Economic Calendar

Monday, February 16, 2009

US House Passes 2nd Stimulus bill

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Easy Forex | Feb 16 09 01:22 GMT |

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day with the market initially selling the dollar in Asia before weak European Data and sluggish US stocks let the reserve currency pare back losses ahead of the G7 meeting over the weekend. Stocks welcomed the House passing the 2nd stimulus bill but weak Consumer sentiment weighed. UoM Sentiment fell to 56.2 vs. 60.6 expected. Crude Oil closed up $3.53 ending the New York session at $37.51 per barrel. In US share markets, the Dow Jones fell 82 points or -1.04% and the NASDAQ fell 7 points or -0.48%. Looking ahead, Presidents day in America

The Euro (EUR) weakened after GDP data revealed the economy's slowdown was accelerating. Q4 German GDP fell -2.1% vs. -1.8% forecast and the Eurozone GDP dropped -1.5% vs. -1.3%. Weakness in stocks capped any recovery seen in the EUR/JPY. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2822 and a high of 1.2941 before closing the day at 1.2890.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) positive momentum in Asia sent the crosses to day highs in early Europe but the lack of follow through in US stocks pare gains going into the weekend. USD/JPY was especially well supported as technically this pair pointed to a break higher and the market is cautious of any intervention talk out of the G7 meeting. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.55 and a high of 92.05 before closing the day around 91.83 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Japan GDP Q4 forecast to fall -3.1% Q/Q.

The Sterling (GBP) rebounded during the day briefly touching 1.46 before settling back into the US close. Market views are mixed with some participants covering shorts ahead of the G7 on concerns the Pounds weakness may be mentioned. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4279 and a high of 1.4605 before closing the day at 1.4392 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was well supported during Asia as news broke that the Australian Government had passed its own stimulus package. Again in the US session the Aussie rallied as the US stimulus package moved through the House of Reps. Helping to keep the pair buoyant was the 7% rally in Oil. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6533and a high of 0.6642 before closing the US session at 0.6592.

Gold (XAU) consolidated gains after failing to break cleanly above $950 during the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$936 and high of USD$952 before ending the New York session at USD$932 an ounce.

Easy Forex
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Easy-Forex makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Therefore you should consider whether these products are appropriate in view of your objectives, financial situation and needs as well as considering the risks associated in dealing with those products





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Forex Exchange Morning Report

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Westpac Institutional Bank | Feb 16 09 01:18 GMT |

News And Views

Concerns over banking industry health drove US equities lower, even after the House of Representatives passed the $787 billion stimulus plan. The worse-than-expected US consumer sentiment report was a minor factor on the day. The S&P500 fell 1%, banks down 7%, as Well Fargo revised its Q4 losses higher and contagion set in. Lloyd's did similarly in the UK, blaming the revision on a new valuation of subsidiary HBOS's assets. This pressure to sell risk was countered in FX markets by pre-G7 positioning, some speculating on a Mondayboost to the most battered currencies. The G7 meeting did release comments on the need to limit currency volatility, but none were singled out by name. Oil closed a notable 10% higher, as traders closed large short positions ahead of the three-day US weekend, but other major commodities were subdued. US treasuries were sold heavily, the 10year yield up 11bp on digestion of last week's record issuance.

NZD/USD replicated its trans-Tasman counterpart, almost reaching 0.53 in Europe, and falling back to 0.5230. Friday's retail sales report confirmed our suspicions that the uncertain outlook is motivating consumers to save. The housing report showed volumes stabilising, but prices continuing to fall.

AUD/USD continued its stimulus-led domestic bounce until early Europe to 0.6645, when it followed EUR's lead lower, and ended the US session slightly above its 0.6550 low. AUD/NZD did little, well contained by 1.2500 to 1.2580.

EUR had several gyrations within a 1.2820 to 1.2945 range, as Q4 GDP printed weaker. GBP suffered the Lloyd's result, plunging from 1.46 1.4350. Speculators were likely long GBP, pre-G7, exaggerating the fall. USD/JPY was one-way from 91 to 92, again on expectations of a specific G7 comment.

US UoM consumer sentiment falls from 61.2 to 56.2 in early Feb. Consumer sentiment weakened significantly this month. Current conditions edged up a little, but the higher weighted expectations component fell back sharply. Inflation expectations fell in the shorter term, but increased slightly on a five year view - quite prescient on the part of US consumers, given that inflation is about to turn negative because of falling energy costs but may return as a problem in several years time due to the policy measures now being put into place to support the banking sector and prevent a deeper recession.

Canadian auto sales dropped 14.8% in December, their third monthly decline. The latest fall was the steepest since January 1998 when sales were hit hard by an ice storm; there were no such weather factors at play this time around. StatCan guidance for January was that sales recovered by 'about 6%'.

Euroland GDP contracts 1.5% in Q4, confirming that the Euroland economic recession deepened alarmingly late last year, with all major member countries recording a sharp contraction in output. Little detail is available with this advance report, but partial data make it clear that the slump in global trade has had a significant impact on industrial production and exports across much of the continent. For Euroland as a whole, the 1.2% yr annual pace of output decline is the weakest since aggregate data began in the mid 1990s.

Outlook

The bounce to 0.53 was unsurprising, given last week's larger sell-off, from 0.5450 to 0.5150. That bounce appears to have run its course (the risk is it has a bit of energy left, and reaches 0.5350), and this week should be business as usual – a resumption of the downward trend towards a 0.50 re-test. Q4 PPI today should be weaker, but this information lags the already released CPI figures, so reaction should be minimal.

Date Country Release Last Forecast
16-Feb NZ Q4 Producer Output Prices 2.80% 0.40%


Q4 Producer Input Prices 3.70% 0.40%

Aus RBA Head of International Dept


US President’s Day


Jpn Q4 GDP %qtr –0.5% –3.0%

UK House Prices %yr –7.3%

Can Dec Manufacturing Shipments –6.4% –4.5%
17-Feb Aus RBA Board Feb Minutes, 11:30am


US Feb NY Fed Index –22.2 –25.0


Feb NAHB Housing Market Index 8 7

Westpac Institutional Bank
http://www.wib.westpac.co.nz/

Disclaimer

All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by HY Markets | Feb 16 09 03:52 GMT |

EUR/USD closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it renews this year's decline, fib support crossing is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

USD/JPY closed higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level crossing is the next downside target.

