Daily Financial Market Outlook

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Lloyds TSB | Apr 27 10 04:07 GMT |

The euro remained under pressure yesterday, as concerns about the Greek economic situation intensified, particularly on conditions that may be attached to the IMF-EU bailout package. €/£ fell to a 3-month low of 0.8607, with sterling also shaking off last week's weak first estimate of Q1 GDP and ongoing concerns about a hung parliament. Ahead today, the key data releases are the UK CBI distributive trades, BBA loans and US Conf. Board consumer confidence surveys. We expect the CBI survey's reported sales balance to have fallen to 10 in March, but basically remaining in line with the long-term average. We should get a rise in BBA loans for house purchase. In the US, the Conf. Board consumer confidence index has underperformed the Univ. of Michigan sentiment survey recently and may rise to around 55. Chart: UK confidence among retailers has improved, according to both the CBI and our own in-house surveys Lloyds TSB Bank http://www.lloydstsbfinancialmarkets.com Disclaimer: Any documentation, reports, correspondence or other material or information in whatever form be it electronic, textual or otherwise is based on sources believed to be reliable, however neither the Bank nor its directors, officers or employees warrant accuracy, completeness or otherwise, or accept responsibility for any error, omission or other inaccuracy, or for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. The facts and data contained are not, and should under no circumstances be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product, nor are they intended to be a substitute for commercial judgement or professional or legal advice, and you should not act in reliance upon any of the facts and data contained, without first obtaining professional advice relevant to your circumstances. Expressions of opinion may be subject to change without notice. Although warrants and/or derivative instruments can be utilised for the management of investment risk, some of these products are unsuitable for many investors. The facts and data contained are therefore not intended for the use of private customers (as defined by the FSA Handbook) of Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a signatory to the Banking Codes, and represents only the Scottish Widows and Lloyds TSB Marketing Group for life assurance, pension and investment business.

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Germany Proving To Be The Last Hurdle In Greek Bailout Plans

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | Apr 27 10 06:11 GMT |

Market Brief EURJPY weakened 0.2% to 125.51 as the JPY rose against all of its major counterparts and Asian stocks declined as concern about Greece's bailout plan and the effect of tightening measures in China drove investors away from higher-yielding assets and after reports that BOJ may upgrade its 2011 CPI forecast on April 30. Investor sentiment turned bearish after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she won't release funds for Greece until the nation has a 'sustainable' plan to reduce its deficit. The USDJPY traded near its strongest level in almost three weeks to 93.81, the most since April 6 on speculation the Fed is moving closer to withdrawing stimulus as the US economic recovery gathers momentum. After the market closed, US Senate Republicans blocked Democrats from advancing their plan to overhaul Wall Street regulation, saying they want to force changes before beginning full debate. The NZDJPY fell to 67.53 after trading 68.31, the highest since Jan. 14 and AUDJPY fell to 86.76 after touching 87.77 yesterday, the strongest since Sept. 29, 2008 on concerns the EU aid package for Greece won't keep the deficit crisis from spreading, damping demand for higher-yielding currencies. The AUDJPY also retreated from an 18 month high as Asian stocks dropped. The NZDUSD dropped to 0.7201 after it reached 0.7256, the most since Jan. 20 while AUDUSD traded 0.9251 after German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday said she won't release Greek rescue funds until the country shows it's got a 'sustainable, credible' plan to cut its budget deficit. Australia's producer prices index gained 1% in Q1 (prev. -0.4%) as cost of petroleum refining advanced 8.1%, building construction prices gained 0.6% while utilities rose 3.3%. The EURUSD may weaken to less than 1.3000 this year should the Fed start raising interest rates before the ECB, according to market estimates. If the Fed does hike before the ECB, BOJ and BOE, the USD could become a growth currency again rather than a safe haven suggesting EURUSD and GBPUSD remain at risk in 2010 of falling well below estimated targets of 1.3000 and 1.4800. The FOMC will probably hold its target rate at a range of zero to 0.25% on April 28. USDKRW strengthened 0.5% to 1,103.80 to a 19-month high before a report forecast to show the nation's GDP expanded 7.5% in Q1 annualized, the most since Q4 2002. Yuan forwards climbed 0.1% to 6.6065, reflecting speculation that China's currency will strengthen 3.3% and it's expected that the government will allow it to gain this year with a 5% revaluation narrowing the US trade deficit with China by $61 billion. ACM FOREX Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

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Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com | Apr 27 10 06:31 GMT |

