By Theresa Barraclough
July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's five-year government notes completed a weekly decline for the first time since July 4 as stock indexes rallied, reducing demand for the security of debt.
Five-year yields this week reached the highest since July 9 after the Nikkei 225 Stock Average completed its biggest weekly advance in five months as crude oil prices declined. Bonds also fell after U.S. lawmakers approved a rescue plan for the nation's two largest mortgage-finance companies, easing concerns that financial-market losses will widen.
``In the first half of this week, the financial uncertainty of the financial system peaked out'' weighing on bonds, said Koji Shimamoto, chief strategist at BNP Paribas Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo and the top-rated debt analyst in Japan according to Nikkei Veritas. The bond ``market corresponds to the other market and in this case it's the equity market.''
The yield on the 1.3 percent note due June 2013 rose 2.5 basis points this week to 1.14 percent in Tokyo at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest interdealer debt broker. The price fell 0.119 yen to 100.741 yen. The yield reached as high as 1.22 percent on July 24. Ten-year yields were unchanged at 1.57 percent on the week. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
The Nikkei 225 advanced 4.2 percent this week, the biggest weekly rally since Feb. 15. Crude oil futures fell by about 2 percent this week to $125.84 a barrel.
Japan's bonds often move in the opposite direction to stocks. Benchmark 10-year yields had a correlation of 0.78 with the Nikkei 225 in the past three weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A value of 1 would mean the two moved in lockstep.
Fannie, Freddie
Ten-year bonds fell for three straight days this week after U.S. lawmakers approved a bill that gives Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson authority to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and provides for a federal agency to insure up to $300 billion of refinanced home loans for struggling owners.
The demand for bonds was limited this week on speculation the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates on hold amid signs the global economy is slowing. Five-year yields lost 7.5 basis points to 1.14 percent yesterday.
``There is a possibility that Japan's economy will slip into a light recession,'' Bank of Japan board member Atsushi Mizuno said on July 24 at a news conference.
Japan's exports fell for the first time in more than four years as demand for cars and electronics cooled, the Finance Ministry said on July 24.
The Ifo institute's German business confidence index slipped by the most since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, a report showed on July 24. The National Association of Realtors said U.S. home resales dropped to a decade low.
Growth Priority
The BOJ's ``priority is given to growth,'' said Alessio Caldarera, a fixed-income strategist at BNP Paribas Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. ``As corporate profits are still being squeezed, there isn't going to be a chance for the BOJ to hike in reaction to the higher CPI.''
There is an 18 percent chance the central bank will raise its target rate to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent by Dec. 31, according to calculations by JPMorgan Chase & Co. using overnight interest-rate swaps. The odds were as high as 92 percent on June 11.
The drop in bonds was also driven by concern accelerating inflation will erode the value of the fixed interest debt pays.
Accelerating Inflation
Consumer prices that exclude fresh food rose 1.9 percent in June from a year earlier after climbing 1.5 percent in May, the statistics bureau said yesterday in Tokyo.
The inflation rate exceeded the benchmark 10-year yield for the first time since 1998. Ten-year yields are 33 basis points lower than the index, compared with last year's average of 170 basis points above, Bloomberg data show.
``This could be a turning point for investors and they will think that higher prices are bad for economic growth,'' said Takashi Nishimura, an analyst in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co., a unit of the nation's largest bank by market value. ``This is the same thing as what happened in 1998, when the government introduced higher consumption tax, but this time its simply that Japanese consumer are losing purchasing power to the overseas.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Theresa Barraclough in Tokyo at tbarraclough@bloomberg.net.
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Saturday, July 26, 2008
Asia Stocks Rise Most in Two Months; Bank Losses Cap Gains
By Richard Frost and Shani Raja
July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks climbed the most in two months this week as commodities prices fell. Gains were capped after National Australia Bank Ltd. said credit losses may surge and Samsung Electronic Ltd.'s profit missed estimates.
Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. rose as oil dropped for a second week. Bridgestone Corp., the world's largest tiremaker by sales, surged the most since March after rubber traded near a seven-week low. National Australia, the country's biggest bank, and Australian & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. plunged yesterday by the most since the October 1987 stock market crash. Samsung, Asia's largest maker of flat screens, tumbled in Seoul.
``Volatility is high; one day investors feel good and the next day you get a writedown,'' said Nader Naeimi, a Sydney- based senior investment strategist at AMP Capital investors, which manages about $108 billion. ``There's a lack of trust.''
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 3.0 percent to 132.98, the biggest weekly advance since the five days to May 16. Nine of the index's 10 industry groups climbed this week, except for energy shares.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 4.2 percent, snapping a six-week losing streak. Japan was shut on July 21 for a holiday. All other Asian benchmark indexes rose.
MSCI's Asian index rallied 5.9 percent in the first four days of the week, after closing the previous week at its lowest level since October 2006, as concerns eased that bank losses will expand and oil tumbled from a record. The gauge fell 2.5 percent yesterday, the most in six weeks, on renewed speculation losses tied to U.S. mortgages will widen after a report showed sales of previously owned homes slipped to the lowest level in a decade.
Bear Market
The benchmark index is down 15 percent this year, part of a rout that has erased more than $13 trillion from equities worldwide since October as accelerating inflation and $468 billion in writedowns and credit-related losses threaten to push the U.S. into recession.
Except for Canada, all of the 23 developed markets in the MSCI World index experienced bear market plunges of at least 20 percent this year.
Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong's biggest airline, gained 2.4 percent to HK$15.50, capping a three-week, 11 percent advance. China Southern Airlines Co., the nation's largest carrier, jumped 13 percent to HK$3.60, its biggest advance since the five days to April 25.
Oil prices declined 4.4 percent this week, after dropping as much as 16 percent below its July 11 record of $147.27, on signs of falling demand in the U.S.
Oil Producers
Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia's second-largest oil and gas producer, fell 5.9 percent to A$52.21, capping a 22 percent, four-week slump. The stock is still up 3.6 percent for the year, compared with a 22 percent decline on Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index.
Inpex Holdings Inc., the biggest Japanese oil explorer, dropped 6.6 percent to 1.056 million yen.
A measure of energy stocks has lost 9.2 percent this month, the most among the 10 industry groups, as the stronger U.S. dollar limited the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation and high prices cut fuel consumption.
Bridgestone gained 6 percent to 1,809 yen, the biggest advance in four months, while Yokohama Rubber Co., Japan's second-largest tiremaker, added 9.2 percent to 519 yen, the most since April 2004, after natural rubber futures in Tokyo dropped to the lowest in seven weeks on July 24. JSR Corp., a maker of synthetic rubber, gained 4.6 percent to 1,922 yen, after saying profit increased on higher product prices.
Credit Losses
National Australia dropped 1.7 percent to A$26.56, after slumping 13 percent yesterday. The Melbourne-based company said it has set aside funds amounting to 90 percent of the value of its A$1.2 billion ($1.1 billion) of collateralized debt obligations. National Australia took a A$181 million provision in March.
Australia & New Zealand Banking, which increased bad-debt provisions by 71 percent in April, lost 2.5 percent to A$17.75, after plunging 8.7 percent yesterday.
Concern that banks may report wider credit-market losses led to a 4 percent decline in Asian financial shares yesterday. Bank stocks advanced 9 percent in the previous four days after Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported results that topped analyst estimates and Deutsche Bank AG said financial companies are overcoming credit losses.
Samsung lost 1 percent to 576,000 won. The stock tumbled 6.2 percent yesterday, the most since June 2004, after net income in the second quarter climbed 51 percent to 2.14 trillion won ($2.1 billion), missing the 2.36 trillion won median estimate in a Bloomberg analyst survey. Profit from chips unexpectedly fell and losses at the consumer electronics division more than doubled.
To contact the reporters for this story: Richard Frost in Hong Kong at rfrost4@bloomberg.net; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.
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July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks climbed the most in two months this week as commodities prices fell. Gains were capped after National Australia Bank Ltd. said credit losses may surge and Samsung Electronic Ltd.'s profit missed estimates.
Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. rose as oil dropped for a second week. Bridgestone Corp., the world's largest tiremaker by sales, surged the most since March after rubber traded near a seven-week low. National Australia, the country's biggest bank, and Australian & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. plunged yesterday by the most since the October 1987 stock market crash. Samsung, Asia's largest maker of flat screens, tumbled in Seoul.
``Volatility is high; one day investors feel good and the next day you get a writedown,'' said Nader Naeimi, a Sydney- based senior investment strategist at AMP Capital investors, which manages about $108 billion. ``There's a lack of trust.''
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 3.0 percent to 132.98, the biggest weekly advance since the five days to May 16. Nine of the index's 10 industry groups climbed this week, except for energy shares.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 4.2 percent, snapping a six-week losing streak. Japan was shut on July 21 for a holiday. All other Asian benchmark indexes rose.
MSCI's Asian index rallied 5.9 percent in the first four days of the week, after closing the previous week at its lowest level since October 2006, as concerns eased that bank losses will expand and oil tumbled from a record. The gauge fell 2.5 percent yesterday, the most in six weeks, on renewed speculation losses tied to U.S. mortgages will widen after a report showed sales of previously owned homes slipped to the lowest level in a decade.
Bear Market
The benchmark index is down 15 percent this year, part of a rout that has erased more than $13 trillion from equities worldwide since October as accelerating inflation and $468 billion in writedowns and credit-related losses threaten to push the U.S. into recession.
Except for Canada, all of the 23 developed markets in the MSCI World index experienced bear market plunges of at least 20 percent this year.
Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong's biggest airline, gained 2.4 percent to HK$15.50, capping a three-week, 11 percent advance. China Southern Airlines Co., the nation's largest carrier, jumped 13 percent to HK$3.60, its biggest advance since the five days to April 25.
Oil prices declined 4.4 percent this week, after dropping as much as 16 percent below its July 11 record of $147.27, on signs of falling demand in the U.S.
Oil Producers
Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia's second-largest oil and gas producer, fell 5.9 percent to A$52.21, capping a 22 percent, four-week slump. The stock is still up 3.6 percent for the year, compared with a 22 percent decline on Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index.
Inpex Holdings Inc., the biggest Japanese oil explorer, dropped 6.6 percent to 1.056 million yen.
A measure of energy stocks has lost 9.2 percent this month, the most among the 10 industry groups, as the stronger U.S. dollar limited the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation and high prices cut fuel consumption.
Bridgestone gained 6 percent to 1,809 yen, the biggest advance in four months, while Yokohama Rubber Co., Japan's second-largest tiremaker, added 9.2 percent to 519 yen, the most since April 2004, after natural rubber futures in Tokyo dropped to the lowest in seven weeks on July 24. JSR Corp., a maker of synthetic rubber, gained 4.6 percent to 1,922 yen, after saying profit increased on higher product prices.
Credit Losses
National Australia dropped 1.7 percent to A$26.56, after slumping 13 percent yesterday. The Melbourne-based company said it has set aside funds amounting to 90 percent of the value of its A$1.2 billion ($1.1 billion) of collateralized debt obligations. National Australia took a A$181 million provision in March.
