Economic Calendar

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Crude Oil Rises as Dollar Retreats, Spurring Commodity Buying

By Grant Smith

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose as the U.S. currency retreated from its highest in six weeks against the euro, spurring investor demand for dollar-priced commodities.

Oil earlier declined on forecasts a U.S. Energy Department report will probably show that crude stockpiles, 10 percent above their five-year average, increased for the 15th time in the past 17 weeks. U.S. inventories probably rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

“We’re seeing oil rebound this morning as the dollar pulls back,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst with VTB Capital in London. “The softer dollar normally underpins commodity prices as they become relatively cheaper for foreign investors and a hedge against inflation.”

Crude oil for March delivery advanced as much as $1.15, or 2.8 percent, to $41.99 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $41.55 a barrel at 1:32 p.m. London time.

The February contract expired yesterday, up $2.23, or 6.1 percent, at $38.74 a barrel in the biggest gain since Dec. 31. Sales volume for the contract was less than March’s as traders avoided taking supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for Nymex futures.

“Oil will not stay as cheap as it is, we believe the downward trend will turn very soon,” Georg Schuh, chief investment officer of Deutsche Bank Advisors, said in a television interview in Frankfurt. “Investment demand came down with the deleveraging of many hedge funds. The long-term trend of rising demand in emerging countries, however, is intact.”

Inventory Report

The dollar traded for $1.2919 per euro as of 1:23 p.m. in London, having earlier climbed to $1.2848, its strongest level against the single European currency since Dec. 9.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly inventory report tomorrow, a day later than usual because of the Jan. 19 Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

“We can see oversupply in the market, it’s obvious that inventories are very high,” said Sintje Diek, an analyst at HSH Nordbank in Hamburg. “For the coming months, oil demand will be weak, and then recover at the end of the year.”

Crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, where West Texas Intermediate traded on the Nymex is stored, climbed 2.5 percent to 33 million barrels during the week of Jan. 9, the Energy Department said last week. It was the highest since at least April 2004, when the department began keeping records for the location. Total capacity there is 47.7 million barrels, according to data from Lipow Oil Associates LLC.

Brent crude oil for March settlement traded for $43.66 a barrel, 4 cents higher on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 1:23 p.m. local time.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net





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Arab Stocks Drop on Real Estate Concern; Emaar, Arabtec Retreat

By Haris Anwar and Michael Patterson

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Arab stocks fell, sending the Dubai index to the lowest close since June 2004, as a report showing the emirate’s real-estate slump deepened last month heightened concern the region’s economy will contract.

Emaar Properties PJSC, Aldar Properties PJSC and Arabtec Holding Co. fell more than 9 percent after HSBC Holdings Plc said Dubai real-estate prices dropped 23 percent from a September peak. Emirates NBD PJSC, the United Arab Emirates’ biggest bank, lost 5 percent. Egyptian stocks also declined.

“We’re seeing a sharp slowdown in real-estate activity, and that is the main pillar of growth in this region,” said Chamel Fahmy, senior regional sales trader at Beltone Securities Brokerage in Dubai. “The long-term foreign and institutional investors are gloomy on the profit and economic outlook.”

Gulf shares lost more than half their value since July as the global credit freeze halted a fourfold surge in Dubai home prices at the same time as a 70 percent drop in oil eroded export revenue. Amlak Finance PJSC and Tamweel PJSC, Dubai’s two-largest mortgage lenders, were taken over by a U.A.E. government-owned bank last year after the financial crisis squeezed their access to credit.

The Dubai Financial Market General Index tumbled 5.5 percent to 1,462.11. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index lost 5.1 percent, while Kuwait’s index weakened 1.4 percent.

World’s Biggest Drop

Foreign direct investment in developing nations will drop by $180 billion, or 31 percent, this year as a global recession prompts multinationals to cut spending on factories and mines, according to the World Bank.

Qatar’s DSM 20 Index lost 8.3 percent, Oman’s Muscat Securities Market Index tumbled 6.3 percent and Egypt’s CASE 30 Index slumped 6 percent, for the steepest declines among 89 stock indexes tracked by Bloomberg globally. The Bahrain All Share Index dropped 1.7 percent.

Emaar, the U.A.E.’s biggest publicly traded real-estate developer, declined 9.8 percent to 1.85 dirhams as HSBC cut the builder’s share-price estimate by 39 percent. Aldar retreated 9.6 percent to 2.63 dirhams, the lowest close since listing in April 2005. Arabtec, the construction company building the world’s tallest tower in Dubai, fell 9.5 percent to 1.14 dirhams.

Dubai property prices dropped after banks cut lending and sellers offered discounts as a result of the global economic slowdown, HSBC said.

Egyptian Decline

“The discount of agreed to advertised prices has deepened, indicating market distress,” the bank’s analysts including Majed Azzam and David Lepper wrote in the report. “Early 2009 data suggests further weakness.” Property prices in December rose 19 percent compared with the year-earlier period, the note said.

Saudi Telecom Co. slumped 10 percent to 45.9 riyals after the Arab world’s largest phone company said fourth-quarter profit declined 62 percent on currency losses. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose 0.3 percent.

National Bank of Bahrain, the oldest lender in the country, dropped 9.1 percent, the most in a month, to 0.6 dinar after it said full-year profit declined a record 17 percent as a result of the global financial crisis.

Bassim Arida, the director of international sales at Cairo Capital Securities in Cairo, said Egypt’s market decline was exacerbated by overseas investors pulling their money out of the region.

“The selloff has been triggered by redemptions from investors abroad that started in mid-January because of the global financial crisis,” Arida said. The CASE 30 Index has lost 20 percent in the past 11 days.

-- Editors: Claudia Maedler, Ralph Johnston.

To contact the reporter on this story: Haris Anwar in Dubai on Hanwar2@bloomberg.net





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Pessimism Wanes, Investors Hoard Cash, Merrill Says

By Sarah Jones

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Concerted efforts by central banks and policy makers have helped lift global investor sentiment this month, even so money managers continue to hoard cash near levels not seen since 2001, a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey showed.

Pessimism on global growth has more than halved in the last three months, according to the survey of managers who collectively manage $597 billion. Twenty-four percent expect a weaker economy over the next 12 months, compared to 65 percent in October.

