Tuesday, January 20, 2009

India Sugar Output to Miss Target as Yields Drop, Minister Says

By Pratik Parija

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world’s second-biggest sugar maker, may produce less this year than forecast last month because of lower yields in the main cane growing states, likely tightening global supply.

Production in the year ending Sept. 30, 2009, may total 18 million tons, compared with 20 million tons forecast in December, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said today. The estimate matches the one made by S.L Jain, director general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association, on Jan. 16.

“The sucrose content in the sugar cane is less” in the biggest producing states of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra this year, Pawar told reporters in New Delhi. Still, the nation has enough reserves to meet demand, he said.

Lower Indian output may widen a global deficit forecast at 5.8 million metric tons in the 2008-09 season by Czarnikow Group Ltd., supporting sugar prices in New York. India may permit duty- free imports of raw sugar to boost domestic supplies, Pawar said.

Sugar output may drop to 19.5 million tons in year to Sept. 30, the Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation Ltd. said Jan. 6. Production was 26.4 million tons a year ago.

Separately, India may ease restrictions on overseas sale of aromatic basmati rice, Pawar said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Pratik Parija in New Delhi at pparija@bloomberg.net.

Corn Jumps for Second Day as Dry Weather Damages Argentine Crop

By Jae Hur

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Corn climbed for a second day and to a one-week high on speculation dry weather will damage crops in Argentina, the world’s second-biggest exporter of the grain after the U.S.

Topsoil drying, and heat and dry stress will be notable through Jan. 24 as temperatures rise across Argentina, Mike Tannura, a meteorologist for T-Storm Weather in Chicago, said in an e-mail yesterday. Rain is unlikely with only a marginal chance of rain early next week when temperatures cool, he said.

“Dry conditions in Argentina are the main concern for the corn crop there,” Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker Okachi & Co., said today. “For soybeans, we may see a technical correction after recent gains.”

Corn for March delivery added 5.5 cents, or 1.4 percent, to close at $3.965 a bushel in electronic trading, the highest compared with closing prices since Jan. 9. U.S. trading was closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

The grain dropped 4.8 percent last week after the U.S. government on Sept. 30 forecast global reserves will rise to the highest since 2002. The price has fallen 50 percent from a record $7.9925 in June.

Soybeans for March delivery slipped 0.25 cent to $10.1975 a bushel. The contract lost 1.5 percent last week, the first drop in six weeks.

Wheat for March delivery slipped 0.25 cent to $5.78 a bushel. Wheat futures have tumbled 55 percent from a record $12.75 on March 13.

On Euronext Paris, milling wheat for March slipped 25 cents, or 0.2 percent, to 150.75 euros a metric ton.

Wheat May Gain

Wheat may advance to $7.30 a bushel by the end of this year as demand continues to increase and farmers respond to slumping prices by planting fewer acres, Commerzbank AG said in a report yesterday.

The grain’s immediate potential to gain is limited because of an expected surplus of about 30 million tons this year, Frankfurt-based analysts Eugen Weinberg, Barbara Lambrecht and Carsten Fritsch said in a note to investors yesterday. They forecast higher prices in the “medium term,” citing rising consumption and reduced plantings.

Corn may jump to $6 a bushel, assuming economies improve during the year and oil prices rise, Commerzbank said. Soybeans may rise to $12 a bushel in the next 12 months on continued demand from China, the analysts said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jae Hur in Tokyo at jhur1@bloomberg.net

Copper, Aluminum Pace Decline in Metals as U.S. Housing Shrinks

By Claudia Carpenter and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Copper, aluminum and nickel led declines in industrial metals in London on speculation that demand will weaken as the U.S. housing slump worsens.

U.S. housing starts and permits to begin building probably dropped to record lows last month, economists said in Bloomberg News surveys before the Commerce Department report in two days. Construction is the biggest use for copper in the U.S., and prices slid 54 percent last year as the American recession reduced home buying.

“The big influence now is the outlook for economic growth,” said Peter Fertig, a consultant for Dresdner Kleinwort in Hainburg, Germany. “The continued fall of housing starts in December might remain a burden for copper in the short run.”

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange dropped $170, or 5 percent, to $3,260 a metric ton as of 10:54 a.m. local time. That’s the biggest intraday decline since Jan. 12. Aluminum fell $35, or 2.5 percent, to $1,388 a ton. The contract earlier reached $1,370, the lowest since July 2003.

With energy accounting for 40 percent of aluminum production costs, and oil futures down 25 percent this year, “some analysts fear that aluminum supply would not decline sufficiently,” Fertig said, forecasting prices may drop to $1,350 in the next two weeks.

Commodities measured by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI index declined 4.2 percent today as an economic downturn deepened in China, the U.S. and Europe. China’s urban unemployment rate jumped for the first time since 2003 and may climb to an almost 30-year high.

Industrial metals are likely to decline further, said Fraser Phillips, a Toronto-based analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

‘Negative Impact’

“An extended global recession would have a significant negative impact on the base metals commodity complex,” he said in a report, recommending that investors stay “underweight” in copper, aluminum and mining stocks.

LME Chief Executive Officer Martin Abbott told reporters today that the bourse expects the volume of lots traded to decline by about 10 percent this year.

The exchange this month said 113 million futures and options on metals and plastics were traded last year. The exchange, founded in 1877, handled $10.24 trillion of contracts compared with $9.5 trillion in 2007.

Inventories of copper in warehouses monitored by the exchange jumped 3.9 percent to 409,100 tons, the highest since January 2004. Aluminum stockpiles gained 0.6 percent to almost 2.6 million tons, the most since July 1994.

Lead declined 3.2 percent to $1,147 a ton, nickel retreated 3.5 percent to $10,900 a ton and zinc fell 4.3 percent to $1,215 a ton. Tin decreased 3.1 percent to $10,800 a ton.