GBP/USD closed higher on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Thursday's low but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that short-term low has been posted.

USD/CHF posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of the week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing are needed to confirm that a short- term low has been posted. If it renews last week's decline, January's low crossing is the next downside target.

HY Markets
http://www.hymarkets.com





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Daily Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX Instructor | Feb 16 09 03:50 GMT |

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD didn't make significant movement on Friday. The market seemed to have hesitation and wait for a significant market catalyst. We had significant gap early today as the price opened about 100 pips lower than Friday's closing price. Technically on daily chart we have a descending triangle formation which is a bearish scenario pattern with 1.2700 key level on the downside. Break below that level could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.2500 area. CCI in oversold area and heading up on both hourly and 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure testing 1.2850 - 1.2900 resistance area. US market close.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 1.2826
S2= 1.2764
S3= 1.2706
R1= 1.2946
R2= 1.3004
R3= 1.3066

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 1.4601 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.4399. Today market opened at 1.4245 which mean we had about 150 pips gap lower. Fibonacci retracement study on 4h chart showed us that after failed to break above 50% level (1.4600) the price move to the downside and now below 38.2% level (1.4350) and should challenge the 23.6% level at 1.4030 area. Immediate support at 1.4130. Initial resistance at 1.4350. CCI almost cross the -100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressure. US market close.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 1.4233
S2= 1.4067
S3= 1.3883
R1= 1.4583
R2= 1.4767
R3= 1.4933

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY continued it's bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped at 92.02 and closed at 91.97. We still have a valid bullish channel on 4h chart but further bullish scenario is limited by trend line resistance. This limited bullish scenario also supported by overbought CCI and heading down indicating potential downside pullback. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 91.30. Initial resistance at 92.02 (Friday's high). US market close.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 91.00
S2= 90.03
S3= 89.52
R1= 92.48
R2= 92.99
R3= 93.96

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF didn't make significant movement on Friday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.1485 but closed higher at 1.1601. Fibonacci retracement study on daily chart show us that after had bullish reversal since December 29th 2008 the pair has broke 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% resistance levels but now seem hesitate to consistently stay above 61.8 % level (1.1550). However the bias remains bullish in long term view. Immediate support is seen at 1.1485 (Friday's low). Initial resistance at 1.1730. CCI heading up towards 100 line on daily chart sugegsting a potential upside pressure. US market close.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 1.1504
S2= 1.1408
S3= 1.1331
R1= 1.1677
R2= 1.1754
R3= 1.1850

Bogdan Parascanu FX Instructor LLC
www.fxinstructor.com

The information has been prepared for information purposes only. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. This information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FXInstructor LLC assumes no responsibilities for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon this information. FXInstructor LLC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FXInstructor LLC shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, or consequential damages including without limitation losses, lost revenues or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results





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FX Technical Commentary

Written by Easy Forex | Feb 16 09 01:26 GMT |

Euro 1.2810

Initial support at 1.2722 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1.2707 (Feb 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2821 (Feb 13 low) at followed by 1.2998 (Feb 11 high)

Yen 91.40

Initial support is located at 90.54 (Feb 13 low) followed by 89.71 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.04 (Feb 13 high) followed by 92.42 (Feb 9 high).

Pound 1.4240

Initial support at 1.4137 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1.3929 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4415 (Feb 12 high) followed by 1.4565 (Feb 11 high).

Australian Dollar 0.6535

Initial support at 0.6523 (Feb 13 low) followed by the 0.6432 (Feb 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6643 (Feb 13 high) followed by 0.6798 (Feb 10 high).

Gold 942

Initial support at 911 (Feb 11 low) followed by 889 (Feb 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 950 (Key level) followed by 952 (Feb 12 high).

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2707 1.2722 1.2810 1.2821 1.2998
USD/JPY 89.71 90.54 91.40 92.04 92.42
GBP/USD 1.3929 1.4137 1.4240 1.4415 1.4565
AUD/USD 0.6432 0.6523 0.6535 0.6643 0.6798
XAU/USD 889.00 911.00 942.00 950.00 952.00

Easy Forex
http://www.easy-forex.com

Easy-Forex makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Therefore you should consider whether these products are appropriate in view of your objectives, financial situation and needs as well as considering the risks associated in dealing with those products





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Japan’s GDP Shrinks 12.7%, Most Since 1974 Oil Shock

By Jason Clenfield

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, as recessions in the U.S. and Europe triggered a record drop in exports.

Gross domestic product fell for a third straight quarter in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an 11.6 percent contraction.

Exports plunged an unprecedented 13.9 percent from the third quarter as demand for Corolla cars and Bravia televisions collapsed amid a slump that the Group of Seven nations said will persist for most of 2009. Toyota Motor Corp., Sony Corp. and Hitachi Ltd. -- all of which forecast losses -- are firing thousands of workers, heightening the risk a decline in household spending will prolong the recession.

“The economy is in terrible shape and the scary part is that we’re likely to see a similar drop this quarter,” said Seiji Adachi, a senior economist at Deutsche Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “All we can do is wait for overseas demand to pick up.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.2 percent at the lunch break in Tokyo, extending the year’s losses to 12 percent. The yen rose to 91.62 per dollar from 91.76 on speculation Japan will refrain from taking measures to weaken the currency. The yen’s 18 percent gain over the past year has compounded exporters’ woes by eroding the value of their overseas sales.

Worse Than U.S., Europe

The world’s second-largest economy shrank 3.3 percent from the third quarter, today’s report showed. That compared with the U.S.’s 1 percent contraction and the euro-zone’s 1.5 percent decline, which was the sharpest in at least 13 years.

“There’s no doubt that the economy is in its worst state in the postwar period,” Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said in Tokyo. “The Japanese economy, which is heavily dependent on exports of autos, electronics and capital goods, has been severely hit by the global slowdown.”

G-7 finance chiefs meeting in Rome last weekend vowed to tackle a “severe” economic downturn.

Japan has been in a recession since November 2007, according to a government panel that dates the economic cycle. The Sept. 15 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. worsened a credit crisis that erased more than $14 trillion from global equity markets and paralyzed world trade.

Yosano said the government has no plans to compile additional stimulus measures before next fiscal year’s budget is passed. Parliamentary gridlock has blocked the passage of Prime Minister Taro Aso’s 10 trillion yen ($111 billion) package, helping his popularity slide ahead of elections due by September.

