Economic Calendar

Thursday, July 16, 2009

FX Thoughts for the Day

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services | Jul 16 09 12:18 GMT |

USD-CHF @ 1.0721/25...Range Support at 1.0670

R: 1.0793 / 1.0850
S: 1.0678-54 / 1.0606-0584

Overall, Dollar-Swiss remains ranged between 1.0670 on the downside and 1.0925 on the upside. Just below 1.0670, there is a Support at 1.0654, being the projected Max Low for the Day. If and while these Supports hold, we may hope to see a fresh rally back up towards the upper end of the range.

In case of a break below 1.0650, however, we may look for a test of the 1.0590 low seen on 02-June. Another Support is available at 1.0632 before that, though.

Limit Buy Order:

  • Buy USD 10K at 1.0674, SL 1.0579, TP 1.0800
  • Buy USD 10K at 1.0606, SL 1.0566, TP 1.0730

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.6420/24...Buy some

R: 1.6564 / 1.6604 / 1.6746
S: 1.6350 / 1.6280 / 1.6132

The Pound has risen well this week, after having seen a low near 1.5984 last week. The Support at 1.6359 mentioned in the morning has held so far. If and while this Support continues to hold, the Pound can rise further towards 1.6565 today. The projected Max High for the Day is 1.6594.

Market Trade (at time of writing):

  • Buy GBP 10K at current level, SL 1.6405, TP 1.6505

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.8026/30...May test crucial Resistance at 0.8100

R: 0.8059 / 0.8118
S: 0.8010 / 0.7959

The Aussie has risen well in the last hour or so (alongwith the other currencies) on the better than estimated Q2 JP Morgan earnings. The Support at 0.7977-50 mentioned in the morning has held well and there are chances of a test of strong channel Resistance at 0.8100 (of channel 0.77-81, mentioned in the morning).

The Resistance at 0.8100 is both strong and crucial, as may be seen on the Daily Candles on the following page:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle

If and while the Resistance at 0.8100-18 (latter is the projected Max High for the Day) holds, the Aussie may fall back towards 0.79 in the coming days. In case of a credible break above 0.8118, the Aussie could embark on a serious upmove towards 0.90 over time.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com





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Mixed Bag in Banking News: Positive JP Morgan Results but Likely CIT Bankruptcy. Wildly Positive Jobless Claims Data Due to Seasonal Adjustments

Looking for a trend in improving US manufacturing surveys with today's Philly Fed after strong Empire survey.

MAJOR HEADLINES - PREVIOUS SESSION

  • New Zealand Jun. Business PMI out at 46.2 vs. 43.1 in May
  • New Zealand Q2 Consumer Prices rose +0.6% QoQ vs. +0.5% expected
  • China Q2 GDP rose 7.9% vs. 7.8% expected and 6.1% in Q1
  • China Jun. Producer Price Index fell -7.8% vs. -7.4% expected and -7.2% in May
  • China Jun. Consumer Price Index fell -1.7% vs. -1.3% expected and -1.4% in May
  • China Jun. Retail Sales rose 15.0% vs. 15.3% expected and 15.2% in May
  • China Jun. Industrial Production rose 10.7% YoY vs. 9.5% expected and 8.9% in May
  • Switzerland Jul. ZEW out at 0.0 vs. 9.7 in Jun.
  • US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims out at 522k (SA) vs. 553k expected and 569k last week
  • US Weekly Continuing Claims out at 6273k vs. 6850k expected and record 6915k last week
  • US May Net Long-term TIC flows out at -19.8B vs. +16.5B expected and 11.5B in Apr.
  • US May Total Net TIC Flows out at-66.6B vs. -11.2B expected and -38B in Apr.

THEMES TO WATCH - UPCOMING SESSION

  • US Jul. Philadelphia Fed (1400)
  • US Jul. NAHB Housing Market Index (1700)
  • Australia Q2 Import Price Index (0130)

Market Comments:

China "manufactured" some impressive numbers in Q2, numbers that we take with a supertanker of salt. We will not bother to comment much on the actual growth figure due to the lack of transparency on the true state of the Chinese economy and we are reading wildly divergent reports on the state of affairs there. The important thing to observe is how long the stimulus manages to boost final demand in the Chinese economy and whether it actually eventually serves to aggravate the potential for economic weakness in the long run if consumers become too indebted. The Shanghai composite may be a reasonable barometer for risk appetite and predictor of economic weakness. For now, that average remains a one way street to the sky, it seems. In any case, the Chinese growth and other numbers were not earthshaking market movers overnight.

The bigger news was CIT's statement that it didn't feel that a bailout was likely. CIT apparently falls in the category of "small enough to let fail", even if it would still represent one of the largest bankruptcies in US history. This sent risk trades in a brief and sharp swoon overnight, before they recovered a bit later on the JPM "earnings" news. Also bolstering risk appetite again ahead of the US equity open was the Jobless Claims data, which showed a 667k non-seasonally adjusted number (vs. NSA of 581k last week) changed to a 522k seasonally adjusted headline. Voila - a stroke of the statisticians keyboard and you vaporize the activity of a net 145,000 people filing for claims after losing their jobs. Yes, there is a tendency for a large spike in claims in early July that then quickly fades, but we won't know the true level of jobless claims until we get into the fall firing period. Last fall/winter, Jobless claim rates as high as 900+k were revised down to sub-600k levels for seasonal adjustments and the seasonally adjusted numbers actually peaked when the SA numbers . It's all a circus really. As well, we must consider the fact that claimants - to be counted in these statistics must be "Actively seeking work". As we have read and discussed elsewhere, the quotient of discouraged workers is growing rapidly. The continuing claims number dropped by so much that is must also be due to some statistical adjustment - we'll have to look for an explanation. In general, analysts are saying that the large drop in both SA numbers is a distortion caused by all of the auto industry layoffs - an effect which will likely fade in coming weeks.

As we are writing this, bonds have picked up a strong bid - very out of whack with the supposed good economic data and the hysterical equity market rally of late. We're seeing the JPY fighting back a bit in response. There is something profoundly fishy about the intermarket action and we again underline that the latest moves - also in FX - smack of desperation or a squeeze on lack of sufficient participation rather than something we should be hanging our hats on. Some have pointed out that the VIX rose even as stocks also rose - not a healthy sign as a higher VIX is usually associated with fear. Is the equity market action simply a nasty short squeeze?

