Economic Calendar

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Obama Criticizes Republicans for Blocking His Jobs Proposal

By Julianna Goldman and Roger Runningen - Oct 18, 2011 4:45 AM GMT+0700

President Barack Obama called on Congress to pass elements of his jobs proposal and attacked Republican alternatives, saying his plan is the “real Americans Jobs Act.”

After Republicans blocked his $447 billion package of tax cuts and spending in the Senate, Obama is seeking to tap into populist anger in his campaign to get lawmakers to pass individual provisions of the proposal.

The Republicans “want to gut regulations” and “let Wall Street do whatever it wants,” Obama said today in Fletcher, North Carolina, where he started a three-day, 560-mile bus tour that also will take him to Virginia. Obama won both Republican- leaning states in 2008 and seeks to hold both in next year’s election.

“I need you to give Congress a piece of your mind,” he said. “Tell your elected leaders to do the right thing.”

Six weeks after Obama unveiled his plan and with voters increasingly anxious about the direction of the country, the president is using his bus tour to blame Republicans for Congress’s failure to enact his package of tax cuts and spending measures that the White House says would spur growth and lower the 9.1 percent unemployment rate.

Aid to States

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is demanding a vote on the first piece of the broken-up a jobs package, providing $35 billion in aid to cash-strapped state governments. The Nevada Democrat said it would help save the jobs of teachers, firefighters and other public-sector workers. Reid would pay for it with a half-percent surtax on individuals with annual incomes of $1 million or more.

The legislation is unlikely to pass the Senate; Republicans, who have a majority in the House and enough votes in the Senate to block legislation, have rejected raising taxes to pay for the plan. They also object to additional spending when the nation is struggling with a budget deficit that was $1.3 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30. It was the third consecutive year that the shortfall has exceeded $1 trillion.

Republicans said the president, in hitting states he seeks to win in 2012, is focused more on politics than economy.

More Cooperation

“It’s disappointing the president would rather give more partisan speeches than work with Republicans to find common ground,” said Brendan Buck, a spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio. “There are things we can do right now to help struggling American families, but it will require more cooperation and less campaigning from the White House.”

The North Carolina Republican Party responded to Obama’s visit with a “Towbama” campaign that features a tow truck as a prop and an offer to “tow that bus back” to Washington so Obama can work on economic policy, Robin Hayes, the state party chairman, said on a conference call.

Of the $35 billion to states and communities, more than $900 million would help teachers and first responders in North Carolina and would support 13,400 jobs across the state, where the unemployment rate is above the national average at 10.4 percent, according to the administration.

Obama cited the state’s need for federal help with infrastructure projects that would put construction workers back on the job, including runways and taxiways at Asheville Regional Airport, where he spoke. The airport authority is seeking $60 million for renovations. The jobs bill includes $2 billion for airport infrastructure projects.

Compromise

The president sought to cast himself as so willing to compromise that he angered members of his own party.

“I want to work with Republicans in any way possible to create jobs right now,” Obama said at his last stop, West Wilkes High School in Millers Creek, North Carolina, about 112 miles (180 kilometers) from the Asheville area where he began the trip. “I have bent over backwards, I have shown myself to be willing.”

Obama will spend the night in Greensboro with another stop in North Carolina scheduled for tomorrow before he heads into neighboring Virginia.

Obama narrowly won North Carolina in 2008, by 0.3 percent of the vote, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee to win the state in 32 years. An Oct. 6 Public Policy Polling survey shows Obama’s job approval rating in North Carolina virtually unchanged since September with 44 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving.

To contact the reporters on this story: Julianna Goldman in Fletcher, North Carolina, at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net; Roger Runningen in Washington at rrunningen@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net




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Oil Drops For a Second Day After China’s Economy Grows Slowest Since 2009

By Ben Sharples and Christian Schmollinger - Oct 18, 2011 1:56 PM GMT+0700

Oil fell for a second day in New York after China said its economy grew at the slowest pace in two years and U.S. crude stockpiles were forecast to increase.

Futures dropped as much as 0.5 percent, extending yesterday’s 0.5 percent decline, after China’s statistics bureau said the economy grew at 9.1 percent in the third quarter, less than predicted. An Energy Department report tomorrow may show U.S. crude inventories climbed for a second week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Technical indicators indicate prices may have advanced too fast to be sustainable.

“The number from China is getting a bit worse than before,” said Ken Hasegawa, an energy trading manager at broker Newedge Group in Tokyo, who forecasts prices will decline $5 a barrel. “If the recovery of the economies in Europe and the U.S. is getting worse, then the economies of China and Asia will show some damage.”

Crude for November delivery fell as much as 40 cents to $85.98 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $86.10 at 2:45 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract lost 42 cents to $86.38, the lowest settlement since Oct. 13. Prices are down 5.8 percent this year.

Brent oil for December settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange dropped as much as 45 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $109.71 a barrel. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $24 to U.S. futures. The difference narrowed 16 percent yesterday, the most since June 16.

Stochastic Oscillators

Crude is extending losses in New York as the five-day stochastic oscillators have risen above 70, signaling prices may have climbed too quickly to be sustained, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors tend to sell contracts when the market is considered “overbought”.

U.S. crude stockpiles probably rose by 2 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 14, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before a weekly Energy Department report tomorrow. All the respondents forecast an increase from 337.6 million.

Gasoline supplies are expected to have decreased 1 million barrels, the survey showed. Distillate-fuel inventories, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, likely fell 1.5 million barrels.

China’s gross domestic product increased less than the median estimate of 9.3 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists. The country consumes more crude than any nation except the U.S.

Apparent oil demand in China, or the amount of processing volume plus net imports, increased 2.8 percent to 8.949 million barrels a day in September compared with a year ago. That’s down from 7.97 percent year-on-year growth in August, based on Bloomberg data.

Libya Output

Libya’s largest oil refinery at Ras Lanuf will be ready to start operations next month, acting Chief Executive Officer Abdo A. Ahmed at Libyan Emirates Refining Co. said yesterday. The plant, which can process 220,000 barrels a day of crude, was shut in March because of fighting between forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi and rebels seeking the former leader’s ouster.

Fighting has reduced the availability of light, sweet crude, or oil with low density and sulfur content, from Libya, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The country’s output fell to 45,000 barrels a day in August, according to Bloomberg estimates. The North African nation pumped 100,000 barrels a day last month.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net; Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in Singapore at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net




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Billionaire Dethrones Kings in Beer and Burgers

By Fabiola Moura - Oct 18, 2011 11:01 AM GMT+0700
Bloomberg Markets Magazine

The Burger King hamburger chain made a dramatic decision in August. It dethroned the King -- the mascot who had danced through its advertising in various guises for more than 50 years. The marketing move was made by the struggling company’s new management, appointed after it was taken private in 2010 by 3G Capital Inc., a New York-based investment firm with roots in Brazil.

The takeover of Burger King Holdings Inc. by 3G Capital means the chain has a new monarch: Jorge Paulo Lemann, the founder of 3G. Lemann, 72, is an iconic figure in Brazilian finance. In 1971, when Brazil was under military rule, he founded the country’s first modern investment bank, Banco de Investimentos Garantia SA, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its November issue. In subsequent decades, he emerged as one of Brazil’s most prolific dealmakers.

Lemann’s biggest transaction: the $52 billion 2008 takeover of Anheuser-Busch Cos. by InBev NV.

InBev was itself formed from Belgium’s Interbrew SA and Brazil’s Cia. de Bebidas das Americas, or AmBev -- the biggest beer maker in South America and the source of much of Lemann’s fortune. His stake in Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI) alone was valued at $8.9 billion as of mid-September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Burger King and his other holdings add several billion more.

AB InBev is the world’s largest beer maker, with more than 200 brands, including Budweiser, the best-selling beer in the U.S.; Brahma and Skol, the leading beers in Brazil; Beck’s; and Stella Artois. When he founded Anheuser Busch in the 19th Century, Adolphus Busch labeled his brew the King of Beers, a slogan that still appears on some Budweiser packaging.

