Economic Calendar

Thursday, September 25, 2008

FX Technical Commentary

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Easy Forex | Sep 25 08 01:47 GMT |

Euro 1.4645

Initial support at 1.4623 (Sept 23 low) followed by 1.4437 (Sept 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4867 (Sept 23 high) at followed by 1.4908 (Aug 22 high).

Yen 106.05

Initial support is located at 105.15 (Sept 22 low) followed by 103.54 (Sept 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 106.35 (Sep 24 high) followed by 107.47 (Sept 22 high).

Pound 1.8510

Initial support at 1.8472 (Sept 23 low) followed by 1.8265 (Sept 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.8642 (Sep 22 high) followed by 1.8795 (Aug 21 High).

Australian Dollar 0.8345

Initial support at 0.8279 (Sept 23 low) followed by the 0.8011 (Sep 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8519 (Sept 22 high) followed by 0.8534 (Sept 2 high).

Gold 884

Initial support at 862.8 (Sept 22 low) followed by 825.12 (Sept 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 909.8 (Sep 23 high) followed by 919 (Sept 18 high).

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.4437 1.4623 1.4645 1.4867 1.4908
USD/JPY 103.54 105.15 106.05 106.35 107.47
GBP/USD 1.8265 1.8472 1.8510 1.8642 1.8795
AUD/USD 0.8011 0.8279 0.8345 0.8519 0.8534
XAU/USD 825.12 862.80 884.00 909.80 919.00

Easy Forex
http://www.easy-forex.com

Easy-Forex makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Therefore you should consider whether these products are appropriate in view of your objectives, financial situation and needs as well as considering the risks associated in dealing with those products


Read more...

Japan's August Merchandise Trade Balance: Summary (Table)

By Minh Bui

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of Japan's merchandise trade balance from the Ministry of Finance in Tokyo.


===============================================================================
Aug. July June May April March Feb.
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
===============================================================================
-----------------Not Seasonally Adjusted Yen Level-----------------
Balance -324.0 85.5 121.9 357.8 475.2 1,109.0 963.3
3-mo. avg -38.9 188.4 318.3 647.3 849.2 660.8 580.2
Exports 7,055.9 7,628.7 7,153.7 6,809.0 6,891.4 7,682.5 6,975.4
Imports 7,379.9 7,543.2 7,031.9 6,451.2 6,416.2 6,573.6 6,012.0
--------------------Year-on-Year Percent Change--------------------
Balance n/a -87.5% -90.2% -9.5% -47.4% -30.8% 0.2%
Exports 0.3% 8.0% -1.8% 3.7% 3.9% 2.3% 8.7%
Imports 17.3% 18.2% 16.4% 4.5% 12.0% 11.2% 10.2%
---------------------Three-Month Percent Change--------------------
Balance -106.0% -77.8% -51.8% 11.6% 63.1% -25.2% -48.7%
Exports 2.1% 0.2% -1.0% 2.7% 2.1% -5.1% -5.5%
===============================================================================
Aug. July June May April March Feb.
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
===============================================================================
Imports 12.9% 10.7% 4.3% 1.9% -2.8% -2.4% 2.4%
-------------------Seasonally Adjusted Yen Level-------------------
Balance -113.3 114.5 73.2 485.3 612.2 654.0 604.3
3-mo. avg 24.8 224.3 390.2 583.8 623.5 693.3 666.8
Exports 7,332.1 7,347.4 7,258.6 7,199.0 6,913.3 7,136.9 7,052.1
Imports 7,445.3 7,232.9 7,185.4 6,713.7 6,301.1 6,482.9 6,447.8
-------------------Month-on-Month Percent Change-------------------
Balance -199.0% 56.3% -84.9% -20.7% -6.4% 8.2% -26.4%
Exports -0.2% 1.2% 0.8% 4.1% -3.1% 1.2% -2.6%
Imports 2.9% 0.7% 7.0% 6.5% -2.8% 0.5% 0.4%
---------------------Three-Month Percent Change--------------------
Balance -95.8% -64.0% -43.7% -12.4% -15.6% -14.4% -31.4%
Exports 3.2% 3.3% -0.3% -1.1% -2.2% -0.2% 0.8%
Imports 12.1% 9.9% 4.4% 0.1% -0.7% 1.6% 5.9%
===============================================================================

NOTE: Levels are in billions of yen. Three-month percentage changes are calculated as the three-month average change from the prior three- month average.

SOURCE: Ministry of Finance

To contact the reporter of this story: Minh Bui in Tokyo at mbui@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Philippine Import Growth Quickens on Rising Oil Price

By Karl Lester M. Yap

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Philippine imports rose at the fastest pace in five months in July as oil prices climbed to unprecedented levels.

Imports grew 16 percent from a year earlier to $5.85 billion, after gaining 12.7 percent in June, the National Statistics Office said in Manila today.

The rising cost of buying oil from overseas prompted the central bank to increase its trade-deficit forecast to $13.2 billion this year from $11 billion, Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said on Sept. 19. A widening trade gap has contributed to the peso's 11 percent decline this year, making imports even more expensive.

``The abrupt rise in commodity prices is fueling the trade deficit,'' said Jonathan Ravelas, an economist at Manila-based Banco de Oro Unibank Inc. ``Going forward, import growth may slow because we have seen oil prices come down.''

Crude futures have fallen by about a quarter after reaching an unprecedented $147.27 a barrel on July 11 in New York. Prices of rice and other commodities rose to records earlier this year.

The Philippines' trade deficit widened to $1.41 billion in July from $793 million a year earlier, today's report showed. The shortfall for the first seven months of the year was $5.35 billion, compared with $1.7 billion a year earlier.

Rate Increases

Surging food and fuel prices have pushed inflation to the fastest in more than 16 years in a nation that buys almost all of its oil overseas and is the world's biggest rice importer. That prompted the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate for the third straight month in August, to 6 percent.

Crude oil and other fuel imports jumped 71.8 percent in July from a year earlier to $1.76 billion after gaining 75.7 percent the previous month. Oil in New York traded at an average of $133.48 a barrel in July, 80 percent higher than a year earlier.

Imports of electronics parts fell 17.4 percent from a year earlier to $1.75 billion, suggesting exports will weaken in the coming months. Finished consumer electronics make up about two- thirds of total exports.

Exports rose a revised 4.4 percent in July, compared with the preliminary 4.3 percent gain announced on Sept. 10.

To contact the reporter on this story: Karl Lester M. Yap in Manila at Kyap5@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

Taiwan May Keep Key Rate Unchanged on Dimming Growth Prospects

By Janet Ong

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan's central bank may leave interest rates unchanged today, ending a four-year campaign of raising borrowing costs, as inflation pressures ease and economic growth slows.

Governor Perng Fai-nan and his board will keep the discount rate on 10-day loans to banks at 3.625 percent, according to 10 of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Two expect a rate cut, and one forecasts an increase. The bank's decision is due after 5 p.m. in Taipei.

The bank last week reduced the amount of deposits that lenders are required to set aside as reserves and injected funds into the money market as global financial turmoil worsened after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Policy makers in China, Australia and New Zealand lowered interest rates this month as the world's economic prospects dimmed.

``Downside risks to growth should become more of a priority for the central bank than upside inflation risk,'' said Sean Yokota, an economist at UBS AG in Hong Kong. ``Interest-rate increases are finished in Taiwan, and we forecast cuts to start in March 2009.''

