Economic Calendar

Saturday, September 10, 2011

AOL Said to Discuss Deal With Yahoo Advisers

By Brett Pulley and Douglas MacMillan - Sep 10, 2011 3:47 AM GMT+0700

AOL Said to Discuss Deal With Yahoo Advisers After Bartz

AOL Inc. signage is displayed outside the company's headquarters building in New York. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Kedrosky, author of the Infectious Greed blog and a Bloomberg contributing editor, talks about the possibility of a merger between AOL Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. AOL Chief Executive Officer Tim Armstrong is talking with advisers to Yahoo to gauge its interest combining the companies, according to two people familiar with the matter. Kedrosky speaks with Emily Chang and Cory Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg West." (Source: Bloomberg)

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Jordan Rohan, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., talks about the outlook for Yahoo! Inc. Rohan speaks with Betty Liu and Jon Erlichman on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)

Tim Armstrong, chief executive officer of AOL Inc. Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/Bloomberg




AOL Inc. (AOL) Chief Executive Officer Tim Armstrong is talking with advisers to Yahoo! Inc. to gauge its interest in combining the companies after the ouster of CEO Carol Bartz, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Armstrong is discussing options for a combination aimed at strengthening the two Internet companies, said the people, who wouldn’t be identified because the talks aren’t public. He has talked with private equity firms and investment bankers from Allen & Co. working with Yahoo, one person said.

Armstrong had been interested in a merger with Yahoo last year and was rebuffed while Bartz was at the helm, one person said. Her departure prompted him to reconsider the option, and, under one scenario now being considered, Yahoo would acquire AOL and Armstrong would become CEO of the combined company, the person said.

Yahoo is unlikely to be interested in a deal for AOL at this time given the company’s losses and declining revenue, according to one person familiar with the matter. AOL’s market value is about $1.6 billion, while Yahoo’s is about $18.2 billion.

Graham James, a spokesman for AOL, and Kim Rubey, spokeswoman for Yahoo, declined to comment.

AOL and Yahoo have been struggling to compete against Internet companies such as Google Inc. (GOOG) and Facebook Inc. AOL has lost almost $800 million since it was spun off from Time Warner Inc. (TWX) in 2009. The Internet pioneer has struggled to make money from online advertising as its profitable dial-up Internet access business declines. AOL is also using Allen & Co. to consider its strategic options.

Yahoo’s Decline

Yahoo, the most-visited U.S. Web portal, fired Bartz on Sept. 6, after less than three years as CEO. Once an $80 billion company, Yahoo has fallen more than 80 percent as it lost Internet users and advertising revenue to Google and Facebook. Bartz was hired after Yahoo rejected a $47.5 billion offer from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) in 2008.

Yahoo has been working with Allen & Co. and UBS AG for some time, according to Charles Sipkins, a spokesman for Yahoo’s board.

AOL, based in New York, fell 82 cents, or 5.3 percent, to $14.72 at 4 p.m. on New York Stock Exchange. Sunnyvale, California-based Yahoo rose 4 cents to $14.48 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brett Pulley in New York at bpulley@bloomberg.net; Douglas MacMillan in San Francisco at Dmacmillan3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net; Peter Elstrom at pelstrom@bloomberg.net




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Greece Dismisses Default ‘Rumors,’ Says Country Committed to Bailout Pact

By Marcus Bensasson - Sep 10, 2011 1:14 AM GMT+0700

Greece Committed to ‘Full Implementation’ of Bailout

The main headquarters of the Greek Finance Ministry sit in Athens. Photographer: Kostas Tsironis/Bloomberg

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Vincent Truglia, managing director at Granite Springs Asset Management, talks about the likelihood of a possible default on Greek sovereign debt. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos dismissed “rumors” of a Greek default, saying the nation is committed to “full implementation” of the terms of a July agreement for a second aid package. Truglia speaks with Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television's "Fast Forward." (Source: Bloomberg)

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of Merk Investments LLC, talks about his decision to sell the euro. Merk also discusses Greece's sovereign debt crisis. He speaks with Matt Miller, Carol Massar and Peter Cook on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- German lawmaker Otto Fricke, the budget spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel's Free Democratic Party coalition partner, talks about political solutions to the Greek debt crisis. He speaks from Berlin with Owen Thomas on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)


Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos dismissed “rumors” of a Greek default, saying the nation is committed to “full implementation” of the terms of a July agreement for a second aid package.

“This isn’t the first time that this organized wave of rumors over Greece’s default has appeared,” Venizelos said in an e-mailed statement today. “This is a game that’s in bad taste, organized speculation that is directed against the euro region and the euro as a whole.”

Stocks sank and the euro slid to a six-month low against the dollar today as three German officials said that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is preparing plans to shore up banks should Greece default. Investors are concerned that Greece isn’t implementing austerity moves fast enough to get a sixth payment from last year’s 110 billion-euro ($151 billion) bailout.

Greece committed is to the “full implementation” of the decisions of a July 21 summit for a second aid package worth 159 billion euros, as well as “its obligations arising from its agreements with its institutional partners,” Venizelos said.

Greece this week pledged to accelerate measures pledged in return for international financing, with EU and International Monetary Fund officials due to return to Athens next week to resume a suspended review of the country’s fiscal performance.

Responses from banks invited to participate in a 50 billion-euro debt swap program that forms part of the July 21 agreement have been “very positive,” Petros Christodoulou, head of the country’s debt management office, said in a telephone interview today. The government is looking for financial institutions holding 90 percent of Greek government debt expiring up to 2014 to take part in the program.

To contact the reporter on this story: Marcus Bensasson in Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net.





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Copper Tumbles Most in a Month as Obama, Bernanke Fail to Boost Confidence

By Yi Tian and Agnieszka Troszkiewicz - Sep 10, 2011 1:04 AM GMT+0700

Copper tumbled the most in a month as President Barack Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke failed to boost investor confidence in the economy.

Global equities dropped as Bernanke stopped short of detailing new plans to boost growth in the world’s largest economy in a speech yesterday, making no reference to further asset purchases by the central bank. Obama called on Congress to pass a plan that would inject $447 billion into the economy. The U.S. is the world’s biggest copper consumer after China.

“Obama’s plan is just not convincing enough,” Matthew Zeman, a strategist at Kingsview Financial in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Bernanke also disappointed investors. A lot of risk assets are lower. We will have more downside in the copper market.”

Copper futures for December delivery declined 14.1 cents, or 3.4 percent, to close at $4.0025 a pound at 1 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest loss since Aug. 8. The metal slumped 3 percent for the week, the first decline in three weeks.

“There is residual disappointment in the market that QE3 has not been announced,” Stephen Briggs, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London, said by telephone today, referring to a third round of so-called quantitative easing. The “Obama job proposal was not earth-shattering, so perhaps slight disappointment there.”

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months dropped $294, or 3.2 percent, to $8,821 a metric ton ($4 a pound).

Aluminum, nickel, zinc, tin and lead also fell.

To contact the reporters on this story: Yi Tian in New York at ytian8@bloomberg.net; Agnieszka Troszkiewicz in London at atroszkiewic@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net



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Gold Futures Rally as World Economy, Debt Concerns Spur Demand for a Haven

By Debarati Roy - Sep 10, 2011 1:55 AM GMT+0700

Gold futures rose for the second straight day in New York as renewed concern that the Greek debt crisis will worsen and signs of a slowing global economy spurred demand for the metal as a store of value.

The MSCI All-Country World Index fell as much as 3.1 percent, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 3.1 percent after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government said it is preparing plans to shore up banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the terms of its aid package and defaults. President Barack Obama yesterday proposed a $447 billion plan to create jobs and boost the U.S. economy.

“The Greece problem is huge, and people also are skeptical about how much of Obama’s plan will be translated into action,” Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading, said in a telephone interview from Chicago. “Equities are tumbling, and the flight to safety has begun.”

Gold futures for December delivery gained $2, or 0.1 percent, to settle at $1,859.50 an ounce at 1:49 p.m. on the Comex in New York. This week, the price fell 0.9 percent after the metal surged to a record $1,923.70 on Sept. 6. After today’s close, the metal slid to $1,847.30 in electronic trading.