Unpopular Aso

Aso’s approval rating fell to 9.7 percent, the poorest showing since the Yoshiro Mori administration in 2001, according to a Nippon Television news survey.

The Bank of Japan, which in December cut its key interest rate to 0.1 percent, is trying to get credit flowing by purchasing shares and corporate debt from lenders. It has little means to address what analysts say is the economy’s central problem: a lack of overseas demand.

Net exports -- the difference between exports and imports -- accounted for 3 percentage points of the 3.3 percent quarterly drop in GDP.

Japan has become more dependent on sales abroad for growth over the past decade. Overseas shipments make up 16 percent of the economy today compared with about 10 percent in 1999.

“Japan produces high-end durable goods, which are very, very sensitive to credit conditions,” said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. “People normally borrow to buy these things. In that sense, too, Japan was vulnerable.”

Spending Less

Domestic demand, which includes spending by households and companies, made up 0.3 percentage point of the contraction.

Capital investment fell 5.3 percent. Manufacturers cut production by a record 11.9 percent in the quarter, indicating they have little need to buy equipment as factories lay idle. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than half of the economy, dropped 0.4 percent, as exporters fired workers.

Panasonic Corp., Pioneer Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and NEC Corp. announced a combined 65,000 job cuts in the past month. The eliminations may have pushed the recession into a “new phase” in which consumers become more defensive and spend less, according to Martin Schulz, a senior economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo.

Sentiment among households is close to the lowest level in at least 26 years. The jobless rate surged to 4.4 percent in December from 3.9 percent, the biggest jump in four decades.

“The best we can expect for this year is to see the collapse stop,” said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. For Japan to recover, “we’ll need the U.S. and Chinese economies to take off first.”

Without adjusting for inflation, Japan shrank 1.7 percent from the previous quarter, less than the 2.1 percent analysts estimated. The GDP deflator, a broad measure of price changes, rose 0.9 percent, the first increase in a decade.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net





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Australia, New Zealand Dollars Slip as G-7 Calls Slump ‘Severe’

By Candice Zachariahs

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian and New Zealand dollars declined after the Group of Seven finance ministers said the “severe” global downturn would persist through most of 2009, intensifying speculation investors will dump riskier assets.

The currencies slipped after Japan’s economy contracted by the most since the 1974 oil shock, increasing demand for safe- haven currencies such as the yen and the U.S. dollar. New Zealand’s dollar fell after the nation’s services industry shrank for a 10th straight month in January.

“Both Aussie and kiwi are risk-sensitive, growth-sensitive currencies,” said Danica Hampton, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington, referring to the currencies by their nicknames. “Any time we see an increased focus on a gloomy global outlook, that’s going to be negative for the currencies.”

Australia’s dollar fell 0.9 percent to 65.21 U.S. cents at 11:59 a.m. in Sydney from 65.81 cents late in New York last week. The currency dropped 0.9 percent to 59.79 yen.

New Zealand’s dollar weakened 0.4 percent to 52.09 U.S. cents and declined 0.6 percent to 47.77 yen.

The Australian currency may fall toward 64.75 U.S. cents over the next few days and New Zealand’s may decline toward 51.50 cents, according to Hampton.

The G-7’s finance ministers and central bankers said in a statement released after talks in Rome on Feb. 14 that they were working to restore market confidence and revive the world economy.

Traders’ Bets

Japan’s economy shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter amid an unprecedented collapse in exports and production. Gross domestic product fell for a third straight quarter in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo.

Futures traders increased bets the Australian dollar will decline against the greenback, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a fall in the Australian dollar compared with those on a gain --so- called net shorts -- was 5,848 on Feb. 10, compared with net shorts of 5,119 a week earlier.

Australian government bonds declined for a second day, pushing the yield on the 10-year note up six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 4.3 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the 5.25 percent security due March 2019 fell 0.516, or A$5.16 per A$1,000 face amount, to 107.668.

New Zealand’s two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, was little changed at 3.32 percent.

The G-7 oversees about two-thirds of the world economy and is composed of the U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K., Italy, Canada and France.

To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net





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Yen Rises as G-7 Says Slump to Persist, Japan’s Economy Shrinks

By Ron Harui and Candice Zachariahs

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose after finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations said the “severe” global slump will persist for most of 2009 and Japan’s economy shrank by the most since 1974, spurring investors to sell riskier assets.

The yen snapped two days of losses against the dollar and the euro as G-7 officials refrained from making any statement in support of efforts by Japan to weaken its currency. The pound fell versus all of the 16 most-active currencies after the Confederation of British Industry said the U.K. economy will contract at almost twice the pace previously forecast this year.

“The G-7 statement excluded reference to the yen and Japan’s GDP report was poor, which probably kept investors risk averse,” said Masashi Kurabe, head of currency sales and trading in Hong Kong at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan’s largest publicly traded bank by assets. “There’s a bias for the yen to strengthen.”

The yen climbed to 91.58 against the dollar as of 12:41 p.m. in Tokyo from 91.93 late in New York on Feb. 13. It advanced to 116.99 per euro from 118.37. Japan’s currency climbed 1 percent to 59.75 versus Australia’s dollar and rose 1 percent to 47.56 against New Zealand’s dollar.

Japan’s currency may appreciate to 89 per dollar and 115 versus the euro this week, Kurabe said. Exchange-rate movements may be volatile in Asian trading as a national holiday in the U.S. reduces volumes, he said.

The U.S. dollar gained to $1.2777 per euro from $1.2862 in New York last week, and climbed to 1.1662 Swiss francs from 1.1590. The British pound fell 0.9 percent to $1.4233 and weakened 0.2 percent to 89.75 pence per euro.

‘Disorderly Movements’

“It was notable that the G-7 described the current situation as a ‘severe’ downturn,” said Danica Hampton, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. “The gloomy outlook for the global economy combined with limited references to the currencies or to intervention all indicate risk-sensitive currencies will be heavy.”

The G-7 repeated its traditional message that “excess volatility” and “disorderly movements” in exchange rates must be avoided. The group accounts for about two-thirds of the world economy and is composed of the U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K., Italy, Canada and France.

The yen remained higher and Japanese stocks declined after the Cabinet Office said Japan’s economy shrank 12.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. That was the third straight quarter the economy has contracted.