The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) raised borrowing costs at each quarterly meeting between September 2004 and June 2008, increasing the benchmark rate from a low of 1.375 percent.

Falling fuel prices and slowing growth cooled the island's inflation to 4.78 percent in August from a 14-year high of 5.91 percent in July. Consumer prices in China last month weakened to the slowest pace since June 2007 and Hong Kong's inflation moderated for the first time in five months.

Less Pressure

``Inflation in Taiwan has eased so that takes away the pressure for the central bank to raise rates,'' said Alan Liao, an economist at Chinatrust Commercial Bank in Taipei. ``The dismal global conditions may hurt external demand and damp domestic consumption.''

Exports make up about 50 percent of the economy and have been a major driver of Taiwan's six-year economic expansion.

United Microelectronics Corp. said this week it will restrict hiring amid slowing demand for semiconductors. The Hsinchu, Taiwan-based chipmaker forecasts third-quarter revenue may fall because of flat shipments and a decline in prices.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest custom-chip maker, forecast third-quarter sales below analysts expectations on slower demand from U.S. customers such as Texas Instruments Inc. and Nvidia Corp.

Taiwan's export orders increased by the least in five years in August as demand from China fell and sales to the U.S. slowed. The jobless rate rose to a six-month high of 3.93 percent.

Falling Shares

The island's benchmark Taiex index has tumbled 28 percent this year, more than declines in equity markets in Japan, South Korea and Singapore, on mounting signs of an economic slowdown.

Falling share prices have reduced investors' wealth and, coupled with rising living costs, prompted consumers to cut spending. Retail sales fell 1.9 percent in August from a year earlier, the third consecutive decline.

The government on Sept. 11 announced a NT$180.9 billion ($5.6 billion) package of spending and tax cuts aimed at bolstering domestic demand and reviving the stock market.

``Taiwan's economic decline will become more significant and it is better to cut rates sooner than later so it can be more effective,'' said Cheng Cheng-mount, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Taipei.

Cheng is one of two economists in the Bloomberg survey to predict a rate reduction of 12.5 basis points today.

Following are economists' forecasts for Taiwan's benchmark interest rate at today's meeting:


==========================================
9/24/2008 Benchmark
Rate
==========================================
Date of Release 25-Sep

Median 3.625%
Average 3.625%
High Forecast 3.750%
Low Forecast 3.500%
Number of Participants 13
Previous 3.625%
------------------------------------------
Barclays Capital 3.625%
CFC Seymour 3.500%
Citigroup 3.500%
Chinatrust Commercial Bank 3.625%
DBS Group 3.625%
Forecast Singapore 3.750%
HSBC 3.625%
Ideaglobal 3.625%
ING Bank 3.625%
Japan Center for Intl Finance 3.625%
KGI Securities 3.625%
Reuters IFR 3.625%
SinoPac Holdings 3.625%
==========================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Janet Ong in Taipei at jong3@bloomberg.net





Read more...

New Zealand Economy in Recession, May Prompt More Rate Cuts

By Tracy Withers

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's economy probably slumped into its first recession in 10 years in the second quarter, adding pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates to a three-year low next month.

Gross domestic product shrank 0.5 percent in the three months ended June 30 after contracting 0.3 percent in the first quarter, according to the median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The GDP report is released tomorrow at 10:45 a.m. in Wellington.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard has cut the benchmark interest rate by three quarters of a point to 7.5 percent since July to try to kick-start the economy. New Zealand's dollar is the worst performer among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, falling 14 percent against the U.S. dollar the past six months as traders increased bets on further rate cuts.

``Confirmation of a recession could encourage the market to price in further monetary easing,'' said Doug Steel, senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington. The contraction ``will do little to calm investors' nerves.''

Bollard cut the record-high official cash rate in July by a quarter-point to 8 percent, his first reduction in five years, when most economists expected no change. He followed on Sept. 11 with a half-point cut to 7.5 percent when all but one analyst forecast a quarter-point change.

Nine of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect another half-point cut at the next review on Oct. 23, taking the benchmark to a three-year low of 7 percent.

Consumer Confidence

Bollard has urged banks to pass on the savings to customers, saying the economy is experiencing a ``marked slowdown led by the household sector.''

The central bank forecast the economy contracted 0.2 percent in the second quarter and will probably slow further in the three months ended Sept. 30.

Consumer confidence fell to a 17-year low in the second quarter as food prices soared, fuel costs reached a record and home-loan interest rates remained at an all-time high.

Retail sales slumped 1.5 percent in the same period, the most in at least 13 years, as consumers had little left to spend on computers or dining out.

``A clear shift in consumer sentiment occurred during this period, which placed significant pressure on retail sales, with margins coming under further pressure as retailers sought to clear seasonal inventories,'' Ian Morrice, chief executive officer at Warehouse Group Ltd., said this month.

Profits Plunge

Auckland-based Warehouse Group, the nation's biggest discount retailer, reported a 52 percent plunge in profit in the six months ended July 27.

When customers stopped visiting his Wellington audio- equipment store, owner Digby Paape cut prices and ran special promotions to boost sales.

``If we didn't have the promotions, floor traffic could have dried up,'' said Paape, who sells Bose Corp. equipment such as the NZ$9,000 ($6,120) Lifestyle 48 home entertainment system. ``With the cost of those systems, our customers are more vulnerable to falls in confidence.''

Record-high borrowing costs also stalled the housing market, while a drought crimped farm production and exports.

Construction fell 5.8 percent from the first quarter as home building slumped for a third consecutive quarter, according to a government report on Sept. 8.

Housing Slump

House prices are falling and home sales tumbled to a 26- year low in August, according to the Real Estate Institute.

Exports fell 3.7 percent from the first quarter when they dropped 3.9 percent as a drought crimped milk production, according to a government report on Sept. 10. Overseas shipments make up one-third of the economy.

Farmers produced 4.3 percent less milk in the year ended June 30, Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world's largest dairy exporter, said yesterday.

The following are economists' forecasts for the change in the second-quarter gross domestic product from the first quarter and from a year earlier. The table also shows the annual average growth rate:


                                               Annual
QoQ% YoY% Average
----------------------------------------------------
Median -0.5% 0.6% 2.3%
High Forecast -0.3% 0.8% 2.3%
Low Forecast -0.6% 0.5% 2.3%
No. of replies 13 13 11
----------------------------------------------------
4Cast -0.6% 0.5% 2.3%
ANZ Bank -0.5% 0.6% 2.3%
ASB Bank -0.3% 0.7% 2.3%
Bank of New Zealand -0.4% 0.7% 2.3%
Barclays -0.5% 0.5% ---
Citibank -0.4% 0.6% 2.3%
Deutsche Bank -0.5% 0.5% 2.3%
First NZ Capital -0.5% 0.6% 2.3%
Goldman Sachs JBWere -0.3% 0.7% 2.3%
JPMorgan -0.3% 0.7% ---
Macquarie -0.6% 0.5% 2.3%
UBS Warburg -0.3% 0.8% 2.3%
Westpac Bank -0.5% 0.6% 2.3%
=======================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Tracy Withers in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

RBA Says Australian Banks Lend Less to Weather Storm

By Jacob Greber

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's financial system is weathering the global credit turmoil better than many others around the world as local banks cut lending and focus on their funding, the central bank said.