EURO The pair managed to breach resistance line for the descending channel that has currently turned into support at 1.3355. We expect some fluctuation to rid of the negative signs evident on momentum indicators, before resuming the expected bullish intraday direction that targets levels 1.3445 then 1.3495. It is vital that 1.3290 remain intact so these expectations may prevail. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3290 and the key resistance at 1.3495. The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.4410 remains intact with targets at 1.2450. Support: 1.3355, 1.3290, 1.3225, 1.3190, 1.3115 Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3445, 1.3495, 1.3570, 1.3635 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 1.3355 targeting 1.3445 and stop loss below 1.3290, might be appropriate. GBP Resistance level of 1.5475 is still a strong barrier in front of the pair's attempts to ascend. Through the image above, we find that the pair has stabilized above the breached pivotal resistance that has currently turned into support at 1.5410, supported by Stochastic which is approaching oversold areas; thus, encouraging us to expect more bullish intraday movement where its key targets start at 1.5555. This scenario requires 1.5325 to remain intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5325 and the key resistance at 1.5555. The short term trend is to the upside as far as 1.4850 remains intact with targets at 1.7000. Support: 1.5410, 1.5365, 1.5325, 1.5280, 1.5255 Resistance: 1.5475, 1.5500, 1.5555, 1.5605, 1.5665 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 1.5410 targeting 1.5555 and stop loss below 1.5325, might be appropriate. JPY The pair has been bearishly correcting since yesterday, while it approaches the retesting level from the previously breached neckline at 93.45. The stochastic is showing positive signs that support continuing the expected bullish direction over an intraday basis; requiring the retest level to maintain its stance to head towards 94.80 mainly. The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.20 and the key resistance at 94.80. The short term trend is to the downside as far as 101.65 remains intact with targets at 82.60. Support: 93.45, 92.70, 92.25, 91.60, 90.90 Resistance: 94.00, 94.80, 95.55, 96.00, 96.35 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 93.45 target 94.80 and stop loss below 92.70, might be appropriate. CHF The pair has returned to trade below the ascending channel's support level, while a sign of a bearish technical target is appearing where its neckline is at 1.0715. These signs point to a bearish intraday direction that will start with a clear breach of the neckline to pave the way towards 1.0605 then 1.0565. These expectations require the four-hour candlestick closing to remain below 1.0760 to prevail. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0605 and the key resistance at 1.0850. The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.1095 remains intact with targets at 0.9910. Support: 1.0705, 1.0670, 1.0605, 1.0565, 1.0505 Resistance: 1.0740, 1.0790, 1.0850, 1.0895, 1.0945 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 1.0715 targeting 1.0605 and stop loss above 1.0790, might be appropriate. CAD The pair continues its sideway trading, while it nears this range's resistance at 1.0045 and therefore meets with MA 100. We still see that chances of a bearish trend over an intraday basis remains intact and requires the breach of support between 0.9950 – 0.9930 to head towards 0.9805. It is vital that trading remain below 1.0120 to achieve these expectations. The trading range for today is among the key support at 0.9805 and the key resistance at 1.0120. The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0780 remains intact with targets at 0.9705. Support: 0.9950, 0.9930, 0.9865, 0.9805, 0.9750 Resistance: 1.0045, 1.0120, 1.0200, 1.0240, 1.0320 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 1.0045 targeting 0.9930 and stop loss above 1.0120, might be appropriate. Ecpulse disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk

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Asian Currencies Halt Gains Near 2008 Highs on Greece Concern

By Lilian Karunungan

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies halted gains near the highest levels in at least 19 months after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said a rescue package for Greece wasn’t guaranteed, reducing demand for emerging-market assets.

A technical gauge for the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index signaled the measure was poised to fall after rallying to a 20-month high yesterday. Regional stocks declined after Merkel said yesterday she won’t release funds for Greece without a “sustainable” plan to cut the shortfall. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped yesterday on concern about a proposed overhaul of the U.S. financial system.

“Currencies are in a consolidation phase as mostly these have factored in the Greece financial issue,” said Mirza Baig, a foreign-exchange analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in Singapore. “The overnight weakness in equities, including the U.S. markets,” affected Asian currencies, he said.

The won weakened 0.6 percent to 1,110.90 per dollar as of 2:12 p.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency yesterday touched 1,102.85, its strongest level since Sept. 12, 2008. The Philippine peso dropped 0.2 percent to 44.275 and the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.1 percent to 3.1835.

The Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most- traded currencies excluding the yen, was little changed after yesterday reaching 113.29, the highest level since August 2008. Its 14-day relative-strength index touched 69 yesterday, just shy of the 70 level that signals the gauge may reverse direction. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index of regional shares dropped 0.3 percent today.

Korea’s currency extended losses after the government said recent gains in the currency were “excessive.” We will take measures to counter herd behavior in the foreign-exchange market, Kim Ik Joo, director-general at the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, said by phone today.

Korea GDP

Asian currencies have rallied this year, led by Malaysia’s ringgit and the won, as the region’s economic recovery attracts global investors to local assets. Prospects China will revalue the yuan are also bolstering demand.

The ringgit reached 3.1710 per dollar yesterday, the highest level since May 2008, and the peso touched 44.158, the strongest since August of that year.

South Korea’s gross domestic product growth exceeded analysts’ estimates in the first quarter. GDP increased 1.8 percent from the final three months of last year, when it rose 0.2 percent, and beating the median forecast for a 1.5 percent rise in a Bloomberg News survey.

“Strong gross domestic product data was good but the market will be dominated by sentiment factors,” said Thomas Harr, senior currency-strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore.

Europe Woes

Germany’s reluctance to guarantee aid for Greece has led to concern a rescue package headed by the International Monetary Fund may stall. Yields on Greece and Portugal’s bonds have surged on concern the country’s credit woes will spread to other nations in the European Union.

“Investors are nervous about the contagion risk from the Greek situation, whether the other euro countries like Portugal will also be similarly affected,” said Penn Nee Chow, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “They are just waiting to see how things will play out. Asian currencies are still looking strong because of the very positive economic indicators in Asia.”