Lead inventories jumped 9.2 percent to 49,700 tons, the biggest increase in a year.

To contact the reporters on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net; Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net

Cocoa Advances in London as Exports Decline From Ivory Coast

By M. Shankar

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Cocoa advanced for a third day in London as exports from Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest producer of the beans, declined 14 percent last month. Robusta coffee and white sugar fell. Shipments dropped to 153,036 metric tons in December from 178,597 tons a year earlier, according to data supplied by the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro today. Cocoa-product exports rose to 28,323 tons from 24,127 tons a year earlier.

Production in Ivory Coast will probably drop 4 percent for the season that began Oct. 1, Brussels-based financial-services company Fortis said last month. Ghana, the second-biggest grower, will also have a smaller crop, International Cocoa Organization statistician Laurent Pipitone said last week.

Cocoa for March delivery rose 22 pounds, or 1.4 percent, to 1,800 pounds ($2,522) a ton as of 11:29 a.m. on London’s Liffe exchange.

London-traded cocoa rallied 71 percent last year, the biggest annual increase since at least 1990, on concern that a decline in the Ivorian crop would dent global supply.

The increase in prices, coupled with the economic slowdown and weakness of the pound and the dollar, prompted Lindt & Spruengli AG, Switzerland’s oldest chocolatier, to say 2009 may be the toughest period in its 164-year history.

“The worldwide uncertainty prevailing in 2009 will probably be more challenging than at any other time,” the company said in a statement today.

Cocoa futures for March delivery fell $85, or 3.5 percent, to $2,378 a ton on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Robusta coffee for March delivery fell $7, or 0.4 percent, to $1,650 a ton on Liffe. White sugar slumped $4.20, or 1.2 percent, to $340.80 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: M. Shankar in London at mshankar@bloomberg.net

Oil Falls Below $33 a Barrel on Rising Supply, Contract Expiry

By Mark Shenk

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $33 a barrel in New York as declining demand bolstered U.S. supplies and traders sold positions on the last day of the February contract.

Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, where oil for New York futures is stored, climbed to 33 million barrels on Jan. 9, the highest since records started four years ago, according to the Energy Department. Traders have to sell February futures today or accept the barrels at a time of falling demand.

“There’s a continuing focus on oversupply, especially at Cushing,” said Tom Bentz, senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas in New York.

Crude oil for February delivery fell 93 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $35.58 a barrel at 9:59 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $32.70, the lowest since Dec. 19. Prices are down 61 percent from a year ago.

Floor trading was closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday yesterday. Electronic trades will be booked today for settlement. The more-active March contract dropped $1.10, or 2.6 percent, to $41.47 a barrel.

Rising U.S. stockpiles and forecasts from the International Energy Agency and OPEC for declining world demand contributed to an 11 percent drop in Nymex crude oil last week. Prices are down 20 percent this year, after tumbling 54 percent in 2008.

Russian Gas

Russia and Ukraine signed 10-year natural-gas contracts, ending a dispute that squeezed supplies to the European Union for almost two weeks. Shipments resumed today.

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon visited the Gaza Strip today as Israel pulled out troops following an end to rocket attacks by the militant Islamist Hamas group.

“All of the props that were supporting the market are being taken down,” said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. “The Russia-Ukraine gas dispute has been settled, although I don’t know when there will be deliveries in Europe, and Israeli troops are leaving Gaza.”

The dollar climbed as high as $1.2911 against the euro, the strongest since Dec. 10, and most recently traded at $1.2939. Gains in the U.S. currency diminish the appeal of dollar-priced commodities used to hedge against inflation.

“The rallying dollar and weak stock markets don’t create an attractive market for oil,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy at MF Global Ltd. in New York.

Brent crude oil for March settlement declined 43 cents, or 1 percent, to $44.07 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Arab Stocks Fall Most in 2 Months on Oil’s Drop, Sabic Results

By Ayesha Daya and Michael Patterson

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Arab Stocks dropped the most in two months after crude oil fell below $33 a barrel and Saudi Basic Industries Corp. posted a record slump in earnings.

Sabic tumbled 9.8 percent after the world’s largest chemical maker by market value said fourth-quarter net income fell 95 percent, a steeper decline than analysts estimated. Abu Dhabi National Energy Co., the state-controlled energy investor known as Taqa, lost 5.1 percent as oil dropped and the company said it will invest less money than previously planned. Saudi British Bank and Al-Rajhi Bank slid on lower profit.

“Sabic’s miss is quite significant and the market will be trying to determine why it is so large,” said Ali Khan, head of cash equity trading at Dubai-based Arqaam Capital Ltd.

Arab stocks tumbled since July, led by banks and property developers, as oil’s retreat from a record $147.27 a barrel eroded government surpluses amid a real-estate slump and credit- market freeze. HSBC Holdings Plc predicts the economies of oil exporting Gulf states will contract if crude prices decline to $25 a barrel.

The Bloomberg GCC 200 Index of the Gulf region’s shares dropped 4.3 percent to 42.55 at 6:25 p.m. in Dubai, the steepest retreat since Nov. 11 and the lowest level since pricing began in December 2005. Egyptian stocks fell for a 10th straight day, sending the CASE 30 Index down 4.7 percent, its steepest decline since Nov. 24.

Sabic Retreats

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share index slid 2.4 percent, while the Dubai Financial Market General Index dropped 3.7 percent. Oman’s Muscat Securities Market Index tumbled 6.3 percent and Qatar’s DSM 20 Index lost 6.2 percent for the steepest declines among 89 equity indexes tracked by Bloomberg globally.

