stay in the euro.

“The referendum will revolve around nothing less than the question: does Greece want to stay in the euro, yes or no?” Merkel said with Sarkozy beside her.

While the ploy worked and Papandreou shelved the referendum, it undermined the message of the euro’s founding treaty that membership was “irrevocable” -- a line Sarkozy and Merkel had stuck to in the two years since the crisis broke out.

No Escape

Sarkozy and Merkel opened a “Pandora’s Box,” said Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London, this week. He was referring to the Greek myth in which the first woman on earth disobeys orders of the gods by opening a jar and unleashing evil around the world, leaving only hope behind.

Countries unable to play by the euro’s rules may now have to leave the bloc, upending the assumption that “once in the euro a country could never escape,” King said in a note to clients. Now “what’s true of Greece may now also be true of Italy.”

Italian 10-year bond yields surged to a euro-era high of 7.46 percent Nov. 9 as investors questioned the ability of its lawmakers to restrain the euro-region’s second-largest debt load after Greece. While the yield slipped to 6.58 percent today, the crisis shows signs of spreading to France. Credit default swaps on the euro region’s second-largest economy rose eight basis points to a record 204 yesterday, CMA prices showed.

Deadly

Some politicians are already working on a plan to push out errant members that can’t get their finances in order. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union may adopt a motion at an annual party congress next week to allow euro members to exit the currency area, Norbert Barthle, the ranking CDU member on the German parliament’s budget committee, said.

The drive was dismissed by other members of Merkel’s party. Germany will resist any attempt to reduce the euro to its strongest members, the parliamentary finance spokesman for the CDU said yesterday. “Such a shrinking process would be deadly for Germany,” Michael Meister said in a telephone interview.

European Bailouts

Any pan-European appetite for a re-drawing of the euro’s boundaries may be on show Dec. 9 when leaders hold another summit, this time to discuss deepening euro-area convergence, tightening fiscal discipline and strengthening economic ties.

“They might be talking about an exit clause for the euro area after Greece,” said Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels.

It wouldn’t be the first time the strategy of Merkel and Sarkozy has ended up hurting rather than calming markets. Thirteen months ago, they agreed at the French resort of Deauville that private investors must contribute to future European bailouts. The resulting bond-market selloff played a part in Ireland and Portugal subsequently requiring bailouts.

Any change in composition would validate the opinions of academics and investors including Harvard University’s Martin Feldstein and Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.

Feldstein, who warned in a 1998 paper that monetary union would prove an “economic liability,” and El-Erian both say ensuring the euro’s existence may require a smaller, stronger bloc.

Eurogeddon?

A report last month from the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit, titled “After Eurogeddon?,” said any fracturing would likely leave the euro in the hands of a strong northern core featuring Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia and Estonia.

While France would suffer from a likely surge in the new euro, it would remain a member because its monetary union with Germany is fundamental to France’s political and economic interests, the report said. Greece would be first to leave followed eventually by Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Malta and Cyprus, it said.

“If they push out weaker countries and the euro stays, it would represent a smaller number of countries, so the currency should be stronger,” said Nicola Marinelli, who oversees $153 million at Glendevon King Asset Management in London. “But we don’t know the knock-on effects that could come from a country leaving so there would be a period of great uncertainty and weakness.”

Great Depression

European leaders will still do their utmost to keep the euro-zone in its current form, said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in London.

“Rather than break-up, the solution for Europe’s crisis will be more integration,” he said. “European officials, including Germany and France, in word and deed recognize the important of preserving the euro zone as currently constituted.”

A breakup could threaten a repeat of the Great Depression, HSBC’s King said in an analysis last month. For the exiting country, the banking system could face collapse, capital controls would be needed to stop citizens moving savings out of the country and companies would face default. On top of that, inflation would spiral, technical problems such as updating computer codes would be required and the accompanying departure from the European Union would leave it subject to trade tariffs, he said.

Turmoil could also spread to other debt-strapped nations, featuring bank runs “in countries perceived to be at risk of leaving,” Deutsche Bank AG chief economist Thomas Mayer told clients this week.

King says with banks in pain and restricting credit, the ECB would have little option but to inject a vast amount of liquidity and print money to buy potentially unlimited quantities of bonds.