“Investors are long on hope but short on conviction,” said Gary Baker, head of equity strategy for Europe, Africa and the Middle East at a Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch press briefing in London. “People want to be optimistic. There is still huge darkness out there, particularly in Europe.”

The MSCI World Index is up almost 6 percent since tumbling to a five-year low on Nov. 20, as the Federal Reserve slashed borrowing costs to as low as zero percent, and the Bank of England cut interest rates to a level not seen since its founding in 1694.

The benchmark of 23 nations had rebound as much as 23 percent before companies from Alcoa Inc. to Deutsche Bank AG fueled concern the global recession will wipe out profit growth.

Even so, earnings expectations and risk appetite has improved from last year, the survey of 205 fund managers showed. A net 55 percent expect to see further deterioration in earnings in January, that’s up from a low of 71 percent in November.

Cash held in investor portfolios remained at the highest levels since 2001, with 44 percent of those surveyed “overweight” in the asset class.

“The fear factor remains,” said Baker. Investors “have firepower to act, but are unconvinced by the modest recent equity rally, suggesting it is a bear market rally in both sentiment and markets.”

Investors preferred emerging markets and Japanese regions at the expense of the U.S. European equities remained the least favored by money managers.

Pessimism on banks continued to rise as investors remained overweight in so-called defensive stocks including pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and consumer staples.

The survey of 205 fund managers was conducted between Jan. 9 and Jan. 15. As of this month, Merrill Lynch has changed the format of its survey and will no longer publish full historical data.

For Related News and Information:

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.





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U.K. Stocks Fall to Two-Month Low; Barclays, Lloyds Lead Drop

By Alexis Xydias and Sarah Jones

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks slid to a two-month low, led by Barclays Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc as concern deepened the country’s lending industry will need further capitalization.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index fell 66.41, or 1.6 percent, to 4,024.99 at 12.37 a.m. in London, headed for its lowest close since Nov. 21. The FTSE All-Share Index lost 1.6 percent, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index dropped 3.1 percent.

Barclays, the U.K. bank that turned down government funding last year, dropped 20 percent to 58.5 pence, after plunging 61 percent in the previous six sessions. Lloyds, the country’s biggest mortgage lender, declined 17 percent to 37.1 pence.

The FTSE All-Share Banks Index fell for a sixth day, having slumped 37 percent in the period, as investors speculate banks may need to take more writedowns or the government may have to nationalize one or more of them. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc lost two thirds of its value on Jan. 19 after forecasting the biggest loss ever reported by a U.K. company and the government was forced to raise its stake in the bank.

“There is little doubt that the banking system is wilting and the government and the Bank of England seem to be running out of options,” said David Buik, a London-based market analyst at BGC Partners in London. “Sentiment is acrid and confidence is zero rated.”

Prime Minister Gordon Brown this week gave the Bank of England unprecedented powers to buy securities and unveiled a 100-billion pound ($140 billion) bailout for banks.

U.K. unemployment rose at the second-fastest pace since 1991 in December as the worsening slump prompted companies from retailers to automakers to cut jobs, the Office for National Statistics said today.

Bailout

Irish banks also fell. Bank of Ireland Plc dropped 13 percent to 35 cents. Allied Irish Banks Plc retreated 6 percent to 42 cents.

The Irish government said Jan. 16 it would seize control of Anglo Irish Bank Corp. following a scandal that forced the resignations of its chief executive officer and chairman. Three days later, Brian Goggin, CEO of Bank of Ireland, said he will retire a year early following a bailout announced in December that also included Allied Irish Banks.

The following stocks also rose or fell in London and Dublin. Stock symbols are in parentheses:

African Copper Plc (ACU LN) plunged 0.5 pence, or 33 percent, to 1 pence. The company mothballed a mine and said it needs $15 million in financing to remain a “going concern.”

Autonomy Corp. (AU/ LN) rose 31.5 pence, or 3.2 percent, to 1,007 pence. The U.K.’s second-biggest software maker, said fourth-quarter profit more than doubled boosted by sales to banks.

Flying Brands Ltd. (FBDU LN) dropped 0.5 pence, or 1.6 percent, to 31 pence. The U.K. mail-order retailer that delivers flowers and collectibles cut its 2008 profit forecast after “flat” sales.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alexis Xydias in London at axydias@bloomberg.net; Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.





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Stocks in Europe, Asia Decline; U.S. Index Futures Advance

By Adam Haigh

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia fell, sending the MSCI World Index lower for a third straight day, as concern deepened the global recession will erode profits. U.S. index futures advanced.

Barclays Plc and KBC Groep NV tumbled at least 20 percent amid speculation banks may need more capital. ThyssenKrupp AG, Germany’s largest steelmaker, declined 1.7 percent as Morgan Stanley advised clients to sell shares, saying 2009 could be the worst year for the industry on record. China Life Insurance Co., the nation’s biggest insurer, sank 7.5 percent after saying 2008 profit may have fallen by at least 50 percent.

The MSCI World lost 5.15, or 0.6 percent, to 817.46 at 1:33 p.m. in London. The measure has dropped 11 percent this year as companies from Alcoa Inc. to Deutsche Bank AG fueled concern the global recession will wipe out profit growth.

“We will doubtless see more capital having to be ploughed into banks,” said Andy Lynch, who oversees about $10 billion as a fund manager at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in London and has an “underweight” position on the industry. “It’s been an atrocious quarter for most banks.”

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.8 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 2 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.8 percent as International Business Machines Corp. forecast annual profit that beat analysts’ estimates.

Treasuries fell for a third day as traders added to bets inflation will quicken after President Barack Obama called on Americans to rebuild the economy. His economic team is pushing to complete a bank-rescue plan that can be twinned with the $825 billion stimulus package being negotiated with Congress, people familiar with the deliberations said.

Record Drop

The MSCI World has extended last year’s record tumble, erasing more than two thirds of a 23 percent rally since Nov. 20 as optimism that government measures and interest-rate cuts would revive the global economy evaporated.

In the U.K., unemployment rose at the second-fastest pace since 1991 in December as the worsening recession prompted companies from retailers to automakers to cut jobs. The pound fell to a record low against the yen and the weakest since 2001 versus the dollar.

Barclays, the U.K. lender that turned down government funding last year, lost 20 percent to 58.4 pence. The shares have plunged 62 percent this month, valuing the London-based company at 4.9 billion pounds ($6.7 billion).

