Economic Calendar

Monday, April 2, 2012

Why Are the Fed and SEC Keeping Wall Street’s Secrets?

By William D. Cohan Apr 2, 2012 5:01 AM GMT+0700

Getting what should be public information about major Wall Street firms can be maddeningly difficult.

Bloomberg News discovered this in its ultimately successful effort to get information on the $1.2 trillion in “secret loans” the Fed doled out during the financial crisis. And I’ve had no small experience of it myself.

About William D Cohan

William D. Cohan is the author of the recently released "Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World" and the New York Times bestsellers "House of Cards" and "The Last Tycoons."

More about William D Cohan

As I started each of my three books -- about Lazard Freres, Bear Stearns and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) -- I submitted Freedom of Information Act requests to the appropriate government agencies (the Securities Exchange Commission, the State Department and the Federal Reserve) to obtain whatever documents, memos and e-mails they had about these companies and their senior executives.

I was hoping to find, among other nuggets, details of enforcement actions, or settlements that were reached where the firms “neither admitted nor denied” guilt, or other documentary evidence of the coziness that has for too long existed between Wall Street and Washington.


Sadly, getting this information in anything like a timely basis -- say, before my books were finished and published -- has been nearly impossible. At first, when I asked the SEC about documents related to Lazard’s role in the Hartford-Mediobanca scandal starting in 1968 and ending in 1981, the agency told me it could not release the information. When I reminded the FOIA administrator that the SEC had already released the information, years before, to another journalist, the agency dug up the 40 boxes of unindexed, unorganized documents and invited me to a warehouse in Pennsylvania to take a look. After an hour or so, the clerk asked me if I was done with my review. (Eventually, I persuaded the SEC to ship the boxes -- at my expense -- to its office in Manhattan, where I spent months poring over them.)

Zilch, Nada

But that bit of beginner’s luck turned out to be a fluke. To this day, the SEC has given me nothing -- zilch, nada -- about Bear Stearns or Goldman Sachs. After the Lazard book was published, the State Department sent me a thin file that was, supposedly, what it had in its possession about Felix Rohatyn’s three years as the U.S. ambassador to France. I opened the envelope and discovered that most of the 10 or so pages had been redacted.

Last December, nearly nine months after my Goldman book was published, I received an official-looking package from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Slapped on the outside of the envelope was a bright orange sticker about keeping the contents -- a computer disk -- away from “magnets and electric motors” and, of course, the warning “Do Not X- Ray.” This, I suspected, was my long-awaited document file about Goldman’s dealings with the Federal Reserve in the days leading up to Sept. 22, 2008, when it, along with Morgan Stanley, had the good fortune to be allowed to become a bank holding company with lifesaving unlimited access to short-term funding.

I was hoping to discover how that whole thing went down at the time, and how Goldman and Morgan Stanley got the Fed’s blessing but Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. did not. Also I was interested in Goldman’s interactions with the Fed since that fateful moment. My hopes were raised further when I heard from people at the firm that Goldman had reviewed the contents of what was being sent to me and that its executives seemed worried about it.

Nothing New

No such luck. On the disk was nothing more than a bunch of obscure -- but publicly available -- Federal Reserve documents about the details of Goldman’s assets and liabilities on a quarterly and annual basis, everything from the kinds of loans the firm had been making to the tenor of its derivatives book to whether the real-estate loans it owns were backed by commercial properties or residential properties.

The documents contained a bunch of detailed numbers (without explanation) about the kinds of risks Goldman was taking at a moment in time, thus prying open ever so slightly the firm’s black box.

For instance, who knew that at the end of December 2011 Goldman had $44.2 trillion in the notional amount of derivatives contracts on its books, about $1.3 trillion more than it did in 2010? Or that $36 trillion of that amount was for contracts of less than one year in tenor? Or that Goldman had $19 billion in insurance underwriting assets, up nearly 40 percent from the year before? Or that Goldman’s book of commercial and industrial loans was $7 billion at the end of 2011, up dramatically from the $829 million it held at the end of 2010? Or that the firm’s stash of mortgage-backed securities -- now $1.37 billion -- had nearly doubled what it had at the end of 2010?

Although I still have no idea how Goldman makes its money, I guess it is interesting to know that the government produces mind-numbing documents containing columns of numbers and then puts them on websites buried on the Internet.

But let’s not pretend that the Fed’s carefully scripted, and untimely, release of a disk of public information to me is even remotely the way FOIA is supposed to work. Where are the documents and e-mails about how Goldman was allowed by the Fed to become a bank holding company? Where are the documents from the SEC about Goldman? Where, for that matter, are the SEC documents related to the short-dated, out-of-the-money puts that investors spent millions of dollars buying in the last week of Bear Stearns’s existence? The SEC said it was investigating who bought and sold these puts, but it has never made the results of its investigation public despite my FOIA request.

If our government agencies continue to do everything in their considerable power to keep hidden information that belongs in the public realm, all the regulatory reform in the world won’t end the rot on Wall Street.

(William D. Cohan, a former investment banker and the author of “Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World,” is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Read more opinion online from Bloomberg View. Today’s highlights:

The View editors on why the U.S. should ratify the nuclear-test ban and regulate money-market funds. William D. Cohan on the government hiding public information on banks. Albert R. Hunt on murder in New Orleans. Charles Dumas on why the euro should be abandoned, and Charles Wyplosz on why the euro should be kept.

To contact the writer of this article: William D. Cohan at wdcohan@yahoo.com.

To contact the editor responsible for this article: Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net.



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Diageo Said to Hire Goldman, HSBC for Jose Cuervo Negotiations

By Jacqueline Simmons and Clementine Fletcher - Apr 2, 2012 5:01 AM GMT+0700

Diageo Plc (DGE), the world’s largest liquor maker, appointed Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) for advice on gaining control of Jose Cuervo from family owners, people familiar with the plans said.

Cuervo, owned by Mexico’s Beckmann family, is expected to be valued at more than $3 billion and family sellers may gain cash or shares in Diageo as part of the deal, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.

Diageo, the maker of Johnnie Walker Scotch and Smirnoff vodka, has an option to buy the company because of its international distribution rights to the Cuervo brand, a person with knowledge of the discussions said in May. Diageo’s agreement to distribute Cuervo in countries outside Mexico expires in 2013.

Discussions between Diageo and Beckmann family members may not lead to a deal because it’s unclear whether all of the family members are committed to a process, the people said.

A spokesman for Diageo declined to comment, as did spokesmen for Goldman and HSBC.

Diageo, based in London, is pushing into emerging markets and last year acquired Turkey’s Mey Icki to add the country’s largest maker of Raki liquor for about $2.1 billion.

Supply, notably around the agave plant used to make tequila, are among issues being discussed, one of the people said. A competitor, Brown-Forman Corp. (BF/A), in 2007 gained agave plants through the purchase of Mexico’s Grupo Industrial Herradura SA, maker of Herradura and El Jimador tequilas.

Agave

Brown-Forman in 2008 wrote down the value of dead agave plants, used to make tequila, due to weather, insects and disease, a spokesman said at the time.

Paul Walsh, Diageo’s chief executive officer, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on March 26 that he “wouldn’t take anything less than control, or a route to control,” when asked about Cuervo. Walsh has previously said Diageo wouldn’t distribute the brand under the same terms after the agreement lapses, and would seek a more lucrative agreement.

The value of Jose Cuervo works out to about $3.1 billion, Melissa Earlam, an analyst at UBS AG in London, wrote in a note published on March 27.