Sabic lost 9.8 percent to 40.5 riyals, the lowest level since March 2004. Net income dropped to 311 million riyals ($82.9 million) from 6.87 billion riyals a year earlier, the Riyadh-based company said. Analysts on average predicted 4.74 billion riyals in profit. Industries Qatar, the country’s largest petrochemicals maker, tumbled for an eighth day, retreating 6.9 percent to 66.4 riyals.

Crude oil for February delivery lost as much as 10 percent to $32.70 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Taqa declined to 94 fils. The company will spend $3 billion on acquisitions in 2009, a quarter less than originally planned as asset prices fell amid the global financial crisis.

Banks Drop

Saudi British Bank dropped 3.2 percent to 59.75 riyals. The lender that’s 40 percent-owned by U.K. bank HSBC Holdings Plc said fourth-quarter profit fell to 657 million riyals from 705 million riyals in the year-earlier period.

Al-Rajhi Bank lost 0.9 percent to 54.75 riyals. Saudi Arabia’s largest bank by market value said fourth-quarter profit declined 10 percent.

Emaar Properties PJSC slid 6.8 percent to 2.05 dirhams. The United Arab Emirates’ biggest real estate developer plans to raise as much as $4 billion by selling conventional and Islamic bonds.

El Sewedy Cables Holding Co. fell 10 percent to 62.59 Egyptian pounds. The biggest publicly traded maker of cables in the Middle East had its so-called short-term rating cut to “neutral” from “accumulate” at EFG-Hermes Holding SAE because of slower economic growth and increased competition in the region.

The Kuwait Stock Exchange Index slid 2.3 percent, while the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index lost 2.9 percent. The Bahrain All Share Index dropped 0.5 percent. Jordan’s ASE General Index lost 2.9 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ayesha Daya in Dubai adaya1@bloomberg.net Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net.

German Stocks Advance, Paced by Metro, BASF and Adidas Shares

By Stefanie Haxel

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s benchmark DAX Index gained, led by Metro AG, BASF SE and Adidas AG.

The DAX rose 27.57, or 0.6 percent, to 4,343.71 as of 1:38 p.m. in Frankfurt, after falling as much as 0.8 percent earlier. The broader HDAX Index rose 0.7 percent.

Metro increased 1.15 euros, or 4.7 percent, to 25.54. Germany’s largest retailer will cut costs as part of a plan to raise profit by 1.5 billion euros ($2 billion) over the next four years, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.

BASF, the world’s largest chemical maker, climbed 68 cents, or 3 percent, to 23.36 euros. Adidas, the world’s second-largest sporting goods maker, added 68 cents, or 2.7 percent, to 25.62 euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stefanie Haxel in Frankfurt at shaxel@bloomberg.net.

U.K. Shares Rise; AstraZeneca, Imperial Tobacco Gain on Pound

By Sarah Jones

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks advanced as a drop in the pound sparked a rally in exporters, offsetting a continued sell off in banking shares.

AstraZeneca Plc and Imperial Tobacco Group Plc rose more than 2 percent as the pound tumbled against the U.S. dollar and euro, increasing the value of sales made overseas. IG Group Plc advanced 14 percent after saying first-half profit gained on increased short-term trading on currencies.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc plunged to the lowest since at least 1998 as Merrill Lynch & Co. said the lender has too little capital and will struggle with funding and bad assets.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index added 25.93, or 0.6 percent, to 4,134.4 in London at 12:48 p.m. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, a benchmark for European stocks, lost 0.7 percent. The FTSE All- Share Index gained 0.5 percent, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index dropped 1.3 percent.

“The U.K. is outperforming its European peers today which reflects the weakness we are seeing in the currency,” said Graham Secker, a U.K. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in London. “It’s a natural hedge.”

The pound breached $1.40 for the first time since 2001 and had its biggest drop against the euro in a month after the U.K.’s second bank-bailout plan in three months, announced yesterday, raised concern the global financial crisis is deepening.

AstraZeneca, the U.K.’s second-largest drugmaker which generated than 50 percent of its revenue in the Americas in 2007, increased 2.1 percent to 2,819 pence. Imperial Tobacco, which made just 8 percent of its revenue in the U.K. last year, climbed 2.8 percent to 1,960 pence. ICAP Plc jumped 4.6 percent to 267.25 pence. The world’s biggest broker of trades between banks generated 41 percent of its revenue in the Americas in 2008.

IG Group Gains

IG Group, owner of the IG Index financial-market betting brand, advanced 14 percent to 254 pence. Net income for the six months through November rose to 37.7 million pounds ($52.7 million) from 33.1 million pounds a year earlier. Revenue climbed 47 percent to 126.5 million pounds, slightly above company forecasts from November.

Lloyds, which completed the takeover of HBOS Plc yesterday, lost 23 percent to 49.8 pence, extending its 34 percent retreat in the previous session when banking stocks tumbled the most since 1985.

“The merger of HBOS and Lloyds TSB creates a bank which will face challenges on capital, funding and asset quality,” wrote Manus Costello, a London-based analyst at Merrill Lynch. “We expect Lloyds Banking to lose money in 2008, 2009 and 2010, largely a result of bad-debt provisions.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.

European Stocks Decline; Logitech, Invensys, BNP Paribas Drop

By Adam Haigh

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks declined for a second day, led by technology companies and banks, on concern earnings will deteriorate as the economic slump deepens.

Logitech International SA sank 10 percent after reporting profit and sales that missed analysts’ estimates. Invensys Plc slid 4.7 percent as the company predicted second-half earnings will stagnate. BNP Paribas SA and Lloyds Banking Group Plc retreated more than 9 percent as Societe Generale SA and Merrill Lynch & Co. analysts cited concerns over the banks’ capital.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 1.1 percent to 187.73 at 2:43 p.m. in London. The measure has declined 11 percent in the past ten days as companies from Deutsche Bank AG to Intel Corp. fueled concern the global recession will wipe out profit growth.