Japanese exporters have seen the yen value of overseas sales slump as the local currency advanced 21 percent against the dollar in the past six months. The yen has been the best performer among the 16 most-traded currencies in that time.

Risk Aversion

Japan’s GDP report triggered “selling of stocks and revived risk aversion, thereby supporting the yen as a safe-haven” currency, said Yoshifumi Suzuki, a foreign-exchange dealer at Hachijuni Bank Ltd. in Tokyo.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.2 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index dropped 1.6 percent. Implied volatility on one-month dollar-yen options rose to 17.98 percent today from 17.91 percent on Feb. 13, suggesting a greater risk of exchange-rate fluctuations that can erode profit on so-called carry trades.

In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in another with higher rates. The risk is that market moves can erase those profits. The benchmark rate is 0.1 percent in Japan, compared with 3.25 percent in Australia and 3.50 percent in New Zealand, encouraging investors to borrow in yen and invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

U.S. Automakers

Demand for the dollar may weaken after the Wall Street Journal reported General Motors Corp. will ask the U.S. government to provide aid to fund its operations or to provide financial support should it declare bankruptcy,

The U.S. automaker needs at least another $5 billion in government loans to keep operating beyond the first quarter and prevent it from filing for bankruptcy, the newspaper said Feb. 14, citing unidentified people familiar with the company.

“We need to watch closely developments about a turnaround plan at General Motors,” said Takashi Kudo, director of foreign- exchange sales in Tokyo at NTT SmartTrade Inc., a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp., Japan’s largest fixed-line telephone company. “If GM files for Chapter 11 just as the weekend report had said, it will certainly trigger selling of the dollar.”

General Motors and Chrysler LLC, which had previously won approval for $17.4 billion in U.S. loans to prevent them from running out of cash for operations, must submit a progress report to the government by Feb. 17 as a condition of the loans. The automakers are seeking concessions from unions, lenders and creditors to comply with terms of the assistance.

British Pound

The pound also weakened against the dollar and the euro after the G-7 finance chiefs also avoided any reference to the U.K. currency.

There was “no mention, discussion of the pound” at the G-7 meeting, Callum Henderson, head of global currency strategy, and Thomas Harr, senior currency strategist, at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore, wrote in a research note today. “This may prove negative for sterling. Euro-pound in particular is likely to bounce on the back of this omission.”

The U.K. economy will shrink 3.3 percent this year, instead of the 1.7 percent predicted in November, the Confederation of British Industry said today. By the end of this year, the economy will have contracted for six consecutive quarters, it said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net; Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net.





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South Korean Won Falls, Approaching Two-Month Low, on Recession

By Kim Kyoungwha

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won fell toward a two- month low on concern that a deepening global slump will discourage investors from buying emerging-market assets.

The currency shed 10.5 percent this year, the biggest drop among the 10 most-traded Asian currencies outside Japan. Nomura Holdings Inc. forecast today the Korean economy will shrink 6 percent this year as the global recession takes a bigger toll on over-leveraged households and smaller companies than during the 1998 Asian crisis.

“The fear is spreading that the U.S. is entering into a deeper crisis as no quick fix in their auto and bank industries is seen,” said Lee Young Chul, a currency dealer with Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. “Around the 1,400 level, chances of smoothing operations by policy makers remain open.”

The won fell 0.2 percent to 1,407.65 per dollar as of 9:14 a.m. in Seoul, compared with 1,404.35 on Feb. 13, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd.

Group of Seven finance chiefs vowed on Feb. 15 to tackle a “severe” economic downturn that will persist for most of 2009 without spelling out new steps to do so. Japan’s economy shrank the most since the 1974 oil shock, tumbling at an annual 12.7 percent last quarter, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net;





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Asia Commodities Day Ahead: U.S. Steel Idles Two Texas Plants

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Steel Corp. halted production at two tubular-products subsidiaries in Texas on Feb. 13. Rio Tinto Group minority shareholders are “deeply concerned” by Aluminum Corp. of China’s $19.5 billion investment, a group said. Gold fell and copper rose. A plunge in corn prices in the second half of 2008 pushed the value of U.S. crops for the year below the record set in 2007, the government said.

INDUSTRIAL METALS, MINING

Rio Investors ‘Deeply Concerned’ on China Deal, Group Says

Rio Tinto Group minority shareholders are “deeply concerned” by Aluminum Corp. of China’s $19.5 billion investment, said a group representing U.K. institutional investors.

U.S. Steel Shuts Texas Tubular-Product Plants, Lays Off 1,200

U.S. Steel Corp., the largest U.S.-based steelmaker by sales, said it halted production at tubular-products subsidiaries in Texas, where it laid off more than 1,200 employees.

Alcoa Rating Cut to Lowest Investment Grade by Moody’s, Fitch

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, had its long-term debt ratings cut to the lowest investment-grade levels at Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings on concern earnings will remain depressed.

Copper Prices Climb for First Time This Week as Dollar Drops

Copper prices rose for the first time this week as the dollar declined, boosting demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation. Copper rose 0.4 cent, or 0.3 percent, to $1.5385 a pound on Feb. 13 in New York.

First Quantum Cuts Spending, Salaries as Copper Drops

First Quantum Minerals Ltd., owner of the Frontier copper mine in Democratic Republic of Congo, reduced capital spending plans and management salaries to conserve cash and said writedowns cut fourth-quarter profit by $296 million.

ThyssenKrupp Beats Estimates as Elevator Earnings Rise

ThyssenKrupp AG, Germany’s largest steelmaker, said first-quarter profit fell less than analysts estimated as higher earnings from its elevators unit mitigated stockpile writedowns and lower metals demand.

Bolivia May Spend as Much as $200 Million on Lithium Reserves

Bolivia plans to spend $150 million to $200 million to develop lithium reserves at the country´s Uyuni salt flats, according to President Evo Morales.

Alcoa May Need to Use Credit Lines, Lower Dividend, RBC Says

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, may need to draw as much as $1.5 billion from credit lines this year and reduce its dividend even after selling a stake in Rio Tinto Group, RBC Capital Markets said.

Magnitogorsk Has Biggest Steel Cut Among Top Russia Producers

OAO Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel, Russia’s third-largest steelmaker, had the biggest output cut in the fourth quarter among the country’s top six steel companies.

Intrepid Potash’s Avery Says He ‘Screwed Up’ With Claims

Patrick L. Avery, who resigned as president of Intrepid Potash Inc., said he was “stupid” to falsely claim undergraduate and graduate degrees from two universities.