An all-stock deal would be mostly neutral to Diageo’s earnings per share in the second year, while a cash deal would be about 3 percent accretive to EPS, the report shows.

Cuervo is a global leader in tequila with 19 percent volume share, twice the size of Sauza, the No. 2 player owned by Fortune Brands Inc., according to the UBS report.

The Sunday Telegraph earlier reported Diageo hired Goldman to finalize talks with Jose Cuervo.

Cuervo is using Barclays Capital to explore options and negotiate a potential sale, people familiar with the matter said in May.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jacqueline Simmons in Paris at jackiem@bloomberg.net; Clementine Fletcher in London at cfletcher5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Heather Harris at hharris5@bloomberg.net





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Dollar Declines Versus Peers on Global Growth Optimism

By Kristine Aquino and Monami Yui - Apr 2, 2012 6:31 AM GMT+0700

The dollar fell versus 13 of its 16 major peers, extending a decline from last quarter, as signs growth is recovering globally damped demand for haven assets.

The U.S. currency dropped against the Australian and New Zealand dollars before a report today from the Institute for Supply Management forecast to show a gauge of U.S. manufacturing climbed in March. Japan’s Tankan survey may show confidence among large manufacturers improved. The euro strengthened versus the dollar and yen after European governments called for a bigger global financial emergency fund after engineering a firewall to fight the region’s debt crisis.

“The market is looking for better ISM and even a rebound in the Tankan and just globally better indications of economic growth ahead,” said Emma Lawson, a Sydney-based currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. (NAB) “Across the board, you’re seeing the U.S. dollar a little bit weaker.”

The dollar lost 0.2 percent to $1.3363 per euro as of 8:28 a.m. in Tokyo. It was little changed at 82.81 yen. The euro added 0.1 percent to 110.66 yen. The greenback slid 0.8 percent to $1.0433 per so-called Aussie and declined 0.5 percent to 82.24 cents per New Zealand dollar.

Manufacturing Gauges

The ISM’s factory index for the U.S. probably rose to 53 last month from 52.4 in February, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the figures are released today. A separate poll predicted the Tankan index for Japan’s largest manufacturers climbed to minus 1 in the three months ended March 31 from minus 4 in the previous period. The Bank of Japan (8301) will publish the data today.

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) climbed to a one-year high of 53.1 last month, the logistics federation and the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. The gauge has a pattern of rising each March.

Euro-area finance ministers decided on March 30 that 500 billion euros ($668 billion) in fresh money would go along with 300 billion euros already committed to create an 800 billion- euro defense against the debt crisis. The region’s leaders are set to encourage Group of 20 economies to bulk up the International Monetary Fund’s emergency fund at an April 19-20 meeting.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kristine Aquino in Singapore at kaquino1@bloomberg.net; Monami Yui in Tokyo at myui1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net





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Oil Rises a Second Day as Chinese Economic Data May Boost Demand

By Ben Sharples - Apr 2, 2012 5:48 AM GMT+0700

Oil advanced for a second day in New York as investors bet that fuel demand may increase on signs of a strengthening Chinese economy, the world’s second-biggest crude-consuming nation.

Futures rose as much as 0.5 percent after a Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to a one-year high of 53.1 in March, China’s logistics federation and the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. Payrolls in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude user, probably increased in March for a fourth consecutive month, economists said before a report this week. Oil capped a second quarterly gain on March 30 after President Barack Obama declared world supplies were sufficient to proceed with new sanctions against Iran.

Oil for May delivery gained as much as 54 cents to $103.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $103.46 at 8:35 a.m. Sydney time. Prices climbed 4.2 percent in the three months to March 30 for a second quarterly gain.

Brent oil for May settlement increased 51 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $123.39 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s premium to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate was at $19.92 from $19.86 on March 30.

U.S. employment rose by 205,000 after climbing by 227,000 in February, according to the median projection of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department report is due April 6.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net




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Euro Leaders Seek Global Help After Firewall Boosted

By Patrick Donahue - Apr 2, 2012 5:01 AM GMT+0700

Efforts to resolve the two-year-old European debt crisis swung back to world leaders after euro-area policy makers boosted a firewall designed to overcome doubts about their crisis response and to lure additional emergency aid.

Finance ministers from the 17-member monetary union unveiled a package over the weekend including 500 billion euros ($667 billion) in fresh bailout funds on top of 300 billion euros already committed to rescue programs, which together topped the symbolic $1 trillion mark. The total doubles when more than 1 trillion euros lent by the European Central Bank to aid the region’s banks is included.

“The political commitment to the eurozone is increasingly clear, and the ECB has shown that, in the final analysis, they’ll do what they have to do,” Erik Nielsen, chief global economist at UniCredit SpA (UCG), wrote in a note to clients yesterday.

Group of 20 nations that rebuffed German-led pleas for more aid in February will be asked to decide this month whether European leaders have done enough to warrant increased resources from the International Monetary Fund. Euro-area finance ministers insisted at a meeting that ended March 31 in Copenhagen that they’ve fulfilled their side of the bargain.

“Europe has done its part” and that augurs well for talks at the IMF spring meeting on April 20, French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said as he left the meeting in the Danish capital.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said March 30 that Europe’s upgraded strategy will “support the IMF’s efforts to increase its available resources for the benefit of all our members.” The same day, the U.S. Treasury said that Europe’s decision on financing will “strengthen confidence.”

‘Positive Efforts’

“Today’s announcement by the Eurogroup reinforces a trajectory of positive efforts to strengthen confidence in the euro area,” the Treasury said in a statement in Washington.

With finance ministers offering differing arithmetic to defend the firewall, it was unclear whether emerging nations including China and India would be persuaded to help bolster the IMF’s anti-crisis war chest at the fund’s meeting.

The weekend gathering capped a first quarter in which euro- area leaders agreed on a fiscal treaty outlining new budget rules, completed a second bailout program for Greece and bolstered their bailout funding. Along with the ECB’s three-year loans, the activity helped to ease borrowing costs in the monetary union and calm markets.

Even as euro officials pledged to exploit the time they’ve bought with the measures, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble criticized an excessive focus on the volume of bailout funding at the expense of structural overhauls like budget cuts and labor market changes.

‘Stupid Talk’

“My irritation over a lot of stupid talk over the last few days has to do with the fact that it’s as if only the firewall is important,” Schaeuble told reporters in Copenhagen March 30. “You could have put in 10 trillion, but if you don’t solve the problem, it’s worth nothing.”

The meeting featured a spat as to which European minister would present the package to the media. Austria’s Finance Minister Maria Fekter later apologized for speaking before a scheduled press conference.

The increased euro firewall derives from the ability of the 500 billion-euro European Stability Mechanism, the euro-area’s permanent rescue fund scheduled to go into operation from July, to use fresh funding. Had ministers not acted, that figure would have been reduced by funds already committed by the temporary European Financial Stability Facility.

Forced Compromise

The new fund’s firepower fell short of a draft proposal to top it up with some 240 billion euros in EFSF funds not yet committed. Instead, that amount will only be used to ensure that the permanent ESM can lend its full 500 billion euros before it becomes fully resourced in two years.

The compromise was forced by a group of German-led creditor countries that balked at potentially 940 billion euros in overall bailout funds, saying that such a sum couldn’t be justified to their countries’ lawmakers and taxpayers.

“Finland is ready to increase the capacity, but 940 billion is not possible for our side -- it’s too high,” Finnish Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen told reporters March 30.