Earnings “are absolutely atrocious,” said Lucy MacDonald, chief investment officer of global equities at RCM UK Ltd., which has about $100 billion under management. “All the evidence we have from the economic to the corporate sector is that things are deteriorating,” she told Bloomberg Television.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 1.5 percent as State Street Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. plunged. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 2.2 percent as Elpida Memory Inc. retreated.

National benchmark indexes fell in all 18 western European markets except Austria. Germany’s DAX declined 0.2 percent as SAP AG retreated. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was little changed, while France’s CAC 40 Index lost 0.8 percent.

Analysts estimate profits at companies in the Stoxx 600 slumped 17 percent in 2008 and may decrease 1.4 percent this year, Bloomberg data show. Technology companies may post a 14 percent decline in 2009, according to the estimates.

Logitech, Invensys

Logitech tumbled 10 percent to 13.13 Swiss francs after the world’s biggest maker of computer mice reported a 70 percent slide in third-quarter profit.

Invensys sank 4.7 percent to 155.4 pence. Customers ran down inventories of appliance and machine electronics and extended plant closures, leaving third-quarter profitability “significantly” weaker at the controls division, the U.K. maker of controls that help run Whirlpool Corp. washing machines said.

SAP, the world’s biggest maker of business-management software, retreated 1.6 percent to 26.17 as Capital magazine reported the company will decline to give a 2009 sales forecast at its earnings press conference next week.

Elpida, Japan’s largest computer-memory chipmaker, decreased 5 percent to 533 yen after postponing its earnings announcement.

Earnings Outlook

BNP Paribas sank 9.6 percent to 24.715 euros. Analysts at Societe Generale said France’s largest bank may need to raise as much as 8 billion euros ($10.4 billion) as they lowered the recommendation on the shares to “sell.”

Analysts forecast earnings at financial companies in the Stoxx 600 will rise 42 percent in 2009 following a 59 percent slide last year, according to Bloomberg data. The benchmark index posted its worst annual slump on record in 2008 as more than $1 trillion in credit losses and writedowns eroded profits.

Lloyds, which completed the takeover of HBOS Plc yesterday, tumbled 27 percent to 47.5 pence on concern the lender has too little capital. Lloyds spokesman Shane O’Riordain today said it has a robust capital position and business is satisfactory.

“The merger of HBOS and Lloyds TSB creates a bank which will face challenges on capital, funding and asset quality,” London-based Merrill analyst Manus Costello wrote in a note.

Allied Irish

Allied Irish Banks Plc plummeted 30 percent to 42 cents. Chief Executive Officer Eugene Sheehy said in a message to employees that he believes the Dublin-based bank will remain independent. Ireland’s government last month said it would invest 2 billion euros in Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland Plc, the country’s biggest lenders.

Credit Suisse Group AG, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, slipped 6 percent to 23.7 francs.

Air France-KLM Group declined 7.4 percent to 7.974 euros after Europe’s biggest airline said it had a third-quarter loss because of lower premium-passenger traffic and a “strong decline” in cargo sales.

Burberry Group Plc rallied 12 percent to 230 pence. Britain’s biggest publicly traded luxury company said sales growth unexpectedly picked up and announced plans to cut jobs and spending.

Metro AG advanced 6.6 percent to 26.01 euros after Germany’s largest retailer said it will cut 15,000 jobs as part of a plan to increase profit by 1.5 billion euros over four years.

IG Group Holdings Plc climbed 9.5 percent to 243.25 pence. The owner of the IG Index financial-market betting brand said first-half sales gained 47 percent to 126.5 million pounds and trading in the second half remains “strong.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net.

Agrium, CN Rail, Loblaw, RIM, Suncor: Canadian Equity

By John Kipphoff

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual fluctuations in Canadian trading today. Stock symbols are in parentheses and prices are from yesterday’s close.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 0.9 percent to 8,841.48.

Fertilizer makers may be active after Citigroup Inc. analyst P.J. Juvekar gave Agrium Inc. (AGU CN) a “sell” rating and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT CN) a “hold” rating. Fertilizer sales may fall by 10 percent to 20 percent this year before a possible “robust recovery” in 2010, the New-York based analyst wrote in a note to clients today.

Agrium rose 1.1 percent to C$42.50. Potash fell 1.5 percent to C$89.25.

Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR CN): The nation’s largest railroad was cut to “neutral” from “buy” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. because it won’t escape the “headwinds of lower volume growth.” The shares fell 1.3 percent to C$42.

Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO CN): Canada will offer financial aid for Imperial Oil’s C$16.2 billion ($12.9 billion) Mackenzie natural-gas pipeline, including a sharing of the “risks and returns” from the project, Environment Minister Jim Prentice said. The shares fell 2.8 percent to C$38.70.

Loblaw Cos. (L CN): Canada’s biggest grocery chain was downgraded to “neutral” from “buy” by Vishal Shreedhar at UBS AG. Following a 36 percent gain since third-quarter results were announced in November, Loblaw’s valuation fairly reflects the benefits of the company’s restructuring and a potential privatization by the controlling Weston family, the Toronto-based analyst wrote in note to clients today. The shares fell 0.3 percent to C$36.61.

Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM CN): The maker of the BlackBerry handheld device was raised to “outperform” from “sector perform” by Mike Abramsky at RBC Capital Markets. RIM’s performance should exceed estimates, the analyst said in a note today. The shares were unchanged at C$63.75.

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU CN): The world’s second-largest oil- sands producer reported 16 percent more per-share profit for the fourth quarter than analysts estimated, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Telus Corp. (T CN): Canada’s second-largest phone company was downgraded to “underperform” from “buy” by Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Glen Campbell. The shares rose 3.6 percent to C$36.66.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Kipphoff in Toronto at jkipphoff@bloomberg.net.

