Economic Calendar

Monday, November 28, 2011

Secret Fed Loans Gave Banks Undisclosed $13B

By Bob Ivry, Bradley Keoun and Phil Kuntz - Nov 28, 2011 7:01 AM GMT+0700
Bloomberg Markets Magazine

The Federal Reserve and the big banks fought for more than two years to keep details of the largest bailout in U.S. history a secret. Now, the rest of the world can see what it was missing.

The Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy. And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed’s below-market rates, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue.

Saved by the bailout, bankers lobbied against government regulations, a job made easier by the Fed, which never disclosed the details of the rescue to lawmakers even as Congress doled out more money and debated new rules aimed at preventing the next collapse.

A fresh narrative of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 emerges from 29,000 pages of Fed documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and central bank records of more than 21,000 transactions. While Fed officials say that almost all of the loans were repaid and there have been no losses, details suggest taxpayers paid a price beyond dollars as the secret funding helped preserve a broken status quo and enabled the biggest banks to grow even bigger.

‘Change Their Votes’

“When you see the dollars the banks got, it’s hard to make the case these were successful institutions,” says Sherrod Brown, a Democratic Senator from Ohio who in 2010 introduced an unsuccessful bill to limit bank size. “This is an issue that can unite the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street. There are lawmakers in both parties who would change their votes now.”

The size of the bailout came to light after Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, won a court case against the Fed and a group of the biggest U.S. banks called Clearing House Association LLC to force lending details into the open.

The Fed, headed by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, argued that revealing borrower details would create a stigma -- investors and counterparties would shun firms that used the central bank as lender of last resort -- and that needy institutions would be reluctant to borrow in the next crisis. Clearing House Association fought Bloomberg’s lawsuit up to the U.S. Supreme Court, which declined to hear the banks’ appeal in March 2011.

$7.77 Trillion

The amount of money the central bank parceled out was surprising even to Gary H. Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 1985 to 2009, who says he “wasn’t aware of the magnitude.” It dwarfed the Treasury Department’s better-known $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Add up guarantees and lending limits, and the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March 2009 to rescuing the financial system, more than half the value of everything produced in the U.S. that year.

“TARP at least had some strings attached,” says Brad Miller, a North Carolina Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, referring to the program’s executive-pay ceiling. “With the Fed programs, there was nothing.”

Bankers didn’t disclose the extent of their borrowing. On Nov. 26, 2008, then-Bank of America (BAC) Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis wrote to shareholders that he headed “one of the strongest and most stable major banks in the world.” He didn’t say that his Charlotte, North Carolina-based firm owed the central bank $86 billion that day.

‘Motivate Others’

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon told shareholders in a March 26, 2010, letter that his bank used the Fed’s Term Auction Facility “at the request of the Federal Reserve to help motivate others to use the system.” He didn’t say that the New York-based bank’s total TAF borrowings were almost twice its cash holdings or that its peak borrowing of $48 billion on Feb. 26, 2009, came more than a year after the program’s creation.

Howard Opinsky, a spokesman for JPMorgan (JPM), declined to comment about Dimon’s statement or the company’s Fed borrowings. Jerry Dubrowski, a spokesman for Bank of America, also declined to comment.

The Fed has been lending money to banks through its so- called discount window since just after its founding in 1913. Starting in August 2007, when confidence in banks began to wane, it created a variety of ways to bolster the financial system with cash or easily traded securities. By the end of 2008, the central bank had established or expanded 11 lending facilities catering to banks, securities firms and corporations that couldn’t get short-term loans from their usual sources.

‘Core Function’

“Supporting financial-market stability in times of extreme market stress is a core function of central banks,” says William B. English, director of the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs. “Our lending programs served to prevent a collapse of the financial system and to keep credit flowing to American families and businesses.”

The Fed has said that all loans were backed by appropriate collateral. That the central bank didn’t lose money should “lead to praise of the Fed, that they took this extraordinary step and they got it right,” says Phillip Swagel, a former assistant Treasury secretary under Henry M. Paulson and now a professor of international economic policy at the University of Maryland.

The Fed initially released lending data in aggregate form only. Information on which banks borrowed, when, how much and at what interest rate was kept from public view.

The secrecy extended even to members of President George W. Bush’s administration who managed TARP. Top aides to Paulson weren’t privy to Fed lending details during the creation of the program that provided crisis funding to more than 700 banks, say two former senior Treasury officials who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak.

Big Six

The Treasury Department relied on the recommendations of the Fed to decide which banks were healthy enough to get TARP money and how much, the former officials say. The six biggest U.S. banks, which received $160 billion of TARP funds, borrowed as much as $460 billion from the Fed, measured by peak daily debt calculated by Bloomberg using data obtained from the central bank. Paulson didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The six -- JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Morgan Stanley -- accounted for 63 percent of the average daily debt to the Fed by all publicly traded U.S. banks, money managers and investment- services firms, the data show. By comparison, they had about half of the industry’s assets before the bailout, which lasted from August 2007 through April 2010. The daily debt figure excludes cash that banks passed along to money-market funds.

Bank Supervision

While the emergency response prevented financial collapse, the Fed shouldn’t have allowed conditions to get to that point, says Joshua Rosner, a banking analyst with Graham Fisher & Co. in New York who predicted problems from lax mortgage underwriting as far back as 2001. The Fed, the primary supervisor for large financial companies, should have been more vigilant as the housing bubble formed, and the scale of its lending shows the “supervision of the banks prior to the crisis was far worse than we had imagined,” Rosner says.

Bernanke in an April 2009 speech said that the Fed provided emergency loans only to “sound institutions,” even though its internal assessments described at least one of the biggest borrowers, Citigroup, as “marginal.”

On Jan. 14, 2009, six days before the company’s central bank loans peaked, the New York Fed gave CEO Vikram Pandit a report declaring Citigroup’s financial strength to be “superficial,” bolstered largely by its $45 billion of Treasury funds. The document was released in early 2011 by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, a panel empowered by Congress to probe the causes of the crisis.

‘Need Transparency’

Andrea Priest, a spokeswoman for the New York Fed, declined to comment, as did Jon Diat, a spokesman for Citigroup.

“I believe that the Fed should have independence in conducting highly technical monetary policy, but when they are putting taxpayer resources at risk, we need transparency and accountability,” says Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee.

Judd Gregg, a former New Hampshire senator who was a lead Republican negotiator on TARP, and Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who chaired the House Financial Services Committee, both say they were kept in the dark.

“We didn’t know the specifics,” says Gregg, who’s now an adviser to Goldman Sachs.

“We were aware emergency efforts were going on,” Frank says. “We didn’t know the specifics.”

Disclose Lending

Frank co-sponsored the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, billed as a fix for financial-industry excesses. Congress debated that legislation in 2010 without a full understanding of how deeply the banks had depended on the Fed for survival.

It would have been “totally appropriate” to disclose the lending data by mid-2009, says David Jones, a former economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York who has written four books about the central bank.

“The Fed is the second-most-important appointed body in the U.S., next to the Supreme Court, and we’re dealing with a democracy,” Jones says. “Our representatives in Congress deserve to have this kind of information so they can oversee the Fed.”

The Dodd-Frank law required the Fed to release details of some emergency-lending programs in December 2010. It also mandated disclosure of discount-window borrowers after a two- year lag.

Protecting TARP

TARP and the Fed lending programs went “hand in hand,” says Sherrill Shaffer, a banking professor at the University of Wyoming in Laramie and a former chief economist at the New York Fed. While the TARP money helped insulate the central bank from losses, the Fed’s willingness to supply seemingly unlimited financing to the banks assured they wouldn’t collapse, protecting the Treasury’s TARP investments, he says.

“Even though the Treasury was in the headlines, the Fed was really behind the scenes engineering it,” Shaffer says.

Congress, at the urging of Bernanke and Paulson, created TARP in October 2008 after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. made it difficult for financial institutions to get loans. Bank of America and New York-based Citigroup each received $45 billion from TARP. At the time, both were tapping the Fed. Citigroup hit its peak borrowing of $99.5 billion in January 2009, while Bank of America topped out in February 2009 at $91.4 billion.