It’s questionable whether the lesser amount will win over investors and G-20 leaders who have demanded bolder action from the euro area, according to Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London. He said the funding was still too meager potentially to rescue Italy and Spain, which have combined borrowing needs of 800 billion euros in the next three years -- or to deal with additional bank recapitalizations.

Rich Enough

Europe’s move “is likely to be a disappointment not only to some within the euro area, but also to those outside who wanted to see ‘the color of European money’ before being prepared to commit more resources to the IMF,” Barr said yesterday in an e-mailed note.

At a meeting in Mexico City in February, the G-20 said that a European review of its backstop funding is “essential” before any consideration of bulking up IMF resources. Officials at that meeting, including those from Japan, Brazil, Russia and the U.K., sided with the President Barack Obama’s administration, which has said that Europe is rich enough to do more.

Euro-region national central banks plan to steer 150 billion euros to the IMF as a down payment toward other countries chipping in. That sum was left out of Europe’s firewall calculation because it would be managed by the global powers that run the Washington-based IMF.

To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Donahue in Berlin at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net




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Japan Tankan Confidence Failing to Improve Undermines Rebound

By Keiko Ujikane and Masahiro Hidaka - Apr 2, 2012 6:56 AM GMT+0700

Sentiment among Japan’s largest manufacturers failed to improve in March, undermining signs of a rebound in the world’s third-largest economy.

The quarterly Tankan index was unchanged from minus 4 in December, the Bank of Japan said today in Tokyo. That was less than the median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News for a reading of minus 1. A negative number means pessimists outnumber optimists.

Stagnant sentiment indicates a weakening currency and gains in stock prices this year may not be enough to bolster corporate activity as exporters struggle to regain ground lost to overseas rivals when the yen surged to a postwar record in October. Sony Corp. (6758) more than doubled its annual loss forecast, while Panasonic Corp. (6752) and Sharp Corp. predicted record losses.

“It’ll probably take more time before the effects of weakening yen and rising stocks spill over into corporate sentiment,” Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo and a former BOJ official, said before the report. “There may be many companies that are still holding onto severe views on earnings that suffered a blow from the yen’s appreciation in late 2011.”

A government report last week showed that industrial production unexpectedly dropped in February. Policy makers are counting on reconstruction spending after last year’s earthquake and tsunami to help propel the rebound from a contraction in 2011.

Switch to Expansion

Gross domestic product may expand an annualized 1.7 percent last quarter after a 0.7 percent contraction in the final three months of last year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.

The Japanese currency hit a post-World War II high of 75.35 against the dollar in October, eroding profits of exporters earned abroad and jeopardizing their competitiveness. The yen has retreated from its high after the Bank of Japan expanded monetary stimulus on Feb. 14.

Sony, Japan’s largest electronics exporter, said in February that it predicted its loss in the year ended on March 31 would widen to 220 billion yen, more than double its previous estimate. Panasonic, Japan’s biggest appliance maker, also widened its annual net-loss forecast to a record 780 billion yen, it said in February. Sony earned 70 percent of its revenue outside Japan and Panasonic 48 percent.

Weakness in business confidence may increase the chance that the BOJ will consider expanding its asset-purchase program, Dai-Ichi Life Research’s Kumano said.

BOJ policy board members are scheduled to meet April 9-10 and April 27 this month. The central bank held off from expanding asset purchases at its meeting in March as it monitored improvements in the economy. It expanded bond purchases by 10 trillion yen and set a 1 percent inflation goal in February. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 0.1 percent in February.

To contact the reporters on this story: Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.net; Masahiro Hidaka in Tokyo at mhidaka@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net





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Romney Says Wisconsin Win Will Knock Santorum Out of Race

By Lisa Lerer - Apr 1, 2012 11:05 AM GMT+0700

Mitt Romney predicted victory in next week’s Wisconsin primary, projecting new confidence that such a win would clear the way for him to lock up the Republican presidential nomination.

“We’re looking like we’re going to win this thing on Tuesday,” he said in Fitchburg, Wisconsin yesterday, suggesting he could also come out ahead in two other contests in Maryland and the District of Columbia on April 3. “If I can get that boost also from Wisconsin, I think we’ll be on a path that’ll get me the nomination well before the convention.”

Mitt Romney greets volunteers at a phone bank for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in Fitchburg, Wisconsin on March 31, 2012. Photographer: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

A trio of victories would demonstrate Romney’s ability to win across the country, while also expanding his lead toward securing the 1,144 convention delegates needed to capture the party nomination.

Romney has 568 delegates, according to an Associated Press tally. Former U.S. Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has 273, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 135 and Representative Ron Paul of Texas with 50.

“If you do your job and I do mine, I might be able to pick up all three of those, and that would be obviously a big statement,” he told voters at a call center for Republican Governor Scott Walker, who is facing a recall election.

Romney wins could also mark the beginning of the end for Santorum, who’s struggled to maintain momentum amid endorsements for Romney and calls from numerous prominent party leaders to complete the primary process and begin preparation for the contest in November against President Barack Obama. Romney on March 29 was endorsed by former President George H.W. Bush.

Santorum’s Pitch

At a Republican party dinner in Wisconsin last night, Santorum raised questions about Romney’s general election competitiveness, saying he didn’t share their views on such issues as a health-care mandate. Romney, Santorum said, couldn’t make a strong case against the national health-care law championed by Obama because of his support for a similar state law as governor of Massachusetts.

“It’s important to stand behind principled conservatives,” he told voters in Pewaukee, Wisconsin. “It’s our best chance of winning.”

The Wisconsin primary is Santorum’s last opportunity to demonstrate his strength in the Midwest, a region where he has said he is better than Romney to compete against Obama. In Michigan and Ohio, Santorum held Romney to wins of 3 percentage points and 1 percentage point.

Romney Polling Ahead

In a NBC News/Marist poll released yesterday, Romney had an advantage over Santorum, 40 percent to 33 percent. Paul was third with 11 percent, and Gingrich was last at 8 percent, in the survey of likely Wisconsin primary voters conducted March 26-27 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

The next contests will be on April 24 in Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York and Delaware -- states expected to favor Romney -- and in Pennsylvania, which Santorum represented in the House and Senate.

Santorum is looking ahead to the April 24 primaries. He scheduled his election night party in Mars, Pennsylvania, near his hometown of Butler, rather than Tuesday in Wisconsin.

On the campaign trail yesterday, Romney ignored his primary rivals, keeping his message focused on the general election. He framed the election as a battle for economic freedom, blaming Obama for “the most tepid, weakest recovery” and labeled his economic strategy a “bust.”

“This is a time for freedom, for economic freedom,” he said in his remarks before the Faith and Freedom Coalition. “It is not a time for a government dominated society or economy.”

Revive America

At the party dinner in Pewaukee last night, Romney promised to revive America, accusing Obama with failing to recognize the country’s unique place in the world.

“It is always a great gift to remember that we have something no one else in the world has: We’re American,” he said. “I want to make sure we bring back that conviction to every man, woman and child around the world.”

Even as he pivoted to the November election, Romney highlighted positions that appeal to evangelical and born-again Christian voters who make up the primary base of the Republican Party.

“I will restore and protect religious freedom,” he said. “We are one nation under God and that must be maintained.”

Romney, 65, struck an upbeat tone as he toured the state, joking with voters and praising Wisconsin U.S. Representative Paul Ryan, who has endorsed Romney.

