Japan Jan. Aluminum Shipments Tumble Most in 28 Years

By Aya Takada

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s shipments of aluminum rolled products plunged by the most in 28 years as carmakers and electronics equipment producers slashed purchases.

Shipments to the domestic and exports markets fell 31 percent to 122,193 metric tons in January from 176,301 tons a year earlier, the Japan Aluminium Association said in a statement today. It was the fourth straight month of decrease and the largest decline since November 1980.

Japan headed for its worst postwar recession in January as manufacturers cut production by an unprecedented 10 percent and consumers slashed spending. The nation’s exports plunged a record 45.7 percent last month as demand also slumped in the U.S. and the European Union.

“Demand from almost all the industrial sectors declined in January,” Koji Iida, an association spokesman, said today in Tokyo. “The situation is still worsening this month.”

Japan’s month-on-month decline in factory output in January exceeded December’s record decline of 9.8 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Household spending fell 5.9 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in more than two years.

Toyota Motor Corp., Japan’s biggest automaker, slashed global output last month by the most in more than two decades as the recession and a credit crunch decimated demand for new cars.

Toyota’s output fell 43 percent to 413,285 vehicles in January. Honda Motor Co.’s production dropped 33 percent to 226,551 vehicles and Nissan Motor Co.’s slid 54 percent to 145,286 units, the companies said separately Feb. 25.

The members of Japan Aluminium Association include Furukawa- Sky Aluminum Corp., Kobe Steel Ltd. and Nippon Light Metal Co. Details of output, shipments and inventories are as follow:

==============================================================

Jan ‘09 Dec ‘08 Jan/Dec Jan Y/Y

==============================================================

(%) (%)

OUTPUT 117,261 144,175 -18.7 -32.1

Flat-rolled 65,262 83,747 -22.1 -34.1

Extruded 51,999 60,428 -13.9 -29.3

SHIPMENTS 122,193 142,976 -14.5 -30.7

Flat-rolled 70,223 82,571 -15.0 -32.1

Extruded 51,970 60,405 -14.0 -28.7

INVENTORY 86,883 92,335 -5.9 +7.9

Flat-rolled 75,788 80,744 -6.1 +8.7

Extruded 11,095 11,591 -4.3 +2.6

===========================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo at atakada2@bloomberg.net

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Indian Farmers May Increase Sugar Cane Area on Prices

By Pratik Parija

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Farmers in India, the world’s second- biggest sugar producer, may increase the area planted with sugar cane because of higher prices, helping the South Asian nation to lower its dependence on imports.

“Farmers are getting paid better prices,” farm secretary T. Nanda Kumar told reporters in New Delhi today. “Obviously there will be a little more interest in sugar cane.”

A bigger crop may help the world’s largest consumer overcome a shortfall in production of the sweetener. Raw sugar has gained 18 percent since January in New York on forecasts the country may become a net importer for the first time since 2006.

Output in the year ending September may total 16.5 million tons from 26.4 million last year, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar has said. That may lead to imports of 2 million tons in the 12-month period, Pawar said this week.

The nation’s sugar cane output may drop 17 percent to 290.5 million tons in the year to June as farmers shift to grains, the farm ministry said Feb. 12.

Separately, India’s wheat production, second only to that of China, may be 77.8 million tons, Kumar said, reiterating a farm ministry forecast early this month. That compares with a record 78.6 million tons last year.

Condition of the standing crop is good because of favorable night temperatures, Kumar said.

Wheat, sowed in October, is harvested in March and April.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pratik Parija in New Delhi at pparija@bloomberg.net.

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Noble Offers $200 Million for Gloucester Coal Shares

By Jesse Riseborough and Luzi Ann Javier

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Noble Group Ltd., a Hong Kong-based commodity supplier, offered A$310 million ($200 million) in cash for the shares it doesn’t own in Australia’s Gloucester Coal Ltd. to thwart a rival bid for control from Whitehaven Coal Ltd.

Noble, owner of a 21.7 percent stake, offered A$4.85 a share for the rest of Sydney-based Gloucester, the company said today in a statement. That’s 22 percent more than the implied value of Gloucester’s shares under the Whitehaven transaction, based on yesterday’s close, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Whitehaven shareholders would control 67 percent of the merged company under the earlier proposal, which Noble said is a reverse takeover and undervalues the target. The Asian company in 2007 helped block a A$391 million takeover of Gloucester by Xstrata Plc, the world’s biggest exporter of power-station coal.

Noble “are obviously looking to preserve their interest and maybe have bigger plans for the group,” said Tom Sartor, a mining analyst at ABN Amro Morgans Ltd. “Whether Xstrata is in the mood to possibly enter the fray again I’m not sure. They’d be the logical one to come back and consider it.”

Gloucester rose 26 percent to A$4.91 at 2:33 p.m. Sydney time on the Australian stock exchange, as Noble fell 1.8 percent to S$1.07 in Singapore. Noble’s offer values Gloucester at A$396 million. Before today, the Australian company’s stock slumped 52 percent over the past 12 months.

‘Reasonable Price’

“It’s a reasonable price, given that Gloucester’s share price has fallen a lot,” said Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, an analyst at ABN Amro Asia Securities (Singapore) Pte. The acquisition “will increase Noble’s presence in the coal market. Long-term prospects for coal are very strong.”

Gloucester, being advised by UBS AG, told shareholders to take no action on the Noble bid pending a study of the proposal, according to a statement today. Gloucester offered 1 share for every 2.45 Whitehaven shares on Feb. 20. Noble’s stake in the combined company would fall to 7 percent should the takeover be completed, UBS AG said on Feb. 20.

“Noble’s offer creates competition for the control of Gloucester,” William Randall, a director of Noble’s energy unit, told reporters today on a conference call. “It’s important to note that our offer does not exclude other interested parties, including Whitehaven, from making a superior offer.”

Noble has approval from Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board to gain 100 percent control of Gloucester, Randall said on the call. Noble also “has the funds available” for the bid, according to the statement.

‘Serious Concerns’

It will also lodge an application with Australia’s Takeover Panel today to “overturn the restrictive measures” in Gloucester’s agreement with Whitehaven, he said. Noble said Feb. 24 statement it has “serious concerns” about the agreement, saying the offer “prevents any possible contest for control.”

Whitehaven directors, representing 74 percent of the stock, plan to accept the Gloucester bid, according to a statement last week. Closely held U.S.-based mining investment company, AMCI Inc. holds 9.9 percent in Gloucester and 33 percent of Whitehaven, with both marketing coal for Gloucester.

Noble has not had any contact with Gloucester shareholders, Randall said. Gloucester Chief Executive Officer Rob Lord last week declined to comment on whether Noble was aware of the bid.

Gloucester yesterday reported a record first-half profit of A$44 million on gains in coal prices. It owns two mines in Australia’s Gloucester Basin, Stratford and Duralie. Noble said the same day that profit last year more than doubled to a record.

