Economic Calendar

Monday, July 21, 2008

Paulson Says Fannie-Freddie Plan Critical to Confidence in U.S.

By John Brinsley

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson suggested that U.S. lawmakers must pass his rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to avert a slide in confidence in U.S. financial markets.


International ``investors need to know that we in the United States understand how important these institutions are to the capital markets,'' Paulson said yesterday on CNN's ``Late Edition'' program. He separately declined to reject Democrats' calls for a second fiscal-stimulus package, as the effects of the first initiative wane.

Paulson's remarks, on the eve of a two-day visit to Wall Street, indicate he's raising the stakes for lawmakers debating his proposed rescue. He reiterated his optimism that Congress will enact the plan, including potentially unlimited government investment in the firms that account for almost half the $12 trillion U.S. home-loan market.

``It sounds like a deal is going to get done,'' Robert Davis, executive vice president of the American Bankers Association in Washington. Paulson ``is not using his political capital to sell an unpopular program. It's a program that can get broad support even if it's controversial.''

The Treasury chief, appearing on Sunday morning television shows in Washington for the first time since the government's rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. in March, said ``I don't want to speculate about a second stimulus package.''

Pelosi Plan

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, is pushing a measure to boost the economy with about $50 billion in tax rebates and public works projects.

Paulson said that the first package, totaling about $110 billion in tax rebates, is ``clearly'' butressing consumer spending.

Economists this month raised their estimates for economic growth in the second quarter to account for the first stimulus. At the same time, they reduced their projections for the second half, anticipating the impact will fade. The median estimate indicated a 0.5 percent annualized expansion rate in the final three months of 2008, the weakest in six years.

The Treasury secretary is scheduled to spend today in private meetings with executives from financial services companies and will give a speech tomorrow on the condition of the U.S. economy and capital markets.

Paulson yesterday said the biggest challenge the economy faces is reversing the downturn in housing, where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are key sources of financing.

New Regulator

The Treasury chief is pushing Congress to authorize the Treasury to purchase equity stakes in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and expand government-backed credit lines to them. He also said he wants the legislation to include a measure that gives ``real teeth'' to the companies' regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

Freddie Mac shares have tumbled 73 percent this year and Fannie Mae has dropped 66 percent on concern about the value for mortgage-backed securities that the two government-sponsored enterprises sell to investors worldwide.

``What the plan does on the one hand is try to provide a shot of confidence that the GSEs will be able to fund themselves and keep operating,'' said Bruce Kasman, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase & Co., in New York. ``But it also creates some uncertainty as to what the ultimate obligation of the government is going to be.''

`Very Optimistic'

In a separate interview on the CBS News ``Face the Nation'' program yesterday, Paulson said ``I'm very optimistic that we're going to get what we need from Congress.''

The economy is in a ``challenging time'' and probably will have ``slow growth'' for ``months'' as higher oil prices prolong the slowdown, Paulson told CBS. The banking system is ``sound'' and regulators are being ``vigilant,'' though some banks are starting to struggle, he said.

Five banks have failed so far this year, fewer than the 250 average during the savings-and-loan crisis almost two decades ago, Paulson said. Still, the list of troubled banks is bound to ``grow longer,'' he said on CBS.

On CNN, Paulson said he was not ``caught by surprise'' by concerns that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two companies that were created with government charters, wouldn't have adequate capital.

``I was working quite diligently with Congress to get reform, and we're very close to getting reform,'' he said.

President George W. Bush, in his weekly radio address, two days ago said the two play a ``central role'' in the housing system and are needed to continue providing credit ``during this time of stress in the financial markets.''

Lawmakers from both parties have sought to put constraints on the plan on concern it may put American taxpayers at risk while giving the Treasury unprecedented authority. House Democrats also plan to include in their bill almost $4 billion for communities to purchase foreclosed homes, a measure Bush has threatened to veto.

To contact the reporters on this story: John Brinsley in Washington at jbrinsley@bloomberg.net



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Forex Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DeltaStock Inc. | Jul 21 08 08:49 GMT |

EUR/USD

Current level-1.5879

EUR/USD is in an uptrend from recent bottom at 1.5301, that was the final of the prolonged consolidation since 1.5909 (17 March 2008). Technical indicators are slowly rising and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.5609 and 1.5095.


The rebound from recent bottom at 1.5781 is more corrective in nature than impulsive, but we still wait for a break above 1.5893 to target 1.5951 and probably 1.5991. After breaking above 1.5893, crucial for the uptrend will become Friday's intraday low at 1.5806.

Today's strategy: Buy on a break above 1.5887, stop below 1.5843, target projected at 1.5944.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.5891 1.60-sentiment 1.5811 1.5537
1.5951 1.6216 1.5763 1.5301

USD/JPY

Current level - 106.56

The pair has finalized its corrective uptrend from 95.75 mid-term bottom with the recent top at 108.59. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 105.81 and 107.25.

The advance above 106.27 has rejected our idea for prolonged consolidation between 104.37 and 105.91, so we are rather neutral till we see a break above 107.31, that will set new target at 109.51. Nevertheless we favor the idea, that range bound trading is to be preferred, below 107.10 and above 105.13. Intraday a minor downtrend is on the run, towards 105.88. resistance can be found at 106.71.

Today's strategy: sell for 105.88 and partially for 105.43. Stop above 106.83.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
107.10 108.66 105.88 103.83
107.75 109.51 105.16 100.00

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.9935

The pair is in a broad consolidation above 1.9338 and below 2.0397. Technical indicators are flat on the higher time-frames and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.9685 and 1.9982.

Still consolidating after 2.0154 peak and we are tempted to think, that this minor downtrend is coming to an end soon and a reversal is to be expected around 1.9881-47 for advance towards 2.0067, en route to 2.0145.

Today's strategy : Buy on a break above 1.9996, stop below intraday low, first target 2.0061, second is TBD later.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.9996 2.0274 1.9963 1.9477
2.0073 2.0397 1.9901 1.9192

DeltaStock Inc. - Online Forex & Securities Broker
www.deltastock.com

RISK DISCLAIMER: These analyses are for information purposes only. They DO NOT post a BUY or SELL recommendation for any of the financial instruments herein analyzed. The information is obtained from generally accessible data sources. The forecasts made are based on technical analysis. However, Delta Stock’s Analyst Dept. also takes into consideration a number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors, which we believe impact the price moves of the observed instruments. Delta Stock Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon the information on this page. Delta Stock Inc. shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation, losses or unrealized gains that may result. Any information is subject to change without notice.


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U.K. Home Prices Drop Most Since 2002, Rightmove Says

By Svenja O'Donnell

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices dropped in July from a year earlier for the first time since Rightmove Plc started measuring them in 2002, as the squeeze on lending pushed up the number of unsold properties to a record.


The average asking price for a home fell an annual 2 percent to 235,219 pounds ($469,544), Britain's most-used property Web site said in a statement today. On the month, prices declined 1.8 percent, the biggest drop since December. Prices increased in London by 0.3 percent from June.

House prices will fall about 10 percent this year and 6 percent in 2009, the Ernst & Young Item Club, a forecasting group which uses the same model as the Treasury, said today. Britons, laden with a record 1.4 trillion pounds of debt, are struggling to afford homes as banks curb lending and credit costs increase.

``Banks need to be careful they do not get blamed for a second crash in 20 years'' by limiting loans, Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement. ``The `doom and gloom' attitude should be about the drastically low levels of sales which affect the wider economy.''

House prices may fall further by as much as 30 percent and unemployment will increase as the U.K. slips into a recession, Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said in an interview published in the Guardian today. The economy may already be contracting, the newspaper cited him as saying.

Pound Drops

The pound fell against the dollar after Rightmove's report and Blanchflower's comments. The U.K. currency slid to $1.9921 as of 8:36 a.m. in London, from $1.9989 late in New York on July 18.

The stock of unsold property per real-estate agent rose for a sixth month to 77, the highest ever measured by Rightmove, from 74 in June. Prices for properties in the West Midlands fell the most on the month, declining 3.7 percent. London was the only region to show an increase in prices, the report showed.

Property sales dropped to the lowest in at least 30 years, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said July 15. The Item Club forecast today that housing transactions will drop 35 percent this year.