Budget-Cutting Plans

Obama, speaking before a joint session of Congress, demanded six times that lawmakers act “right away” on a plan that would boost spending on infrastructure, stem teacher layoffs and cut in half the payroll taxes paid by workers and small business owners. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers will discuss the tools they may need to use to aid the recovery at their meeting this month.

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Greece may have to leave the euro if it fails to press ahead with its budget- cutting plans.

Gold is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies. The metal has rallied 31 percent this year, outperforming global stocks, commodities and Treasuries.

Yesterday, CME Group Inc., the parent company of the Comex, raised the margin requirement for the Cleared OTC London Gold Forwards contract to $9,450 per contract, the same level as that for New York gold futures. The OCT contract had no trading volume or open interest, according to data on the CME website.

Silver futures for December delivery fell 90.6 cents, or 2.1 percent, to settle at $41.624 an ounce on the Comex. The price slid 3.4 percent this week, narrowing this year’s gain to 35 percent.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for October delivery declined $16.60, or 0.9 percent, to $1,837.90 an ounce. Palladium futures for December delivery retreated $26.70, or 3.5 percent, to $738.60 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in Mumbai at droy5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net




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Asian Currencies Decline on U.S. Economic Recovery, European Debt Concern

By Lilian Karunungan - Sep 10, 2011 5:36 AM GMT+0700

Asian currencies fell this week, led by slides in the Singapore dollar and India’s rupee, as a faltering U.S. recovery and Europe’s debt crisis prompted investors to favor safer bets than emerging-market assets.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index had its biggest weekly loss this year after global funds pulled $2.3 billion from shares in South Korea and Taiwan in the first four days of the week. Central banks in Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia held off from raising interest rates at policy reviews on Sept. 8 after the U.S. reported zero jobs growth for August. The European Central Bank also left borrowing costs unchanged and cut its growth forecasts for the region.

“The ECB seems to be quite worried about the slowdown in economic activity in Europe and that is casting a pall on risk sentiment globally,” said Nick Verdi, a Singapore-based currency strategist at Barclays Capital. “The U.S. labor market is very weak. Market participants were trying to weigh up whether the Fed will enact further monetary stimulus.”

The Singapore dollar fell 1.7 percent this week to S$1.2244 against its U.S. counterpart, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rupee weakened 1.7 percent to 46.5650, South Korea’s won dropped 2 percent to 1,084.10 and Malaysia’s ringgit declined 1.5 percent to 3.0095.

The Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most- active currencies excluding the yen, dropped 0.99 percent in the past five days, the most since the week ended Nov. 26.

U.S., Europe

Concern the U.S. economy will slip into a recession prompted President Barack Obama to unveil a $447 billion plan to Congress on Sept. 8 to create jobs through tax cuts and infrastructure spending. The ECB cut its 2011 growth forecast on Sept. 8 to 1.6 percent, from 1.9 percent, and its projection for 2012 to 1.3 percent from 1.7 percent.

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations, meeting yesterday in Marseille, France, said concerns about the future of a global economic recovery highlight the need for policy makers to support growth. They agreed to “take all necessary actions to ensure the resilience of banking systems and financial markets.”

The ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve may implement coordinated monetary-policy easing to tackle weak growth, Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a Sept. 7 note to investors. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke refrained from signaling plans for further stimulus in a speech on Sept. 8 in Minneapolis.

“Speeches made by Bernanke and Obama were in line with expectations, and not enough to surprise the market,” said Kim Sung Soon, a Seoul-based senior currency trader at the Industrial Bank of Korea. “The lingering uncertainty in global financial markets is putting downward pressure on the won.”


‘External’ Risks

South Korean President Lee Myung Bak said Sept. 8 that inflation may exceed the 4 percent target this year, adding it’s hard to find ways to curb consumer-price gains. The Bank of Korea kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.25 percent for a third month on Sept. 8 and said it may not be able to increase borrowing costs until “external” factors such as Europe’s debt crisis are under control.

The ringgit had its biggest weekly loss in a month after government data showed that Malaysia’s export growth moderated to 7.1 percent in July from 9.6 percent the previous month.

“Prolonged uncertainties in the financial markets, weakness in the labor market and the prevailing fiscal conditions in the advanced economies have heightened the downside risks and fragility of the global economy,” Bank Negara said in its policy statement on Sept. 8. “In the domestic economy, recent indicators point to slower growth in external demand.”

Export Slump

Taiwan’s dollar completed its biggest weekly decline since February, sliding 0.9 percent to NT$29.265 versus the greenback. The island’s overseas sales rose 7.2 percent in August from a year earlier, the least since they last declined in October 2009, the Ministry of Finance reported this week. Economists expected a 15.5 percent increase, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Elsewhere, the Philippine peso declined 0.7 percent to 42.438 per dollar and Thailand’s baht fell 0.5 percent to 30.07. China’s yuan lost 0.09 percent to 6.3882, while Indonesia’s dropped 0.8 percent to 8,588 from Aug. 26. Financial markets in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy were shut for a holiday in the week ended Sept. 2.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Sandy Hendry at shendry@bloomberg.net



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European Stocks Drop for First Week in Three as Banks Sink on Debt Concern

By Alexis Xydias - Sep 10, 2011 6:00 AM GMT+0700

European stocks fell for the first week in three amid concern policy makers won’t be able to stop the region’s sovereign debt crisis from growing and damaging the economic recovery.

Societe Generale SA and Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BCP) led a measure of European bank shares to the lowest since March 2009. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) and Barclays Plc (BARC) each sank 13 percent as 17 lenders were sued by the U.S. over the sale of mortgage-backed securities and interbank lending rates climbed.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 3.7 percent to 224.59 this past week as 18 of 19 industry groups declined. The gauge has plunged 23 percent since this year’s peak on Feb. 17 as economic data from the U.S. and Europe trailed forecasts and Standard & Poor’s downgraded America’s AAA sovereign-debt rating, citing political failure to reduce record deficits. The index is trading at 9.4 times the estimated earnings of its constituent companies, near the lowest valuation since March 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

There has been “a whirlwind of sovereign downgrades, collapsing economic data and stumbling politics across developed markets” in recent weeks, said Tim Price, chief investment director at PFP Group LLP in London. “Unsurprisingly, markets have suffered. We have gone from a consensus of muted recovery to one of possible double dip.”

Swiss Stocks Gain

National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European markets except Switzerland, where the Swiss National Bank intervened to weaken the franc. France’s CAC 40 declined 5.5 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slid 1.5 percent and Germany’s DAX plunged 6.3 percent. The Swiss Market Index (SMI) gained 1.3 percent, a third straight weekly advance.

The VStoxx Index (V2X), which measures the cost of protecting against a decline in shares on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, climbed 24 percent, the biggest gain in a month.

The Stoxx 600 tumbled 4.1 percent on Sept. 5 after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party suffered its fifth election loss this year as she faced criticism over the handling of the debt crisis.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Sept. 8 said threats to the euro region have worsened and inflation risks have eased. Planned rescue loans to Greece have been put in doubt as countries including Finland demand the country provide collateral in exchange for the funds.

Default Insurance

The cost of insuring against default on European financial companies rose to a record this week as the ECB comments added to concern lenders are finding it harder to access funding markets. Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt surged to an all-time high, signaling a 91 percent chance the nation will fail to meet debt commitments, after its economy shrank more than previously reported.

The rate at which London-based banks say they can borrow for three months in dollars climbed to the highest level in more than a year yesterday. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollar loans rose to the highest since August 2010, according to the British Bankers’ Association.

The Stoxx 600 Banks Index dropped 8.4 percent. Societe Generale, France’s second-largest lender, and BCP, Portugal’s second-biggest publicly traded bank by market value, fell 21 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

RBS, Britain’s biggest government-owned lender, and Barclays each fell 13 percent. The banks were among European, Asian and American lenders sued by the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency on Sept. 2 to recoup $196 billion spent on mortgage-backed securities bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Porsche Plunges

Porsche SE plunged 15 percent in the week and posted the worst decline in more than two years yesterday after saying efforts to combine with Volkswagen AG by the end of 2011 had failed because of pending lawsuits. Preferred shares of Volkswagen, Europe’s largest automaker, slid 5 percent.

