Economic Calendar

Monday, February 2, 2009

Japan’s Economy Is Killing Far Too Many Japanese: William Pesek

Commentary by William Pesek

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Ask a group of expatriates in Tokyo which foreign word is used most in Japanese and many will guess “beer,” “ciao” or “OK.”

Not even close. The answer, according to Japan’s cultural affairs agency, is “stress.” Some 98.5 percent of Japanese responding to an August survey, had seen, heard or used the word commonly pronounced “sutoresu” in their native language.

It takes but a split second to realize the logic in this being Japan’s most identified loanword. This is, after all, the home of “karoshi,” or death from overwork. Japan also is a place that consistently logs more than 30,000 suicides a year, many of which are tied to economic worries.

The concept of dying from working too many hours wasn’t invented in Japan, yet its workaholic ways result in a shockingly high incidence for a developed nation. While reliable data are hard to collate, lawyers estimate there are at least 10,000 work- related deaths each year.

That number might skyrocket as the global credit crisis visits Asia’s biggest economy.

“Karoshi will likely pick up again,” says Martin Schulz, a senior economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo.

Japan’s outlook is worsening by the day. Factory output fell a record 9.6 percent in December. Unemployment had its biggest jump in 41 years and household spending slid 4.6 percent, a 10th month of declines. NEC Corp., Japan’s largest personal-computer maker, is cutting more than 20,000 jobs. The risk of a deep, multiyear recession is growing.

It’s Different

Yet this contraction is different. Schulz says efforts to dismantle Japan’s lifetime employment system have left a third of the workforce with flexible contracts. That means corporations have a tool that they didn’t have a decade ago to adjust to the recession: firing workers.

Japanese firms have moved with unprecedented speed to do just that, starting with the growing ranks of temporary staffers. Fast- rising joblessness in an economy unaccustomed to it means greater stress for more than just those out of work.

“It is worrying to see firms cut temporary workers, ostensibly expecting existing full-time staff to cover the shortage,” says Naomi Fink, Japan strategist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

Stressed Workers

There’s a national karoshi hotline, a self-help book to guide the overworked and a law that compensates families of victims, who are almost always men. Japan had the highest rate of employees suffering work-related health problems in a recent study by Kelly Services.

The Troy, Michigan-based recruitment firm questioned 115,000 people in 33 countries. The survey found that as many as three in five Japanese claimed they had been ill or felt unhealthy because of workplace conditions. That was markedly higher than the global average of 19 percent.

A political vacuum in Tokyo isn’t inspiring great confidence that things will improve. Prime Minister Taro Aso’s approval ratings are below 20 percent, and Japan’s main opposition party’s economic ideas are underwhelming, at best. And Japanese know things are bad when even the vaunted Toyota Motor Corp. is forecasting its first loss in 71 years.

The automaker also has been the subject of some unflattering headlines. In November, for example, a court in central Japan ruled in favor of the wife of a 30-year-old Toyota employee alleged to have died from overwork. The government was ordered to pay compensation.

Fabled Salaryman

Karoshi cases are difficult to prove and often go unreported. Business organizations such as Keidanren are calling on companies to offer more flexible schedules to reduce overwork and increase the national birthrate. Corporate executives and the government need to do more to drag Japan’s fabled salaryman from his desk.

This issue isn’t likely to receive the attention it deserves. Aso’s Liberal Democratic Party is preoccupied with staying in power. More energy needs to go into reducing the burden on workers who clock some of the longest hours in the developed world. Much of the overtime worked goes unreported. Vacation days often go untaken.

The key, Fink says, is to increase the productivity of Japan’s workforce. That’s easier said than done. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says labor productivity per hour worked in Japan is 30 percent the U.S. level.

Killer Year

“If employers lay off to cut costs without raising productivity, karoshi might become an issue,” Fink says.

One also can’t rule out even higher suicide rates, not only in Japan, but also in South Korea and Hong Kong. Psychiatrist Shu- sen Chang of the U.K.’s University of Bristol says the current turmoil in markets risks creating a new wave of suicides, particularly among working-age men.

A Japanese hotline for people considering suicide is stretched to the limit, with the economic crisis thought to be worsening the problem, its director, Yukio Saito, told the Daily Telegraph this month. Even before Japan’s recession deepened in December, Telephone Lifeline was handling 700,000 calls a year.

It’s clear that Japan needs to end its candle-burning corporate culture. It’s less clear how to achieve a better work- life balance as the economy is plunging.

For Japan’s economy, the year ahead could be a killer -- in more ways than one.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net





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Billionaire Firtash Proposes Gas Group for Russia, Ukraine, EU

By Halia Pavliva and Daryna Krasnolutska

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Ukraine should set up a joint venture with Russia’s OAO Gazprom and European companies including E.ON AG and GDF Suez SA to guarantee gas supplies after last month’s dispute, according to Ukrainian billionaire Dmitry Firtash.

Russian, Ukrainian and European investors would each own one third of the company, Firtash said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Jan. 31 in Kiev. He controls 45 percent of Swiss- registered RosUkrEnergo AG, the sole importer of gas to Ukraine since 2006, while his business partner has 5 percent and Gazprom 50 percent.

Gas supplies from Russia via Ukraine to Europe halted for almost two weeks last month amid a spat over prices and transit fees. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said under an accord signed by the two governments on Jan. 19, that middlemen in the trade will be eliminated.

“I am convinced that such a consortium should be set up,” Firtash said. “Taking into account that Russian gas goes to Europe, companies such as Germany’s E.ON, Gaz de France and Wingas should be interested.”

Under Firtash’s proposal, Ukraine’s contribution to the venture would be its pipelines, which transport one quarter of the European Union’s annual gas consumption, and which he said may be worth about $20 billion. He said Gazprom should pledge gas fields producing 50 billion cubic meters a year over 25 years, while European companies should invest cash.

Gas Assets

Sergei Kupriyanov, a spokesman for Gazprom, could not be reached for immediate comment when called on his mobile phone outside office hours yesterday. E.ON spokesman Jens Schreiber said he couldn’t comment on its Ruhrgas unit, while Ruhrgas spokesman Helmut Roloff didn’t respond to a message left on his cell phone. GDF Suez spokeswoman Armelle Dillar declined to comment.