Demand for commercial property dropped in the second quarter to the lowest in at least a decade, RICS said today. Fifty percent more surveyors reported a drop in demand than those reporting an increase, the report showed.

Home Loans

Mortgage approvals fell to their lowest level in at least nine years in May, the Bank of England said on June 30. Banks are curbing lending following the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market, which so far has cost financial institutions worldwide $423 billion in losses and writedowns.

HBOS Plc, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, said last week that house prices, which tripled in the past decade, dropped in June from a year earlier by the most since 1992. Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance said in an interview last week that there is ``clearly a risk'' that house prices will fall further.

Consumer-price increases and the worst housing-market slump since the last recession have eroded living standards and helped push the support for Prime Minister Gordon Brown's ruling Labour Party close to the lowest level since World War II.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has kept the benchmark interest-rate unchanged at 5 percent for the past three months as it tries to curb consumer spending while keeping the economy from falling into a recession. Inflation accelerated to 3.8 percent in June, the fastest pace in 11 years.

The economy will grow 1.5 percent this year and then 1 percent in 2009, the weakest pace since 1992, the Item Club said in a statement today. The group predicted that slowing expansion will allow the Bank of England to cut the benchmark interest rate to 4 percent by the end of 2009.

``This will help to put a cushion under the level of demand in the economy and set the scene for a recovery in 2010,'' said Peter Spencer, economic adviser to the Item Club and a former U.K. Treasury official.

To contact the reporter on this story: Svenja O'Donnell in London at sodonnell@bloomberg.net.



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Ringgit May Fall Should Malaysia Hold Interest Rates, UBS Says

By Patricia Lui

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's ringgit may decline should the central bank refrain from raising borrowing costs this week amid accelerating inflation, according to UBS AG, the world's second-biggest currency trader.

The local currency has retreated 3.4 percent from a decade high in April after elections the previous month saw Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's power base erode, with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim challenging his leadership. Bank Negara Malaysia has kept interest rates unchanged since April 2006 while a government report this week may show inflation quickened to a 26-year high.

``The ringgit has been underperforming quite a bit in recent sessions due to the political uncertainty and if we do see a jump in inflation data and the central bank leaves rates unchanged, the ringgit may fall,'' Nizam Idris, a Singapore- based currency strategist at UBS, said in an interview.

The ringgit may weaken to 3.25 against the dollar in the coming days, a level last touched on July 11, Nizam forecast, from 3.2362 as of 2:09 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Central banks of Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and India have raised interest rates this year to combat inflation as crude oil prices touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel this month.

Malaysia increased fuel prices by 41 percent last month. The annual pace of inflation in June will accelerate to 6.6 percent, from 3.8 percent in May, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The government is due to release the data on July 23, before the central bank's policy meeting on July 25.

Rate Expectations

The central bank will raise the overnight policy rate to 3.75 percent from 3.5 percent, according to the median forecast of 16 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Eight analysts forecast a quarter-percentage point increase, one expects a half-point raise and the remaining seven don't expect any change.

The inflation basket comprises government-controlled items which may affect its accuracy, Nizam said.

``If you want to curb inflation and you base it on data distorted by subsidies, you may be lulled into complacency and not react sufficiently,'' Nizam said.

Recent political uncertainties and economic data showing signs of slowing growth ``may complicate matters'' and ``keep the central bank a bit cautious on rate hikes,'' he said.

Malaysia's inflationary expectations are ``contained'' and rising prices are being driven by higher costs rather than increased demand, Second Finance Minister Nor Mohamed Yakcop said today, adding that last month's fuel-price increase may trigger a ``one-off hike'' in the inflation rate.

Growth Outlook

The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research cut this year's economic growth forecast to 4.6 percent from an earlier estimate of 5.4 percent, the Business Times reported on July 18. The economy may expand between 4.5 percent and 5 percent this year, the central bank said on June 30.

Anwar was arrested and released on bail last week on allegations of sodomy, which he said were fabricated to derail his political comeback. He was fired as deputy prime minister and jailed in 1998 after similar accusations. He has vowed to topple Abdullah's Barisan Nasional government by mid-September.

To contact the reporter on this story: Patricia Lui at plui4@bloomberg.net



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Philippine Peso to Rise 6% by Dec. 31, SM Investment's Sio Says

By Lilian Karunungan

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippine peso may rise 6 percent by year-end as overseas workers send more money home and the central bank raises interest rates, said Jose Sio, chief financial officer at the holding company of billionaire Henry Sy.


The currency will climb as high as 42 per dollar by Dec. 31, said Sio at SM Investments Corp., which owns the Philippines' largest shopping mall operator and its second-biggest local bank. He said that was his own personal forecast. The bank has branches in malls handling some of the $1.4 billion in monthly remittances to the nation from workers abroad.

``There will be more dollars coming in from overseas workers,'' which will boost the peso, Sio said in an interview from Manila. The company will keep building new shopping malls, which include branches of Banco de Oro Unibank Inc., he said.

Remittances from Filipinos working overseas, which account for 10 percent of the economy, increased 15.6 percent in May from a year ago to $1.43 billion. SM's profit grew 13 percent in the first quarter as these inflows, which usually peak in December, helped bolster sales at the company's malls.

The peso lost 7.9 percent against the dollar in the past six months, the worst-performer among the 10 most-active Asian currencies outside of Japan after the Indian rupee, as inflation accelerated to a 14-year high in June. The central bank last week increased its 2008 inflation estimate to a range of 9 percent to 11 percent, which has deterred foreign investors from buying the nation's assets

Remittances

Sio's forecast is more bullish than the median estimate for the currency to reach 44.50 by the fourth quarter, based on 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Only four analysts have a more optimistic forecast. The peso was at 44.37 as of 9:59 a.m. in Manila, according to the Bankers Association of the Philippines.

SM Investment raised $350 million two weeks ago for expansion and general expenses by selling five-year dollar bonds at a fixed rate of 6.75 percent. The company is controlled by Sy, the country's second-richest man according to Forbes magazine.

The peso will also rebound as the U.S. currency weakens, said Sio. The U.S. Dollar Index on ICE Futures in New York, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, has declined 6 percent this year on concern credit-market losses will deepen from the slump in the housing mortgage market. It fell 1.2 percent in the past month.

Philippine policy makers last week increased the benchmark interest rate by more than most economists forecast to quell inflation. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas boosted the rate it pays banks for overnight deposits by the most since 2000 to 5.75 percent on July 17. The rate is 3.75 percentage points higher than that of the U.S., the most since 2005.

``There will be more encouragement to invest in pesos,'' Sio said. The central bank ``bit the bullet with a 50-basis- point increase, instead of a creeping'' gradual rate rise. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Inflation

The peso may also gain on prospects sales by overseas investors of local securities will taper off, Sio said. There's been a net outflow of $411 million in foreign portfolio investments this year through June 27, the Philippine central bank said last week. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index has fallen 34 percent this year.

``The majority of them have already liquidated their investments,'' said Sio, referring to overseas investors. ``Demand for dollars will be reduced.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net



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Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by iFOREX.bg | Jul 21 08 08:41 GMT |

GBP/USD 1.9909

GBP/USD Open 1.9981 High 1.9992 Low 1.9916 Close 2.0041

The British Pound continued stepping off its 4 month top record on Friday against the US Dollar from Friday's top 1.9992 to the bottom 1.9916, which are the the first resistance and support levels respectively for the currency couple today. Today the GBP is trying to recover. If the negative trend continues, next support is expected at 1.9840, followed by 1.9770. In upward direction next resistance for today is expected at 2.0150, the break of which would lead to next target 2.0240.

Technical resistance levels: 1.9990 2.0150 2.0240
Technical support levels: 1.9915 1.9840 1.9770

Trading range: 1.9895 - 1.9960

Trend: Upward

Buy at 1.9909 SL 1.9879 TP 1.9949

iFOREX.bg Forecasts and Trading Signals
http://www.zifx.com





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Asian Currencies: Philippine Peso, Malaysia's Ringgit Gain

By Lilian Karunungan and Karl Lester M. Yap

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippine peso rose, leading gains in Asian currencies, as crude-oil costs near a six-week low helped cool demand for dollars to pay the nation's fuel bill. The Malaysian ringgit also advanced.