Aracruz, Bradesco, Natura, Tam, VCP: Brazilian Equity Movers

By Paulo Winterstein

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies are having unusual price changes in Brazil trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and prices are as of 9:08 a.m. New York time. Preferred shares are usually the most-traded class of stock.

The Bovespa Index rose 0.3 percent to 38,940.10.

Aracruz Celulose SA (ARCZ6 BS) led declines on the index, losing 11 percent to 2.35 reais. The world’s biggest eucalyptus- pulp producer renegotiated part of its $2.63 billion debt with banks. The accord is “no magic bullet” and leaves Aracruz with “a huge debt load and high interest and amortization payments that will be difficult to meet,” Deutsche Bank analyst Josh Milberg wrote in a note to clients today.

Votorantim Celulose & Papel SA (VCPA4 BS) dropped 1.9 percent to 15.85 reais. Brazil’s third-biggest pulp maker agreed to pay 2.71 billion reais ($1.16 billion) to double its 28 percent stake in Aracruz.

Banco Bradesco SA (BBDC4 BS) rose for a second day, adding 0.6 percent to 21.36 reais. Brazil’s second-biggest non- government bank said it will raise its monthly dividend payments by 10 percent starting next month.

Natura SA (NATU3 BS) gained the most in a week, adding 2.5 percent to 19.85 reais. Brazil’s biggest cosmetics company is JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s “top pick” among Brazil’s consumer stocks, with “sales mix resilience being key to resist worsening economics” analyst Andrea Teixeira wrote.

Tam SA (TAMM4 BS) rose for the first time in three days, adding 1.1 percent to 18.30 reais. Brazil’s biggest airline rose as oil prices dropped below $33 a barrel. Second-largest airline Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (GOLL4 BS) increased 0.3 percent to 11.33 reais.

To contact the reporter on this story: Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net.

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Fall; State Street, Wells Fargo Drop

By Daniela Silberstein and Elizabeth Stanton

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures declined, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall for the first time in three days, on concern the deepening global recession will hurt profits.

State Street Corp., the largest money manager for institutions, tumbled 38 percent after fourth-quarter earnings dropped 71 percent. Wells Fargo & Co. declined 11 percent on an analyst’s prediction the bank will cut its dividend. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. fell as crude oil traded near a four- year low.

The S&P 500 is off to its second-worst start to a year, shattering the biggest rally since World War II, as analysts cut earnings estimates by a record 83 percentage points and companies signal worse to come.

“The market will remain nervous as we approach earnings announcements,” Chicuong Dang, a Paris-based analyst at KBL Richelieu Gestion, which has about $5.2 billion under management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Even if we know they won’t be good, we don’t yet know the amplitude.”

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in March fell 1.1 percent to 839.3 at 9:17 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 0.9 percent to 8,172. Nasdaq-100 Index futures decreased 0.7 percent to 1,189.25. U.S. stock markets were closed yesterday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

The S&P 500 fell 5.9 percent in the first 11 trading days of 2009, second only to last year’s 6.5 percent drop, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1928. The decline helped erase about half of a 24 percent rally since Nov. 20 as optimism that government spending would revive the economy evaporated.

Obama Inauguration

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index retreated 1.1 percent today, led by banks and technology companies. It fell 2 percent yesterday after Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc forecast the biggest-ever loss by a U.K. company. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 2.2 percent today.

Barack Obama will be inaugurated as the 44th U.S. president today, inheriting the most severe economic crisis since Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn in 76 years ago. The turmoil has dragged the world’s largest economies into recession, caused more than $1 trillion of losses at financial institutions and prompted a sell-off in global stock markets.

Treasuries fell for a second day on speculation Obama will sell record amounts of debt to battle the recession. The dollar strengthened for a second day against the euro.

State Street

State Street fell $13.70 to $22.65. The company in a Jan. 16 regulatory filing said it decided to “provide support” to stable value accounts managed by the Global Advisors unit after securities held by the funds declined to the point that “third- party guarantors considered terminating their financial guarantees.”

Wells Fargo, the biggest bank on the U.S. West Coast, fell $1.98 to $16.70. FBR Capital Markets analyst Paul Miller lowered his earnings estimates and price target, in addition to predicting a dividend cut.

Exxon, the largest U.S. oil company, slipped 1.2 percent to $77.10. Chevron, the second-largest, fell 1.7 percent to $70.50. Crude oil fell as much as 10 percent to $32.70 a barrel in New York on concern a global recession may deepen, eroding demand for energy.

ConocoPhillips sank 3.1 percent to $47.80. The second- largest U.S. refiner said it plans to cut 4 percent of its workforce and will take several writedowns in the fourth quarter as energy prices plunged.

Alcoa, Pfizer

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, sank 2.9 percent to $9.16. Aluminum declined for the seventh straight day in London, falling as much as 3.7 percent to $1,370 a ton, on speculation that demand will weaken as the housing slump worsens.

Pfizer Inc. lost 2.2 percent to $17.21. The world’s largest drugmaker said it failed to win U.S. approval to sell a treatment for women with weak bones. A clinical trial showed an increase in deaths.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm to convert to a bank, dropped 4.2 percent to $70. JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 6.7 percent to $21.30 in New York.

U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, according to New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted last year’s economic and stock-market meltdowns.

“The problems of Citi, Bank of America and others suggest the system is bankrupt,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today.

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. lost 6.6 percent to $38.40. Goldman Sachs downgraded shares of the designer of the U.S. Olympics team’s official uniform to “sell” from “neutral,” citing “a likely cautious outlook well below consensus.”

