Economic Calendar

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Sell Aussie Dollar as China's Economy Weakens, RBC Capital Says

By Garfield Reynolds

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell the Australian dollar against the greenback as the currency is likely to extend this year's record declines because a weaker Chinese economy will sap demand for raw materials, RBC Capital Markets said.

The Aussie, as the currency is also known, may weaken below 60 U.S. cents, adding to its plunge from a 25-year high of 98.49 cents on July 16, RBC analysts said in a report. The Australian dollar touched a five-year low of 60.09 U.S. cents today and traded at 60.19 cents as of 9:17 a.m. in Sydney.

``The major driver of the Australian dollar's 31.3 percent decline over the past three months has been the collapse in resource commodity prices,'' Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney, wrote in the report.

Australia's currency is the worst-performer of the world's 16 most-active currencies against the dollar and yen in the past month as investors have dumped equities amid widespread concern that the global economy will fall into recession. Australia's 17-year economic boom has been fueled by raw materials sales, which account for 70 percent of the country's exports.

RBC recommends selling the Australian dollar when it trades at less than 63.36 cents, targeting a decline to 55 U.S. cents. They should exit the bet if the currency strengthens to 67.9 U.S. cents, RBC said.

China's economic growth may slow to 8 percent in the fourth quarter, after growing by a weaker-than expected 9 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, ``exerting further downward pressure on commodities prices,'' Trinh wrote.

Symmetrical Triangle

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials tumbled 28 percent this year as investors have fled commodities on concern a looming global recession may diminish demand for crude oil and for industrial metals such as copper, nickel and aluminum.

Financial turmoil and declining commodity prices have pushed down the Aussie to create what may be a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a decline to at least 57.07 cents is likely, RBC Capital said, citing technical analysis.

Goldman Sachs Inc. analysts said yesterday in a note that the Australian dollar's decline to 63.3 U.S. cents may indicate a drop to 47.75 cents in the longer term, also citing technical analysis.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Garfield Reynolds in Sydney at greynolds1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Oil Falls More Than $1 as Stocks Fall, Recession Concern Mounts

By Mark Shenk

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than $1 after U.S. stocks tumbled in the last half hour of trading, heightening concern that a recession will slash fuel consumption.

Energy prices also dropped as the dollar rose to the highest in more than 2 1/2 years against the euro, dimming the appeal of commodities as a hedge. OPEC may make an additional output cut if its Oct. 24 decision to lower production fails to bolster prices, said Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's representative to the group, according to the country's state-run Mehr news agency.

``Everyone is watching stock-market tickers and not OPEC,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``We want to see the full effect of the recession on demand, and until that happens prices will trend lower.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell $1.34, or 2.1 percent, to $61.88 a barrel at 9:05 a.m. Sydney time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which have tumbled 58 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 33 percent from a year ago.

Yesterday, futures dropped 93 cents, or 1.4 percent, to close at $63.22 a barrel, the lowest settlement price since May 29, 2007.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 27.85 points, or 3.2 percent, to 848.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 203.18, or 2.4 percent, to 8,175.77. The Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 46.13, or 3 percent, to 1,505.9. More than eight stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

`Downward Spiral'

``With all of the stock markets going down, there's going to continue to be downward pressure,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``There's not a lot that can be done to stop this downward spiral right now.''

Investors looking for protection against the dollar's decline earlier this year helped lead crude oil, gold, corn and gasoline to records. The euro fell as much as 2.3 percent yesterday to $1.2334, the weakest since April 2006, from $1.2623.

Oil is heading for a 39 percent drop this month, the steepest since at least 1988 in New York, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut oil production for the first time in almost two years. The 13 OPEC nations agreed to reduce supply by 1.5 million barrels a day starting in November.

The OPEC price basket, an average of 11 crude-oil grades sold by the group, dropped to $57.57 a barrel on Oct. 24, the lowest since March 21, 2007.

Further Cut

The decline in the basket price ``increases the likelihood that they will be forced to cut production again,'' said Addison Armstrong, director of market research for Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. ``They now have to worry about their economic health because a vast majority of their income comes from oil.''

Global oil demand may fall for the first time in 15 years in 2008 and stagnate next year, the Centre for Global Energy Studies said Oct. 20. OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Department all cut their forecasts for growth earlier this month.

The Energy Department will probably report tomorrow that U.S. supplies of crude oil, gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Brent crude oil for December settlement declined 64 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $61.41 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest since March 21, 2007.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Australia Stocks: Fortescue, Mirvac, Queensland Gas, Woodside

By Ian Sayson

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 42.90 points, or 1.1 percent, to 3,766.30 as of 11:47 a.m. local time, heading for its lowest close since Oct. 27, 2004. The S&P/ASX 200 Index futures contract due in December slipped 0.7 percent to 3,765. The All Ordinaries Index declined 42.10, or 1.1 percent, to 3,726.20.

The following is a list of companies whose shares are among the most active in Australian trading. Stocks symbols are in parentheses after company names.

Mining stocks: BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP AU), the world's largest mining company, climbed for the second day, adding 46 cents, or 1.9 percent, to A$25.06 after a measure of metal prices advanced the most in more than two years. Rio Tinto Group (RIO AU), the world's third biggest, climbed A$1.78, or 2.8 percent, to A$66.43.

A measure of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange gained 5.8 percent, with nickel surging 11 percent and copper advancing 6.6 percent. It's the measure's biggest advance since May 23, 2006.

Oil companies: Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WPL AU),Australia's second-biggest oil producer, lost 82 cents, or 2.2 percent, to A$36.08, heading for a five-day, 15 percent slump after the price of crude oil extended its decline to the lowest since May 2007. Santos Ltd. (STO AU), the third-biggest oil producer, sank 59 cents, or 5 percent, to A$11.16.

Crude oil for December delivery fell 1.5 percent to $63.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday as plunging global stock markets heightened concern that a recession will slash fuel consumption. The contract was 1.7 percent lower at $62.15 a barrel in after-hour trading as of 10:11 a.m. in Sydney, heading for its lowest close since May 10.

Austar United Communications Network Ltd. (AUN AU), the Australian pay-television company controlled by U.S. billionaire John Malone, rose 5 cents, or 5.6 percent, to 95 Australian cents, its first gain in five days. Austar said third-quarter sales grew 11 percent to A$160 million and that it's tracking a 20 percent expansion in its 2008 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

Billabong International Ltd. (BBG AU), the world's largest surfwear maker by market value, increased for the first time in five sessions, adding 6 cents, or 0.6 percent, to A$11.01. The company raised it annual earnings-per-share forecast to 12 percent and 16 percent, compared with the previous range of 4 percent and 8 percent, on expectation the slumping Australian dollar will increase the value of overseas sales.