New Management Culture

One of Lemann’s admirers is oil-and-mining magnate Eike Batista, who’s the richest man in Brazil, according to Bloomberg data.

“Jorge Paulo created a whole management culture in Brazil that is extraordinary,” Batista, 54, says. “He motivated employees by letting them share the profits -- aggressive, but that leads to results.”

Lemann is reclusive. He gave his last media interview in 2008 and declined to be interviewed for this story, as did his two longtime business partners, Marcel Herrmann Telles and Carlos Alberto da Veiga Sicupira.

Together, the three men run 3G and Stichting AK, a Netherlands-based firm that has a controlling stake in Anheuser- Busch InBev. Through 3G and other private companies, they also own stakes in Rio de Janeiro-based retailer Lojas Americanas SA (LAME4); Sao Paulo-based Sao Carlos Empreendimentos e Participacoes SA (SCAR3), a real-estate company; and Jacksonville, Florida-based CSX Corp. (CSX), one of the biggest U.S. freight-rail companies.

Billionaire Trio

Telles’s AB InBev stake alone was worth $3.95 billion as of mid-September, and Sicupira’s stake was valued at $3.2 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

“They are not about beer,” says Tom Pirko, founder and president of Bevmark LLC, an adviser to the food and beverage industries. “And they are not about hamburgers. They are about money. They know how to cut costs. They know how to very aggressively push something.”

Lemann and his partners are known for their tough management style. That was felt right away at Burger King, which they bought for $24 a share from Texas-based private-equity firm TPG Capital Inc. and other investors and took private in October 2010.

At the time it was acquired, the company was a distant third in revenues and profits behind competitors McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) and Wendy’s Co. -- and losing ground. Bernardo Hees, a former chief operating officer of All America Latina Logistica SA (ALLL3), a firm Lemann and his partners once controlled, was named chief executive officer and quickly cut hundreds of jobs.

Cross-Selling

Most of the board members resigned, and the new management ended the company’s relationship with ad agency Crispin Porter & Bogusky LLC -- and then deposed the King mascot.

Pirko doesn’t think it’s a coincidence that Lemann and his partners first took control of a beverage company and then a restaurant chain. They’ve already moved to begin cross-selling between the two businesses. In April, Burger King signed up PepsiCo Inc. as the exclusive soft-drink provider for its restaurants in Latin America and the Caribbean. AmBev is the producer and distributor of Pepsi products in Brazil.

Hees has told investors and analysts that his plan is to make Burger King a top brand in Latin America during the next five years. He wants to open 1,000 restaurants in Brazil alone, up from 108 in mid-September.

Swiss Father

Lemann, the son of a Swiss businessman who emigrated to Brazil, was a tennis pro before he moved into finance. He was Brazil’s top-ranked player five times from 1960 to 1972, according to the Brazilian Tennis Federation. He competed in the Davis Cup in 1962 for Switzerland -- he holds dual citizenship -- and for Brazil in 1973.

While pursuing his tennis career, Lemann attended Harvard University, receiving a degree in economics in 1961. For a few months after graduating, he worked as a financial columnist for the newspaper Jornal do Brasil. He left that post because he was pursuing a job as a broker at the same time, which his managing editor, Alberto Dines, saw as a conflict.

“If he had continued being a journalist, he was going to be a Joe Schmo,” says Dines, 79, who today runs Observatorio da Imprensa, a TV program and website. “I helped him become a billionaire.”

After 10 years at various financial firms, Lemann founded investment bank Garantia in 1971. The military was running the government at the time, and markets were volatile. Weeks after Lemann, then 32, founded his firm, the Brazilian stock market fell 60 percent -- and Lemann’s bank lost almost all of its capital.

Modeled on Goldman

The bank survived, with Lemann trying to fashion it after big Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), says Jose Olympio Pereira, who started his career at Garantia in 1985 as an investment analyst and left in 1998 as head of corporate finance. He’s now chief of investment banking for Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) in Brazil.

“Garantia was a paradise for ambitious, entrepreneurial people,” Pereira says. “This ‘virus’ of the Garantia culture infected the Brazilian corporate world. It is amazing the number of businessmen I work with who admire the Garantia model.”

Pereira is one of a dozen top business leaders and government officials who started their careers at Garantia. Another is Andre Lara Resende, who ran Brazil’s national development bank until 1998 and helped design the Plano Real, the 1994 economic scheme that broke the cycle of high inflation in Brazil.

Fraga an Admirer

Another is Arminio Fraga, who was chief economist at Garantia from 1985 to 1988 and went on to become head of Brazil’s central bank from 1999 to 2002. Fraga is now chairman of Sao Paulo-based BM&FBovespa SA (BVMF3), the operator of Latin America’s biggest stock exchange.

Fraga says Lemann made Garantia home to Brazil’s best and brightest.

“He always led by example,” Fraga says. “It was clearly a meritocracy, capable of attracting and keeping people with great talent and energy.”

Garantia landed assignments helping multinationals such as Colgate-Palmolive Co. and Philip Morris International Inc. (PM), both based in New York, make acquisitions in Brazil. In 1998, Garantia was acquired by Credit Suisse for almost $1 billion.

Interbrew and Ambev

Lemann, Sicupira and Telles went on to found an investment firm called GP Investimentos, which they sold in 2004 so they could concentrate their energies on the $11 billion merger of Belgium’s Interbrew and Brazil’s AmBev.

Though the new company was based in Leuven, Belgium, the Brazilians took control of what was then the world’s second- largest brewer. They quickly imposed cost controls. The productivity of InBev employees, who were afraid of losing their jobs, improved substantially, says a person who was an Interbrew executive at the time of the merger.

In the next and final move that created the world’s largest brewer, InBev bought St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch in 2008. Some 1,400 people quickly lost their jobs. Perks ranging from business-class flights and BlackBerrys to free cases of beer were eliminated, according to a person familiar with the business who said he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.

Even CEO Carlos Alves de Brito, a former AmBev chief executive who has run the bigger company since the merger, was asked to fly economy class.

Prizes Simplicity

Former colleagues say Lemann is a frugal executive who prizes simplicity. He doesn’t drive sports cars or collect expensive art, friends say.

“All that was not part of the Garantia culture -- the showing off, being high profile,” Pereira says.

The austere lifestyle paid off on one particular day in the mid-1980s. Lemann was driving his Volkswagen to a beach in Rio and stopped for gas, according to Claudio Haddad, president of Insper Institute of Education and Research in Sao Paulo and a former CEO of Garantia. As Lemann was pumping gas, bandits rolled up to rob the place, completely overlooking the billionaire in their midst.

“Since he was dressed casually and had an old Passat, they thought he was a nobody,” Haddad says.

Lemann’s three children by his current wife had a closer call. In 1999, a chauffeur was driving them to school in an armored car when kidnappers waylaid them on a Sao Paulo street. Eight gunshots at close range penetrated the window, wounding the chauffeur in the arm. He sped off, and the children escaped.

Few Public Appearances

Since then, Lemann and his wife, Susanna, have divided their time between Switzerland and Brazil, and Lemann has made few public appearances save for charity events. On those occasions, the still tennis-slim billionaire eats and drinks little.

The beer and burgers his companies sell are strictly for customers.

With assistance from Francisco Marcelino in Sao Paulo and Matthew G. Miller in New York. Editors: Michael Serrill, Robert Dieterich.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fabiola Moura in New York at fdemoura@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Serrill at mserrill@bloomberg.net.




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Occupy Wall Street’s Arrested Protesters May Demand Trials, Lawyer Says

By Tiffany Kary and Chris Dometsch - Oct 18, 2011 5:06 AM GMT+0700

Hundreds of Occupy Wall Street protesters arrested for demonstrating Oct. 1 on the Brooklyn Bridge may demand trials if charges against them aren’t dropped and some demonstrators are seeking the arrest of police officers, a month into the New York protest against economic inequality.

Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr.’s office is considering a request to drop charges, National Lawyers Guild attorney Martin Stolar said today outside the DA’s office after a meeting. Stolar said he hopes for a response in a few days.