Joking Romney

In Fitchburg, Romney teased an aide about his gray plaid jacket, saying that it was made out of the fabric of an old couch once owned by Ryan. “People always wondered what happened to that sofa,” Romney told voters.

After losing primaries to Santorum in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana, Romney is casting Wisconsin as the state that can deliver a knock-out punch.

“I’m not counting the delegates before they hatch,” Romney said. “But I’m going to keep working very hard and hope I get a good strong send off from Wisconsin.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Lisa Lerer in Pewaukee, Wisconsin at llerer@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net




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Huawei to Seek Projects Related to Australia’s Broadband Network

By Soraya Permatasari - Apr 1, 2012 9:01 PM GMT+0700

Huawei Technologies Co., China’s largest maker of telephone equipment, said it will continue to seek projects related to Australia’s broadband network after being banned from bidding on contracts over security concerns.

“Our argument will always be that there is core parts of the national infrastructure that companies like us would not expect to be in,” John Lord, chairman of Huawei’s unit in Australia, told the Australian Broadcasting Corp.’s “Inside Business” program yesterday. “We would still argue that there’s parts of the NBN that are perhaps suitable.”

Huawei won’t be allowed to bid for work on the A$35.9 billion ($37 billion) project for Australia’s national broadband network, the government has said, marking at least the second time in six months that the Chinese company has been barred from an overseas government contract.

The Australian ban adds to political woes for Huawei, the world’s second-largest vendor of phone network equipment with $32 billion in sales last year. The company has repeatedly run into opposition from U.S. lawmakers, who have cited concerns about security because of alleged links to China’s military, which Huawei has denied.

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard last month defended her government’s decision to ban Huawei, saying it was because of “national interests.”

Australian Network

The Australian network will provide fiber-optic access to about 3.5 million premises in Australia by mid-2015, Gillard said on March 29. The NBN plans to roll out fiber to 93 percent of Australia’s population during the next decade, with the rest served by wireless and satellite.

In October, the U.S. excluded Huawei from its Public Safety 700-MHz Demonstration Network, run by the National Institute of Standards and Technology along with the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, a part of the Commerce Department. The network allows communication in an emergency between first responders, including firefighters and police officers.

Lord reiterated Huawei has offered to limit all employees on the broadband project to security-cleared Australian citizens, open up its software code, and undergo a full audit of security measures.

Huawei has said it’s working on eight broadband networks similar to Australia’s in the U.K., Singapore, Malaysia, New Zealand, the United Arab Emirates, Cameroon, Benin and Brunei, and hasn’t been asked for security concessions in those markets.

To contact the reporter on this story: Soraya Permatasari in Melbourne at soraya@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Tighe at ptighe@bloomberg.net



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Suu Kyi Stands in Myanmar Election With Sanctions in Bala

By Daniel Ten Kate - Apr 1, 2012 2:39 PM GMT+0700

Myanmar dissident Aung San Suu Kyi faced voters for the first time today in by-elections the U.S. and European nations are watching closely as they consider lifting sanctions against the former dictatorship.

Suu Kyi, who won the Nobel peace prize during her 15 years under house arrest, is among those standing for 43 of 664 parliamentary seats left vacant by lawmakers who joined President Thein Sein’s government. She said two days ago her National League for Democracy party would tolerate irregularities in the first vote it’s contesting since 1990.

Aung San Suu Kyi is surrounded by the media as she visits a polling station in Kaw Hmu, Myanmar on April 1, 2012. Photographer: Paula Bronstein/Getty Images

“It’s more than words, I’m very, very happy,” May Nwe Soe, a 33-year-old garment factor worker, said of voting in Suu Kyi’s district today. “I just want Daw Suu to go to parliament,” she said, using a respectful title for Suu Kyi.

Moves toward greater political freedom in the nation of 64 million people bordering China and India have prompted Western nations to consider easing sanctions as companies from General Electric Co. to Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) await opportunities to invest. At stake for Thein Sein is dismantling a legacy of six decades of isolation that left Myanmar with per capita gross domestic product of just 14 percent of neighbor Thailand’s.

Suu Kyi, 66, spent last night in a village of 1,400 people in Kawhmu district about an hour’s drive south of Yangon, the country’s biggest city. Hundreds of residents yesterday lined a dirt road heading to the village to get a glimpse of the daughter of a Myanmar independence hero.

‘Democracy is Exciting’

“Don’t forget to vote tomorrow,” she told a crowd of several thousand people who chanted her name and “NLD - We Must Win” as she stood on a balcony at the house where she was staying. “Don’t miss this chance. If the people vote for me, I will come here often and I will try to develop the region.”

Voters started casting ballots when polls opened at 6 a.m. local time. In 2010, results were announced several days after the election.

“The voters are coming peacefully,” Myint Oo, the chairman of a ward in Suu Kyi’s district, said today. “Democracy is exciting because you can vote.”

Known in Myanmar simply as “The Lady,” Suu Kyi emerged on Myanmar’s political scene in 1988, when she returned to the country to care for her ailing mother after years of living overseas. She was first detained before 1990 elections in which her party won about 80 percent of seats for a committee that was designed to draft a new constitution. The military rejected the results.

Fairness Questioned

Suu Kyi refused to accept an army-drafted constitution in 2008 and boycotted an election two years later in which Thein Sein’s party won a majority. A meeting between Suu Kyi and the president in August led to her party rejoining the political system.

In a 90-minute briefing on March 30, Suu Kyi said her party will accept the results if the will of the people is “fairly reflected.” She called irregularities including vote-buying, incorrect voter lists and an incident where a candidate was almost hit with a betel nut “beyond what is acceptable for democratic selection.”

“I don’t think we can consider it a genuinely free and fair election if we take into consideration what has been going on in the last couple of months,” Suu Kyi told more than 300 journalists gathered at her lakeside home in Yangon. “But still I will be willing to work toward national reconciliation, so we will try to tolerate what has happened.”

Suu Kyi has appeared on state-run television and traveled throughout the country during the campaign period, falling ill on two occasions from exhaustion. Tens of thousands of people have greeted her at campaign stops around the country.

Military, Police Unseen

“We’re happy with what we’ve seen,” Chheang Vun, who is observing the election for Cambodia, said in Kawhmu district. “Myanmar is now very different. In the three days we’ve been here, we have not seen military or police.”

Thein Sein called on all political parties to accept the results in a March 24 speech published in the state-run New Light of Myanmar.

“We all need to work together to ensure that the outcome is accepted by all the people,” he said.

The elections “aren’t going to fundamentally shift power in the country, but they are hugely important in representing a historic compromise” between Suu Kyi’s party and the government, said Thant Myint-U, an author of two books on Myanmar whose grandfather, U Thant, was the first Asian head of the United Nations. “It will end a long chapter in Burmese history.”

Currency Float

Myanmar’s political opening is moving in parallel with efforts to rewrite investment laws and unify multiple exchange rates that impede trade. The country will adopt a managed float of its currency today, scrapping a 35-year fixed rate in a move to modernize the economy, the central bank said in a March 28 statement.

Rich in natural gas, gold and gemstones, Myanmar represents one of Asia’s last untapped frontier markets, attracting investors such as Jim Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings, who predicted a global commodities rally in 1999. Myanmar’s opening is “a game-changer,” Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch said in a March 29 research note.

Honda Motor Co. is interested in building a motorcycle plant in Myanmar, Hiroshi Kobayashi, president and chief executive officer of Asian Honda Motor Co., told reporters in Thailand yesterday. The decision will depend on circumstances in the country and international consensus, he said.