NZD has recovered much of the territory it lost after Fitch changed their debt rating outlook to negative in the Asian session despite some stronger numbers emerging from the NZ economy. Still, NZDUSD looks interesting for a short if it falls back below about 0.6385, though the really big area of support comes in at 0.6200. Today sees the Philly Fed - the second of the three major regional manufacturing surveys in the US. Observers are looking for a small pullback from last month's very high -2.2 reading (relative to lows in the previous months around -40). As with the Empire number, a -0- reading is the boundary that divides expansion versus contraction.

Saxobank

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Fed’s Lack of ‘Conviction’ on Outlook Signals Policy Stalemate

By Craig Torres and Vivien Lou Chen

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- A split among Federal Reserve officials widened last month: Depending on who is doing the forecasting, economic growth will either remain stalled next year or will accelerate to the fastest rate since 1999.

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting show central bankers are less certain than they were in April over how the economy will emerge from the worst recession in a half century. Policy makers have differing assessments of how quickly credit markets will heal, and how effective a $787 billion fiscal stimulus and $1 trillion expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet will be, according to the Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes released yesterday.

“The committee as a whole lacks conviction about where the economy is going,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey. “Uncertainty has to make them slower to start warning about a turning point in policy.”

Central bankers left the benchmark lending rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent last month and said the policy rate was likely to remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.”

The range of unemployment forecasts for 2010 widened in June to 8.5 percent to 10.6 percent, a 2.1 percentage point gap, from 8 percent to 9.6 percent in April.

The range of projections for 2010 growth showed a gap of 3.2 percentage points, up from a 2.5 percentage-point divide in April. The lowest forecast suggests the economy will grow just 0.8 percent from this year’s fourth quarter to the final quarter of 2010; the highest projects 4 percent growth.

‘Unreconciled Views’

“Uncertainty just lends itself to standing pat,” said Vincent Reinhart, former director of the Fed Board’s Monetary Affairs Division and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “You have a committee in which a significant fraction have unreconciled views among themselves.”

Policy makers were concerned that consumer spending will resume its decline once temporary benefits to household income from the fiscal stimulus subside, the minutes showed. Some officials also saw a danger of a renewed decline in the housing market, in part as mortgage rates increase.

“Labor market conditions were of particular concern to meeting participants,” the minutes said. “With the recovery projected to be rather sluggish, most participants anticipated that the employment situation was likely to be downbeat for some time.”

Purchase Programs Unchanged

At the same time, the FOMC concluded that it was best to keep its programs for purchasing Treasuries and mortgage debt unchanged. “The effects of further asset purchases, especially purchases of Treasury securities, on the economy and on inflation expectations were uncertain,” the minutes said.

Forecasts also show members divided over whether economic growth will exceed their estimates of its long-run potential of around 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent. The difference of opinion is important because growth above potential would push down the unemployment rate faster. Unemployment stood at 9.5 percent in June, the highest since August 1983, as employers eliminated 467,000 jobs.

Growth estimates from 10 FOMC members for next year clustered in ranges above 2.7 percent, while seven were in ranges of 2.5 percent or below. The split over whether the expansion will be fast enough to restore job growth, or too slow, will complicate policy leadership for Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, analysts said.

“The wide array of estimates for everything from inflation to growth and unemployment suggests that we really don’t know how this economy is going to unfold in coming months, let alone two years from now,” said Richard Yamarone, director of economic research for Argus Research Corp. in New York. “Until some of these clouds dissipate, I can’t imagine the Fed is going to take these programs off the table or change its target rate.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net; Vivien Lou Chen in San Francisco at +1- vchen1@bloomberg.net.



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International Demand for Long-Term U.S. Assets Falls

By Vincent Del Giudice

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- International demand for long-term U.S. financial assets weakened in May as Russia, Japan and Caribbean banking centers trimmed their holdings even as China stepped up its purchases.

Total net sales of long-term equities, notes and bonds were a net $19.8 billion in May, compared with buying of $11.5 billion the month before, the Treasury said today in Washington. Monthly foreign investment flows dropped $66.6 billion in May, compared with a decline of $38 billion in April.

While Treasuries have been a haven for investors during the credit crisis, emerging economic powers question the dollar’s status as the U.S. runs up record debt to fund the economic recovery. At a Group of Eight summit last week in Italy, China repeated calls for a “diversified and rational” global currency regime. Russian and Brazilian officials said the issue may come up at the wider G-20 forum in Pittsburgh in September.

“We still need the foreign capital,” David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York, said before the report. “We’re still borrowing. It’s important to see a significant inflow.”

China, the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, increased its holdings of government notes and bonds by $38 billion to $801.5 billion. Holdings in Hong Kong also increased. Japan, the second-biggest international investor, reduced its total by $8.7 billion to $677.2 billion. Russia’s holdings fell $12.5 billion to $124.5 billion. Holdings at Caribbean banking centers also fell, declining by $9.9 billion to $194.8 billion.

Forecasts

Analysts had anticipated international net purchases of long-term U.S. assets of $16.5 billion, according to the median of five estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Including bills, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries rose a net $30.5 billion.

The Treasury’s reporting on long-term securities captures international purchases of government notes and bonds, stocks, corporate debt and securities issued by U.S. agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which buy home mortgages.

Foreign investments in U.S. agency debt increased by $12.8 billion in May. Net purchases of American equities rose $16.7 billion in May after rising $4.6 billion the prior month. Holdings of corporate bonds increased a net $935 million.

Record Deficit

The U.S. budget deficit topped $1 trillion for the first nine months of the fiscal year and broke a monthly record for June as the recession subtracted from revenue and the government spent to rejuvenate the economy.

The shortfall for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1 totaled $1.1 trillion, the first time that the gap for the period surpassed $1 trillion, Treasury figures showed July 13 in Washington. The excess of spending over revenue for June was $94.3 billion, the first deficit for that month since 1991, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

For the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30, the Office of Management and Budget forecasts the deficit to reach a record $1.841 trillion, more than four times the previous fiscal year’s $459 billion shortfall.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao expressed concerned earlier this year that his country’s Treasury holdings may fall in value as the U.S. sells record amounts of debt to fund the budget gap.

President Barack Obama is counting on nations such as China to fund his $787 billion economic stimulus and separate programs to aid financial firms and homeowners amid the worst downturn since World War II, which has cost about 6.5 million jobs.