No Clue

Lawmakers knew none of this.

They had no clue that one bank, New York-based Morgan Stanley (MS), took $107 billion in Fed loans in September 2008, enough to pay off one-tenth of the country’s delinquent mortgages. The firm’s peak borrowing occurred the same day Congress rejected the proposed TARP bill, triggering the biggest point drop ever in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (INDU) The bill later passed, and Morgan Stanley got $10 billion of TARP funds, though Paulson said only “healthy institutions” were eligible.

Mark Lake, a spokesman for Morgan Stanley, declined to comment, as did spokesmen for Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.

Had lawmakers known, it “could have changed the whole approach to reform legislation,” says Ted Kaufman, a former Democratic Senator from Delaware who, with Brown, introduced the bill to limit bank size.

Moral Hazard

Kaufman says some banks are so big that their failure could trigger a chain reaction in the financial system. The cost of borrowing for so-called too-big-to-fail banks is lower than that of smaller firms because lenders believe the government won’t let them go under. The perceived safety net creates what economists call moral hazard -- the belief that bankers will take greater risks because they’ll enjoy any profits while shifting losses to taxpayers.

If Congress had been aware of the extent of the Fed rescue, Kaufman says, he would have been able to line up more support for breaking up the biggest banks.

Byron L. Dorgan, a former Democratic senator from North Dakota, says the knowledge might have helped pass legislation to reinstate the Glass-Steagall Act, which for most of the last century separated customer deposits from the riskier practices of investment banking.

“Had people known about the hundreds of billions in loans to the biggest financial institutions, they would have demanded Congress take much more courageous actions to stop the practices that caused this near financial collapse,” says Dorgan, who retired in January.

Getting Bigger

Instead, the Fed and its secret financing helped America’s biggest financial firms get bigger and go on to pay employees as much as they did at the height of the housing bubble.

Total assets held by the six biggest U.S. banks increased 39 percent to $9.5 trillion on Sept. 30, 2011, from $6.8 trillion on the same day in 2006, according to Fed data.

For so few banks to hold so many assets is “un-American,” says Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “All of these gargantuan institutions are too big to regulate. I’m in favor of breaking them up and slimming them down.”

Employees at the six biggest banks made twice the average for all U.S. workers in 2010, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics hourly compensation cost data. The banks spent $146.3 billion on compensation in 2010, or an average of $126,342 per worker, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up almost 20 percent from five years earlier compared with less than 15 percent for the average worker. Average pay at the banks in 2010 was about the same as in 2007, before the bailouts.

‘Wanted to Pretend’

“The pay levels came back so fast at some of these firms that it appeared they really wanted to pretend they hadn’t been bailed out,” says Anil Kashyap, a former Fed economist who’s now a professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. “They shouldn’t be surprised that a lot of people find some of the stuff that happened totally outrageous.”

Bank of America took over Merrill Lynch & Co. at the urging of then-Treasury Secretary Paulson after buying the biggest U.S. home lender, Countrywide Financial Corp. When the Merrill Lynch purchase was announced on Sept. 15, 2008, Bank of America had $14.4 billion in emergency Fed loans and Merrill Lynch had $8.1 billion. By the end of the month, Bank of America’s loans had reached $25 billion and Merrill Lynch’s had exceeded $60 billion, helping both firms keep the deal on track.

Prevent Collapse

Wells Fargo bought Wachovia Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. bank by deposits before the 2008 acquisition. Because depositors were pulling their money from Wachovia, the Fed channeled $50 billion in secret loans to the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank through two emergency-financing programs to prevent collapse before Wells Fargo could complete the purchase.

“These programs proved to be very successful at providing financial markets the additional liquidity and confidence they needed at a time of unprecedented uncertainty,” says Ancel Martinez, a spokesman for Wells Fargo.

JPMorgan absorbed the country’s largest savings and loan, Seattle-based Washington Mutual Inc., and investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. The New York Fed, then headed by Timothy F. Geithner, who’s now Treasury secretary, helped JPMorgan complete the Bear Stearns deal by providing $29 billion of financing, which was disclosed at the time. The Fed also supplied Bear Stearns with $30 billion of secret loans to keep the company from failing before the acquisition closed, central bank data show. The loans were made through a program set up to provide emergency funding to brokerage firms.

‘Regulatory Discretion’

“Some might claim that the Fed was picking winners and losers, but what the Fed was doing was exercising its professional regulatory discretion,” says John Dearie, a former speechwriter at the New York Fed who’s now executive vice president for policy at the Financial Services Forum, a Washington-based group consisting of the CEOs of 20 of the world’s biggest financial firms. “The Fed clearly felt it had what it needed within the requirements of the law to continue to lend to Bear and Wachovia.”

The bill introduced by Brown and Kaufman in April 2010 would have mandated shrinking the six largest firms.

“When a few banks have advantages, the little guys get squeezed,” Brown says. “That, to me, is not what capitalism should be.”

Kaufman says he’s passionate about curbing too-big-to-fail banks because he fears another crisis.

‘Can We Survive?’

“The amount of pain that people, through no fault of their own, had to endure -- and the prospect of putting them through it again -- is appalling,” Kaufman says. “The public has no more appetite for bailouts. What would happen tomorrow if one of these big banks got in trouble? Can we survive that?”

Lobbying expenditures by the six banks that would have been affected by the legislation rose to $29.4 million in 2010 compared with $22.1 million in 2006, the last full year before credit markets seized up -- a gain of 33 percent, according to OpenSecrets.org, a research group that tracks money in U.S. politics. Lobbying by the American Bankers Association, a trade organization, increased at about the same rate, OpenSecrets.org reported.

Lobbyists argued the virtues of bigger banks. They’re more stable, better able to serve large companies and more competitive internationally, and breaking them up would cost jobs and cause “long-term damage to the U.S. economy,” according to a Nov. 13, 2009, letter to members of Congress from the FSF.

The group’s website cites Nobel Prize-winning economist Oliver E. Williamson, a professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, for demonstrating the greater efficiency of large companies.

‘Serious Burden’

In an interview, Williamson says that the organization took his research out of context and that efficiency is only one factor in deciding whether to preserve too-big-to-fail banks.

“The banks that were too big got even bigger, and the problems that we had to begin with are magnified in the process,” Williamson says. “The big banks have incentives to take risks they wouldn’t take if they didn’t have government support. It’s a serious burden on the rest of the economy.”

Dearie says his group didn’t mean to imply that Williamson endorsed big banks.

Top officials in President Barack Obama’s administration sided with the FSF in arguing against legislative curbs on the size of banks.

Geithner, Kaufman

On May 4, 2010, Geithner visited Kaufman in his Capitol Hill office. As president of the New York Fed in 2007 and 2008, Geithner helped design and run the central bank’s lending programs. The New York Fed supervised four of the six biggest U.S. banks and, during the credit crunch, put together a daily confidential report on Wall Street’s financial condition. Geithner was copied on these reports, based on a sampling of e- mails released by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.

At the meeting with Kaufman, Geithner argued that the issue of limiting bank size was too complex for Congress and that people who know the markets should handle these decisions, Kaufman says. According to Kaufman, Geithner said he preferred that bank supervisors from around the world, meeting in Basel, Switzerland, make rules increasing the amount of money banks need to hold in reserve. Passing laws in the U.S. would undercut his efforts in Basel, Geithner said, according to Kaufman.

Anthony Coley, a spokesman for Geithner, declined to comment.

‘Punishing Success’

Lobbyists for the big banks made the winning case that forcing them to break up was “punishing success,” Brown says. Now that they can see how much the banks were borrowing from the Fed, senators might think differently, he says.

The Fed supported curbing too-big-to-fail banks, including giving regulators the power to close large financial firms and implementing tougher supervision for big banks, says Fed General Counsel Scott G. Alvarez. The Fed didn’t take a position on whether large banks should be dismantled before they get into trouble.