Firtash, 43, has a net worth estimated at $3.8 billion, according to Polish magazine Wprost, and has businesses mainly in energy, chemicals and pipeline construction. He consolidated his assets in holding company Group Dmitry Firtash, or GDF, in June 2007.

He made his fortune over the past 15 years, moving to Moscow in the early 1990s and securing his first gas deal with Turkmenistan in 1993 in exchange for food supplies. RosUkrEnergo was set up in 2004 by “top Russian and Ukrainian politicians” to import Central Asian gas into Ukraine, according to its Web site, and has been Ukraine’s monopoly gas supplier since 2006.

Gas Flows

Normal gas flows to parts of Eastern Europe still have not been restored in full since early January, following the disruption which caused shortages in 20 EU countries.

Timoshenko said Ukraine purchased 11 billion cubic meters of gas, which belonged to RosUkrEnergo and is in Ukrainian storage facilities, for $153.90 per 1,000 cubic meters following the accord with Russia. Firtash is challenging that, saying RosUkrEnergo made no sale to the government and the gas is contracted for delivery to Poland, Romania and Hungary.

Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA, Poland’s gas monopoly, has reported receiving only 76 percent of volumes ordered from Russia and other former Soviet countries because of the dispute.

Second Dispute

RosUkrEnergo has filed lawsuits in courts in Switzerland and Sweden claiming the gas back, according to Firtash, and is seeking several hundred million dollars in compensation. In the meantime, it expects to restore full supplies to its consumers in Eastern Europe “within the next two to three weeks,” and is in talks to borrow gas from Gazprom, he said.

“Our gas would allow Timoshenko’s government to reduce prices for Ukraine’s domestic consumption by about $40 per 1,000 cubic meters, to average between $240 and $250 per 1,000 cubic meters this year,” Firtash said. “Ukraine is unable to pay that high price.”

Naftogaz spokesmen Valentyn Zemlyanskyi and Ilya Savvin could not immediately be reached on their mobile phones outside business hours yesterday.

The third investor in RosUkrEnergo, alongside Gazprom and Firtash, is Ivan Fursin, a long-time business partner of Firtash, who controls 5 percent of the trading company.

Gas Partnership

Ukraine depends on imported fuel for 70 percent of its needs, and last month’s dispute with Russia was the second in three years. In January 2006 Gazprom’s gas shipments to Ukraine were cut for three days, leading to shortages in EU countries, including Hungary and Austria.

Firtash’s proposal for a joint venture involving European companies echoes an idea which was under discussion during the last month’s dispute.

Putin met representatives of GDF Suez, E.ON Ruhrgas AG and Eni SpA in Berlin on Jan. 16 to persuade them to form a group that would buy gas needed to permit Ukraine’s pipeline system to operate.

Eni at that time backed Putin’s initiative, which was designed to meet short-term conditions demanded by Naftogaz and Gazprom to complete bilateral accords. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said E.ON Ruhrgas, BASF SE’s Wingas and GDF Suez were also backing the idea of a gas partnership, while E.ON Ruhrgas, Germany’s biggest gas provider, said more talks were needed.

Chemical Companies

The conclusion of an accord signed between Russia and Ukraine three days later made an interim solution unnecessary.

Firtash, whose comments this weekend revive the idea in a longer-term form, also owns companies including Hungarian gas trader Emfesz Kft, Vienna-registered Zangas Hoch-und Tiefbau GmbH, which repairs and builds pipelines, and OSTCHEM Holding AG, which controls chemical companies, according to GDF’s Web site. He additionally has real estate assets.

Firtash said Nov. 7 he plans also to acquire a majority stake in VAT Bank Nadra, Ukraine’s seventh-biggest bank by assets, to diversify and expand his business.

Firtash was born in the village of Bohdanivka, in western Ukraine, the only child of a driving instructor and an accountant at a local sugar beet processing plant. He graduated from Donetsk technical school in 1984, served in the army and then worked as a fireman in Chernivtsi before moving to Moscow and sealing his first gas deal.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev at dkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.netHalia Pavliva in Kiev via New York newsroom at Or hpavliva@bloomberg.net





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Crude Oil Rises on OPEC Output Concern, U.S. Stimulus Program

By Gavin Evans

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose a second day in New York on speculation output cuts and government stimulus plans will slow rising oil and fuel stockpiles.

Venezuela, the sixth-largest producer in OPEC, would support further output cuts by the group to prevent a glut in an already over-supplied market, Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said yesterday. The U.S. economy, the world’s largest oil user, is “in for a tough several months” before a recovery takes hold, President Barack Obama told NBC yesterday.

“It’s all about expectations,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. “There is some expectation that the Obama stimulus package will kick-start things in the U.S., and that will help the global economy.”

Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 63 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $42.31 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $41.94 at 8:52 a.m. in Singapore.

The contract gained 0.6 percent to $41.68 on Jan. 30 as the threat of refinery strikes in the U.S. helped push gasoline futures to an 11-week high and the Commerce Department reported a smaller-than-expected contraction in the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter.

Brent crude oil for March settlement rose 32 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $46.20 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. It gained 1.1 percent to $45.88 a barrel on Jan. 30.

New York futures fell 10 percent last week and are down 72 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel reached July 11. Prices reached $32.40 on Dec. 19, a four-year low for the front-month contract.

OPEC Cuts

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries accounts for about 40 percent of global oil supplies and last month agreed to reduce output by 2.46 million barrels a day, or 9 percent, starting Jan. 1 to stem the slide in prices.

Members are complying “100 percent” with the new quota which is starting to bring stability to the market, Ramirez told reporters in Caracas. Still, demand has continued to contract since the new ceiling was set and Venezuela would support any additional output cuts sought, he said.

Gasoline for March delivery was barely changed at $1.2690 a gallon on Nymex after earlier falling as much as 0.12 cent. It gained 2 percent to $1.2687 on Jan. 30.

Talks to prevent a strike at 86 U.S. refineries were extended by 24 hours yesterday after unions reported “sufficient progress” to continue negotiations.

Heating oil for March delivery fell 1 percent to $1.44 a gallon. The contract rose 1.8 percent on Jan. 30.

Cold temperatures mid-week will push New York heating demand 8 percent above average this week, Meteorlogix LLC said in a forecast yesterday.