Noble is the largest customer of Gloucester, buying about 25 percent of its output, Randall said on the call.

Contract prices for energy coal more than doubled to a record last year as demand from Asia jumped and bottlenecks at Australian ports curbed supply growth. Prices may drop about 36 percent to $80 a ton for the year from April 1 on the deepening global recession, Merrill Lynch analysts led by Tom Price said in a Feb 9 report. That’s still the second-highest on record.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net; Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net

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Copper Declines After U.S. Home Sales Plunge, Pares Weekly Gain

By Li Xiaowei

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Copper dropped in Asian trading, paring weekly gains, amid concern that a worsening global recession will cut demand for the metal used in pipes and wires.

U.S. sales of new houses fell 10 percent in January to an annual pace of 309,000, the lowest since data began in 1963, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. U.S. is the world’s second-largest copper consumer after China.

The housing data “shows the U.S. economy is still on a downward track, and its pressure on metals market remains pervasive,” analysts led by Tan Wentao at HNA Topwin Futures Co. wrote in an e-mailed report today.

Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange fell as much as 2.4 percent to $3,415 a metric ton before trading at $3,434 a ton at 1:33 p.m. in Shanghai. The metal has gained more than 8 percent this week, after dropping for the previous two weeks.

May-delivery copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was unchanged at 27,820 yuan ($4,067) after swinging between gains and losses.

Still, copper inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell by the most in four months yesterday and volumes scheduled to be taken out of warehouses, known as canceled warrants, jumped to the highest in a year.

“The inventory changes could constrain the magnitude of copper’s slide,” Chen Yonglin, an analyst at Citic Calyon Futures Co., said by phone from Shanghai.

London aluminum fell as much as 1.1 percent to $1,349 a ton before trading at $1,355 at 1:32 p.m. in Shanghai. The metal, used in buildings and car parts, has added almost 4 percent this week after falling for the previous two weeks.

Japanese Automakers

Output by Japan’s 12 automakers fell 41 percent to 576,539 vehicles in January from a year earlier as a recession damped domestic and export demand, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said today.

Japan’s shipments of aluminum rolled products tumbled 31 percent in January, the biggest drop since November 1980, as demand deteriorated because of accelerated production cuts by carmakers and electronics equipment producers.

Among other LME-traded metals, zinc slid 0.5 percent to $1,132, lead fell 2.1 percent to $1,022, nickel lost 1.3 percent to $9,925 and tin declined 0.9 percent to $10,850.

To contact the reporter for this story: Li Xiaowei in Shanghai at xli12@bloomberg.net

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Gold Heads for First Loss in Three Weeks on Scrap, Equities

By Claire Leow

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold dropped for a fifth day, heading for its first decline in three weeks, on concern scrap supplies were increasing while its safe harbor status was being eroded by rising Asian equities.

“We would not be surprised to see gold under further pressure in coming days,” said UBS AG. Parts of the gold market are “in a decidedly weak position -- notably the complete absence of jewelry demand and reports of refineries full and busy converting scrap,” it said in a report.

Gold for immediate delivery declined as much as 0.9 percent to $937.34 an ounce, and traded at $941.09 at 11:04 a.m. in Singapore. That’s 6.5 percent below the 11-month high of $1,006.29 reached a week ago.

“With equity markets looking less dreadful and with leveraged investors on Comex pretty long gold,” bullion “is vulnerable to profit taking,” UBS said. Investors that borrowed to bet on gains in gold will face increasing margin calls as bullion drops, possibly forcing some to sell.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.9 percent to 75.24, lifting it off a five-and-a-half year low this week. Gold climbed 7 percent this year as the index plunged 16 percent.

Gold for April delivery was little changed at $941.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:28 a.m. Singapore time, after a 2.4 percent drop yesterday. Investment buying of the metal has slowed, UBS said.

Exchange Fund

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, advanced for the first time in five days, reaching a record 1,029.29 tons yesterday. The amount in the trust had stayed unchanged at 1,028.98 tons since Feb. 19.

Silver fell for a fifth day, losing 0.4 percent to $13.0850 an ounce at 11:19 a.m. Singapore time. The metal remains the best performer on the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Index of 26 contracts, up 20 percent this year.

Platinum dropped 0.8 percent to $1,045 an ounce at 10:32 a.m. Singapore time, heading for its first weekly decline in six as it tracks gold lower. The metal is used more in catalytic converters for cars than in jewelry or for investment. Palladium was little changed at $196.75 an ounce.

To contact the reporter for this story: Claire Leow in Singapore at cleow@bloomberg.net

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Crude Oil Falls, Snapping Three-Day Gain, as Recession Deepens

By Christian Schmollinger

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell in New York, paring this week’s increase to 14 percent, on signs the global recession is deepening after Japan’s manufacturers cut production by a record pace.

Oil snapped a three-day rally as Japanese data showed the world’s third-biggest user of crude is headed for its worst postwar recession. Oil gained earlier this week after a U.S. government report showed a drop in gasoline stockpiles and OPEC members called for further cuts in output.

“You’ve got to keep an eye on the bigger picture and these key economic data are still disappointing,” said Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. “Refinery rates are running at low levels even on a seasonal basis, so it’s natural that you’ll get drawdowns in supplies.”

Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as 86 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $44.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $44.59 a barrel at 1:55 p.m. Singapore time.

Futures rose $2.72, or 6.4 percent, to $45.22 a barrel yesterday, the highest settlement since Jan. 26. Crude oil is poised for a 7.1 percent gain this month.

Brent crude oil for April settlement declined as much as 45 cents, or 1 percent, to $46.06 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $46.23 a barrel at 1:30 p.m. Singapore time.

Gasoline Consumption

Japan’s month-on-month decline in factory output exceeded the December record drop of 9.8 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Household spending fell 5.9 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in more than two years.

Companies are slashing jobs at a faster pace in the U.S., a report yesterday showed. The Labor Department said 667,000 Americans filed initial applications for jobless benefits last week, up from 631,000 the prior week.

U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 9 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, up 1.7 percent from a year earlier, this week’s Energy Department report showed. The department measures shipments from refineries, pipelines and terminals to calculate demand.

“You’ve got to be careful with the gasoline demand figures,” said ANZ’s Pervan. “If you’re looking at it from an implied point of view where you include changes in stocks, it can be skewed if those stocks are drawing down because of lower refinery capacity.”

U.S. refiners operated at 81.4 percent of their capacity in the week ending Feb. 20, down 0.9 percent from the previous week.

Gasoline supplies fell 3.32 million barrels last week, the biggest reduction since September, a report from the Energy Department showed this week.

Gasoline Draw

“The big draw caught everyone off guard,” said Jonathan Kornafel, director for Asia at options traders Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “The rally may be a bit overdone and that’s why you’re seeing crude selling off today.”