Australia & New Zealand Banking, which increased bad-debt provisions by 71 percent in April, lost 2.5 percent to A$17.75, after plunging 8.7 percent yesterday.
Concern that banks may report wider credit-market losses led to a 4 percent decline in Asian financial shares yesterday. Bank stocks advanced 9 percent in the previous four days after Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported results that topped analyst estimates and Deutsche Bank AG said financial companies are overcoming credit losses.
Samsung lost 1 percent to 576,000 won. The stock tumbled 6.2 percent yesterday, the most since June 2004, after net income in the second quarter climbed 51 percent to 2.14 trillion won ($2.1 billion), missing the 2.36 trillion won median estimate in a Bloomberg analyst survey. Profit from chips unexpectedly fell and losses at the consumer electronics division more than doubled.
To contact the reporters for this story: Richard Frost in Hong Kong at rfrost4@bloomberg.net; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.
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Malaysia Bucks Asian Trend of Raising Rates; Focuses on Growth
By Stephanie Phang
July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's central bank broke with its Asian neighbors by keeping interest rates unchanged, putting economic growth ahead of fighting the fastest inflation in a quarter century.
Bank Negara Malaysia kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.5 percent for an 18th straight meeting yesterday. The move had been predicted by seven of the 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The decision spurred traders to bet the ringgit will weaken over the next 12 months. Malaysia has avoided following Thailand, Indonesia, India, Vietnam and the Philippines in raising borrowing costs this year as the government tries to regain public support after its worst electoral performance in March elections.
``It's a highly risky decision, a decision which could well undermine the credibility of the central bank,'' said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Singapore. ``I think the ringgit will sell off, I think bonds will sell off. They've lost credibility in not moving. That will be reflected in the markets.''
Malaysia's currency dropped to its lowest level in more than two weeks yesterday, losing 0.2 percent for the week to 3.2490 per dollar, Bloomberg data showed.
Ringgit to Weaken
Traders abandoned expectations for an appreciation in the ringgit, non-deliverable forwards contracts showed after yesterday's decision. They bet the ringgit will drop to 3.2515 per dollar in a year, versus a bet for an advance to 3.2310 before the policy decision, according to prices by Tullett Prebon Plc. The contracts are agreements in which assets are bought and sold at current prices for future delivery.
``While both the risks to higher inflation and the risks to slower growth have increased, the immediate concern is to avoid a fundamental economic slowdown,'' the central bank said in a statement in Kuala Lumpur. ``The appropriate monetary policy response will be taken'' should price increases spread beyond food and fuel.
Bank Negara yesterday raised its inflation forecast for 2008 for a second time this year, to a range of 5.5 percent to 6 percent from a June estimate of 4.2 percent and a March prediction of as much as 3 percent. The rate decision was two hours late.
It didn't say if it had revised its March forecast for a 5 percent to 6 percent expansion in the $151 billion economy. Growth was 6.3 percent in 2007. Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz had said earlier the central bank would review the economic growth target yesterday.
`Behind the Curve'
Malaysia's delay in raising borrowing costs risks fueling inflation further, says Lye Thim Loong, who helps oversee about $500 million at Avenue Invest Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur.
``They will really be behind the curve,'' he said. ``At the end of this year they will have wage pressure, and the impact on the economy is far-reaching. They have to do something to cool it off a bit.''
Concerns that inflation will hurt growth and erode investors' returns have added to a slump in Southeast Asia's stocks and bonds. Philippine and Indonesian bonds have lost the most this year among 10 Asian markets tracked by an HSBC Holdings Plc index. Vietnam's key stock index is the world's worst performer in 2008.
Asian central banks need ``decisive tightening'' of monetary policies to combat inflation, and many are too slow to raise borrowing costs, the Asian Development Bank said this week. The Philippine central bank said it is considering further rate increases after successive moves in June and July.
U.S. Slowdown
Still, higher interest rates may cool domestic demand, which the government is relying on for growth as a U.S. slowdown hurts overseas sales.
Malaysia has tried to ease inflation through other measures, including increasing spending on agriculture to boost food supply and loosening import restrictions on steel. Oil has declined 14 percent since reaching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.
Inflation accelerated to 7.7 percent last month after Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 41 percent increase in retail gasoline prices in a bid to trim government subsidies that keep pump costs artificially low. Diesel went up 63 percent, and electricity rates rose in July.
``Much of the jump in inflation of late has been due to rising food and energy costs,'' said Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin, an economist at Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. ``If the current runaway inflation is expected to be a transient phenomenon without causing a generalized rise in prices, then raising rates doesn't appear to be an appropriate answer.''
The central bank's overnight policy rate is at the highest since its introduction in April 2004, and, together with Hong Kong's and Thailand's, is the second lowest in Asia according to Bloomberg data.
To contact the reporter on this story: Stephanie Phang in Singapore at sphang@bloomberg.net
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July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's central bank broke with its Asian neighbors by keeping interest rates unchanged, putting economic growth ahead of fighting the fastest inflation in a quarter century.
Bank Negara Malaysia kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.5 percent for an 18th straight meeting yesterday. The move had been predicted by seven of the 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The decision spurred traders to bet the ringgit will weaken over the next 12 months. Malaysia has avoided following Thailand, Indonesia, India, Vietnam and the Philippines in raising borrowing costs this year as the government tries to regain public support after its worst electoral performance in March elections.
``It's a highly risky decision, a decision which could well undermine the credibility of the central bank,'' said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Singapore. ``I think the ringgit will sell off, I think bonds will sell off. They've lost credibility in not moving. That will be reflected in the markets.''
Malaysia's currency dropped to its lowest level in more than two weeks yesterday, losing 0.2 percent for the week to 3.2490 per dollar, Bloomberg data showed.
Ringgit to Weaken
Traders abandoned expectations for an appreciation in the ringgit, non-deliverable forwards contracts showed after yesterday's decision. They bet the ringgit will drop to 3.2515 per dollar in a year, versus a bet for an advance to 3.2310 before the policy decision, according to prices by Tullett Prebon Plc. The contracts are agreements in which assets are bought and sold at current prices for future delivery.
``While both the risks to higher inflation and the risks to slower growth have increased, the immediate concern is to avoid a fundamental economic slowdown,'' the central bank said in a statement in Kuala Lumpur. ``The appropriate monetary policy response will be taken'' should price increases spread beyond food and fuel.
Bank Negara yesterday raised its inflation forecast for 2008 for a second time this year, to a range of 5.5 percent to 6 percent from a June estimate of 4.2 percent and a March prediction of as much as 3 percent. The rate decision was two hours late.
It didn't say if it had revised its March forecast for a 5 percent to 6 percent expansion in the $151 billion economy. Growth was 6.3 percent in 2007. Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz had said earlier the central bank would review the economic growth target yesterday.
`Behind the Curve'
Malaysia's delay in raising borrowing costs risks fueling inflation further, says Lye Thim Loong, who helps oversee about $500 million at Avenue Invest Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur.
``They will really be behind the curve,'' he said. ``At the end of this year they will have wage pressure, and the impact on the economy is far-reaching. They have to do something to cool it off a bit.''
Concerns that inflation will hurt growth and erode investors' returns have added to a slump in Southeast Asia's stocks and bonds. Philippine and Indonesian bonds have lost the most this year among 10 Asian markets tracked by an HSBC Holdings Plc index. Vietnam's key stock index is the world's worst performer in 2008.
Asian central banks need ``decisive tightening'' of monetary policies to combat inflation, and many are too slow to raise borrowing costs, the Asian Development Bank said this week. The Philippine central bank said it is considering further rate increases after successive moves in June and July.
U.S. Slowdown
Still, higher interest rates may cool domestic demand, which the government is relying on for growth as a U.S. slowdown hurts overseas sales.
Malaysia has tried to ease inflation through other measures, including increasing spending on agriculture to boost food supply and loosening import restrictions on steel. Oil has declined 14 percent since reaching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.
Inflation accelerated to 7.7 percent last month after Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 41 percent increase in retail gasoline prices in a bid to trim government subsidies that keep pump costs artificially low. Diesel went up 63 percent, and electricity rates rose in July.
``Much of the jump in inflation of late has been due to rising food and energy costs,'' said Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin, an economist at Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. ``If the current runaway inflation is expected to be a transient phenomenon without causing a generalized rise in prices, then raising rates doesn't appear to be an appropriate answer.''
The central bank's overnight policy rate is at the highest since its introduction in April 2004, and, together with Hong Kong's and Thailand's, is the second lowest in Asia according to Bloomberg data.
To contact the reporter on this story: Stephanie Phang in Singapore at sphang@bloomberg.net
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Asian Currencies: Indian Rupee, Peso Lead Weekly Gain on Oil
By Lilian Karunungan and Anoop Agrawal
July 26 (Bloomberg) -- The Indian rupee and the Philippine peso led a weekly advance among Asian currencies on speculation oil prices near the lowest in seven weeks will reduce demand for dollars from importers.
The rupee posted its best week in four months as exporters may have converted overseas earnings to guard against further currency gains. A stronger rupee erodes revenue from overseas shipments in local-currency terms. Crude oil in New York declined for a third week, helping lower India's import costs.
``The oil slump has been instrumental in subduing dollar demand,'' said P.V. Rao, a currency trader at IndusInd Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. ``Sentiment for the rupee is strengthening and gauging that, exporters are also probably reducing their dollar receivables.''
The rupee gained 1.2 percent this week to 42.265 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It may strengthen to 42.10 next week, Rao said. The Philippine peso rose 0.9 percent from last week to 44.07 in Manila, according to Tullett Prebon Plc.
The Indian currency rallied 1.5 percent on July 23, the biggest gain in more than a decade, on speculation the government will allow more overseas investment in the financial industry after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh survived a confidence vote in parliament the previous day.
Crude oil futures touched $123.50 a barrel on July 24, a seven-week low, down 16 percent from their all-time high of $147.27, Bloomberg data show.
Monthly Gain
The peso was poised for its first monthly gain since February, buoyed by cheaper oil and speculation the central bank will raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.
The currency jumped 1.3 percent on July 23, the most in almost seven years, after Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco said higher borrowing costs ``cannot be ruled out.'' The bank last week raised its benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point, sparking the peso's first weekly gain in three months.
``The Bangko Sentral has been a little bit aggressive in hiking rates, surprising the market,'' said Ed Garcia, a currency trader at East West Banking Corp. in Manila. ``This week, they've been in the news, saying more aggressive rate hikes are on the table.''
Oil's Decline
Crude oil's decline also helped the peso gain, according to Garcia and Lito Biacora, vice president for treasury at Bank of the Philippine Islands in Manila.
``The easing pressure on inflation in relation to lower crude prices seems to provide reason for funds to shift to higher-yielding assets,'' Biacora said.
South Korea's won advanced this week on speculation the government bought the currency to help contain inflation.
The won has gained 3.8 percent this month, the best performance among the 16 most-active major currencies as Vice Finance Minister Kim Dong Soo said July 24 that the government will monitor for ``herd behavior'' in the foreign-exchange market. A central bank report yesterday showed the economy maintained its growth in the second quarter as export gains made up for shrinking consumer spending.