Geithner Trip

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has sought to reassure investors such as China that their investments in Treasuries are safe, while also seeking to reassure U.S. voters that the government has a plan to get its debt under control.

Geithner, concluding his first trip to the Middle East, yesterday said the Obama administration favors a strong dollar and expressed confidence it will stay the world’s main reserve currency.

“It is the policy of the United States and it will remain the policy of the United States to remain committed to a strong dollar,” Geithner said in an interview with Al-Arabiya television. “My view, and this is the view I heard expressed here,” is that the dollar “will remain the principal reserve currency,” he said.

China Holdings

Meanwhile, a People’s Bank of China economist wrote in the China Securities Journal yesterday that China should “moderately” increase its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and purchases this year should not be lower than the total for 2008.

The holdings can be trimmed and purchases of other types of U.S. assets stepped up once the American economy recovers, Wang Yong, a professor at the central bank’s Zhengzhou-based training school, wrote in an article in the Xinhua News Agency-affiliated newspaper.

China and other nations with large dollar reserves should hold negotiations with the U.S. government on how those funds can be injected into the world’s largest economy, and those talks should include the possibility of shifting bond holdings into other assets such as stocks and gold, Wang wrote.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who first questioned the dollar’s future last month, saying it isn’t “in a spectacular position, let’s be frank, and its prospects cause various questions,” handed out coins at the July 10 G-8 meeting in Italy bearing the words “united future world currency.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net





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Philadelphia Area Factory Index Falls to -7.5 in July

By Courtney Schlisserman

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank at a faster pace than forecast as sales and employment deteriorated.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell to minus 7.5 from a nine-month high of minus 2.2 in June, the bank said today. Negative numbers signal contraction.

The report runs counter to figures yesterday from the New York Fed showing manufacturing in that region contracted at the slowest pace in more than a year. Lean inventories and government efforts to revive auto sales through cash incentives have set the stage for a gradual recovery in output at General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC following their bankruptcies.

“We’re probably a month or two away from the auto recession ending for factories and probably for the economy,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “There probably is room for further paring of inventories but seems to be a lot of the moving has already occurred.”

Economists forecast the index would decline to minus 4.5, according to the median of 53 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 5 to minus 10.8.

A report from the Labor Department showed the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since January, depressed by shifts in the timing of auto plant shutdowns.

Auto Shutdowns

Initial jobless claims dropped by 47,000 to 522,000, lower than forecast, in the week ended July 11, from a revised 569,000 the prior week. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance plunged by a record 642,000, also reflecting seasonal issues surrounding the closures at carmakers.

The Philadelphia Fed’s shipments gauge decreased to minus 9.5 from 2.1, which was the first positive reading since May 2008 and the highest since December 2007, the month the recession began. The employment index fell to minus 25.3 from minus 21.8 in June, signaling payrolls fell at a faster pace.

The measure of new orders rose to minus 2.2 from minus 4.8 the prior month. The index of prices paid rose to minus 3.5 from minus 13. Prices received decreased to minus 21.5 from minus 16.6.

The headline index is a separate question unrelated to the individual measures and some economists consider it a gauge of business sentiment.

Optimism Dims

Today’s report also showed manufacturers were less upbeat about the future. The Philadelphia Fed’s expectations index for the next six months fell to 51.9 from 60.1 in June, which was the highest level since September 2003.

Another regional survey this week showed manufacturing shrank at a slower pace. The New York Fed’s general economic index for July rose to minus 0.6, the highest level since April 2008, from minus 9.4 the prior month, the bank said yesterday.

Separate Fed data yesterday showed industrial output fell 0.4 percent in June, the smallest decline in eight months.

Total business inventories shrank at a record $87.1 billion annual rate in the first quarter, subtracting 2.2 percentage points from gross domestic product. Economists forecast companies continued to slash stockpiles in the second quarter, setting the stage for expansion in the second half of the year.

The government is scheduled to release its first estimate of second-quarter GDP on July 31. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News earlier this month estimated the economy contracted at a 1.8 percent pace from April through June and projected a return to growth in the second half of 2009.

Boost Capacity

Nucor Corp. Chief Executive Officer Dan DiMicco said June 24 the second-largest U.S. steelmaker may boost plant operating rates to as much as 60 percent of capacity in the third quarter as customers use up inventories.

Operating rates in the industry had dropped to about 40 percent after the economy worsened in the credit crisis.

“We have seen distributors begin to order at a level consistent with real demand,” DiMicco said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We will not be happy, and our competitors will not be happy, until we are north of the 80 percent levels again.”

Manufacturing may also be boosted in coming months as automakers Chrysler Group LLC and General Motors Co. resume production at some plants shutdown while the companies went through bankruptcy. General Motors exited its restructuring July 10 and Chrysler emerged from bankruptcy protection on June 10.

Alcoa Inc. Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said July 7 he’s “very optimistic” about sales as the Chinese economy and the U.S. automotive industry start to recover.

“Things are bottoming out, and they are even coming back in some sectors,” Kleinfeld said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “I’d mention the automotive sector” as one area of improvement, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net





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Shell to Shut Part of Singapore Refinery for Upgrades

By Yee Kai Pin

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc plans to shut a gasoline unit at its Singapore oil refinery, the company’s biggest, to improve the plant and build links to a proposed petrochemicals complex.

The company will idle and overhaul a hydrocracker unit as part of plans to start its Shell Eastern Petrochemicals Complex, which will include an ethylene cracker on Pulau Bukom and facilities on nearby Jurong Island. The closure may last two months starting in mid-September, according to a person with knowledge of the schedule, who declined to be identified by name because the information isn’t public.

“We are making modifications in order to integrate the refinery with the petrochemicals complex,” said Oh Yam Chew, a manager for media relations at Shell in Singapore. He would neither confirm nor deny the shutdown schedule.

A shutdown of the 34,000 barrel-a-day hydrocracker would increase the supply of fuel oil in the Singapore market, while curtailing the amount of gasoline available for export. Processing margins for fuel oil last month averaged $7.01 a barrel below Dubai crude oil, the weakest in six months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“It’s actually a good time to shut down,” said N. Ravivenkatesh, a Singapore-based analyst at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. “Refining margins are depressed and inventories are high everywhere.”