“The seismic shift in European convictions presented in Cannes could come back to haunt its authors,” said Mayer.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Fraher at jfraher@bloomberg.net




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Invisible Bank Run Becomes Conversation With 7% Italy Yield

By John Glover and Elisa Martinuzzi - Nov 11, 2011 5:30 PM GMT+0700

Italy’s highest bond yields since the birth of the euro are reverberating through the financial system of Europe’s biggest debt issuer, driving lenders to seek record amounts of central bank financing.

Italian banks borrowed 111.3 billion euros ($152 billion) from the European Central Bank at the end of October, up from 104.7 billion euros in September and 41.3 billion euros in June, Bank of Italy data show. The five biggest lenders -- UniCredit SpA (UCG), Intesa Sanpaolo, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, Banco Popolare SC and UBI Banca ScpA -- accounted for 61 percent of the country’s use of ECB resources in September, almost double the share in January.

After punishing Greece, Ireland and Portugal for their rising debt loads, the bond market is now targeting Italy, pushing bonds yields in the euro zone’s third-largest economy above 7 percent as the nation’s lenders prepare to refinance $120 billion of debt maturing next year. Italy’s $2 trillion in liabilities exceed those three countries combined, plus Spain.

“The banks are deleveraging on a tightrope,” Alberto Gallo, a credit strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) in London, said in an interview. The slump in Italy’s bonds, which sent the 10-year yield soaring to as high as 7.48 percent Nov. 9, is reducing the value of fixed-income securities held by banks, eroding their value as collateral for loans, Gallo said.

Bill Rates

Bond investors charged the nation an interest rate of 6.087 percent yesterday to buy 5 billion euros of one-year bills, the highest in 14 years. Greece, Ireland and Portugal sought a bailout from the ECB, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund after their bond yields rose amid the region’s sovereign debt woes.

The crisis that’s engulfing Italy and other so-called peripheral countries is also spreading to Europe’s richer economies. Credit-default swaps protecting against a French default jumped to a record 203 basis points yesterday, before falling back to 200, according to CMA prices. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments was at 337 basis points, compared with an all-time high 358 on Sept. 23.

As Italy’s government faces collapse after Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi promised to resign once Parliament approves austerity measures, deputy finance ministers meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Hawaii this week expressed concern over the danger Europe poses to the world economy.

European ‘Firewall’

U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs Lael Brainard said European officials must speed up construction of a “firewall” to protect countries that have sound policies. The 17-nation euro has weakened 4 percent since Oct. 27.

International Monetary Fund fiscal monitors are due to visit the Italian capital, and European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn says he wants answers to “very specific questions” on economic pledges by the weekend. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said Italian interest rates are “getting to a totally unsustainable level.”

The extra yield investors demand to hold Italian 10-year debt rather than German bunds rose to a euro-era record 5.53 percentage points on Nov. 9 before falling back to 4.78 percentage points.

Italy’s top 32 banking firms have about 88 billion euros, or 3.2 percent of their liabilities, maturing in 2012, according to the Bank of Italy. Next year’s maturities coincide with about 307 billion euros of the government’s debt coming due, the most ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Broader Funding

Italian lenders are seeking to broaden their sources of funding. Corrado Passera, the chief executive officer of Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), said on Nov. 8 the bank can do without wholesale funding for all of next year, and rely on deposits and bonds it sells to individual customers.

Retail funding made up 54.1 percent of the Italian banking system’s total as of June, compared with 48.8 percent in the rest of the euro zone, according to the Bank of Italy.

The cost of that money increased 0.4 percentage point, or 40 basis points, to 1.7 percent in the nine months ended Sept. 30 as the funding mix shifted to products such as repurchase agreements and fixed-term deposits that pay clients more, central bank data show.

Italian banks’ share of ECB lending rose to about 19 percent of the total in October, according to the Bank of Italy. That’s up from 15 percent, or 91 billion euros, in September, the data show.

Likely Recession

“The Italian banks are trapped,” said Roger Doig, a London-based analyst at Schroders Plc, which manages about $58 billion in fixed-income assets. “They are where they are and that’s with the Italian sovereign. The austerity required if the sovereign wants to remain in the euro zone means there’s going to be a recession, which will mean losses for the banks.”

Default swaps tied to the senior debt of UniCredit, a proxy for the cost of funding at Italy’s biggest lender, jumped 150 basis points this month to 502 basis points, approaching the record 504 reached in September. Contracts on Intesa Sanpaolo, the second-largest, jumped 129 to 467, also close to an all-time high, according to CMA in London.