PRECIOUS METALS, GEMS

Gold Falls as Demand Ebbs After Rally Tops $950 Drops

Gold prices fell as demand for the precious metal eased after a three-day rally to the highest since July. Gold dropped $7, or 0.7 percent, to $942.20 an ounce in New York on Feb. 13. Silver rose 11.5 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $13.625 an ounce. Platinum declined $16.90, or 1.6 percent, to $1,061 an ounce. Palladium futures were unchanged at $216.50 an ounce.

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

U.S. Crop Values Fall From Record in 2008 as Corn Price Drops

A plunge in corn prices in the second half of 2008 pushed the value of U.S. crops for the year below the record set in 2007, the government said.

Wheat Boosts Kansas, South Dakota in Top 10 U.S. Farm States

A 25 percent jump in the value of the 2008 wheat crop moved Kansas, the biggest producer of the grain, up three places among the top 10 U.S. agriculture producers and helped South Dakota bump out Washington for the final spot.

Smithfield Foods Amends 300 Million Euro Credit Facility

Smithfield Foods Inc., the world’s biggest pork processor, said it agreed to pay higher interest rates to amend its 300 million euro ($385.8 million) secured revolving credit facility.

Corn, Soybeans Drop as Rains May Revive South America Crops

Corn fell for the sixth straight week and soybeans capped the biggest weekly decline in two months on speculation that demand for U.S. supplies will slow as rains revive drought-stressed crops in Argentina and Brazil. Corn declined 3 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $3.6325 a bushel on Feb. 13 in Chicago. Soybeans dropped 13.75 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $9.5775 a bushel.

Wheat Falls as Rain May Aid Crops in U.S. Great Plains

Wheat fell, erasing earlier gains, on speculation that rain in the U.S. southern Great Plains will boost soil moisture for dormant plants. Wheat fell 3.25 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $5.4825 a bushel in Chicago on Feb. 13.

Cattle Futures Drop as Beef Tumbles to 3-Year Low; Hogs Fall

Cattle futures fell for a third straight day as tumbling beef prices signaled that demand for the meat may be dropping as the U.S. economy slumps. Cattle declined 0.5 cent, or 0.6 percent, to 87 cents a pound on Feb. 13 in Chicago. Hog futures fell 0.05 cent to 63.75 cents a pound.

IFC to Double African Agriculture Investments to $400 Million

The International Finance Corp., the World Bank’s private-sector lending arm, plans to double its investment in African agriculture to $400 million in its next financial year, Chief Executive Officer Lars Thunell said.

SOFT COMMODITIES

Coffee Gains in New York, Halting 3-Day Drop, as Dollar Falls

Coffee prices rose for the first time in four days as the dollar fell, increasing the appeal of some commodities traded in the U.S. Arabica coffee gained 0.55 cent, or 0.5 percent, to $1.15 a pound on Feb. 13 in New York.

Orange Juice Falls as Recession Spurs Slump in Retail Demand

Orange-juice futures fell for the fourth straight day as high retail prices for the beverage eroded demand amid the recession, boosting inventories. Orange-juice futures fell 0.7 cent, or 1 percent, to 68 cents a pound on Feb. 13 in New York.

U.S. Cotton Acres to Fall 14% as Farmers Sow More Corn, Soy

Cotton farmers in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter of the fiber, will reduce planted acreage by 14 percent this year to sow more profitable soybeans and corn crops, the National Cotton Council said.

Cotton Falls as Report Shows Drop in U.S. Consumer Confidence

Cotton prices fell for the fourth straight day, capping the biggest weekly decline in two months, after U.S. consumer confidence approached the lowest level since 1980, signaling shrinking demand for the fiber. Cotton fell 1.25 cents, or 2.7 percent, to 45.22 cents a pound on Feb. 13 in New York.

India Lowers Cotton Production Target on Rain, Late Sowing

India, the world’s second-biggest cotton producer, may gather 10 percent less fiber than forecast previously after delayed sowing and excess rain damaged the crop in the nation’s biggest growing areas.

Sugar Rises as Dollar Weakens, Crude Oil Rallies in New York

Sugar rose for the first time in three sessions as the dollar fell and crude oil surged the most in three weeks, bolstering the appeal of ethanol made from cane. Raw-sugar futures gained 0.08 cent, or 0.6 percent, to 13.57 cents a pound on Feb. 13 in New York.

Cocoa Rises as Stronger Pound May Reduce West African Supply

Cocoa prices rose, trimming this week’s losses, as the U.K. pound gained against the dollar, discouraging West African producers from exporting the beans. Cocoa climbed $23, or 0.9 percent, to $2,672 a metric ton on Feb. 13 in New York.

West Africa Prepares to Fight Cocoa-Caterpillar Infestation

Liberia and three neighboring countries set up a joint taskforce to fight a new infestation of cocoa-eating caterpillars, which is threatening to decimate agriculture in the region.

For Related News and Information: Top commodity stories: CTOP Top metals stories: METT Top agriculture stories: TOP AGR





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Japan Aluminum Stockpiles Surge to Highest in Decade

By Jae Hur

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum stockpiles in Japan, Asia’s largest importer, surged to the highest in more than a decade in January as a deepening recession slashed demand for the metal used in homes and cars.

Inventories in Yokohama, Nagoya and Osaka ports jumped 15 percent to 363,200 metric tons as of Jan. 31 from 316,300 tons a month earlier, Tokyo-based Marubeni Corp. said today. That’s the highest since September 1998, when they reached 401,000 tons, said Marubeni, Japan’s top importer of the light metal.

Stockpiles increased after Japan’s economy shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, amid an unprecedented collapse in exports and production. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker, will slash domestic production 54 percent in the current quarter as demand plunges in the U.S. and Japan.

“We may see a steeper decline in aluminum shipments for January than we saw in December,” Koji Iida, a spokesman for the Japan Aluminium Association, said by phone. “It’s worse not only for domestic demand but also for exports because of the surging yen.”

Japan’s shipments of rolled aluminum products tumbled 22 percent in December, the biggest drop since April 1981, as demand slumped because of accelerated production cuts by carmakers and machinery companies. Shipments fell to 142,976 tons from 182,566 tons a year earlier, the Japan Aluminium Association said Jan. 28. It was the third straight monthly decline.