Verbund AG tumbled 16 percent, the most since 2008, after Austria’s biggest power company cut its guidance for 2011 and gave a “cautious” outlook for next year.

YIT Oyj, Finland’s biggest builder, slid 17 percent after saying excessive levels of ammonia were found in residential units it built in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Novartis AG, the drugmaker based in Basel, gained 7.9 percent while Cie. Financiere Richemont SA, the world’s second- biggest luxury-goods company, climbed 6 percent. Investors bought Swiss exporters after the country’s central bank set a ceiling for the franc’s value against the euro. The Swiss currency tumbled 7.3 percent to 1.21 per euro, the biggest weekly drop since the creation of the single currency.

Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) jumped 27 percent, the most since 2008. The U.K. explorer behind West Africa’s biggest offshore discovery in a decade said an offshore find in French Guiana opened up a new hydrocarbon basin on the other side of the Atlantic.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexis Xydias in London at axydias@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net





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ECB Dealt a Blow as Executive Board Member Stark of Germany Steps Down

By Matthew Brockett and Jeff Black - Sep 9, 2011 10:47 PM GMT+0700

ECB's Juergen Stark Steps Down

Juergen Stark, an executive board member of the European Central Bank. Photographer: Michele Tantussi/Bloomberg

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Lacaille, chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors, talks about Juergen Stark's resignation from the European Central Bank’s Executive Board. Lacaille also discusses the euro-area debt crisis and investment strategies. He talks with Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television's "Last Word." (Source: Bloomberg)


Juergen Stark resigned from the European Central Bank’s Executive Board after protesting the bank’s bond purchases on a conference call earlier this week, said a euro-area central bank official familiar with the meeting.

During the Sept. 4 call, Stark, 63, expressed his strong opposition to the program, which was expanded last month when the ECB started buying Italian and Spanish bonds, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions are confidential. Stark was supported by the central banks of Austria and the Netherlands, the person said. The resignation of Stark, the ECB’s chief economist, is a blow to the bank, the official said, noting he is the second German ECB member after Axel Weber to leave over the bond program.

Stark’s resignation, less than two months before President Jean-Claude Trichet’s term ends, suggests policy makers are increasingly split over the best way to fight Europe’s debt crisis. The ECB’s bond purchases have also been opposed by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and his predecessor Weber, who earlier this year pulled out of the running to succeed Trichet.

“There is quite a severe row going on,” said Juergen Michels, chief euro-region economist at Citigroup Inc. in London. “It seems that it went too far.”

‘Personal Reasons’

The euro extended its decline after news of Stark’s possible resignation was first published. It traded at $1.3662 at 5:37 p.m. in Frankfurt, down 1.6 percent on the day.

Stark today informed Trichet that, “for personal reasons, he will resign from his position,” the Frankfurt-based ECB said in a statement. “Stark will stay on in his current position until a successor is appointed, which, according to the appointment procedure, will be by the end of this year.”

The German government will nominate Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Asmussen to replace Stark on the ECB’s six-member board, Germany’s N-TV reported, without saying where it got the information.

The ECB, which started its bond program in May last year when Greece’s fiscal crisis began to spread to other euro-area countries, has so far spent 129 billion euros ($176 billion) on the bonds of distressed governments in an attempt to lower their yields. While the ECB says it is trying to ensure the transmission of its interest rates, Stark told Bloomberg News on Aug. 18 that the purchases blur the line between monetary and fiscal policy.

No ‘Glowing Advocate’

“It’s generally known that I’m not a glowing advocate of these purchases,” Stark said. “I see the rationale. Our accommodative monetary policy isn’t being transmitted in certain regions. So it’s justifiable from a policy point of view. But there’s an important point -- we are also reducing interest rates for the sovereign. That’s where the problem is.”

Stark’s eight-year term was due to end on May 31, 2014. When he and Trichet depart, half of the ECB’s board will be new. Belgium’s Peter Praet joined in June. Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi will take the ECB’s helm on Nov. 1.

Trichet yesterday said the central bank has cut its growth forecasts for this year and next and reduced its assessment of inflation risks, opening the door for further stimulus measures. Stark is one of the ECB’s most ardent inflation fighters.

“Things do not look too good from outside, with a second German leaving the Governing Council to openly criticize the ECB after Weber,” said Laurent Bilke, a former ECB economist now working at Nomura International in London. “Good luck to Mario Draghi.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Brockett in Frankfurt at mbrockett1@bloomberg.net; Jeffrey Black in Frankfurt at jblack25@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net



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Crude Oil Drops Most in a Week as Euro Tumbles on European Debt Crisis

By Margot Habiby - Sep 10, 2011 3:10 AM GMT+0700

Oil dropped the most in a week in New York as the euro tumbled against the dollar on concern that Greece’s deteriorating debt crisis will lead to a default.

Oil fell 2 percent after Europe’s single currency declined to a six-month low and European bank and sovereign credit risk surged to all-time highs. A plan for jobs growth announced yesterday by President Barack Obama failed to boost confidence in the U.S., the world’s largest economy.

“The concerns out of Europe and the positive relationship between oil prices and the euro are the catalyst,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc., an energy advisory company in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “The euro is getting crushed and putting pressure on all our markets right now.”

Crude for October delivery dropped $1.81 to settle at $87.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose 0.9 percent this week, the third consecutive advance. Futures have fallen 4.5 percent this year.

Brent crude for October settlement declined $1.78, or 1.6 percent, to $112.77 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent’s premium to Nymex-traded West Texas Intermediate rose 3 cents to $25.53.

The euro fell 1.5 percent to $1.3669 at 3:23 p.m. in New York, the lowest level since February. A weaker euro and stronger dollar curb commodities’ appeal as an alternative to the U.S. currency. The euro has plummeted 3.8 percent this week.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is preparing plans to shore up German banks in the event Greece fails to meet the terms of its aid package and defaults, three coalition officials said.

Stark’s Resignation

Juergen Stark of Germany resigned from the European Central Bank’s Executive Board today after protesting the bank’s bond purchases on a conference call earlier in the week, said a euro area bank official familiar with the meeting. The purchase program was expanded last month when the ECB started buying Italian and Spanish bonds.

“When Stark stepped down, that signaled the possibility of more German opposition to bailing out Greece,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “Oil is pricing the increasing odds of demand destruction on the European concerns and following the president’s speech last night.”

Obama challenged Congress to pass a $447 billion jobs plan “right away” to boost spending on infrastructure, stem teacher layoffs and halve payroll taxes paid by workers and small- business owners. He addressed a joint session of Congress yesterday and campaigned for the plan today in Virginia.

U.S. Economy

The president’s remarks came after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday stopped short of outlining new plans to revive growth.

“Bernanke didn’t give any further insight into stimulus measures, and Obama’s speech has been received very tepidly, which continues to weigh on concerns about the U.S. economy,” said Matt Smith, a commodities analyst for Summit Energy Services Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.7 percent to 1,154.23 at 4:03 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.7 percent to 10,992.13.

Oil also declined on signals that Libya may export a crude- oil cargo this month for the first time since March from the country’s west. The holder of Africa’s biggest oil reserves is rebuilding production which plunged 97 percent during an armed conflict to depose ruler Muammar Qaddafi, based on Bloomberg News output estimates.

Libyan Exports

“There are two critical factors dominating the outlook for the oil markets at this time, what global economic developments are doing to demand and the prospects for a pickup in Libyan oil exports,” according to a report published today by Deutsche Bank analysts including Adam Sieminski, the company’s Washington-based chief energy economist.

An 80,000-metric-ton cargo of crude is being offered for shipment from the port of Mellitah this month, three people with direct knowledge of the transaction said yesterday. The oil, equal to 600,000 barrels, will be loaded from Sept. 15 to 17, the people said, declining to be identified because the consignment has yet to be publicly announced.