The peso rose for a third day after the oil price had its biggest weekly fall in more than three years, reducing import costs for the Philippines which buys almost all its energy needs overseas. The currency traded near the highest in four weeks as investors were lured to the nation's assets after the central bank on July 17 raised its benchmark interest rate by more than economists expected.

``Oil prices heading lower are giving support to the peso,'' said Jonathan Ravelas, an economist at Banco de Oro Unibank in Manila.

The peso rose 0.2 percent to 44.387 per dollar as of 12:26 p.m. in Manila, extending its advance over the past three days to 2.5 percent, according to Tullett Prebon Plc. The ringgit traded at 3.2365 per dollar versus 3.2413 on July 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Crude oil traded at $129.60 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling to $128.88 on July 18, the lowest close since June 5. Prices dropped 11 percent last week, the most since December 2004, on concern weaker economic growth will curb demand in the U.S., the world's No. 1 buyer of the fuel.

Remittances to Increase

The Philippine peso may rise 6 percent by year-end as overseas workers send more money home and the central bank raises interest rates, said Jose Sio, chief financial officer at the holding company of billionaire Henry Sy.

The currency will climb as high as 42 per dollar by Dec. 31, said Sio at SM Investments Corp., which owns the Philippines' largest shopping mall operator and its second-biggest local bank. He said that was his own personal forecast. The bank has branches in malls handling some of the $1.4 billion in monthly remittances to the nation from workers abroad.

Malaysia's ringgit rose on speculation the central bank will boost interest rates for the first time since April 2006 to temper inflation in Southeast Asia's third-largest economy.

The ringgit snapped a three-day losing streak before a government report on July 23 that will show inflation accelerated to 6.6 percent last month, the fastest since at least 1995, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Bank Negara Malaysia will raise its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75 percent on July 25, a separate survey shows.

Negative Interest Rate

``The real interest-rate is already in negative territory and Malaysia needs to take decisive action to hold down inflation expectations,'' said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore. A rate increase ``will certainly provide some support for the currency.''

The ringgit has advanced 1 percent this month, the third- best among Asia's 10 most-traded currencies outside Japan.

The central bank will raise the overnight policy rate to 3.75 percent, after holding it at 3.5 percent in 17 meetings since April 2006, according to the median forecast of 16 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Eight analysts forecast a 0.25 percentage point increase, one expected a 0.5 percentage point gain and the remaining seven didn't expect any change.

Malaysia and South Korea's central banks have maintained borrowing costs this year, while Indonesia, Thailand, India and the Philippines have raised them after consumer prices in the region rose at the fastest pace in more than a decade.

Indonesian Rupiah

Indonesia's rupiah halted three days of declines on speculation the central bank is seeking a stronger currency to temper inflation.

The rupiah is the second-best performer over the past month among the 10 most-active Asian currencies. Bank Indonesia boosted its benchmark interest rate three times this year as inflation quickened to a 21-month high of 11 percent in June. Central bank Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said on July 11 the central bank ``supports a stronger rupiah.''

The central bank ``wants a stronger rupiah to help on the inflation front,'' said Gundy Cahyadi, an economist at IDEAglobal in Singapore. ``Definitely, the main thing for them is they don't want too much volatility.''

The currency traded at 9,145 in Jakarta, compared with 9,152 on July 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The central bank will likely sell dollars should the rupiah decline to 9,150, said Cahyadi, who forecasts the rupiah will trade between 9,125 and 9,150 today.

Bank Indonesia increased borrowing costs by a total of 75 basis points to 8.75 percent this year.

Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar rose 0.1 percent to S$1.3512 against the U.S. currency. The Thai baht was little changed at 33.35 while the Korean won fell 0.1 percent to 1,015.25. Taiwan's dollar was little changed at NT$30.347 and Vietnam's dong was at 16,770 versus 16,795 on July 18.

To contact the reporters on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net; Karl Lester M. Yap in Manila at kyap5@bloomberg.net.



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Never Have So Many Short Sellers Made So Much Money With Stocks

By Alexis Xydias

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Investors worldwide are betting more than $1 trillion on a collapse in stock prices.


Managers from William Ackman to Jim Rogers made a total of at least $1.4 billion in July with wagers against U.S. mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Harbinger Capital Partners staked $665 million that U.K. mortgage lender HBOS Plc would drop and Sao Paulo-based hedge-fund manager Francisco Meirelles de Andrade's short selling of Cia. Vale do Rio Doce is also paying off.

More than $1.4 trillion of equities worldwide are now on loan, about a third higher than at the start of 2007, data compiled by Spitalfields Advisors, the London-based firm specializing in securities lending, show. Almost all of that is being used to speculate that shares will fall, according to James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University who studies short selling. The global economic slowdown, $447 billion in bank losses and an explosion of funds that can profit from stock declines spurred the increase in short selling, helping send 22 of 23 countries in the MSCI World Index into bear markets.

``It's a huge amount of money,'' said Peter Hahn, a London- based research fellow for Cass Business School and a former managing director at Citigroup Inc. ``Shorts have come a long way. They are getting into the mainstream, and long holders need to understand the shorts are not evil.''

$11 Trillion

While U.S. and U.K. regulators tighten rules on short sellers amid concern they're accelerating more than $11 trillion in global stock losses this year, countries from Indonesia to India are opening up to the practice, which involves borrowing stock to sell it on the expectation it can be purchased at a lower price before paying back the loan.

Assets at so-called 130/30 and 120/20 funds, or those that are allowed to both hold stocks and short them, may climb to $2 trillion by 2010 from $140 billion in 2007, according to a study last year by Westborough, Massachusetts-based Tabb Group. Spitalfields estimates these funds may borrow an additional $600 billion by 2010.

Spitalfields was founded by Mark Faulkner and Bill Cuthbert in 2004 after careers in securities lending and investment banking at firms including New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG, respectively.

Short selling on the New York Stock Exchange rose to 4.6 percent of total shares last month, the highest since at least 1931, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC, the Harrison, New York-based firm that manages money for wealthy investors and provides financial research to institutions.

Wipe Out Shareholders

Short selling of Washington-based Fannie Mae and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion of U.S. mortgages, surged before the shares plunged this month on concern they will require a bailout that would wipe out shareholders.

Fannie Mae tumbled 64 percent from the end of June, when so- called short interest stood at 138.7 million shares, through July 15, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the NYSE. Freddie Mac sank 68 percent from the end of June through July 15 after short interest reached almost 83 million on June 30, the highest since at least 1991.

Even after a 90 percent rebound by Fannie Mae and a 75 percent surge by Freddie Mac in the final three days of trading last week, that would have left the shorts with a combined profit, excluding costs, of at least $1.4 billion from June 30 through July 15, the data show.

Survival of the Fittest

Ackman, 42, who oversees $6 billion at Pershing Square Capital Management LP in New York, said on July 15 he had short positions in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Rogers, 65, said on July 14 that he hadn't covered his short positions in Fannie Mae and would increase his bet if the shares were to rally.

``Short sellers are a very important part of the ecosystem of our financial markets,'' said Angel, a professor at Georgetown's McDonough School of Business in Washington. ``The same way that lions go after a herd, they go after the weaker animals. The shorts will pick on a company where there's a legitimate controversy over its valuation.''

European short sellers have also profited during the sell- off. The Euro Stoxx 50 Short Index rose 29 percent in the first half of 2008, the best performance since at least 1992. The Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled 24 percent in the period, its worst ever start to a year.

`Market for Speculators'

A slump in British banks helped spur the U.K. Financial Services Authority to impose rules on June 20 requiring firms to disclose short positions in companies that sell shares in rights offerings, when those positions exceed 0.25 percent of the company's stock. The FSA cited short bets on June 13 for ``severe volatility in the shares of companies conducting rights issues.''

Harbinger Capital, the New York-based hedge fund run by Philip Falcone, the former head of high-yield trading at Barclays Capital, disclosed a short position of 3.29 percent in HBOS as of June 20. Edinburgh-based HBOS has slumped 62 percent this year.