Taiwan’s dollar rose to a 20-month high as overseas investors increased holdings of the island’s stocks to take advantage of a planned trade accord with China.

Funds based abroad bought NT$26.8 billion ($857 million) more local shares than they sold yesterday, the biggest net purchases since Sept. 10. Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou said April 25 that the next round of talks with China will likely be held before the end of the month or early in May.

China-Taiwan

A trade agreement with China “will help Taiwan’s exports and the economy,” said Tarsicio Tong, a foreign-exchange trader at Union Bank of Taiwan in Taipei. Capital inflows “will test the defenses of the central bank” to prevent the currency from rising beyond NT$31, he said.

The currency strengthened 0.2 percent to NT$31.290 against its U.S. counterpart, according to Taipei Forex Inc. It reached NT$31.269, the highest level since August 2008, the same month the island’s dollar last broke NT$31.

The Philippine peso declined on concern investors will trim holdings of the nation’s assets in the run-up to next month’s general election.

Presidential frontrunner Benigno Aquino yesterday said only fraud can stop him winning at the polls and such an event would trigger unrest comparable with the protests that swept his mother to power 24 years ago.

Philippine Election

Benigno Aquino, the 50-year-old son of former president Corazon Aquino, has led opinion surveys since entering the race last year and criticized how a switch to electronic voting machines is being implemented.

“Everyone is staying liquid as the election nears,” said Yvette Marquez, who helps manage 470 billion pesos ($10.6 billion) at BPI Asset Management in Manila. “It’s always better to be safe and hold off from investing until people are convinced elections are credible.”

Elsewhere in the region, the Singapore dollar and Indonesian rupiah were little changed versus the U.S. currency at S$1.3680 and 9,006, respectively. The Thai baht was unchanged at 32.24 and China’s yuan traded at 6.8266.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net.

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Euro Near 3-Month Low Versus Pound on Greece Aid Plan Concern

By Yasuhiko Seki and Ron Harui

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded near a three-month low against the pound on concern a European Union-led 45 billion euro ($60.2 billion) aid package for Greece won’t stop the deficit crisis from spreading.

Demand for Europe’s currency weakened before Greek transport workers go on strike today and after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she won’t release funds for Greece until the nation has a “sustainable” plan to reduce its shortfall. Australia’s dollar fell from a 19-month high against the yen as Asian equities declined, damping the appetite for riskier assets.

“There is concern that the German government may delay the extension of financial aid for Greece,” said Akane Vallery Uchida, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo. “This led to resumed selling of the euro.”

The euro traded at 86.59 pence as of 6:58 a.m. in London from 86.58 pence yesterday in New York, when it declined to 86.04 pence, the lowest since Jan. 28. The 16-nation currency was at 125.60 yen from 125.73, and traded at $1.3373 from $1.3383. The dollar was at 93.95 yen from 93.96 yen.

Australia’s dollar fell 0.2 percent to 86.90 yen and slipped 0.2 percent to 92.51 U.S. cents.

“I’ve said for weeks that Greece must do its homework first,” Merkel said yesterday, drawing applause from an audience in Soest in North Rhine-Westphalia, where state elections are due on May 9.

No Decision

There will be no decision on aid for Greece until the International Monetary Fund works out a plan of cuts with the government in Athens, Merkel told reporters earlier yesterday in Berlin. Germany will assist Greece only after it agrees to take “tough” measures, she said.

Greece has 8.5 billion euros of bonds maturing 10 days after the regional election and the extra yield investors demand to hold its 10-year bonds over German bunds jumped 93 basis points yesterday to 652 basis points.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will today brief lawmakers on the nation’s economic outlook. Transport workers are expected to hold a strike and a civil service union plans to stage a rally.

The yen and dollar strengthened against higher-yielding currencies as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent.

“Lingering woes over Greece’s debt crisis seem to be dragging down Asian equities,” said Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. “This is causing safe- haven buying of the yen and the dollar.”

The yen typically strengthens in times of financial turmoil as Japan’s trade surplus frees the nation from dependence on overseas capital. The dollar benefits as the world’s main reserve currency.

Japan’s Economy

Japan’s currency also gained after the Nikkei English News reported, without saying how it obtained the information, that the central bank may upgrade its fiscal 2011 consumer price index forecast. BOJ policy makers will release their semiannual economic forecasts after their April 30 meeting in Tokyo.

“The Nikkei report on a possible upgrade in the BOJ’s forecasts suggests an improvement in fundamentals,” said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager of foreign exchange at Nomura Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. “This is a yen-buying factor.”

‘Impetus’ for Dollar

The dollar advanced on speculation U.S. reports this week will show the nation’s economic recovery is gathering momentum, backing the case for the Federal Reserve to move closer to withdrawing stimulus.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index in the U.S. climbed 1.3 percent in February, the first increase since December 2006, according to a Bloomberg survey before today’s report. Consumer spending increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate last quarter, more than double the 1.6 percent pace the previous three months, according to a separate survey before the April 30 report.

“The recent set of good U.S. data will fuel speculation about rises in interest rates there, providing some impetus to the dollar,” said Shuzo Kakuta, a senior foreign-exchange adviser at Tokyo Tomin Bank Ltd.

Futures on the CME Group Inc. exchange show a 72 percent chance the Fed will raise its benchmark rate by at least a quarter-percentage point by its December meeting, compared with 60 percent odds a week ago.