The global slump has overshadowed the usual seasonal demand influence of the northern hemisphere winter, Commodity Warrants’ Hassall said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net





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Korea Won Declines for a Third Day on Record Drop in Exports

By Kim Kyoungwha

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won dropped for a third day against the dollar as the government reported a record plunge in exports for January, foreshadowing a deepening slump in Asia’s export-driven economies.

The Korean currency shed 8.8 percent last month, its worst start to a year since at least 1991, on speculation tighter global credit markets and falling overseas sales will curb the supply of dollars needed to meet payments on imports and foreign debt. Exports last month slumped 32.8 percent from a year earlier, the most since figures were first compiled in 1957, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said today.

“The deterioration in exports is far beyond what the markets had expected,” said Oh Suk Tae, an economist with Citigroup Inc in Seoul. “The won remains under the pressure unless exports show a recovery.”

The won fell 0.9 percent to 1,392.10 per dollar as of 10:15 a.m. in Seoul, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. It reached 1,399.10 on Jan. 28, the lowest in seven weeks.

Sliding overseas sales are helping drag South Korea’s economy into what would be its first recession since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Industrial production plunged by a record 18.6 percent in December as Hyundai Motor Co., Hynix Semiconductor Inc. and LG Display Co. reduced output to cope with sagging demand.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net.





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Yen Rises a Third Day on Speculation Global Slowdown Worsening

By Ron Harui and Stanley White

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose for a third day against the dollar and the euro before a U.S. report that economists estimate will show manufacturing fell to the lowest level since 1980, adding to signs a global slowdown is worsening.

The yen also advanced for a third day versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars on speculation Japanese companies will bring home their overseas earnings before the fiscal year ends next month. The euro slid to the weakest in almost two months versus the greenback and the British pound fell the most in 10 days on concern policy makers in the 16-nation region and the U.K. will cut interest rates as economic growth stalls.

“The yen is likely to be the strongest currency for some time,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “There isn’t much that’s positive about the economic outlook. Investor flows back into the yen are likely to pick up pace.”

The yen advanced to 89.80 per dollar as of 10:07 a.m. in Tokyo from 89.92 late in New York on Jan. 30. Against the euro, Japan’s currency gained to 114.43 from 115.23. The euro fell to $1.2742 from $1.2813. The pound declined 0.8 percent to $1.4424 from $1.4540. The yen may appreciate to 89.15 versus the dollar and the euro may weaken to $1.2675 today, Soma said.

Against the yen, Australia’s dollar fell 0.5 percent to 57.03, New Zealand’s dollar declined 0.5 percent to 45.61 from late in New York on Jan. 30. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares slid 1.5 percent and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 1.9 percent.

Bets on Yen

Futures traders increased bets the yen will strengthen against the dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the yen compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 49,007 on Jan. 27, compared with net longs of 47,090 a week earlier.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index, due today, fell to 32.5 in January from a revised reading of 32.9 the prior month, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

The yen also strengthened versus all of the 16 most-active currencies today on speculation Japanese investors will bring home cash to settle accounts before the nation’s fiscal year-end on March 31.

The VIX volatility index, a Chicago Board Options Exchange gauge reflecting expectations for stock-market price changes that is used as a measure of risk aversion, gained for a second day, rising 5.2 percent to 44.84 on Jan. 30.

‘Repatriate Capital’

“Japanese investors tend to repatriate capital during periods of heightened risk aversion,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “The yen could retest the record high of 55 against Australia’s dollar this week.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point to 3.25 percent at a meeting tomorrow, the lowest level since 1964, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The pound fell against the dollar for the first time in more than a week on speculation the Bank of England will trim borrowing costs to combat a recession.

The U.K. central bank will lower rates by half a percentage point to 1 percent when it announces a policy decision on Feb. 5, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.

Home Prices

Luxury home prices in London fell 3.7 percent from a month earlier, the second-biggest decline on record, Knight Frank LLP said in an e-mailed statement Jan. 31. In the past 12 months, prices have slumped 21 percent, the biggest annualized drop recorded by the property consultancy, as a housing slump rippled through the economy.

“Traders are looking for the chance to sell the pound,” said Saburo Matsumoto, senior manager in Tokyo of foreign- exchange sales at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co., Japan’s fifth- largest bank by market value. “There’s no denying that U.K. rates are headed lower.”

Sterling may decline to $1.40 in the next few days, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net; Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net.





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Australian, New Zealand Dollars Slip Ahead of Central Bank Meet

By Candice Zachariahs

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar fell to the lowest in two months on expectations among economists that the central bank will cut interest rates to the lowest since at least 1964 and after stocks closed lower in the U.S. last week.

New Zealand’s currency traded at its weakest in six years after U.S. stocks fell for a fourth straight week, capping the market’s worst January retreat. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to cut its benchmark rate 1 percentage point to 3.25 percent, the cheapest benchmark rate since 1964, according to the median forecast of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“There will be a very close focus on the size of the cut and also whether there’s any hint in the statement of how low the central bank is likely to go,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “We are going to start the week on a negative tone and the RBA may reinforce that with a 100 basis point cut.”

Australia’s currency slid 0.4 percent to 63.51 U.S. cents as of 8:22 a.m. in Sydney from 63.76 cents late last week in New York. The currency traded as low as 63.42 cents, the lowest since Dec. 2. It fell 0.3 percent to 57.18 yen.

New Zealand’s dollar declined 0.3 percent to 50.77 U.S. cents from 50.92 in New York. It bought 45.68 yen from 45.72.

Benchmark interest rates are 4.25 percent in Australia and 3.5 percent in New Zealand, compared with 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero percent in the U.S., attracting investors to the South Pacific nations’ higher-yielding assets. The risk in such trades is that currency market moves will erase profits.

Data this week

Declines in the Australian dollar may be limited as retail sales probably grew 0.3 percent in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 12 economists. The Bureau of Statistics will release the report at 11:30 a.m. on Feb. 4.

The currency may trade down to 62.90 U.S. cents before getting a “bounce” mid-week as retail sales data shows “the Australian economy finishing the year with a bit of resilience in huge contrast to what we’ve seen in the rest of the world,” Callow said.

Futures traders decreased their bets that the Australian dollar will decline against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a fall in the Australian dollar compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- was 3,415 on Jan. 27, compared with net shorts of 6,115 a week earlier.

