Economic Calendar

Monday, December 22, 2008

Belgian Business Confidence Declines to Record Low

By Fergal O’Brien

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Belgian business confidence declined to a record low in December as the global financial crisis pushed Europe’s economy deeper into a recession.

The confidence index for Belgium, whose government is reeling from a crisis surrounding the state-organized breakup of Fortis, plunged to minus 31.3 from minus 23.7 in November, the Brussels-based National Bank of Belgium said today in an e-mailed statement. That is the lowest since the data were first collated in 1980. Economists expected a decline to minus 26, according to the median of 19 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Business and consumer confidence across Europe is tumbling as the financial turmoil saps demand for exports and unemployment rises. In Belgium, where the prime minister offered to resign over allegations his government tried to interfere with a court ruling on the Fortis breakup, the economy is forecast to shrink in 2009 for the first time in 16 years, the central bank said this month.

Confidence in Europe is “at a record low already. How deep, how low can you go?” Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels, said on Bloomberg Television today. “Unfortunately, there is some scope to see a further deterioration.”

European executive and consumer confidence in the economic outlook has dropped to a 15-year low even after interest-rate cuts and government stimulus measures aimed at battling the impact of the financial crisis. Executive sentiment in Germany, the region’s largest economy, slumped to the lowest level in more than a quarter-century in December, data showed last week.

Slowest Pace

Belgium’s economy grew at the slowest pace in five years in the third quarter and the drop in business confidence indicates the slump will extend into 2009. Gross domestic product will contract 0.2 percent next year after growing 1.4 percent this year, the central bank forecast on Dec. 8, revising a June forecast for 2009 expansion of 1.5 percent.

The Belgian king is working to name a new prime minister by Christmas after Yves Leterme tendered his resignation Dec. 19, with the fate of Fortis, formerly the nation’s largest financial- services firm, hanging in the balance. Leterme yesterday ruled himself out as the leader of a new government.

Leterme’s coalition collapsed after the Justice minister quit because the nation’s highest appeals court didn’t clear him from allegations of interfering with a ruling that blocked the sale of Fortis assets to BNP Paribas SA.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fergal O’Brien in Dublin at fobrien@bloomberg.net.





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China Cuts Key Rates for Fifth Time in Three Months

By Li Yanping and Kevin Hamlin

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- China cut interest rates for the fifth time in three months after trade growth collapsed because of recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

The one-year lending rate will drop by 0.27 percentage point to 5.31 percent and the deposit rate by the same amount to 2.25 percent from tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its Web site. The central bank also reduced the proportion of deposits lenders must set aside as reserves by 0.5 percentage point.

Today’s measures are likely to be supplemented by a second stimulus plan aimed at spurring consumer spending following a 4 trillion yuan ($584 billion) package in November that was focused on infrastructure. China’s exports fell for the first time in seven years last month, imports plunged and manufacturing shrank by a record, threatening to push the world’s fourth-largest economy into its deepest slowdown in two decades.

“Monetary policy is now playing a supportive role to the main show in town: fiscal stimulus,” said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai

The reserve requirement will drop to 15.5 percent for big banks and to 13.5 percent for smaller ones effective Dec. 25. The reduction will release a further 300 billion yuan of possible lending, according to Green.

‘Less Aggressive’

“The surprise is how small the move is,” said Mark Williams, an economist with Capital Economics in London. “There’s been a sudden very rapid deterioration in all China’s economic data over the last 8 to 12 weeks.”

China’s economic growth may slow to 5 percent next year, less than half the 11.9 percent expansion in 2007, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. The World Bank forecasts the economy will expand by 7.5 percent in 2009. The government is targeting an 8 percent expansion.

China cut interest rates by 1.08 percentage points last month, the biggest reduction in 11 years.

The Federal Reserve lowered the main U.S. interest rate to as low as zero for the first time on Dec. 16, as policy makers seek to revive credit and end the longest slump in a quarter- century. The Bank of Japan cut its benchmark rate to 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent three days later.

China’s CSI 300 Index fell for the first time in six days, closing 1.7 percent lower before the rate announcement. The yuan was little changed, closing 0.07 percent lower at 6.8510 per dollar in Shanghai.

Social Stability

China’s slowdown threatens to trigger unrest as factories close and unemployment climbs in the world’s most populous nation.

Uniden Corp., a Japanese maker of wireless communication gear including cordless phones, said Dec. 11 it will eliminate 6,200 jobs in China. Zhang Ping, China’s top economic planner, warned last month of the risk of “massive unemployment.”

China’s cabinet, the State Council, pledged yesterday to give more power to local governments to support their property markets and end a nationwide real-estate slump. The government said Dec. 13 it will boost money supply by 17 percent next year to encourage lending and buoy domestic consumption.

“The cuts are less aggressive than expected,” said Kevin Lai, an economist with the Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong. “The central bank may want to save bullets until next quarter and wait to see how the policies announced so far work.”

Lai and economists at HSBC Holdings Plc and Capital Economics Ltd. had anticipated at least a 54-basis-point reduction.

‘Worst Case’

The government has switched from battling inflation in the first half of the year to guarding against the risk that falling prices will contribute to the economy spiraling down. Inflation was the slowest in 22 months in November.

Exports fell 2.2 percent last month after growing 19.2 percent in October. Imports plunged 17.9 percent.

China’s exporters are facing greater payment risks and rising shipment costs as some importers grow short of cash and trade finance costs surge, Vice Trade Minister Fu Ziying said over the weekend. Compensation payouts by China’s export credit insurance company almost tripled in the first 10 months of this year, Fu said.

China needs to prepare for a “worst case scenario” as the global economic slump deepens, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Dec. 4.

The central bank may cut its benchmark rate by a further 27 basis points and reduce the bank reserve ratio by as much as 100 basis points in January to avert the risk of deflation and add liquidity before the Chinese New Year holiday, Daiwa’s Lai said.

The government aims for an 8 percent expansion to generate jobs and avoid social instability, China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu Mingkang said in Beijing on Dec. 13.

To contact the reporter on this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at yli16@bloomberg.net;





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Hungary Cuts Interest Rates, Second Time in Two Weeks

By Zoltan Simon

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Hungarian central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for a second time in two weeks and said it may reduce it further as inflation slows more quickly than expected and country risks subside.

The Magyar Nemzeti Bank in Budapest lowered the two-week deposit rate to 10 percent from 10.5 percent, in line with the forecast of 21 of 23 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Two had expected a 1 percentage-point reduction. The move leaves Romania with the European Union’s highest interest rate at 10.25 percent.

Emerging markets have been battered by the global credit crisis as investors dump riskier assets in a flight to safety. Hungary raised interest rates by 3 percentage points on Oct. 22 to defend the forint and secured an international loan to avert a default. The bank has reduced rates three times in five weeks, by 0.5 percent each time, as the forint and bond markets stabilized.

“The base rate may be reduced in the coming months as long as capital flow is maintained and as the stability of the financial system allows,” the rate-setting Monetary Council said in a statement after the meeting.