``Notwithstanding this positive position, the Australian financial system has felt the impact'' of global difficulties, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in its half-yearly Financial Stability Review published today in Sydney. ``The general increase in uncertainty has also meant that most banks are taking a more cautious attitude to lending.''

Australian financial companies including Macquarie Group Ltd., Babcock & Brown Ltd. and National Australia Bank Ltd. are among the Asia-Pacific region's biggest losers from a global credit squeeze that has forced the U.S. to propose a $700 billion Wall Street rescue package. While ``strong and profitable,'' the nation's five largest banks have almost tripled provisions for bad debts to A$3.1 billion ($2.6 billion), the report said.

``The past year has been a very challenging one for the many financial systems,'' today's report said. ``A return to more settled conditions will require a rebuilding of confidence in many overseas financial institutions and further steps to strengthen their balance sheets.''

Australia's dollar traded at 83.63 U.S. cents at 11:32 a.m. in Sydney from 83.62 before the central bank's statement was released. The two-year government bond yield was little changed at 5.51 percent.

`Grave Threats'

Today's report, which was finalized yesterday, comes after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. is facing ``grave threats'' to financial stability and warned that the credit crisis has started to damage household and business spending.

The Fed arranged yesterday to channel $10 billion through Australia's Reserve Bank to relieve shortages of U.S. dollars in the local market as Bernanke broadens efforts to revive confidence amid concern Washington's plan to rescue the banking system faces delays in Congress.

Uncertainty about whether the U.S. can resolve the credit logjam has buffeted Australian banking stocks and driven up the cost of short-term funding.

The difference between the rate banks charge each other for three-month loans and the overnight indexed swap rate was 85 basis points at 8:43 a.m. in Sydney today. The gap was 29 basis points at the start of the month.

Bank Shares

Before the stock exchange opened today, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation's largest mortgage provider, had fallen 25 percent this year, Westpac Banking Corp. had shed 12 percent, National Australia tumbled 32 percent and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. was down 32 percent.

Macquarie, Australia's biggest investment bank, was down 48 percent on the year and infrastructure developer Babcock had tumbled 94 percent, the worst performing stock on the MSCI Asia- Pacific Index.

Australia's five largest lenders increased provisions for bad and doubtful debts to A$3.1 billion in the first half of 2008, compared with A$1.2 billion in year-earlier period, today's report shows.

The increase is due ``to the general deterioration in the credit environment, both in Australia and overseas,'' as well increased risk from ``highly leveraged companies that have experienced difficulties in the current environment,'' the central bank report said.

Melbourne-based ANZ Bank has tripled provisions for bad debts this year after lending to troubled financial companies including Allco Finance Group and Centro Properties Group.

National Australia

National Australia may seek to offload its A$1 billion in U.S. subprime mortgage-related investments as part of the U.S. government's $700 billion Wall Street rescue package, the Australian newspaper reported today, citing a report by Goldman Sachs Group.

The higher charges mean bank profits will fall ``in the near term,'' the central bank report said, citing analysts' forecasts that aggregate earnings at the biggest banks will be around 10 percent lower in the second half of 2008 than the same period last year.

Should that happen, the 2008 post-tax return on equity, a measure of how well companies invest shareholders' money, would be around 16 percent, the Reserve Bank said.

While lower than the average return over the past decade, this would ``be much higher than that being earned in many other banking systems around the world and many other industries in Australia.''

Profits after tax at Australia's biggest banks rose 12 percent to around A$10 billion for the latest half year, the central bank said.

``The banking system is soundly capitalized, it has only limited exposure to sub-prime-related assets, and it continues to record strong profitability and has low levels of problem loans,'' today's report said.

To contact the reporter for this story: Jacob Greber in Sydney at jgreber@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Japan's Tankan Business Confidence May Fall to a Five-Year Low

By Jason Clenfield

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sentiment among Japan's largest manufacturers probably fell to a five-year low amid the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression, a central bank survey is expected to show next week.

An index that measures confidence among large makers of cars and electronics slid to minus 2 from 5, economists predict the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey will show on Oct. 1. It would be the first time since 2003 that the index is negative, which means pessimists outnumber optimists.

``The consensus view is that Japan is already in a recession,'' said Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley. ``We expect the September Tankan to reinforce the market's perception that the recession could be longer and deeper than generally believed.''

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said last week there's no end in sight to the financial crisis that has erased more than $14 trillion from world markets this year. He said that the turmoil may stifle demand for exports even though the effect on the nation's banks is limited.

Corporate executives filled out their questionnaires for the Tankan in the same weeks as the bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

``You can be sure that current developments are pushing sentiment down,'' said Martin Schulz, a senior economist at Fujitsu Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The question is whether the change in sentiment will change long-term investment plans.''

Three-Year Low

The turmoil in the U.S. sent the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a three-year low and the yen to a three-month high against the dollar last week. A government survey yesterday showed the nation's manufacturers were pessimistic for a third quarter.

Economists predict that Japan's largest companies will keep their spending plans unchanged from the previous survey, when they said they plan to increase investment 2.4 percent this year. While that pace is slower than the average of the past five years, it is still better than reductions made by corporations in the last recession.

Most economists including Morgan Stanley's Sato say the world's second-largest economy is already in a recession after a drop in exports caused the economy to contract an annualized 3 percent in the second quarter. The slump is still not as serious as previous recessions, some say.

`More Moderate'

``What's happening now is far more moderate than what happened in 2001 or 1998 because at those times the domestic corporate sector was under tremendous stress,'' said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Firms and banks were worried about their survival. I don't think that's the case this time around.''

Even if the large manufacturer index falls to minus 2, it would still be above numbers recorded during Japan's most recent recession, which ended in 2002. The survey plunged to minus 51 in 1998, when Asia was in the throes of a currency crisis and the government had to buy failed lenders including Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan Ltd.

Economists say companies are better able to withstand the slowdown because they have shed the excess workers, production lines and debt that contributed to a decade of economic stagnation in the 1990s. The debt-to-equity ratio of Nikkei 225 Stock Average companies has dropped an average of 7 percent annually over the past five years, Bloomberg data show.

Oil Price Drop

Further declines in oil prices, which have eased 27 percent since reaching a record in July, could benefit Japanese companies even more than their competitors, according to Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London.

Still, the financial crisis will probably take an indirect toll on the economy, as growth slows in the overseas markets where Japanese manufacturers sell their products.

``Sales in Europe in Asia and Europe are already tanking. The CEOS and theirs boards are extremely concerned,'' Fujitsu's Schulz said. ``I don't think they'll change their entire strategies. But no more business travel, no more new office space, no more new hires.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net



Read more...

McCormick Says Credit Crisis Is Threat to Entire U.S. Economy

By Rebecca Christie

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Mortgage-market woes could pull down the entire U.S. economy unless the government takes quick action to help credit markets heal, David McCormick, the Treasury's undersecretary for international affairs, said today.

``The failure to address the troubled mortgage-related assets would mean that every aspect of our financial and funding markets, ranging from consumer credit to money-market funds, would be impaired,'' McCormick said in a speech prepared for delivery by videoconference to a Hong Kong investors' forum.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are struggling to get Congress to approve a $700 billion plan to buy troubled assets from banks and unfreeze credit markets. They face opposition from Democratic and Republican lawmakers, concerned that taxpayers stand to lose too much.

``Now is the time to act quickly, decisively and collaboratively with regulators and market participants around the world to restore stability and confidence to our markets,'' McCormick said.