Dodd-Frank does provide a mechanism for regulators to break up the biggest banks. It established the Financial Stability Oversight Council that could order teetering banks to shut down in an orderly way. The council is headed by Geithner.

“Dodd-Frank does not solve the problem of too big to fail,” says Shelby, the Alabama Republican. “Moral hazard and taxpayer exposure still very much exist.”

Below Market

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, says banks “were either in bad shape or taking advantage of the Fed giving them a good deal. The former contradicts their public statements. The latter -- getting loans at below-market rates during a financial crisis -- is quite a gift.”

The Fed says it typically makes emergency loans more expensive than those available in the marketplace to discourage banks from abusing the privilege. During the crisis, Fed loans were among the cheapest around, with funding available for as low as 0.01 percent in December 2008, according to data from the central bank and money-market rates tracked by Bloomberg.

The Fed funds also benefited firms by allowing them to avoid selling assets to pay investors and depositors who pulled their money. So the assets stayed on the banks’ books, earning interest.

Banks report the difference between what they earn on loans and investments and their borrowing expenses. The figure, known as net interest margin, provides a clue to how much profit the firms turned on their Fed loans, the costs of which were included in those expenses. To calculate how much banks stood to make, Bloomberg multiplied their tax-adjusted net interest margins by their average Fed debt during reporting periods in which they took emergency loans.

Added Income

The 190 firms for which data were available would have produced income of $13 billion, assuming all of the bailout funds were invested at the margins reported, the data show.

The six biggest U.S. banks’ share of the estimated subsidy was $4.8 billion, or 23 percent of their combined net income during the time they were borrowing from the Fed. Citigroup would have taken in the most, with $1.8 billion.

“The net interest margin is an effective way of getting at the benefits that these large banks received from the Fed,” says Gerald A. Hanweck, a former Fed economist who’s now a finance professor at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

While the method isn’t perfect, it’s impossible to state the banks’ exact profits or savings from their Fed loans because the numbers aren’t disclosed and there isn’t enough publicly available data to figure it out.

Opinsky, the JPMorgan spokesman, says he doesn’t think the calculation is fair because “in all likelihood, such funds were likely invested in very short-term investments,” which typically bring lower returns.

Standing Access

Even without tapping the Fed, the banks get a subsidy by having standing access to the central bank’s money, says Viral Acharya, a New York University economics professor who has worked as an academic adviser to the New York Fed.

“Banks don’t give lines of credit to corporations for free,” he says. “Why should all these government guarantees and liquidity facilities be for free?”

In the September 2008 meeting at which Paulson and Bernanke briefed lawmakers on the need for TARP, Bernanke said that if nothing was done, “unemployment would rise -- to 8 or 9 percent from the prevailing 6.1 percent,” Paulson wrote in “On the Brink” (Business Plus, 2010).

Occupy Wall Street

The U.S. jobless rate hasn’t dipped below 8.8 percent since March 2009, 3.6 million homes have been foreclosed since August 2007, according to data provider RealtyTrac Inc., and police have clashed with Occupy Wall Street protesters, who say government policies favor the wealthiest citizens, in New York, Boston, Seattle and Oakland, California.

The Tea Party, which supports a more limited role for government, has its roots in anger over the Wall Street bailouts, says Neil M. Barofsky, former TARP special inspector general and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor.

“The lack of transparency is not just frustrating; it really blocked accountability,” Barofsky says. “When people don’t know the details, they fill in the blanks. They believe in conspiracies.”

In the end, Geithner had his way. The Brown-Kaufman proposal to limit the size of banks was defeated, 60 to 31. Bank supervisors meeting in Switzerland did mandate minimum reserves that institutions will have to hold, with higher levels for the world’s largest banks, including the six biggest in the U.S. Those rules can be changed by individual countries.

They take full effect in 2019.

Meanwhile, Kaufman says, “we’re absolutely, totally, 100 percent not prepared for another financial crisis.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net; Bradley Keoun in New York at bkeoun@bloomberg.net; Phil Kuntz in New York at pkuntz1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Gary Putka at gputka@bloomberg.net; David Scheer at dscheer@bloomberg.net.




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U.S. Stock-Index Futures Gain After Report on IMF Loan to Italy

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft - Nov 28, 2011 8:15 AM GMT+0700

U.S. stock futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will end a seven-day losing streak, amid optimism European leaders will do more to contain the region’s sovereign debt crisis and after Thanksgiving retail sales climbed to a record.

S&P 500 futures expiring in December advanced 2.1 percent to 1,177.10 at 10:10 a.m. Tokyo time. The index has lost 7.9 percent since Nov. 15, including the worst Thanksgiving week decline since 1932.

U.S. retail sales increased 16 percent to $52.4 billion during the Thanksgiving weekend, according to the National Retail Federation, citing a survey conducted by BIGresearch. The average shopper spent $398.62, up from $365.34 a year earlier.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti is set to propose more austerity measures this week to balance the country’s budget by 2013, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. The IMF is preparing a 600 billion euro ($794 billion) loan for Italy in case the country’s debt crisis worsens, La Stampa reported, without saying where it got the information.

“It would be relief for money managers if we can just move Europe from a negative to a neutral impact on the market,” Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Fort Lee, New Jersey-based Palisade Capital Management LLC, which manages $3.4 billion, said in a telephone interview. “There’s an underpinning of growth in the U.S. and it’s picking up steam.”

More than $1.2 trillion has been erased from U.S. stocks since Nov. 15 as concern grew that Europe’s debt crisis will spread and American policy makers failed to reach agreement on reducing the federal budget.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net; Nick Gentle at ngentle2@bloomberg.net




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Holiday Weekend Sales Rise to Record $52.4B

By Lauren Coleman-Lochner - Nov 28, 2011 3:21 AM GMT+0700

U.S. retail sales during Thanksgiving weekend climbed 16 percent to a record as shoppers flocked to stores earlier and spent more, according to the National Retail Federation.

Sales totaled $52.4 billion, and the average shopper spent $398.62 during the holiday weekend, up from $365.34 a year earlier, the Washington-based trade group said in a statement today, citing a survey conducted by BIGresearch. More than a third of that -- an average of $150.53 -- was spent online.

“Consumers are clearly demonstrating their desire to spend this holiday season, but are far from throwing caution to the wind when it comes to how much they will spend on gifts,” Phil Rist, executive vice president at BIGresearch, said in a statement. “Retailers will have to stick to an aggressive holiday promotion schedule to keep consumers interested.”

The brisk turnout came as retailers from Gap Inc. (GPS) to Wal- Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to Toys “R” Us Inc. opened their doors earlier than ever. The expanded hours also spurred online sales, which gained 39 percent on Thanksgiving and 24 percent on Black Friday, according to International Business Machines Corp.’s Coremetrics. Black Friday is so named because many retailers are said to become profitable then.

Consumer Sentiment

The annual shopathon arrived with consumer sentiment at levels previously reached during recessions, as a record share of households said this is a bad time to spend, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. The measure has reached minus 50 or less in nine of the past 10 weeks, an unprecedented performance in its 26-year history.

That reflected concerns about 9 percent unemployment, a sluggish housing market and slower third-quarter economic growth than previously estimated.

Still, the number of people shopping during the Thanksgiving Day weekend rose to a record 226 million from 212 million last year, the NRF said.

“There seems to be a bit of an exhale happening” with U.S. consumers, Ellen Davis, NRF vice president, said on a conference call today. “They feel like it’s OK to spend a little bit more.”

People shopped in fewer destinations and they spent more money -- indicating they weren’t only buying merchandise advertised in circulars, she said. Department stores were a favorite destination, as they have been all year.

Macy’s Inc. (M) Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren said he was struck by how many people in their 20s descended on the chain’s flagship store in Manhattan on Black Friday.

Social Experience

“It was almost a continuation of whatever social experience they were having hours before,” he said.

More than half of shoppers bought clothing, the most popular category, followed by electronics, the NRF said.

The number of people shopping online and at stores on Thanksgiving Day jumped to 28.7 million from 22.2 million last year. About a quarter of shoppers visited stores by midnight of Black Friday, up from just 3.3 percent two years ago.