To contact the reporter on this story: Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at yseki5@bloomberg.net; Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net.

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Gold Approaches One-Week High as Greece Woes Spur Haven Demand

By Kim Kyoungwha

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold advanced to near the highest level in more than a week on speculation Greece’s budget woes will prompt investors to seek a refuge in safer assets.

Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $1,155.75 an ounce at 8:23 a.m. in Singapore, after climbing to $1,160.10 yesterday, the highest price since April 16. Bullion in euro and Swiss francs rose to records yesterday on concern that a European Union-led 45 billion euro ($60 billion) aid package for Greece won’t prevent the deficit crisis from spreading.

“The price of gold has edged to just under $1,160 an ounce against the backdrop of Greece’s uncertain financial situation,” Eugen Weinberg, senior analyst with Commerzbank AG, wrote in a report. “Gold is thus showing its attraction as a safe haven once again.”

Greece needs to repay 8.5 billion euros of bonds on May 19. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Greece and the rest of the euro region that a bailout of the debt-stricken nation isn’t a done deal.

The Dollar Index also advanced, ending a two-day decline, Asian stocks were little changed after jumping the most since March 17 yesterday on optimism about a firmer economic recovery.

Silver increased 0.1 percent to $18.315 an ounce, and platinum added 0.4 percent to $1,751.75 an ounce, approaching a 20-month high of $1,754.85 touched on April 22. Palladium gained 0.6 percent at $568.50 an ounce, nearing the 25-month high of $572 also reached on April 22.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at Kkim19@bloomberg.net

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Asian Stocks Decline on China Real-Estate Concern; CSL Slumps

By Jonathan Burgos

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks declined, dragging the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lower for the third time in four days, as concern deepened that China’s steps to cool its property market will curb growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. sank 2 percent in Shanghai on concern lending will slow. PetroChina Co., China’s largest oil producer, lost 1.9 percent on lower oil prices. CSL Ltd., the world’s No. 2 maker of treatments made from blood, slipped 3.7 percent in Sydney after Credit Suisse Group AG downgraded the stock. Elpida Memory Inc. dropped 2.2 percent in Tokyo as memory-chip prices declined.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent to 126.97 as of 2:44 p.m. in Tokyo, with two stocks falling for each one that rose. The gauge has climbed 11 percent from its low this year on Feb. 8 as better-than-estimated economic and earnings reports offset concerns Greece will default on its debt. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday a Greek bailout isn’t a done deal.

“Concerns about potential delays in financial aid for Greece as well as further monetary tightening in China continue to dampen investor sentiment,’ said Michiya Tomita, a Hong Kong- based fund manager for Mitsubishi UFJ Management Co., which holds $65 billion in assets. “Valuations are still expensive. We need to see more earnings improvement.”

China’s Shanghai Composite Index slumped 2.7 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 0.3 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.3 percent, led by Fanuc Ltd., which climbed 9.9 percent after reporting earnings.

U.S. Earnings

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed today. The index fell 0.4 percent yesterday in New York as concern that proposed legislation will hurt banks overshadowed improving earnings at Caterpillar Inc. and Whirlpool Corp. After markets closed, U.S. Senate Republicans blocked Democrats from advancing their plan to overhaul Wall Street regulation.

Industrial & Commercial Bank lost 2 percent to 4.44 yuan. China Vanke Co., the country’s largest listed property developer, lost 1.2 percent to 7.71 yuan in the southern city of Shenzhen after reporting a decline in first-quarter sales.

In Hong Kong, China Resources Land Ltd., a state-controlled developer, slid 1.9 percent to HK$14.18. Hang Lung Properties Ltd., a Hong Kong developer which generated 40 percent of its fiscal 2009 revenue in China, sank 2.5 percent to HK$29.25.

Capital Requirements

“The market is worried China is over-tightening,” said Grace Tam, Hong Kong-based vice president of investment services at JPMorgan Asset Management Ltd., which manages about $102 billion in Asia-Pacific assets. “The concern is that this could result in a worse-than-expected impact on China’s growth.”

China may use capital requirements for developers as a policy tool to cool the property market, Ba Shusong, deputy director general of the State Council’s Development Research Center, told Shanghai Securities News in an interview.

The Shanghai Composite Index has slumped 11 percent in 2010 as the government unwinds monetary stimulus and steps up measures to prevent a housing bubble inflated by record lending last year.

Oil producers fell after crude prices in New York lost 0.7 percent to $83.64 in after-hours trading, extending yesterday’s 1.1 percent drop. PetroChina lost 1.9 percent to 11.97 yuan in Shanghai, while Inpex Corp., Japan’s largest oil explorer, sank 1.4 percent to 689,000 yen.

Higher Valuations

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.6 percent yesterday, its biggest gain since March 17, as speculation mounted earnings will benefit from the global economic recovery. Stocks in the index trade at 16.1 times estimated earnings, compared with 15.2 times for the S&P 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Government data last week showed sales of new homes in the U.S. soared 27 percent in March, climbing the most in 47 years. Service industries in the U.S. expanded last month at the fastest pace since May 2006, indicating the U.S. recovery is spreading beyond manufacturing and starting to create jobs, data from the Institute for Supply Management on April 5 showed.