``Market players are worried about strong interventions,'' said Jeff Kim, a currency dealer at Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. ``The government is keen to keep the won stable.''
The won climbed 0.5 percent this week to 1,009.20 in Seoul, from 1,013.80 last week, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. It dropped 0.2 percent yesterday.
Immediate Concern
Malaysia's ringgit snapped a two-week advance as the central bank unexpectedly refrained from increasing interest rates yesterday. ``The immediate concern is to avoid a fundamental economic slowdown,'' Bank Negara Malaysia said in a statement.
Policy makers have kept the benchmark rate on hold at 3.5 percent since April 2006. The currency traded near the lowest level in two weeks after a U.S. report showed home sales fell to the least in 10 years.
The ringgit dropped 0.3 percent this week to 3.25, Bloomberg data showed.
``If you don't hike rates, the ringgit could hit 3.28 or beyond,'' Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, a currency strategist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, said before the decision.
Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar fell 0.4 percent this week to S$1.3588 against the U.S. currency. The Taiwan dollar dropped 0.2 percent to NT$30.407 and the Thai baht declined 0.3 percent to 33.42 per dollar. Vietnam's dong was unchanged at 16,795 versus a week ago.
To contact the reporters on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net; Anoop Agrawal in Mumbai at aagrawal8@bloomberg.net.
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July 26 (Bloomberg) -- The Indian rupee and the Philippine peso led a weekly advance among Asian currencies on speculation oil prices near the lowest in seven weeks will reduce demand for dollars from importers.
The rupee posted its best week in four months as exporters may have converted overseas earnings to guard against further currency gains. A stronger rupee erodes revenue from overseas shipments in local-currency terms. Crude oil in New York declined for a third week, helping lower India's import costs.
``The oil slump has been instrumental in subduing dollar demand,'' said P.V. Rao, a currency trader at IndusInd Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. ``Sentiment for the rupee is strengthening and gauging that, exporters are also probably reducing their dollar receivables.''
The rupee gained 1.2 percent this week to 42.265 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It may strengthen to 42.10 next week, Rao said. The Philippine peso rose 0.9 percent from last week to 44.07 in Manila, according to Tullett Prebon Plc.
The Indian currency rallied 1.5 percent on July 23, the biggest gain in more than a decade, on speculation the government will allow more overseas investment in the financial industry after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh survived a confidence vote in parliament the previous day.
Crude oil futures touched $123.50 a barrel on July 24, a seven-week low, down 16 percent from their all-time high of $147.27, Bloomberg data show.
Monthly Gain
The peso was poised for its first monthly gain since February, buoyed by cheaper oil and speculation the central bank will raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.
The currency jumped 1.3 percent on July 23, the most in almost seven years, after Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco said higher borrowing costs ``cannot be ruled out.'' The bank last week raised its benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point, sparking the peso's first weekly gain in three months.
``The Bangko Sentral has been a little bit aggressive in hiking rates, surprising the market,'' said Ed Garcia, a currency trader at East West Banking Corp. in Manila. ``This week, they've been in the news, saying more aggressive rate hikes are on the table.''
Oil's Decline
Crude oil's decline also helped the peso gain, according to Garcia and Lito Biacora, vice president for treasury at Bank of the Philippine Islands in Manila.
``The easing pressure on inflation in relation to lower crude prices seems to provide reason for funds to shift to higher-yielding assets,'' Biacora said.
South Korea's won advanced this week on speculation the government bought the currency to help contain inflation.
The won has gained 3.8 percent this month, the best performance among the 16 most-active major currencies as Vice Finance Minister Kim Dong Soo said July 24 that the government will monitor for ``herd behavior'' in the foreign-exchange market. A central bank report yesterday showed the economy maintained its growth in the second quarter as export gains made up for shrinking consumer spending.
``Market players are worried about strong interventions,'' said Jeff Kim, a currency dealer at Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. ``The government is keen to keep the won stable.''
The won climbed 0.5 percent this week to 1,009.20 in Seoul, from 1,013.80 last week, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. It dropped 0.2 percent yesterday.
Immediate Concern
Malaysia's ringgit snapped a two-week advance as the central bank unexpectedly refrained from increasing interest rates yesterday. ``The immediate concern is to avoid a fundamental economic slowdown,'' Bank Negara Malaysia said in a statement.
Policy makers have kept the benchmark rate on hold at 3.5 percent since April 2006. The currency traded near the lowest level in two weeks after a U.S. report showed home sales fell to the least in 10 years.
The ringgit dropped 0.3 percent this week to 3.25, Bloomberg data showed.
``If you don't hike rates, the ringgit could hit 3.28 or beyond,'' Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, a currency strategist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, said before the decision.
Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar fell 0.4 percent this week to S$1.3588 against the U.S. currency. The Taiwan dollar dropped 0.2 percent to NT$30.407 and the Thai baht declined 0.3 percent to 33.42 per dollar. Vietnam's dong was unchanged at 16,795 versus a week ago.
To contact the reporters on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net; Anoop Agrawal in Mumbai at aagrawal8@bloomberg.net.
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Dollar Rallies on Strong Data, but Watch Out for a Big Week
| Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Jul 25 08 20:45 GMT | | |
Dollar Rallies on Strong Data, but Watch Out for a Big Week Stronger economic data has driven the US dollar higher against many of the major currencies. New home sales, consumer confidence and durable goods were all better than the market expected, a sign that the mood of US consumers and businesses may be changing. The number of new homes sold in the month of June was more than the market expected, but the big surprise was the 50,000 unit revision to the past 3 months of data and the reduction in inventory. The numbers indicate that there is still decent activity in the housing market and even though house prices are down on an annualized basis, the median price of a home sold has increased from the prior month. The final University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers also rebounded to a 3 month high after falling to a 28 year low in June while durable goods increased 0.8 percent compared to the market's -0.3 percent forecast. Today's economic releases were almost too good to be true and for that reason, we are cautiously bullish. With that said, it is quite impressive that the US dollar has shaken off risk aversion. The divergence between the price action of the US dollar, the stock market, gold and oil prices indicate that risk aversion yesterday was limited despite the 280 point drop in the Dow. If you recall, the dollar dropped only against the Japanese Yen, and rallied against all of the other G10 currencies. Looking ahead, consumer confidence and house prices are due for release on Tuesday. Given this week's upside surprises, both reports could be dollar bullish. However second quarter GDP, non-farm payrolls and manufacturing ISM which are due at the end of the week could turn things around for the dollar. There have been no end to the layoff announcements and not only do we believe that non-farm payrolls will drop for the seventh straight month, but the job losses could be far worse than the market's -75k forecast. The ECB Has Room to Raise Interest Rates?! The Euro strengthened against the US dollar but the rally has been marginal. Unsurprisingly, inflation last month was hot with import prices rising 1.5 percent in Germany. Despite the recent deterioration in Eurozone economic data, European Central Bank officials have been revving up their degree of hawkishness which leads many people to wonder whether the ECB is digging themselves into a hole. ECB member Liebscher said this morning that the central bank has room to raise interest rates and that it is absolutely necessary to prevent any possibilities of so-called second-round effects. Unlike the Federal Reserve who needs to worry about growth as much as inflation, targeting inflation is the ECB's primary focus. In order to get their attention, we may need to start seeing negative quarterly GDP growth. The central bank only worries about growth when it has fallen below potential. Recent economic data clearly indicates that the region is slowing and if oil prices remain at $125 a barrel, the ECB's concerns about inflation will start to ease, allowing them to become more sensitive to growth. In the week ahead, retail PMI and German unemployment are the big Eurozone releases. We expect this data to continue to be Euro bearish. Meanwhile Switzerland will be releasing the UBS Consumption Index and the KoF report of leading indicators. Is the UK Headed for a Recession? GDP growth slowed in the second quarter, but the British pound managed to rally. The pace of growth has fallen from an annualized rate of 2.3 to 1.6 percent, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2002 and equaling the 15 year low. Weak consumer spending has been the primary drag on the UK economy and given the recent trend of growth, the country could be headed for a recession which is defined by 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. The pace of deterioration in the UK economy has picked up towards the end of the second quarter which implies that unless there is a serious turnaround in the UK economy, the country could be headed for a contraction in the third quarter. We are bearish British pounds and expect the currency to underperform many of the major currencies. Aside from manufacturing PMI and some housing market data, the UK economic calendar is relatively light next week. Oil Prices Continue to Fall, Taking the Canadian Dollar Lower There was no economic data released from the 3 commodity producing countries today, leaving the price action of the currencies dependent upon oil prices. Crude continues to trend lower and ended the day at $123.39 a barrel. This has weighed heavily on the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars. Although oil and gold prices will continue to play a big role in the price action of the commodity currencies, there are a few pieces of key data worth watching next week. New Zealand and Australia both have trade data due for release, Australia also has retail sales while Canada will be releasing their GDP report for the month of May. Yen Crosses Rebound as Risk Appetite Stabilizes The Japanese Yen crosses rebounded today as the stock market and risk appetite stabilizes. Like the rest of the world, Japan has also been hit by inflationary pressures. The latest inflation data shows that core inflation has hit a 10 year high due to rising food and gasoline prices. This has been a huge drag on the Japanese economy and part of the reason why the trade surplus fell for the first time in 5 years last month. The deterioration in trade was significant with the surplus falling a whopping 89 percent in June. Japan is having a particularly tough time with slowing export demand and surging import prices, which is why the BoJ has turned bearish on the economy. There are a lot of Japanese economic data due next week including the jobless rate, retail sales and industrial production.
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Closing Market Recap: Treasuries Sell Off; Loonie Declines and TSX Rallies
Market Updates | Written by CEP News | Jul 25 08 21:13 GMT |
(CEP News) - A trio of better-than-expected U.S. economic data points on Friday boosted confidence and helped reverse Thursday's downtrodden sentiment. Treasuries sold off while U.S. equities are struggling to make gains. In Canada, the loonie fell nearly a half cent but resource stocks led the TSX higher.
U.S. two-year yields were up 9.7 bps to 2.70%, with five-year yields up 11.4 bps to 3.43%, 10-year yields up 9.8 bps to 4.09% and 30-year yields up 8.3 bps to 4.68%.
"The key drivers for the sell-off in North American bond markets earlier today were the surprisingly strong U.S. durable goods orders report and the better than expected print on U.S. new homes sales for June, though the surge in U.S. home foreclosures in Q2 rained somewhat on the parade," wrote Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities
The biggest surprise in the U.S. came from the June report on orders for durable goods. Orders for big ticket items were expected to decline 0.3% but climbed 0.8% instead. Excluding the volatile automotive component, orders were up 2.0% against the -0.2% consensus estimate.
Also in June, new home sales were better than forecast, rising from a 17-year low. Sentiment also climbed, as the Reuters/University of Michigan survey for July was revised nearly 5 points higher to 61.2.
There was also a downside surprise as U.S. home foreclosures increased 14% in the second quarter, according to a report issued by RealtyTrac.
According to TradeWeb, U.S. Treasury volume was only about 60% of normal.