Holiday sales may rise 2.8 percent this year, or about half of last year’s 5.2 percent gain, according to the NRF.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lauren Coleman-Lochner in New York at llochner@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Robin Ajello at rajello@bloomberg.net




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Raw Materials Topping Equities With Economic Expansion Intact: Commodities

By Whitney McFerron and Elizabeth Campbell - Nov 28, 2011 9:16 AM GMT+0700

Commodities are beating equities for a fifth consecutive year, a sign that demand from developing economies is sustaining global growth that drove prices up almost fourfold in a decade.

While the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities dropped 15 percent this year and yields on Treasuries fell to near- record lows, the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities rose 0.7 percent. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects commodities to return about 15 percent in the next 12 months. The last time there was a recession, raw-material prices slumped 43 percent.

The S&P GSCI more than doubled from a four-year low in February 2009 as shortages emerged. China, the biggest user of everything from energy to copper to cotton, will lead gains in a projected 6.1 percent expansion in emerging economies next year, more than compensating for the anticipated 1.9 percent growth in the developed world, the International Monetary Fund says.

“The odds favor that the emerging world has succeeded in producing a soft landing rather than a crash landing,” said James Paulsen, the Minneapolis-based chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which manages about $340 billion. “A crash landing would make it more like 2008 for commodities, but a soft landing means we probably are in an ongoing recovery, which makes it very likely that commodities go onto new highs.”

Beating Commodities

Nine members of the S&P GSCI rose this year, led by gasoil, gold and feeder cattle, while the biggest losers were cotton, nickel and sugar. That compares with a drop in all 10 of the MSCI industry groups. Treasuries returned 9.24 percent, on track to beat commodities and stocks for the first time since 2008, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Hedge funds and other large speculators are holding a net- long position, or bets on higher prices, of almost 755,000 futures and options contracts across 18 raw materials, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. While that’s down from a record 1.56 million in September last year, it’s 11 times more than at the bottom of the slump in 2008. Commodity assets under management are within 9 percent of the record $451 billion reached in April, Barclays Capital estimates.

The U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, expanded at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the government said Nov. 22. The economy, more than twice the size of its nearest rival China, will gain 2.2 percent next year, compared with a 3.5 percent contraction in 2009, according to the median of 63 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The euro region will advance 0.5 percent in 2012, compared with a 4.2 percent drop in 2009, the estimates show.

Debt Crisis

Europe may fail to grow should lawmakers be unable to contain the region’s debt crisis, which has already toppled governments in Italy and Greece. The cost of insuring European sovereign debt against default rose to a record last week, according to the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit-default swaps. Germany failed to get bids for 35 percent of the 10-year bonds offered for sale on Nov. 23.

The region accounts for about 18 percent of global copper demand and almost 16 percent of aluminum consumption, according to Barclays Capital. Europe uses 15 percent of the world’s oil, the International Energy Agency estimates, and 19 percent of wheat supply, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.

$15 Trillion

A U.S. congressional supercommittee failed to agree on budget cuts this month, increasing investor concern that lawmakers will be incapable of containing the country’s $15 trillion debt. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, cut its recommendation on commodities to “underweight” on Nov. 22, citing policy failures in the U.S. and Europe.

Commodity investor inflows rebounded to $2.1 billion in October, after a record outflow of $10 billion in September, Barclays Capital said in a Nov. 21 report. Commodity assets under management totaled $412 billion at the end of the month, $39 billion below the record in April.

Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold increased to an all-time high of 2,351 metric tons Nov. 23, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Gold for immediate delivery rose 20 percent to $1,707.88 an ounce this year, more than twice the low of $682.41 reached in October 2008.

Global Stockpiles

There are no signs yet of a collapse in demand. China’s October copper imports were the most in 18 months, customs data show. Global stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai dropped 19 percent since March, to the lowest since December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Futures declined 25 percent to $7,230 a ton on the London Metal Exchange this year, still more than twice as much as the $2,817.25 reached in December 2008.

Inventories of crude and refined products in industrialized nations fell below the five-year average for a third consecutive month in October, the first time that’s happened since 2004, according to the Paris-based IEA. Stockpiles declined by 11.8 million barrels to 2.68 billion. Crude oil advanced 5.9 percent to $96.77 a barrel in New York this year, almost three times the low of $32.40 touched in December 2008.

“Inventory levels and spare capacity in commodities, certainly in the oil sector, are a lot lower than they were in 2008,” said Colin O’Shea, the London-based head of commodities at Hermes Investment Management Ltd., which has about $2 billion in raw-material holdings. “I don’t feel that the demand loss that we could potentially have now is the same as it was in 2008.”

Exceed Production

Barclays Capital expects demand for copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel and lead to rise next year. Combined stockpiles of coarse grains including corn and wheat will drop to the lowest since 2009, according to USDA data compiled by Bloomberg. Global oil demand will exceed production for a third year, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates.

“The emerging markets are going to be an underpinning for overall world demand, as they have become ever more dominant since 2008,” said Patricia Mohr, a vice president for economics and commodity market specialist at ScotiaBank Group in Toronto. “It’s been comparatively quite mild, and I think the reason for that is the emerging markets.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney McFerron in Chicago at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net; Elizabeth Campbell in Chicago at ecampbell14@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net





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IMF Says There Are No Talks Underway With Italy on Rescue Finance Program

By Toru Fujioka and Brendan Murray - Nov 28, 2011 1:46 PM GMT+0700

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Italian Banking Association is promoting “BTP-Day” today, a plea for local investors to purchase government bonds and bills known as BTPs and BOTs, to help restore confidence in the nation’s sovereign market. David Tweed reports on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)


The International Monetary Fund said it isn’t discussing a rescue package with Italy and Japan said no such talks have occurred within the Group of Seven, amid concern that Italy will struggle to bring down borrowing costs.

The Washington-based lender isn’t in discussions with Italian authorities on a program for IMF financing, a spokesperson for the fund said today in an e-mailed statement. Italy’s La Stampa newspaper reported that the IMF may be preparing a loan of as much as 600 billion euros ($798 billion) to support Italian efforts to restore investor confidence.

“The IMF simply does not have the resources” on its own for such aid, Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., chief currency strategist at the bank in New York, wrote in a note to clients. It’s also unclear whether the fund would be able to get agreement on leveraging its lending capacity to such a degree, he wrote.

Italy has seen yields on its benchmark 10-year government bonds soar above 7 percent this month as investor skepticism about the nation being able to sustain its debt load deepened. Aid of about 600 billion euros would “essentially” allow Prime Minister Mario Monti’s administration to stay out of the capital markets for 12 to 18 months as it implemented fiscal tightening and sought to win back bondholders’ confidence, Chandler said.

Italy Plans

Japan’s government isn’t sure whether Italy wants a 600 billion-euro IMF rescue, a Japanese government official said on condition of anonymity because of his ministry’s policy. The G-7 hasn’t discussed the issue, the official said.

The IMF, which extended one-third of the rescue packages for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, had about $390 billion available for lending as of Nov. 17, according to data posted on its website. The Italian daily reported that the IMF had several options to increase its firepower, including coordination with the European Central Bank.

Italy would pay an interest rate of 4 percent to 5 percent on the loan, La Stampa reported, without saying where it got the information.

“Schemes to leverage the IMF, which the proposal seems to assume, quickly run into political and technical difficulties,” Chandler said. “It is not clear who bears the cost of the risk. It is not clear that leveraging the IMF would be acceptable to a sufficient number of members.”

Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said today that markets have forgotten Italy’s strengths, including a strong industrial base. Euro-area bond markets “are not functioning normally,” he said at a forum in Tokyo.