Five-year contracts on Italy rose to a record 571 basis points on Nov. 9, up from 445.5 at the end of last month and 239 at the beginning of 2011, according to CMA. The price was 556 basis points today.

Credit-default swaps typically decrease as investor confidence improves and rise as it deteriorates. They pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.

‘Assuming Italy Fails’

“The market is pricing in an Italy event and assuming that Italy fails,” said Patrick Lemmens, a senior money manager who helps oversee about $13 billion, including Intesa Sanpaolo shares, at Robeco Groep in Rotterdam.

Household deposits in Italy still are expanding “at a moderate pace,” according to the Bank of Italy. That’s a contrast to withdrawals seen in Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

The annual rate of decline in Irish private-sector deposits was 10.5 percent at the end of September, according to that nation’s central bank. In Greece, deposits fell 2.9 percent in September for a net outflow of 6.29 billion euros, the biggest one-month drop since the start of the crisis, according to Manos Giakoumis, research director at Euroxx Securities SA, an Athens- based brokerage.

Increasing Reliance

Italy’s lenders started increasing their reliance on the ECB in July, when end-of-month borrowings from the central bank minus the amount deposited reached 58.8 billion euros, according to John Raymond, an analyst at CreditSights Inc. in London. Before that, net borrowings from the ECB ranged from 9 billion euros to 30 billion euros, he said.

The amount surged to a record 87 billion euros at the end of October, according to Raymond, citing Bank of Italy figures.

“This is all symptomatic of what’s going on around the banks,” Raymond said. “Everything hinges on the sovereign.”

RBS economists forecast a recession in Italy in the fourth quarter, and expect the economy to contract 0.2 percent in 2012. The government’s austerity packages, totaling 124 billion euros and including cuts to health care, pensions and regional subsidies, are adding to the recession risk, said RBS’s Gallo.

Italian institutions can borrow what they need in the ECB’s refinancing operations, paying the current policy rate of 1.25 percent as long as they have the required collateral. Lenders have “ample availability” of ECB-eligible assets, according to the Frankfurt-based central bank, and can help themselves by ensuring the assets are suitable as security.

Intesa Sanpaolo said it’s looking to increase ECB-eligible assets to 100 billion euros from the current 83 billion euros.

The ability to fund at the ECB is vital for Italy’s banks that can’t access markets, though the central bank is keen to wean borrowers from its support. The ECB applies a discount on securities used as collateral to protect itself against loss.

“Italian banks have been crushed in the carnage in the government bond market,” said Suki Mann, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “It could get worse.”

To contact the reporters on this story: John Glover in London at johnglover@bloomberg.net; Elisa Martinuzzi at emartinuzzi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Armstrong at parmstrong10@bloomberg.net; Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net




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Global Markets Flicker Optimism And Uncertainty

By Stephen Kirkland and Lynn Thomasson - Nov 11, 2011 8:24 PM GMT+0700

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Brendan Brown, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International Plc, discusses the sovereign-debt crisis and the possibility and consequences of a break-up of the euro zone. He speaks with Linzie Janis and Linda Yueh on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Jenny Tian, managing director at Springs Capital Ltd., talks about the potential for intervention by the Chinese government in the European sovereign-debt crisis, and investment strategy. Tian speaks in Hong Kong with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Quinn, chief European equity strategist at Standard & Poor's Capital IQ, discusses the outlook for stocks. He talks from London with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Ian Stannard, head of European foreign-exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley, talks about the outlook for the euro amid political instability in Greece and Italy. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)

Stocks rose, trimming a second week of declines, and U.S. index futures climbed as Europe took steps to address its debt crisis. Italy’s bonds gained and oil reached a three-month high.

The MSCI All-Country World Index increased 0.7 percent at 8:20 a.m. in New York, after falling 3.1 percent in the past two days. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures advanced 1.1 percent. The euro appreciated 0.4 percent to $1.3659. The yield on the Italian 10-year bond declined 27 basis points. Oil in New York approached $100 a barrel.

Italy’s Senate approved a key-budget bill today, paving the way for a new government led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti, while Greece will swear in Lucas Papademos to head a unity government. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said yesterday Europe’s plan to deal with its crisis is a “good framework.” American consumer confidence probably rose for a third month, economists said before a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan report.