“We are prepared to try every single case,” said Stolar, whose organization has offered to represent the protesters. ‘For any clients who want to take the option of, ‘I’m innocent -- I’m not pleading guilty,’ we’re prepared to provide them with pro bono counsel to exercise their right to go to trial.”

If the cases all are tried, they will tie up resources of New York’s courts, Stolar said. He said 765 people were arrested at the bridge. The DA’s office said it was 267 and all but 17 got desk appearance tickets.

“Every arrest that comes into the DA’s office is assessed individually, and charging decisions are based on the evidence and circumstances unique to each case and defendant,” Erin Duggan, a spokeswoman for the office, said in an e-mailed statement. The office regularly handles more than 100,000 arrests a year, according to its statistics. It has counted 499 since the protest started a month ago.


Two Investigations

Separately, at least two protesters’ complaints against the police are being investigated, according to their lawyer, Ronald L. Kuby, who is asking for the arrest of two police deputy inspectors.

The district attorney’s official corruption unit is investigating assault accusations against Deputy Inspector Anthony Bologna and Deputy Inspector Johnny Cardona, Kuby said. Bologna was involved in a pepper spray incident, and Cardona was involved in an incident on Oct. 14.

“There’s not much to investigate,” Kuby said today outside the DA’s office shortly after a meeting. “The videotape on its face makes out a case for third-degree assault. Had this been anyone other than a deputy police inspector, that person would have been arrested,”

“It’s your garden variety assault, it’s a Class A misdemeanor,” Kuby said of incident, in which his client Kaylee Dedrick, a 24-year old teacher’s aide from Albany, was pepper sprayed by Bologna.

Oct. 14 Incident

His other client, Felix Rivera Pitre, was struck by Cardona on Oct. 14, Kuby said.

“Deputy inspectors are there to make sure that patrol officers, who are younger and less experienced, don’t act like this,” Kuby said.

A police spokesman, Paul Browne, didn’t immediately reply to a message seeking comment on Stolar’s comments. Police Commissioner Ray Kelly said Oct. 7 that allegations against the police are under investigation by the department.

Five of the bridge protesters filed a civil rights complaint claiming police officers lured them onto the bridge’s roadway to trap and arrest them.

The protests have included an occupation of New York’s Zucotti Park and marches on the homes of individuals including JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chairman Jamie Dimon and News Corp.’s Rupert Murdoch.

Other Cities

On Oct. 15, a Saturday-night gathering in Times Square drew at least 6,000 people. The protests have been echoed in other U.S. cities as well as London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney and Toronto.

Protesters arrested have been accused of standing or sitting in the streets, overturning trash baskets and throwing bottles. At least one was detained after he allegedly knocked over a police scooter.

The Lawyers Guild is an organization of attorneys, legal workers, law students and “jailhouse lawyers,” it says on its website. “We represent progressive political movements, using the law to protect human rights above property interests and to attain social justice,” it says.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tiffany Kary in New York at tkary@bloomberg.net; Chris Dolmetsch in New York at cdolmetsch@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Pickering at jpickering@bloomberg.net.



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Citigroup Closing Proprietary-Trading Unit

By Donal Griffin - Oct 18, 2011 6:17 AM GMT+0700

Citigroup Inc. (C), the third-biggest U.S. lender, said it’s closing a proprietary-trading unit that incurred losses in the third quarter, as regulators prepare to restrict banks from making bets with shareholder cash.

The company is almost “two-thirds done” winding down the Equity Principal Strategies unit, Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach said yesterday in a conference call with analysts. Market turmoil caused a revenue decline for the unit, which suffered losses as it exited trading positions, Gerspach said.

Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit, 54, is shutting the business as lawmakers draft the so-called Volcker rule, which aims to restrict banks from making bets with shareholder money. Other firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) already have exited similar businesses. New York-based Citigroup partly blamed Equity Principal Strategies for a 73 percent slump in third-quarter revenue from equities-trading.

“Equity Principal Strategies is a de minimis part of Citi’s overall trading operation,” Danielle Romero-Apsilos, a spokeswoman, said in an e-mailed statement. “As it does not fit with Citi’s business model under the impending Volcker rule, it is in the process of being wound down.”

The proprietary-trading unit is headed by Sutesh Sharma, who’s based in London and previously worked for New York-based Morgan Stanley and Old Lane Partners LP, a hedge fund that Pandit part-owned before selling it to Citigroup in 2007. Sharma intends to leave the bank and start his own hedge fund, two people familiar with the matter said in August. The team manages about $2 billion, one of the people said. Sharma didn’t comment.

Revenue Tumbles

Sharma’s team is part of Citigroup’s equities-trading business, run by Derek Bandeen. The division’s revenue, excluding an accounting gain, tumbled to $289 million in the third quarter, from about $1.04 billion in the same period a year earlier. Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst with Credit Suisse Group AG, had estimated revenue of $825 million for the three months ended Sept. 30.

Equity-trading revenue at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets as of midyear, fell 15 percent for the same period, excluding a similar accounting benefit, the New York-based firm said in an Oct. 13 statement.

Citigroup’s proprietary-trading and equity-derivatives units were “largely responsible” for the slump and “difficult market conditions” drove the decline, the company said yesterday in a statement.

Regulators published the Volcker rule last week for public comment. Named for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, the rule would ban banks from trading for their own accounts. The firms would be allowed to make short-term trades for hedging and market-making. Pandit said last week that the rule may have struck “the right balance” between the two.

“It’s a volatile business they’re getting out of,” Gerard Cassidy, an analyst with Royal Bank of Canada who has an “outperform” rating on Citigroup shares, said in a phone interview. “If you’ve got a holding company that’s being regulated by U.S. bank regulators, being involved in higher-risk businesses may not be the best use of the bank’s capital.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Donal Griffin in New York at Dgriffin10@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Scheer at dscheer@bloomberg.net.




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China Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in 2 Years

By Bloomberg News - Oct 18, 2011 12:21 PM GMT+0700

China’s economy grew 9.1 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2009, driving stocks lower on concern that Europe’s debt crisis is dragging on the global recovery.

The gain was less than the median estimate of 9.3 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists and followed a 9.5 percent increase in the previous three months. The statistics bureau released the data in Beijing today.

Asia’s benchmark stock index fell as much as 2.3 percent after China’s growth was limited by tighter credit and weaker demand from Europe, where Germany yesterday rejected speculation that any immediate resolution of the region’s crisis is possible. A slowdown in the pace of China’s expansion, which remains five times that of the U.S., may help Premier Wen Jiabao to tame inflation that is above the government’s target.

“The latest developments in the euro zone have unnerved investors and many are fearful we’re going to see a repeat of the slump we saw at the end of 2008,” said Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of Asian ressearch at ING Groep NV (INGA) and a former World Bank economist. A “hard landing” for China would require a bigger “shock” to growth than is likely, he said.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.7 percent as of the 11:30 a.m. local time break in trading, the biggest loss in almost a month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 2.2 percent as of 1:06 p.m. in Tokyo. The yuan weakened 0.1 percent to 6.3780 per dollar.

Industrial production increased 13.8 percent in September from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said. That compared with the 13.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and a gain of 13.5 percent the previous month.

Rail Projects

Concerns about China’s economy are focused on bad-debt risks for banks, funding for small businesses, and the ability of local governments to repay money borrowed for infrastructure projects. China Business News reported today that rail projects have been halted due to cash shortages and the People’s Daily reported that some road building stalled for the same reason.

“The risk of a hard landing is a distant scenario,” said Liu Li-Gang, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) in Hong Kong. HSBC Holdings Plc and Bank of America Merrill Lynch echoed that view. Barclays Capital said the nation’s full-year expansion should be about 9 percent, with growth to slow to below 8.5 percent this quarter.

Fixed-asset investment excluding rural households climbed 24.9 percent in the first nine months, compared with the 24.8 percent estimated by economists and a 25 percent gain through August. Retail sales expanded 17.7 percent after a 17 percent increase in August.

Quarterly Expansion

Companies including BASF SE, the world’s largest chemicals company, are expanding in China as higher wages and consumption boost demand. The German company and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (600028) this month completed an expansion of an ethylene plant in the eastern city of Nanjing.