Challenger Infrastructure Fund (CIF AU), which invests in a portfolio of global infrastructure and utility assets, fell 13 cents, or 5.7 percent, to $2.17. The fund was cut to ``underweight'' at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG AU), Australia's third- largest iron ore exporter, jumped 7 cents, or 2.5 percent, to A$2.87, its first gain in five sessions. The government told BHP and Rio that they must share their iron ore railroads in Australia with Fortescue.

Futuris Corp. (FCL AU), whose businesses range from forestry to rural and automotive services, decreased 8 cents, or 7.1 percent, to A$1.05, its most since Oct. 3, 2008. The company said it expects underlying full-year net profit to be at the lower end of the current range of market expectations because of costs for restructuring its Elders rural unit.

Lihir Gold Ltd. (LGL AU), the second-largest gold mining company on the Australian stock exchange, increased 7.5 cents, or 4.8 percent, to A$1.645. The company said third-quarter production grew 59 percent to a record after acquiring new mines.

Mirvac Group (MGR AU), an Australian real estate investment trust, tumbled 12 cents, or 7.9 percent, to A$1.34, heading for its lowest close since the stock began trading June 1999. The stock to ``underperform'' from ``neutral,'' by Merrill Lynch & Co., citing ``material refinancing risk.''

Queensland Gas Co. (QGC AU), which owns coal-seam gas fields in northeastern Australia, surged A$2.55, or 80 percent, to A$5.75 after BG Group Plc agreed to buy the rest of the company for A$5.75 a share in cash. AGL Energy Ltd. (AGK AU), Queensland's biggest shareholder and which agreed to sell its 22 percent stake, jumped 61 cents, or 4.6 percent, to A$14.01. Queensland climbed the most since it started trading August 2000 while AGL is on course for its biggest gain since Sept. 12.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ian C. Sayson in Manila at isayson@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Japan Stocks Fall a Fifth Day on Canon Target, MUFG Share Plan

By Masaki Kondo

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Japan stocks fell for a fifth day after Canon Inc. forecast an earnings drop and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. said it would sell shares to boost capital.

Canon Inc., the world's biggest digital-camera maker, slipped 4 percent after predicting its first profit drop in nine years. Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest listed bank, tumbled 9.3 percent on its plan to sell as much as 990 billion yen ($10.7 billion) in stock. Nippon Steel Corp. gained 5.5 percent, while smaller rival JFE Holdings Inc. added 5.3 percent.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 76.67, or 1.1 percent, to 7,086.23 as of 9:27 a.m. in Tokyo after rising as much as 1.4 percent. The broader Topix index fell 14.22, or 1.9 percent, to 732.24.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Asian Stocks Decline for Fifth Day; Mitsubishi UFJ Leads Drop

By Patrick Rial and Shiyin Chen

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for a fifth day, led by financial and technology companies, after Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. said it will sell new shares to raise capital and Canon Inc. slashed its profit forecast.

Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's No. 1 publicly traded bank, plunged 15 percent after saying it plans to raise as much as 990 billion yen ($10.7 billion). Canon lost 4.6 percent. Santos Ltd. and Inpex Holdings Inc. fell more than 4 percent each after oil futures slumped to the lowest since May 2007.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.8 percent to 73.81 as of 9:53 a.m. in Tokyo, extending a four-day, 19 percent slump. The measure was set for its lowest close since August 2003, following a 53 percent drop this year on concern the widening financial crisis and slowing economic growth will hurt company profits.

The index now trades at less than 1 times book value, compared with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's 1.6 times. S&P Futures rose 0.7 percent today.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 1.6 percent to 7,050.79, led by banks. South Korea's Kospi Index retreated 2.5 percent. KB Financial Group Inc., the holding company for the nation's largest bank, slumped after the country's consumer confidence fell.

All 10 industry groups fell on MSCI's Asian index apart from materials stocks. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, advanced 2.5 percent as copper and nickel surged more than 7 percent yesterday. The metals gained after sales of new houses in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in September, easing concern that a recession would damp housing demand.

Oil Prices

U.S. stocks fell yesterday, with the Standard & Poor's 500 extending its worst monthly decline since 1931. General Motors Corp. sank after Moody's Investors Service cut the largest U.S. carmaker's debt rating and the drop in oil prices dragged down energy companies.

Canon yesterday slashed its full-year net income target by a quarter, expecting profit to fall 23 percent from a year earlier as the stronger yen reduces the value of overseas sales. Canon and Sony Corp., which last week had cut its annual earnings target by 38 percent, forecast the dollar will average 100 yen.

A 1 yen gain against the dollar reduces Canon's annual operating profit by 9.9 billion yen ($106 million) and Sony's by 4 billion yen, the companies have said.

The yen fell today amid speculation Japan's central bank will sell its own currency for the first time since March 2004. The currency dropped to 92.93 against the dollar at 8:30 a.m. in Tokyo. It reached 90.93 on Oct. 24, the highest price since August 1995.

To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net; Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Cotton Futures Rise on Bets U.S. Farmers May Reduce Plantings

By Shruti Date Singh

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Cotton prices rose, rebounding from the lowest since February 2005, on speculation U.S. farmers may sow fewer acres with the fiber next year to plant more- profitable crops such as soybeans.

U.S. farmers planted 9.41 million acres with cotton this year, down 13 percent from 2007, to grow more soybeans as the oilseed rose to a record in July. Investors often buy and sell cotton together with soybeans, corn and wheat because the crops compete with each other for acres in the U.S., the largest exporter of the fiber. Soybeans rose 3.5 percent today.

``It's definitely spillover from the soybeans,'' said Jim Lambert, director of business development at Globecot in Nashville, a unit of FCStone Group Inc. ``Cotton is the most likely candidate to lose acreage.''

Cotton futures for December delivery rose 0.87 cent, or 1.9 percent, to 47.1 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Cotton also may be rising because investors and traders are buying futures to close bets that prices will fall further after the December contract touched a its lowest level today, said Mike Stevens, an analyst with Swiss Financial Services in Mandeville, Louisiana. The price earlier reached 45.35 cents, the lowest for the current December contract and the cheapest for a most-active contract since February 2005.

A close above 49.1 cents may signal that cotton has reached a bottom, Stevens said.

Concern that a global recession may reduce demand for products made from the fiber has pushed prices down recently, Lambert said.