The chain reaction that began with bad housing loans and spread through Wall Street led to U.S. credit markets tightening ``dramatically'' last week, with even some non-financial companies finding it difficult to finance day-to-day operations, the official said.

``If this situation was to persist, it would threaten all parts of the U.S. economy,'' he said.

Lawmakers are negotiating whether to scale back Paulson's plan, shift its focus or supplement it with provisions to assist homeowners and prevent taxpayer losses.

Bernanke said yesterday that the U.S. is facing ``grave threats'' to financial stability and warned that the credit crisis has started to damage household and business spending.

``Economic activity appears to have decelerated broadly,'' he told a congressional Joint Economic Committee hearing, downgrading the assessment of Fed officials when they met on Sept. 16. ``Stabilization of our financial system is an essential precondition for economic recovery.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Rebecca Christie in Washington at rchristie4@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Japan's Export Growth Slows as U.S. Shipments Plunge

By Jason Clenfield

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's export growth slowed in August, led by a record drop in shipments to the U.S., increasing the likelihood the economy is in a recession.

Japanese exports grew 0.3 percent from a year earlier after rising 8 percent the previous month, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 2.3 percent increase.

A drop in demand for Japan's exports, the main driver of growth for the past six years, is weakening a nation already suffering from weak consumer spending at home. Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, appointed by Prime Minister Taro Aso yesterday, said today the government will consider cutting taxes and increasing spending to buoy the flagging economy.

``Exports are the key for Japan's recovery,'' said Noriaki Matsuoka, an economist at Daiwa Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``This is a tough situation for Japan's exporters given that we can't envision a pickup in the U.S. economy.''

The yen traded at 105.99 per dollar at 10:35 a.m. in Tokyo from 106.06 before the report was published.

``Exports and capital investment, which led Japan's economy, are getting in a worrisome situation,'' Nakagawa said at a press conference. ``We need to do whatever we can do.''


Japan had a trade deficit of 324 billion yen ($3 billion), the first since January, because of record oil imports. The nation's import bill rose 17 percent from a year earlier.

Shipments to the U.S. plunged 21.8 percent last month, the biggest decline on record, and exports to Europe fell 3.5 percent, today's report said. Weak overseas demand caused the economy to shrink an annualized 3 percent last quarter.

Cut Production

Since August, some of Japan's biggest manufacturers have lowered sales targets and announced cost-cutting measures that could start to take a toll on smaller companies that supply them.

Toyota Motor Corp. last month reported its biggest earnings decline in five years, citing a slump in U.S. sales. The automaker has fired workers, cut production of some of its U.S.- bound vehicles and scrapped a 2009 sales goal. Grim prospects for exporters have sent shares of Nissan Motor Co. down 38 percent this year, while Sony Corp. shares have shed 46 percent.

``Exports have been the main driver of the recent economic expansion. Without them the downside risks are heightened,'' said Junko Nishioka, an economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. Overseas sales won't recover until the U.S. economy picks up, she said.

`Sluggish'

The Bank of Japan last week used the word ``sluggish'' to describe the economy, saying that poor export sales and high material costs have cut into margins.

Sales in Europe, Asia and emerging markets supported export growth in the 11 months through July as shipments to the U.S. declined. Now those markets are also deteriorating.

The European economy shrank for the first time in almost a decade last quarter, and European Union Economic Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said this month that the outlook is ``unusually uncertain.'' Growth in China, which last month overtook the U.S as Japan's No. 1 export customer, has slowed for four quarters.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net




Read more...

Why Mark-to-Paulson Accounting Won't Save Banks: Jonathan Weil

Commentary by Jonathan Weil

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- There's one glaring weakness in Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's plan to save the U.S. financial system: We know what the plan is. Any other problems with it are mere details.

Much like the credo of Brad Pitt's character in the 1999 movie ``Fight Club,'' the first rule of market manipulation is you don't talk about market manipulation.

Give Paulson a $700 billion check without asking any questions, and the former Goldman Sachs boss might have a shot at kick-starting the credit markets using some mysterious, black- box, trading sorcery. Because the money isn't his, though, he has to give us at least a vague outline of what he's up to. Now, even if Congress approves some form of his proposal, it's far less likely to work because we're all in on the deal.

The plan goes like this: Treasury will pay financial institutions above-market prices for garbage assets nobody else wants. Then, through the magic of mark-to-Paulson accounting, everybody else that owns similar stuff will use those same prices, or marks, to value the trash on their own balance sheets.

Shazam! Banks and insurance companies write up the asset values on their books. They post big profits. Their capital goes up. Everyone gets fooled. And nobody knows the difference.

Except, we do. And that's why the plan probably won't work.

Still, give Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke credit for ingenuity. At the same time banks are begging regulators to suspend mark-to-market accounting rules so they can avoid disclosing more losses, Paulson and Bernanke instead devise a way to abuse the same rules for the same banks' benefit.

Put It in Reverse

Under Paulson's plan, Treasury would hold so-called reverse auctions for financial institutions' troubled assets. Whoever submits the lowest bid gets to sell its junky assets to Treasury for cash.

While that might look like a competitive, free-market mechanism, it's not. Once the first bid in the first auction is submitted, it may not go much lower, and it probably will be much higher than the true market value.

That's because the real incentive for the banks isn't to sell their rubbish to Treasury and get cash. It's to watch the Treasury pay grossly inflated prices to others. That way, they can use those transactions for accounting purposes to mark their books to the Treasury's farcical market prices.

This presents another problem. The transaction prices coming out of these auctions may not meet the accepted definition of fair value. Under the Financial Accounting Standards Board's definition, fair value is the price ``in an orderly transaction between market participants.''

Stretched Rules

A know-nothing buyer that sets up a rigged market to overpay for dreck wouldn't seem to count as a ``market participant,'' under the FASB's definition of the term. To qualify, a buyer must be ``knowledgeable, having a reasonable understanding about the asset or liability and the transaction based on all available information.''

It would be a stretch to say the Treasury knows or understands anything about the swill it would be buying. Even if regulators waived the accounting rules to permit this, investors would see it as government-sponsored fraud and lose any confidence they still had about banks' balance sheets.

So, the main hope for Paulson's plan is that Treasury makes enough outrageously expensive purchases to spur real market participants to start buying the toxic waste from each other again, even if only in hopes of flipping it for more money to the spendthrift Treasury.

Pain Avoidance

In that case, the prices paid outside the auction process probably would qualify as ``fair value.'' Then, over time, maybe the prices in Treasury's auctions would come down as competition increased.

If the prices drop too much, though, banks will wind up taking huge losses and failing anyway, which is what Paulson and Bernanke are supposedly trying to avoid. All the while, the Treasury would be spending as much as $700 billion getting us right back where we started. And a lot of Wall Street charlatans who should lose their shirts would expand their fortunes, which is politically and morally untenable.

Whatever the government proposes probably won't work as intended. It also could make things worse. This seems to have dawned on a lot of people in Congress this week while they watched Bernanke and Paulson testify. Even if Congress fails to act, that wouldn't mean Paulson's plan was a disaster. In one respect, the details of his plan don't matter.

By making it known on the afternoon of Sept. 18 that he had a bailout proposal, at precisely the moment when the financial system seemed to be tipping over the edge, Paulson bought the markets the most valuable commodity of all -- time.

Years from now, when we look back on the past week's events, we may conclude this was his real goal all along.