The forint strengthened to 264.77 against the euro at 3:20 p.m., from 265.55 late on Dec. 19.

Slowdown’s Impact

An economic slowdown in Europe’s biggest economies, especially Germany, have slowed the flow of goods from eastern Europe and helped eased inflationary pressures. The Hungarian move comes after the Czech Republic and Slovakia also cut their key rates this month. Poland is expected to do the same when its Monetary Policy Council meeting ends tomorrow.

Hungarian policy makers also discussed cutting the interest rate by 0.75 percentage point and a full percentage point and “narrowly” decided to cut by a half-point, Governor Andras Simor told reporters today.

“Strong disinflation” and a slowing economy justify lower interest rates, while financial risks justify a “restrained” pace to rate cuts, he said.

Hungary’s ability to continue cutting rates hinges on the forint, which reflects country risk as perceived by investors, central bank President Andras Simor told Magyar Narancs weekly in an interview published on Dec. 18.

Other considerations for rate-setters include global risk indicators and Hungary’s relative position, as well as liquidity in the banking industry and government bond market and yields on local assets, Simor said.

IMF Bailout

“The only reason why the central bank has not been more aggressive in cutting rates seems to be the risk of a forint sell- off,” Bartosz Pawlowski, an economist at TD Securities Ltd. in London, said in a note to clients.

The forint fell to a record against the euro in October, forcing the central bank to raise the benchmark rate to 11.5 percent from 8.5 percent on Oct. 22, the biggest rate increase in five years. The country also secured 20 billion euros ($28 billion) in International Monetary Fund-led loans to shore up the economy, which is headed for its worst recession in 15 years.

The forint has replaced inflation as the top concern of policy makers as price pressures ease with a slowing economy, which contracted in the third quarter and may already be in a recession. The central bank expects the economy to shrink as much as 1.7 percent next year.

“The central bank doesn’t have to worry about inflation any more; the recession will do the job,” Budapest-based Intesa Sanpaolo SpA economists, led by Mariann Trippon, said in a Dec. 18 note to clients.

‘Steep’ Slowdown

Consumer-price growth slowed to an annual 4.2 percent in November, more than a two-year low, from 5.1 percent in the previous month, as crude oil prices, which fueled inflation last year, tumbled. Inflation peaked at 9 percent in March 2007. The bank targets an inflation of 3 percent.

“The inflation rate, based on recent trends, may continue to moderate and drop well below the 3 percent target in the relevant monetary policy horizon,” the Monetary Council said in its statement today.

The “steepness of the slowdown” in consumer-price growth is “surprising to everyone, even for us,” Simor said on Dec. 11. The bank expects the rate, which has exceeded policy makers’ target since August 2006, to fall to between 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent next year and to between 1.5 percent and 1.9 percent in 2010 from an estimated 6.2 percent this year.

Gradual Pace

The central bank voted 8-3 last month to unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by a half-point, to 11 percent, starting to roll back October’s emergency increase in anticipation of slower inflation. Policy makers voted 8-2 to reduce the rate by another half-point at an extraordinary rate- decision meeting on Dec. 8, citing reduced country risk.

Even as slowing inflation opens the way for more rate cuts, the IMF has urged Hungary to use a “gradual and cautious” pace in reducing the key deposit rate.

“The reduction in the interest rate has been appropriate,” James Morsink, the head of the Washington-based lender’s delegation to Budapest, told reporters on Dec. 15. “Further rate cuts should be gradual and cautious.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Zoltan Simon in Budapest at zsimon@bloomberg.net.





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Natural Gas Futures Fall on Outlook for Higher Temperatures

By Reg Curren

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas fell for a fourth day on speculation higher temperatures will reduce demand for the heating fuel beginning later this week.

Warmer weather is expected to build into the Midwest and Northeast after a cold period ends around Dec. 24, according to forecaster MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather of Rockville, Maryland. Higher temperatures in the Midwest, where 72 percent of households rely on gas for heating, will limit withdrawals from storage, helping to keep supplies above normal.

“The weather maps look to be warming up,” said Michael Rose, a director of trading at Angus Jackson Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. “We’re in holiday markets. No one is willing to take a stand because they want to go away and not think about the market.”

Natural gas for January delivery fell 3.4 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $5.30 per million British thermal units at 9:30 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It earlier dropped to $5.22, the lowest since Aug. 27, 2007. Gas futures declined 2.8 percent last week.

The low temperature in Chicago may rise to 20 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 7 Celsius) by Dec. 26 from tomorrow’s forecast minimum of 2 degrees, according to EarthSat.

A recession in the U.S. has cut demand from industrial users of the fuel, keeping supplies at above-average amounts for this time of year. Usage may slow more over the next two weeks as the Christmas and New Year’s holidays prompt plant closures in much of the U.S. and Canada.

“The natural gas market is caught in a bearish trend as a result of the weakening economy,” Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy consulting company in New Canaan, Connecticut, said in a morning note today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Reg Curren in Calgary at rcurren@bloomberg.net.





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Fronteer to Bid for Remaining Shares of Aurora Energy

By Kevin Orland

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Fronteer Development Group Inc., the owner of the Northumberland gold project in Nevada, plans to bid for the Aurora Energy Resources Inc. shares it doesn’t own for about C$109.4 million ($91 million) to add uranium deposits.

Aurora’s investors would receive 0.825 of a Fronteer share for each share they hold, Vancouver-based Fronteer said today in a statement. The offer is more than double Aurora’s most recent closing price.

The acquisition would give Fronteer full control of Aurora, which explores for uranium in the Central Mineral Belt of Labrador in Canada. Fronteer is Aurora’s largest investor, holding about 42 percent of the shares.

Investors holding 26 percent of Aurora’s shares have agreed to the offer, Fronteer said.

Fronteer rose 11 cents, or 3.6 percent, to C$3.13 in Toronto Stock Exchange trading Dec. 19. The shares have declined 69 percent this year. Vancouver-based Aurora rose 2 cents, or 2.1 percent, to 97 cents in Toronto Dec. 19. The shares have dropped 93 percent this year.

For Related News: Fronteer earnings: FRG CN TCNI ERN Top metals news: METT





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Petrobras Won’t Feel Pinch in ’09, CEO Gabrielli Says

By Jeb Blount and Diana Kinch

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA won’t be affected by the credit crisis next year and is still analyzing whether to add two refineries, according to Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli.

The plants, which aren’t in the Rio de Janeiro-based oil company’s current five-year plan, will be considered by the board of directors next month, a spokeswoman said. Meeting with reporters today in Rio, Gabrielli said exploration and production projects next year won’t be affected by the credit crisis.

One of those is the start of offshore test production at Tupi, the largest oil discovery in the Americas since 1976, Gabrielli said. Investments under the 2009-2013 five-year plan won’t be announced until next year, the state-controlled company known as Petrobras said today in a statement.