Shell, in its twice-annual Shell Chemicals Magazine for Autumn 2008, said the refinery shutdowns will include “converting the existing hydrocracker unit to operate at a high capacity, installing interconnections to the ethylene cracker and modifying pipe work across the refinery.”

A “large-scale turnaround is planned in 2009 to make the final modifications,” according to the newsletter.

The new petrochemicals project, Shell’s largest single investment in Asia, will be completed in early 2010, Oh said.

The Bukom refinery has a capacity of 500,000 barrels a day, according to the company’s Web site.

To contact the reporter on this story: Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net





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Enel Refinancing to Lead Utility Bond Issuance, UniCredit Says

By Esteban Duarte

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Enel SpA, Italy’s biggest power company, may lead utility bond sales in the second half with the issuance of 5 billion euros ($7 billion) of notes to refinance its takeover of Endesa SA, UniCredit SpA analysts said.

Utilities in Europe are likely to raise about 17 billion euros in the second half, analysts led by Christian Kleindienst wrote in a report. Electricite de France SA in Paris and Essen, Germany-based RWE AG will each sell about 2 billion euros of bonds, the report said.

“We expect issuance activity to peak in September and early October,” Munich-based Kleindienst wrote in the report dated yesterday. “We also expect high investor demand for utility bonds to continue.”

European utilities issued 48.3 billion euros of bonds this year, more than any other industry, to pay for acquisitions and fund spending on new power plants, the analysts wrote. Companies and banks sold a record 749 billion euros of investment-grade bonds in total this year, 59 percent more than the same period in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The extra yield investors demand to buy utility company notes has narrowed 95 basis points this year to 137 basis points, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s EMU Utilities bond index. The spread compares with 267 basis points on Merrill Lynch’s broad investment-grade corporate index. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Enel has 21 billion euros of debt maturing in the next 18 months, Bloomberg data show. That includes 15 billion euros of loans due in April 2010 used to finance the acquisition of Madrid-based Endesa in 2007.

An Enel spokesman in Rome declined to comment. Chairman Piero Gnudi said July 14 that the idea of a bond issue is “just a hypothesis” after the La Stampa newspaper reported Enel is preparing to sell 1 billion euros of notes in coming months.

Spokeswomen at EDF and RWE weren’t immediately available to comment.

To contact the reporter on this story: Esteban Duarte in Madrid at eduarterubia@bloomberg.net





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Nigerian Peace Remains Elusive After Oil Region Truce

By Dulue Mbachu

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Nigeria’s release of rebel leader Henry Okah and his movement’s announcement of a 60-day cease-fire may not be enough to end the insurgency that has cut crude supply from Africa’s top oil exporter by a fifth.

President Umaru Yar’Adua’s administration dropped charges of treason and gun-running against Okah, 44, releasing him on July 13 from more than a year in jail, as part of an amnesty for rebels announced last month.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, responded by calling a temporary cease-fire and saying it will seek talks with the government. Okah himself isn’t sure he’ll be able to stop the violence.

“I’ll have to go into the creeks and meet the commanders,” Okah said in a telephone interview from the Nigerian capital, Abuja, yesterday. “I’ve been away for 23 months and it’s only after I have had time to talk to those involved that I can say anything.”

Armed attacks targeting oil infrastructure in the southern Niger River delta, home to Nigeria’s oil industry, have shut plants operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp. and Eni SpA, curbing production of the light, sweet variety of oil favored by U.S. refiners. Lost oil exports from Nigeria, the fifth-biggest source of U.S. oil imports, has contributed to crude’s 37 percent rally this year to more than $61 a barrel.

Respite in Fighting

The truce, if it holds, may provide an opportunity for Yar’Adua to start to address grievances in the delta region, particularly the widespread demand for more local control of oil, said Antony Goldman, a London-based analyst specializing in West African countries.

“The most you can get is a respite,” Nnamdi Obasi, West Africa analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said yesterday by phone from Abuja. “Then after a while both sides will go back to the trenches.”

Demands for distributing more wealth locally have proved difficult for the authorities in Abuja to accept, since Nigeria’s government depends on oil exports for more than 80 percent of its revenue and 95 percent of foreign income, according to the Petroleum Ministry.

MEND is calling for a system of “fiscal federalism,” in which states in the delta region should receive 100 percent of the earnings from the oil industry and then pay a tax to the federal government.

Revenue Sharing

A panel appointed by the government last September, known as the Niger Delta Technical Committee, recommended changing the current revenue-sharing system so that the share of states in the Niger delta would rise to 25 percent, from 13 percent now.

“It’s now eight months since the government received that report and it’s doubtful it wants to address that issue,” said Obasi of Crisis Group. “Addressing it and dealing with issues of mass poverty and infrastructure needs in the region is the only way there can be lasting peace.”

Communities in the Niger Delta, a maze of creeks and rivers feeding into one of the world’s biggest remaining areas of mangroves, are among Nigeria’s poorest, a Shell-funded report on the area said in 2004. It cited studies showing per-capita income in the region to be below the national average of $260 a year. Unemployment exceeds 90 percent in some areas. Nigerian oil production averaged 1.79 million barrels a day in June, according to Bloomberg estimates.

Fragile Truce

The truce remains fragile. Only hours after declaring it, MEND said the Nigerian military had dispatched troops to one of its camps. If attacked, MEND said it would call off the cease- fire. Colonel Rabe Abubakar, a spokesman for the government’s Joint Task Force in charge of security, denied any such raid was planned.

The day before Okah’s release, the most significant gesture of the government’s amnesty program so far, the rebel group brought its campaign from the delta to Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city, in an attack on Atlas Cove, the main fuel receiving jetty.

“Okah’s release happening propitiously” just after “MEND extended its attacks to Lagos does not bode well for the government’s amnesty plan,” said Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, West Africa analyst for Eurasia Group.

Command Structure

Armed groups in the delta have “no single unifying leader or command structure,” he said, so individual commanders may accept the government’s amnesty while others pursue attacks.

Since violence in the region intensified in May, when the government launched an offensive against MEND bases, both sides have seen that militarily neither can deliver a knock-out blow, Goldman said. While the government may have surprised the militants with the capacity it displayed, it also showed that it can’t defend all oil facilities, he said.

Nigeria’s Inspector-General of Police, Mike Okiro, yesterday urged militants to accept the amnesty, saying the Okah’s release was evidence of the government’s commitment to the process.