Reports this week in the U.S. are expected to show the jobless rate probably jumped in January to the highest level in 16 years, while the manufacturing and service industries fell further.

Unemployment climbed to 7.5 percent, and payrolls fell by 530,000, the 13th consecutive decrease, according to a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Labor Department figures Feb. 6. Other reports may show manufacturing, services and housing shrank further, signaling more firings ahead.

To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net





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N.Z. Dollar May Slide 20% to Record Low on Rate Cuts, RBC Says

By Candice Zachariahs

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar may plunge more than 20 percent to a record low as the central bank cuts interest rates and the global slowdown saps investor appetite for riskier assets, RBC Capital Markets said.

The currency may weaken to an all-time low of 38.98 cents in coming months, said Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, a unit of Royal Bank of Canada. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard lowered the official cash rate to 3.5 percent last week, the lowest ever, and said there is room for further reductions to steer the economy out of a deepening recession.

“A move to all-time lows of 38.98 cents in coming months can no longer be ruled out,” Sydney-based Trinh said, confirming the contents of a research note today. “The New Zealand dollar is most vulnerable to dwindling appetite from offshore investors and the risk of persistent capital outflow in the coming year will likely see our 43-cent target by mid-2009 achieved earlier.”

New Zealand’s dollar fell 0.1 percent to 50.85 U.S. cents as of 1:10 p.m. in Wellington, from late in New York last week. The currency traded at 39 cents in October 2000, the lowest since at least 1971, according to Bloomberg News records.

The central bank’s 4.75 percentage points of rate cuts since July has lowered the extra yield offered by the nation’s three-year bonds over similar-maturity Japanese debt to 2.85 percent last week, the narrowest since 1994.

The currency will extend January’s 12 percent loss against the U.S. currency as NZ$15 billion ($7.63 billion) of New Zealand dollar bonds issued in Japan and through global issues, so-called uridashi and eurokiwis, mature this year, Trinh wrote in the note. “We anticipate the largest net negative issuance in history.”

‘Bearish Impact”

International investors hold 73.6 percent of the New Zealand government bond market, according to RBC Capital. “For every 0.1 percentage point decline in foreign ownership, there will be a disproportionately bearish impact on the New Zealand dollar,” Trinh wrote.

Standard & Poor’s lowered its foreign-currency credit- rating outlook for the nation on Jan. 13, citing concern the nation’s current-account deficit and overseas debt will curb growth and investment.

Interest rates in New Zealand will fall to a low of 2.5 percent by the second quarter, RBC Capital said. The benchmark rate is 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero percent in the U.S., a record low.

To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net.





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Gold May Rise for Third Week on Demand for Cash Alternative

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise for a third straight week on speculation that demand for an alterative to cash will spark purchases of the precious metal.

Twenty-two of 31 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Mumbai to Chicago on Jan. 29 and Jan. 30 advised buying gold, which rose 3.4 percent last week to $928.40 an ounce in New York. Eight said to sell, and one was neutral.

Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, reached a record 843.6 metric tons on Jan. 29. The metal gained 5 percent in January.

Traders surveyed on Jan. 22 and Jan. 23 anticipated gold’s advance last week. The survey has forecast prices accurately in 147 of 247 weeks, or 60 percent of the time.

Last week’s survey results: Bullish: 22 Bearish: 8 Neutral: 1

To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net.





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Crude Oil Rises on OPEC Output Concern, U.S. Stimulus Program

By Gavin Evans

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose a second day in New York on speculation output cuts and government stimulus plans will slow rising oil and fuel stockpiles.

Venezuela, the sixth-largest producer in OPEC, would support further output cuts by the group to prevent a glut in an already over-supplied market, Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said yesterday. The U.S. economy, the world’s largest oil user, is “in for a tough several months” before a recovery takes hold, President Barack Obama told NBC yesterday.

“It’s all about expectations,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. “There is some expectation that the Obama stimulus package will kick-start things in the U.S., and that will help the global economy.”

Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 63 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $42.31 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $41.94 at 8:52 a.m. in Singapore.

The contract gained 0.6 percent to $41.68 on Jan. 30 as the threat of refinery strikes in the U.S. helped push gasoline futures to an 11-week high and the Commerce Department reported a smaller-than-expected contraction in the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter.

Brent crude oil for March settlement rose 32 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $46.20 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. It gained 1.1 percent to $45.88 a barrel on Jan. 30.

New York futures fell 10 percent last week and are down 72 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel reached July 11. Prices reached $32.40 on Dec. 19, a four-year low for the front-month contract.

OPEC Cuts

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries accounts for about 40 percent of global oil supplies and last month agreed to reduce output by 2.46 million barrels a day, or 9 percent, starting Jan. 1 to stem the slide in prices.

Members are complying “100 percent” with the new quota which is starting to bring stability to the market, Ramirez told reporters in Caracas. Still, demand has continued to contract since the new ceiling was set and Venezuela would support any additional output cuts sought, he said.

Gasoline for March delivery was barely changed at $1.2690 a gallon on Nymex after earlier falling as much as 0.12 cent. It gained 2 percent to $1.2687 on Jan. 30.

Talks to prevent a strike at 86 U.S. refineries were extended by 24 hours yesterday after unions reported “sufficient progress” to continue negotiations.

Heating oil for March delivery fell 1 percent to $1.44 a gallon. The contract rose 1.8 percent on Jan. 30.

Cold temperatures mid-week will push New York heating demand 8 percent above average this week, Meteorlogix LLC said in a forecast yesterday.

The global slump has overshadowed the usual seasonal demand influence of the northern hemisphere winter, Commodity Warrants’ Hassall said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net





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‘Grimmest’ Davos Ever Brings Anger, Finger-Pointing at Bankers

By James Hertling and Simon Kennedy

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The theme of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting was “Shaping the Post-Crisis World.” Unfortunately, the assembled executives, policy makers and do- gooders were stuck in the here and now.

The search for scapegoats and the worst economic prospects since World War II resulted in a gathering marked by fear, anger and bitterness, a far cry from the usual search for consensus.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stormed out of a panel discussion and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin hectored the U.S. as the font of the world’s economic woes. Almost everyone blamed the few bankers who showed up for the near-collapse of the financial system.

Attendees were “less reluctant to criticize, and sometimes very vocally criticize, the U.S. and its capitalist system because of the problems we’re having,” said David Rubenstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, who first came to Davos a decade ago. “Maybe that’s deserved, but it’s a big change.”