(Jonathan Weil is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Jonathan Weil in New York at jweil6@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Investec Targets A$2 Billion of Australian Wind Farms

By Angela Macdonald-Smith

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Investec, the South African investment bank, intends to develop more than A$2 billion ($1.7 billion) of wind-power projects in Australia to tap a government program encouraging increased use of renewable energy.

The bank won planning approval this week for a A$700 million venture in Western Australia and is seeking clearance for a A$210 million project in Victoria state, said Mark Headland, responsible for renewable energy developments at the bank's Australian unit. Those will be followed by a larger project, costing at least A$1.2 billion, in Queensland, he said.

Australia's Labor government has committed to a target of increasing use of renewable energy to 20 percent of electricity supplies by 2020 to tackle global warming. Conergy AG, Origin Energy Ltd. and Mitsui & Co. are among companies seeking to gain from the clean-energy target, which should ensure revenue for wind and solar projects that otherwise wouldn't be profitable.

``We're very excited about the government's impending 20 percent renewables target; it's what drives our interest in becoming involved in these projects,'' Adelaide-based Headland said late yesterday in a telephone interview. ``The key to the process is obviously the market support implicit in'' the regulations that will underpin the target, he said.

The government has set a timetable of having its renewable energy target legislated by the middle of next year. It proposes to aim for an extra 45,000 gigawatt-hours of renewable energy supply by 2020, which, with existing supply of about 15,000 gigawatt-hours, will take 2020 use to 60,000 gigawatt-hours.

Collgar, Oaklands Hill

Investec will probably start detailed design work on the 270-megawatt Collgar project, about 295 kilometers (183 miles) east of the Western Australian capital of Perth, in the first quarter of next year, Headland said. The project will produce enough electricity to power about 160,000 homes.

Similar work should get underway on the 43-turbine Oaklands Hill project south of Glenthompson in western Victoria state about the same time, depending on approval, he said.

The two projects, Investec's first wind energy ventures in Australia, may start operating in late 2010, Headland said. The Coopers Gap project, about 180 kilometers northwest of the Queensland capital Brisbane, will involve as many as 250 turbines and may start up in early to mid-2011, Headland said.

Investec expects to lodge a development application for the 500-megawatt Coopers Gap venture within 2-3 months after getting a ``strong level of support'' at a public open day last month, he said. The project will power about 249,000 homes.

Ownership Options

The Johannesburg-based bank will ``consider its options'' for the final ownership of the projects, and may continue to hold 100 percent or sell stakes to partners, Headland said. The ventures may be project financed or funded from Investec's balance sheet, he said. Development work is being carried out with Canberra-based Windlab Systems Pty., which Investec Bank (Australia) Ltd. also partners in wind energy projects in New Zealand.

AGL Energy Ltd., Origin and closely held TME Australia are among companies that have won approval for, or bought rights to build, wind energy projects in Australia this year, while Conergy, Germany's largest solar power company, announced plans in October to spend A$2 billion to build the country's biggest wind energy project. Mitsui is also studying developing a wind power business in Australia.

To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net



Read more...

Japan's Oil, LNG Imports Fall on Cool Summer, Prices

By Shigeru Sato and Yuji Okada

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's crude oil and natural gas imports declined in August as cooler summer temperatures cut use by utilities and record gasoline prices slashed motorist demand.

Japan, the third-biggest oil consumer, imported 20.34 million kiloliters, or about 4.13 million barrels a day, of crude last month, down 3.3 percent from a year earlier, a finance ministry report released in Tokyo today shows. Imports of liquefied natural gas fell 2.1 percent to 5.71 million metric tons.

Lower temperatures in Tokyo and other major cities contributed to a drop of as much as 5.4 percent in the 10 regional utilities' electricity output, slashing crude and fuel oil requirements by 14 percent from a year earlier, according to the Federation of Electric Power Companies.

The oil import bill climbed 64 percent to 1.87 trillion yen ($17.6 billion), as crude oil futures in New York stayed above $110 a barrel in August. Japan's coal imports last month increased 2.8 percent to 17.1 million tons.

Increased crude prices pushed up the cost of gasoline at the pump to record levels, prompting motorists to pare fuel purchases last month, traditionally a peak driving period.

Average Temperatures

The average temperature in the Otemachi financial district in central Tokyo was 26.8 degrees Celsius, 2.2 degrees lower than the average in August last year, according to the meteorological agency.

Japan's 10 regional utilities led by Tokyo Electric Power Co. burned a total of 1.82 million kiloliters of crude and fuel oil, down 14 percent from a year earlier, data from the power federation show.

LNG is natural gas that has been chilled to liquid form, reducing it to one-six-hundredth of its original volume at minus 161 degrees Celsius (minus 259 Fahrenheit), for transportation by ship to destinations not connected by pipeline. On arrival, it's turned back into gas for distribution to power plants, factories and households.

To contact the reporters on this story: Shigeru Sato in Tokyo at ssato10@bloomberg.net; Yuji Okada in Tokyo at yokada6@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

OPEC Says Oil May Gain on Hedging Against Dollar: Chart of Day

By Will Kennedy and Ahmed Rouaba

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC President Chakib Khelil said oil prices may rise as investors hedge against a depreciating U.S. dollar.

``The price depends on the dollar, it has nothing to do with oil demand and supply,'' Khelil, who is also Algeria's energy minister, told reporters yesterday in Algiers. ``If the dollar weakens, oil will go up.''

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the correlation between New York oil prices and the exchange rate of the dollar versus the euro. The 6.7 percent one-day gain in November crude futures on Sept. 22 coincided with the largest drop for the dollar versus the euro since the single currency's inception in 1999.

The dollar may get ``crushed'' as the cost of bailing out banks causes U.S. borrowing to balloon, John Taylor, chairman of International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world's biggest currency hedge-fund firm, said earlier this week.

Oil offers investors protection against a weaker U.S. currency because dollar-priced commodities become cheaper to foreign buyers as the dollar drops.

To contact the reporter on this story: Will Kennedy in London at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net; Ahmed Rouaba in Algiers through the newsroom in London at rouaba@hotmail.com.





Read more...

Hong Kong Interbank Rate Jump Allows for Arbitrage, Calyon Says

By Bob Chen

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- A surge in Hong Kong's interbank loan rates, stemming from concern the U.S. Congress will delay a proposed $700 billion bank bailout, has opened up an arbitrage opportunity for lenders, Calyon said.

The three-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate, or Hibor, the benchmark for what Hong Kong banks charge each other for loans over that period, rose 36 basis points yesterday to this year's high of 3.66 percent as investors cut holdings of riskier assets financed via the city. That's 18 points above the cost of U.S. dollar loans over the same timeframe, making it worth borrowing the greenback and receiving a higher yield on Hong Kong dollar assets. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Hong Kong's currency board links the exchange rate to the U.S. dollar, meaning the city's interest rates follow that of the Federal Reserve. The currency, which is allowed to trade 5 cents either side of HK$7.8, was little changed at HK$7.766 as of 9:14 a.m. in Hong Kong.

``I think the currency board is going to stay, so in a few months, you can make a risk-free profit,'' said Sebastien Barbe, a currency strategist in Hong Kong at Calyon, the investment banking unit of France's Credit Agricole SA. ``These days, the market is not convinced that the U.S. plan will go through quickly, so you may see a bigger spike in Hibor. But on a mid- term basis I'm convinced the spread over Libor will close.''