New York Times Co. added 1.9 percent to $6.53. The newspaper publisher received $250 million in financing from companies controlled by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim as the industry confronts plummeting advertising revenue and tighter credit markets.

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net. Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net

Bank of America, KeyCorp, New York Times: U.S. Equity

By Cristina Alesci

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual fluctuations in U.S. trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and prices are as of 9:05 a.m. in New York.

Banks fell after the U.K.’s second bank-bailout plan in three months raised concern the financial crisis is deepening. The government of Prime Minister Gordon Brown said it will spend an extra 100 billion pounds ($142 billion) to support banks and increase its stake in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS LN).

Bank of America Corp. (BAC US) dropped 9.7 percent to $6.48. Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK US) fell 14 percent to $19.74. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM US) retreated 6.9 percent to $21.25. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC US), which Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. said will probably cut its dividend during the first half of this year, lost 11 percent to $16.64.

ConocoPhillips (COP US) slipped 4 percent to $47.60. The second-largest U.S. refiner said it plans to cut 4 percent of its workforce and will take several writedowns in the fourth quarter, including one for $25.4 billion.

KeyCorp (KEY US): KeyCorp rose 2.6 percent to $6.48. The bank may more than double if the U.S. economy starts to recover and community banking picks up, Barron’s reported, citing analysts.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM US): The company and Vulcan Materials Co. (VMC US) may fall 20 percent or more as their dependence on commercial and residential buildings hurt their profitability and overshadow gains from the federal government’s increased infrastructure spending.

New York Times Co. (NYT US) added 4.5 percent to $6.70. The newspaper publisher received $250 million in financing from companies controlled by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim as the industry confronts plummeting advertising revenue and tighter credit markets.

Palm Inc. (PALM US) fell 6.4 percent to $7.40. The money- losing maker of the Treo and Centro mobile phones was downgraded to “neutral” from “overweight” by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE US) lost 1.7 percent to $17.21. The world’s largest drugmaker failed to win U.S. approval to sell a treatment for women with weak bones that may be linked to an increase in deaths.

Teppco Partners LP (TPP US): The oil and natural gas company said Chief Financial Officer William Manias resigned.

State Street Corp. (STT US) slid 38 percent to $22.47. The world’s largest money manager for institutions said 2009 operating profit will be little changed from last year after fourth quarter earnings fell 71 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Cristina Alesci in New York at calesci2@bloomberg.net.

Wakeup Call: Will Obama Inauguration Have An Positive Effect On Equity Markets? Probably Not

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Jan 20 09 08:20 GMT |

The RBS result and UK government intervention was the major story yesterday and will continue to drive markets lower today.

Calendar

Economic Data Releases
Country	Name	Time (GMT)	Expectation	Prior	Comment
UK	CPI MoM (DEC)	09:30	-0.9%	-0.1%	Deflation on its way?
GE	ZEW Survey (econ. Sentiment)	10:00	-43.1	-45.2
CA	Bank of Canada Rate (JAN)	14:00	1.00%	1.50%

What's going on?

The UK bank rescue package II announced yesterday showed how serious trouble UK banks are in. The UK government now owns Northern Rock, RBS and Barclays. Most likely are UK banks not the only ones in trouble.

Earnings expectations are being downgraded massively from analysts. Income will shrink 17% compared with a prediction in May stating a 35% growth. Expect earnings expectation to continue going lower from here.

Oil dropped significantly to 34 USD/bbl. on continued signs of a contracting economy. Seasonal cold weather are still supportive for the demand side.

FX

FX	Daily stance	Comment
EURUSD	0	1.3000 key psychological level and support area. Market to transition to range trading?
EURJPY	0/-	Near bottom of big range, could bounce a bit with big event risk, but prefer to sell.
USDJPY	0	90.00 is an important support level here – 90.80 is first resistance (21-day MA)
GBPUSD	0	1.4350 resistance now after break lower. GBP weakness very pronounced.
USDCAD	+	BoC today. Prefer upside, but risk of short term consolidation. 1.2675 key resistance

Equities

Equities	Daily stance	Comment
DAX	-	Key support at 4300. Sell the break and target 4150. Otherwise stay neutral.
FTSE	-	Sell at the break of 4082. Target 3903. S/L kept at 4150.
S&P500	-	50% fibo at 842. Sell at the break of 842 targeting 813. S/L kept at 857.
Nasdaq100	-
Nikkei225	-

Futures

Commodities	Daily Stance	Comment
Gold (XAUUSD)	0/+	Support at 825.0. Buy dips with stops below 820 and add above 850.
Silver (XAGUSD)	0	Support in 11.00 area. Look rangebound unless breaks above 11.75
Oil (CLG9)	0	40 dollars a barrel is a key psychological level nearby. May follow risk appetite.

Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer

Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained.

Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment.

If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations.

The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time.

In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis.

Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.

FX Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank | Jan 20 09 08:17 GMT |

EURUSD

Comment: Sliding below a very thin Ichimoku 'cloud' having given up almost 75% of December's rally. The Euro is oversold and momentum steadily bearish. Looking very unstable.

Strategy: Stand aside if possible; if not, attempt tiny longs at 1.3025; stop below 1.2900. Target 1.3335.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
1.3025 "	1.3104
1.3	1.32
1.2974	1.325
1.293	1.33
1.2845	1.3387*

GBPUSD

Comment: Dropping below the bottom of the downward-sloping 'wedge' formation to a low at 1.4132, Cable's lowest since March 2002. Surprisingly it is not especially oversold and on the Bank of England's index is holding above December's low point as other currencies (Russian rouble and Eastern European countries among others) weaken too. We shall watch for an imminent 'spike low'.