``The market is becoming a market for speculators rather than a market for investors,'' said Roger Lawson, London-based director at the U.K. Shareholders' Association. ``These guys are making fat profits out of these market maneuvers. It should be restricted to a very limited level of market cap, otherwise it becomes market manipulation.''

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week limited so-called naked short sales of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and brokerages. In such a strategy, speculators sell shares they haven't secured first. The decision comes amid an investigation of whether trading abuses contributed to the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. in March.

`Send a Message'

James Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates Ltd., says the new rules won't deter most short sellers from making legitimate bets against companies.

``The SEC is trying to send a message -- I am again not quite sure what the message is,'' Chanos, a short seller and one of the first investors to raise questions about Enron Corp.'s accounting, said on Bloomberg Television from London. ``I am just not sure that this was an issue at all for the equity prices of these companies.''

The SEC's move ``squeezed'' some short sellers, forcing them to close positions they shorted earlier by buying the shares, Bespoke data show. Among Standard & Poor's 1500 companies, those with the highest short interest gained the most, rising 15.1 percent on July 16 and July 17, according to the firm's data.

So-called short covering also helped financial stocks in the S&P 500 surge 12 percent on July 16, the biggest-ever gain.

While regulators in the U.K. and U.S. move to limit some types of shorting, the practice is increasing elsewhere. India's capital markets watchdog said in December it would lift a six- year ban on short selling. Indonesia followed last month, allowing the practice for the first time.

Shorting Brazil

In Brazil, equities on loan in June jumped 22 percent from a month earlier to a record $23.3 billion, according to the Brazilian Clearing and Depository Corp. Shorting increased after the Bovespa Index climbed to an all-time high on May 20.

Francisco Meirelles de Andrade, a hedge-fund manager at Nest Investimentos Ltda., is shorting Rio de Janeiro-based Vale, the world's biggest iron-ore producer, which tumbled 6.5 percent last week after its share sale raised less than some analysts expected. His Nest Fund Ltd. Class Long Short Equities fund returned 30 percent in the 12 months through April.

``Short selling helps markets become more efficient,'' said Dallas-based David Tice, 53, founder and manager of the Prudent Bear Fund. ``Short selling is here to stay.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexis Xydias in London at at axydias@bloomberg.net.



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Euro May Decline to $1.5286 on Charts, Standard Chartered Says

By Ron Harui

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may decline to $1.5286 after its failure to hold gains above a so-called resistance level at $1.6000, said Callum Henderson, head of foreign- exchange strategy at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore.

Resistance at $1.6000 represents the record high of $1.6038 reached on July 15 and the target of $1.5286 is the May 8 low, according to Standard Chartered. Resistance is where sell orders may be clustered.

``The inability of the euro to sustain gains above $1.60 is potentially bearish,'' Henderson wrote in a research report today, citing a so-called ``long-legged doji'' that appeared on the candle charts on July 15. This pattern signals indecision and typically occurs at the end of a prolonged trend.

Europe's single currency traded at $1.5866 at 8:45 a.m. in London from $1.5847 late in New York on July 18. It has fallen 1 percent from its all-time high on July 15.

The euro may also be forming a so-called ``double top,'' Henderson wrote. The double-top pattern, which consists of two successive peaks with a trough in the middle, suggests a currency may reverse its uptrend.

The first peak is the April 22 high of $1.6019 and the second peak is the July 15 high of $1.6038, while the trough is the May 8 low of $1.5285, based on Bloomberg data.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net



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Roche Aims to Buy Rest of Genentech for $43.7 Billion

By Dermot Doherty

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Roche Holding AG, Switzerland's largest drugmaker, offered to buy the rest of Genentech Inc. for $43.7 billion to gain the largest U.S. maker of cancer medicines.


Investors in South San Francisco, California-based Genentech would get $89 a share in cash, 8.8 percent more than the July 18 closing price, Roche said today. The Basel, Switzerland-based company already owns 56 percent of Genentech.

Roche today reported a decline in first-half profit as sales of the Tamiflu pill fell because governments stopped stockpiling of the medicine, one of only two drugs available to treat pandemic influenza. The proposed acquisition would be Roche's biggest ever and would result in the U.S.'s seventh-biggest drugmaker in terms of market share. Genentech, the world's second-biggest biotechnology company, has provided Roche with its best-selling Rituxan, Avastin and Herceptin cancer therapies

``This makes a lot of sense,'' said Beatrice Kunz, a portfolio manager at Clariden Leu in Zurich who helps manage $147 billion in assets, including shares of Roche. ``The weak dollar and the fact that they are not paying a huge premium make this rather attractive.''

First-half net income fell to 5.73 billion Swiss francs ($5.58 billion) from 5.86 billion francs a year earlier, Roche said today in a separate statement. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had a median net income estimate of 5.55 billion francs. Roche, which doesn't report quarterly profit, pushed up its earnings release from July 24. Group sales decreased 3.6 percent in the first half to 22 billion francs. Revenue from Tamiflu declined 71 percent to 327 million francs.

`Very Smart'

``Roche has always been very smart in acquisitions,'' Romain Pasche, a fund manager at Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich, said before the announcement. ``This conviction is reinforced by the fact that they have some of the best top-line growth in the industry and don't really need to do this acquisition. They would do it only if it really makes sense for shareholders.''

The purchase would be the biggest in the pharmaceuticals sector since Pfizer Inc.'s 2003 purchase of Pharmacia Corp. for about $64.3 billion in stock, according to Bloomberg data. The deal would be the biggest in the industry this year. The second- biggest so far this year is Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.'s July 18 bid to buy Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $7.46 billion.

Outlook

Roche confirmed its outlook for an increase of almost 10 percent for group sales, with above-market rate growth in both its pharmaceuticals and diagnostics divisions. The forecast excludes sales of Tamiflu to governments and corporations. Roche said it expects core earnings per share to remain at least in line with the record level achieved in 2007.

The Genentech purchase would result in pretax savings of $750 million to $850 million a year and would add to EPS in the first year after closing, Roche said.

Roche is being advised by Greenhill & Co. and plans to finance the transaction through a combination of its own funds and debt. Roche's Chairman Franz Humer said he's confident the company can raise the necessary debt financing.

``We talked to a consortium of banks beforehand and I am sure the financing will not be a problem while at the same time leaving us with enough cash for further smaller and mid sized deals,'' he said in a Bloomberg interview.

Roche fell 2.5 percent to 175.2 Swiss francs as of 9:17 a.m. in Zurich trading. The shares had declined 8.2 percent this year, outperforming the Bloomberg Europe Pharmaceutical Index of 19 companies, which has declined 12 percent. Genentech rose 5 euros, or 10 percent, to 56.10 euros ($88.98) in German trading today.

Review

The Genentech board of directors is likely to establish an independent committee to review the offer, Roche said. Genentech board members who are employees of Roche won't participate in the evaluation of the proposal. The deal will likely be subject to approval by a majority of the owners of Genentech shares not held by Roche, the Swiss company said.

The offer is ``highly unlikely to succeed,'' at this level, Cazenove analysts James Millett and David Adlington wrote in a research note today. ``We would expect Roche will have to make a significantly higher offer if it is to acquire Genentech.''

Genentech's independence has always been ``a big plus,'' Clariden Leu's Kunz said. ``If the wrong people now start leaving, there may be some problems,'' she said.

Independent

Humer said the company would continue to run under the Genentech name and retain an independent research organization.

``The diversity will remain,'' he said. ``This is not about cost cutting but rather creating synergies. We will be saving infrastructure costs.''

The U.S. company raised its 2008 forecast July 14 as Avastin gained from the new use in breast cancer. Genentech said second- quarter profit rose 4.7 percent and revenue increased 8 percent to $3.2 billion, led by U.S. sales of Avastin. The medicine, first approved in 2004 for colon cancer and for lung malignancies two years later, is being studied against 20 tumor types worldwide.

Avastin sales in the U.S. rose 15 percent to $650 million, about $7 million more than analysts had projected. Rituxan, a treatment for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and rheumatoid arthritis that Genentech markets with Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Biogen Idec Inc., generated $651 million, a 12 percent increase. Sales of Tarceva, used to treat lung and pancreatic cancers, gained 17 percent to $119 million.