U.S. retail gasoline prices were at $1.882 a gallon on Feb. 25, according to AAA, the nation’s biggest motoring organization. That’s down from $3.16 a gallon a year ago. Fuel cost an average of $1.616 on Dec. 30.

The increase in U.S. gasoline demand is driven “100 percent by the reduction in price,” said Hudson Capital’s Kornafel. “It took sustained lower prices before you started to see a tiny tick up in demand. But I think the market is so starved for any sort of highlight in demand that it’s enough to send the market higher.”

OPEC Cuts

U.S. oil imports dropped 0.3 percent to 8.77 million barrels a day, the lowest since the week ended Sept. 18, when ports were shut in the aftermath of hurricanes Gustav and Ike, the report showed. OPEC members have cut production and reduced shipments in an effort to increase prices.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce crude-oil shipments by 1.7 percent in the month ending March 14, according to Oil Movements. Members will load 22.8 million barrels a day in the period, down from 23.2 million a day in the month ended Feb. 14, the Halifax, England-based based tanker tracker said.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. will cut exports of crude oil in April. The United Arab Emirates state-owned producer will ship 17 percent less of Upper Zakum crude oil than contracted, following a 15 percent reduction for March, the company said yesterday. Deliveries of Umm Shaif, Lower Zakum and Murban crude will be cut by 15 percent.

Iran, Venezuela and Iraq said last week that OPEC is prepared to lower production again when the group meets on March 15. Ecuadorian Oil and Mines Minister Derlis Palacios said yesterday that no additional reduction was needed.

“As long as we stay below $50 a barrel, OPEC is going to cut between 500,000 and 1 million barrels a day,” said Hudson Capital’s Kornafel. “They’ve proved themselves. They’ve followed through on the cuts and that is clear.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.

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South Korea Stocks Raised to ‘Overweight’ at JPMorgan

By Chen Shiyin

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- South Korean stocks were raised to “overweight” at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which said a strengthening of the won will draw funds into the equity market.

Investors should hold more of the nation’s shares than are represented in Asian and global emerging market benchmark indexes, compared with an earlier rating of “underweight,” analysts led by Adrian Mowat, JPMorgan’s chief Asian and emerging markets strategist, wrote in a Feb. 26 report. The brokerage has a “trading target” of 1,250 for the Kospi index, 19 percent higher than yesterday’s close.

The Kospi has dropped 5.5 percent this year, adding to a 41 percent plunge in 2008, the first decline in six years. The index has lost 49 percent in U.S. dollar terms since August 2006, the month that JPMorgan first started rating the market “underweight.” That’s more than a 40 percent slump in the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index during the same period.

“The expectation of a reversal in the combination of short positions in the Korean won and the large consensus underweight in the equity market is driving our” recommendation, the analysts wrote. “This is a trading call as we continue to believe that structural issues with the Korea economy are likely to cap growth.”

The Kospi rose 0.8 percent today in Seoul trading, after gaining as much as 2.1 percent.

The won is at 1,540.70, after falling 39 percent in the past year, the worst performer among 10 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The currency may strengthen to 1,400 against the dollar by the end of March and climb to 1,200 by end-2009, JPMorgan forecast.

Contraction

The slump in the won so far comes as the government forecasts the economy to shrink about 2 percent this year, the first contraction since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Finance Minister Yoon Jeung Hyun this month pledged to increase stimulus spending, adding to 51 trillion won ($34 billion) already allocated to tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

“There are significant fundamental risks to our call,” the analysts wrote. “A high private sector debt to GDP ratio limits the effectiveness of monetary policy to stimulate growth; this results in the economy’s high dependence on external demand.”

SK Telecom Co., KT&G Corp., Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., S-Oil Corp. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. are among “defensive” companies recommended by JPMorgan, which said these companies offer liquidity earnings visibility and a sustained dividend.

Korea Electric Power Corp., South Korea’s biggest utility, and the nation’s banks, are also among companies that will benefit from a stronger won, the report said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net.

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Japan Stocks Rise on Factory Output Report; Glassmakers Slump

By Masaki Kondo and Satoshi Kawano

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose, heading for a weekly gain, as a factory output report stoked speculation steelmakers will be able to ramp up production.

JFE Holdings Inc., Asia’s second-largest steelmaker, climbed 5.7 percent after a government report showed manufacturers expect production will rebound in March. Game maker Nintendo Co. added 2.3 percent in Osaka trading after the weaker local currency boosted its earnings outlook. Asahi Glass Co. and Nippon Electric Glass Co. dropped at least 4.6 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG cut their ratings.

“The government report confirmed manufacturers cut output and reduced inventory to match demand,” said Hiroaki Osakabe, a fund manager at Chiba-Gin Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $1 billion in Tokyo. “This is a tailwind for manufacturers and steelmakers.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 87.70, or 1.2 percent, to 7,545.63 as of 12:43 p.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index added 9.21, or 1.2 percent, to 751.74. The Nikkei is set for a 1.7 percent gain on the week and a 5.7 percent tumble in February. The Topix has gained 1.7 percent in its first weekly advance in four, and lost 5.3 percent in the month.

The daily value of stocks traded in Tokyo has stayed below the 12-month average since Jan. 7. As of yesterday, Nikkei members traded at an average 71 times estimated net income for this year, the highest level since May 2003, as companies cut profit forecasts faster than share prices declined.

Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said yesterday he’s ordered a study into ways to bolster the nation’s stocks, moving the government closer to buying equities. The Nikkei touched a 26-year low this week as the world’s second-largest economy heads for its worst postwar recession.

Factory Output

Japan’s Trade Ministry today said businesses expect production will rebound 2.8 percent in March after falling 8.3 percent this month. Factory output dropped by a record 10 percent in January from the previous month, the ministry said.

JFE surged 5.7 percent to 2,120 yen, while Nippon Steel Corp., the world’s No. 2 producer of the alloy, climbed 3.6 percent to 260 yen. Kobe Steel Ltd. added 3.5 percent to 118 yen.

Kubota Corp., Asia’s biggest tractor maker, fell 4.5 percent to 466 yen after its president said the company may have to trim its dividend next fiscal year owing to “astonishingly bad” profit. Kubota was the fourth-biggest loser on the Nikkei.

Nintendo, which sells four times more Wii game machines in the Americas than in Japan, climbed 2.3 percent to 28,200 yen in Osaka. Canon Inc., the world’s No. 1 digital-camera maker, added 2.2 percent to 2,505 yen, and Fanuc Ltd., the biggest maker of industrial robots globally, rose 2.2 percent to 6,470 yen.

The yen depreciated to as much as 98.71 yesterday, the weakest level since Nov. 10, from 97.80 at the close of stock trading in Tokyo yesterday. A weaker yen boosts the value of repatriated overseas sales for Japanese companies.