Oil also declined as the National Hurricane Center forecast that Tropical Storm Nate will move toward the Mexican coast, missing the biggest U.S. oil-producing region in the Gulf or Mexico. Nate was 150 miles (240 kilometers) west of Campeche, Mexico, at about 2 p.m. New York time.

Fourteen of 28 analysts, or 50 percent of those in a Bloomberg News survey, forecast oil prices will decline next week amid heightened concern that global economic growth is slowing. Seven respondents, or 25 percent, predicted prices will increase and seven estimated there will be little change. Last week, 50 percent of surveyed analysts projected a drop.

Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 597,732 contracts as of 3:24 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 790,112 contracts yesterday, 16 percent above the average of the past three months. Open interest was 1.5 million contracts.

To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net.



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Asia Stocks Slide on Concern U.S. Economy May Weaken, European Debt Crisis

By Shani Raja - Sep 10, 2011 6:34 AM GMT+0700

Asian stocks fell this week, snapping a fortnight of advance, as exporters dropped on speculation the world’s largest economy is headed toward recession and banks slid amid concern Europe may fail to contain its sovereign debt crisis.

Honda Motor Co., a carmaker with more than 40 percent of its revenue in North America, plunged 6.4 percent in Tokyo after a report showed the U.S. job market stalled in August. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) sank 2.9 percent in Sydney. HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Europe’s largest lender by market value, slumped 3.3 percent in Hong Kong after the cost of insuring against default on European sovereign and financial debt surged to records. Fanuc Corp. (6954) tumbled 15 percent after an industry group said growth in machine-tool orders slowed.

“It’s clear the U.S. economy needed more stimulus as there’s a limit to what monetary policy can do,” said Stephen Halmarick, Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management, which oversees about $150 billion. “There’s growing concern that the sovereign-debt crisis in the EU is now manifesting into a sharp slowdown in the economy and a banking crisis,”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2.7 percent this week to 120.78, snapping a 3.9 percent two-week advance. The gauge tumbled 8.6 percent last month amid escalating concern over Europe’s debt crisis and after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S.’s credit rating. Stocks in the Asian benchmark are valued at about 11.9 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 11.5 times for the S&P 500 and 9.3 times for the Stoxx 600.

Nikkei, Kospi

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average dropped 2.4 percent in a week when the Cabinet Office also said Japan’s economy contracted more than an initial government estimate. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 1.1 percent after a statistics bureau report showed the nation’s employers unexpectedly cut jobs for a second straight month in August.

South Korea’s Kospi Index (KOSPI) slid 2.9 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) retreated 1.7 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 1.2 percent this week.

Honda, which counts North America as its biggest market for sales, plunged 6.4 percent to 2,347 yen in Tokyo. Canon Inc. (7751), which earns more than 80 percent of its sales overseas, declined 2.9 percent to 3,490 yen. James Hardie Industries SE (JHX), a building materials supplier that gets almost 70 percent of sales from the U.S., sank 4.2 percent to A$5.78 in Sydney.

A report Sept. 2 showed U.S. payrolls were unchanged in August, the weakest reading since September 2010. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for an increase of 68,000.

‘Scary Report’

“It was a scary report,” Dan North, chief U.S. economist at Euler Hermes ACI in Owings Mills, Maryland, said in an interview from Singapore with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television on Sept. 5. “When you get to negative job growth, which we’re very close to now, it means you’re already in a recession.”

Stocks fell even as U.S. President Barack Obama outlined a jobs plan that would inject $447 billion into the economy, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policymakers will discuss ways to boost growth at their next meeting.

Fed officials gather for a two-day meeting on Sept. 20 that was expanded from the one day originally scheduled to “allow a fuller discussion” of the economy and the central bank’s possible policy response.

BHP, Jiangxi

BHP Billiton, the world’s No. 1 mining company and Australia’s biggest oil producer, fell 2.9 percent to A$37.91 in Sydney. Rio Tinto Group, the second-largest miner by sales, slid 1.1 percent to A$71.25. In Hong Kong, Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s No. 1 producer of the metal, slumped 4.6 percent to HK$20.95, while Chinese oil explorer Cnooc Ltd. (883) tumbled 9.3 percent to HK$14.

Belle International Holdings Ltd. (1880), a Chinese retailer of women’s shoes, plunged 10 percent to HK$14.60 in Hong Kong and Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700), a Shenzhen-based Internet company, lost 1.5 percent to HK$184.50.

China’s inflation eased in August from a three-year high, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing on Sept. 9. Still, consumer prices climbed 6.2 percent from a year earlier. A separate report showed industrial output growth in China trailed estimates.

Asian stocks also slipped this week after an election loss for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party and reports of a rift between Greece and the International Monetary Fund fueled concern that support for bailing out indebted European nations is waning. Later in the week, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said “downside risks” for the region have risen, while resisting calls to lower interest rates.

Financial Stocks

HSBC fell 3.3 percent to HK$64.95 in Hong Kong. Korea Exchange Bank (004940) retreated 4.3 percent to 7,590 won in Seoul. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s biggest lender by market value, declined 2.9 percent to 332 yen in Tokyo after the cost of insuring against default on European sovereign and financial debt surged to records.


Investors drove yields higher on the bonds of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy early in the week on doubts Europe’s leaders will be able to stop the crisis spreading. The yield on the Greek two-year note rose above its price for the first time on Sept. 5, indicating mounting concern the nation will default on the debt.

Lasting Solution

“Volatility is likely to remain high until there’s clarity around Europe’s ability to work out a lasting solution,” said Nader Naeimi, a Sydney-based strategist for AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages almost $100 billion. “Right now, it seems policy makers are going in the opposite direction. While the fundamentals in Asia are in better shape than elsewhere, shares here will get caught up in the crossfire.”

Fanuc, Japan’s No. 1 maker of controls used to run machine tools, fell 15 percent to 10,730 yen, after the Japan Machinery Tool Builders’ Association said growth in Japanese orders slowed in August, falling 12.7 percent from July. A separate Cabinet Office report this week said Japanese machinery orders fell 8.2 percent in July after rising 7.7 percent in June.

Komatsu Ltd. (6301), the world’s No. 2 maker of construction equipment and Japan’s largest construction machinery maker, sank 14 percent to 1,797 yen.

Technology Shares

Among stocks that advanced this week, Hynix Semiconductor Inc. (000660), the world’s second-largest maker of computer memory, jumped 4.2 percent to 19,900 won in Seoul, leading some technology stocks higher on speculation chip prices will recover. Samsung Electronics Co. gained 1.4 percent to 780,000 won.

The price of the benchmark DDR3 2-gigabit DRAM has fallen 3 percent this month after falling 14 percent in August, according to data from Taipei-based Dramexchange Technology Inc., operator of Asia’s largest spot market for semiconductors.

“There’s some consensus that the chip market is near its bottom,” Ahn Seong Ho, an analyst at Hanwha Securities Co. who covers technology stocks, said in Seoul.

To contact the reporters on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Gentle at ngentle2@bloomberg.net



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Friday, September 9, 2011

Banks May Fight Banks as Mortgage Securities Investors Try for Class Suits

By Thom Weidlich - Sep 9, 2011 11:01 AM GMT+0700

Banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) may pay more to resolve claims over their alleged roles in the collapse of a $2.3 trillion mortgage- backed securities market if sophisticated investors are allowed to sue as a group along with less savvy ones.

Class-action status allows investors to pool financial and legal resources, giving them greater leverage to win larger settlements or verdicts. The banks, however, have a court ruling on their side that may help fend off such blockbuster cases. It says class status is barred because some investors are too sophisticated -- in fact, because some of them are other banks, including JPMorgan.

“It is possible to be both an alleged perpetrator and victim at the same time,” said Jacob S. Frenkel, a former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission lawyer now in private practice in Potomac, Maryland. “It’s unprecedented that you have the most sophisticated institutions as victims, to be in a position where their losses are so great that they have sued.”