In Canada, the federal government announced a $500 million deficit for April and May. Yet Canada's fixed income market still outperformed, despite the possibility of increased debt issuance.
Yields on two-year Canadian government bonds were up 1.4 bps to 3.15%, with five-year yields up 3.7 bps to 3.42%, 10-year yields up 4.6 bps to 3.84% and 30-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.16%. The Canadian 10-year note is yielding 25.5 bps less than the U.S. 10-year note.
At the Montreal Exchange, 3-month bankers' acceptance futures saw better-than-normal volume as 34,283 contract changed hands. The most active contract was for December where the yield moved up 3 basis points to 3.20%. Futures on the 10-year Government of Canada note traded at average volume with prices falling to 0.41 to 117.31.
While fixed income markets seemed to be surveying the broader economy, equities were reflecting the housing market, according to Larry Levin, president of Secrets of Traders.com.
"The housing woes are indeed the main problem of the equity markets. Because housing prices are going down, banks and investment banks are stuck with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bad loans. Because the housing prices are dropping, non-stop spending Americans have run out of what they thought was free money," Levin said.
U.S. equities hit session highs shortly after the report on home sales but the optimism was washed away when Standard & Poor's placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac subordinated debt and preferred shares on creditwatch for a possible downgrade.
"Both firms face weak earnings due to rising credit expenses. The creditwatch listing on the subordinated debt, preferred stock, and risk-to-the-government ratings underscores the expected higher stress on capital and earnings these firms face during the next several quarters," said S&P credit analysts in a report.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 21 points to 11,371, the S&P 500 up 5 points to 1,258 and the Nasdaq up 30 points to 2,311.
Sentiment was much better in Canada where resource stocks rebounded even as crude oil fell to a seven-week low. The oil price decline came after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased output by 200,000 barrels a day in July, according to estimates from PetroLogistics Ltd.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index closed up 173 points to 13,379. WTI crude oil closed down $2.23 to $123.26.
Although crude prices fell, technical analysts said the ability of the market to hold above $122 per barrel could pave the way for a rebound.
"But just how much can we draw from a drop in crude that still leaves it higher than at any point in history prior to May? Not much," wrote CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld in a note to clients.
In currency markets, the Canadian dollar spent much of the session unchanged but sold off following the deficit announcement from the federal government.
The loonie was down 0.0041 to 0.9813 against the U.S. dollar (1.0189 USD/CAD) and up 0.09 to 105.85 against the yen. On the week, the Canadian dollar fell 0.0127, or 1.3% USD.
The U.S. dollar was up 0.53 to 107.86 against the yen but the Dollar Index was down 0.077 to 72.856.
The euro was up 0.0026 to 1.5703 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.0090 to 1.6000 against the Canadian dollar, down 0.0006 to 0.7886 against the pound sterling and was higher by 1.09 to 169.37 against the yen.
The pound sterling finished the week up 0.0044 to 1.9913 against the U.S. dollar and up 0.0129 to 2.0292 against the Canadian dollar.
The front month gold contract at the Chicago Board of Trade is up $7.90 to $929.70 per ounce.
Overseas, European stock markets closed in negative territory with the Eurostoxx down 3 points to 2,857, the UK FTSE 100 down 10 points to 5353 and the German DAX down 4 points to 6,437.
In Germany, returns on two-year German bonds are down 0.9 bps to 4.42%, with five-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.53%, 10-year yields up 3.7 bps to 4.60% and 30-year yields up 4.5 bps to 4.87%.
Yields on UK two-year bonds are up 1.5 bps to 4.98%, with five-year yields up 0.9 bps to 4.95%, 10-year yields up 1.7 bps to 4.99% and 30-year yields up 1.7 bps to 4.62%.
In the week ahead, the focus will be on the United States. Advance GDP figures for the second quarter will be released Thursday and are expected to show the economy grew by a healthy rate of 2%. But economist warn that figure has been inflated by government rebate cheques. Afterwards the focus will turn to employment figures on Friday that are expected to show the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 5.6% from 5.5%.
All data taken at 4:39 p.m. EDT.
By Adam Button, abutton@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, cmarkham@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it
CEP Newswires - CEP News © 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.ca
The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News.
A copy of CEP News disclaimer can be found at http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/disclaimer.
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(CEP News) - A trio of better-than-expected U.S. economic data points on Friday boosted confidence and helped reverse Thursday's downtrodden sentiment. Treasuries sold off while U.S. equities are struggling to make gains. In Canada, the loonie fell nearly a half cent but resource stocks led the TSX higher.
U.S. two-year yields were up 9.7 bps to 2.70%, with five-year yields up 11.4 bps to 3.43%, 10-year yields up 9.8 bps to 4.09% and 30-year yields up 8.3 bps to 4.68%.
"The key drivers for the sell-off in North American bond markets earlier today were the surprisingly strong U.S. durable goods orders report and the better than expected print on U.S. new homes sales for June, though the surge in U.S. home foreclosures in Q2 rained somewhat on the parade," wrote Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities
The biggest surprise in the U.S. came from the June report on orders for durable goods. Orders for big ticket items were expected to decline 0.3% but climbed 0.8% instead. Excluding the volatile automotive component, orders were up 2.0% against the -0.2% consensus estimate.
Also in June, new home sales were better than forecast, rising from a 17-year low. Sentiment also climbed, as the Reuters/University of Michigan survey for July was revised nearly 5 points higher to 61.2.
There was also a downside surprise as U.S. home foreclosures increased 14% in the second quarter, according to a report issued by RealtyTrac.
According to TradeWeb, U.S. Treasury volume was only about 60% of normal.
In Canada, the federal government announced a $500 million deficit for April and May. Yet Canada's fixed income market still outperformed, despite the possibility of increased debt issuance.
Yields on two-year Canadian government bonds were up 1.4 bps to 3.15%, with five-year yields up 3.7 bps to 3.42%, 10-year yields up 4.6 bps to 3.84% and 30-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.16%. The Canadian 10-year note is yielding 25.5 bps less than the U.S. 10-year note.
At the Montreal Exchange, 3-month bankers' acceptance futures saw better-than-normal volume as 34,283 contract changed hands. The most active contract was for December where the yield moved up 3 basis points to 3.20%. Futures on the 10-year Government of Canada note traded at average volume with prices falling to 0.41 to 117.31.
While fixed income markets seemed to be surveying the broader economy, equities were reflecting the housing market, according to Larry Levin, president of Secrets of Traders.com.
"The housing woes are indeed the main problem of the equity markets. Because housing prices are going down, banks and investment banks are stuck with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bad loans. Because the housing prices are dropping, non-stop spending Americans have run out of what they thought was free money," Levin said.
U.S. equities hit session highs shortly after the report on home sales but the optimism was washed away when Standard & Poor's placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac subordinated debt and preferred shares on creditwatch for a possible downgrade.
"Both firms face weak earnings due to rising credit expenses. The creditwatch listing on the subordinated debt, preferred stock, and risk-to-the-government ratings underscores the expected higher stress on capital and earnings these firms face during the next several quarters," said S&P credit analysts in a report.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 21 points to 11,371, the S&P 500 up 5 points to 1,258 and the Nasdaq up 30 points to 2,311.
Sentiment was much better in Canada where resource stocks rebounded even as crude oil fell to a seven-week low. The oil price decline came after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased output by 200,000 barrels a day in July, according to estimates from PetroLogistics Ltd.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index closed up 173 points to 13,379. WTI crude oil closed down $2.23 to $123.26.
Although crude prices fell, technical analysts said the ability of the market to hold above $122 per barrel could pave the way for a rebound.
"But just how much can we draw from a drop in crude that still leaves it higher than at any point in history prior to May? Not much," wrote CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld in a note to clients.
In currency markets, the Canadian dollar spent much of the session unchanged but sold off following the deficit announcement from the federal government.
The loonie was down 0.0041 to 0.9813 against the U.S. dollar (1.0189 USD/CAD) and up 0.09 to 105.85 against the yen. On the week, the Canadian dollar fell 0.0127, or 1.3% USD.
The U.S. dollar was up 0.53 to 107.86 against the yen but the Dollar Index was down 0.077 to 72.856.
The euro was up 0.0026 to 1.5703 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.0090 to 1.6000 against the Canadian dollar, down 0.0006 to 0.7886 against the pound sterling and was higher by 1.09 to 169.37 against the yen.
The pound sterling finished the week up 0.0044 to 1.9913 against the U.S. dollar and up 0.0129 to 2.0292 against the Canadian dollar.
The front month gold contract at the Chicago Board of Trade is up $7.90 to $929.70 per ounce.
Overseas, European stock markets closed in negative territory with the Eurostoxx down 3 points to 2,857, the UK FTSE 100 down 10 points to 5353 and the German DAX down 4 points to 6,437.
In Germany, returns on two-year German bonds are down 0.9 bps to 4.42%, with five-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.53%, 10-year yields up 3.7 bps to 4.60% and 30-year yields up 4.5 bps to 4.87%.
Yields on UK two-year bonds are up 1.5 bps to 4.98%, with five-year yields up 0.9 bps to 4.95%, 10-year yields up 1.7 bps to 4.99% and 30-year yields up 1.7 bps to 4.62%.
In the week ahead, the focus will be on the United States. Advance GDP figures for the second quarter will be released Thursday and are expected to show the economy grew by a healthy rate of 2%. But economist warn that figure has been inflated by government rebate cheques. Afterwards the focus will turn to employment figures on Friday that are expected to show the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 5.6% from 5.5%.
All data taken at 4:39 p.m. EDT.
By Adam Button, abutton@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, cmarkham@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it
CEP Newswires - CEP News © 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.ca
The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News.
A copy of CEP News disclaimer can be found at http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/disclaimer.
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Friday's News Recap: Optimism Returns Following U.S. Housing, Durable Goods Data
News Recap | Written by CEP News | Jul 25 08 20:52 GMT |
(CEP News) - In contrast to Thursday's downbeat releases, markets received largely positive U.S. economic data on Friday in the form of higher-than-expected home sales in June, an upside revision in the final July consumer sentiment survey from Reuters and University of Michigan and a higher-than-expected increase in durable goods sales.
New home sales came in higher than expected at 530k in June against forecasts for a 503k reading, though due to revisions in the previous month the figure represents a slight decline of 3k, or 0.6%. May sales were revised up to 533k from an initially-reported 512k, the U.S. Census Bureau reported. April's new home sales were also revised up to 542k from a previously reported 525k. The median sale price of new houses sold in June was $230,900, up from May's revised median of $227,700.
Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the report "paints a brighter picture (than previously portrayed), in the new housing market anyway." Yet he cautioned against being too optimistic, as things are still getting worse but only at a slower decline than in the past two years. He said sales in both existing and new home sales appear to be stabilizing, but there's no sign yet of an actual pick-up or recovery.
U.S. durable goods excluding transportation soared by 2.0% in June in the U.S. durable goods report released Friday by the Department of Commerce. Economists, who were expecting a 0.2% monthly decline following May's upwardly revised 0.5% decline, say the unexpected jump suggests the business sector remains stable despite the broader financial turmoil, thanks in part to foreign demand from a weak U.S. dollar.