Asahi Glass

Asahi Glass, Asia’s largest glassmaker, sank 4.6 percent to 434 yen, while Nippon Electric Glass dived 6 percent to 642 yen. Credit Suisse lowered its ratings on the companies to “underperform” from “neutral.”

Nikkei futures expiring in March added 1.5 percent to 7,540 in Osaka and gained 1.4 percent to 7,545 in Singapore.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net; Satoshi Kawano in Tokyo at skawano1@bloomberg.net.

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China’s Stocks Fall, Set for Worst Weekly Performance This Year

By Zhang Shidong

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks dropped, driving the benchmark index to its worst weekly drop this year, as commodity producers slumped on concern the global recession will damp demand for raw materials and batter profits.

Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., China’s fourth-largest listed steelmaker, lost 4.5 percent after saying income probably dropped 71 percent last year. Angang Steel Co. fell 4.7 percent after Macquarie Group Ltd. lowered its rating on the stock. Gold producer Zijin Mining Group Co. slid by the 10 percent daily limit, paring its annual advance to 61 percent, after bullion prices fell for a fourth day.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s stock exchanges, fell 36.66, or 1.7 percent, to 2,084.60 as of 1:11 p.m., paring its 2009 gain to 15 percent. The measure is down 7.8 percent this week, the biggest drop since the five days to Dec. 26, and the second straight weekly loss.

“Share prices have really risen too fast this year and funds are now switching from those that gained the most,” said Fan Dizhao, an investment manager at Guotai Asset Management Co. in Shanghai, overseeing the equivalent of $4.7 billion.

The CSI 300 Index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, declined 2.4 percent.

The Shanghai Composite, the world’s best performer this year, remains up 4.8 percent this month, on speculation government spending plans, five interest rate cuts since September and record bank lending will help the world’s third- largest economy weather the global recession.

The rally lured Chinese investors at the fastest pace in more than a year. Investors opened 484,510 new share trading accounts last week, according to the nation’s clearing house, the most since the five days to Jan. 25, 2008, and more than four times the levels recorded last month.

‘Asset Bubble’

Still, concern such gains are unsustainable has dragged the Shanghai Composite down 13 percent from a five-month high reached on Feb. 16. China faces an “asset bubble” if credit growth is not matched by an increase in investment opportunities, chief economist Ha Jiming at China International Capital Corp. said in a note yesterday.

Maanshan Steel dropped 4.5 percent to 3.59 yuan. The steelmaker said 2008 profit probably fell 71 percent because of higher raw material and fuel costs as well as a drop in the value of inventories.

Angang Steel, China’s second-largest steelmaker by market value, lost 4.7 percent to 7.52 yuan. The stock was cut to “underperform” from “outperform” at Macquarie Group Ltd., which cited uncertainties over demand and earnings.

Excess Capacity

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation’s biggest maker of the lightweight metal and also called Chalco, lost 8.7 percent to 9.19 yuan. Yunnan Aluminium Co., the fifth-largest producer of the light metal, slid 8.8 percent to 5.94 yuan, paring its annual advance to 31 percent.

Aluminum capacity in China may exceed output by 51 percent this year as a result of expansion in the sector, according to research company CBI China Co.

Zijin Mining Group, China’s largest gold producer, retreated the 10 percent daily limit to 7.75 yuan. Zhongjin Gold Corp., the No. 2, fell 8.5 percent to 47 yuan. Gold futures for April delivery fell 2.4 percent to $942.60 an ounce in New York yesterday.

Gold is expensive relative to other commodities, Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said in an interview today.

The Shanghai Composite lost 3.9 percent yesterday in part on speculation regulators would restrict financial companies’ investments in equities. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission, the nation’s insurance watchdog, denied the speculation market after the close.

The following companies were among the most active in China’s markets. Stock symbols are in brackets after companies’ names.

Airlines: China Southern Airlines Co. (600029 CH), the nation’s biggest carrier by fleet size, tumbled by the 10 percent daily cap to 4.40 yuan. China Eastern Airlines Corp. (600115 CH), the nation’s third-largest carrier by fleet size, plunged 10 percent to 4.76 yuan.

The two airlines won approval to sell new stock to their state-controlled parents after securing government bailouts to help pare debts. Issuing new shares usually dilutes the value of a company’s existing stock.

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co. (600418 CH), China’s second biggest light-truck maker, slumped 10 percent to 3.92 yuan. Net income fell 82 percent last year from 328 million yuan in 2007, said the company in a preliminary earnings statement.

Xi’an Aircraft International Corp. (000768 CH), a Chinese maker of plane parts, tumbled 10 percent to 19.38 yuan. The company said 129.5 million shares will emerge from lock-ups today, or shares that were restricted from trading.

To contact the reporter on this story: Zhang Shidong in Shanghai at szhang5@bloomberg.net

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Saint Ossie Resisted Madoff as Credit Suisse Man Savior for UBS

By Elena Logutenkova and Ben Holland

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Oswald Gruebel spotted the U.S. subprime debacle early and even saw Bernard Madoff coming. Now, he’s got to clean up after people who showed less foresight.

Those calls at Credit Suisse Group AG earned Gruebel the moniker “Saint Ossie” and made him as respected in Switzerland as Marcel Ospel, UBS AG’s former chairman, is despised.

Yesterday, the 65-year-old Gruebel ended two years of retirement for an even tougher task: saving the bank he competed against for 37 years. As the new head of UBS, he’ll have to fix a financial institution burdened by more than $50 billion in losses and writedowns, $106 billion of withdrawals from the wealth management business and a lawsuit by the U.S. government accusing UBS of helping customers evade taxes.

“It’s going to be a bit harder to turn around UBS than it was Credit Suisse,” says Patrick Lemmens, who helps manage about 10 billion euros ($12.7 billion) in assets at Robeco Group in Rotterdam. “The stock price increase today is a compliment to Gruebel of course, but it’s a bit premature.”

UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank, rose 16 percent to 11.74 francs in Swiss trading, the most in three months, as investors bet that Gruebel can restore profitability at a bank that posted a loss of 19.7 billion francs ($17 billion) last year, the biggest in Swiss history.

Zurich-based UBS spent more than a month persuading Gruebel to accept the chief executive officer job. In the end, it was the scale of the challenge that sealed the deal, he says.

“It took a lot of convincing, but they finally did,” Gruebel said in an interview yesterday. “I believe very strongly in our country as a financial center, and I also believe very strongly that we need two big banks. UBS is a great challenge.”

Rehired by Bank

It isn’t the first time Gruebel has been called out of retirement to revamp a Swiss bank. In 2002 when Credit Suisse’s insurance unit Winterthur was losing money on investments as stock markets tumbled, the bank brought back Gruebel just a year after a power struggle at the company forced him out. He returned the unit to profitability and then sold it.