China’s economy grew 2.3 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, seasonally adjusted, the statistics bureau said today. That compared with a revised 2.4 percent gain for the second quarter.

Asian policy makers face a “delicate balancing act” with inflation remaining elevated while Europe’s crisis threatens growth, the International Monetary Fund said last week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office yesterday curbed expectations for a breakthrough at a summit in Brussels this weekend.

China’s Xinhua News Agency reported today that Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner discussed the global economic and financial situation and bilateral economic relations by phone. It didn’t elaborate.

Taming Inflation

China has raised interest rates five times over the past year, curbed lending and imposed limits on home purchases to rein in property and consumer prices and limit the risk of asset bubbles. Home prices gained in fewer than half of 70 cities monitored by the government in September from August as sales eased, statistics bureau data showed today.

While inflation was 6 percent for a fourth month in September, Deutsche Bank AG forecasts the rate will drop to 4 percent -- the government’s full-year target -- in December.

China’s money supply expanded at the slowest pace in almost a decade last month and new yuan lending was the smallest since December 2009, central bank data last week showed. A credit crunch in some parts of China prompted the State Council to this month unveil tax breaks and financial support for small businesses.

A property slump and slowing export growth are among the biggest risks, according to economists at UBS AG, Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604) and Societe Generale.

Beijing, Guangzhou

A drop in land prices in cities including Beijing and Guangzhou and falling land sales presage a slowdown in property investment, according to Nomura’s Hong Kong-based economist Zhang Zhiwei. Vincent Lo, chairman of Shanghai-based Shui On Land Ltd. (272), said last month one bank withdrew loan approvals for his company and other developers.

UBS economist Wang Tao sees a “global downturn or recession” as the main danger facing the world’s largest exporter in the next 12 months. GDP growth may drop to as low as 7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2012 as “a sharp deceleration” in foreign demand adds to weaker domestic production, according to Wang.

Overseas sales rose less than expected in September as shipment growth to Europe halved and the customs bureau warned of “severe challenges” as the global outlook dims.

That may weigh on China’s currency, which gained 18 percent against the dollar in the past four years, the most among 25 emerging-market currencies. Premier Wen pledged to maintain a “basically stable” exchange rate to protect exporters, the Xinhua news agency reported Oct. 15, citing remarks he made in the southern city of Guangzhou.

China’s economy expanded 10.4 percent last year. Growth will slow to 9.5 percent this year, six times the pace of the U.S. and euro area, according to International Monetary Fund estimates released last month.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net




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VMware Braces for ‘Difficult’ 2012 as Corporations Cut Technology Spending

By Dina Bass - Oct 18, 2011 5:16 AM GMT+0700

VMware Inc. (VMW), the biggest maker of programs that let computers run multiple operating systems, said it’s bracing for a “difficult” 2012 because corporations may slow spending on technology, including the company’s software.

On a conference call today to discuss quarterly earnings, Chief Financial Officer Mark Peek said next year will be “challenging.” Net income in the third quarter more than doubled to $177.5 million, or 41 cents a share, from $84.6 million, or 20 cents, VMware said. Excluding some costs, profit was 53 cents, compared with the 49-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.


VMware, based in Palo Alto, California, has benefited as companies invest in data centers to run software in the so- called cloud, or stored on the Internet instead of their own server computers. Still, Peek said information technology spending is likely to weaken next year, and VMware’s results will be compared against strong numbers from 2011. The company also plans to invest heavily.

“It will be a year of challenging revenue comparables and considerable investments,” Peek said on the conference call.

Sales in the first quarter will be $1 billion to $1.03 billion, the company said on the call. Analysts had expected sales of $1.03 billion.

VMware, majority-owned by EMC Corp., slipped in extended trading after the report. Earlier, the stock declined 3.8 percent to $89.52 at the close in New York. The shares are little changed this year.

Unearned Revenue

Sales in the recent period rose 32 percent to $941.9 million, while unearned revenue, a measure of future business, was $2.2 billion -- almost $100 million above the estimate of Robert Breza, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

“The overall numbers were good,” said Breza, who is based in Minneapolis and rates VMware shares “outperform.” “The most impressive number is when you add in the total unearned revenue. It’s a pretty strong showing that should give people confidence going forward.”

The company signed large contracts, renewed existing ones and saw greater interest in new products such as vSphere 5, which improves server performance, Adam Holt, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note today.

Fourth-quarter sales will be $1.03 billion to $1.06 billion, VMware said. Breza said some shareholders may be concerned that the company is being too conservative with its forecast. Though the range is in line with or above the average analyst estimate of about $1.03 billion, some investors may have wanted the company to issue a higher projection, he said.

Breza said the forecast aptly reflects slow economic growth.

“Right now, put a number out there you are going to beat,” he said. “Don’t put out any stretch goals.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Dina Bass in Seattle at dbass2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net



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Losing $13.5 Billion to Piracy Spurs Microsoft-Led Europe Legal Push: Tech

By Katie Linsell - Oct 18, 2011 6:01 AM GMT+0700

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) are among software companies that lost $13.5 billion to program pirates and counterfeiters in Europe last year. Their message to lawmakers: Learn from the U.S. and punish the thieves.

As the European Union considers changes to its intellectual property rules, it needs to make sure that higher damage payments deter pirates, who often benefit because of insufficient fines, said Warren Weertman, manager of legal affairs for Washington- based Business Software Alliance. The group’s members include Microsoft, Adobe, Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Siemens AG. (SIE)

“Lump sum damages would act more as a deterrent than having two actuaries fight it out in a costly court case,” Weertman said in a phone interview from London. “It’s a vicious circle where the damages aren’t deterrent enough.”

In Europe, about 35 percent of software deployed on personal computers was pirated every year since 2007, compared with 20 percent in the U.S., according a May study by BSA and researcher IDC. Ben Allgrove, a partner at law firm Baker & McKenzie LLP in London, said the gap is a result of the legal challenges for copyright owners.

“Most EU countries do not have statutory damages and right holders are forced to prove actual loss,” Allgrove said in an interview. “There is a material difference between monetary awards in the U.S. and many other markets,” he said.

France Tops List

Last year, France lost $2.6 billion in pirated software, while Germany lost $2.1 billion, Italy $1.9 billion and the U.K. $1.8 billion. The four nations were among the 10 most pirated worldwide. Across the EU, Bulgaria recorded the highest rate of software piracy in 2010 at 65 percent, while Luxembourg had the lowest at 20 percent, according to BSA.

Globally, the value of pirated software rose 14 percent to $58.8 billion last year, almost double the total in 2003. In China, almost four out of five programs in use are pirated, and 65 percent in Russia is stolen, according to BSA.

The European Commission, the 27-nation EU’s executive arm, last year published a report showing that some provisions of the current law, which was introduced in 2004, need “further clarification and have resulted in diverging interpretations at national level,” said Chantal Hughes, a spokeswoman for EU Internal Markets Commissioner Michel Barnier. The commission is also examining how to deal with the surge in online piracy.

Lobbying Efforts

Microsoft, the world’s biggest software company, isn’t aiming to export the U.S. system around the world, said Chris Oldknow, the company’s enforcement policy counsel. The risk for pirates is “greater that they’ll wind up having to pay a substantial amount in America,” Oldknow said in an interview. “And lo and behold, America has the lowest rate of software piracy in the world.”

Microsoft told the commission in March as part of a consultation that lump sum or multiple damages, only available to some extent in 10 smaller EU member states such as Belgium, Austria and Malta, should be extended to the other 17 countries.

Fair damages should include lost profits and costs of enforcement, additional damages in the amount of economic benefit of the infringer, and fixed-sum or multiple damages, Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft said. Corporate end users may see an “economic benefit” in copying rather than buying software if they are only made to buy the legitimate product once caught or pay damages equal to the publisher’s lost profit, the company said.

Under Licensing

Software firms such as engineering and design software company Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) say they also suffer from so-called under licensing, where clients only pay for some of the programs used.