‘Nationalization’

“One solution for Barclays is nationalization and that’s a huge concern,” said Schroder’s Lynch.

KBC, Belgium’s biggest bank, retreated 33 percent to 6.5 euros, bringing the four-day slump to 68 percent. The Belgian government asked a panel of experts to draw up a report on the current situation of Belgian banks and may take “coherent” measures based on the report, according to a statement today.

Analysts forecast earnings at financial companies in the Stoxx 600 will rise 42 percent in 2009 following a 59 percent slide last year, according to Bloomberg data. The benchmark index posted its worst annual slump on record in 2008 as more than $1 trillion in credit losses and writedowns eroded profits.

“The fourth quarter has been horrible so far,” said Philippe Gijsels, a Brussels-based senior structured-product strategist at Fortis Global Markets. “A lot of companies are trying to cope with a new reality,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

‘Worst Year’

ThyssenKrupp retreated 1.7 percent to 16.43 euros after Morgan Stanley lowered its recommendation to “underweight” from “equal weight.”

“2009 is shaping up to be the worst year for the industry on our records,” London-based Morgan Stanley analyst Ephrem Ravi wrote in a note to clients today.

Angang Steel Co., China’s second-biggest steelmaker, plummeted 13 percent to HK$6.90 after saying earnings last year more than halved.

China Life slumped 7.5 percent to HK$20.30. Allianz SE, Germany’s biggest insurer, slid 4.6 percent to 57.31 euros.

UBS AG cut its recommendation for EasyJet Plc and Air France-KLM Group to “sell” from “neutral,” saying in a note to clients “the global recession will mean higher unemployment and fewer passengers.”

EasyJet, Europe’s second-biggest discount airline, retreated 2.6 percent to 258 pence. Air France-KLM, the region’s biggest carrier, sank 1.6 percent to 7.67 euros.

Technology Shares

Analysts estimate a 21 percent decline in profits for travel and leisure companies in 2009, following a 23 percent slump in 2008, Bloomberg data show.

Technology stocks were led higher by Ericsson AB and IBM. Ericsson rallied 13 percent to 63 kronor as the world’s largest maker of wireless networks said fourth-quarter net income was 3.89 billion kronor ($460 million) on sales of 67 billion kronor and plans to deepen cost reductions and eliminate about 5,000 more jobs.

IBM added 3.7 percent to $85 in pre-market trading in New York. Net income will climb to at least $9.20 a share in 2009, IBM said yesterday. That topped the $8.75 average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Fourth-quarter profit also exceeded projections, even as sales decreased.

BlackRock Inc. slipped 4.6 percent to $103.44 in early New York trading after the largest publicly traded U.S. asset manager said fourth-quarter earnings fell 84 percent as declines in stock and bond markets cut fees.

Concern that stock losses will deepen remains elevated. The benchmark for European options, the VStoxx Index, added 2.2 percent to 54.72, for a 28 percent increase since the beginning of the year. The gauge, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, surged to 87.51 in October, the highest since at least 2001, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net





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Cox Quits at SEC, Leaves Schapiro to Restore Clout After Madoff

By Jesse Westbrook

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Christopher Cox stepped down as U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, leaving behind a demoralized agency that failed to spot Bernard Madoff’s alleged fraud and had its role diminished by the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

His resignation took effect yesterday, agency spokesman John Nester said. During Cox’s 3 1/2-year tenure, the SEC has been criticized by lawmakers, investors and its own inspector general as lacking aggressiveness and being deferential to Wall Street banks. President Barack Obama, a Democrat, picked Mary Schapiro, the head of the U.S. brokerage industry’s self- regulator, to succeed the Republican Cox.

“I respect Chris Cox, but there’s no question that the commission has been much too passive in area after area under his leadership,” said Harvey Goldschmid, a former Democratic SEC commissioner who remains in contact with agency employees. “The morale problems and the lack of public regard for the agency must be immediately addressed by Mary Schapiro,” said Goldschmid, a law professor at Columbia University in New York.

The agency lost clout in March when the Federal Reserve rescued Bear Stearns and began lending to and examining investment banks regulated by the SEC. Its domain shrank further in September after Lehman declared bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch & Co. sold itself to Bank of America Corp., and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley became Fed-regulated commercial banks.

Lawmakers’ Criticism

Another blow came in December when Cox, 56, admitted the SEC missed Madoff’s alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme even though it had received “credible and specific” complaints about the New York-based money manager for at least a decade.

That revelation prompted criticism from Democrats and Republicans at a Jan. 5 meeting of the House Financial Services Committee. Representative Ron Paul, a Texas Republican, questioned whether the SEC should be eliminated altogether.

“He may go down as the unluckiest of the SEC chairmen,” said Robert Hillman, who teaches securities law at the University of California, Davis. “He was slow to recognize the deteriorating position of brokerage firms. In that sense, he bears joint responsibility with the secretary of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve chairman.”

Republican Kathleen Casey, the most senior member of the commission that oversees the agency, is in line to serve as acting chairman until the Senate confirms Cox’s successor, Nester said. Obama could instead ask one of the SEC’s two Democratic commissioners, Elisse Walter or Luis Aguilar, to fill the seat temporarily, Nester said.

Donaldson’s Legacy

Cox replaced William Donaldson as SEC chairman in August 2005 after representing California’s Orange County in the U.S. House of Representatives for 17 years.

Donaldson, a former chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, stepped down after he frustrated fellow Republican commissioners by subjecting companies to multimillion-dollar fines and trying to impose new regulations on mutual funds and hedge funds. He also angered business groups, which complained to President George W. Bush’s administration after Donaldson tried to give shareholders more power to pick corporate directors.

Under Cox, who was offered the SEC job by Vice President Dick Cheney, public fights among Democratic and Republican commissioners stopped and enforcement penalties declined.

Unanimous Approvals

SEC commissioners approved unanimously every rule that came before them during Cox’s first 22 months as chairman. In fiscal 2008, the agency extracted about $1 billion of fines and illegal profits from companies and individuals after garnering $1.6 billion in 2007. Penalties exceeded $3 billion in each of the three years preceding 2007.

Cox’s focus on calming the waters stoked concerns that the SEC had become inactive just as Wall Street’s biggest companies were increasing trading in derivatives and complex securities backed by mortgages, Hillman said.