U.S. Shipments

The U.S. will ship 13 million bales of the fiber this marketing year, the Department of Agriculture said on Oct. 10, less than the 14.5 million forecast last month and trailing the 13.65 million bales shipped a year earlier, because of a slowing world economy. A bale of cotton weighs 480 pounds (218 kilograms).

The growth rates of the U.S. economy, the world's largest, and China's, the largest cotton consumer, are expected to slow this year. Economists expect the U.S. economy will grow 1.6 percent this year, down from 2 percent in 2007, while 9.9 percent growth is projected in China, down from 11.9 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shruti Date Singh in Chicago at ssingh28@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Cocoa Heads for Biggest Monthly Drop in 5 Years as Dollar Gains

By Ron Day

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Cocoa fell for a ninth straight session, heading for its biggest monthly drop since 2003, as the dollar's surge increased the cost of commodities for overseas buyers.

The dollar rose against the U.K. pound for the seventh straight session as investors sought a haven from plunging emerging-market stocks and bonds. That increased the price of cocoa for buyers with pounds, the currency used to pay for the chocolate ingredient in West Africa, the world's biggest supplier.

``It's all about the dollar,'' said Hector Galvan, a market analyst for RJO Futures in Chicago.

Cocoa futures for December delivery fell $21, or 1.1 percent, to $1,956 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The price last week touched $1,867, the lowest for a most- active contract since Oct. 26, 2007.

Cocoa dropped 6.8 percent last week, and has tumbled 24 percent this month, putting it on a pace for the biggest monthly drop since May 2003.

The dollar surged as much as 4.1 percent against the pound, to the highest in more than six years, after a report on house prices added to evidence that Britain's economy faces a recession. The dollar has gained 27 percent against the pound this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 U.S. stocks fell as much as 2.8 percent today, finishing down 2.4 percent.

Some Gains

Commodities including copper and nickel rose, helping lift the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials. Crude oil, coffee and silver were among nine declining contracts in the index.

Speculation that farmers in Nigeria are halting their cocoa-bean harvesting in order to reduce supplies and boost prices is preventing a steeper slide in the price, RJO's Galvan said. Nigeria is the fourth-biggest producer, after Ivory Coast, Ghana and Indonesia, according to the Web site of the International Cocoa Organization.

Arrivals of cocoa shipments fell 16 percent last month, compared with a year earlier, in the Nigerian capital of Lagos, Reuters reported Oct. 24.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Day in New York at rday1@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Gold Futures Rise as U.S. Equities Erase Losses, Silver Slides

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose after U.S. equity indexes erased earlier declines, reducing the need to sell the precious metal to cover losses in other markets. Silver fell.

Gold fell 7.3 percent last week as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 6.8 percent. The metal touched $681 an ounce on Oct. 24, the lowest since Sept. 4, 2007, as share indexes plunged worldwide on concern that a global recession may damp demand for raw materials. The S&P fell as much as 2.4 percent today before rebounding to gain as much as 1.9 percent.

``As stocks rally, it eliminates some of the liquidation pressures that we've seen in gold,'' said Frank McGhee, the head dealer of Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago. ``People have been selling metals to fund losses in other markets.''

Gold futures for December delivery rose $12.60, or 1.7 percent, to $742.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Before today, gold dropped 29 percent from a record $1,033.90 on March 17.

Silver futures for December delivery declined 10 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $9.195 an ounce in New York. The price has fallen 38 percent this year.

Once investors stop selling assets to raise cash, or deleveraging ends, ``gold and silver will probably rise very sharply,'' said Jeff Christian, managing director of CPM Group in New York.

Gold may fare better than other commodities, analysts said. The metal is down 11 percent this year while the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials has fallen 27 percent, including a 33 percent decline in crude oil.

`Stronger Assets'

``Gold is one of the stronger assets amongst commodities,'' said Marty McNeill, a trader at R.F. Lafferty Inc. in New York. ``There's bargain-hunting at these low levels.''

Gold may find buyers at $675 and faces a sell-off at $750, John Reade, a UBS AG metals strategist, said in a note today.

``The selling pressure from deleveraging, disinvestment and the dollar may now be squaring off against safe-haven and jewelry demand,'' said Reade.

Still, a stronger dollar may hurt demand for the precious metal. The U.S. Dollar Index, the weighted basket that includes the euro and yen, rose as much as 1.6 percent today, before paring gains.

Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, dropped 1.2 percent to 747.1 metric tons last week from Oct. 17.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Copper Prices Rebound as U.S. New Home Sales Unexpectedly Climb

By Millie Munshi

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Copper jumped the most in two weeks after sales of new houses in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in September, easing concern that a recession would damp housing demand.

Home purchases rose 2.7 percent last month to an annual rate of 464,000, the Commerce Department said today. Economists had forecast sales would drop to 450,000 annually, according to the median of 59 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. Builders are the biggest users of copper pipes and wires.

``The home report definitely gave the market a little bit of a bump,'' said Michael Gross, an analyst at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida. ``People are looking for any type of positive news right now.''

Copper futures for December delivery rose 11.85 cents, or 7 percent, to $1.805 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the biggest gain for most- active contract since Oct. 13.

The metal also rose today as equities rebounded, Gross said. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose as much as 1.9 percent, after earlier dropping as much as 2.4 percent. Traders follow stocks as a gauge for the economic outlook.

Demand Concern

Earlier, the copper price touched $1.6265, the lowest for a most-active contract since Sept. 19, 2005, as concern mounted that demand would decline.

Copper has plunged 37 percent in October, heading for the sharpest monthly drop since 1988, when the metal started trading in New York. About $12.2 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities this month as $680 billion of writedowns and credit losses triggered a credit freeze.

``Nothing is escaping the fallout as `recession fears' have now become the reasoning for liquidation,'' Alex Heath, the London-based head of industrial metals trading at RBC Capital Markets, said today in a report. ``On the back of this scenario, it remains of little surprise that the base metals have continued to sink.''

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months rose $250, or 6.6 percent, to $4,020 a metric ton ($1.83 a pound).

To contact the reporter on this story: Millie Munshi in New York at mmunshi@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

Corn Rises as Farmers May Limit Crop Sales After 50% Price Drop

By Jeff Wilson

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Corn rose the most in a week, reversing an earlier drop to a one-year low, on speculation that a 50 percent plunge in prices will slow crop sales by farmers.

Cash corn prices in parts of the U.S. Midwest have fallen more than 50 percent from highs reached four months ago. Farmers who already got government subsidy checks can afford to hold off further crop sales, analysts said. Winds of as much as 55 miles an hour may have damaged some unharvested upper Midwest fields yesterday, according to QT Information Systems Inc. in Chicago.