The ruling by U.S. District Judge Harold Baer Jr. in Manhattan, favoring defendants Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) and Ally Financial Inc., held that investors may not sue as a class in part because some of them are being sued over the same claims. Last month, that ruling was countered by two judges in Baer’s courthouse, both of whom ruled that investors in home- loan backed securities may sue as a class.

Housing Bubble

Pools of home loans securitized into bonds were a central part of the housing bubble that, once burst, helped push the U.S. into the biggest recession since the 1930s. Investors have filed class-action, or group, lawsuits against at least 16 private issuers of securities backed by mortgages.

Mortgage-bond deals now involved in the class-action suits originally held $204.6 billion of loans, an amount that’s fallen to $89 billion amid defaults, borrower refinancing and home sales, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and a list of transactions provided by New York-based law firm Grais & Ellsworth LLP. Realized losses so far total $26.6 billion, with an additional $33.8 billion of remaining loans at least 30 days delinquent.

“Class certification raises the stakes tremendously,” said Alan White, a law professor at Valparaiso University in Indiana. “The damages are going be greater in a class action than a series of individual cases.”

The investors accuse the defendant financial companies of lying about the quality of the home loans underlying the securities they back, which have deteriorated in value. The defendant banks argued the housing collapse, rather than any misrepresentation on their part, caused investor losses.

Shrunk to $1.21 Trillion

From its $2.3 trillion peak in 2007, the market for mortgage-backed securities has shrunk to $1.21 trillion as of June 30, according to the Federal Reserve.

The class actions involve some of the same securities over which the Federal Housing Finance Agency sued Bank of America, New York-based Citigroup Inc. and 15 other financial institutions on Sept. 2. Those complaints were filed on behalf of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies under government conservatorship. The securities at issue in those cases total $196 billion.

Ruled for Investors

On Aug. 22, U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff in Manhattan issued an opinion explaining why he had earlier ruled that investors, including Mississippi’s public pension system, may sue Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit as a group in a unified lawsuit.

A week earlier, U.S. District Judge Paul A. Crotty in the same court similarly held that investors including the New Jersey Carpenters Health Fund may also collectively pursue their claims against Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN)’s DLJ Mortgage Capital.

Rakoff and Crotty weren’t swayed by bank arguments that securities buyers couldn’t band together because they were sophisticated investors who knew about deteriorating home- lending practices before the meltdown. The plaintiffs knew that in part because some of them are also being sued over the same claims, the defendant banks argued.

The inability to sue as a group would mean many investors won’t pursue their claims, plaintiffs’ lawyers said.

“Getting a class certified in a case like this, in any case, is an important part of the litigation,” said Gerald Silk, a partner at Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann LLP in New York representing investors suing Merrill Lynch.

Three Funds

The three funds seeking to represent the class against Detroit-based Ally bought a total of $1.79 million of the $3.7 billion in securities issued, they wrote in court papers. The case has so far cost more than $3.5 million to litigate and may run to three times that if it goes to trial, showing the need for class-action treatment, they wrote.

The securities lost as much as 99 percent of their value soon after they were issued, the investors wrote.

Baer’s ruling in favor of defendant banks, if upheld, “could result in dozens of securities class actions erroneously being denied certification,” the investors wrote in their appeal in the Ally case. The litigation “would likely be terminated without class certification.”

Class certification has also been a point of contention in cases filed New York and Seattle over securities issued by IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (IDMCQ) and Washington Mutual Inc., now part of New York-based JPMorgan.

Pension System

Investors including Mississippi’s pension system who are suing Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are scheduled to file their motion for class certification in November.

“They’re the kinds of cases that have been brought for decades as class actions,” Silk said. “It’s our view that they’re ideally suited for class-action treatment.”

One bank, Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), agreed to settle litigation against it for $125 million two weeks before a scheduled class- certification hearing in July. The case concerns $27.3 billion of certificates sold by the San Francisco-based bank.

“The proposed settlement agreement is a negotiated resolution as to all named defendants and is intended to avoid the distraction and expense of litigation,” Ancel Martinez, a spokesman for Wells Fargo, said at the time.

Baer, in his Jan . 18 decision, said investors couldn’t sue as a group because they had different knowledge levels of the alleged loosening of mortgage-underwriting standards that led to the home-loan defaults, and ultimately the decline in the value of the securities.

Different Times

The investors also bought the securities at different times, in some cases when more information was surfacing about underwriting standards being ignored, the judge wrote.

“Many putative class members are sophisticated investors with significant experience in asset-backed securities markets,” he wrote. New York-based BlackRock Inc. (BLK) and Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG) and Old Greenwich, Connecticut-based Ellington Management Group LLC “each tout their expertise in mortgage-backed securities,” the judge wrote.

In its case, Merrill Lynch called Fannie Mae, the Washington mortgage-finance company, the biggest class member and a “quintessential housing-market insider,” according to Rakoff, citing redacted portions of Merrill Lynch’s court papers. Fannie Mae bought about $5 billion of the $16.5 billion of certificates in the case, according to Rakoff’s ruling. Fannie Mae may seek to opt out of the class now that FHFA sued Merrill Lynch individually on its behalf.

Amy Bonitatibus, a Fannie Mae spokeswoman, declined to comment on the litigation.

Financial Advisers

The investors said there’s no evidence they or their financial advisers knew about specific prospectus misstatements by the defendants, especially over the particular mortgage originators’ home-lending standards, before they bought the securities.

“The way we understand the law is that the investors had to know about the scheme or the misstatements in the prospectus, and not that they were just generally sophisticated about mortgage-backed securities,” said Joel P. Laitman, a New York- based lawyer at Cohen Milstein Sellers & Toll PLLC, which sued on behalf of investors in the RBS, Credit Suisse and Ally Financial cases.

Pholida Phengsomphone, a spokeswoman for Edinburgh-based RBS, and Lawrence Grayson, a spokesman for Bank of America, declined to comment.

Risk Awareness

“We are encouraged by Judge Baer’s analysis,” said James Olecki, a spokesman for Ally. “It recognizes the legal significance of the extent of knowledge that individual investors may have had as to the risks relating to the investment.”

In the case against Credit Suisse’s DLJ Mortgage unit, which involves $2.39 billion of securities, Crotty said the defendants produced no evidence that the more than 330 investors knew about specific misstatements in the offering documents.

Steven Vames, a spokesman for Zurich-based Credit Suisse, declined to comment on the case.

Some of the defendant banks noted that potential members of the class are other financial firms that are themselves being sued over mortgage-backed securities.

Having individual banks on both sides of these cases is “slightly unusual” and shows “the multi-headed hydras these investment banks have become,” said James D. Cox, a securities- law professor at Duke Law School in Durham, North Carolina. “But they do have these Chinese walls, to make sure the underwriting people are not talking to the investment advisers.”

New York-based JPMorgan, a potential plaintiff and class member in the lawsuit against RBS over $3.45 billion in securities, is being sued in federal court in Brooklyn, New York, over mortgage-backed securities it sold. JPMorgan “is alleged to have had knowledge regarding” disintegrating underwriting standards, Baer wrote.

Investment Funds

The bank’s role in underwriting some securities doesn’t mean its affiliated investment funds knew about misrepresentations in the prospectus for completely different securities, the plaintiff investors wrote in their appeal in the RBS case. RBS is Britain’s biggest government-owned lender.

“These were not the firms that underwrote the offering,” Laitman said. “They bought like everybody else.”

In the Merrill Lynch case, Rakoff agreed with the investors.

“Although defendants note that some members of the class, including Morgan Stanley (MS) Co., have been sued in connection with their own MBS offerings, this is irrelevant to the offerings at issue in this case,” he wrote.

Motions to Dismiss

The parties in the cases against JPMorgan and New York- based Morgan Stanley await decisions on the banks’ motions to dismiss. The federal appeals court in Manhattan hasn’t said yet whether it would accept Merrill Lynch’s appeal of Rakoff’s decision certifying the class of investors.