“If you wait until you get consensus, sometimes nothing ever happens,” he said. “Especially in a period of financial distress, consensus may not be the best operating procedure.”

Cox urged a technology overhaul at the SEC aimed at making corporate profit and revenue statements more useful to investors. He also tried to cut compliance costs stemming from the Sarbanes-Oxley Act after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation’s biggest business lobbying group, said the law’s accounting requirements were prompting companies to list shares overseas.

‘21st Century’ Focus

Cox “came to the commission wanting to focus on bringing the SEC into the 21st century, making the U.S. more globally competitive by getting rid of burdensome regulations and making the agency more technologically sophisticated,” said Donald Langevoort, a former SEC attorney who teaches securities regulation at Georgetown University in Washington. “Like so many of his predecessors, that agenda ran up against unprecedented cataclysmic events.”

Global stock markets began swooning in August 2007 after banks saddled with illiquid subprime-mortgage securities stopped lending to each other. A year later, with financial companies still facing asset writedowns, Cox banned short-selling of U.S. banks, insurers and securities firms.

A short sale takes place when an investor borrows stock and sells it, aiming to profit by repaying the loan with shares bought at a lower price. The SEC imposed its prohibition after public lobbying by Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer John Mack and New York Senators Charles Schumer and Hillary Clinton, Obama’s pick to head the U.S. State Department.

Hedge Funds

The Sept. 19 SEC action drew fire from hedge funds, which accused the agency of protecting companies whose shares had plunged because of poor business decisions and over- concentration in mortgage bonds.

Cox, in a Washington Post interview published Dec. 24, said the ban was the biggest mistake of his tenure. He told the Post he made the decision under pressure from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. The prohibition lapsed Oct. 8.

Cox also deflected criticism over the SEC’s failure in the Madoff investigation. In a Dec. 16 statement issued by the agency, Cox said he was “deeply troubled” that his enforcement staff never sought subpoena power to probe Madoff or brought tips about alleged wrongdoing to the attention of commissioners.

‘Shifting Blame’

“It was viewed this time as him shifting blame,” said Marc Steinberg, a former SEC enforcement attorney who now teaches law at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. “The staff has some responsibility, but the culture came from the top.”

Congress created the SEC in 1934 to restore investor confidence and stem Wall Street abuses blamed for causing the Great Depression. The agency’s weakened state means Schapiro, CEO of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, will have to fight to make sure the SEC’s 75th anniversary isn’t its last, said Lynn Turner, a former SEC chief accountant.

“The SEC is in worse shape today than the French army was after its defeat at Waterloo,” he said. “Congress may look to some other agency to regulate, which would be to the detriment of investors.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net.





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Kinross, Precision, TMX, Viterra, WestJet: Canada Stock Preview

By John Kipphoff

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual fluctuations in Canadian trading today. Stock symbols are in parentheses and prices are from yesterday’s close.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index dropped 3.8 percent to 8,504.93.

Bio-Extraction Inc. (BXI CN): The producer of protein extracts and animal feeds from oilseeds was rated “buy” in new coverage by Lawrence Casse at Loewen, Ondaatje, McCutcheon Ltd. The Toronto-based analyst set a 12-month share-price target of C$1.10. The shares fell 5.6 percent to 42 cents.

Brampton Brick Ltd. (BBL/A CN): The brick manufacturer said it will write down the value of its landscape products business in the fourth quarter by C$6.7 million ($5.3 million), because of economic conditions in its Ontario and Michigan markets. The move will cut net income by about C$6 million, or 55 cents a share, Brampton Brick said in a statement carried on Marketwire. The shares dropped 4.6 percent to C$5.25.

Centamin Egypt Ltd. (CEE CN): The gold explorer drawn to the Egypt by a 3,000-year-old map agreed to sell 92.3 million shares at C$0.65 apiece, raising C$60 million to fund the development of its Sukari Gold Project. The share offering price is 12 percent less than yesterday’s close. The shares rose 1.4 percent to 74 cents.

InterOil Corp. (IOL CN): The developer of Papua New Guinea’s first liquefied natural gas facility will be removed from the S&P/TSX after the close of trading on Jan. 27, S&P said in a statement. InterOil shares fell 13 percent to C$22.13 after saying that it decided to delist from the Toronto Stock Exchange to reduce the burden of maintaining multiple listings.

Kinross Gold Corp. (K CN): Canada’s third-largest producer of the precious metal plans to raise as much as $414.6 million in a share sale to help pay for recent acquisitions. The company agreed to sell more than 24 million shares, assuming the underwriters exercise an overallotment option, for about $17.25 apiece. The shares rose 5.1 percent to C$23.11.

Precision Drilling Trust (PD-U CN): Canada’s largest oil and gas drilling services company cut its cash distribution to 4 cents per unit from 13 cents on declining rig demand. Precision said the distribution decrease reflects focus on balance-sheet strength and a debt-reduction program. The shares fell 7.7 percent to C$7.52.

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU CN): The second-largest oil-sands producer was cut to “outperform” from “strong buy” by Justin Bouchard at Raymond James & Associates. The Calgary-based analyst cited Suncor’s deferral yesterday of its oilsands expansion projects and higher-than-expected costs per barrel of production as a reason for the downgrade, according to a note to clients today. The shares dropped 16 percent to C$22.10.

TMX Group Inc. (X CN): The owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange was raised to “neutral” from “sell” by John Aiken at Dundee Securities. Fourth-quarter earnings later this month may be much better than estimated because trading has been elevated due to market volatility and financial companies’ shares sales, the Toronto-based analyst said in a note to clients today. The shares fell 2.8 percent to C$28.90.

Viterra Inc. (VT CN): Canada’s largest grain handler reported more than twice the per-share profit for the fourth- quarter than analysts estimated, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The shares fell 4 percent to C$8.20.

Westjet Airlines Ltd. (WJA CN): Canada’s second-biggest carrier was cut to “neutral” from “buy” by Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Michael Linenberg. The stock is close to Merrill’s 12-month target of C$15 and it is “prudent to take a step back” given concerns about the economic outlook, the New York- based analyst wrote in a note to clients today. WestJet rose 1 percent to C$14.23.