Petrobras is expected to include two new refineries in that plan, according to government and company officials. Petrobras aims to build the plants in the states of Maranhao and Ceara in northeastern Brazil, according to Edison Lobao, Brazil’s energy minister.

“Work is already under way on refineries in Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro,” Paulo Roberto da Costa, Petrobras’ refining chief, told reporters at the meeting today in Rio. “The premium projects in Maranhao and Ceara are still at the preliminary study phase.”

The Maranhao refinery may have the potential to process 600,000 barrels a day of oil, while the Ceara plant may have capacity of 300,000 barrels a day, according to Petrobras. Pernambuco is expected to process 200,000 barrels a day and the Rio facility will have a 150,000-barrel-a-day capacity.

The premium refineries would produce low-sulfur fuels primarily for export to the European and U.S. markets.

Authorized Spending

Investment of 40 billion reais ($16.8 billion) next year, announced in August by Dilma Rousseff, the chief of staff to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is a preliminary figure that excludes some areas, the Petrobras spokeswoman said today.

Petrobras received approval from Brazil’s legislature to spend as much as 72 billion reais next year, Gabrielli said. Decisions haven’t been made on how much the company actually will spend.

The credit crisis that has pinched budgets and spending worldwide isn’t likely to begin affecting Petrobras until 2013, if at all, Gabrielli told reporters today.

Petrobras preferred shares, the company’s most-traded class of stock, rose for the first day in three, gaining 10 centavos to 23.45 reais at 12:43 p.m. in Sao Paulo trading.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeb Blount at jblount@bloomberg.net; Diana Kinch in Rio de Janeiro dkinch1@bloomberg.net.





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Oil Rises as OPEC Restates Its Commitment to Stabilize Prices

By Mark Shenk

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose after OPEC restated its commitment to enact record production cuts announced last week in the face of a global economic slowdown.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is “determined” to stabilize oil markets, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters in Doha, Qatar, yesterday.

Crude oil for February delivery rose 31 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $42.67 a barrel at 9:34 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have dropped 71 percent from a record $147.27 on July 11.

Brent crude oil for February settlement increased 3 cents to $44.03 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.





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Putin to Host ‘Gas OPEC’ as Russia Seeks Global Role

By Lucian Kim

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will host energy ministers from the world’s largest natural-gas exporters in Moscow tomorrow as Russia seeks to take a leading role among producers of the fuel.

Putin, who turned OAO Gazprom into a global energy company during two presidential terms, will personally open the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, which is set to agree on a charter transforming it from a loose, consultative body into a formal organization with a permanent secretariat.

This year’s annual meeting was delayed several times amid reports that member nations disagreed over the future role of the group. Western consumer countries have warned against the formation of a “gas OPEC,” or a cartel modeled after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Gas Forum nations include OPEC members Iran, Algeria and Qatar.

“Maybe it’s a bright image, but the mechanisms of OPEC can’t be used on the gas market,” Alexander Medvedev, Gazprom’s chief of exports, said last week. “In this case, it’s not necessary to make comparisons.”

Russia, which supplies a quarter of Europe’s gas through pipelines, is locked into long-term contracts that don’t allow the flexibility and reach of the world oil market. Yet as demand grows for liquefied natural gas -- gas chilled to a liquid for transport by tanker -- a global market is forming that reduces the importance of pipelines and encourages spot trades.

‘Gas Troika’

Gazprom plans to start loading its first LNG cargo in February, opening up new markets for Russian gas in Japan, South Korea and North America. The state-run company formed a “gas troika” in October with Qatar and Iran for joint exploration and production projects. Together, the three countries hold more than half of the world’s gas reserves.

Four cities are vying to host the Gas Forum’s permanent secretariat, Medvedev said. St. Petersburg will compete for the honor with Algiers, Tehran and Doha, Qatar, he said.

During his presidency from 2000 to May this year, Putin consolidated state control over the country’s oil and gas industry, with Gazprom as the flagship for Russia’s new economic might. The Moscow-based company is pursuing projects from Libya and Vietnam to Alaska and Bolivia.

After oil prices started tumbling from a record in July, Putin’s deputy, Igor Sechin, began pushing for closer coordination with OPEC, of which Russia is not a member.

OPEC was founded in 1960 by Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum held its first meeting in Tehran in 2001. The last ministerial meeting was held in Doha in April 2007. Forum members include Egypt, Nigeria, Malaysia and Trinidad & Tobago.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lucian Kim in Moscow at lkim3@bloomberg.net





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EDF Receives EU Approval to Purchase British Energy

By Tara Patel

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Electricite de France SA, the world’s biggest operator of nuclear plants, won conditional European Union antitrust approval to buy British Energy Group Plc for 12.5 billion pounds ($18.7 billion), allowing the French utility to become the largest power producer in the U.K.

Approval from the European Commission, the 27-nation EU’s regulator in Brussels, is dependent on EDF’s agreement to sell two non-nuclear power plants in the U.K., electricity in the British wholesale market and land on which a new reactor may be built, the commission said today in a statement.

The Paris-based, state-controlled utility agreed in September to buy British Energy, the U.K.’s largest electricity producer, and gain control of eight atomic stations. The purchase will add commercial clients to the 5 million households supplied by EDF’s British unit and allow the company to build at least four new-generation Evolutionary Power Reactors in the U.K.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is seeking to expand nuclear power to replace aging generators, cut energy imports and lower carbon dioxide output. The U.K. this year passed a law requiring an 80 percent reduction in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels. Under the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012, Britain is obliged to cut greenhouse gases 12.5 percent.

‘More Expensive’ Deal

The terms of the EU endorsement “will make the deal more expensive for EDF because it will get less existing generating capacity, but this was to be expected,” Standard & Poor’s equity research analyst Alicia Carrasco said today by telephone. “When EDF decided to buy British Energy it was looking for future growth in nuclear power in the U.K.” Some 77 percent of France’s power is generated by the utility’s 58 reactors in the country.

EDF fell as much as 2.4 percent to 40.65 euros in Paris trading, and was at 41.51 euros as of 2:10 p.m. local time. British Energy was little changed at 770 pence in London.

“Although the combined entity would not have extremely high market shares, the commission found during its investigation that the transaction, as initially notified, would have been likely to raise serious competition concerns in four main areas,” the commission said in the statement.

The decision is conditional upon EDF’s commitment to divest the 790-megawatt gas-fired Sutton Bridge plant, owned by EDF Energy, and another at Eggborough, a 1,960-megawatt coal-fired station owned by British Energy. Bondholders have an option they can exercise next year, which they got as part of a 2002 deal that prevented British Energy from collapsing.

Competition Concerns

The EU was concerned that the merged company may “withdraw electricity supplies from the market in order to increase price,” according to the statement. That “would have led to a reduction of liquidity which could have had negative effects in both the wholesale and the retail supply markets.”

EDF confirmed plans to sell the two power stations and 5 to 10 terawatt-hours of electricity a year from 2012 to 2015.