To contact the reporter on this story: Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net





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Asia Stocks, U.S. Futures Rally on Italy

By Shiyin Chen - Nov 28, 2011 9:22 AM GMT+0700

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Graham Bibby, chief executive officer at Richmond Asset Management Ltd., talks about Europe's debt crisis, the outlook for global financial markets and his investment strategy. Bibby also discusses Federal Reserve monetary policy. He speaks in Hong Kong with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- John Vail, chief global strategist and head of asset allocation at Nikko Asset Management in Tokyo, talks about Europe's debt crisis and investment strategy. He speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)


Asian stocks (MXAP) advanced for the first time in four days, U.S. equity-index futures climbed and the euro strengthened against the dollar and yen amid speculation European policy makers are taking steps to stem the debt crisis and as America’s Thanksgiving retail sales jumped to a record.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 2.1 percent at 10:34 a.m. in Tokyo. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures jumped 2.2 percent, signaling the U.S. gauge may end a seven-day drop. Treasuries slid and the Dollar Index headed for the biggest drop in more than two weeks. The euro climbed 0.6 percent to $1.3318 and New Zealand’s dollar rose against all 16 major peers after Prime Minister John Key was re-elected. Oil rallied 1.7 percent in New York and copper jumped 3.1 percent in London.

About $4.7 trillion has been wiped out from global equity values this month as concern Europe’s crisis will spread spurred a surge in Italian borrowing costs. The International Monetary Fund is preparing a 600 billion euro ($799 billion) loan for Italy in case the debt burden worsens, La Stampa reported, without saying where it got the information. U.S. retail sales during Thanksgiving climbed 16 percent to a record.

“This is just one more bullet that’s added to the arsenal for solutions on the European crisis,” John Vail, chief global strategist and head of asset allocation at Nikko Asset Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Tokyo. There are “a lot of good things going on that’s not recognized by the market right now. It’s not all bad news,” he said.

Stocks Rebound

Almost 11 shares increased for every one that declined on MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index, which slumped 4.6 percent last week, the most since the five days ended Sept. 23. The gauge is valued at 12.3 times estimated profits, lower than the five-year average multiple of 16.4 times, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 2 percent, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 2.1 percent, and South Korea’s Kospi Index advanced 2.1 percent.

LG Electronics Inc. (066570) surged 8.2 percent and Li & Fung Ltd. rallied 6.2 percent, pacing gains among companies that export to the U.S. Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN) advanced 5.2 percent, the first gain in eight days, after Australia’s biggest carrier predicted profit that beat analysts’ expectations.

S&P 500 futures expiring in December signal the equity index may rebound from a seven-day, 7.9 percent slump that was its longest losing streak since August. Retail sales totaled $52.4 billion during the holiday weekend and the average shopper spent $398.62, up from $365.34 a year earlier, the Washington- based National Retail Federation said yesterday, citing a survey conducted by BIGresearch. Treasury 10-year yields increased five basis points to 2.01 percent.

Dollar, Euro

The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, dropped 0.6 percent, set for the largest slump since Nov. 11. The greenback slipped 0.2 percent to 77.61 yen and weakened 1.5 percent to 98.51 cents against its Australian counterpart.

The euro rebounded from a four-week slump against the dollar and strengthened 0.3 percent to 103.18 yen. The IMF loan would give Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti 12 to 18 months to implement his reforms without having to refinance the country’s existing debt, La Stampa reported. Monti could draw on the money if his planned austerity measures fail to stop speculation on Italian debt, La Stampa said.

Italy would pay an interest rate of 4 percent to 5 percent on the loan, according to the newspaper. The amount could vary from 400 billion euros to 600 billion euros, La Stampa said.

ECB Policies

“It does appear that these sort of noises would give the European Central Bank the cover it needs to implement a policy where it is essentially able to be a lender of last resort,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble urged fast-track treaty changes to tighten budget discipline to calm markets. Treaty change is necessary to give veto power over member-state budgets to the European Union Commission, he said in an interview with ARD television in Berlin yesterday.

The kiwi rallied 1.3 percent to 74.99 U.S. cents. Key’s National Party won 48 percent of the vote on Nov. 26, up from 45 percent three years ago, allowing him to form the next government with support from political allies in parliament. His administration will focus on advancing the sale of state assets and returning the budget to surplus by 2014 to 2015 or earlier, the 50-year-old leader said in Auckland after the election.

Bond Risk, Commodities

The cost of insuring Asia-Pacific corporate and sovereign bonds from non-payment declined, with the Markit iTraxx Asia index of 40 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan decreasing seven basis points to 231, Royal Bank of Scotland prices show. That will be its first decline since Nov. 18, and the biggest daily drop since Nov. 10, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc.

Crude for January delivery rose as much as 1.8 percent to $98.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Three-month copper rallied as much as 3.3 percent to $7,470 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Spot gold gained 1.4 percent to $1,707.55 an ounce, while corn and soybean futures gained more than 1 percent each.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net




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Sunday, November 27, 2011

Key Boosts Free-Market Drive as New Zealand Gives Mandate for Asset Sales

By Tracy Withers - Nov 27, 2011 6:01 PM GMT+0700

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key’s re-election with his party’s biggest mandate in 60 years will strengthen the nation’s push for free-market policies as he pursues welfare cuts and asset sales to balance the budget.

Key’s National Party won 48 percent of the vote on Nov. 26, up from 45 percent three years ago, allowing him to form the next government with support from political allies in parliament. His administration will focus on advancing the sale of state assets and returning the budget to surplus by 2014-15 or earlier, the 50-year-old leader said in Auckland after the election.

Securing a second term allows Key to expand policies aimed at reducing the economy’s reliance on government spending, an effort that was slowed in the past three years by the need to help the country recover from the global financial crisis and New Zealand’s deadliest earthquake in 80 years. The leader, whose popularity survived a credit-rating downgrade, will need to show progress in cutting the budget deficit as soaring borrowing costs imperil indebted European nations.

“The key issue for New Zealand is having expenditure restraint,” said Philip Borkin, an economist at Goldman Sachs New Zealand Ltd. in Auckland. “It is ensuring the economy has less handbrakes on it to continue to grow. If we can get the economy growing strongly then the accounts will naturally repair themselves.”

Key has secured support from two smaller parties to ensure a majority in parliament. He met with senior ministers yesterday and plans talks today with the ACT and United Future parties, which backed him in the last parliament and have pledged to do so again.

Currency Record

Confirmation of a Key-led government may underpin the New Zealand dollar and bonds, Annette Beacher, Singapore-based head of Asia-Pacific research at TD Securities, said in an e-mailed note. The New Zealand dollar was little changed on Nov. 25, maintaining a weekly decline, while the benchmark NZX 50 stock index dropped 0.9 percent. The currency peaked at a record high in August, above 88 cents against the U.S. dollar.

New Zealand has benefited from falling borrowing costs this year as investors fleeing Europe’s debt turmoil find a haven in the developed world’s second-best-performing bond market. Government yields fell by an average 174 basis points this year to 3.55 percent on Nov. 16, an all-time low, Bloomberg/EFFAS indexes show. New Zealand debt maturing in a year or more returned 13.7 percent this year, second only to the 15.5 percent gain in U.K. securities.

Borrowing Climbs

Rates dropped even as borrowings rose 28 percent to NZ$70.9 billion ($52.5 billion) as of October, partly to fund rebuilding after earthquakes devastated the South Island city of Christchurch. The government’s gross debt was 38.7 percent of gross domestic product last year compared with 25.3 percent in Australia, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

“National have been quite clear about trying to constrain the size of the government,” said Craig Ebert, a senior economist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. “Their policies kept more pressure off the deficit and debt numbers.”

Still, New Zealand lost its top AAA credit grades for local-currency debt at Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings in September, with both assessors citing concern that government and household debt was too high.

“We have vulnerability as a country, which is our high level of private debt and external debt,” said Darren Gibbs, chief New Zealand economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Auckland and a former central bank and Treasury official. The National government has to ensure “New Zealand at some point doesn’t become another victim of the international financial crisis,” he said.

Creating Jobs

As the European debt crisis threatens global growth, New Zealand’s new government faces the challenge of shoring up confidence in an economy where unemployment exceeds 6 percent and employment rose 0.2 percent from the previous three months in the last quarter.