``Farmers are not selling grain and that has firmed cash prices,'' said Christian Mayer, a market analyst for Northstar Commodity Investments LLC in Minneapolis. ``Livestock producers and ethanol makers are pushing bids up to get some supplies.''

Corn futures for December delivery rose 12.5 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $3.8525 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest gain since Oct. 20. Earlier, the price touched $3.64, the lowest since Oct. 25, 2007. The most-active contract has dropped 52 percent from a record $7.9925 on June 27.

About 29 percent of the corn crop was collected as of Oct. 19, up from 21 percent a week earlier and less than the 58 percent of a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last week. That figure will be updated later today.

Production will total 12.2 billion bushels, second only to last year's 13.1 billion-bushel harvest, the USDA said Oct 10.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at a record $52.1 billion in 2007, government figures show.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Fed Battles `Big-Time' Economic Erosion With New Cuts

By Rich Miller

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Less than three weeks after the Federal Reserve's emergency interest-rate reduction was, in the words of its vice chairman, ``overwhelmed'' by the collapse of financial markets, Ben S. Bernanke is about to try again.

The outlook has worsened since the Fed last acted on Oct. 8, and analysts now say the economy may shrink more than 2 percent in the final quarter of 2008, its steepest decline in at least 18 years. ``We're heading south big-time,'' says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor who is now senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington.

As a result, Fed Chairman Bernanke and his colleagues may eventually have to drive the benchmark overnight rate close to zero to resuscitate the economy. The next installment comes Oct. 29 when, says Gramley, ``the Fed is going to cut rates a half percentage point.''

That would reduce the central bank's target for the federal funds rate, which commercial banks charge each other for overnight loans, to 1 percent. The official rate hasn't been that low since 2004, and has never been lower since the Fed began trying to control it in the late 1980s. More cuts may follow if the economy doesn't recover.

Bernanke, 54, and his colleagues are carrying out what Vincent Reinhart, former Fed director of monetary affairs, calls a ``great monetary experiment'' in attacking the financial crisis -- and the credit crunch it spawned -- on three fronts: lower rates, increased liquidity and purchases of assets that banks and investors don't want.

A Worsening Economy

So far, they've had limited success in turning things around. In fact, the economy looks to be worsening and may shrink at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter, based on the median of forecasts from 11 top economists in the last two weeks. That would come after a likely 0.5 percent contraction in the third quarter and would be the biggest decline since the fourth quarter of 1990, when the economy shrank by 3 percent.

Fed policy makers are under no illusion about the difficulties they face as the credit squeeze swamps their efforts to aid the economy with looser monetary policy, including the half-point rate cut carried out in coordination with central banks in Europe and Canada Oct. 8.

Referring to that reduction, Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in a speech in New York a week later that ``the effects of the easier stance of policy on the cost and availability of credit were overwhelmed'' by a further erosion of financial markets.

ECB Cut `Possible'

The European Central Bank, too, may be forced to cut interest rates for the second time in less than a month as the financial crisis intensifies. ``I consider it possible that the Governing Council would decrease interest rates once again at its next meeting,'' on Nov. 6, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in a speech in Madrid today.

In an acknowledgement of the troubles the Fed is encountering, Bernanke last week supported another fiscal- stimulus package and suggested that lawmakers focus their effort on encouraging more lending through guarantees and other steps. The previous measure -- $168 billion mostly in tax rebates -- provided only a temporary boost in consumer spending.

`So Much Damage Done'

``There's been so much damage done,'' says Robert DiClemente, chief U.S. economist at Citigroup Global Markets in New York. ``That's not going to go away quickly.''

Some economists say they fear the crisis has already dealt such a blow to the finances and psyche of consumers and companies that output will collapse in the final months of the year. That's what happened in the second quarter of 1980, when the economy shrank at an annual rate of 7.8 percent after then-President Jimmy Carter instituted credit controls and urged Americans to cut their credit cards in half.

``The turmoil of the past six weeks has the potential to lead to the type of decline in lending that we had back in 1980,'' says Joseph Lavorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. He forecasts the economy will contract at a 4.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, though he sees it recovering next year.

Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, says the U.S. is in for a ``deep'' recession, with the economy shrinking 3.9 percent in the final three months of 2008.

Tough Times

``We are going to have some very tough times,'' Jack Welch, former chief executive officer of General Electric Co., said yesterday on the ABC News ``This Week'' television program. ``The fourth quarter of this year could have negative growth in the 3- to-4 percent range.''

Companies from aluminum maker Alcoa Inc. to Internet giant Google Inc. are reining in spending as the profit outlook dims. Chemical producer DuPont Co. and other exporters are seeing foreign sales slide as economic growth slows overseas. And builders such as Lennar Corp. are bracing for another reduction in their already shrunken market.

At the heart of Bernanke's inability to revive the economy is the credit crunch. Stung by some $430 billion in losses, U.S. banks have been reluctant to lend money -- even after the Fed's rate cuts and measures to inject liquidity.

To help counter that, Bernanke turned to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair for help. In a package rolled out on Oct. 14, they agreed to invest $250 billion of government money in the financial services industry and to back the banks with guarantees.

Libor Slides

Together with similar actions overseas, that has succeeded in making banks more comfortable with lending to each other again. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans in dollars slid to 3.52 percent Oct. 24 from 4.42 percent a week earlier.

That doesn't necessarily mean banks will increase lending to U.S. consumers and companies -- in spite of entreaties by Paulson that they do so.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the bank will be more prudent in extending credit. ``If you're not fearful, you're crazy,'' the head of the largest U.S. bank by market value told Wall Street analysts in an Oct. 15 teleconference.

Investors are also being stingy with their money amid fears the economic slump will push many companies into bankruptcy. The extra yield they're demanding over Treasury securities for so- called junk bonds -- those with ratings below investment grade -- stood at a record 16.69 percentage points on Oct. 24. That's almost double the 8.36 percentage-point spread at the start of September, based on Merrill Lynch & Co.'s U.S. High Yield Master II index.

Crunch `Still Here'

``The credit crunch is still here,'' says John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Capital Markets Group in New York. ``It may have eased a bit but not enough to assure a supply of credit to the private sector that is sufficient to finance a return to passable economic growth.''

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the U.S. risks suffering the same fate as Japan in the 1990s when that country's economy stagnated for a decade because of constricted credit.

There is ``some possibility of a very adverse outcome, perhaps similar to Japan's, in which policy initiatives do not work well, the turmoil is exacerbated and the entire economy is drawn into a protracted downturn,'' he said in an Oct. 14 speech.