U.S., EU Watching

American sanctions ban investment in Myanmar and imports from the country, restrict money transfers, freeze assets and target jewelry with gemstones originating in the nation. The European Union bans weapons sales and mineral imports.

The by-elections “are a tangible moment in the path to reform, just like the release of political prisoners in January,” Derek Mitchell, U.S. special envoy to Myanmar, told reporters on March 15. “We will respond after the elections in an appropriate fashion if we believe they were held free, fair and transparent.”

Myanmar invited a limited number of election monitors and journalists from the U.S., EU and neighboring countries. Voters will pick from 17 parties and seven independent candidates to fill 37 seats in the lower house, six in the upper house and two for regional assemblies, according to Network Myanmar, a U.K.- based organization that promotes reconciliation in the country.

The by-elections “are a key moment in national reconciliation and should allow a substantial review of EU policy vis-à-vis Myanmar,” Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said in a March 28 statement.

Security Concerns

Elections in three constituencies in Kachin state, home to a violent ethnic rebellion, were suspended due to security concerns. Myanmar’s army has displaced 75,000 ethnic Kachins since last June in an area along the Chinese border, New York- based Human Rights Watch said in a March 20 report, underscoring the challenges that remain for Thein Sein as he aims to make peace with political rivals.

“Myanmar will become a new model for other countries to get through a transition with stability and irreversibility,” Nay Zin Latt, one of nine advisers to Thein Sein, said by e- mail. “The 2012 by-elections are much more free.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at dtenkate@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net




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China Manufacturing Gain Masks Exporters’ Woes as Loosening Seen

By Bloomberg News - Apr 1, 2012 11:00 PM GMT+0700

A stronger reading for a Chinese manufacturing gauge failed to end predictions for policy loosening as analysts described the gain as seasonal and a separate survey showed exporters struggling.

A Purchasing ManagersIndex (CPMINDX) rose to a one-year high of 53.1 in March, China’s logistics federation and the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. The gauge has a pattern of rising each March. In contrast, a PMI from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed manufacturing contracting and export orders falling.

Workers assemble keyboards at the Logitech International SA factory in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg

Premier Wen Jiabao has pledged to “fine-tune” economic policies as needed as weakness in export demand and a cooling housing market restrain an economy that probably grew at the slowest pace in almost three years in the first quarter. Analysts in a Bloomberg News survey last week unanimously said that banks’ reserve requirements will fall this year, while nine of 20 predicted lower benchmark borrowing costs.

“Policy easing is still needed to avoid a hard landing,” said Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong-based economist for Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., who previously worked for the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank. Fiscal spending will be “the driving force” and more cuts in bank reserve requirements are needed, he said.

The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped about 9 percent from this year’s high on Feb. 27 on concern that the world’s second-biggest economy is faltering, while the yuan was little changed in the first quarter at 6.2980 per dollar.

‘Purely Seasonal’

Bank of America Corp. economist Lu Ting yesterday predicted two cuts by year-end in the proportion of deposits that lenders are required to set aside as reserves, a ratio now at 20.5 percent for the biggest lenders, such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. The government may step up the construction of low-cost housing and the central bank could encourage lenders to reduce rates for loans, including mortgages, he said.

“The rebound in the government PMI is purely seasonal,” said Joy Yang, chief China economist at Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd., who previously worked at the IMF. “Flexible and paced easing” is needed, she said.

The government-backed PMI is skewed toward large enterprises and affected by seasonality, with the gauge climbing an average of 3.2 points each March from 2005 to 2011 as production returned to normal after a Lunar New Year holiday, HSBC said in a note. The latest number was higher than analysts’ median estimate of 50.8.

Export Weakness

The HSBC and Markit data indicated that export orders fell for a second month. At UBS AG, Hong Kong-based economist Wang Tao said that logistics federation data also showed a decline if seasonally adjusted.

“As inflation pressures continue to ease, weaker export growth is likely to prompt further easing measures,” said Qu Hongbin, a Hong Kong-based economist for HSBC. “Once the easing measures filter through, growth is likely to start bottoming out in the second quarter and rebound modestly in the second half.”

HSBC forecasts reserve-ratio cuts of at least 1 percentage point in the first half as well as additional tax breaks and fiscal spending, Qu said.

In a statement released March 31, the central bank reaffirmed a “prudent” monetary stance and said that economic growth is stable and Europe’s debt crisis is easing. Wen pared this year’s expansion target to 7.5 percent from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005, he announced March 5 at the legislature’s annual conference.

Trade Shortfall

China had its largest trade deficit since at least 1989 in February as Europe’s sovereign-debt turmoil damped exports and imports rebounded after the weeklong holiday. Exports fell for the first time in two years in January.

Mixed signs for the economy last week ranged from ICBC reporting higher-than-estimated net income for the fourth quarter, widening the bank's lead as the world’s most profitable lender, to a slide in industrial companies’ profits.

Morgan Stanley joined Nomura Holdings Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) in raising its forecast for China’s economic growth this year even as Societe Generale SA told clients to expect a slump in corporate profits. The world’s second-biggest economy will expand 9 percent, higher than a previous estimate of 8.4 percent, said Helen Qiao, a Morgan Stanley economist.

Such projections, still below last year’s 9.2 percent rate, offer little comfort for Australian mining company BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), seeing slower steel production in China, or German automaker Daimler AG (DAI), whose Mercedes dealers in the nation are giving record discounts.

Steel, Iron Ore

Curbs on property sales and plans to tilt the economy toward consumption and away from a dependence on capital spending have reduced production of steel and cement and helped push down iron-ore prices. Prices of new apartments fell in 45 of 70 major cities in February from January, according to government data.

Gross domestic product probably expanded 8.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, down from 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

The logistics federation’s PMI “indicates that economic growth is in an apparent rebound state,” Zhang Liqun, a senior researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in a statement. At the same time, the expansion may still slow based on market demand, Zhang said.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Zheng Lifei in Beijing at lzheng32@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net





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Sunday, April 1, 2012

Obama Enlists Donations Stressing 2012 More Important Than 2008

By Kate Andersen Brower - Mar 31, 2012 11:01 AM GMT+0700

President Barack Obama, seeking to raise $2 million in campaign funds in Vermont and Maine, told supporters that there may be more at stake in the U.S. election this year than in his victorious run to the White House in 2008.

“In 2008 I was running against a candidate who believed in climate change, believed in immigration, believed in the notion of reducing deficits in a balanced way,” the president said to about 100 contributors at a luncheon in Burlington, Vermont, the first of four events yesterday in two states he won by wide margins in 2008.

“We had some profound disagreements, but the Republican candidate for president understood that some of these challenges required compromise,” Obama said, referring to Senator John McCain. Now, he said, Republicans have a “fundamentally different vision of America.”

Obama has been increasing his fundraising and campaign appearances as he turns more directly to his re-election campaign and as the Republican nomination race enters its final stages. Obama is running with the nation’s unemployment rate stuck at about 8 percent or higher since he took office and the threat of higher oil prices stifling the recovery.

Obama raised $45 million for his campaign in February compared with $11.5 million for Republican front-runner Mitt Romney.

Agenda for Term

In seeking to rev up enthusiasm among his supporters, Obama cited victories during his first term, including passage of the health-care law that was the focus of Supreme Court arguments this week. The remarks on the health-care overhaul marked the president’s first on the issue this week.