The three-month London interbank offered rate for dollars rose 27 basis points to 3.48 percent yesterday, the highest since Jan. 22. The Hong Kong rate rose exceeded Libor on Sept. 23 for the first time since October 2007.

Volatile Markets

``The normal pattern is not being followed right now because of all the volatility in money market rates,'' said David Cohen, an economist at Action Economics in Singapore. ``If the exchange rates between Hong Kong and the U.S. are going to be so closely linked, then the short-term interest rates have to be directly linked. Or there'll be arbitrage opportunities.''

Hibor is climbing as concern banks may fail prompts investors to shun riskier assets. A seizure of credit markets has so far this month forced Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to file the biggest bankruptcy in history and prompted the U.S. government to take over the nation's biggest insurer and two largest mortgage-finance companies.

Bank of East Asia Ltd., Hong Kong's third-largest lender, yesterday faced Hong Kong's first bank run since the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis after cell-phone text messages questioned its viability. The bank issued statements saying its financial position is ``sound and stable'' and asked police to investigate the ``malicious rumors.''

``Hong Kong is a platform for global investors to invest in the rest of emerging Asia,'' Calyon's Barbe said. ``When risk aversion increases, it means money will leave Hong Kong and go back to the U.S. or London or Switzerland, for instance.''

Congressional leaders in Washington are weighing new ways to revise a rescue plan for U.S. financial companies after it became clear that U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's proposal faces resistance from both Democrats and Republicans.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Chen in Hong Kong at bchen45@bloomberg.net;



Read more...

Australia, New Zealand Dollars Slip on Concern Over U.S. Rescue

By Candice Zachariahs

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar fell a second day against the greenback and yen as concern U.S. lawmakers will delay a rescue plan for banks damped investor appetite for higher-yielding assets. New Zealand's dollar dropped.

The currencies, favorites for so-called carry trades, slid as the Standard and Poor's 500 Index ended down after swinging between gains and losses more than 40 times. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday the U.S. is facing ``grave threats'' to financial stability.

``The markets are still digesting the rescue package in the U.S.,'' said Alex Sinton, a senior currency dealer at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Auckland. ``The Australian and New Zealand dollars will remain within ranges today.''

The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent to 83.47 U.S. cents at 10:51 a.m. in Sydney from 83.79 cents in late Asian trading yesterday. It declined 0.5 percent to 88.49 yen from 88.93.

New Zealand's currency weakened to 68.35 U.S. cents from 68.42 cents yesterday. It bought 72.47 yen from 72.64.

Sinton expects Australia's currency to trade between 82.95 and 83.95 U.S. cents and the Kiwi, as New Zealand's currency is called, to trade between 67.80 and 68.80 cents.

The currencies slipped as lawmakers in the U.S. balked at rubber-stamping the Treasury's $700 billion rescue plan for financial institutions. Democrats, who control both houses of the U.S. Congress, are demanding the proposals include support for homeowners and limits on executive pay.

U.S. stocks fell for a third day with two stocks retreating for each one that gained on the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500, which on Sept. 23 capped its biggest two-day slump in six years, extended its decline this week to 5.5 percent. The S&P/ASX 200 Index of Australian stocks slipped 0.9 percent.

Carry Trades

Benchmark interest rates are 7 percent in Australia and 7.5 percent in New Zealand, compared with 0.5 percent in Japan and 2 percent in the U.S., luring investors to the South Pacific nations' assets. The currencies are favorites with investors using carry trades to seek higher returns using funds received in a country with low borrowing costs. The risk is that exchange-rate fluctuations erase profits.

Australian government bonds were little changed. The yield on the 10-year note fell 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 5.698 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the 5.25 percent security due March 2019 gained 0.061, or A$0.61 per A$1,000 face amount, to 96.503.

New Zealand's two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, rose to 6.995 percent today from 6.990 yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Dollar Falls Before Home Sales, Traders Raise Fed Rate Cut Odds

By Ron Harui and Stanley White

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar ended two days of gains against the euro before a U.S. government report that economists estimate will show new home sales dropped and as traders raised bets for a Federal Reserve cut in interest rates next month.

The dollar declined versus the British pound and Swiss franc as President George W. Bush said the U.S. is in the ``midst of a serious financial crisis'' and ``our entire economy is in danger.'' Futures show 80 percent odds the Fed will lower borrowing costs in October compared with 58 percent on Sept. 23 as Congress delays a $700 billion bailout proposal.

``Sentiment is against the dollar and I don't expect a recovery before the end of this year,'' said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager of foreign exchange in Tokyo at Nomura Trust and Banking Co. Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest brokerage. ``The deteriorating U.S. economy is a risk to the dollar.''

The dollar fell to $1.4714 per euro as of 11:05 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4621 late in New York yesterday. It declined to 105.91 yen from 106.11. The euro was at 155.88 yen from 155.15.

The U.S. currency dropped to $1.8558 against the pound from $1.8465, slipped to 1.0836 versus the franc from 1.0916 and bought C$1.0358 from C$1.0386 to the Canadian dollar. South Korea's won fell to a four-year low.

`A Step Backward'

The greenback also weakened as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the financial system was ``frozen to a large extent'' and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. is facing ``grave threats'' to market stability.

The U.S. Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major trading partners, slipped to 76.584 from 76.788 yesterday. It touched 75.890 on Sept. 22, the lowest since Aug. 13.

``There has clearly been a little bit of a step backward in recent days with a lot of pushback from Congress with regards to this plan,'' said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York, in a Bloomberg television interview. ``At the end of the day, the U.S. is the epicenter of the financial crisis. The right medium-term trade is to be selling the dollar.''

Global money market rates have surged amid the reluctance of banks to lend as credit-market losses and writedowns surpassed $500 billion. The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the U.S. government takeover of American International Group Inc. only served to freeze up credit.

Money Markets

The dollar dropped versus 14 of the 16 most-active currencies today. It has fallen 5.5 percent against the euro since touching a one-year high of $1.3882 on Sept. 11. The dollar reached $1.6038 on July 15, the weakest level since the European currency made its debut in 1999.

Without the bailout, ``credit will be restricted further for homeownership, for small business, for individual consumers and so on, but that is not just an inconvenience,'' Bernanke said. ``What that is going to do is affect spending and economic activity and it will cause the economy as a whole to decline and be much weaker than it otherwise would be.''

The three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, the rate at which banks charge each other for loans in dollars, rose to 3.48 percent, the highest in eight months, according to the British Bankers' Association.

Sales of new houses in the U.S. fell to an annual rate of 510,000 last month from 515,000 in July, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Sales declined to a 503,000 pace in June, the lowest since 1991. The Commerce Department report is due at 10 a.m. in Washington.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net; Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Asia Commodities Day Ahead: Barrick Says Bullion Will Climb

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Barrick Gold Corp. said bullion prices will climb, driven by fears about how the U.S. government's bailout plan will affect the nation's currency. Gold, silver and platinum gained. Morgan Stanley will seek U.S. regulatory approval to retain its metals-dealing and raw- materials businesses after becoming a commercial bank. Corn rose, wheat fell and soybeans were unchanged. PPG Industries Inc. will shut factories in North America and Europe.

PRECIOUS METALS, GEMS

Barrick Sees `Large-Scale' Gold Buying on Credit Bailout

Barrick Gold Corp. Chairman Peter Munk said bullion prices will go higher, driven by large-scale buying by ``major, major'' holders of dollars who fear the effects of the U.S. government's bailout plan on the currency.