“It’s a significant issue that does affect our bottom line and we take it very seriously,” said spokesman Noah Cole. Autodesk, based in San Rafael, California, uses internal technology to detect unauthorized use of its software.

The commission may make proposals on how to change the current law in the first half of 2012, spokeswoman Hughes said.

“Some claim that damages awards do not currently appear to effectively dissuade potential infringers from engaging in illegal activities,” she said. “The commission services will examine if changes are necessary.”

In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, there are neither statutory nor punitive damages but it is up to the discretion of the court whether to fine, with no fixed amount, Weertman said. The highest total settlement in an “end-user case” was 1.5 million euros, he said. In the U.K.’s criminal courts, the maximum statutory fine is 10,000 pounds ($15,800) and punitive damages are not recognized, he said.

Punitive Damages

In the U.S., punitive damages are often awarded in piracy cases, with a maximum rate per infringement of $150,000 if it is found to be willful, according to the BSA.

The low rate of piracy in Belgium, one of the EU countries where lump-sum or multiple damages are possible, backs up the software companies’ claim. About 25 percent of software deployed on PCs in the country was pirated in 2010, below the EU average of 35 percent.

“Belgium courts have been rather severe with software pirates by condemning them to pay damages which are double of the license fees,” Stijn Debaene, a lawyer at Field Fisher Waterhouse LLP in Brussels, said in an interview.

In the U.S., “counterfeiters can be subject to crippling, bankrupting sorts of penalties,” Scott Bain, the litigation counsel for the Software Information Industry Association, said in a phone interview from Washington D.C. The body’s members include Google Inc. (GOOG), Oracle Corp. (ORCL) and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) “The position of virtually any copyright owner in the U.S. is that they wish the European institutions would have even better damages laws.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Katie Linsell in London at Klinsell@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kenneth Wong at kwong11@bloomberg.net




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Wall St. Protesters May Demand Trials: Lawyer

By Tiffany Kary and Chris Dometsch - Oct 18, 2011 5:06 AM GMT+0700

Hundreds of Occupy Wall Street protesters arrested for demonstrating Oct. 1 on the Brooklyn Bridge may demand trials if charges against them aren’t dropped and some demonstrators are seeking the arrest of police officers, a month into the New York protest against economic inequality.

Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr.’s office is considering a request to drop charges, National Lawyers Guild attorney Martin Stolar said today outside the DA’s office after a meeting. Stolar said he hopes for a response in a few days.

“We are prepared to try every single case,” said Stolar, whose organization has offered to represent the protesters. ‘For any clients who want to take the option of, ‘I’m innocent -- I’m not pleading guilty,’ we’re prepared to provide them with pro bono counsel to exercise their right to go to trial.”

If the cases all are tried, they will tie up resources of New York’s courts, Stolar said. He said 765 people were arrested at the bridge. The DA’s office said it was 267 and all but 17 got desk appearance tickets.

“Every arrest that comes into the DA’s office is assessed individually, and charging decisions are based on the evidence and circumstances unique to each case and defendant,” Erin Duggan, a spokeswoman for the office, said in an e-mailed statement. The office regularly handles more than 100,000 arrests a year, according to its statistics. It has counted 499 since the protest started a month ago.

Two Investigations

Separately, at least two protesters’ complaints against the police are being investigated, according to their lawyer, Ronald L. Kuby, who is asking for the arrest of two police deputy inspectors.

The district attorney’s official corruption unit is investigating assault accusations against Deputy Inspector Anthony Bologna and Deputy Inspector Johnny Cardona, Kuby said. Bologna was involved in a pepper spray incident, and Cardona was involved in an incident on Oct. 14.

“There’s not much to investigate,” Kuby said today outside the DA’s office shortly after a meeting. “The videotape on its face makes out a case for third-degree assault. Had this been anyone other than a deputy police inspector, that person would have been arrested,”

“It’s your garden variety assault, it’s a Class A misdemeanor,” Kuby said of incident, in which his client Kaylee Dedrick, a 24-year old teacher’s aide from Albany, was pepper sprayed by Bologna.

Oct. 14 Incident

His other client, Felix Rivera Pitre, was struck by Cardona on Oct. 14, Kuby said.

“Deputy inspectors are there to make sure that patrol officers, who are younger and less experienced, don’t act like this,” Kuby said.

A police spokesman, Paul Browne, didn’t immediately reply to a message seeking comment on Stolar’s comments. Police Commissioner Ray Kelly said Oct. 7 that allegations against the police are under investigation by the department.

Five of the bridge protesters filed a civil rights complaint claiming police officers lured them onto the bridge’s roadway to trap and arrest them.

The protests have included an occupation of New York’s Zucotti Park and marches on the homes of individuals including JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chairman Jamie Dimon and News Corp.’s Rupert Murdoch.

Other Cities

On Oct. 15, a Saturday-night gathering in Times Square drew at least 6,000 people. The protests have been echoed in other U.S. cities as well as London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney and Toronto.

Protesters arrested have been accused of standing or sitting in the streets, overturning trash baskets and throwing bottles. At least one was detained after he allegedly knocked over a police scooter.

The Lawyers Guild is an organization of attorneys, legal workers, law students and “jailhouse lawyers,” it says on its website. “We represent progressive political movements, using the law to protect human rights above property interests and to attain social justice,” it says.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tiffany Kary in New York at tkary@bloomberg.net; Chris Dolmetsch in New York at cdolmetsch@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Pickering at jpickering@bloomberg.net.




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New Yorkers Back Occupy Wall Street Protesters, Poll Shows

By Esmé E. Deprez - Oct 18, 2011 3:30 AM GMT+0700

Occupy Wall Street, the protest that has spread from Lower Manhattan to as far as Rome and Hong Kong, is supported by most New Yorkers, according to a Quinnipiac University survey.

Sixty-seven percent of New York City voters said they agree with the protesters’ views, while 23 percent don’t, the school’s Polling Institute said today. Support ranged from 81 percent among registered Democrats to 58 percent among independents and 35 percent from Republicans. By 72 percent to 24 percent, voters said law-abiding demonstrators can stay as long as they want.

The protests that began on Sept. 17 have inspired thousands to take to the streets in 100 U.S. cities and on four continents worldwide, according to organizers. Participants say they represent “the 99 percent,” a reference to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz’s study showing the richest 1 percent of Americans control 40 percent of U.S. wealth.

“Critics complain that no one can figure out what the protesters are protesting,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Hamden, Connecticut-based institute. “But seven out of 10 New Yorkers say they understand and most agree with the anti- Wall Street views of the protesters.”

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,068 registered voters by telephone Oct. 12-16. The results had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Protecting Speech

Mayor Michael Bloomberg has said he supports the protesters’ free-speech rights as long as they don’t violate the law. He said he’ll defer to the owner of Zuccotti Park, Brookfield Office Properties Inc., to determine how long the demonstrators can stay. Brookfield’s park rules forbid camping, lying on benches, and using tarps and tents.

A confrontation between demonstrators and New York City police was avoided last week after Brookfield postponed a cleanup of the park, at the intersection of Broadway and Liberty Street near the site of the World Trade Center.

“I’m 100 percent in favor of protecting -- 1,000 percent in favor -- of giving people rights to say things, but also we have to protect those who don’t want to say anything,” Bloomberg said today at a press briefing in Queens.

“There are places where I think it’s appropriate to express yourself and then there are other places that are appropriate to set up a tent city, and they don’t necessarily have to be one and the same,” he said. “The Constitution doesn’t protect tents, it protects speech and assembly.”

Millionaire Tax

In a separate poll, almost three-quarters of New York state voters said they favor higher taxes on residents with at least $1 million in annual income, according to a Siena College Research Institute survey released today. A higher levy was backed by 83 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Republicans.

An existing tax adds a temporary surcharge on New York’s married couples earning more than $300,000, and singles earning more than $200,000. It’s set to expire Dec. 31. Governor Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, and Senate Republicans, who hold a majority, made clear they wouldn’t renew it.