“Progress in the formation of new governments in Italy and Greece could support optimism,” fixed-income strategists at UniCredit SpA led by Michael Rottmann in Munich wrote in an investor note today. “However, uncertainty remains high.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.3 percent as all 19 industries advanced. A gauge of European banks rebounded 1.6 percent from two days of losses as BNP Paribas SA of France, the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and the National Bank of Greece SA jumped more than 4 percent. Telecom Italia SpA gained 5.2 percent after third-quarter profit beat analysts’ estimates.

Disney Earnings

The advance in U.S. index futures signaled the S&P 500 will rise for a second day. Walt Disney Co. (DIS) increased 3.7 percent in pre-market trading after the owner of Mickey Mouse and Marvel Entertainment LLC posted fourth-quarter earnings per share that exceeded estimates. A report from Reuters/University of Michigan, scheduled for 9:55 a.m. New York time, may show that consumer confidence increased in November, according to a survey of 67 economists. Trading in U.S. Treasuries was closed for the Veterans’ Day holiday.

The extra yield investors demand to hold Italy’s 10-year debt instead of German bunds, Europe’s benchmark government securities, dropped 31 basis points after climbing to a euro-era record 575 basis points two days ago. The French-German spread narrowed two basis points after S&P corrected an erroneous message to subscribers yesterday that suggested the nation’s AAA credit rating had been lowered.

Euro-Era High

The Greek two-year yield rose to a euro-era high of 110.80 percent. The cost of insuring European sovereign debt fell, with the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit-default swaps on 15 governments dropping four basis points to 340.

The euro strengthened against 11 of its 16 major counterparts. The U.S. currency fell against a majority of its peers, with the Dollar Index dropping 0.4 percent.

West Texas Intermediate oil climbed as much as 0.8 percent to $98.53 a barrel, the highest since Aug. 1. Copper rose 0.5 percent. China, the biggest buyer of industrial metals, will focus on domestic growth to boost the world economy, Vice Finance Minister Wang Jun said in Honolulu.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 1.2 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong advanced 1.3 percent, Hungary’s BUX jumped 1.9 percent and Brazil’s Bovespa gained 1.4 percent. The Kospi Index (KOSPI) rose 2.8 percent after South Korea left interest rates unchanged, while India’s Sensitive Index lost 1 percent as the nation’s factory output slowed. Funds investing in developing-nation stocks took in $2.1 billion in the week ended Nov. 9, Citigroup Inc. said, citing data compiled by EPFR Global.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net;

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in Hong Kong at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.






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Italy Senate Vote to Make Way for Coalition Government Led by Mario Monti

By Alessandra Migliaccio - Nov 11, 2011 6:19 PM GMT+0700

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Italy's Senate will vote on debt-reduction measures today in an attempt to shore up investor confidence and pave the way for a new government. David Tweed reports on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown" with Linzie Janis. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Salvatore Zecchini, a professor of economic policy at Rome's Tor Vergata University, discusses the potential challenges facing former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti if he's selected to oversee a caretaker government in Italy. Zecchini talks with David Tweed in Rome on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)


Italy’s Senate will vote on debt- reduction measures today in an attempt to shore up investor confidence and pave the way for a new government that may be led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti.

The Senate will vote on a package of measures promised to the European Union aimed at boosting growth and cutting Italy’s debt of 1.9 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion), the world’s fourth biggest. Lawmakers rushed to pass the measures after Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s parliamentary majority unraveled this week, leading bond yields to surge to euro-era records.

The upper house has started debating the measures, with a vote likely around 1:00 p.m. The Chamber of Deputies will give final approval tomorrow and Berlusconi will resign “a minute later,” Chamber Speaker Gianfranco Fini said. President Giorgio Napolitano was meeting with Monti in Rome before today’s ballot after making him a senator for life on Nov. 9, which granted him voting rights in the upper house.

The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond declined for a second day, shedding 31 basis points to 6.57 percent, narrowing the difference with German bunds to 483 basis points. The 10-year yield surged on Nov. 8 across the 7 percent threshold that prompted Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts, as Berlusconi’s government unraveled.

Berlusconi Resistance

The main obstacle to a Monti government would come from Berlusconi and his allies resisting the plan and pushing for early elections. Berlusconi still has a majority in the Senate.

“I still think that elections are the lesser of two evils,” Transport Minister Altero Matteoli told reporters in Rome today. “Others in the party have different opinions.”