“Government is not going to force you to respond to the amnesty,” Okiro told reporters in Port Harcourt. “Government has given a period of time for the amnesty and if the amnesty period expires, it means, you do not want it.”

The government portrays the amnesty as the first step in a process to bring peace to the region.

It’s not intended as “a stand-alone solution,” Tamie Koripamo-Agarry, a spokeswoman for the Presidential Amnesty Committee, said in a statement e-mailed to reporters yesterday.

The government recognizes the neglect in the region and is prepared to help boost development, she said. “Peace will accelerate this process.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Dulue Mbachu in Lagos at dmbachu@bloomberg.net





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Verleger Sees $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut

By Grant Smith

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will collapse to $20 a barrel this year as the recession takes a deeper toll on fuel demand, according to academic and former U.S. government adviser Philip Verleger.

A crude surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year, straining global storage capacity and sending prices to a seven-year low, said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100. Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said.

“The economic situation is not getting better,” Verleger, 64, a professor at the University of Calgary and head of consultant PKVerleger LLC, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Global refinery runs are going to be much lower in the fall. If the recession continues and it’s a warm winter, it’s going to be devastating.”

Crude oil last traded at $20 a barrel in February 2002. Futures were at $61.18 today in New York, having recovered 89 percent from a four-year low reached last December. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is implementing record supply cuts announced last year in response to plunging consumption.

“OPEC don’t realize the magnitude of the cuts they need to make,” which would total about a further 2 million barrels a day, Verleger added. “Storage is going to become tight. It’s not clear if there’s going to be enough storage available.”

China, Inflation

Oil will average $63.91 in the fourth quarter, according to the median of analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Crude for December delivery traded at $65.61 today in New York. Prices have rebounded on expectations of a demand recovery, led by China and other developing economies, and concern expansionary monetary policy would stoke inflation and weaken the dollar.

At the other end of the spectrum from Verleger, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted in a report yesterday oil will rally to $85 a barrel by the end of the year, and recommended that clients buy futures contracts for delivery in December 2011.

“China is in a real desperate situation,” said Verleger, who publishes the Petroleum Economics Monthly. “We’re in a situation where U.S. consumers aren’t consuming and Chinese manufacturers get hurt. Economists are looking for growth in all the wrong places.”

Forward contracts for oil have been higher than prices for immediate delivery this year, a situation known as contango, creating incentives to buy crude now and store it. That may end as growing stockpiles make storage more expensive.

“Prices would be much lower today, but for the very large incentive to build inventories,” Verleger said. “You need forward buyers, which we had when people were fearing inflation, but as concerns turn toward deflation” that will no longer be the case.

To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net





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Nexen Profit Plunges as Oil Prices, Output Slide

By Gene Laverty

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Nexen Inc., the Canadian oil company that operates in the North Sea and Yemen, said second-quarter profit fell 95 percent after crude prices tumbled and output slipped from its Buzzard and Syncrude projects.

Net income dropped to C$20 million ($18 million), or 4 cents a share, from C$380 million, or 70 cents, a year earlier, the Calgary-based company said today in a statement. Excluding changes in the value of derivatives contracts, the company had been expected to earn 29 cents a share, the average of 14 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Nexen’s crude-oil output was hampered by maintenance at the Buzzard field in the U.K. North Sea and at the Syncrude Canada Ltd. oil-sands plant in Alberta. Production after royalties slipped 1.4 percent to the equivalent of 208,000 barrels a day. Sales declined 39 percent to C$1.3 billion.

The company expects output to be lower in the third quarter on planned maintenance downtime and increase by the fourth as new fields ramp up.

New York oil futures averaged 52 percent lower in the second quarter than a year earlier as the global recession sapped energy demand. About 85 percent of Nexen’s output is crude oil.

Nexen rose 49 cents, or 2.2 percent, to C$23.15 yesterday in trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

(Nexen will hold an earnings conference call for investors and analysts starting at 9 a.m. New York time. To listen, go to http://www.nexeninc.com or dial +1-877-240-9772.)

To contact the reporter on this story: Gene Laverty in Charlotte, North Carolina, at glaverty@bloomberg.net.





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Oil Falls From Highest in a Week Before Unemployment Report

By Grant Smith

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell from its highest in a week before a report forecast to show the U.S. shed more jobs, spurring concern that a recovery in fuel demand will be delayed.

The Labor Department is likely to say later today that 553,000 people made initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended July 11, according to a Bloomberg survey. U.S. gasoline and heating oil supplies increased last week, the government said yesterday. Prices will fall to $20 a barrel this year, former government adviser Philip Verleger predicted.

“The OECD economies are still deep in recession,” said Andy Sommer, an analyst at Elektrizitaets-Gesellschaft Laufenburg in Dietikon, Switzerland. “The Asian countries are coming out of the worst, but warning voices persist that growth is not stable yet.”

Crude oil for August delivery fell as much as 79 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $60.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading for $60.96 at 12:14 p.m. in London. Prices have increased 37 percent this year and jumped 3.4 percent yesterday to $61.54, the highest close since July 7.

China’s gross domestic product grew 7.9 percent in the second quarter. The nation overtook Japan as the world’s second- largest stock market by value for the first time in 18 months, as government spending and record bank lending boosted share prices. China’s industrial production increased 10.7 percent in June from a year earlier, the largest gain in nine months excluding seasonal distortions. Retail sales climbed 15 percent.

Lower Refinery Runs

“The economic situation is not getting better,” said Verleger, a professor at the University of Calgary and head of consultant PKVerleger LLC, in a telephone interview yesterday. “Global refinery runs are going to be much lower in the fall. If the recession continues and it’s a warm winter, it’s going to be devastating.”

A crude surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year, straining global storage capacity and sending prices to a seven-year low, said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100. Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said.

U.S. crude inventories fell 2.81 million barrels to 344.5 million last week, the Energy Department said yesterday.

“The huge rally across the board in equities helped boost crude oil,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser with Sander Capital in Seattle. “The weekly EIA report showed a drop in crude oil inventories by 2.8 million barrels, which lent support to higher crude prices as well.”

Growing Gasoline Stockpiles

Crude stockpiles were forecast to decline 2.1 million barrels, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Refineries operated at 87.9 percent of capacity, the highest since August.