Senior rates and economics strategist Eric Lascelles from TD Securities said the release was a "real surprise to the upside," but that the U.S. business sector is not where to look to note the economic slowdown.
The final consumer sentiment survey from Reuters and the University of Michigan received a large upward revision from preliminary estimates in July, with the headline indicator coming in at 61.2 compared to the preliminary 56.6 level.
Economists had expected a small revision to 56.4. The last time the survey reached 61.2 was in May 2008. Consumer expectations were revised to 53.5 from the preliminary 48.3 level, while the current conditions index bumped up to 73.1 from the initial estimate of 69.5 for July.
On the down side, however, U.S. home foreclosures soared by 121% in second-quarter year-over-year results, according to a report issued by RealtyTrac. There were 739,714 foreclosure filings in the second quarter of 2008, a 14% quarterly increase. According to RealtyTrac, 48 of 50 states and 95 of 100 of the largest metropolitan areas experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in the second quarter.
The Canadian government reported a $500 million deficit in the first two months of the 2008-09 fiscal year, due to shrinking revenues and rising expenses. The budget shortfall was smaller than the March deficit of $1.2 billion, but a reversal from April and May of 2007, when the government reported a $2.8 billion budgetary surplus for the two months.
The federal fiscal monitor released Friday by the Department of Finance showed that the government eked out a $300 million surplus in May, but that wasn't enough to offset April's $900 million shortfall.
Speaking to reporters in Toronto, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said the Canadian economy and budget were "on track" in anticipation of the finance ministry's fiscal update in October. The finance minister added that he agreed with the Bank of Canada's assessment that the risks to the economy were balanced.
Air Canada must form a joint committee with its workers to look at ways to minimize the impact of planned layoffs, Canada's Federal Labour Minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn said Friday. Blackburn refused to grant the airline a waiver from the group termination provisions of the Canada Labour Code. In June, Air Canada announced its plans to cut 2,000 jobs in a bid to save money in the face of rising fuel costs. The group termination provisions under the labour code require that an employer that intends to dismiss 50 or more employees in any single industrial establishment within a four-week period give notice to the Minister of Labour, union representatives and non-unionized employees at least 16 weeks before the termination date.
In overnight news, according to advance estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy grew 1.6% year-over-year as expected in the second quarter of 2008, down from the 2.3% growth rate seen in the previous quarter. In quarterly terms, UK GDP increased 0.2%, also in line with expectations, after rising 0.3% in Q1.
German import prices rose 8.9% year-over-year in June, the strongest rate since November 2000, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis). Economists had expected an increase of 8.4%, up from May's 7.9% rise. Month-over-month, German import price inflation cooled somewhat to 1.5%, down from the 2.4% rate observed in the previous month.
In an interview from his office in Vienna, Austria on July 24, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher said that he was not surprised by the recent data pointing to deteriorating activity levels in the euro zone and stressed that the ECB still has room to maneuver regarding interest rates. "We expected a weaker second and maybe third quarter," he said.
According to data released by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on Friday, inflation in Japan rose slightly faster than expected in June, but nevertheless sharply from the previous month, with headline CPI rising 2.0% year-over-year in June, just higher than estimates for a 1.9% increase and above May's 1.3% gain.
By Stephen Huebl, shuebl@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , with contributions from Patrick McGee, pmcgee@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , Steve Stecyk, sstecyk@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , Geoff Matthews, gmatthews@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , Erik Kevin Franco, efranco@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it and Todd Wailoo, twailoo@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, cmarkham@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it
CEP Newswires - CEP News © 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.ca
The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News.
A copy of CEP News disclaimer can be found at http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/disclaimer.
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(CEP News) - In contrast to Thursday's downbeat releases, markets received largely positive U.S. economic data on Friday in the form of higher-than-expected home sales in June, an upside revision in the final July consumer sentiment survey from Reuters and University of Michigan and a higher-than-expected increase in durable goods sales.
New home sales came in higher than expected at 530k in June against forecasts for a 503k reading, though due to revisions in the previous month the figure represents a slight decline of 3k, or 0.6%. May sales were revised up to 533k from an initially-reported 512k, the U.S. Census Bureau reported. April's new home sales were also revised up to 542k from a previously reported 525k. The median sale price of new houses sold in June was $230,900, up from May's revised median of $227,700.
Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the report "paints a brighter picture (than previously portrayed), in the new housing market anyway." Yet he cautioned against being too optimistic, as things are still getting worse but only at a slower decline than in the past two years. He said sales in both existing and new home sales appear to be stabilizing, but there's no sign yet of an actual pick-up or recovery.
U.S. durable goods excluding transportation soared by 2.0% in June in the U.S. durable goods report released Friday by the Department of Commerce. Economists, who were expecting a 0.2% monthly decline following May's upwardly revised 0.5% decline, say the unexpected jump suggests the business sector remains stable despite the broader financial turmoil, thanks in part to foreign demand from a weak U.S. dollar.
Senior rates and economics strategist Eric Lascelles from TD Securities said the release was a "real surprise to the upside," but that the U.S. business sector is not where to look to note the economic slowdown.
The final consumer sentiment survey from Reuters and the University of Michigan received a large upward revision from preliminary estimates in July, with the headline indicator coming in at 61.2 compared to the preliminary 56.6 level.
Economists had expected a small revision to 56.4. The last time the survey reached 61.2 was in May 2008. Consumer expectations were revised to 53.5 from the preliminary 48.3 level, while the current conditions index bumped up to 73.1 from the initial estimate of 69.5 for July.
On the down side, however, U.S. home foreclosures soared by 121% in second-quarter year-over-year results, according to a report issued by RealtyTrac. There were 739,714 foreclosure filings in the second quarter of 2008, a 14% quarterly increase. According to RealtyTrac, 48 of 50 states and 95 of 100 of the largest metropolitan areas experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in the second quarter.
The Canadian government reported a $500 million deficit in the first two months of the 2008-09 fiscal year, due to shrinking revenues and rising expenses. The budget shortfall was smaller than the March deficit of $1.2 billion, but a reversal from April and May of 2007, when the government reported a $2.8 billion budgetary surplus for the two months.
The federal fiscal monitor released Friday by the Department of Finance showed that the government eked out a $300 million surplus in May, but that wasn't enough to offset April's $900 million shortfall.
Speaking to reporters in Toronto, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said the Canadian economy and budget were "on track" in anticipation of the finance ministry's fiscal update in October. The finance minister added that he agreed with the Bank of Canada's assessment that the risks to the economy were balanced.
Air Canada must form a joint committee with its workers to look at ways to minimize the impact of planned layoffs, Canada's Federal Labour Minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn said Friday. Blackburn refused to grant the airline a waiver from the group termination provisions of the Canada Labour Code. In June, Air Canada announced its plans to cut 2,000 jobs in a bid to save money in the face of rising fuel costs. The group termination provisions under the labour code require that an employer that intends to dismiss 50 or more employees in any single industrial establishment within a four-week period give notice to the Minister of Labour, union representatives and non-unionized employees at least 16 weeks before the termination date.
In overnight news, according to advance estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy grew 1.6% year-over-year as expected in the second quarter of 2008, down from the 2.3% growth rate seen in the previous quarter. In quarterly terms, UK GDP increased 0.2%, also in line with expectations, after rising 0.3% in Q1.
German import prices rose 8.9% year-over-year in June, the strongest rate since November 2000, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis). Economists had expected an increase of 8.4%, up from May's 7.9% rise. Month-over-month, German import price inflation cooled somewhat to 1.5%, down from the 2.4% rate observed in the previous month.
In an interview from his office in Vienna, Austria on July 24, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher said that he was not surprised by the recent data pointing to deteriorating activity levels in the euro zone and stressed that the ECB still has room to maneuver regarding interest rates. "We expected a weaker second and maybe third quarter," he said.
According to data released by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on Friday, inflation in Japan rose slightly faster than expected in June, but nevertheless sharply from the previous month, with headline CPI rising 2.0% year-over-year in June, just higher than estimates for a 1.9% increase and above May's 1.3% gain.
By Stephen Huebl, shuebl@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , with contributions from Patrick McGee, pmcgee@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , Steve Stecyk, sstecyk@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , Geoff Matthews, gmatthews@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , Erik Kevin Franco, efranco@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it and Todd Wailoo, twailoo@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, cmarkham@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Mid-Day Report: Yen Sold off again after US Durables
| Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Jul 25 08 13:12 GMT | | |
| US Jun durable goods orders came in much stronger than expected. Headline orders rose for the second consecutive months by 0.8% versus expectation of -0.3% fall. Ex-transport orders is even more impressive, rising strongly by 2.0%, largest monthly increase since last Dec, versus expectation of -0.2% fall. The Japanese yen reversed earlier gains this week and is sold off sharply across the board as investors' sentiment flipped to positive again. Technically speaking, in spite of earlier pull back, recent rise is yen crosses remains intact. Even though GBP/JPY retreated sharply before, it's still being contained by mentioned 211.53 near term support. More upside is now expected in yen cross to retreat this week's high. Dollar recovers mildly but remains bounded in range against major currencies. U of Michigan consumer sentiment final reading and new home sales will be featured next. (Quick update: Dollar rises further against yen after U of Michgan sentiments revised sharply higher to 61.2. New home sales dropped -0.6% to 530k, above exp 504k) Sterling recovers strong today after Q2 GDP came in as expected by 0.2% qoq, 1.6% yoy. Germany import price climbed 1.5% mom, 8.9% yoy in Jun. Eurozone M3 monthly supply growth slowed sharply to 9.5% yoy, below expectation of 10.3%. Japan national CPI beat expectation and climbed 2.0% yoy in Jun. Corporate Service Price Index rose 1.2%, much stronger than expectation of 0.6%. GBP/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 212.05; (P) 213.93; (R1) 215.10; More GBP/JPY's retreat from 215.87, though steep, was contained by mentioned 211.53 support as expected and rebounds strongly in early US session. Break of 213.46 minor support indicates that fall from 215.87 has completed and flip intraday back to the upside. Further rise is now expected to be seen to 100% projection of 192.60 to 208.99 from 199.78 at 216.17 first. On the downside, while the consolidation from 215.87 might extend further, downside is still expected to be contained by 211.53 support and bring rally resumption. In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 192.60. Rebound from there is confirmed to have resumed after GBP/JPY takes out 213.91 resistance. Further rally should now be seen to 61.8% retracement of 241.35 to 192.60 at 222.75. On the downside, though, break of 207.98 will now be an important alert that rebound from 192.60 has completed and put focus back to 199.78 support in such case.