Lawmakers from Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party will meet tomorrow to continue talks on their strategy, he said.

“The Monti government can only come to pass if Berlusconi acts responsibly and says yes to a unity government,” Fini said last night on Sky TG24.

Berlusconi offered to resign on Nov. 8 once the budget measures were approved. He came under pressure to step down after a series of defections left him without a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. Napolitano is charged with steering talks with political parties to muster support for a new government or call elections. Napolitano may complete the talks on Nov. 13 and immediately offer the position to Monti, newswire Ansa reported.

Non-Partisan Tradition

Italy has a tradition at times of political crisis to reach out to non-partisan leaders. Monti spent almost a decade in Brussels as EU commissioner and previously had broad backing in Italy. He was first appointed to the commission by Berlusconi in 1994 and was then confirmed by the opposition when it came to power after Berlusconi’s first government collapsed.

“Monti is by far the best candidate to lead a technocrat government, which is the only way out of Italy’s predicament,” James Walston, a professor of politics at the American University in Rome, wrote in an e-mailed message. The measures voted on today “will be a start, but then there will be difficult times, more cuts and greater hardships.”

The austerity measures before the Senate today include a pledge to raise 15 billion euros from real-estate sales over the next three years, a two-year increase in the retirement age to 67 by 2026, opening up closed professions within 12 months and a gradual reduction in government ownership of local services.

Cabinet Squabbling

The budget measures were first pledged to EU allies at a summit on Oct. 26 and are aimed at convincing investors Italy can overhaul its economy to reduce borrowing. Months of squabbling within Berlusconi’s Cabinet over the plans helped unravel his majority and prompt the selloff of Italian debt.

“If they manage to get their problems under control the situation could stabilize,” said Heinrich Bayer, an economist at Deutsche Postbank in Bonn, Germany. “Italy has the potential to weather the turmoil but they’ve already wasted a lot of time. They need to act now.”

U.S. President Barack Obama spoke with Napolitano and “expressed confidence in President Napolitano’s leadership to put an interim government in place in Italy that will implement an aggressive reform program and restore market confidence,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said yesterday.

Deficit Target

The EU has been stepping up the pressure on Italy to adopt the budget measures and has said the government’s economic forecasts are too optimistic. The European Commission said yesterday that Italy won’t make good on its pledge to balance the budget in 2013 and will finish that year with a deficit of 1.2 percent of gross domestic product. It also said that Italy’s recovery came to a standstill in the third quarter and the economy will probably contract in the final three months.

The country’s deficit of 4.6 percent of GDP last year was similar to Germany’s at 4.3 percent and less than that of the U.K. and France. Italy also has a surplus in its primary budget, which excludes debt interest payments.

Still, debt at almost 120 percent of GDP and economic growth that has trailed the EU average for over a decade has unnerved investors shunning Europe’s riskiest assets.

“It’s clear that only a comprehensive and wide-ranging package of reforms can kick-start Italian growth again,” EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday. “The first and foremost thing for Italy is to restore political stability and capacity of decision making” as well as “firm and determined action” on fiscal targets.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alessandra Migliaccio in Rome at amigliaccio@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net; Angela Cullen at acullen8@bloomberg.net



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ECB as Last-Resort Lender Will End Crisis: Silva

By Jim Silver - Nov 11, 2011 5:39 PM GMT+0700

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva talks about the European sovereign-debt crisis, political upheaval in Italy and the European Central Bank's purchase of government bonds. He spoke yesterday in New York with Bloomberg's Sara Eisen. (Source: Bloomberg)


The European Central Bank can stop the spread of the continent’s financial crisis with “foreseeable, unlimited” purchases of Italian and other government bonds, Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva said.

“The European Central Bank has to go beyond a narrow interpretation of its mission and should be prepared for foreseeable intervention in the secondary market, not as the central bank has done up to now,” Cavaco Silva said yesterday in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. He said government leaders are unlikely to move fast enough to find solutions.

“It has to be able to be a lender of last resort,” said Cavaco Silva, 72, who as Portugal’s prime minister presided over the 1992 signing of the Maastricht Treaty, which cleared the way for the euro common currency. “It has to be a foreseeable, unlimited intervention.”

Italian 10-year bond yields this week climbed to a euro-era record of 7.48 percent, surging past the 7 percent level that led Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek international bailouts. Ten-year Italian rates were recently at 6.63 percent after yesterday’s successful auction of one-year bills.