To try to prevent that from happening, Bernanke may eventually have to cut interest rates to as low as zero percent, just as Japan did in 1999. In fact, then-Fed Governor Bernanke said in 2003 he wasn't opposed to such a move if it proved necessary to aid the economy.

``They're going to cut rates at this meeting,'' says Brian Sack, who worked with Bernanke at the Fed back then and is now deputy director with Macroeconomic Advisers in Washington. ``It's not clear that's going to be the last step.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Rich Miller in Washington rmiller28@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Stevens Convicted of Concealing $250,000 in Gifts

By Cary O'Reilly and Nadine Elsibai

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Senator Ted Stevens was convicted of all seven felony charges of failing to report gifts from a company in his home state of Alaska, a possibly fatal blow to the career of the Senate's longest-serving Republican.

Stevens, 84, was convicted in Washington of making false statements on his Senate financial disclosure forms. He was accused of hiding more than $250,000 in home renovations and other gifts from Veco Corp., an Alaska oil-services company, Bill Allen, the company's founder, and other friends.

``It's not over yet,'' Stevens told his wife Catherine as they left the courtroom. Later, he said in a statement he is innocent and will ``fight this unjust verdict with every ounce of energy I have.'' He said he is still seeking re-election Nov. 4.

``This is obviously the worst possible outcome, not only legally but politically, for Senator Stevens,'' said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington. Even so, she said, ``Remember, this is a guy whose poll numbers went up during the trial.''

Stevens, a member of the Senate since 1968, is the first sitting U.S. senator convicted of a felony since 1981, when the late New Jersey Democrat Harrison Williams Jr. was found guilty of bribery and conspiracy. The false-statement charges carry a maximum prison term of five years.

`Do What's Right'

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the Republican vice- presidential nominee, said in a statement it was a ``sad day'' for Alaska and for Stevens.

``The verdict shines a light on the corrupting influence of the big oil-service company that was allowed to control too much of our state,'' Palin said. ``I'm confident Senator Stevens will do what's right for the people of Alaska.''

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign of Nevada said in a statement he was disappointed to see Stevens's ``career end in disgrace.'' As a result of the jury's verdict ``he is properly being held accountable,'' Ensign said.

The Alaska Democratic Party called on the senator to resign immediately. ``He knew what he was doing was wrong, but he did it anyway and lied to Alaskans about it,'' a party statement said.

Stevens isn't required by law to give up his Senate seat. He can only be removed by a full Senate vote on a recommendation by its ethics committee. Such a process would likely take until next year and would move forward only if he is re-elected.

Speedy Trial

After being indicted on July 29 he sought a speedy trial in an effort to clear his name.

The Justice Department's investigation is continuing, Matthew Friedrich, acting assistant attorney general for the criminal division, said outside the courthouse after the verdict.

U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan delayed setting a sentencing date at the defense's request, and allowed Stevens to remain free without bail.

Stevens's conviction will likely boost Democratic chances of winning an Alaska Senate seat for the first time in almost three decades. He won the Republican primary in August with 63 percent of the vote after being indicted. He faces Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, in the general election. An Oct. 7 Rasmussen Reports poll had the two statistically tied.

The verdict ``should elect Begich,'' Marc Hellenthal, an Alaska pollster and political consultant, said in a phone interview from Anchorage after the verdict.

`Tremendous Resilience'

Hellenthal said Stevens has ``shown tremendous resilience'' after being charged. ``The fact that Stevens was indicted should have elected Begich, but there was a backlash and Stevens picked up some support. I don't expect that to happen now that he's been convicted.''

A legendary figure in Alaska politics, Stevens has steered billions of dollars to the state from his seat on the Senate Appropriations Committee.

The case stemmed from a federal investigation of political corruption in Alaska that began in 2004 and has resulted in eight convictions or guilty pleas. Allen, the prosecutors' star witness against Stevens, pleaded guilty last year to charges of bribery and conspiracy. Stevens wasn't charged with taking bribes.

Prosecutors presented evidence that between 2000 and 2006, Stevens received improvements to his home and other gifts, including a Viking gas grill, a power generator, an Alaskan sled dog and a custom-made glass window, without reporting them on his financial disclosure forms.

Prosecutors said Veco and Allen provided labor and materials to install a first floor, garage, outdoor deck and other improvements to Stevens's home in Girdwood, Alaska, which he called his ``chalet.''

Stevens's Testimony

Stevens, in three days on the witness stand, testified that his wife was in charge of the home renovations and paid all the bills they received. His defense lawyers said the couple spent $160,000 on the renovations and that Stevens believed his financial disclosures were accurate.

Stevens insisted he never accepted as gifts other items delivered to his homes in Alaska and Washington, D.C., including a $2,700 massage chair, the gas grill and a statue depicting migrating salmon. Stevens said they were either loans or he didn't want them at all.

``We have lots of things in our house that don't belong to us,'' Stevens said when a prosecutor asked him about the chair.

Defense lawyer Brendan Sullivan called Allen ``a paid witness'' and said prosecutors ``twisted'' the evidence.

Earlier in the trial, the judge denied multiple requests from Stevens's attorneys for a mistrial or dismissal of the case over claims the prosecution withheld evidence.

The case is U.S. v. Stevens, 08cr231, U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

To contact the reporters on this story: Cary O'Reilly in Washington at caryoreilly@bloomberg.net; Nadine Elsibai in Washington at nelsibai@bloomberg.net





Read more...

U.S. Should Enact $400 Billion Stimulus, Roubini Says

By John Brinsley

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government should enact an economic stimulus package of between $400 billion and $500 billion before the end of the Bush administration in January, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.

Roubini, who predicted the current financial crisis in 2006, said the economy risks falling into “a self-fulfilling animal spirit recession that is more severe than otherwise” because of the collapse of credit markets and weak consumer and corporate spending.

“The only way to increase aggregate demand is going to be through” government spending on roads, bridges and other infrastructure, Roubini said at a Bloomberg conference in New York. “We need a huge plan, $300 billion is not going to be enough. I think we’re going to need a plan of $400 billion to $500 billion.”

U.S. Treasury officials and other policy makers are grappling with financial turmoil that has pushed down the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by 42 percent this year, its worst annual retreat since 1931.

“If we don’t do that fiscal stimulus today, three months from now, six months from now the collapse of the real economy is going to be so severe that anything we’re doing today to recapitalize the financial system is going to be undone,” Roubini said.

Tax Rebates

President George W. Bush in February signed into law a $168 billion measure that sent tax rebates of as much as $600 to individuals and $1,200 to couples. Checks went to 111 million households beginning in May.