The yen advanced 18 percent against the dollar in the past year and traded at 91.57 to the dollar at 11:50 a.m. in Tokyo.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jae Hur in Singapore at jhur1@bloomberg.net





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Copper Leads Base Metals Lower in Asia on Demand Concerns

By Glenys Sim

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Copper led industrial metals lower in Asia on concerns a contracting Japanese economy and continued weak signs from U.S. manufacturers will further damp demand for raw materials.

The metal, used in electrical wiring and pipes, dropped as stockpiles tallied by the London Metal Exchange gained to the highest since October 2003. Inventories in Shanghai also rose last week to the most since October 2008.

“The optimism we saw last week is fading as news flow continues to be bad,” Zeng Chao, an analyst at Everbright Futures Co., said in an e-mail today. “The large build up of stockpiles is also hanging over investors’ heads.”

London Metal Exchange copper fell as much as 2.3 percent to $3,350 a metric ton and traded at $3,373 as of 10:57 a.m. in Singapore, extending last week’s 3.1 percent decline. Copper for May delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slid as much as 3.8 percent to 27,350 yuan ($4,002) a ton, before trading at 27,710 yuan.

Declining equities also weighed on investor sentiment, said Zeng. Most Asian stocks fell as Japan’s economy shrank the most since 1974 and Group of Seven finance chiefs said the economic slowdown will persist through most of 2009.

Seventeen of 26 analysts, investors and traders, or 65 percent, surveyed by Bloomberg News said copper would drop this week, as reduced industrial production in the U.S. signals lower demand from automakers and other manufacturers.

Among other LME-traded metals, zinc fell 0.7 percent to $1,145 a ton, lead lost 1.8 percent to $1,149.50, nickel dropped 0.7 percent to $10,250. Aluminum was little changed at $1,376 a ton as of 10 a.m. in Singapore.

-- Editors: Richard Dobson, Indranil Ghosh

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at Gsim4@bloomberg.net





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Tokyo Steel Reduces March Product Prices, Extends Output Cuts

By Masumi Suga and Yoshifumi Takemoto

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Japan’s largest maker of girders, said it will reduce product prices for March contracts and extend production cuts into April

Prices will drop by between 3,000 yen ($33) a metric ton and 10,000 yen a ton, Managing Director Naoto Ohori said at a media briefing in Tokyo today. The company will extend its 50 percent production cuts for January to March into April, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Masumi Suga in Tokyo at msuga@bloomberg.net; Yoshifumi Takemoto in Tokyo at ytakemoto@bloomberg.net.





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Gold Declines as Demand Falters After Rally to Six-Month High

By Glenys Sim

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Gold dropped a second day in Asia as investor demand diminished after the metal’s rally last week to more than $950 an ounce, the highest in six-months.

Bullion climbed to $952.92 an ounce on Feb. 12, the highest since July 22, as the global financial crisis prompted investors to seek gold as a store of value and demand rose for haven assets.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a little bit of a correction but that would be a good buying opportunity because I think it will be over a $1,000 an ounce within a few months’ time,” said Philip Klapwijk, chairman of London-based consultant GFMS Ltd.

Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.6 percent to $936.33 an ounce, before trading at $937.95 at 9:47 a.m. in Singapore. Gold for April delivery was down 0.4 percent at $938.70 in after-hours electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. market is closed today for a holiday.

Still, gold may gain for a second straight week as the banking crisis and recession deepen, boosting the metal’s appeal as a store of value. Twenty-six of 32 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Tokyo to Chicago last week advised buying gold. The futures rose 3.1 percent last week.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position by 5 percent in New York gold futures in the week ended Feb. 10, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 163,622 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Inflation Outlook

December-delivery gold in Tokyo was little changed at 2,771 yen a gram ($940 an ounce), while Shanghai gold for June delivery slid 0.3 percent to 205.19 yuan a gram ($934 an ounce) at the same time.

Economic stimulus plans by governments around the world were likely to drive inflation, increasing demand for gold as a hedge, according to John March, technical analyst at Superior Gold Group.

“With all the money we’re spending, I don’t have any doubt that we have inflation in our future, and if they keep stimulating until they see inflation, by the time that stimulus gets all the way through, we could see even hyper inflation,” March said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Among other precious metals for immediate delivery, silver fell 0.8 percent to $13.585 an ounce, platinum dropped 0.5 percent to $1,059.50 an ounce, and palladium declined 1.4 percent to $213.50 an ounce as of 9:50 a.m. in Singapore.

-- With reporting by Pham-Duy Nguyen in New York. Editors: Wendy Pugh, Richard Dobson

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at Gsim4@bloomberg.net





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Crude Oil Trades Near $38 on Concern Global Demand Is Slowing

By Christian Schmollinger and Gavin Evans

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded little changed near $38 a barrel in New York on speculation the recession in the world’s largest economies will slash demand for fuel and energy.

Japan’s economy, the world’s largest oil consumer after the U.S. and China, contracted the most since 1974 in the fourth quarter, a government report showed today. OPEC will likely cut production again next month if prices remain below $40, Iran’s representative, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, said yesterday.

Gross domestic product “is sliding, jobs are being lost, manufacturing going down and this just reinforces the feeling that demand will be bad,” said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. “We can’t expect a recovery in demand anytime soon.”

Crude oil for March delivery was at $37.50 a barrel, down 1 cent, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:15 p.m. in Singapore. It earlier rose as much as 43 cents to $37.94 a barrel.

The contract jumped 10 percent to $37.51 a barrel on Feb. 13, its first gain in six days and the largest daily increase since Jan. 21, as traders who had been betting on further declines bought oil to limit losses during the three-day Presidents’ Day holiday weekend in the U.S. Pit trading on Nymex will be closed today.

The March contract expires on Feb. 20. The April contract dropped 23 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $41.74 a barrel in the sixth straight decline.

Economic Downturn

Japan’s gross domestic product contracted at an annual 12.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter 2008, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. That followed a 13.9 percent drop in exports from the third quarter.

Global economic data “are firmly pointing in the same direction,” said Gerard Burg, energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “With demand where it is, the market may well still be over-supplied.”

The Group of Seven nations said the “severe” downturn will persist through 2009 and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn predicted a “second wave” of nations will ask for emergency cash as state finances crumble.

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker, will slash domestic production 54 percent in the current quarter as demand plunges in the U.S. and Japan.