The cases are New Jersey Carpenters Health Fund v. Residential Capital LLC, 08-08781, New Jersey Carpenters Vacation Fund v. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc., 08- 05093, Public Employees’ Retirement System of Mississippi v. Merrill Lynch & Co., 08-010841, New Jersey Carpenters Health Fund v. DLJ Mortgage Capital Inc., 08-05653, Public Employees’ Retirement System of Mississippi v. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), 09-01110, In re Morgan Stanley Pass-Through Certificates Litigation, 09-02137, and In re IndyMac Mortgage-Backed Securities Litigation, 09-04583, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan); Plumbers’ & Pipefitters’ Local #562 Supplemental Plan & Trust v. J.P. Morgan Acceptance Corp., 08-01713, U.S. District Court, Eastern District of New York (Brooklyn); In re Wells Fargo Mortgage-Backed Certificates Litigation, 09-01376, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California (San Jose); and In re Washington Mutual Mortgage- Backed Securities Litigation, 09-cv-00037, U.S. District Court, Western District of Washington (Seattle).

To contact the reporter on this story: Thom Weidlich in federal court in Brooklyn, New York, at tweidlich@bloomberg.net.





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Oil Heads for Third Weekly Gain on Obama Job Plan, Storm in Gulf of Mexico

By Ben Sharples and Ann Koh - Sep 9, 2011 11:42 AM GMT+0700

Oil headed for a third weekly gain as investors bet President Barack Obama’s proposed job-creation plan will support demand for fuel and as producers in the Gulf of Mexico evacuated workers ahead of Tropical Storm Nate.

West Texas Intermediate futures climbed as much as 0.5 percent, erasing a decline of 0.8 percent, after Obama asked Congress to pass a proposal to inject $447 billion into the economy of the world’s biggest oil user. Prices slid yesterday after Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the nation’s recovery is fragile. Energy companies including BP Plc began evacuating platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, home to 27 percent of U.S. oil output.

“In the next month or so, it’s going to be very uncertain,” said Jeremy Friesen, a Hong Kong-based commodity strategist at Societe Generale SA. “We could see prices continuing to sell-off if the market doesn’t like what the Fed says. But if the market likes that, the physical crude market is reasonably tight, so that should support prices.”

Oil for October delivery gained as much as 45 cents to $89.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $89.21 at 12:11 p.m. Singapore time. Prices are 3.2 percent higher this week and up 20 percent the past year.

Brent oil for October settlement increased as much as 45 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $115 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $25.59 to U.S. futures, compared with the record settlement of $26.87 on Sept. 6.

Nate, Stockpiles

Tropical Storm Nate’s top winds are 70 miles (113 kilometers) per hour, just under the threshold of 74 mph needed to be a hurricane, according to an advisory from the U.S. National Hurricane Center before 11 p.m. East Coast time yesterday. The storm has been lashing Petroleos Mexicanos rigs in the Bay of Campeche and its final track is still in question.

BP and Apache Corp. said they were beginning evacuations of some workers in the Gulf because of Nate. The BP decision affects non-essential workers at the Atlantis, Holstein and Mad Dog platforms, according to a message on a telephone hotline. Apache’s removal of non-essential workers from facilities in the far western Gulf hasn’t affected production, Bill Mintz, a company spokesman, said in an e-mail.

U.S. crude supplies fell 3.96 million barrels to 353.1 million last week as Tropical Storm Lee shut platforms, a report from the Energy Department showed yesterday. They were forecast to drop 2 million barrels, according to the median estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Gasoline stockpiles climbed 199,000 barrels, compared with a median forecast for a drop of 1.4 million barrels.

Global Growth

Oil in New York slid yesterday after Bernanke said Fed policy makers will discuss tools to boost the economic recovery at their next meeting this month. Obama, speaking before a joint session of Congress, demanded that lawmakers act on a plan that would boost spending, stem layoffs and cut taxes.

“The price rise you’ve seen in WTI relates more to Obama’s speech than the weather,” said Friesen. The energy department report “was fairly supportive for crude,” he said.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut growth forecasts yesterday for the U.S. and Japan, the largest and third-largest oil-consuming countries. China is the second-biggest user of crude.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net; Ann Koh in Singapore at akoh15@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in Singapore at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net



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Dollar, Yen Drop as Obama’s Job Creation Proposals Curbs Demand for Safety

By Kristine Aquino and Masaki Kondo - Sep 9, 2011 11:15 AM GMT+0700

The dollar and yen declined against most of their major peers after President Barack Obama unveiled proposals to create jobs and boost the U.S. economy, damping demand for safer assets.

The dollar snapped yesterday’s advance versus the euro after Obama urged Congress to pass his $447 billion plan. The yen slid after Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he will tell his counterparts in the Group of Seven nations that Japan remains prepared to take “bold” action in currency markets. The Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced after a report showed China’s inflation cooled from a three-year high.

“We can say that Obama’s plan is seen favorably in the market, boosting risk appetite and spurring selling of the dollar and yen,” said Daisaku Ueno, president of Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s largest online currency broker. “Expectations for stimulus measures are strong.”

The dollar fell to $1.3925 per euro as of 12:54 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3882 in New York yesterday when it rose to $1.3873, the strongest since July 12. It traded at 77.47 yen from 77.51. Japan’s currency dropped to 107.87 per euro from 107.59. The dollar advanced 2 percent against the 17-nation euro this week, while the yen gained 1.1 percent.

Obama proposed a jobs plan that includes infrastructure spending, subsidies to local governments and tax reductions. The centerpiece of the plan is cuts in payroll taxes, which cover the first $106,800 in earnings and are evenly split between employers and employees.

‘Sincere’ Effort

“I think in this case the president is sincere about trying to figure out ways to create jobs,” Robert Sinche, the global head of currency strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, said in an interview in Singapore. “I think in terms of the U.S., we don’t believe in a double dip.”

Demand for the yen was limited before G-7 finance ministers meet today in Marseille, France, to discuss ways to bolster their economies. Japan’s Azumi said before departing Tokyo that he would appeal to the group to appreciate his concern about excessive yen gains. The Cabinet Office today said Japan’s gross domestic product shrank at an annualized 2.1 percent rate in the three months ended June 30, more than the 1.3 percent contraction reported last month.

G-7 Meeting

Members have indicated intervention “should be done in agreement with the G-7 as opposed to unilaterally,” Rintaro Tamaki, who was a vice finance minister until July and directed two of Japan’s three rounds of yen sales in the past year, said in an interview in Paris yesterday. He was referring to language in an Aug. 8 statement by the G-7 that said officials will “closely consult” each other on currencies.

Japan has intervened three times in the past 12 months to weaken its currency, with the last operation being a 4.51 trillion yen sale in August, the largest monthly amount since March 2004. The yen went on to reach 75.95 per dollar on Aug. 19, a postwar record.

The euro is set for a second week of losses against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will lead its counterparts in coordinated monetary easing after it cut its growth forecast for the region this year.

“There are too many problems in Europe: it will be just a drag on growth,” said Derek Mumford, a Sydney-based director at Rochford Capital, a foreign-exchange and interest-rate risk- management firm. “Europe’s diverse governments, different fiscal policies and all the troubles that come with it will take a toll on the euro in the near term.”

ECB Rate

The ECB left its benchmark rate at 1.5 percent and slashed its 2011 growth forecast to 1.6 percent from 1.9 and to 1.3 percent from 1.7 for 2012 at yesterday’s meeting in Frankfurt.

The ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve may implement coordinated monetary-policy easing to tackle weak growth, Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note to investors on Sept. 7.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars trimmed weekly losses against the greenback after data showed that Chinese consumer prices eased last month, curbing speculation policy makers will take further steps to bring down costs.

China’s inflation “will be less of an issue going forward,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of global currency strategy in Hong Kong at Credit Agricole CIB. “We should see more support for the Australian and New Zealand dollars.”

China’s consumer prices climbed 6.2 percent from a year earlier in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today. That was in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and compares with a 6.5 percent increase in July. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and New Zealand’s second-biggest export market.