Obama also outlined his future agenda, citing a push for a minimum tax on individuals who make $1 million or more annually, an initiative named for billionaire investor Warren Buffett.

The Senate is due to vote on the Buffett rule in two weeks. It would require a minimum 30 percent tax rate for the highest U.S. earners. The congressional Joint Committee on Taxation projects it would raise $47 billion over the next decade. Republicans, who have enough votes to block the legislation, have said they oppose it.

Obama linked the tax to his re-election campaign theme that the U.S. must cut its budget deficit without jeopardizing education and research programs.

‘Basic Math’

“If you make more than a million dollars a year, I don’t mean that you have a million dollars; I mean every year they’re making more than a million dollars, you should not pay a tax rate that’s lower than your secretary,” he told approximately 1,800 people at Southern Maine Community College. “This is not class warfare, this is not class envy, this is just basic math.”

Obama also jabbed at the Republicans running for president while at the University of Vermont in Burlington. He cited the debate in the primary battle among Romney, former Senator Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and said Abraham Lincoln “couldn’t win the nomination.”

Obama was making his first trip to Vermont since taking office. He won the state by 37 percentage points in the 2008 election. Yesterday marked his third visit to Maine, which he won by 18 percentage points in 2008.

Vermont residents have made more per-capita contributions to Obama’s re-election campaign than residents in any other state, even his home state of Illinois, according to a review by the Burlington Free Press.

State Visits

The president’s stop in Vermont reduces to seven the number of U.S. states that Obama has yet to visit since taking office: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Idaho, Utah, Arkansas and South Carolina. None of these states voted for Obama in his 2008 presidential race against McCain.

Obama has made two trips to Maine since taking office, including a July 2010 family vacation to Acadia National Park.

Tickets for the first event started at $7,500 per person and went for as much as $35,800, according to the campaign. In Portland, Obama spoke to approximately 1,800 people at Southern Maine Community College. Tickets for those events went for $44 to $100.

At a dinner at the Portland Museum of Art, Obama told about 130 supporters seated around square tables adjacent to an Edgar Degas exhibition that, while the economy is improving, more must be done to invest in research, education and energy independence.

“The task before us still looms large and the other side doesn’t have answers to these questions,” he said at the final fundraiser of the day. “You don’t see them debating how we improve our education system; you don’t see them engaging, in any serious way, about how we’re going to retrain our workers. There’s not a conversation about how we restore manufacturing in this country.”

Obama said Republican presidential candidates have “one message,” which is cutting taxes “so that by every objective measure our deficit is worse.” Ticket prices started at $5,000 per person.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kate Andersen Brower in Portland, Maine at kandersen7@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steven Komarow at skomarow1@bloomberg.net




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Switzerland Wants German Investigators Arrested on Espionage

By Richard Weiss and Leigh Baldwin - Mar 31, 2012 8:13 PM GMT+0700

Switzerland is seeking to arrest three German tax investigators who negotiated the purchase of data on Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) clients for economic espionage, a German government spokeswoman said.

The tax investigators from the state of North Rhine- Westphalia negotiated the 2.5 million-euro ($3.3 million) purchase of personal information of clients of Credit Suisse who may have evaded taxes in Germany in 2010. Ingrid Herden, the spokeswoman for the state’s finance ministry, said she couldn’t confirm more details.

The two countries have been trying to agree on a proposal for a withholding tax that would legalize undeclared assets by Germans held in Switzerland by imposing a retroactive income tax. German political parties have been fighting over the proposed tax rate.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the warrant won’t affect efforts by the two countries to reach such an accord.

“Switzerland has its legal system and we have our legal system,” Schaeuble told reporters today in Copenhagen after meeting with European finance counterparts. “The justice system in Switzerland is just as independent as it is in Germany.”

Switzerland’s public prosecution service confirmed it asked for administrative assistance from Germany in an investigation into the theft of tax data from Credit Suisse.

There is “concrete suspicion” that people inside Germany gave instructions to “spy on Credit Suisse” to gather the data, Jeannette Balmer, a Swiss prosecution spokeswoman, said in an e-mail today, without giving further detail.

To contact the reporters on this story: Richard Weiss in Frankfurt at rweiss5@bloomberg.net; Leigh Baldwin in Zurich at lbaldwin3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Benedikt Kammel at bkammel@bloomberg.net





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Facebook Valued at $102.8 Billion in Final Auction on SharesPost

By Brian Womack - Mar 31, 2012 11:01 AM GMT+0700

Facebook Inc. (FB)’s implied valued rose 8.9 percent to $102.8 billion yesterday in what was expected to be the last auction of its stock on SharesPost Inc.’s exchange before the social-networking company’s initial public offering.

SharesPost completed the auction at a price of $44.10 for 150,000 units, the firm said in an e-mailed statement. That’s up from an auction earlier this month with a price of $40.50 a share, valuing the company at $94.4 billion, based on a share count of 2.33 billion.

Facebook (FB), the world’s most popular social-networking service, filed for an IPO last month that could value the business at between $75 billion and $100 billion, people familiar with the matter have said. The Menlo Park, California- based company, which has more than 845 million users, is seeking $5 billion in what would be the largest Internet IPO on record.

The company decided to halt the trading of its shares on secondary markets at the end of this week as it prepares for the IPO, two people with knowledge of the matter said. Facebook aims to hold the offering in early May, one person said. SharesPost moved up the date of the Facebook auction to yesterday from April 2 to meet the deadline.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission settled with SharesPost to resolve claims that the online marketplace acted as an unregistered broker of shares. It was the first action in a broad probe of trades involving nonpublic startups.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at bwomack1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net





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Treasuries Drop on Outlook in Worst Quarter Since 2010

By Daniel Kruger - Mar 31, 2012 11:00 AM GMT+0700

Treasuries had their worst quarter since the last three months of 2010 while corporate bonds surged as the world’s largest economy showed signs of improvement.

U.S. government securities lost 1 percent from the start of the year to March 29, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. An index of investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds returned 3.2 percent, the most since the third quarter of 2010. Treasuries also trailed German debt, while stocks surged. U.S. payrolls added more than 200,000 jobs for a fourth month in March, the longest such run since 2000, data next week may show.

“Our economy is gaining traction,” said Thomas Roth, senior Treasury trader in New York at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities USA Inc. “If you think things are getting better, you’re not supposed to buy 10-year notes with 2 percent yields.”

Benchmark 10-year note yields climbed 33 basis points, or 0.33 percentage point, from the end of 2011 to 2.21 percent yesterday in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. They reached 2.40 percent on March 20, the highest level since Oct. 28, a week after the Federal Reserve upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy. They had touched a record low 1.67 percent in September. The average over the past decade is 3.86 percent.

Ten-year yields will increase to 2.54 percent by year-end, according to the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 77 financial companies, with the most recent projections given the heaviest weightings.

Thirty-year bond yields rose 44 basis points from January through March to 3.34 percent.

Risk Appetite

Stocks rallied as data showing U.S. economic improvement fueled risk appetite. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had its biggest first-quarter advance since 1998, gaining 12 percent.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the last three months of 2011, the same as previously estimated, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed on March 29. It gained at a 1.8 percent pace in the prior quarter. Consumer spending rose by 0.8 percent in February, the most in seven months, Commerce Department data showed yesterday.

“The U.S. has got some legs, at least for the next couple of quarters,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Italy. “There remain all sorts of issues, but I think the U.S. is going to continue to positively surprise.”