A pledge by European governments to put together a loan package for Greece has also boosted share prices. Germany is prepared to release funds to Greece, but “first I want to see the program,” the country’s Chancellor Merkel said late yesterday.

Elpida, Japan’s biggest maker of computer memory, lost 1.9 percent to 2,031 yen, while Hynix Semiconductor Inc. slumped 3.3 percent to 27,550 won in Seoul. The spot price for the benchmark dynamic random access memory chip sank 0.7 percent yesterday to the lowest level since March 22, according to Dramexchange Technology Inc.

Lower Chip Prices

Phison Electronics Corp., a maker of computer data storage devices, slumped 6.9 percent in Taipei. Chairman Pua Khien-Seng said NAND flash chip prices may decline this quarter, the Commercial Times reported. The company’s spokesman Yu Zhi-Chyang didn’t answer calls at his office.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., China’s buggest chipmaker, dropped 2.2 percent to 90 Hong Kong cents. The company reported a net loss in 2009 as sales dropped 21 percent.

CSL fell 3.4 percent to A$32.78 after Credit Suisse cut the stock to “neutral” from “outperform,” citing the impact from U.S. health-care reforms. CSL tumbled 7.3 percent on April 23 when it last traded, after larger rival Baxter International Inc. cut its 2010 earnings forecast.

Among stocks that gained, IHI Corp., Japan’s second-largest maker of heavy machinery, climbed 9.9 percent to 189 yen in Tokyo. The company said in a preliminary earnings statement its full-year net income was 17 billion yen ($180 million), compared with its forecast of 7 billion yen.

To contact the reporter for this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at jburgos4@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Stocks Set to Fall on Deepening Unemployment: Chart of Day

By Hideki Sagiike and Masaki Kondo

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is poised to fall as chronic unemployment rises to a record among jobless Americans, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. the brokerage unit of Japan’s biggest bank by market value.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the S&P 500 and ratio of Americans jobless for more than 27 weeks relative to the total number of unemployed. The equities gauge has jumped 80 percent from a more than 12-year low on March 9, 2009, even as long-term joblessness surged to 44.1 percent in March, almost double the level a year earlier and highest since records began in 1948. The lower panel tracks overall unemployment, which has declined 0.4 percentage point since reaching a 26-year peak in October.

“The government’s stimulus measures have driven up stock prices” and helped disguise the unemployment problem, said Seiki Orimi, a senior investment strategist at Tokyo-based Mitsubishi UFJ. “Stocks will fall, at some point. For now, people in the market are tricking themselves” into believing in a U.S. jobs recovery.

Consumer spending accounted for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy in the fourth quarter, when gross domestic product expanded at a 5.6 percent annual rate, the fastest pace in more than six years. Output in the three months to March probably expanded 3 percent, based on the median forecast of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 may fall as much as 5 percent in an “overdue” decline, according to a technical analysis this month by Thomas Schroeder, managing director at Chart Partners Group Ltd.

Jobless Benefits

The U.S. posted a budget deficit for a record 18th straight month in March, reflecting gains in government spending to boost the economy. President Barack Obama signed a bill on April 15 extending jobless benefits for hundreds of thousands of Americans to June 2, and urged Congress to pass another measure offering them for the rest of the year.

“Historically, people unemployed for more than six months experience a significant deterioration of vocational skills and face severe difficulties in finding their next job,” Richard Koo, chief economist at Tokyo-based Nomura Research Institute Ltd., wrote in a report on April 20.

(To save a copy of the chart, click here.)

To contact the reporter for this story: Hideki Sagiike in Tokyo at hsagiike@bloomberg.net; Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net

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Asian Stocks Fall the Most in Two Months on Goldman Sachs Probe

By Kana Nishizawa and Shani Raja

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, dragging the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down by the most in two months, on concern a U.S. suit against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. signals increasing regulatory scrutiny on financial companies.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s largest bank by market value, fell 3.5 percent in Tokyo after U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown called yesterday for the Financial Services Authority to start an inquiry into Goldman Sachs. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, declined 1.5 percent in Sydney on lower commodity prices. Canon Inc., the world’s No. 1 camera maker, sank 2.3 percent after the yen strengthened against the dollar.

“The Goldman news, in isolation, undermines credibility in the financial system,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage about $1.1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “It also creates uncertainty as to whether this is a one-off action, or the first of many that results in greater scrutiny regarding the integrity of U.S. financial institutions.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped 1.8 percent to 126.01 as of 10:42 a.m. in Tokyo, with 15 stocks declining for each one that advanced. The measure dropped the most since Feb. 19. The gauge posted its third straight weekly advance last week as better-than-estimated economic and U.S. earnings reports fueled confidence in the global economic recovery.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 1.8 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 1.5 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index slumped 2.4 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1.7 percent after the government stepped up measures to curb gains in real-estate prices. China Vanke Co., the nation’s biggest publicly traded developer, tumbled 3.7 percent in Shenzhen.

Banks, Mining Companies

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.4 percent. The gauge slumped 1.6 percent on April 16 after the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Goldman Sachs for misstating and omitting facts about collateralized debt obligations. Germany’s financial regulator has asked the SEC for details on the suit.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index tumbled 39 percent from Sept. 15, 2008 to March 9, 2009 as the credit crisis caused the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and dragged the global economy into its worst slowdown since World War II. The MSCI gauge has since surged 78 percent.