“The European Commission’s decision marks a major step toward the conclusion of the acquisition of British Energy,” EDF said today in a statement, adding that it expects the takeover to become effective “in early January 2009.”

The EU also asked EDF to unconditionally divest a site potentially suitable for building a new nuclear station located at either Dungeness or Heysham in Britain, and to end one of the merged entity’s three grid-connection agreements with National Grid Plc at Hinkley Point in southwest England.

Hinkley Linkup

EDF on Nov. 3 agreed with National Grid to connect a power plant to the U.K. transmission network at the site of the Hinkley Point nuclear station, where it plans to build two reactors.

The commission expressed concern that there are a “limited number of sites” for new atomic generators and “high concentration” in ownership. “British Energy owns many of the sites likely to be suitable for new nuclear build while EDF owns key land at two such locations,” it said.

When EDF announced the planned takeover Sept. 24, it agreed to sell land for nuclear development to competitors under an accord with the U.K. government to boost competition. EDF said at the time it planned to build two reactors at each of the Sizewell and Hinkley Point sites owned by British Energy, the first starting up in 2017.

EDF is seeking to connect a 1,770-megawatt plant to the grid at Hinkley Point from October 2019, according to information on National Grid’s Web site.

The commission asked EDF to sell the third grid connection because it would have gone “beyond its combined capacity expansion plans with the risk of unduly delaying power generation projects of its competitors.”

Wylfa Approval

EDF also owns land next to a government-owned nuclear plant at Wylfa on the Isle of Anglesey in Wales. The utility on Oct. 8 got approval to connect a new power station to the transmission network at Wylfa from October 2017 and said it is a “good potential site for new nuclear build.”

The U.K. Nuclear Decommissioning Authority has invited expressions of interest for land next to Wylfa as well as at the Bradwell and Oldbury atomic plants.

“Part of the agreement that we have with the government is to create a credible site portfolio for others,” Vincent de Rivaz, chief executive officer of EDF’s U.K. unit, said Sept. 24. The company will probably sell for profit the land it acquired adjacent to nuclear sites over the past three years, he said.

EDF is also expanding in the U.S. The utility agreed on Dec. 17 to buy a 50 percent stake in Constellation Energy Group Inc.’s five reactors for $4.5 billion, prompting Baltimore-based Constellation to abandon a plan to sell itself to Warren Buffett’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tara Patel in Paris at tpatel2@bloomberg.net; Matthew Newman in Brussels at Mnewman6@bloomberg.net.

By Tara Patel

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Electricite de France SA, the world’s biggest operator of nuclear plants, won conditional European Union antitrust approval to buy British Energy Group Plc for 12.5 billion pounds ($18.7 billion), allowing the French utility to become the largest power producer in the U.K.

Approval from the European Commission, the 27-nation EU’s regulator in Brussels, is dependent on EDF’s agreement to sell two non-nuclear power plants in the U.K., electricity in the British wholesale market and land on which a new reactor may be built, the commission said today in a statement.

The Paris-based, state-controlled utility agreed in September to buy British Energy, the U.K.’s largest electricity producer, and gain control of eight atomic stations. The purchase will add commercial clients to the 5 million households supplied by EDF’s British unit and allow the company to build at least four new-generation Evolutionary Power Reactors in the U.K.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is seeking to expand nuclear power to replace aging generators, cut energy imports and lower carbon dioxide output. The U.K. this year passed a law requiring an 80 percent reduction in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels. Under the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012, Britain is obliged to cut greenhouse gases 12.5 percent.

‘More Expensive’ Deal

The terms of the EU endorsement “will make the deal more expensive for EDF because it will get less existing generating capacity, but this was to be expected,” Standard & Poor’s equity research analyst Alicia Carrasco said today by telephone. “When EDF decided to buy British Energy it was looking for future growth in nuclear power in the U.K.” Some 77 percent of France’s power is generated by the utility’s 58 reactors in the country.

EDF fell as much as 2.4 percent to 40.65 euros in Paris trading, and was at 41.51 euros as of 2:10 p.m. local time. British Energy was little changed at 770 pence in London.

“Although the combined entity would not have extremely high market shares, the commission found during its investigation that the transaction, as initially notified, would have been likely to raise serious competition concerns in four main areas,” the commission said in the statement.

The decision is conditional upon EDF’s commitment to divest the 790-megawatt gas-fired Sutton Bridge plant, owned by EDF Energy, and another at Eggborough, a 1,960-megawatt coal-fired station owned by British Energy. Bondholders have an option they can exercise next year, which they got as part of a 2002 deal that prevented British Energy from collapsing.

Competition Concerns

The EU was concerned that the merged company may “withdraw electricity supplies from the market in order to increase price,” according to the statement. That “would have led to a reduction of liquidity which could have had negative effects in both the wholesale and the retail supply markets.”

EDF confirmed plans to sell the two power stations and 5 to 10 terawatt-hours of electricity a year from 2012 to 2015.

“The European Commission’s decision marks a major step toward the conclusion of the acquisition of British Energy,” EDF said today in a statement, adding that it expects the takeover to become effective “in early January 2009.”

The EU also asked EDF to unconditionally divest a site potentially suitable for building a new nuclear station located at either Dungeness or Heysham in Britain, and to end one of the merged entity’s three grid-connection agreements with National Grid Plc at Hinkley Point in southwest England.

Hinkley Linkup

EDF on Nov. 3 agreed with National Grid to connect a power plant to the U.K. transmission network at the site of the Hinkley Point nuclear station, where it plans to build two reactors.

The commission expressed concern that there are a “limited number of sites” for new atomic generators and “high concentration” in ownership. “British Energy owns many of the sites likely to be suitable for new nuclear build while EDF owns key land at two such locations,” it said.

When EDF announced the planned takeover Sept. 24, it agreed to sell land for nuclear development to competitors under an accord with the U.K. government to boost competition. EDF said at the time it planned to build two reactors at each of the Sizewell and Hinkley Point sites owned by British Energy, the first starting up in 2017.

EDF is seeking to connect a 1,770-megawatt plant to the grid at Hinkley Point from October 2019, according to information on National Grid’s Web site.

The commission asked EDF to sell the third grid connection because it would have gone “beyond its combined capacity expansion plans with the risk of unduly delaying power generation projects of its competitors.”

Wylfa Approval

EDF also owns land next to a government-owned nuclear plant at Wylfa on the Isle of Anglesey in Wales. The utility on Oct. 8 got approval to connect a new power station to the transmission network at Wylfa from October 2017 and said it is a “good potential site for new nuclear build.”

The U.K. Nuclear Decommissioning Authority has invited expressions of interest for land next to Wylfa as well as at the Bradwell and Oldbury atomic plants.

“Part of the agreement that we have with the government is to create a credible site portfolio for others,” Vincent de Rivaz, chief executive officer of EDF’s U.K. unit, said Sept. 24. The company will probably sell for profit the land it acquired adjacent to nuclear sites over the past three years, he said.