| |
Economic Indicators Update
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | JPY | Japan National CPI Y/Y Jun | 2.00% | 1.90% | 1.50% | |
| 23:30 | JPY | Japan Tokyo CPI Y/Y Jul | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.30% | |
| 23:50 | JPY | Japan CSPI Jun | 1.20% | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.70% |
| 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jun | 9.50% | 10.30% | 10.50% | 10.00% |
| 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 3mth Jun | 9.90% | 10.40% | 10.40% | |
| 08:30 | GBP | U.K. GDP Q/Q Q2 | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% | |
| 08:30 | GBP | U.K. GDP Y/Y Q2 | 1.60% | 1.60% | 2.30% | |
| 12:30 | USD | U.S. Durable goods Jun | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% |
| 12:30 | USD | ex. Transport Jun | 2.00% | -0.20% | -0.80% | -0.50% |
| 13:55 | USD | U.S. U. Michigan survey Final Jul | 61.2 | 56.4 | 56.4 | |
| 14:00 | USD | U.S. New home sales Jun | 530k | 503K | 512K | 533k |
| 14:00 | USD | U.S. New home sales M/M Jun | -0.6% | -1.80% | -2.00% | -1.7% |
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US Confidence And Housing Numbers Surprisingly Strong
| Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Jul 25 08 14:39 GMT | | |
| University of Michigan (JUL F) US New Home Sales (JUN) With fears that the US recession is a near certainty for the second half of the year, today's data has supports two of the economy's most important and hardest hit sectors - the consumer and housing sectors. Little was expected from the University of Michigan's sentiment report as it was a revision for July's preliminary reading. However, the drop in gas and food prices as well as the stabalization in equities and jobless claims clearly had an impact in leading the indicator to a sharp upside change to 61.2 from the 56.6 reading initially reported. This was a significant reversal from an intially reported 28-year low and three-month high in its own right; but the true improvement comes from the details. The economic outlook component of the indicator hit a five momth high while the one-year outlook for inflation pulled back from the initially reported recent record 5.3 percent forecast was instead left at 5.1 percent to match June. From the severely depressed housing market, the new home sales report outperformed expectations of a steady decent into the residential market's worst recession in decades. However, the numbers were better than what was initially suggested with the forecasts. While purchases of previously unoccupied homes slipped 0.6 percent, the contract ion was far less than expected and was further produced by a strong, positive revision to the previous month. Overall sales through June ran at a 530,000 annualized pace - much better than the 503,000 expected and the 512,000 of the intial reading from May. Further boosting confidence was the biggest drop in inventories in nearly 40 years thanks to inventives and steadily reduced prices. In fact, the median home price actually fell 2.0 percent on an annual pace to $230,900. On the other hand, optimism from this data should be restrained as sales have contracted 10 of the past 12 months. What's more, the new home sales report - while considered a leading indicator - is not a good barometer for the overall housing market as it accounts for only 15 percent of the overall market and largely reflects the influences of short-term factors like discounts and incentives. Disclaimer Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources. | |
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Better than Expected US Data Boost the dollar
| Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Crown Forex | Jul 25 08 14:33 GMT | | |
| The US session came to support the dollar as the economic data beat expectation with a surge in durables, better confidence and finally less than expected fall in new home sales all helped the dollar and marked the rise. The euro is now flat trading back near is opening levels, as after it neared the target we set in the previous report at 38.2% Fibonacci level it couldn't though break above setting the high short slightly at 1.5752, reversing from there with the dollar strength to 50.0% levels again as it's currently now trading around 1.5670s, while now we need to pay attention to the weekly close for closing below that level might provide stronger bearish signals for the pair in the coming week. Sterling peaked today at 1.9977 retreating from there in the US session though still now trading above 1.99 level and so for as far as sterling manages to withhold its gains to above 1.9850 it will be strong support for the pounds upside wave, while though as long as trading remains above 1.9820s we will still favor the upside for the pound. The USDJPY pair totally reversed its downside wave and breached into 107 levels and currently trading at good resistance levels where it set the high of 107.89 which open the door directly to the coming strong level at 108.20s which I say unlikely to see a successful breach and a close above it. disclaimer:The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk. | |
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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Beat Market Expectations in June
| Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Jul 25 08 14:06 GMT | | |
U.S. durable goods orders rose by a stronger than expected 0.8% M/M in June, beating the market consensus for a 0.3% M/M drop. The increase follows the upwardly revised 0.1% M/M advance in May (previously reported as a flat print). On a year ago basis, however, durable goods order are still down 1.3%. Excluding transportation, orders are up by a much stronger 2.0% M/M, which is the biggest monthly increase in this indicator since December last year. The more important core capital goods orders were also strong, posting a robust 1.4% M/M gain, following the 0.1% M/M drop in May. The 3-month annualized trend in core capital goods orders rose to a whopping 10.4% clip from 0.4% in May. The details of the report were quite strong, with only one industry posting a drop in the value of new orders during the month. In particular, there were strong gains in orders for electrical equipment (up 5.0% M/M), machinery (up 2.3% M/M), primary metals (up 5.1% M/M) and fabricated metals (up 1.7% M/M). However, orders for computers and electronics dropped by 0.5% M/M. Shipments also advanced during the month, rising by 0.5% M/M, following the 1.2% M/M drop in May. However, despite the increase in shipments, the inventory to shipments ratio remained unchanged at 1.57 in June. There is no doubt that this is a very strong report, as it suggests that the U.S. manufacturing sector continues to hang in there despite the considerable headwind of a slowing domestic economy that it continues to faces. However, we believe that this momentum is unlikely to be sustained in the coming months as the weight of sagging domestic demand outweighs the crucial support provided by strong export demand. The information contained in this report has been prepared for the information of our customers by TD Bank Financial Group. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does TD Bank Financial Group assume any responsibility or liability. | |
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Durable Goods Orders Up, Signs of Strength in Q2 Business Spending
| Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wachovia Corporation | Jul 25 08 13:31 GMT | | |
| Orders for durable goods were up 0.8 percent in June, despite expectations of a slowdown. Stripping out the volatile transportation component, orders were up 2.0 percent - the strongest monthly gain of the year. Non-defense orders ex-aircraft were up 1.4 percent, a sign business spending may not be as weak as many expected in the second quarter. Orders Up, Ex-Transport Orders Looking Less Weak
Ex Aircraft Orders Strengthening
Wachovia Corporation Disclaimer: The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wachovia Corporation and its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wachovia Corporation or any of its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or any foreign exchange transaction, or as personalized investment advice. Securities and foreign exchange transactions are not FDIC-insured, are not bank-guaranteed, and may lose value. | |
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DailyFX Analysts Bullish Australian Dollars
| Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DailyFX | Jul 25 08 14:37 GMT | | |
There have been big moves in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. DailyFX Analysts are bullish Aussies and bearish Kiwis. Read on to find out why: Chief Currency Analyst - Kathy LienMy picks: Long AUD/NZD As per my Daily Fundamentals from yesterday, the currency that I am most bearish is the New Zealand dollar. One of the currencies that it has done the worst against is its counterpart, the Australian dollar. Fundamentally, the trade balance report is due for release on Sunday and I expect the number to continue to be kiwi bearish. Technically, AUD/NZD is still trading above its most recent breakzone at 1.2800 and its uptrend remains intact. Senior Currency Strategist - Boris SchlossbergMy picks: Long AUDNZD Kiwi trade balance comes our sunday night and i am bearish the number. With RBNZ lowering rates the pressure on the kiwi continues. So my trade of the day is Long AUDNZD with 1.2915 stop Technical Currency Analyst - Jaime SaettleMy picks: Short NZDUSD (from last week), stop .7761, target below .5927 Last week: "Expectations are for price to plunge later this year and eventually test the .5927. This NZDUSD short is setting up as one of the best opportunities in recent years. Longer term traders can short now against .7921" This week: Kiwi has tanked as expected. Risk can be moved to .7761. The best thing to do here is sit tight and enjoy the ride. If you've been following my longer term counts, you know that I expect wave C of a long term expanded flat to end below .5927 in the next several months. As the decline from .7761 matures, I'll be better able to pinpoint areas to add to (or initiate if late to the game) short positions. Currency Analyst - David RodriguezMy picks: AUD/JPY Long Last week I wrote "If you're willing to allow for sizeable pullbacks, I would look to go long the AUDJPY at or near current market levels, placing max risk below a recent double-bottom at 101.50, with profit targets set at previous highs of 107.90." That trade is about 50 points in the hole right now, but my AUDJPY-bullish bias remains. The Aussie has been able to withstand a bearish onslaught from a clear sell-off in commodities, and continued demand for its high yields will (in my opinion) continue to drive it higher against the Japanese Yen. As such, I'd like to go long (or stay long) at current market levels, and place max risk below previous intraday lows of 102.13. Any standing positions from last week should have their stops adjusted accordingly. Currency Analyst - John KicklighterMy picks: Long AUDUSD The high yielders seem to be in flux. A surprise 25-basis point rate cut from the RBNZ has shaken carry trade convictions for the kiwi dollar and its aussie counterpart seems to have been caught in the wave. However, looking at interest rate expectations, the market is still pricing in a hawkish bias from the the RBA through the coming year (though it is modest) while the New Zeland central bank is still looking at a cumulative 135 basis points of easing through the next 12 months. This would suggest a clear fundamental trade for long AUDNZD (which is technically strong as well); however the mature trend isn't where I'm looking today. Instead, AUDUSD is showing an attractive setup now after a four-session selloff to a rising trendline that is nearly a year in the making. Support is noted around 1.9525/35 where the aforementioned formation meets another short-term trendline and a confluence of fibs. In trading this, an entry as near to 0.9525 as possible would be ideal. For additional support though, there is a notable pivot level that has acted as a floor and ceiling to price action around 1.95. I will place my stops below this level (though not so far away to make the risk too great as this has been a momentous reversal and has a chance of turning into a major trend change). My position will comprise two lots, the first target will equal the risk taking on that lot; and the second will be more aggressive for around 150 points - though depending on how price action unfolds, I may allow the second lot to run as a confirmation of the dominate trend could push spot to new multi-decade highs. This optimal scenario aside, the fundamentals for a sustained rally may be in jeopardy. Already at such great heights, interest rate change expectations are certainly turning in favor of an aggressive Fed; there is a lot of premium built into a US recession and ongoing 18th year of Aussie growth; and event risk is growing. To avoild unscalable volatility, I'll be move up my stops very tight before Thursday's US 2Q GDP numbers and Friday's NFPs. Currency Analyst - Ilya SpivakMy picks: Short NZDUSD on close below 0.7424 NZDUSD has been trading lower in a downward sloping channel since mid-March. The most recent decline began as the pair showed a Hanging Man candlestick at channel resistance near 0.77. The bearish move accelerated sharply lower when the RBNZ surprised the markets by cutting interest rates for the first time since 2003. Price action has now found support at 0.7424, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 08/17/07-02/27/08 rally. A break here opens the door for significantly more downside mometum to the 61.8% Fib at 0.7238. Strategy: Short NZDUSD (or add to existing short position) on a daily close below 0.7424, targeting 0.7238. Currency Analyst - John RiveraMy picks: Short NZD/USD I am bearish the Kiwi as the country heads steadfast into a recession, expectations are that the RBNZ will have to cut rates several times over the next years to provide a soft landing for the economy. Considering that rates were at a record high the chances are strong that they will meet expectations. I expect the pair to fall until it meets support at 0.7241 the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6636-0.8205. Disclaimer Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources. | |
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The Buck Does NOT Stop Here
| Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DailyFX | Jul 25 08 13:47 GMT | | |
| The dollar rally to this point has been impressive. A continuation of the rally is expected.