“Everyone I spoke to says it’s the grimmest Davos they’ve ever been to,” said Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and a World Economic Forum regular since 2002. “The mood has been very depressed. It’s a low-burn depression.”

Another big change was the virtual absence of Wall Street figures among the 2,500 delegates at the conference, which ended yesterday.

‘Stupid Things’

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon was the only U.S. banking chief who showed up. He made a concession to the mood of this year’s event by accepting some blame for the collapse that has led to more than $1 trillion of writedowns. He deflected the rest at regulators.

“God knows, some really stupid things were done by American banks and by American investment banks,” Dimon said. “To policy makers, I say: ‘Where were they?’”

That attitude was tough for some to swallow. At one session, a call for curbs on bankers’ bonuses was met with applause by sections of the audience.

“We should not trust these bankers,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the best-selling book “The Black Swan.” “Look at their track record. The only way to stop the process is for the government to own those banks.”

With the world’s elite nursing a collective hangover after the greatest era of global prosperity came to an end, there was enough bile to go around.

Erdogan’s Walkout

Erdogan stunned a packed house on Jan. 29 by walking out on a debate on last month’s war in the Gaza Strip. He claimed that the session’s moderator didn’t give him equal time with Israeli President Shimon Peres and vowed never to return to Davos. By the time he met the press an hour later, he promised to reconsider.

Anyone who thought Barack Obama’s election as president would temper criticism of U.S. policies would have been disappointed. Economists questioned his $819 billion stimulus plan, urged him to deliver another rescue package for banks and fretted about soaring national debt.

“People are looking for the solution but don’t yet have the question formulated,” Arif Naqvi, chief executive officer of Abraaj Capital Ltd., which manages $7.5 billion, said.

The need for action wasn’t in debate. Away from the slopes, U.S. stocks capped their worst ever January, the International Monetary Fund forecast the weakest global growth in 60 years and companies from Starbucks Corp. to Caterpillar Inc. cut jobs.

Deepening Recession

That led many attendees to predict they’ll still be in a funk when they return in 2010.

“We’re in a multi-multi year problem,” Howard Lutnick, chief executive officer of Cantor Fitzgerald LP., said. “We’ve weathered horrible times before. That’s what lies ahead of us now.”

Delegates also took turns bashing America’s policies and its role in the world.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Putin cited the U.S. for leading the world into recession in back-to-back speeches on the opening day.

“Just a year ago, American delegates speaking from this rostrum emphasized the U.S. economy’s fundamental stability and its cloudless prospects,” Putin said.

To cap it off, Putin dismissed a query from audience member Michael Dell, head of personal-computer maker Dell Inc., about what the technology community could do to assist Russia.

“We don’t need any help. We are not invalids,” Putin said.

Balanced Tone?

The spats gave this year’s conference a more balanced tone, said Bahraini banker Khalid Abdulla-Janahi, who remembers then- Vice President Dick Cheney “hammering the Russians, the Iranians and many others” during his 2004 visit.

“This time, it was a two-way street,” said the chairman of Ithmaar Bank BSC. “We heard Putin hammering the West and Erdogan standing up to Peres. That’s how it should be.”

Those who made it to the five-day Alpine retreat insisted that they weren’t wasting their time or their money --and they really didn’t mind the muted tone of the event’s party circuit.

“People are conscious about throwing parties or even smiling this year,” said Martin Sorrell, chief executive of WPP Group Plc. “It’s become a little too big, but it’s never been more relevant.”

To contact the reporter on the story: James Hertling in Davos at jhertling@bloomberg.net; Simon Kennedy in Davos at skennedy4@bloomberg.net





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China’s World-Beating Stocks Keep BlackRock Bullish on Economy

By Chen Shiyin and Michael Patterson

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The world’s largest money managers say China’s steepest monthly stock gain in more than a year shows the fastest-growing major economy will avert a recession.

The Shanghai Composite Index, the broadest measure of shares traded on the mainland, opens after a weeklong celebration of the Lunar New Year and a 9.3 percent gain in January, the best among the world’s 10 biggest markets. Last year, the index fell 65 percent, the worst since at least 1996, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chinese shares rebounded after the central bank lowered interest rates five times since September and the government announced a $585 billion stimulus plan. China’s economy is expected to grow near 8 percent this year even after expanding 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace since December 2001, according to fund managers Richard Urwin at BlackRock Inc. and Barclays Plc’s Russ Koesterich, who together help manage more than $3 trillion in assets.

“China is going to do what it has to do to keep the economy humming,” Koesterich, the San Francisco-based head of investment strategy at Barclays Global Investors, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Jan. 26. “They can enjoy faster growth than the rest of the world in 2009 and in 2010 as well.”

The Shanghai Composite of 895 stocks fell 0.7 percent to 1990.66 when it last traded on Jan. 23. That pared its third straight weekly gain to 1.9 percent.

China Stimulus

China pressured state-owned banks to increase lending, unveiled the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package, reduced export taxes and agreed to provide support for 10 industries, through tax cuts and subsidies for steel and autos.

The central bank dropped quotas limiting annual lending by banks in the fourth quarter. The government has also urged banks, most of which are state-owned, to lend more to small and medium-sized companies. Money supply and lending surged in December, according to the statistics bureau.

“The Chinese have a pretty strong pro-growth agenda at the moment and they tend to do whatever it takes to stabilize the growth slowdown,” said Urwin, the head of asset allocation at BlackRock in London.

Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd., said it’s a “myth” that China will lead the world out of a recession, especially as the U.S., China’s biggest export market after the European Union, imports less.

‘Going South’

“Most of the juice in the Chinese growth results in the last five or six years have been export-led,” Roach said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Zurich. “How can an export- led economy lead the world out if its export markets are going south?”

The U.S. economy shrank the most since 1982 in the fourth quarter as consumer spending slid. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Jan. 22 that President Barack Obama believes China is “manipulating its currency,” suggesting that the new administration may take a tougher line on China’s exchange-rate regime.

Geithner also said last month that China should focus on “more aggressive” efforts to boost its own economic growth, in concert with the coming U.S. stimulus package. The U.S. House of Representatives on Jan. 29 passed Obama’s $819 billion stimulus plan, aimed at lifting the economy out of recession through tax cuts and new spending.