Australia’s currency advanced to $1.0626 from $1.0576 yesterday, paring its weekly loss to 0.2 percent. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.6 percent to 83.54 U.S. cents, set for a 1.5 percent decline since Sept. 2.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kristine Aquino in Singapore at kaquino1@bloomberg.net; Masaki Kondo in Singapore at mkondo3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net




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Gold Poised for Weekly Decline on Obama Plan

By Glenys Sim - Sep 9, 2011 10:23 AM GMT+0700

Gold headed for a weekly decline on optimism a plan by U.S. President Barack Obama will create jobs and spur growth in the world’s largest economy, trimming demand for safer assets.

Bullion for immediate delivery shed as much as 0.9 percent to $1,853.93 an ounce and was at $1,862.15 at 10:37 a.m. Singapore time. December delivery futures in New York gained 0.4 percent to $1,864.50 an ounce, paring a 0.8 percent advance.

Obama called on Congress to pass a jobs plan that would inject $447 billion into the economy through spending on infrastructure, subsidies to local governments to stem teacher layoffs, and cutting in half the payroll taxes paid by workers and small-business owners.

“The plan reflects the government’s deep concern about the economy, raising the real possibility of another round of quantitative easing, which is supportive of gold,” said Duan Shihua, head of corporate services at Haitong Futures Co. and the top-rated gold analyst this year in an annual poll by the Futures Daily and Securities Times. “We’re just getting some book squaring today as investors digest the news, but that just represents to us a good buying opportunity.”

Spot gold, which reached a record $1,921.15 an ounce on Sept. 6, is down 1.1 percent this week. It rebounded from a two- day, 4.4 percent-slump yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke held off from offering new measures to spur growth, boosting demand for gold as a store of value.

Jobless Claims

First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week, a sign the labor market is struggling to gain traction. Claims for unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to 414,000 in the week ended Sept. 3, data yesterday showed, adding to signs the U.S. economy is faltering. The median target of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a drop to 405,000.

Gold is still in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies, and hedge against inflation.

Consumer prices in China climbed 6.2 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today. That compared with the 6.2 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 31 economists and July’s 6.5 percent gain, which was the highest level in three years.

China’s gold investment demand surged 44 percent in the second quarter from a year ago to 53 metric tons of coins and bars, according to the World Gold Council. That was second- largest after India. Jewelry demand in the country gained 16 percent to 102.9 tons, council data showed.

Platinum for immediate delivery fell 1.1 percent to $1,841 an ounce, trading below gold for a fifth time this week. Cash silver shed 0.2 percent to $42.24 an ounce, while palladium rose 0.2 percent to $760 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Richard Dobson at rdobson4@bloomberg.net





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Deutsche Bank Risk Seen Rising as Puts Appreciate Most in Europe: Options

By Cecile Vannucci and Jeff Kearns - Sep 9, 2011 11:32 AM GMT+0700

The price of options to protect against losses in Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) shares is rising more than any other European lender as Germany leads the rescue of nations in the region’s shared currency.

Three-month options that pay owners should Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank drop 10 percent cost 1.3 times the price of contracts betting on 10 percent gains, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up from 1.14 at the end of July, the biggest increase among financial firms in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, data using five-day averages show. Stocks subject to bans on short selling were excluded.

While budget deficits in Greece sparked the crisis, attention is turning to Germany, the largest provider of bailout funds in the region, as concern increases that its efforts will fail. The DAX Index plunged 27 percent this quarter, the third- largest decline behind Italy and Greece, while Deutsche Bank has dropped 38 percent. Josef Ackermann, its chief executive officer, said last week that conditions in stock and bond markets are reminiscent of late 2008.

“Deutsche Bank in Europe is kind of an anchor,” Matthias Fankhauser, a fund manager at Clariden Leu AG, which oversees 90 billion Swiss francs ($104 billion), said in a telephone interview from Zurich yesterday. “The pressure recently on Germany, on the DAX, probably had a big impact on Deutsche as well. We saw weakening and quite weak economic data recently, which really shows that the economy was losing momentum at a high speed.”

Falling Euro

The European Central Bank said risks to the economic recovery have intensified, sending the euro down 1.5 percent against the U.S. dollar yesterday. Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt reached a record, signaling a 91 percent chance the nation will fail to meet debt commitments. Germany is the chief underwriter of emergency loans offered to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, contributing about 27 percent of the total because it’s Europe’s biggest economy.

The benchmark gauge of European options prices, the VStoxx Index (V2X), slipped 4.2 percent to 41.63 yesterday. The index tracks prices for options on the Euro Stoxx 50, which rose 0.6 percent. Its U.S. counterpart, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, rose 2.8 percent to 34.32.

Investors are betting against Deutsche Bank because of risks from the debt crisis even as the company projects the lender will increase earnings this year, said Dirk Becker, a financial industry analyst at Kepler Capital Markets in Frankfurt who has a “buy” rating on the stock.

Slowing Growth

Deutsche Bank had net sovereign risks related to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain of 3.67 billion euros ($5.1 billion) on June 30, the company said July 26. Net income will surge 139 percent to 5.53 billion euros in 2011, according to the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Growth will slow to 9.2 percent in 2012, the data show.

“It’s one of the most hated stocks in the universe,” Becker said in a telephone interview yesterday. “People believe the European debt crisis may end in some kind of worst-case scenario such as a euro breakup or sovereign default, and if those things happen Deutsche Bank is one of the most interconnected banks and would obviously be one of the big losers. That’s what is being priced in.”

Christian Streckert, a Frankfurt-based spokesman for Deutsche Bank, declined to comment.

The lender has tumbled 49 percent from its Feb. 16 high, including a 35 percent loss since the end of July. The shares sank to the lowest price since March 2009 on Sept. 6. Deutsche Bank had the fifth-biggest drop in the Stoxx 600 Banks Index during the past month, behind three Greek lenders -- EFG Eurobank Ergasias, Alpha Bank AE and National Bank of Greece SA -- and Paris-based Societe Generale (GLE) SA.

Profit Forecast

Deutsche Bank said yesterday that if capital markets and the sovereign debt crisis improve, it will reach its forecast for 10 billion euros in pretax operating profit this year. Ackermann said Sept. 5 that volatility and uncertainty were the “new normal” in markets and banking.

Investors are snapping up Deutsche Bank’s December 22 euro puts, which are priced 12 percent below yesterday’s stock price of 24.89 euros. The number of existing contracts surged eightfold to 9,681 in the past two weeks, the most among the company’s equity derivatives, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While options traders are becoming more pessimistic about Deutsche Bank, they’re paying less for insurance against U.K. lenders. Put costs have fallen since July 29 in relation to calls for Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Plc, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Bank of England said in June that the euro-area debt crisis poses the biggest risk to the stability of the nation’s financial system.

Short-Sale Bans

Deutsche Bank’s options prices may show more pessimism than other lenders because some European countries have curbed short selling, according to Justin Wiggs, who trades financial stocks at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore.

Stocks dropped worldwide on Aug. 25, including a slump of as much as 4 percent by the DAX, as France, Italy and Spain extended restrictions on short selling, which involves the sale of securities borrowed from the owner in a bet they fall. Spain and Italy extended their bans through Sept. 30. France’s Autorite des Marches Financiers said its ban could last as long as Nov. 11. The regulators all said they might lift the bans on short selling of financial stocks when the market stabilizes.

‘Ongoing Pressure’


“The fundamental thing is you can’t do it in other markets,” Wiggs said about the short-sale bans in a telephone interview yesterday. “There could be ongoing pressure on German markets because people want to be short and there could be some pricing skew because of that.”

Deutsche Bank’s core tier 1 capital ratio, a measure of financial strength, would be 7 percent in 2012 if all so-called Basel III rules from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision were applied, Mediobanca SpA’s Christopher Wheeler said in a report yesterday. That would trail rivals such as UBS AG, HSBC Holdings Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the analyst said.

The Frankfurt-based bank is “confident” it will meet Basel III capital and liquidity requirements early, Chief Risk Officer Hugo Banziger said in a presentation on June 10.