“He’s not a consensus guy who’ll have endless meetings and then agree on some low-ball soft solution,” said Beat Wittmann, who knows Gruebel after spending more than a decade through 2007 on the board of Credit Suisse’s wealth manager Clariden Bank. Gruebel “ruffled some feathers, but he didn’t care, and at the end of the day only success counts. And he was successful.”

Gruebel ran Credit Suisse jointly with John Mack -- now head of Morgan Stanley -- starting in 2003. In the three years after he took over as sole CEO in 2004, he doubled the bank’s profit and share price.

Half a Century

Gruebel’s financial career spans almost half a century, and today he is widely known in Switzerland as Saint Ossie. A Google search turns up dozens of references to him with that nickname, including in the Wall Street Journal and Forbes magazine.

Born in the eastern part of Germany during World War II, he was orphaned before his first birthday. He crossed into West Germany with his grandmother on foot at the age of 10 to live with relatives. On the advice of a grandfather, he abandoned an ambition to study engineering and joined Deutsche Bank AG in 1961 as a 17-year-old trainee straight out of school.

He moved to Credit Suisse White Weld Ltd. as a Eurobond trader in 1970. By 1991 he had become Credit Suisse’s head of global trading. That background will help him free UBS of unprofitable investments, his former colleague Wittmann says.

“Traders at least know when to cut their losses and have no problem doing so,” he says. “If some banks, UBS too, had done that earlier, they would be in much better shape.”

Madoff Warning

Under Gruebel’s leadership, Credit Suisse started cutting its exposure to U.S. subprime mortgage bonds in 2006, when UBS was still buying them, according to disclosure from both companies. UBS eventually booked losses and writedowns of more than $50 billion in the current financial crisis, compared with $15.3 billion at Credit Suisse, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

After a meeting with Madoff in New York in June 2000, Gruebel advised Credit Suisse customers to pull funds out of Madoff’s firm because he couldn’t figure out how it made money, according to three people familiar with the situation.

Financial regulators in Luxembourg on Feb. 25 criticized UBS for a “grave breach” of oversight in its role as custodian bank for funds linked to Madoff. UBS rejected the charge, saying it wasn’t responsible for safekeeping of the funds.

Gruebel hasn’t got everything right. In an interview with Handelszeitung at the end of October, he predicted that markets were close to bottoming out and would rise at least 30 percent over the following six to nine months. Morgan Stanley World Index has fallen 20 percent since then, and Swiss Market Index has slumped 22 percent.

A Cost Cutter

Cutting expenditures was another Gruebel hallmark at Credit Suisse. Any bankers who wanted fresh flowers in the office should pay themselves, he told executives there in a 2002 memo. He once told senior managers to keep the cost of Christmas dinner down to 100 francs a head.

“Given the current business climate in many of our markets, further substantial cost reductions will be inevitable,” he told UBS employees in an e-mail yesterday. UBS has already announced plans to trim its workforce by 11,000 to 75,000 by the end of this year, and Gruebel said that further job cuts can’t be ruled out. He will be paid a base salary of 3 million francs, the bank said.

He also told UBS staff that the bank’s most important task is “to regain the trust of our clients and other stakeholders.”

Competing With Protege

“If there’s anyone who can do that, it’s Mr. Gruebel,” said David Herro, who owns about 0.6 percent of UBS’s outstanding shares in the $8 billion portfolio he runs at Harris Associates LP in Chicago. Gruebel stands out because of “his proactivity and intolerance for incompetence and poor results -- he definitely had distinct objectives, and you were held accountable.”

At UBS, Gruebel will be competing with his former protege Brady Dougan, another ex-trader who now runs Credit Suisse. There are signs it will be a friendly rivalry. Credit Suisse said yesterday it supports “the continued presence of two globally active banks in Switzerland” and is “pleased to see Oswald J. Gruebel appointed to this role.”

Still, for an executive to cross over from one of Switzerland’s two banking giants to the other is rare enough to look like a distress call, said Alois Pirker, a Boston-based senior analyst at Aite Group LLC, a financial research firm.

U.S. Problems

“Reaching out to Gruebel shows just how severe the problems have become at UBS,” said Pirker. “UBS has used up its leadership team. Gruebel knows the Swiss banking model best and so represents both a new start and an old hand.”

A key challenge facing Gruebel is in the U.S., where UBS sought to expand under Ospel and ran into legal trouble, according to analysts, including Sanford C. Bernstein’s Dirk Hoffmann-Becking.

Last week the U.S. sued UBS to force disclosure of as many as 52,000 customers who allegedly concealed wealth from tax authorities, a day after the bank agreed to pay $780 million and disclose the names of hundreds of account holders. Swiss media including Tages-Anzeiger described the deal as the beginning of the end for the country’s tradition of bank secrecy.

“The issue isn’t gone and we have to concentrate on that,” Gruebel said. “I’ll be involved very much in trying to solve that.”

Gruebel’s first retirement was announced by Credit Suisse in 2001 and lasted about a year. The second came in 2007, when he stepped down as Credit Suisse CEO after doubling profit in three years. Yesterday Gruebel, who enjoys fast cars when he’s not working and has driven Aston Martins, Porsches and a Mercedes-AMG with a hand-built engine, said he aims to achieve a similar improvement at UBS before he bows out for a third time.

“We want to bring the company back to profitability that’s acceptable for our stakeholders,” he said. “After we’ve done that I think I can go back to enjoying life.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Elena Logutenkova in Zurich at elogutenkova@bloomberg.net; Ben Holland in Istanbul at bholland1@bloomberg.net.

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Allianz, Deutsche Telekom, EnBW, Fuchs: German Equity Preview

By Nadja Brandt

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of companies whose shares may have unusual price changes in Germany. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are from the previous close.

The X-DAX Index dropped 1.5 percent to 3,866.5. The measure, derived from trading in DAX Index futures, provides an estimate of Germany’s benchmark index. The DAX climbed 2.5 percent to 3,942.62.

Allianz SE (ALV GY): Europe’s biggest insurer by market value plans to hold its analyst day. Chief Executive Officer Michael Diekmann said Thursday the insurer remains “financially stable.” The shares increased 12 percent to 55.25 euros.

Daimler AG (DAI GY): The world’s second-largest maker of luxury cars plans to release its annual report. The shares added 2.7 percent to 18.90 euros.

Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE GY): Europe’s biggest telephone company plans to report fourth-quarter results. The company may report a profit after a net loss a year earlier, when it had one-time costs to cut jobs, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Separately, the company named Timotheus Hoettges as finance chief and said it will combine its German fixed-line and mobile- phone divisions. The shares advanced 4.6 percent to 9.48 euros.

Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG (EBK GY): Germany’s third- largest utility plans to report final full-year results. The company in February said net income fell 36 percent last year to 872 million euros ($1.1 billion). The shares dropped 0.3 percent to 35.40 euros.