EDF is also expanding in the U.S. The utility agreed on Dec. 17 to buy a 50 percent stake in Constellation Energy Group Inc.’s five reactors for $4.5 billion, prompting Baltimore-based Constellation to abandon a plan to sell itself to Warren Buffett’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tara Patel in Paris at tpatel2@bloomberg.net; Matthew Newman in Brussels at Mnewman6@bloomberg.net.





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India’s Rupee Drops Most in Six Weeks on Imports, Stock Losses

By Anil Varma

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- India’s rupee fell the most in six weeks as some importers took advantage of the currency’s rally to a 2 1/2-month high to buy cheaper dollars.

The rupee weakened a second day as importers probably stepped up dollar purchases after the local currency gained 2.7 percent last week, the most since the five-day period ended Nov. 7. A drop in Asian stocks and currencies today added to speculation overseas funds are scaling back purchases of regional assets, trimming the rupee’s gains.

“Some sizeable import payment outflows, said to be defense-related, have brought the rupee down today,” said Sudarshan Bhatt, head of currency trading at state-owned Corporation Bank in Mumbai. “The negative trend in the stock market has added downward pressure on the rupee.”

The local currency declined 1.6 percent to 48.02 per dollar at the 5 p.m. close in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency may fall to 48.20 in the coming days, Bhatt said.

The rupee touched 46.86 in intraday trading on Dec. 19, the highest since Oct. 3, rebounding more than 8 percent from a record low of 50.615 reached on Dec. 2. The currency’s 17.8 percent loss this year is its biggest since 1991.

The South Asian nation’s import payments have risen an average 37.2 percent this year, compared with 24.5 percent in 2007, government data show.

Shares Decline

India’s benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index lost 1.7 percent today, snapping a two-day advance. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6 percent.

Overseas funds sold more Indian shares than they bought on Dec. 17 and Dec. 18, according to the latest data released by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

The rupee pared a three-week advance as the Japanese yen weakened against the euro and the dollar after the Finance Ministry in Tokyo said shipments from the world’s second-biggest economy fell 26.7 percent in November from a year earlier, the most since comparable data were made available in 1980.

“The rupee opened weaker tracking the broad trend across currency markets, particularly the yen’s losses,” said Paresh Nayar, chief of currency and fixed-income trading at Development Credit Bank Ltd. in Mumbai.

The yen declined to as low as 90.23 against the dollar in Tokyo from 89.31 late in New York on Dec. 19.

Offshore non-deliverable forward contracts showed traders increased bets for how far the rupee will fall in a month. The contracts indicate the rupee will trade at 48.35 a dollar a month from now, compared with expectations for a decline to 47.65 on Dec. 19.

Forwards are agreements in which assets are bought and sold at current prices for future delivery. Indian rupee forwards traded overseas are non-deliverable, meaning they are settled in dollars rather than the local currency.

To contact the reporters on this story: Anil Varma in Mumbai at avarma3@bloomberg.net.





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Taiwan Dollar, Stocks Slump as Global Recession Damps Exports

By Bob Chen

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan’s dollar weakened the most in seven years and stocks slumped on signs a global recession is cutting demand for the island’s electronics goods.

The island’s currency retreated against the U.S. dollar after its biggest weekly advance in a decade, before a report tomorrow that will probably show export orders fell the most since 2001. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the world’s largest contract maker of electronics, announced job cuts and Chairman Terry Gou told the United Evening News that the recession was three times worse than the company expected.

“Exports have been in a bad shape,” said Cindy Wang, a currency trader at Bank SinoPac in Taipei. “Gains in the local dollar are negative for competitiveness of exports.”

The local dollar weakened 1.2 percent to close at NT$32.930 against its U.S. counterpart at 4 p.m. local time, according to Taipei Forex Inc. That was the biggest drop since May 28, 2001. The currency rose 2.4 percent last week. The Taiex index lost 3.4 percent to close at 4,535.54, the most since a 3.7 percent drop on Dec. 12, after rising 4.8 percent last week.

Terry Gou’s comment on the economy raised concerns among some local investors,” said Robyn Hsu, who helps manage $4.9 billion funds at Capital Investment Trust Corp. in Taipei.

Export Slump

Export orders fell 13.6 percent in November from a year earlier, a Bloomberg News survey showed before a government report tomorrow. Another report tomorrow may show industrial production declined 15.7 percent last month from a year earlier, the biggest drop since September 2001, a separate survey indicated.

Japan’s exports fell 26.7 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The drop was the sharpest since comparable data were made available in 1980.

“Asian forecasters have been overestimating growth in recent months,” said Sean Callow, a currency strategist with Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “I would say the market has not fully priced in the 2009 outlook.”

Taiwan’s authorities signaled they weren’t alarmed by the decline. Taiwan’s dollar is “relatively stable,” the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) in Taipei said today. Policy makers last week intervened to check the currency’s advance, the China Times reported on Dec. 19.

The central bank bought U.S. dollars last week after exporters complained the local currency’s strength is hurting them, the Taipei-based Chinese-language newspaper said, citing traders it didn’t identify. Central banks intervene in currency markets by arranging sales or purchases of foreign exchange.

Bonds Decline

Taiwan’s 10-year government bonds fell for a third day before the finance ministry’s auction of NT$40 billion ($1.23 billion) of the debt tomorrow.

“Over the past week the market has reflected the negative sentiment toward tomorrow’s bond sale,” said Ernest Lee, a debt trader at Mega Securities Co., in Taipei. “The increasing amount of bonds is a bearish factor.”

The yield on the 2.125 percent bond maturing in September 2018 climbed 3.1 basis points to 1.441 percent, according to Gretai Securities Market, Taiwan’s biggest exchange for bonds. Its price fell 0.2876, or NT$287.6 per NT$100,000 face amount, to 106.1826. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

To contact the reporter on the story: Bob Chen in Hong Kong at bchen45@bloomberg.net




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Ruble Falls to 3-Year Low Versus the Dollar on Devaluation, Oil

By William Mauldin

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The ruble fell to the lowest in almost three years against the dollar as Russia devalued the currency against its dollar-euro basket and tumbling oil prices battered the economy.

The ruble weakened as much as 1 percent to 28.4567 versus the dollar, the lowest level since January 2006, and was at 28.3525 at 3:15 p.m. in Moscow. Bank Rossii today allowed the ruble to decline for the second time in three working days and the ninth time since Nov. 11, according to a central bank official who declined to be identified. The currency fell 17 percent against the dollar since the beginning of August.

“The central bank has a plan of devaluation before the end of the year, and they’re trying to fit it in,” said Denis Korshilov, head of foreign exchange at Citigroup Inc. in Moscow who expects the central bank to devalue the ruble by another 1 percent to 2 percent in the near term. “We still see some weakness in oil, and that’s definitely part of their operations.”