Linenberg also lowered his price target on Air Canada (AC/B CN), the nation’s largest airline, to C$4.50 from C$7. Air Canada added 3.8 percent to C$2.47.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Kipphoff in Montreal at jkipphoff@bloomberg.net.





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U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise; Citigroup, Bank of America Gain

By Daniela Silberstein and Elizabeth Stanton

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures gained, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rebound from a two-month low, on speculation a bank-rescue plan from President Barack Obama will shore up financial companies.

Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp, the biggest U.S. banks by assets, surged more than 6 percent. International Business Machines Corp. climbed 4.9 percent after its 2009 profit forecast topped analysts’ estimates. McDonald’s Corp. rose after being added to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s “conviction buy” list.

“Our guess is by the year-end, that the reflation going on with the monetary policy, the fiscal policy, the decline in the price of oil, all that reflation will overcome the deflationary forces, and we’ll have a somewhat higher market,” Robert Doll, who oversees about $300 billion as chief investment officer for global equities at BlackRock Inc., told Bloomberg Television.


Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in March rose 1.1 percent to 814.6 at 9:14 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 68 points, or 0.9 percent, to 8,013. Nasdaq-100 Index futures climbed 0.5 percent to 1,148.5.

U.S. stocks sank yesterday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst Inauguration Day decline, as speculation banks must raise more capital pushed financial shares to an almost 14-year low. The S&P 500 is off to its worst start to a year, shattering the biggest rally since World War II as analysts cut earnings estimates by a record 83 percentage points and companies signal worse to come.

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropped 0.5 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 2 percent.

Bank Rescue

Treasuries fell for a third day as traders added to bets deflation will become less of a concern after Obama called on Americans to rebuild the economy.

Obama meets with his economic advisers today. The new president’s team is pushing to complete a bank-rescue plan that can be twinned with the $825 billion stimulus package being negotiated with Congress to alleviate the deepening financial crisis.

While full details of the rescue haven’t been settled yet, people familiar with the deliberations said the package is likely to include a $50 billion-plus program to stem foreclosures, fresh injections of capital into banks and steps to deal with toxic assets clogging lenders’ balance sheets.

Timothy Geithner, Obama’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, plans to call for “reform” of the government’s main financial- rescue program and quick action to revive the economy, according to remarks prepared for delivery at his confirmation hearing at 10 a.m. in Washington.

Banks Rally

Citigroup, the U.S. bank that received a government-backed capital injection of $20 billion in November, surged 11 percent to $3.10 in trading before the open of exchanges in New York. Bank of America, the biggest U.S. lender by assets, rose 6.7 percent to $5.44. JPMorgan Chase & Co. advanced 4.3 percent to $18.86.

IBM added $4.02 to $86. The biggest computer-services provider posted fourth-quarter profit of $4.43 billion, or $3.28 a share, surpassing analysts’ estimates, as the top provider of computer services coped with a worldwide technology slump by cutting overhead costs and adding products.

McDonalds gained 74 cents to $57.81. The world’s largest restaurant company was upgraded by Goldman Sachs based on its “ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations over the next couple quarters.”

BlackRock Tumbles

BlackRock Inc. slid 5.5 percent to $97.78. The largest publicly traded U.S. asset manager said fourth-quarter earnings fell 84 percent as losses in stock and bond markets cut fees. Excluding some items, profit was 68 cents a share, below the average analyst estimate of 99 cents. Asset values declined by $80.5 billion in the quarter.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. declined 16 cents to $50.30. The world’s biggest retailer and the fifth-best performing stock in the S&P 500 last year, was cut to “neutral” from “outperform” at Credit Suisse Group AG, which said “waning inflation and slowing square footage growth should pressure sales growth.”

Forest Laboratories Inc. fell 4.2 percent to $24.45. Goldman Sachs downgraded the drugmaker to “sell” from “neutral.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net. Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net




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President Obama Fails To Inspire Markets

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | Jan 21 09 09:39 GMT |

Market Brief

The Usd corrected slightly in the Asian Session from yesterday's strong rally on risk aversion. The EurUsd traded up from 1.2850 to 1.3019, while the UsdJpy traded down to a low of 89.69. Markets remain highly volatile and developments are coming fast and furious. The Sterling was punished yesterday, as the governments bailouts continued and rumors swirled regarding S&P downgrading of UK country debt, trading from 1.4512 down to 1.38915 (8-year low). In addition, there newswire reports of potential nationalizations of Irish and UK banks. Not even the positive sentiment from President Obama inauguration could offset the negative tone across markets. US equity markets fell sharply, with the S&P closing down by -5.28% (worst performance ever for an Inauguration Day) as concerns over the banking system spilled over. The gloomy feel has carried over to today's trading, with Asian regional indexes all lower and European stock futures pointing to a lower opening. In this context, we expect safe haven trades, such as the Usd, Jpy and Chf to outperform.

Yesterday, the BoC cut its interest rates by 50bp to a 50-year low of 1.00%, as was expected. The central bank signaled that additional easing was highly probable, but stated that events would be monitored attentively 'to what extent further monetary stimulus may be required'. We expect CAD to remain under pressure and forecast a move to 1.30 mid- term.

Tuesday releases showed a slight rise in German ZEW index in January, with the headline economic expectations index rising from -45.2 to -31.0. This tick up suggests that the newly announced fiscal support has provided a glimmer of hope. However, we need to take this figure with a bit of skepticism since the ZEW expectations index has failed to be a reliable gauge of German GDP growth in the past. The more accurate indicator, the IFO index, has continued to collapse.

Today, New Zealand retail sales came out better than market expectations. The headline retail sales were flat in November, while ex-auto retail sales were higher 0.3% m/m. We expect the RBNZ will slash rates by 100bp at their meeting next week, since the slight bounce in core retail sales was due to rising food prices and not the result of stronger demand.

In Asia, Singapore's 2009 GDP growth forecast revised to a scary -5% to -2% after +1.7% growth in 2008.

In this light calendar day, European trading will be focused on the UK November's unemployment and public sector net borrowing data. Unemployment is starting to mount at a worrisome pace, but all indications are that the worst is yet to come. With claimant count jumping by 75k in Nov and GDP falling to 1% in Q4 there is little doubt deterioration in the labor markets will continue. Public finances have gone from bad to terrible and that's not what debt holders want to hear right now. We expect the Sterling to continue to come under significant selling pressure

ACM FOREX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.