Employment Report

Employers in the U.S. added 205,000 jobs in March, economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast before the Labor Department reports the data on April 6. The monthly increase was last below 200,000 in November. It would be the longest stretch above that figure since the five months ended in January 2000.

Treasuries (YCGT0025) fell this month as Greece pushed through the biggest sovereign restructuring in history after getting private investors to forgive more than 100 billion euros ($132 billion) of debt. The move opened the way for a 130 billion-euro bailout package designed to prevent a collapse of the economy.

“Part of the reason yields went up was the better economic numbers,” Maury Harris, chief economist at UBS AG in New York, one of the 21 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed, said March 28. “But an important part of that was” a decline in the “risk coming out of Europe with the progress that you’ve seen there.”

German (GDBR10) 10-year bunds were little changed this quarter as their haven appeal waned, with yields falling four basis points to 1.79 percent. Treasuries still lagged behind German sovereign debt, which returned 0.2 percent from January through March.

Real Yield

The increase in U.S. yields this year has brought them closer to the annual rate of inflation. Ten-year notes have a so-called real yield of minus 66 basis points, compared with minus 152 basis points at the end of 2011.

The five-year, five-year forward break-even rate, which projects the pace of consumer-price increases starting in 2017, was 2.66 percent on March 28 after reaching 2.78 percent on March 19, the highest level since August.

While the measure, which the Fed prefers to look at in determining inflation expectations and monetary policy, is up from this year’s low of 2.37 percent on March 5, it’s below the 2.72 percent average over the past decade.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week the economic recovery isn’t assured. Policy makers don’t rule out further options to support growth, he said on March 27, according to a transcript of an ABC News interview provided by the network.

Quantitative Easing

The central bank bought $2.3 trillion of debt under two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 to June 2011 to support the economy. It also has kept the benchmark interest rate for overnight loans between banks at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008 and has pledged to keep it there through most of 2014.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said March 29 the central bank may need to raise interest rates before late 2014 and additional stimulus isn’t necessary as the U.S. economy shows signs of strength.

“A lot of people were quick to embrace” the changes suggested by U.S. yields’ climb from March 13 through March 20, Scott Sherman, an interest-rate strategist at the primary dealer Credit Suisse Group AG in New York, said yesterday. “They priced out expectations for additional asset purchases. They also priced forward earlier rate increases.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net





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Clinton Says Will Soon Be Clear If Iran Serious About Talks

By Nicole Gaouette - Mar 31, 2012 9:07 PM GMT+0700

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it will soon be clear whether Iran is serious about talks on its nuclear program, and warned that the window to engage “will not remain open forever.”

Negotiations between Iran, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany are set to be held April 13 and 14 in Istanbul, Clinton said, even as the U.S. and its allies pursue a range of sanctions against the Islamic republic. While the U.S. says Iran must allay concerns that it’s pursuing nuclear weapons, Iran says its program is for peaceful purposes, including medical research.

“It soon will be clear whether Iran’s leaders are prepared to have a serious, credible discussion about their nuclear program,” Clinton said today in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital. “It is up to Iran’s leaders to make the right choice. So far they have given little reason for confidence. What is certain is that Iran’s window to seek and obtain a peaceful resolution will not remain open forever.”

Clinton is in Riyadh for the inaugural meeting of a Gulf Cooperation Council strategic group to discuss the creation of a missile defense system. She goes to Istanbul this evening for an April 1 ‘Friends of Syria’ meeting, bringing together Syrian opposition groups and their international backers.

Syria has said it accepts a six-point UN peace plan put forward by Kofi Annan, the former UN chief who is acting as the international body’s envoy to Syria. It calls for President Bashar al-Assad’s government to pull back its forces, allow humanitarian aid workers and international monitors to enter, and permit peaceful protests to take place.

Clinton warned that verbal acceptance of the proposal is not enough.

“The world will judge Assad’s sincerity by what he does, not by what he says,” Clinton said. “As of today, regime forces continue to shell civilians, lay siege to neighborhoods, and even target places of worship.”

At least 25 people were killed by security forces in Syria today, the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in an e-mail.

Clinton said Annan should set a deadline for Syria to meet its commitment to implement the peace plan. The GCC, in a closing statement for today’s meeting, urged the envoy “to determine a timeline for next steps if the killing continues.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicole Gaouette in Riyadh at ngaouette@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Walcott at jwalcott9@bloomberg.net




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Obama Plans Overhaul of Student-Loan Debt Collector Practices

By John Hechinger - Mar 31, 2012 11:00 AM GMT+0700

The Obama administration proposed requiring that debt collectors let student-loan borrowers make payments based on what they can afford, rather than on the size of their debt.

The U.S. Education Department, which hires private collectors, said yesterday it would mandate that the companies use a standard form to gather debtors’ income and expenses. If borrowers protest, they would be offered an income-based formula, which can result in payments as low as $50 a month for an unmarried person with $20,000 in income and $20,000 in loans.

A "Bail Out Schools, Not Banks" protest as President Barack Obama spoke about college affordability at Colorado University in Denver on October 26, 2011. Photographer: Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty Images

The collection companies -- which receive commissions of as much as 20 percent of recoveries -- are facing complaints that they insist on stiff payments from defaulted borrowers even though the Obama administration and Congress have approved more- lenient plans, Bloomberg News reported March 26. The education department is also reviewing the commissions it pays collectors.

“We definitely feel a sense of urgency to make sure we are doing everything we can to serve the interests of taxpayers and students,” Justin Hamilton, an Education Department spokesman, said in a telephone interview.

The agency first proposed changing the rule governing the treatment of defaulted borrowers a year ago, Hamilton said. After a public comment period, the regulation may take effect as soon as July 2013.

More Favorable

The final proposal, worked out yesterday in discussions with negotiators representing the government, industry and borrowers, was more favorable to the debtors than what the agency originally suggested, according to Deanne Loonin, an attorney with the National Consumer Law Center in Boston.

In particular, for students seeking to “rehabilitate” their loans in default, the proposed rule prohibits basing payments on a borrower’s loan amount, which has been standard practice for collectors, Loonin said in a telephone interview. Current government contracts provide what are among the biggest incentives to debt collectors that extract minimum payments based on loan amounts.

“This regulation is a really important step toward treating very vulnerable borrowers consistently and fairly and giving them the second chance they are entitled to by law,” said Loonin, who represented borrowers in the negotiations.

‘Best Information’

Along with examining incentive payments in borrower contracts, the department is looking at collector scripts and “making sure they’re giving people the best information available,” Secretary of Education Arne Duncan said in an interview on March 28, after testifying about the agency’s budget before a House panel.

With $67 billion of student loans in default, the Education Department hires 23 private debt-collection companies to chase borrowers. The contractors include Pioneer Credit Recovery, a unit of SLM Corp. (SLM), the largest student-loan company, known as Sallie Mae.

Companies that collect student loans directly for the department and through state agencies received about $1 billion in commissions last year, according to a review of contracts and agency data.

Sallie Mae, based in Newark, Delaware, will abide by any changes from the Education Department, said Patricia Nash Christel, a spokeswoman.

“We’re proud to offer programs that give consumers the opportunity to improve their credit and provide cost savings for the American taxpayer,” Christel said in an e-mail.

In 2009, Congress expanded a program that lets lower-income borrowers tie payments to their incomes. Debtors pay on a sliding scale tied to their debt, salaries and family obligations.