EUR/USDWe turned bearish at 1.57 yesterday, mentioning that the drop from 1.5944 was awfully deep for a correction. Although 1.5611 has been the bullish ‘line in the sand’, the alternate count treated the advance from 1.5283 as a B wave flat and the drop from 1.6039 is wave C of the flat and will not end until below 1.5283. Additionally, if we are correct in our flipping to bearish, then the strongest part of the decline should be upon us and price should remain below 1.58. For the first time in a long time, bulls are on the defensive. STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5797, target below 1.5283
USD/JPYPreferred count: The advance from 95.72 is wave W in a W-X-Y complex correction and the drop from 108.57-103.76 is wave X. Wave Y is underway towards 116 (equality with wave W). Alternate: price action from 108.57 is forming a triangle in wave X. The best strategy is to play a bullish break.
GBP/USDThe GBPUSD tested and held the trendline drawn off of the 6/13, 7/7, and 7/8 lows. Still, it is likely that wave D of the triangle is underway towards 1.9550/1.96. This is our stance as long as price is below 2.0075.
USD/CHFA major reason that we have switched to a generally USD bullish bias is the USDCHF. The pair has broken above a channel that has held since early May. Under this count, the 3 wave rally from .9647 was wave W in a complex correction. The choppy decline from above 1.06 serves as wave X and wave Y is underway now. Expect the advance to reach 1.10 (former 4th wave).
USD/CADThe USDCAD continues to advance off of what we perceive to be the wave E low at .9974. Expectations are for a bullish break above 1.0378 in the next few weeks. We’ll discuss objectives when warranted. Price ideally remains above 1.0077. STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9818, target above 1.0378
AUD/USDThe weekly chart of the AUDUSD puts into perspective just how significant of a top may have formed at .9849. Price spiked through the upper channel line last week and is now testing a resistance line drawn off of the August 2007, January 2008, and June 2008 lows. Expect a bearish break.
NZD/USDKiwi is a bit ahead of the AUDUSD in terms of its longer term structure. The decline is clearly more mature but still has a ways to go. The break of .7445 signals makes it likely that price will remain below .7761 going forward. Watch the longer term trendline drawn off the June 2006 and August 2007 lows. This level should provide at least interim support.
Disclaimer Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources. | |
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Morning Market Recap: Equities Open Higher; Fixed Income Selling Off
| News Recap | Written by CEP News | Jul 25 08 14:07 GMT | | |
| (CEP News) - North American fixed income markets are declining and equities are up with yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes up 6.9 bps to 4.07% and Canadian 10-year CGBs up 3.2 bps to 3.83%. Futures on the Dow Jones industrial average are up 64 points to 11,415. The Canadian dollar is down 0.0005 to 0.9850 USD and the euro is down 0.0004 to 1.5673 USD. U.S. two-year yields are up 6.4 bps to 2.67%, with five-year yields up 8.0 bps to 3.40%, 10-year yields up 6.9 bps to 4.07% and 30-year yields up 5.6 bps to 4.66%. Yields on two-year Canadian government bonds are flat at 3.14%, with five-year yields up 2.2 bps to 3.40%, 10-year yields up 3.2 bps to 3.83% and 30-year yields up 2.2 bps to 4.15%. The Canadian 10-year note is yielding 23.94 bps less than the U.S. 10-year note. In Germany, returns on two-year German bonds are flat at 4.43%, with five-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.53%, 10-year yields up 2.1 bps to 4.59% and 30-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.85%. Yields on UK two-year bonds are flat at 4.96%, with five-year yields flat at 4.94%, 10-year yields down 0.8 bps to 4.97% and 30-year yields flat at 4.61%. Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index is up 43 points to 13,249, the Dow Jones industrial average up 89 points to 11,438, the S&P 500 up 10 points to 1262 and the Nasdaq up 22 points to 2,303. European stock markets are lower, with the Eurostoxx down 1 point to 2,859, the UK FTSE 100 down 9 points to 5,354 and the German DAX down 3 points to 6,438. Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index closed up 43 points to 13,249, the Dow Jones industrial average up 89 points to 11,438, the S&P 500 up 10 points to 1262 and the Nasdaq up 22 points to 2,303. European stock markets closed in negative territory with the Eurostoxx down 1 point to 2,859, the UK FTSE 100 down 9 points to 5,354 and the German DAX down 3 points to 6,438. The Canadian dollar is down 0.0004 to 0.9850 against the U.S. dollar (1.0152 USD/CAD) and up 0.51 to 106.27 against the yen. The U.S. dollar is up 0.56 to 107.89 against the yen and the Dollar Index is down 0.098 to 72.835. The euro is down 0.0004 to 1.5673 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.0002 to 1.5912 against the Canadian dollar, down 0.0019 to 0.7873 against the pound sterling and is higher by 0.83 to 169.11 against the yen. The pound sterling is up 0.0041 to 1.9910 against the U.S. dollar and up 0.0048 to 2.0211 against the Canadian dollar. WTI crude oil is down $1.98 to $123.51. The front month gold contract at the Chicago Board of Trade is down $1.70 to $920.10 per ounce. All data taken at 10 a.m. EDT. Generated by CEP Newswires, edited by Cristina Markham, cmarkham@economicnews.ca CEP Newswires - CEP News © 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.ca The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News. A copy of CEP News disclaimer can be found at http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/disclaimer. | |
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New-Home Sales in the U.S. Drop Less Than Forecast
By Timothy R. Homan
July 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new homes in the U.S. dropped less than forecast last month as builders offered incentives to reduce a glut of unsold properties.
Purchases decreased 0.6 percent to a 530,000 pace from 533,000 in May, a reading higher than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. A separate report showed orders for durable goods unexpectedly rose in June.
The number of properties on the market dropped by the most in four decades, today's report showed, indicating builders are making some headway in clearing out inventories.
``We may have not touched bottom yet in the housing market, but we're clearly not in any freefall,'' Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania, said before the report.
Stocks climbed and Treasuries slid after today's reports eased concern that the economic slowdown will worsen. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index gained 0.8 percent to 1,261.96 at 10:10 a.m. in New York. Benchmark 10-year note yields rose to 4.06 percent from 4 percent late yesterday.
Economists forecast sales would decline to a 503,000 pace, from a previously reported 512,000 for May, according to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 480,000 to 530,000.
Durable Goods
Orders for long-lasting goods climbed 0.8 percent in June, Commerce also reported today. May orders were revised to show a 0.1 percent gain, better than previously estimated. Excluding demand for transportation equipment, which tends to be volatile, orders jumped 2 percent, the most this year.
Purchases of new houses reached a low of 513,000 at an annual pace in March.
The median sales prices last month decreased 2 percent from June 2007 to $230,900. These figures can be influenced by changes in the mix of sales at the regional level. For that reason, economists prefer price measures that track the same home over time.
The supply of homes at the current sales rate fell to 10 months' worth from 10.4 months in May. There were 426,000 homes for sale at the end of June at an annual pace, the fewest since December 2004. The figure was down 5.3 percent from the prior month, the biggest decline since November 1963.
A report yesterday from the National Association of Realtors showed existing home sales fell 2.6 percent to a 4.86 million annual rate, the lowest level in a decade. The median home price dropped 6.1 percent from June of last year.
Fannie, Freddie
Concern over the ability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. purchasers of mortgages, to survive the meltdown in subprime lending has heightened the credit crisis and may push up mortgage rates and further curtail access to loans.
U.S. foreclosure filings more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier as falling home prices left borrowers owing more on mortgages than their properties were worth.
One in every 171 households was foreclosed on, received a default notice or was warned of a pending auction. That was an increase of 121 percent from a year earlier and 14 percent from the first quarter, RealtyTrac Inc. said today in a statement.
Lawmakers in Washington, trying to alleviate the worst housing recession in 25 years, are working on passing legislation designed to stem mortgage defaults.
Today's Commerce report showed that compared with a year earlier sales of new homes were down 33 percent.
Cutting Back
Builders are scaling back on projects to get inventories more in line with demand. Housing starts have fallen 53 percent from a peak rate of 2.27 million at an annual rate in January 2006 and residential investment dropped at a 26 percent annual pace in the first quarter.
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders dropped to a record low this month, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo said July 16.
Pulte Homes Inc., the third-largest U.S. homebuilder, this week reported a second-quarter loss of $158.4 million. ``We see no immediate signs of this housing downturn relenting,'' Pulte Chief Executive Officer Richard Dugas said yesterday on a conference call with analysts.
While sales of previously owned homes account for about 85 percent of the housing market, new home sales are considered a timelier indicator because they are based on contract signings.
New-home purchases fell in two of four regions. They dropped 2 percent in the South and 0.9 percent in the West. Sales rose 5.3 percent in the Northeast and 2.5 percent in the Midwest.
To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net
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July 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new homes in the U.S. dropped less than forecast last month as builders offered incentives to reduce a glut of unsold properties.
Purchases decreased 0.6 percent to a 530,000 pace from 533,000 in May, a reading higher than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. A separate report showed orders for durable goods unexpectedly rose in June.
The number of properties on the market dropped by the most in four decades, today's report showed, indicating builders are making some headway in clearing out inventories.
``We may have not touched bottom yet in the housing market, but we're clearly not in any freefall,'' Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania, said before the report.
Stocks climbed and Treasuries slid after today's reports eased concern that the economic slowdown will worsen. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index gained 0.8 percent to 1,261.96 at 10:10 a.m. in New York. Benchmark 10-year note yields rose to 4.06 percent from 4 percent late yesterday.
Economists forecast sales would decline to a 503,000 pace, from a previously reported 512,000 for May, according to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 480,000 to 530,000.
Durable Goods
Orders for long-lasting goods climbed 0.8 percent in June, Commerce also reported today. May orders were revised to show a 0.1 percent gain, better than previously estimated. Excluding demand for transportation equipment, which tends to be volatile, orders jumped 2 percent, the most this year.
Purchases of new houses reached a low of 513,000 at an annual pace in March.
The median sales prices last month decreased 2 percent from June 2007 to $230,900. These figures can be influenced by changes in the mix of sales at the regional level. For that reason, economists prefer price measures that track the same home over time.
The supply of homes at the current sales rate fell to 10 months' worth from 10.4 months in May. There were 426,000 homes for sale at the end of June at an annual pace, the fewest since December 2004. The figure was down 5.3 percent from the prior month, the biggest decline since November 1963.
A report yesterday from the National Association of Realtors showed existing home sales fell 2.6 percent to a 4.86 million annual rate, the lowest level in a decade. The median home price dropped 6.1 percent from June of last year.
Fannie, Freddie
Concern over the ability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. purchasers of mortgages, to survive the meltdown in subprime lending has heightened the credit crisis and may push up mortgage rates and further curtail access to loans.
U.S. foreclosure filings more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier as falling home prices left borrowers owing more on mortgages than their properties were worth.