HSBC Holdings Plc, which made 20 percent of its 2009 revenue in North America, fell 2.1 percent to HK$82.75 in Hong Kong. Mitsubishi UFJ dropped 3.5 percent to 496 yen in Tokyo. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Japan’s second-biggest bank by market value, sank 4.6 percent to 3,140 yen. In Sydney, Westpac Banking Corp. fell 1.8 percent to A$27.67.

Oil, Metals

Banks and material companies posted the biggest declines among the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 10 industry groups. Companies in the gauge trade at an average 16 times estimated earnings, compared with 15.2 times for the S&P 500.

BHP Billiton retreated 1.5 percent to A$42.90. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s biggest gold producer, slid 1.3 percent to A$34.16. Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-biggest oil and gas producer, declined 1.2 percent to A$46.14. In Wellington, New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd. fell 1.9 percent to NZ$1.53.

Gold futures for June delivery fell 2 percent in New York on April 16, the most since February, as the SEC’s lawsuit against Goldman Sachs, one of Wall Street’s biggest traders and brokers of raw materials, spurred investors to seek a haven in the dollar and eroded the metal’s appeal as an alternative asset.

Crude oil futures slumped 2.7 percent in New York on April 16, while the London Metals Index, a measure of six metals including copper and zinc, declined 2.1 percent.

Risk Aversion

“The Goldman shock is discouraging investors from taking on risk in stocks, currencies and commodities,” said Tomochika Kitaoka, a senior strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo.

Japanese exporters declined as the yen strengthened to as much as 91.82 to the dollar after trading at 92.74 at the close of the Tokyo stock market on April 16. A stronger yen reduces companies’ revenue from overseas sales when converted into the local currency.

Canon slid 2.3 percent to 4,250 yen. Panasonic Corp., the world’s biggest maker of plasma televisions, retreated 1.7 percent to 1,368 yen. Mazda Motor Corp., Japan’s second-largest car exporter, fell 1.5 percent to 255 yen.

China’s property-related equities fell after the nation said banks should stop loans for third-home purchases in cities with excessive property price gains and suspend lending to buyers who cannot provide tax returns or proof of social security contributions in that city, the State Council said.

China Developers

China Vanke tumbled 3.7 percent to 8.71 yuan in Shenzhen. Poly Real Estate Group Co. sank 4.2 percent to 17.87 yuan in Shanghai. In Hong Kong, China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., controlled by the country’s construction ministry, slumped 4.1 percent to HK$14.86. Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., the biggest real-estate company in the southern Chinese city, slumped 6.5 percent to HK$11.16.

Airline stocks slumped after a volcanic eruption in Iceland prompted airlines to cancel flights. Airlines worldwide are losing at least $200 million a day in revenue as an ash cloud over Europe grounded planes, the International Air Transport Association said on April 16.

All Nippon Airways Co., Asia’s No. 2 carrier, declined 3.1 percent to 281 yen. Australia’s Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd. tumbled 6.1 percent to 61.5 cents in Sydney. Singapore Airlines Ltd., the world’s second-largest carrier by market value, lost 2.7 percent to S$15.10.

Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. lost 2.4 percent to HK$15.48. Separately, the company said its Deputy Chairman Philip Chen resigned to pursue personal interests.

To contact the reporters for this story: Kana Nishizawa in Tokyo at knishizawa5@bloomberg.net; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.

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U.S. Stock Futures Fall as Goldman Sachs Faces Probes in Europe

By Lynn Thomasson and Chris Nagi

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures fell, extending the biggest one-day decline in more than two months, after the U.K. and Germany signaled inquiries into Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in June slipped 0.3 percent to 1,186.9 as of 10:27 a.m. in Tokyo. The benchmark index for American equities retreated 0.2 percent last week, halting the longest streak of gains in a year. Nasdaq 100 Index futures dropped 0.2 percent to 2,005 today.

Goldman Sachs faces a regulatory probe in Britain and scrutiny from the German government after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued the firm for fraud tied to collateralized debt obligations. U.S. equities decreased the most since February after the suit spurred concern fallout from the financial crisis isn’t over.

“You get a punch in the gut with these Goldman Sachs issues,” said Don Wordell, who oversees the RidgeWorth Mid-Cap Value Equity Fund, which has beaten 97 percent of its peers during the past five years. “It brings investors back to reality. There’s a tremendous amount of skepticism.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.6 percent to 10,924.78 in Tokyo. The broader Topix index dropped 1.6 percent to 972.7, with more than 10 times as many stocks declining as advancing.

Weekly Decline

Goldman Sachs sank 10 percent last week, the most since March 2009, after the SEC sued the bank and one of its vice presidents. The 1.6 percent retreat in the S&P 500 on April 16 erased gains earlier in the week spurred by better-than- estimated earnings results from S&P 500 companies.

The most profitable firm in Wall Street history wiped out its 2010 advance and ended the week at $160.70, the lowest price since March 3. The SEC said the bank created and sold CDOs tied to subprime mortgages in early 2007, as the U.S. housing market faltered, without disclosing that hedge fund Paulson & Co. helped pick the underlying securities and bet against them. Goldman Sachs said the claims are “completely unfounded.” Paulson wasn’t accused of wrongdoing.

Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. lost more than 4.7 percent on April 16. The lawsuit comes as President Barack Obama is trying to pass the most sweeping overhaul of financial regulations since the 1930s. The proposal would mean more oversight of derivatives trading and hedge funds, a consumer financial-protection authority and a system for unwinding large systemically important firms when they fail.

European Losses

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest lender, fell 7.3 percent to 55.99 euros on the day of the suit for the biggest retreat in more than eight months. UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank by assets, slipped 2.8 percent to 17.93 Swiss francs. BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank, slumped 3.8 percent to 55.35 euros.

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown yesterday called for the Financial Services Authority to start an investigation, saying he was “shocked” at the “moral bankruptcy” indicated in the suit. Germany’s financial regulator, Bafin, asked the SEC for details on the suit, a spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.

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Gold May Weaken as Goldman Fraud Case Spurs Demand for Dollar

By Kim Kyoungwha

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may weaken, after slumping Friday by the most since Feb. 4, on speculation that a fraud suit by U.S. regulators against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will increase demand for the dollar as a safe investment.

Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.3 percent to $1,134 an ounce before trading little changed at $1,137.10 at 8:55 a.m. in Singapore. The metal tumbled 1.9 percent on April 16. The dollar strengthened 0.2 percent against a basket of six currencies as Goldman faces a probe in Britain and scrutiny from Germany after being sued for fraud.

Investors “saw Goldman’s case as a sell signal and we did see the U.S. dollar firmer,” said Toby Hassall, a commodity analyst with CWA Global Markets Pty Ltd. in Sydney. “It seems to have shaken confidence. If we see flight-to-safety buying of the dollar, that might put gold prices on the defensive.”

The Securities and Exchange Commission alleged that Goldman created and sold securities linked to subprime mortgage-backed securities. The firm failed to disclose to investors that hedge fund Paulson & Co. was betting against the instruments and influenced the selections in the portfolio, the SEC said. Paulson wasn’t accused of wrongdoing.

As of Dec. 31, Paulson was the largest holder of the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund back by the metal, and Goldman was the 11th biggest. Paulson is also the top investor in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Africa’s largest producer.

Silver was little changed at $17.72 an ounce, platinum fell 0.3 percent to $1,687.50 an ounce and palladium lost 0.5 percent at $527.25 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at Kkim19@bloomberg.net

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Oil Falls a Third Day on Speculation Gains Have Outpaced Demand

By Gavin Evans and Yee Kai Pin

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a third day on speculation the commodity’s climb to an 18-month high has outpaced a recovery in global demand.

Oil extended losses after tumbling 2.7 percent on April 16, the most in 10 weeks. Prices are being driven by speculation and currency movements and there’s no need for OPEC to review output before its October meeting, Qatar’s oil minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said yesterday. The dollar strengthened against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities.

“We’ve still got higher-than-average stockpiles in various markets, including the U.S.,” said Toby Hassall, a commodity analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. OPEC “will want to see those stockpiles drawn down further before they consider increasing supply.”

Crude oil for May delivery fell as much as $1.58, or 1.9 percent, to $81.66 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $81.94 at 12:09 p.m. Singapore time. Prices have declined in eight of the nine trading days after touching $87.09 on April 6, the highest since October 2008.

The May contract, which expires tomorrow, lost $2.27 on April 16 to $83.24 a barrel, the biggest drop since Feb. 5. Prices slumped after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission accused Goldman Sachs Group Inc. of fraud, triggering a selloff in commodity and equity markets. The more-widely held June future was down $1.10, or 1.3 percent, at $83.57 today.

Greece Bailout

The euro fell to a one-week low against the dollar after European Union finance ministers told Greece to brace itself for the International Monetary Fund’s conditions on a bailout package. The U.S. currency was at $1.3462 per euro at 12 p.m. in Singapore from $1.3503 in New York.

“There will be fits and starts to do with the recovery story and I think this Goldman news is another event that seems to have exposed the fragility of market confidence,” said CWA’s Hassall. “Longer term, the global recovery story is going to continue to drive the oil market.”

Oil at $90 a barrel would be harmful and may “jeopardize the market,” according to Angola’s oil minister, Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos. A “good level” is between $70 and $80, he said yesterday at a gas conference in Oran, Algeria.

Angola and Qatar are members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps 40 percent of the world’s oil. The group slashed output by a record 4.2 million barrels a day beginning January 2009 to prevent a supply glut as the global economy sank into recession. Ministers voted to maintain official output targets at a March 17 meeting in Vienna.

Speculators

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators trimmed bets on rising oil prices for the first time in three weeks, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed.

Speculative net-long positions, or the difference between orders to buy and sell the commodity on the New York Mercantile Exchange, decreased 12 percent to 113,364 contracts on April 13, the commission said last week.

Brent crude oil for June settlement fell as much as $1.36, or 1.6 percent, to $84.63 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract was at $84.97 at 12:09 p.m. Singapore time.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net; Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net.