Fuchs Petrolub AG (FPE GY): Germany’s largest maker of lubricants plans to release fourth-quarter results. The company in December said full-year profit will be lower than in 2007 as customers reduce inventories in response to the global economic slump. The shares dropped 1.1 percent to 26 euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nadja Brandt in Los Angeles at nbrandt@bloomberg.net

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Asian Stocks Advance, Paring Worst Start to Year Since 1990

By Shani Raja

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, helping the regional benchmark index pare its worst start to a year since 1990, as brokerages upgraded technology companies and a weaker yen boosted Japanese exporters’ earnings prospects.

LG Display Co., the world’s second-largest maker of liquid crystal displays, jumped 5.3 percent after Goldman, Sachs & Co. raised its share-price target. Game maker Nintendo Co. added 3.1 percent in Osaka as the yen traded at the weakest in more than three months against the dollar. Woolworths Ltd., Australia’s biggest retailer, lost 4.4 percent on lower-than-expected profit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 50 percent drop in the past year has cut price-to-equity ratios by 13 percent.

“There are bright spots and some valuations are tempting,” said Tim Schroeder, who helps manage about $2.6 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “But the outlook is not rosy. There’s a great degree of uncertainty about the future.”

MSCI’s Asia Pacific measure rose 1.2 percent to 75.45 as of 1:28 p.m. in Tokyo, narrowing its February drop to 7.1 percent and its 2009 decline to 16 percent. Stocks have fallen as the global recession battered earnings at companies from Toyota Motor Corp. to BHP Billiton.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1.3 percent to 7,555.95, paring its drop this month to 3.8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index rose 1.9 percent.

Telstra Corp., Australia’s biggest phone company, lost 3.3 percent as Citigroup Inc. recommended investors sell the stock. QBE Insurance Group Ltd., the country’s No. 1 property and casualty insurer, slumped 4.2 percent after posting second- half earnings that were unchanged from a year earlier. Kubota Corp., Asia’s largest tractor maker, slumped 2.7 percent in Tokyo after saying it may cut its dividend payment.

Obama Budget

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.3 percent, following the gauge’s 1.6 percent decline yesterday. President Barack Obama delivered his first budget to Congress yesterday, which seeks standby authority for as much as $750 billion in new aid to the financial industry while laying plans for a health-care system overhaul.

Governments worldwide including the U.S., China and Australia have this year sought to introduce measures to ease the financial crisis. The Obama administration may require Citigroup Inc. to raise private capital and make changes to its board of directors as part of an effort to strengthen the bank, according to people familiar with the matter.

LG Display climbed 5.3 percent to 25,850 won. Goldman, Sachs & Co. raised its share-price target by 15 percent to 29,500 won, saying panel prices are continuing their rebound in February.

Weaker Yen

Panasonic Corp., the world’s largest consumer-electronics maker, rose 2.5 percent to 1,166 yen. The stock was upgraded to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse Group AG, which cited the company’s efforts to cut costs and develop environment-friendly technologies.

Nintendo, which sells four times more of its Wii game machines in the Americas than in Japan, climbed 3.1 percent to 28,410 yen as the weaker yen boosted the value of repatriated overseas sales. Canon Inc., the world’s No. 1 digital-camera maker, jumped 3.5 percent to 2,535 yen.

The yen depreciated to as much as 98.71 yesterday, the weakest level since Nov. 10, from 97.80 at the close of stock trading in Tokyo yesterday.

In latest signs the global recession is worsening, Japan’s Trade Ministry said the country’s manufacturers slashed production by an unprecedented 10 percent last month. U.S. government reports showed yesterday that new home sales tumbled 10 percent last month, while first-time claims for jobless benefits jumped to the highest level since 1982.

‘Astonishingly Bad’

Woolworths declined 4.4 percent to A$26.77. First-half net income of A$983.3 million ($634 million) was lower than the A$1.001 billion median estimate of six analysts Bloomberg News surveyed by telephone and e-mail.

Telstra lost 3.3 percent to A$3.56 after Citigroup cut its recommendation on the stock to “sell” from “hold” on concern the carrier may be excluded “permanently” from building a nationwide high-speed Internet network.

QBE dropped 4.2 percent to A$19.17 after it said second- half profit was unchanged as foreign-exchange gains and underwriting profits cushioned losses on equity investments.

Kubota lost 2.7 percent to 475 yen. The company is considering reducing its dividend payment next business year by as much as 30 percent because of “astonishingly bad” profit numbers, President Yasuo Masumoto said.

To contact the reporter for this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.

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Lloyds, William Hill, Charter: U.K., Irish Equity Preview

By Thomas Biesheuvel

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of companies whose shares may have unusual price changes in U.K. and Irish markets today. Stock symbols are in parentheses and prices are from the last market close.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index rose 66.66, or 1.7 percent, to 3915.64. The FTSE All-Share Index advanced 1.7 percent, and Ireland’s ISEQ Index slipped 0.1 percent.

Charter Plc (CHTR LN): Europe’s biggest maker of welding gear is scheduled to report earnings. The shares fell 2.25 pence, or 0.6 percent, to 369 pence.

Davis Service Group Plc (DVSG): The owner of Sunlight linen hire is scheduled to report earnings. The shares rose 4.75 pence, or 2.1 percent, to 228.25 pence.

Grafton Group Plc (GN5 ID): Ireland’s largest supplier of building materials is scheduled to report earnings. The shares rose 2 euro cents, or 1.6 percent, to 1.34 euros.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY LN): The U.K. lender that took over HBOS Plc last month is scheduled to report earnings. The shares advanced 17.6 pence, or 31 percent, to 75 pence.

Rightmove Plc (RMV LN): The owner of the U.K.’s largest residential-property Web site is scheduled to report earnings. The shares rose 7.5 pence, or 3.75 percent, to 207.5 pence.

Serco Group Plc (SRP LN): The U.K. services company that operates London’s Docklands Light Railway is scheduled to report earnings. The shares slipped 7.5 pence, or 1.8 percent, to 403.75 pence.

St. Modwen Properties Plc (SMP LN): The U.K. property company that’s redeveloping former steelworks and car factories is scheduled to report earnings. The shares gained 2.25 pence, or 2.5 percent, to 91.5 pence.

William Hill Plc (WMH LN): The U.K.’s second-biggest bookmaker is scheduled to report earnings. The shares rose 5.75 pence, or 2.4 percent, to 246.75 pence.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tom Biesheuvel in London tbiesheuvel@bloomberg.net.

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Allianz, Grupo Ferrovial, Thales: European Equity Preview

By Nadja Brandt

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes in European trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are from the previous close.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 added 2.2 percent to 176.14. Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index climbed 2.4 percent to 1,811.34. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index, a benchmark for the nations using the euro, decreased 2.8 percent to 2,021.14.