Government efforts to revive lending have made central banks around the world the “lender of first resort” while credit and other markets remain “extremely dysfunctional,” Roubini said.

“Financial markets are becoming totally unhinged,” he said. “Fundamentals don’t matter, valuation doesn’t matter the only thing that matters right now is flows, and the flows out there are sellers, and no buyers.”

Investors withdrew a record $43 billion from hedge funds last month, according to TrimTabs Investment Research in Sausalito, California. The Goldman Sachs VIP Basket of stocks with the most hedge fund ownership has lost 47 percent this year, more than eight of 10 industries in the S&P 500.

“We’re entering literally a vicious circle where economies are spinning down, financial markets are spinning lower, and the policy makers in my view -- and that’s my biggest fear -- have lost control of what’s going on in financial markets,” Roubini said.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Brinsley in Washington at jbrinsley@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Emerging-Market Stocks Drop to Four-Year Low on Growth Concerns

By Laura Cochrane and Fabio Alves

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks dropped to a four-year low as Ukraine and Hungary became the latest countries to receive help from the International Monetary Fund and concern deepened that the global economy will fall into a recession.

Equity indexes in the Philippines and Romania tumbled more than 6 percent, while Brazil, Colombia and other Latin American stock markets declined as commodity prices headed for their worst month in at least 38 years. Ukraine's hryvnia slid to a record low against the dollar, while Hungary's BUX Index lost as much as 11 percent as the IMF said it will lend Ukraine $16.5 billion and give Hungary ``a substantial financing package.''

Investors are selling emerging-market stocks, currencies and bonds as the rout that began with the collapse of U.S. subprime mortgages last year pushes the world toward a recession. The Bank of Korea cut interest rates by a record today as the nation faces its biggest crisis since requiring an IMF bailout a decade ago.

``In more normal times a package from the IMF would be enough,'' said Beat Siegenthaler, chief strategist for emerging markets at TD Securities Ltd. in London. ``But now we have the worst-case scenario of people pulling out of emerging markets and selling any holding that is not U.S. dollars.''

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 4.3 percent to 453.49 at 4:35 a.m. New York time, the lowest since September 2004. The gauge has lost 64 percent this year, the biggest retreat on record, dating back to 1988.

The slump has left the index valued at 6.8 times the profits of its 788 companies, the cheapest since 1998.

Hungary Stocks

Hungary's BUX Index slumped for a seventh straight day, losing 9.8 percent after a four-day holiday weekend. The IMF's deal with Hungary was reached in cooperation with the European Union and the 24-month Ukrainian loan is conditional on parliamentary approval of legislation to support the country's banks, the lender said yesterday.

The Washington-based fund last week agreed to lend Iceland $2.1 billion and is also in talks with Pakistan and Belarus.

``As long as people were investing in emerging markets, the economies could sustain higher imbalances,'' Siegenthaler said. ``Now that no one is investing any more, the countries have to cut their imbalances dramatically and just like any bank, they are now in need of a lender of last resort.''

The Philippine central bank is considering more measures to boost liquidity after the nation's PSEi Index fell 12 percent, its biggest one-day drop since January 1998, and the peso slid to a 22-month low. Trading in stocks was suspended for 15 minutes in Manila after the index dropped 10 percent.

``The risks associated with emerging markets are quite high,'' said Winson Fong, who helps oversee more than $3 billion at SG Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. ``Because of perceived risks, emerging markets like the Philippines will be affected severely by the fallout from the global credit crunch.''

Falling Yields

The extra yield investors demand to own developing nations' bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries fell 32 basis points to 8.33 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI+ Index.

Ukraine was the first nation in eastern Europe to receive IMF help in the crisis. Details of Hungary's agreement will be announced in coming days. Belarus last week asked the IMF for at least $2 billion after its banks lost access to financing.

Ukraine's hryvnia, which the central bank aims to keep within a trading band 8 percent either side of 4.95 per dollar, weakened as much as 4.9 percent to 6.1625 per dollar, a record low.

PetroChina Co., China's biggest oil producer, and Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, led declines in the MSCI Emerging Markets index.

The drop in oil, silver and gold pushed the Standard & Poor's GSCI Index of commodities 0.2 percent lower, bringing its loss in October to 35 percent, the worst monthly performance since at least 1970. Crude oil for December delivery fell 3 percent to $62.25 a barrel in New York.

PetroChina plunged 15 percent to HK$4.25, the lowest since January 2005. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index sank as much as 15 percent.

Petrobras sank 11 percent to 18.11 reais, pacing declines for Brazilian stocks. Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's biggest iron-ore producer, slid 8.2 percent to 20.24 reais.

The Bovespa index fell to the lowest in three years, dropping 6.5 percent. Elsewhere in Latin America, Colombia's IGBC index sank 3.2 percent, while Argentina's Merval slid 5.7 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Laura Cochrane in London at lcochrane3@bloomberg.net; Fabio Alves in New York at falves3@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Canadian Stocks Fall Most Since 1987, Led by Manulife, EnCana

By John Kipphoff

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian stocks fell the most in 21 years, led by finance and energy shares, on speculation the credit crisis will trigger investment losses at insurance companies and a recession cut global demand for commodities.

Manulife Financial Corp. dropped the most ever, leading a slide in finance shares on analyst reports that the global equity rout may force some insurers to raise capital. EnCana Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp. paced declines among oil and raw- materials producers as crude fell to a 17-month low.

The Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index slid 8.1 percent to 8,537.34 in Toronto, the most since a 11 percent plunge on ``Black Monday'' of Oct. 19, 1987. The S&P/TSX, which derives three-quarters of its value from resource and finance shares, has fallen 27 percent in October, poised for its biggest monthly decline since January 1919.

``Cash is king,'' said John Kinsey, who helps manage about C$1 billion for Caldwell Securities Ltd. in Toronto. ``There are too many question marks right now. It all depends on where the world economy goes. You don't want to stand in the path of an avalanche.''

A measure of finance stocks in the S&P/TSX fell 8.6 percent and a gauge of energy companies dropped 8.7 percent today, leading the drop as all 10 industries in the index slid. Raw- materials producers slipped 9.5 percent even as gold, copper and wheat rallied from declines.

Capital

Manulife fell 15 percent to C$21.17 for its steepest drop since demutualization in 1999. Canada's biggest insurer and rival Sun Life Financial Inc. may come under regulatory pressure to increase the amount of capital following stock market declines, RBC Capital Markets analyst Andre-Philippe Hardy wrote in a note. Manulife may need to add C$2 billion ($1.56 billion) in capital next quarter, and Sun Life, C$500 million, Hardy, based in Toronto, said. Sun Life slid 13 percent to C$26.29.