The telephone survey of 800 registered voters by Loudonville, New York-based Siena, conducted Oct. 10-12, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

New York’s mayor is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

To contact the reporter on this story: Esmé E. Deprez in New York at edeprez@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Tannenbaum at mtannen@bloomberg.net




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Private Equity Has $937B in ‘Dry Powder’

By Anne-Sylvaine Chassany - Oct 18, 2011 12:29 AM GMT+0700

Private-equity firms are sitting on $937 billion in unspent capital, with more than 20 percent in funds that usually would have to invest the money within about two years, according to Preqin Ltd.

Funds raised in 2008 have $204 billion in so-called dry powder as economic uncertainty and a tight deal market led them to delay some investing, the London-based research firm said today in a statement. With an average investment period of five years, these funds will be under pressure to put the money to work and avoid asking clients for extensions, Preqin said.

“Recent years have been characterized by private-equity managers delaying their investments for longer than before,” Alex Jones, a Preqin analyst, said in the statement. “The industry could see a repeat of the flurry of deals and exit activity that took place throughout 2010 as managers put this cash to work and realize their investments.”

Private-equity firms are struggling to make acquisitions amid a reluctance by banks to lend. Leveraged buyouts have fallen 12 percent to $87.2 billion this year from the same period a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

About 41 percent of dry powder is held by leveraged-buyout funds, according to Preqin. LBO funds raised in 2008 have about $91.5 billion in unspent commitments, it said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in London at achassany@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net




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Euro Leaders’ Crisis Campaign Bogs Down

By James G. Neuger and Tony Czuczka - Oct 18, 2011 7:20 AM GMT+0700

Europe’s options for overcoming the debt crisis narrowed as Germany doused expectations of a breakthrough at this weekend’s summit and central bankers balked at extended bond purchases.

European stocks and the euro reversed initial gains yesterday, slumping after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office knocked down what it called “dreams” that the Oct. 23 summit will be the last word in taming the crisis. Christian Noyer, head of France’s central bank, ruled out a ramping up of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program as part of a multi-pronged strategy to shield countries like Italy.

While Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers pressed European Union leaders to set out a strategy by the end of the week, divisions flared over an emerging plan to avoid a Greek default, bolster banks and curb contagion.

“We’re really in a bind here,” Carl Weinberg, founder and chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said in an interview with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” “We have a lot of egos, a lot of national interests, a lot of political considerations, and that’s just hampering us from getting to a solution.”

The ECB said yesterday it bought 2.2 billion euros ($3 billion) of bonds last week, the least since it restarted the market support program in August over the objections of Germans on its council. While looking to exit the bond-buying business, the ECB also opposes the use of its balance sheet to boost the government-financed 440 billion-euro rescue fund with enough firepower to do that job.

‘Systemic Threats’

Moody’s Investor Service said today that while Europe’s central banks have “very substantial capacity” to support euro-area lenders and sovereign-debt markets, interventions are likely to remain limited “unless systemic threats accelerate further.”

The euro traded at $1.3743 as of 8:02 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3738 in New York yesterday, when it slid 1 percent.

“We don’t see how the EU officials will be able to present a solution by the weekend which will remotely approach the current expectations,” Lutz Karpowitz, a senior currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in a research note yesterday.

Merkel’s spokesmen Steffen Seibert stoked the disagreement by saying that EU leaders won’t provide the complete fix that global policy makers are pushing for at their Brussels summit.

Merkel on ‘Dreams’

Merkel has made it clear that “dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won’t be able to be fulfilled,” Seibert told reporters in Berlin. The search for an end to the crisis “surely extends well into next year.”

Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers concluded weekend talks in Paris endorsing parts of Europe’s emerging crisis plan. Providing a week to act, they set the Oct. 23 meeting of European leaders as the deadline.

On the summit agenda is how any recapitalization of Europe’s banks “might be carried out in a coordinated way” and how to make the European Financial Stability Facility, the EU’s rescue fund for indebted states, as effective as possible, Seibert said. The leaders will also discuss aid for Greece and ways to tighten economic and financial policy, he said.

Stocks Slide

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index reversed an advance of as much as 1.5 percent yesterday and lost 1 percent.

In Greece, parliamentary debate is due to begin today on a fresh round of austerity measures amid public protests and labor-union unrest. Finance Ministry workers began a 10-day strike yesterday, complicating the government’s efforts to collect taxes and highlighting the mood in Europe’s most- indebted country as Greek lawmakers face another vote on fiscal measures due in two days. That’s a showdown Prime Minister George Papandreou needs to win to ease the way for more foreign financing and stave off default.

Across Europe, obstacles to an accord include resistance by bankers to a deeper restructuring of Greek debt and discord among Europe’s capitals over how to multiply the firepower of their bailout fund and recapitalize financial institutions. At stake is confidence in the 17-nation currency union that Merkel stresses she wants to preserve.

Bankers Push Back

As EU officials move toward an agreement that may include bigger losses on Greek debt holdings and the forced recapitalization of lenders, bankers are pushing back. Options include altering a July accord struck with investors for a 21 percent net-present-value reduction in Greek debt holdings. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday that Greece’s debt may need to be written down by more than that level.

Greek bond losses of as much as 50 percent envisaged in Europe’s plan may be accompanied by a pledge to rule out debt restructurings in other countries that received bailouts, such as Portugal, to persuade investors that Europe has mastered the crisis, people familiar with the discussion said on Oct. 14.

In the works for the summit is a five-point plan foreseeing a solution for Greece, bolstering of the firepower of the EFSF, fresh capital for banks, a new push to boost competitiveness and consideration of European treaty changes to tighten economic management.

Forcing lenders to boost capital would be counterproductive, and getting investors to accept larger losses Greek holdings difficult, Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said on Oct. 13. Ackermann, who chairs the Washington-based Institute of International Finance and spearheaded the July accord, will travel to Brussels this week for talks with policy makers.

“The problems in the eurozone are chronic” and “won’t go away,” said Nouriel Roubini, chairman and co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC. He said the EFSF needs to be more than four times its current size to be effective.

To contact the reporters on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net; Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net




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IBM Q3 Revenue Misses Estimates on Slow Demand

By Sarah Frier - Oct 18, 2011 7:36 AM GMT+0700

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), the biggest computer-services company, reported third- quarter sales that missed analysts’ estimates on slowing revenue growth at its software, hardware and services businesses.

Sales climbed 7.8 percent to $26.2 billion, Armonk, New York-based IBM said today in a statement. Analysts predicted $26.3 billion, the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Chief Executive Officer Sam Palmisano is focusing on areas such as business analytics, emerging markets and cloud computing to boost sales amid sluggish economic expansion. The U.S. economy grew at a 1.3 percent pace in the second quarter following a 0.4 percent gain in the previous three months, the weakest performance in two years.

“Because they didn’t beat, the stock’s going to trade down; the expectation is pretty high for this name,” said Josh Olson, an analyst with Edward Jones & Co. in Des Peres, Missouri, who has a “buy” rating on the stock. A slowdown in hardware revenue growth is occurring “sooner than I expected.”

It was the second time in nine quarters that IBM missed sales estimates. Hardware sales growth slowed to 4 percent from 17 percent in the second quarter. Sales growth at IBM’s services business slowed to 8 percent from 10 percent, while revenue expansion at its software unit decelerated to 13 percent from 17 percent.

Record Last Week

IBM fell as much as 4.1 percent to $179.02 in extended trading after closing at $186.59 in New York today. It has risen 27 percent this year as of the close of regular trading.

The stock reached a record of $190.53 on Oct. 14, and at least three analysts revised their price estimates to $200 a share or higher. In September, IBM passed Microsoft in market value based on closing prices for the first time since 1996 before the companies switched back.

“This is a name that you’re expecting in this environment to perform very strong,” said Brad Zelnick, a Macquarie Capital USA analyst who added coverage of IBM last week. “Any deceleration in signings or any significant drain on backlog is going to send shares down.”

Contract signings for services, which make up about 60 percent of IBM revenue, were $12.3 billion, compared with $14.3 billion in the second quarter.

Projects Software

The company projects software will make up half of total profit in 2015. Analytics software, which helps businesses predict trends, is expected to draw $16 billion in sales by 2015, while cloud computing will draw $7 billion.