Profit Increase

Genentech said 2008 profit, excluding certain costs, will be $3.40 to $3.50 a share, up from a prior forecast of $3.35 to $3.45. The company is world's second-biggest biotechnology company in sales after Amgen Inc., which is based in Thousand Oaks, California.

Genentech won clearance from U.S. regulators to market Avastin for the three-fourths of women who don't have a gene mutation that raises their risk of invasive breast cancer. The added approval should boost Avastin's worldwide sales to $4 billion by 2011, said Maged Shenouda, an analyst with UBS in New York, in a note. Avastin generated $2.3 billion last year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dermot Doherty in Geneva at ddoherty9@bloomberg.net



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U.K. Pound Falls, Gilts Rise on Rightmove Report, Blanchflower

By Ron Harui and Andrew MacAskill

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound fell against the dollar and U.K. government notes rose after an industry report showed U.K. house prices dropped in July for the first time since at least 2002, adding to signs the economy is slowing.

The currency also depreciated versus the euro after Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said in an interview with the Guardian newspaper the central bank must lower interest rates to support the economy, which is entering a recession that may last more than a year.

``Blanchflower said there may be three to four quarters of contraction, and the housing data were weak,'' said Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Pte Ltd. in Singapore. ``We'll likely see downward pressure on the pound.''

The U.K. currency slid to $1.9947 by 9:30 a.m. in London from $1.9989 late in New York on July 18. Against the euro, it declined to 79.69 pence from 79.29 pence. The pound may weaken to 1.9800 today, Lee forecast.

The pound was the second-worst performer today against the dollar among the 16 most-active currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

``We are going into recession and we are probably in one right now,'' Blanchflower was cited by the Guardian as saying. ``It's not too late to stop it but we have to act right now.''

The 10-year note rose, sending the yield down 3 basis points down to 5 percent. The price of the 5 percent security due March 2018 climbed 0.25, or 2.5 pounds per 1,000-pound ($1,995) face amount, to 99.95.

The yield on the two-year gilt fell 4 basis points to 5.06 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

House Prices

The average asking price for a home in the U.K. fell an annual 2 percent to 235,219 pounds ($469,544), Rightmove Plc, Britain's most-used property Web site, said in a statement today. On the month, prices declined 1.8 percent, the biggest drop since December.

The Ernst & Young Item Club said today in a report the U.K. economy will come close to a recession as tightening credit markets and faster inflation squeeze consumer spending.

The odds of the Bank of England raising its 5 percent benchmark interest rate in August were 10 percent on July 18, compared with 15 percent on July 11, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on interest-rate swaps.

To contact the reporters on this story: Andrew MacAskill in London at amacaskill@bloomberg.net; Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net



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Bernanke, Paulson Pressed to Seek Big-Government Bank Bailout

By Rich Miller

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke and Henry Paulson are under pressure to embrace the big-government policies of America in the 1930s, or Sweden in the 1990s, to contain the conflagration engulfing the U.S. housing and financial markets.


Investors in South San Francisco, California-based Genentech would get $89 a share in cash, 8.8 percent more than the July 18 closing price, Roche said today. The Basel, Switzerland-based company already owns 56 percent of Genentech.

Roche today reported a decline in first-half profit as sales of the Tamiflu pill fell because governments stopped stockpiling of the medicine, one of only two drugs available to treat pandemic influenza. The proposed acquisition would be Roche's biggest ever and would result in the U.S.'s seventh-biggest drugmaker in terms of market share. Genentech, the world's second-biggest biotechnology company, has provided Roche with its best-selling Rituxan, Avastin and Herceptin cancer therapies

``This makes a lot of sense,'' said Beatrice Kunz, a portfolio manager at Clariden Leu in Zurich who helps manage $147 billion in assets, including shares of Roche. ``The weak dollar and the fact that they are not paying a huge premium make this rather attractive.''

First-half net income fell to 5.73 billion Swiss francs ($5.58 billion) from 5.86 billion francs a year earlier, Roche said today in a separate statement. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had a median net income estimate of 5.55 billion francs. Roche, which doesn't report quarterly profit, pushed up its earnings release from July 24. Group sales decreased 3.6 percent in the first half to 22 billion francs. Revenue from Tamiflu declined 71 percent to 327 million francs.

`Very Smart'

``Roche has always been very smart in acquisitions,'' Romain Pasche, a fund manager at Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich, said before the announcement. ``This conviction is reinforced by the fact that they have some of the best top-line growth in the industry and don't really need to do this acquisition. They would do it only if it really makes sense for shareholders.''

The purchase would be the biggest in the pharmaceuticals sector since Pfizer Inc.'s 2003 purchase of Pharmacia Corp. for about $64.3 billion in stock, according to Bloomberg data. The deal would be the biggest in the industry this year. The second- biggest so far this year is Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.'s July 18 bid to buy Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $7.46 billion.

Outlook

Roche confirmed its outlook for an increase of almost 10 percent for group sales, with above-market rate growth in both its pharmaceuticals and diagnostics divisions. The forecast excludes sales of Tamiflu to governments and corporations. Roche said it expects core earnings per share to remain at least in line with the record level achieved in 2007.

The Genentech purchase would result in pretax savings of $750 million to $850 million a year and would add to EPS in the first year after closing, Roche said.

Roche is being advised by Greenhill & Co. and plans to finance the transaction through a combination of its own funds and debt. Roche's Chairman Franz Humer said he's confident the company can raise the necessary debt financing.

``We talked to a consortium of banks beforehand and I am sure the financing will not be a problem while at the same time leaving us with enough cash for further smaller and mid sized deals,'' he said in a Bloomberg interview.

Roche fell 2.5 percent to 175.2 Swiss francs as of 9:17 a.m. in Zurich trading. The shares had declined 8.2 percent this year, outperforming the Bloomberg Europe Pharmaceutical Index of 19 companies, which has declined 12 percent. Genentech rose 5 euros, or 10 percent, to 56.10 euros ($88.98) in German trading today.

Review

The Genentech board of directors is likely to establish an independent committee to review the offer, Roche said. Genentech board members who are employees of Roche won't participate in the evaluation of the proposal. The deal will likely be subject to approval by a majority of the owners of Genentech shares not held by Roche, the Swiss company said.

The offer is ``highly unlikely to succeed,'' at this level, Cazenove analysts James Millett and David Adlington wrote in a research note today. ``We would expect Roche will have to make a significantly higher offer if it is to acquire Genentech.''

Genentech's independence has always been ``a big plus,'' Clariden Leu's Kunz said. ``If the wrong people now start leaving, there may be some problems,'' she said.

Independent

Humer said the company would continue to run under the Genentech name and retain an independent research organization.

``The diversity will remain,'' he said. ``This is not about cost cutting but rather creating synergies. We will be saving infrastructure costs.''

The U.S. company raised its 2008 forecast July 14 as Avastin gained from the new use in breast cancer. Genentech said second- quarter profit rose 4.7 percent and revenue increased 8 percent to $3.2 billion, led by U.S. sales of Avastin. The medicine, first approved in 2004 for colon cancer and for lung malignancies two years later, is being studied against 20 tumor types worldwide.

Avastin sales in the U.S. rose 15 percent to $650 million, about $7 million more than analysts had projected. Rituxan, a treatment for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and rheumatoid arthritis that Genentech markets with Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Biogen Idec Inc., generated $651 million, a 12 percent increase. Sales of Tarceva, used to treat lung and pancreatic cancers, gained 17 percent to $119 million.

Profit Increase

Genentech said 2008 profit, excluding certain costs, will be $3.40 to $3.50 a share, up from a prior forecast of $3.35 to $3.45. The company is world's second-biggest biotechnology company in sales after Amgen Inc., which is based in Thousand Oaks, California.

Genentech won clearance from U.S. regulators to market Avastin for the three-fourths of women who don't have a gene mutation that raises their risk of invasive breast cancer. The added approval should boost Avastin's worldwide sales to $4 billion by 2011, said Maged Shenouda, an analyst with UBS in New York, in a note. Avastin generated $2.3 billion last year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dermot Doherty in Geneva at ddoherty9@bloomberg.net



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Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Jul 21 08 07:51 GMT |

EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.5825, 1.5806 and 1.5781(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.5750, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.5728. Break of the latter would result in 1.5716. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.5694. Continuation will give 1.5678.