Contango Structure

Brent crude oil for April settlement was at $44.69 a barrel, down 12 cents, on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange at 12:12 p.m. Singapore time. It fell 30 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $44.51 on Feb. 13.

New York oil futures have fallen 75 percent from a record $147.27 reached in July and declined 10 percent this month. Stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, have risen for the past seven weeks and are at their highest since July 2007, according to Energy Department records.

The price of oil for delivery in April is $4.19 a barrel higher than for March. December futures are up $15.02 from the front month, versus $19.89 yesterday. This structure, in which the future month’s price is higher than the one before it, is known as contango, allowing buyers to profit from hoarding oil.

The build in supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark grade, is stored, has contributed to the contango. Inventories there climbed 1.7 percent to 34.9 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said on Feb. 11. It was the highest since at least April 2004, when the department began keeping records for the location.

Reduced Net-Longs

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Feb. 10, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 16,578 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions fell by 12,698 contracts, or 43 percent, from a week earlier.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps 40 percent of the world’s oil, last week cut its 2009 oil demand forecast for a sixth straight month, citing a “sudden and massive” drop in consumption.

It fixed a daily production ceiling of 24.845 million barrels from Jan. 1 for its 11 members with quotas, taking its cuts since September to 4.2 million barrels a day.

Venezuela will support oil quota cuts if they are necessary, Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said in Caracas yesterday.

The long delay between the imposition of the cuts and their impact in markets makes it hard to gauge whether enough oil has been taken out of the market, National Australia’s Burg said.

Prices seem “pretty comfortable in a high-$30s, low $40s kind of range,” which may reflect the increase in oil production costs in recent years, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net; Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.





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Puncak, Gamuda Slide on Possible Water Bid Rejection

By Chan Tien Hin

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Puncak Niaga Holdings Bhd. and Gamuda Bhd. tumbled in Kuala Lumpur trading on concern the Selangor state government’s 5.2 billion ringgit ($1.4 billion) bid for their water assets was too low.

Shares of Puncak dropped 7.4 percent to 2.89 ringgit at 10:58 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur trading, set for the biggest decline since Oct. 23. It’s the worst performer on the benchmark Composite Index, which fell 0.4 percent. Gamuda slid 5.2 percent to 1.99 ringgit, the second-biggest decliner.

The Malaysian state government offered 3.1 billion ringgit for water assets that Puncak owns and 2.06 billion ringgit for Gamuda Bhd.’s facilities, the two companies said on Feb. 13. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd. said in a report today Puncak and Gamuda may reject the bids because they don’t adequately compensate for the loss of future earnings.

“We think the offers are unlikely to be accepted,” said Vincent Khoo, an analyst at Maybank Investment. “The saga could be long-drawn as all parties are likely to return to the negotiation table again.”

A rejection of the bids may delay efforts by the country’s richest state to take over the assets and operations of water companies in March and revamp the industry to prevent water shortages. The state government offered to take over the water assets without assuming any liabilities and the companies must respond to the offer by Feb. 20.

Water Shortages

Puncak ChairmanRozali Ismail couldn’t immediately comment as he was preparing to leave the office, his secretary said. Vincent Lim, a spokesman for Gamuda, was unable to comment. Lin Yun Ling, Gamuda’s managing director, didn’t immediately reply to an e-mail seeking comment.

Selangor may face water shortages by 2014 unless it restructures the “inefficient, fragmented” industry, Chief Minister Khalid Ibrahim said last month. The state government would be able to upgrade services without increasing prices should all four companies accept the offer, the government said in a separate statement on Feb. 11.

Malaysia needs to spend as much as 50 billion ringgit over the next three decades to upgrade aging infrastructure and improve services, according to the government. Under a national reorganization plan, the government plans to buy all the water assets in Peninsular Malaysia.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chan Tien Hin in Kuala Lumpur at thchan@bloomberg.net; Angus Whitley in Kuala Lumpur at awhitley1@bloomberg.net


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Hong Kong Stocks Decline as G-7 Chiefs See Prolonged Slump

By Patrick Rial

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong stocks retreated after Group of Seven finance chiefs predicted the global economic slump will persist through most of this year and Japan’s economy contracted at the fastest pace in 35 years.

Bank of East Asia Ltd., Hong Kong’s third-biggest bank by assets, lost 4.6 percent ahead of an earnings announcement due tomorrow. Melco International Development Ltd. slumped 6.3 percent after saying it will likely report a “substantial loss” for 2008.

The Hang Seng Index dropped 262.59, or 1.9 percent, to 13,292.08 as of 11:08 a.m. local time. The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks so-called H-shares, declined 1.9 percent to 7,424.96.

“There are slight signs of a recovery in China and related areas, but the rest of the world still seems to be slowing,” said Yoji Takeda, who manages about $1.1 billion at RBC Investment (Asia) Ltd. in Hong Kong. “You cannot deny the possibility that stocks will break through last year’s lows.”


The Hang Seng Index has slumped 7.5 percent this year. The gauge dropped 48 percent in 2008, the steepest annual decline since the oil shock in 1974, as the credit crisis dragged the world’s biggest economies into recession.

Bank of East Asia dropped 4.6 percent to HK$15.48. The company will report almost no profit in 2009, according to a report last week from Morgan Stanley.

‘Difficult’ 2009 Seen

HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank, lost 3.2 percent to HK$59.05. Hang Seng Bank Ltd., a unit of HSBC, dropped 4 percent to HK$85.20.

Hong Kong banks face a difficult year as lending slows and demand for investment products weakens in an economy that is moving deeper into its first recession since 2003, the city’s defacto central bank said on Feb. 13.

“2009’s operating environment will inevitably be difficult,” Y.K. Choi, deputy chief executive officer of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, told reporters at a briefing on Feb. 13. “Some banks may see red.”

Melco tumbled 6.3 percent to HK$2.07. The company controlled by the son of Macau gaming tycoon Stanley Ho expects to report a “substantial loss” for 2008 following a collapse in global stock markets and a slowdown in Macau gambling.

All but three stocks on the Hang Seng Index slumped. February futures dropped 1.5 percent to 13,330.

The following stocks rose or fell. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names.

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (2600 HK) lost 2.5 percent to HK$4.22. Rio Tinto Group investors have encouraged BHP Billiton Ltd. to restart a takeover bid after Aluminum Corp. of China, the nation’s biggest producer of the metal, agreed to invest $19.5 billion in debt-laden Rio, the Sunday Telegraph said.