Smarter Planet, Palmisano’s initiative to provide digital monitoring of anything from roads to hospitals to make them more efficient, will grow to a $10 billion business, the company has said.

Revenue from growth markets, such as Brazil, India and China, climbed 19 percent last quarter. Sales from the regions will make up at least 30 percent of revenue by 2015, the company has said, up from 21 percent in 2010.

“Growth market performance was terrific across all segments,” Chief Financial Officer Mark Loughridge said on a call with analysts and investors.

It was the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in these markets, and it led revenue growth in all business segments, Loughridge said. IBM opened up 80 new branches, he said.

‘Footprint’ Important

“They’re very ahead of where the big markets will be in a few years, and it’s very important for them to have a footprint there,” Ed Maguire, an analyst at Credit Agricole Securities USA, said in an interview. He has an “outperform” rating on the shares.

Palmisano has said he plans to spend about $20 billion on acquisitions between 2010 and 2015. So far the company has spent about $3 billion in acquisitions related to cloud computing, said Steven Tomasco, an IBM spokesman.

Because of IBM’s global position and broad set of computer services, it is “about as close as you can get to a technology index fund,” Maguire said. “They’re a bellwether for the rest of the market.”

Accenture Plc and Oracle Corp. (ORCL), which compete with IBM in selling services to technology companies, both benefited from increased spending by business clients in their most recent quarters.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Frier in New York at sfrier1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Elstrom at pelstrom@bloomberg.net




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AIG Hosts Event at ‘Ultra Luxury’ Resort

By Noah Buhayar - Oct 18, 2011 1:40 AM GMT+0700

American International Group Inc. (AIG), the insurer majority owned by the U.S. after a 2008 bailout, is hosting an event at a California facility that advertises “the amenities of an ultra luxury hotel.”

The American General unit assembled about 65 people who distribute its products for a two-and-a-half-day stay this week at the Resort at Pelican Hill in Newport Beach, California, said Larry Mark, a spokesman for AIG’s life insurance division. Nine AIG managers were also sent to the resort to make presentations, Mark said in a e-mail. He declined to say the cost of the event for the insurer.

“It is important for these speakers, as well as the eight field representatives in attendance to spend quality, one-on-one time with our key distribution partners to ensure they understand our offerings,” he said. “It is standard practice in the financial-services industry to hold such business development, leadership meetings.”

AIG resumed such conferences about two years ago, after being rebuked by lawmakers in 2008 for spending $440,000 to send about 100 advisers to the St. Regis resort in Monarch Beach, California. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche is working to expand sales as he seeks private investors to replace government capital.

“We are back to the business of being in business and we’re in the marketplace competing,” said Mark.

Senator Max Baucus, a Democrat from Montana, in October 2008 called AIG’s event that year an “insult to taxpayers.”

Fazio’s Course

Pelican Hill has “Palladian-inspired architecture from Northern Italy,” 204 bungalows, 128 villas, a spa and 36-holes of golf designed by Tom Fazio on a property with views of the Pacific Ocean, according to the resort’s website.

A “Garden Double Queen” room is available for $395 per night today and tomorrow, and an “Ocean Four Bedroom Villa” costs $1,150 a night, according to the resort’s online-booking system. Kate Starr, a spokeswoman for Pelican Hill, didn’t immediately return phone calls seeking comment.

AIG was bailed out in 2008 in a rescue that swelled to $182.3 billion. The insurer paid back the balance on a Federal Reserve credit line in January, and the Treasury exchanged its preferred interest for 92 percent of the company’s common stock. That stake was cut to 77 percent in a May share sale.

To contact the reporter on this story: Noah Buhayar in New York at nbuhayar@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at dkraut2@bloomberg.net




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U.S. Stocks Drop as Germany Damps Optimism Over Crisis, Wells Fargo Slumps

By Rita Nazareth - Oct 18, 2011 4:09 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image U.S. Stocks Slump as Germany Damps Optimism on Crisis Soluti

Trader Edward Curran works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photographer: Richard Drew/AP

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks declined, after the biggest weekly gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 2009, as financial shares slumped and the German government damped optimism of a quick fix to Europe’s debt crisis. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Barton Biggs, managing partner and co-founder of Traxis Partners LP, talks about his investment strategy and stock market outlook. He speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)


U.S. stocks declined, after the biggest weekly gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 2009, as financial shares slumped and the German government damped optimism of a quick fix to Europe’s debt crisis.

Banks in the S&P 500 tumbled 6.3 percent as a group. Citigroup Inc. (C) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) slipped at least 1.6 percent as revenue dropped amid economic weakness and market turmoil linked to Europe. Alcoa Inc. (AA) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) retreated more than 3 percent to pace losses among companies most-tied to the economy. Gannett Co. sank 8.7 percent after profit fell as newspaper advertising declined.

The S&P 500 decreased 1.9 percent to 1,200.86 at 4 p.m. New York time. The benchmark gauge for American equities rallied 6 percent last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 247.49 points, or 2.1 percent, to 11,397 today.

“European leaders want to strike the right tone that they will fix things, but not create too much expectations,” Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Fort Lee, New Jersey-based Palisade Capital Management LLC, which manages $3.4 billion, said in a telephone interview. “If we don’t have a healthy financial system, it’s going to be difficult for there to be a sustainable economic recovery. In addition, the market is selling off because we got near the top of the trading range.”

The S&P 500 rose last week amid optimism over corporate earnings and steps by European leaders to support the region’s banks. It surged 11 percent from Oct. 3, its lowest close in more than a year, through Oct. 14. The rebound brought the gauge close to the top of a price range between 1,074.77 and 1,230.71, where it’s traded for more than two months.

No Complete Fix

Germany said European Union leaders won’t provide the complete fix to the euro-area debt crisis that global policy makers are pushing for at an Oct. 23 summit. Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers concluded weekend talks in Paris endorsing parts of an emerging plan to avoid a Greek default, bolster banks and curb contagion.

“There’s not going to be a quick fix to the problems in Europe,” Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at San Francisco-based Wells Fargo Funds Management, which oversees $215 billion, said in a telephone interview. “This economic recovery will be uneven in terms of geography and the sectors that are really benefiting from the slow growth.”

U.S. equity futures fell before the open of regular trading as data showed that manufacturing in the New York region contracted in October at a faster pace than forecast. Separate figures showed that industrial production in the U.S. advanced in September.

Alcoa, Caterpillar

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to the economy lost 3.1 percent. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, a proxy for the economy, retreated 2.8 percent. Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, slumped 6.6 percent to $9.58. The shares had the biggest decline in the Dow. Caterpillar retreated 3.1 percent to $81.52.

The KBW Bank Index decreased 3.9 percent as 23 of its 24 stocks fell. The index jumped 6.9 percent last week.

Wells Fargo dropped 8.4 percent to $24.42. Investors shrugged off the record profit posted by Wells Fargo today and focused on a 6 percent decline in revenue to $19.6 billion. That missed the $20.2 billion estimate of analysts as low interest rates cut into profit on loans. Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf is focusing on costs as the 9.1 percent U.S. jobless rate and slow economy keep borrowers on the sidelines.

“The economic recovery has been more sluggish and uneven than anyone anticipated,” Stumpf said in a statement. “We can’t change the economic environment, yet we have worked hard to control the variables we can.”

Citigroup Slumps

Citigroup retreated 1.7 percent to $27.93, even as its quarterly profit beat analysts’ estimates, helped by an accounting gain and a reduction in losses tied to soured loans. Excluding the accounting adjustment, revenue fell 8 percent.

Gannett slumped 8.7 percent to $9.99. The owner of 82 newspapers and 23 television stations reported third-quarter profit decreased 1.6 percent as publishing revenue, including advertising and circulation, declined 5.3 percent.

American Airlines parent AMR Corp. (AMR) dropped 6.1 percent to $2.76, after falling as much as 11 percent today, triggering a brief halt in trading. American Airlines said it recessed negotiations with its pilots union today after making “significant progress” toward a contract that would end more than five years of talks.