Today's resistance: - 1.5876, 1.5896, 1.5963 and 1.5997(main). Break would give 1.6023, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.6054. Break of the latter would result in 1.6076. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.6098. Continuation will give 1.6120.


USD/JPY

Today's support: - 106.30, 106.02, 105.74 and 105.57(main). Break would bring 105.36, where correction is possible. Then 105.02. If a strong impulse, we would see 104.77. Continuation would give 104.43.

Today's resistance: - 107.12 and 107.24(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 107.35, where also a correction may be. Then 107.66. If a strong impulse, we would see 107.87. Continuation will give 108.11 and 108.26.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 11 409.40, 11 348.80 and 11 325.94(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 11 289.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 11 261.10. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 11 233.13. Continuation will bring 11 193.75 and 11 162.14.

Today's resistance: - 11 521.50 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 11 548.13, where a correction may happen. Then follows 11 566.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 11 579.06. Continuation would bring 11 607.18 and 11 621.22.

FXtechtrade
http://www.fxtechtrade.com

Disclaimer: Any information presented by Nikolajs Serikovs at this very website should be in no way understood as an offer, promise or guarantee for receiving a profit or avoiding the losses. Stated here levels of support and resistance must not be construed as an investment advice or endorsement for any financial instrument. There exists no guarantee that the market would behave in accordance with the information stated here Prepared in Republic of Latvia for the worldwide distribution.





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Oil Rises From Six-Week Low as Storm Heads for Gulf of Mexico

By Alexander Kwiatkowski and Gavin Evans

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose from a six-week low in New York as a tropical storm headed toward the Gulf of Mexico, home to more than a quarter of U.S. oil production


U.S. forecasters said there is a 29 percent chance Tropical Storm Dolly may strengthen to a hurricane after it enters the Gulf of Mexico. The weather system's projected path will take it across Yucatan peninsula today, close to Mexico's largest oil field, the U.S. National Hurricane center said.

``U.S. refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico are safe at present, but Mexico's oil operations are at risk,'' said Robert Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. ``If the direction was to change, a protective shut in of production facilities across the Gulf of Mexico is likely.''

Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as $2.08, or 1.6 percent, to $130.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $130.90 at 9:02 a.m. in London.

The contract fell 41 cents, or 0.3 percent, to settle at $128.88 on July 18, the lowest close since June 5. Prices dropped 11 percent last week, the most in more than three years, on signs of slowing global economic growth and faltering U.S. fuel demand.

Iran snubbed Western efforts to get it to suspend nuclear enrichment at talks in Geneva on July 19, setting the stage for new sanctions if the Middle East's second-largest oil producer doesn't respond to an existing proposal within two weeks.

``We did not get what we were looking for,'' European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said at a press conference following four hours of talks with Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili.

`Sticking Point'

The dispute with Iran ``has become a perpetual sticking point in the background of the crude market,'' said Gerard Burg, the energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank in Melbourne. The dispute is like ``two rams butting up against each other. Neither one really wants to yield,'' he said.

Iran, the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, borders the Straits of Hormuz and has in the past threatened to close the waterway carrying about a fifth of the world's oil deliveries.

Brent crude oil for September settlement rose as much as $2.27, or 1.7 percent, to $132.46 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was trading at $132.39 a barrel at 9:02 a.m. local time.

Falling Dollar

New York oil prices have gained 36 percent this year as the Iranian dispute added to concerns about supplies from the world's largest producing region. Prices also rose as the falling U.S. dollar, weak global equity markets and supply disruptions in the North Sea and Nigeria encouraged investors to buy the commodity.

The North Atlantic hurricane season runs June through November. September is historically the busiest month for storms and hurricanes.

The northern Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 25 percent of U.S. oil production. Tropical Storm Dolly's projected path over the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula takes it north of Campeche Bay, where Petroleos Mexicanos produces about 1.07 million barrels of oil a day.

Dolly may strengthen again as it crosses the gulf on a path that may take it toward the Mexico-Texas border, hurricane center said. There is a 43 percent chance it will remain a storm, with wind speeds between 39 and 73 miles an hour and a 12 percent chance it will dissipate before making land a second time around July 24.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.netGavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net



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Rupee, Won, Lira Rally Dies as Inflation Hits Emerging Markets

By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Lester Pimentel

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- The five-year rally in emerging- market currencies is coming to an end as central banks from South Korea to Turkey struggle to contain inflation, say DWS Investments and Morgan Stanley.

The 26 developing-country currencies tracked by Bloomberg returned an average 0.96 percent in the past three months, down from 1.63 percent in the first quarter, 8.2 percent for all of 2007, and 30 percent annually since 2003. For the first time in seven years, investors are less bullish on emerging-market stocks than on U.S. equities, a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey showed last week.

Confidence in the Indian rupee is weakening after inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 13 years, stoked by soaring food and energy prices. South Korea's won will drop this year by the most since 2000, while Turkey's lira will reverse its biggest gain since at least 1972, the median estimates of strategists surveyed by Bloomberg show.

``There are some countries that suffer from weak institutions, where central banks have not been proactively fighting inflation and sentiment has deteriorated,'' said Nicolas Schlotthauer, a fund manager in Frankfurt at DWS Investments, which oversees about $400 billion. Schlotthauer said he expects the Indonesian rupiah and the Philippine and Colombian pesos to underperform emerging-market assets.

Food and energy prices account for more than 40 percent of inflation in India, Thailand and Turkey, compared with about 25 percent in the U.S., according to Morgan Stanley. Inflation exceeds targets in at least 19 emerging economies.

Slovakia to Brazil

The developing-economy currencies tracked by Bloomberg strengthened an average 32 percent in the past five years, led by gains of 94 percent in Slovakia's koruna and 93 percent in Poland's zloty as those nations forged closer ties with the European Union. In Latin America, Brazil's real has surged 80 percent while the Colombian peso has climbed 62 percent since 2002 amid a boom in commodities.

Slovakia will adopt the euro next year, while the zloty will depreciate to 3.33 against the dollar by year-end from 3.22, according the median estimate of strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. In South America, the real will weaken to 1.70 by the start of 2009 from 1.59 and the peso will decline to 1,888 from 1,805, the surveys show.

Emerging-market and high-yield bonds are poised to fall this year for first time since 1999, a Merrill Lynch index shows. Investors prefer U.S. equities over developing economies' stock markets for the first time since 2001, according to Merrill's July survey of money managers who oversee $610 billion. A net 4 percent of investors said they were ``overweight'' emerging markets, down from 25 percent in June.

`More Challenging'

``It's going to be a more challenging environment for emerging markets as you're going to see less portfolio flows,'' said Koon Chow, a Europe, Middle East and Africa foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Plc in London. ``People are focusing more on the domestic fundamentals like fiscal and monetary policy credibility. In the past, there was less differentiation.''

Fitch Ratings cut the credit outlooks in the past month on South Africa and India, whose currencies gained 74 percent and 18 percent in the five years through 2007. The South African rand slumped 11 percent this year and the rupee 9 percent as investors bet rate increases won't contain inflation and the countries struggled to boost growth and pull millions of people out of poverty.

Shortcomings `Exposed'

The World Bank estimates that about half of India's 1.1 billion population survives on less than $2 a day, while 23 percent of South Africa's workforce is unemployed, the highest rate among the 61 economies monitored by Bloomberg. That limits the ability of their central banks to fight inflation through higher borrowing costs.

India's rupee will weaken 8 percent, its worst year in a decade, while the South African rand will lose 22 percent, its worst performance since 2001, the Bloomberg surveys show.

``The shock of higher food and energy costs has exposed the major shortcomings of emerging economies in controlling inflation,'' said Stephen Jen, chief currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in London and a former Federal Reserve economist. ``I'm not sure emerging markets will respond to inflation shocks.''

Betting against currencies of emerging markets is risky because the oil and food producers among them benefit from higher prices, and those that are able to tackle inflation will attract investment, said Peter Eerdmans, head of emerging-market bonds at Investec Asset Management in London. Crude oil almost doubled in the past year, reaching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.