Gasoline inventories climbed 1.44 million barrels to 214.6 million, the highest since April, the Energy Department report showed. Supplies were forecast to increase 875,000 barrels.

Supplies of distillate fuel increased 553,000 barrels to 159.3 million in the week ended July 10, the highest since January 1985, the report showed.

Brent crude for August settlement was at $62.22 a barrel, down 87 cents, on London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange at 12:15 p.m. in London. The more-actively traded contract for September, which becomes the front month tomorrow, slipped 50 cents to $62.08.

To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net





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Euro May Rise Toward $1.46 If Resistance Breached, Helaba Says

By Daniel Tilles

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may rise toward $1.46 should it breach so-called resistance at $1.4122, according to Helaba Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen.

“Exchange rates of around $1.46 should then be reckoned with,” Ralf Umlauf, head of floor research at Helaba in Frankfurt, wrote today in a report. “This would still be within the upward trend corridor that became established in February.”

The euro may find so-called support against the dollar at $1.4000, $1.3960 and between $1.3900 and $1.3912, Umlauf said.

The common European currency fell 0.3 percent to $1.4070 as of 7:26 a.m. in London. It rose as high as $1.4117.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Tilles in London at dtilles@bloomberg.net





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China Currency Policy Supports View Dollar Will Weaken, UBS Says

By Justin Carrigan

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- China’s rising foreign-exchange reserves increase pressure on the nation to diversify its holdings away from the U.S. currency, according to UBS AG.

“Over the long-term China’s policies are clearly unsustainable and supportive of our view that the dollar will structurally weaken over 2010 and 2011,” Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a note yesterday. “China may need to quietly accelerate diversification going forward, benefiting other Group of 10 currencies such as the euro, yen and Australian dollar.”

UBS said it remains “upbeat” on the dollar over the next three months.

To contact the reporter on this story: Justin Carrigan in London at jcarrigan@bloomberg.net





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Goldman Sachs Beats Options Bears as S&P 500 Rallies

By Eric Martin and Kayla Carrick

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Rising retail sales and record profits at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are outweighing insider selling and bearish stock-options bets as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index stages its biggest rally in four months.

The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities climbed 3 percent yesterday to complete the steepest three-day advance since March. Retail sales rose 0.6 percent last month, topping the 0.4 percent estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs reported earnings of $3.44 billion. Intel Corp. said third-quarter sales will be up to 13 percent higher than analysts predicted.

As recently as four weeks ago, money managers said the longest streak in net stock sales by corporate insiders in two years, the biggest gap between the cost of bullish and bearish stock options since August 2008 and rising unemployment would drive the S&P 500 down. The index, which fell 38 percent in 2008 and another 25 percent in the first two months of the year, is now up 3.3 percent for 2009.

“The human desire for hope springs eternal,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps oversee $13.8 billion at Huntington Asset Management in Cincinnati. “Some of this is over-complacency by people who sat out way too long.”

Sorrentino said he hasn’t sold an options position that pays off if the S&P 500 slips to 775 in December, a 17 percent decrease from yesterday’s close. He said two weeks ago that he expected the index to fall more than 10 percent from its July 2 price of 896.42.

JPMorgan, CIT

U.S. futures fluctuated between gains and losses today as earnings from New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. that beat analysts’ estimates offset speculation that New York-based CIT Group Inc. is on the verge of bankruptcy. The S&P 500 contract had advanced as much as 0.3 percent and retreated as much as 0.7 percent as of 7:48 a.m. in New York.

The 14-week, 40 percent rally in the S&P 500 to its 2009 high on June 12 spurred concern among some investors that the gains came too quickly. The advance was the steepest since the 1930s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The S&P 500 slid 7.1 percent from its 2009 peak to 879.13 on July 10. It has rebounded to the highest level since June 12, when insiders at S&P 500 companies were selling stock for the 14th straight week, the longest streak in two years, according to data compiled by Princeton, New Jersey-based InsiderScore.com.

Lehman’s Collapse

The gauge has gained 3.8 percent since July 6, when the price of options to protect against a 10 percent decline in the index exceeded bets on an advance by the most since August 2008. That was a month before the collapse of New York-based securities firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in the biggest U.S. bankruptcy.

Profits that are beating analyst projections helped push the index up 6 percent since companies began reporting earnings on July 8. Almost 67 percent have released results that surpassed estimates, compared with an average of 59 percent since 1993, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The rally is due to second-quarter earnings coming out that are showing some signs of strength,” said Jason Cooper, who manages $2.5 billion at 1st Source Investment Advisors in South Bend, Indiana. “That’s something people are looking toward as far as an indication of where we were for the second quarter and where we might be going for the third.”

Cooper cited insider selling as a reason for investor caution after it rose in the week ended June 16.

Intel, Goldman Sachs

Intel, based in Santa Clara, California, added 7.3 percent to $18.05 yesterday, the highest price since October. The world’s biggest chipmaker said third-quarter revenue will reach as much as $8.9 billion as computer makers boost orders. Analysts projected $7.86 billion based on the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Goldman Sachs climbed 9.4 percent this week. The bank posted record earnings as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached all-time highs less than a year after the firm took $10 billion in U.S. rescue funds, and Meredith Whitney recommended buying the shares.

Whitney, the banking analyst who became one of Wall Street’s first bears when credit markets started to freeze in 2007, spurred a 9.3 percent jump in Bank of America Corp. on July 13. She said the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender was the “cheapest” among U.S. banks.

‘Scales Have Tipped’

“The scales have tipped to where people are looking for reasons to be bullish,” said Michael Levine, a money manager at New York-based OppenheimerFunds Inc., which oversees about $145 billion. “There’s a sense of guarded optimism.”

Levine warned that the S&P 500 had risen “too far, too fast” in a July 1 interview.

Fund managers said at the end of June that lockstep gains in commodities and stocks created the risk of a replay of last year, when equities and raw materials posted their biggest retreats in half a century. Since then, the S&P 500 has added 1.5 percent.

Joseph Keating of RBC Bank, who warned on June 17 that insider selling would precede declines in stocks, said the size of last year’s losses is helping drive the market now. The S&P 500 has fallen 40 percent since its all-time high 21 months ago.

“We’re still down from the peak in stock prices from October 2007,” said Keating, who helps oversee $4 billion as chief investment officer of Raleigh, North Carolina-based RBC Bank. “An awful lot of bad news continues to be discounted.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net; Kayla Carrick in New York at kcarrick1@bloomberg.net.