Key, who came to power three years ago pledging state support to help end the nation’s worst recession in three decades, has promised to create 150,000 jobs over the next term. To boost employment in the country of more than 4 million, he pledged to introduce a “starting-out” wage for young workers and will limit increases in the minimum wage.

The multimillionaire and former foreign-exchange head at Merrill Lynch & Co. plans to overhaul welfare to help erase a record NZ$18.4 billion deficit. He said after the election he was confident of pursuing his asset-sale policy, which was opposed by 68 percent of 1,006 voters in a One News Colmar Brunton poll in late October.

State Assets

The sale of New Zealand’s state assets began in 1988 under a Labour Party-led government and progressed under National from 1990 to 1999, when companies such as Telecom Corp. and power company Contact Energy Ltd. (CEN) were created and sold.

Labour, which remains the main opposition even as its support fell to 27 percent from 34 percent in 2008, slowed the free-market policy push during its 1999-2008 rule. In campaigning for this month’s election, it had offered the alternative of a capital gains tax and income tax increases for the highest earners as the means to cut the budget deficit.

In contrast, National intends to raise at least NZ$5 billion by selling shares in electricity generators Meridian Energy Ltd., Mighty River Power Ltd. and Genesis Power Ltd., coal miner Solid Energy New Zealand Ltd. and Air New Zealand Ltd., which is now 75 percent state-owned. The government will retain at least a 51 percent stake and prioritize sales to local investors and pension funds, while limiting the size of individual holdings in the companies, the party has said.

Boosting Stocks

Key has pledged to use the money for capital projects including schools and irrigation. The so-called mixed ownership model will make the companies more efficient and will provide a boost to the stock market, he said before the election.

Part of Key’s challenge will be reviving business confidence, which fell to a seven-month low in October as the European crisis threatened to spill into a global slowdown. He also needs to bolster reconstruction after a February earthquake in the nation’s second-biggest city killed 181 people and wrecked more than 1,000 city buildings and about 6,500 homes. Rebuilding will cost at least NZ$20 billion over five years, according to government estimates.

Reconstruction delays have curbed earnings at companies such as Fletcher Building Ltd. (FBU) The nation’s biggest supplier of cement and lumber said last month profit in the six months ending Dec. 31 is likely to fall 10 percent from a year earlier because of weak residential and commercial construction.

Releasing Land

Key has said the government will help release land for new housing to accelerate construction that may require an estimated 30,000 more workers. That’s more than three times the 9,000 jobs the economy created since Key was elected in late-2008.

National will cap hiring by government departments and limit new spending to NZ$2.8 billion over its next three budgets, Key has said. He aims to cut welfare spending by NZ$1 billion over four years with a new program that will require two-thirds of current beneficiaries to train and be prepared to take work when it becomes available. Payment levels aren’t being reduced.

“It’s important that they continue to stick to the fiscal austerity script,” said Cameron Bagrie, chief economist at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Wellington. “People are very mindful of governments who don’t deliver on their austerity plans. Once you lose credibility the rug gets pulled out pretty quickly.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Tracy Withers in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Phang at sphang@bloomberg.net





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Arab Ministers to Discuss Syria Sanctions

By Abdel Latif Wahba - Nov 27, 2011 4:46 PM GMT+0700

Arab foreign ministers will meet today in Cairo to discuss possible sanctions against Syria after it failed to allow observers to verify its compliance with an accord to stop violence against protesters.

The ministers will consider measures including a travel ban on senior officials, a freeze on assets and the stoppage of flights to the country, the Arab League’s Deputy Secretary- General Ahmed Ben Heli said yesterday. The League rejected Syrian requests to negotiate the terms of the deal, which was agreed on Nov. 2. The original deadline was Nov. 19.

The regime of President Bashar Al-Assad is under increasing pressure to end an eight-month crackdown in line with pledges made to the League. Syrian security forces killed three protesters today and 29 yesterday, including five children, Al- Jazeera reported, citing activists.

“The Arab ministers will decide what can be implemented,” Ben Heli told reporters in the Egyptian capital, where the League is based.

Syria buried 25 soldiers, including six pilots, who were killed by the “armed terrorist groups,” the Syrian Arab News Agency reported today. Their deaths were “blatant proof of organized terrorism against Syria,” the news service said, citing Ghassan Abdelaal, the governor of Homs.

Syria Suspended

The United Nations estimates that at least 3,500 people have been killed since the start of the protests in mid-March.

The League suspended Syria, a founding member, for its handling of the unrest about two weeks ago. It was the boldest action by the organization since its condemnation of Muammar Qaddafi’s repression of protests in Libya paved the way for a UN resolution in March authorizing a North Atlantic Treaty Organization campaign in the North African nation.

In the first sign that Gulf companies may start re- evaluating their investments in Syria, Banque Saudi Fransi (BSFR), a Saudi lender part-owned by Credit Agricole SA, said yesterday it will sell its 27 percent stake in Bemo Saudi Fransi Syria and its 10 percent share capital in Bemo Lebanon.

“The financial risks in the Syrian Arab Republic do not permit Banque Saudi Fransi to continue as partner,” the Riyadh- based lender said in the statement on the Saudi bourse website. The bank “is no longer represented in the board of directors of Bemo Saudi Fransi Syria and Bemo Lebanon.”

Shrinking Economy

A planned auction for a mobile telephone license was abandoned this year after unrest spread and companies including Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Telecommunications Corp. and Turkey’s Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TCELL) pulled out. Syria had encouraged private industry and foreign investment in its state-dominated economy to provide long-term financing for development.

Syria’s $60 billion economy, which expanded 5.5 percent in 2010, may shrink 2 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. The government expects growth of 1 percent, Finance minister Mohammad Al-Jleilati said in September.

The U.S. and the European Union have already imposed sanctions on Syria targeting companies and senior officials. Russia and China on Oct. 4 blocked a Security Council resolution calling on Assad to halt the deadly crackdown. Iraq yesterday said it would oppose Arab sanctions on Syria, the al-Sumaria news service reported, citing Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari.

“It’s not possible to impose sanctions on Syria,” Zebari was quoted as saying by the Baghdad-based news service. “Iraq will declare reservation if economic sanctions are imposed.”

The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have urged their nationals to leave Syria. Qatar today advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Syria, the official Qatar News Agency reported.

To contact the reporter on this story: Abdel Latif Wahba in Cairo at alatifwahba@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at barden@bloomberg.net




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Abu Dhabi Shares Drop Amid Mideast Turmoil

By Zahra Hankir - Nov 27, 2011 5:46 PM GMT+0700

Abu Dhabi’s shares fell for a 10th day as political turmoil in Egypt and Syria intensified and on concern Europe’s debt crisis may spread. Oil declined for a second week.

National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC (NBAD), the United Arab Emirates second-biggest by assets, dropped 1 percent. Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC, the country’s second-largest Shariah-compliant bank, retreated to the lowest since May 31. Abu Dhabi’s ADX General Index (ADSMI) decreased to the lowest since March 2009, declined 0.1 percent to 2,416.04 at the 2 p.m. close in the emirate. Dubai’s DFM General Index (DFMGI) fell 0.4 percent. About 29 million shares traded, compared with a 12-month daily average of 63 million.

Global stocks fell last week, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index tumbling 4.6 percent, after the cost of insuring European sovereign bonds against default rose to a record and Germany failed to find buyers for 35 percent of the bonds offered at an auction. Emerging market stocks (MXEF) sank 6.1 percent on speculation that Japan may face a credit-rating cut and evidence that China’s factory output may have contracted.

“In addition to the euro-zone worries and an economic slowdown in China, developing regional political uncertainties are keeping sentiments fragile,” said Tariq Qaqish, deputy head of asset management at Dubai-based Al Mal Capital.

Defusing Unrest

In Egypt, the ruling military council is seeking to form an interim government to defuse unrest that erupted on Nov. 19. One person died in clashes with police yesterday, state media reported, bringing the official death toll in the past week to 39. Meanwhile, Arab foreign ministers will meet today to discuss possible sanctions against Syria after it missed a deadline to allow monitors to enter the country.