Such ECB purchases in the secondary market “would stop speculation, would stop doubts about the future value of those Italian or Spanish or Portuguese or Irish bonds,” the president said. “The real firewall is in the European Central Bank.”

He said the ECB won’t convince investors of its commitment if it continues “as the central bank has done up to now, saying ‘I don’t like it, but I’m forced to buy some Italian bonds.’”

ECB Response

ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot of the Netherlands said yesterday the central bank can’t do “much more” to stem the 17-nation euro region’s debt crisis.

Knot is the latest ECB policy maker to signal the central bank is unwilling to significantly ramp up its bond purchases to calm financial markets. ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet of Belgium and council member Jens Weidmann of Germany have also said the ECB cannot legally buy bonds to bail out a debt- strapped member state.

The cost of insurance against default on Italian government bonds eased to 569 basis points yesterday from the previous day’s record 571. That compares with 1,072 basis points for Portuguese debt, 749 for Irish bonds and 93 for German bunds.

Investors are demanding 964 basis points, or 9.64 percentage points, in additional interest today for Portuguese 10-year debt relative to comparable German debt, down from a record 1,071 basis points in July.

Raising Taxes

Portugal is raising taxes, cutting pensions, and reducing government workers’ pay to comply with the terms of the 78 billion-euro ($106 billion) aid package it received from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in May. Portugal is committed to meeting terms of the bailout, though the country’s austerity should be eased by bringing capital requirements on Portuguese banks in line with rules for other countries’ lenders, Cavaco Silva said.

By forcing Portuguese banks to lift Core Tier 1 capital levels to 9 percent by year-end, while other European banks have until mid-2012, the bailout is imposing unnecessary hardship on the economy, the president said.

“The deleveraging is too strong and too fast,” said Cavaco Silva. “It would be reasonable to be more gradual, and we hope the troika will understand this,” referring to the EU, IMF and ECB officials who review Portugal’s compliance. It’s not a renegotiation of the bailout agreement, he said, adding “no, not at all, that’s not a question.”

University of York

Cavaco Silva, an economist with a doctorate from the University of York in England, entered politics as finance minister in 1980 and 1981. He won the leadership of the Social Democratic Party in 1985 and served as prime minister from that year until 1995, the longest tenure of any democratically elected prime minister in Portugal.

He won the presidency in 2006, sharing the stage with Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates, whose minority government fell in March after he failed to win support for deficit-cutting measures.

Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho, a Social Democrat elected in June, is committed to reducing the budget deficit to 5.9 percent of gross domestic product in 2011 from last year’s 9.8 percent, and to 4.5 percent in 2012 before returning to the 3 percent limit set by the EU for countries using the euro.

‘Indiscipline and Irresponsibility’

Passos Coelho yesterday said the ECB shouldn’t pay for some countries’ “indiscipline and irresponsibility,” and that there isn’t sufficient consensus in Europe to change the central bank’s mandate. The ECB’s interventions as they stand have guaranteed some financial stability, he said in parliament.

Portugal’s economy will shrink 3 percent next year, the European Commission forecast yesterday. It would be one of only two countries with declines in GDP, the other being Greece with a 2.8 percent drop, the commission said, while the euro area expands 0.5 percent. Portuguese GDP is forecast to fall 1.9 percent this year, the commission said.

The country’s benchmark PSI-20 Index (PSI20) has tumbled 27 percent this year, compared with a 14 percent decline in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index and a 23 percent drop in Italy’s FTSE MIB Index.

Portugal’s government, which forecasts a 2.8 percent GDP decline for next year, sees a 1.2 percent recovery in 2013, paving the way for it to return to the markets when the three- year bailout program ends. Whether that will happen on time is impossible to predict, Cavaco Silva said.

European Summit

“I can’t say that Portugal will be able to go to the market at the end, nobody can say that,” he said. “Nobody could anticipate what is happening now in Italy.”

Still, according to decisions at a European summit in June, Portugal will qualify for continued aid as long as it’s complying with the terms of the bailout agreement, the president said. He’s confident Europe’s leaders will make decisions in the future that will get the region through the crisis, he said.

“I used to say that at the end, in the 25th hour, the wisdom of the leaders would come up,” Cavaco Silva said. “It has always been like that.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jim Silver in New York at jsilver@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Brad Skillman at bskillman1@bloomberg.net




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