Strategy: Stand aside but if you really have to: attempt tiny longs at 1.4175; stop below 1.4040. First target 1.4500/1.4550.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
1.4132 "	1.425
1.409	1.43
1.4040*	1.44
1.3950/1.3930**	1.4441
1.3680*	1.4555

USDJPY

Comment: Stuck in the middle of the range since December and creeping sideways into an apex and the lower edge of the Ichimoku 'cloud'. Very difficult to see where it might go next.

Strategy: Trade the range between 90.00 and 91.50 keeping an open mind.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
90.08 "	90.7
89.74	91
89	91.33*
88.89	91.56
88.48*	92.3

EURJPY

Comment: Dropping from the bottom of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and the 9-day moving average, looking set to re-test trendline support. We expect it to hold again today although a brief break lower and 'spike low' some time this month cannot be ruled out.

Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 117.45; stop below 116.00. Target 119.75, maybe 120.75

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
117.00 "	118
116.5	118.82
116.24*	119.75
115.87	120
114.45 113.62**	120.75

Mizuho Corporate Bank

Disclaimer

The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies EURO

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Crown Forex | Jan 20 09 07:39 GMT |

The pair continued to move within the short term descending channel breaking the 1.3035 support level to record the low near the 1.2975 levels. We see the price currently retesting the support level that has been breached before continuing to decline to reach the key support for the descending channel at 1.2700. It is important to note that the pair is being oversold on omomentum indicators suggesting the possibility of heavy fluctuations but as far as 1.3035 level remains intact on the four hour charts, the trend remains to the downside.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2700 and the key resistance at 1.3440

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2700 and 1.2560

Support: 1.2940, 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2780, 1.2700
Resistance: 1.3035, 1.3080, 1.3110, 1.3190, 1.3245

Recommendation: Sell below 1.3035 with targets at 1.2900 and 1.2700 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.3140

GBP

Just as we expected, the pair reached the key support for the descending channel after breaching the neckline for the technical pattern at 1.4645 to complete the target. The 1.4285 support level was breached to allow the pair to reach levels near 1.4135 before rebounding in correctional movements. The 23.6% correction at 1.4310 is the closest correction level which is still above the broken support. This gives the opportunity for the pair to breach the previous support and return within the descending channel as it is also supported by momentum indicators showing the pair being oversold.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3600 and the key resistance at 1.4810

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3870 and 1.3600

Support: 1.4230, 1.4160, 1.4140, 1.4000, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.4310, 1.4370, 1.4415, 1.4505, 1.4585

Recommendation: Sell below 1.4270 with targets at 1.4140 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.4370

JPY

The pair did move towards the support level found at 89.50 after failing to correct to the 50% level. We see the possibility of the formation of a reversal signal to the downside with a neckline at 90.15 where breaching this level will allow the pair to break the minor support for the ascending channel at 89.60 before targeting 89.05. Momentum indicators show the pair being oversold whcih could halt the break of the neckline to the downside for some time but at the end, the possibility remains valid.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 88.45 and the key resistacne at 92.90

The general trend is to the downside a far as 102.10 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 90.00, 89.80, 89.05, 88.40, 88.25
Resistance: 90.55, 90.90, 91.15, 91.60, 92.30

Recommendation: Sell below 90.15 with targets at 89.05 and stop los with a four hour close at 90.80

CHF

Our expectations to breach the key support for the ascending channel at 1.1260 failed resulting in a rebound for the pair to incline towards the upside after trading near the above mentinued support. The pair is currently limited between the 1.1260 and the key resistance for the ascending channel at 1.1435 which could lead to the formation of a technical pattern that supports the downside direction if trading remains below 1.1325. This is confirmed as momentum indicators show the pair being overbought on the four hour charts.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0755 and the key resistance at 1.1805

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.1805 and 1.2000

Support: 1.1325, 1.1260, 1.1230, 1.1190, 1.1140
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1435, 1.1500, 1.1545, 1.1615

Recommendation: Sell the paive below 1.1325 with targets at 1.1125 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.1435

CAD

The pair continued to trade within the ascending channel yet failed to breach the support level found at 1.2410 as it breached the key resistance for the ascending channel at 1.2525 to build a solid base above it. The pair is currently near the breached resistance and as the pair is being overbought on momentum indicators, there is still a possibility to fall below the 1.2525 level once again.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2290 and the key resistance at 1.2840

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1780 remains intact with targets at 1.3305 and 1.3465

Support: 1.2525, 1.2490, 1.2460, 1.2400, 1.2370
Resistance: 1.2625, 1.2675, 1.2745, 1.2800, 1.2860

Recommendation: Buy the pair above 1.2525 with targets at 1.2675 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.2460

Crown Forex

disclaimer:The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk.

Finnish December Joblessness Rose to 6.1% on Recession Outlook

By Kati Pohjanpalo

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Finland’s unemployment rate rose to a six-month high in December as the prospect of a shrinking economy pushed companies to cut jobs and temporarily lay off people.

Joblessness increased to 6.1 percent from 6 percent in November and 6 percent a year earlier, Helsinki-based Statistics Finland said on its Web site today. The median estimate of five economists in a Bloomberg survey was for unemployment to be unchanged.

Global demand for Finnish goods is waning as Europe, the U.S. and Japan entered a recession simultaneously for the first time since World War II. Metso Oyj, the world’s biggest maker of rock crushers and paper machines, said yesterday it may cut as many as 1,400 jobs in Finland after clients closed paper mills in Europe and North America. Finland’s economy will shrink 1.2 percent this year, the European Commission said yesterday.

“It is our understanding that the new machine market will not return to the level of the recent years,” Metso’s Chief Executive Officer Jorma Eloranta said in a statement before today’s release.