Acciona SA (ANA SM): The Spanish builder will report yearly earnings before the market opens. Shares climbed 2.35 euros, or 3.1 percent, to 79 euros.

Allianz SE (ALV GY): Europe’s biggest insurer by market value plans to hold its analyst day. Chief Executive Officer Michael Diekmann said the insurer remains “financially stable.” The shares increased 12 percent to 55.25 euros.

Daimler AG (DAI GY): The world’s second-largest maker of luxury cars plans to release its annual report. The shares added 2.7 percent to 18.90 euros.

Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE GY): Europe’s biggest telephone company plans to report fourth-quarter results. The company may report a profit after a net loss a year earlier, when it had one- time costs to cut jobs, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Separately, the company named Timotheus Hoettges as finance chief and said it will combine its German fixed-line and mobile- phone divisions. The shares advanced 4.6 percent to 9.48 euros.

Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG (EBK GY): Germany’s third- largest utility plans to report final full-year results. The company in February said net income fell 36 percent last year to 872 million euros ($1.1 billion). The shares fell 0.3 percent to 35.40 euros.

Grupo Ferrovial SA (FER SM): The Spanish builder that spent $20 billion buying BAA Plc is slated to report 2008 earnings before the market opens in Madrid. Shares climbed 72 cents, or 3.8 percent, to 19.92 euros.

Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana SA (IBLA SM): The Spanish carrier that’s studying a merger with British Airways Plc will report 2008 earnings before the market opens. Shares fell 4 cents, or 2.1 percent, to 1.87 euros.

Kudelski SA (KUD VX): The world’s largest maker of security cards for pay television operator reports 2008 earnings. The shares climbed 6.4 percent to 10.46 euros.

Sacyr Vallehermoso SA (SYV SM): The builder will report yearly earnings tomorrow. Shares climbed 31 cents, or 5.8 percent, to 5.68 euros.

Telecom Italia SpA (TIT IM): Italy’s largest phone company is scheduled to report 2008 results. Telecom Italia may say net income declined 11 percent to 2.17 billion euros, according to the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg News. The shares increased 8.1 percent to 96 euro cents.

Thales SA (HO FP): Europe’s largest defense-electronics maker said 2008 profit fell 35 percent after the year-earlier figure was boosted by gains from asset sales. The company forecast 2009 revenue may rise as much as 5 percent. The shares climbed 0.4 percent to 30.61 euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nadja Brandt in Los Angeles at nbrandt@bloomberg.net

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Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Crown Forex | Feb 26 09 08:45 GMT |

EURO Morning Report The pair once again declined towards the correction levels pointed out previously where it is still pressured to the downside where if reaches 1.2660 this may result in the formation of a bearish technical pattern with targets at 1.2420 and 1.2330 on the intraday if the neckline was successfully breached with a four hour close. The current support is at 1.2680 where if breached will open the way to retest the key support at 1.2660. High volatility may be witnessed near this level and our outlook can't be determined clearly and therefore we need to monitor 1.2680 – 1.2660 levels. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2420 and the key resistance at 1.3220 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2330 and 1.2100 Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Crown Forex | Feb 26 09 08:45 GMT | Technical Analysis for Major Currencies EURO Morning Report The pair once again declined towards the correction levels pointed out previously where it is still pressured to the downside where if reaches 1.2660 this may result in the formation of a bearish technical pattern with targets at 1.2420 and 1.2330 on the intraday if the neckline was successfully breached with a four hour close. The current support is at 1.2680 where if breached will open the way to retest the key support at 1.2660. High volatility may be witnessed near this level and our outlook can't be determined clearly and therefore we need to monitor 1.2680 – 1.2660 levels. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2420 and the key resistance at 1.3220 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2330 and 1.2100 Support: 1.2680, 1.26660, 1.2615, 1.2555, 1.2525 Resistance: 1.2770, 1.2805, 1.2895, 1.2945, 1.2995 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to sell the pair below 1.2660 with targets at 1.2525 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.2720 GBP Morning Report Yesterday's decline was sharp taking the pair near our downside targets at 1.4150. The downside intraday trend proved the significance of 1.4140 which has now become a pivot point on the short term showing possibilities that a bearish technical pattern may form with a neckline at the same support level and targets at 1.3500. This change in trend on the intraday and the expected decline on the short term will remain as far as 1.4295 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3850 and the key resistance at 1.4640 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3500 and 1.2960 Support: 1.4170, 1.4140, 1.4095, 1.4040, 1.3995 Resistance: 1.4295, 1.4375, 1.4400, 1.4425, 1.4475 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that it's good to sell the pair below 1.4295 with targets at 1.4140 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.4425 JPY Morning Report Trading remains to the upside as the pair continues to breach resistance levels one after the other currently targeting 99.45 on the intraday and above 101.00 on the short term. We expect this incline to remain with a four hour close above 97.90 or with a downside correction to 97.10 in an attempt to adjust momentum before rebounding back to the upside The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.35 and the key resistance at 99.45 The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.10 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60 Support: 97.45, 97.10, 96.75, 96.55, 96.15 Resistance: 97.90, 98.30, 98.85, 99.45, 99.75 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the pair with a four hour close above 97.90 with targets at 99.45 and stop loss with a four hour close below 96.55 CHF Morning Report After building a solid base above the key support of the ascending channel and with the support of positive signs on momentum indicators, the pair inclined to currently target the pivot point at 1.1715 which is the neckline for a possible bullish technical pattern with targets at 1.1920 and 1.1970. We expect the pair to target this level as far as 1.1620 – 1.1560 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1390 and the key resistance at 1.1970 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 with targets at 1.1970 and 1.2055 Support: 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1585, 1.1530 Resistance: 1.1740, 1.1785, 1.1825, 1.1885, 1.1920 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the pair with an hourly close above 1.1720 with targets at 1.1920 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.1630 CAD Morning Report The sharp incline witnessed yesterday helped the pair breach a critical resistance at 1.2530 to reach 1.2575 which is the 100% Fibonacci expansion. There is still a possibility for more appreciating during the intraday to 1.2685 – 1.2710 (the 161.8% and 176.4% Fibonacci levels respectively). The pair may face difficulties at 1.2575 which is the 100% expansion intersected with the key resistance for the minor descending channel. Confirmation of the intraday trend will be seen with a four hour close above 1.2575 yet failure of this will decline the pair to 1.2390 The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2235 and the key resistance at 1.2710 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1780 remains intact with targets at 1.2935 and 1.3065 Support: 1.2530, 1.2505, 1.2470, 1.2435, 1.2380 Resistance: 1.2600, 1.2635, 1.2660, 1.2685, 1.2710 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the pair with an hourly close above 1.2575 with targets at 1.2685 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.2505 Crown Forex disclaimer:The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk. Support: 1.2680, 1.26660, 1.2615, 1.2555, 1.2525 Resistance: 1.2770, 1.2805, 1.2895, 1.2945, 1.2995 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to sell the pair below 1.2660 with targets at 1.2525 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.2720 GBP Morning Report Yesterday's decline was sharp taking the pair near our downside targets at 1.4150. The downside intraday trend proved the significance of 1.4140 which has now become a pivot point on the short term showing possibilities that a bearish technical pattern may form with a neckline at the same support level and targets at 1.3500. This change in trend on the intraday and the expected decline on the short term will remain as far as 1.4295 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3850 and the key resistance at 1.4640 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3500 and 1.2960 Support: 1.4170, 1.4140, 1.4095, 1.4040, 1.3995 Resistance: 1.4295, 1.4375, 1.4400, 1.4425, 1.4475 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that it's good to sell the pair below 1.4295 with targets at 1.4140 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.4425 JPY Morning Report Trading remains to the upside as the pair continues to breach resistance levels one after the other currently targeting 99.45 on the intraday and above 101.00 on the short term. We expect this incline to remain with a four hour close above 97.90 or with a downside correction to 97.10 in an attempt to adjust momentum before rebounding back to the upside The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.35 and the key resistance at 99.45 The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.10 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60 Support: 97.45, 97.10, 96.75, 96.55, 96.15 Resistance: 97.90, 98.30, 98.85, 99.45, 99.75 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the pair with a four hour close above 97.90 with targets at 99.45 and stop loss with a four hour close below 96.55 CHF Morning Report After building a solid base above the key support of the ascending channel and with the support of positive signs on momentum indicators, the pair inclined to currently target the pivot point at 1.1715 which is the neckline for a possible bullish technical pattern with targets at 1.1920 and 1.1970. We expect the pair to target this level as far as 1.1620 – 1.1560 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1390 and the key resistance at 1.1970 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 with targets at 1.1970 and 1.2055 Support: 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1585, 1.1530 Resistance: 1.1740, 1.1785, 1.1825, 1.1885, 1.1920 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the pair with an hourly close above 1.1720 with targets at 1.1920 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.1630 CAD Morning Report The sharp incline witnessed yesterday helped the pair breach a critical resistance at 1.2530 to reach 1.2575 which is the 100% Fibonacci expansion. There is still a possibility for more appreciating during the intraday to 1.2685 – 1.2710 (the 161.8% and 176.4% Fibonacci levels respectively). The pair may face difficulties at 1.2575 which is the 100% expansion intersected with the key resistance for the minor descending channel. Confirmation of the intraday trend will be seen with a four hour close above 1.2575 yet failure of this will decline the pair to 1.2390 The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2235 and the key resistance at 1.2710 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1780 remains intact with targets at 1.2935 and 1.3065 Support: 1.2530, 1.2505, 1.2470, 1.2435, 1.2380 Resistance: 1.2600, 1.2635, 1.2660, 1.2685, 1.2710 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the pair with an hourly close above 1.2575 with targets at 1.2685 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.2505 Crown Forex disclaimer:The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk.