One in every 171 households was foreclosed on, received a default notice or was warned of a pending auction. That was an increase of 121 percent from a year earlier and 14 percent from the first quarter, RealtyTrac Inc. said today in a statement.
Lawmakers in Washington, trying to alleviate the worst housing recession in 25 years, are working on passing legislation designed to stem mortgage defaults.
Today's Commerce report showed that compared with a year earlier sales of new homes were down 33 percent.
Cutting Back
Builders are scaling back on projects to get inventories more in line with demand. Housing starts have fallen 53 percent from a peak rate of 2.27 million at an annual rate in January 2006 and residential investment dropped at a 26 percent annual pace in the first quarter.
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders dropped to a record low this month, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo said July 16.
Pulte Homes Inc., the third-largest U.S. homebuilder, this week reported a second-quarter loss of $158.4 million. ``We see no immediate signs of this housing downturn relenting,'' Pulte Chief Executive Officer Richard Dugas said yesterday on a conference call with analysts.
While sales of previously owned homes account for about 85 percent of the housing market, new home sales are considered a timelier indicator because they are based on contract signings.
New-home purchases fell in two of four regions. They dropped 2 percent in the South and 0.9 percent in the West. Sales rose 5.3 percent in the Northeast and 2.5 percent in the Midwest.
To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net
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Paulson's Fannie-Freddie Deal Scraps Free-Market Push
By John Brinsley and Rebecca Christie
July 25 (Bloomberg) -- In October 2003, Treasury Secretary John Snow told Congress ``we need to be on guard'' against the ``perception'' that the U.S. government stood behind the stocks and bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
This week his successor, Henry Paulson, has seen a plan to make such a guarantee explicit to the brink of passage, getting a presidential veto threat withdrawn and reversing years of Republican-led efforts to unhook the companies' fortunes from the government's finances.
The Fannie-Freddie legislation -- it cleared the House July 23 and the Senate may vote as soon as today -- is the result of circumstances and personality. A lame-duck White House is struggling to revive the economy and prevent a further meltdown in the housing market that would demolish the centerpiece of President George W. Bush's ``ownership society.'' Meanwhile, Paulson's desire to get a deal through the Democratic-majority Congress outweighed the administration's free-market orthodoxy.
``Paulson has been able to use a lot of leverage on the White House,'' said Vince Reinhart, who used to head the Federal Reserve's monetary-affairs division and is now at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. The former chairman of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ``has authority associated with his previous job, and events are such that if policy makers have to do something, they ultimately do it.''
Stock Purchases
Once Bush signs the legislation into law, the Treasury will have the right to buy unlimited stock in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-chartered corporations that account for almost half of the U.S.'s $12 trillion mortgage market. The measures give a government backstop for their $5.2 trillion of debt outstanding, allowing them to borrow at a cheaper rate than private companies.
Largely missing from the bill are provisions the Bush administration and other Republicans have pursued for years: powers comparable to those over commercial banks that would limit the mortgage giants' lines of new business and their investment portfolios.
``This should have been a perfect opportunity'' for Republicans to ``demand real accountability and reform,'' Richard Armey, the former Republican leader in the U.S. House of Representatives, wrote in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal today. ``Having repeatedly called for Fannie and Freddie restructuring in the past, Mr. Paulson now fights to defend them in their current form.''
Treasury spokeswoman Michele Davis didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Bush Concession
The final concession on this week's deal came when Paulson persuaded the president to drop a veto threat over $3.9 billion in housing grants to communities pushed by Democrats.
``Congress knew it had the Bush administration over a barrel,'' said Peter Wallison, a Washington-based former Treasury general counsel and an author of a book on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. ``Paulson has had to make the best of a bad job.''
Snow told Congress in October 2003: ``We don't believe there is any government guarantee,'' for Fannie and Freddie. ``It's not in our view a reality, but it's a perception of an implied guarantee.''
The companies' lobbying efforts in Congress fended off Snow's effort to form a new, tougher regulator with power to approve new products and set capital requirements, two areas critical to their growth. That success came even as company officials came under scrutiny for accounting errors.
Taking Charge
When Paulson, 62, replaced Snow in July 2006, he took up the charge for tougher monitoring of the firms, calling on Congress to set up a new regulator.
The effort got caught up by the turmoil that engulfed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their shares slid to their lowest levels in more than 17 years as investors doubted whether they had enough capital to offset writedowns and losses.
Fannie Mae today fell 13 percent to $10.43 at 9:39 a.m. in New York trading, compared with $10.25 before Paulson announced his rescue plan July 13. Freddie Mac dropped 7.4 percent to $8.16, compared with $7.75 on July 11.
Because the companies now finance more than two-thirds of new U.S. mortgages, legislators said the government couldn't let them fail and bring down the home-loan market. That would have sent the economy into a deep recession, economists said.
Emergency Announcement
Officials discussed a range of options and consulted with congressional leaders over the weekend of July 12-13. Paulson announced his proposed rescue on the Sunday evening before Asian markets opened.
The legislation now before the Senate may even allow the companies to pay dividends and their officials to keep their current compensation levels if they tap the government for funding.
``The GSEs got what they wanted again,'' said Paul Miller, an analyst with Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Virginia. ``They got a big backstop and they got language that the Treasury doesn't necessarily have to stop them from paying dividends or cap compensation.''
Shares of Fannie Mae increased seven-fold and Freddie Mac stock multiplied eight times during the 1990s -- twice the gain during that decade of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index.
The firms sell debt to invest in mortgages and package home loans into securities. Their federal charter and access to U.S. taxpayers' credit gave investors confidence that they had implicit government backing.
It's not the first time the Bush administration's free- market ideology was put aside to avoid a deeper crisis. Bush's first Treasury chief, Paul O'Neill, backed International Monetary Fund loans to Argentina and Turkey as the countries struggled with sliding currencies.
``O'Neill and Snow had headwinds to deal with,'' said Rob Nichols, a former Treasury official under O'Neill and Snow who is president of the Financial Services Forum, a Washington-based trade group for the nation's biggest banks. ``Paulson has had gale-force winds.''
To contact the reporters on this story: John Brinsley in Washington at jbrinsley@bloomberg.net; Rebecca Christie in Washington at Rchristie4@bloomberg.net
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U.S. Durable Goods for June: Statistical Summary (Table)
By Kristy Scheuble
July 25 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of the June durable goods report from the Commerce Department. ===============================================================================
June May April March Feb. Jan. Dec.
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 YOY% =============================================================================== NEW ORDERS 0.8% 0.1% -1.0% -0.2% 1.1% -4.7% 4.1% -1.3% Ex-transportation 2.0% -0.5% 1.9% 1.8% -1.2% -0.9% 2.0% 5.9% Ex-defense 0.1% -0.6% -0.8% 0.1% 0.3% -3.8% 1.6% -4.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Capital goods -0.9% 1.7% -1.9% -0.3% 2.4% -8.5% 9.8% 0.0% Non-defense -3.2% 0.2% -2.4% 1.4% 1.6% -6.3% 3.5% -6.2% ex-aircraft 1.4% -0.1% 3.1% -1.0% -0.9% -0.8% 4.5% 4.6%
3-mo. annualized 10.4% 0.4% 1.3% 4.7% 11.8% 4.5% -3.2% n/a Defense 15.8% 14.1% 3.3% -13.2% 9.2% -23.0% 89.5% 81.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Transportation -2.6% 1.9% -8.3% -5.1% 7.2% -13.2% 9.3% -17.3% Vehicles and parts 1.8% -3.6% -3.4% -4.9% -2.3% -0.4% -3.5% -19.0% Nondefense aircraft -25.1% 6.0% -24.6% 8.7% 12.4% -28.7% 5.7% -43.5% ===============================================================================
June May April March Feb. Jan. Dec.
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 YOY% =============================================================================== Computers, electronics -0.5% 2.7% -2.0% 0.9% 1.5% -1.4% 2.1% 4.3% Electrical equipment 5.0% 2.0% 18.1% -18.8% 2.5% 5.5% -0.4% 8.7% Machinery 2.3% -3.7% 4.8% 8.5% -8.3% -1.1% 8.9% 10.9% Primary metals 5.1% -1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 1.4% 0.7% -0.4% 22.9% Fabricated metals 1.7% -0.3% -2.4% 5.2% 0.3% -4.1% 1.9% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPMENTS 0.5% -1.2% 1.8% -0.9% -1.9% 2.2% -0.8% -0.9% Ex-transportation 0.2% -0.3% 2.1% 0.2% -1.4% 1.8% -0.3% 2.2% Ex-defense 0.6% -1.2% 1.6% -1.0% -2.4% 1.9% -0.7% -2.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Capital goods 0.5% -0.5% 2.4% 0.6% -3.4% 2.5% 0.6% 3.8% Non-defense cap goods 0.5% -0.3% 1.8% 0.3% -3.6% 1.7% 0.9% 2.0% ex-aircraft 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.8% -1.3% -0.4% 1.1% 2.9%
3-mo. annualized 5.9% 2.0% -1.5% -0.4% 1.0% 2.2% 2.3% n/a Defense Shipments 0.3% -2.3% 6.9% 2.8% -1.6% 9.6% -2.4% 20.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Transportation 1.4% -3.8% 0.9% -4.1% -3.2% 3.3% -2.0% -9.3% ===============================================================================
June May April March Feb. Jan. Dec.
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 YOY% =============================================================================== Vehicles and parts 1.6% -3.7% -3.1% -6.0% -2.4% 0.2% -2.8% -19.6% Nondefense aircraft 0.3% -5.1% 9.3% -3.7% -17.4% 13.9% 0.5% -1.8% Computers, electronics -3.9% -2.8% 5.9% -0.8% -8.8% 9.4% -1.7% -2.6% Semiconductors -15.6% -21.6% 35.3% -5.5% -31.2% 43.5% -8.2% -23.7% Electrical equipment -0.4% 0.4% 1.1% -0.1% -1.5% 2.2% -0.6% 0.7% Machinery 2.4% 0.1% -0.8% -0.6% 4.1% -3.2% 3.0% 6.0% Primary metals 2.8% 1.4% 3.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.3% 14.4% Fabricated metals 0.6% -0.4% 2.0% 1.6% -0.8% 1.5% -1.8% 2.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ INVENTORIES 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 5.9% 3-mo. annual change $20.7 $26.5 $26.1 $25.2 $25.2 $26.9 $24.5 n/a Non-defense cap goods 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 10.3% ex-aircraft 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 5.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ UNFILLED ORDERS 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 2.3% 15.4% Non-defense cap goods 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.0% 2.4% 21.6% ex-aircraft 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 9.1% Inventory/Shipments 1.57 1.57 1.54 1.56 1.53 1.49 1.52 1.34 =============================================================================== NOTE: All figures are seasonally adjusted, except year-over-year, which is non-seasonally adjusted. Percent changes are month over month unless otherwise noted. Three month annualized calculations are the latest three months average compared to the previous three months average.
SOURCE: U.S. Commerce Department. http://www.census.gov/m3
To contact the reporter on this story: Kristy Scheuble in Washington at kmckeaney@bloomberg.net
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