“For Deutsche, the question always has been do they have enough capital, and that discussion is still going on,” Florian Esterer, who helps oversee about $55 billion at Swisscanto Asset Management AG in Zurich, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “The company always said ‘we don’t need any more capital so quit bothering us,’ but the underlying risk is that they’re not sufficiently capitalized and they will need to raise equity.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Cecile Vannucci in Amsterdam at cvannucci1@bloomberg.net; Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net; Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net




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Daily Financial Market Outlook

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Lloyds TSB | Sep 09 11 04:26 GMT

As was widely expected no policy changes were announced after either the MPC or ECB meetings yesterday. Despite the decisions votes seemingly being in line with expectations, the markets at least initially reacted with a degree of disappointment to this news. However, ECB Chairman Trichet's subsequent press conference which emphasised that the risks on both inflation and economic growth had shifted caused German bonds to rally and the euro to sell off. As usual there was no statement from the BoE following the MPC meeting and so no evidence as yet as to whether the Committee's thinking has also shifted, although this must be highly likely. The minutes of the meeting, which will be released on the 21st will provide the first information on this. In the meantime, in a further indication of how consensus thinking is shifting the OECD announced a downward revision to its global growth forecasts yesterday.

The August UK PPI figures released today are likely to signal a nearterm easing of inflationary pressures. Last month, sterling's tradeweighted index moved higher, while commodity prices have weakened. Together, these developments point to a fall in input prices. Meanwhile, producer output prices are expected to be unchanged. We still have longer-term concerns about the UK inflation outlook, but given mounting concerns about growth this is unlikely to be at the forefront of policy makers' thoughts for now.


In the euro area today's data on Italian GDP and French industrial production will provide further information on the real economy. Both are likely to be reassuring as they should show slow growth, rather than rapidly falling output. But as they both refer to the period before the current market turbulence gathered pace, they are likely to be seen by markets as old news.

UK remains vulnerable to global price pressures



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Lloyds TSB Bank

Disclaimer: Any documentation, reports, correspondence or other material or information in whatever form be it electronic, textual or otherwise is based on sources believed to be reliable, however neither the Bank nor its directors, officers or employees warrant accuracy, completeness or otherwise, or accept responsibility for any error, omission or other inaccuracy, or for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. The facts and data contained are not, and should under no circumstances be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product, nor are they intended to be a substitute for commercial judgement or professional or legal advice, and you should not act in reliance upon any of the facts and data contained, without first obtaining professional advice relevant to your circumstances. Expressions of opinion may be subject to change without notice. Although warrants and/or derivative instruments can be utilised for the management of investment risk, some of these products are unsuitable for many investors. The facts and data contained are therefore not intended for the use of private customers (as defined by the FSA Handbook) of Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a signatory to the Banking Codes, and represents only the Scottish Widows and Lloyds TSB Marketing Group for life assurance, pension and investment business.

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FX Technical Commentary

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Easy Forex | Sep 09 11 04:16 GMT

FX Technical Commentary

Euro 1.3925

Initial support at 1.3837 (Jul 12 low) followed by 1.3837 (July 12 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4220 (Sept 5 high) followed by 1.4288 (Sept 2 high)

Yen 77.45

Initial support is located at 76.55 (Sep 2 low) followed by 75.95 (Psych level). Initial resistance is now at 77.70 (Aug 25 high) followed by 78.86 (Aug 8 high).

Pound 1.5985

Initial support at 1.5921 (Sep 6 low) followed by 1.5781 (Jul 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6061 (Sept 5 high) followed by 1.6334 (Aug 31 high).

Australian Dollar 1.0625

Initial support at 1.0419 (Aug 26 low) followed by the 1.0363 (Aug 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0666 (Sept 5 high) followed by 1.0734 (Sep 2 high).

Gold 1863

Initial support at 1805 (Sept 8 low) followed by 1757 (Aug 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1880 (Sept 7 high) followed by 1921 (Sept 6 high).

Oil 89.40

Initial support at 88.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 90.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 92.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3752 1.3837 1.3925 1.4149 1.4288
USD/JPY 75.95 76.55 77.45 77.70 78.86
GBP/USD 1.5781 1.5921 1.5985 1.6061 1.6334
AUD/USD 1.0363 1.0419 1.0625 1.0666 1.0734
XAU/USD 1757.00 1805 1863 1880 1921
OIL/USD 85.00 88.0 89.40 90.00 92.50

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Thursday, September 8, 2011

U.S. Trade Gap Falls More Than Forecast to Three-Month Low $44.8 Billion

By Alex Kowalski - Sep 8, 2011 7:48 PM GMT+0700
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in July, reaching a three-month low as exports climbed to a record and crude oil imports eased.
The gap shrank 13.1 percent, the most since February 2009, to $44.8 billion from a revised $51.6 billion shortfall in June, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The deficit was less than all projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Exports rose 3.6 percent as companies shipped more capital goods and automobiles to overseas customers.
The global slowdown and Europe’s debt crisis have raised concerns of a diminishing international flow of goods and services the rest of this year. Sustained growth in exports may help U.S. manufacturers weather weaker demand from American consumers and businesses that’s restraining the recovery.
“Trade could add favorably to economic activity during the third quarter,” said Millan Mulraine, senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities in New York. “The slowdown in the global economy may not be as great as we thought a few months ago, which certainly is encouraging.”
First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week, a sign the labor market is struggling to gain traction. Jobless claims climbed by 2,000 to 414,000 in the week ended Sept. 3, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.
Stock-index futures held losses after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring this month fell 1.1 percent to 1,186.3 at 8:48 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.99 percent from 2.04 percent late yesterday.

Economists’ Estimates

The trade gap was projected to shrink from an initially reported $53.1 billion in June, according to the median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Estimates ranged from deficits of $55 billion to $46 billion.
After eliminating the influence of prices to render the figures used in calculating gross domestic product, the trade deficit narrowed to a three-month low of $45.3 billion from $50.3 billion. The number was less than the $47.3 billion deficit averaged in the second quarter, indicating trade may add to growth this quarter.
Exports increased to $178 billion, boosted by sales of telecommunications equipment, civilian aircraft, autos and industrial engines. U.S. shipments of capital goods and autos and parts to overseas customers were the highest on record.
Imports fell 0.2 percent to $222.8 billion from $223.4 billion in the prior month.

Petroleum Imports

The figures showed a reduction in demand for crude oil as the price per barrel exceeded $100 in July for a fourth month. The average price of imported crude oil was $104.27 compared with $106 in June, today’s report showed. U.S. companies imported 350,657 barrels in July, the fewest since April.
Imports in July reflected $22.3 billion in shipments of auto parts, the most since February 2008. Parts deliveries from Japan have started to recover after the nation’s March earthquake and tsunami. Automobile-related goods have been entering the U.S. at about 50 percent of the rate before the natural disaster, according to Richard Steinke, executive director of the Port of Long Beach.
A labor market that stagnated in August is weighing on the ability of U.S. households to spend on goods made overseas. Payrolls were unchanged last month, and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, Labor Department figures showed Sept. 2.
“While the economies in our primary markets have generally improved since the lows of the economic crisis, many consumers remain cautious,” Denise Morrison, president and chief executive officer at Campbell Soup Co. (CPB), said on a Sept. 2 conference call with analysts. “The recovery has not progressed at the pace or intensity consumers had hoped for. As a result, consumers remain careful about their purchases and feel the need for resourcefulness and vigilance.”

Campbell Profit

Campbell, the world’s biggest soup maker, said fourth- quarter profit declined 12 percent as sales dropped.
Slower growth in developed countries raises the risk manufacturers will temper production going forward. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area rose 0.2 percent in three months ended June from the first quarter, when it increased 0.8 percent. Economic growth in Canada, the U.S.’s largest trading partner, shrank in the second quarter for the first time since the recession two years ago.
The trade gap with China widened to $27 billion, the highest since September, from $26.7 billion as gain in imports outpaced an increase in exports. The deficit with Canada increased to $3.2 billion from $2.8 billion, while it shrank with the European Union. Exports to South and Central America were the highest ever.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

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