China Mengniu Dairy Co. (2319 HK) jumped 4.1 percent to HK$10.58. The country’s biggest liquid-milk producer said China’s health and food safety regulators found that use of a substance in one of its premium-brand milk products isn’t harmful to human health.

To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net.


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Japan’s Insurance Stocks Advance; Takefuji Slumps on Forecast

By Masaki Kondo

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s insurance and utility shares rose after the sharpest economic slowdown in more than three decades drove investors to safe-haven stocks. Takefuji Corp. paced declines among companies forecasting lower earnings.

Tokio Marine Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest nonlife insurer, jumped 5.4 percent even after cutting its profit forecast by 88 percent as losses on securities swelled. Tokyo Gas Co., Japan’s largest natural-gas supplier, added 2.9 percent. Takefuji, Japan’s No. 3 consumer lender by value, plunged 7.9 percent after reversing its forecast to a full-year loss. Japan’s gross domestic product shrank at an annualized 12.7 percent rate in the three months to Dec. 31, the most since the 1974 oil shock.

The Topix index climbed 4.66, or 0.6 percent, to 769.25 as of 12:47 p.m. in Tokyo, with more than two stocks gaining for each that slumped on the gauge. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 21.50, or 0.3 percent, to 7,757.90.

“Defensive shares are being bought in part because of the awful GDP number,” said Yoshinori Nagano, a senior strategist at Daiwa Asset Management Co., which oversees about $96 billion. “It’s hard to bet on whether the global economy will start recovering later this year.”

Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers will confront a “severe” economic downturn that will persist for most of 2009, they said after a meeting in Rome on Feb. 14. Gross domestic product fell for a third-straight quarter in the period ended Dec. 31, Japan’s Cabinet Office said today, as the global recession weighed on exports. The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an 11.6 percent contraction.

‘Awful’ Numbers

“The numbers today were pretty awful,” Ed Rogers, chief executive officer of Tokyo-based hedge fund adviser Rogers Investment Advisors Y.K., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Japan’s economic figures were “a reflection on not just the situation in Japan but the global situation.”

Tokio Marine climbed 5.4 percent to 2,255 yen, while Aioi Insurance Co. leapt 6.5 percent to 393 yen. Nipponkoa Insurance Co. added 3.8 percent to 730 yen. A gauge of insurance companies gained the most among 33 industry groups on the Topix.

“Third-quarter results did not present large negative surprise,” Makarim Salman, an analyst for Macquarie Group Ltd., wrote in a note on Japanese insurers dated today. “Dividends were maintained and earnings downgrades when they did occur were due to pre-flagged valuation losses.”

Defensive Shares

Tokyo Gas added 2.9 percent to 395 yen. Chubu Electric Power Co., Japan’s third-largest utility, added 2.8 percent to 2,385 yen. West Japan Railway Co., the nation’s third-largest rail operator, climbed 4.3 percent 362,000 yen. Insurers, utilities and railways are among so-called defensive companies, whose profits are relatively insulated against an economic slowdown.

Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Japan’s largest drugstore operator, soared 9.1 percent to 1,917 yen. The company’s net income jumped 32 percent to 5.7 billion yen ($62 million) in the nine months to Dec. 31, buoyed by efforts to trim costs on advertising, according to a filing with the exchange on Feb. 13.

Takefuji sank 7.9 percent to 582 yen. The company said on Feb. 13 it will have a net loss of 264.1 billion yen in the year ending March 31 as claims to return overpaid interest surged. It earlier forecast a yearly profit. Central Glass Co. slipped 5.5 percent to 310 yen after reversing its full-year forecast to a net loss.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.


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Asian Finance, Material Stocks Drop as Japan’s Economy Shrinks

By Shani Raja

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian finance and materials stocks fell as Japan’s economy shrank the most since 1974 and Group of Seven finance chiefs said the economic slowdown will persist through most of 2009. Technology shares advanced.

Takefuji Corp., a consumer lender, sank 7.8 percent after reversing a profit forecast to a loss and as a government report showed Japan’s gross domestic product to slump 12.7 percent in the fourth quarter. BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia’s largest steelmaker, fell 4.2 percent after raising less than expected in a share sale. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s second- largest maker of mobile-phones, rose 1 percent, after saying it aims to increase its market share.

“There’s no magic potion we can all drink and cure the ills that the global economy has at the moment,” said Tim Schroeder, who helps manage A$4 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “The evidence shows any pick-up is going to be muted, and that profitability is not going to recover meaningfully for some time. The momentum is still downwards.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 81.73 at 11:38 a.m. in Tokyo. Twenty stocks dropped for every 19 that advanced. The gauge has lost 8.8 percent this year, extending 2008’s record 43 percent tumble, as the credit crisis dragged the world’s biggest economies into recession.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.2 percent to 7,763.03. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index lost 2 percent. Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.6 percent.

Brambles Ltd., the world’s biggest supplier of pallets used to move and store goods, slumped 9.2 percent in Sydney as first- half profit declined.

Shrinking Economy

Takefuji dropped 7.8 percent to 583 yen. Pioneer Corp., which last week forecast a record loss, slumped 9.2 percent to 129 yen.

Japan’s economy contracted the most since the 1974 oil shock, according to figures from the Cabinet Office, with gross domestic product falling for a third-straight quarter. The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an 11.6 percent contraction.

Brambles lost 9.2 percent to A$5.81 as the slump in first- half profit prompted the company to cut operations in the U.S. and eliminate 750 jobs.

The G-7’s finance ministers and central bankers said in a statement released after talks in Rome on Feb. 14 that they were working to restore confidence in markets and revive the world economy. They predicted the full effect of individual rescue packages will “build over time.”

Samsung Electronics

The policy makers met after reports last week showed Germany’s economy contracted the most in 22 years in the fourth quarter and U.S. consumer confidence neared its lowest since 1981.

BlueScope fell 4.2 percent to A$3.19. The company raised A$113 million ($74 million) from a stock sale to existing shareholders. BlueScope Steel said Dec. 10 it wanted to raise A$250 million.

Samsung Electronics gained 1 percent to 516,000 won. The company said it aims to increase its market share to at least 20 percent this year on higher sales in emerging markets and by focusing on more expensive models.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.


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