Finnish companies have temporarily suspended more than 20,000 people in the first two weeks of this year, while the number of job cuts doubled last year to 25,000, according to statistics compiled by the Central Organization of Labor Unions SAK. Last year, Finland’s OMX Helsinki 25 Index fell 50 percent as stocks tumbled worldwide.

In December, there were 7,000 more people in work than in the same month a year earlier, the statistics office said. Seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate was 6.6 percent, up from 6.5 percent the month before.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kati Pohjanpalo in Helsinki at kpohjanpalo@bloomberg.net

Japan’s Convenience-Store Sales Rise the Most in Eight Years

By Toru Fujioka and Maki Shiraki

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s convenience-store sales rose at the fastest pace in eight years in 2008 as a new law restricting access to vending machines sent smokers to 7-Eleven and other outlets.

Sales rose 6.7 percent to 7.86 trillion yen ($87 billion) from a year earlier, the Japan Franchise Association said in Tokyo today.

Smokers flocked to convenience stores to buy tobacco and other goods after a law in July required a smart card known as Taspo to purchase cigarettes at vending machines. The recession is also drawing budget-conscious consumers to the shops, where they can buy essentials without traveling far, analysts said.

“Besides the Taspo effect, convenience stores do well in a recession,” said Dairo Murata, a retail analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Tokyo. “Consumers don’t want to spend a lot and go far to shop.”

Seven & I Holdings Co., Japan’s biggest convenience store operator, expects profits and sales to rise this year in part because of increased cigarette sales.

“This is the turning point,” said Takeshi Niinami, chief executive officer at the Lawson Inc., the nation’s second- largest convenience store operator. “Households aren’t keen to purchase luxury goods anymore. They purchase daily goods little by little.”

Convenience-store sales exceeded department-store sales for the first time. Department store sales dropped 4.3 percent to 7.4 trillion yen, extending the longest losing streak in 12 years, the Japan Department Store Association reported yesterday.

Eroding Assets

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average declined a record 42 percent last year, eroding assets of wealthy households who are the main customers for department stores.

Department stores are facing increasing competition in areas they once dominated such as clothing sales, which account for 37 percent of their revenue.

Fast Retailing Co., the operator of the Uniqlo casual clothing chain, posted record monthly sales with a 32 percent increase in November. Rakuten Inc. in November reported a 22 percent increase in its revenue from January to September last year.

“Those various shopping venues such as Uniqlo and Rakuten are getting consumers from department stores as they provide for a cheaper and easy shopping,” Murata said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

Dubai Cuts Diesel Price as Crude Oil Falls, Khaleej Times Says

By Ayesha Daya

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai’s retailers will cut the price of diesel by 4.4 percent to 10.85 dirhams ($2.95) as crude oil prices decline, Khaleej Times reported.

Emirates National Oil Co., Emirates Petrochemical Products Co. and Emirates General Petroleum Corp. will reduce the price from Jan. 21, the newspaper reported, citing the companies. Diesel prices have come down 44 percent since July when the fuel was sold at a record 19.25 dirhams a gallon.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ayesha Daya in Dubai adaya1@bloomberg.net

Roubini Sees Oil Price at $30 to $40 a Barrel in 2009

By Henry Meyer

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic and stock market meltdowns, said oil prices will trade between $30 and $40 a barrel this year.

“I see oil remaining throughout 2009 in the range of $30 to $40” a barrel, Roubini said in Dubai today.

Slowing world demand, reduced tension in the Middle East and settlement of Russia’s gas dispute with Ukraine could push prices toward last month’s four-year low of $32.40, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday.

Crude oil for February traded at $33.90 a barrel, down 7.2 percent, in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:38 a.m. Dubai time. The contract, which expires today, fell as low as $33.89 yesterday, when floor trading was closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

Oil has tumbled 77 percent from its July high of $147.27 as the global economy sinks into recession, straining the budgets of crude exporters. Saudi Arabia, Oman and Dubai, the second-largest sheikdom in the United Arab Emirates, have said they will post budget deficits this year. HSBC Holdings Plc said this week it is forecasting an average oil price of $45 a barrel for this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Dubai at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net

Gladstone Coal Port Cost May Drop From A$4 Billion, CEO Says

By Jesse Riseborough

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gladstone Port Corp., manager of the world’s fourth-largest coal export terminal, said the A$4 billion ($2.6 billion) cost estimate of a planned expansion may decline because of falling costs for construction materials.

The cost “is under review because what we had seen during the last two years was a significant rise in capex and now we have already seen some significant reductions,” Leo Zussino, Gladstone Port chief executive officer, said today in a phone interview from Brisbane, Australia. “The guys are working on a review at the moment to get the costs of stage one down again.”

The cost of construction materials including steel has declined as the global recession forces mining companies to cut as much as $193 billion in spending, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. Prices for coking coal, which jumped to a record last year, may slump 63 percent this year as plummeting demand for steel curbs requirements, Macquarie Group Ltd. said yesterday.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, Rio Tinto Group and Xstrata Plc are part of a 16-company group that’s agreed to build the Wiggins Island terminal, scheduled to open by 2012. The port is located 525 kilometers (326 miles) from the Queensland capital, Brisbane. The group expected to secure financing for the project this year, the state government said last year.

“Whilst this uncertainty with respect to the short term outlook remains, I doubt whether they will make any decisions like” shelving development plans for the Wiggins Island coal terminal, Zussino said.

The Central Queensland Port Authority operates the port, which includes the Barney Point terminal and R.G. Tanna terminal. A A$780 million expansion of R.G. Tanna was completed last year, boosting its capacity by 30 million tons to 70 million tons.

The proposed Wiggins Island investment group also includes Anglo American Plc, Aquila Resources Ltd., Felix Resources Ltd., Macarthur Coal Ltd., Wesfarmers Ltd. and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net