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Treasury Bets U.S. Financial System Can Weather CIT Collapse

By Scott Lanman and Vivien Lou Chen

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. spurning of CIT Group Inc.’s aid request suggests officials are betting they’ve fixed the financial system enough to withstand the bankruptcy of a mid-sized lender.

“I hate to say this, but it was probably expendable,” said Dennis Santiago, chief executive officer of Institutional Risk Analytics, a Torrance, California, research firm that studies systemic risk. “It may have just missed the boat” on federal rescues, Santiago said.

Yesterday’s decision to forego a lifeline for CIT came 10 months after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy. Lehman’s collapse ushered in the depths of the credit crisis to date, and resulted in the establishment of a $700 billion bailout fund; officials yesterday indicated programs created with that money would help fill any lending gap left by CIT.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, en route to Paris as CIT acknowledged policy makers had turned it down, is also wagering the administration will weather any political fallout. Unlike Bear Stearns Cos. or American International Group Inc., which got extraordinary aid last year, New York-based CIT specializes in loans to smaller firms, counting 1 million enterprises, including 300,000 retailers, among its customers.

A Treasury official said the department anticipates losing the $2.3 billion of taxpayer funds that it had already injected into the company from the Troubled Asset Relief Program should it file for bankruptcy.

‘Disruption’ and ‘Anger’

There will be “a lot of disruption and anger among voters, particularly among people who rely on firms such as CIT for funding,” said Sean Egan, head of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Haverford, Pennsylvania, which rates CIT below investment grade.

“A major provider of capital in the middle market is likely to be out of business in the near future,” and investors will be concerned, at least in the “short run” about CIT, Egan said.

CIT, whose stock trading was halted by the New York Stock Exchange before the close, said late yesterday it was told “there is no appreciable likelihood of additional government support being provided over the near term.” CIT added that it was “evaluating alternatives” with its advisers.

The Treasury then highlighted in a statement that the government has enacted “powerful” mechanisms to revive credit markets. “Even during periods of financial stress, we believe that there is a very high threshold for exceptional government assistance to individual companies,” the department said.

Administration Rationale

An Obama administration official separately said CIT didn’t receive more government assistance because it hadn’t gone to private capital sources to rebuild its balance sheet, something that several of the biggest Wall Street and regional lenders did earlier this year.

The official, who requested anonymity to discuss the deliberations, said the government also determined that CIT didn’t pose systemic risk to the economy if it failed to receive more aid.

Yesterday’s collapse in talks between regulators and CIT followed reluctance by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the bank’s main regulator, to give it permission to participate in the agency’s debt-guarantee program.

The Federal Reserve had separately considered whether to let CIT put some of its parent assets into a banking unit, a move that could have increased its potential borrowing from the central bank. No such aid was forthcoming. The Fed has doubled its balance sheet to more than $2 trillion as it engaged in Wall Street rescues and emergency loans to banks across the nation.

‘Very Big Losses’

“If the government would have rescued them they would have been in there for a very long time, and they would have taken very big losses,” said Eric Hovde, who manages $1 billion at Hovde Capital Advisors LLC in Washington, which concentrates on financial and real-estate related companies.

Part of the Fed and Treasury efforts to shore up the financial markets have been directed at restarting lending to small businesses. The two agencies in March jointly started the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF. Under the program, the Fed lets investors borrow to purchase securities backed by auto, credit-card and other loans, with the idea that should spur lenders to extend more credit.

TALF loans from the Fed totaled $24.9 billion as of last week, compared with the program’s planned capacity of $1 trillion, backed by $100 billion of funds from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

TALF Aid

Fed officials credit the existence of the TALF with spurring the market for new asset-backed securities and reducing the difference, or spread, between yields and benchmark rates.

“So far, the evidence indicates that the program is working as designed,” New York Fed President William Dudley said in a speech last month. Yield premiums on consumer asset- backed securities have dropped “sharply,” he said.

The three-month London Interbank offered rate for the dollar, a benchmark for liquidity stresses among banks, has fallen every week since mid-March. The rate dropped to 0.51 percent yesterday from 1.43 percentage point at the start of the year.

Other evidence of a stabilization in the financial industry emerged this week, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reporting record profits. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index has rallied 11 percent this week.

Fed policy makers still regarded financial markets as “fragile” and the economy as “vulnerable to further adverse shocks,” minutes of their June 23-24 meeting, released yesterday in Washington, showed.

Regulatory Overhaul

The spurning of CIT comes amid a growing debate among officials, regulators, lawmakers and the financial industry over how to address the issue of firms deemed too big to let fail.

President Barack Obama is seeking the biggest overhaul of banking rules in decades, and wants to give the Fed new powers to oversee capital and liquidity standards. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, along with some lawmakers and central bankers, has urged stronger efforts to address the too-big-to-fail issue.

Gary Stern, president of the Minneapolis Fed, said the Obama plan “fails to come to grips” with the challenge, partly because it doesn’t threaten creditors with the risk of loss. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, plans a hearing on the matter July 21.

CIT was created in 1908, after founder Henry Ittleson noticed wholesalers repeatedly short of cash while he was a purchaser for a St. Louis department store. He wanted to create a new company that would serve customers overlooked by larger financial institutions, according to the firm’s Web site.

“I’ve heard from a lot of people, including a lot of people involved in small business, that it would cause a serious problem” for CIT to fail, Frank said in an interview yesterday before the firm’s announcement.

Among financial firms, “especially those on the edge, there’s going to be a scramble to figure out whether you’re in or out” of bailouts, said Joseph Mason, Louisiana State University finance professor. “This classification of systemic risk really is something like pornography -- Fed and Treasury know it when they see it. You really can’t pre-commit.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net; Vivien Lou Chen in San Francisco at vchen1@bloomberg.net





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Canada’s Dollar Falls First Time in 4 Days as Oil, Stocks Slip

By Chris Fournier

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar depreciated after outperforming all other Group of 10 currencies this week as U.S. stock-index futures and crude oil fell and before the nation’s central bank meets next week to set monetary policy.

The Canadian currency rose 4.6 percent against its U.S. counterpart from July 10 through yesterday as corporate earnings and a rebound in commodity prices sharpened investor appetite for risk. Speculation that New York-based commercial lender CIT Group Inc. is on the verge of bankruptcy may damp that enthusiasm.