The Bloomberg GCC 200 Index (BGCC200), little changed at 2:08 p.m. in Dubai today, has dropped 12 percent so far this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 3 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 has tumbled 20 percent.

Crude for January delivery retreated 0.9 percent last week to $96.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Abu Dhabi holds about 7 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves.

National Bank of Abu Dhabi decreased to 10.05 dirhams, the lowest level since Oct. 25, and Abu Dhabi Islamic fell 1.6 percent to 3.13 dirhams.

Qatar’s QE Index (DSM) fell 0.1 percent and Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index gained 0.1 percent. Markets in Egypt, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait are closed for an Islamic holiday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Zahra Hankir in Dubai at zhankir@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Maedler at cmaedler@bloomberg.net





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IMF Readying 600 Billion-Euro Loan Offer for Italy, Stampa Says

By Tommaso Ebhardt - Nov 27, 2011 7:11 PM GMT+0700

The International Monetary Fund is preparing a 600-billion euro ($794 billion) loan for Italy in case the country’s debt crisis worsens, La Stampa said.

The money would give Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti 12 to 18 months to implement his reforms without having to refinance the country’s existing debt, the Italian daily reported, without saying where it got the information. Monti could draw on the money if his planned austerity measures fail to stop speculation on Italian debt, La Stampa said.

Italy would pay an interest rate of 4 percent to 5 percent on the loan, the newspaper said. The amount could vary from 400 billion euros to 600 billion euros, La Stampa said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tommaso Ebhardt in Milan at tebhardt@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net



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Texas to Ask Supreme Court for Stay of Maps

By Laurel Brubaker Calkins - Nov 27, 2011 1:00 PM GMT+0700

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott said he will file an emergency stay with the U.S. Supreme Court to block the use of election districts drawn by judges and contested by the state.

“At issue is whether the interim maps imposed by a three- judge redistricting panel violate the U.S. Constitution and federal law, and exceeds the proper role of the judiciary,” Abbott said yesterday in a statement.

Abbott said he would push for a quick ruling “so candidates will not needlessly file for office” based on “legally flawed” maps released last week by the federal court in San Antonio overseeing the state’s redistricting fight. Candidates may begin registering for Texas’s March 6 party primary elections tomorrow.

On Friday, the San Antonio judges refused Governor Rick Perry’s request to delay use of the interim maps the court created for state legislative races. Yesterday, the court adopted its previously announced interim districts for the U.S. House of Representatives, which the state also opposes.

Hispanic activists and the U.S. Justice Department claim voter boundaries created by the Republican-controlled Legislature were intentionally designed to prevent the election of Latinos.

Texas gained four new congressional seats after adding almost 4.3 million new residents since 2000. Hispanics comprised about 65 percent of that increase, according to the 2010 U.S. Census.

23 Seats

“Texas Attorney General Abbott is spending more time criticizing work done by unelected judges than he is concentrating on work done by elected representatives who created a map that’s not helpful to minorities,” said Trey Martinez Fischer, chairman of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus, which is fighting the state’s maps.

“Abbott is ignoring the fact that six judges in San Antonio and Washington believe there is a problem with this map the state of Texas is defending,” he said in a telephone interview.

Perry, who is seeking the Republican nomination for president, approved election maps drawn by the Texas Legislature in June. Critics said the maps created no new districts that improved election opportunities for Latinos, who historically have voted more often for Democrats than Republicans.

Republicans hold 23 of Texas’s 32 congressional seats.

Interim Maps

Separate three-judge panels have held hearings in Washington and San Antonio on related challenges to Texas’s electoral maps. Latino activists and congressmen whose jobs were threatened by the Legislature’s maps sued Perry in San Antonio federal court in August, seeking to block the maps.

Abbott sued the U.S. Justice Department in Washington federal court seeking pre-clearance of the election maps, a step required of all states with a history of voting rights violations. The Washington court on Nov. 8 refused to allow the Perry-approved maps to be used in next year’s elections, saying the court needed time to explore allegations that they were designed to keep Latinos out of office.

To avoid a delay in the state’s election cycle, the San Antonio judges created interim maps they said more fairly reflected the distribution of the state’s increased population. They proposed interim congressional boundaries on Nov. 23, a week after they submitted interim state legislative districts.

Ample Time

Texas Republicans claim the judges substituted their own policy preferences for those of the state’s elected representatives. Such action “ignores the voice of the citizenry,” Abbott said in objecting to the maps.

Republicans complained the judges’ maps favor the state’s Democratic minority too much and represent too radical a remedy, given that no court has yet determined the lawmakers’ maps are racially biased.

U.S. District Judge Jerry E. Smith, the dissenting member of the three-judge panel, said the court should delay implementing any of the new maps and keep candidates from filing until the high court has reviewed the panel’s work.

“Texas has some of the earliest primaries,” Smith said in his dissent from the order rejecting Perry’s bid to block use of the judges’ maps. “A delay of even a few weeks would still provide ample time for orderly primaries and runoffs well in advance of the November elections.”

The Texas case is Perez v. Perry, 5:11-cv-00360, U.S. District Court, Western District of Texas (San Antonio). The Washington case is Texas v. U.S., 1:11-cv-1303, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington).

To contact the reporter on this story: Laurel Brubaker Calkins in Houston at laurel@calkins.us.com.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Hytha at mhytha@bloomberg.net.


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Black Friday Sales Rise 6.6% to Record: ShopperTrak

By Matt Townsend and Cotten Timberlake - Nov 27, 2011 12:00 PM GMT+0700

Black Friday sales increased 6.6 percent to the largest amount ever as U.S. consumers shrugged off 9 percent unemployment and went shopping.

Consumers spent $11.4 billion, ShopperTrak said in a statement yesterday. Foot traffic rose 5.1 percent on Black Friday, according to the Chicago-based research firm.

“This is the largest year-over-year gain in ShopperTrak’s National Retail Sales Estimate for Black Friday since the 8.3 percent increase we saw between 2007 and 2006,” ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said in the statement. “Still, it’s just one day. It remains to be seen whether consumers will sustain this behavior through the holiday shopping season.”

The brisk turnout came as retailers from Gap Inc. (GPS) to Wal- Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to Toys “R” Us Inc. opened their doors earlier than ever. The move to turn Black Friday into more than just one day also spurred online sales, which gained 39 percent on Thanksgiving and 24 percent on Black Friday, according to International Business Machines Corp.’s Coremetrics.

Many shoppers were rookies who had never before participated in the busiest shopping day of the year, dubbed Black Friday because many retailers are said to become profitable then. As many as 152 million people were expected to shop at stores and websites on Black Friday, up 10 percent from last year, according to the National Retail Federation.

Macy’s Inc.’s (M) Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren said he was struck by how many people in their 20s descended on the chain’s flagship store in Manhattan.

“It was almost a continuation of whatever social experience they were having hours before,” he said.

Consumer Sentiment

Black Friday arrived with consumer sentiment at levels previously reached during recessions, as a record share of households said this is a bad time to spend, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. The measure has reached minus 50 or less in nine of the past 10 weeks, an unprecedented performance in its 26-year history.

Even with low confidence, shoppers paid more for goods and unleashed some pent-up demand, said Craig Johnson, president of consulting firm Customer Growth Partners, which is based in New Canaan, Connecticut.

Many shoppers are in the mood to buy for themselves. One is Kevin Fusting. While most of his gift budget will go to video games for his 10- and 12-year-old sons, Fusting, a 46-year-old oriental rug seller from Chevy Chase, Maryland, may buy himself a present this year: a Sony Corp. digital camera.

“I am not getting any younger,” he said, explaining the temptation.

Full Price

Stacey Carfi, a 32-year-old controller visiting Washington from Charleston, South Carolina, is treating herself, too. She paid full price for two pairs of pants -- one for herself -- and a key ring at Michael Kors and Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) She planned to buy herself shoes this holiday, too.

“It is the season for buying, so why not get in on that?” Carfi said.