The MSCI World Index, a stock index of 23 developed nations, dropped 4.3 percent, extending its worst monthly drop on record.

More than $12 trillion has been erased from the market value of global equities this month after credit markets froze as financial institutions' writedowns and losses on investments related to U.S. mortgages topped $680 billion. In response, the world's biggest banks and securities firms have raised about $670.1 billion in capital.

Manulife was downgraded to ``market perform'' from ``outperform'' on Oct. 24 by BMO Capital Markets analyst John Reucassel, who estimated that the insurer might have to raise C$3 billion to C$5 billion in additional capital.

Royal, Scotiabank

Canadian banks, which have posted about C$11.6 of writedowns and losses on asset-backed investments in the past 12 months, also declined. Royal Bank of Canada, the country's biggest lender by assets, fell 8.6 percent to C$42.50. Bank of Nova Scotia, the third-largest, slipped 7.1 percent to C$36.32.

Oil futures fell 1.4 percent to $63.22 a barrel in New York, the lowest since May 2007. Crude have retreated more than 50 percent from a peak earlier this year, and prices of copper and wheat have plunged, sending the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities toward its largest annual decline on record.

Copper and aluminum prices will slide into a ``trough cycle'' in 2009 as a drop in consumption creates a surplus of metals used in homes, appliances and automobiles, Citigroup Inc. said, citing the prospect of a ``severe'' recession in many developed countries.

EnCana, the nation's biggest energy company, fell 8.4 percent to C$51.04. Talisman Energy Inc., the oil and natural- gas producer with about two-thirds of its reserves in North America or the North Sea, retreated 15 percent to C$9.44, the most in 24 years.

Pipeline

Suncor Energy Inc., the world's second-largest oil-sands producer, dropped 12 percent to C$23.18. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. slid 10 percent to C$46.55. TransCanada Corp., the nation's largest pipeline company, slid 8.7 percent to C$32.63, the most since 1999.

Barrick Gold, the world's biggest bullion mining company, dropped 13 percent to C$22.51. Goldcorp Inc., the second-largest producer by market value, decreased 15 percent to C$18.75. Teck Cominco Ltd., Canada's biggest diversified mining company, declined 17 percent to C$10.76.

BCE Inc., Canada's biggest phone company, fell 4.6 percent to C$33.90, the most since Sept. 29. Toronto-Dominion Bank, Citigroup and others banks funding a pension plan's C$51.7 billion takeover of BCE, will start marketing debt to investors this week, according to a note last week from RBC Capital Markets analyst Jonathan Allen.

BCE is trading 21 percent below the agreed takeover price of C$42.75-a-share cash, amid speculation that the banks may balk at financing the transaction if they're unable to sell on the loans because of credit market turmoil. Toronto-Dominion, Canada's second-biggest bank, slid 8.5 percent to C$52, the most in at least a quarter century.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Kipphoff in Toronto at jkipphoff@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

Allstate, Carter's, CF Industries, Nabors: U.S. Equity Preview

By Eric Martin

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes in U.S. markets tomorrow. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names, and prices are as of 6 p.m. in New York, unless stated otherwise.

Allstate Corp. (ALL US) fell 4.5 percent to $23.30. The largest publicly traded home and auto insurer in the U.S. was downgraded by Fitch Ratings after posting a third-quarter loss.

Carter's Inc. (CRI US) rose 3.1 percent to $18. The maker of baby clothes will replace Captaris Inc. in the Standard & Poor's Smallcap 600 Index, S&P said.

CF Industries Inc. (CF US) gained 25 cents to $45.50. The operator of North America's two biggest nitrogen-fertilizer plants said its board authorized the repurchase of as much as $500 million of the company's stock.

Home BancShares Inc. (HOMB US) rose 4 cents to $23.50. The company will replace Vital Signs Inc. in the S&P Smallcap 600 Index, S&P said.

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR US) dropped 10 percent to $11.10. The world's largest onshore oil and natural-gas driller announced the resignation of Bruce P. Koch, its chief financial officer.

Reinsurance Group of America Inc. (RGA/A US): The reinsurer majority-owned by MetLife Inc. will replace Apria Healthcare Group Inc. in the S&P Midcap 400 Index, S&P said. Reinsurance Group fell $1.66, or 4.8 percent, to $33.26 in regular trading.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

U.S. Stocks Retreat on Concern Economic Slump Is Worsening

By Lynn Thomasson

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled in the last half hour of trading after shifting between gains and losses all day, pulled lower by commodity producers as investors speculated a global recession will damp demand for fuel and metals.

Schlumberger Ltd., the biggest oilfield services contractor, slid 8.9 percent and Occidental Petroleum Corp. lost 7.9 percent as crude fell to the lowest since May 2007. U.S. Steel Corp. tumbled 11 percent after UBS AG advised selling the shares. General Motors Corp. sank 8.4 percent as the largest U.S. carmaker's debt rating was cut by Moody's Investors Service. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index extended its October retreat to 27 percent, its worst monthly decline since 1931.

``There's no doubt we're in a global economic slowdown,'' said Diane Garnick, who helps oversee $500 billion as an investment strategist at Invesco Ltd. in New York. ``People need to think about what level of risk is going to help them sleep at night.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 27.85 points, or 3.2 percent, to 848.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 203.18, or 2.4 percent, to 8,175.77. The Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 46.13, or 3 percent, to 1,505.9. More than eight stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

The S&P 500 swung between gains and losses at least 20 times as Huntington Bancshares Inc. led a rally in regional banks that accepted $34 billion in government cash. The benchmark index for U.S. equities is down 42 percent in 2008. More than 1.3 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE, 8 percent below the average volume for the last three months.

`Distressed Sellers'

The drop followed declines overseas that sent France's benchmark index down 4 percent and Hong Kong's down 13 percent.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, a gauge of how much investors are paying for insurance against S&P 500 declines, climbed 1.2 percent to 80.06, a second straight closing record.

``There are still distressed sellers who want to get out on any strength,'' said Jeffrey Davis, chief investment officer at Lee Munder Capital Group in Boston, which manages $4.3 billion.

Schlumberger retreated $4.24 to $43.28. Occidental Petroleum lost $3.61 to $42.08. Crude declined 1.4 percent to close at $63.22 a barrel in New York, then slid to $62.46 in extended electronic trading. Gasoline, natural gas and heating oil also declined.