China’s gross domestic product will expand 6.3 percent this quarter from a year earlier, the median estimate of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg News showed.

Difficult Year

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Jan. 28 it will be a “tall order” meeting the nation’s 8 percent growth target. New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini predicts economic growth in China will slow to less than 5 percent.

“This year will be a difficult one for stocks,” said Howard Wang, who oversees $10 billion at JF Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong. Government stimulus measures are unlikely to offset a contraction in private real estate investment and capital investment for exporters, Wang said.

Demand for property has sagged in China, with home prices across 70 cities dropping for the first time on record in December.

Chinese stocks are trading at less than one-third of their peak valuations in January 2008. Before the Lunar New Year holiday break, the Shanghai Composite Index was valued at 15.5 times reported earnings, down from a six-year high of 50 times a year ago. That’s still the highest among benchmark indexes in Asia.

Easing Restrictions

Beijing North Star Co., a real estate arm of the municipal government, is among China stocks traded in Hong Kong that gained last week while the mainland market was closed.

The official Xinhua News Agency reported on Jan. 24 that Beijing removed restrictions on the purchase of real estate by foreigners in an effort to create more demand. The city has also eased financing for some buyers and granted developers a delay in payment, UBS AG said in a Jan. 30 report.

Beijing North Star climbed 8.1 percent in Hong Kong trading last week. The Shanghai-traded stock has gained 8.5 percent this year after tumbling 80 percent in 2008.

China Vanke Co., the nation’s largest publicly traded developer and not listed in Hong Kong, has risen 9.2 percent in Shenzhen. It dropped 64 percent last year.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China’s largest lender, rose 3.4 percent in Hong Kong trading last week, while the so-called H shares of China Construction Bank, the second- biggest, rose 4.3 percent. The shares have gained 3.4 percent and 4.4 percent respectively in Shanghai trading this year.

“China is still a market we continue to be overweight in because it has the best potential for effective policy stimulus,” said Mark Tan, who helps oversee about $3 billion in Asian equities at UOB Asset Management Ltd., a unit of Singapore’s second-largest bank.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net; Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net.





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Obama Says U.S. Economy Facing Several ‘Tough’ Months

By Roger Runningen

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said the U.S. economy is “in for a tough several months” before a recovery takes hold.

“It’s going to take a number of months before we stop falling and then a little bit longer for us to get back on track,” Obama said today in an interview with NBC.

The president said once his economic stimulus plan has made it through Congress, his administration will be unveiling a more extensive plan to deal with financial-market regulation. Both are part of his plan to help pull the U.S. out of a recession.

The world’s largest economy shrank at an annual pace of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the most since 1982, the Commerce Department reported last week. U.S. job losses hit 2.6 million in 2008, the most since 1945. Plunging demand and frozen credit are causing companies from Caterpillar Inc. to General Motors Corp. to pare jobs and output to prevent unsold goods from piling up.

The unemployment rate likely climbed to 7.5 percent in January from 7.2 percent in December, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Labor Department figures Feb. 6. Other reports may show manufacturing, services and housing shrank further, signaling more firings ahead.

“We’re going to have to straighten out the credit markets,” Obama said.

Hurdle Cleared

Obama’s economic recovery plan cleared the first hurdle last week when the House passed a $819 billion package of tax cuts and spending. Senate Republicans now are pushing for revisions.

Arizona Republican Senator Jon Kyl said earlier today that support for Obama’s plan is “eroding” among his colleagues.

“There would be major structural changes that would have to occur,” for Republicans to support it, Kyl said on “Fox News Sunday.” Kyl, the second-ranking Republican in the Senate, said the measure is too expensive, ineffective and would require “huge amendments” to win over members of his party.

Obama, who met with lawmakers of both parties at the Capitol to lobby for their support, said today that Republicans “have some good ideas, and I want to make sure those ideas are incorporated.” He offered no details.

The House legislation passed without a single Republican vote. The president declined to predict the number of Republican votes the Senate package would get.

Iraq Troops

Obama also said many of the U.S. troops in Iraq can expect to be out of that country by this time next year as the Iraqis take more responsibility for their own security. Obama ran his campaign on a pledge to withdraw U.S. combat forces in 16 months.

“We are in a position to put more responsibilities on the Iraqis” following elections yesterday in that country, Obama said.

The president said his family is adjusting to life in the White House. Daughters Malia and Sasha have “already joined some clubs” at school and Sasha has joined a basketball team.

“What more could I want?” he said. “I’m seeing them now more than anytime in the last two years, and that’s been great for the whole family.”

Obama granted an interview, broadcast live from the White House, to NBC before the kickoff of Super Sunday XLIII in Tampa, Florida. It was part of the network’s six-hour pre-game show leading up to the National Football League’s championship game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals.

Sports Allegiances

Obama’s allegiance is to the Chicago Bears, who didn’t make the cut this year, so he’s backing the Pittsburgh Steelers. The decision may not have been difficult: the president got election support from Steelers team owner Dan Rooney and former Steelers running back Franco Harris. Obama also carried Pennsylvania in the election. Arizona voters backed for home state candidate Senator John McCain.

The president maintained his bipartisan outreach program by inviting 15 members of Congress to the White House for the event, though there’s a distinct tilt toward the Steelers.

Among guests, five are from Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation, including both of the state’s senators, Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Arlen Specter. Rooting for Arizona will be Democratic Representative Raul Grijalva and Republican Representative Trent Franks.

To contact the reporter on this story: Roger Runningen in Springfield, Virginia at rrunningen@bloomberg.net





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Asian Stocks Fall on Deepening Recession Concern; BHP Declines

By Masaki Kondo

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks dropped, led by commodity and technology companies, as shrinking factory output in Australia and declining corporate profits fueled concerns that the global recession is deepening.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, fell 2.8 percent in Sydney after Australian manufacturing contracted for an eighth month and metal prices declined in London. Hitachi Ltd., the world’s third-largest maker of hard-disk drives, fell 6.7 percent after projecting a record loss. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan’s second-largest listed bank, declined 5.3 percent after posting its second quarterly loss in a row.

“We’ll likely continue to see a series of downward earnings revisions from companies and analysts,” Tomochika Kitaoka, a Tokyo-based strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “With more companies cutting dividends, domestic investors will likely shy away from the equity market.”