In October, Obama proposed making payments even lower and forgiving loans after two decades for some borrowers, a change that could take effect as soon as this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Hechinger in Boston at jhechinger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lisa Wolfson at lwolfson@bloomberg.net


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Groupon Reports ‘Material Weakness,’ Restates Quarterly Revenue

By Ari Levy - Mar 31, 2012 11:01 AM GMT+0700

Groupon Inc. (GRPN), the largest provider of daily deals online, reported a “material weakness” in its financial controls and said fourth-quarter results were worse than previously stated because of higher refunds to merchants.

The revisions reduced revenue in the period by $14.3 million to $492.2 million, the Chicago-based company said yesterday in a regulatory filing. Groupon had reported $506.5 million last month.

Andrew Mason, chief executive officer of Groupon Inc., in New York. Photographer: Stephen Yang/Bloomberg

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Kedrosky, author of the Infectious Greed Blog and a Bloomberg contributing editor, talks about Groupon Inc.'s revision of its fourth-quarter results. The largest provider of daily deals online reported a "material weakness" in its financial controls and said results were worse than previously stated. Kedrosky speaks with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg West." (Source: Bloomberg)

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Groupon Inc., the largest provider of daily deals online, reported a "material weakness" in its financial controls and said fourth-quarter results were worse than previously stated because of higher refunds to merchants. Trish Regan reports on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

Groupon's international company headquarters, launched in Chicago in November 2008, now markets products and services in 43 countries around the world. Photographer: Scott Olson/Getty Images

The announcement marks another setback for Groupon, which has struggled to get its financial statements in order since filing for an initial public offering in June. Two months after its prospectus, the company abandoned a controversial accounting method for operating income after a review by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Groupon then restated 2010 results in September because it had counted the total amount of its daily- deal sales as revenue, including fees paid to merchants.

“This feeds some of the negative sentiment around their disclosure,” said Ken Sena, an analyst at Evercore Partners Inc. in New York, who has an equalweight rating on Groupon shares.

Groupon shares fell 5.9 percent to $17.29 in extended trading yesterday after the announcement. The stock, down 8.1 percent since the IPO in November, had climbed 3.8 percent earlier in the day.

‘Wildly Profitable’

Groupon also stumbled ahead of its IPO when Chairman Eric Lefkofsky said the company is “going to be wildly profitable” in an interview with Bloomberg News. In July, the company updated its IPO filing, asking investors to disregard those comments because they didn’t accurately or completely reflect his views.

The changes announced yesterday are “are primarily related to an increase to the company’s refund reserve accrual,” leading to higher reimbursement rates, Groupon said. In response to the conclusion that the company’s internal controls contained a material weakness, Groupon said it’s been working for several months with an accounting firm and will report on the effectiveness of those controls by the end of the year. While Groupon’s independent auditor is Ernst & Young LLP, the company said it’s working with a different accounting firm.

The auditors are at fault for not identifying problems with the financial controls earlier, said Herman Leung, an analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group in San Francisco.

Lack of Controls?

“This should have been highlighted by the auditors,” said Leung, who has a neutral rating on shares of Groupon and doesn’t own the stock. “The business is growing so fast that it sounds like they don’t have the proper financial controls to deal with the growth.”

Charlie Perkins, a spokesman for New York-based Ernst & Young, declined to comment on the earnings restatement.

Groupon said the revision accounts for an increase in higher-priced deals, which are more likely to be refunded by customers. Last year the company began Groupon Reserve, a service for upscale deals such as a five-course meal at Santa Monica, California-based restaurant Whist for $99.

The higher refunds widened Groupon’s net loss by $22.6 million, or 4 cents a share.

Groupon pioneered the daily-deal market, where consumers buy discounts on restaurant meals, nail-salon packages and other services. Groupon (GRPN) splits the revenue from the offers with merchants.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ari Levy in San Francisco at alevy5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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Brzezinski Says Romney Lacks ‘Grasp’ of Foreign Policy

By Viola Gienger - Mar 31, 2012 11:01 AM GMT+0700

A former Democratic national security adviser assailed Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney for lacking a grasp of foreign policy and said the former Massachusetts governor would return the U.S. to the policies of George W. Bush.

“If we take seriously what he has been saying in the course of the campaign, we have every reason to be very worried,” former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital With Al Hunt,” airing this weekend. “He probably subscribes to the notions articulated by his Republican predecessor,” George W. Bush, Brzezinski said.

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greeted by Maj. Gen. Kelley, deputy commander land component forces, Camp Arifjan, Kuwait, on May 23, 2006. Photographer: Lt. Col. Martin Moerschell/United States Air Force/AP Photo

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski talks with Bloomberg's Al Hunt about Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's foreign policy stance. Former CBS Sports college basketball analyst Billy Packer talks about this weekend's NCAA men's basketball tournament semifinals. Bloomberg's Greg Stohr and commentators Kate O'Beirne and Margaret Carlson speak about the Supreme Court's review of President Obama's health-care law. (Source: Bloomberg)

Romney is surrounding himself with advisers from the Bush administration, and he doesn’t display a “broad grasp of what is unique about this century, how it differs from the preceding one,” said Brzezinski, who was President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser.

In Brzezinski’s view, the best candidate to succeed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a second term for Obama would be Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat and former presidential nominee. Chuck Hagel, a former Senate Republican from Nebraska, also would be “awfully good,” he said.

Romney has faced criticism from Republican rivals as well as Democrats for comments such as his description this week of Russia as “without question, our number-one geopolitical foe.”

Campaign Advisers

His campaign advisers have included Robert Joseph, a former White House and State Department official under Bush who helped coordinate a white paper on what the Bush administration said was Saddam Hussein’s “quest for nuclear weapons.” No evidence of an Iraqi nuclear weapons program was found after the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003.

Romney’s comments on Iran, Brzezinski said, “are just so casual, and at the same time so militant, that one has to wonder whether he’ll feel bound by what he said in the course of the campaign.”

Brzezinski, an early supporter of then-candidate Barack Obama, also said he’s been disappointed by what he said is the president’s failure to capitalize on his understanding of foreign policy.

Brzezinski, author of the book “Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power,” published in January, said the U.S. in recent decades has missed opportunities to generate the political will and make the necessary sacrifices to avoid a slide into what he says would be a chaotic world marred by sporadic violence.

Sermons, Strategy

Obama hasn’t been able “to set a firm course of action and to, in effect, combine his tendency to sermonize with his capacity to strategize,” Brzezinski, who now serves as a counselor and trustee for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington policy research organization, said in the interview.

Iran’s nuclear program is one area in which Obama is being backed into a corner, Brzezinski said.

Israeli officials have said time is running out for diplomacy or financial sanctions before it’s too late to use a military strike that might prevent Iran from developing the ability to build a nuclear weapon. Iran says it’s pursuing nuclear power solely to generate electricity and for medical research.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak appear to be trying to “maneuver us into a situation in which we feel we have to support them,” risking Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf region, Brzezinski said.

Patience on Iran

The U.S. should “be patient in pursuing” an agreement with Iran, while extending its nuclear deterrence pledge to Israel and Persian Gulf nations, the former national security adviser said.

“We have done that successfully in protecting South Korea and Japan from North Korea,” he said. “We did the same thing for decades in Europe against the Soviet Union. We have deterred the would-be nuclear threats, but we didn’t preempt and go to war in a preventive attack.”

A pre-emptive attack on Iran to stop its nuclear program “will produce disasters now,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Viola Gienger in Washington at vgienger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Walcott at jwalcott9@bloomberg.net





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