Halliburton Co. (HAL), the world’s second-largest oilfield services provider, fell 7.9 percent to $34.48 on concern about oil-price volatility and the slower-than-expected growth in its international business.

M&A Deal

El Paso Corp. (EP) surged 25 percent, the most since 2002, to $24.45, as Kinder Morgan Inc. agreed to buy the company for $21.1 billion. The cash and stock offer is valued at $26.87 per El Paso share, or 37 percent more than the Oct. 14 closing price, Houston-based Kinder Morgan said in a statement yesterday.

Utility, telephone and consumer staples providers, which are least-tied to the economy, outperformed the S&P 500 today.

Stock market bulls and bears agree on at least one thing. The highest valuations for makers of household goods since 2008 signal the best is over after the industry rose more than any other group this year.

Bears say the easy money has been made in so-called defensive shares should the world slip into a recession. Bulls favor companies with faster earnings growth and cheaper valuations. The last time household-goods producers were this expensive versus the MSCI World (MXWO), stocks were about to begin an advance in which bank, mining and industrial stocks jumped more than 137 percent, while consumer staples rose 76 percent.

‘Too Much Money’

“You’ve got too much money that has been bet that we’re going into a recession,” said Jeffrey Saut, who helps oversee $300 billion as chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida. “If we don’t go into a recession, you’ll get a whole rotation out of these highly valued defensive stocks into more aggressive stocks.”

Barton Biggs, who bought stocks when the market bottomed in March 2009, boosted bullish bets on equities in his Traxis Global Equity Macro Fund on improving U.S. economic data. The fund’s net long position rose to 65 percent from 40 percent about a month ago, according to Biggs, the founder of Traxis Partners LP, in an interview with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” program. Biggs said on Sept. 22 that bullish bets at all Traxis funds had fallen to 20 percent.

“I’m inclined to stay where I am, which is moderately, cowardly bullish,” Biggs said. “The thing that makes me want to hang in there is that the high frequency economic news from the U.S. has definitely improved. It’s gotten pretty good.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net



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Stocks, Euro Weaken as Germany Damps Expectations on Debt-Crisis Solution

By Rob Verdonck and Rita Nazareth - Oct 18, 2011 3:29 AM GMT+0700

Global stocks and the euro fell, retreating after their best weekly gains in more than two years, as Germany damped expectations for a fast resolution to Europe’s debt crisis and a report showed New York-area manufacturing shrank more than forecast. Treasuries advanced.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 1.9 percent to 1,200.86 at the 4 p.m. close in New York as Wells Fargo & Co. sank after reporting a drop in revenue. The MSCI All-Country World Index slipped 1.2 percent following last week’s 5.4 percent rally. The euro, which strengthened 3.8 percent versus the dollar last week, weakened 1.1 percent against the U.S. currency today. Lead, coffee and gasoline led losses in materials tracked by the S&P GSCI Index. Treasury 10-year notes rose, pushing yields down nine basis points to 2.16 percent

Equities and the euro headed lower as Steffen Seibert, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief spokesman, said European Union leaders won’t provide the quick ending to the debt crisis that global policy makers are pushing for at an Oct. 23 summit. Optimism that the region’s officials were developing a plan to help banks weather losses on sovereign debt propelled gains in stocks and the euro last week.

“It’s optimism punctuated by reality,” said Hayes Miller, the Boston-based head of asset allocation in North America at Baring Asset Management Inc., which oversees $51.6 billion. “It’s not in the Germans’ interest to offer up a bailout package on the terms that the market would like.”

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations concluded weekend talks in Paris by endorsing parts of Europe’s emerging plan to avoid a Greek default, bolster banks and curb contagion. They set the Oct. 23 meeting of European leaders in Brussels as the deadline.

Retreat After Weekly Rally

The S&P 500 fell after last week’s 6 percent surge, its best gain since July 2009. Wells Fargo slumped 8.4 percent, the most in more than two months, as the largest U.S. home lender reported a drop in third-quarter revenue and narrower margins, even as profit climbed 22 percent to a record $4.06 billion. Citigroup Inc. fell 1.7 percent, erasing an early rally of as much as 3.8 percent. Profit at the bank rose 74 percent, beating analysts’ estimates, following a $1.9 billion accounting gain that reduced the impact of lower trading and investment-banking revenue.

Alcoa Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co. and 3M Co. sank at least 3.8 percent to lead declines in all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which tumbled 247.49 points, or 2.1 percent, to 11,397. El Paso Corp. (EP) surged 25 percent, the most in nine years, as Kinder Morgan Inc. agreed to buy the company for $21.1 billion in a deal that would create the largest U.S. natural-gas pipeline network.

International Business Machines Corp. lost 3.3 percent in extended trading after reporting revenue that trailed analyst estimates.

Trading Range

The S&P 500 is still up 9.3 percent from a 13-month low on Oct. 3 and ended last week at 1,224.58, above levels where rallies stopped in August and September. The gauge closed at 1,218.89 on Aug. 31 before dropping 4.4 percent in the next three sessions, and ended at 1,216.01 on Sept. 16 before losing 7.1 percent by Sept. 22. The index has fluctuated intraday between a high of 1,230.71 and a low of 1,074.77 since Aug. 5.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rose to minus 8.5 from minus 8.8 in September. Economists projected an improvement to minus 4, based on the median forecast. Readings less than zero signal companies in the New York, northern New Jersey, and southern Connecticut region are cutting back. A separate report showed U.S. industrial production advanced 0.2 percent in September on growing demand for automobiles and computers, matching economists’ estimates.

Commodities, Dollar

Copper fell from a three-week high, slipping 1.9 percent to $3.3430 a pound in New York. Lead, Brent crude oil, coffee and gasoline dropped at least 2 percent lead declines in 18 of 24 commodities tracked by the S&P GSCI. The commodities index slipped 0.8 percent after surging 5.2 percent last week, its biggest gain of the year.

The euro weakened to $1.3728. The dollar strengthened against 13 of 16 major peers and the Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency against six major peers, increased 0.8 percent to 77.237.

The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond fell 11 basis points to 3.13 percent.

The cost to protect U.S. bank debt climbed. Credit-default swaps on Wells Fargo, based in San Francisco, added 7 basis points to 152 basis points at 11 a.m. in New York, according to data provider CMA. Those tied to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. climbed 22.5 basis points to 361. A benchmark gauge of U.S. corporate credit risk also rose.

European Equities

About seven stocks declined for each that gained in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which retreated 1 percent after gaining for three straight weeks. Automobile companies led losses, with Daimler AG and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG down more than 3 percent. BP Plc appreciated 2.2 percent after saying Anadarko Petroleum Corp. will pay $4 billion to settle all claims over last year’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Benchmark German 10-year bunds rose, sending their yields down 10 basis points to 2.098 percent. The yield on 10-year French debt widened to a record 95.6 basis points above German bunds.

Ten-year Spanish bond yields advanced for a sixth day, adding seven basis points to 5.32 percent.

The yield on the Portuguese 10-year security rose 14 basis points to 11.79 percent, with seven days of losses in the bond driving the level up from 11.21 percent.

Emerging Markets

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased 0.1 percent for a ninth straight gain, the longest winning streak in 16 months. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong climbed 2.8 percent and the Kospi Index (KOSPI) jumped 1.6 percent in Seoul. South Korea’s won climbed against all 16 major peers.

South Korean Finance Minister Bahk Jae Wan said at the Paris meeting the Asian nation’s economy is performing better than expected, while data tomorrow may show China’s gross domestic product increased 9.3 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the ninth consecutive quarter of expansion above 9 percent.

A U.S. Senate vote to punish China for depressing its currency is the latest legislative ritual in which the message may be as important as the proposed sanction. U.S. House Speaker John Boehner practically declared the measure dead on arrival in the Republican-run chamber after the Senate’s 63-35 vote last week to let U.S. manufacturers seek duties on Chinese imports if they prove they were harmed by manipulation of the yuan. Boehner, of Ohio, voiced “grave concerns” the measure may trigger a trade war.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rob Verdonck in London at rverdonck@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Gilbert at magilbert@bloomberg.net




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