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index lost 1.8 percent to 81.59 as of 9:54 a.m. in Tokyo. Four stocks declined for each that advanced on the gauge, which has lost 8.4 percent this year amid signs the global recession is eroding company profit growth.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 2.4 percent to 7,806. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.4 percent. All markets open for trading declined.

In New York, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 2.3 percent on Jan. 30, capping a fourth weekly drop.

BHP lost 2.8 percent to A$29.61. Australia’s manufacturing index was 36.6 in January, the Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers said in a report today. A reading below 50 signals factory output is shrinking. Manufacturing accounts for a tenth of the nation’s gross domestic product.

Hitachi, Panasonic

Separately, a measure of six metals traded in London dropped for a second day on Jan. 30, losing 1.9 percent.

Hitachi lost 6.7 percent to 294 yen. The company reversed its profit forecast on Jan. 30 to a record net loss of 700 billion yen ($7.81 billion) for the year ending March 31. Demand in the automobile, semiconductor and industrial-equipment industries was declining “rapidly,” the company said.

Panasonic Corp., the world’s largest maker of consumer electronics, dropped 4.6 percent to 1,048 yen. The company may report a 350 billion yen net loss for this business year, the Yomiuri newspaper reported yesterday. The median of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg projected 6 billion yen in profit.

Mizuho, the Japanese bank with the biggest subprime writedowns in Asia, slumped 5.3 percent to 215 yen. The company turned to a 145.1 billion yen loss in the three months ended Dec. 31 from a 66 billion yen profit a year earlier.

Japanese companies from car manufacturers to electronics makers have cut their full-year earnings outlooks as the world’s largest economies plunged into recession. Domestic businesses reporting their third-quarter earnings have posted an 85 percent tumble in net income for the quarter, Tokyo-based Shinko Research Institute Co. said in a report dated Jan. 30.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net



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Australia Stocks: Alumina, BHP, Henderson, Rio, Sino, Westfield

By Shani Raja

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.4 percent to 3,490.10 at 10:54 a.m. in Sydney. The broader All Ordinaries Index declined 1.1 percent to 3,440.50, while the futures contract expiring in March slipped 1.1 percent to 3,457.

The following companies are among the most active shares in the market today. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

Mining shares: Gold stocks rose after the precious metal gained 2.4 percent to $928.40 an ounce in New York, capping a third straight monthly gain, as investors sought an alternative to holding cash.

St. Barbara Ltd. (SBM AU), aiming to become Australia’s third-largest gold producer, rallied 4.8 percent to 33 cents, the most since Jan. 22. Sino Gold Mining Ltd. (SGX AU) rose 2.8 percent to A$5.10, the highest since Sept. 23

U.S.-linked stocks: U.S. stocks slid on Jan. 30, capping the worst January for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as more companies reported disappointing earnings. The S&P 500 slipped 2.3 percent to 825.88 to complete a fourth straight weekly drop, its longest losing streak since July.

James Hardie Industries NV (JHX AU), the biggest seller of home siding in the U.S., dropped 3.1 percent to A$3.80, the lowest since Dec. 12. Westfield Group (WDC AU), which owns shopping malls in the U.S., lost 6.1 percent to A$11.31, a record low.

Alumina Ltd. (AWC AU), partner in the world’s biggest producer of the material used to make aluminum, slipped 1.8 percent to A$1.12, the lowest since Dec. 23. Oleg Deripaska, the biggest shareholder of the world’s largest aluminum producer, said he expects “no more happy times” in the industry as a sluggish global economy saps demand.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP AU), the world’s largest mining company, declined 2.7 percent to A$29.69, the most since Jan. 23. A measure of six metals traded in London dropped for the second day, losing 1.9 percent. Copper slipped 2.3 percent, zinc 2.1 percent, and nickel 1.8 percent.

Separately, BHP Chairman Don Argus may announce his departure from the company as early as this week, the Independent on Sunday reported, without saying where it got the information.

Henderson Group Plc (HGG AU), a U.K. money manager, soared 17 percent to A$1.62, a record gain and the benchmark’s best performance. Henderson agreed to buy rival fund manager New Star Asset Management Group Plc in a deal valuing the company at 115 million pounds ($166 million). In a separate statement, Henderson said a placing is set to raise about 47 million pounds for the New Star acquisition.

Rio Tinto Group (RIO AU), the third biggest mining company, gained 2.5 percent to A$43.21, the highest since Jan. 9. Rio said it’s in talks with Aluminum Corp. of China to sell stakes in some of its units to its largest shareholder and raise cash to reduce debt.

Straits Asia Resources Ltd. (SRL AU) rallied 6.6 percent to A$1.13, the index’s second-biggest gainer. The company said it hasn’t been informed about any formal offer for a stake its parent was considering selling in the Singapore coal producer. Reuters reported the deal and cited unidentified people saying Noble Group Ltd. and PT Indika Energy Tbk were among companies interested in bidding.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.





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Japan Stocks Fall as Earnings Slump Signals Prolonged Recession

By Masaki Kondo

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks dropped after Hitachi Ltd., Fujitsu Ltd. and NEC Corp. reversed their profit forecasts to losses, indicating the nation’s economic slump is deepening.

Hitachi, the world’s third-largest maker of hard-disk drives, plunged, 17 percent. NEC dropped almost 7 percent. Fujitsu, Japan’s biggest computer-service provider, declined 4.1 percent. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., the nation’s second- largest listed bank, retreated 4.9 percent after posting its second quarterly loss in a row.

“We’ll likely continue to see a series of downward earnings revisions from companies and analysts,” Tomochika Kitaoka, a Tokyo-based strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “With more companies cutting dividends, domestic investors will likely shy away from the equity market.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 153.27, or 1.9 percent, to 7,840.78 as of 9:29 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index fell 15.77, or 2 percent, to 778.26, with almost four stocks slumping for each that rose.

The Nikkei lost a record 42 percent last year and anther 9.8 percent in January, the steepest monthly decline since October, as Japanese companies from car manufacturers to electronics makers have cut their full-year earnings outlooks. Domestic businesses reporting their third-quarter earnings have posted an 85 percent tumble in net income for the quarter, Tokyo-based Shinko Research Institute Co. said in a report dated Jan. 30.