Russia’s Urals blend of crude traded at $39.82 a barrel today, or just 4 percent above its four-year low of $38.29 on Dec. 5. Russian oligarchs are vying for $78 billion of Kremlin loans to survive the credit squeeze as Russian companies prepare to meeting about $110 billion of foreign obligations due next year, according to the central bank, double the total owed in Brazil, India and China.

Funds Withdraw

An internationally condemned war with Georgia, a plunge in oil prices and the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression caused investors to withdraw $211 billion from Russia since August, according to BNP Paribas SA. Bank Rossii drained $162.7 billion, or 27 percent, from its foreign-currency reserves, the world’s third-largest, to prevent a sudden devaluation from causing a repeat of the bank runs of 1998, when the ruble tumbled 71 percent against the dollar.

The ruble fell 1.3 percent to 39.7050 against the euro. It weakened 1 percent to 33.4662 against the basket, made up of about 55 percent dollars and the rest euros and used to protect Russian exporters from foreign-exchange fluctuations.

Barclays Capital says Russia’s economy will sink into a recession next year as the price of Urals crude, the country’s export oil blend, traded below the $70 a barrel average needed to balance the budget in 2009. Industrial production shrank the most last month since the economic collapse 10 years ago. Standard & Poor’s cut Russia’s long-term debt rating last week for the first time in nine years on concern the country is wasting reserves defending the currency.

Russia’s currency reserves fell $1.6 billion to $435.4 billion in the week to Dec. 12, compared with a drop of $17.9 billion the previous week, the central bank said today.

Depreciation Forecasts

Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. are forecasting the ruble will lose as much as 25 percent over the next year as sliding oil erodes Russia’s $91.2 billion current-account surplus. Troika Dialog, the nation’s oldest investment bank, is calling for a one-time depreciation of as much as 20 percent versus the basket in late January after the holiday period. Commerzbank AG expects the currency to be gradually devalued to 35 versus the basket.

Crude oil for February delivery rose 0.6 percent to $42.60 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

After averaging 7 percent growth in the eight years to 2007, Russia’s economy may shrink as the reduction in oil revenues erodes the country’s $91.2 billion current-account surplus. Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach was the first government official to suggest the economy is headed for a recession in remarks to reporters last week.

Russia is aiming to free float the ruble by 2011.

Russia’s benchmark 30-year Eurobond was little changed today, yielding 10.01 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: William Mauldin in Moscow at wmauldin1@bloomberg.net.





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Bonuses of Currency Traders Fall Least on Wall Street

By Liz Capo McCormick

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The most volatile foreign-exchange markets since at least 1992 means currency traders will see the smallest pay cuts as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression wipes out bonuses on Wall Street.

While bonuses, which account for the bulk of annual pay for traders and investment bankers, will fall an average 45 percent this year, currency traders will see declines of about 15 percent from 2007, the least of any department, according to Options Group, a New York-based consulting firm. Top executives at New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co., gave up their bonuses as banks reported $1 trillion in writedowns and losses since the start of last year.

The biggest drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1931, a $100-a-barrel collapse in oil prices and the largest losses in corporate debt led to 200,000 job cuts at banks around the world. Yet data from the Comptroller of the Currency show foreign-exchange trading revenue at U.S. commercial banks rose 66 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. Trading accelerated after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September.

“Our team had been working long hours all year, but the days grew exponentially” after the Sept. 15 bankruptcy filing of New York-based Lehman, said Russell LaScala, head of North America foreign exchange at Deutsche Bank AG in New York.

Foreign-exchange desks of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank and UBS AG of Zurich, the world’s two largest currency traders, posted three consecutive quarters of record revenue from foreign exchange, according to quarterly earnings reports. The firms didn’t break out the revenue figures.

‘Robust’ Business

A trader who has been a vice president for three years will get on average a bonus of $350,000 to $450,000, according to Options Group, which started tracking pay and hiring more than a decade ago. Global heads of foreign exchange trading will receive average bonuses of $3.5 million to $4.5 million, down 10 percent from last year.

“The top performers’ bonuses are going to be cut conservatively because they had record years, like the foreign exchange people,” said Bob Reed, co-chief operating officer and co-founder of the Options Group. “I see no limitations on volatility, so that business will go forward pretty robustly.”

Volatility, which fuels increased trading and revenue for banks, surged to record levels in the weeks following Lehman’s bankruptcy as investors unwound holdings of higher-yielding assets to repay low-cost yen- and dollar-denominated loans.

Implied Volatility

So-called implied volatility on options for major exchange rates reached a record 26.55 percent on Oct. 24, from this year’s low of 9.27 percent in August, according to data compiled by New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. Traders use implied volatility to gauge expectations for currency swings and in setting options prices.

The bank’s index, which began tracking implied volatility on three-month options in June 1992, averaged 8.87 percent for the five years prior to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in September 2007. The index was 21.08 percent today.

“The spike in market volatility led to wider spreads and higher trading volumes, driven by both hedging and risk management needs,” said Fabian Shey, global co-head of foreign exchange and money markets at UBS in London. “Facing pronounced movements in underlying equity markets and also currency markets, asset managers had an increased need for currency hedging.”

Foreign-exchange contracts traded at the CME Group Inc., the world’s largest futures market, surged in September to a record 835,000 per day, a 32 percent increase from a year earlier, to a notional value of $111 billion.

‘Volume Exploded’

“As volatility started to rise, the increase in business was a result of clients trying to proactively position themselves,” Deutsche Bank’s LaScala said. “When the whole de- leveraging started, foreign exchange volume exploded as people were trying to take their risk down.”

U.S. commercial banks reported $2.1 billion in foreign- exchange trading revenue in the second quarter, a 66 percent increase from the same period a year earlier, according to the latest data from the Treasury’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Currencies revenue gained 14 percent in the first quarter.

Foreign-exchange trading was about the only bright spot on Wall Street this year.

While Treasuries have returned 14.7 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s Treasury Master Index, average daily trading this year among the 17 primary dealers of U.S. government securities is $570.7 billion, compared with $571.6 billion in 2007, data compiled by the Federal Reserve show.

Takeovers, Issuance

Investment banking fees fell as takeovers shrank 36 percent from 2007. Fees for advising on mergers and acquisitions dropped 34 percent to an estimated $63 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and New York-based research firm Freeman & Co. U.S. companies sold $859.4 billion of bonds this year, down 26 percent from 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The meltdown of the U.S. mortgage market that led to a freeze in global credit forced traders to abandon higher-risk assets and pay back loans taken out in yen, causing the currency to soar to a 13-year high against the dollar as investors pared so-called carry trades. The U.S. dollar gained against other major currencies through November as investors sought a haven from global turmoil.

The exodus into the dollar and yen established a trend for traders to follow, according to Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex. The New York-based online-currency trading firm’s volume surged 37 percent this year, including a jump of 157 percent in September and 187 percent in October, she said.

Dollar Index

ICE’s Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar versus a basket of currencies comprised of the euro, yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, increased 15 percent this year to a peak of 88.46 on Nov. 21. Since then the index fell 8.3 percent to 80.902. The yen has appreciated 24 percent this year versus the U.S. dollar to 90 yen.