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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by HY Markets | Jan 21 09 09:21 GMT |

EUR/USD closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it extends last week's decline, fib support crossing is the next downside target.

USD/JPY closed lower on Monday as it extends some of last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term bottom might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. If it extends last week's decline, December's low crossing is the next downside target.

GBP/USD closed sharply lower on Monday and remains below the 10-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it renews last week's decline, December's low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that short-term low has been posted.

USD/CHF closed sharply higher on Monday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this month's rally, broken support crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook in the market.

HY Markets
http://www.hymarkets.com





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Forex Technical Analytics

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FOREX Ltd | Jan 21 09 08:28 GMT |

CHF

The pre-planned breakout variant for buyers was realized with overlap of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked formation of reverse bearish signal by further sells activity rise gives reasons for assumptions about further rate correction period but with preservation of long-term outlooks of bullish planning direction. Hence at the moment we assume the possibility of rate return to close 1.1460/80 resistance range, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.1400/20, 1.1360/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.1300/20, 1.1240/60, 1.1180/1.1200. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.1520 with targets 1.1580/1.1600, 1.1700/20, 1.1780/1.1800.

GBP

The pre-planned breakout variant for sells was realized with attainment of basic assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, as a result of the previous day having marked pair oversold and bullish resistance progress gives reasons for assumptions about possible rate correction period but with preservation of bearish direction of planning priority for today. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to close channel signal at 1.4000/40, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3910/30, 1.3840/60, 1.3780/1.3800 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3710/30,.1.3580/1.3620, 1.3490/1.3520. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.4160 with targets 1.4200/20, 1.4300/40, 1.4500/60.

JPY

The pre-planned positions for sell from key resistance range were realized with attainment of basic assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked relative bearish activity rise gives reasons for supporting this direction of planning trading operations for today. Hence at the moment without signs of short-term bullish cycle incompleteness we assume the possibility of rate return to close 90.00/20 resistance range, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 89.40/60, 88.80/89.00, 88.40/50 and/or further breakout variant up to 87.80/88.00, 87.20/40. An alternative for buyers will be above 90.60 with targets 91.00/20, 91.80/92.00, and 92.40/60

EUR

The pre-planned breakout variant for sells was realized but with damage of several points in attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked sign of pair oversold by further relative buying activity rise gives reasons for assumptions about further rate correction period but with preservation of bearish planning priority in more long-term outlook. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to 1.2880/1.2900 resistance range, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.2960/80, 1.3040/60, 1.3100/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3160/80, 1.3240/60, 1.3380/1.3420. An alternative for sells will be below 1.2800 with targets 1.2720/40, 1.2640/60, 1.2580/1.2600.

FOREX Ltd
www.forexltd.co.uk




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Daily FX Report

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Varengold Bank | Jan 21 09 08:25 GMT |

Good morning from beautiful Hamburg. Barack Obama is the new president of the United States of America. There were more than one million 'fans' at his inauguration in Washington yesterday. Obama promised $825 billion to revive the world's biggest economy. His plan would provide tax cuts of about $275 billion, including a $1000 payroll tax cut for families.

Markets review

The EUR/USD recovered from earlier losses on Wednesday, but concerns persisted over losses in the U.K. banking sector and a deepening recession in the euro zone. Geithner, the 9th president of the Federal reserve Bank of New York pledged to 'reform' the U.S. government's $700 billion bailout program, saying 'the ultimate costs of this crisis will be greater' if adequate steps are not taken now. The EUR/USD rose to 1.2981 from its earlier low at 1.2845, which was the lowest level since December 9th. The EUR/GBP rose from 0.9262 to 0.9293. The GBP/USD climbed to a short-term high of 1.3968, after touching the lowest level since 2001 at 1.3811. The EUR/JPY rose to 116.72, after touching the 115.30 level, which was the lowest level since October 28th.


The AUD slid 1.5 % to 85.91 against the JPY in Asia trading session. According to a forecast the JPY could strengthen to 84.00 against the USD and to 105.00 against the EUR in three months. Benchmark interest rates are 4.25 % in Australia and 5.00 % in New Zealand, compared with 0.1 % in Japan. Investors could start to make carry trades and borrow the JPY to buy higheryielding assets elsewhere.

Technical analysis

EUR/JPY

Since the middle of October the EUR/JPY has been trading in a horizontal trend channel. After touching the 115.00 support line twice the market started to move in a semi circle format up to 130.00 and is now back again on the support level. If the pair doesn't break the 115.00 support it could show a recovery towards the resistance again.

EUR/GBP

Since the beginning of November the EUR/GBP has been moving in Fibonacci retracement lines. After the pair started to fall at the beginning of the year from its high, it touched the 50% retracement twice and pulled back to the 76.4 % resistance level. If the market crosses the 76.4 % retracement line clearly it could rise further towards the 100 % line.

Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events

Varengold Bank

IMPORTANT NOTIFICATION TO BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CONTENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT

This document is issued and approved by Varengold WPH Bank AG. The document is only intended for market counterparties and intermediate customers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on the information set out within the document. It may not be reproduced or further distributed, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Due to international laws/regulations not all financial instruments/services may be available to all clients. You should have informed yourself about and observe any such restrictions when considering a potential investment decision. This electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only and may contain confidential, non public and/or privileged information. If you have received this electronic communication in error, please advise the sender immediately, and delete it from your system (if permitted by law). Varengold does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial product. This communication is for informational urposes only. Any market or other views expressed herein are those of the sender only as of the date indicated and not of Varengold. Varengold reserves the right to consider any order sent electronically as not received unless it is confirmed verbally or through other means.




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Thai Exports Falls for Second Month as Demand Wanes

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s exports contracted for a second consecutive month in December as slowing growth in the nation’s biggest markets eroded demand for agricultural products, electronics and automobiles.

Shipments fell 14.6 percent from a year earlier to $11.6 billion, Permanent Secretary for Commerce Siripol Yodmuangcharoen said in Bangkok today. Exports declined a revised 20.5 percent in November, the biggest slide in at least 17 years.

“Exporters are getting fewer orders and some of them are beginning to cut jobs,” said Pramon Sutivong, chairman of Thai Chamber of Commerce. “It will be a drag on the whole economy.”