“The CIT situation is helping a subtext of risk aversion make itself felt even during what has been a rather positive earnings season,” said Sacha Tihanyi, a currency strategist in Toronto at Scotia Capital Inc., a unit of Canada’s third-largest bank. “This is putting some pressure on” the Canadian dollar.

The currency weakened 0.5 percent to C$1.1186 per U.S. dollar at 8:08 a.m. in Toronto, from C$1.1126 yesterday, when it reached C$1.1118, the strongest since June 12. One Canadian dollar buys 89.40 U.S. cents.

Canada’s statistics agency is scheduled to report inflation data tomorrow at 7 a.m. in Ottawa.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net





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China $2 Trillion Reserves Keep U.S. Stimulus Afloat

By Bloomberg News

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- China’s foreign-exchange reserves are surging again, helping the Obama administration sell unprecedented amounts of debt as it seeks to drag the world’s biggest economy out of a recession.

Stockpiles of currency rose by a record $178 billion in the second quarter to top $2 trillion for the first time, the People’s Bank of China said yesterday. The amount is close to two-thirds the size of China’s economy and the equivalent of Italy’s gross domestic product in 2006.

The cash holdings are growing as the central bank sells its currency, the yuan, to prevent an appreciation that would make the country’s exports more expensive. The yuan sales mean for all the calls by China and other emerging markets for an alternative to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, it has little choice but to keep buying U.S. government assets.

“People are talking about whether the Chinese may actually one day dump the dollar and Treasuries because of the problem in the U.S., but they are missing the point,” said Stephen Jen, head of macroeconomics and currencies in London at BlueGold Capital LLP, which manages $1.1 billion. “The reserves are so big because China needs to keep the exchange rate stable for its exports. Therefore, they have to keep buying dollar assets.”

The need to temper gains in its currency led China, the biggest overseas holder of Treasuries, to more than double its holdings of U.S. government notes and bonds in three years to $763.5 billion in April, according to U.S. Treasury data. The amount was equivalent to 38 percent of its reserves at the time.

Stimulus Spending

President Barack Obama’s administration is seeking to sell a record amount of debt to pay for measures to revive the U.S. economy. New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that government borrowing may total $3.25 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30, almost four times the $892 billion in 2008, to finance the budget deficit.

“China’s reserves will allow the U.S. to run a higher fiscal deficit than other nations,” said Bilal Hafeez, the London-based global head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s biggest foreign-exchange trader. “Their rhetoric suggests they do want to diversify their reserves but the data suggests they are doing it in a measured way. There is no dumping dollars.”

The reluctance to let the yuan appreciate when the world is mired in the deepest recession in six decades means that China will keep accumulating U.S. debt, even if the amount of its purchases declines, according to economists at RGE Monitor, a New York-based research firm headed by economist Nouriel Roubini.

“Despite China’s concerns about the value of its large stock of U.S. assets, reserve diversification will continue to be difficult,” the RGE economists wrote in a report yesterday.

Cash Surge

China’s reserves have increased by almost 14 times this decade as exports generated a trade surplus that pumped in cash. Capital Economics Ltd., a London-based consultancy, estimates that exports will account for 30 percent of China’s gross domestic product this year.

Win Thin, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., said investors have also recently pushed cash into emerging markets such as China, amid signs that their economies will recover more quickly than those of developed nations. China’s growth rebounded to 7.9 percent in the second quarter, from 6.1 percent in the first, the government said today.

Such investment inflows mean that “policy makers bought dollars and sold local currency in order to prevent currency appreciation,” Thin said in a report yesterday. He predicted that China will continue intervening to keep the yuan trading at about 6.83 per dollar through the end of this year.

Yuan’s Stability

The yuan’s value has barely changed in the past year, following a 21 percent appreciation in the three years after China scrapped its dollar peg in July 2005. The demand for dollars conflicts with China’s calls for the world to consider drawing away from the greenback as its sole reserve currency.

“As the Chinese were becoming more vocal in regard to the need to move away from the U.S. dollar, they were in actual fact buying more dollars than ever,” said Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan urged the International Monetary Fund in March to move toward creating a “super-sovereign reserve currency” to replace the dollar. Premier Wen Jiabao said the same month that he was “worried” the dollar would weaken.

Speaking to Al-Arabiya television yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner expressed confidence that the dollar “will remain the principal reserve currency.” The dollar rose 0.2 percent to $1.4083 per euro at 3:11 p.m. and has declined less than 1 percent this year.

Dollar Dominance

The dollar’s share of global reserves increased to 65 percent in the first three months of this year, the most since 2007, according to the International Monetary Fund.

China is trying to reduce its reliance on the U.S. currency in other ways. It signed 650 billion yuan ($95 billion) of currency swaps since December with nations from Argentina to Belarus and is encouraging trading partners to use the yuan to settle cross-border trade.

The government is considering purchasing $50 billion of the IMF’s bonds after the Group of 20 leaders on April 2 gave the international lender approval to boost its war chest by $500 billion.

Investment Flops

China can afford that and more because its reserves will increase by more than $200 billion annually in coming years, said Wang Tao, an economist with UBS AG in Beijing. Increasing its strategic oil reserve to 90 days of imports, the nation’s target for 2020, would take another $50 billion, Wang added.

China Investment Corp., the nation’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, lost money on its first investments. It bought a $3 billion stake in Blackstone Group LP stake in May 2007 at a 4.5 percent discount to the initial public offering price of $31. The stock now trades at $9.97. It agreed to purchase $5 billion of Morgan Stanley stock with the lowest possible price at $48.07 in December 2007. Those shares trade at $28.80.

The country’s top currency regulator this week relaxed curbs on overseas investment by local businesses, allowing more funds to flow abroad starting Aug. 1.

All those measures are unlikely to reduce reserves or curb China’s need to purchase U.S. debt, said Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the State Information Center, an affiliate of the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency.

“The reserves will continue to pile up,” said Zhu. “Over the short term, there isn’t much China can do but continue to buy Treasuries while hoping the U.S. economy can recover as soon as possible so that the investment won’t suffer too much loss.”

--Kevin Hamlin, Li Yanping, Anchalee Worrachate, Simon Kennedy, Sandy Hendry, Justin Carrigan. Editors: Brenda Batten, Daniel Moss

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.net





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