The billions of dollars made available by the Fed to other central banks and intervention to support local currencies by South Korea and other developing nations helped bolster trading, according to Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales in London at Mizuho Capital Markets. Central banks intervene when they buy or sell currencies to influence exchange rates.

The Fed set up currency swap lines with more than a dozen other central banks. Arrangements with Europe, the U.K. and Japan, are open-ended, allowing the Fed’s counterparts to draw as many dollars as they need. The value of the Fed’s System Open Market Account rose to $304.5 billion, from $87.8 billion at the end of June, due to the increased dollar funding provided to central banks through the swap lines.

Central Bank ‘Animals’

“The biggest animals involved in foreign exchange are the central banks,” said Jones. “The combination of clear trends in the market and ample liquidity has helped foreign exchange do well this year.”

Foreign-exchange funds had their biggest monthly returns in October since 2003, according to funds tracked by Stamford, Connecticut-based Parker Global Strategies LLC. Currency funds gained 2.53 percent in October, according to the firm, whose Parker FX Index tracks 68 firms managing more than $36 billion.

“People in foreign exchange are still getting recruited,” said Jeanne Branthover, head of the global financial-services practice at recruiting firm Boyden Global Executive Search in New York. “Firms are saying to recruiters like us that they are always looking for the best talent in foreign exchange because it is an area that will still be revenue generating in 2009.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Liz Capo McCormick in New York at Emccormick7@bloomberg.net





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Canada’s Dollar Rises on Commercial-Paper Plan, Crude-Oil Gain

By Michael J. Moore

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s currency rose for the first time in three days as the Globe and Mail reported the government reached a deal with banks to restructure C$32 billion ($26 billion) of insolvent commercial paper and as crude oil gained.

“Asset-backed commercial paper was one of the lingering uncertainties about the credit market in Canada, so this has removed that uncertainty,” said David Watt, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. “If you start looking around the world at where you want to put your money, with the countries least exposed to risk, Canada is one of the few that remains on the list.”

The Canadian dollar rose 0.7 percent to C$1.2063 per U.S. dollar at 8:56 a.m. in Toronto, from C$1.2152 on Dec. 19. One Canadian dollar buys 82.90 U.S. cents.

The commercial-paper agreement that the government reached with banks including Deutsche Bank AG and Merrill Lynch & Co. over the weekend should give investors access to their money by January unless there are any last-minute complications, the Globe and Mail reported today, citing unidentified people. The asset-backed commercial paper hasn’t traded since August 2007.

The agreement still requires a bankruptcy judge’s final approval, which may come as early as today or tomorrow, the Globe and Mail said.

Crude oil for February delivery rose as much as $1.08, or 2.6 percent, to $43.44 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil is the largest component of the Bank of Canada’s Commodity Price Index, accounting for 21 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net





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Yen Falls Versus Euro, Dollar on Record Drop in Japan’s Exports

By Ye Xie and Lukanyo Mnyanda

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The yen weakened against the euro and the dollar as a record plunge in Japanese exports last month signaled the world’s second-largest economy was falling deeper into a recession.

The ruble fell to the lowest level against the dollar in almost three years as Russia devalued the currency and tumbling oil prices this year battered its economy. The dollar weakened against the euro before data this week forecast to show U.S. consumer spending and durable goods orders declined.

“When Japan’s trade performance deteriorates, the yen tends to weaken,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist in Toronto at TD Securities Inc., a unit of Canada’s second- largest bank. “Japan’s growth outlook is concerning.”

The yen dropped 1.1 percent to 125.60 per euro at 9:36 a.m. in New York, from 124.22 on Dec. 19, paring its gain this year to 30 percent. The yen depreciated 0.5 percent to 89.74 per dollar from 89.31 and reached 90.23, the weakest level since Dec. 16. The yen may decline to 102 per dollar by the end of 2009, according to Osborne. The dollar weakened 0.6 percent to $1.3994 per euro from $1.3912. It slid to $1.4719 on Dec. 18, the weakest level since Sept. 25.

The ruble weakened as much as 1 percent to 28.4651 versus the dollar, the lowest level since January 2006, as Bank Rossii allowed the currency to decline for the second time in three working days and the ninth time since Nov. 11, according to a central bank official who declined to be identified. The currency has declined 17 percent against the dollar since the beginning of August.

Yen This Year

The yen appreciated 24 percent against the dollar this year, headed for its biggest annual gain since at least 1972, as more than $1 trillion of credit-market losses sparked a seizure in money markets and threw the world’s largest economy into a recession.

A stronger yen contributed to a 27 percent drop in Japan’s exports in November from a year earlier, a Japanese government report showed today. The decline was the biggest since comparable data became available in 1980.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said today the nation’s exports may decline further because of the yen’s strength this year and the global slowdown.

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s second-largest automaker, said it expects its first operating loss in 71 years because of plunging North American and European car sales and a surging yen.

BOJ Rate Cut

Japan’s central bank last week cut its benchmark rate to 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent, increased purchases of government debt and announced plans to buy commercial paper for the first time to counter the recession. Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa signaled the nation was ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange market for the first time in four years.

“ I am surprised the Japanese hasn’t intervened thus far,” said Dennis Gartman, economist and editor of the Gartman Letter in Suffolk, Virginia, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “Intervention to weaken your currency can be very effective. There’s a great probability that the yen versus the dollar will trade at 100 to 105 over the course of the next year.”

The dollar fell for the first time in three days against the euro before U.S. reports that economists expect will show the world’s largest economy is slipping further.

Consumer spending fell 0.7 percent in November and orders for durable goods declined, according to Bloomberg News surveys of economists. The Commerce Department will release both reports on Dec. 24.

Fed’s Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve lowered its target lending rate on Dec. 16 to a range of zero to 0.25 percent. The central bank reiterated plans to purchase agency debt and mortgage-backed securities and said it will study buying Treasuries.

“The bias is for the dollar to go lower,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “U.S. economic data are likely to confirm just how bad the outlook is.”

The dollar gained 4.5 percent against the euro this year, 34 percent versus the British pound and 28 percent against the Australian dollar as investors bought the greenback to flee riskier assets and repay dollar-denominated loans from lenders reining in credit.

The most volatile foreign-exchange markets since at least 1992 means currency traders will see the smallest pay cuts as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression wipes out bonuses on Wall Street.

While bonuses, which account for the bulk of annual pay for traders and investment bankers, will fall an average 45 percent this year, currency traders will see declines of about 15 percent from 2007, the least of any department, according to Options Group, a New York-based consulting firm.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net; Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at lmnyanda@bloomberg.net





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Oligarchs Seek $78 Billion as Credit Woes Help Putin

By Yuriy Humber and Torrey Clark

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Russian oligarchs are lining up for $78 billion of Kremlin loans to survive the credit squeeze, handing Prime Minister Vladimir Putin the opportunity to increase government control of the nation’s biggest companies.