Barrick to Use Cash in Buying Smaller, Inexpensive Gold Miners

Barrick Gold Corp., the world's largest gold producer, said it will use cash rather than stock to make acquisitions after the credit crisis reduced the value of smaller gold companies, making them more affordable targets.

Gold, Silver Gain on Concern U.S. Bank Plan Will Weaken Dollar

Gold rose on speculation a proposed $700 billion plan to stabilize U.S. financial markets would weaken the dollar and boost demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Gold gained $3.80, or 0.4 percent, to $895 an ounce in New York. Silver climbed 27 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $13.44 an ounce.

Platinum, Palladium Rise as Dollar Declines, Commodities Gain

Platinum and palladium gained as the dollar fell against the euro, boosting demand for the precious metals as an alternative investment. Platinum rose $13, or 1.1 percent, to $1,225 an ounce in New York. Palladium climbed $2.10, or 0.8 percent, to $252.85 an ounce.

COMMODITIES INVESTMENT

Morgan Stanley Will Seek Further Fed Exemption in Commodities

Morgan Stanley, the second-largest bank in commodities trading, will seek U.S. regulatory approval to retain its oil tankers, metals dealing and raw-materials businesses after becoming a commercial bank this week.

STEEL, IRON ORE, COAL & URANIUM

Votorantim, Acesco to Build $1.5 Billion Steel Mill

Votorantim Group's steelmaking unit plans to build a $1.5 billion mill in Colombia with Acerias de Colombia SA.

INDUSTRIAL METALS, MINING

Copper Drops in N.Y. as Falling Home Sales Signal Slower Demand

Copper fell for a second day on speculation that the depressed U.S. housing market will continue to stifle economic growth and reduce metals demand. Copper dropped 4.55 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $3.1065 a pound in New York.

CHEMICALS

PPG Shuts Plants as Storms, Lower Demand Trim Profit

PPG Industries Inc., the world's second-largest paintmaker, will shut factories in North America and Europe as U.S. hurricanes, a strike at Boeing Co. and lower auto-parts demand reduced third-quarter earnings.

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

Pilgrim's Pride Trading Halted After Plunging a Record 38%

Pilgrim's Pride Corp., the biggest U.S. chicken producer, plunged 38 percent, the most ever, before trading was halted on the New York Stock Exchange.

Corn Rises as Buffett Buys Stake in Goldman; Soybeans Unchanged

Corn rose on speculation that Warren Buffett's purchase of a $5 billion stake in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will revive confidence in the U.S. banking system, preserving economic growth and demand for food. Corn climbed 2.75 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $5.63 a bushel in Chicago. Soybeans were unchanged at $11.87 a bushel.

Wheat Falls on U.S. Planting Progress, Global Production Gains

Wheat futures fell for the first time in four sessions as planting in the U.S. progresses and global production is expected to increase to a record. Wheat dropped 20.25 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $7.3025 a bushel in Chicago.

Cattle Futures Rise on Inflation Concerns; Hog Prices Drop

Cattle rose for the third time in four sessions on speculation that the U.S.'s $700 billion plan to end the credit crisis will increase the inflation rate, boosting demand for commodities as a hedge. Cattle gained 0.75 cent, or 0.7 percent, to $1.042 a pound in Chicago. Feeder cattle climbed 1.5 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $1.0745 a pound. Hogs fell 0.075 cent, or 0.1 percent, to 66.225 cents a pound.

SOFT COMMODITIES

Cocoa Climbs as Weakening Dollar Lifts Demand for Commodities

Cocoa rose to a three-week high as the dollar's decline against the euro lifted demand for commodities as alternative assets. Cocoa rose $55, or 2 percent, to $2,757 a metric ton in New York.

Cotton Falls as Mills May Shun Purchases Amid Financial Turmoil

Cotton fell for a second day on concern that overseas mills are postponing new purchases as U.S credit-market turbulence may curb demand for the fiber used in furniture and clothing. Cotton declined 0.95 cents, or 1.5 percent, to 61.35 cents a pound in New York.

Sugar Rises on Prospects of Tighter Supplies, More Ethanol Use

Sugar rose for a second day this week on speculation that supplies of the sweetener will tighten as mills in Brazil turn more cane into ethanol. Raw sugar gained 0.16 cent, or 1.1 percent, to 14.1 cents a pound in New York.

Coffee Rises on Speculation Demand Will Rise as Supply Dwindles

Coffee rose on speculation that colder Northern Hemisphere weather will boost hot-drink sales as production in Brazil and Colombia slows. Arabica coffee gained 0.75 cent, or 0.6 percent, to $1.3565 a pound in New York. Robusta climbed $10, or 0.5 percent, to $2,160 a metric ton in London.

Orange Juice Falls on Receding Storm Threats to Florida Groves

Orange juice fell for a fourth time in five sessions on speculation that storms brewing over the western Atlantic Ocean may not harm citrus groves in Florida. Orange juice dropped 0.15 cent or 0.2 percent, to 92.6 cents a pound in New York.



Read more...

Oil Is Little Changed After Falling on Plunge in U.S. Demand

By Christian Schmollinger

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed after dropping 3.3 percent in the last two days following a government report yesterday that showed U.S. fuel demand declined to the lowest in almost five years.

Consumption averaged 19.5 million barrels a day during the past four weeks, down 6.6 percent from a year earlier, and the lowest since October 2003, the Energy Department said in a weekly report. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell more than forecast in August, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday, a sign of the weakness in the economy.

``Oil has been on the slide and it's all driven by the slowdown in the U.S. demand,'' said Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. ``Demand is off because the U.S. is heading to a recession. All the indicators are suggesting the consumer is finding it tough out there.''

Crude oil for November delivery was at $105.70 a barrel, down 3 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:28 a.m. Singapore time. It earlier fell as much as 0.6 percent to $105.13 a barrel. Yesterday, futures dropped 88 cents to settle at $105.73 a barrel on Nymex.

Production platforms, refineries and ports along the Gulf of Mexico were shut last week in the aftermath of hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which struck earlier this month.

Ike made landfall near Houston, the largest U.S. petroleum port, on Sept. 13. The Houston Ship Channel partly reopened to daylight transit by oceangoing tankers on Sept. 17. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the biggest U.S. oil-import terminal, resumed tanker unloading on Sept. 15 after being shut Sept. 10.

Production Idled

U.S. energy producers still have about 62 percent of oil production idled in the Gulf, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said in a statement on its Web site. The area accounts for about 26 percent of U.S. oil output.

About 52 of 3,800 oil and gas production platforms were destroyed by Ike, while 29 platforms suffered extensive damage, MMS said. This means it could take up to six months for them to return to service. Another 33 others received moderate damage, meaning they could be producing in a month, MMS said.

U.S. oil and gasoline supplies dropped as refineries cut operating rates to the lowest in at least 19 years.

Supplies of crude oil fell 1.52 million barrels to 290.2 million in the week ended Sept. 19, the department said. Crude- oil imports tumbled 16 percent to 7.14 million barrels a day, the lowest since January 2000.

Gasoline stockpiles dropped 5.9 million barrels to 178.7 million barrels, the lowest since 1967. Inventory levels prior to 1990 were reported on a monthly basis. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 4.18 million barrels to 125.4 million barrels.