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Forex Exchange Morning Report

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Westpac Institutional Bank | Apr 14 10 01:51 GMT |

US equities opened lower, digesting yesterday's after-hours Alcoa earnings report for Q1, the fi rst of the reporting season, but have recovered to be up 0.2% at present. Alcoa shares fell 3.4% on weaker sales revenue. A closely watched Greek tbill auction was successful. Greece sold €780m 6mth tbills at a yield of 4.55% with bids for 7.7 times that amount, and €780m 12mth tbills at 4.85% with bid coverage 6.5 times (vs 3.1 times at January's auction). The total amount of €1.6bn exceeded the €1.2bn originally earmarked. The CRB commodities index co-moved with US equities, and is currently up 0.4%, oil (-0.3%) hurt by supply concerns, gold down 0.3% on reduced safe-haven appeal, but copper up 0.8% with equities. US treasuries are 3bp lower in yield, fl attening the curve similarly. The US dollar is little changed, although it did slip with the lower US trade balance release, and then bounced on a rumour of a think-tank report of Fed language changes (which the think tank reportedly denied writing). EUR roughly fl at-lined along 1.3590 +/-40 pips. USD/JPY's gyrations between 92.60 and 93.40 refl ected the dollar's reactions to the news above. AUD ranged +/-30pips around the Sydney closing level of 0.9260, and is currently a tad higher at 0.9275. NZD dipped to just below 0.7100. AUD/NZD fi rmed in a straight line to 1.3060. US small business confi dence falls further in March. The NFIB index fell from 88.0 to 86.8 in March, its lowest since July last year. This survey is a timely reminder that all is not well in the US economy. The lower reading was driven by a lower intention to hire, lower sales expectations, tighter credit and a further fall in businesses saying now is a good time to expand. Note that we have found that the intention to hire/fi re number is a good guide to the tone of the subsequent monthly payrolls so ex Census workers, we are inclined to forecast something like 0k private payrolls growth in April down from 123k in March. US trade defi cit widens from $37.0bn to -$39.7bn in Feb. This refl ected about fl at exports for the second month running, but a 1.7% rebound in imports which had fallen a similar amount in Jan. Exports were constrained by a further decline in civilian aircraft deliveries to foreign customers, while imports showed broad-based gains outside of apparel, autos and food. In other news, import prices rose 0.7% but fell excluding oil, a sign recent dollar gains against some currencies might be impacting on the trade story. US IBD/TIPP economic optimism rose from 45.4 to 48.4 in April. General economic confi dence was the highest since last September, but personal fi nances did nothing more than reverse the steep drop in March. UK trade balance defi cit narrows from £8.1bn to £6.2bn in Feb, its lowest since June 2006, thanks to a sharp jump in exports, especially of chemicals. This follows January's export slump which pushed the defi cit out to its widest since late 2008, and mirrors the recent fall/rebound in manufacturing output in the fi rst two months of 2010. Other UK data mixed. The BRC reported stronger retail sales in March, but the RICS reported fewer surveyors assessing house prices as rising in March. But back in Feb, the government reported house price gains accelerating from 6.2% yr to 7.4% yr. Canadian trade surplus widens from C$0.8bn to C$1.4bn in Feb. Exports rose 2.8% lifted by the industrial and auto sectors, while imports were constrained to a 0.9% rise by a sharp fall in the energy component. Meanwhile, new house prices rose 0.1% in Feb. Outlook AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: AUD looks rangebound today between 0.9220 and 0.9300. NZD is in a range of 0.7100 and 0.7150, but the lower bound is more likely to be tested today, particularly if our economist's -0.3% (mom) forecast for Feb retail sales proves correct this morning. Events Today Date Country Release Last Forecast 14-Apr NZ Feb Retail Sales 0.80% –0.3% Aus Apr Westpac-MI Cons Sentiment 117.3 – US Mar Consumer Price Index 0.00% 0.10% Mar CPI Core 0.10% 0.00% Mar Retail Sales 0.30% 1.20% Mar Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.80% 0.70% Feb Business Inventories 0.00% 0.40% Fed Beige Book Fedspeak Eur Feb Industrial Production 1.60% 0.00% 15-Apr Aus Apr WBC-MI Unemploy Expect’s –0.2% – Apr MI Inflation Expectations 3.20% – Q1 NAB Business Survey US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 10/4 460k 440k Apr NY Fed Empire State Index 22.9 25 Feb Net Long Term TIC Flows $bn 19.1 48 Mar Industrial Production 0.10% 0.80% Apr Philadelphia Fed Index 18.9 22 Westpac Institutional Bank http://www.wib.westpac.co.nz/ Disclaimer All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

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USDCAD: Stalled And Directionless Ahead Of The 1.0000 Level

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Apr 13 10 14:50 GMT |

USDCAD- The pair continues to hesitate above its parity level. As highlighted in our past analysis, while USDCAD continues to trade above the mentioned level risk of a base forming price activities exist for an eventual corrective recovery with the 1.0219 level, its Jan 14’10 low and the 1.0301 level, its Mar 26’10 high coming in as upside targets. Beyond there will open the door for more strength towards the 1.0320 level, its Mar 11’10 high and next its Feb 22’10 low at 1.0368. That level should cap recovery if tested and turn the pair back down in line with its broader medium term weakness. Alternatively, a break and hold below the 1.0000 level, its psycho/parity level will set the stage for a decline towards its 2010 low at 0.9975 with a cut through there putting further downside pressure on the 0.9818 level, its July’08 low and then the 0.9707 level, its Feb’08 low or even lower. Mohammed Isah Market Analyst www.fxtechstrategy.com This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report

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