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Crown Forex | Feb 26 09 08:45 GMT |
Technical Analysis for Major Currencies
EURO

Morning Report The pair once again declined towards the correction levels pointed out previously where it is still pressured to the downside where if reaches 1.2660 this may result in the formation of a bearish technical pattern with targets at 1.2420 and 1.2330 on the intraday if the neckline was successfully breached with a four hour close. The current support is at 1.2680 where if breached will open the way to retest the key support at 1.2660. High volatility may be witnessed near this level and our outlook can't be determined clearly and therefore we need to monitor 1.2680 – 1.2660 levels. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2420 and the key resistance at 1.3220 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2330 and 1.2100

Support: 1.2680, 1.26660, 1.2615, 1.2555, 1.2525
Resistance: 1.2770, 1.2805, 1.2895, 1.2945, 1.2995

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to sell the pair below 1.2660 with targets at 1.2525 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.2720
GBP

Morning Report Yesterday's decline was sharp taking the pair near our downside targets at 1.4150. The downside intraday trend proved the significance of 1.4140 which has now become a pivot point on the short term showing possibilities that a bearish technical pattern may form with a neckline at the same support level and targets at 1.3500. This change in trend on the intraday and the expected decline on the short term will remain as far as 1.4295 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3850 and the key resistance at 1.4640 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3500 and 1.2960

Support: 1.4170, 1.4140, 1.4095, 1.4040, 1.3995
Resistance: 1.4295, 1.4375, 1.4400, 1.4425, 1.4475

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that it's good to sell the pair below 1.4295 with targets at 1.4140 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.4425
JPY

Morning Report Trading remains to the upside as the pair continues to breach resistance levels one after the other currently targeting 99.45 on the intraday and above 101.00 on the short term. We expect this incline to remain with a four hour close above 97.90 or with a downside correction to 97.10 in an attempt to adjust momentum before rebounding back to the upside The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.35 and the key resistance at 99.45 The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.10 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 97.45, 97.10, 96.75, 96.55, 96.15
Resistance: 97.90, 98.30, 98.85, 99.45, 99.75

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the pair with a four hour close above 97.90 with targets at 99.45 and stop loss with a four hour close below 96.55
CHF

Morning Report After building a solid base above the key support of the ascending channel and with the support of positive signs on momentum indicators, the pair inclined to currently target the pivot point at 1.1715 which is the neckline for a possible bullish technical pattern with targets at 1.1920 and 1.1970. We expect the pair to target this level as far as 1.1620 – 1.1560 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1390 and the key resistance at 1.1970 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 with targets at 1.1970 and 1.2055

Support: 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1585, 1.1530
Resistance: 1.1740, 1.1785, 1.1825, 1.1885, 1.1920

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the pair with an hourly close above 1.1720 with targets at 1.1920 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.1630
CAD

Morning Report The sharp incline witnessed yesterday helped the pair breach a critical resistance at 1.2530 to reach 1.2575 which is the 100% Fibonacci expansion. There is still a possibility for more appreciating during the intraday to 1.2685 – 1.2710 (the 161.8% and 176.4% Fibonacci levels respectively). The pair may face difficulties at 1.2575 which is the 100% expansion intersected with the key resistance for the minor descending channel. Confirmation of the intraday trend will be seen with a four hour close above 1.2575 yet failure of this will decline the pair to 1.2390 The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2235 and the key resistance at 1.2710 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1780 remains intact with targets at 1.2935 and 1.3065

Support: 1.2530, 1.2505, 1.2470, 1.2435, 1.2380
Resistance: 1.2600, 1.2635, 1.2660, 1.2685, 1.2710

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the pair with an hourly close above 1.2575 with targets at 1.2685 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.2505

Crown Forex

disclaimer:The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk.
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