Sales at brick-and-mortar stores may rise 2.8 percent to $465.6 billion this holiday season, slower than the 5.2 percent gain last year, according to the Washington-based NRF. Online revenue may advance 15 percent to $37.6 billion, according to ComScore Inc.

Not all shoppers planned to spend more this holiday season. Tanya Taylor, 39, bought clothes for herself at a San Diego Macy’s, and planned to spend 50 percent less this year because she’s getting less work as a freelancer in the beauty industry.

‘A Win’

Chains such as Macy’s, Target Corp. (TGT) and Kohl’s Corp. (KSS), which all opened at midnight, may have taken revenue from competitors like J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) that didn’t open until 4 a.m., according Ken Perkins, president of Swampscott, Massachusetts-based Retail Metrics.

“It was a win for them,” said Perkins, who visited stores in Boston. “The additional costs of staying open a few more hours will be more than offset by the traffic they brought in and probably taking some market share.”

Macy’s early start prompted many malls to open at midnight. That helped boost foot traffic at Walt Disney Co.’s namesake stores because Cincinnati-based Macy’s is the anchor tenant in the malls that house most of its locations, said Jim Fielding, president of Disney Stores Worldwide. Sales at Disney Stores met expectations by rising high-single percentage points, Fielding said.

Free Slippers

The extended hours drew Amanda Rottmueller, a 20-year-old nursing student, to Black Friday for the first time as she bought herself bras and pajamas that came with a free pair of slippers from Limited Brands Inc.’s Victoria’s Secret at the Tri-County Mall in Cincinnati.

“The deal is just too good, and I can get something really nice I wouldn’t be able to afford otherwise,” she said.

Black Friday may illustrate a gap between what consumers tell pollsters and how they actually behave -- a trend that has prevailed for much of this year, said Retail Metrics’ Perkins. Industrywide monthly same-store sales, a key indicator for retail growth because new and closed locations are excluded, have gained for more than two years and missed analysts’ projections once this year, according to Retail Metrics.

“A solid Black Friday suggests the rest of the season should be pretty good,” Perkins said. “Those who have jobs have been willing to spend.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Matt Townsend in New York at mtownsend9@bloomberg.net; Cotten Timberlake in Washington at ctimberlake@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Robin Ajello at rajello@bloomberg.net


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Europe’s Single Currency May Unravel Before Action, UBS Says

By Dan Hart - Nov 27, 2011 2:56 AM GMT+0700

Europe’s monetary union may unravel sooner than the region’s leaders can mobilize to ensure the sovereign-debt crisis doesn’t overwhelm the currency, a UBS AG (UBSN) foreign exchange strategist wrote.

“Financial markets continue to move faster than politicians,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, head of foreign exchange strategy for UBS, wrote in today’s note. Markets are starting to “price in the endgame” for the currency, he said.

European bonds slumped after Germany failed to draw bids for 35 percent of the offered amount at an auction of 10-year bunds this week, stoking concern the region’s debt crisis is infecting even the safest sovereign securities.

The dissolution of the currency would force Germany and other countries’ banks to take losses on their sovereign bond holdings and burden them with the need to raise even more capital, the Singapore-based analyst wrote.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s desire for closer fiscal union in Europe could weaken that country’s position if funds needed to be transferred to strengthen the monetary union, Mohi- uddin wrote.

He said next week’s meeting of European finance ministers and the auction of 8 billion euros worth of Italian bonds are expected to be a key measure of the euro’s strength.

The euro slid for a fourth week, dropping 2.1 percent to $1.3239 yesterday versus the dollar, the longest losing streak in 18 months. Also, the 17-nation currency fell for a third week against the yen as Belgium’s credit rating was downgraded. The currency fell 1.1 percent to 102.91 yen.

Dow Jones Newswires reported on the research note earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dan Hart in Washington at dahart@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Sylvia Wier at swier@bloomberg.net





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Pakistan Cuts NATO Supply Lines After Attack

By Haris Anwar and Anwar Shakir - Nov 27, 2011 6:29 AM GMT+0700

Pakistan cut supply lines to NATO troops in Afghanistan and ordered a U.S. withdrawal from a drone base after reports that helicopters of the U.S.-led NATO force in Afghanistan killed at least 24 Pakistani soldiers in an attack on a border post.

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani “strongly condemned” the attack and ordered the Foreign Ministry to address the incident “in the strongest terms” with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the U.S., his spokesman said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. The Cabinet’s defense committee held an emergency meeting and ordered the U.S. to withdraw from the Shamsi Airbase within 15 days.

Army Chief of Staff Ashfaq Kayani said the attack was a “blatant and unacceptable act,” and demanded urgent action against those responsible. NATO and the U.S. said the incident is being investigated.

The U.S. and Pakistani governments have been trying to stabilize their relationship after a year that included Pakistan’s detention of a CIA contract employee for killing two Pakistanis, the U.S. raid that that killed Osama bin Laden in May, and public accusations by top U.S. officials that Pakistan’s army is actively aiding militant groups that the U.S. defines as terrorist.

“This incident puts General Kayani in a very difficult position among his troops,” Talat Masood, a retired army lieutenant general and security analyst in Islamabad, said in an interview. “I don’t think both allies will go to the tipping point, but it makes things even worse at a time when the Obama administration was trying to restore a working relationship with Pakistan after the Osama bin Laden incident.”

Border Posts

In the Nov. 25 attack, NATO helicopters and a fighter aircraft fired at Pakistani border posts on the mountainous frontier between Afghanistan’s Kunar province and the Pakistani district of Mohmand, according to a statement posted on the Pakistani army’s website. The attack is at least the fourth on a Pakistan border facility by NATO forces in 15 months.

Pakistan’s defense committee, in a written statement from Islamabad, said the attacks “constituted breach of sovereignty, were violative of international law and had gravely dented the fundamental basis of Pakistan’s cooperation” with U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

‘Shared Interests’

“Senior U.S. civilian and military officials have been in touch with their Pakistani counterparts from Islamabad, Kabul and Washington to express our condolences, our desire to work together to determine what took place, and our commitment to the U.S.-Pakistan partnership, which advances our shared interests, including fighting terrorism in the region,” White House National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden said in an e-mail yesterday.

NATO oversees the International Security Assistance Force, or ISAF, in Afghanistan. The incident “has my highest personal attention and my commitment to thoroughly investigate it to determine the facts,” said the ISAF commander, Gen. John R. Allen, in an e-mail. “My most sincere and personal heartfelt condolences go out to the families and loved ones of any members of Pakistan Security Forces who may have been killed or injured.”

Cameron Munter, the U.S. ambassador to Pakistan, said “the United States will work closely with Pakistan to investigate this incident,” according to a statement from his embassy.

NATO Investigation

It’s “highly likely” that NATO aircraft conducted a raid, the British Broadcasting Corp. said, citing an interview with spokesman Brigadier-General Carsten Jacobson. NATO is investigating how the incident happened and has sent condolences for it, Jacobson told the BBC.

In September 2010, U.S. forces attacked areas in the border districts of Kurram and North Waziristan, killing what Pakistan said were several of members of its paramilitary Frontier Corps, an army-led force that guards much of the border. Pakistan closed its frontier for 10 days to the NATO-contracted trucks that haul food, uniforms, construction material and other “non- lethal” supplies from its port of Karachi into Afghanistan. Pakistan re-opened the border after a joint investigation with U.S. officials and a NATO apology for the attacks.

Afghan and Pakistani Taliban factions regularly attack U.S. and other NATO forces from their bases in Pakistan and try to slip back across the frontier for protection from NATO retaliation. ISAF has at times asserted a right of “hot pursuit” of Taliban guerrillas into Pakistani territory, while Pakistan has objected, calling such actions a violation of its sovereignty.

The Pakistan-Afghanistan border passes through rugged mountains and desert terrain and is unmarked over most of its more than 2,600-kilometer (1,600-mile) length. The two countries dispute the border’s location in many areas.

To contact the reporters on this story: Haris Anwar in Islamabad at hanwar2@bloomberg.net; Anwar Shakir in Karachi at ashakir1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Tighe at ptighe@bloomberg.net





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