Refinery Utilization

Refineries operated at 66.7 percent of capacity last week, the lowest since the department began compiling weekly figures in 1989. The previous low was 69.8 percent of capacity, touched in September 2005, when refineries along the Gulf Coast were shut after hurricanes Katrina and Rita battered the region.

Brent crude oil for November settlement was at $102.67 a barrel, up 22 cents, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at 9:01 a.m. Singapore time. It declined yesterday 63 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $102.45 a barrel yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

Australia Stocks: Babcock, GPT, Macquarie Group, National Bank

By Shani Raja

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 44.20 points, or 0.9 percent, to 4,937.70 at 10:20 a.m. in Sydney. The broader All Ordinaries Index lost 39 points, or 0.8 percent, to 4,969.20, while the futures index expiring in December declined 1.3 percent to 4,986.

Financial stocks: National Australia Bank Ltd. (NAB AU), the nation's largest lender by assets, dropped 73 cents, or 2.9 percent, to A$24.87, the most in a week. Macquarie Group Ltd. (MQG AU), Australia's largest investment bank, fell A$1.20, or 3 percent, to A$38.80.

U.S. stocks fell for a third day on concern lawmakers will derail a White House plan to bail out banks even as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned of ``grave threats'' facing the American economy.

Babcock & Brown Ltd. (BNB AU) jumped 25 cents, or 15 percent, to A$1.95, the benchmark's best performer. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week won the backing of billionaire investor Warren Buffett, raising optimism investment banks will be able to raise capital from investors.

GPT Group (GPT AU) gained 6 cents, or 3.1 percent, to A$2.03, the highest since the Sept. 22. The Australian real estate investment trust may be on the verge of selling Sydney's Four Points Hotel to Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, the Australian newspaper reported, citing sources it did not name.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

Japanese Stocks Decline as U.S. Financial Bailout Doubts Loom

By Patrick Rial

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese shares fell as credit markets tightened amid mounting concern Congress won't pass a bailout package for the U.S. financial system.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. fell 2.2 percent after lending rates between banks surged and U.S. lawmakers raised opposition to a $700 billion rescue plan. Re-plus Inc. was set to fall after becoming the 11th listed property-related company to go bankrupt in Japan this year, highlighting the funding difficulties afflicting real estate companies. Benchmarks also fell as many stocks lost the right to a dividend today.

Nissan Motor Co. led automakers lower after data showed export growth slowed last month as expansion in Asia wasn't able to offset weaker demand in the U.S. and Europe.

``There's not a lot of upside for this market today,'' Seiji Arai, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``The bankruptcy of Re-plus reignites unease about the credit markets.''

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 266.95, or 2.2 percent, to 11,848.08 as of 9:35 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index dropped 22.07, or 1.9 percent, to 1,145.90. All but one of the 33 industry groups in the Topix lost ground. Shares that lost the right to a dividend today had a 76 point negative effect on the Nikkei, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest bank, declined 2.1 percent to 910 yen. Orix Corp., the nation's largest leasing firm, fell 4.3 percent to 13,900 yen. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. lost 1.6 percent to 666,000 yen after the Nikkei newspaper said the nation's No. 3 listed bank won't take a stake in Goldman Sachs Group Inc., contradicting earlier reports.

Bush Speech

U.S. lawmakers are looking for alternatives to a plan by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to spend $700 billion to buy troubled assets of financial companies at prices above current valuations. Republican presidential candidate John McCain said Paulson's plan won't pass in its current form. President George W. Bush will speak at 10 a.m. Tokyo time regarding the rescue plan.

The one-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollars jumped 22 basis points to 3.43 percent, the highest since January as banks clamped down on lending to each other.

Condominium builder Re-plus filed for bankruptcy yesterday with 32.6 billion yen ($307 million) in debt. The company was unable to obtain financing due to the global credit crunch, it said in a statement. The shares were offered 600 yen lower at 7,570, with sell orders outnumbering those to buy.

Exports Slow

Joint Corp., another small property developer, plunged 6 percent to 266 yen. Atrium Co., which securitizes property, sank 9.1 percent to 518 yen after saying it made loans to Re-plus.

Nissan, which generates about two-thirds of its sales outside Japan, tumbled 5.6 percent to 758 yen. Toyota Motor Corp., the world's largest automaker by value, lost 2.9 percent to 4,670 yen. Takeuchi Manufacturing Co., a machinery maker that exports 90 percent of its products, dropped 5.4 percent to 1,496 yen.

Japanese exports grew 0.3 percent from a year earlier after rising 8 percent the previous month, the Finance Ministry said today. Economists had forecast a 2.3 percent increase.

Nippon Electric Glass Co., the world's third-biggest maker of glass for flat-panel televisions, gained 0.3 percent to 1,033 yen after boosting its earnings forecast for the six months ended Sept. 30, saying operating profit will likely climb 47 percent from the previous year.

Germany's Schott AG said yesterday it will make a tender offer for a 51 percent stake in Moritex Corp., a Japanese optical equipment maker. Schott is offering 740 yen per share, a 42 percent premium over yesterday's closing price. Moritex shares were poised to climb.

Nikkei futures expiring in December declined 2.1 percent to 11,870 in Osaka and slumped 1.6 percent to 11,880 in Singapore.

To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Asian Stocks Fall for Third Day; Carmakers, BHP Billiton Drop

By Chua Kong Ho

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for a third day, led by carmakers and commodity producers, on concern a U.S. plan to bail out banks won't be agreed soon enough to limit damage to the global economy.

Honda Motor Corp. dropped 3.8 percent after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the credit crisis has started to impair household and business spending in the U.S. and Japan's exports slowed more than estimated. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, slumped 3.3 percent after oil and copper dropped. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. lost 2.2 percent in Tokyo after lending rates between banks jumped.

``The U.S. bailout plan is moving slowly and markets will be in a limbo until there's better clarity,'' said Daphne Roth, Singapore-based head of equity research in Asia at ABN Amro Private Bank, with about $30 billion of Asian assets. ``Money markets are again frozen and everyone is rushing for safety. No one has the confidence to lend.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 1.5 percent to 114.52 as of 10:11 a.m. in Tokyo. All 10 industry groups retreated, with about four stocks falling for each one that advanced.

The gauge has declined 27 percent this year as a U.S. housing recession sparked a credit crisis, left global financial companies with more than $520 billion in writedowns and losses, and threatened to send the global economy into a recession.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 2.2 percent, the most in a week. South Korea's Kospi Index fell 1.6 percent after Hanjin Shipping Co. declined as rates for carrying commodities slumped to a seven-month low.

`Grave Threats'

The S&P 500 Index slipped 0.2 percent yesterday as Bernanke said the U.S. is facing ``grave threats'' to financial stability and fended off congressional criticism of the $700 billion rescue proposal. S&P futures were little changed today.

Notes climbed after U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the system is ``frozen to a large extent.'' The yield on the 10-year note fell 3 basis points to 3.79 percent as of 9:46 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data.

Honda, Japan's second-largest automaker, dropped 3.8 percent to 3,280 yen. Toyota Motor Corp., the largest Japanese automaker, slid 2.7 percent to 4,680 yen.

Japanese export growth slowed in August, led by car shipments as the worsening financial crisis cut demand. Exports grew 0.3 percent from a year earlier after rising 8 percent the previous month, the Finance Ministry said. The median estimate by economists in a Bloomberg News survey of economists was for a 2.3 percent increase.

To contact the reporter for this story: Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at kchua6@bloomberg.net;



Read more...