Just 12 years after they gained ownership of the former Soviet Union’s industries by bailing out the government, the tables have been turned. More than 100 business leaders are vying for loans from Putin and the administration of President Dmitry Medvedev because Russian companies have about $110 billion of foreign obligations due next year, according to the central bank, double the total owed in Brazil, India and China.

Business leaders who tripled international debt in the past three years are putting up part of their stock as collateral for government support because they’ve been hobbled by tumbling commodity prices and the biggest drop in the ruble since Russia’s default in 1998. Putin already is aiding billionaires Roman Abramovich and Oleg Deripaska and considering requests from Dmitry Pumpyansky of pipemaker OAO TMK, OAO Severstal’s Alexei Mordashov and AFK Sistema’s Vladimir Yevtushenkov.

“Some of them will definitely lose their property, either to the state or to investors,” billionaire Alexander Lebedev, 49, said in a Dec. 8 interview, 11 days before Deutsche Bank AG demanded early repayment of a loan guaranteed by 3 percent of Moscow-based ZAO National Reserve Corp.’s 29 percent stake in OAO Aeroflot, the national airline. “They’ve been over- borrowing and sales of their companies have been falling.”

Loans-for-Shares

The oligarchs, Russian business leaders who used their political influence to help gain assets after the collapse of communism, essentially dictated the policies that allowed them to gain control of the nation’s biggest companies in the 1990s by providing financing to the government that was never repaid.

Anatoly Chubais, who oversaw the government’s sale of assets through the so-called loan-for-shares program, said in an interview in 2000 that the plan was necessary to create “big private capital” and help then-President Boris Yeltsin win reelection in 1996 to prevent a return to communism. Chubais, 53, is now chief executive officer of Moscow-based Russian Nanotechnology Corp.

Vnesheconombank, the Russian state lender known as VEB, is responsible for handling the bailouts. In return for one-year loans, VEB is requiring a representative at the company and the right to veto any debt or major asset sale, according to the bank’s Web site. Putin, 56, is head of its supervisory board. Borrowers offer shares, assets or export revenue as collateral.

Fewer Oligarchs

“It’s extremely unlikely they’ll all be able to repay in a year,” said Zina Psiola, a money manager at Clariden Leu AG in Zurich with $220 million in Russian equities. “Some oligarchs will no longer be oligarchs.”

At least 10 of the 25 wealthiest owners have faced margin calls from lenders since August as Russia’s worst financial crisis since 1998 wiped $230 billion from the value of their equity, according to data compiled by Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg.

Profits for four of Russia’s largest steel producers as well as Moscow-based TMK, the biggest maker of pipes for the oil and gas industry, will fall by about 50 percent to $10.5 billion next year as prices of the metal plunge, according to Clemens Grafe, an economist at UBS AG in London. That may leave the companies unable to pay for anything beyond their $10.3 billion of debt in 2009.

“If they have to pay this then they have no money for capital expenditure, no nothing,” Grafe said.

Shrinking Reserves

Prospects for refinancing debt are dwindling. Russia’s war with Georgia, a 75 percent drop in oil and the worsening credit crisis led investors to pull $211 billion from the country’s stocks, bonds and currency since August, according to BNP Paribas SA. The withdrawals weakened the ruble by 17 percent against the dollar, forcing the government to drain $163 billion, or 27 percent, from foreign-currency reserves. The ruble fell to the lowest level in almost three years against the dollar today.

Russian companies have about twice as much foreign debt due in 2009 than the $56 billion total owed by companies and the governments of China, India, and Brazil combined, according to data compiled by Commerzbank AG and RBC Capital Markets.

The leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan and three other former Soviet states agreed last week to form a $10 billion fund to help their economies weather financial turmoil, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s press service said on its Web site today, without providing more details.

State Control

Greater state involvement may reassure investors, said Jerome Booth, head of research at Ashmore Group Plc in London, which manages $32 billion of emerging-market assets including Russian corporate debt.

“There’s less chance of mass defaults in Russia than in Western Europe,” Booth said. “There’s a degree of state control in the economy already, so this will be more of the same.”

The prime minister, saying he has no intention of nationalizing the economy, pledged on Dec. 4 to offer loans and buy stakes in companies that solicit help, releasing collateral and selling back the holdings later.

Putin, who served eight years as president before becoming prime minister, provided $12 billion of loans since October to companies such as those backed by Abramovich, 42, and Deripaska, 40, and pledged $38 billion more. That covers only half the amount sought. Among the applicants is Pumpyansky, 44, of TMK, which owes $1.7 billion in 2009, more than forecast earnings. Yields on TMK’s dollar bonds due September 2009 topped 80 percent last month. TMK plans to delay some investments and is seeking to refinance with longer-term debt, according to an e- mailed statement.

Deripaska Selling

Deripaska is selling Moscow-based Soyuz Bank and may part with control of insurer OAO Ingosstrakh in Moscow, Vedomosti reported last week. Named Russia’s richest man by Forbes in April, Deripaska ceded stakes in auto-parts maker Magna International Inc. in Canada and German builder Hochtief AG to banks in October after the stocks lost more than half of their market value.

VEB’s $4.5 billion loan allowed Deripaska’s United Co. Rusal to keep a 25 percent stake in OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s biggest metals producer. A further $1.8 billion went to Evraz, the steelmaker part-owned by Abramovich.

Deripaska said he’s seeking to sell stakes in “practically all” his companies including Rusal, the world’s biggest maker of aluminum, to pay off loans, according to comments in the Wall Street Journal confirmed by spokesman Sergei Babichenko today. Deripaska said he hopes to have new investors in the companies by end of March.

Sistema, Evraz

Yevtushenkov’s Sistema in Moscow may seek as much as $2 billion from Moscow-based VEB to pay debts next year.

Moscow-based Evraz and Cherepovets-based Severstal didn’t respond to requests for comments.

“Not all of them are going to be helped out,” said Kieran Curtis, who helps manage $787 million in emerging market debt at Aviva Investors Ltd. in London. “I’m not convinced we know who is going to get state funds and that will be a major factor in terms of rollovers and redemptions.”

Vladimir Potanin, the biggest owner of OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel shares, may lose them to the government within a year, Vedomosti reported today, citing an unidentified Kremlin official. The shares are pledged against a $3 billion loan from state-controlled lender OAO VTB Group. Potanin has received margin calls on the debt after the stock lost value this year, the Moscow-based newspaper said.

Without a revival in commodity prices or state help, some Russian companies risk failing, according to Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s largest bond fund.

“It really depends on whether they can weather the storm with metals prices,” said Tim Haaf, Pimco emerging-market fund manager in Munich, who helps oversee $50 billion of emerging- market debt including Russian bonds. “We’re very conservative on Russia.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Yuriy Humber in Moscow at yhumber@bloomberg.net; Torrey Clark in Moscow at tclark8@bloomberg.net.





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