The global economic slump is reducing demand for products shipped from Thailand by Toyota Motor Corp., Seagate Technology Inc. and Charoen Pokphand Foods Pcl. Southeast Asia’s second- largest economy may enter its first recession in a decade this quarter as exports slump and local consumption remains muted after months of political turmoil.

Toyota, Thailand’s biggest automaker, said Jan. 14 that its shipments to more than 100 countries will be affected by the global slowdown. Seagate, the world’s biggest maker of hard-disk drives, a day later said it’s cutting 6 percent of jobs worldwide, including in Thailand. Charoen Pokphand, the nation’s biggest meat producer, predicts slower sales growth this year as frozen chicken demand falls.

U.S., China

Exports to the U.S. declined 19 percent in December. Shipments to Europe dropped 16 percent, and exports to China contracted 40 percent, according to a ministry statement.

“We may face a contraction in exports during the first half,” Siripol said. “ We hope that we can be at least flat for the whole year.”

Shipments grew 15.6 percent in 2008, Siripol said.

Imports contracted for the first time since May 2002 in December, falling 6.5 percent after a 2 percent gain a month earlier and trimming 2008 import-growth to 27.6 percent.

The trade surplus in December was $350 million, from a $1.2 billion shortfall a month earlier. For the year, the shortfall was $812 million.

Thailand’s economy may grow 2 percent this year if a 300 billion-baht ($8.58 billion) government spending plan and tax cuts pay off, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Jan. 15. The pace would be the slowest in 11 years.

To contact the reporter on this story: Suttinee Yuvejwattana in Bangkok at Suttinee1@bloomberg.net





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English Says New Zealand Dollar at Level That Assists Exporters

By Tracy Withers

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s dollar has declined to levels that should benefit the nation’s exporters when global markets and prices recover later this year, said Finance Minister Bill English.

The currency has slumped 30 percent in the past year, the second-worst performing major currency after South Korea’s won, according to Bloomberg data, as the New Zealand economy sank into its first recession in a decade. The local currency fell to 51.69 U.S. cents today, close to the lowest level in six years.

New Zealand’s dollar climbed to a 23-year high of 82.13 cents in February last year, hindering the nation’s export industry that has annual sales equivalent to 30 percent of the $130 billion economy. Companies including manufacturer Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd. responded by closing factories and shifting operations overseas because the currency’s surge made locally produced goods less competitive in foreign markets.

“In the long run, 80 cents makes it difficult to get the adjustment New Zealand needs of pushing resources into the export sector,” English, 47, said today in an interview at his office in Wellington’s Beehive parliament buildings. “At 55 cents that’s much more likely, as we come out of a recession.”

He declined to provide forecasts for the New Zealand dollar or say what level the government wants it to be.

English, who became the finance head after his National Party won a Nov. 8 election that ended nine years of Labour Party rule, also said the central bank has room to cut interest rates to support an economy that shrank 0.4 percent in the third quarter.

Export Boost

The government wants to bolster overseas sales of meat, butter and wool as it seeks to make the economy become less dependent on domestic consumption, he said.

An over-reliance on consumption has boosted debt levels and increased demand for imported goods, helping swell the current- account deficit to 8.6 percent of gross domestic product in the year ended Sept. 30. By comparison, the U.S. shortfall is 4.8 percent of GDP.

Last week, Standard & Poor’s revised the outlook on the country’s AA+ credit rating to negative from stable, citing concern over the nation’s growing external liabilities.

“With a country that has got a high current-account deficit and growing public debt, there’s a risk that if we start being seen by debt markets as a risk you can get an exchange-rate drop which will drop everyone’s living standards,” English said. “That’s one of the risks if we get it wrong.”

The government is balancing a requirement to keep its debt levels under control against the need to stimulate the economy, which began contracting in the first quarter of 2008.

‘Rating at Risk’

The S&P statement was “a warning that significant stimulus puts our credit rating at risk,” English said. “That’s something we take heed of.”

The government will cut income taxes in April following reductions under the previous administration in October. It also plans to bring forward spending on infrastructure projects including roads, schools and housing.

As well, the Reserve Bank probably will lower interest rates further, English said. Governor Alan Bollard has reduced the official cash rate by 3.25 percentage points since July. He will cut the benchmark by a further 1 percentage point to 4 percent at the next review on Jan. 29, according to all eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“I would agree with the governor’s statements that the Reserve Bank has more room to move on rates than most other central banks,” English said. He declined to comment on where he would like rates to go.

‘Decisive Action’

Bollard makes his decision on interest rates independently of the government.

English expects lower borrowing costs and the existing government programs will steer the economy out of recession later this year. The Treasury Department last week forecast the economy will stagnate in 2009.

“Over the next months, you’ve got the Reserve Bank probably taking decisive action on interest rates, you’ve got tax cuts in April and an infrastructure-spending program to get up and running,” he said. “We believe for now that’s the right balance of further stimulus and debt buildup.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Tracy Withers in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net.





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King Says BOE Asset Buying May Start Soon Amid Slump

By Brian Swint

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said officials may start buying assets within weeks to loosen credit markets as the lowest interest rates since 1694 fail to avert a “marked” recession.

The U.K. central bank may acquire securities such as corporate bonds and commercial paper to bolster lending to companies and consumers as banks rebuild balance sheets damaged by the global financial crisis, King said yesterday. He said interest-rate reductions to the current 1.5 percent won’t prevent a contraction in the first half of the year.

“Despite those big cuts, there remains a risk that inflation will fall below 2 percent,” the target rate, King said in a speech in Nottingham, England. “It is sensible for the Monetary Policy Committee to prepare for the possibility --and I stress that we are not there yet -- that it may need to move beyond the conventional instrument” of the bank’s benchmark interest rate.

King backed Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s plan to give the Bank of England unprecedented powers to buy securities, unveiled on Jan. 19 along with a 100-billion pound ($140 billion) bailout for banks. Those tools may later be expanded to fight deflation as the British economy faces a recession this year that may be the worst since the aftermath of World War II.

“This is a momentous speech that sets the policy agenda for the next decade,” said Lena Komileva, an economist at Tullett Prebon in London. “More rate cuts are likely but before long, the Bank of England may reach the point of using quantitative easing to target inflation, in effect to prevent deflation.”