U.S. Steel tumbled $3.86 to $30.82. The second-largest producer of the metal was cut to ``sell'' from ``buy'' at UBS analysts, who said they are ``increasingly cautious'' on earnings as conditions in the U.S. worsen.

GM Slumps

General Motors sank 50 cents to $5.45. Moody's lowered the company's credit rating to Caa2, eight grades below investment quality. GM may run out of money by mid-2009 without a cash infusion via a federal loan, a capital-infusing merger combined with cost cuts, or the sale or securitization of part of the company, Moody's said.

Loews Corp. had the biggest drop in at least 28 years, falling 18 percent to $25.65. The holding company run by New York's Tisch family had to inject $1.25 billion into insurance unit CNA Financial Corp. after it posted a third-quarter loss on investment declines and hurricane claims. CNA, which is 90- percent owned by Loews, suspended its dividend for common shares today after a loss of $331 million in the period ended Sept. 30. CNA plunged 33 percent to $11.90.

`Real Story'

Regional banks in the S&P 500 climbed 1.6 percent as a group after the Treasury rolled out the second half of its $250 package to shore up lenders.

Huntington Bancshares increased 15 percent to $9.17. First Horizon National Corp., Tennessee's biggest bank, surged 11 percent to $9.58. Fifth Third Bancorp increased 5 percent to $8.47.

``The real story this week is going to be the implementation of these credit-easing measures,'' Marshall Front, who oversees $700 million as chairman of Front Barnett Associates in Chicago, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Verizon Communications Inc. had the biggest advance since 2000, surging 10 percent to $27.61, after third-quarter profit rose 31 percent on an increase in subscribers and sales of more expensive services. Sales climbed 4.1 percent to $24.8 billion, topping the average analyst estimate, based on Bloomberg data.

Earnings Watch

Humana Inc. plunged the most since March, losing 15 percent to $30.80. The second-biggest provider of U.S.-funded health insurance reported a 39 percent decrease in quarterly profit on rising costs in its drug plans for the elderly and investments in financial companies.

The companies in the S&P 500 that reported third-quarter earnings so far posted a 23 percent decline on average, according to Bloomberg data. A profit drop for the entire index would mark the fifth straight quarterly decline, the longest stretch since the burst of the dot-com bubble at the start of this decade.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, slipped 3.4 percent to $49.67. Chief Executive Officer H. Lee Scott said customers are being ``more cautious and more thoughtful about what they buy'' because of the U.S. economic slump.

U.S. gross domestic product probably contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate from July to September, the biggest drop since the 2001 recession, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures on Oct. 30. Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, probably dropped by the most in almost two decades as job losses mounted, stock prices sank and property values plummeted.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 28 percent chance the Fed will lower its target for overnight bank loans, now 1.5 percent, by 75 basis points. That's up from no chance a week ago. Odds for a half-point cut are 72 percent.

Fed Watch

European stocks fell for the fifth straight day, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropping 1.9 percent. Asian stocks slumped for a fourth day.

In the first signs of a bank run in the Persian Gulf, customers rushed to withdraw money from Gulf Bank KSC, Kuwait's second-biggest bank, after clients defaulted on currency contracts and the central bank was forced to guarantee deposits.

All 48 of the developed and emerging markets tracked by MSCI have fallen in 2008, with 22 losing at least half their value as of last week. Benchmark indexes for Russia, China, Greece, Ireland, Peru and Austria have retreated more than 60 percent and the S&P 500 is down 40 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Brazil's Bovespa Drops Below 30,000 for First Time in 3 Years

By Alexander Ragir and William Freebairn

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's Bovespa stock index fell below 30,000 for the first time in three years on concern tighter credit markets and the worst month for commodity prices in at least 38 years will hurt earnings growth.

All America Latina Logistica, the railroad operator that transports agricultural commodities, led the drop on the Bovespa index on speculation slowing demand for raw materials may cut profits. Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA, Brazil's second- biggest steelmaker, retreated for a fifth day as commodity prices extended declines on concern the global economic slowdown is deepening. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the state-controlled oil company, lost 9.3 percent as crude futures plunged.

``The scarcity of credit and less demand for commodities will have to slow the economy,'' said Felipe Taylor, an equity portfolio manager at Rio de Janeiro-based Ciano Investimentos Gestao, the $142 million hedge fund run by former central bank chief economist Ilan Goldfajn.

The Bovespa index dropped 6.5 percent to 29,435.11, the lowest level since October 28, 2005. It plunged 14 percent last week. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 4.3 percent. Mexico's Bolsa index slipped 0.5 percent.

In Brazil, the fastest economic expansion in more than a decade may end as commodity prices, the local currency and stocks plunge. JPMorgan Chase & Co and Banco BNP Paribas Brasil SA cut their growth forecast for Latin America's biggest economy to less than 3 percent in 2009, which would be the slowest since 2003.

ALL Declines

ALL led a decline in transportation stocks, falling 16 percent to 6.49 reais. The stock has lost 54 percent over the past five days as commodity prices plunged on concern the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression may send the world into a recession and lower demand for raw materials.

``With less demand for commodities these companies will transport less,'' said Januario Hostin Junior, who helps manage the equivalent of about $35 million at Leme Investimentos in Florianopolis, Brazil. ``They also are growth companies that need a lot of capital to grow, which is tougher to come by as credit markets tighten.''

Usiminas, as the steelmaker is known, dropped 4.8 percent to 22.75 reais. Latin American steelmakers are slowing output as the global financial crisis worsens, said Roberto De Andraca, chairman of the Latin American Steel and Iron Institute.

Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's biggest iron ore miner, declined 8.2 percent to 20.24 reais. Copper demand in China, the world's biggest consumer, may grow at 5 percent this year, half the previous forecast, as the deepening global financial crisis curbs exports, said Duan Shaofu, copper division chief at the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association.

Brazil Exports

The Standard & Poor's GSCI index of 24 raw materials lost 0.2 percent, extending its retreat this month to 32 percent, the most since at least 1970. Commodities account for two-thirds of Brazilian exports, according to the Brazilian Exporters Association in Rio de Janeiro. About half of the Bovespa is made up of raw-material producers.

Petrobras dropped 11 percent to 18.11 reais. Crude oil for December delivery touched $61.30, the lowest since May 9, 2007.

Elsewhere in Latin America, Argentina's Merval dropped 5.7 percent, Peru's Lima General fell 5.3 percent and Colombia's IGBC slid 3.2 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio de Janeiro at aragir@bloomberg.net; William Freebairn in Mexico City at wfreebairn@bloomberg.net.





Read more...