Energy Producers

``The beauty with our universe is that it's so diverse and there are so many stories to play,'' said Eerdmans, whose firm has $60 billion in assets. ``A lot of the bad news has started to come into the price and we see tactical opportunities.''

Eerdmans said Investec has ``long positions'' in the currencies of Nigeria, Malaysia and Russia, which are benefiting from higher oil prices and foreign direct investment, allowing them to fight inflation through currency appreciation. A long position is a bet that an asset will increase in price.

The Malaysian ringgit, which gained 6.11 percent in 2007, is up 0.24 percent this year to 3.2425, and will likely end the year little changed at 3.18, according to a Bloomberg survey of strategists. A separate poll shows the ruble weakening to 23.51 from 23.22.

For Mark Rall, senior fund manager overseeing $900 million in emerging-market debt at Union Bancaire Privee in Zurich, energy exporters including Russia and Brazil are attractive. Countries with growing current-account deficits, such as South Africa and Turkey, should be avoided, he said.

Wider Deficits

The Turkish lira will fall 12 percent, reversing a 17 percent advance during 2007, according to analysts' forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Korea's won is likely to fall 0.6 percent.

Turkey's current-account deficit may swell to a ``worrying'' $50 billion by year-end, Moody's Investors Service said July 9. South Africa's deficit will probably remain ``large and persistent'' as the country will have to rely on foreign capital to boost investment, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel wrote in the country's Star newspaper July 14. The shortfall reached a 26-year high of 9 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter.

``You have to analyze policy behavior as those that are doing the right things will do better,'' Rall said.

The reluctance of central banks in emerging markets to raise rates amid faster inflation will also hurt local-currency denominated bonds, said Edwin Gutierrez, who manages $5.5 billion in emerging-market debt in London for Aberdeen Asset Management Plc.

``Inflation is what keeps me up at night,'' said Gutierrez said. ``It's the biggest challenge going forward in emerging markets.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at lmnyanda@bloomberg.net; Lester Pimentel in New York at lpimentel1@bloomberg.net



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Korea Starts Asia's First Hog Contract Amid Concern Over Volume

By Sungwoo Park

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea, Asia's fourth-biggest economy, introduced trading of lean hog futures today amid concern that the first contract for the commodity in Asia may fail to attract investor interest.

Hogs will also be the first agriculture-linked contract offered by Korea Exchange Inc. The bourse, operator of the nation's equities and futures markets, lists stock-based contracts and in 1999 introduced a little-traded gold contract.

``We are a bit skeptical if trading will go okay with enough liquidity because the number of players is limited,'' C.H. Lee, team leader of retail sales at Woori Futures Co. in Seoul, said before trading began. ``You can secure liquidity when even ordinary individuals participate, but they don't seem to be interested and only some livestock people are.''

Pork is Korea's second-largest agricultural product by value after rice and the contract offered swine producers and processors a way to manage price risk, the exchange said June 29. Pork-related futures trade in the U.S. and Germany, it said.

Lean hogs for August delivery traded at 3,920 won per kilogram at 11.30 a.m. in Seoul after opening at 3,950 won, according to the exchange. Sixty-six contracts were traded.

``Listing lean hog futures can extend derivatives to general products and make a contribution to the development of capital markets by providing a proper hedging tool for industries other than the financials,'' the bourse said.

South Korean pork output was valued at 3.6 trillion won ($3.5 billion) in 2006, the exchange said.

Volume Challenge

``I don't think it's going to be a big player,'' Lawrence Kane, a market adviser at Stewart-Peterson Group, said on July 17 from Peoria, Illinois. ``Their biggest challenge is to create volume over the next couple of years.''

Hog futures volume averages about 29,000 contracts a day on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Korean bourse said.

Korean pork prices fluctuated by 27.2 percent last year, compared with 23.1 percent for the Kospi 200 Index and 0.5 percent for 3-year government bonds, it said. Hog futures prices will be based on average prices of the meat traded in 11 local markets, it said.

``The question is whether they can attract many of the farmers'' to use the contract and increase liquidity, Chris Yoo, a manager at global commodities with Samsung Futures Inc. in Seoul. ``Pork farmers look at pig hips, not PC monitors for future prices.''

Korean Doubts

Overseas investors and market analysts expressed doubts about initial contract volumes.

``If you'd have said China, I would think that would be a little more of interest, but Korea,'' David Bauer, President of Brite Futures Inc. in Milwaukee, said on July 17.

South Korea, which is about 78 percent self-sufficient in pork, consumes 870,000 metric tons of the meat a year, or 18 kilograms per person, the Korean bourse said.

``The outlook is not all that pessimistic because hogs are the single-biggest commodity in Korea in terms of the number of market participants, and there's a need out there for hedging against price fluctuations,'' Samsung's Yoo said.

Korean hog futures will be settled in cash, with each contract equal to 1,000 kilograms, the Korean exchange said. Trading will be from 10:15 a.m. to 3:15 p.m. local time, it said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sungwoo Park in Seoul at spark47@bloomberg.net; Molly Seltzer in Chicago at Mseltzer3@bloomberg.net



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Corn, Soybeans Decline on Favorable U.S. Crops Weather Prospect

By Jae Hur and Sungwoo Park

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Corn and soybeans dropped to their lowest in more than a month on speculation warm and wet Midwest weather will improve the U.S. crops' prospect and declining oil costs may cut demand for biofuel, easing inflation concern.

Corn lost 11 percent last week, the most since July 1996, while soybeans declined 9.3 percent last week, the most since mid-March. Wheat fell to the lowest since June 6. Oil also lost 11 percent last week, the most since Dec. 2004 on signs of slowing global economic growth and faltering U.S. fuel demand.

With crude oil surging to an all time-high above $145 a barrel, prices for corn, soybeans, wheat and rice reached records this year, spurring riots from Haiti to Egypt and Cameroon and producing countries, including China and Egypt, to curb exports to safeguard domestic supplies and cool inflation.

Corn has been pressured lower from ``the combination of improved Midwest weather in addition to heavy spillover pressure from the sharp break in crude prices,'' Toby Hassall, an analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney, said in an e-mail.

Corn for December delivery fell as much as 2.2 percent to $6.15 a bushel, the lowest since June 5, in after-hours trading on the Chicago Board of Trade and traded at $6.215 a bushel at 1:34 p.m. Singapore time.

Futures declined 22 percent from a record $7.9925 on June 27. The price is still up 76 percent in the past year on increasing global demand to feed livestock and biofuel.

Soybeans

Soybeans for November delivery dropped as much as 18 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $14.30 a bushel, the lowest since June 10, and traded at $14.39 as of 1:43 p.m. Singapore time. Futures have plunged 8 percent since reaching a record $16.3675 on July 3. The price is still up 76 percent in the past year on rising demand.

Soybeans were under pressure from corn's drop, slumping crude oil and the Argentine Senate's rejection last week of the export tax legislation which will have the effect of reducing demand for U.S. exports, Hassall said.

Crude oil rose today from a six-week low set July 18, with the contract for August delivery gaining as much as 1 percent to $130.13 a barrel.

Recent losses in grains coupled with the drops in oil prices will ``definitely go some way to easing central bankers' concerns over inflationary pressures, although it would be premature to call an end to the commodities bull market,'' Hassall said.

Australia

Wheat for September delivery dropped as much as 2.2 percent to $7.8625 a bushel and traded at $7.9650 by 1:51 p.m. Singapore time. Prices have fallen 41 percent from a record $13.495 on Feb. 27 as higher prices spurred farmers to plant more.

Parts of Western Australia state, the nation's biggest wheat grower, may get more rainfall this week, a forecaster said. Rain is critical in coming months to bolster crop yields in Australia, forecast to be the third-largest wheat exporter.

The southwest of Western Australia may get 20-50 millimeters of rainfall in the next eight days with precipitation heavier near the coast, said David Jones, head of climate analysis with the Bureau of Meteorology. It will be mostly dry in other grain growing areas, he said.

``The extent of the West Australian crop largely determines how much wheat we have to export,'' from Australia, Richard Koch, managing director of Perth-based forecaster ProFarmer Australia, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.