NEC Retreats

Hitachi dropped 6.7 percent to 294 yen, headed for the lowest close since December 1980, after reversing its profit forecast on Jan. 30 to a record net loss of 700 billion yen ($7.81 billion) for the year ending March 31. Demand in the automobile, semiconductor and industrial-equipment industries was declining “rapidly,” the company said.

NEC, Japan’s biggest personal computer maker, retreated 6.9 percent to 228 yen after worsening earnings prospects prompted the company to announce it would cut more than 20,000 workers by March 2010. Fujitsu, the nation’s largest computer-service provider, sank 4.1 percent to 395 yen after projecting its first net loss since the fiscal year ended March 2003.

Panasonic Corp., the world’s largest maker of consumer electronics, dived 4.6 percent to 1,048 yen. The company may report a 350 billion yen net loss for this business year, the Yomiuri newspaper reported yesterday. The median of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg projected 6 billion yen in profit.

Sharp Corp., Japan’s largest maker of liquid-crystal displays, lost 3.8 percent to 651 yen. The company will probably report a full-year net loss for the first time since becoming a publicly traded company in 1956, the Asahi newspaper reported on Jan. 31.

Mizuho slid 4.9 percent to 216 yen. The bank posted a quarterly net loss in the three months ended Dec. 31 after writing down the value of its stockholdings and non-performing loans swelled.

Nikkei futures expiring in March retreated 1.4 percent to 7,830 in Osaka and by the same degree to 7,840 in Singapore.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.





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Saturday, January 31, 2009

Canada’s Dollar Falls as Economy Contracts, Investors Shun Risk

By Chris Fournier

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s currency fell in January as a report showed the economy shrank in November and the global recession led investors to take refuge in the U.S. dollar.

The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, depreciated 0.8 percent this month as the U.S. economy contracted the most in the fourth quarter since 1982. The U.S. is Canada’s largest export market.

“There’s not a lot of good things out there right now for the Canadian dollar,” said Andrew Busch, a currency strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. “We’ve been getting earnings and economic data that continue to show a dire situation. It’s hard to gain any traction.”

The Canadian currency slid to C$1.2296 per U.S. dollar yesterday in Toronto, from C$1.2188 on Dec. 31. One Canadian dollar buys 81.40 U.S. cents.

The loonie will weaken to C$1.26 against the U.S. dollar by the end of March before rebounding by year-end to C$1.20, according to the median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Canada’s economy, the world’s eighth-largest, contracted 0.7 percent in November, Statistics Canada said yesterday in Ottawa. The drop, which was more than forecast, was the biggest since August 2003, when northeastern North America was hit by a power blackout.

“GDP numbers for Canada were horrible,” said David Watt, a senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets. “Any sort of rebound in confidence in the Canadian dollar has proved elusive.”

C$40 billion Stimulus

Petro-Canada, Canada’s third-biggest oil and gas producer posted a C$691 million fourth-quarter loss on Jan. 29. Procter & Gamble Co., the world’s largest consumer-products company, posted quarterly sales yesterday that trailed estimates, and the company reduced its annual forecast.

A collapse in demand for commodities and a recession in the U.S. weakened the loonie by 18 percent last year, the currency’s worst-ever performance. It fell in seven of the last eight months. Raw materials such as crude oil generate half the country’s exports.

Canada’s dollar rose to C$1.2026 on Jan. 28, the strongest in two weeks, after the opposition Liberal Party spared the ruling Conservative Party from defeat by signaling accord with its proposed C$40 billion ($32.6 billion) package of economic revival measures.

The greenback strengthened this week against 10 of its 16 most actively traded counterparts as investors sought relative safety from global economic turmoil in the world’s reserve currency. The exceptions were the pound, South Korea’s won, the loonie, Brazil’s real, Norway’s krone and South Africa’s rand.

The yield on the two-year government bond rose 18 basis points in the week, or 0.18 percentage point, to 1.42 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in December 2010 fell 35 cents to C$102.40.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net


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Zambia Will Scrap Windfall Tax on Mining Companies

By Geoffrey Kapembwa

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Zambia, Africa’s biggest copper producer, will scrap a windfall tax on mining companies, Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said, following opposition to the duty from miners.

The levy will be abolished with effect from April 1, Musokotwane said in his annual budget speech today in the capital, Lusaka. A variable-rate profit tax will be kept.

The government will “remove the windfall tax and retain the variable-profit tax, which will still capture any windfall gains that may arise in the sector,” Musokotwane said.

Zambia introduced the two levies last year, raising the effective tax rate on miners to 47 percent from 31 percent. Copper prices last year dropped 54 percent on the London Metal Exchange, the most since at least 1987, as recessions in the U.S., Japan and Europe curbed demand for industrial metals. Copper accounts for about 70 percent of Zambia’s export income.


On June 10, former Finance Minister Ng’Andu Magande said the country was renegotiating the new code with some mining companies in order to boost mineral production.

Fiscal revenue from the mining industry in 2008 was 319.3 billion kwacha ($62.3 million), compared with a target of 917.3 billion kwacha, according to the Economic Intelligence Unit.

The windfall tax required miners to pay a levy on sales of copper when the price rose above $2.50 per pound. A charge of 25 percent applied to the surplus amount above $2.50 to a maximum of $3.00 per pound. The rate increased to 50 percent at between $3.00 and $3.50 and 75 percent above $3.50.

Economic Growth

A tax on profits of up to 15 percent was also imposed on companies that earned a return in excess of 8 percent on their investments.

Companies including First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Vedanta Resources Plc and Glencore International AG operate in Zambia.

Zambia’s economy expanded an estimated 5.8 percent last year, down from 6.3 percent the year before, while consumer inflation accelerated to 16.6 percent from 8.9 percent, driven by higher food costs, the budget showed. The government is targeting growth of 5 percent this year and inflation of 10 percent.

“Our export receipts are expected to be significantly lower than in previous years due to the fall in world copper prices,” Musokotwane said. “This will adversely affect our balance of payments. This problem is compounded by our continued dependence on a single major export commodity.”

The government expects to spend 15.3 billion kwacha ($297 million) this year, with 17.2 percent of that allocated toward education, 11.9 percent toward health and 9.9 percent toward transport.

To contact the reporter on this story: Geoffrey Kapembwa in Lusaka via Johannesburg at pmrichardson@bloomberg.net.


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