Pound, Oil Prices

The pound today fell to a record low against the yen and the weakest since 2001 versus the dollar on concern the U.K. slump will deepen and the central bank will ease monetary policy further. As of 8:36 a.m. in London, the currency was at 123.24 yen from 125.01 yen late in New York yesterday. It declined to $1.3748 from $1.3928.

“Since the summer, the exchange rate has fallen by almost 20 percent, and oil prices have fallen by around two-thirds, both of which will boost demand,” King said in the speech.

“A pronounced contraction in spending and output is under way,” King said. “Total output in the fourth quarter is expected to have fallen sharply. In the first half of this year, the rate of contraction is likely to continue to be marked.”

The inflation rate declined to 3.1 percent in December from 4.1 percent the month before, the biggest drop since records began in 1997. The economy may shrink 2.7 percent this year, the most since 1946, the Ernst & Young Item Club said this week.

‘Almost Ready’

“The bank is almost ready, but very willing, to engage in unconventional monetary policy techniques,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities in London. “There is still some room for interest rates to come down. But there’s a good chance they’ll use this facility.”

Commercial banks still need to pay down their debts to put their balance sheets in order, King said. “Leverage ratios of large banks remain at remarkably high levels, and the required adjustment will not happen quickly,” he said.

The Treasury said that the central bank can make asset purchases of up to 50 billion pounds and the government will indemnify the bank against any losses, starting on Feb. 2. King said officials “will consider purchasing only high-quality assets” and that any such actions would seek “to complement and stimulate private demand, not substitute for it.”

“In each case the bank will keep the market fully informed,” King said. “It will be a matter of weeks not days before a program of purchases can begin, but it will be weeks and not months.”

Fed Purchases

Any purchases by the Bank of England would follow similar moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has started buying securities after cutting its benchmark interest rate to a target range of zero to 0.25 percent.

Policy makers will watch measures of lending to non- financial companies to gauge how well the asset purchases and the government’s capital injections and loan guarantees are working, King said.

The measures “are not designed to protect the banks,” King said. “They are designed to protect the economy from the banks.”

The economy may still take some time to recover, he said. “The lags in economic policy are notoriously long and unpredictable. But well-designed policies implemented within a consistent policy framework will eventually work.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net.





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Singapore May Boost Spending as Economy Contracts

By Shamim Adam and Chen Shiyin

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore said its economy may shrink an unprecedented 5 percent this year, fanning speculation the government will announce record spending in its budget tomorrow to help companies hurt by the global recession.

Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam may outlay as much as S$20 billion ($13.3 billion), or 8 percent of gross domestic product, to help households and businesses survive the slump, Macquarie Capital Securities predicts. The government may also tap into its reserves for the first time to fund the expenditure.

Singapore is going through its sharpest recession and may experience the deepest deflation since 1986 this year, the government said today. Falling demand has forced companies such as DBS Group Holdings Ltd. and Stats Chippac Ltd. to fire workers, and Credit Suisse Group predicts as many as 300,000 jobs may be lost by the end of 2010.

“All the government can do is to ensure that citizens and businesses cope with the recession because it’s not possible to counteract the drop in external demand,” said Chow Penn Nee, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “The situation may start to improve only in the fourth quarter.”

The Singapore dollar gained 0.3 percent versus its U.S. counterpart to S$1.5028 as at 3:18 p.m. local time, after the central bank said there’s no reason for the currency to continue weakening, with wage and fiscal measures “more appropriate” to help companies cut costs.

‘Policy Intact’

“Our monetary policy stance remains intact,” Ong Chong Tee, deputy managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said today. “This current slowdown reflects the sharp decline in the external environment and not an erosion of competitiveness and therefore there is no reason for any persistent weakening in the Singapore dollar.”

The currency, which has fallen 3.9 percent this year, earlier fell as much as 0.3 percent after the government said gross domestic product may shrink 2 percent to 5 percent this year, cutting its economic forecast for the second time in less than three weeks.

The economy declined an annualized 16.9 percent last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking a revised 5.1 percent between July and September, the trade ministry said today. The contraction in the fourth quarter was worse than a Jan. 2 estimate of 12.5 percent.

The Southeast Asian economy has contracted for three straight quarters, sliding into recession along with Japan, Hong Kong and New Zealand. The likelihood of a sharp rebound in growth “appears low,” Ravi Menon, an official at the trade ministry, told reporters in Singapore today.

‘Tough Year’

The economy grew 1.2 percent last year, less than earlier estimated. A decline of 5 percent this year would be the worst since the nation gained independence in 1965, according to Bloomberg data.

“2009 will definitely be a tough year for Singapore and most of export-oriented Asia,” said Manpreet Gill, a strategist at Barclays Wealth in Singapore. “In Asia, I won’t expect a sharp recovery. It will be a bit more drawn out.”

More than 10,000 people were retrenched last year and a worsening economy may result in job losses tripling in 2009, reaching numbers not seen since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, the government said this week.

Consumer prices may fall as much as 1 percent or stay unchanged this year, the government said today. The lower end of that forecast would be the biggest decline in prices since a 1.4 percent drop in 1986.

Manufacturing

“The economic downturn has spread to all the key sectors of the economy,” Trade Minister Lim Hng Kiang said Jan. 19. “Our manufacturing sector is likely to continue facing a slowdown this year.”

Manufacturing, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, fell a revised 10.7 percent in the three months ended December from a year earlier, and shrank 4.1 percent in 2008, the trade ministry said.

Overseas shipments may drop 9 percent to 11 percent in 2009, the government said today, which would be the worst performance since 2001.

“Most of our members feel that they’ll be hit a lot harder this year than last quarter, particularly in the first quarter,” Renny Yeo, president of the Singapore Manufacturing Federation, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “This situation calls for multiple assistance schemes on various fronts” from the government.

Help for Business

Businesses will get help with rental and wage bills, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Dec. 31. The government in November said it will extend more loans to local companies and spend S$600 million over the next two years on worker training.

The government may consider dipping into the country’s financial reserves to fund its spending programs this time, after refraining from doing so when it ran deficits previously, Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong said this month.

Measures to help citizens survive the recession may include as much as S$7.5 billion of cash handouts, tax and utility rebates, said Selena Ling, head of treasury research at Oversea- -Chinese Banking Corp.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net





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