To contact the reporters responsible for this story: Jae Hur in Singapore at jhur1@bloomberg.net; Sungwoo Park at spark47@bloomberg.net



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Aluminum Rises From One-Month Low in Asia After Crude Oil Gains

By Li Xiaowei

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum rose from a one-month low in Asia after crude oil rebounded, renewing concerns of higher production costs for the energy-intensive metal.

Energy accounts for around 40 percent of aluminum's production costs. Crude oil gained from a six-week low in New York on speculation diplomatic tensions with Iran may escalate after the world's fourth-largest oil producer resisted United Nations demands that it suspend nuclear research.

Aluminum ``is moving in line with crude oil,'' Zeng Chao, an analyst at Everbright Futures Co., said in an e-mailed report today. Still, signs of ample supplies may offset expectations of higher costs, Zeng said.


Aluminum for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.6 percent to $3,049.75 a metric ton and traded at $3,046 at 10:31 a.m. in Shanghai. The metal dropped to $3,020 on July 18, the lowest in a month, after crude oil fell and inventories increased.

October-delivery aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 0.7 percent to 19,130 yuan ($2,803) a ton.

Aluminum stockpiles monitored by the London exchange jumped to the highest since May 2004 on July 18. China, the world's largest producer, made 1.15 million tons of the metal in June.

Among other LME-traded metals, copper rose 0.4 percent $8,115 a ton, zinc was up 0.8 percent at $1,834, lead, nickel and tin were untraded in Asia after settling at $1,970, $20,400 and $23,425 on July 18.

To contact the reporter for this story: Li Xiaowei in Shanghai at Xli12@bloomberg.net





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Daily Forex Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FOREXYARD | Jul 21 08 07:42 GMT |

Headlines

USD Continues To Be Under Pressure

Economic News

USD

When glancing back at a weekly chart several months from now, one will look at the change in the market last week and consider it a normal one. The greenback ended the trading week last week virtually unchanged against its major rivals from the levels it began the week with. A closer look into last week's trading however will show a much different picture. The greenback saw record lows against the EUR crossing 1.6035 before regaining nearly 200 pips to close the week. The same was the case for the USD/JPY shooting back up to over 106 after flirting with 103.80, as the GBP also added to the volatile conditions. The market fluctuations seen last week were caused by a host of key events, most notably the sudden drop in Oil prices that occurred mid week. As late as Tuesday afternoon Light Sweet Crude Oil was selling at $146 barrel and the EUR/USD pair had broken record highs above 1.60. By the end of Tuesday, Oil prices had dropped by as much as $10/barrel and EUR/USD was back trading near 1.58. Testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in front of the Senate Banking Committee and a simultaneous economic speech by President George W. Bush drove Crude Oil prices down and sent the dollar on a bullish path that carried on until the end of the week. When it was all said and done by Friday's closing the USD had regained ground from the week before and Crude Oil had shed nearly $20 off of its peak price.


This week should be equally intriguing as investors juggle whether the US is really out of the "recession" it has been suffering lately. As has been the case before, bullish runs by the dollar sometimes extend themselves beyond what fundamental and technical data would allow, mostly on default investor speculation that the dollar will always recover. With news from the housing and credit markets still disappointing it is hard to logically defend the positive movement in the dollar. This week the dollar is absent from any relevant market making news until Thursday and Friday when we can expect the Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. These events will almost certainly contribute to volatility in the market as any positive figure should spark even more market wide speculation on the dollar. The dollar will be absent from the news today and won't appear until tomorrow when we will await the words of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser.

Today, the US will produce a single calendar event, the Leading Index. Expect the markets to be calm today as the soft news day will likely provide little market movement.

EUR

The Euro is beginning to feel the effects of breaking record highs versus its major currency rivals and then losing them back hard and fast. The 15 Nation currency set highs against the USD and JPY this week to no avail as shortly after setting the marks it lost over 200 and 400 points respectively before range trading for the rest of the week. The big problem in the Euro-Zone is that to add to already poor consumer confidence numbers, exports, manufacturing and production are all taking a hit. The cost of parts and labor has risen dramatically in comparison to other export heavy nations like the US and Japan largely due to the inflated currency in the EZ. The ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers both showed that the rise in interest rates and the high cost of the EUR have severely hurt the most economically sound nations in the EZ, and in turn affected the EZ as a whole in the same way. Most of the movement against the USD and JPY last week which brought about these records was due more to negative info from the US and global stock markets as opposed to real Euro generated movement.

This week, news from the EZ could contribute even more to a bearish move in the EUR as the week will be highlighted by French Consumer Spending, German Ifo Business Expectations Index and Manufacturing PMI. Germany and France will also release some important material all of which is forecasted to disappoint the Euro yet again.

Today the EUR is absent from the economic docket, as investors will look toward the equities market and the price of Crude Oil as indication to the direction of the European currency.

JPY

The Japanese look to be stuck in a precarious position lately, as poor local economic data has added more concern to the already fragile inflationary issues in the country. Still, the JPY was up within its crosses in response mostly to the rise in US stocks over the last half of last week. The JPY experienced strong volatility during the week as Crude Oil price movement drove the stock markets mad. The Asian currency saw 200+ point swings against the USD and the EUR last week, en route to closing the trading session within single digits of the week before. Last week the release of the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes showed that the country faces a risky downside to growth even more now than that of inflationary concerns.

This week the Japanese will provide several indicators to the economic calendar which will likely contribute to some JPY volatility. The Tokyo Core CPI, National Core CPI and CSPI are all expected to see small gains, and alongside any bearish USD or EUR news could prove key in adding much needed points to the JPY.

Today, the Japanese observe Marine Day and local markets will be closed. Keep close eye on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY as three pairs which will see movement this week.

Crude Oil

Crude oil rose from a six-week low in New York as a storm headed toward Mexico and tensions with Iran threatened to escalate after the world's fourth-largest oil producer resisted demands to suspend nuclear research. The Crude for August delivery rose as much as 1%, to $130.13 a barrel on the New York Exchange after earlier hitting the low of $129.70 during the Asian session. Prices have plunged more than $17, or 12%, from the record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11. While signs of weakness in the U.S. economy played a role, the pace of the decline may reflect investor concern at Petroleos Mexicanos offering oil ``several years'' into the future at current prices. Rising demand outside Europe and the U.S. and the threat of supply disruption from hurricanes will probably keep oil prices in triple-figures for the foreseeable future.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The trendless tight range the pair has been going through continues with no hint of a distinct direction. After range trading for most of the day yesterday, the pair now seems to be consolidating around the 1.5850 as the volatility is beginning to decrease. Indicators are giving mixed signals although there is still a lot of positive momentum. Traders should wait for a clear signal on the hourly level before entering the market today.

GBP/USD

Bollinger bands are widened indicating increased volatility. Both the hourlies and the dailies support a bearish signal. This pair is still within a steady downward channel which is evident from the 4 H chart. Going short still seems to be the preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The pair is still traded within the bullish channel as the direction is currently unclear. No significant breach has been made in either direction, yet there is a bearish hint in the form of a cross on the 4 hour Slow Stochastic. The hourly chart's Bollinger Bands are tightening which indicates that the break is near. Going short with tight stops might be smart today.

USD/CHF

The range trading continues without a distinct breaking direction. The daily chart is giving mixed signals and is mostly floating in neutral territory. The hourlies are showing moderate bearish momentum. It appears that going short with very tight stops might be a good decision today.

The Wild Card

CHF/JPY

The pair has been trying to massively correct the intensive bullish move, and is now trading around 104.50. The sharp bearish channel is in a high spot at the moment and together with a strong bearish cross on the slow stochastic. This represents for forex investors a very good potential for a short position.

Indicators

Date Time (GMT) Country Event Period Previous Forecast Importance
2008-07-21 01:30:00 AUD PPI q/q 1.9% 1.6% *****
2008-07-21 01:30:00 AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
1.5% * ***
2008-07-21 03:00:00 NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 5.9% * *
2008-07-21 07:15:00 CHF PPI m/m 1.2% * ***
2008-07-21 14:00:00 USD Leading Index m/m 0.1% -0.1% **
2008-07-21 23:50:00 JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m 0.8% * *

FOREXYARD


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